Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe is coming to Washington this week to meet with US Defense Secretary James Mattis. What are they likely to discuss—or more to the point what does Wei want?

Let’s look at the recent context. One meeting between the two in Beijing was postponed by rising tensions between their militaries, particularly in the South China Sea. https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/china-us-relations-whats-next/  The two have since met twice but no agreements have been announced and obviously Wei has more on his mind. Mattis continues to reassure the public by saying our “strategic competition does not imply hostility”. https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/mattis-china-s-defense-chief-to-visit-washington-next-week-1.553857 But he may be whistling by the graveyard.  He also added that __”we will not surrender freedom of navigation”. This was a signal that the U.S. will not back off in its confrontational approach to China’s claims in the South China Sea.

Even on the heels of a near collision between their warships there, the US Navy is considering a several day major show of force in the Taiwan Strait and against China’s claims and actions in the South China Sea. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2166910/us-navy-plans-major-show-strength-south-china-sea-warning

This proposed show of force appears to be an implementation of a more aggressive US policy and actions toward China in the South China Sea. The first indication that a new policy was coming surfaced on 3 May when the White House announced that there would be “near- term and long- term consequences” for China’s “militarization” there. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-missiles-usa/us-says-will-be-consequences-for-chinas-south-china-sea-militarization-idUSKBN1I42FY .

The Pentagon then rescinded its invitation to China to participate in the 2018 Rim of the Pacific Exercise because “China’s behavior [in the South China Sea] is inconsistent with the principles and purposes of the RIMPAC exercise”. https://news.usni.org/2018/05/23/china-disinvited-participating-2018-rimpac-exercise

Then in June at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defense Secretary James Mattis warned China that the rescinding of the invitation was a “relatively small consequence and that there are much larger consequences in the future _ _ .”   https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1538599/remarks-by-secretary-mattis-at-plenary-session-of-the-2018-shangri-la-dialogue/  On 4 October US Vice President Michael Pence gave a cold war like, ‘it’s us or them’ speech https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/ criticizing China across the board and highlighting the recent ‘unsafe’ challenge by a  Chinese destroyer to the USS Decatur as it was undertaking a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) against China’s claims in the South China Sea.  More threatening, the U.S. has stepped up its nuclear capable B52 over flights of the East and South China Seas. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/b52s-fly-over-south-and-east-china-seas-as-trump-upsanti-with-beijing/news-story/d5c4a35b1259abbb57c89f0e94c6f046

China has responded in kind to what it sees as this growing US threat.  For example, its Air Force spokesperson said that the landing of nuclear capable bombers at Woody Island in the Paracels was training to improve its ability to ” reach all territory, conduct strikes at any time and strike in all directions as well as preparation for _ _ the battle for the South China Sea”. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/showdown-the-south-china-sea-why-china-or-america-wont-26014 .  It also undertook major naval and air exercises in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, including a live fire exercise in the East China Sea that some saw as a warning to Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201807190020.aspx   China’s physical challenge to the Decatur may have been the result of a Chinese policy decision to increase the risk and potential cost of such encounters. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2167034/beijings-challenge-us-warship-south-china-sea-deliberate-and

More relevant to US-China military relations, it cancelled a scheduled meeting in the U.S. between its head of navy and the US Chief of Naval Operations and postponed the planned military dialogue between Mattis and Wei. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/30/world/asia/china-us-security-mattis.html China also refused permission for a US Navy warship port call in Hong Kong  and undertook live-fire drills in the South China Sea with fighter jets and bombers. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/09/29/asia-pacific/chinese-warplanes-hold-live-fire-drills-south-china-sea-days-u-s-bomber-flights/#.W7LKdntKj3g

Military to military relations are perhaps the most significant dimension of overall US-China relations because they can be a stabilizing force when relations in other spheres break down. As Randall Schriver, a top Pentagon Official for Asia says such “high level talks are especially valuable during times of tension. https://www.apnews.com/b4ea0f2a812243f390a56e98a4fcffc0/gallery/media:5168a697346a4ccaa1a7c1a6fcd1f58f  In June President Xi Jinping called the US-China military relationship the “model component of our overall bilateral relations”. Given the current poor and worsening political and diplomatic relations between the two, the upcoming meeting could be critical in setting the tone for the near future.

So what does Wei want? He will probably seek answers to some critical questions.  First and foremost, he will want to discern whether Mattis is leaving the administration.  Much of the world respects Mattis as a level-headed, wise and steadying influence on more radical and unpredictable elements in the administration. If Mattis’ departure is imminent, he will want to try and understand if he is being forced out because of such differences, and who and what is likely to come afterwards.

Also he will want to determine how firm and widespread in the upper echelons of the government is support for a more confrontational and even belligerent policy towards China—and how that is likely to play out politically and militarily.

Perhaps most important, he will want to assess the US attitude toward their on again-off again military to military relations.  Does the U.S. want them to continue as such—or to suspend them all together?

Finally he will want to reaffirm how the two militaries can communicate when and if things go really sour.

Acknowledgement by the two military leaders that the two countries may be on the verge of a “cold war” could actually be positive in terms of avoiding unintended and unnecessary conflicts.  This could address the increasingly tense situation in the South China Sea where the US insists on its Freedom of Navigation Operations and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance probes which China finds provocative and may increasingly confront. When the militaries of the U.S. and the Soviet Union found themselves in such a situation, they agreed on a code of conduct regarding encounters between their warships and aircraft at sea. It is called an “Incidents at Sea” agreement and was successful in avoiding incidents and if they did occur, preventing their escalation. It is basically an agreement on communication and maneuvering protocols in such encounters. Although such an agreement will not prevent purposeful confrontations and perhaps the two will discuss each other’s intentions regarding such and how to mitigate them.

The international community hopes the meeting will lead to some tension -lowering agreements or at least public statements from both. But it may well be disappointed. Instead, this meeting of military leaders will try to establish the ground rules for what may prove to be a very difficult and dangerous period for US-China relations especially between their militaries.

*Mark J. Valencia, Adjunct Senior Scholar, National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China

This piece first appeared in the South China Morning Post.  https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2170903/amid-south-china-sea-tensions-what-will#

His detractors and enemies have been waiting some time for this, but it must have given them moments of mild cheer. Facebook, the all-gazing, accumulating system of personal profiles and information, poster child, in fact, of surveillance capitalism, is losing users. At the very least, it is falling to that mild phenomenon in business speak called “flat-lining”, a deceptively benign term suggesting that the fizz is going out of the product.

This week, Mark Zuckerberg has been more humble than usual. The latest figures show that 1.49 billion users hop on the platform daily; monthly active users come in at 2.27 billion. While both figures are increases from previous metrics, these fall shy of those bubbly estimates Facebook loves forecasting: 1.51 billion in the former; 2.29 billion in the latter. “We’re well behind YouTube”, he observed; in “developed countries”, Zuckerberg conceded that his company was probably reaching saturation. While security features of Facebook had improved, there was at least another twelve months before the standard was, in his view, up to scratch.

The user market in North America is flat, while in Europe, FB has experienced a loss of 3 million daily active users. The process was already underway after 2015. The moment your grandparents start using a communications product with teenage enthusiasm, it’s time for a swift, contrarian change. But social media, as with other forms of communication, is a matter of demographics and class.

YouTube, Instagram and Snapchat have been beating down doors and making off with users. A May study from the Pew Research Centre found that half of US teens between the ages of 13 and 17 claim to use Facebook. But YouTube, Instagram and Snapchat are bullishly ahead with usage figures of 85, 72 and 69 percent respectively. To locus of this move is as much in the type of technology being used as behavioural change, with 95 percent of teens claiming to have access to a smartphone. A mind slushing statistic stands out: of those, 45 percent are online constantly in numb inducing ecstasy.

The company, in an effort to plug various deficiencies in the operating systems, has been busy hiring content moderators, a point that has not gone unnoticed by users. This, in of itself, is a flawed exercise, and one imposed upon the company in an effort of moralised policing. Various legislatures and parliaments have gotten itchy in passing legislation obligating Facebook and similar content sharers to remove hate speech, extremist subject matter and state-sponsored propaganda. (Where, pray, is that line ever drawn?).

This raises a jurisdictional tangle suggesting that local parliaments and courts are getting ahead of themselves in gnawing away at the extra-territorial nature of tech giants. This year, a German law was passed requiring social media companies to remove illegal, racist or slanderous content within 24 hours after being flagged by users or face fines to the tune of $57 million. Such legislation, while localised in terms of jurisdiction, has international consequences. Content otherwise permitted by the US First Amendment will have to be removed for offending regulations in another country.

This is a far from academic speculation. Canada’s Supreme Court in June last year ruled that Google had to remove search results pertaining to certain pirated products. The natural consequence of this was a universal one. “The internet has no borders – its natural habitat is global,” claimed the trite observation from the majority. “The only way to ensure that the interlocutory injunction attained its objective was to have it apply where Google operates – globally.”

This precipitated a legal spat that proceeded to involve a Californian decision handed down by Judge Edward J. Davila, who turned his nose up at the Canadian judiciary’s grant of the interlocutory injunction. To expect companies such as Google to remove links to third-party material menaced “free speech on the global internet.” The emergence of a “splinternet” – one where online content is permissible in one country and not another – has been given a dramatic shove. Police, in other words, or be damned.

By the end of September, an army of some 33,000 labouring souls were retained by Facebook for the onerous task of sifting, assessing and removing errant content. But this whole task has come with its own pitfalls, a preoccupation of danger and emotional disturbance. Those recruited have become content warriors with a need for a strong constitution, a point that has presented Zuckerberg with yet another problem.

Former moderator Selena Scola, who worked at Facebook from June 2017 till March this year, has gone so far as to sue the company for post-traumatic stress disorder after witnessing content depicting graphic violence “from her cubicle in Facebook’s Silicon Valley offices”. Scola, through her legal counsel, claims that the company did not create a safe environment, instead working upon the practice of having a “revolving door of contractors”. Moderators, according to the legal suit, are “bombarded” with “thousands of videos, images and livestreamed broadcasts of child sexual abuse, rape, torture, bestiality, beheadings, suicide and murder.”

Facebook ushered in a remarkable form of dysfunction between users, and the actual platform of communication. This is very much in the spirit of a concept that lends itself to a hollowed variant of friendship, one based on appropriation, marketing and a somewhat voyeuristic format. If you can’t make friends in the flesh, as Zuckerberg struggled to do, create facsimiles of friendship, their ersatz equivalents. And most of all, place the incentive of generating revenue and profiles upon them. Facebook is not merely there for those who use it but for those who feel free to be used. This point is all too readily missed by the political classes.

Facebook makes everyone a practitioner, and creator, of surveillance, and anybody with a rudimentary understanding of totalitarian societies would know what that does to trust. Split personalities and hived forms of conduct manifest themselves. Unhealthily, then, the number of users globally is still increasing, even if it is dropping in specific parts of the world. Much like the Catholic Church, reliance is placed upon the developing world to supply new pools of converts.

Zuckerberg’s company faces investigations from the European Union, the FBI, the FTC, the SEC and the US Department of Justice. Such moves are not necessarily initiated out of altruism; there is the prevailing fear that such a platform is all too readily susceptible to manipulation (the horror, it seems, of misinformation, as if this was ever a new issue). Fake ads can still be readily purchased; campaigns economic with the facts can still be run and organised on its pages. But to attribute blame to Facebook for a tendency as ancient as politics is another distortion. Not even Zuckerberg can be blamed for that.

Researchers have identified a compound that strongly inhibits botulinum neurotoxin, the most toxic compound known. That inhibiting compound, nitrophenyl psoralen (NPP), could be used as a treatment to reduce paralysis induced by botulism. Botulinum neurotoxin is considered a potential bioweapon because there is no FDA-approved antidote.

The research is published in Applied and Environmental Microbiology, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology.

In the study, the investigators’ first step was to identify the enzyme within botulinum neurotoxin that damages neurons, causing paralysis. They then screened a library containing more than 300 natural compounds from extracts of Indian medicinal plants, searching for enzymes that could neutralize the neuron-damaging activity.

“Using high throughput screening, we identified one of the compounds, nitrophenyl psoralen, as having particularly strong activity against the neuron-damaging enzyme,” said corresponding author Bal Ram Singh, PhD, Professor and Director, Botulinum Research Center, Institute of Advanced Sciences, Dartmouth, MA.

The investigators then tested NPP’s activity in vitro and in cell culture against botulinum neurotoxin type A, which is the most potent serotype among the seven serotypes of botulinum toxin. NPP type A had powerful anti-botulinum toxin activity, with low toxicity to human cells. (image: molecular model of botulinum neurotoxin)

“NPP also showed activity to reverse the mouse muscle paralysis induced by botulinum neurotoxin type A,” said Dr. Singh.

Although fewer than 200 botulism cases occur worldwide, annually, “these cost more to treat than the millions of salmonella outbreaks that occur, making botulism the most expensive form of food poisoning,” said Dr. Singh. Botulinum toxin is produced by Clostridium botulinum, a soil bacterium that is ubiquitous, and hard to kill. The spores can survive being boiled.

Botulism can be acquired through routes other than food poisoning, such as through wound contamination, and via colonization of the digestive tracts of children and infants.

Psoralen derived drugs are already approved by the FDA in the United States. That would likely hasten the drug approval process for NPP, said Dr. Singh.

The research originated from Dr. Singh’s group’s work on biochemical basis of Ayurveda, an herbal medicine system widely used in India. Natural products, such as those used in Ayurveda, have more diversified structures, lower toxicity, and better drug-like properties than synthetics. As Founding Director with the Center for Indic Studies at UMass Dartmouth, he considered natural herbal compounds as source of countermeasures against botulism. This led to discussions, and then to a collaboration on this work with Professor Virinder Parmar, head of the Chemistry Department at the University of Delhi.

Researchers at The University of Texas at Dallas recently examined public opinions about Black Lives Matter, an activist movement founded in 2013 that has gained national attention in subsequent years.

The study, “Red States and Black Lives,” published in the journal Justice Quarterly, looked at whether factors such as race, age, education, political affiliation and geography predicted support or opposition to the movement.

“Our findings suggest that the Black Lives Matter movement is a politically polarizing issue,” said Dr. Alex R. Piquero, author of the study, Ashbel Smith Professor of criminology and associate dean of graduate programs in the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences.

The study, one of the first to provide empirical evidence and insight into public opinion about Black Lives Matter, found that those most opposed to the movement were men, conservative or Republican individuals, and supporters of the death penalty.

The researchers, who analyzed a sample of 2,114 people — ranging in age from 18 to 94 — from a 2016 Pew Research Center report, also found high opposition to Black Lives Matter among older respondents. Men were 42 percent more likely to oppose the movement than women, and politically conservative individuals were 257 percent more likely to oppose it than moderate or liberal individuals. States with the highest levels of opposition included Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and Minnesota.

Individuals who perceive the police treatment of blacks in their communities as unfair were 70 percent less likely to oppose the movement than those who did not have that perception, according to the research.

The results were consistent with the racial threat theory, which proposes that as the size of a minority group increases, the majority group will see it as a threat and take measures to maintain its control, Piquero said.

Piquero said the study’s findings are an important step toward gaining a better understanding of why the public is divided over Black Lives Matter. He said they also serve as a baseline for measuring attitudes about the movement over time, adding that documenting changes in public opinion provides critical data for researchers and policymakers.

“These statistics add to a growing body of knowledge over time that can be used to inform debate and eventually policy,” Piquero said.

The research was a collaboration between Piquero and three co-authors from Sam Houston State University, including Dr. Erin Orrick, who earned her PhD from UT Dallas in 2012 and who has worked closely with him since her graduate criminology studies at the University.

Piquero said the findings highlight the need for more research that can provide a deeper understanding of issues that have polarized the public.

“We all look at the world through different sets of glasses,” he said. “It’s important to find out why people either support or do not support this movement.”

The trick to boosting crops in drought-prone, food-insecure areas of West Africa could be a ubiquitous native shrub that persists in the toughest of growing conditions.

Growing these shrubs side-by-side with the food crop millet increased millet production by more than 900 percent, according to a new study published in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science.

A couple of decades have passed since Richard Dick, a soil scientist now at Ohio State, was traveling through rural Senegal in West Africa and noticed low-lying shrubs that seemed to be doing fine despite arid conditions that had wiped out most other vegetation in farmers’ fields.

“I said, ‘Wow, there’s some biomass! What’s that?'” he said, referring to his team’s initial interest in finding organic matter to improve soil in the area. Since then, Dick and long-term lead collaborator Ibrahima Diedhiou of Senegal have discovered many ways in which the shrubs benefit soil and crops.

But the most profound discovery came recently, Dick said.

A newly published study shows that those same shrubs – when planted adjacent to millet – can share the precious water they draw in and boost production of one of the primary grains that provide nutrition to West Africans.

“People in this part of Africa rely on locally grown crops to survive. Finding ways to increase food production, especially during times of severe drought, is critical,” said Dick, a professor of soil microbial ecology at Ohio State.

“As things stand now, the population is continuing to climb, there’s no more land and yields are staying flat.”

The new study has found that certain woody shrubs – notably one called Guiera, after the Latin name Guiera senegalensis – can effectively share their water with millet plants below the surface of the soil. Millet, a grain crop, along with sorghum, is an essential food source in Senegal.

Farmers there and in other parts of the African region called the Sahel have been allowing these shrubs to grow alongside crops to varying degrees – likely for thousands of years, Dick said.

Some cut them back or rip them out and burn them and they’ve been largely unrecognized as a resource for crops, he said.

Dick and his research team have developed an innovative crop management system that they call the “optimized shrub system” that takes advantage of these readily available shrubs.

Their approach involves the dramatic increase of shrub density in farmers’ fields from fewer than 300 shrubs per hectare (about 2.5 acres) to 1,500 shrubs on that same plot of land. Their system also includes fertilizing the ground with the shrub leaves and stems rather than burning this organic matter.

Along with a dramatic increase in yields, this system improves soil quality, boosts nutrients in the crops and reduces the time to harvest by about 15 days, which is important in an area plagued by low rainfall, Dick said.

The newly published research details one of the ways in which the plants benefit their neighbors.

The shrubs’ roots grow deep into the soil, searching for moisture 30 to 40 feet beneath the ground surface. That obviously better equips the shrubs themselves to survive tough, dry conditions.

But how do they share the liquid wealth? Dick and his collaborators created an experiment in which they were able to track water that moved from deep tap roots into adjacent pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum.)

They found that, at night – when the shrubs weren’t busy with sunlight-dependent photosynthesis – the water drawn from deep underground leaks out through surface roots into the surrounding soil rather than exiting through the leaves.

The stomata – the “pores” on the leaves of a plant – close in the dark, when photosynthesis stops, Dick explained.

And that meant the millet plants’ roots near the surface are able to take up water delivered to the surface by the shrubs.

The researchers confirmed this by tracking water from its initial entry into the shrubs’ roots to its eventual presence in the millet leaves during a scientifically imposed drought experiment that included a comparison shrub-free field.

“We proved that ‘bioirrigation’ by these shrubs is happening and it’s the first time this has been shown for crop production,” Dick said. “This is a native plant and it’s free and easy to grow – everything about this is positive.”

Now the team still wants to run pilot tests of their growing system with farmers throughout the Sahel and make any adjustments needed to foster more widespread adoption of the practice.

Finding natural, easy-to-employ solutions to feed a growing population has great potential in West Africa, Dick said. In other areas of the world, including Southeast Asia and South America, farmers have adapted to population growth by extensive use of fertilizer and pesticides. But in Senegal and neighboring countries, agriculture is dependent on what nature provides – growers do not typically use fertilizer or pesticides, and do not have the resources to irrigate dry crops.

“This is a semi-arid region, where it rains only part of the year. Some years, there are major droughts and people go hungry,” Dick said, adding that between 60 and 90 percent of the Senegalese live in small, agricultural villages.

“The ultimate solution is going to be whatever is locally available, and finding these answers and working with the local farmers to consider potential agricultural techniques is paramount,” Dick said.

Morocco’s decades-long commitment to clean and sustainable energy is widely recognized. The 2017 Climate Change Performance Index ranked Morocco alongside France, Sweden, and the UK in the top ten most climatically conscious countries, and number one in the developing world, based on criteria including CO2 emissions, renewable energy development, efficiency, and climate policy. Undoubtedly, Morocco will continue to be on the upswing. The northern African nation has strongly promoted a transition towards renewable energy, which it is now implementing. Morocco is widely expected to rank even higher in the coming years

In fact, the need to change the trajectory of ever higher energy prices has led Morocco to outline and implement a strategy to attract international capital and revolutionize energy generation in the country.

The year 2018 was marked by the achievement of objectives set within the deadline set at the previous working meeting presided by King Mohammed VI in April 2018. Currently, the entire Noor Ouarzazate solar complex (580 MW) is operational as well as Noor Ouarzazate III. This successful synchronization of the solar plants reinforces their position as one of largest operational solar multi-technology complex in the world.

The Noor Laayoune I and Noor Boujdour I solar power plants were also completed for a combined capacity of 100 MW. These two power plants were built under an innovative financing plan that used the first green bond issue in the Kingdom. These plants, which are part of the first projects initiated under the new model of the southern provinces development promoted by King Mohammed IV pave the way for further progress for the benefit of local populations and economic stakeholders.

The new solar complex Noor Midelt (central of Morocco) will optimize response to the needs of the national network thanks to the hybridization of solar, thermal and photovoltaic technologies. The Noor Midelt project is one of the initiatives under the Noor Solar Plan, which aims at producing a total capacity of 2,000 MW by 2020. The first phase of Noor Midelt is expected to consist of two 400MW hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) plants. For each project, 150 to 190 MW would be provided by CSP with minimum of 5 hours storage. The financing, which includes US$25 million from the Clean Technology Fund, will support the development and construction of the Noor-Midelt I and II plants. The plants have a planned capacity of 600-800 MW

As for the wind projects, the launch of the building works for the Midelt wind farm (180 MW) and the Taza wind farm (100 MW) is scheduled for the first half of 2019.

The year 2019 will be also marked by the launch of the repowering project for the Koudia El-Baida wind farm, the first wind project developed in Morocco and operated in 2000 by the ONEE. This repowering project, which will increase the farm capacity from 50 to 120 MW, will take advantage of the latest technological advances in this area and improve the development of the wind energy resources in the northern provinces of the Kingdom. This is a first in Africa and the MENA region.

King Mohammed VI gave his instructions in order to revise and increase the initial ambitions related to renewable energy to exceed the current goal of 52% of the national electric mix by 2030.

To this end, the Sovereign instructed the Head of Government to promote and encourage the exemplary nature of the public administration drawing on the measures laid down in the Royal Speech of Aug. 20. Public buildings will have to set an example by using renewable energy to maximize energy efficiency and achieve significant savings.

Similarly, the Sovereign stressed the need to adopt an additional integrated program to back all the scheduled water desalination plants with renewable energy production units to ensure their autonomy and energy saving, by relying primarily on the deposits available near the plants, like the wind power plant in Dakhla, or even the exploration of new sources of energy such as the waste energy transformation (Biomass) in big cities like the agglomeration of Casablanca.

Morocco continues to refine its energy strategy to better meet the challenges in terms of supply security, access to energy and environmental protection. The aggressive use of fossil fuels is adversely affecting the eco- system not only in Morocco but worldwide. Now, Morocco is getting concerned over this issue and looking for safer alternative energy for generations to come. The country is joining global support schemes to diversify its funding supply, all these elements are in favour of efficiency, in terms of timing and transaction. Morocco is demonstrating its green credentials and is moving toward renewable energy faster than many experts anticipated.

The sudden decision of Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena to sack tPrime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and later on induct the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new Prime Minister has made many people wonder as to whether Maithripala Sirisena has acted responsibly and with the interest of Sri Lanka in mind.

By this unacceptable move, Sirisena has not only created a constitutional crisis in the country but has also caused considerable damage to the reputation of Sri Lanka in the eyes of the world as a country with healthy traditional democratic practices. No one can be blamed if he would suspect that Sirisena has been solely guided by his personal interest in holding on to the position of President ,rather than the long term interest of protecting the traditions and fabric of Sri Lankan democracy.

In the last national election, Sirisena’s party and Wickremesinghe’s party contested election together, opposing the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. During the election process, Rajapaksa was criticized in harsh terms by Sirisena, even though Sirisena was serving under Rajapaksa when he was the President of Sri Lanka. Sirisena leaving the Rajapaksa government was viewed as back stabbing by Rajapaksa and both of them remained as bitter adversaries.

The mandate that Sirisena received after the election was for a joint coalition government with Wickramasinghe’s party and the verdict also reflected the rejection of Rajapaksa by the majority of the voters.

Now, by sacking Wickremesinghe and aligning himself with Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sirisena has treated the opinion and mandate of the majority of the people with contempt.

After decades of bloody civil war, Sri Lanka was returning back to normalcy. What is needed now is sustained efforts to rebuild the country’s economy with long term vision and sustained efforts, which would be possible only by ensuring smooth governance. Sirisena was given the mandate by the people only to achieve this objective.

It is well known that credit for defeating the separatists and restoring the sovereignty of Sri Lanka after protracted civil war belongs to Mahinda Rajapaksa. Inspite of this, Rajapaksa was voted out during the last election mainly due to the fact that he made the governance of Sri Lanka as a family enterprise. He brought his nearest and distant relatives to the government , gave them plum posts and many people suspected that corruption became the order of the day

Obviously, people have shown maturity in exercising the franchise and also have asserted the fact that the country men wanted clean governance.

It is surprising that Sirisena has now shown an extraordinary level of lack of statesmanship and wisdom by creating a constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka and in the process destabilizing the smooth forward path of democratic process in Sri Lanka.

If Sirisena had developed disagreement with Wickremesinghe, the obvious course of action for him is to dissolve the parliament and call for national election.

Politicians are known to be suspected tribe all over the world with regard to their targets and ambitions.

However, when the politician would become the President of the country and he would still conduct himself like an average politician , then the structure and stability of democracy in the country would suffer heavily. This is what is happening in SriLanka now

Certainly, Sirisena has done a historical mistake and caused a setback to the spirit of democracy in Sri Lanka by sacking a person who was his partner until recently and joining hands with the person who was his adversary, which is against the mandate given by the people.

It is surprising that seasoned person like Sirisena cannot see beyond himself even as he remains as President of Sri Lanka, with responsibility for ensuring that Sri Lanka would forge ahead. Sri Lankan citizens deserve better.

The ozone hole that forms in the upper atmosphere over Antarctica each September was slightly above average size in 2018, NOAA and NASA scientists reported.

Colder-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere created ideal conditions for destroying ozone this year, but declining levels of ozone-depleting chemicals prevented the hole from as being as large as it would have been 20 years ago.

“Chlorine levels in the Antarctic stratosphere have fallen about 11 percent from the peak year in 2000,” said Paul A. Newman, chief scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “This year’s colder temperatures would have given us a much larger ozone hole if chlorine was still at levels we saw back in the year 2000.”

According to NASA, the annual ozone hole reached an average area coverage of 8.83 million square miles (22.9 square kilometers) in 2018, almost three times the size of the contiguous United States. It ranks 13th largest out of 40 years of NASA satellite observations. Nations of the world began phasing out the use of ozone-depleting substances in 1987 under an international treaty known as the Montreal Protocol.

The 2018 ozone hole was strongly influenced by a stable and cold Antarctic vortex — the stratospheric low pressure system that flows clockwise in the atmosphere above Antarctica. These colder conditions — among the coldest since 1979 — helped support formation of more polar stratospheric clouds, whose cloud particles activate ozone-destroying forms of chlorine and bromine compounds.

In 2016 and 2017, warmer temperatures in September limited the formation of polar stratospheric clouds and slowed the ozone hole’s growth. In 2017, the ozone hole reached a size of 7.6 million square miles (19.7 square kilometers) before starting to recover. In 2016, the hole grew to 8 million square miles (20.7 square kilometers).

However, the current ozone hole area is still large compared to the 1980s, when the depletion of the ozone layer above Antarctica was first detected. Atmospheric levels of man-made ozone-depleting substances increased up to the year 2000. Since then, they have slowly declined but remain high enough to produce significant ozone loss.

NOAA scientists said colder temperatures in 2018 allowed for near-complete elimination of ozone in a deep, 3.1-mile (5-kilometer) layer over the South Pole. This layer is where the active chemical depletion of ozone occurs on polar stratospheric clouds. The amount of ozone over the South Pole reached a minimum of 104 Dobson units on Oct. 12 — making it the 12th lowest year out of 33 years of NOAA ozonesonde measurements at the South Pole, according to NOAA scientist Bryan Johnson.

“Even with this year’s optimum conditions, ozone loss was less severe in the upper altitude layers, which is what we would expect given the declining chlorine concentrations we’re seeing in the stratosphere,” Johnson said.

A Dobson unit is the standard measurement for the total amount of ozone in the atmosphere above a point on Earth’s surface, and it represents the number of ozone molecules required to create a layer of pure ozone 0.01 millimeters thick at a temperature of 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) at an atmospheric pressure equivalent to Earth’s surface. A value of 104 Dobson units would be a layer that is 1.04 millimeters thick at the surface, less than the thickness of a dime.

Prior to the emergence of the Antarctic ozone hole in the 1970s, the average amount of ozone above the South Pole in September and October ranged from 250 to 350 Dobson units.

What is ozone and why does it matter?

Ozone comprises three oxygen atoms and is highly reactive with other chemicals. In the stratosphere, roughly 7 to 25 miles (about 11 to 40 kilometers) above Earth’s surface, a layer of ozone acts like sunscreen, shielding the planet from ultraviolet radiation that can cause skin cancer and cataracts, suppress immune systems and damage plants. Ozone can also be created by photochemical reactions between the Sun and pollution from vehicle emissions and other sources, forming harmful smog in the lower atmosphere.

NASA and NOAA use three complementary instrumental methods to monitor the growth and breakup of the ozone hole each year. Satellite instruments like the Ozone Monitoring Instrument on NASA’s Aura satellite and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite on the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite measure ozone across large areas from space. The Aura satellite’s Microwave Limb Sounder also measures certain chlorine-containing gases, providing estimates of total chlorine levels.

The total amount of ozone in the atmosphere is exceedingly small. All of the ozone in a column of the atmosphere extending from the ground to space would be 300 Dobson units, approximately the thickness of two pennies stacked one on top of the other.

NOAA scientists monitor the thickness of the ozone layer and its vertical distribution above the South Pole by regularly releasing weather balloons carrying ozone-measuring “sondes” up to 21 miles (~34 kilometers) in altitude, and with a ground-based instrument called a Dobson spectrophotometer.

Classical scholars from the Cluster of Excellence “Religion and Politics” at the WWU have explored a rare bathing facility in southeastern Turkey from the time of the Roman Empire, and a magnificent basilica from Christian late antiquity.

“Our excavations in the ancient town of Doliche clearly show how a town flourished across epochs and religions in what was then northern Syria – from the Hellenistic period through Christian late antiquity to the early Islamic epoch”, said classical scholar and excavation director Engelbert Winter from the Cluster of Excellence, who was speaking at the end of the excavation season.

“The bath, decorated with splendid mosaics, was built in the 2nd or 3rd century AD, when public baths in Syria, unlike in the Latin West, were exceedingly rare. However, the bath was no longer in operation from as early as the 4th century AD”. People left the town as a result of wars and economic crises.

“A new heyday began under Christian auspices: the basilica was built, and the town, which had originally gained attention and become rich on account of the sanctuary of the Roman god Jupiter Dolichenus, became a bishopric”.

The excavation team has been conducting research since 2001 in ancient Doliche, which in the time of the Roman Empire housed the sanctuary of the prominent city god Jupiter Dolichenus. Up until 2016, the researchers published findings from all epochs of the 2,000-year history of the place of worship. Since last year, they have concentrated on the neighbouring urban area.

“Doliche is an ideal case study for the cultural, political and religious development of a town in ancient Syria”, said Winter. At first, Doliche changed dramatically through its integration into the Roman Empire.

“The bathing facility shows how Roman customs were adopted and shaped the townscape”.

Comprising around 2,000 square metres, the bathing facility was of considerable size. “It has the sequence typical of Roman times: cold, warm and hot baths”. An approximately 150-square-metre room with swimming pool has now been partially uncovered, along with parts of the heating system under the floor. The finds, as well as mosaics, date the facility to the 2nd to 3rd century AD. When the bath fell into disuse in the course of Christianization, the lime and marble building material was processed in a large lime kiln, and then used for new constructions.

Destruction by earthquake

It was during this stage in the late 4th century AD that the newly discovered three-nave basilica was built, as Winter points out. “The onset of Christianization changed the internal structure of the town. The changing townscape reveals a new Christian identity”.

The discovery of the church represents a special opportunity, as very few church buildings within a city have thus far been archaeologically investigated in this region, which is of great importance for early Christianity. What test trenches dug south of the church this year mainly brought to light were rooms that researchers interpret as being ancillary rooms and extensions of the church complex.

“This makes the church facility much more spacious than expected. Its further excavation promises to make a significant contribution to our understanding of religious life and sacral architecture in the northern Syria of late antiquity”. Further finds from the area around the church indicate that it was probably destroyed by an earthquake in the 7th century. The town itself was finally abandoned in the 12th century.

According to Winter, the aim of further research is to obtain “a high-resolution picture of the city and how it developed”.

“We are faced here with a monumental task that we are tackling systematically with the help of state-of-the-art methods and research questions. It is not so much about exposing magnificent buildings as it is about generating the most precise information possible on how people lived their lives through the ages”, added assistant professor Michael Blömer from the University of Aarhus.

“What did the inhabitants consume, what did their everyday lives look like, how did the economy function? And how did the town react to crises like wars, natural disasters, but also political and religious changes?”

By Steve Herman

Using Air Force One as a campaign shuttle, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Ohio, Indiana and Missouri on Monday, the eve of midterm balloting that is perceived as the biggest referendum yet on his presidency.

Trump acknowledged as much earlier in the day on a conference call with supporters, saying the media views Tuesday’s election as a referendum on him.

“If we don’t have a good day, they will make it like it’s the end of the world,” Trump said. “Don’t worry. If we do have a good day, they won’t give us any credit.”

There were 200,000 people listening on the call, according to Brad Parscale, the Trump/Pence campaign manager.

“There’s a great electricity in the air,” Trump told reporters just before boarding Air Force One for the flight to Ohio. “I think we’re going to do very well.”

Speaking in Cleveland — where he labeled candidates of the Democratic Party as “socialists” — Trump told the crowd that Tuesday is their chance “to send a message to the Democrat mob” and “stop the radical resistance in its tracks.”

At a second rally of the day in Fort Wayne, Indiana, the president continued that theme, asserting that “if the radical Democrats take power, they will take a wrecking ball to the economy and the future of our country.” He also called on the attendees to vote for Republicans “to end the assault on America’s sovereignty” by Democrats.

Trump then traveled to Cape Girardeau in the state of Missouri for a third, similar political event.

“It really is unprecedented,” said political science professor David Cohen at the University of Akron in Ohio. “No president has ever campaigned as much in the midterms as Trump has.”

Cohen told VOA that Trump’s strategy is unwise.

“His controversial remarks — all it does is energize the base of the Democrats and the independents to get out there and vote against him,” Cohen said.

Others see the Trump events — where Air Force One serves as the backdrop for appearances in airport hangars — of significant value to the governing party.

“The kind of people that come to them are not typical Republicans. They are Trumpsters. Getting that segment of the electorate out in 2016 was critical to Trump’s win in 2016, and getting them out to vote in 2018 can only help Republicans,” said University of New Hampshire political science professor Andrew Smith.

“Midterm elections are all about differential turnout,” Smith, who is also director of the UNH Survey Center, told VOA. “Democrats have been motivated to vote ever since Trump won in 2016, while Republicans have been far less motivated. Anytime Trump goes anywhere, he commands media attention and is therefore driving the news cycle.”

Obama appearances

Trump has been getting some competition for media attention in recent days from his predecessor, Barack Obama.

The two-term Democrat has been making campaign appearances on behalf of state and congressional candidates, a break with tradition where former presidents are rarely active in midterm elections so soon after leaving office.

“President George W. Bush has been largely absent from all politics, as was his father. And Bill Clinton waited some time after he left office before he got on the campaign trail. And when he did, it had the additional benefit of helping his wife’s campaign,” Smith noted. “Obama’s barnstorming is something that we have not seen, and I think it is an indication that he takes the Trump presidency as a rebuff of his own performance as president.”

In northern Virginia on Monday, Obama said “how we conduct ourselves in public life is on the ballot,” a lightly veiled criticism of Trump and some prominent Republican candidates.

“What I’m seeing all across the country is this great awakening,” Obama added, standing alongside incumbent Senator Tim Kaine and congressional nominee Jennifer Wexton in a campaign office. “In that great awakening, I feel hopeful.”

Predictions

Prominent pollsters predict the Republicans will retain control of the Senate. While cautioning some key congressional races are statistical dead heats, pollsters note more House districts trending toward the Democrats in recent days and expect Republicans will lose their majority in that chamber.

Such an outcome would halt the president’s ability to get key legislation approved, and would put the chairpersons’ gavels of committees in the hands of Democrats certain to launch an array of investigations into the Trump administration.

While Obama will deserve some of the credit for helping to drive turnout for the Democrats, according to Cohen, “it was going to be a bad election, anyway, for the president just based on his unpopularity throughout the country.”

Thus, if Republicans lose control of the House on Tuesday, Cohen contends, “the blame should fall squarely on Trump’s shoulders.”

S troops at the US-Mexico border are laying down approximately 1,000 feet of razor wire fending along the Texas side of the Rio Grande river underneath the McAllen-Hidalgo International Bridge, as three separate caravans of Central Americans make their way north in the hopes of claiming asylum.

Soldiers participating in “Operation Faithful Patriot” are working with US Customs and Border Patrol officers to install the fending, according to the Department of Defense.

During a Saturday campaign rally in Montana, President Trump said “Mexico is trying, they are trying but we’re different, we have our military on the border,” adding “And I noticed all that beautiful barbed wire going up today. Barbed wire, used properly, can be a beautiful sight.”

Around 900 troops have arrived at the US-Mexico border since the Trump administration announced the deployment on October 26.

The president vowed the forces would block the caravans, which contain thousands of migrants, from entering US turf.

Military units are heading to outposts along the border from Texas to California.

After saying about 5,000 active-duty troops would be deployed as part of Operation Faithful Patriot, Trump on Wednesday boosted the number from 10,000 to 15,000.

A separate contingent of about 2,100 National Guard troops had already been deployed to work with Border Patrol in anticipation of the caravans, which have about 7,000 people total, according to the Defense Department. -NY Post

The original caravan continued on foot Saturday after Mexico rescinded an offer to bus them to Mexico City, citing a lack of water. They are currently making their way through the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, and are around 750 miles from the US border. The caravan’s numbers have dropped from 7,000 to around 4,000 over the last few weeks, while around 3,000 have applied for asylum in Mexico and others haver returned home.

On Friday night, Veracruz governor Miguel Ángel Yunes offered bus rides to the country’s capital, however he quickly rescinded the offer, blaming maintenance work on Mexico City’s water supply which he said left 7 million people without water over the weekend.

Mexican officials, meanwhile, have ceased to provide bus, truck and van rides to the group.

A second caravan of around 1,000 to 1,500 people from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador entered Mexico last week and is around 1,000 miles from the southern US border, while a much smaller caravan also entered Mexico from Guatemala on Friday – wading across the Suchiate River after Mexican authorities blocked access over a bridge.

The Boston Globe and the Philadelphia Inquirer published a 5400-word article on November 4 discussing how the bishops have handled sexual abuse matters since the Dallas norms were published on this subject in 2002.

The front-page story in the Globe shows a photo of four bishops: Bishop Robert Finn, Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, Archbishop John Nienstedt, and Bishop Richard Malone. It says all of them “resisted calls for transparency.” This is factually inaccurate: only McCarrick has done so.

Regarding Kansas City-St. Joseph Bishop Finn, who resigned in 2015, the article says, “He never alerted authorities about photos of young girls’ genitals stashed on a pastor’s laptop. He kept parishioners in the dark, letting the priest mingle with children and families.” It notes that he was found guilty (of a misdemeanor, it should be noted) for failing to report the priest’s suspected child abuse.

Here is what the newspapers did not tell their readers.

• In 2010, a computer technician found disturbing crotch-shot photos of girls fully clothed on the computer of Father Shawn Ratigan; there was one naked photo of a non-sexual nature.
• Even though there was no complainant, a police officer and an attorney were contacted by diocesan officials. They both agreed that the single naked photo did not constitute pornography.
• After Ratigan attempted suicide, he was evaluated by a psychiatrist—at the request of Finn. Ratigan was diagnosed as depressed, but not a pedophile.
• Finn put restrictions on Ratigan, which he broke. The diocese then contacted the authorities, though it had no legal mandate to do so.
• When it was found that Ratigan was again using a computer, an examination revealed hundreds of offensive photos.
• The Vicar General, Msgr. Robert Murphy, then called the cops (Finn was out of town).
• A week later Ratigan was arrested.

Here is what the newspapers did not tell their readers.

• In 2004, three years after being ordained, Wehmeyer made sexually suggestive remarks to two men, 19 and 20, but they never complained. The archdiocese found out and sent the priest for counseling. Two years later he was found cruising in an area known for gay sex. Though neither of these instances involved breaking the law, they were the kind of red flags that concerned Haselberger.
• Regarding the abuse of the two boys in 2010, the mother of the boys told a priest about it in early June 2012. He urged her to call the cops. On June 14, she provided the details and was told to report it to the archdiocese. On June 19, she met with church officials and one of the boys was questioned. On June 20, the police were contacted. On June 21, the priest was relieved of his duties. In September, the Ramsey County Attorney commended the archdiocese saying, “They did the right thing.”

On what basis do these two newspapers claim that Archbishop Nienstedt “resisted calls for transparency”? Furthermore, there is no report of Nienstedt voluntarily stepping down in 2014 when he was accused of touching a young man’s buttocks in 2009 while posing for a Confirmation picture. He was exonerated by the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office on March 11, 2014.

The newspapers say that Buffalo Bishop Malone covered up cases of abuse. They cite no examples, relying on allegations made against him by his former executive assistant, a person who has quickly turned into an activist.

“I’m a man who can make a mistake,” Malone is quoted as saying in the November 5 edition of the Buffalo News, “and that is what I did in two cases where we had allegations of misconduct by a priest with adults.” When asked about a New York State Attorney General probe, he said, “I’m glad that is happening. Absolutely, bring it on.” That doesn’t sound like someone who is “resisting calls for transparency.”

It must also be said that the priest on “60 Minutes” who recently accused Malone of keeping in ministry eight or nine priests who should be kicked out of the priesthood, Father Bob Zilliox, has suddenly gone mute when asked to name them. He should be investigated.

There are many other parts of the story as reported by the Boston Globe and Philadelphia Inquirer that deserve rebuttal, but for now let it be said that their account is incomplete, misleading, and in some cases, downright irresponsible.

Let’s face it. Most politicians use the mass media to obfuscate. Voters who don’t do their homework, who don’t study records of the politicians, and who can’t separate the words from the deeds will easily fall into traps laid by wily politicians.

In 2002, Connecticut Governor John Rowland was running for re-election against his Democratic opponent, William Curry. Again and again, the outspent Curry informed the media and the voters about the corruption inside and around the governor’s office. At the time, the governor’s close associates and ex-associates were under investigation by the U.S. attorney. But to the public, Rowland was all smiles, flooding the television stations with self-serving, manipulative images and slogans. He won handily in November. Within weeks, the U.S. attorney’s investigation intensified as they probed the charges Curry had raised about Rowland. Rowland’s approval rating dropped to record lows, and impeachment initiatives and demands for his resignation grew. He was prosecuted, convicted and imprisoned. Unfortunately, enough voters were flattered, fooled, and flummoxed to cost Bill Curry the race.

In 2004 Tom Frank, a Kansas author, wrote: “The poorest county in America isn’t in Appalachia or the Deep South. It is on the Great Plains, a region of struggling ranchers and dying farm towns, and in the election of 2000, George W. Bush carried it by a majority of greater than 75 percent.” Inattentive voters are vulnerable to voting against their own interests. They are vulnerable to voting for politicians who support big business and ignore their interests as farmers, workers, consumers, patients, and small taxpayers. Big Business will not spur change in a political system that gives the fatcats every advantage. Change must come from the voters, and here’s how:

President Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress are masters at flattering voters and lying about their positions on issues ranging from health care to the minimum wage. Before you vote, rid yourself of all preconceived, hereditary, ideological, and political straitjackets. Use two general yardsticks for candidates for elective office: Are they playing fair and are they doing right?

Stay open-minded. Avoid jumping to conclusions about candidates based solely on their stance on your one or two top issues. Pay attention to where these politicians are on the many other issues that profoundly affect you and your family. If you judge them broadly rather than narrowly, you will increase your influence by increasing your demands and expectation levels for public officials. There are numerous evaluations of their votes, easily available on the Internet.

Know where you stand. A handy way to contrast your views with those of the incumbents and challengers is to make your own checklist of twenty issues, explain where you stand and then compare your positions, the candidates’ votes and declarations. Seeing  how their positions or their actual record matches up to your own positions makes it harder for politicians to play you. Compare candidates with their votes or declarations.

Ask the tough questions. These are many issues that politicians like to avoid. They include questions about whether candidates are willing to debate their opponents and how often, why they avoid talking about and doing something about corporate power and its expanding controls over people’s lives, or how they plan specifically to shift power from these global corporate supremacists to the people. After all, the Constitution starts with “We the People” not “We the Corporations.” The words “corporations” and “company” are never mentioned in our Constitution!!

Ask candidates to speak of Solutions to the major problems confronting our country. Politicians often avoid defining solutions that upset their commercial campaign contributors. Ask about a range of issues, such as energy efficiency, livable wages, lower drug prices, massive government contractor fraud, corporate crimes against consumers, workers and investors, reducing sprawl, safer food, and clean elections.

Ask members of Congress to explain why they keep giving themselves salary increases and generous benefits, and yet turn cold at doing the same for the people’s frozen minimum wage, health insurance, or pension protections.

All in all, it takes a little work and some time to become a super-voter, impervious to manipulation by politicians who intend to flatter, fool, and flummox. But this education can also be fun, and the pursuit of justice can offer great benefits to your pursuit of happiness.

Such civic engagement will help Americans today become better ancestors for tomorrow’s descendants.

A recent report by the Government of Indonesia claiming an increase in orangutan populations of more than 10 percent from 2015 to 2017 is at odds with many recently published and peer-reviewed scientific studies on the subject, according to a letter in Current Biology on November 5.

For instance, a study in Current Biology earlier this year suggests that, between 1999 and 2015, Borneo lost more than 100,000 orangutans. Most scientific data indicate that the survival of orangutan species continues to be seriously threatened by deforestation and killing, the researchers write.

“All three species of orangutan are Critically Endangered and on a steep decline. Their numbers are not increasing as indicated by the Indonesian government report,” says Erik Meijaard (@emeijaard) of Borneo Futures and the IUCN Species Survival Commission.

The Indonesian government’s report focused on nine monitoring sites including national parks. Their data suggest the orangutan population doubled in one year, going from 1,153 orangutans in 2015 to 2,451 individuals in 2016.

But, Meijaard and colleagues write, “it is biologically impossible for an orangutan population to double its size in a year.” They go on to note that some of the sampling sites are used for orangutan introduction and relocation, and thus any increase in those areas was inevitably preceded by a reduction elsewhere.

The sampling plots considered in the government’s report represent less than 5 percent of the Bornean and Sumatran orangutan’s range. They miss the Tapanuli orangutan altogether and include only protected lands. As a result, it is “scientifically unjustified to extrapolate population trends from these sampling sites to the total range of all three species.”

Meijaard says it is unclear what this report will mean for the future of orangutans. The Indonesian government is now in the process of developing a new 10-year action plan for orangutan conservation, he notes.

“If the government thinks that orangutan populations are increasing, it calls for completely different strategies compared to those required for dealing with rapidly decreasing populations,” Meijaard says. “It is important that the government realizes that populations remain in decline. Therefore, a new approach to orangutan conservation is needed.”

To understand why populations in both Indonesian and Malaysian Borneo are still decreasing, the researchers have been soliciting input from governments, corporations, and other stakeholders to determine which strategies have been effectively implemented. They say a more optimistic, forward-looking approach to orangutan conservation will require better collaboration and selection of strategies proven to reduce threats to remaining orangutans.

Although dairy pastoralism once made Mongolian steppe herders successful enough to conquer most of Asia and Europe, the origins of this way of life on the East Asian steppe are still unclear. Now an international team of researchers led by the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History has uncovered evidence that dairying arrived in Mongolia as early as 1300 BC through a process of cultural transmission rather than population replacement or migration.

Two thousand years before the armies of Ghengis Khan, populations in Mongolia were already living a pastoralist, dairying lifestyle – similar to that which would enable future populations to conquer most of Asia and Europe. Although pastoralism has long been the primary means of subsistence on the East Asian steppe, the origins of this tradition have been unclear. Now, an international team of researchers has uncovered the earliest direct evidence to date of dairying in Mongolia – around 1300 BC – by tracking milk proteins preserved in tooth tartar. The livestock that were milked – cattle, sheep and goats – are not native to the region and were likely introduced by Western Steppe herders. However, ancient DNA evidence from Bronze Age Mongolians indicates minimal genetic contributions from Western Steppe herders, suggesting that the livestock and dairying technologies were transferred by cultural processes rather than a major population migration, in contrast to the pattern seen in Europe. The findings are published in PNAS.

Cultural and technological transfer without population replacement

Researchers analyzed human remains from six sites in northern Mongolia associated with the Deer Stone-Khirigsuur Complex (DSKC). “The DSKC is well-known for their monumental architecture, including upright stones with deer and other motifs, and large stone mounds, often associated with one or more human burials,” explains co-first author Shevan Wilkin of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History. “In some locations, these structures are highly conspicuous and visible from great distances.” The DSKC is the earliest culture associated archaeologically with pastoralism in Mongolia, with sites containing bones of sheep, goat, cattle and horse as early as the 13th century BC. However, to date no direct observations of dairy consumption had been made in this area.

The researchers conducted genome-wide analyses on 22 Bronze Age individuals, whose remains were radiocarbon dated to the late Bronze Age, ca. 1300-900 BC. Whole genome sequencing was further performed on two of these individuals. The results of these analyses showed that these Bronze Age Mongolians were genetically distinct from Western steppe herders of the same time period, indicating that the appearance of dairying in Mongolia was not the result of population migration and replacement.

“These findings suggest that neighboring Western steppe herders directly or indirectly introduced dairy pastoralism to local indigenous populations primarily through a process of cultural exchange,” explains Choongwon Jeong, co-first and co-senior author, of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History. “We don’t see evidence for the kind of large-scale population replacement by Western Steppe herders that has been observed in Bronze Age Europe or in the nearby Altai-Sayan region.”

Analysis of dental calculus shows clear evidence of dairy consumption

The researchers also analyzed the dental calculus of nine individuals using proteomics. Milk proteins were found in the calculus of seven individuals, confirming that dairy products were consumed as early as 1300 BC. Both whey and curd proteins were recovered, and could be identified as coming from sheep, goats and cattle. Interestingly, none of the individuals was lactase persistent – genetically capable of digesting the milk sugar lactose. Most Mongolians today are also not lactase persistent, despite consuming a large proportion of their diet as dairy products.

“The 3,000-year legacy of dairy pastoralism in Mongolia poses challenging questions to grand narratives of human adaptation and natural selection,” explains Christina Warinner, senior author, of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History. “As a non-lactase persistent dairying society with a rich prehistory, Mongolia can serve as a model for understanding how other adaptations, such as cultural practices or microbiome alterations, may be involved in enabling and maintaining dairy-based cuisines around the world.”

A new study by the University of Birmingham has found that seven in every eight children who have their tonsils removed are unlikely to benefit from the operation.

Researchers analysed the electronic medical records of over 1.6 million children from more than 700 UK general practices dating between 2005 and 2016. They found that out of 18,271 children who had their tonsils removed during this time, only 2,144 (11.7 per cent) had enough sore throats to justify surgery.

The researchers at the University’s Institute of Applied Health Research concluded that their evidence, published today (Nov 6th) in British Journal of General Practice, showed that annually 32,500 children undergo needless tonsillectomies at a cost to the NHS of £36.9 million.

What’s more, they found that many children who might benefit from having their tonsils removed are not having the surgical procedure. They found that of 15,764 children who had records showing sufficient sore throats to undergo a tonsillectomy, just 2,144 (13.6 per cent) actually went on to have one.

Current UK health policy, based on the best scientific evidence, is that to meet the criteria to benefit from a tonsillectomy children must suffer from either more than seven documented sore throats in a year; more than five sore throats per year for two successive years; or three sore throats per year for three successive years.

The researchers found that, of those who had undergone a tonsillectomy, 12.4 per cent had reported five to six sore throats in a year; 44.7 per cent had suffered two to four sore throats in a year; and 9.9 per cent had just one sort throat in a year.

Tom Marshall, Professor or Public Health and Primary Care at the University of Birmingham, said: “Research shows that children with frequent sore throats usually suffer fewer sore throats over the next year or two. In those children with enough documented sore throats, the improvement is slightly quicker after tonsillectomy, which means surgery is justified.

“But research suggests children with fewer sore throats don’t benefit enough to justify surgery, because the sore throats tend to go away anyway.

“Our research showed that most children who had their tonsils removed weren’t severely enough affected to justify treatment, while on the other hand, most children who were severely enough affected with frequent sore throats did not have their tonsils removed. The pattern changed little over the 12 year period.

“Children may be more harmed than helped by a tonsillectomy. We found that even among severely affected children only a tiny minority of ever have their tonsils out. It makes you wonder if tonsillectomy ever really essential in any child.”

The spread of extremism and widening socio-economic inequality have led to a serious complication in Indonesian society. Wasatiyyah Islam, a comprehensive concept of ‘Middle Way’ Islam, must be reaffirmed to solve the complex problems confronting Indonesia.

By KH Ma’ruf Ami*

The commitment of promoting Wasatiyyah Islam – or ‘Middle Way’ Islam − in Indonesia implies reaffirming the implementation of moderation in the practice of the Islamic faith, which has long been a key characteristic of the mainstream Indonesian Muslim. This is significant as a response to the spread of extremism, be this of the religious liberal or the religious radical kind.

The interplay between Muslim majority, democracy, and a heterogeneous population has resulted in a dynamic relationship between Islam and state in Indonesia. In this regard, Indonesia adheres neither to theocracy nor secular principles but instead leans towards consensus to manage the relationship between Islam and state based on Pancasila as the state ideology and 1945 Constitution.

Significance of Wasatiyyah Islam in Indonesia

Wasatiyyah Islam thus serves as the relevant expression and understanding of Islam within the idea of state in Indonesia. The relationship between Islam and state has experienced prolonged debate since before the proclamation of Independence in 1945. It has undergone various phases marked by rebellion, social resistance, tough debates in the House of Representatives, before finally becoming a national consensus.

Wasatiyyah Islam is defined as ‘Middle Way’ Islam, characterised neither by liberal nor radical religious thought. Wasatiyyah Islam promotes tolerance, balance, equality, consensus, reformism, and all things that take the middle path to materialise khairu ummah (the best people).

The re-emergence of the importance of Wasatiyyah Islam in Indonesia can be traced to several factors. In 2014, during the fasting month of Ramadan, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) declared its establishment in Syria and campaigned for the Caliphate system using violence and war. Various states were labelled as “illegitimate” as well as thaghut (idolatrous), and should be fought. The influence of ISIS in Indonesia is considerably strong as seen in the series of terror acts by their supporters.

Even before ISIS, the Caliphate ideology that is contrary to democracy and nation state had already emerged, such as the non-violence model like Hizbut Tahrir, and the violence-based model like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) which has strong transnational links in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia. JI served as the mastermind of terror acts prior to ISIS since 2000.

Wasatiyyah Islam in Indonesia’s Early Years

During the earlier era of independent Indonesia, there was also an anti-state movement called Darul Islam/Indonesian Islamic Army (DI/TII), which later transformed into the Indonesian Islamic State (NII) towards the end of Suharto’s New Order.

All these movements aimed to realise the aspiration of political Islam, perceiving that the Muslims had been marginalised or suppressed by the anti-Islam regimes in power even though the majority were Muslim. The movements were not only domestically generated, but were also stimulated and propelled by global dynamics under the banner of ukhuwah Islamiyah (Muslim brotherhood), or the protection of akidah (faith), including from the agenda of liberalism.

In fact, the perception of these extremists is false. The aspirations of political Islam in Indonesia have been accommodated in various forms, such as policy, legislation, regulation, and state facilitation. Various religious public services are also facilitated such as religious dispute settlement through arbitration, Haj services, zakat, endowments (wakaf), Islamic banking, Islamic-based non-bank financial institutions, and halal certification. Indeed, Shariah is being carried out in the province of Aceh, which enables the comprehensive application of Islamic law.

Two Opposing Trends

The view that the Indonesian government is anti-Islamic and is a manifestation of idolatry continues to be echoed throughout the post-Suharto period of Reformasi due to the flowering of freedom of expression and ease of information flow enabled by technological advances through social media.

Besides, Indonesian Muslims are faced with two main phenomena: the first is the strengthening of the exclusivist, intolerant, rigid and scripturalist groups who freely express hostility, and even violence against fellow Muslims; and the second is the consolidation of groups that tend to be permissive and liberal.

As a result, Islamic movements increasingly tend to shift to the extreme left or right poles. While the left pole tends toward liberalism, pluralism and secularism, the right pole fosters radicalism and narrow fanaticism in religion.

Reconsolidation of Islamic Moderation

Consequently, a number of Islamic organisations in Indonesia gravitated around various Islamic moderation movements that are compatible with democracy and the nation-state. Before MUI established the Wasatiyyah Islamic paradigm which emphasised anti-extremism, the two largest Islamic organisations, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah, carried out similar consolidations in their respective congresses.

The 2015 NU Congress promoted the concept of Islam Nusantara – loosely translated as ‘Islam of the Archipelago’. This emphasised the accommodation of local wisdom and innovation, in response to various transnational movements that were not friendly to local dynamics even though these are not inconsistent with Islam. The 2015 Muhammadiyah Congress proclaimed Islam Berkemajuan – loosely translated as Progressive Islam − which emphasised concern for the competitiveness and productivity of Muslims, while no longer questioning the national consensus.

After the two congresses, through a “National Consensus”, the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) in August 2015 enacted Wasatiyyah Islam. It became the spirit and guideline for policy formulation at every level.

Wasatiyyah Islam serves as the ‘Middle Way’ Islam to materialise khairu ummah (the best people). The characteristics of Wasatiyyah Islam are tawassuth (middle way), tawazun (balance), I’tidal (straight and firm), tasamuh (tolerance), musawah (egalitarian and non-discriminatory), syura (consensus), islah (reform), aulawiyah (emphasising priority), tathawwur wa Ibtikar (dynamic and innovative), and tahadhdhur (civilised).

In February 2018, there was a reaffirmation of the National Consensus at the Indonesian Muslim Congress (KUII) VI in Yogyakarta, followed by various Islamic organisations, universities, pesantren (Islamic boarding school), which produce the “Risalah Yogyakarta” (Yogyakarta Paper).

Rejection of Caliphate

I call this national consensus as mitsaq − the term used in the Qur’an to describe the agreement between Muslim and non-Muslim communities. Indonesia is therefore a Darul Mitsaq. Muslims are committed to maintain the agreement with various elements of non-Muslim nations and a pluralistic life together, as exemplified by the Charter of Medina by the Prophet Muhammad.

To keep the Republic of Indonesia intact, a combination of paradigms between ukhuwah Islamiyah (Islamic brotherhood) and ukhuwah wathaniyah (national brotherhood) remains significantly important. This paradigm must be echoed, including to anyone who has no national commitment, let alone extremists and radicals.

In this frame of mind, the concept of the caliphate is consequently rejected. Not because it is not Islamic, but because it contradicts mitsaq — the agreement. Similarly, the concept of mamlakah (kingdom) and imarat (emirate) will be rejected in Indonesia. With the republic state system, it has led to a certain openness in the Indonesian government to absorb Sharia elements through an agreed system of legislation (taqnin). In fact, there have been many laws containing Sharia that have been ratified.

Economic Justice: New Indonesian Economic Stream

In addition to the commitment to mitsaq, economic justice (ekonomi berkeadilan) needs to be strengthened in accordance with the fifth principle of Pancasila, the Social Justice for All Indonesians. Economic inequality is a perennial problem in Indonesia where the majority lives below average. Economic inequality must continue to be reduced towards the level of social justice.

In so doing, the synergy among three powers — government, communities, and entrepreneurs — is compulsory. In this sense, the strategy must not weaken the established entrepreneurs. Rather, it must strengthen the weak by involving the established entrepreneurs to collaborate and partner with the weak.

I call this framework Arus Baru Ekonomi Indonesia (The New Indonesian Economic Stream) as confirmed in the 2017 Congress on Economic and Community Empowerment in Jakarta. This is in line with President Joko Widodo’s policy to redistribute assets and encourage partnerships between business conglomerates and small communities, including the pesantren (Islamic boarding school) world and various Islamic organisations, as the largest part of the Indonesian people.

This new framework is necessary due to the failure of Arus Lama (Old Stream) which emphasises more on strengthening the upper-class economy with the objective that the trickle-down effect can work. However, the reality shows the opposite trend.

The New Economic Stream is in line with the spirit of economic inclusion. Despite the absence of collateral, weak economic communities must be able to access capital and can be guaranteed by a fund-based guarantor institution, such as charities and endowments. There are also microfinance institutions facilitated by the government in many pesantren, which can reach the lower segments again.

Globalising Wasatiyyah Islam

Given its importance, Wasatiyyah Islam must not be seen as exclusive to Indonesia. Wasatiyyah Islam can also be used to foster harmony and stability in the Southeast Asian region. Considering the rising threat of transnational terrorism in the region, mainstreaming Wasatiyyah Islam is an important step to prevent and counter extreme religious understanding.

With the support of governments, communities, and education sectors, various factors that can trigger the emergence of extreme movements and threaten the mainstreaming of Wasatiyyah Islam can be anticipated and prevented together.

*KH Ma’ruf Amin is Chairman of the Indonesian Ulama Council (2015-2020) and Rais ‘Am (Chairman) of Nahdlatul Ulama Central Board (2015-2018). This is an excerpt of his Distinguished Lecture at RSIS in Singapore on 17 Oct 2018, as translated by Dedi Dinarto of the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

The latest IPCC special report released in early October 2018 estimated that global temperature increase may reach 1.5°C anytime between 2030 and 2050. This is much sooner than the end of the century timeframe set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Will this report lead to more ambitious and aggressive emission mitigation efforts?

By Margareth Sembiring(

The 48th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-48) held in early October 2018 released a summary report for policymakers highlighting that the Earth may get warmer by 1.5°C above pre-industrial level anytime between 2030 and 2050. The report further demonstrates that while a temperature increase of 1.5°C will result in more hot days and extreme heat events, changes in rain patterns and volume, biodiversity loss, increase in ocean temperature and acidity, decrease in oxygen levels, and bring negative impacts on health, food security, water supply, human security and economic growth, letting it rise further to 2°C will cause even more catastrophic outcomes.

The emphasis on 1.5°C and comparison to 2°C are modelled after the 2015 Paris Agreement that aims to “keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.” The report, therefore, provides a review of the current status of global emission pathways pertaining to the 1.5°C goal. The final message is then clear: the Earth potentially has only 12 years left before hitting the 1.5°C mark; as such, countries must urgently make concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure that global warming does not go beyond it thereafter.

Implications on Southeast Asia

Although this latest report may sound alarming, the consequences of a changing climate have been reported years back. In its regional assessment report published in 2014, the IPCC has identified that the temperature in Southeast Asia has risen since the 1960s, and there are more hot days and warm nights and less cool weather now. It also rains more although the pattern varies across different regions and seasons.

Furthermore, the changing climate will lead to drought in lowland, biodiversity loss, wildfires and smoke exposure, sea surface temperature increase, and dengue outbreaks. Among all, flooding poses the biggest climate risk in Southeast Asia. This is consistent with the reality on the ground. In the last two decades, climate-related disaster events especially floods and storms made up the most frequent and the most devastating disasters in Southeast Asia. Since 1998, floods and storms have affected close to 250 million people and incurred a total cost of about US$89billion in the region.

Except for the shortening window gap, therefore, the warnings that come with the 1.5°C report do not really come as a big surprise. In fact, the earlier-than-expected attainment of the 1.5°C limit is also hardly surprising. The Climate Tracker Action noted that emissions pathway based on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) pledge submitted as of November 2017 has 90% likelihood to exceed 2°C by 2100.

Similarly, although climate change-related policies and regulations have exploded exponentially throughout the globe from 60 in the 1997 to more than 1,200 in early 2017 (Grantham Research Institute 2017), policy pathways have 97% likelihood of going beyond 2°C by 2100. As such, at the current going rate from the time the 2015 Paris Agreement was signed, the world is already projected to miss the 2°C mark at the end of the century.

Most Climate-Vulnerable States in the World

The expansion of climate change laws and policies also took place in Southeast Asia. At the international level, all Southeast Asian countries are signatories of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement. At the regional level, a common attitude towards climate change is reflected in the Declaration on ASEAN Post-2015 Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change Agenda.

At the national level, countries have put in place relevant policies and laws for green growth and sustainable development targeting carbon-emitting sectors including energy, transportation, and land use. This is despite Southeast Asia emitting only about 7.7% of total global carbon emission in 2014 (CAIT Climate Data Explorer 2018).

Southeast Asian countries have also formulated climate adaptation policies and action plans. Although they have identified vulnerable sectors and segments of society and included measures to increase resilience in the face of climate change, some Southeast Asian countries are still regarded as the most climate vulnerable states in the world.

According to the 2017 German Watch report, Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand ranked the third, fifth, eighth and ninth among the top 10 countries having the highest long-term climate risk index measured from 1997 to 2016. This implies that much more needs to be done to achieve societal adaptation and resilience against the fast rising global temperature.

More Ambitious Policy Needed

The 1.5°C summary report that the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres referred to as “an ear-splitting wake-up call to the world” prescribes some recipes including, among others, a major and sweeping overhaul in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and building) and industrial system that result in emission reductions by 2030. The IPCC advises that this is technically possible but it needs to happen sooner than later because the costs of doing so will only get much more prohibitive if it starts later.

This prescription is, again, nothing quite new. The numerous green growth plans and climate mitigation policies and regulations across Southeast Asia have incorporated this approach in various ways. The more critical questions will then be: have they been fully implemented and are they sufficient? More ambitious and aggressive climate mitigation policies and actions may be needed to save the Earth from getting warmer too much too soon.

Similarly, as the consequences of the changing climate are certain, more ambitious and aggressive climate adaptation policies and actions are needed to save the population and the environment from climate-induced disasters. Will the 1.5°C summary report generate the desired reactions from relevant parties, particularly the governments?

*Margareth Sembiring is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Here it is. See for yourself the terrifying “caravan” advancing through Mexico from Honduras, set to “invade” the US, bringing, according to President Trump and the reactionary media that support him, “rapists, killers, Arab terrorists, and diseases.”

This “caravan,” according to a report in the UK newspaper theIndependent,  is actually an assemblage of several thousand desperately poor Hondurans whose country, besides being one of the poorest in Latin America, is beset by a dictatorial government installed by a US-backed military coup that ousted a popularly elected progressive president back in 2009. It is a society that is wracked by drug-related violence and gangs and military thugs, and that has never really recovered from having been commandeered as a base by the US for covert warfare against neighboring Sandinista-ruled Nicaragua.

The Independent says this supposedly threatening throng of refugees is actually composed of mostly young men and women traveling by foot with young children, many of them barefoot, or in rickety strollers — people who have banded together for protection as they travel northward towards the southern US border through countries like Guatemala and especially Mexico that are hostile towards them.

The very term “caravan” is being deliberately used to mislead. It’s early use was of course to describe travelers in the desert — a subtle suggestion that these desperate Latinos might be Arabs, a group that evokes irrational fear among some in the US ever since 9-11.  But this is no caravan. There are no vehicles or pack animals. It’s just a mass of people trudging by foot to the US border to present themselves as refugees.

Thanks to the right-wing propaganda parroting the president, they will be met there at the crossing points not just by border agents, but by a massive military presence, which by the time they cross the remaining 900 miles they have yet to travel, could number as much as 15,000 US troops — the largest domestic military mobilization since perhaps the Civil War or the crushing of the Bonus March on Washington by disgruntled veterans of World War I when US troops were called into the Capital to fire on and break up the protest by veterans demanding a promised but unpaid bonus for their service overseas.

Trump, trying to rally his rabid, racist base, has called on those troops, who worryingly, are are backed up by gangs of armed right-wing militia groups and solo xenophobic and armed “defenders of the border,” to “fire on” any of the refugees who might decide to throw rocks at them.  In this, the president is taking a page from Israeli Defense Force occupiers of the West Bank in Palestine, where heavily armed Israeli soldiers frequently shoot and kill even young Palestinians who dare to throw rocks at them to defend their families’ homes and land.

Let’s be clear:  After what the US has done to Honduras (and Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua) over the years, it’s understandable that  people there would be trying to get away from their own destroyed country. They are, most of them, probably appropriate candidates for refugee status in the US as they are simply fleeing violence, political repression and worse.

There was a wonderful photo someone posted on Facebook that puts this current group of refugees — a drop in the bucket of US immigration over the years — in perspective. Taken at the turn of the last century, over 120 years ago, it shows a boat, its deck swarming with hundreds of desperate refugees from Europe, arriving in New York harbor, with the caption:

That pretty much says it all.

This talk about a “dangerous caravan” of criminals preparing to “invade” the US  is just a shameless political hustle by an amoral president desperate to hang onto control of a Congress currently run by a spineless and morally bankrupt Republican Party establishment.

The danger is that Trump’s and the right-wing media’s rhetoric is spinning out of control and that the arrival of thousands of refugees and the stationing of armed troops and private armed citizens could turn into a bloody slaughter of innocent people just trying to save their families from a slow death in their home country of Honduras.

As the author of the destruction of Honduras, the US owes these refugees much better than that.

This entire nation — a people who, with the notable exception of the Native Peoples from whom it was stolen through violence by immigrant hordes who came to these shores escaping similar privations in their home countries, are all descended from immigrants — should be ashamed of the moral cesspool it has become.

(For a great antidote to the depressing situation developing at the border, read what two former US Army Rangers, Rory Fanning and Spenser Rapone, are stying publicly to solders ordered deployed to the border to block the Honduran refugees, suggesting they refuse President Trump’s deployment order.)

By Michael Lelyveld

Major setbacks for China’s private sector have driven many companies into the safety of state financing and control, posing problems for reform policies that could last for years.

On Oct. 20, the South China Morning Post published a detailed account of the “privatization in reverse, or re-nationalization” that has swept the private sector as a result of financing problems.

The troubles have been aggravated by China’s stock market slump, the steepest since 2015.

By mid-October, at least 32 listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges had sold controlling interests to the state at various levels, including six takeovers by the central government.

The SCMP story followed an earlier report by the official Shanghai Securities News, cited by The New York Times, that 46 private companies had agreed to sell shares to state-controlled firms so far this year.

The pace has picked up as the markets have worsened, suggesting there may be more state sector expansion to come.

Since September, at least 14 listed private companies have sold controlling stakes to central, provincial or local governments, the SCMP said, based on data from financial services firms Shanghai Wind and China International Capital Corp. (CICC).

The double-digit slide in share prices due to “economic headwinds” is only partly responsible for the shift toward state ownership. Pressures from financial risks and government policies have been building for years.

An unchecked boom in private investment at home and abroad from hidden financing sources in 2014 led to a government crackdown in a pattern of excess on both sides.

The spree in asset acquisitions by high-flying corporations and conglomerates like HNA Group, Anbang Insurance Group and CEFC China Energy Company Ltd. came to a series of abrupt halts, marked by official warnings, forced sales, prosecutions and ousters of top officials.

This year, the reactions have been felt more broadly across the private sector with complaints of limited access to bank loans, due in part to the government’s belated drive to reduce financial risks.

Government officials have repeatedly promised to support private companies, pushing back against reports that state banks prefer to make loans to state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

“This kind of understanding and practice is completely wrong,” Vice Premier Liu He told the official Xinhua news agency on Oct. 19.

“There must be no irresolution about working to consolidate and develop the public sector,” Liu said. “And there must be no irresolution about working to encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public sector.”

Still important to the economy

In the wake of reports on the private sector’s woes, state media have escalated estimates of its importance to the economy.

Non-state businesses contribute more than 50 percent of China’s tax revenue, 60 percent of gross domestic product, 80 percent of urban employment, and 90 percent of new jobs, Xinhua said.

But the reported bias in state bank lending policies favoring SOEs has set the stage for the private sector’s growing problems following the stock market plunge.

The trend threatens to reverse decades of at least rhetorical dedication to economic reforms, exemplified by the rise of web-based and tech-driven giants like Alibaba and Baidu.

Shares in many of the new entrepreneurial ventures have been hit hard, giving rise to a debate over whether business without state control should be allowed to continue at all.

Meanwhile, centrally-controlled SOEs have done relatively well following a series of government-directed mergers and consolidations that had been expected to curb their influence over the economy.

Instead, with the benefit of better access to state bank financing, the SOEs have reported a 23.9 surge in total profits of 1.05 trillion yuan (U.S. $151.6 billion), gaining 23.9 percent in the first seven months of the year. SOE revenues of 16 trillion yuan (U.S. $2.3 trillion) rose 10.6 percent from a year earlier, state media said.

While voicing support for the private sector, President Xi Jinping seemed to leave little doubt in recent comments about where the balance of power in the economy should lie.

“Such statements as ‘there should be no state-owned enterprises’ and “we should have smaller-scale state-owned enterprises’ are wrong and slanted,” Xi said during a visit to a China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) facility, according to The Times.

At a meeting with entrepreneurs in Beijing last Thursday, Xi spoke in favor of private enterprise in more measured terms, saying that “the country will unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public sector,” Xinhua reported.

The official English-language China Daily quoted Xi as saying that “the strengthening of the public sector does not contradict support for the private sector.”

In a commentary Saturday on Xi’s meeting, Xinhua promised that “private enterprises are about to embark on a new journey and embrace a brighter future.”

“With the new commitments to supporting the private sector, more favorable policies are expected to be rolled out soon,” it said.

The government’s real intention

The ascendancy of the state sector will fuel arguments about the government’s real intention in promoting its public-private partnership (PPP) initiative for the past several years.

On its face, PPP investments were supposed to draw modern management methods into the SOEs along with fresh capital from the private sector to make them more competitive, as well as profitable.

With the recent tipping of the scales toward the state, it may now become clearer that the intention was to co-opt private firms and incorporate their resources all along.

One argument against that interpretation is that the stock market slump and its consequences were unforeseen.

China’s excesses in investment, shadow bank financing, and regulatory crackdowns seem likely culprits for the private sector’s current problems, although more PPP deals may be a result.

But the growth of private share sales to the state and asset swaps to state banks will raise suspicions over the government’s motives.

The question is whether it is engaged in a necessary bailout similar to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis, or something else.

Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said that so far, the government’s response looks more like a TARP-style rescue than the result of a long-term plan.

But even if the boost for state control is unintentional, the impact on private business could last for years.

“I would call it a bailout more than a takeover,” Scissors said. “But the key question is, if this is supposed to be temporary, how does it get reversed?”

“Will the state sell its shares when the market is deemed sufficiently stable? That may not happen for a long while,” he said.

“What we’ll probably get is a very slow, tentative sale of state shares, which means some of these companies have been nationalized for years to come,” Scissors said.

Indirect relief measures

In the meantime, the cabinet-level State Council and the central bank have rolled out a series of complex indirect relief measures for private companies that rely largely on the bond market.

On Oct. 22, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would provide “funding support” to smaller lenders in backing the bond issues of private enterprises “by offering part of the initial capital,” Xinhua reported.

Although details of the assistance were unclear, Bloomberg News reported that the PBOC planned to give 10 billion yuan (U.S. $1.4 billion) to China Bond Issuance Co., which provides guarantees for notes sold by small and medium-sized companies, as well as bond insurance.

China’s bond market has also suffered in the economic downturn. In late September, Reuters reported that 25 issuers had defaulted on 60.1 billion yuan (U.S. $8.6 billion) worth of bonds so far this year.

The value of the defaults rose 56 percent over all those recorded in 2017, Reuters said.

Among other measures, the PBOC will issue 150 billion yuan (U.S. $21.5 billion) in “relending and rediscount credits” to encourage financing for “micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises” with liquidity problems, Xinhua said.