By Jim Garamone

U.S. defense officials are concerned about a buildup of Russian troops along that country’s border with Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said this week.

“We believe there are now between 10,000 and 12,000 Russian troops on the border,” Warren told reporters. “We also have reason to believe that the Russians are continuing to support the separatist movement in Ukraine.”

The size of the Russian presence in the region means it’s capable of conducting operations on either side of the border, he added. “I can’t speak for what they intend to do. Certainly, it is intimidating.”

A few weeks ago, about 1,000 Russian soldiers were along the border. Earlier this year, tens of thousands of Russian troops were deployed in the area, Warren said.

The United States wants the Russians to stop what it terms provocative behavior and “execute actions that are in line with their words,” Warren said. Russian officials have said they want peace and stability in Ukraine and de-escalation of the situation there, but their actions work counter to those goals, he noted.

U.S. officials believe that some weaponry — “possibly some heavy weapons” are flowing into Ukraine for use by separatists, Warren said. The troops moving to the area are battalion task groups and are combat soldiers.

U.S. and Ukrainian military officials met in June. “Another team is due to head out in the next few weeks to scope out specific defense institution building activities and programs that we may want to pursue,” he added.

The United States has sent body armor, uniforms and foodstuffs to Ukraine, and more aid is on the way. In addition, night-vision and thermal-imaging equipment and medical supplies are expected to arrive in Ukraine soon, Warren said.

The post Russian Military Buildup Near Ukraine Concerns DoD Officials appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A new analysis of data from 1988-2008 has revealed a 40% decrease in the incidence of stroke in Medicare patients 65 years of age and older. This decline is greater than anticipated considering this population’s risk factors for stroke, and applies to both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. Investigators also found death resulting from stroke declined during the same period. Their findings are published in the July issue of The American Journal of Medicine.

Preventable but deadly, stroke is the fourth leading cause of mortality in the United States, with approximately 795,000 strokes occurring each year. Beyond the impact on patients, treatment and after care place high demands on doctors and health care facilities. With an aging population reaching Medicare age, deconstructing and studying stroke statistics are important for understanding the causes underlying this downward trend, benefiting both patients and providers.

“Shedding light on trends in the burden of stroke among Medicare beneficiaries may provide important information for policy purposes, including describing the past and current scope of the condition, assessing the potential effect of stroke prevention interventions on a national level, and identifying areas where resources can be targeted more specifically and effectively,” says lead investigator Margaret C. Fang, MD, MPH, an Associate Professor of Medicine at the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, who also serves as the Medical Director of the UCSF Anticoagulation Clinic.

The study was constructed to analyze stroke cases over the past two decades, not to investigate causation; however, researchers did find evolving patterns in the risk factors associated with strokes. Although the prevalence of diabetes mellitus increased over time, other risk factors, such as cigarette smoking, measured systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol values, decreased.

The decline in stroke rates paralleled increasing use of antihypertensive and statin medications and might explain the reduction in stroke rates. “Antihypertensive medications reduce the risk of stroke by approximately 32% and statins by approximately 21%. Stroke rates seem to decrease most sharply after year 1998, approximately when statin use became more prevalent,” explains Dr. Fang. “If true, then this illustrates how medical interventions have resulted in significant improvements in health on a population level.”

Investigators analyzed occurrence data from a sample of Medicare patients diagnosed as having suffered a stroke. Risk factors such as high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking status, and high lipid levels were gathered from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey was used to determine medication use.

The team identified more than one million stroke events from 1988 to 2008, of which 87.3% were ischemic and 12.7% hemorrhagic strokes. The analysis showed a reduction in ischemic strokes from 927 per 100,000 in 1988 to just 545 per 100,000 in 2008. Hemorrhagic strokes decreased from 112 per 100,000 to 94 per 100,000 over the same time period, primarily among men.

Data indicated that stroke mortality also declined. The risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rate for ischemic strokes fell from 15.9% in 1988 to 12.7% in 2008. For hemorrhagic stroke, the mortality rates declined slightly from 44.7% in 1988 to 39.3% in 2008.

Dr. Fang notes that “Our analysis confirms the continuing and devastating effect of hemorrhagic stroke, but was unable to assess for casual factors influencing mortality rates; relatively few interventions have been shown to reduce stroke-related mortality. Timely administration of intravenous thrombolytics is associated with more favorable outcomes from ischemic stroke, but has not been shown to have significant effects on mortality. In addition, the rate of thrombolytic administration continues to be low in the United States.”

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Discussing end-of-life choices with family members in a way that pays attention to how they perceive themselves and maintains your relationship with them may be more important than actually reaching decisions, according to a study recently published in Communication Monographs, a journal of the National Communication Association.

The reason is that reassuring people about shared commitment to a relationship increases their feelings of satisfaction about the conversation. And that satisfaction may have a positive impact on the health choices that are made later, in part because the person’s positive emotional response to the conversation helps them better process and remember information.

“The way an end-of-life discussion is negotiated has the potential to strengthen or undermine relationships,” says Allison M. Scott, Assistant Professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Kentucky and lead author of the study. “Family communication holds a great deal of potential for improving end-of-life health care, but this potential lies in the quality of the discussions.”

At the heart of the new study is the idea that people may have more than one purpose for a conversation, including task, identity, and relational goals. In an end-of-life conversation with a parent, for example, the primary task may be to share information on options, the identity goal may be to preserve the parent’s feeling of independence, and the relational goal may be to maintain a high level of trust.

Achieving an end-of-life conversation’s goals can minimize the hurt feelings and relationship damage that can result from talking about such an emotionally charged topic. When people have positive communication experiences and negative outcomes are avoided, they’re more likely to engage in subsequent conversations about a topic.

“A common refrain among end-of-life researchers and practitioners is that families should ‘be open,’” said John P. Caughlin, Acting Head of the Department of Communication at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and one of the study’s authors. “But our findings demonstrate that having a successful end-of-life discussion is not just about being open, and that some ways of being open are better than others.”

Openness when discussing specific health care options is beneficial, as is working to achieve other conversational goals in addition to simply sharing information. At the same time, being so open that the other person’s feelings are hurt is counter-productive.

The post End-Of-Life Conversations Aren’t Just About Health Care appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Scientists from the University of Southampton have helped to create a new map, which shows the impact climate change could have on the whole planet by the end of the century, if carbon emissions continue to increase.

The Human Dynamics of Climate Change map, launched at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office last night (16 July), was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre with specific contributions from universities, Government and science organisations.

The map shows a range of potential impacts:

• Temperatures on the warmest days of the year rising by 6°C or more across Europe, parts of Asia and part of North America

• An increase in risk of flooding across 70 per cent of Asia

• The number of days of drought going up by more than 20 per cent in parts of South America, Australia and Southern Africa

• Maize yields falling by up to 12 per cent in Central America

• Sea temperatures rising by up to 4°C in some parts of the world

• Millions of people flooded due to sea level rise, particularly in East, Southeast and South Asia

The map illustrates how climate change could affect the global economy as regions connected by trade are affected by changes in crop yield, droughts, flooding and high temperatures. It also shows how many already water-stressed regions of the world could face an increase in the frequency and duration of droughts, at the same time as an increase in demand for water for agriculture and for the consumption of a growing population.

Professor Robert Nicholls and Dr Sally Brown, from Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton, contributed data and research which shows the number of people in coastal regions around the world that could potentially be flooded in the future as sea levels rise.

Dr Brown says: “We know that rising sea levels are already having profound impacts in many parts of the world. We hope that this tool will help scientists, policy makers and governments better understand the threat that climate change poses to our collective future prosperity and security and what actions are needed.”

Foreign Office Minister, Mark Simmonds said: “This map shows how the impacts of climate change on one part of the world will affect countries in other parts of the world, particularly through the global trade in food. This reinforces the point that climate change is a global problem: no country is immune, and we all need to work together to reduce the risks to our shared prosperity and security.”

Dame Julia Slingo, the Met Office Chief Scientist, said: “We’ve used the latest science to assess how potential changes in our climate will impact people around the world. This map presents that information together for the first time. While we see both positive and negative impacts, the risks vastly outweigh any potential opportunities.”

The launch event included a discussion on climate change led by Sir David King, the Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative on Climate Change and Sir Mark Walport, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser.

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The annual refuelling and maintenance outage on Fortum’s Loviisa nuclear power plant’s Unit 1 begins on Sunday, 20 July, followed by the servicing of Unit 2. Loviisa 1 will undergo a normal refuelling outage and Loviisa 2 an inspection outage that is carried out every four years. The entire outage procedure is estimated to be completed in just over nine weeks.

“In addition to the normal periodic maintenance tasks and refuelling, the most significant work on Loviisa 1 includes replacement of main transformer and generator breaker, inspections and cleaning of two steam generators, and the maintenance of the reactor coolant pumps and the low-pressure turbine in accordance with the maintenance schedule. Moreover, the antimony-free mechanical seals will be changed in three reactor coolant pumps. We will also continue the modernisation of the low-pressure turbine,” says Pertti Salonen, Manager of Loviisa power plant’s Maintenance Unit.

The first antimony-free seals were introduced at the power plant in 2012 after some years of development and testing. Radioactive antimony is a substance normally found in the metal alloy of the mechanical seals of the reactor coolant pumps. During operation, it is released into the primary circuit pipelines and causes approximately half of the radiation dose of the workers at the power plant. Changing the mechanical seals to antimony-free seals is part of the Loviisa power plant’s continuous improvement to lower the collective radiation dose of the personnel.

At Loviisa 2, the most significant tasks besides the normal periodic maintenance and refuelling are the inspections of the reactor and the primary circuit’s steam generators, the leak testing of the containment, the maintenance of two reactor coolant pumps in accordance with the maintenance schedule, the opening and maintenance of the low- and high-pressure housings, the replacement of the main transformer and generator breaker, and the modernisation of primary circuit pressure control. In addition, the mechanical seals on two reactor coolant pumps will be replaced with antimony-free types, after which all of the reactor coolant pumps’ seals at the power plant will be antimony-free.

A total of 930 contractors are involved in the annual outage and the Loviisa power plant’s ongoing modernisation projects. About 80 per cent of the workers are of Finnish origin. The international workforce comes from Russia, Croatia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, the USA and the Czech Republic. There are approximately 500 Fortum employees and some 100 permanent contractors working at the Loviisa power plant.

The post Annual Outage To Begin At Fortum’s Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Michael Lombardi

I’ve been writing in these pages for most of 2014 on how the stock market has become one huge bubble. On my short list:

The economy is weak. The U.S. experienced negative growth in the first quarter of 2014. If the same thing happens in the second quarter (we’ll soon know), we will be in a recession again. Revenue growth at big companies is almost non-existent.

Insiders at public companies are selling stocks (in the companies they work for) at a record pace.

The amount of money investors have borrowed to buy stocks is at a record high (a negative for the stock market).

The VIX “Fear” index, which measures the amount of fear investors have about stocks declining, is near a record low (another negative for the stock market).

Bullishness among stock advisors, as measured by Investors Intelligence, is near a record high (again, a negative for the stock market).

The Federal Reserve has issued its economic outlook, and it says interest rates will be much higher at the end of 2015 than they are today and that they will continue moving upward in 2016.

The Federal Reserve has said it will be out of the money printing business by the end of this year. (Who will buy all those T-bills the U.S. government has to issue to keep in business?)

And yesterday, in an unprecedented statement, Janet Yellen, during her usual semi-annul testimony to Congress, said the valuations of tech stocks are “high relative to historical norms.”

How many warnings can you give investors?

Well, the warnings don’t seem to matter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has plowed through the 17,000 level, and the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones, is up three percent this year.

Dear reader, the higher the stock market goes, the bigger its fall from grace will be. Don’t get suckered into the hype the mainstream media feeds us. Focus on the proven, long-term historical market valuation tools I have listed above and have patience as the case for a crash from these stock market levels builds. And remember: time is foe to the speculator, friend to the investor.

This article How Many Warnings Can You Give? was originally posted at Profit Confidential

The post How Many Warnings Can You Give? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Engineers have taken a crucial step in preparing to test parts of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket that will send humans to new destinations in the solar system. They installed on Thursday an RS-25 engine on the A-1 Test Stand at the agency’s Stennis Space Center near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.

The Stennis team will perform developmental and flight certification testing of the RS-25 engine, a modified version of the space shuttle main engine that powered missions into space from 1981 to 2011. The SLS’s core stage will be powered by a configuration of four RS-25 engines, like the one recently installed on the A-1 stand.

“This test series is a major milestone because it will be our first opportunity to operate the engine with a new controller and to test propellant inlet conditions for SLS that are different than the space shuttle,” said Steve Wofford, SLS Liquid Engines Element manager. “This testing will confirm the RS-25 will be successful at powering SLS.”

Early tests on the engine will collect data on the performance of its new advanced engine controller and other modifications. The controller regulates valves that direct the flow of propellant to the engine, which determines the amount of thrust generated during an engine test, known as a hotfire test. In flight, propellant flow and engine thrust determine the speed and trajectory of a spacecraft. The controller also regulates the engine startup sequence, which is especially important on an engine as sophisticated as the RS-25. Likewise, the controller determines the engine shutdown sequence, ensuring it will proceed properly under both normal and emergency conditions.

“Installation of RS-25 engine No. 0525 signals the launch of another major rocket engine test project for human space exploration on the A-1 Test Stand,” said Gary Benton, RS-25 rocket engine test project manager at Stennis.

The SLS is designed to carry astronauts in NASA’s Orion spacecraft deeper into space than ever before, to destinations including an asteroid and Mars. NASA is using existing and in-development hardware and infrastructure, including the RS-25 engine, to the maximum extent possible to enable NASA to begin deep space missions sooner.

Testing of engine No. 0525 begins in the coming weeks on a test stand originally built in the 1960s for Apollo-era engines that helped launch the lunar missions. The stand has since been used for several major testing projects, and NASA spent almost a year modifying the structure to accommodate the RS-25 engine.

The SLS Program is managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. Aerojet Rocketdyne of Sacramento, California, is on contract with NASA to adapt the RS-25 engines for SLS missions.

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Less than every fourth child in Europe have enough fruit and vegetables included in their daily diet, a study by Swedish researchers at Örebro University and Karolinska Institutet shows. The findings are a part of an EU-funded study and are presented in Public Health Nutrition today.

It is time to act, says Agneta Yngve, professor of culinary arts and meal science at Örebro University who together with Christel Lynch, Bettina Ehrenblad and Eric Poortvliet from Karolinska Institutet, and researchers from nine other European countries have examined how much fruit and vegetables school children eat.

Including a lot of fruit and vegetables in your diet reduces the risk of heart disease, stroke, diabetes and even some forms of cancer. The World Health Organisation, WHO, recommends a daily intake of at least 400 grams of fruit and vegetables.

“Not even half of the children in this study eat fruit every day. The picture is a little bit brighter when it comes to vegetables. 55 per cent add vegetables to their diet on a daily basis,” says Agneta Yngve.

On average, school children in this European study eat between 220-345 grams of fruit and vegetables a day. Norway and Bulgaria have the highest average daily intake with 345 grams and 320 grams respectively. In Sweden, children consume 291 grams a day. Finland comes in at the bottom of the table with 220 grams. Sweden stands out as the country where school children eat the most vegetables.

“We believe this is down to Swedish school lunches. A good selection of salads and vegetables are normally offered. At the same time, Swedish children are far from getting enough vegetables. An average of 141 grams per day simply is not sufficient. All children should eat at least 200 grams of vegetables in order to live up to the WHO’s recommendations.”

In all European countries, including Sweden, children do however eat more fruit than vegetables. Researchers believe that this is due to fruit being more readily available, for instance as a snack, and to children finding fruit more tasty. The most fruit is consumed by children in Norway, followed by Bulgaria and Greece.

“In addition to the differences between countries, we have also found that girls generally eat more fruit and veg than boys,” Agneta Yngve continues.

This cross-sectional study is the first part of the Pro Greens intervention study. Information material has been prepared for schools in cooperation with the Swedish supermarket chain Ica with the help of which children all across Europe can learn how to become friends with their bodies. How much fruit and veg should I eat and how do I best go about it?

“The next step for us is to evaluate whether this intervention has had the desired effect,” says Agneta Yngve.

The countries taking part in the study are Bulgaria, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia and Sweden. Professor Agneta Yngve is coordinating the study and the project manager is nutritionist Christel Lynch.

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(Civil.Ge) — Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili said in a written statement that he is “shocked and saddened” by Malaysian airliner “disaster” in which flight MH17 with 295 people on board crashed in eastern Ukraine, the scene of fighting between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government forces.

“A joint international effort has to establish what has happened,” reads the Georgian PM’s statement. “We will wait for the results. Our thoughts and prayers are now with the families of those who have died.”

Ukrainian authorities have accused pro-Russian separatists of downing the passenger plane; President Petro Poroshenko said it was a “terrorist act.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said, according to Kremlin: “This tragedy would not have occurred if there were peace in that country, or in any case, if hostilities had not resumed in southeast Ukraine. And certainly, the state over whose territory it occurred is responsible for this terrible tragedy.”

The post Georgian PM ‘Shocked’ By Malaysian Plane Crash In Ukraine appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Only 22 percent Americans know someone who is Hindu, according to a Pew Research Center survey published on July 17.

This number is lowest than any other religion/denomination surveyed. Catholics rank highest with 87 percent, followed by evangelical Christians, Jews, Atheists, Mormons, Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus.

Americans express warmest and more positive feelings towards Jews (average rating 63); followed by Catholics, evangelical Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, etc., the survey adds.

Reacting to this survey findings, Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada (USA) today, urged American Hindus to make outreach efforts towards non-Hindu communities, do charity, invite others to visit Hindu temples/ashrams, offer help to neighbors, be good role models, act for the benefit of all, volunteer, try to stay pure and exhibit warmth and love towards fellow Americans.

Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, pointed out that ancient Hindu scripture Bhagavad-Gita (Song of the Lord) urged us to act selflessly without any thought of personal profit.

Rajan Zed suggested to each American Hindu to take a vow of undertaking at least one charitable project during this year for less fortunate members of the community. Quoting scriptures, Zed stressed that charity was a duty, which should be undertaken with sympathy and modesty.

Headquartered in Washington DC, “Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world”. Alan Murray is President.

Hinduism has about one billion adherents and moksh (liberation) is its ultimate goal. There are about three million Hindus in USA.

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On July 17, 2014 the madness of three-month-long Ukrainian military conflict in the East has brought the first shocking international consequence.  At 3.20PM GMT the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777-200 jet flight #MH-17 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala-Lumpur disappeared inside the Ukrainian airspace right above the area of intense military combat in Donetsk region and crushed near Grabovo village, around 60 km to the east from Donetsk. All 285 passengers and 15 crew members have reportedly died.

According to data available the airliner “was moving at the altitude of 10,600 meters on the 350th flight level”. This flight level was opened for international transit flights, despite since July 8, 2014 the Ukrainian aviation authorities “did not recommend” international transit flights in the area below 302th level i.e. 9600 meters due to the “anti-terrorist operation” unleashed in the area involving Ukrainian pursuit aviation and air-defense capabilities in action. So formally the Malaysian company complied with the ruling of Ukrainian civil aviation authority although the security risk for the flight was evident.

The area of the catastrophe is indeed the epicentre of the ongoing fierce fighting between regular Ukrainian army units and rebellious armed militias of Novorossia opposing anti-constitutional February coup d’etat in Kiev. An informed source monitoring operational situation in the area has revealed earlier on Wednesday that a battery of Buk antiaircraft missile systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was deployed near Donetsk. At present, another battery of the same missile systems is being loaded in Kharkiv. The aircraft flying at the altitude of more than 10 thousand meters might be hit only with weapons like S-300 or Buk. The militias don’t have such weapons, and cannot afford them as it was acknowledged even by the Ukrainian Defense minister Valery Galetey in a statement on another issue two days before the Flight MH-17 tragedy:

“…a “powerful weapon” must have been used to down the plane flying at 6,500 meters, an altitude the shoulder-fired missiles used by the separatists can’t reach.”

The Russian military expert Igor Korotchenko argues that the catastrophe in Donetsk was most likely caused by the incompetence and non-professionalism of the Ukrainian operators of the Buk systems during its testing after the battery was deployed in the new location. He said that the Ukrainian antiaircraft unit did not have any kind of proper training for the last 23 years since the collapse of Soviet Union.

What happened today is hardly the first case of “errant shooting” of the Ukrainian military on civilian air targets. On October 4, 2001 the Russian Siberia Airline flight #1812 Tel-Aviv-Novosibirsk carrying 66 passengers and 12 crew members was erroneously hit by a Ukrainian missile over the Black Sea during military exercises, which was eventually admitted by the Ukrainian side. No one on board survived.

So regardless the MH-17 incident was caused by the criminal negligence and incompetence of the Ukrainian military or deliberate (and reckless) Kiev’s provocation to put blame on Russia, the strong international committment to make Kiev immediately halt its punitive actions in Novorossia until all the circumstances of the tragedy are thoroughly investigated is urgently needed.

The post Who Shot Down The Malaysian Jet Over Ukraine? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

A new Pew Research Survey indicates that the US still continues to be perceived in positive light; that a conflict between China and its neighbours over territorial disputes is likely; and that despite contentions over territorial issues, China’s economic standing is considered good even among Asian countries. Asia thus presents interesting pointers about the attitude towards the US and China amidst efforts to find a balance between strategic and economic compulsions.

In global terms, across 43 of the 44 countries surveyed, a median of 65% have maintained a favourable outlook about the US and a median of 56% hold confidence in Obama to take the right step in international affairs. Obama’s standing, while still good, has come down from 2008/2009. Significant declines, owing to Obama’s overseas surveillance, happened in Germany, with the ratings coming down from 88% to 71% and in Brazil, bringing down the points from 69% in 2013 to 52%.

Coming to Asia, one of the striking set of numbers relate to the rising Chinese power quotient and how that has the potential to translate into conflicts, particularly with the neighbours with whom China has border and territorial disputes with. It should be noted that most of the numbers from the survey have historical roots – past animosities and territorial disputes have had a determining say in how they perceive each other. Seven in ten interviewed in the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and India is concerned about the Chinese rising might. Interestingly, 62% of the Chinese themselves have similar concerns about the impact of a conflict.

Expectedly, on the likeability factor, China remains at a low in Japan at 7% and this is mutual given that only 8% Chinese like the Japanese. However, if one were to look at the general approach towards China, it is quite favourable. This is mostly due to the economic strengths of China that would accrue positive spin-offs for the regional and global economy at large. However, even on the question of economy, there is a majority still that see the US as the top economy – 55% in Asia, followed by 49% in Europe and 48% in Africa.

In general terms, China’s favourability quotient has remained at the highest in Pakistan at 78% followed by Bangladesh at 77%. China has also done well in Latin America despite the fact that the ratings have come down in Brazil and Argentina (-21 and -14 points respectively). Africa also seems to be cozying up to the Chinese. However, South Africa is split with 45% favouring and 40% having unfavourable views. China’s image, however, continues to get hit on account of its human rights records.

As far as the threat perception in the region is concerned, China is not looked upon favourably among the Vietnamese (74%), Japanese (68%) and Filipinos (58%), and the South Koreans (36%) remain most concerned about North Korea. The threat perception among Asian countries is also interesting because Pakistan at 38%, Chinese at 36%, Malaysians at 26%, and Indonesians at 25% cite Washington as the biggest threat. However, Indonesia sees the US as the greatest threat and ally.

Japan has had good favourability among Asian countries, except for Northeast Asia, which are again rooted in historical contexts. Japan has remained highly favourable among Thais at 81% and Filipinos 80%. A good number of respondents also have responded positively to the Japanese leadership’s ability to handle regional affairs responsibly. Abe’s ability to handle international affairs well is most appreciated in Vietnam (65%), followed by Malaysians (57%), Bangladesh (56%), Filipinos (55%), and Thais (53%). Most Indians and South Asian in general, surprisingly, did not have an opinion on Abe. This is because the Japanese influence on the economies of most countries in Asia has been quite high through the Japanese Overseas Development Aid (ODA).

People were also asked about the Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ability to handle global affairs responsibly, and in the Asian context, South Koreans gave the highest points at 57%, followed by Bangladesh at 56%, Malaysia at 54%, and Thailand at 54%. Xi fares quite poor in Japan at 6% and India at 13%. Among the Americans, only 28% recorded confidence in Xi. Despite the hopes on and expectations from a new leadership, the Chinese aggressive posturing has gone to shape this perception about Xi. This is evident in the Japanese lack of confidence at 87%.

In its neighbourhood, India’s favourability has recorded highest among Bangladeshis at 70%, followed by Vietnamese at 67%, Japan at 63%, and Indonesia at 62%. India figures most unfavourably with Pakistan at 13%.

What do these figures mean? The Pew Survey has not thrown any surprises. These figures have only confirmed the already well-known story lines about the US, China, Japan and India. The figures also represent the dilemma present in most world capitals – while there is wariness about the overall rising of Chinese power quotient, countries also see gains in interacting with them in economic terms. One of the questions in the survey as to whether China will surpass the US a superpower in the future is absurd because the obvious answer is yes. China will overtake at some stage but this question without a timeframe is meaningless.

(Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. She served at the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India from 2003 to 2007.)

The post China’s Favourability Highest In Pakistan, Bangladesh – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By C. Raja Mohan

The idea of an overland pipeline bringing hydrocarbons from Russia to India has been around for a while. Mooted under UPA rule, the proposal is gaining some traction with the NDA government. New Delhi and Moscow are looking for some big new projects to boost their stagnant commercial ties. Annual bilateral trade now hovers below a paltry $15 billion. Given the massive complementarities in the energy sector, the two sides rightly focus on making this the centrepiece of a stronger economic partnership in future.
The Great Game Folio

Talks on Russian atomic reactor exports are making slow progress amidst the continuing differences over the application of India’s nuclear liability act. As India’s demand for oil and natural gas grows, the hydrocarbon sector presents itself as a major strategic opportunity. India already has $5bn invested in the Russian petroleum sector. India also imports crude oil worth nearly $200 million every year.

India would like to import a lot more and the idea of building a direct pipeline from Russia, therefore, has become an object of political interest in Delhi and Moscow. Further impetus for the project has come from a recent Russian deal with China to export natural gas worth $400bn over a 30-year period via a new pipeline. The idea is generating some excitement and is expected to figure in the bilateral talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the margins of the BRICS summit in Brazil.

Luckless India

It is easy drawing pipeline routes on the map. India knows that building them on the ground is not. For none of the pipeline projects that India has debated in the last two decades has taken off for reasons of costs, geopolitical and financial. There have been many proposals to build underwater pipelines from the Gulf to India; but cost considerations have put them on hold. Overland pipeline projects have been grounded mainly for geopolitical reasons. The plan to build the

Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline has run into strong opposition from the United States, which remains opposed to any projects involving Tehran. India, Pakistan and Afghanistan have spent much time negotiating the TAPI pipeline that would have brought natural gas from Turkmenistan into the subcontinent. Given the security problems in the Af-Pak region, it has been hard selling the project to international bankers.

There was a plan to build a natural gas pipeline between Myanmar and India through Bangladesh. But the inability of Delhi and Dhaka to act fast saw Myanmar deciding to sell the gas to China. Beijing moved rapidly to build a twin pipeline system from the Bay of Bengal coast to the Yunnan province in southwestern China, just north of Myanmar.

Any Russian pipeline from Russia to India will have three possible routes into India. One is via Iran and Pakistan; another must traverse Afghanistan and Pakistan; and the third must come through China. The option of bringing them through Pakistan will face many of the same problems as the IPI and TAPI pipelines. The China option involves bringing the pipeline across the Great Himalayas and through the regions of Jammu and Kashmir that are part of the territorial dispute between Delhi and Beijing.

Lahore beckons

In a paradox, the only pipeline that could get off the ground in the near term is the one that would run out of India rather than into it. Delhi has been discussing with Islamabad for some time now plans to build a pipeline to the Punjab border to export liquefied natural gas to Pakistan.

Given the shortage of LNG infrastructure in Pakistan, it makes sense for Islamabad to import natural gas into Lahore from across the Radcliffe Line. In the budget presented to the Lok Sabha last week, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley exempted from customs duty the LNG that will be imported into India and then exported to Pakistan. Although this decision will cut the import costs for Islamabad, the Nawaz Sharif government may not have the freedom to act in Pakistan’s enlightened economic self-interest.

From the Indian perspective, though, the Modi government would be wise to focus on connecting India’s hydrocarbon grids with those of the immediate neighbours. Given its vast coastline, Delhi should devote its attention for now to importing hydrocarbons by sea, investing in equity oil in Russia and other energy-rich countries, and concluding swap arrangements rather than grandiose transregional pipelines.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi and a contributing editor for ’The Indian Express’)

Courtesy : The Indian Express, July 16, 2014

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By Igor Dirgantara

The Indonesian Presidential general election has been underway on July 9th. There were two pairs of strong candidates for Presidential and Vice-Presidential position: Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa (Prabowo-Hatta) and Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla (Jokowi-JK).

There will be numerous challenges for the elected pair, and one of the more important challenge will be regarding Indonesia’s future foreign politics policy. This article will try to foresee the type of leadership of each couple and also their foreign politics performance.

The official results of legislative elections on 9 April 2014 General Election Commission put PDIP at the ranked first with 23,681,471 votes (18.95%), followed by Golkar: 18,432,312 (14.75%), Gerindra: 14,760,371 (11 , 81%), Democrats: 12,728,913 (10.19%), PKB: 11,298,957 (9.04%), PAN: 9,481,621 (7.59%), PKS: 8,480,204 (6.79 %), Nasdem: 8,402,812 (6.72%), PPP: 8,157,488 (6.53%), Hanura: 6,579,498 (5.26%), PBB: 1,825,750 (1:46%), and PKPI: 1,143,094 (0.91%). Bottom two of political parties, namely PBB, and PKPI are declared not qualify parliamentary threshold (3%) and did not get any seats quota in parliament. Since none of the party with the most votes above 20%, as a condition of Presidential thrashhold to be able to carry a pair of candidates for president and vice president themselves, the coalition of political parties is a must. In the presidential system in Indonesia, election of coalition partners is also directed by the vote or seats in parliament (at least 50 percent +1), which is then tied in a mutual political platform.

After the legislative elections there resulted maneuvering the political elite to form a coalition at the presidential election May 9, 2014. Because the public orientation to the above figures of a political party is still a presidential election winning political formula, then the composition selection of the Presidential Candidate – Vice Presidential Candidate is very important to the victory of the candidate pairs. Of the various movements of some leaders of political parties, eventually converging on a two couples of Presidential Candidate – Vice Presidential Candidate for which respectively carried by supporting political parties to compete seizing power in Indonesia from 2014 to 2019. Two strongest pairs are Prabowo-Hatta and Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla. Prabowo-Hatta named their coalition as a Red White coalition carried by Gerindra, PAN, PPP, PKS, Golkar and PBB that total votes are 48.93%, or 292 seats in parliament. While the duo Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla brought by a coalition party of PDI-P, Nasdem, PKB, Hanura, and PKPI with a total of 39.97% of the total votes in 2014 legislative elections, or 207 seats in the House.

After receiving the serial number of the National Election Commission, the duo Prabowo-Hatta (serial number : one), and Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla (serial number : two), two sets of candidates on June 3 at Bidakara Hotel signed an integrity pact for peaceful election in Indonesia later dated July 9, 2014. Peace Election Post-Declaration, each contestant campaigned to all corners of Indonesia to share their vision and mission to the community, followed with national or global issues considered to be of importance and urgency. The question that a distinguish colleague and dear frined of mine prof. Anis Bajrektarevic has recently asked in his luminary work “Europe of Sarajevo 100 years later”, ‘Was history ever on holiday?’ – is nearly answered, at least this time in Indonesia – the 3rd largest democracy in the world.

Two Variant Of Leaders

Borrowing the term of Herbert Feith, there are two types of political leadership in Indonesia, namely “manager type” (administrator) and type “unifying type” (solidarity maker). Leaders with the administrator type are those who have the technical ability to govern the state. This type is generally represented by educated leaders who master a particular field. While the leaders of the solidarity maker types are the ones who are able to approach the masses, influence them, as well as gain wider sympathy and support from community.

If seen from figures of Presidential Candidates: Prabowo and Jokowi, both are the solidarity maker type because of their capacities to make both of them are not only popular among their supporters, but also have a relatively high electability in the public eye. The difference is, that Prabowo as a solidarity maker figure has high performance characteristics, while Jokowi is more low performance. High performance of Prabowo is manifested in the figure of confident, assertive and bold, while the existing low performance of Jokowi lies in its simplicity aura everyday.

Meanwhile, Vice Presidential Candidate of Hatta Rajasa and Jusuf Kalla, both equally can be characterized as figures considered expert in managing government (administrator) for some experiences as bureaucrats and state officials. The difference, Hatta Rajasa is more low profile, while Jusuf Kalla is quite a high profile in his performance.

Of both pairs have benefits and deficiencies of each. But the leader of solidarity maker type with high performance (Prabowo) could further demonstrate his capabilities as a leader because he had a better motion and political communication, including in attracting public support. While Jokowi looks less good for political communication. The high imaging seems too strong to be on his shoulder. Signaled himself as the party officer and Doll Presidential Candidate is a heavy burden amid the Presidential Candidates and their popularities. Path “on leave” as the governor also indicated that Jokowi judged not to confident in contestation to face Presidential Election 2014. Currently, campaigned as a Presidential Candidate, executing tasks of Jakarta Governor are undertaken by the deputy governor, Basuki Tjahya Purnama (Ahok). It means, if Jokowi lost the battle for the number one seat in Indonesia later, he could take back his position as Jakarta Governor.

The candidate for Vice President has the low profile administrator type (Hatta Rajasa) seeming to be able to work together in government. This type is similar to the figure of Indonesian vice president, Boediono, now. Not much to say, experienced, courteous, and competent. Jusuf Kalla also balanced. Jusuf Kalla has plenty of experiences in the government bureaucracy. The difference, Hatta Rajassa is the General Chairman of the Party (PAN), moreover Jusuf Kalla is the former coriander of the Golkar Party which also rely on the popularity as Jokowi. The problem is also that Vice Presidential Candidate, Jusuf Kalla (72 years) is much older than Jokowi (52 years) as a candidate for president. The Second Symptom Captain in one vessel can not be avoided. Two captains are not among Jokowi with Jusuf Kalla, but also between Megawati and Jusuf Kalla later.

Foreign Politics Performance

During the campaign period ahead of voting until July 9, 2014, the vision-mission of both pairs are louder presented to the public, ranging from a matter of economics, education, health, environment, food, energy, law enforcement, until about fighting corruption.

Which did not escape that should be of concern is how the performance of Indonesian foreign politics of the two couple of candidates later. It’s no secret if the issues of foreign politics is often a secondary priority compared to national issues. But the fact that a peaceful election in Indonesia should be able to be a major capital and stimulus to improve active role in regional and global arena, as mandated by the opening of Constitution 1945 paragraph 4 to participate in creating a world order.

Indonesian Foreign Politics Challenges

In the short and medium term, foreign politics still faces two strategic issues. The first is the traditional security challenges, such as separatism and border disputes. Separatist Action of Free Papua Movement (OPM), or the work of Malaysian who do not appreciate status quo territory, at Camar Bulan and Tanjung Datu in West Kalimantan border needs to be addressed explicitly by the new Indonesian leader. The second is non-traditional strategic issues, as transnational crime such as terrorism, money laundering, climate change, maritime security and others. Crimes at sea such as illegal fishing, illegal logging, illegal mining, human trafficking, drug trafficking passing Indonesia sea channel continued. Moreover, Indonesia is directly adjacent to the 10 countries in the sea and only two countries on the land.

In the context of maritime security, Indonesia needs to be a leadership pioneer in ASEAN to be bold against China on issue in South China Sea, especially if China enters the water territory of Natuna as part of its claim. Indonesian shall enforce Exclusive Economic Zone and freedom of navigation in accordance with norms of international laws. Therefore, modernizing Indonesia military is a must.

Performance of Presidential Candidate – Vice Presidential Candidate

As has been described above by the author, figures of Presidential Candidates Prabowo and Jokowi has solidarity maker type. The difference is the leadership style off Prabowo Subianto having characteristics of high performance, while Jokowi is more low performance. Meanwhile, Vice Presidential Candidate of Hatta Rajasa and Jusuf Kalla, both equally can be characterized as figures considered expert in managing government (administrator) for some experiences as bureaucrats and state officials. However, Hatta Rajasa is more low profile at work, while Jusuf Kalla has high profile type.

At glance there are similarities if you look at the vision-mission of foreign relations between Prabowo-Hatta and Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla. Both pairs equally lays self-reliance principle of Indonesian people in facing the global challenges ahead. Prabowo-Hatta and Jusuf Kalla Jokowi Visions in maritime sector both want to build ports. Each of the Presidential candidate pairings equally want contract re-negotiation between the Indonesian Government with the foreign companies that have been operating in Indonesia for quite some time, who have a number of issues that deemed harmful to the interest of the Indonesian people, for example Freeport in Papua and Newmont in West Nusa Tenggara. National needs and interests are articulated through foreign politics of both pairs. But masculine characteristics in the implementation of the Indonesian foreign politics from Prabowo-Hatta are more pronounced for protecting the nation, play an active role and confident in facing the global arena (Outward Looking). The hope of Indonesian nationals are more respected by other countries, inside or outside the regions. Prabowo-Hatta is considered to have the competence to anticipate issues and challenges of traditional security. Prabowo-Hatta International slogans about ‘Revival Indonesian’ becoming Asian Tiger is a high performance leadership style in Indonesian foreign politics.

While the more feminine performance of Indonesia’s foreign politics looks of the duo Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla. Concentration of Indonesia’s foreign relations will be more focused inward looking. Visions-Missions of Jokowi-Kalla are more based on the national interest and the desire to strengthen the identity of Indonesia as a maritime nation. The idea is to save Indonesia’s marine wealth that will be done by building the fish processing industries, as well as improving transportation links for large ships at strategic locations. The idea of the need for the Indonesian people to do ‘mental revolution’ as a guide to the ‘Wonderful Indonesia’ is the slogan of the foreign politics implementation of a low-performance-high-profile.

In Conclusion

Visions and missions from both pairs of Presidential Candidate – Vice Presidential Candidate are in fact complement each other and fill the two polugri major issues mentioned above. As head of state and head of government, the elected president later will have to have a vital role and influence on the implementation direction of the foreign politics that strived for the prosperity of the Indonesian people, keep maintaining integrity of the Republic, as well as a commitment to be part of an international collaboration in creating world peace. In 2015, Indonesia will face the ASEAN Community. Indonesia needs to show the attitude of ‘do not come home’ in agreements towards ASEAN economic society later. When viewed from its history, Indonesian foreign politics are closely related to the issue of its national pride, position, and role in the international world. The fact that a peaceful election in Indonesia should be a major capital and stimulus to improve the active role in regional and global arena, as mandated by opening of the Constitution 1945 paragraph 4 to participate in creating a world order, as well as to resolve issues and security challenges

About Author :
Igor Dirgantara is senior researcher and lecturer Lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Politics, University of Jayabaya, Indonesia.

References :
Herbert Feith, The Decline of Constitutional Democracy in Indonesia, Jakarta, Equinox Publishing, 2007.

Rebecca Grant & Kathleen Newland, Gender and International Relations, Buckingham, Open University Press, 1991.

Prabowo Subianto, et. all, Membangun Kembali Indonesia Raya, Jakarta, Institute Garuda Nusantara, 2009.

Anis H. Bajrektarevic, From WWI to www. – Was history ever on Holiday?, Addleton Academic Publishers/GHIR, New York

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sideviews/article/on-the-indonesias-election-2014-igor-dirgantara

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/09/18/prabowo-could-be-indonesia-s-lee-kuan-yew.html

http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/voting-trends-in-upcoming-indonesian-elections-4936/

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/05/12/jokowi-wants-start-mental-revolution.html

http://www.tnp.no/norway/global/4358-mood-wisdom-and-passions-of-middle-class-in-upcoming-indonesian-election

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/race-strengthen-foreign-ties/

http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/93655/observer-raises-suspicion-over-jokowi-blake-meeting

http://www.teraspos.com/en/read/2014/03/15/84284/jokowi-breaks-his-campaign-promise-for-his-presidential-candidacy

http://www.thebalitimes.com/2014/04/14/public-favors-presidential-candidates-with-military-background/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=public-favors-presidential-candidates-with-military-background

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Don’t tag Edward Snowden as someone he does not want to be; for he is neither a hero, nor a traitor. He is, or should be, a proud citizen of an evolving hopeful world who has earned such citizenship not by right of birth, ethnic background or bloodlines, or by loyalty oath, but by a selfless personal contribution to the building of a positive, more humane world… where privacy and individual freedoms take precedence over the sad spectacle we are becoming in the United States: an electorate-collective of mindless consumerists, a Borg-like serving a warmongering, corporate power-elite.

NSA-leaker, whistleblower… appellatives galore! American jingo-patriots and other self-pronounced devotees of the empire pound on this physically-fragile young man whose idealism is simplistic and yet profound, someone who sums up his actions in a dignified phrase: “I don’t want to live in a society that does these sort[s] of things … I do not want to live in a world where everything I do and say is recorded. That is not something I am willing to support or live under.”

Amen to that! Many of us envy the opportunity that Snowden has had in serving not just the interests of the American citizenry, but the interests of those wishing to live in a more humane and free world.

We cannot help but be pejorative, openly and merciless, when referring to a government that allows us to roam free in captivity… so long as we can cause little or no damage to the corporate-martial state wearing a democratic mask over an ugly, corrupt fascist face. And that is the reality, black and white, in front of us being presented as treasonous by the neocon crowd or, alternatively, as condescendingly “controversial” by much of the media trying to hold on to a few ounces of dignity which they feel they still have left.

Although whistleblowing has been part of the human condition from time immemorial, some of us have been privileged to witness during the past half century very significant, history-changing whistleblowing of crimes committed by governments, institutions, corporations, and individuals against the health (physical, mental and emotional) and wellbeing of society, its members, groupings and individuals. Some whistleblowing has come from disgruntled individuals with an ax to grind, but much has come from strong, motivated idealists who put their careers and lives on the line to let the public know of criminally-misguided secrecy/loyalty. Daniel Ellsberg drew our attention to the blatant immorality of our government during the Vietnam War (The Pentagon Papers)… and it was Dr. Jeffrey Wigand who put the nails to the a coffin of an industry (tobacco) that had been costing more lives and treasure than all of the wars (… and which unfortunately still does). Yes, during the past five decades we have seen the gamut of whistleblowing take place here in the United States, from disgruntled individuals often trying to exact personal revenge, to idealists masochistically seeking martyrdom; we might refer to the latter as non-Muslim jihadists of sorts. One thing for sure, none of the public disclosures that I can recall, regardless of source, had a detrimental effect for society; and society did greatly benefit from such public disclosure. So we may cast whistleblowers as heroes, or just ordinary people… but to call them traitors or villains appears as beyond the pale.

American zeitgeist, perhaps more pronouncedly than that of other major nations because of US’s leadership role, does not allow much room for criticism or dissent. Domestically, our government is well aware that most people prefer the illusion of safety over freedom and Congress-Pentagon-White House take advantage of that, as proven by Americans’ mind-boggling acceptance of the unconstitutional, authoritarian Patriot Act; and beyond our borders, where we are quickly learning that armed-conflict and world-policing is achieved far more successfully by drone than by marines.

Any debate as to whether Julian Assage, Edward Snowden, Chelsea (Bradley) Manning et al are heroes or villains is totally ill-conceived; we are likely to have to wait for history to declare hero-sainthood on any of them, but villains they definitely are not. And they should be protected by all of us – society – who have gained from their public disclosure. Let’s not forget for a minute that government has the power and the means to sway public discourse in its own interests, while these people have no such power or means; and these are the people who are helping us build a more constructive, hopeful world.

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By Col. R. Hariharan

Time has come for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a relook at Sri Lanka affairs under the leadership of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He has continued for too long to bash on regardless of his unkept promises to India on implementing the 13^th Constitutional Amendment in full. It was to be part of the resumption of the stalled political dialogue process with Tamil leaders which he promised to undertake.

Modi’s elevation as Prime Minister initially caused some concern to Rajapaksa as the BJP electoral partners in Tamil Nadu were well known for their strong anti-Rajapa and decidedly pro-Tamil separatist stand. But seeing the dynamic new Indian prime minister’s keenness to build better relations with India’s neighbours, Rajapaksa seems to have decided that it would be business as usual for Sri Lanka while dealing with India.

Just one example will suffice to explain Rajapaksa’s intransigent attitude to the dialogue process with Tamil leaders. Recently, the President had a wonderful opportunity to build bridges with Tamil polity when the 5-year tenure of Northern Province Governor Chandrasiri ended. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which is in power in the Province had for long been demanding replacing Chandrasiri a former General, with an experienced and well respected civilian, for which there is no dearth in Sri Lanka. The TNA felt such a move would provide a better equation in dealing with Colombo as the population was recovering from post war trauma.  The President could have acceded to their request now without any loss of face for anyone (except probably the President’s brother Gotabaya who has a different view on the subject) by appointing a civilian as the governor for Northern Province. Such a gesture would have helped to create good will not only among Tamils but also among large sections of Sri Lanka civil society who feel President Rajapaksa has not done enough to bringing the Tamils back into national mainstream and put an end to ethnic confrontation.

But the President chose to reappoint the outgoing Governor Chandrasiri for yet another term in the same job. It was a gesture in articulating the President’s power; the announcement came like a slap in the face of the Dr Wigneswaran, the TNA chief minister of the Province, because he had been demanding Chandrasiri’s replacement from day one in office. With it Rajapaksa has sent a clear signal to Tamils that there would be no rapprochement with them except on his terms.

This comes as no surprise if we see the evolution of Sri Lanka’s policy in the last five post war years. Its core contents appear to be

1. Marginalise India’s role on behalf of the Tamil constituency; of course, on all other aspects Colombo welcomes India’s initiatives in trade, defence, and other matters, naturally on terms favourable to Sri Lanka.
2. International NGOs should lay off Sri Lanka on issues like war crimes, human rights, governance, minority rights and rule of law. To be ‘fair’ to small countries they should go after big powers which seem to get away with much bigger crimes. Already Ministry of Defence which seems to have hand in the policy making pie, has already proposed restrictions on NGOs access to public media. Of course, the NGOs are welcome to associate with government-sponsored programmes to improve the well being of the people.
3. International bodies like the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) are manipulated by Western powers and the US. So Sri Lanka should not facilitate any role for them in its internal affairs (forget the UN conventions say because everyone flouts them). While Sri Lanka cannot stop their “meddling,” it can network with like-minded countries (eg., Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea etc) and make a lot of noise about the intrusive nature of UN commissions’ work because it echoes the view of many nations.
4. The Tamil issue has been solved with the elimination of Prabhakaran and the Tamil Tigers. But Sri Lanka would attend to Tamil grievances, if any, on its own terms without any external intervention. And the 13^th constitutional amendment was created to satisfy India and at best it is a benevolent gesture to Tamils. Tamils should be happy with its present form of incomplete implementation.
5. The army has an important role to play in keeping the Northern and Eastern provinces “sanitized” to prevent any ‘resurrection’ of Tamil terrorism abetted by Tamil Diaspora and their pals in TNA and the remnants of  LTTE abroad (and in Tamil Nadu).  So regardless of what the government says, the army will continue to keep a watch on the activity of Tamils everywhere including the North and East. As it is in the interest of national security, army’s intrusive role, if any, has to be tolerated by civilians and condoned by the government. As a corollary the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) would continue to be in force.

As far as India’s role on Tamils in Sri Lanka is concerned, in a nutshell, Rajapaksa is telling India “forget about full implementation of 13^th Amendment, or its Plus version I spoke about. It is for TNA to negotiate what it wants because basically it is our internal issue.”

Did Modi’s cordial meeting with Rajapaksa and the absence of any representative from his Tamil Nadu political partners in the cabinet influence Rajapaksa’s attitude?  It is time to shake up Colombo’s “business as usual” mindset at least a wee bit.

From this point of view I welcome the initiative taken by Civil Society Coalition for Justice and Peace delegation from Tamil Nadu which met with the Minister of External Affairs Mrs Sushma Swaraj to articulate the concerns of Tamils. The delegation led by the UPA coalition partner PMK’s leader Anbumani included civil society activist and former IAS officer MG Devasahyam, former Dharmapuri MP R Senthil and advocate R Balu. This is a welcome move because civil society has to be involved in articulating Tamil Nadu’s concerns on Sri Lanka Tamil issue, which has been used for too long by political parties only to score political brownie points.

I do not agree with the delegation’s view that China, Pakistan, and Burma were ganging up with Sri Lanka against India because it is too simplistic. India’s Sri Lanka policy cannot be changed overnight because it is not exclusively Tamil-centric but includes other issues of national interest like trade, maritime and security concerns as well.

But I fully agree with them on two other points they made:

• India should prevail upon Rajapaksa for a course correction in keeping with his promises to India on resuming the political process with the Tamil representatives.
• Rajapaksa should be made to address concerns of India and international community on Sri Lanka’s accountability for alleged human rights violations and war crimes articulated in the UNHRC resolutions.

As a first step in this process, India can tell Sri Lanka that it would reconsider its stand on the UN resolution adopted last March when it comes for review in the next UNHRC meeting.

In March 2014 India had abstained from voting for the resolution because it considered operative paragraph 10 calling for sending an international investigation team to Sri Lanka as intrusive. But Sri Lanka should be an exception to this because Rajapaksa has not fulfilled his promises to India. And Rajapaksa will not realise it unless India takes a hard stand on this count.

Lastly, I agree with the delegation on the need for a special officer at the MEA to handle Sri Lanka.  I wrote on this issue in an article the Indian Foreign Affairs Journal April-June 2012 issue; “India-Sri Lanka relations need a more integrated political-diplomatic-strategic-trade strategy evolved by national leadership. The resources at the Ministry of External Affairs are totally inadequate to execute such a strategy, even if it is devised. Perhaps creating a special task force with its element in Chennai would be the answer. Then only India can show Sri Lanka that it is serious about strengthening its relationship as equal partner.” I stand by it.

(This article contains excerpts from a media interview given by the author on August 16, 2014.)

(Col Hariharan is a retired MI officer who served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blogs: http://col.hariharan.info & http://hariharansintblog.blogspot.in)

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The answer to that question is—perhaps. But for a number of reasons, some suggested below, it’s not a happy picture, and it won’t be a walk in the park.

The recent “victories” by DAASH (IS, or Islamic State) in Syria and Iraq have not taken long to begin reverberating through the ground in Lebanon. A gauntlet of sorts stands before this country, one that it must negotiate successfully if it is to avoid an all-out war, dismemberment or its substantial subjection to elements of extreme Islam.

One ISIS leader, Abu Sayyaf al-Ansari, recently announced the expansion of the IS to include Lebanon, declaring, “Our war will no longer be confined to Syria and Iraq. Soon, Lebanon will ignite.” Meanwhile, Lebanon’s branch of al-Nusra Front posted on its Twitter feed its fourth official statement to date, entitled “Urgent appeal to Sunnis in Lebanon.” The statement reads in part:
Our war will no longer be confined to Syria. Soon, Lebanon will ignite. Iran’s party [i.e. Hezbollah] and all its bases and strongholds are a legitimate target for us wherever they may be found.
The sole concern, Al-Nusra went on to proclaim, is for the blood of the Sunnis and to clear the Umma’s “conscience before God,” and the organization issued a call for “Sunnis in Lebanon to refrain from approaching or residing in [Hezbollah] areas or near its bases, and to avoid its gathering places and posts.”

Security sources have reported that the terrorist cells intercepted at the Napoleon and Duroy hotels in Beirut had been dispatched by ISIS as part of its strategy to overwhelm Lebanon with a formidable wave of suicide bombings. The security services apparently base this reading on the previous modus operandi and strategy of the terrorist cells, and also on information relayed by U.S. and European sources, indicating that the many suicide bombers had been dispatched by ISIS/Nusra Front to Lebanon.

It is fairly clear as of 7/11/14 that jihadi factions are racing to declare war on Lebanon, this occurring simultaneous to a Lebanese Army crackdown on individuals suspected of involvement with these groups. Analysts in Washington and Europe suggest that the jihadi expansion into Lebanon will be a developing new phase, ushering in a paradigm shift in terror attacks in the country. Some even suggest that halting this forward progress will require Hezbollah taking a lead role, and that the Lebanese Army and security agencies are not up to the job.

Hezbollah may agree with Washington, at least on the latter point. Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP WalidSukkarieh, from the Bekaa Valley, called this week for cooperation between the armies of Lebanon and Syria to control the flow of gunmen through the border—but he pointed out that the presence of Lebanese security forces along the border in the eastern town of Arsal aren’t enough to do the job.

“The fanatic groups will try to take control over a big geographical area in Akkar and the Palestinian camps,” he said. “I have information from Akkar about ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra training camps. They’re trying to move toward Tripoli, and their plan is to get closer to Beirut.”

Reports are also mounting of sleeper cells in different Lebanese regions such as Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and North Lebanon, and according to Sukkarieh, “Thousands are flocking from around the world to join the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.”

Two quick cases in point. The lovely British twin sisters, 16-year-old Salma and Zahra Halane, are bubbly, exceptionally bright, and hold amazing 28 GCSEs (GSCE, or General Certificate of Secondary Education, is an academic qualification awarded in a specified subject in the British education system). Both girls were planning to train as doctors. Now, however, they are in Syria, where they reportedly have joined DAASH, and may soon be headed for Lebanon. Reports suggest the sisters were normal teenagers, doing what teens do everywhere these days—pouting for selfies, shopping, participating in school activities, etc.—and they apparently did not discuss politics much with friends, although they were known to support the Palestinian cause.Their parents believe they followed their older jihadi brother, who left for Syria last year, suspending his higher education, at which he also had excelled. At any rate, the teenagers’ parents speculate that Salma and Zahra became radicalized while viewing extremist Islamist material online, though really no one knows for certain.

The other example is the British DAASH recruit, Muthanna, by all reports a sweet, polite, and very considerate young man. Muthanna is now an IS spokesman, urging all people of good will to join him in the new Caliphate in making jihad for the betterment of mankind. The kid is barely out of high school. The family immigrated to Britain from Yemen, and before deciding to join DAASH, Muthanna had been accepted by four medical schools in Britain, according to the UK Daily Mail.

“Send us; we are your sharp arrows,” he has pledged to IS “Amir” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. “Throw us at your enemies wherever they may be.”

On another video, the young man can be seen saying, “We’ll go to Jordan and Lebanon with no problem.”

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, by the way, shares the same forename-by-deed-poll with the first Caliph of Islam, Abu Bakr al-Siddiq (the Truthful), but what’s in a name? More importantly, why are some our best and brightest young Muslims joining extremist jihadists? Can they be reasoned with and stopped? How many more youngsters at this hour are preparing something similar?

Recent developments in Iraq and Syria should be worrisome. DAASH’s goals of creating an Islamic state across the Sunni Arab world and erasing the borders drawn by colonial powers have energized jihadist factions across the region and even the world. In a video released last week, a group of jihadist fighters from several countries showed their support for ISIS. “We have participated in battles in Al-Sham (Syria) and we will go to Iraq in a few days, and then we’ll come back and move to Lebanon,” they aver.

In point of fact, DAASH has already come to Lebanon, and more jihadists arrive every day. This country’s extremely politicized and sectarian local media have been accused of frightening the public by overstating the matter, and these days “news” accounts of DAASH agents flooding across the Syrian border have been a bit weak on substantive details. Moreover, every “confession” from a “takfiri” is widely suspected to be the result of torture. But be that as it may, on 7/9/14 Beirut’s Daily Star, citing security sources, announced that “Nusra Front and IS (DAASH)-affiliated cells are regularly making their way into Beirut, readying themselves to conduct more suicide bombings in Lebanon…some of these cells have received intensive trainings in secret locations in Arsal’s Wadi Hamayed.”

Suspected also, it seems, is that several members of fundamentalist groups may be laying low in various apartments and hotels across the Lebanese capital, as well as in Palestinian refugee camps. What appears fairly certain is that Lebanon is being nominated to join the IS—and that DAASH is here. We also hear reports of 28 rigged cars, vehicles purportedly being kept in secret locations in Arsal, Western Beqaa, Tripoli, and the Beirut neighborhood of Tariq al-Jadideh. The autos are said to be hidden in camouflaged garages, while security forces are working to determine the identity of their owners.

DAASH’s ability to inspire such intense support, such as from the young people noted above, worries Lebanese and U.S. officials. Their fighters seemingly will go anywhere and do anything for the cause, combining an intense passion for “justice” with an unusual degree of organization, technical skill and tactical planning. Some in Lebanon are beginning to refer to “Amir” Bakr Baghdadi as “the Nasrallah of DAASH.” Both leaders exhibit personal charisma, intelligence and ability to gather and inspire followers. Some have even gone so far as to suggest organizational acumen and self-sacrifice similarities between the two men and their organizations, despite profound ideological/religious/sectarian differences.

An IS invasion of Lebanon, along the lines of what it achieved in northwest Iraq, is thus looking increasingly likely. Most of the expected tactics are well known in Lebanon, and include bringing suicide bombers to target politicians, the use of ISIS sleeper cells, and exploiting some specific areas in some Palestinian or Syrian refugee camps. Lebanese journalist Jean Aziz, for one, feels the threat is quite significant. Aziz discusses a recent intelligence report making the rounds that concludes that DAASH will invade Lebanon from Al-Qalamoun Mountains, more specifically from the western slope of the eastern mountain range between Lebanon and Syria. The expected massive DAASH ground incursion will include a large force comprised of various nationalities, a force well known to be gathering in the mountainous regions and consisting of veterans from nearby battles, including at al-Qusayr, villages around Homs, Yabrud, Nabak Nasab, and west to Qalamoun, as well as hardened fighters from secret camps near the Lebanon border.

The report cited by Aziz estimates that as many as 5,000 DAASH fighters will be mobilized by offering cash, spoils, “victory” and enlargement of the Islamic State. Many are believed currently residing in caves and tunnels dug in the mountains over the past three years, reportedly with a huge arsenal of weapons and ammunition, and once the battle begins, thousands of fighters from across Lebanon may pledge allegiance to DAASH. What is disturbing security services in Beirut, Washington and elsewhere, is Lebanon’s seemingly vast geography of fertile sectarian soil for IS to plant its creed, grow recruits and harvest territory for the expanding Caliphate.

Some in Washington also feel an attack could be launched from Arsal, possibly under cover of several simultaneous attacks around the country from sleeper cells. Such attacks most likely would target key Lebanese military and security sites, and could be carried out with the assistance of many in Lebanon who are sympathetic to DAASH. This would include residents in some Palestinian camps as well Syrian refugees in certain sensitive areas.

Another development, one being downplayed by Washington but which is said to be causing private worry in the Pentagon, is this week’s Iraqi warning to the UN that Sunni militants have seized nuclear materials used for scientific research at a university in Mosul. In a letter reported by Reuters, Iraq’s envoy to the UN is claiming that DAASH has taken possession of nearly 40kg (88lb) of uranium compounds.

Washington and Tehran, along with their allies, view threats from DAASH similarly in some respects. Islamist militants that have swept across Iraq and parts of Syria pose a clear and “imminent danger,” as Defense Secretary Chuck. Hegel put it.

“Make no mistake—and this country should not make any mistake on this, nor anyone in Congress—this is a threat to our country,” Hagel said. “This is a force that is sophisticated, it’s dynamic, it’s strong, it’s organized, it’s well-financed, it’s competent.”

Similarly, Tehran has made it clear Iran will not tolerate an IS caliphate on its borders, nor will it allow the formation of a Sunni mini-state in Iraq’s Anbar province backed by Turkey or one of the Gulf States. Meanwhile Hezbollah is closely following the political, security and field developments in Iraq, and is reportedly conducting intensive meetings with military officials from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, with summaries of the discussions forwarded to Gen. Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC. Iran is aware that despite its support for the Iraqi regime’s weak forces and the claimed “revitalization” of Iraqi Shia militias, it cannot contain DAASH on its own, and this fact is leading to speculation of a limited US-Iran détente.

One question frequently asked by this observer in the Palestinian camps and in Hamra is why are Sunni Muslims, who in the main, like their Shia brothers and sisters, are distinctively moderate—why are they suddenly and seemingly in great numbers taking such an interest in DAASH’s military achievements? And why are so many insisting that the Umma will modify and tame the DAASH jihadist tiger, once the Caliphate returns, as happened to a great extent under the Ottomans?

This observer, like many in this region, has been struck by the Sunni-Shia mutual mistrust and growing antagonism, a rupture that will deeply affect Lebanon’s coming war with DAASH. During the spate of bombings over the past year in my largely Shia Hezbollah neighborhood of South Beirut—bombings which left many dead and wounded, including two lovely youngsters, Ali and Marie, from my building on Abbas Mousawi Street—I took strong personal umbrage when a few Sunni friends made outrageous comments like, “They (their countrymen and fellow Muslims in Dahiyeh) deserved it, and let’s hope there are many more bombings of the party of Satan by the rebels!”

Despite this appalling hate speech, which appears to be growing these days in Lebanon, does Hezbollah hold the keys to ending the Sunni-Shia conflict in Lebanon and defeating DAASH? This observer believes that it does, and that Hezbollah, in partnership with Lebanese security forces, can and will stop DAASH, that it will do this by employing some of the elements of a Sunni-Shia strategy outlined in a written report by the author this week for Hezbollah leadership.

Parts of the rationale will be presented in Part II of this article entitled: “How Hezbollah can rescue Lebanon from DAASH (IS), substantially reduce the regional Shia-Sunni internecine catastrophe and build Lebanon’s economy and its Resistance.”

The post Can Hezbollah Prevent DAASH (IS) From Pulling Lebanon Into Its Caliphate? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The future of a nuclear South Asian is in the doldrums in the wake of evolving strategically twiddling intentions revealed and publicized by the Indian civil leader’s articulations from time to time.

BJP leader Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a staunch Hindutva proponent, said that India needs only two years to defeat Pakistan militarily and that India determines to use nuclear weapons as only an option left to solve the lingering Kashmir dispute among the south Asian nuclear rivals.

‘In an interview, Dr. Swamy said that the Muslims have no connections with India and that they did not want to live with Hindus, they should lift India.’ Meanwhile, he stressed on the ISIS vision of an Islamic state that stretches up to Gujrat in India
is serious enough for India to prepare for war. He said “we’ll have a war… war with the Islamic caliphate that will be set up very soon which will include Pakistan and Afghanistan. Start preparing. Send troops to Afghanistan. Make friends with Iran because they are Shiites and those militants are all Sunnis.”

More to the point, Prime Minister Modi, in his election campaign promised to maintain a tough posture against both China and Pakistan. It is important to note here that China was the only country, not invited to the Modi’s swearing-in ceremony
where all the country’s immediate neighbors were invited. Ironically, on one hand, retaining a dual and dubious policy, India with such acts, depicts its apprehensions towards China and on the other hand, BJP (as stated by Dr. Swamy) aspires to neutralize relations with China in order to overwhelm its inclination towards Pakistan.

Whereas the Chinese government is keen to improve its ties with India in the face of regional strategic threats and certain border disputes among both nations.

Admittedly, the country successfully did acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction (by illegal diversion of civilian technology for military purpose), but at the same time New Delhi forgot the fact that nuclear weapons are not meant for use, rather than only to achieve political objectives. In this instance, if anyone abnormally
decides on or even contemplates to make violent use of WMD, Pakistan is, in response capable of the best capacity with the worlds competent army soldiers, a glimpse of which Indians must be seen in the on-going operation named under “Zarb-e-Azb” (a joint-military offensive operation).

Dr. Swamy needs to update himself with the worst consequences by the use of Nuclear weapons on either side, when he aspires “there would be no Pakistan left”.

Critically analyzing the heinous intentions of Dr. Subramanian Swamy at the time when the world is looking after the emerging policies of the BJP’s mentality or its new government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi can easily be evaluated and deducted in light of the on-going milieu. Previously, when BJP came to power, in
1998, the party announced its agenda publicly by deliberating its intentions “to exercise the nuclear option and induct nuclear weapons, occupy Azad Kashmir and to demolish mosques to build Hindu temples.”

In the same manner, BJP today in 2014 remains on its original agenda and is just fueling the fire. The need is to understand the original agenda of the party. If one is able to get the core objective of BJP in that case, by comparing it with its present will definitely make
some sense, as it will reinforce the idea that they are still in the enmity of Pakistan. Likewise, the hawkish BJP leader Dr. Swamy, stood up against the Muslims in a write-up labeled, How to wipe out Islamic terror, July 14, 2011.

Dr. Swamy, himself is exceptionally against Pakistan therefore does not leave a bit to target Pakistan in one or the other way. Moreover, the security implications of new strategic and military developments in the region should also be given its considerable amount of weight-age here. In this regard, PM Modi has been briefed about nuclear code and visited Sriharikota to witness the launch of ISRO’s
PSLV C-23 rocket. He is, beyond doubt, taking interest in expanding India’s military power.

Correspondingly, since the BJP came into power once again, New Delhi is aggressively engage in the brutal killing of Muslims in India along with LoC disturbances whilst Pakistan is proposing plans for economic cooperation in order to normalize the decade’s long fragile relationship among each other that would certainly improve the
tense regional strategic environment.

Any rational mind would definitely think here about the probability of the tale that the ‘Indian No First Use’ is going to be phase-out. Paradoxically narrating, such atrocious statements are of no use in view of the fact that the other state has not kept nuclear weapons as a decoration piece and has successfully acquired and maintained its deterrence capability, and will surely do it in future even if the circumstances lead to the unfortunate use of WMDs, Pakistan would not compromise on its sovereignty. Sagaciously our beloved neighbor! a war (use the nuclear weapons) is not a choice to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir Dispute contrarily it would be a nightmare for India. By and large, it would not be wrong to wrap up that deterrence in a globalised world which is becoming complex, time in and time out.

The post Use Of Nuclear Force: BJP’s Model – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr Subhash Kapila

Contemporaneous review of the Asian security landscape would in mid-2014 suggest with clarity that China has emerged as a major threat to Asian security and stability. The China threat palpably raises concerns all over the Indo Pacific.

The China threat to Asian security and stability can only recede if China elects to modulate its aggressive strategies and militarily provocative postures and takes conscious steps to generate “strategic trust” amongst Asian countries as a whole. Then only can it project convincing credentials within Asia that it is a benign stakeholder in Asian security and stability.

Alternatively, the China threat can be diluted if the global major powers and the major Asian powers act in a concerted manner to checkmate China’s unprecedented military rise and military assertiveness all over Asia whether on the land borders or in Asia’s maritime expanses.

United States, Russia and major Asian powers like India need to be strategically honest in highlighting the China threat that has already emerged and created “strategic distrust” all over Asia. Strategic analysts and policy analysts have already started speculating that if the powers named above do not exercise some plain-speaking on China’s aggressive impulses all along its land and maritime borders and now air spaces over international waters, then dangers exist of a Nazi Germany-like danger looming all over Asia with devastating effects.

Nazi Germany too was being appeased and molly-coddled by the existing powers of the day and the same trend is visible today in relation to China.

From South Asia through South East Asia and on to East Asia there is not one major region of the Indo Pacific in which China is not involved in territorial and sovereignty disputes with its neighbours and where lately China in defiance of international norms not indulged in conflict generation, conflict escalation or aggressive military brinkmanship.

China’s propensity to do so arises from its historical record of seeking resolution of its territorial disputes with its neighbours by the use of military force or the threat to use military force. China does so with immunity, secure in the belief that the powers that could provide counter-vailing power to restrain China would hesitate in doing so because of their own selfish political expediencies.

It is therefore galling for strategic analysts that whether at the global level countries like the United States engage China on the specious pleas that China needs to be engaged to bring it in the global mainstream as a responsible stakeholder in global security. This has not generated any matching positive responses from China.

Similarly, it is galling to witness the spectacle at multilateral summits like the BRICS Summit recently where an unwarranted deference is displayed by countries like India towards China completely oblivious to China’s demonstrated record of the military situation on the India-Tibet border where Chinese troops were committing incursions even while the BRICS Summit was ongoing.

A brief review of the Asian security landscape is in order in relation to what China has demonstrated in each of the Asian regions in terms of its propensity to use force or threat to use force or use regional proxies to further its strategic ends.

East Asia is the latest theatre of China’s military aggressiveness and brinkmanship. China has upped the military ante ‘against Japan by provocative actions and political and military coercion against Japan over the ownership of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. China has gone a step further in its military provocations by declaring an ADIZ over the East China Sea setting a new provocative trend of controlling and dominating the ‘air-space’ over international maritime expanses.

East Asia also provides the glaring instance of China using its North Korea protégé, equipped with nuclear weapons and IRBMs—courtesy China, to introduce an added destabilising and uncertain strategic element in a highly surcharged and edgy strategic environment.

South East Asia provides the most glaring example of China’s conflict-escalation and use of political and military coercion against its small and less powerful neighbours like Vietnam and the Philippines. Here again China has been involved in islands- grabbing in the South China Sea from both the Philippines and Vietnam by use of naked military force. China still has not restrained itself from aggression in the Spratly Islands.

In South East Asia too China has a new-found proxy, namely Cambodia to divide ASEAN regional grouping unity in relation to its South China Sea military adventurism.

In South Asia, more appropriately to be termed as the Indian Subcontinent, China and India are locked in a military confrontation along the India-Tibet border. The territorial disputes that China has imposed on India as elsewhere in Asia are characterised by China’s dogged obstinacy to maintain in what can be construed as any settlement of the vexed border issues can only be done on China’s terms.

China’s aggression against India is a regular feature whether in Ladakh or in Arunachal Pradesh in the form of intrusions into Indian Territory or violations of Indian airspace. The situation is militarily tense as China approaches to India are from a position of strength emerging from a militarisation of the Tibetan Plateau including deployment of nuclear missiles targeting India without a corresponding Indian military build-up.

To arrest India’s rise as an Asian power and keep it confined to the Indian Subcontinent, China for over four decades now has built Pakistan as its regional protégé and the ‘regional destabiliser state’.

China’s propensity to resort to political and military coercion on the Asian strategic spaces are only likely to grow as China expands its nuclear and missiles arsenal and its force projection capabilities as it makes a bid to muzzle its way into being recognised as a “strategic co-equal” of the United States.

With the strategic canvass of the Asian security landscape that has been unfolded above can any reasonable analysis suggest otherwise that China is not a threat to Asian security and stability?

(The views expressed are his own)

The post China Is The Major Threat To Asian Security And Stability – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Reprieve, the legal action charity whose lawyers represent a number of prisoners still held at Guantánamo Bay revealed yesterday that a nurse with the US military at the prison “recently refused to force-feed” prisoners “after witnessing the suffering” it caused them.

Abu Wa’el Dhiab, a Syrian prisoner long cleared for release from Guantánamo, who is in a wheelchair as a result of his physical deterioration after 12 years in US custody without charge or trial, told his lawyer Cori Crider during a phone call last week (on July 10) that the male nurse “recently told him he would no longer participate in force-feedings.”

Dhiab reported that the nurse said, “I have come to the decision that I refuse to participate in this criminal act.”

He added that, “after the man made his decision known, he never saw him again,” and Reprieve noted that he had “apparently been assigned elsewhere.”

Reprieve also noted that the nurse had spoken to Mr. Dhiab about what he perceived to be “the discrepancy between military descriptions of force-feeding and the reality.” He said, as Mr. Dhiab described it, “before we came here, we were told a different story. The story we were told was completely the opposite of what I saw.” Mr. Dhiab added that other nurses had “voiced their concern” about force-feeding, but had stated that they “had no power to object.” He said he frequently heard comments along the lines of, “Listen, we have no choice. We are worried about our job, our rank.”

Reprieve described how the nurse’s stand was “thought to be the first case of ‘conscientious objection’ to force-feeding at Guantánamo since a mass hunger-strike began at the prison last year.”

Abu Wa’el Dhiab’s story will be familiar to these who are studying Guantánamo closely, as he is one of six cleared prisoners offered new homes in Uruguay by President Mujica and is “currently engaged in a high-profile court battle against force-feeding, winning the first-ever disclosure of videotapes of the practice,” as Reprieve described it, and as I reported here.

Last month, his lawyers were permitted to watch the videotapes at a Pentagon facility in Virginia, and afterwards Cori Crider stated, “I had trouble sleeping after viewing them.” However, as was revealed in yesterday’s press release, the lawyers are “banned from disclosing their contents to the public or even, in unprecedented censorship, to other security-cleared Guantánamo lawyers.” On June 20, 16 mainstream media organizations submitted a motion in which they are seeking to have the force-feeding tapes made public.

In response to the news about the nurse’s principled opposition to force-feeding, Cori Crider said, “This is a historic stand by this nurse, who recognized the basic humanity of the detainees and the inhumanity of what he was being asked to do. He should be commended. He should also be permitted to continue to give medical care to prisoners on the base but exempted from a practice he rightly sees as a violation of medical ethics.”

In the Miami Herald, veteran Guantánamo reporter Carol Rosenberg reported how, in response to questions about the nurse, Navy Capt. Tom Gresback, a spokesman for the prison, said by email, “There was a recent instance of a medical provider not willing to carry out the enteral feeding of a detainee. The matter is in the hands of the individual’s leadership.” He added that the nurse had been given “alternative duties.”

Rosenberg added that the nurse’s refusal to force-feed prisoners took place “sometime before the Fourth of July.”

She also quoted Cori Crider saying that the nurse’s decision took “real courage,” and that “none of us should underestimate how hard that has been.”

Rosenberg also noted that the nurse was with the Navy medical corps, but explained that the Miami Herald had “not been able to determine the nurse’s name or home base,” although Cori Crider explained that Mr. Dhiab had “described the nurse as a perhaps 40-year-old Latino who turned up on the cellblocks in April or May, with the rank of a ‘captain,’” although Rosenberg thought it likely that he was a Navy lieutenant. She also noted how, last year, in the New England Journal of Medicine, civilian doctors on the US mainland had “decried as unethical the Guantánamo military medical staff’s practice of force-feeding mentally competent hunger strikers,” and had “urged a medical mutiny.”

No one knows how many of the 149 men still held at Guantánamo are currently on hunger strike, as the military stopped reporting the numbers in December, after a nine-month period in which numbers had been reported on a daily basis. In February, Shaker Aamer, the last British resident in the prison, stated that there were 35 hunger strikers at the time, and that 18 of them were being force-fed.

The Miami Herald also reported further details about Cori Crider’s recent call with Abu Wa’el Dhiab, noting that, as the newspaper put it, he “described how he came to witness the nurse’s evolution toward refusing to tube feed across two or three months of treatment.” Mr. Dhiab explained that this evolution was “very compassionate.”

Carol Rosenberg added further details about the force-feeding of prisoners, as explained to reporters who visit Guantánamo Bay but are not allowed to see the force-feedings take place. She wrote that “a Navy medical team uses a calculus of meals missed and weight lost to decide when to recommend a once or twice a day tube feeding of a can of Ensure or other nutritional supplement.” The commander of the camps, who is a Navy admiral and not a doctor, is required to approve each feeding, which is managed by a “sailor trained as a medic.”

The process of the force-feeding itself is well documented — not least in the video of Yasiin Bey (formerly the rapper Mos Def) being force-fed last year, and in the animated film about force-feeding produced for Reprieve and the Guardian.

Cori Crider also explained how, before his complete refusal to be involved in force-feeding, the nurse “at times waived a doctor’s order to do a tube feeding,” as the Miami Herald described it.

She said Mr. Dhiab had told her, “Here, whenever a person has a fever or is sick, the typical force-feeding crew were still very rough with you. However, when he came to the block and saw that the person had a fever or was sick, he would say, ‘OK, because you are sick, you are not able to receive force-feeding’ and left them alone for that day.”

Crider added that the nurse should be permitted to tell his story to Judge Gladys Kessler, who issued the order requiring the authorities to release videotapes of Mr. Dhiab’s force-feeding to his lawyers, “despite any nondisclosure agreements detention center staff are obliged to sign,” in the Miami Herald‘s words. Judge Kessler said last month that a full hearing on the merits of Abu Wa’el Dhiab’s force-feeding challenge should take place by Labor Day, which falls on the first Monday in September.

“If he [the nurse] wants to give that evidence he should be allowed to give it,” Crider added.

The post Nurse At Guantánamo Refuses To Take Part In Force-Feedings, Calls Them ‘Criminal Act’ – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.