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Libya: Benghazi Local Council Condemns Violence

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By Magharebia

By Asmaa Elourfi

Drive-by shootings, abductions, car bombings – even an explosive device tossed into a school yard – are raising questions about whether Benghazi security services are up to the task of saving their city.

“As a security person, I can say we are tired,” said Abdelnaser al-Darsi a member of the communication team with the Benghazi security directorate. “Despite the money, we lack resources,” he said.

“We never thought that they would target our kids but it looks like we are all a target now, not just security members,” he added.

The director of the Benghazi school hit by the bomb, Amel al-Warfalli, said: “The lack of security in the city led to chaos.”

“I pray Allah to protect our children,” the Mahd al-Maarefa school director said.

With Benghazi facing daily violence, Magharebia asked a member of the local council about how the body would bring security back to the city.

Usama al-Sherief, who also heads up the council’s media committee, explained that under transitional law, municipal councils were tasked with implementing security plans.

“As soon as the local council was elected, a security committee was formed,” he continued. “They had an honest relation with revolutionary brigades at that time, as they weren’t integrated into the army. The brigades and Shields had a legitimate capacity, and this was in 2012.”

But after that, he said, “there was a gap or a crisis of trust between all the components that constituted the security scene in town — high security committee, Benghazi security directorate, Libyan army units and revolutionary brigades”.

“There was confusion of jurisdictions,” he explained. “The local council tried to unify these components.”

“A decision was passed by the deputy interior minister to form a joint security room in Benghazi to be headed by Lt. Col. Ali al-Besbasi,” al-Sherief added. “It started its work with revolutionary brigades, the high security committee and army units. It had a prominent role in the General National Congress (GNC) election. The local council contributed 100,000 dinars to help the security room.”

After the death of the US ambassador in Benghazi, the councilman said, “The joint security room was disbanded, as the then-Libyan army chief Youssef al-Mangoush formed another security room.”

“The second security room’s mandate also ended, and a third security room started working under difficult circumstances, given that security breaches, bombings and political assassinations increased in town,” he said.

“The room suffers from shortage of modern equipment and weapons, like a communication system,” he noted.

Al-Sherief condemned assassinations and violations against citizens. “We demand the state’s sovereign agencies, represented by the government and its various bodies, including the intelligence agency, put an end to these security breaches which affect the country’s national security in general.”

The councilman also voiced concern about border security.

“We all now know that crime has become sophisticated now, especially in Benghazi, because the land and sea borders are porous and the Libyan state is absent at the border,” he said.

“This is aggravating the security problem in Benghazi, which is bigger than the local council,” al-Sherief said.

The article Libya: Benghazi Local Council Condemns Violence appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Egypt Combats Spread Of Influenza

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By Al-Shorfa

By Waleed Abu al-Khair

Nearly 320 Egyptians have been diagnosed with the H1N1 flu virus since December, 38 of whom died after being infected, Egypt’s Ministry of Health announced this week.

Many of the cases of H1N1 infection emerged in Egypt after the dramatic drop in temperature — down to zero degrees Celsius in some areas — which is unusual in Egypt, said Dr. Ali al-Zaraani, respiratory disease specialist at Qasr al-Aini Hospital in Cairo and member of the emergency committee formed by the Egyptian Health Ministry to follow up on mutations of the flu virus.

The high number of deaths and chronic cases are the result of the virus overpowering the immune systems of people who already suffer from other health problems, he told Al-Shorfa.

The virus “is a type of seasonal flu virus that flares up this time of year, and is active in many parts of the world, including Egypt”, he said.

“The Ministry of Health is monitoring and following up on the flu in 450 hospitals across Egypt and in its laboratories in order to trace the path of the flu, ensure it does not mutate and that the appropriate medicine, antibiotics and vaccines are being used to fight it,” he said.

The virus has not yet mutated, and “is very similar to the one that surfaced last year and the year before”, al-Zaraani said.

The number of infections categorised as advanced — which include respiratory and pulmonary infections — is almost identical to the number of such cases diagnosed last year, he added.

The ministry has distributed large quantities of vaccines to deal with these cases, equipped all hospitals with quarantine rooms, and vaccinated all specialised doctors, nursing and quarantine staff, al-Zaraani said.
Preventative measures

Respiratory infections specialist Dr. Sayyed Yassin attributed the outbreak of chronic infections this year in Egypt to climate changes and unprecedentedly low temperatures.

Flu symptoms include high temperatures that persist above 38 degrees Celsius, acute respiratory infections, and pneumonia accompanied by muscle and body pain and headaches, he said.

The most vulnerable groups include children younger than seven years of age, adults older than 60 years of age, as well as pregnant women and individuals suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes and kidney disease, Yassin said.

“Although it has kept the spread of the virus in check, the Egyptian Ministry of Health lacks a preventive medicine system to activate in case of an outbreak of virus or an epidemic of pneumonia for example or acute viral hepatitis,” he said.

Hospital administrators in the provinces have made considerable efforts to reduce fatalities during this year’s flu season, he said, and citizens are taking their own preventative measures to avoid contracting the virus.

Government employee Amer Nabil said he had his entire family vaccinated against the flu this year.

“I also emphasise cleanliness outside the home, especially at school to my children, and my wife and I make the children eat fresh vegetables and fruit, especially oranges for their Vitamin C, which is essential in winter,” he told Al-Shorfa.

The Ministry of Education’s decision this year to postpone the children’s return to school until January 22nd pleased parents who were fearful their children would contract the flu virus, he said.

In 2009, the pandemic H1N1 virus killed hundreds of Egyptians and thousands worldwide.

The article Egypt Combats Spread Of Influenza appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Yemen’s New System Of Government: A 6-Region Federation

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By Al-Shorfa

By Faisal Darem i

Yemen’s president and main political parties on Monday (February 10th) voted to transform the country into a six-region federation, with two regions in the south and four in the north.

The decision came at the meeting of a committee formed in late January at the end of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) to decide on the number of regions.

The majority of the committee members voted for the establishment of the federation comprising the following six regions: Hadramaut region, including al-Mahrah, Hadramaut, Shabwa and Socotra; Saba region, including al-Jawf, Marib and al-Bayda; Aden region, including Aden, Abyan, Lahij and al-Dali; al-Janad region, including Taiz and Ibb; Azal region, including Saada, Sanaa, Omran and Dhamar; and Tihama region, including al-Hodeidah, Raima, al-Mahwit and Hajjah.

Monday’s decision “came after consensus was reached by most committee members and following a review of best standards and models of federal states in the world, and how to divide economic resources, ensure justice and good governance, reduce expenses and fight corruption”, said NDC Secretary-General Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, rapporteur of the region determination committee.

“The basic state model has failed in Yemen, whether the two-state model, one in the north and the other in the south, before unification [in 1990], or the state formed by unification,” he said.

A federal state is the type of authority that is closest to the people, he said, as it provides four levels of government: federal, regional, on the level of states and on the level of municipal councils.

“This system provides for greater participation of citizens in government,” he added.

Each of the six regions will have its own legislative council and a local government that includes the service ministries, while the central government will retain the sovereign ministries, bin Mubarak said.

Each region will have a leading role in economic development in an effort towards a better management of resources and in ensuring equal citizenship rights and duties for all citizens, he added.

The city of Sanaa will have a special status as the capital of the federal state and will not be under the authority of any region. The same applies to the city of Aden, which will have special status as an administrative and economic city within the framework of the Aden region, and will have independent legislative and executive authorities, according to bin Mubarak.
Division criteria

“The federal state is the only way out of Yemen’s numerous problems, because the system of regions will create positive competition among the regions and integration that ensures efficient use of the resources of each region,” said Abdullah Lamlas of the region determination committee.

Lamlas said the committee considered several criteria in the division process, including the ability of each region to achieve economic stability, geographical connections between the people of provinces within the same region, and social, cultural and historical factors.

Afrah al-Zouba, another committee member, told Al-Shorfa the committee sought to ensure there will be equal rights within each region, “so no province monopolises power to the exclusion of the other provinces in the same region”.

To ensure there is true partnership within the legislature of each region and equitable representation of each state in the federal parliament, the committee approved rotating presidencies for legislative councils, she said.

“The revenue generated from the regions’ natural and non-natural resources will be distributed among all people [of the federal state] in a transparent and fair manner” after consultation with the regions and states, al-Zouba said.

This will take into account the needs of producing states and regions in particular and allocating a portion of these revenues to the federal state, which will in turn redistribute them among non-producing regions, she added.

The new six-region division will be included in the new constitution, which will be drafted and put to a referendum within a year before presidential and parliamentary elections are held.

The article Yemen’s New System Of Government: A 6-Region Federation appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Regional Developments Push Turkish And Greek Cypriot Leaders Toward Peace

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By SETimes

By Erisa Dautaj

Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are expressing interest in re-opening negotiations and issuing a joint declaration with the mediation of the United Nations (UN).

Alexander Downer, UN special envoy to Cyprus, has been conducting intensive diplomatic negotiations between the two sides as well as among UN Security Council nations.

Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades said he saw “serious prospects” for the two sides to sit down again and resume negotiations after issuing a “shorter joint communique.” The failure to agree on the wording of a joint communique has been blocking the negotiations since 2012. The Turkish Cypriot’s presidency office said in a statement February 7th (Friday) that the two sides have reached agreement on the wording of the statement, though the text of the statement had not been released at publication time.

Meanwhile, the leader of Turkish Cypriots, Dervis Eroglu, said they were ready to start formal talks even without a joint statement.

“Both sides must sit together and start talking the issues at hand. We must get into a solution mindset,” Eroglu said in a recent interview with the A Haber TV network.

According to some experts, the latest developments in the Mediterranean may push both sides to reach an agreement.

“I think they will push for a solution this time. There is too much at stake here,” Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, the director of the Centre for International and European Studies at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University, told SETimes.

Major developments, especially in the energy sector, which is seen as one of the major incentives for the reunification of the island, have recently taken place in the Mediterranean. Israel’s Delek and other international firms have successfully explored offshore natural gas fields and companies are in the process of opening the wells. Energy-hungry Turkey is seen as the main beneficiary of the natural gas flowing from the island. Meanwhile, Turkey and Northern Cyprus finalised a water pipeline project to connect both sides to supply Cyprus with fresh drinking water, a major scarcity in Cyprus.

“There can be mutual economic co-operation,” Huseyin Bagci, head of Pamukkale University, told SETimes.

The strategic incentives put Turkey in the same position with the European Union concerning the Cyprus issue. The president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on the urgency to re-start the talks during Erdogan’s recent visit to Brussels.

“We agreed on the urgent need to find a comprehensive settlement to the Cyprus issue. This is surely in our common interest and a decisive move in this field would no doubt also be conducive to progress in Turkey’s wider relations with the European Union,” Barroso said during a joint news conference with Erdogan.

However, economic interests for the reunification of the island do not necessarily reflect on political interests. Parties are still at odds whether the unified island should be a federation or there should be a two-state solution. Northern Cyprus is still clinging to its two-state demands while the Cyprus government is willing to make concessions in a federal solution framework.

Some experts say the positions of the two sides are not far apart.

“Both sides are saying the same thing in different words. If the sides agree on the wording, talks can be concluded,” Sylvia Tiryaki, founder of Global Political Trends Centre, an Istanbul-based think tank, told SETimes.

The establishment of a federation or confederation would be the ideal solution to the issue, according to Tiryaki, who said this would “create less turmoil internationally” compared to a unitary state solution.

Despite all the good intentions, negotiations are expected to take time.

“This year a solution is impossible. After the talks both communities must go to a referendum. I do not see a positive political climate for the reunification in either side,” Bagci said.

However, he said that the openings of new chapters in Turkey-EU negotiation talks might create a momentum for Cyprus talks as well.

Greek and Turkish Cypriots have lived estranged since 1974 when the Turkish army took control of the northern part of the island, resulting in a de-facto partition. Cyprus has become a member of the EU and since then has become a threat to Turkey’s aspirations to join the European bloc. The discovery of vast natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean created tension in the region between Turkey and Cyprus and sped up the process for the reopening of the peace talks.

The article Regional Developments Push Turkish And Greek Cypriot Leaders Toward Peace appeared first on Eurasia Review.

29 Al-Qaeda Men Extradited To Saudi Arabia

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By Arab News

By Ghazanfar Ali Khan

Yemen has extradited 29 Al-Qaeda militants to Saudi Arabia. The militants have been captured by Yemeni security agencies in operations over the last few years.

These militants, mostly Saudi nationals, were on the Kingdom’s wanted list for terror-related crimes, according to Saudi and Yemeni sources.

Maj. Gen. Mansour Al-Turki, a spokesman at the Ministry of Interior, could neither confirm nor deny the extradition report, posted on Yemen’s Ministry of Defense website on Tuesday. He told Arab News, however, the information on the matter would soon be released. “I will release a statement as soon as I get the information from security departments in the Kingdom,” he said.

An Arab diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Sanaa gradually handed over the 29 militants to Saudi Arabia during the last few days.

“Both countries are closely working to ensure safety and security in Yemen and particularly on the Saudi-Yemeni borders,” said the diplomat, while referring to growing Saudi and GCC interests in Yemen. Yemen, which neighbors Saudi Arabia, is home to one of Al-Qaeda’s most active branches, known as “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” whose several plots to attack Western targets, including airliners, were foiled in the past.

Only a few weeks ago, a group of Arab and Saudi militants were behind a massive car bombing and an assault on Yemen’s military headquarters, which killed more than 50 people.

Saudi Arabia has been doling out massive funds to Yemen as part of its peace and security plan. The Kingdom recently donated SR750 million to King Abdullah Medical City project in Sanaa.

The article 29 Al-Qaeda Men Extradited To Saudi Arabia appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Yemen: Don’t Shoot Yourself In The Foot – OpEd

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By Arab News

By Abdulateef Al-Mulhim

Once known as the Happy Yemen (Yemen Saeed), it is more than just a country. It is one of the oldest centers of civilization.

In recent years, Yemenis helped build their neighboring countries but somehow did not work for the uplift of their own. Yemenis are hardworking people and have an astonishing ability to adapt to changing environments. It is mainly due to this quality that they can be found all across the world and praised for living in harmony with people from diverse cultural background. Ironically though, they fail to tolerate each other in their own country.

Internal disputes and tribal rivalries have cost the country hundreds of thousands of lives and destroyed the already primitive infrastructure.

In the not so distant future, it may become the world’s first country to run out of water. This writer feels that it is not just water; it is also running out of time. A bloody civil war between the south and north and tribal disputes have aggravated the situation.

With a population of more than 20 million, Yemen is one of the most underdeveloped countries of the region with one of the highest birth rates. With few major cities such as Sanaa, Hudaidah and Aden, majority of the people live in small towns and villages scattered across the country. Had it not been for the continuous fighting, Yemen could have been a prosperous country. Sadly though, it is because of the Yemenis that this country is lagging behind in almost every sphere of life. So, who is going to save Yemen from its own people?

The country was divided between the Ottoman and British empires in the early 20th century. Later the two sides emerged as independent countries only to get united in 1990 to form the modern republic of Yemen. Despite this union, the two sides always remained at loggerheads. Being one of the ancient centers of civilization, Yemen is home to many historical sites. If planned properly, it could become a great tourist attraction in the region that could help boost economy of the country. Obviously for that to happen, it has to be politically stable.

Yemen has been largely dependent on foreign aid. The neighboring Gulf countries and other western states have been injecting billions of dollars into the Yemeni economy to keep it afloat. It, however, remains a mystery as to where those foreign funds evaporated. The description of Yemen will remain incomplete without the mention of Qat. It is a flowering plant and is kind of a drug. A large number of Yemenis are addicted to it. The number of small arms perhaps exceeds the total population and the arms market in Yemen is often described as the largest open market in the world. You can buy any kind of weapon freely and in the open. Poverty and a lack of good education made Yemen an open ground for infiltrators. Al-Qaeda made its base after the US invasion of Afghanistan and became not a threat to itself but a threat to the world.

It is reported that 9/11 attacks were rehearsed in Yemen with the attack on the US Navy destroyer, USS Cole. Now, Yemen is not going to be bifurcated, it will be divided into six regions. And the question now is how these six regions are going to be governed and ruled?

It is mainly up to the people of Yemen to rise from the ashes of years-long wars and conflicts. Neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia are more than willing to help Yemen rise once again. For that to materialize, Yemenis have to close their ranks by setting aside their political differences in the larger interest of their homeland.

There are hundreds of thousands of Yemenis who work in the Kingdom and the foreign remittances serve as a lifeline for the crumbling economy. It is up to the Yemenis who could once again bring back the good old days when the country was fondly referred to as “Happy Yemen.” Foreign assistance in this regard is important and at the end of the day, the onus lies on the Yemenis to steer their country out of the current political mess. This writer feels that Yemenis have suffered a lot. It is high time that they resolved their issues amicably and worked together for the uplift of their beautiful country, which is full of potential to grow into a great nation.

The article Yemen: Don’t Shoot Yourself In The Foot – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Is Saudi Arabia Heading East? – OpEd

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By Arab News

By Mohammed Fahad Al-Harthi

With major political changes sweeping the Middle East and the balance of power shifting, there has been a raging debate lately about Saudi-American differences, particularly the Kingdom’s dissatisfaction with the US administration’s position on sensitive issues that have far-reaching consequences for the region.

The planned visit by US President Barack Obama to these shores at the end of March indicates that relations between the two countries need reinforcement.

Washington is clearly aware of Riyadh’s disappointment at America’s lack of interest and unclear vision in the Middle East. The pending issues, which show the divide in thinking between the countries, include the United States’ failure to resolve the Syrian crisis.

In addition, the new puppy love romance between Washington and Tehran raises important questions on the direction of America’s policy in the region.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal recently confirmed that strategic relations continue to exist between the two nations but admitted the existence of “natural” disagreements.

Exercising political realism, Riyadh is working to create a balance between the various powers in the region. An important aspect of this approach requires a readiness to face all scenarios.

In his book “Theory of International Politics,” the American politician and founder of the new realism theory, Kenneth Waltz, argues that countries should prepare themselves militarily, economically and politically for any eventuality in the world. They should never allow themselves to get into a position where they have to depend on the mercy of others.

It is therefore of great significance that Saudi Arabia has shown a renewed interest in the Orient. Of particular importance are the planned visits of Crown Prince Salman, deputy premier and minister of defense, to Pakistan, India and Japan later this month. The defense minister’s deputy, Prince Salman bin Sultan, had also visited Pakistan last week, demonstrating the importance of the region to Riyadh.

As a sovereign power, it is in Saudi Arabia’s interests to continually expand its strategic relations in the region and make decisions based on its national interests. This is what all great powers do, they sway with the world’s changing demands.

It is clear that recent changes in the oil business will have a say in future Saudi-American relations. The growing oil shale industry in the US and the availability of neighboring importers means a new status quo in the oil markets. While analysts do not expect the US to drift completely away from quality Saudi oil, this new reality means that Far Eastern countries are becoming Riyadh’s largest importers.

Ali Al-Naimi, the oil minister, says that the assumption that the US’ dependence on Saudi oil will end, is frivolous. The Saudi movement to the East is therefore a strategy based on its needs.

When Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah toured countries in the Near East in an acclaimed visit in 2006, Saudi businesses made major investments, opening the door for strong economic relations.

Saudis want to ensure their ties with countries are based on mutually beneficial economic interests. This is why the crown prince is accompanied by a senior delegation of businessmen. Saudi Arabia seeks to build strategic relationships, not only short-term political deals.

Saudis also value the importance of cultural interaction. The country’s foreign scholarship program is a prime example. Tens of thousands of Saudis are now studying in Asia, demonstrating a shift in focus from the West to the East.

This move by the Saudi government is the right decision because it takes into account new realties on the ground and is the essence of political realism. In any case, warmer relations with nations in the East do not undermine its strategic relationships in the West, and with the US in particular. It simply opens new horizons and options.

Policy decisions based on mutating interests and power shifts are inevitably successful. A smart and wise player is always ready for all eventualities, and has the appropriate cards ready at the right time.

The article Is Saudi Arabia Heading East? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China’s Unfolding Indian Ocean Strategy – Analysis

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By SAAG

By D. S. Rajan

“ The Greater Indian Ocean region stretching eastward from the Horn of Africa past the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian plateau and the Indian subcontinent, all the way to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond, will be the centre of global conflicts, because most international business supply will be conducted through this route. Most important of all, it is in this region the interests and influence of India, China and the United States are beginning to overlap and intersect. It is here the 21st century’s global power dynamics will be revealed……. two key players in this region are India and China- India moving east and west while China to the South”- Robert Kaplan, in “Monsoon- the Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power”, 21 November 2010.

2. The quote above undoubtedly leads to a pertinent question – in what way the policy makers in the three potentially big players in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), are now preparing to meet the long term projections made in Kaplan’s obviously accurate prognosis? In other words, what is the nature of current IOR strategies of these powers and what will be their geo-strategic implications?

3. Taking the case of People’s Republic of China (PRC) , it cannot be denied that the PRC’s strategic focus till now continues to be on the Pacific and not on the Indian Ocean region. It would however be a folly to ignore the gradually unfolding changes in the perceptions of Beijing on the IOR’s strategic importance; they are indeed pointers to the future. As for now, Beijing’s principal interest seems to lie in the need to protect the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCS) along the Indian Ocean, vital for the country’s energy imports. While this is being so, official-level articulations on China’s IOR views are gradually gaining intensity, which may culminate in China’s coming out with a comprehensive Indian Ocean doctrine ultimately.

4. It is not difficult to trace the connection between the changing Chinese perceptions on the IOR and the steady emergence of maritime security interests, marking a new trend since the end of cold war, as a key element of China’s overall national security strategy. To help achieving the declared goal of turning the country as a fully modernised one by middle of the century, the PRC has evolved an overall strategic approach enmeshing the requirements of land, maritime, economy and energy security. Out of these, the criticality of maritime aspect has risen as a result of the compulsions which China began to experience for getting access to all strategic resources and protecting critical sea lanes transporting energy supplies from abroad, in the overall interest of its development. As corollary, the PRC’s naval objectives have undergone a shift – from that of conducting coastal defence activities to offshore defence and ultimately to far sea defence. A case in point is the stress noticed in China’s latest Defence White Paper (2013) on “protecting national maritime rights and interests” and “armed forces providing reliable support for China’s interests overseas”. It is clear that the PRC intends to expand the capabilities of its Navy, especially to operate abroad; this indeed marks a new stage in China’s development which has come into being due to the increasing needs being felt by a rising China to secure its growing global interests.

5. China is now turning its security policies into action. The PRC’s ongoing naval modernisation efforts are gaining momentum which confirm Beijing’s intentions to expand the country’s naval capabilities so as to operate in waters far beyond its borders. Against the roles allotted to it to defeat invasion from sea, defend territorial sovereignty and protect maritime rights, the PLA Navy is upgrading its destroyers and frigates to range further. Testing of 056 stealth frigate and the entry into service of China’s first air craft carrier, need to be seen in this context. In a nutshell, China’s naval capabilities are increasing day by day thanks to its ongoing modernization programme in developing Anti- Ship Ballistic Missiles, Anti-Ship cruise missiles, submarines, both conventional and nuclear, amphibious ships, land based air craft, unmanned aerial vehicles, Electro-magnetic pulse weapons and maritime surveillance. It is believed that naval modernization can lead to China’s projection of power into the first island chain (Taiwan) and even upto the second island chain (Guam) , hurting American interests. The establishment of Yalong naval base near Sanya may have strategic implications for military balance in Asia-Pacific region ( Carlyle A. Thayer, paper to international workshop on South China Sea , Ho Chi Minh city, 18-21 November 2012).

6.The Chinese Navy’s field activities now include its participation in the joint anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia in 2011 and its ship to ship replenishment exercise in Eastern Indian Ocean in December 2013 as well as the ‘counter-piracy, search, rescue and damage control drill’, carried out in January 2014 by a three-ship Chinese navy squadron. In the last mentioned, the largest amphibious Chinese landing ship – Changbaishan – along with two destroyers took part. The choice of Lombok Strait near Indonesia, as drill location has been significant as by doing so, Beijing seems to have opened up a new route from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, other than the usual one used for drills through the Malacca Strait. Interesting are Chinese official observations being noticed that the drill is a part of ‘annually held naval combat exercises in the South China Sea, the West Pacific Ocean and the East Indian Ocean to test the combat ability of naval ships’.

7. China’s actions in deploying attack submarines in the Indian Ocean, is receiving India’s attention. Noting this development, an Indian official document, titled ‘Indian Navy: Perceived Threats to Subsurface Deterrent Capability and Preparedness’, prepared by the Integrated Defence Staff in New Delhi predicted intense rivalry between the Indian and Chinese navies in the next three years as the “implicit focus” of the Chinese Navy appears to be on undermining the Indian Navy’s edge “to control highly sensitive sea lines of communication (“ China’s submarines in Indian Ocean worry Indian Navy”, Alfred Wilhelm Meier, China Daily Mail , 7 April 2013, http://chinadailymail.com/2013/04/07/chinas-submarines-in-indian-ocean-w…).

8. The first firm signal that maritime security interests dominate China’s thinking on the IOR came through a statement (Galle, Sri Lanka, 13 December 2012) made by Vice Admiral Su Zhiqian, Commander of the East China Sea Fleet of the Chinese Navy. It laid stress on the ‘freedom and safety of the navigation in the Indian Ocean’ acting as a crucial factor in global economy and declared that the Chinese navy will actively maintain the peace and stability of the Indian Ocean through carrying out ‘maritime security cooperation’ with the navies of various countries, especially seeking to establish a maritime security ‘code of conduct’ between them under the ‘premise of respect for each country’s sovereignty and maritime interests’ ( “Chinese Navy to Actively Maintain Peace and Stability of Indian Ocean”, China Military Online, 15 December 2012).

9. One can see the next signal in the Blue Book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) released in June 2013. It had chapters on India’s “Look East Policy” and the “U.S-India axis of relation in Indian Ocean region”. As a document of an authoritative Chinese think tank, it appears as policy indicators. The Blue Book observed that “In the past, China’s Indian Ocean strategy was based on ‘moderation’ and ‘maintaining the status quo’, but the changing dynamics of international relations necessitates China play a more proactive role in affairs of the region”. It frankly admitted that Beijing presently is not having any Indian Ocean strategy unlike U.S. and India who were following a well-defined “Look East” policy and the “pivot” or “rebalancing” strategy respectively. Adding that In absence of a strategy , China’s development prospects would severely be hit, it observed, “With changes in the relations among countries in the Indian Ocean Region and in the international situation, China’s diplomacy should also change , but Beijing’s interests will be driven only by commercial, and not military, objectives”. The document asked China to deepen economic ties with the nations in the IOR while cautioning that if China, United States and India do not constructively engage each other, the Indian Ocean can end up as an ocean of conflict and trouble. As the CASS publication predicted, no single or regional power including Russia, China, Australia and India, can control the Indian Ocean by itself in the future and after jostling among powers, a fragile balance of power might be reached in the region. It acknowledged that the rise of China was worrying the littoral states of IOR, particularly India. “The ‘China threat theory’ proposed by Western countries and the illusory ‘string of pearls strategy was being projected as a new assertiveness of Beijing, it pointed out.

10. Further signals include observations on the US role in the IOR being made by Chinese academicians close to the official hierarchy. A study said that after the end of the cold war, the US became the leading force in the Indian Ocean and began its military forward deployment there. In recent years, with the rising of the strategic position of the Indian Ocean, the US put forward the “Indo-Pacific” concept and strengthened its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean, such as maintaining its dominant position, protecting the safety of sea lines of communication and continuing to control strategic chokepoints, etc. Driven by ideology and economic factors, the US has obtained hegemony in the Indian Ocean via military deployment and institutional arrangements, (“U.S. Indian Ocean Strategy”, Pacific Journal, June 2013, Sun Xianpu, Yunnan University, Kunming).

11. Other Influential Chinese scholars have assessed that at present, in the Indian Ocean region, there is a ‘no alliance, no adversary’ situation of ‘flexible balance; this may however change and China should respond by seeking ‘greater space’ for it in the Indian Ocean region (Chen lijun and Xu Juan, “Flexible Balance and Economic Strategies of China, the US and India in Indian ocean”, South Asia Studies, Volume 4/12, 15 July 2013).

12. Chinese analysts have also commented in the IOR strategy of India. The launch of India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier Vikrant on 12 August 2013 has been viewed them as reflecting India’s “ambition to dominate the Indian Ocean” and heralding a greater Indian presence in the Pacific. The experts alleged that the US wants to push India to integrate into its system to contain China and encourages India to intervene in Asia-Pacific affairs under the “Indo-Pacific” concept, but India prefers balancing China naturally by ensuring peaceful and fruitful competition and has no intention of becoming a regional test balloon by going against China ( Fu Xiaoqiang, a scholar at the China Institute for Contemporary International Relations – CICIR, China Daily, 12 August 2013).

13. Among subsequent commentaries on the IOR made by influential Chinese academicians, an article of a leading state-controlled Chinese think tank, look very significant. The write-up declared that China’s strategic focus is the Pacific rather than the Indian Ocean and the PRC lags far behind the US in terms of maritime power and does not enjoy India’s geographic advantages. It asserted that China follows a naval strategy aimed at ensuring a ‘harmonious sea’ through capacity building and international cooperation, viewing the region surrounding the Indian Ocean as a vital energy and trade route, not a battlefield for power struggle. China’s seaward policy is strongly influenced by trade and energy motives, and its open economy is becoming more interdependent with the outside world, particularly the Indian Ocean.

14. The article added that Chinese involvement in building infrastructure in the Indian Ocean region littorals is part of the PRC’s economy-oriented ‘Going Global’ strategy. Interpreting India’s views on the Indian Ocean region as a sum-up of senses of crisis and destiny, it says that as for crisis, Indian politicians and strategists pay great attention to the linkages between Indian Ocean and India’s national security and as for destiny, India’s unique geographic location forms the cornerstone of India’s aspiration to dominate Indian Ocean or even to transform Indian Ocean into India’s Ocean. Contrasting India’s position with that of the US , the article found that the US seeks to be a hegemonic maritime power that is not only dominant in the Atlantic or Pacific, but also in the Indian Ocean. Although it stresses the importance of a cooperative maritime strategy, the US is still trying to maintain its status as a pre-eminent maritime power. In accordance with the shift of the world power balance, the US will seek to sustain its strong presence in the Indian Ocean.

15. In conclusion, the article said that although confrontations and conflicts between China, US and India have been predicted in this region, particularly with the rise of China’s maritime power, their different strategic goals may lead to different results. It added that given the China’s policy aims, intent and capability, the PRC cannot afford to challenge either the United States or India. But with the rapid growth of its economic and military power, India is likely to adopt a more assertive maritime presence in the Indian Ocean. Thus, considering that the US wants to maintain its maritime dominance, an India–US potential power struggle in the Indian Ocean is more likely to characterize the Indian Ocean region landscape than the ‘China threat’ ( “Power Politics in the Indian Ocean: Don’t Exaggerate the China Threat”, 24 October 2013, Chun Hao Lou, Assistant Director at the Institute of Maritime Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations –CICIR, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/10/24/power-politics-in-the-indian-oce… ).

16. The data given above, give enough hints to the likely shape of China’s future Indian Ocean Region (IOR) strategy. Given below is an estimate of the same and possible regional consequences of responses of other two important involved powers like the US and India.

(a) China’s priority will always be on protecting its energy security interests, by way of securing the Sea Lanes of Communications, spreading from the Gulf to the South China Sea. In the short and middle terms, realising its existing inferior position compared to US maritime power and India’s strategic advantage in the IOR, China may persist with its ‘harmonious sea’ approach. It will shun a military approach and push for ‘constructive engagement’ in the IOR between three powers – the US, China and India, and concentrate on achieving ‘greater space’ in the IOR by way of promoting maritime security cooperation with the Indian Ocean littorals. In long terms, China, under perceived conditions of continuance of India’s domination and the US strong presence in the IOR, may intend to project its own power into the region to bring about a balance to the situation. Beijing may actively work for creating alternative energy supply routes, safe from the US and Indian challenges.

(b) China’s current fears that the US is trying to contain the PRC by roping in Indian Ocean littorals, under an ‘Indo-Pacific’ framework, may always influence Chinese strategic thinking. In this context, one can expect China’s increased efforts to woo these littorals through economic and other means so as to keep them away from the US influence. Its drive to build infrastructure in IOR littorals as part of its ‘going global’ strategy, is already setting the trend in this regard.

(c ) On India, influencing China’s strategy in a long term, will be the thought figuring in the Chinese analyses so far noticed- India , with its regional economic and political power rising, may become more assertive in the IOR. At the same time, China tends to believe that India will always maintain its strategic autonomy vis-à-vis other nations and will not gang up with the latter, particularly the US, against the PRC’s interests. Wooing India will therefore be China’s long term endeavour; the PRC’s “Look west” strategy accords primacy to and rebalance ties with India (being publicised through highly placed Chinese scholars like Wang Jisi).

17. Indian response to China’s Indian Ocean strategy is manifesting in its stepped up efforts to improve bilateral ties with Indian Ocean littorals. Significant is New Delhi’s participation in the multilateral fora like the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) and the Indian Ocean Naval symposium. The US is reportedly under invitation to join the IOR-ARC.

18. Washington’s interest in the IOR centres round three imperatives for the US- Securing Indian Ocean for international commerce, avoiding regional conflict on issues of strategic choke points in the IOR- Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca strait, and dealing with Sino-Indian competition in the IOR (“Defining U.S. Indian Ocean Strategy” , The Washington Quarterly, published by Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington). The Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) 2010 of the US Department of Defence had the goals of ensuring open access to the IOR to be achieved through a more integrated approach across civil and military organisations. The Department’s document “ Strategic Choices and Management Review” ( July 2013) stressed the need for US to develop an Indian Ocean policy on the basis of building coalitions with regional allies like Australia, Japan and the Philippines and partners like Vietnam and India. The QDR for 2014 is yet to be made public. The US is currently promoting an “Indo-Pacific” concept as part of its approach towards the IOR; this means differently to each of the countries concerned. New Delhi views the concept in the background of India’s ‘geographical, historical and political ‘necessity. It displays wariness to China’s expanding engagement in the region. For China, the concept marks creation of a highway connecting Indian and Pacific Oceans which can play a role in transporting much-needed resources. But it is suspicious of US intentions to use the concept for containing China. On its part, Washington aims to achieve through implementing the concept, the freedom of navigation and reassurance to allies and partners. Australia sees the concept as benevolent one to improve ties with regional nations (http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/01/09/Different-visions-of-the-…)

19. To sum up, the geo-strategic conditions in the IOR are still developing. The current trends being seen indicating that the three main powers involved – India, China and the US, have their own priorities, with potentials for clash, may not be conducive to the establishment of regional peace and prosperity , a dream of all concerned nations.

(The writer, D.S.Rajan, is Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: director.c3s@gmail.com)

The article China’s Unfolding Indian Ocean Strategy – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Al-Qaeda-ISIL Split: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly – Analysis

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By IPCS

By Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy

In the first week of February 2014, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the commander-in-chief of the al-Qaeda made a statement disowning the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Al-Zawahiri, who took charge following former chief Osama bin Laden’s death, announced (and jihadist websites quoted) that the ISIL “is not a branch of the al-Qaeda group [and al-Qaeda] does not have an organisational relationship with it and is not the group responsible for their actions.”

The Good

While this in-fighting and the fragmentation of the world’s most organised militant organisations is certainly good news, the split between al-Qaeda and its former Iraqi affiliate is not unprecedented.

There were tensions between the two groups and their then leaders Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi even as early as 2006. However, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the current head of the ISIL, and Ayman al-Zawahiri have been sparring over conflicting views regarding their goals and the means used to achieve them, for the past several months.

Fissures appeared when the ISIL took measures to expand its scope by co-opting the al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (alternately known as the al-Nusra Front) to fight Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the country. As soon as the merger was announced, al-Zawahiri rejected it and recognised al-Nusra as its sole affiliated entity in Syria. Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of the al-Nusra Front too acknowledged only a relationship, and rejecting any merger with the then Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), confirmed their allegiance solely to al-Qaeda.

Since then, the ISIL and the al-Nusra have manifestly worked towards differing goals, and with different means. While the al-Nusra’s main objective is to topple the Assad regime and at the same time maintain ties with fellow militant rebel groups, the ISIL’s core focus appears to be towards territorial expansion for spreading and implementing its extremely draconian interpretations of Islamic law – and eventually establish an Islamic Caliphate in the region. The ISIL employs barbaric tactics on all, and are resented even by their fellow militant organisations. The al-Nusra Front on the other hand, although militant, tries not to alienate the civilian population with extreme brutality.

The ISIL’s methods have driven the other militant factions in Syria, including the al-Nusra Front, to rebel against them. Given the fact that the Front has the widest reach and has proven to be most ‘effective’ in Syria, the decision to disown the ISIL is in al-Qaeda’s interest. The actions of the ISIL have been garnering opposition from other rebel groups and civilians, and al-Zawahiri would not want to risk any clout that al-Qaeda and/or its affiliates enjoy in any region.

The Bad

Al-Baghdadi’s resilience against al-Zawahiri’s overtures and warnings indicates the existence of a graver reality. The former’s motivation to stick to his ground originates from the fact that the ISIL has managed to break away from being solely funded by the al-Qaeda. His funding now flows in from individuals and organisations from various West Asian nations who have vested interests in Syria and Iraq. An example of this is the US Department of the Treasury designating Qatar-based Abd al-Rahman bin Umayr al-Nuaymi and Yemen-based Abd al-Wahhab Muhammad Abd al-Rahman al-Humayqani as ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorists’ for providing financial support to al-Qaeda, Asbat al-Ansar, al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the al-Shabaab, in December 2013 (US Department of the Treasury, Treasury designates al-qa’ida supporters in Qatar and Yemen, 2013).

Given the statistics and mounting evidence, it is likely that al-Baghdadi had breached the walls of the terrorist funding supply chain long before 2013, when he openly started rebelling against al-Zawahiri.

This, along with the establishment of an institutionalised and organised system of revenue collection in the areas controlled by the ISIL (then the Islamic State of Iraq), cemented their existence as a formidable force in the region.

The Ugly

While this disavowing by the al-Qaeda is essentially its attempt to assert and proclaim its role, authority, and influence in the Syrian civil war, the implications of this move will be many and far-reaching, and much beyond the Syrian question.

The ISIL, led by al-Baghdadi, is unlikely to become ‘obedient’ as al-Zawahiri would like it. On the contrary, they will likely dig in their heels and launch a more serious and savage offensive, especially since they now have to prove their worth and efficacy devoid of any association with the terrorist world’s most organised outfit, the al-Qaeda.

Given the several vested interests West Asian nations have in the Syrian civil war, they will be dragged deeper into the complex quagmire. The Kurdish struggle for autonomy that has been palpitating for several decades and has found renewed momentum since the outbreak of the Arab Awakening will flare up, with revivified clashes between the Syrian Kurds and the ISIL.

More importantly, this will eventually lead to a power struggle between several players from within and outside Syria, with grave economic, security (regional and international), and humanitarian consequences.

In the event of the ISIL managing to stand their ground, which seems likely – given their diverse funding and revenue sources, and since they control several resource-rich areas – there will be two formidable Islamist terrorist groups in the world, and a power struggle between the two will bring nothing short of worse days to come.

Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy
Research Officer, IPCS

The article Al-Qaeda-ISIL Split: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

South Korea’s Air Force: Does It Have A Coherent Strategy? – Analysis

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By RSIS

The Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) still lacks several critical features that would make it a credible independent fighting force. The ROKAF must ultimately come up with its own coherent operational doctrines and strategy, besides developing flexible and wide-ranging capabilities.

By Jeong Lee

SINCE THE late 1990s, the South Korean armed forces have attempted to transform themselves into an independent military that is capable of dealing with hybrid threats emanating from North Korea on the one hand, and with its rivalry with its powerful neighbours, namely Japan and China, on the other.

However, while the United States seems determined to hand over wartime operational control to the ROK military effective December 2015, the Park Geun-hye administration appears reluctant to exercise independent control over its military, despite repeated assurances from the Obama administration that it will work closely at strategic levels with the ROK government to deter the North Korean threats.

Reasons for Seoul’s reluctance

What explains this reluctance may involve several factors. Firstly, as Michael Raska points out, the ROK military’s attempts to incorporate the “revolution in military affairs” has been marked by what he calls “patterns of speculation and experimentation in terms of concepts, doctrine, and technology; however, with a relatively limited implementation of the use of force”.

Secondly, notwithstanding the qualitative advantages that the ROK Air Force (ROKAF) supposedly enjoys over the North Korean Air Force, these do not necessarily translate into effectiveness or victory, because possession of hardware without clear geostrategic objectives and coherent operational doctrines tailored specifically to the needs of the service is basically meaningless. These factors may suggest that, without the presence of its American ally, it is doubtful that the ROKAF can carry out a war. So what does the ROK air strategy involve?

The ROKAF’s officially stated missions are four-fold: deterrence; protection of the ROK airspace; “victory in war;” and “furtherance of national interests and contribution to world peace”. Of the four, the first, second, and fourth objectives closely mirror the strategic and operational mindset of ROKAF officers at the lieutenant colonel level and above. Also, no ROKAF officers seem to believe in achieving a clear, categorical victory in the event of war—even with the acquisition of stealth capabilities.

According to retired Lieutenant General Park Song-kuk, the ROKAF’s strategic goals are “to win and support national reunification while minimising casualties and damage to South Korea’s infrastructure”. But at the same time, he avers that, in the event of territorial rows with either Japan or China, “our military capability is not aimed to dominate or win a war with those nations”. Indeed, one ROKAF fighter squadron commander seemed to second this view when he told me, “while Japan and China may be our potential rivals someday, it never pays to antagonise them, since an all-out confrontation involving any of the two states will prove deadly”.

This assertion is revealing for two reasons: On the one hand, it shows that the ROK military planners view stealth fighter squadrons as “quick-reaction forces that are capable of exercising all types of air operations in the Korea Air Defence Identification Zone”. On the other hand, in addition to the potential “structural disarmament” argument as a result of the ROKAF procurement and acquisition of F-35As, and the reluctance to increase the defence budget may suggest that the ROKAF decided to purchase only 40 F-35As because “the size of high quality weapon systems [must] be small enough so that neighbouring countries may not consider them a threat”.

Redressing inherent deficiencies

Such contradictory assumptions do not provide convincing arguments for the belief that stealth fighter capabilities would “give [the ROKAF] the capability to surreptitiously strike at the heart of [their] adversaries and guarantee [their] survivability” because stealth fighters might find themselves encumbered by elaborate rules of engagement which may limit their freedom of action.

Furthermore, in the event of a localised asymmetric conflict with North Korea, fielding one over-strength stealth fighter group without additional support from its sister fighter wings, and without fully developed ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) capabilities, will not likely satisfy its need for numerical advantages.

Simply put, pinning hopes on stealth capabilities is naïve and self-defeating in that it deprives the ROKAF of much-needed flexibility in the operational and tactical realms. So what can be done to redress the deficiencies inherent in the ROKAF operational and strategic thinking?

Firstly, the US Air Force may need to provide ROKAF with strategic guidance until the latter is capable of formulating and implementing its own. Secondly, rather than insist upon fielding stealth capabilities only, the ROKAF must develop flexible and wide-ranging capabilities, which include ISR and aerial refueling capabilities.

It must also complement stealth fighter capabilities with fourth-generation fighters to prevent structural disarmament. Already, the ROKAF has proven willingness to do so when it ordered BAE to upgrade its fleet of KF-16s.

Thirdly and most importantly, the ROKAF itself must ultimately come up with its own coherent operational doctrines and strategy. One way of doing this is for its Chief of Staff to select the brightest and the most promising officers, and to have them debate, test, and formulate their own operational doctrines according to the specific needs of the service. This ensures not only pragmatism, but also fosters creative thinking.

Jeong Lee is a freelance writer whose writings on US defence and foreign policy issues and inter-Korean affairs have appeared on various online publications. This commentary is adapted from his speech to the 7th Asia Pacific Security Conference (APSEC 2014) held in conjunction with the Singapore Airshow.

The article South Korea’s Air Force: Does It Have A Coherent Strategy? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

EU Ministers Link GM Crops Approval To Future Elections

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By MINA

Leading EU agricultural nations remain steadfast in their battle against GM crops. Dozen national European ministers warn against approving GM maize and forebode protest voting during the next EU parliamentary elections in May.

Once Brussels announced it would approve the cultivation of US-developed genetically modified maize in Europe despite opposition of the majority of the EU member states, 12 ministers of national governments wrote a letter to European Health Commissioner Tonio Borg, demanding that approval be blocked of GM maize grown for human consumption in Europe.

At a meeting in Brussels earlier this week, 19 out of 28 EU member states refused to give a green light to the insect-resistant Pioneer 1507 corn developed by DuPon and Dow Chemical. Four countries, including agricultural giant Germany, abstained in the voting.

But under EU rules, the Commission is empowered to approve GM for cultivation.

The letter, signed by foreign and European affairs ministers from Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland and Slovenia, is dated February 12.

The ministers gave Brussels a warning that citizens of EU member states are likely to express their generally negative attitude towards GM crops at the European Parliament elections in May.

“Those who believe in the value of the EU to its citizens are rightly concerned how this will play out in the upcoming European elections,” the letter says.

The stand-off may eventually lead to a situation when GM crops would be allowed in the EU in general, with all countries reserving the right to ban GM nationwide, Reuters reported.

Five EU countries, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and in particular Spain and UK, are advocating GM crops, pointing out it would be tough for their farmers to compete with rivals from those nations where growing GM crops is legal.

European agricultural producers generally do not approve of genetically modified crops, which are widely cultivated in both Americas and Asia, due to health and ecological concerns. Yet one GM modification of maize, MON 810 made by US-based biotechnology giant Monsanto, is grown in the EU. According to the European Commission, MON 810 maize occupies only 1.35 percent of the EU’s total maize-growing area, mostly in Spain, with 116,306 hectares.

At the same time 49 varieties of GM crops, mostly maize, Pioneer 1507 included, are approved for animal feed in the EU.

The European Commission fully backs this type of GM crop, saying extensive scientific research has confirmed that modern GM crops are safe. Meat of GM-raised animals is already being sold in Europe without restrictions.

Genetically modified crops are developed to be resistant to pesticides and herbicides. DuPont and Dow Chemical’s Pioneer 1507 maize begets a pesticide toxin itself and is also resistant to a weed-killer called glufosinate ammonium.

Greenpeace, the environmental group, claims that glufosinate ammonium is harmful to butterflies and moths and “will be banned in the EU by 2017 due to its toxicity.”

The article EU Ministers Link GM Crops Approval To Future Elections appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Georgia Central Bank Increases Key Rate To 4%

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By Civil.Ge

(Civil.Ge) — The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) increased its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% on February 12, saying “there is no further need to retain an accommodative monetary policy” due to recent trends in economy.

This is the first upward revision in two and a half years during which the key rate saw decline from 8% to 3.75% – the lowest rate since January 2008, when Georgia’s central bank launched setting of monthly refinancing rate.

Annual inflation was 2.9% in January, up from 2.4% figure recorded in December. Government’s forecast for 2014 end of the year annual inflation is 3.5%, according to the state budget.

The central bank said that inflation is expected to reach its target level in the second half of 2014.

It said that economic growth gathered speed in recent months, mainly due to increase in domestic demand, and this trend is expected to continue in the first half of 2014. It also noted 16% increase in banks’ loan portfolio.

“Preliminary indicators, as measured in January, also point towards the retention of this trend,” the central bank said, adding that with increase of its key rate it started withdrawal of the accommodative monetary policy, “provided that the aforementioned trends are maintained” in coming months.

The article Georgia Central Bank Increases Key Rate To 4% appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Concerns Extremism Spreading In Balkan Prisons

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By SETimes

By Miki Trajkovski

Correctional institutions in the Balkans are fertile grounds for recruitment into Islamic extremist groups, security experts said.

“Prisons are the safest places to preach radical Islamic and other extremist confessional beliefs,” Ivan Babanovski, former head of Macedonia’s state security agency, told SETimes.

Experts said Karray Kamel Bin Ali, also known as Abu Hamza, was among the first Islamic extremists to have formed a recruiting network while serving a 10-year prison sentence in Zenica.

Abu Hamza was convicted for multiple murders and for preparing to assassinate the pope in 2003 and was deported from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to Tunisia in 2011.

“He gained permission to use a cell that he used for religious services with others, but also to recruit. Prison proved a very suitable place for recruiting and … the network still functions today,” Dzevad Galijasevic, former member of the Expert Team on Fighting Terrorism, Organised Crime and Corruption in Southeast Europe, told SETimes.

Galijasevic said the group has about 30 inmates comprised of those serving the longest sentences for heinous crimes.

“Those are people who are at the bottom of society and accepted radical Islam, but now fear revenge. They have no place to escape in prison,” he said.

Babanovski said the recruiters also try to reach the most vulnerable prisoners by offering them economic assistance.

Officials said proponents of Islamic extremism practice their religious traditions differently than other prisoners, but that is a constitutionally guaranteed right.

“So far, we have not noticed any activities suggesting threats to the peace and security in the prison,” Ivo Kotevski, spokesperson for the Macedonia interior ministry, told SETimes.

Nevertheless, extremism is on the increase, and some inmates represent a security threat once they are released, said Vasko Nikolovski, professor on terrorism at the MIT University in Skopje.

“They come out of prison as professionals, ready to do terrorist acts,” Nikolovski told SETimes.

Nikolovski said regional authorities lack full knowledge, as was the case with the number of local recruits who went on to fight in Syria, which points to the need to learn how recruiters operate inside as well as outside of prisons.

Extremists maintain significant funds — an effective tool that has helped spread radical Islam in Kosovo, BiH, Montenegro and throughout the Balkans, Nikolovski said

All this points to the need to bridge the gap by increasing surveillance of people from the Islamic world suspected of organising the recruiting, Babanovski said.

“Certainly, a greater control is needed of people who come here as immigrants from the Islamic countries,” Babanovski said.

Correspondent Drazen Remikovic in Sarajevo contributed to this report.

The article Concerns Extremism Spreading In Balkan Prisons appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Serbia: Minority Councils Protest Court Ruling

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By SETimes

By Bojana Milovanovic

The question of minority rights in Serbia is one of the country’s most important issues on its road to EU accession, but some say that a recent decision by the constitutional court threatens progress on the issue.

The court’s ruling that 10 articles of the law on national minority councils are wholly or partially unconstitutional has upset both Serbian government officials and the national councils. The court said the provision regulating the councils’ authority over the so-called “institutions of special importance for national minorities” is unlawful. The court also disputed the provision that says national councils have founding rights in the media.

The regulation on the national councils’ authority to appoint bodies to the state and provincial public media services is also unconstitutional, the court said.

The basis for the court ruling was that the articles favoured the minority groups and gave them rights that the majority population does not have.

The law on national minority councils was passed in 2009. The legislation created a system of self-governance for ethnic minorities which make up more than one-sixth of the population in Serbia. The law allows the councils to make decisions for their minority groups on matters of culture, education, media and official use of their languages.

The Serbian Office for Human and Minority Rights, together with the ministry of justice and state administration, will conduct an analysis of the law and the provisions that the court has ruled unconstitutional, office director Suzana Paunovic told SETimes.

“Together with the national councils, we will thoroughly analyse all the problems and undertake amendments to the law on the parts the constitutional court decisions refer to,” Paunovic said.

In Serbia’s negotiations with the EU, minority rights will be respected and observed, and special attention will be devoted to the matter, she said.

“One of the most important chapters in the negotiations with the EU, which will be among the first to be opened, pertains to minority rights. Together with our European partners we will harmonise all our regulations with European standards and give minority communities the broadest possible rights. Those rights already exist, but we will enhance them further and standardise them,” Paunovic said.

The Albanian National Council, the Bosniak National Council and the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs have all protested the court ruling.

Galip Beciri, the head of the Albanian National Council, and Esad Dzudzevic, president of the Bosniak National Council, said the court decision denies national minorities their rights, and they called for a reaction.

“The Bosniak National Council is dissatisfied with the decision of the constitutional court of Serbia, which disputed the legal provisions pertaining to the transfer of founding rights in educational institutions, cultural institutions and institutions that provide public information in a minority language only,” Dzudzevic said in a statement to SETimes.

He also said that if national minorities’ rights were endangered and diminished by the court ruling, he would address European institutions to protect their rights.

The Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also voiced concern over the decision.

A statement from the ministry said the ruling limits the rights of the Hungarian community in Vojvodina, which will mean a step back in terms of the results of minority self-government, according to web portal Vojvodina Danas.

The Hungarian ministry also noted its disappointment with the fact that the court voided the provision on the rights of national councils to co-operate with the state institutions.

The article Serbia: Minority Councils Protest Court Ruling appeared first on Eurasia Review.

From Music To Medicine

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By Eurasia Review

“If you had asked me six years ago, I would never have guessed that the video analysis system could be used in this way,” says Alexander Refsum Jensenius, Head of Department at the Department of Musicology, University of Oslo.

Some years ago, Jensenius developed a tool for measuring how we – professional musicians as well as ordinary folk – move to music.

“Initially, we planned to use the tool during concerts. By studying people’s movements, we can better understand how people perceive music,” he says.

Rats with ADHD

But Jensenius’s analytical tool was to prove that it had a far wider area of application.

It all started when neuroscientist Terje Sagvolden learned about the system.

“He was doing research on ADHD, among other through trials with rats, and it really caught his interest. He claimed that the system could be suitable for visualizing and systematizing the movements of the rats over time – and that this could provide new knowledge about ADHD,” says Jensenius.

The Norwegian daily Aftenposten published a feature on this unexpected collaboration. After that, the ball kept rolling.

Used around the world

“After this article had been published, I was contacted by Lars Adde, a physiotherapist at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He is undertaking research on the development of cerebral palsy – CP – in premature babies. Adde believed that the video analysis system could serve as a helpful tool for his research as well.

Adde claimed that mapping the babies’ movements could help reveal whether they were at risk of developing CP. In collaboration with Jensenius, he has now developed a pilot of how the video analysis system can be used for this purpose. At the moment, the system is being tested in several large hospitals in Norway, as well as in Chicago, South India and China.

The goal is to turn the video analysis system into a commonly used tool in all hospitals. To date, it has been tested on a little less than 1000 children.

“The system works approximately as follows: a camera is attached to a suitcase with a mattress in it, upon which the child is placed. The child is then filmed for some minutes, and the video file is subsequently analysed by a computer. The screen then displays graphs, curves and figures that describe the child’s movements.”

Based on the human being

Jensenius claims that the reason why his system may be well suited for research on premature babies is that it captures the totality of the child’s movements.

With his background in musicology, he has approached motion research with a different perspective than that of motion researchers in general, he claims.

“In contrast to a lot of other motion research, I have been concerned with identifying the whole – not only how we move an arm or a leg, but to see how the entire body moves. As a musicologist, I also have an interest in matters such as rhythm and temporality in the movements,” Jensenius explains.

“It does not necessarily provide better knowledge about movement, but it can provide a different type of knowledge,” he says.

Nevertheless, Jensenius claims that there are more similarities between medical research and musicology than he has previously been aware of.

“It’s essential that both medical and musicological research focus on the human being. The understanding of music and the connection between music and movement are profoundly human phenomena. This may explain why research undertaken at the Department of Musicology has shown itself to be transferable to other disciplines,” he says.

New areas of application

In fact, Jensenius’s video analysis system is not the first research endeavour at the Department of Musicology that has found other applications than those initially planned.

Several student projects have been developed into something other than what they were intended for. For example, a ski training app and a body-based games console originated in musical instruments developed at the department.

“I believe that playfulness is a key component in the potentially wide application of projects developed in our department. Students are trained to use their creativity systematically – and they learn the craft of developing new technology.”

Jensenius also believes that humanities scholars may differ from many others in their approach to developing technology.

“We don’t develop technology for the sake of technology, but to achieve specific goals. We are primarily interested in people – their relationship to sound and movement,” he concludes.

The article From Music To Medicine appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Call To Scientists: Stop Excluding Left-Handed People From Scientific Studies!

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By Eurasia Review

Left-handed people really do have different brains and genes from right-handed people. Yet left-handed people are almost never included as study subjects in scientific research. Therefore in an article in Nature Reviews Neuroscience, Roel Willems and his colleagues from the Donders Institute and Max Planck Institute in Nijmegen call for more research into left-handed people. The article was published online on 12 February 2014.

Left-handed people are rarely included as study subjects for brain or genetic research because the differences with right-handed people cause noise in the final results. However, left-handed people form about ten percent of the entire population and their brains and genes contain interesting information about the functioning of both halves of the brain as well as about several psychiatric disorders.

“Research into left-handed people is therefore interesting because of the noise they cause,” thinks neuroscientist Roel Willems from the Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour at Radboud University Nijmegen. With the opinion article he calls upon his fellow researchers to stop excluding left-handed people from studies.

“One of our studies from 2009 clearly shows why research into left-handed people is so vital,” says Willems. “According to the textbooks, facial recognition takes place in the right half of the brain. Our research revealed that the same process takes place in both halves of the brain in the case of left-handed people, but with the same final outcome. That is a fundamental difference. And left-handed people might process other important information differently as well. The minimal amount of research into this is, in my view, a missed chance for the neurosciences.”

According to Willems, the same applies to genetic research. Schizophrenic and psychotic patients are more likely to be left-handed. Up until now little has been done with that information to clarify the genetic links with the disorders concerned.

“Databases without left-handed people are not representative for the population and in view of the large number of genetic databases currently being set up, ignoring left-handed people is not wise,” says Willems. In addition to the opinion article in Nature Reviews Neuroscience, Willems and his colleagues at the Max Planck Institute in Nijmegen are setting up the website www.mpi.nl/handedness, where left-handed people are encouraged to participate in research.

The article Call To Scientists: Stop Excluding Left-Handed People From Scientific Studies! appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Patrick Buchanan: Is Tea Party’s Dream An Illusion? – OpEd

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By Patrick J Buchanan

“There is no education in the second kick of a mule,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

With some such thought in mind, Speaker John Boehner strode to the floor of the House to offer a “clean” debt ceiling bill and relied on Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats to pass it. They did.

“Surrender” and “betrayal,” are among the epithets coming the Speaker’s way.

Yet Boehner was holding a losing hand. Had he added a GOP wish-list bill to the debt ceiling, Harry Reid’s Senate would have rejected it. President Obama would have denounced it as putting at risk the full faith and credit of the United States.

Big Media would have piled on. The markets would have been rattled. The Dow would have begun to swoon. Corporate America, cash cow of the Republican Party, would have begun to howl.

A clamor to pass a clean debt ceiling bill or risk a new recession would have arisen. And the House Republicans would have caved, as they finally had to cave on the budget bill last fall.

Rather than play Lord Raglan and lead his cavalry in another Charge of the Light Brigade, Boehner chose to withdraw to fight another day on another field.

Yet, the Tea Party has a right to feel cheated.

When does the Republican Party, put in power by the Tea Party, plan to honor its commitment to halt the growth of the Federal monolith and bring the budget back into balance? Is there is any hope things will be different, should the Tea Party help produce a GOP Senate in 2014?

If the Tea Party is in some despair, is it not understandable?

For while there are countless proposals and plans to cut back on federal spending, from Simpson-Bowles on, it is impossible today to see in either party the political will to do the surgery.

Consider what would be needed to roll back Big Government.

First, the major entitlement programs Medicare and Social Security would have to be peeled back. But any effort to raise the age of eligibility, or reduce the benefits, or trim cost-of-living adjustments, would meet with ferocious resistance, led by the AARP.

Indeed, many Tea Party members are themselves among those enjoying, or about to enjoy, the benefits of these programs. Would they back cuts in either one? Democrats say these programs must be expanded, and they will resist any cuts as fiercely as the Republicans would resist any increase in payroll or income taxes.

Social Security and Medicare recipients number in the scores of millions. Four million Baby Boomers reach eligibility every year now. That is more then 10,000 every day. Is any party, even a GOP that controls the White House and Congress, going to take on this army?

Consider that other entitlement, Medicaid.

Thanks to Obamacare, the number of beneficiaries of Medicaid is soaring. And even should the GOP capture the Senate in 2016, a Democratic minority would filibuster to death any bill to cut Medicaid.

As for interest on the debt, another major element in the budget, it has only one way to go, up. For the Fed freeze that has held interest rates near zero for five years must some day end.

Defense is the other big item in the budget. But while the wind-down of our trillion-dollar wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has made cuts possible here, most of these have already been made.

And this week the House voted 326-90 to repeal the small cut in the COLA in pensions for working-age military retirees under 62, which was part of the bipartisan budget deal last fall. Members of Congress panic at any suggestion they are shortchanging the troops.

Yet, since Y2K, the cost of military personnel has doubled, while the number of those on active duty has fallen by 10 percent.

Last December, Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray, in their budget deal, raised discretionary spending in 2014 from the $967 billion it would have been under the sequester to $1.012 trillion.

Invariably, bipartisan budget deals between Capitol Hill liberals and conservatives move the ball further toward the liberals’ goal line.

The farm bill just signed by President Obama contains a tiny cut in a food stamp budget that has exploded during his days in office. But nice new subsidies are in there for peanut and corn growers and producers of maple syrup. Embarrassed at what the House went along with, not one Republican Congressman showed up at the signing ceremony.

Can it be that the Tea Party’s dream of a balanced budget, and of a government that ceases to eat up ever more of the GDP, is simply an act of self-delusion?

Have the beneficiaries of Big Government become so powerful that any champion of the national interest who challenges them in fixed battle invites almost certain defeat?

For today, America appears to be maintaining speed, or even accelerating, toward that cliff that they all warn us is out there.

The article Patrick Buchanan: Is Tea Party’s Dream An Illusion? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

WTI–Brent Spread Projected To Average $11 Per Barrel In 2014 – Analysis

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By EIA

In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projects that the discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to North Sea Brent crude oil, which averaged $11 per barrel (bbl) in 2013, will average $11/bbl and continue at the same level in 2014 and 2015 (Figure 1). This discount reflects the economics of transporting and processing the growing production of light sweet crude oil in U.S. and Canadian refineries. EIA expects this forecast WTI discount to represent the Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) discount to Brent minus a pipeline transport cost of approximately $4/bbl from Cushing, Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast.

The WTI–Brent spread previously represented the cost of moving crude oil on marginal modes of transportation such as railroad and truck from the bottleneck at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub. However, with adequate pipeline capacity to move crude from Cushing and growing tight oil plays to the Gulf Coast, Gulf Coast refiners have completely backed out imports of light sweet crude. As a result, lower crude prices, previously limited to the Midcontinent, have moved to the Gulf Coast, and they are reflected in the discount of LLS to Brent, which developed in the second half of 2013.

Continuing strong production growth combined with recent infrastructure adjustments will result in more light sweet crude flowing to the Gulf Coast in 2014 and 2015. EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production grew by more than 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, and the majority of this growth was light sweet crude oil from the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford tight oil formations. In the latest STEO, EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will grow by an additional 1.0 million bbl/d in 2014 and 0.8 million bbl/d in 2015 to reach an average production of 9.2 million bbl/d. Much of this production growth will be in the Gulf Coast or connected to the Gulf Coast region by pipeline.

There are three main recipients for incremental crude production that arrives on the Gulf Coast:

  • U.S. Gulf Coast refineries
  • Canadian refineries via foreign–flagged vessel for holders of export permits
  • U.S. East Coast refineries via U.S.–flagged vessels

While shipping additional crude to U.S. and Canadian East Coast refineries, which are better suited to run light sweet crude, will provide an outlet for some production growth, most additional production will be processed in Gulf Coast refineries. Minor capacity increases will help accommodate some of this production growth, notably Kinder Morgan’s 100,000-bbl/d condensate splitter in Galena Park, Texas, 50,000 bbl/d of which is scheduled to start up this quarter and the rest in 2015. However, much of the increased production will replace imports of medium and heavy crude, lightening the crude slate of Gulf Coast refiners. The ability to reduce imports further, especially along the Gulf Coast, to offset the expected growth in U.S. supply over the next two years could be limited by refinery partnerships and long-term supply contracts.

With more crude expected to move to the East Coast, and with Gulf Coast refineries expected to increase processing of light sweet crude, the discount of WTI to Brent will reflect the economics of transporting and processing the growing production of light sweet crude oil in U.S. and Canadian refineries. The forecast WTI discounts should continue to encourage rail shipments of light sweet crude from the Bakken formation. Increased volumes of North American crude oil are already moving to refineries in PADD 1 and eastern Canada. Favorable crude oil transportation economics could provide incentive to continue expanding rail capacity to the U.S. East and West coasts and to expand exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Canada. These expansions would provide additional outlets for rising U.S. and western Canadian crude oil production. However, even with additional volumes of domestically produced crude oil moving to the East and West coasts, light sweet crude oil supply to the U.S. Gulf Coast will still exceed take-away capacity in the near future.

As a result, larger price discounts for U.S. crude oil production versus alternate world crudes, such as greater WTI and LLS discounts to Brent, may be needed to encourage Gulf Coast refiners to process the increased supplies. Additionally, the price spread between light and heavy crudes in the United States will need to narrow to encourage displacing heavier crudes with increasing volumes of light crude.

Longer term, there are refinery investments to process more light crude and to increase condensate splitter capacity. Some of these upgrades are expected online later this year and into 2015, and they could provide enough capacity to absorb some of the coming supply increase. However, in the short term, WTI’s discount to Brent will likely have to widen from its current levels as refinery crude runs decline during the spring maintenance season.

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices increase

The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline increased two cents to $3.31 per gallon as of February 10, 2014, 30 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices decreased one cent on the East Coast to $3.35 per gallon, while increasing in all other regions of the nation. The Midwest price increased five cents to $3.28 per gallon. On the West Coast the price was $3.52 per gallon, up three cents from last week. The Rocky Mountain price gained a penny to $3.14 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price was $3.09 per gallon, less than a penny more than last week.

The national average diesel fuel price was up three cents to $3.98 per gallon, 13 cents lower than last year at this time. Prices increased in all regions of the nation, with the largest increase on the East Coast, where the price increased five cents to $4.12 per gallon. The Midwest price was $3.97 per gallon, three cents higher than last week, and the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast prices both increased one cent, to $3.87 per gallon and $3.79 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast price was up a fraction of a penny to $4.00 per gallon.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels to end at 27.9 million barrels last week, 24.5 million barrels (46.8%) lower than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and Midwest inventories dropped by 0.6 million barrels. East Coast inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 13.4% of total propane inventories.

Residential propane price continues to decrease, while heating oil price is virtually unchanged

Residential heating oil prices increased by less than 1 cent per gallon to remain at $4.24 per gallon during the period ending February 10, 2014. This is 8 cents per gallon higher than last year’s price at this time. Wholesale heating oil prices increased by less than 1 cent per gallon last week, remaining at $3.44 per gallon.

The average residential propane price decreased by over 13 cents per gallon last week to nearly $3.76 per gallon, almost $1.45 per gallon higher than the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased almost 10 cents per gallon to a price just shy of $2.61 per gallon as of February 10, 2014.

The article WTI–Brent Spread Projected To Average $11 Per Barrel In 2014 – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Cambodia Calibrates Its Foreign Relations – Analysis

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By IDN

By Murray Hiebert and Phuong Nguyen

Cambodia’s foreign relations map has undergone dramatic shifts in the past six months. In the aftermath of Cambodia’s elections in July 2013, Beijing promptly recognized the results and congratulated Prime Minister Hun Sen and his ruling Cambodian People’s Party for their victory. However, as anti-government protests led by the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party grew in the weeks that followed, with protesters condemning the elections as fraudulent and calling on Hun Sen to step down, China has since largely remained silent and kept the prime minister at arm’s length.

At the same time, the Cambodian government in the past few months has moved to consolidate its relations with Vietnam following several years of deteriorating ties between the two neighbors. Phnom Penh made this move despite the anti-Vietnamese sentiment in Cambodia fed by opposition leader Sam Rainsy that has gained traction since the elections.

An ongoing political crisis and China’s apparent hedging on Hun Sen are behind this emerging geostrategic realignment.

Hun Sen is struggling to deal with growing opposition to his rule and grievances from the public on labor rights and governance at a time when Cambodia is at a critical political and economic crossroads. The country is seeking to become more integrated with the rest of Southeast Asia and the world in the years ahead. Cambodia’s youth is increasingly more educated and exposed to democratic norms and the outside world.

Serious challenge

Hun Sen, whose strong-arm tactics largely worked in the past, now faces what is perhaps the most serious challenge to his rule in decades and is seeking outside recognition to boost his domestic legitimacy. The truth is, even if his party manages to win the next elections, Hun Sen must continue to deal with growing demands for greater transparency, better rule of law and more democracy.

China, until recently Cambodia’s most important patron, has not been willing to offer Hun Sen much political backing. While the two governments continue to maintain high-level meetings and exchanges, there has been a shift in Beijing’s policy toward Cambodia.

Shortly after Hun Sen announced he would not step down in the face of opposition-led protests, an article in China’s state-controlled Xinhua in late December (2013) quoted Khmer analysts calling for national referendum on whether to organize new elections. Chinese leaders probably will not give Hun Sen the cold shoulder anytime soon, but they seem to be charting a middle course and slowly moving away from their past policy of wholeheartedly endorsing his government.

The social and political changes taking place in Cambodia have not been lost on Beijing. Chinese leaders could be hedging their bets on Cambodia’s political future to avoid the kind of strategic blunders they made in Myanmar in recent years. Beijing long threw its support to Myanmar’s military regime and was taken unaware by the sweeping reforms President Thein Sein launched in 2011. Chinese leaders did not begin to face up to the new political reality in Myanmar until Thein Sein suspended construction of the multibillion dollar Chinese-backed Myitsone dam.

As part of its new policy, China is engaging different actors in Myanmar’s emerging political scene, from parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann and army chief Min Aung Hlaing to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Chinese leaders who have largely given Thein Sein the cold shoulder are now considering an official invitation for Aung San Suu Kyi to visit China. Neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Keqiang made a stop in Myanmar during their diplomatic blitz across Southeast Asia in 2013. Interestingly, Cambodia was not included in that itinerary either, despite being a staunch ally and a popular investment destination for Chinese businesses.

Vietnam-Cambodia relations blossoming

Meanwhile, relations between Vietnam and Cambodia have blossomed during the past few months. Hanoi has provided Hun Sen with much needed outside recognition and a boost to his legitimacy. In late December, Hun Sen visited Vietnam ahead of the 35th anniversary of the ouster of the Khmer Rouge by Hanoi’s troops, and Vietnamese leaders lavishly congratulated him for his role in rebuilding Cambodia.

Two weeks after Hun Sen’s trip, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung visited Cambodia, where the two leaders co-chaired a bilateral trade and investment conference – the largest since 2009 – and pledged to boost economic ties in banking, finance, agribusiness, tourism and telecommunications. At the end of 2012, Vietnamese businesses had invested around $3 billion in nearly 130 projects in Cambodia, making Vietnam one of the country’s top foreign investors. China, in comparison, invested a total of $9.17 billion in the country between 1994 and 2012.

Hanoi is closely watching the political turmoil in Cambodia, but still jumped at the chance to patch up ties with Phnom Penh following several years of irritation over border demarcation and Cambodia’s siding with China over the South China Sea disputes. In the foreseeable future, Hanoi still has an interest in sustaining regime stability in Cambodia and the ruling party’s grip on power given how overtly anti-Vietnamese Sam Rainsy has shown himself to be. For instance, Rainsy has recently declared that Vietnam is encroaching on Chinese territory in the South China Sea, in the same fashion that he alleges the nation is grabbing Cambodian territory.

Offering Hun Sen political support when he most needed it, as well as strengthening bilateral economic ties, seemed like a logical choice for Vietnamese leaders. Hanoi is also concerned about the increasingly anti-Vietnamese rhetoric among the Cambodian population. Launching the new Cho Ray Phnom Penh Hospital, a joint venture between Vietnam’s Saigon Medical Investment and Cambodia’s Sokimex, was perhaps an effort to soften anti-Vietnamese sentiment through joint cooperation in the health sector.

Beijing’s non-committal stance

But realistically, Hanoi’s support alone is insufficient to assure Cambodia’s and Hun Sen’s autonomy among foreign powers. Beijing’s noncommittal stance in recent months might also have prompted Hun Sen to look for support beyond his traditional patrons. For instance, he shrewdly used Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Cambodia in November 2013 to boost his domestic legitimacy – by asking Abe for advice on electoral reforms – and his position vis-à-vis China.

Hun Sen and Abe issued an unusual statement on bilateral maritime security cooperation, underscoring the need to settle disputes peacefully and according to international law. The two countries agreed to boost military ties, with Japanese experts, including those from Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, expected to provide training to Cambodian military personnel for future United Nations peacekeeping operations. And in stark contrast to what happened at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh in 2011, Cambodia did not object to tabling a discussion on China’s Air Defense Identification Zone over the East China Sea during the Japan-ASEAN summit in Tokyo in December 2013.

Cambodia is evolving quickly, both politically and economically, and it remains to be seen whether Hun Sen can retain power for several more election cycles. Beijing’s new strategic calculus in Cambodia has suddenly left Hun Sen feeling vulnerable, at least for the moment. This has prompted Hun Sen to work to boost his standing among other regional actors, particularly Japan, Vietnam and ASEAN, by offering them his support on issues of contention with China such as territorial disputes in the East and South China seas.

Murray Hiebert is senior fellow and deputy director of the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. Phuong Nguyen is a research associate with the CSIS Sumitro Chair. This article was first published on February 4, 2014 with the headline Cambodian Regime Realigns Its Foreign Relations on Yale Global.

The article Cambodia Calibrates Its Foreign Relations – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Pakistan Kidnaps Drone War Critic – OpEd

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By FPIF

By Medea Benjamin

In October 2012, I was with a CODEPINK delegation in Pakistan meeting families impacted by U.S. drone strikes.

Kareem Khan, a journalist from the tribal area of Waziristan, told us the heartbreaking story of a drone strike that killed his son and brother. Since then, Khan has been seeking justice through the Pakistani courts and organizing other drone strike victims. On February 10, he planned to fly to Europe for meetings with German, Dutch, and British parliamentarians to discuss the negative impact drones are having on Pakistan. But days before his trip, in the early hours of the morning on February 5, he was kidnapped from his home in Rawalpindi by 15-20 men in police uniform and plain clothes. He has not been seen since.

Terrified, Khan’s wife said the men did not disclose their identities and refused to say why her husband was being taken away.

Khan’s tragic story began on December 31, 2009. He had been working as a journalist in the capital, Islamabad, leaving his family back home in Waziristan. On New Year’s Eve, he got an urgent call from his family: their home had just been struck by a U.S. drone, and three people were dead: Kahn’s 18 year-old son Zahinullah, his brother Asif Iqbal, and a visiting stonemason who was working on the village mosque.

The news reports alleged that the target of the strike had been a Taliban commander, Haji Omar, but Khan insisted that Haji Omar was nowhere near the village that night. Khan also told us that the same Taliban commander had been reported dead several times by the media. “How many times could the same man be killed?” Khan asked.

Khan’s son had just graduated from high school, and his brother was a teacher at the local school. Khan’s brother taught his students that education was far more powerful than weapons. The drone strike that killed their teacher taught the students a very different lesson.

Khan was the first family member of a drone victim to take the issue into the Pakistani courts. With the help of human rights lawyer Shahzad Akbar, he sent a legal notice to the American embassy in Islamabad, detailing the wrongful deaths and accusing the CIA of grossly violating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Speaking outside a police station after he had lodged a legal complaint, Khan asked that Jonathan Banks, the CIA station chief in Islamabad, be forbidden from leaving Pakistan until he answered to the charges against him. (While CIA agents’ identities are secret, Banks’ name had been revealed in the local press.) While the accusation against Banks made headlines in Pakistan, the CIA chief was allowed to flee the country. But in the ensuing months, Khan organized other families of victims and jointly, they have been pressing their cases in several lawsuits now pending in Pakistani courts.

Khan has obviously been an embarrassment to the U.S. government, which is responsible for the drone strikes. And it has put the Pakistani government in an uncomfortable position. On the one hand the Pakistani government—from Prime Minister Zardari to the legislature—has come out publicly against the U.S. use of drones. But Pakistan is heavily dependent on U.S. aid, and the government has been unwilling to bring charges against the United States in international bodies or send an irrefutable rebuke by shooting down a U.S. drone.

Given the political backroom deals that have obviously been going on between the United States and Pakistan, Khan took great risks by speaking out.  “Kareem Khan is not only a victim, but an important voice for all other civilians killed and injured by U.S. drone strikes,” said Khan’s lawyer Shahzad Akbar, who is also Director of the Foundation for Fundamental Rights. “Why are Pakistani officials so scared of Kareem and his work that they felt the need to abduct him in an effort to silence his efforts?”

How tragically ironic that someone whose loved ones have been killed by a CIA drone program condemned by the Pakistani government has now been abducted by that very government. Pakistanis we have talked to say this could only happen on orders from the United States, which did not want Khan speaking out in Europe against U.S. policy.

“We are extremely worried about Kareem Khan, a gentle, warm man who opened up his heart to us when we were in Pakistan,” said Alli McCracken, who was on the CODEPINK delegation. “We have launched a campaign to free him, flooding the Pakistani embassy and State Department with calls.” You can add your voice to the call to free Kareem Kahn by signing this petition, which will be hand-delivered to Pakistani and U.S. government officials.

Medea Benjamin is cofounder of www.codepink.org and author of Drone Warfare: Killing by Remote Control

The article Pakistan Kidnaps Drone War Critic – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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