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Investments In Azerbaijan’s Oil Sector Grew By Almost Fourth In 2013

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By Trend News Agency

By Emin Ismayilov

In 2013 over 4.82 billion manat invested in Azerbaijan’s oil sector, that is by 24.2 per cent more than the indicator in 2012, the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan said in its report released on Jan.23.
According to the report, in December 482.7 million manat was invested in oil sector against 430.5 million manat invested in December 2012.

In total, according to State Statistic Committee data, the total volume of capital investments in the industrial sector in Azerbaijan in 2013 constituted 7.08 billion manat, that is by 16.4 per cent more than the same indicator of 2012.

Of these funds, about 4.7 billion manat was invested in extractive industry, that is by 20.6 per cent more than the indicator in 2012.

Investments in production, distribution and supply of electricity,by gas and heat in 2013 constituted 390.5 million manat, that is by 31.5 per cent less than the indicator in 2012.
The official exchange rate for Jan.23 is 0.7843 AZN/USD.

The article Investments In Azerbaijan’s Oil Sector Grew By Almost Fourth In 2013 appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Justin Bieber Arrested On Drunken Driving In Miami

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By Albany Tribune

There are various news reports Thursday morning that pop star Justin Bieber, 19, was charged with drunken driving, resisting arrest and driving without a valid license.

According to CNN, Bieber was arrested after Miami police saw the pop star street racing Thursday morning and was booked into a Miami jail after failing a sobriety test.

Miami Beach Police Chief Raymond Martinez was quoted as saying that the pop star had “made some statements that he had consumed some alcohol, and that he had been smoking marijuana and consumed some prescription medication.”

According to the Miami Herald, citing police sources, when Bieber was stopped by police in his Lamborghini, he “barraged officers with a string of F-bombs, babbled incoherently, refused to get out of his car and, when he finally stepped out, declined to take his hands out of his pockets.”

According to The Miami Herald, Bieber’s musical entourage reportedly used their cars to block traffic to create a drag strip for the pop star, who had been on a party spree in South Florida.

According to media reports, the other driver, identified as R&B singer Khalil Sharief, was charged with DUI.

The article Justin Bieber Arrested On Drunken Driving In Miami appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Shabak Case Of The Terribly Convenient Al Qaeda Terror Conspiracy – OpEd

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By Richard Silverstein

The Shabak announced today (the Independent’s story here and Christian Science Monitor’s here) with great fanfare, and wide international press coverage, that it had broken a major Al Qaeda terror conspiracy that was in “advanced stages.” The plan was quite complex, even convoluted, and involved plans variously to cause a bus to overturn and spray fleeing victims and rescue workers with gunfire and, when that plan didn’t pan out, execute simultaneous terror attacks on the International Convention Center (Binyaney Ha’Umah) and the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv.

The latter target made my ears perk up. It’s bad enough to plot to kill Israelis, but if you can add Americans as victims you’ve hit the terror jackpot. It serves the same function as the 9/11 attacks in orchestrating an almost permanent national sympathy among Americans for Israel’s draconian counter-terror policies. What better way to elicit U.S. sympathy for Israeli interests than to thwart a terror attack on Americans in Israel?

To be clear, I’m not denying the possibility that there were three Palestinians who got it into their heads that they could organize a major international terror attack inside the most highly guarded garrison state in the world (with the exception of possibly North Korea and a few others).  But what I am questioning is just about everything else.  First, the Shabak claims the plot was in advanced stages of preparation:

The agency said it the plot was in “advanced planning stages” but gave no further information on how close the men got to carrying it out.

I’ve queried my own Israeli source with high-level political, military and intelligence contacts, who confirms the plot was not what it’s made out to be in the above passage.  In other words, not in an advanced state of preparation.

The alleged conspirators carried out their plot via Skype and Facebook.  They’d never met in person.  They’d never met the international masterminds allegedly from Chechnya who were to help them facilitate the plot.  They’d never received any terror training nor left the country.  Hell, they didn’t even have criminal or security records.  So how far along could they have been?

To clarify further, I’m not saying the Shabak isn’t to be commended if they did foil such a plot.  That’s their job.  But what I am questioning is the timing of public announcement about the foiling of the plot.  This news is timely in two ways: first, there is currently a highly dysfunctional international meeting in Geneva attempting to resolve the Syrian civil war.  The brickbats flying back and forth there between the major powers who can’t agree who should be attending; and the Syrian opposition which wasn’t coming, but then was, then almost wasn’t again, and finally was; remind the world of what an incredibly dangerous place the region is currently: especially Israel’s border with Syria.

An even more important aspect of the timeliness of this story is the equally contentious Israeli-Palestinian peace talks led by U.S. secretary of State John Kerry.  As these negotiations enter into a more intensive phase in which real territorial compromises are being urged by the Americans upon the reluctant Israelis, reminding the Americans of just how tenuous Israel’s security is on its eastern flank, certainly strengthens Israel’s hand.  Or at least, that’s how the Israeli security hawks would see it.

Let’s remember defense minister Bogie Yaalon going apoplectic in calling Kerry “messianic” and “obsessed” because, poor delusional leftist that he is, he believes Israel should give up the Jordan Valley.  In my post of a few days ago, I quoted the absolute scorn and derision with which Yaalon greeted American assurances that its eastern border with Jordan and Syria would be the most secure of any in the world thanks to the latest electronic sensors, satellites and the like.  Recall as well, Bibi Netanyahu’s saying again last week Israel couldn’t possibly leave the Jordan Valley because of the danger of infiltration and terror attacks “from the east.”  Isn’t it convenient that precisely such a planned attack rears its ugly head at this propitious moment?

It always pays for Israel to remind the world that it is the last bulwark against Islamist fundamentalism.  In this case, Israeli intelligence officials have even managed to plant the idea that Al Qaeda’s top leader is implicated in this specific plot:

“This is the first time that Ayman al-Zawahri was directly involved,” he [Avi Oreg, Aman (IDF intelligence) veteran] said. “For them, it would have been a great achievement.”

Here’s the actual “evidence” to support the claim:

According to Shin Bet officials, the recruiter’s claim that he worked for al-Zawahiri, which is unconfirmed, is based on statements made by the suspects during questioning.

So we have, not the conspirators’ direct word and certainly not any evidence from the original source of the claim, but a Shabak officer claiming the suspects claimed (which in itself is labelled as “unconfirmed”) that the alleged mastermind claimed to have a direct conduit to al Zawahiri.  Wow.  That’s a ton of claims.  If I had as detailed a map pointing me to the location of gold in an Alaskan mountain stream, I’d be a rich man sometime before the sun incinerated the earth in a few billion years.

Oreg also invokes the specter of Caucusus terrorism by claiming, again without any proof, that the masterminds of the entire affair would be coming from Chechnya:

Oreg said that many foreign fighters fighting the Assad regime are from Chechnya and predominantly Muslim parts of Russia and speculated that the militants with the phony documents would be from there.

The real proof of the pudding regarding the seriousness of this story is in the U.S. response.  If our embassy was in any danger whatsoever, or this plan had truly been as advanced as Shabak is claiming, you would not hear the following almost nonchalant response from State Department representatives:

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said US investigators and intelligence officials were not yet able to corroborate the Israeli information and declined comment on specifics of the case.

“Obviously we’re looking into it as well,” Harf told reporters Wednesday. “I don’t have reason to believe it’s not true. I just don’t have independent verification.”

She said there were no plans to evacuate the US Embassy in Tel Aviv and was not immediately aware of stepped-up security measures there in light of the arrests.

Do you think if there was any danger to U.S. personnel the Shabak would not have informed the U.S. before it collared these alleged terror masterminds so that we could take necessary and appropriate precautions?

There’s also an element of deja vu to this.  Last September 11th (get the reference?), when Bibi felt threatened by Iran’s “charm offensive” at the UN, the Shabak “broke” another major terror plot (irony alert) that involved a poor shlep of an Iranian taking pictures of the U.S. embassy which were supposedly meant to be used in a plot to blow the building sky-high.  Those damn Iranians!

So while there are those in the western media who will report this story with blaring trumpets as an example of Israel as the bastion of civilization among a sea of Islamist firebrands bent on its destruction; a lot of caution is in order.  Israel’s security apparatus is exquisitely aware of the role that a well-placed terror plot can play in impacting the political and security environment.  In other words, all is not what it appears when it comes to the Israeli national security state.  While it faces very real dangers from which it needs protection, it is not above exploiting those alleged dangers for political benefit.  All this must be kept in mind when considering the real meaning and weight of this story.  Caution and skepticism is always warranted.

My very strong hunch is that this entire episode is meant much more for show than for actual substance.  Which is unfortunate, because if the Shabak stuck to doing its job and nothing more, it would be taken much more seriously as a security agency.  As it is, it’s practiced in the art of grandstanding and theatrics, as much as the genuine deterrence of terror.

This article appeared at Tikun Olam

The article The Shabak Case Of The Terribly Convenient Al Qaeda Terror Conspiracy – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Manmohan Singh’s Last Summit Meeting With Shinzo Abe – Analysis

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By Observer Research Foundation

By K.V. Kesavan

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is arriving in New Delhi on 25 January to participate in the annual summit meeting with his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh. In addition, he has also been designated as the Chief Guest of the Government of India at the Republic Day celebration on 26 January. Abe’s visit comes soon after the historic visit made by Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko about two months ago. Regarded as a steadfast friend of India, Abe has been involved in the whole process of institutionalising the on-going annual summits. As prime minister, this is the fourth time that he will participate in the apex meeting along with Dr Singh. 2006 was a landmark year in the evolution of the bilateral partnership in that both Abe and Singh launched the strategic and global partnership at the time of their summit meeting. In the 2007 summit held in New Delhi, Abe came out with his well-known speech at the Indian Parliament on the confluence of the two seas. In fact, he was one of the earliest leaders to speak about Indo-Japanese partnership in the context of a broader Asia.

His first tenure in office (2006-7) was very brief; yet within that short period, he was able to project the partnership as an important element in Japanese diplomacy and there was no question of his political successors departing from that. Though Prime Minister Taro Aso signed the Declaration on Security Cooperation with Dr Singh in 2008, his successor and DPJ leader Ichiro Hatoyama supported it by going ahead with signing the Action Plan contemplated earlier by Mr. Aso. The following two governments led by DPJ leaders Naoto Kan and Yoshihiro Noda continued to support the on-going partnership with no hesitation.

Even when the DPJ party was in power during 2009-12, Abe maintained his close links with India having visited the country once or twice in his private capacity. But since his return to power, he has been attaching utmost importance to Japan’s ties with India. In one of his well-publicised articles, he described India as a significant part of Asia’s “security diamond”. Subsequently, he has made references to India’s role in the Asia-Pacific region in his policy speeches at the Japanese Diet. The National Security Strategy (NSS) issued last month states the following: “India is becoming increasingly influential, due to what is projected to become the world’s largest population, and to high economic growth and potential. India is also geopolitically important for Japan, as it is positioned in the center of sea-lanes of communication. Japan will strengthen bilateral relations in a broad range of areas including maritime security, based on the bilateral Strategic and Global Partnership.”

From all reports, it is quite clear that the present visit would mainly be devoted to consolidate the partnership and draw up a fresh road map for future developments. The much anticipated agreement on civil nuclear cooperation is not likely to happen during the current visit. In the May 2013 joint statement, both Singh and Abe agreed to accelerate negotiations for a speedy conclusion of an agreement. Subsequently, two rounds of talks were held both in Tokyo and New Delhi, but progress towards an agreement unfortunately floundered on the same old positions taken by both countries. Japan is still insisting on the need for India to give an undertaking that it will not conduct any more nuclear tests in the future. In response, India states that the assurances that it gave to the US and other NSG countries at the time of the US-India nuclear cooperation agreement would be adequate for them to sign an agreement.

While Prime Minister Abe is keen to finalise a nuclear agreement, he cannot altogether ignore public opinion within his own country where all nuclear reactors have closed down. In that sense, Japan has gone totally non-nuclear. Further, the upcoming Tokyo’s gubernatorial election which is likely to be focused on the nuclear issues could further divide the sentiments of the people. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who still commands considerable influence with the people, has not only openly expressed his views against nuclear reactors, but is going to support another former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa who is contesting for the governor’s post. Hosokawa strongly advocates that Japan should adopt a zero nuclear option. Many reporters have acknowledged that if Mr. Koizumi decides to campaign for Hosokawa, he can create serious problems for the ruling LDP candidate.

Defence cooperation is another area where the two countries have seen great potential for closer interactions. In the May 2013 joint statement, both Abe and Singh expressed their satisfaction at the expanding security relations in areas such as joint naval exercises. They agreed to explore the prospects of Japan selling its indigenously made US-2 amphibious aircraft to India. They also set up a joint working group to examine the modalities of cooperation on the issue. Given Tokyo’s extreme sensitivity to arms sales to foreign countries, its decision to sell aircraft to India came as a big surprise to everyone. In December last, Japanese Defence minister Itsunori Onodera came to India to conduct talks. In the last week of December, the two joint work groups met to discuss the subject. It was reported that Japan was inclined to sell the US-2 aircraft as a civilian product which could be turned into a military hardware. It is still not clear whether the deal will be finalised before the arrival of the Japanese Prime Minister.

Apart from the two main issues mentioned above, the rest of the summit talks will go smoothly on expected lines. Both countries will discuss and accelerate the on-going infrastructure projects including Delhi-Mumbai Freight Corridor and Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor. It is reported that Japan is likely to make a firm commitment to the Chennai-Bangaluru Corridor. In addition, Japan is likely to ask India to speed up its supply of rare earth minerals. Though an agreement was signed between the two countries a couple of years ago, progress on that front has been very slow, and Japan is keen to diversify its sources of those minerals. It may be recalled, when China stopped its supplies of the minerals to Japan two years ago in the midst of a territorial wrangle on the Senkaku islands, Japan signed agreements with India and a few more countries to minimise its dependence on China.

In sum, the present visit of Abe will mark one more significant step in the direction of consolidating the India-Japan partnership. Since Singh has announced that he will hand over power soon after the May 2014 general elections, this will be the last summit meeting between him and Abe. Both will however have the satisfaction of having nurtured a partnership which has become a significant element in the stability and security of the Asian region.

(Prof K.V. Kesavan is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)

The article Manmohan Singh’s Last Summit Meeting With Shinzo Abe – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Italy’s Berlusconi Faces New Investigation

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By PanArmenian

Milan prosecutors say they are investigating former Premier Silvio Berlusconi for allegedly attempting to derail investigations into his infamous “bunga bunga” parties, the Associated Press reports.

The Milan prosecutor’s office launched the investigation Thursday, Jan 23, against Berlusconi, two of his long-time lawyers and some 40 other people, mostly aspiring showgirls who attended the parties. The investigation centers on allegations that Berlusconi paid off the women to lie to court officials.

The new investigation comes as Berlusconi has re-emerged on the political scene as the center-right’s powerbroker, despite having been booted from Parliament on a tax fraud conviction.

In the “bunga bunga” case, Berlusconi is appealing a conviction of paying for sex with an underage minor and using his influence to cover it up.

Berlusconi vowed in a statement to remain on Italy’s political scene.

The article Italy’s Berlusconi Faces New Investigation appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Secret Plans For A Diplomatic Intifada – OpEd

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By Neville Teller

Some time after April 2014, when the nine months allotted to the current round of peace talks expires, Israel will face a disastrous Palestinian diplomatic assault on its legitimacy, backed by the many countries friendly to Palestine, claims the authoritative political website Debkafile.

Despite the US “framework agreement” due to be published shortly, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas is likely to wait until the full nine months are over before launching the diplomatic intifada predicted by Debkafile – if only to ensure the release by Israel of the final batch of Palestinian terrorist prisoners which was part of the deal for joining the talks in the first place. So, it is believed, April 30 is the key date on which the PA will cast aside the cloak of seeking a peace agreement with Israel.

It is no surprise, therefore, that on January 21, Abbas is reported as saying: “It was agreed that the negotiations would continue for nine months. There is not talk about an extension. We need to focus on the remaining time and not think about prolonging the talks.” His chief negotiator, Saeeb Erekat, also dismissed the idea that the peace talks could extend beyond the April deadline. The Palestinians, he asserted, would not agree even to a one-day extension.

Soon after April 30 then, if the intelligence reports are to be believed, all hell will be let loose against Israel, diplomatically speaking. Teams within the PA organization, we are told, are even now concluding plans to enlist 63 international organizations for a massive and co-ordinated anti-Israel boycott, each in its own sphere of activity. Among them is the International Court of Justice at the Hague, which is to be asked to indict Israel for hundreds of alleged war crimes and the practice of apartheid.

This carefully designed operation will, if the reports are to be believed, sit nicely with events planned by the little known United Nations Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People (CEIRPP) – yes, it really does exist, and has done so since 1975, when it was set up under a resolution of the UN General Assembly.

In 1977, following the establishment of CEIRPP, the General Assembly provided it with a fully-fledged secretariat, designated the Division for Palestinian Rights, as part of the UN’s Department of Political Affairs. Its mandate includes organizing international meetings and conferences, a publications programme, and setting up an online information system called the United Nations Information System on the Question of Palestine (UNISPAL). Each year, on or around November 29, CEIRPP organizes an International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People.

One day of solidarity with the Palestinian people is now apparently too modest a gesture for the UN. So under their wide and elaborately constructed umbrella, Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon announced to the world that January 16, 2014 marked the start of an International Year of Solidarity with the Palestinians. A detailed program of events for the year has not yet been announced, but at the launch the UN’s Palestinian Rights Committee adopted a 12-page manifesto which proposes a global campaign to blanket the airwaves, social media, legislative and judicial forums, and schools, with a propaganda exercise aimed at promoting “international awareness of the obstacles to the ongoing peace process… including the settlements, Jerusalem, the blockade of Gaza, and the humanitarian situation in the occupied Palestinian territory.”

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Ron Prosor, was not fooled into believing that the exercise was anything but a massive effort to delegitimize the state of Israel, and that the UN was compliant in the exercise.

“The UN is used as a tool in the service of Palestinian propaganda,” he said. “Instead of trying to end the campaign of Palestinian incitement against Israel, the UN provides a stage for Palestinian productions for the media. While the Palestinians seek UN solidarity, they continue to educate an entire generation to hate Israel and deny the connection between the Jewish people to their homeland. It’s time to stop the hypocrisy and ask, where is solidarity with the victims of terrorism in Israel and their families?”

If the threatened outbreak of a Palestinian diplomatic war by the PA occurs, potentiated, as it would be, by the UN’s own efforts via CEIRPP and the program of activities associated with the International Year of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, Israel’s legitimacy and international credibility will be gravely jeopardized.

Is the Israeli government aware of the brewing storm – and if so, is it planning to do anything about it?

Counter-measures of a sort are, in fact, in hand – though whether they are likely to be adequate against the massive offensive being planned is open to question.

On January 21, Ze’ev Elkin, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, disclosed that he was heading a new, sustained and pro-active effort to combat the worldwide, and growing, attempt to delegitimize Israel through the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement.

“I believe the most effective way to combat delegitimization,” he wrote, “is a pre-emptive strike. We must not be limited to reacting to threats but rather must work actively to make Israel a positive part of the public consciousness.”

For this purpose, Israel’s Foreign Ministry has created “Face of Israel”, a joint venture between the Foreign Ministry and diaspora Jewry. Based on the successful model of Birthright, the educational organization that sponsors heritage trips to Israel for Jewish young adults, this new organization will be responsible for fighting Israel’s image battle internationally, under the guidance of the Foreign Ministry.

“We chose this model of operation,” says Elkin, “a joint venture between Israel and diaspora Jewry, because we deeply believe that Israel’s positive image and the threat of delegitimization, with its anti-Semitic tinge, is a global Jewish challenge. I believe that we, along with our partners in diaspora Jewry, have the knowledge, expertise and skills to combat delegitimization.”

A diplomatic intifada, no less than an active terrorist one, needs to be countered forcefully. In light of the anti-Israel initiatives already in full operation, such as academic and commercial boycotts, to say nothing of what is being planned both openly by the UN and so far in secret by the PA (if what we read is indeed the case), friends of Israel must hope that “Face of Israel” is as effective as Ze’ev Elkin presumes it will be.

Israel has been given fair warning. “Too little, too late,” as an epitaph on its counter measures, would be difficult to justify.

The article Secret Plans For A Diplomatic Intifada – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Derailing Disarmament: US Senate Hinders Negotiations With Iran – OpEd

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By Eurasia Review

By Rene Wadlow

A resolution sponsored by Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey with both Republican and Democratic Senators as co-sponsors — Nuclear Weapon-Free Iran Act (S1881) —sits as a ticking time-bomb in Senate desk draws, which could explode after the January 28 State of the Union message. The resolution has the potential to hinder, perhaps derail, the difficult negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. A six-month interim agreement reached in Geneva among Iran and the P5 plus one (US, Russia, China, France, UK and Germany) is to start on January 20, 2014 for six months.

In the agreement reached, Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond five percent — a level sufficient for energy production but not for military use. Iran’s current stock of uranium enriched to a weapon-grade twenty percent will be diluted or converted. These promised actions will be inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In exchange, the major powers will suspend certain sanctions on Iran and stop pressuring other countries to limit trade with Iran.

During the six months, negotiations for a more permanent agreement will continue. The building of trust between Iran and the P5 and the fulfillment of the conditions of the interim agreement are crucial for the continuing negotiations. Currently, there is a minimum of trust and confidence about the level of good faith on both sides. Within Tehran and Washington, there are hardliners who distrust on principle and who would not be unhappy to see negotiations fail, perhaps opening a door to military action.

The proposed US Senate resolution with its twin floating around in the House of Representatives is both unnecessary and potentially a major hindrance to good faith negotiations — a good example of the wrong methods proposed to meet appropriate goals.

A nuclear-weapon free Iran was first proposed in 1974 by the government of the Shah of Iran at the time when the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran was created. The Shah called for making the entire Middle East a nuclear-weapon free zone on the model of the 1967 Treaty of Tlatelolco for Latin America — negotiations having started among Latin American states shortly after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

In the early 1970s, the dangers of nuclear-weapon proliferation in the Middle East were real. Israel already had nuclear weapons; Libya had nuclear ambitions. There was talk of nuclear-weapon interest in Iraq. Egypt had technical knowledge, and Saudi Arabia had the funds to import nuclear technology. A nuclear-weapon-free Iran was to be a major element in the creation of a Nuclear-weapon Free Middle East.

Thus in 1974, Iran along with Egypt proposed in the UN General Assembly the creation of a Middle East Nuclear-weapon Free Zone. The Islamic Republic of Iran has continued, after the end of the Pahlavi regime in 1979, to call in yearly General Assembly resolutions for such a zone.

The establishment of nuclear-weapon free zones is both a regional non-proliferation and security-building measure and a step toward the eventual global elimination of nuclear weapons. Nuclear-weapon free zones normally include binding regional de-nuclearization provisions, verification, and compliance mechanisms. Thus, they rid entire regions of the specter of nuclear weapons and increase regional security.

It is understood that Iranian leadership on a Middle East Nuclear-weapon Free Zone is part of its ambitions to play a role of regional leadership. However, it is also true that no other Middle East state has had such a consistent policy on the issue with the possible exception of its General Assembly partner, Egypt. Now is the time to work with Iran for a true non-proliferation regime as an edifice of treaties, norms, safeguard mechanisms and institutions. A minor but useful first step is to bury the irresponsible Senate resolution.

Rene Wadlow is the Representative to the United Nations, Geneva of the Association of World Citizens. This article appeared at Toward Freedom and reprinted with permission.

The article Derailing Disarmament: US Senate Hinders Negotiations With Iran – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Governance In Northern Province Of Sri Lanka: Stresses And Strains – Analysis

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By IDSA

By Gautam Sen

CV Wigneswaran, Chief Minister of Northern Province of Sri Lanka has lamented in a recent public speech on January 10, organized by a Colombo-based think tank that Colombo is not appreciative of the essence of issues of governance in his province. The Chief Minister has opined that Sri Lanka Army (SLA) is hindering governance in the northern province and that post-war context demands a different approach to governance.1 Wigneswaran has further highlighted that militarization is affecting resettlement of the internally displaced Tamils, the SLA has taken over private land and even agricultural activities and as a result “locals have to purchase produce from their own land cultivated by Army”.2 The Chief Minister has also spoken on his recurring difference with the provincial Governor, Maj Gen (retd) G.A.Chandrasiri inter-alia alleging inadequate administrative structure and staff with the province as well as his administrative staff being “used to the Governor`s ways”3 are posing hurdles. Wigneswaran has, however, admitted that there has been some progress in these matters after his recent interactions with President Rajapakse.

The essence of the problem which the Chief Minister has highlighted is that there is dualism in administration in the province and that the officials of the provincial administration are often facing contradictory or overlapping instructions from the provincial government and the Governor. Some may view this as an outcome of a structural problem of the 13th Amendment. This aspect seems to have got accentuated in the Northern province as against other provinces in Sri Lanka, because of the fundamental differences between the Rajapakse regime and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on the issue of devolution and rights of Tamils on the one hand and the Army and the TNA on the other, rendering the functioning of the northern provincial government difficult. This, according to the Chief Minister, is affecting the implementation of the policies. There are, however, reports that the present governor is not unpopular with the provincial bureaucracy including Mrs. R. Wijiayaludchumi, the chief secretary. On the contrary, there are media reports that the chief secretary has been receiving threats for not being cooperative with the TNA executive.

Wigneswaran has been having a political tussle with governor Chandrasiri even before September last year when elections brought the TNA to power and has frequently expressed his uneasiness towards the governor. The stand of Wigneswaran does not seem to arise on matters of principle because during the last presidential elections in Sri Lanka he had supported Sarath Fonseka, a retired general, against Rajapakse.4 Despite the hangover of the past, the Chief Minister and his ruling political alliance seems basically intended to ensure a more effective control of the political executive over the provincial bureaucracy. The problems are systemic because of the very limited political and administrative devolution affected to the northern province by the Rajapakse government.

It is, therefore, essential to codify the executive instructions for administering the northern province under some statutory rules issued at the provincial level with concurrence of the central government. The proposed executive instructions may apply to all the provinces. Such a measure may even be supported by the UNP and some of the other non-Tamil political parties. This may seem an apparent anomaly with statutory rules to be operative in the province suggested to be issued with central government concurrence (which should be exercised through the governor). However, there may not exist any alternative because of some grey areas in the devolution process and the de-facto overlapping jurisdiction being exercised by the northern province`s chief minister and the governor, as cited above. The statutory rules should not leave any scope for cognizance of directives or advice from the provincial governor to the provincial officials. Article 154 of Sri Lanka’s Constitution read with the 13th Amendment does not seem to pose any impediment in this regard. The only point of interface should be at the provincial apex level, i.e., between the chief minister and the governor. Unresolved or contentious issues thereafter may only be mediated at the level of the central government under a consensus. Without such an institutional arrangement, a virtual subversion of the limited devolution to the northern province would actually be taking place.

The issues at stake are significant from the standpoint of economic empowerment of the agrarian Tamil people, ensuring sustainable means of livelihood for them and overall development of their violence ravaged province, and most importantly the unity of the country. Not only the Tamil parties of Sri Lanka but some of the mainstream political parties of that country including the progressive elements like Sri Lanka Sama Samaja and Nava Sama Samaja Party have an important role to play towards ensuring that the limited devolution process in Sri Lanka.

A mature handling on the part of Wigneswaran will be necessary so that the constitutional structure is not eroded and a constant dialogue ensues between the provincial political executive and the Rajapakse administration. Attempts by the Wigneswaran government to pressurise the centre by invoking Article 154B to withdraw the governor is unlikely to yield desirable outcomes. In fact the focus should be on effective governance in the existing limited functional areas devolved.5

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

1. The Hindu: New Delhi: January 12, 2014.
2. Ibid
3. Ibid
4. www.dgsjeyaraj:com: December 18, 2013.
5. www.LankaNewspapers.com: December 22, 2013: Northern Province council all set to kick out Northern governor for ‘intentionally’ not acting as per constitution.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/GovernanceinNorthernProvinceofSriLanka_gsen_210114

The article Governance In Northern Province Of Sri Lanka: Stresses And Strains – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Lying For Cuomo – OpEd

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By William Donohue

New York State Governor Andrew Governor Cuomo continues to give legs to the controversy over a remark he made last Friday on the radio. Instead of apologizing, he has dug himself in deeper.

In the radio interview, Cuomo was speaking about New York Republicans who voted against the SAFE Act, a gun control law. Here is what he said: “Their problem is not me and the Democrats; their problem is themselves. Who are they? Are they these extreme conservatives who are right-to-life, pro-assault weapons, anti-gay? Is that who they are? Because if that’s who they are and they’re the extreme conservatives, they have no place in the state of New York, because that’s not who New Yorkers are.”

After Timothy Cardinal Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, criticized Cuomo on Tuesday, the governor’s spokesman, Matt Wing, complained yesterday that Cuomo’s comments had been “repeatedly taken out of context—what he actually said was that the state is a moderate political state with all views welcome.”

Wing’s defense is stunning. Not only is New York one of the most liberal states in the nation, more important, Cuomo manifestly did not say that the Empire state is a place where “all views [are] welcome.” He expressly said that those who disagree with his policies on abortion, gun control, and marriage, “have no place in the state of New York, because that’s not who New Yorkers are.” There is no welcome mat ther e.

In other words, Wing lied. He lied for Cuomo.

Contact Wing: matthew.wing@exec.ny.gov

The article Lying For Cuomo – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China’s Gorbachov Angst – Analysis

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By IDSA

By R. S. Kalha

It is a matter of historical record that the Soviet Union lasted for 74 years and on its demise the Soviet Communist Party also went into oblivion. The People’s Republic of China has been in existence for nearly 65 years and therefore if we were to follow the Soviet analogy; the People’s Republic should survive for at least another 9 years, if not more. The Chinese leadership is not only conscious of the analogy, but more importantly also aware of the significance of the dates. It is common knowledge amongst most that follow the evolution of Chinese policies closely that nothing concentrates the mind of the Chinese leadership more than to ensure that there is no repeat of the Gorbachov fiasco in China. It is said that the Chinese have commissioned a vast number of studies to determine what actually went wrong in the ex-Soviet Union and what led to its collapse.

The question that is asked quite frequently these days is what is the nature of the Chinese State? After so many years of following Deng Xiaoping’s reformist economic policies; it is certainly not any more a Marxist-Leninist State in the pure classical sense having abandoned most of Marxist-Leninist tenants. It is also not Confucian in nature, nor is it a functional democracy with free elections, free speech as is commonly understood. The present Chinese leaders themselves like to describe China as a ‘socialist state with Chinese characteristics.’

A common definition of socialism would indicate that it is a political doctrine under which the means of production would be in public [state] rather in private hands and that it would usher in a classless society where inequality would be minimized, if not totally eliminated. But that is hardly true of Chinese society today for under decisions taken at the 3rd Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] recently, not only is private ownership of the means of production emphasized having been allowed much earlier, but even the pricing policy would be ‘market driven.’ At best it can be surmised that China today has a mixed economy with a large number of state owned enterprises [SMEs], but that which is largely capitalist in its orientation.

The other pillar of socialism is that it is supposed to promote a classless society with inequality reduced to a bare minimum. In the China of today, to the contrary, there is increasing evidence of growing inequality. The gini co-efficient for China, the internationally accepted measure of inequality within a country, was between 0.46 and 0.49 in 2007; the highest for any Asian country1 and could be approaching 0.61.2 According to the UN, if the gini co-efficient touches 0.44, danger signals on internal stability should start flashing. This inequality is further highlighted by the fact that the richest 10 percent in China own 45 percent of the country’s wealth; whereas the poorest 10 percent own only 1.4 percent!3 At the same time large income disparities exist between urban and rural residents, between regions and in minority areas. In addition there are about 200 million internal migrant workers that are treated as second class citizens as they are denied health care facilities, on par with local residents, and their children often end up in sub-standard schools. The Chinese National People‘s Congress [NPC] has 83 billionaires as its members as opposed to none in the US Senate and House of Representatives. Recently both the New York Times and Bloomberg were denied visas for their Beijing staff as they had published the wealth of family members of former PM Wen estimated at US$2.7billion and present Chinese leader Xi Jinping estimated at US$ 376million.

Clearly therefore the China of today is not a socialist country, even though some sections of the leadership may encourage the singing of Maoist songs, glorification of Mao’s memory and the waving of the red flag. But what are the ‘Chinese characteristics’ of socialism that Deng first emphasized way back in 1978? The present governing group too underlines this aspect.

China is governed by 7 members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo as also 25 members who constitute the larger full Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP]. They are unelected, for they nominate themselves from the larger full Central Committee. From the apex level downwards there are thousands of officials, party members who control all the levers of power. They are all members of the CCP, the membership of which is increasingly seen as a vehicle for personal advancement, for pelf and for family gain. Determined not to commit the same mistakes as Gorbachov did in the ex-Soviet Union, the Chinese leaders have further tightened their grip on the levers of power, rather than to go in for even a limited version of democracy. The power of local party officials has also not been touched. The People’s Armed Police is increasingly deployed to quell any disturbance or arrest any suspected trouble-makers. The judiciary, subservient to the state, too plays its part in ensuring ‘domestic weiwen’ or the maintenance of stability. It is not surprising therefore that the annual budget of the People’s Police [US $ 124billion] is larger than the budget for the PLA [US $ 119billion].

In the present Chinese system the armed forces [PLA] are also instruments of the Party and firmly under its control through the mechanism of the Central Military Commission [CMC]. All decisions, pertaining to the PLA, must have the imprimatur of the CMC. And in the past the PLA has not hesitated to open fire on its own people as we witnessed in the Tienanmen massacre in 1989. It was the PLA that rescued the Party from going the Soviet way. Should the necessity ever arise again in the future therefore, the CCP can rely on the armed might of the PLA to control the situation.

The Chinese leadership also maintains a tight grip on the means of communications. Despite vast technological advances in the field of information technology, the Chinese leadership have instituted what is known as a ‘Chinese firewall’ to prevent the dissemination of information. . Information security has been elevated to become one of China’s core security concerns. According to Amnesty International, China probably has the largest number of journalists and cyber journalists in the world that are imprisoned. Although the number of internet users in China in 2013 is expected to reach 718 million or about 52 percent of the population, yet the internet content is vigorously censured. As the Vice-Minister from the State Internet Information Office, Ren Xianliang explained the aim is to have ‘cyberspace with Chinese characteristics.’ In addition all Chinese journalists are required to pass an ‘ideology’ exam before receiving accreditation.

However the Chinese state allows its citizens to travel and study abroad. Unlike the Soviet Union there are about about 83 million Chinese tourists that travelled abroad in 2012; mainly to Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Singapore and spent about US $102 billion. Similarly, again unlike the Soviet Union, there are about 1.4 million Chinese students studying abroad, of whom about 235,000 are in the US alone. This large turn-over is on an annual basis. Almost all of China’s neighbors where Chinese tourists largely gather are practicing democracies. China is the only major state in Asia [Vietnam apart] that is not a functioning democracy. Similarly while in the US, Chinese students would undoubtedly imbue the spirit of democratic functioning and witness at first hand the respect for individual freedom and rights. A fairly large number of students do return home.

Till China’s economy gallops along developing at 9 per cent annually, there is little chance that domestic dissidence will get out of hand. The dream of China emerging as a strong and one of the most powerful states in the world has strong and wide resonance amongst the Chinese people. But China’s Gorbachov moment will arrive if either the economy begins to slow down and shows irretrievable signs of faltering or China suffers a major foreign policy and military fiasco as did the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. If and when that ever happens, it will be interesting to see who emerges as China’s Gorbachov.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

1. Asian Development Bank Report, 2007.
2. The Economist, 15 December 2012.
3. The China Daily, 19 June 2005.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ChinasGorbachovAngst_rskalha_160114

The article China’s Gorbachov Angst – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Cloud-Based Mobility Services For European Cities

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By Eurasia Review

(CORDIS) — Since it reached mainstream around 2006, cloud computing has widely been acknowledged as the future of ICT. The possibilities seem endless, and researchers are coming up with new ideas and concepts at a head-spinning pace. Forget about ‘simple’ online storage capacity: the future of the cloud is all about real time services and applications, a trend reinforced by the increasing market share of smartphones.

MOVEUS is one of the latest FP7-funded projects riding this new wave. It kicked off in October 2013 with ambitions to design, implement, test and exploit an integrated cloud-computing technology. This has the potential to radically change European citizens’ mobility habits in cities.

‘We want to offer intelligent and personalised travel information services, helping people to decide the best transport choice and providing meaningful feedback on the energy efficiency savings obtained as a result’, the project team explains. And since, in 2013, best also means ‘most sustainable’, recommendations supported by incentives will be provided to foster ‘soft’ mobility modes such as walking and biking, the use of car/bike sharing and public transport.

In a nutshell, the MOVEUS technology will collect information from a wide variety of transport modes such as public buses, car/bike sharing systems, traffic management systems, vehicles equipped with traffic density measurement technology and users’ smartphones. This data will then be processed and analysed by an innovative and high-capacity computing platform, which will measure ‘the pulse of urban mobility’ from a global perspective, obtain valuable information on how the traffic density evolve and calculate how individual users can travel in a more eco-friendly way.

The MOVEUS consortium, which is made of eleven partners from four countries (Italy, Finland, Spain and the UK), will provide not only the cloud-based mobility management platform, but also an API toolkit granting data access to developers, innovative user-centric services based on incentives, fully integrated smart mobility applications running on users’ smartphones (mobility assistant) and at control centres (mobility management) and, finally energy efficiency assessment tools to measure users’ performance.

The technology will be tested in Madrid, Tampere and Genoa until September 2016. City councils, transport/mobility operators, citizens and local technology partners will all be participating in the experience, which makes MOVEUS a cornerstone in the advent of a smarter, more sustainable society where each individual can actively participate.

The article Cloud-Based Mobility Services For European Cities appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Dammed Rivers Create Hardship For Brazil’s Native Peoples

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By IPS

By Mario Osava

The Itaparica hydroelectric power plant occupied land belonging to the Pankararu indigenous people, but while others were compensated, they were not. They have lost land and access to the São Francisco river, charge native leaders in Paulo Afonso, a city in northeastern Brazil.

“We can no longer eat fish, but the worst loss was that of the sacred waterfall where we celebrated religious rites,” chief José Auto dos Santos told IPS.

Nearly 200 kilometres downriver, the Xokó indigenous community suffers from low water flow, the result of the large dams that have eliminated the regular seasonal rises in river level of the São Francisco, making it impossible to cultívate rice in the floodplains as before and drastically reducing the fish catch.

Similar effects are feared on the Xingú river in the Amazon, where the Belo Monte hydropower plant will divert some of the water in the stretch known as Volta Grande (Big Bend), affecting the native Juruna and Arara peoples.

Some 2,500 km further south, Ava Guaraní people living on the banks of the Itaipu reservoir, on the border with Paraguay, have become fish farmers to maintain their traditionally high fish consumption, given their growing population and the shortage of arable land.

In Brazil a generation of indigenous people grew up on still rather than running waters in the 1970s and 1980s, when the country built a large number of hydroelectric plants, some of them huge, like Itaipu which is shared with Paraguay, and Tucuruí in the eastern Amazon region, both of which opened in 1984.

In that period, five hydroelectric plants were built on the São Francisco river, which mainly crosses semi-arid territory, altering the flow of the river.

One of these facilities, Sobradinho, has a reservoir with an area of 4,214 square km, one of the largest artificial lakes in the world, according to its state operator, Companhia Hidro Elétrica do São Francisco (São Francisco Hydroelectric Company) which has another 13 hydropower plants in Brazil’s northeast región.

When Sobradinho opened in 1982 it ended rice cultivation in the floodplains 630 km downstream in Xokó territory, local people told IPS.

The annual cycle of river level rises practically disappeared in the lower São Francisco after 1986, when the Itaparica dam and its 828 sq km reservoir, which regulates the flow below the Sobradinho dam, were created in the state of Pernambuco.

Deposition of the alluvial soil that fertilised ricefields and regularly renewed fish stocks in lagoons connected to the river by channels also came to an end.

“Without a flowing current, the river has lost force; it’s a shallow pond that can be crossed on foot,” said Lucimario Apolonio Lima, the 30-year-old Xokó chief who is unusually young to be the leader of an indigenous people. He told IPS that he is seeking a sustainable future for his people, who number just over 400.

He is encouraging bee-keeping and other alternative modes of production, fighting to revitalise the São Francisco and actively opposing Brasilia’s megaproject to divert water from this river to combat drought in the north.

“Before doing this, the river must be given life; sick people do not give blood for transfusions,” he said.

Raimundo Xokó, a 78-year-old shaman, told IPS, “My grandparents predicted that the banks alongside the São Francisco would die. I won’t see it, but my grandchildren will.”

The river banks are a thing of the past for the Pankararu who live five km from the huge Itaparica dam, in the state of Pernambuco. Their leaders feel they have been robbed.

“We have nowhere to fish. The company has taken our land and fails to recognise our legal rights to waterside land,” shaman José João dos Santos, better known as Zé Branco, told IPS.

Former chief Jurandir Freire, known as Zé Indio, is fighting for indemnities totalling millions of dollars, because the native people were not paid reparations for the flooding of their lands, while municipal governments are receiving compensation and non-indigenous farmers have been resettled in newly built villages with irrigated land.

Zé Indio was imprisoned and lost his chief’s post for leading a 2001 protest that tore down electrical transmission lines from the hydroelectric plant that go through mountains in Pankararu territory without any payment being made.

The fertile land in a valley and on mountain slopes that retain humidity, in contrast to the surrounding semi-aridity, is another source of conflict. Since the Pankararu Reserve was demarcated in 1987, the native people have been pressuring the government to remove the non-indigenous farmers who have settled on the best land.

Isabel da Silva, who belongs to a non-indigenous farming family, pointed out that her family and others have lived in Pankararu territory for over a century. “My grandmother was born (in the reserve), and she died aged 91, five years ago,” she said.

“According to the law, we should leave, but that would be unjust,” said da Silva, who works for the Polo Sindical dos Trabalhadores/as Rurais do Submédio São Francisco, a family farmers’ union that achieved resettlement for nearly 6,000 rural families affected by the Itaparica dam.

There are 435 families who have been under threat of eviction for the past two decades. The measure has not yet been carried out for lack of land to resettle them on, according to the authorities.

The Pankararu Reserve covers an area of 8,376 hectares. In 2003 there were 5,584 members of this ethnic group there, according to the state Fundaçao Nacional do Indio (FUNAI – National Indigenous Foundation), responsible for protecting native peoples.

But thousands more have migrated to the cities, especially São Paulo, where they maintain their identity and meet up for indigenous religious rites and celebrations. If land were less scarce, many would return, said Zé Indio.

Land scarcity is also a threat to the Ocoy people, who live on the banks of the Itaipu reservoir. Here 160 families, totalling some 700 people, survive on barely 250 hectares, most of which are protected forests where agriculture is prohibited.

Fish farming, promoted by the Itaipu Binacional company, has emerged as a food-producing alternative in the light of dwindling traditional fishing reserves and the limitations to agriculture.

Indigenous people have excelled among the 850 fisherfolk who participate in the initiative, “perhaps because of their cultural relationship to water,” the company’s head of coordination and the environment, Nelton Friedrich, told IPS.

The Ocoy community harvests nearly six tonnes of fish a year from its 40 net cages, according to deputy chief Silvino Vass.

However, fish farming is not its major source of food and few individuals participate directly in this activity, according to a 2011 academic study by Magali Stempniak Orsi.

Besides, the indigenous people are overly dependent on the company, which supplies them with the fry and fish food, said Orsi, in whose view the project should promote greater community participation.

The Ocoy need assistance to meet their food needs, in contrast to two nearby Ava Guarani communities, who have more land donated by Itaipu Binacional, and grow more crops.

The support given by the Itaipu company to local indigenous people is an exception among hydroelectric plants. In addition to seeking development alternatives, it promotes sustainability in the river basins it manages with its “Cultivating Good Water” programme, which includes 65 environmental, social and productive actions.

The article Dammed Rivers Create Hardship For Brazil’s Native Peoples appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Turkey: Corruption Probes Threaten To Derail Economy

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By EurasiaNet

By Dorian Jones

The escalating turmoil over corruption allegations against Turkey’s political elite is now threatening the ruling Justice and Development Party’s greatest achievement – Turkey’s economic growth. With national elections looming in the future, that threat could affect the party’s 11-plus-year hold on power, some local observers believe.

The scandal erupted in December following the detention of scores of people, including government officials, over the alleged payment of millions of dollars in bribes for state contracts. Ten ministers have resigned or been removed from office – either because of family ties to the scandal or at Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s initiative.

Amidst an in-house political fight over the allegations, nearly 2,000 police officers and 20 senior prosecutors have been reassigned, while new investigations against alleged government misdeeds continue to be opened.

In the Istanbul headquarters of Erensan International Industrial Boilermakers, Chief Executive Officer Ali Eren watches the latest TV news about the government’s dismissals with concern. “Our biggest fear [is] that this confrontation may lead to the destruction of the state system, destroy our businesses and there will be chaos. There is [a] one-percent risk but it is a risk and it is a big worry,” lamented Eren, who sits on the executive board of Istanbul’s powerful Chamber of Industry.

That worry has prompted Turkish and foreign businesses to “hold their decisions to buy or to sell, to go into partnership or any kind of important business decisions,” he claimed.

With half of its markets overseas, Erensan is better off than many Turkish companies. But much of his company’s growth in the past decade has stemmed from the runaway construction boom that has marked the rule of Prime Minister Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) since 2002.

That boom not only involves most of the corruption allegations against senior government officials. It also remains “the driving force” behind the “Turkish economic miracle,” pointed out political scientist Cengiz Aktar of Sabanci University’s Istanbul Policy Center.

Under the AKP, Turkey’s GDP nearly tripled to stand at $789 billion in 2013, according to the World Bank. The more than $50 billion that Turkey spends each year on public procurement “is almost exclusively about [the] construction industry,” Aktar noted.

While the economic growth rate has slowed in recent years, grandiose infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the world’s largest airport in Istanbul, and of a third bridge across the Bosphorus, remain in the works.

But whether or not that pace can be maintained in the wake of the construction scandal is now in doubt. Even though many of the corruption investigations have been brought to a halt, with the government reassigning investigating prosecutors, the suspicions already have impacted the construction sector.

“Some of the construction companies who are implicated by the corruption probes could well see their access to credit curbed because of the negative publicity,” predicted İnan Demir, chief economist at the private, Istanbul-based Finans Bank. “And a lot of the big projects these constructors are undertaking require external financing. Because the projects are too large for the local banking system.”

Since 2009, Turkey’s foreign-denominated corporate debt has doubled to $170 billion, just over 20 percent of its GDP.

But amidst the ongoing depreciation of the lira – it has lost 10 percent of its value since the corruption scandal broke – that debt places an increasingly heavy burden on Turkish corporations.

“This is a very important threat,” said Demir. “With a Turkish lira depreciation of 20 percent since last May, the corporations are writing FX [foreign exchange] losses to the tune of $35 billion.”

Demir claims that, based on financial reports, that sum equals the total profits for publicly traded private Turkish companies in 2012.

That means Turkish companies now face a double-whammy – fewer existing funds for future projects and greater difficulty borrowing fresh funds for new investments. Adding to that difficulty is the US Federal Reserve’s decision to reverse a policy (quantitative easing) that reduced the cost of dollar-denominated borrowing.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s consumer confidence is falling as fast as its currency. Between December 2013 and January, the Turkish financial news network CNBC-E recorded a 17-percent decrease in its monthly consumer-confidence index, the biggest decline since the 2009 world economic crisis.

Nevertheless, the government continues to stand by its prediction of four-percent economic growth for 2014. But some analysts now expect a slowdown, with a figure half that number more likely, or even a recession.

“I think we are looking at less than two-percent growth. We are going to lose more [than] half a year,” warned Eren.

A widely accepted economic rule of thumb in Turkey is that five-percent growth is needed to absorb the million or so young people entering the job market each year.

But with nationwide local elections slotted for March 30 and a presidential poll in August, few Turks expect immediate, radical policy changes to pump up the economy in the wake of the corruption scandal.

“We are facing elections until August. No one is going to make a move until they’ve passed,” said Eren.

Opinion polls – often of questionable accuracy in Turkey – still give the AKP a commanding lead for these elections. But with unprecedented political uncertainty casting a shadow over future prosperity, Prime Minister Erdoğan could have good reason to worry.

“The only serious factor that would undermine the ruling party’s future is the economy,” noted analyst Aktar. “If there is a slowdown, at the end of the day, Turks vote with their wallets, like so many other countries in the world.”

Dorian Jones is a freelance reporter based in Istanbul.

The article Turkey: Corruption Probes Threaten To Derail Economy appeared first on Eurasia Review.

2014 To Test Franco-German Alliance – Analysis

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By EurActiv

(EurActiv) — Three prominent political analysts spoke with EurActiv.de on the 51th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty, evaluating the Franco-German partnership in 2014 and challenges for the years ahead.

Frank Baasner, director at the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg (Deutsch-Französisches Institut Ludwigsburg), said the time had come for renewed reflection, fifty-one years after the Élysée Treaty was signed.

2014 would be a historical year, Baasner said, with Germany, France and the rest of the EU putting the bloc to the test as they tackle the still unfinished eurozone crisis and military intervention in Africa. It is also an EU election year, when citizens will cast their vote for prospective MEPs.

For France, Baasner said, the year began with the beat of a drum, referring to the announcement by French President François Hollande of a “responsibility pact” between trade unions and employers and a supply-oriented economic policy.

By making this political shift to the right, the expert on France said Hollande was hoping to unburden companies in exchange for more jobs, while also reducing government spending to €50 billion by 2017.

After the speech, commentators were already pointing out the parallels with former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s Agenda 2010 plan, Baasner said.

If Hollande’s plans are carried out, it would be “very good news for the entire EU”, a convinced Baasner told EurActiv.de.

But MEP Andreas Schwab from Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), pointed out that France still needed comprehensive reforms, dampening the hopes of a rapid transformation. The country has had significant difficulties with economic growth and improving the situation on its jobs market, Schwab said.

“The explanation from Hollande has not pushed aside these problems”, the CDU politician added.

He said he did not share the idea, which is widespread in France, that tax cuts would automatically create new jobs. Flexibility must continue to increase in the job market, above all for SMEs, Schwab said.

Concerning Schröder’s Agenda 2010, the CDU politician said France could use it as an example of economic transformation, but could not simply copy the plan. The differences between the French and German economies was too great for that, Schwab explained.

“The French government must take French measures”, he said.

Junior partner role not acceptable to France

The assessment of prescribing a uniquely French-solution for France was shared by Georg Walter, director of the division for Franco-German relations at the Asko Europa-Stiftung in Saarbrücken.

In a statement to EurActiv.de, he emphasised that political and socio-cultural differences between France and Germany should be considered alongside the economic differences.

In 2014, Germany stands unchallenged at the tip of the European economic area and is pushing France to make reforms in line with the German model. This will only resurrect the age-old fear in France over German dominance, Walter predicted.

If Hollande seeks to shift too far towards a German-style economic course, he will come up against strong domestic opposition, said Walter.

A role as junior partner to Germany is not imaginable for France, said Walter. For this reason, the Franco-German expert said, it still remains to be seen whether France will actually satisfy German demands during the reform process.

Cause for political horsetrading?

While Germany may be dominant economically, the situation is completely different for defence policy, Walter said. France is the Grand Nation that acts alone militarily, for example in Mali or now in the Central African Republic.

Due to its colonial history, France has a presence in Africa and likewise a feeling of responsibility in stabilising francophone crisis states, the Franco-German expert explained. In contrast, he pointed out, Germany traditionally tends to avoid foreign interventions – also for historical reasons – as can currently be seen in Africa.

In that case, Walter wondered if there was potential for political horsetrading. France could make concessions to Germany in economic policy and in return Germany offers more support for France in military interventions, Walter suggested, calling it a win-win situation.

“Theoretically,” replied Schwab regarding the prospect, “this idea could be expanded”. Still, he said he believed that the historical differences between the two countries were too deeply rooted.

Germany does not send troops until it has made a lengthy evaluation, the MEP pointed out. So instead of rapid action, he said more preliminary planning on the part of France would give Germany more room for involvement in foreign interventions.

“There is a fundamental readiness for greater [military] cooperation,” Schwab said.

Restoring the ‘engine of European integration’

According to the three experts, it seems 2014 could be the right time to pinpoint steps for greater security and economic policy integration in the Franco-German partnership.

“It remains crucial that Germany and France stand united behind the European project and, despite differing approaches and rationales, continue to come to an understanding on moving forward in the unification process”, said Walter.

“In 2014, Germany and France must become the engine of European integration again”, said Baasner along the same lines.

Even amid rising nationalist trends in many member states, Walter said he was optimistic that the heads of state and government would work things out, adopting a proactive and forward-looking mentality.

“Cooperation in Europe is not just about euros and cents, not only about the single market and the banking union,” said Schwab, “it also includes a human dimension that holds people together”.

The article 2014 To Test Franco-German Alliance – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Physical Activity Significantly Extends Lives Of Cancer Survivors

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By Eurasia Review

Physical activity significantly extends the lives of male cancer survivors, a new study of 1,021 men has found.

During the period while the men were followed, those who expended more than 12,600 calories per week in physical activity were 48 percent less likely to die than those who burned fewer than 2,100 calories per week.

Kathleen Y. Wolin, PhD, of Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine, is co-author of the study, published in the Journal of Physical Activity & Health, the official journal of the International Society for Physical Activity and Health.

Many cancer survivors are living longer, due to earlier diagnosis and better treatment, and their numbers are increasing rapidly. “Thus physical activity should be actively promoted to such individuals to enhance longevity,” researchers concluded.

There has been extensive research showing that among generally healthy, cancer-free populations, physical activity extends longevity. But there has been relatively little such research on physical activity among cancer survivors.

Researchers examined data from the Harvard Alumni Health Study, an ongoing study of men who entered Harvard as undergraduates between 1916 and 1950. Researchers looked at 1,021 men (average age 71) who previously had been diagnosed with cancer. In questionnaires conducted in 1988, men reported their physical activities, including walking, stair-climbing and participation in sports and recreational activities. Their physical activities were updated in 1993, and the men were followed until 2008.

Compared with men who expended fewer than 2,100 calories per week in physical activity, men who expended more than 12,600 calories per week were 48 percent less likely to die of any cause during the follow-up period. This finding was adjusted for age, smoking, body mass index, early parental mortality and dietary variables. (By comparison, a 176-pound man who walks briskly for 30 minutes a day, five days a week burns 4,200 calories.)

There were similar findings for mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease: the most physically active cancer survivors were 38 percent less likely to die of cancer and 49 percent less likely to die of cardiovascular disease during the follow-up period.

The article Physical Activity Significantly Extends Lives Of Cancer Survivors appeared first on Eurasia Review.


EU Sets 2030 Climate And Energy Goals

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By JTW

By Öznur Akcali

The European Commission designated a framework for the EU’s climate and energy future that includes the EU’s 2030 goals on Wednesday.

According to European Union’s announcement on its website, the new EU framework on climate and energy offers a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40%—which would put emissions below the 1990 level.

The EU’s 2013 framework also includes energy targets. The EU aims at a binding target of 27% of energy to come from renewable sources, and it has renewed ambitions for energy efficiency policies.

The key elements of the 2030 policy framework set out by the Commission are a binding greenhouse gas reduction target, an EU-wide binding renewable energy target, energy efficiency goals, and the reform of EU emission trading system (ETS).

Regulations will be suited to the capacity of member states. For example, member states with sunny climates will be encouraged toward renewable solar energy.

The European Council is expected to consider the framework at its spring meeting on 20-21 March.

Comments on EU’s 2030 framework

The climate and energy framework is causing debates among EU and green organizations. Green organizations like Greenpeace claim the targets of this framework are not enough to save the environment.

However, the European Commission has declared that the efforts will go on.
President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said that EU leadership in global climate action was beyond doubt.

EU Climate Commissioner and former Danish Climate Minister Connie Hedegaard, emphasized that the efforts will continue and said that “if all other regions were equally ambitious about tackling climate change the world would be in significantly better shape”

EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger mentioned the “Europeanization” of renewable energy and stated that the internal energy market provides the basis to fulfill the goals. Oettinger also said, “the 2030 framework sets a high level of ambition for action against climate change, but it also recognizes that this needs to be achieved at least cost.”

Background

The EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas emission by 80-95%—to levels below 1990 levels—by 2050. For this goal, it has several documents showing the need for more effort from developed countries. These documents include the “climate and energy package” of targets for 2020 and the 2050 roadmaps for energy and for a competitive low-carbon economy. The 2030 policy framework follows the Commission’s March 2013 Green Paper, which launched a broad public consultation on the most appropriate range and structure of climate and energy targets for 2030.

The article EU Sets 2030 Climate And Energy Goals appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ralph Nader: America’s Invisible And Costly Human Rights Crisis – OpEd

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By Ralph Nader

When the news broke years ago that U.S. forces were using torture on prisoners at Guantanamo Bay detention camp, many politicians and the public expressed appropriate horror. There was shock and disappointment that our country would resort to such inhumane, abusive actions against our fellow human beings, most of whom then were innocent victims of bounty hunters in Afghanistan.

With this frame of reverence in mind, it is unfortunate that many Americans do not contemplate — or are simply unaware of — blatant torture occurring in prisons every day right here in the United States. This form of physical and psychological violence is called many things: “isolation”, “administrative segregation”, “control units”, “secure housing” and by its most well-known designation, solitary confinement. This practice of imprisonment is widely used across our nation with disturbingly little oversight and restriction. The full extent of the use of solitary confinement is truly alarming — it is most certainly a human rights abuse and a blight on our national character.

Imagine yourself being locked in a small windowless room for days, weeks, or years… perhaps even for the majority of your life. You receive food and water through a small slot and have little-to-no human contact — you might go days or weeks without speaking to another person. You are allowed out for perhaps an hour a day for some exercise. This is the living reality for tens of thousands of Americans in our prison system. Self-mutilation and suicide attempts among those in solitary confinement are far too common. Not surprisingly, studies have shown that the majority of prison suicides are inmates who were being held in solitary.

Many more studies have shown that solitary confinement has a severe psychologically damaging effect on human beings. For prisoners already suffering from mental illness, it exacerbates their problems. Senator John McCain wrote of his experience in solitary confinement as a P.O.W. in Vietnam: “It crushes your spirit and weakens your resistance more effectively than any other form of mistreatment.”

Many might dismiss and even justify punishment by solitary confinement by convincing themselves that those subjected to it are “bad people.” But this is a gross misunderstanding of its common use in our prisons. Many prisoners held in solitary are mentally ill, mentally handicapped, or illiterate. Some are placed in solitary purportedly for their “safety” to protect them from themselves or from other prisoners.

Some put in solitary are children as young as 14 or 15. What type of prison infraction would result in a 15 year old being locked up in solitary? — “15 days for not making the bed; 15 days for not keeping the cell door open; 20 or 25 days for being in someone else’s cell” are some, according to a report on the issue by Human Rights Watch.

Journalist James Ridgeway calls the use of solitary confinement “a second sentence.” The first sentence is, of course, being sent to prison. The second sentence is totally decided by the warden and guards without appealable criteria. As such, the act of disobeying instructions or vaguely interpreted prison rules or the whim of the warden can warrant a lengthy stay in solitary. The lack of accountability in this area is notorious and critical. For many prisoners, a stay in solitary is a death sentence.

Ridgeway, along with Jean Cassella, founded Solitary Watch (solitarywatch.com) in 2009. Their goal is to bring attention to what really goes on in America’s prisons, which are subjected to so little public exposure of their daily operations.

The United States is the world leader in locking people up. There are currently about 2.3 million imprisoned people in the United StatesAbout 25 percent of them are there for nonviolent drug offenses, victims of the insatiable “prison-industrial complex” which costs taxpayers billions of dollars every year. Of these millions of inmates, it is estimated that as many as 80,000 are being held in solitary confinement according to Solitary Watch. Prisons are not required to provide data on how and when they use this highly questionable method of incarceration. Over 40 prisons are considered “supermax” facilities where the majority of cells are solitary units. These prisons alone account for about 30,000 people.

For-profit corporate-owned prisons like solitary confinement because it extends a prisoners’ sentence. It is also far more expensive to keep prisoners in solitary confinement — one study estimates that the average cost of housing an inmate in a supermax prison is $75,000, as opposed to $25,000 per cell in a regular state prison. This cost is passed along to taxpayers.

Imagine how things might change if more ordinary Americans had access to inspect the prisons their tax dollars pay for. A precedent for this exists. In Great Britain, “Independent Monitoring Boards” offer a unique civic perspective on regulating what happens inside prison walls. Ordinary citizens are able to volunteer to be these independent monitors. Volunteers are allowed unannounced access to prison facilities anytime, day or night. The volunteers are free to tour the prison, speak with the inmates, sample the food, and inspect the clothing and the state of medical care.

(Read Solitary Watch’s article on British Prisons here.)

Such an idea of citizen responsibility might seem highly unusual to most Americans to whom prisons are largely out of sight and out of mind. The first step in addressing this crisis of abuse is raising awareness.

Reporters are rarely given full access to prisons so they can report on what is going on inside. Let the press in! The best source of information about the state of our prisons is the prisoners themselves — but press access to them is restricted and the Department of Justice is not listening to their appeals. With this barrier in place, prisons are virtually shut off from any accountability or independent oversight. Wardens and guards are the only ones making decisions about the treatment of many prisoners.

And where are the judges? All judges — federal, state, and local should have firsthand knowledge of the conditions in prisons so that they can make better informed decisions when sentencing those who come before them.

Here’s a bold suggestion that might move the needle. All nine members of the United States Supreme Court should spend 48 hours in solitary confinement. Imagine how quickly the treatment of our incarcerated population would change if those at forefront of our judicial system had a small taste of what it is like to be locked in a tiny cell, alone, with no human contact for such an amount of time. Just 48 hours! There is precedent for some state judges actually spending time in prison years ago.

Some prisoners, such as Herman Wallace, have spent the majority of their lives suffering under these conditions. Wallace spent 41 years in solitary confinement while maintaining his innocence. The warden of the Louisiana prison where he was held ascribed his “Black Pantherism” as the reason. Wallace was released in October of last year and died three days later at the age of 71. These acts of astonishing cruelty should not happen in a country governed by the rule of law.

Too many people overlook the plight of prisoners, deeming them criminals and not concerning themselves with the plights of people they feel have no place or say in our society. There is little recognition of wrongful convictions and the role of rehabilitation that has worked in other western countries with far less recidivist rates then in the U.S. This mindset is a major obstacle in drawing attention to the inhumane treatment inmates often receive in our justice system.

The legendary investigator Jim Ridgeway says of the Solitary Watch project: “We’re not trying to let criminals out. We’re just trying to let people know what is going on.”

For those who want to do something now, consider donating to Solitary Watch’s campaign “Lifeline to Solitary.” This lean and efficient campaign means to establish contact with prisoners held in long-term solitary. This connection serves two purposes — it allows Solitary Watch to correspond with prisoners and report on their conditions. Secondly, it provides those in isolation a key connection to the outside world and a reminder that they do matter.

Visit the Lifeline to Solitary fundraising page here.

Prisons are a grim and unpleasant part of our system of justice. That said, we can do much, much better about how to humanely treat people who are serving their time often under grotesquely long sentences for non-violent crimes.

The article Ralph Nader: America’s Invisible And Costly Human Rights Crisis – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Syrian Sides To Meet Face-To-Face At Geneva-2 On Saturday

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By VOR

The Syrian opposition will meet the Syrian government delegation face-to-face for the first time on Saturday morning, for a brief meeting presided over by mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, an opposition delegate said on Friday adding that the meeting would start at the United Nations in Geneva at 10:00 am (0900 GMT).

“We are satisfied with Mr. Brahimi’s statement today and that the regime has accepted Geneva 1 (communique) and on this basis we will meet the Assad delegation tomorrow morning. It will be a short session in which only Brahimi will speak, to be followed by another session, a longer session in the afternoon,” Anas al-Abdah, an opposition delegate told Reuters.

International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi said on Friday Syrian government and opposition delegations will remain in Geneva throughout the weekend for talks, but said the process would not be easy.

“Both parties will be here tomorrow…they will not leave on Saturday or Sunday,” Brahimi told a news conference after separate meetings with the two delegations.

“We do expect some bumps on the road. We wanted these delegations nominated months ago to prepare things better,” he said, adding that while both sides agreed that a June 2012 communique should be the basis for the negotiations, “there are different interpretations on some of those items”.

The article Syrian Sides To Meet Face-To-Face At Geneva-2 On Saturday appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ralph Nader: The Fukushima Secrecy Syndrome, From Japan To America – OpEd

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By Ralph Nader

Last month, the ruling Japanese coalition parties quickly rammed through Parliament a state secrets law. We Americans better take notice.

Under its provisions the government alone decides what are state secrets and any civil servants who divulge any “secrets” can be jailed for up to 10 years. Journalists caught in the web of this vaguely defined law can be jailed for up to 5 years.

Government officials have been upset at the constant disclosures of their laxity by regulatory officials before and after the Fukushima nuclear power disaster in 2011, operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

Week after week, reports appear in the press revealing the seriousness of the contaminated water flow, the inaccessible radioactive material deep inside these reactors and the need to stop these leaking sites from further poisoning the land, food and ocean. Officials now estimate that it could take up to 40 years to clean up and decommission the reactors.

Other factors are also feeding this sure sign of a democratic setback. Militarism is raising its democracy-menacing head, prompted by friction with China over the South China Sea. Dismayingly, U.S. militarists are pushing for a larger Japanese military budget. China is the latest national security justification for our “pivot to East Asia” provoked in part by our military-industrial complex.

Draconian secrecy in government and fast-tracking bills through legislative bodies are bad omens for freedom of the Japanese press and freedom to dissent by the Japanese people. Freedom of information and robust debate (the latter cut off sharply by Japan’s parliament in December 5, 2013) are the currencies of democracy.

There is good reason why the New York Times continues to cover the deteriorating conditions in the desolate, evacuated Fukushima area. Our country has licensed many reactors here with the same designs and many of the same inadequate safety and inspection standards. Some reactors here are near earthquake faults with surrounding populations which cannot be safely evacuated in case of serious damage to the electric plant. The two Indian Point aging reactors that are 30 miles north of New York City are a case in point.

The less we are able to know about the past and present conditions of Fukushima, the less we will learn about atomic reactors in our own country.

Fortunately many of Japan’s most famous scientists, including Nobel laureates, Toshihide Maskawa and Hideki Shirakawa, have led the opposition against this new state secrecy legislation with 3,000 academics signing a public letter of protest. These scientists and academics declared the government’s secrecy law a threat to “the pacifist principles and fundamental human rights established by the constitution and should be rejected immediately.”

Following this statement, the Japan Scientists’ Association, Japan’s mass media companies, citizens associations, lawyers’ organizations and some regional legislatures opposed the legislation. Polls show the public also opposes this attack on democracy. The present ruling parties remain adamant. They cite as reasons for state secrecy “national security and fighting terrorism.” Sound familiar?

History is always present in the minds of many Japanese people. They know what happened in Japan when the unchallenged slide toward militarization of Japanese society led to the intimidating tyranny that drove the invasion of China, Korea and Southeast Asia before and after Pearl Harbor. By 1945, Japan was in ruins, ending with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The American people have to be alert to our government’s needless military and political provocations of China, which is worried about encirclement by surrounding U.S.-allied nations and U.S. air and sea power. Washington might better turn immediate attention to U.S. trade policies that have facilitated U.S. companies shipping American jobs and whole industries to China.

The Obama administration must become more alert to authoritarian trends in Japan that its policies have been either encouraging or knowingly ignoring – often behind the curtains of our own chronic secrecy.

The lessons of history beckon.

The article Ralph Nader: The Fukushima Secrecy Syndrome, From Japan To America – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

They Never Announce When You Prevent A War – OpEd

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By David Swanson

There exists, I suppose, some slight chance of this one making it into the State of the Union address, no doubt in a distorted, bellicose, and xenophobic disguise.  Typically, there’s no chance of any announcement at all.

We’re stopping another war.

There are a million qualifications that need to be put on that statement.  None of them render it false.  A bill looked likely to move through Congress that would have imposed new sanctions on Iran, shredded the negotiated agreement with Iran, and committed the United States to join in any Israeli war on Iran.  This would be a step toward war and has become understood as such by large numbers of people.  Efforts to sell sanctions as an alternative to war failed. Tons of pushback has come, and is still coming, from the public, including from numerous organizations not always known for their opposition to war.  And the bill, for the moment, seems much less likely to pass.

This is no time to let up, but to recognize our power and press harder for peace.

Pushback against the sanctions bill has come from the White House, from within the military, and from elsewhere within the government. But this bill was something the warmongers wanted, AIPAC wanted, a majority of U.S. senators wanted, and corporate media outlets were happy to support.  The underlying pretense that Iran has a nuclear weapons program that endangers the world had the support of the White House and most other opponents of the March-to-War bill.  That pretense has been successfully sold to much of the public. The additional supporting pretense that sanctions have helped, rather than hindered, diplomacy has similar widespread backing. But when it comes to a measure understood as a step into war, the public is saying no, and that public response is a factor in the likely outcome.

In this instance, President Obama has been on the right side of the debate. I’ve never known that to actually be true before. But there’s been a whole infrastructure of activism set up and fine-tuned for five years now, all based around the pretense that Obama was right on various points and Congress wrong.  So, when that actually happened to be true, numerous organizations knew exactly what to do with it. War opposition and Obama-following merged.  But let’s remember back to August and September.  That was a different situation in which . . .

We stopped another war.

Raytheon’s stock was soaring. The corporate media wanted those missiles to hit Syria. Obama and the leadership of both parties wanted those missiles to hit Syria.  The missiles didn’t fly.

Public pressure led the British Parliament to refuse a prime minister’s demand for war for the first time since the surrender at Yorktown, and the U.S. Congress followed suit by making clear to the U.S. president that his proposed authorization for war on Syria would not pass through either the Senate or the House.  Numerous Congress members, from both houses and both parties, said they heard more from the public against this war than ever before on any issue. It helped that Congress was on break and holding town hall meetings.  It helped that it was Jewish holidays and AIPAC wasn’t around.

And there were other factors.  After the public pushed Congress to demand a say, Obama agreed to that.  Perhaps he wanted something so controversial — something being talked about as “the next Iraq” — to go to Congress.  Perhaps he expected Congress would probably say No.  In such a scenario, the decisive factor would remain the past decade of growing public sentiment against wars.  But I don’t think that’s what happened.  Obama and Kerry were pushing hard and publicly for those missiles to fly.  When they couldn’t get the “intelligence” agencies to back their fraudulent case, they announced it anyway.  Those lies are just being exposed now, in a very different context from that in which the Iraq war lies or the Afghanistan or Libya war lies have been exposed.  Obama told us to watch videos of children suffering and dying in Syria and to choose between war and inaction.  We rejected that choice, opposed war, and supported humanitarian aid (which hasn’t happened on remotely the necessary scale).

In the space of a day, discussions in Washington, D.C., shifted from the supposed necessity of war to the clear desirability of avoiding war. The Russians’ proposal to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons had already been known to the White House but was being rejected. When Kerry publicly suggested that Syria could avoid a war by handing over its chemical weapons, everyone knew he didn’t mean it.  In fact, when Russia called his bluff and Syria immediately agreed, Kerry’s staff put out this statement: “Secretary Kerry was making a rhetorical argument about the impossibility and unlikelihood of Assad turning over chemical weapons he has denied he used. His point was that this brutal dictator with a history of playing fast and loose with the facts cannot be trusted to turn over chemical weapons, otherwise he would have done so long ago. That’s why the world faces this moment.” In other words: stop getting in the way of our war! By the next day, however, with Congress rejecting war, Kerry was claiming to have meant his remark quite seriously and to believe the process had a good chance of succeeding, as of course it did.  Diplomatic solutions are always available.  What compelled Obama to accept diplomacy as the last resort was the public’s and Congress’s refusal to allow war.

These victories are limited and tentative.  The machinery that pushes for war hasn’t gone away.  The arms are still flowing into Syria.  Efforts to negotiate peace there seem less than wholehearted.  The U.S. puppeteer has stuck its arm up the rear end of the United Nations and uninvited Iran from the talks.  The people of Syria and Iran are no better off.

But they’re also no worse off. No U.S. bombs are falling from their skies.

There could be other proposals for wars that we’ll find much harder to prevent.  That’s precisely why we must recognize the possibility of stopping those proposals too, a possibility established by the examples above, from which we should stop fleeing in panic as if the possibility that everything we do might have some point to it horrifies us.

Any war can be stopped.  Any pretended necessity to hurry up and kill large numbers of people can be transformed into a negotiation at a table using words rather than missiles.  And if we come to understand that, we’ll be able to start dismantling the weaponry, which in turn will make the tendency to think of war as the first option less likely.  By steps we can move to a world in which our government doesn’t propose bombing someone new every few months but instead proposes helping someone new.

If we can stop one war, if we can stop two wars, why can’t we stop them all and put our resources into protection rather than destruction?  Why can’t we move to a world beyond war?

The article They Never Announce When You Prevent A War – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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