Croats have long been discriminated against not only at the level of the Bosnia-Herzegovina Presidency, but also in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, where parties with predominant Croat electoral support have not entered government.

By Ivan Vukoja

Following the title of a widely read book by Mirjana Kasapović,[1] one can pertinently describe Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) as continuing to be “a divided society and an unstable state.” Nearly all relevant local and international political actors agree with this diagnosis. However, when it comes to the issue of the causes of such instability and division, as well as to the issue of how to amend this condition, views are divergent and deeply polarized.

Simplifying somewhat, some argue that the key causes of such instability lie in Serb and Croat ethno-nationalist policy. A solution, therefore, can be found in the dismissal or negation of the constitutional category of ‘constituent peoples’ and in the subsequent transformation of BiH into a state-citizenship based society and an one-national state with ‘a single voter, a single vote’ principle of election to state offices. In a similar vein, the Croat and Serb ethno-nationalists are accused of undermining the state of BiH or of separatism, which, according to this picture, is a key cause of instability in BiH. The second kind of response is given by those who prioritize ethno-nationalist interests over the interest of a common state of BiH. They view BiH as but a loose confederation and a temporary frame to be accepted under unique conditions and in a unique circumstance. They also tend to justify their own separatism as but a response to unitary and centralistic policy.

The third school of thought begins with the premise that politically-given identity-relations need to be respected as ethno-national identities are both historically-entrenched and recognized in constitutional-legal terms. This school emphasizes that stability of BiH can be promoted only on the foundation of full equality, constitution- and institution-wise, of the three constituent peoples (Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs), considering of course the rights of those who do not view themselves as members of the constituent peoples. This school is also opposed to unitarianist or centralizing policy of the second group, which they view as an extended hand of the ‘Bosniak majoritarian’ nationalist politics. However, it is also opposed to separatism as a highly harmful policy both to their own ethno-national agenda and to the interests of the common state in which they aim to find their own place. Hence, in this view, BiH is considered as a multi-national state to which consociationalist and federalist constitutional principles ought to apply.

The first option is one that is mostly found in the Bosniak-pro-Bosnian political community; the second mostly in the Serb, and the third in the Croat community. Since the end of the war and the beginning of implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community was pushing by and large for the first option. Recently this trend seems to have started reversing, as attested by a Resolution of the European Parliament [2] from February 6 2014, which places the blame for instability equally on the unitarianist/centralist tendency and separatism. Furthermore the latest ICG report acknowledged both the existence and legitimacy of the three political communities, and consequently referred to a federal, three-entity based structure of BiH as a possible solution.[3]

In addition to the three mutually-dissonant political agendas, BiH is burdened further by flawed legal arrangements. For instance, the Election Law currently in force is unconstitutional, hence illegitimate and illegal. The preamble to the BiH Constitution which refers to Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks as constituent peoples, together with some other constitutional provisions, such as those on the Houses of Peoples, ethnic quota, ethnic parity, vital national interests, etc., that ensure an institutional back-up to the preamble, point necessarily to a single direction – an election law that enables the constituent peoples to elect their own political representatives and be thus represented in the bodies of the government. Unfortunately, the election law currently in force deviates significantly from such democratic principles.

The General elections 2014

The Election Law has previously made it possible for Željko Komšić to be elected twice as a Croat member of the BiH Presidency through predominantly Bosniak vote. Hence, over the last eight years we have the following condition in BiH Presidency: Croats do not have their own representative to the Presidency, Serbs have one representative, while Bosniaks have two. This is so despite the fact that the BiH Constitution refers to Croats, Serbs, and Bosniaks as equal constituent peoples, and stipulates that the BiH Presidency is composed of a Croat, Serbian, and Bosniak member – three members for three constituent peoples.

Bosniak and pro-Bosnian commentators, plus a significant number of politicians, have attempted to justify such an obvious case of discrimination against Croats by drawing on an interpretation according to which “the Croat member of BiH Presidency” should mean a member who ‘originates from’ the Croat people, a people’s affiliate, but not their representative. According to such thinking, those who declare their ethnic affiliation as Bosniak can legitimately elect a Croat member of the Presidency – all it takes for this to happen is that the candidate (A) declared his or her own ethnic affiliation as Croat. The Croat voters can vote all for B, however, despite their perhaps unanimous support, B will not assume the office of the Croat member of BiH Presidency. Since the Election Law actually opens the space for such discrimination against Croats – and is founded tacitly on a non-democratic, absurd and totalitarian constitutional interpretation -the Election Law can be reasonably declared anti-constitutional, hence illegal and illegitimate.

The Election Law opens the space for such discrimination. However, in order to implement actual discriminatory practice, one needs actors willing to implement it. On the one hand, one needs voters who will make a decision to cast their vote in favour of a representative of a political community to which the voter is not affiliated. One also needs, on the other hand, those candidates who are willing to collude with such voters and assume office following the vote. In accordance with liberal-democratic principles, such practice by both the voter and the candidate ought to be qualified as undemocratic and illegitimate. From a moral point of view, such practice ought to also be qualified as immoral and corrupt.

Croats are discriminated against not only at the level of the BiH Presidency, but also at the level of the entity of BiH Federation, where political decisions are made that have a major impact on Croats as a people. It is through constitutional amendments imposed by international representatives and ‘protectors’ [4], and through consequent changes to the Election Law, that the Alliance for Change formed the BiH Federation Government in 2000, and then, following the 2010 elections, that so-called ‘Platforma’ parties (SDP BiH, SDA, HSP BiH, NS RZB) assumed the central government offices of the BiH Federation. The lack of Croat electoral legitimacy is a common denominator to both governments. The parties with predominant Croat electoral support have not entered the government, while parties with minor Croat electoral support, but ample Bosniak political representatives’ support, have entered.

Such abuse of electoral outcomes was founded also on a ‘reform’ of the House of Peoples of the BiH Federation which, under the Washington agreement, is composed of Bosniak and Croat 30 member clubs that made decisions by a simple majority [5]. The reforms added to the House both a Serb and a club of ‘Others’, while the number of representatives per clubs was reduced to 17, and a simple majority decision making by individual clubs was reduced to one-third threshold. As 6 of 17 delegates to the Croat club are actually elected in Cantons with a Bosniak majority, this has enabled Bosniaks to elect 6 “Croats of their own” and thereby gain supremacy within the Croat club. Additionally, Bosniaks are by electoral rules enabled to elect over two-thirds of the members of Bosniak, Serb and the club of ‘Others’ [6], which ultimately leads to full Bosniak control over the BiH Federation House of Peoples.

In the 2010 elections, Bosniak political decision-makers and their electorate miscalculated somewhat, which resulted in the election of 5 “Croats of their own.” Since they needed one-third of the Croat club to appoint the BiH Federation President and the BiH Federation Government, the High Representative, Valentin Inzko, stepped in and suspended the decision by the BiH CEC. Thereby Inzko actually declared that 5 is one third of 17 (the so-called ‘Inzko’s theorem’). In addition to the current condition which is marked by abrogated powers and a suspended CEC decision [7], and by an anti-constitutional Election Law, as well as by an illegitimate and illegal Government and President of the BiH Federation, and the fact that over the last eight years Croats do not have their own representative at the BiH Presidency, another disconcerting aspect is that not a single participant to the ‘Platforma’ coup-d’état has publicly conceded that a major error was committed, or that an immoral or illegitimate deed was done, nor have they committed to refrain from participating in further electoral and post-electoral engineering or another ‘Platform.’

In order to replay the script of the last general election, apart from the illegitimate Bosniak vote, one needs as well some nominally Croat parties that would be willing to supply another ‘Platforma’ government with some appearance of Croat legitimacy. The current Platforma member parties that are at least nominally Croat are unable to do that: HSP BiH disintegrated, while the leaders of NS RZB (Lijanovići) have been recently detained. The only party that may play such a role is the HDZ 1990, a party that is formally a member of the Croat National Assembly (HNS) of BiH, but refused to be a member of the HNS coalition at the forthcoming elections. HDZ 1990 joined instead ranks with a party that was formerly a member of the ‘Alliance for Change’, which is why a part of HDZ 1990 left the party and formed the Croat Republican Party. One of the indications that HDZ 1990 might be toying with the idea of the possibility of electoral engineering and of joining another ‘Platforma government’ is also in the fact that the party had a pre-election rally in Goražde, a town with six Croat inhabitants. Additionally, Martin Raguž, the President of HDZ 1990, and a candidate for the post of BiH Presidency member, presents himself in Komšić style as a candidate appealing to all the citizens who support his program. Šeherzada Delić, the head of the BiH ‘First Party,’ announced recently that 21,800 of the party’s members and supporters would vote for Martin Raguž. Instead of drawing on the rights of the constituent peoples to elect their own representatives or protecting the Croat electoral legitimacy, as his did in 2010, Martin Raguž FB-page today expresses thanks and appreciation to Šeherzada Delić’s support.

Concluding remarks

The cases of Komšić, the Alliance for Change and ‘Platforma’, demonstrate that – at the levels of the BiH Presidency, the Government and the Presidency of the BiH Federation, and the Federation House of Peoples – Croats are deprived of their rights and are subject to majoritarian imposition by some Bosniak political parties/elites and Bosniak voter population, including those who endow such elites/parties with electoral legitimacy and those who abuse their voter rights by supporting representatives of a political community to which they are not affiliated. Of course, the responsibility for such majoritarian imposition, and subsequent de-constituting, of BiH Croats also lies with representatives and institutions of the international community who approve of, and support, such majoritarian practice

However, the largest share of responsibility is on nominally Croat parties and Croat political representatives who supply such a majoritarian practice with some appearance of legitimacy. Speaking both in logical and practical terms, it is impossible for a party to be Croat without recognizing the Croat electoral legitimacy. Such a party is of Croat-orientation only because it recognizes such legitimacy; once it starts opposing it, the party ceases to be Croat-oriented. In the same vein, no representative can be a Croat representative at any level of government, or at any institution, without being backed by Croat electoral legitimacy. To those political representatives who lack such legitimacy, and who nevertheless accept to usurp the position to which they have no constitutional right, the designation ‘imposed representatives’ or quislings pertains [8].

Such potential quislings among BiH Croats are encouraged to get involved in such undemocratic and immoral practice by two factors. First, the power-positions bring some social, political, material and financial benefits. Second, they believe, or claim to believe, that it is impossible to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the percentage of Croat vote, given to one party, is higher than the percentage of Serb, or ‘the Others” vote given to the same party. They tend to use the insufficiencies inherent in the Election Law as a cover to disguise their own illegitimacy within the political community they quasi-represent.

However, it is feasible to establish (within a statistically permissible range of deviation) which party or political candidate are backed by Croat electoral legitimacy, and which are not. This cannot be established by a mere counting of ballots, but by blending the net election results per locations with the census through some methods of probability calculus. Such post-election analyses will be conducted and published by the Institute of Social Political Research (IDPI), Mostar, in order to offer a clear answer to the question of which parties or candidates, and to what degree, are indeed backed by BiH Croat voter population, and which are not.

Ivan Vukoja is a member of the Institute of Social Political Research (IDPI) research team and editor of the journal ‘Status’ (Mostar).

The Institute of Social Political Research (IDPI) is a member of the Global Coalition for Conflict Transformation.This article was translated by Dražen Pehar.

Footnotes

1) Kasapović, M. (2005), Bosna i Hercegovina – podijeljeno društvo i nestabilna država (Bosnia-Herzegovina – a divided society and unstable state), Zagreb: Politička kultura

2) See http://www.en.idpi.ba/european-parliament-resolution-on-bosnia-and-herzegovina/ (accessed on October 12 2014)

3) On this report, see http://www.en.idpi.ba/icg/ (IDPI research team, Mostar, 28 July 2014) (accessed on October 12 2014)

4) For more on this, see Vukoja, Ivan (2013), “Primjeri ne-konstitutivnosti i ne-jednakopravnosti Hrvata u Federaciji BiH (The cases of non-constituent status and inequality of Croats in the BiH Federation)”, Status 16, pp. 92.-106

5) At that time the House of Peoples of the BiH Federation was a house to the representatives of the other peoples too; however, their number was determined by the number of representatives from cantonal legislations who did not declare their affiliation with Bosniaks or Croats, hence by the ratio to the Bosniak and Croat representation at those legislations, which was then applied to the total number of 60+X seats (Croat plus Bosniak representatives plus ‘others’) at the House of Peoples. This is also another indicator of the fact that the BiH Federation was originally outlined and implemented as a Bosniak-Croat entity.

6) In contrast to the clubs of constituent peoples that are composed of 17 members each, the club of the Others has 7 members.

7) This was a temporary suspension of the decision, but such a temporary status continued till today and will obviously continue into the post-2014 election period. Hence, the term ‘suspension’ (by Valentin Inzko) should really be taken as somewhat cynical.

8) Fore more on this, see Pehar, Dražen (2014), “Democracy, democratic representation, and constitutional logic of ethnic electoral units in Bosnia-Herzegovina,” Institute for Social-Political Research (IDPI) Mostar.

The post Elections As Form Of Discrimination Against Croats In Bosnia-Herzegovina – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Bangladeshi government should set 18 as the minimum age for marriage to comply with international prohibitions against child marriage, Human Rights Watch said. Recent media reports indicate the prime minister’s cabinet is considering a revision to the law to make 16 the minimum age of marriage for girls. The minimum age for men would be 18.

The proposed revisions would reverse stated government aims to reduce child marriage among girls, Human Rights Watch said. At the July 2014 Girl Summit in London, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina pledged to take steps to reduce, and ultimately end, child marriage in Bangladesh. She committed, by 2021, to end marriage for girls under age 15 and reduce by more than one-third the number of girls between ages 15 and 18 who marry. Bangladesh pledged to end all child marriage by 2041. The government also committed to develop a national plan of action on child marriage before 2015, and take other steps to change social norms and engage civil society in the fight against child marriage.

“Setting the age of marriage for girls in Bangladesh at 16 would be a terrible step in the wrong direction,” said Liesl Gerntholtz, women’s rights director at Human Rights Watch. “The rate of child marriage in Bangladesh is already off the charts. The new law should set the minimum age of marriage at 18 for both women and men and put the best interests of children at the center of all of its provisions.”

Bangladesh has the second-highest rate of child marriage in the world, second only to Niger, according to the United Nations children’s agency, UNICEF. About 74 percent of Bangladeshi women currently aged 20 to 49 were married or in a union before age 18, despite a minimum legal marriage age for women of 18. International law prohibiting gender discrimination requires that the age of marriage be the same for both women and men, and evolving international standards set 18 as the minimum age.

The Convention on the Rights of the Child, which Bangladesh ratified in 1990, defines a child as anyone under age 18. In 2009 the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child strongly recommended that Bangladesh, “Take necessary measures to define the child as any person below 18 years old” in accordance with the Convention on the Rights of the Child. A new Children’s Act passed in Bangladesh in 2013 that dealt with the rights of children who are crime victims or are in conflict with the law, set the age of adulthood at 18 for both girls and boys for the purpose of that act.

The 1929 Child Marriage Restraint Act (CMRA) made it a criminal offense to marry, or facilitate the marriage of, a girl under 18 or a man or boy under 21, but the law has rarely been enforced, Human Rights Watch said. Many of its provisions are now outdated – including the 1,000 Taka (about US$13) fine imposed as punishment for marrying or facilitating the marriage of a child – despite a 1984 revision of the law.

The government showed an earlier draft of the proposed CMRA to civil society organizations in Bangladesh last spring, but subsequent drafts have not been publicly shared. A number of activists have spoken out in opposition to the government proposal to lower the age of marriage.

The government, working with UNICEF, has taken steps to begin the development of a national plan of action on child marriage. The plan of action on child marriage is intended to inform the government’s next five-year plan, which will be formulated next year.

“The Bangladeshi government’s promised efforts to end child marriage are encouraging, but these steps need the participation of affected women and activist groups,” Gerntholtz said. “The government should consult closely at every stage with the groups, who have a wealth of knowledge about protecting women and girls, to develop a new law and a national plan of action.”

The CMRA, as amended in 1984, places the burden on the courts to prevent and punish child marriage through injunctions and criminal sanctions. Bangladesh has taken other important initiatives to prevent child marriage, such as expanding birth registration, the use of national identification cards, and girls’ access to education through a stipend program. Significant gaps remain, however, in terms of both civil and criminal law measures to prevent and punish child marriage, and to more effectively enforce existing laws than in the past.

The CMRA also does not provide for social support to prevent child marriage and assist women and girls (and men and boys) who have been the victims of child marriage. The revised CMRA should include measures to increase prevention efforts, including public awareness programming, enforcing universal mandatory birth registration, establishing and enforcing universal marriage registration, and further strengthening access to education and education retention programs for girls. It should also provide both social and legal assistance to child and adult victims of child marriage. Criminal justice and local government officials should receive training on child marriage and their roles in preventing it and responding to violations of the law.

“Bangladesh should take the opportunity to learn from countries around the world that have successfully tackled child marriage,” Gerntholtz said. “The Bangladeshi government should pass a new Child Marriage Restraint Act that empowers girls to delay marriage, resist unwanted marriage, and be recognized in society for their value as individuals, not just as brides.”

The post Call For Bangladesh To Not Lower Marriage Age appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Thousands of northerners who experienced human rights abuses during the occupation of Mali’s north are struggling to find redress amidst concerns that a climate of impunity is continuing and the government’s control in many areas of the north is at best shaky.

People in the north were exposed to forced disappearances, torture, summary executions and sexual abuse, with most of the offences committed after March 2012 when Islamist extremists occupied large parts of territory.

Investigations begin, but hesitantly

“Investigations into crimes committed during the occupation and its aftermath have just started,” said Guillaume Ngefa, head of the human rights division within MINUSMA, the UN’s Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali. “While judges and prosecutors are stalled by an instable security situation in the north many victims have not been given adequate legal assistance or access to the judiciary,” Ngefa continued.

The arrival of occupying forces in March 2012 triggered the exodus of thousands of people fleeing south or into neighbouring countries. Those who remained were subjected to a harsh form of Sharia, or Islamic law. Punishment for crimes like theft and adultery included arbitrary detentions, whippings, amputations and even death. Women were particularly targeted, facing beatings and arrests for not wearing a veil. The armed groups also enrolled children as fighters.

The legacy of occupation

When President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came into office in September 2013, he promised to address crimes committed during the occupation and to put an end to a long culture of impunity.

But there is a huge backlog of cases to deal with. “We have documented more than 500 cases of violations in the north since the conflict started in January 2012”, said Saloum Traoré, head of Amnesty International (AI) in Mali. AI, the Malian Association for Human Rights (AMDH) and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have between them registered hundreds of cases of sexual abuse, amputations and summary executions.

The caseload includes the executions of over 150 Malian government soldiers at Aguelhoc, allegedly by the separatist National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, (MNLA), in collaboration with its then ally, Ansar Dine, in January 2012. The MNLA has fiercely denied any involvement in the Aguelhok. But the MNLA’s forces are also accused of acts of sexual violence and recruiting children into armed groups.

Drissa Traoré, a legal officer in the AMDH’s Bamako officer referred to 50 cases of rape allegedly committed by the MNLA. Senior Islamists, including Islamist police chief in Gao, Aliou Mahamatou Touré, and his counterpart in Timbuktu ,Houka Houka have been the object of complaints.

South of the occupied areas, AI and AMDH point to cases reported from villages in the Mopti area, which hosted large communities of displaced northerners.

Legal machinery still not in place

While the government and specifically its Ministry of Defense acknowledges that crimes committed during the conflict need to be addressed, exactly how and when this will happen is not yet clear.
Several families of victims have sought justice for the loss of or injury to family members, a majority with the help of local lawyers. More than 30 families have filed complaints and missing person reports with the police and gendarmerie, as well as written letters to prosecutors detailing crimes, according to AMDH.

But the legal mechanics are complicated. Observers highlight deficiencies in the Malian legal system, which lacks sufficient numbers of judges, prosecutors and forensic experts, and is hampered by logistical and financial constraints. Cases often need testimony from witnesses delivered to official investigators, but this is not easy to obtain at present.

“Continued clashes and insecurity make it difficult for judges and forensic experts to travel to the north to conduct investigations”, Guillaume Ngefa said. Security conditions remain difficult. The north is stabilized by a UN peacekeeping force and around 1,000 French troops, though attacks still occur in many of the northern areas where the abuses occurred. On October 3, nine UN peacekeepers were killed and three wounded in a roadside bomb in Kidal. This brought the number of UN peacekeepers in Mali killed since MINUSMA took over from the African Union force AFISMA in July last year to 30.

Where are the courts?

Mali’s Justice Ministry has deployed mobile information clinics in the north to gather victim testimony and provide some level of victim support. In principle, cases reported will be referred directly to courts in the north for prosecution, but those courts are not yet up and running. When AMDH prepared cases against members of the Islamic police in Gao and Timbuktu, witnesses had to go south to Bamako, which hosts the court assigned to handle crimes committed in the north.

Support to those seeking justice is available from several international and national NGOs involved in pursuing human rights violations. But there is little funding for follow up action and the bringing of court cases. Legal costs are prohibitively high for most Malians. It often falls to individuals to track cases with the local authorities.

Soldiers face questions too

Concerns on human rights violations are not confined to the north and the alleged perpetrators are not exclusively jihadist and separatist fighters. In November 2013 AMDH filed its first case representing 23 victims of violations allegedly committed by the Malian armed forces following a military coup in the capital Bamako in March 2012 which saw rival army factions pitted against each other.

HRW has collected testimonies implicating Malian soldiers in serious abuses. The Malian authorities have promised to take action where appropriate. But Corinne Dufka, senior West Africa researcher with HRW, warned that only a few cases had led to further investigations, and none of those allegedly responsible for exactions brought to justice.

AMDH President Moctar Mariko warned of instances where civilians had either disappeared or been taken by the Malian armed forces. “Questions by family members as to the whereabouts of their relatives were ignored or left unanswered. Others were afraid to even ask,” Mariko said.

Alou Namfe, a government prosecutor assigned to handle crimes committed during the occupation of the north criticised the inaction shown by both the courts and the gendarmerie in grappling with offences. “Judicial officers requesting the gendarmerie to investigate certain conflict-related crimes have been ignored and complaints filed with the courts so far have not been acted upon,” Namfe warned.

Arrest does not mean prosecution

However, some action has been taken, albeit with mixed results. According to figures from the Malian authorities, since January 2013 at least 495 men believed to be members of the armed groups have been arrested; but up to 300 of the same men have since been released. In some cases, investigators were unable to confirm their identity or affiliation with the fighting factions. Others were release in prisoner exchanges between the armed groups and the Bamako government. Former Timbuktu police boss Houka Houka was amongst those let go. There are reports of many other involved in the Islamist occupation simply leaving the country.

Alou Namfe is frustrated by the lack of justice. “There are cases where witnesses and victims have testified and the prosecutor has opened a case, and still the offender is released,” Namfe pointed out.
Guillaume Ngefa saw hope for change. “The problem of impunity dates back to the independence from France over 60 years ago”, Ngefa explained. “Previous peace agreements have struggled to look into the question of human rights; in some cases the offenders were never tried. This time I believe there is a political will to deal with crimes committed during the armed conflict.”

Moctar Mariko said the guilty should not evade justice. “We are worried that the big fish, the commanders responsible for these actions, will be released while others remain in jail.” Mariko stressed the courts had a job to do. “Prisoners should not be released before the judiciary has had time to finish their investigations.”

The north remains vulnerable

There is concern too about a new chapter of violence in the north. Complaints of human rights violations and the systematic victimisation of Tuareg and Arabs helped fuel the rebellion that broke out in January 2012. Human rights activists warn that the actions of small groups of Jihadists, staging attacks and ambushes in the north, will lead to new waves of reprisals from the Malian military, with Tuaregs and Arabs again targeted indiscriminately. On 24 September a group of Tuareg men were detained by members of AQMI, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in the region of Kidal. The men were accused of being informers to the French forces. A couple of days later villagers found the head of one of the men at a stall in the local market.

“In many cases… the population and the justice know where the offenders are but are reluctant to give them up, especially if they are from the same ethnic group. If there is no justice, others might seek revenge,” said Mariko.

The post No Justice, No Peace For Northern Mali – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A total of 334 Saudi militants have rejoined terrorist groups after they were released from prisons or passed out from Prince Mohammed bin Naif Counseling Center in Jeddah, an official source told Makkah newspaper.

As many as 1,696 individuals have benefited from the center’s 112 courses that encourage militants to mend their ways and become good citizens.

“Among the Guantanamo Bay returnees, 120 have benefited from the center’s programs,” said the source, adding that nearly 20 percent of them have returned back to militancy.

The center’s courses include lessons in English, economics, history, politics, psychological and social matters, and art. “Inmates are allowed to read selected books,” the source said.

“Books of certain authors have been banned because of their extremist content,” he said.

Capacity building programs would enable the center’s graduates to lead a normal life, he added.

The post Saudi Arabia: 334 ‘Reformed’ Militants Return To Terror appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Maksim Tsurkov

The Azerbaijani and Russian defense ministries signed a cooperation plan for 2015 in Baku Oct. 13.

The document was signed by Azerbaijani and Russian Defense Ministers Zakir Hasanov and Sergei Shoigu.

“The document envisages the military-technical cooperation, joint military exercises and training of qualified personnel in the field of defense,” Hasanov said at the signing ceremony.

According to the plan, in 2015 Azerbaijani servicemen will be sent for training to the Russian military schools, while Russian servicemen – to the corresponding schools of Azerbaijan.

“Special attention is paid to the regional security, in particular in the Caspian Sea,” he said. “According to the plan, the joint military exercises – command-staff and strategic will be held between the Navies of Russia and Azerbaijan in 2015.”

“According to the plan, Azerbaijan is expected to purchase the Russian-made modern military weapons and equipment in accordance with the state program on providing the army with weapons,” he said.

Shoigu thanked his Azerbaijani counterpart for the invitation. He said that Azerbaijan and Russia established very strong partnership in all spheres, particularly in the military area.

“High-level meetings held in Astrakhan and Minsk testify to this,” Shoigu said.

He expressed the hope that further cooperation will be also fruitful and the signed plan will be the basis of this cooperation.

The sides also exchanged views on the current situation in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine.

The post Azerbaijan To Purchase Modern Military Weapons From Russia appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ritu Sharma

Christian and Muslim leaders lashed out Monday after India’s minister for social justice said the government would not be granting job reservation rights to “untouchables” who converted.

In remarks published Friday in India’s local media, Minister Thavar Chand Gehlot said the newly installed government considered the ongoing fight for equal rights illogical.

“They left the Hindu fold to escape the scourge of untouchability as it did not exist [in Islam and Christianity]. The conversion has solved the problems they faced as Hindus so they should not ask for Scheduled Caste status,” he said.

In order to improve their social standing, dalits, or untouchables, have constitutionally guaranteed “reservation rights” allowing them access to particular government jobs, and seats in educational institutions.

Christian and Muslim dalits have been fighting for the preferential access given to their Hindu counterparts since 1950, when a presidential decree denied the rights to non-Hindus saying caste is a Hindu phenomenon. It was later modified to include Sikhs and Buddhists, but continues to exclude Christians and Muslims.

The minister’s statement is “sheer discrimination against the Christians and Muslims,” Samuel Jayakumar of the National Council of Churches in India, told ucanews.com on Monday.

“Why is the government so insecure of religious conversions? The government is for the whole country and not for protecting a particular religion.”

Jayakumar and other leaders said they fear this statement will be echoed by judges considering a long pending case in India’s Supreme Court. The complaint was filed in 2004 by Christian dalit rights groups who argue that caste is a socio-economic reality that does not change with conversion.

“The government is scared of granting us dalit status. Christians and Muslims were removed from the list after pressure from Hindu nationalist forces in 1950,” Hafiz Ahmed Hawari, head of the All India Jamait-ul Hawari, told ucanews.com.

Father Z. Devasagaya Raj, secretary of the office for dalits and backward classes of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of India, refuted the minister’s claim that conversion erased the difficulties.

“They are even discriminated by others in the Christian community,” he pointed out.

Christian leaders estimate that at least half of India’s 23 million Christians are of dalit origin.

The post India: Anger As Minister Says Christian, Muslim Dalits Should Be Denied Job Quotas appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Up to 200,000 explicit photos obtained from Snapchat users have been published online.

Hackers got into Snapchat’s system using a third party app, and the images have now been circulated, Digital Spy reports citing The Guardian.

Users on the 4Chan forum, where numerous celebrity leaks have been posted, claimed that they got into Snapchat’s system using third-party app Snapsave, which enables Snapchat users to screenshot the images they receive in order to keep pictures which would otherwise expire.

The hackers had threatened to publish the images on Saturday (October 11), saying that they had saved users’ login details from the third party app and stored images over a number of years.

“We can confirm that Snapchat’s servers were never breached and were not the source of these leaks,” the company said in a statement issued over the weekend.

“Snapchatters were victimised by their use of third party apps to send and receive Snaps, a practice that we explicitly prohibit in our terms of use precisely because they compromise our users’ security.”

It is suspected that those behind the circulation of explicit Snapchat images are also responsible for the leaks of nude photos taken by hundreds of celebrities, including Oscar-winning actress Jennifer Lawrence.

Lawrence recently described the leaking of intimate and personal photographs as “a sex crime”, and said that anyone seeking out such images online “should cower with shame”.

More recent celebrity victims of nude photo leaks have included Doctor Who actor Matt Smith and former girlfriend Daisy Lowe.

In January, a Snapchat hack saw around 4.6 million usernames and phone numbers leaked online due to a security loophole in the popular messaging service.

The post Hackers Leak 200,000 Personal Snapchat Photos Following Threats appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In two months, Russia is planning to send a new experimental vaccine against Ebola to Africa, according to the country’s health minister. The efficiency of the drug, which is to be tested on the ground, is about 70-90 percent.

“Today we are discussing that we will have enough of Triazoverin vaccine in two months so that we can send them to our personnel in Guinea and test its efficiency in clinical conditions,” Health Minister Veronika Skvortsova said.

The vaccine has so far proved efficient against various hemorrhagic fevers, including the Marburg virus which is very similar to Ebola.

“The efficiency ranges between 70 and 90 percent and this is a very good indicator,” Skvortsova said.

Russia’ Virology Institute is preparing a whole group of drugs.

“They are basically genetically engineered drugs which can work both for disease treatment and prevention,” Skvortsova said.
Russian virologists, who have set up a laboratory in Guinea, are preparing to test the vaccine on primates.

“The vaccine we have produced is made from the attenuated strains [of the virus]. We now have enough to repeat the experiment on the primates and proceed to clinical trials.”

On Sunday, Skvortsova announced that Russian scientists are working on three potential Ebola vaccines which they expect to introduce as soon as in the next six months.

“We have created three vaccines,” she said in an interview with Rossiya-1 TV. “One vaccine is based on a strain of Ebola, and the other two have been created by means of genetic engineering.”

As of October 8, a total of 4,033 people had died from the Ebola outbreak, out of a total of 8,399 registered cases in seven countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported. For now, Liberia is the worst-hit with 4,076 cases and 2,316 deaths. It is followed by Sierra Leone, where there are 2,950 cases and 930 deaths.

According to the WHO, the fatality rate associated with Ebola averages roughly 50 percent, but has ranged from 25 percent to 90 percent in past outbreaks.

The post Russia To Send Ebola Vaccine To West Africa appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Parkinson’s disease is strongly linked to the degeneration of the brain’s movement center. In the last decade, the question of where the disease begins has led researchers to a different part of the human anatomy.

In 2003, the German neuropathologist Heiko Braak presented a theory suggesting that the disease begins in the gut and spreads to the brain. The idea has since, despite vocal critics, gained a lot of ground. Researchers at Lund University in Sweden now present the first direct evidence that the disease can actually migrate from the gut to the brain.

The so-called Braak’s hypothesis proposes that the disease process begins in the digestive tract and in the brain’s center of smell. The theory is supported by the fact that symptoms associated with digestion and smell occur very early on in the disease.

Researchers at Lund University have previously mapped the spread of Parkinson’s in the brain. The disease progression is believed to be driven by a misfolded protein that clumps together and “infects” neighboring cells.

Professor Jia-Yi Li’s research team has now been able to track this process further, from the gut to the brain in rat models. The experiment shows how the toxic protein, alpha-synuclein, is transported from one cell to another before ultimately reaching the brain’s movement center, giving rise to the characteristic movement disorders in Parkinson’s disease.

“We have now been able to prove that the disease process actually can travel from the peripheral nervous system to the central nervous system, in this case from the wall of the gut to the brain. In the longer term, this may give us new therapeutic targets to try to slow or stop the disease at an earlier stage”, says Professor Jia-Yi Li, research group leader for Neural Plasticity and Repair at Lund University.

The research team will now carry out further studies in which the mechanisms behind the transport of the harmful protein will be examined in detail. The current study suggests that the protein is transferred during nerve cell communication. It is at this point of interaction that the researchers want to intervene in order to put a stop to the further spread of the disease.

The post Disputed Theory On Parkinson’s Origin Strengthened appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The 2014 Nobel Prize In Economics has been awarded to Jean Tirole “for his analysis of market power and regulation”.

Before Tirole, researchers and policymakers sought general principles for all industries, the Academy said.

“Tirole showed theoretically that such rules may work well in certain conditions, but do more harm than good in others. Price caps can provide dominant firms with strong motives to reduce costs – a good thing for society – but may also permit excessive profits – a bad thing for society. Cooperation on price setting within a market is usually harmful, but cooperation regarding patent pools can benefit everyone. The merger of a firm and its supplier may encourage innovation, but may also distort competition.”

The best regulation or competition policy should therefore be carefully adapted to every industry’s specific conditions, the Academy said.

Jean Tirole, born August 9, 1953, is a French professor of economics, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics for his analysis in Market Power.

He works on industrial organization, game theory, banking and finance, and economics and psychology. Tirole is chairman of the board of the Jean-Jacques Laffont Foundation at the Toulouse School of Economics, scientific director of the Industrial Economics Institute (IDEI) in Toulouse and founding member of the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).

After receiving his PhD from MIT in 1981, he worked as a researcher at l’École nationale des ponts et chaussées until 1984. From 1984-1991 he worked as a Professor of Economics at MIT. He was president of the Econometric Society in 1998 and of the European Economic Association in 2001. He is still affiliated with MIT, where he holds a visiting position and is a member of the “Académie des Sciences morales et politiques” since 2011. He won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2014.

The post The 2014 Nobel Prize In Economics Awarded To Jean Tirole appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A world authority on the link between human exposure to aluminium in everyday life and its likely contribution to Alzheimer’s disease, Professor Christopher Exley of Keele University, UK, says in a new report that it may be inevitable that aluminium plays some role in the disease.

He says the human brain is both a target and a sink for aluminium on entry into the body – “the presence of aluminium in the human brain should be a red flag alerting us all to the potential dangers of the aluminium age. We are all accumulating a known neurotoxin in our brain from our conception to our death. Why do we treat this inevitability with almost total complacency?”

Exley, Professor in Bioinorganic Chemistry, Aluminium and Silicon Research Group in The Birchall Centre, Lennard-Jones Laboratories at Keele University, writes in Frontiers in Neurology about the ‘Aluminium Age’ and its role in the ‘contamination’ of humans by aluminium.

He says a burgeoning body burden of aluminium is an inevitable consequence of modern living and this can be thought of as ‘contamination’, as the aluminium in our bodies is of no benefit to us it can only be benign or toxic.

Professor Exley says: “The biological availability of aluminium or the ease with which aluminium reacts with human biochemistry means that aluminium in the body is unlikely to be benign, though it may appear as such due to the inherent robustness of human physiology. The question is raised as to ‘how do you know if you are suffering from chronic aluminium toxicity?’ How do we know that Alzheimer’s disease is not the manifestation of chronic aluminium toxicity in humans?

“At some point in time the accumulation of aluminium in the brain will achieve a toxic threshold and a specific neurone or area of the brain will stop coping with the presence of aluminium and will start reacting to its presence. If the same neurone or brain tissue is also suffering other insults, or another on-going degenerative condition, then the additional response to aluminium will exacerbate these effects. In this way aluminium may cause a particular condition to be more aggressive and perhaps to have an earlier onset – such occurrences have already been shown in Alzheimer’s disease related to environmental and occupational exposure to aluminium.”

Professor Exley argues that the accumulation of aluminium in the brain inevitably leads to it contributing negatively to brain physiology and therefore exacerbating on-going conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease. He suggests that this is a testable hypothesis and offers a non-invasive method of the removal of aluminium from the body and the brain. He says the aluminium hypothesis of Alzheimer’s disease will only be tested if we are able to lower the body and hence brain burden of aluminium and determine if such has any impact upon the incidence, onset or aggressiveness of Alzheimer’s disease.

Professor Exley adds: “There are neither cures nor effective treatments for Alzheimer’s disease. The role of aluminium in Alzheimer’s disease can be prevented by reducing human exposure to aluminium and by removing aluminium from the body by non-invasive means. Why are we choosing to miss out on this opportunity? Surely the time has come to test the aluminium hypothesis of Alzheimer’s disease once and for all?”

The post Aluminium And Its Likely Contribution To Alzheimer’s Disease appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Violeta Allmuca

When you try to find a work that is sensitive in the realm of visual arts is the same thing as when you try to enjoy aesthetically that particular art work, whether it is a literary, musical, a painting or simply a visual arts, right there where all young artists begin with their own style to enter in the open house of creating values.

I have to be self-conscious when writing something for a member of the young generation, a topic which becomes difficult due to the absence of scholarly reference, but also because they have to be supported in every way possible in order to find an opportunity to intertwine the new values in visual arts. It just happens that TV channels, written media and Newspapers continue to promote all sorts of artists and senseless coverage of art galleries, among these events there are only a few artists like Igli Qosha who deserve a greater public attention. Qosha has received many accolades and an art analysis on his work is unique and significantly different among many other artists. Lively experiences rarely are matched with art canvases, portraits or even the personages who are imaginatively roving in the minds of the viewers and extended towards the walls of imaginations in visual arts.

The way how a new creative spirit of a painter is revealed with his great work, is the same as placing in a canvas those landscapes with colors that interpret in them a unique example of an artist enjoying freedom of creation.

It is even truer for the young visual artist Igli Qoshja, who brings with his work not only the past, but also the present and its transformation into the future. The artistic characters of this painter come today in a new way, being introduced in public and materialized from the familiar or the unknown with a new creative approach. The essence of the views, the infinite space where everything touches upon the colors, the appearance before and after the light, on a place in the sky, deepened from the colors just like adopting lucid clearance from the daily present times.

The lively vision of colorful works emerges, not only by dreaming the past but by also embracing the infinite time of the artist where is engraved every work that looks original and synergized with the modern aspirations of the painter Igli Qoshja. He brings in a painting the imaginary at the same level as the art in itself, in the figures introduced with the language of colors. The eruption of his feelings in a sensitive world, shifts from the works of the past with a shape where visual art as a value, brings in the structure of painting many layers of creation where there are connected three sequential times.

This is why, in this painter as you are viewing his works, there is always an inspiration when the early history of Albanians appears, symbols and their myths, where the voice of freedom is being heard, the resistance of ancestors, the bridge of unity with today through the immense love for life. Originality, colors thrown over the paintings create the core, movement and artistic skills of Igli Qoshja. The substance of every painting from the lively to the tangent art is a challenge for every painter where the human must rein, the body of life, and its core.

While the focus is on the most beautiful elements within the painting, Igli Qoshja selects the stage of space and colors in order to unravel his aspirations. Qoshja all heartedly names the opening of a work in a canvas as something, which appears inspirational even for the viewers of his paintings. The idea to bring colors of life in these paintings, nature and history, accomplishes what we always consider as an aesthetical taste. Painting is just as light, states the young painter. She is expanded just like its creation and is viewed as visual art, the fate of which is destined from the sides of lively experiences. My work is not merely a “decoration” or “imitation” but it is simply original, and a long lasting feeling for the painting.

The communication by a visual work brings at the viewer moments of reflection when the art of colors is created until the infinite space of humans. The role of the creator even though we are speaking about a talented artist, in his works is included large landscape paintings, portraits, pencil graphics, and works in wood carvings. The stages of creation are all heartedly connected with the mission of the genuine artistic work. The style on how to use colors over the canvases filled with abstractionism, where the blue and brown colors bring the contemporary dimension which inspires the artistic thoughts and an art critic. Perhaps these colors which symbolize the sky and the earth are a preference of the new generation of painters who are viewing metaphysics as a deep revelation of the artistic substance? The high quality of new creations without falling into a repetition or being influenced from other works, makes this artist, Igli Qoshja to remain in a high level of creativity, connected with nature, life and men.

The unbelievable and surreal state of mind does not exist in the painting style of this artist. While living today within the future, he always brings optimistic feelings while creating conceptualized figures a traveler of his own time. Deep content of every painting and the respective philosophy remains always as an essential trend of time. Each work of Qoshja appears covered with life with content, and a condition created in an environment of fatherland where he lives. The amalgamation of images is given fully in the first image until the eyes distinguish the beautiful in the paintings of this artist and their chronology is always on the run. Outside space and the inner space create the dimension of colors through the transparent light.

This artist aims to penetrate in the dialectics of colors, blessed ideas, such as love, art, mythology and others. While creating the portraits with a great skills that ought to be admired, just like other painters he creates a continuity, which also reflects his own characteristics. Tradition and civilization excites this young painter who always enters in the inner world of portraits. The art of living his work, composition and colors reveal life, feeling, abstract shape which bring in mind the artistic values of the works.

It would be a challenge in the worlds of every visual artist, if the life of colors would be divided from human life. Color composition in visual art remains a genuine way to shed light and shine the movements of messages which are expressed to us. However the future of Igli Qoshja is an introduction which offers us ranks of works filled with fantasy as well as encompassing the past humanism, towards the movement of the present and future. There are these three times as a sign towards the dreams of memory in this genuine art created by a distinguished Albanian artist.

Translated by Peter Tase

The post Creation Of A Sensitive Art Word: Analysis Of Work Of Igli Qoshja appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Human rights violations in North Korea have dented the country’s image in the world. In February 2014, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights headed by the Australian judge Michael Kirby in a report indicted the North Korean regime by observing that “the case of human rights in the DPRK exceeds all others in duration, intensity and horror”. The report based on defectors’ account, found that North Korea was committing “unspeakable atrocities” against its own people on a vast scale, holding tens of thousands of people in prison camps. The release of the report put clearly North Korea in the defensive as it tries to engage with the outside world following strained ties with China, its most important ally.

Earlier, North Korea had reacted to the report by denying that no such violations are taking place and that no labor camps existed. But in the first week of October, senior North Korean official publicly acknowledged for the first time to the international community the existence of labour camps in North Korea. After its relations with China, its foremost ally, strained over the nuclear issue, the North Korean regime has launched a diplomatic overdrive to reach out to Japan, South Korea and Europe and dispatching senior officials to the capital of important countries seeking engagement. Its acknowledgment of the reform camps were signs that Pyongyang now realizes the discussion of its human rights record would not fade away easily, especially after the release of Kirby report. Its earlier strategic approach to human rights was simply to ignore, while continuing its nuclear program, missile launches and other military provocations. The mention of its existence, the first time of such acknowledgment, is a modest step to reach out to the outside world. It is believed that North’s system of political camps is estimated to hold 120,000 people.

In one of its diplomatic outreach initiatives, diplomats of the reclusive and impoverished country visited the headquarters of the European Union in early October and expressed interest in dialogue, and discussions on human rights. Such dialogue may take place sometime in early 2015. Though North Korea’s deputy UN Ambassador Ri Tong Il confirmed that the secretary of his country’s ruling Workers’ Party had visited the EU and it was confirmed by an EU official in Brussels that the meeting with the EU’s top human rights official Stavros Lambrinidis did take place, the current dialogue is expected to remain limited to rights issue. If progress is made, human rights dialogue will be next on the agenda.

The manner North Korean officials are making statements and giving explanation on the issue of human rights makes confusing reading. For example, Choe Myong-nam, a North Korean Foreign Ministry official in charge of UN affairs and human rights issue denied that North Korea has any prison camps but admitted to the existence of “reform through labor” camps. Defending his country’s socio-political system against “external forces”, he said: “Both in law and practice, we do have reform through labor detention camps – no, detention centers – where people are improved through their mentality and look on their wrongdoings.” Though much “re-education” labor camps are for common offenders and some political prisoners, most political prisoners are held in a harsher system of political prison camps. In his view, things are good but can improve and “the enjoyment of the people will be further expanded”. Optimists would take the view that Choe’s presence at the UN might be a sign that North Korea is on the threshold of great changes but it is just not that easy to take that position so quickly.

North Korea claims that it is not opposed to human rights dialogue so long as the issue is not used as “tool for interference”. This modest admission of the existence of labor camps was to arrest some of the country’s image that was dented when the UN commission of inquiry report concluded the authoritarian government had committed crimes against humanity. The North’s own report on its human rights system accuses the US and its allies of conspiring to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. The report in its preface charges the US of trying to overthrow the North’s social system and ideology chosen by the Korean people by fabricating “human rights issue” and “mislead international opinions”.

Pyongyang now admits that the country is in transition period, during which, it is justified, some adjustment in the economic area may be causing inconvenience to some people. The government, it claims, is laboring hard “to establish more houses and social facilities in order to provide people with better living conditions”. It blames “external forces”, in an apparent reference to the stringent international sanctions the country faces as a result of its repeated nuclear and ballistic missile tests in recent years, affecting negatively to its efforts to improve economically.

Even China, North’s only ally, maintained such labor camps but decided in 2013 to abolish such “re-education through labor” camps, releasing tens of thousands of detainees, four years after the UN criticized those camps as an “urgent human rights concern”. China maintained such a system since the Mao era of the 1950s, based on the Marxist theory that truth is subject to the power relations of social and economic conditions. That theory is now discredited. It used to claim that individuals are victims of power forces and not able to discern truth or claim individual rights. It meant if a person spoke contrary to the Communist Party or acts in opposition, the best way to rid such person of such behavior were to force the person to do manual labor, as millions were made to do in China. That system, China has discarded now. China has, however, other ways of jailing dissidents or political activists.

Choe did not admit to political prisons. According to Greg Scarlatoiu of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, the new position taken by North Korea after the publication of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea early in 2014 is an indirect admission to their existence and therefore should be considered a “small step in the right direction”. The international community has now opportunities to start building on this direct official admission. It cannot be overlooked, however, that the North officially sentenced American citizens Kenneth Bae and Matthew Miller to “labor reform” camps, and not made a secret of their existence.

In fact, based on satellite imagery, a South Korean lawmaker recently claimed that the total area of North Korea’s concentration camps where political prisoners are held, is twice the size of Seoul. South Korean Yonhap News Agency quoted Yoon Sang-hyun, a member of the ruling Saenuri Party having observed: “Based on material from research institutes at home and abroad and the analysis of satellite imagery, the total area of North Korea’s five prison camps was found to be 1,247.9 square kilometres. This amounts to twice the area of Seoul, which is 605.2 square kilometres.” This revelation came around the time when Choe was facing tough questions in the UN where he officially conceded to the fact that North Korea is indeed home to hundreds of thousands of prisoners. The reclusive country is accused by the international community of holding the prisoners in the camps as part of efforts to suppress opposition and preserve its communist regime.

According to a report published in June by the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification, North Korea is believed to hold 80,000-120,000 prisoners in a total of five concentration camps located across the country. The report was based on interviews with North Korean defectors in the South. Yonhap News Agency also reported that the lawmaker added one monstrous prison camp located in Yodok in the eastern South Hamgyong Province of North Korea has the area of 551.6 sq km and occupies 40% of the Yodok area. He observed and Yonhap quotes: “Concentration camps for political prisoners are the pinnacle of the reign of terror, which carries out the worst violations of human rights”. He urged the international community to step up reporting and monitoring efforts aimed at dismantling North Korea’s concentration camps.
Does the admission of the existence of “re-education” labor camps by Pyongyang mean a hint at change and a possible rejection of Marxist notions about truth being subject only to the power relations of economic and social conditions? What does ‘re-education’ labor camps mean? These are prisons where people possessing views not compatible with the establishment/regime are sent without charge or trial to work under horrific conditions for the state. The five main camps were set up based on a communist belief that hard labour could alter a person’s political views and behaviour, ridding them of “false consciousness.” The truism is that many of the prisoners do not survive their detention. They are often locked away, often for the smallest sign of disloyalty. Beatings and executions are common, if the versions of the defectors are to be believed.

Therefore, any change to this system following admission of its existence would be welcome to the international community. It remains unclear however if this small opening of window by open confession will herald change in a big way in the system.

Pyongyang’s present charm offensive needs to be analysed carefully as the regime has reversed such policy in the past after its immediate objectives were met. If Pyongyang is sincere and wants to benefit from engaging the world, it must come clean about the existence of the labour camps and open up the country’s economy through reforms.

Despite tight control on the information system, more numbers of North Koreans are getting exposed to the outside world either through smuggled DVDs or foreign radio broadcasts. They share information about the better life in other countries, especially in South Korea. Such filtering of information will, sooner or later, make them question official propaganda and clamour for freedom. Though the system in China is also not ideal, at least North Korea can follow some of the policy choices that China adopted in the past and benefitted immensely. It would remain unclear if the confession on the existence of the camps is a small step towards larger reforms in the coming years.

Dr. Rajaram Panda is The Japan Foundation Fellow at Reitaku University, Chiba, JAPAN. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com

The post North Korea’s ‘Tacit’ Admission On Human Rights Violation – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Staff from the European Commission, in liaison with the European Central Bank, carried out the second post-programme surveillance visit to Spain on 6-10 October. The European Stability Mechanism participated in the meetings on aspects related to its own Early Warning System.

Macroeconomic situation

Spain’s economic recovery has gathered momentum during 2014, with GDP growing at a faster pace than the euro area average. Growth has been supported by a rise in domestic demand, while the external balance has weakened substantially as a result of a slowdown in export market growth and higher imports. Domestic consumption and investment in equipment are benefitting from growing confidence, employment creation, easier financing conditions and low inflation. Deleveraging in the private sector is continuing.

Despite the positive signs in employment, while unemployment is declining it is still very high at above 24%, and the labour market is characterised by a large share of long-term unemployed, a high youth inactivity rate and significant segmentation across types of contracts.

Public sector debt is still on an upward path, although the government expects it to peak in 2015 at slightly above 100% of GDP provided that the budget deficit targets for the coming years are met. The Commission will assess fiscal policy development in November on the basis of the forthcoming 2015 draft budgetary plan. The large domestic and external debt levels imply further deleveraging needs in the various sectors of the economy, so that its vulnerability to shocks persists.

Financial sector developments

Market indicators of systemic risk in the financial sector have continued to improve reflecting positive trends in global financial markets, in the economy and in the sector itself.

The liquidity situation of Spanish banks has improved further and banks reported increased profits in the first half of 2014. Lower operating and impairment costs more than offset the drag on revenues from shrinking credit volumes.

Meanwhile, banks’ capital levels have been raised further and the stabilisation in asset quality has started to be reflected in a marginal decline in the non-performing loans ratio at system level.

The forthcoming results of the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment will shed further light on the state of the Spanish banking sector and a full assessment is not possible before this data is available.

The restructuring of banks having received state aid is well underway, with burden-sharing exercises completed, although litigation is still ongoing. In June the Commission approved the sale of NCG Banco to Banesco Group, and in July Catalunya Banc was sold to BBVA. In the case of Bankia, after the sale of 7.5% of the government’s stake last February, the privatisation has so far not progressed further.

Completing the restructuring and privatisation of state-owned banks is necessary to put the banking sector on a sound long-term footing. The implementation of savings bank reform needs to be urgently completed. The development of non-bank sources of finance has advanced and new measures aiming at improving banking funding conditions for SME have been introduced. For banks, the main challenge going forward appears to be the pressure on their profits from falling volumes of intermediation.

The maintenance of adequate provisioning levels and capital buffers will be essential in this respect. SAREB’s challenge of divesting its significant asset portfolio while maximising value also remains significant. Moreover, notwithstanding the further stabilisation of the financial sector, vigilance is also required vis-à-vis the possibility of a reversal of recent rises in valuation of Spanish assets in case of a correction in global financial markets.

Progress on structural reforms

The implementation of structural reforms has progressed further over the last six months, although unevenly across policy areas. Recently adopted new initiatives include a revision of the corporate insolvency framework to facilitate corporate debt restructuring and the easing of licencing requirements in retail.

The gradual implementation of the market unity law and the public administration reform continues. Measures are being taken to make active labour market policies more effective in contributing to the reduction in unemployment. This is proving a complex and lengthy process, whose impact on the ground will take time to be felt.

At the same time, there are no further reforms in the pipeline to address the high degree of labour market duality.

A draft tax reform is currently in Parliament. The reform, which is centred on cuts in personal and corporate income taxes, is a first step towards a comprehensive simplification of the tax system but it may complicate the achievement of the budgetary targets going ahead. The independent fiscal institution, AIReF, has started operation, albeit belatedly. Other flagship measures have suffered delays, such as the parliamentary approval of the de-indexation law and, most prominently, the law on professional services and associations, which so far has not even been submitted to Parliament.

Conclusion

The recent economic and financial developments confirm the positive trends of stabilisation that have been unfolding over the last two years. However, it will be important to remain vigilant, as the large imbalances from the pre-crisis period and the related policy challenges in the labour market and beyond are still substantial. Full and effective implementation of the reform agenda and, where needed, its further strengthening, is paramount and often requires joint delivery by various tiers of government, as well as close monitoring of outcomes from the reforms.

The next post-programme surveillance mission will take place in spring 2015.

The post Spain Sees Strong Economic Growth, But Unemployment Still Above 24% appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By C Uday Bhaskar

In a surprise announcement, India’s little-known child rights adherent Kailash Satyarthi and Pakistan’s Malala Yousafzai have together been awarded this year’s prestigious Nobel Peace Prize “for their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education”.

This prize assumes significance not only because this is the first time that the legacy of Mahatma Gandhi (who incidentally did not receive the Nobel) has been acknowledged by the Nobel committee. Concurrently, it is a first for Pakistan, in that a young girl internationally recognized for braving a brutal Taliban attack and who remains committed to education for the girl-child has been awarded the coveted prize.

But this joint award is even more ironically poignant, coming as it does when India and Pakistan are engaged in an intense exchange of ordnance across the contested Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir and heavily guarded International Border. The fact that innocent civilians have been killed on both side underscores the imperative of nurturing peace on the sub-continent despite the revisionist agenda of the ‘deep-state’ in Pakistan.

Kailash Satyarthi has been active in the movement against child labour since the 1990s. His organization Bachpan Bachao Andolan has freed thousands of hapless children from various forms of servitude and helped in their successful re-integration, rehabilitation and education.

The Norwegian Noble committee awarded the peace prize to Kailash Satyarthi for showing great personal courage and strength. The committee noted that Satyarthi followed the great tradition of Mahatma Gandhi and has headed various forms of peaceful protests and demonstrations, focusing on the grave exploitation of children for financial gain. The Committee further added: “His contribution towards the development of important convention on child’s rights is immense.”

In relation to Malala Yousafzai, it was observed that she has shown by personal example that even children and young people can contribute to improving their own situation. It is pertinent to note that Malala has worked under the most dangerous situations and the citation said: “Through her heroic struggle, she has become a leading spokesperson for girls’ right to education.”

An exile of sorts, who cannot return to her country because of the Taliban threat, Malala’s choice for the Peace Prize draws attention to Pakistan’s most severe socio-cultural challenge – that of radical and ideological extremism which, among other inflexible strictures, forbids girls from obtaining education. Malala herself is a victim of such radical extremism and was shot at by the Taliban in 2012 for supporting girl’s education and protesting against curbs imposed by extremist forces.

On the other hand, in India, though gender-equity is not as distorted, the status of children in general and women in particular leaves a lot to be desired. The shameful Nirbhaya case of December 2012 is illustrative. The plight of young children who are forced into employment that often takes the form of servitude bordering on bonded labour is one of India’s glaring omissions. Estimates of the total number of Indian children who are forced into labour vary from 12 to 17 million – and this is deplorable.

Satyarthi symbolizes the quiet one-man crusade against this form of exploitation and hopefully the Nobel prize (despite its incongruous reference to the Hindu-Muslim identity of the awardees) will focus much needed attention and spur a more concerted collective effort in this regard.

The improvement of basic human security indicators which includes a secure future for children and the removal of misplaced cultural taboos that target girls and women is a challenge for large parts of southern Asia. In their respective trajectories, both Satyarthi and Malala have emerged as role-model crusaders for the struggle against suppression of children and young people.

As the guns remain silent and an uneasy peace prevails on the India-Pakistan border, hope for that abiding peace remains elusive. Perhaps it may yet filter through the many tears that scar the faces of the oppressed children of the sub-continent.

That the sub-continent still has a wry sense of humour is summed up in this lighter vein quip from Pakistan doing the cyber rounds:

“When Pakistan is getting its first Nobel Peace Prize, an Indian comes and steals half of it. I’m going to call one half of the 2014 Nobel Peace prize as Azad Nobel Peace Prize and the other half as Indian Held Nobel Peace Prize.”

(C Uday Bhaskar is a strategic analyst and Director, Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in)

The post Nobel Gives Thumbs-Up To Civil Society In Warring Subcontinent – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr. Shamshad Akhtar

Advances in regional connectivity have generated substantial economic and social gains in terms of growth, trade and people to people connections. The global explosion of new technologies, especially in information and communication technologies (ICT), points the way to the next big leap for regional connectivity: an Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway.

The countries of Asia and the Pacific are already well-recognized for their success in structuring cross-border global value chains which, backed by infrastructure corridors, have helped to boost trade within and beyond the region. There is great potential, however, to further deepen connectivity and maximize socio-economic gains, by more effectively integrating ICT across all core infrastructure.

The urgency for this in Asia and the Pacific is apparent from the growing digital divide: in the developing economies of Asia and the Pacific, less than 15 per cent of people have high-speed Internet access. The situation is worse in many of our least developed, landlocked developing and Pacific island countries – where less than 1 per cent of people have broadband connectivity. And for women and girls, regardless of location, level of income, or age, access is lower still.

Official Photo of Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations & Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP Photo/Suwat Chancharoensuk)

Recognizing the significance of ICT in promoting efficiency, productivity and opportunity, the newly-proposed UN sustainable development goals target universal and affordable Internet access for all least developed countries by 2020. By using ICT to augment and enhance connectivity, economies and businesses will be better-equipped to access the benefits of global markets, the Internet can be leveraged to broaden access to education and training, and new tools can be harnessed, such as advanced early-warning systems to better prepare for the natural disasters whose frequency and impact have eroded many of the region’s development gains.

It is imperative for the countries of Asia and the Pacific to more fully benefit from the opportunities of affordable and accessible broadband connections. The way to generate this leap, being deliberated by the member States of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), is the creation of an Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway.

Connecting the Internet backbone of each separate country, into a cohesive ‘meshed’ regional superhighway, will enhance competition in telecommunications markets, and open new opportunities for large-scale investment in fibre optic infrastructure. Seamlessly connecting land- and sea-based fibre networks will lead to economies of scale and lower Internet prices, particularly for the countries and communities who have so-far remained excluded from the advantages of ICT.

The biggest barrier to any new infrastructure is cost. Yet the actual costs of fibre optic materials and conduits are almost negligible. The real challenges are the labour costs of excavation, the costs of securing rights of way, especially across borders, as well as the implicit costs of disruptions and delays in the areas under construction. In OECD countries, for example, these costs together represent an average of between 50-80 per cent of all spending on optical fibre deployment.

ESCAP believes that our region should take a different tack. We boast the world’s widest system of seamless physical connectivity – 143 000 km of the Asian Highway and another 117 000 km of Trans-Asian Railway networks. Cemented by intergovernmental treaties and administered by ESCAP, they offer an unmatched opportunity for ‘co-habitation’ of ICT and transport and other infrastructure networks – synchronizing optical fibre conduit rollout with land transportation construction. Unexpected, yet perfect partners, in building better connectivity.

Apart from cost savings of up to 80 per cent, this ‘dig once – use many times’ approach expands and diversifies the revenues generated by infrastructure construction: a win-win for governments, private sector investors and newly-connected communities.

In partnership with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), ESCAP has recently mapped existing fibre optic infrastructure connectivity in Asia and the Pacific. Our online, interactive map is the first to feature integrated terrestrial and submarine backbone networks, as well as cross-country connections on a single consolidated platform. Our goal is that this will lead to greater coordination between countries, and also between governments and the private sector, in making the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway both a concrete and a virtual reality.

This is also why policymakers from across Asia and the Pacific are convening this week in Bangkok, for the first-ever joint session of ESCAP’s Committees on Information and Communications Technology and on Transport. They will identify best practices to unlock synergies between the ICT and transport sectors. They will also examine the benefits of amending the Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway intergovernmental agreements, building stronger ICT connectivity on the success of the existing cross-border transport networks.

One option will be to include, in the agreements, recommendations that encourage the cohabitation of ICT and Transport infrastructure. The establishment of a group of experts will also be considered, to pave the way for more affordable Internet in the region, based on common principles for cheaper, more efficient and reliable Internet infrastructure – the foundations of the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway.

The time for policy action is now. Our region must capitalize on this opportunity to build the inclusive and sustainable Asia-Pacific we need, taking the next big leap in regional connectivity to ensure future prosperity for all our people.

The author is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Established in 1947 with its headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations for the Asia-Pacific region. ESCAP’s Committees on Information and Communications Technology and on Transport will convene at ESCAP from 14-17 October.

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The Line of Control (LoC) is a dotted line on the map of South Asia, which bisects the Jammu & Kashmir region representing its contested status between India and Pakistan.

About 800 kilometres long, the LoC, which is also termed the Ceasefire Line, originates from the river Tawi near Jammu and ends at the snow-capped mountains in Kargil.

It is amongst one of the most heavily militarised separation barriers of the world. On the ground, it’s a fenced boundary that is entangled with several metres high double-row barbed-wire that passes through valleys and hillocks, mountains and rivulets. Apart from the barbed-wire, the Indian military has installed floodlights, surveillance equipment, seismic imaging devices and audio sensors to monitor any movement in the area. These gadgets are in addition to a round-the-clock patrol maintained by Indian Border Security Force (BSF) personnel.

In the last few weeks, the inviolability of the LoC has been questioned several times. A total of nine Pakistani and eight Indian civilians have reportedly been killed in a fresh escalation of tension on this border. Historically, it’s a soldier’s nightmare and a civilian’s death trap. The blotted history of mistrust and suspicion between India and Pakistan is marked by a poisonous verbosity from hostile politicians and supported by jingoistic national media, all of which has proved itself to be much stronger than ceasefire agreements or the lofty ideal of peaceful co-existence.

Around the world, separation barriers are constructed to limit the movement of people across a region or to separate two populations. The current map of the world depicts an alarming increase in these fences, though, a few of them are strategically important. Jammu & Kashmir’s split-up is deemed a nuclear flashpoint, as Pakistan and India are nuclear states.

The installation of a security barricade is stimulated by a sense of protection. Yet, the human implication of such manoeuvre in conflict-ridden area is irreparable.

The civilian population was there before the military barrier was installed. Though, a major part of the LoC is covered by forest blocks and hilly terrain that runs through a mountainous region, some of its locations present a typical picture of division of cultivable land; a peasant’s house in India and his arable land in Pakistan.

Political impulsiveness, instability and the mercurial nature of geo-political relations amongst neighbouring states in the whole South Asian region has always proved to be a catalyst for increased tension on the LoC. The temperament of forces deployed here is guided and goaded by political happenings in the region. In recent months, there has been a growing debate in Pakistan that instability of political setup in the country is causing disturbance along the LoC.

However, there is another exclamation in Pakistan that Indian government is working behind the scenes to implement its agenda of downsizing the role of separatist elements in electoral politics of the disputed region. Also, an atmosphere of aggressiveness can divert public outcry from the administrative failure in the aftermath
of a natural disaster and can prove productive to fulfil the political ambitions vis-à-vis the so-called Mission 44.

The Mission 44 is a stated electoral agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to form the next government in Jammu & Kashmir. The BJP has never been able to independently form a government and has traditionally been considered a negligible political force. The Indian locus to fortify an intra-state border is in contradiction with its territorial claims. India has historically claimed a territorial right over the entire state, whereas, an expenditure of millions of dollars to erect a short-term borderline within the state implies that current Indian government is willing to withdraw its right on the other part of the state which is under Pakistan’s administration.

Pakistan’s stated position on the LoC is that the border in Jammu and Kashmir is un-demarcated and any measure to alter its status or to erect permanent obstacles is a direct violation of India’s international obligations. Perhaps, the challenge to establish India’s authority over whole Jammu & Kashmir is bigger than the BJP’s speculations. It is a vibrant society with an established history of resistance against coercion. Over one billion people simply can’t put
barricades alongside their courtyards. Hundreds of villages and grazing areas of inhabitants of those villages have virtually been traversed by the LoC.

Despite the explosive nature of the military zone, Kashmir grazers habitually take their cattle to farmlands where they are always on mercy of rival forces. A fence can only make access of annoying elements difficult, but not impossible. Putting barricades in peoples’ pastures, without asking them, can never be a welcome move.

For Kashmiris, the LoC is not only a symbol of state interference in social life, but also, an emotional object representing the importance of cross-border alliances. In this sense, the areas along the LoC represent a social structure where state-owned military paraphernalia is considered a symbol of authority; not protection.

The LoC iconizes the state as an indeterminate sovereign power that has a merciless business of showing power to its neighbour upon the bodies and souls of its subjects. The very notion of showing strength to neighbours has characteristically shaped the underlying fabric of India-Pakistan relations. A neighbourhood is no longer a place where charity begins; it’s an abandoned farmland, a deserted house or a dwelling of devils and demons.

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Yemeni Houthis have taken control of the town of Hudeida after a lightening offensive Tuesday, AFP reports. This advance comes less than a month after the rebels took control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.

According to AFP, the Houthis were met with little resistance as they seized the city’s seaport and airport.

Yemen’s Houthis have been unhappy with President Hadi’s administration and have demanded more participation in their government.

Original article

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(Civil.Ge) — USS Mount Whitney, flagship for the Europe-headquartered U.S. 6th Fleet, docked into Georgia’s Black Sea port of Batumi on October 14, where it will stay till October 18.

“Mount Whitney’s visit reaffirms the United States’ commitment to strengthening ties with NATO allies and partners like Georgia, while working toward mutual goals of promoting peace and stability in the Black Sea region,” the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said.

It is the third port visit to Georgia by the USS Mount Whitney, the U.S. 6th Fleet’s amphibious command and control ship. It delivered humanitarian aid to the port of Poti in early September 2008, less than a month after Georgia-Russia war; at the time Russian military forces were still maintaining two outposts in the outskirts of Poti. The last time when Mount Whitney made port visit to Georgia was in November, 2013. Mount Whitney was previously in the Black Sea in February, 2014.

“While in Georgia, Mount Whitney will conduct routine combined training with the Georgian Coast Guard, provide ship tours, hold a public concert for the local community, and host a reception for local officials. Mount Whitney’s port visit will build on previous U.S. Navy visits to Georgia that enhance the professional and personal relationships between the United States and its allies and regional partners,” the U.S. embassy said. “The U.S. Navy routinely operates ships in the Black Sea consistent with the Montreux Convention and International Law.”

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How will the military campaign against ISIS affect Syria over the long-term? Murhaf Jouejati warns that unless Washington actively trains, equips and politically accommodates ‘moderate’ Syrian opposition forces, the greatest beneficiary of the intervention could indeed be the Assad regime.

By Murhaf Jouejati

On 10 September 2014, US President Barack Obama publicly declared war on ISIS with the goal of degrading and destroying the extremist organization. Obama’s new stance was an escalation of his earlier, more limited decision to use American airpower against ISIS in western Iraq. In his televised speech, Obama affirmed that he would not hesitate to strike at ISIS targets in Syria as well – without seeking the Assad regime’s authorization.

What explains the shift from Obama’s earlier “hands off” approach towards Syria, and how will the new approach affect that war-torn country?

The shift in Obama’s approach

The trigger for the dramatic shift in American policy was the beheading by ISIS fighters of two American journalists, James Foley and Steven Sotloff. Against this backdrop, widespread criticism regarding Obama’s passive Syria policy had been mounting steadily. Critics took Obama to task for not having intervened in Syria’s civil war earlier, when the emergence of ISIS might have been prevented. Many argued that the negative ramifications of Obama’s passivity went beyond Syria: it emboldened Russia to annex Crimea and destabilize Ukraine, and hardened Iran’s stance in the nuclear talks — without the fear of major retribution. At the end of the day, what forced Obama’s hand was the combination of this stinging criticism, pressure from sustained lobbying efforts by key US allies, and the significant shift in American public opinion (before the beheadings, 68% of Americans were “for” delaying the use of airpower. After the beheadings, 70% approved the use of American airpower).

Until then, most Americans had little appetite for foreign interventions, with the Afghan morass and the Iraq debacle still fresh in their minds. Moreover, the US economy was in the process of recovering from the “Great Recession.” American taxpayers were in no mood to subsidize new foreign adventures. Thus, in 2008, presidential candidate Obama promised a war-weary American electorate that, as president, he would extricate the US from the two wars he inherited from the previous administration and, instead, focus on domestic issues. This was the presidential legacy the Nobel Peace prize-winning Obama hoped to be remembered by.

Moreover, unlike his predecessor, Obama is for the most part allergic to unilateral US action abroad, preferring instead collective, multilateral action against potential threats to international peace and security. The trepidation he exhibited during the Libya crisis is one case in point: it took some effort on the part of his national security advisers to get him to commit US logistical support to America’s NATO allies — even as the UN Security Council gave the alliance the mandate to intervene in that country.

Washington’s strategy

The strategy Obama adopted in the battle against ISIS resembles the one Washington is currently implementing in Yemen and in Somalia. That strategy consists of bringing US airpower to bear in support of local allies on the ground. Thus, US airpower is to support the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga in their fight against ISIS in Iraq. In Syria, Washington’s local allies are the “moderate Syrian rebels” – the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA), a group Obama had shunned for the past three and half years, in part because of their fragmentation. As fragmented as the FSA is said to be, however, this irregular army of anti-Assad Syrian volunteers and defected soldiers has shown resilience in its battles against both Assad’s military machine and ISIS. Although militarily inferior, the FSA has been able to dislodge ISIS fighters from certain areas in Syria (including the outskirts of Damascus) and to repulse ISIS attacks in other areas – despite very meager resources.

Nevertheless, what differentiates this particular strategy from the Yemeni and Somali models is the coalition of regional and international allies Obama has stitched together: While Washington alone provides aerial support to its local Yemeni and Somali allies on the ground, in Syria Washington leads a coalition of over 40 countries.

The impact on the conflicting parties in Syria

There is little doubt that America’s overwhelming airpower will do much to degrade ISIS military assets in both Iraq and Syria. The regular airstrikes against ISIS positions and targets by sophisticated multinational fighter and bomber aircraft (along with an assortment of long range ballistic missiles) is reportedly having some effect.

That said, US airstrikes alone will not destroy ISIS, as the latter moves its military assets and prisoners to safer grounds. ISIS has already moved its fighters into civilian areas in towns and cities in eastern Syria.

To defeat ISIS in Syria, the US and its coalition partners will have to support the FSA, Washington’s only friend therein, far more than has been the case until now and far more than Washington suggests. The Congressional authorization the Obama administration recently sought (and obtained) to train and equip five thousand FSA fighters in the coming year is simply not enough to counter, let alone defeat more than thirty thousand battle-hardened and well-equipped ISIS fighters. Furthermore, the US will have to coordinate its airstrikes with the FSA, which, to date, has not been the case.

Over and above that, Washington and the FSA must align their political goals: whereas both seek to eradicate ISIS, the FSA also seeks the downfall of the Assad regime, something Obama has thus far resisted. Despite his repeated anti-Assad rhetoric, Obama deliberately withheld significant assistance to the FSA in part because Washington seeks a political solution to the Syrian crisis (in which elements of the Assad regime and the opposition are to share power). For the purpose, Washington seeks to level the Syrian playing field by providing the FSA sufficient military power to challenge the Assad regime but not enough to defeat it. The hope is that a weakened Assad would then be more willing to make concessions to the rebels than had been the case in the failed Geneva II talks.

Another factor that complicates the US-FSA relationship is their differing views on the al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front. In addition to ISIS, the US air force carried out airstrikes against the Nusra Front, or, more precisely, “Khorasan,” a little known extremist network said to be working to bolster the Nusra Front’s transnational jihadist profile. According to press reports based on US intelligence sources, this group is said to have been preparing an attack against US soil. Although US airstrikes against Khorasan make sense from an American perspective, they don’t from the perspective of the moderate Syrian rebels: one, they have never heard of Khorasan; and two, although the FSA is not enamored with the Nusra Front’s Takfiri ideology, the latter has, more often than not, served as a valuable ally in its war against both ISIS and the Assad regime.

In sum, if US airpower is married to would-be US-trained and US-equipped moderate Syrian rebel ground forces, the match could well be a winning ticket — with the proviso that Washington assist them in a meaningful way and coordinate its air operations with them. On the other hand, if things remain equal, the main beneficiary of the US intervention in Syria would, unwittingly, be the Assad regime.

Dr. Murhaf Jouejati is a Professor of Middle East Studies at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington DC. He is also a lecturer in International Affairs and government at the George Washington University and a scholar at the Middle East Institute.

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