It may be a small correction, but it is far from negligible as far as forest ecologists and carbon cycle specialists are concerned. The error lay in a formula established almost 50 years ago (in 1971) for calculating basic wood density. Given that basic density is used to assess the amount of carbon stored in a tree, the fact that the formula had to be corrected meant that forest carbon stocks may have been overestimated by 4 to 5%.

“This new formula should enable us to determine more accurately the role of forests in the carbon cycle and the impact of deforestation on climate change,” said Ghislain Vieilledent, an ecologist with CIRAD who was the corresponding author of the work published in the journal American Journal of Botany on 16 October.

For more than 70 years, CIRAD has had a database on 1300 wood species and almost 4500 trees. It was when they came to promote this resource that Ghislain Vieilledent and his colleagues at CIRAD and at Paul Sabatier University in Toulouse discovered an incoherence in a conversion factor: the one used to compute the basic density of a tree based on wood density at 12% moisture, which corresponds to the average wood moisture content in temperate regions. Since this technical characteristic is widely available in wood technology databases, ecologists only have to apply a conversion factor to it in order to establish the basic density of a tree species. However, it was precisely that conversion factor that did not tally with the researchers’ new calculations.

“To start with, I thought we had made a mistake in our calculations or that there was some uncertainty surrounding measurement of the relevant data. It was not easy to cast doubt on a formula that had been widely accepted for years and quoted in several scientific articles.”

The researchers took a new look at the data in CIRAD’s historic database in order to determine a new formula for establishing basic density based on density at 12%. The new conversion factor will be used to calculate the basic density of woods in forest ecology databases. In particular, it will serve to update the global wood density database on which Jérôme Chave and Fabian Fischer are working at CNRS-Paul Sabatier University in Toulouse, who were co-authors of the publication. The correction will make it possible to estimate carbon forest stocks more accurately and understand more clearly the role played by forests in climate regulation.

At first glance, Down syndrome (DS) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD), two severe brain abnormalities, may seem to have little in common. Down syndrome is a hereditary disease, the source of which has long been recognized–a triplication of chromosome 21. By contrast, the overwhelming majority of Alzheimer’s cases (over 95 percent), do not have a clear-cut genetic source. Instead, the disease, which usually becomes clinically apparent late in life, is caused by a perplexing constellation of factors. While these have been the focus of intense study for over 100 years, few conclusive answers have come to light.

In new research, Antonella Caccamo and her colleagues explore a number of critical factors that appear to link the two illnesses. The current project will use DS as a window into the underlying mechanisms that may give rise to Alzheimer’s pathology. Using this complementary approach, her $3.1 million NIH grant will explore the effects of a critical protein complex known as mTOR.

In the healthy brain, mTOR is involved in a range of essential physiological processes. mTOR is a regulator of protein synthesis and degradation. It plays a critical role in cell growth, longevity and the formation of the cytoskeleton, which provides living cells with their shape and structure, and mTOR is vital to maintaining the proper energy balance in many tissues throughout the body. mTOR is also implicated in synaptic plasticity, neuronal recovery and the retention of memory.

Caccamo is a researcher in the ASU-Banner Neurodegenerative Disease Research Center. Much of her research focuses on investigating Down syndrome molecular alterations in the brain in order to shed new light on Alzheimer’s disease.

“The ultimate goal of my research is to identify novel and clinically translatable targets, thus aiding in the development of new treatments for AD,” Caccamo says.

Learning from mTOR

Disruption of the mTOR pathway has been implicated in diseases including cancer, obesity and cardiovascular disease. Dysregulation of mTOR also plays an important role in diabetes and aging, two known risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease. Irregularities in mTOR functioning are linked to other neurodegenerative diseases and have been shown to give rise to two distinct neuropathologies: depositions in the brain of plaques composed of the protein amyloid beta (Aβ), and accumulations of another protein– known as tau–which aggregates within neuronal cell bodies, forming neurofibrillary tangles.

Plaques and tangles are the classic hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. Intriguingly, they also occur in the brains of virtually all patients with Down syndrome, some 60 percent of whom go on to develop Alzheimer’s disease by age 60. Interestingly, APP (amyloid precursor protein), a protein that when cleaved generates beta amyloid (Aβ), the toxic protein that accumulates in AD and DS brains, is located on chromosome 21, the same chromosome that is triplicated in Down syndrome.

Could disruption of the vital mTOR pathway offer clues to the development of plaques and tangles and the onset of dementia in both DS and AD patients? Is mTOR dysregulation also linked with a particular form of cell death known as necroptosis, likewise implicated in AD and DS pathology? Most importantly, can the investigation of the molecular drivers of AD pathology in DS patients provide a new window into the early mechanisms underlying the development of sporadic Alzheimer’s, the form of the disease that commonly strikes aging adults? These are some of the important questions Caccamo’s new study intends to address.

Relentless scourge

Alzheimer’s disease remains the only leading killer lacking any means of treatment, prevention or cure. The disease is pitiless in its systematic destruction of brain functioning, wiping memories clean and robbing the brain of its essential capacities, ultimately resulting in death–typically within 8-10 years of clinical diagnosis, though in some cases, Alzheimer’s can drag on for as long as 20 years. The emotional toll on patients, caregivers and society is immense and rapidly mounting.

Additionally, the staggering economic burden currently figures in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the US alone and is projected to top $1 trillion by 2050. The need for viable treatments and preventive strategies could not be more acute.

Today, researchers know that the onset of Alzheimer’s begins decades before its telltale signs become apparent. Some have gone so far as to say that while AD is usually thought of as a disease of old age, it may also be associated with adolescence when the early signposts of the disease are planted in the seemingly healthy brain. Many in the field believe that the best hope for arresting the ominous trajectory of the disease lies in identifying causal mechanisms at the earliest stage, and developing effective means of intervention before the brain is irreparably damaged.

Caccamo believes that mTOR dysregulation may be one such early mechanism, giving rise to AD pathology in aging adults as well as DS patients. Research has demonstrated that mTOR is hyperactive in specific brain regions in both AD and DS patients. mTOR hyperactivity is further associated with tau pathology as well as low levels of TSC2, a critical gene product that is believed to keep mTOR hyperactivity in check. Finally, preliminary data from Caccamo’s research indicates that cell loss in DS patients results in part from necroptosis, a unique form of cell suicide linked with dysregulation of mTOR.

This combination of factors has led to the central hypothesis of the new study: Dysfunction of the TSC2 complex causes an increase in mTOR activity in DS, leading to AD-like neurodegeneration by inducing necroptosis.

Streams and tributaries of Alzheimer’s pathology

Caccamo’s new project, entitled “Identify common mechanisms of neurodegeneration between Alzheimer’s disease and Down syndrome,” addresses these issues on several fronts. The first aim of the project is to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying mTOR hyperactivity in DS. Here, the association of dysfunctional TSC2 with mTOR hyperactivity is explored. What might be causing the downregulation of TSC2 leading to mTOR hyperactivity? Three possibilities are experimentally probed: the presence of epigenetic changes in TSC2 and mTOR, alteration of the turnover rate of the TSC2 protein and newly detected proteins that may likewise contribute to destabilizing the delicate TSC2/mTOR axis.

The second aim of the study is to determine the role of hyperactive mTOR in the development of AD-like phenomena in DS. Here, the hypothesis of hyperactive mTOR leading to AD pathologies, particularly Aβ plaques and neurofibrillary tangles, is explored using Ts65Dn mice, a genetic model of Down syndrome. Caccamo’s preliminary results show that mTOR hyperactivity precedes an increase in Aβ and tau levels and degeneration of cholinergic neurons in mice. By subtly increasing or decreasing mTOR signaling, the study will test the effects of reducing mTOR on Aβ and tau levels as well as degeneration of neurons in the mice. Further, increased mTOR levels will be examined to see if such changes increase AD-like pathology and cognitive deficits. Finally, the study will identify additional proteins falling under the regulation of hyperactive mTOR in DS.

Although the death of nerve cells in both Alzheimer’s and DS brains is a well-recognized occurrence associated with impaired cognitive ability, the mechanisms leading to cell death are still not well understood. The third aim of the new study will be to examine how mTOR hyperactivity contributes to neuronal loss. Earlier work by Caccamo and others suggests that a form of programmed cell death known as necroptosis contributes to the neurodegeneration typically observed in AD brains.

The third phase of the new study will investigate the hypothesis that hyperactive mTOR helps set this neurodegeneration process in motion by activating necroptosis pathways in the brain. Systematically modulating mTOR activity and necroptosis signaling in mouse neurons will be used to test this hypothesis. In addition to improving the understanding of the mechanisms leading to cell death in DS and AD, the research will help elucidate possible therapeutic targets for these two tragic afflictions.

Researchers have much to learn from in-depth studies like these, which delve into mTOR’s profound influence on the brain, in sickness and in health. In addition to its relevance in neurodegenerative disease, mTOR’s crucial role in the aging process may shed new light on other foundational issues in neuroscience.

he Big Bang has captured our imagination like no other theory in science: the magnificent, explosive birth of our Universe. But do you know what came next?

Around 100 million years of darkness.

When the cosmos eventually lit up its very first stars, they were bigger and brighter than any that have followed. They shone with UV light so intense, it turned the surrounding atoms into ions. The Cosmic Dawn – from the first star to the completion of this ‘cosmic reionization’, lasted roughly one billion years.

“Where did these stars come from? And how did they become the galaxies – the Universe teeming with radiation and plasma – that we see today? These are our driving questions,” said Professor Michael Norman, Director of the San Diego Supercomputer Center and lead author of a new review published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences.

The Universe in a Box

Researchers like Professor Norman solve mathematical equations in a cubic virtual universe.

“We have spent over 20 years using and refining this software, to better understand the Cosmic Dawn.”

To start, code was created which allowed formation of the first stars in the universe to be modeled. These equations describe the movement and chemical reactions inside gas clouds in a universe before light, and the immense gravitational pull of a much larger but invisible mass of mysterious dark matter.

“These clouds of pure hydrogen and helium collapsed under gravity to ignite single, massive stars – hundreds of times heavier than our Sun,” explains Norman.

The very first heavy elements formed in the pressure-cooker cores of the first stars: just a smidgen of lithium and beryllium. But with the death of these short-lived giants – collapsing and exploding into dazzling supernovae – metals as heavy as iron were created in abundance and sprayed into space.

Equations were added to the virtual Universe to model enrichment of gas clouds with these newly formed metals – which drove formation of a new type of star.

“The transition was rapid: within 30 million years, virtually all new stars were metal-enriched.”

This is despite the fact that chemical enrichment was local and slow, leaving more than 80% of the virtual Universe metal-free by the end of the simulation.

“Formation of metal-free giant stars did not stop entirely – small galaxies of these stars should exist where there is enough dark matter to cool pristine clouds of hydrogen and helium.

“But without this huge gravitational pull, the intense radiation from existing stars heats gas clouds and tears apart their molecules. So in most cases, the metal-free gas collapses entirely to form a single, supermassive black hole.”

From stars to galaxies

“The new generations of stars that formed in galaxies are smaller and far more numerous, because of the chemical reactions made possible with metals,” Norman observes.

The increased number of reactions in gas clouds allowed them to fragment and form multiple stars via ‘metal line cooling’: tracts of decreased gas density, where combining elements gain room to radiate their energy into space – instead of each other.

At this stage we have the first objects in the universe that can rightfully be called galaxies: a combination of dark matter, metal-enriched gas, and stars.

“The first galaxies are smaller than expected because intense radiation from young, massive stars drives dense gas away from star-forming regions.

“In turn, radiation from the very smallest galaxies contributed significantly to cosmic reionization.”

These hard-to-detect but numerous galaxies can therefore account for the predicted end date of the Cosmic Dawn – i.e., when cosmic reionization was complete.

Thinking outside the box

Norman and colleagues explain how some groups are overcoming computing limitations in these numerical simulations by importing their ready-made results, or by simplifying parts of a model less relevant to the outcomes of interest.

“These semi-analytical methods have been used to more accurately determine how long massive metal-free early stars were being created, how many should still be observable, and the contribution of these – as well as black holes and metal-enriched stars – to cosmic reionization.”

The authors also highlight areas of uncertainty that will drive a new generation of simulations, using new codes, on future high-performance computing platforms.

“These will help us to understand the role of magnetic fields, X-rays and space dust in gas cooling, and the identity and behavior of the mysterious dark matter that drives star formation.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has long been among the most vehement advocates of foreign intervention in the United States Senate, supporting US interventions for “regime changes” across the world.

Now Saudi Arabia has joined the list of countries where Graham has demanded regime change. Interviewed Tuesday morning at the Fox News show Fox & Friends, Graham declared that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “has got to go.”

While proclaiming in the interview that he has been Saudi Arabia’s “biggest defender on the floor of the United States Senate,” Graham says that bin Salman is “toxic” and a “wrecking ball” and had Jamal Khashoggi “murdered in a consulate in Turkey” earlier this month.

So long as bin Salman is in charge in Saudi Arabia, Graham promises to refuse or “do business with” or visit Saudi Arabia. Graham also says in the interview that he will be pushing to “sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia.”

Watch Graham’s interview here:

Ron Paul Institute Chairman Ron Paul has a very different take on Saudi Arabia and its leader bin Salman.

Interviewed Monday at Fox Business, Paul applied his consistent noninterventionist approach, declaring that the “proper policy” for the US government is neither to punish nor aid Saudi Arabia. Sanctions or other punishment imposed by the US are not justified, says Paul.

Paul also declares in the interview, as he has often declared before, his opposition to the US policies of being “a close ally with Saudi Arabia” and providing military aid to Saudi Arabia for its ongoing war on Yemen — policies Graham has supported.

Watch Paul’s interview here:

This article was published by RonPaul Institute

By Jim Garamone

There is no room for complacency in the fight against violent extremist organizations, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told his worldwide counterparts.

Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford welcomed chiefs of defense from 82 nations to the third Counter Violent Extremist Organizations conference. “We are here today to have a candid exchange of views, and find ways to enhance our effectiveness in dealing with violent extremism,” he said.

Extremism Affects Everyone

All involved realize that violent extremism is a transregional threat that affects the security of all nations, the chairman said in his introductory remarks. “I think we all recognize that violent extremism is a generational challenge that demands we develop solutions that are politically, fiscally and militarily sustainable,” he said.

The chiefs also recognize that defeating transregional extremist organizations requires a broad network of like-minded nations to share intelligence, information and best practices, Dunford said. The chiefs also agree there are times for collective or cooperative action, he said.

“Most importantly, while we recognize that combating violent extremism requires a whole-of-government approach, we also appreciate the military dimension of the challenge and the unique role the chiefs of defense have in influencing, developing and implementing comprehensive solutions,” the chairman said.

Each chief, he stressed, brings a unique perspective to the challenge, influenced by geography, neighbors, political and legal systems and more.

Cooperation Supports Progress

Dunford detailed the progress against violent extremism so far — and it has been extensive, he said. “Our progress has been enabled by improved information sharing in military, intelligence and law enforcement channels,” the chairman said. He noted that Operation Gallant Phoenix — an information-sharing effort — has grown from fewer than 20 people representing two nations, to more than 250 people representing 25 nations. “This initiative has contributed an impressive number of disrupted attacks, arrests and prosecutions,” Dunford said. “In addition to Operation Gallant Phoenix, there are complementary issues that are being developed in a number of regions to include West Africa and Southeast Asia.”

The effort against violent extremists has also disrupted the flow of foreign fighters, slowed resources going to terror groups and cut into the narrative that ideologies like the one the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria espouses is successful.

This must continue, he said, as it is the long-term solution to extremism.

Attacks Down

The chairman noted that 2017 marked the third consecutive year in the decline of terrorist attacks and deaths worldwide. “The progress against ISIS has been particularly encouraging,” he said. “In 2017, compared to 2016, global ISIS attacks were down 23 percent. The lethality of external ISIS attacks have also declined. In 2015 ISIS averaged 25 killed per attack. In 2018, the average number killed was three.”

In Iraq and Syria, ISIS holds 2 percent of the territory that they held in 2014 and their access to resources has been greatly reduced, Dunford said. The flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria has been reduced to about 100 per month from a high of about 1500 per month. In addition, many ISIS experts have been killed including external operation leaders and facilitators.

ISIS media production has fallen by more than 85 percent and its monthly publication hasn’t been produced in over a year.

“But I think we are all realists in this room that despite recent successes against ISIS and the positive trends, we know there is actually much work to be done,” the chairman said.

Underlying Conditions

Little has been done to address the underlying conditions that lead to violent extremism, he said. Challenges remain cooperation politically, militarily, in intelligence and in law enforcement.

ISIS itself is far from defeated, Dunford said, and has a presence in countries from West Africa to Southeast Asia. The group continues to search for areas to grow, and they are redoubling efforts in cyberspace to inspire homegrown violent extremists. “We saw that last year in the United Kingdom, Spain, Egypt, the Philippines and the United States,” the chairman said.

Coalition forces are clearing ISIS from its last territories in Iraq and Syria, but ISIS “is already evolving to implement a more diffuse model of command and control and operations, And they are looking to maintain relevance by exploiting disenfranchisement and conducting high profile attacks,” he said.

Greatest Danger is Complacency

Al-Qaida is not dead yet, either, and that group is looking to enhance collaboration with its affiliates and increasing its connectivity and access to operatives and targets, Dunford said.

“In short, ISIS, al-Qaida and associated groups remain resilient, determined and adaptable,” he said. “While some areas of sanctuary have been reduced, both groups are operating in a more dispersed and clandestine way, leveraging the internet to keep their narrative alive and becoming less susceptible to conventional military action.”

The greatest danger is complacency, the chairman said. “A misreading of our progress to date and a misunderstanding of the character of the threat may cause political leaders to lose focus on violent extremism while they turn to other pressing challenges,” he said. “I believe those of us gathered today have a good appreciation for the consequences of prematurely relieving pressure on the enemy and allowing them the space to reconstitute.”

The general also believes that it is a generational threat, and that the efforts of the last 18 years must continue. “In many ways, the threat we face today is more virulent, and it has become more difficult to detect and disrupt plots,” Dunford said.

Looking Ahead

Intelligence professionals are looking ahead trying to fathom the threat from violent extremism in the next decades, he said.

“The character of the threat will be affected by how we address conflicts in places like Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, Chad, Mali and the Philippines,” the chairman said. “As we discussed in our previous gatherings, how we win the peace is most important. Our collective success in stabilizing, reconstructing, and implementing effective governance will determine the size and scope of the future extremist threat.”

How nations identify, prosecute, de-radicalize and reintegrate foreign fighters will also help determine how violent extremism develops — or doesn’t develop — in the future, Dunford said.“One example of the challenge of prosecuting foreign fighters is the situation in Syria,” the chairman said. “Currently, we have over 700 detainees from over 40 countries in … Syrian Democratic Force custody. The progress in returning these fighters home for prosecution has been delayed by political considerations and inconsistent legal frameworks.”

Nations need to address the challenge “and prevent these detainees from becoming the leaders of tomorrow’s extremist organizations,” he said.

Migrants and the challenges of large populations becoming open to radicalization is another problem, the chairman noted.

“Finally, our ability to meet the challenges of extremists leveraging innovations in technology will impact the character of the threat,” Dunford said. “We must develop effective measures to mitigate the risk of extremists using cyberspace and advanced technical means to enhance their communications, recruitment, logistics and lethality.”

Recent research from North Carolina State University finds that state pension plans would be better off avoiding external asset managers when investing their plans’ assets – and would carry substantially smaller unfunded liabilities if they simply invested in a conventional index fund.

“We set out to answer three questions about state pension plans, their external management fees and the return on their investments,” said Jeff Diebold, an assistant professor of public administration at NC State and co-author of a paper on the work. “First, what influences the amount of money that state pension plans pay in external management fees? Second, do higher fees lead to better performance? And third, how would those pension plans have fared if they had taken the money spent on external management fees and invested it in a conventional portfolio, with 60 percent invested in the S&P 500 and 40 percent invested in an intermediate bond fund?”

To address these questions, the researchers turned to the Public Plans Database, where they were able to find data from 49 state-administered pension plans – spanning 30 states – regarding how much those plans spend each year on external management fees. Specifically, the researchers evaluated data on the performance of those 49 plans, spanning the years 2001-2014.

Their first finding was that if states had to begin paying more money into their pension plans, they became more likely to pay higher external management fees – though this was moderated by plan size. The effect was still seen in large pension plans, but it was less pronounced than was seen in smaller plans.

“This makes sense, in a way, because the pension plans are trying to achieve returns that outstrip the stock market as a whole,” said Jerrell Coggburn, a professor of public administration at NC State and co-author of the paper. “And larger plans may be able to negotiate better fees with external managers.”

“Unfortunately, higher fees did not lead to better performance,” Diebold said. “There was no positive relationship between what plans paid in fees and how they performed. You don’t always get what you pay for.”

For the third research question, the researchers only evaluated 42 of the 49 plans, because the evaluation required at least 10 years of data. But for those 42 plans, the researchers found that the more a plan spent on external fees, the more it lost – relative to what it would have made investing in the conventional portfolio of the S&P 500 and intermediate bond funds.

For example, the plan that spent the fourth least amount of money on external fees would have cut 5 percent of its unfunded liability if it had invested in the conventional portfolio. The median plan would have eliminated 14 percent of its unfunded liability. And the plan with the fourth highest fees would actually have recouped 44 percent of its unfunded liability – approximately $4.2 billion – if it had invested its external fees in the S&P 500 and intermediate bond funds. In this context, an unfunded liability is the amount of the pension plan’s obligation for which the plan has not set aside money.

“And the losses may actually be worse than that, because the study doesn’t account for carried interest,” Coggburn said. “Carried interest refers to a percentage of any returns that external managers earn, over and above the flat fees they take for their services. And carried interest can account for around 20 percent of earnings from an external manager’s investments. We couldn’t account for carried interest because almost no plans share that information publicly.”

“This work suggests that the fees associated with external managers – and the dearth of corresponding benefits associated with those fees – contribute to an unnecessary risk of underfunding state pension plans,” Diebold said.

A research study from Queen’s University Belfast has revealed that the majority of Irish people believe that Pope Francis did not do enough to address clerical abuse during his recent papal visit to Ireland.

Pope Francis made his first papal visit to Ireland in August 2018 for the World Meeting of Families.

Just 30 percent of Irish people believe that the pope did enough to address clerical abuse. Practising Catholics, defined as those who attend religious services at least once a month, differed from the rest of the population with 50 per cent stating that they believed Pope Francis had gone far enough to address abuse.

The research was conducted in the form of a survey designed by Dr Gladys Ganiel, Research Fellow from the Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice at Queen’s.

840 respondents took part in the survey, which was carried out as part of market research agency Amárach’s monthly omnibus survey in the Republic of Ireland, mid-to-late September 2018. 64 per cent of respondents in the survey identified themselves as Catholic.

Speaking about the findings, Dr Ganiel said: “Francis’ visit to Ireland has revealed a lot about how people in Ireland think about the Catholic Church. Even a pope as popular as Francis cannot distract from the widespread dismay about the way that the Church has handled clerical sexual abuse.

“At the same time, this survey shows clear evidence that Francis’ pontificate has had a positive impact on a significant minority of people’s perceptions of the Catholic Church, both since his visit to Ireland and since he became pope in 2013.”

The additional key findings include:

• 31 percent agreed the visit had been “a healing time for victims and survivors of clerical sex abuse”. 36 percent disagreed and 24 percent said neither/nor or no opinion
• 23 percent agreed the visit had been “a healing time for LGBTQI people and their families”. 40 percent disagreed and 37 percent said neither/nor or no opinion
• 66 percent said their opinion of the Catholic Church has not changed since Francis became pope in 2013, with 22 percent saying their opinion had become more favourable
• 50 percent of respondents agree that Pope Francis’ visit was good for the Catholic Church in Ireland and Ireland as a nation. 75 percent of practising Catholics agreed with this statement.

80 percent of the respondents did not attend any of the events surrounding the papal visit, for a number of different reasons. Of those, 51 percent said they did not attend because they were simply not interested and 30 per cent said they disagreed with how the Catholic Church has handled abuse.

For practicing Catholics, 39 percent said the main reason as to why they did not attend any of the events was because the travel/walk was too difficult, 22 per said they were not interested and 18 percent said they disagreed with how the Church has handled abuse.

“For all the respondents except practising Catholics, indifference seems to have trumped anger about abuse as a reason for not attending – although abuse is still the next most significant factor,” Dr Ganiel added.

A study published in the BMJ Open shows that in countries where there is a complete ban on all corporal punishment of children there is less fighting among young people. There was 31% less physical fighting in young men and 42% less physical fighting in young women in countries where corporal punishment was banned in all settings, compared with those where corporal punishment was permitted both at school and at home.

In countries where there was a partial ban on corporal punishment (such as in Canada, the US and the UK where corporal punishment not banned in at home), the level of violence in young men was similar to that in countries with no bans, though the level of violence in women was lower (at 56%).

Previous studies have shown a clear relationship between childhood spanking and a host of negative outcomes later on ranging from aggression to mental health problems. In this case, however, the researchers caution that they see an association rather than a causal relationship between legal bans on corporal punishment and violence in youth.

“All we can say, at this point, is that countries that prohibit the use of corporal punishment are less violent for children to grow up in than countries that do not,” said Frank Elgar, of McGill’s Institute for Health and Social Policy, the lead author on the study. “At this point we are simply taking a stratospheric view of the issue at an international level and note the correlation. To be able to show an effect of bans on youth violence, we will need to go back in 4-8 years after more data has been collected. We will also need to ask children and youth more questions about what’s going on at home, something that researchers have typically been shy to do.”

Takeaways

Frequent fighting was generally more common in young men (close to 10%) than in young women (about 3%)

Fighting varied widely from one country to the next ranging from under 1% in Costa Rican young women to close to 35% in Samoan young men

The researchers found that the associations between corporal punishment and youth violence remained, even after taking potential confounders were taken into account such as per capita income, murder rates and parent education programmes to prevent child maltreatment.

How the research was done

The researchers used data gathered from adolescents in 88 countries around the world by the World Health Organization Health Behaviour in School Aged Children (HBSC) study and the Global School-Based Health Survey (GSHS). The youth responded to survey questions at varying ages about how often they got into fights. The researchers correlated this information with data from each country about the prohibition of corporal punishment.

Countries were grouped into: those with a complete ban on the use of corporal punishment at home and in schools (30 countries, the majority of which are in Europe, as well as a smaller number in Latin America, Asia and Africa); those with a ban in schools but not in the home (38 countries, among them China, the US, UK, and Canada), and those with no ban on corporal punishment (20 countries, ranging from Myanmar to the Solomon Islands).

According to the latest report on the evolution of worldwide population submitted by the United Nations, 13% of today’s population is over 60 years of age; and by 2050 this percentage will almost double, reaching 25%. The ageing of society is a reality and technologies are adapting day-to-day to this demographic change.

In this context, researchers of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), the Universidad de Alicante (UA) and the Universidade do Minho are working on an interactive robot called Pharos which will help the elderly with their daily household chores. Their work has recently been published in the journal Sensors.

“Our objective is to turn Pharos into another companion of the elderly; a virtual assistant, friendly and easy to use which regularly recommends personalised physical activities, promoting a healthy life and facilitating the active ageing of the population,” highlights Vicente Julián, researcher at the Computer Technology and Artificial Intelligence Group of the UPV.

Pharos is based on a commercial robot – Pepper – to which researchers have added two modules: the first which recommends an exercise plan adapted to each user, and the second which, through advanced AI techniques, assesses completion of the exercise, verifies whether the user has completed it correctly – comparing it to a library of stored exercises through Deep Learning – and registers them on the system.

The robot also includes a visual and physical interface that the user will interact with in order to identify them through a camera. “Once they are identified, Pharos determines the most appropriate exercises depending on their capabilities. Furthermore, the exercise programme is regularly adapted to the evolution and health of the user. To this effect, it includes a recommendation algorithm which can even help detect health issues,” explains Ester Martínez, researcher of the Robotics and Three-dimensional Vision Group (RoViT) of the UA.

The main difference of Pharos compared to other similar systems is the detailed monitoring of users, as well as the possibility to determine whether they are performing the exercises correctly or not. It is a very useful tool for carers and assistants, as it makes it possible to easily check if the ability to perform certain exercises diminishes, which can reveal progressive physical and/or cognitive problems.

“Low performance when conducting the planned exercises can indicate some sort of issue with the user. And, by registering the exercise history, Pharos can help reveal underlying problems which would otherwise be impossible to see,” explain the researchers.

The Spanish-Portuguese research team is currently working on perfecting the user-robot interactions, optimising the exercise recognition system and making it possible for several users to use it without interfering with the others, making use of planification strategies.

William Nordhaus, winner of a Nobel prize, laid the groundwork for an entire field – the economics of climate change.

By Kenneth Gillingham*

William Nordhaus of Yale University has been awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Honor of Alfred Nobel for his path-breaking work in “integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis,” in the words of the Nobel committee. But his contributions can be seen more broadly as making a profound contribution towards broadening the scope of economic analysis to shed light on the causes and consequences of how unintended effects of human activity can influence the long-run trajectory of economic growth and well-being. This research agenda has covered resource scarcity, economic accounting incorporating environmental considerations and, most notably, seminal work on the economics of global climate change.

The most appropriate place to start when reflecting upon Nordhaus’ contributions is at the beginning of his career. He began with an interest in how innovation and technology influence growth, much like Paul Romer, but then recognized that other environmental and resource challenges are equally interesting to study and important. In the 1970s, there was great concern in both the academic community and popular press about resource scarcity – will we run out of minerals and fuels that we rely upon for human well-being? Some of his early work sharply points out that as resources become scarce, they become more valuable, leading to further discoveries, innovation in economizing on those resources, and innovation in substituting scarce resources for more plentiful – and less expensive – resources. Moreover, this work emphasized that the changes in price would be expected to lead to a smooth path of resource use that allows humans to continue to maintain their well-being. The past several decades have largely proven Nordhaus correct, as society today is vastly more resource and energy efficient and still has ample resources, at least in the foreseeable future.

However, Nordhaus’ early work recognized that, while resource scarcity does not present a pressing threat to long-run economic growth, the human impact on the environment provides much greater cause for worry. In 1974, Nordhaus wrote: “I have performed a rough calculation of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 …. Assuming that 10 percent of the atmospheric CO2 is absorbed annually (G. Skirrow), the concentration would be expected to rise from 340 ppm in 1970 to 487 ppm in 2030 – a 43 percent increase. Although this is below the fateful doubling of CO2 concentration, it may well be too close for comfort.”

Nordhaus was prescient – it turns out the world is on track to hit 487 ppm of CO2 in 2030. In two papers – “Can We Control Carbon Dioxide?” in 1975 and “Economic Growth and Climate: The Case of Carbon Dioxide” in 1977 – Nordhaus laid the groundwork for what is now an entire field on the economics of climate change. In these early papers, he began with a classic macroeconomic model of long-run growth. This groundbreaking work was the first to include a representation of carbon dioxide concentrations and the climate in such a macroeconomic framework, and to begin analyzing how climate change can be mitigated at a the lowest-cost possible.

This work was followed up by construction of one of the first, and the most well-known, integrated assessment models of climate change. Models are crucial for understanding the nature of climate change and how to address it because the issue involves physical, chemical and economic relationships that would simply not be possible to grasp fully without a clear framework. Nordhaus’ first integrated assessment model – the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) – provides just such a framework. The single model contains all of the links among carbon dioxide concentrations, the climate, economic damages from climate change, and a model of the economy that produces carbon dioxide emissions – closing the loop. Such an endeavor involved bringing physics and chemistry into economic modeling to address a critical question for policy: What is the optimal policy to address climate change?

A hallmark of Nordhaus’ DICE model is that is intentionally simple and transparent, designed to provide insights into the effects of different assumptions on the end results, which include global temperatures and global economic growth. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United States government under the Obama administration are just a few of the bodies around the world that have used DICE in their work to understand potential solutions for addressing climate change.

Hundreds of papers are based on the DICE model first published in 1994. The model is so clear that it is taught in courses around the country. In fact, I recall building the model in Excel from scratch as an undergraduate in the late 1990s – a transformative experience that developed intuition about the nature of the climate change issue that simply would not have been possible otherwise. An entire field of economists works with different versions of integrated assessment models of climate change, and I suspect nearly all of them began their careers working with DICE.

Developing the DICE model also spurred further contributions. For example, in 1994 Nordhaus and co-authors pioneered the estimation of damages from climate change to agriculture. As the climate changes, agricultural yields may decline, reducing the value of land that now serves as cropland and, less common, increasing the value in some cooler climes. Such estimation allows for an empirical strategy to estimate how climate change affects agriculture in the long-run. This work spawned a large set of literature on estimating the damage of climate change, and many economists still work on this topic today.

The decade-long quantitative easing (QE) measures have resulted in the current reverse flow of capital from emerging markets to developed markets. This has led to an “economic drought” in the emerging markets. Would all these drive a currency meltdown in the emerging markets?

By Christopher H. Lim*

Over the course of the past decade, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the fear of a repeat of the 1930 Great Depression had led to the globally concerted efforts by all the major central banks to pursue the unprecedented monetary measures of quantitative easing (QE) and near zero or below zero interest rates.

Despite the huge sacrifice to the tune of trillions of dollars pumped into the financial system by taxpayers, the past decade was known or labelled as The Advanced Economies’ Lost Decade.

Profit Maximisation

At the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 originating from the United States subprime mortgage crisis, most countries around the world  suffered various shocks. These ranged from a liquidity crunch to downward pressures on asset prices due to the interconnectedness of global financial markets.

For most parts of the past decade (2008-2018), the G3 economies (the US, European Union, and Japan) had been on the decline and were relatively less healthy than the emerging economies and some developed countries such as Australia and Canada.

However, soon after the introduction of QE and historically low interest rates, capital flows arising from QE shifted towards the markets outside of the G3 economies, where short-term relative returns were high and where there was greater capacity to absorb funds.

This extensive overdose of financial measures had created a distorted demand in different assets. These included the surge in foreign buying of emerging-market bonds as well as urban housing in a number of cities — a variant of the ghost cities problem in China.

Overpriced Properties

By 2014, cities such as Vancouver and Toronto in Canada, Auckland in New Zealand, and Sydney and Melbourne in Australia were suffering overpriced residential properties, with price-to-income ratios at historical highs. As a result, many professionals were priced out of the market in these cities;  at the same time, a number of investors were prepared to own  empty houses with the anticipation of further appreciation in prices.

The 2013 McKinsey Global Institute Studies had observed that the emerging-market bonds outstanding has climbed by US$5 trillion since 2008, despite the fact only an estimated 15 percent of the overall bond market was foreign owned.

Subsequently, following the statements issued by the US Federal Reserve in May and June 2013 indicating the intention of tightening monetary policy in late 2013, more than 10 percent decline was observed in the emerging-market equity and aggregate bond indexes between April and August.

Change of Fortune

Yet, we observe two divergent trends in the West.

EU still faces a number of uncertainties ̶ the huge surge of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa creates an identity crisis for the European population.

In addition, Brexit has caught the EU off-guard. Together with youth unemployment and the rise of nationalism in many EU Member States, this has instigated many within the EU to clarify the EU vision and purpose in the run-up to the European elections in 2019.

In contrast, since 2017, the US – the ground zero of the last global financial crisis – has experienced changing fortunes. In October 2017, the US Federal Reserve took a decision to terminate QE and to gradually increase interest rates in 2018.

Coupled with the upward revision of the US economic growth, improvement in household purchases, enhanced employment opportunities since late 2016 and lower taxes under the Trump Administration, the reversal of QE has led to a rebound in asset markets, company mergers and stock buybacks.

Furthermore, data compiled by the University of Florida as reported in the Wall Street Journal showed that 83 percent of the US-listed initial public offerings (IPO) in 2018’s first three quarters had lost money in the year leading up to their IPO. For example, the company SurveyMonkey experienced a 40 percent jump in share prices after its IPO in September 2018, despite never posting a profitable year.

Extreme Economic Weather

All the above observations can be attributed to QEs influencing the financial market due to their quantum and domino effects on the fund management community globally. Furthermore, the principle of arbitrage  ̶ taking advantage of price differences  ̶  has directly or indirectly created the herd instinct for the movement and direction on the flow of funds.

In addition, for decades, the advocacy of the free flow of capital by the internationalist and liberal West was based on their belief in the importance of an “efficient market hypothesis” in the market-based economy − without realizing how this would facilitate the formation of an economic bubble in the era post-global financial crisis.

In line with the rise of footloose capital,  the launch of QE measures over the past decade has been followed by  a rapid influx of capital into real estate, stock and bond markets in emerging economies and selective developed economies that are less affected by the global financial crisis.

As the corollary of the “efficient market hypothesis”, the frequent “drought and flood” phenomenon in movements of funds as experienced by the emerging markets are synonymous with the sudden shocks of “extreme economic weather conditions” due to the policy stances of the G3 central banks.

In other words, many economies in the emerging markets are like farmers without the means of installing a proper irrigation control system in their financial sector. They are facing the volatile forces of “drought and flood” in their economies within a day or shorter.

Probability of Currency Meltdown

The US is, once again, perceived as the safe haven and land of opportunities as massive funds are flowing back to the US where investor sentiments and herd instinct behaviour are unmatched even with respect to the dot.com era in 2000.

As of early 2018, the global debt had increased close to US$247 trillion – about 300 percent of the global annual output. In parallel, the drumbeats of the currency crises in the emerging markets are getting louder and where unfortunately the “irrigation control valve” is not in the hands of those in charge in the emerging markets. The prediction of a currency meltdown in some emerging economies is no longer far-fetched.

*Christopher H. Lim is a Senior Fellow and Vincent Mack is an Associate Research Fellow in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. This is the first in a series on the Unintended Consequences of Quantitative Easing.

By Palden Sonam*

In China, rewriting history entails emergence of new heroes as well as victims, depending on the direction of the political wind in Beijing. Today, it appears that late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping has found himself in the wrong direction of the new political wind spurred by incumbent President Xi Jinping’s rise.

At present, there is a visible and steady effort by Xi to downplay Deng’s role in Chinese politics, particularly in China’s ‘Reform and Opening’ policy. If a picture speaks thousand words, then there is certainly a lot to read in the official ‘Spring Tide on the Pearl River: A National Exhibition of Fine Arts Works to Commemorate the 40th Anniversary of Reform and Opening’ at the National Art Museum of China. One of the 256 works on display was a painting that depicted Xi’s father Xi Zhongxun delivering a lecture to a group of Chinese leaders, including Deng. This painting generated considerable confusion and conjectures on social media in China as to whether the person in the painting was President Xi. Another interesting development that raised many eyebrows was the replacement of a giant sculpture of Deng in the museum with a huge TV screen flashing quotes by Xi. Additionally, the biggest painting on display was one that featured Xi, and the second biggest painting was one that featured his father. In CPC propaganda, the size and placement of a leader’s image says a lot about their place in the Party.

However, what is more intriguing is the deliberate distortion of historical facts in the painting. A quick inquiry into the meeting depicted in the work reveals several aspects that contradict the Party’s own official version of history. The Party meeting in focus was held in April 1979 and the leader presiding over the meeting was Hua Goufeng, who was the chairman of the Party and China’s premier at that time. Moreover, Deng and Marshal Ye Jianying were not present at the April 1979 meeting. However, in the painting, Deng and Marshal Ye are depicted as present, and Hua is missing. In China, producing such an artwork without the prior approval of higher authorities amounts to a serious crime of ‘historical nihilism’–any narrative/view of the past events that contradict(s) the official line. However, the past is strangely not often constant in Chinese politics.

This begs the question as to what the new painting indicates in the context of China’s Party politics. This particular piece of art did contain interesting insights, but it was not the only one. In fact, the entire exhibition seemed to be an attempt to legitimise Xi’s policies, and points to his politics of power and image.

Emerging Trends

First, Xi is downplaying Deng’s leadership as the paramount leader in the reform initiatives by magnifying the role of his father, who was the party secretary of Guangdong province at that time. Until now, the party’s version of history held Deng as the architect of the reform policy that had rescued China from the consequences of the disasters caused by Mao’s policies. However, Xi now seems to be interested in rewriting the Party’s version of history around his father by portraying him as the main brain behind the reform initiatives.

Second, it appears that the painting attempts to blend the Party’s official narrative of reform as being in the nature of the party itself with some form of hereditary link. In the painting, Xi is not portrayed as inheriting power or privileges from his father, but instead as carrying forward his father’s work as part of the national mission of continuous reform and opening up. Such a depiction subtly projects a connection between bold national reforms seemingly started by his father and Xi’s national rejuvenation project. In this context, in the exhibition, Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is presented as a continuation of his father’s reform initiative.

Here, it is important to note that Xi is not only presented as a great leader but also a good son–faithfully fulfilling the Confucian ethics of filial piety by completing something remarkable started by his father. However, the highly sophisticated Party propaganda does not categorically state this. Instead, it is presented in way that the Chinese people view it in that manner.

Deng’s Legacy Vs Xi’s Legitimacy

It is also important to understand why it is politically necessary for Xi to downplay Deng’s contribution and highlight his and his father’s roles. This has much to do with some of his policy initiatives like the termination of the presidential term limit; re-partification of state and society; more ideological control; and the development of a cult personality around him. These actions signify a reversal of what Deng managed to do after taking over the party leadership. This raises the question of legitimacy, which is essential for Xi not only as a politician but more so as the core leader within the one-party system.

This issue of legitimacy must be understood on at least two levels, personal and policy, both of which are directly related to each other. When Xi began dismantling Deng’s policy initiatives, he essentially began questioning the latter’s political wisdom as a core leader and the relevance of the policy reforms he introduced. The attempt to downplay Deng’s role in the party propaganda is to make him fade away from Party lore and public memory as a reformist leader. The likely calculation is that the less the Party mentions Deng in official propaganda employed in the media and museums, the less people may talk about him and his policies that Xi is overturning. It could also be Xi’s reaction to the minor and marginalised voices that are critical of his policies at home and abroad.

In China, the Party as an Orwellian Big Brother takes a keen interest in what it wants the people to remember or forget; particularly individuals and events with significant political implications. Therefore, in Chinese politics, much like the present and the future, the past too is a theatre of power struggle–sometimes more unpredictable than the future.

The Constitution, Charter or Covenant of Medina pre-dated the English Magna Carta by almost six centuries. It applied to the 10,000+ citizens living in and around Medina at that time. Remarkably, 45% of the total population in Medina consisted of pagan Arabs, 40% consisted of Jews, and only 15% were Muslims, at the start of this treaty. These numbers were recorded by Prophet Muhammad through a census he commissioned.

So Prophet Muhammad’s Charter/Covenant of Medina was designed to govern a multi-religious pluralistic society in a manner that allowed religious freedom for all.

The Charter’s 47 clauses protect human rights for all citizens, including equality, cooperation, freedom of conscience and freedom of religion. Clause 25 specifically states that Jews and pagan Arabs are entitled to practice their own faith without any restrictions: “The Jews of the Banu ‘Auf are one community with the Muslim believers, their freedmen and their persons, except those who behave unjustly and sinfully for they hurt but themselves, and their families. (26-35)

The same applies to the Jews of the Banu al-Najjar, Banu al-Harith, Banu Sai’ida, Banu Jusham, Banu al-Aus, Banu Tha’laba, and the Jafna, a clan of the Tha‘laba and the Banu al-Shutayba. Loyalty is a protection against treachery. The freedmen of Tha‘laba are as themselves. The close friends of the Jews are as themselves. So the Covenant of Medina was the first political document in history to establish religious freedom as a fundamental constitutional right.

The “Charter of Medina” created a new multi-tribal ummah/community soon after the Prophet’s arrival at Medina (Yathrib) in 622 CE. The term “constitution” is a misnomer. The treaty was more like the American Articles of Confederation that proceeded the U.S. Constitution because it mainly dealt with tribal matters such as the organization and leadership of the participating tribal groups, warfare, the ransoming of captives, and war expenditure.

Two recensions of the document (henceforth, “the treaty”) are found in Ibn Ishaq’s Biography of Muḥammad (sira) and Abu ʿUbayd’s Book of State Finance (Kitāb al-amwāl). Some argue the final document actually comprises several treaties concluded at different times.

According to Arjomand, the treaty is a “proto-Islamic public law.” Some clauses in the second part of the treaty, or the treaty of the Jews section (namely clauses 53–64), form a pact with the Jewish Qurayza tribe that was incorporated in this treaty at a later stage. However, clause 44 (“Incumbent upon the Jews is their expenditure and upon the muslimun theirs”) and, clause 45 (“They will aid each other against whosoever is at war with the people of this treaty”) clearly were part of the original pact.

According to Denny, the ummah of the Constitution is made up of Muslims and Jews; although the Jews also constitute a separate ummah “alongside” the Muslims. The treaty was a political-military document of agreement designed to make Yathrib and its people more secure. The Jewish tribes were a party to it as a special group, a “sub-ummah” with its own din (religion and law).

Yathrib was to be “sacred for the people of this document,” which adds a factor of locality and religion. Kinship was not to be the main binding tie of the new ummah; for monotheistic religion was of much greater importance. The ummah is the tribe, a supertribe, with God and Muhammad as arbiters and authorities.

According to Goto, the three main Jewish tribes—Nadir, Qurayza, and Qaynuqaʿ had agreements with Muhammad that were separate. Muhammad himself made a document or documents for the three major Jewish tribes. The six Jewish groups called “yahud bani so-and-so” mentioned in the treaty were not the three large Jewish tribes, but refer to significant groups of Jewish converts to Judaism within the pagan Arab tribes of Medina (since most Jews married other Jews these groups grew into large clans within the larger pagan Arab tribe of which they were a part).

Muhammad Hamidullah divides the document into two parts: (1) The rules affecting the Muhajirun and the Anṣar that go back to the beginning of the first year after the Hijrah, and (2) the code for the Jews concluded after the Battle of Badr. In his view it was a constitution promulgated for the city-state of Medina. It included the prerogatives and obligations of the ruler and the ruled, as well as other immediate requirements (including social insurance for the needy).

According to Rubin, the Jewish participants were not the three main Jewish tribes, but Jewish groups that unlike the three main tribes, had neither a territory of their own nor a separate Jewish tribal affinity, because they were families and clans of converts to Judaism within the various pagan Arab tribes.

Muhammad’s ummah was a unity sharing the same religious orientation (monotheism) and included the Jews as “an umma of believers.” They were entitled to complete protection for themselves that also included their din (religion and law).

The original Covenant of Medina influenced later generations of Muslims to include Christians within its provisions. There are a total of six different versions of such covenants with different Christian groups, which have been largely ignored by both Muslim and European historians.

A recent book by John Morrow “The Covenants of the Prophet Muhammad with the Christians of the World” published by Angelico Press is a good exposition of these historical documents that should be read by everyone concerned with improving political relationships between Muslims and non-Muslims. The Qur’an strongly supports religious pluralism and wasatia, a religious term in Islam for the middle path of temperance and reconciliation.

Extremists who deny the value of wasatia should read Prophet Muhammad’s original Covenant of Medina, as well as “The Covenants of the Prophet Muhammad with the Christians of the World”.

With Turkish investigators asserting that they have found further evidence that Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed when he visited the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago, Turkey appears to be leveraging the case to enhance its position as a leader of the Islamic World and reposition itself as a key US ally.

To enhance its geopolitical position vis a vis Saudi Arabia as well as Russia and Iran and potentially garner economic advantage at a time that it is struggling to reverse a financial downturn, Turkey has so far leaked assertions of evidence it says it has of Mr. Khashoggi’s killing rather than announced them officially.

In doing so, Turkey has forced Saudi Arabia to allow Turkish investigators accompanied by Saudi officials to enter the consulate and positioned President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the kingdom’s saviour by engineering a situation that will allow the kingdom to craft a face-saving way out of the crisis.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering announcing that Mr. Khashoggi, a widely-acclaimed journalist critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who went into self-exile because he feared arrest, was killed in either a rogue operation or an attempt gone awry to forcibly repatriate it him back to the kingdom.

US President Donald J. Trump offered the Turks and Saudis a helping hand by referring this week to the possibility of Mr. Khashoggi having been killed by rogues and dispatching Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Riyadh and Ankara.

Mr. Khashoggi, seeking to obtain proof of his divorce in the kingdom so that he could marry his Turkish fiancé, visited the consulate two weeks ago for the second time after having allegedly received assurances that he would be safe.

Turkey emerges as the crisis moves towards a situation in which an official version is agreed that seeks to shield Prince Mohammed from being held responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance and likely murder with its international status significantly enhanced.

Turkish leverage is further boosted by the fact that Saudi Arabia — its image in government, political and business circles significantly damaged by the crisis — and the Trump administration that wants to ensure that the kingdom’s ruling family emerges from the crisis as unscathed as possible, are in Ankara’s debt.

As a result, the denouement of the Khashoggi crisis is likely to alter the dynamics in the long-standing competition between Turkey and Saudi Arabia for leadership of the Islamic world.

It also strengthens Turkey’s position in its transactional alliance with Russia and Iran as they manoeuvre to end the war in Syria in a manner that cements Bashar al-Assad’s presidency while addressing Turkish concerns.

Turkey’s position in its rivalry with Saudi Arabia is likely to also benefit from the fact that whatever face-saving solution the kingdom adopts is likely to be flawed when tested by available facts and certain to be challenged by a host of critics, even if many will see Turkey as having facilitated a political solution rather than ensuring that the truth is established.

Already, Mr. Khashoggi’s family who was initially quoted by Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled media as backing Saudi denials of responsibility, insinuations that his fate was the product of a conspiracy by Qatar and/or Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, and casting doubt on the integrity of the journalist’s Turkish fiancée, has called for “the establishment of an independent and impartial international commission to inquire into the circumstances of his death.”

Turkey and Saudi Arabia differ on multiple issues that divide the Muslim world. Turkey has vowed to help Iran circumvent Saudi-supported US sanctions imposed after Mr. Trump withdrew in May from the 2015 international agreement that curbed the Islamic republic’s nuclear agreement.

Turkey further backs Qatar in its dispute with a Saudi-United Arab Emirates-led alliance that has diplomatically and economically boycotted the Gulf state for the last 16 months. The credibility of the alliance’s allegation that Qatar supports terrorism and extremism has been dented by the growing conviction that Saudi Arabia, whether in a planned, rogue or repatriation effort gone wrong, was responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s killing.

Mr. Khashoggi’s death, moreover, highlighted differing approaches towards the Brotherhood, one of the Middle East’s most persecuted, yet influential Islamist groupings. Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE and Egypt, have designated the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.

Many brothers have sought refuge in Turkey with Mr. Erdogan empathetic and supportive of the group. A former brother, Mr. Khashoggi criticized Saudi repression of the group.

The Saudi-Turkish rivalry for leadership of the Muslim world was most evident in the two countries’ responses to Mr. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and his as yet unpublished plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Turkey emerged as the leader of Islamic denunciation of Mr. Trump’s move of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognition of the city as Israel’s capital after Prince Mohammed tried to dampen opposition. Ultimately, King Salman was forced to step in a bid to clarify the kingdom’s position and counter Turkish moves.

No matter how Turkey decides to officially release whatever evidence it has, Saudi Arabia figures out how to respond and halt the haemorrhaging, and Mr. Pompeo holds talks with King Salman and Mr. Erdogan, Turkey is likely to emerge from the crisis strengthened despite its increasingly illiberal and increasingly authoritarian rule at home,

Turkey’s success is all the more remarkable given that it has neither Saudi Arabia’s financial muscle nor the mantle the kingdom adopts as the custodian of Islam’s two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina.

A successful political resolution of the Khashoggi crisis is likely to earn it the gratitude of the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia, and its other detractors like the UAE who support the kingdom even if it may help it to regain popularity in the Arab world lost as a result of its swing towards authoritarianism, alliance with Iran and Qatar, and support for Islamism.

One immediate Turkish victory is likely to be Saudi acquiesce to Mr. Erdogan’s demand that Saudi Arabia drop its support for Kurdish rebels in Syria that Ankara sees as terrorists – a move that would boost Turkey’s position the Turkish-Russian-Iranian jockeying for influence in a post-war Syria. Turkey is also likely to see Saudi Arabia support it economically.

Turkey may, however, be playing for higher stakes.

Turkey “wants to back Saudi Arabia to the wall. (It wants to) disparage the ‘reformist’ image that Saudi Arabia has been constructing in the West” in a bid to get the US to choose Ankara as its primary ally in the Middle East, said international relations scholar Serhat Guvenc.

Turkey’s relations in recent years have soured as a result of Turkish insistence that the US is harbouring a terrorist by refusing to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the preacher it accuses of having engineered the failed 2016 coup; detaining American nationals and US consulate employees on allegedly trumped up charges, cosying up to Russia and purchasing its S-400 surface to air missile system, and aligning itself with Iran. Relations were further strained by US support for Syrian Kurds.

Mr. Trump, however this week heralded a new era in US-Turkish relations after the release of Andrew Brunson, an evangelist preacher who was imprisoned in Turkey for two years on charges of espionage.

Mr. Guvenc argued that Turkey hopes that Saudi Arabia’s battered image will help it persuade Mr. Trump that Turkey rather than the kingdom is its strongest and most reliable ally alongside Israel in the Middle East.

Said journalist Ferhat Unlu: “”Turkey knows how to manage diplomatic crises. Its strategy is to manage tensions to its advantage,”

In today’s volatile, uncertain and complex global economic climate, currency crises could be triggered again in ASEAN. The impact of such currency turmoil would likely be more severe than the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis.

By Christopher H. Lim and Tan Ming Hui*

The rumblings of a potential currency crisis are being heard in emerging markets and they are getting louder. In May 2018, Argentina’s Central Bank raised interest rates to 40% to protect its peso but this did not help much. Argentina had to go the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a US$50 billion credit line.

In August 2018, Turkey stated that more than 35% of the value of its lira had vanished against the US dollar since the beginning of 2018. In India, pressure also built up against its currency which slipped to a record low, at 70.08 rupees to the  dollar. Will these trends spark off a currency contagion in the emerging markets? During the 2007-08 global financial crisis, ASEAN was spared a full-blown impact. Will the region be immune the next time round?

Will History Repeat Itself?

ASEAN is the fifth largest economy in the world after the United States, the European Union, China and Japan. Average GDP growth in ASEAN was above 5% for the last few years. The IMF and World Bank have predicted this  growth will continue into 2019 and 2020. ASEAN is therefore seen as a region of opportunities, attracting capital inflows.

Presently, media attention is fixated on world leaders engaging in controversial political and trade spats. At the same time, scholars have been scrutinising the financial crises of past decades. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan had issued combined stimulus of more than $13 trillion since 2008.

On Wall Street in 2017, borrowing by governments and corporate entities reached $6.8 trillion. Global total debt hit $247 trillion by the first quarter of 2018. Such unprecedented numbers and the associated risks need to be understood and managed.

An important barometer is Nomura’s early warning system, known as the Damocles Index. It has called to attention the risk of exchange rate crises for Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Ukraine. Apart from South Africa, the other six countries are already in or facing a currency crisis and seeking assistance from the IMF.

In April 2018, for the first time since 2005, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) bought local currency at a total of HK$3.26 billion ($415 million), after the exchange rate dropped to the weak end of its permitted range, to defend its US dollar-pegged system. In August 2018, HKMA pumped in another HK$16.4 billion to soften the withdrawal of banking liquidity due to rising interest rates elsewhere.

What About ASEAN Currencies?

According to the Damocles Index, none of the ASEAN member states is facing immediate risk of an exchange rate crisis. However, the Indonesian rupiah has fallen to its lowest level in more than 20 years. This year alone, the  central bank has depleted almost 10% of its foreign reserves to support the rupiah.

A key challenge faced by Indonesia is its external debt, standing at 34% of GDP, one of the highest in Asia. Of late, Indonesia has also encountered a number of natural disasters. Politically, Indonesia has to handle  growing demands and pressures from different interest groups, particularly on issues relating to concessions for investors in sectors such oil, gas and mining.

All these factors contributed to a weakening of sentiments which may have exacerbated unfavourable perceptions of the rupiah.

For Malaysia and Singapore, there are two challenges. First, funds are leaving the emerging economies, including ASEAN, as the policy of reversing quantitative easing in the developed economies is taking place and interest rates go up. Second, the worsening US-China trade friction, dubbed by the media as “trade war”, has affected market sentiments given that the economies of Malaysia and Singapore are highly dependent on trade.

Currency “Stroke” Facing ASEAN?

Given the above, it is possible that certain ASEAN member states and ASEAN as a whole might face the danger of a “stroke” in exchange rates. A stroke is essentially a brain attack, which can occur to anyone at any time, when blood flow to an area of the brain is cut off.

At times, it may well be a transient ischemic attack which are warning signs preceding a stroke. While 80% of strokes can be prevented, treatment must be administered within the critical three hours of having a stroke.

Just like human health, ASEAN economies should watch out for any symptom and take preventive actions to address a possible “currency crisis stroke”. There is a critical time window in addressing ailing economies. Once past, a meltdown is inevitable. A currency crisis stroke is contagious, as seen during the 1997-98 and 2007-08 financial crises.

Threats to Southeast Asia

Since 1997-98, there are two distinct developments in Southeast Asia. First, ASEAN has deepened economic integration among its member states, and with its key trading partners, particularly China. Second, the global and regional socio-political landscape has undergone a transformation. Security and trade challenges have increased, not least by extremism and unilateral moves motivated by nativism, nationalism and religion.

ISIS may be defeated in Middle East battlefields but its foreign fighters are returning home, including to Southeast Asia. A currency crisis or other economic grievances may well drive disaffected populations to support the returning extremists or other radicalised elements in the respective societies.

Poor socio-economic conditions will fertilise discontent against the incumbent governments. Like dormant cancer cells, a minimal signal change in the network of bad cells can lead to metastasis.

At the same time, Southeast Asia will be affected by a prolonged US-China trade war because of the inter-connected production, supply and value chains between the economies of ASEAN, China, the US and the European Union. This could spell trouble for those with weaker currencies, thereby triggering and sparking off possible crises and global contagion.

In short, if there are no timely and substantive measures by ASEAN and its key trading partners in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) area to pre-empt the consequences of weakening currencies, a potentially disastrous economic downturn in the region is not far-fetched.

In addition, ASEAN is pushing for the RCEP to open up markets, boost trade and possibly stabilise the fluid situation. A coordinated multilateral approach is needed to avoid a repeat of the currency crises of the earlier years.

*Christopher H. Lim is a Senior Fellow and Tan Ming Hui is an Associate Research Fellow in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore This is part of a series on the Unintended Consequences of Quantitive Easing.

Ancient populations in the Andes of Peru adapted to their high-altitude environment and the introduction of agriculture in ways distinct from other global populations that faced similar circumstances, according to findings presented at the American Society of Human Genetics (ASHG) 2018 Annual Meeting in San Diego, Calif.

John Lindo, PhD, JD, assistant professor of anthropology at Emory University, and a group of international collaborators headed by Anna Di Rienzo, PhD, at the University of Chicago and Mark Aldenderfer, PhD, at the University of California, Merced, set out to use newly available samples of 7,000-year-old DNA from seven whole genomes to study how ancient people in the Andes adapted to their environment. They compared these genomes with 64 modern-day genomes from both highland Andean populations and lowland populations in Chile, in order to identify the genetic adaptations that took place before the arrival of Europeans in the 1500s.

“Contact with Europeans had a devastating impact on South American populations, such as the introduction of disease, war, and social disruption,” explained Dr. Lindo. “By focusing on the period before that, we were able to distinguish environmental adaptations from adaptations that stemmed from historical events.”

They found that Andean populations’ genomes adapted to the introduction of agriculture and resulting increase in starch consumption differently from other populations. For example, the genomes of European farming populations show an increased number of copies of the gene coding for amylase, an enzyme in saliva that helps break down starch. While Andeans also followed a high-starch diet after they started to farm, their genomes did not have additional copies of the amylase gene, prompting questions about how they may have adapted to this change.

Similarly, Tibetan genomes, which have been studied extensively for their adaptations to high altitude, show many genetic changes related to the hypoxia response – how the body responds to low levels of oxygen. The Andean genomes did not show such changes, suggesting that this group adapted to high altitude in another way.

The researchers also found that after contact with Europeans, highland Andeans experienced an effective population reduction of 27 percent, far below the estimated 96 percent experienced by lowland populations. Previous archaeological findings showed some uncertainty to this point, and the genetic results suggested that by living in a harsher environment, highland populations may have been somewhat buffered from the reach and resulting effects of European contact. The findings also showed some selection for immune-related genes after the arrival of Europeans, suggesting that Andeans who survived were better able to respond to newly introduced diseases like smallpox.

Building on these findings, Dr. Lindo and his colleagues are currently exploring a new set of ancient DNA samples from the Incan capital Cusco, as well as a nearby lowland group. They are also interested in gene flow and genetic exchange resulting from the wide-ranging trade routes of ancient Andeans.

“Our findings thus far are a great start to an interesting body of research,” said Dr. Lindo. “We would like to see future studies involving larger numbers of genomes in order to achieve a better resolution of genetic adaptations throughout history,” he said.

By Dennis Jay Santos

Government forces captured five senior communist rebel leaders who were allegedly involved in an October plot to oust President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine military said Wednesday.

Adelberto Silva, a consultant for the underground Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), was one of the five intercepted on Tuesday at an army checkpoint south of Manila, military Chief of Staff Gen. Carlito Galvez said.

Silva was with Edical Legaspi, a rebel leader in the northern Philippines, and three others when they were caught at the checkpoint in Laguna province, Galvez said.

“They are key ranking officials of the communist movement involved in the mobilization for the plot against Duterte,” the general said.

“Their sinister objective is to overthrow the government. So we are trying to continue to insulate the vulnerable sectors from them,” he added.

Recovered from the suspects were two .45-caliber pistols, four hand grenades, a homemade bomb and assorted ammunition, officials said.

In 2016, Silva was among communist leaders freed by Duterte as a goodwill gesture to jump start peace talks with the party, whose armed wing is called the New People’s Army (NPA). In January this year, a Philippine court revoked the temporary freedom granted to Silva and fellow communist leaders Benito and Wilma Tiamzon, who remain at large.

Galvez did not explain what roles Silva and his group were to play in the alleged ouster plot codenamed “Red October.” The plotters had been ramping up recruitment efforts at some of the country’s top universities, the military said earlier this month.

The alleged plot was first announced last month by Duterte himself. At the time, he said he had received foreign intelligence alleging that his political arch-rival, opposition Sen. Antonio Trillanes, was conniving with CPP founder Jose Maria Sison in efforts to oust him.

Duterte had promised to show proof, including the name of the country that provided the information. But weeks have passed without any evidence being presented in public to support the president’s allegations.

Trillanes, a former navy officer, and Sison have denied the allegations. Trillanes’ own military fraternity has also dismissed them.

The military had originally said that the plot was to take place in the middle of this month, but it has since backtracked and said the rebels had apparently decided against it.

However, presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo said the intelligence report about the plot remained credible.

“I won’t even wonder why there’s always a plot. That’s precisely the rationale of the creation of the communist to oust the present government,” Panelo said.

The Philippines has a long history of coup plots. The late president, pro-democracy icon Corazon Aquino survived six coup attempts in the 1980s after a peaceful revolution ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who had ruled the country for two decades.

In 2001, ex-President Joseph Estrada was chased out of office in a military-backed popular uprising over alleged corruption.

Jeoffrey Maitem in Cotabato City, Philippines contributed to this report.

A new scientific study of forecasts and alternative scenarios for life expectancy and major causes of death in 2040 shows all countries are likely to experience at least a slight increase in lifespans. In contrast, one scenario finds nearly half of all nations could face lower life expectancies.

The rankings of nations’ life expectancies offer new insights into their health status.

For example, China, with an average life expectancy of 76.3 years in 2016, ranked 68th among 195 nations. However, if recent health trends continue it could rise to a rank of 39th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 81.9 years, an increase of 5.6 years.

In contrast, the United States in 2016 ranked 43rd with an average lifespan of 78.7 years. In 2040, life expectancy is forecast to increase only 1.1 years to 79.8, but dropping in rank to 64th. By comparison, the United Kingdom had a lifespan of 80.8 years in 2016 and is expected to increase to 83.3, raising its rank from 26th to 23rd in 2040.

In addition, the study, published today in the international medical journal The Lancet, projects a significant increase in deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and lung cancer, as well as worsening health outcomes linked to obesity.

However, there is “great potential to alter the downward trajectory of health” by addressing key risk factors, levels of education, and per capita income, authors say.

“The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories,” said Dr. Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and lead author on the study. “But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”

The top five health drivers that explain most of the future trajectory for premature mortality are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use, and alcohol use, Foreman said. Air pollution ranked sixth.

The study is available at http://www.healthdata.org.

In addition to China, several other nations are expected in 2040 to increase substantially in their rankings in terms of life expectancy, including:

• Syria is expected to rise most in rank globally – from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040 -likely, according to the authors, due to a conservative model for conflict;
• Nigeria from 157th to 123rd; and
• Indonesia from 117th to 100th

In contrast, Palestine is expected to drop the most in its life expectancy ranking – from 114th in 2016 to 152nd in 2040. Moreover, several high-income nations are forecast to drop substantially in their rankings, including:

• United States, dropping the most for high-income countries, from 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040;
• Canada from 17th to 27th ;
• Norway from 12th to 20th ;
• Taiwan (Province of China) from 35th to 42nd ;
• Belgium from 21st to 28th ;
• Netherlands from 15th to 21st ;

The rankings also find that Spain is expected to place first in the world in 2040 (average lifespan of 85.8 years), a rise from fourth in 2016 (average lifespan of 82.9 years). Japan, ranked first in 2016 (average lifespan 83.7 years), will drop to second place in 2040 (average lifespan 85.7 years).

Rounding out the top 10 for 2040 are:

3. Singapore (average lifespan 85.4 years) ranked third, as compared to 83.3 years in 2016 and ranking also of third
4. Switzerland (average lifespan 85.2 years), as compared to 83.3 years in 2016 and ranking of second
5. Portugal (average lifespan 84.5 years), as compared to 81.0 years in 2016 and ranking of 23rd
6. Italy (average lifespan 84.5 years), as compared to 82.3 years in 2016 and ranking of seventh
7. Israel (average lifespan 84.4 years), as compared to 82.1 years in 2016 and ranking of 13th
8. France (average lifespan 84.3 years), as compared to 82.3 years in 2016 and ranking also of eighth
9. Luxembourg (average lifespan 84.1 years) as compared to 82.2 years in 2016 and ranking of 10th
10. Australia (average lifespan 84.1 years), as compared to 82.5 years in 2016 and ranking of fifth.

Among those top 10 nations, even their ‘worse’ scenarios in 2040 remain above 80 years. In stark contrast, the bottom-ranked nations, which include Lesotho, Swaziland, Central African Republic, and South Africa, the “better” and “worse scenarios” in 2040 range from a high of 75.3 years in South Africa (“better” scenario) to a low of 45.3 years in Lesotho (“worse scenario”), a 30-year difference.

“Inequalities will continue to be large,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “The gap between the ‘better’ and ‘worse’ scenarios will narrow but will still be significant. In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely. But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.”

In a “worse” scenario, life expectancy decreases in nearly half of all countries over the next generation. Specifically, 87 countries will experience a decline, and 57 will see an increase of one year or more. In contrast, in the “better” scenario, 158 countries will see life expectancy gains of at least five years, while 46 nations may see gains of 10 years or more.

The future shift toward increased premature mortality from NCDs and injuries and away from communicable diseases is apparent by the changing proportions of the top 10 causes of premature death.

In 2016, four of the top 10 causes of premature mortality were NCDs or injuries; in contrast, in 2040, that number increases to eight. The eight NCD or injury causes in the top ten in 2040 are expected to be ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, road injuries, and lung cancer.

The study is unprecedented in scope, Foreman said, and provides more robust statistical modeling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous forecasts from the United Nations and other population studies institutes.

IHME researchers leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to produce forecasts and alternative “better” and “worse” scenarios for life expectancy and mortality due to 250 causes of death for 195 countries and territories.

Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality.

“The range of ‘better’ and ‘worse’ scenarios enables stakeholders to examine potential changes to improve health systems – locally, nationally, and globally,” Murray said. “These scenarios offer new insights and help to frame health planning, especially regarding long lag periods between initial investments and their impacts, such as in the research and development of drugs.”

In addition to calling attention to the growing importance of non-communicable diseases, the analysis exposes a substantial risk of HIV/AIDS mortality rebounding, which could undo recent life expectancy gains in several nations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Furthermore, while NCDs are projected to rise in many low-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases are likely to remain among the leading causes of early death, thereby creating a “double burden” of disease.

Around 90 US Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit landed at Keflavík on Wednesday, marking the initial phase of NATO’s Exercise Trident Juncture 2018 in Iceland. The main phase of Trident Juncture will start in Norway on October 25. Arriving by MV-22 Osprey and CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopters from the USS Iwo Jima, the Marines practised securing the airfield and key infrastructure, in cooperation with the Icelandic Police.

The US Navy has also deployed two cutting-edge P-8A Poseidon aircraft to Keflavík from their current home in Sigonella, Italy. In remarks at the Vardberg Association on Tuesday, Admiral James G. Foggo, Commander of Allied Joint Force Command Naples, as well as US Naval Forces in Europe and Africa, highlighted the P-8A’s key role in anti-submarine operations. He stressed the aircraft’s world-class surveillance and intelligence capabilities, which are important for NATO in the North Atlantic.

Foreign Minister Gudlaugur Thor Thordarson and Admiral Foggo showcased Iceland’s vital role in the NATO Alliance. Speaking at a ceremony commemorating the Battle of the Atlantic aboard the Icelandic Coast Guard Vessel THOR, Minister Thordarson highlighted the “crucial” importance of “unimpeded shipping routes over the Atlantic”. Admiral Foggo also noted Iceland’s strategic location, and thanked the country for an “unwavering commitment” to its Allies.

Trident Juncture 2018 is NATO’s largest exercise in many years, bringing together around 50,000 personnel from all 29 Allies, plus partners Finland and Sweden. Around 65 vessels, 150 aircraft and 10,000 vehicles will participate.

The European Commission and Breakthrough Energy signed Wednesday a Memorandum of Understanding to establish Breakthrough Energy Europe (BEE) – a joint investment fund to help innovative European companies develop and bring radically new clean energy technologies to the market.

With this initiative, the Commission takes action to continue leading in the fight against climate change and to deliver on the Paris Agreement – giving a strong signal to capital markets and investors that the global transition to a modern and clean economy is here to stay.

President Jean-Claude Juncker said, “Europe must continue to take the lead in tackling climate change head on, at home and across the world. We must push for the modernization of Europe’s economy and industry in order to meet the ambitious targets put in place to protect our planet. Pooling public and private investment in new, innovative clean energy technology is key to enabling long-term solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If Europe is to have a future that can guarantee the well-being of all its citizens, it will need to be climate-friendly and sustainable.”

Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President of the Commission for the Energy Union, said, “The scale and speed of what is needed to reach our climate goals require innovative thinking and bold action. Not only is this new public-private investment vehicle being set up in record time, it will also serve as an example of us joining forces to accelerate breakthrough innovation in Europe.”

Carlos Moedas, Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, added, “We are delivering on our commitment to stimulate public-private cooperation in financing clean energy innovation. The €100 million fund will target EU innovators and companies with the potential to achieve significant and lasting reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”

Bill Gates, Chairman of Breakthrough Energy Ventures, said, “We need new technologies to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Europe has demonstrated valuable leadership by making impressive investments in R&D. The scientists and entrepreneurs who are developing innovations to address climate change need capital to build companies that can deliver those innovations to the global market. Breakthrough Energy Europe is designed to provide that capital.”

Breakthrough Energy Europe links public funding with long-term risk capital so that clean energy research and innovation can be brought to market faster and more efficiently. With a capitalization of €100 million, the fund will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting energy efficiency in the areas of electricity, transport, agriculture, manufacturing, and buildings. It isa pilot project that can serve as a model for similar initiatives in other thematic areas.

Breakthrough Energy Europe is expected to be operational in 2019. Half of the equity will come from Breakthrough Energy and the other half from InnovFin – risk-sharing financial instruments funded through Horizon 2020, the EU’s current research and innovation program.