German police have arrested two men suspected of supporting Islamic State and raided properties across the country of another 13 suspected supporters of militant Islamist groups, prosecutors said on Saturday, Oct 17, Reuters reported.

The two men were arrested in the western city of Aachen and identified as a 38-year-old Tunisian, Kamel Ben Yahia S., and a 28-year-old Russian, Yusup G., said federal prosecutors in a statement.

The Tunisian is suspected of providing clothing worth over 1,100 euros and 3,400 euros in cash to Islamic State since July 2013 and of smuggling a 17-year old boy from Germany to Syria via Turkey to join the group. The Russian is accused of helping the smuggling and of being a member of a foreign terrorist organization.

Authorities believe the other suspects supported either Islamic State or Ahrar al-Sham, another Syrian Islamist group, by providing thousands of boots and other military clothing.

The raids took place in the western states of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Hamburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Schleswig Holstein and also the eastern state of Saxony.

Germany, along with other western European countries, is struggling to stop the radicalization of young Muslims, some of whom volunteer to become jihadists in Syria or Iraq. Officials worry that they will return to plot attacks on home soil.

German intelligence authorities estimate at least 450 people have left Germany for Syria and around 150 have returned. Many are being criminally investigated.

The post Germany: Police Arrest IS Supporters, Raid Properties appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On August 9, 1983, three people dressed as U.S. soldiers saluted their way onto a U.S. military base and climbed a pine tree. The base contained a school training elite Salvadoran and other foreign troops to serve dictatorships back home, with a record of nightmarish brutality following graduation. That night, once the base’s lights went out, the students of this school heard, coming down from on high, the voice of Archbishop Oscar Romero.

“I want to make a special appeal to soldiers, national guardsmen, and policemen: each of you is one of us. The peasants you kill are your own brothers and sisters. When you hear a man telling you to kill, remember God’s words, ‘thou shalt not kill.’ No soldier is obliged to obey a law contrary to the law of God. In the name of God, in the name of our tormented people, I beseech you, I implore you; in the name of God I command you to stop the repression.”

The three in the tree with the loudspeaker weren’t soldiers – two of them were priests. The recording they played was of Archbishop Romero’s final homily, delivered a day before his assassination, just three years previous, at the hands of paramilitary soldiers, two of whom had been trained at this school.

Fr. Larry Rosebaugh, (who was killed in Guatemala on May 18, 2009), Linda Ventimiglia, and Fr. Roy Bourgeois, (a former missioner expelled from Bolivia who was later excommunicated from the Roman Catholic Church because of his support for women’s ordination) were sentenced to 15 -18 months in prison for the stirring drama they created on the base that night. Romero’s words were heard loud and clear, and even after military police arrived at the base of the tree and stopped the broadcast, Roy Bourgeois, who would later found a movement to close the school, continued shouting Romero’s appeal as loudly as he could until he was shoved to the ground, stripped, and arrested.

As we approach the nightmare of renewed, expanded U.S. war in Iraq, I think of Archbishop Romero’s words and example. Romero aligned himself, steadily, with the most impoverished people in El Salvador, learning about their plight by listening to them every weekend in the program he hosted on Salvadoran radio.  With ringing clarity, he spoke out on their behalf, and he jeopardized his life challenging the elites, the military and the paramilitaries in El Salvador.

I believe we should try very hard to hear the grievances of people in Iraq and the region, including those who have joined the Islamic State, regarding U.S. policies and wars that have radically affected their lives and well-being over the past three decades.  It could be that many of the Iraqis who are fighting with Islamic State forces lived through Saddam Hussein’s oppression when he received enthusiastic support from the U.S. during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Many may be survivors of the U.S. Desert Storm bombing in 1991, which destroyed every electrical facility across Iraq.  When the U.S. insisted on imposing crushing and murderous economic sanctions on Iraq for the next 13 years, these sanctions directly contributed to the deaths of a half million children under age five.  The children who died should have been teenagers now; are some of the Islamic State fighters the brothers or cousins of the children who were punished to death by economic sanctions?  Presumably many of these fighters lived through the U.S.-led 2003 Shock and Awe invasion and bombing of Iraq and the chaos the U.S. chose to create afterwards by using a war-shattered country as some sort of free market experiment; they’ve endured the repressive corruption of the regime the U.S. helped install in Saddam’s place.

The United Nations should take over the response to the Islamic State, and people should continue to pressure the U.S. and its allies to leave the response not merely to the U.N. but to its most democratic constituent body, the General Assembly.

But facing the bloody mess that has developed in Iraq and Syria, I think Archbishop Romero’s exhortation to the Salvadoran soldiers pertains directly to U.S. people.   Suppose these words were slightly rewritten:  I want to make a special appeal to the people of the United States.  Each of you is one of us. The peoples you kill are your own brothers and sisters. When you hear a person telling you to kill, remember God’s words, ‘thou shalt not kill.’ No soldier is obliged to obey a law contrary to the law of God. In the name of God, in the name of our tormented people, I beseech you, I implore you …I command you to stop the repression.

The war on the Islamic State will distract us from what the U.S. has done and is doing to create further despair, in Iraq, and to enlist new recruits for the Islamic State.   The Islamic State is the echo of the last war the U.S. waged in Iraq, the so-called “Shock and Awe” bombing and invasion.   The emergency is not the Islamic State but war.

We in the U.S. must give up our notions of exceptionalism; recognize the economic and societal misery our country caused in Iraq; recognize that we are a perpetually war-crazed nation; seek to make reparations; and find dramatic, clear ways to insist that Romero’s words be heard:  Stop the killing.

This article first appeared on Telesur English.

The post Stop The Killing – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Elise Harris

While some countries face family issues such as divorce and polygamy, the synod’s Indian participants have voiced concern for interreligious marriages, which pose pastoral concerns across Asia.

“We have got this whole thing of mixed marriages, there are many marriages in India which are between (a) Catholic and somebody who is not baptized, a Hindu, a Muslim, or a Buddhist, and that is what specifically came out of India,” Cardinal Oswald Gracias of Bombay told CNA Oct. 10.

While marriage between a Catholic and an unbaptized person would normally be invalid, the local ordinary can dispense from this impediment, and thus allow such a marriage to be validly contracted (canon 1086).

Cardinal Gracias, who is part of Pope Francis’ ‘council of cardinals’, explained that when faced with the difficult situations interreligious marriages can present, it’s always necessary to have a “positive pastoral approach” to the couples and families involved.

The cardinal was accompanied to the synod by Fr. Cajetan Menezes, who is director of the Bombay archdiocese’s Snehalaya Family Service Center.

Fr. Menezes has served as an auditor for the synod, and spoke to CNA Oct. 15 saying the topic of interreligious marriages was one of the three points he brought up when he addressed the synod fathers.

With the number of interreligious marriages on the rise across Asia, the priest said that it is an important issue, and one with which the Church needs to have a “very specific pastoral care.”

“We need to reach out to them rather than look at them as problems. (They are) an opportunity to evangelize, and we need to take them on board,” he said, explaining that interfaith couples are often “ostracized by their own families because they are going against family tradition.”

“That creates more problems for them in their marriage, and that is not conducive for their marriage to grow and do well,” he observed.

Although other countries might not share the pastoral difficulties caused by interreligious marriages, Fr. Menezes observed that “this is a big issue in Asia because we are a minority,” and cited India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Japan as being countries with a high percentage of interreligious couples.

Thus there is a need to specifically address the issue and to give interreligious families more help and support, particularly in light of the challenges the couples face due to the differing traditions of their families, the priest explained.

Fr. Menezes said that the synod’s emphasis on welcoming and inviting those who are far from the Church or who find themselves in situations that could be problematic is also a way of embracing those who have been ostracized because of interreligious challenges.

“I think it’s the first time I noticed (them) speaking a different (kind of) language, and I think that’s a very positive influence of Pope Francis, (who) is reaching out, welcoming, and also looking at not only those who are at the center, but at the periphery,” the priest continued.

By reaching out to the marginalized, the synod fathers are making great progress in their attempt to “get everybody on board,” including members of the gay community and those who are divorced and remarried.

Cardinal Gracias, who has taken part in numerous synods before this, praised the free spirit in which discussion has taken place.

Even though each synod is free in its own way, the cardinal explained that when talking about the family “there is nothing which is taboo, nothing that you can’t speak about, no one is frightened to say ‘ok, this is a problem, we have got to face it.’”

To have differing opinions is important and essential, he said, and helps participants to reach more concrete, effective solutions.

“We have another synod next year which will be bigger (and) with more participation, and probably we will come to clearer conclusions at that particular moment of time,” the cardinal noted, but for now he is happy that “it is working well.”

Returning to the situation in India, Cardinal Gracias said that while Indians have traditionally maintained strong family ties, this is being influenced negatively by outside sources, including the film industry.

“I think that people are beginning to feel that this is not the best thing and we have got to try to reinforce the family,” he said, noting that although a zero percent breakdown rate is impossible, “it should not be 50 percent.”

However, he explained that much of a lasting family dynamic will depend on the preparation of the couple before marriage, as well as the process of accompanying them after the sacrament is contracted.

The post Interreligious Marriage: A Look At Synod From India’s Perspective appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mohammed Ghazal

Jordanian fighter jets have been bombing “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) targets in Iraq and Syria as part of the international coalition, which the kingdom joined in September.

Royal Jordanian Air Force jets began conducting strikes on September 22nd in defence of the kingdom’s security, sovereignty and borders, officials and strategy analysts told Al-Shorfa.

“The region is in a state of real war,” Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour said last month.

“We ought to be vigilant and strengthen our internal front,” he said, adding that Jordanian airstrikes against ISIL fall within the framework of defending the kingdom.

Jordan joined the international coalition in order to halt the march of ISIL, and has started striking the group’s strongholds, said government spokesman Mohammed al-Momani.

“The goal of the airstrikes is to eliminate terrorism in its own home in response to continued terrorist attempts to breach the kingdom’s borders,” he said.

Jordan will spare no effort in “pursuing and eliminating terrorism to fortify its security and stability”, al-Momani said.

Fortifying the domestic front

“Jordan is militarily capable of repelling any aggression this group carries out,” military expert Fayez al-Duwairi told Al-Shorfa, adding that the authorities are fully prepared to thwart any attempts to infiltrate into Jordanian territory.

Jordan is concerned with defending its security against ISIL, he said, and has proven its ability by destroying several vehicles and arresting individuals attempting to breach the border.

It also is concerned with the joint international effort to address this threat, he said.

Al-Duwairi commended the kingdom’s determination to “combat extremist thinking”.

Jordan has made intensive efforts to “address extremism and the causes behind the brainwashing of youth and their enrolment in terrorist groups”, he said.

Going forward, it will be important to strengthen the domestic front and exercise vigilance to prevent the emergence of sleeper cells in Jordan, he said.

Security agencies in Jordan recently announced they were taking measures near the Syria and Iraq borders in anticipation of possible ISIL infiltration or retaliation, said security affairs journalist Omar Maharmeh.

Arab countries in the coalition against ISIL also have launched a campaign “to combat extremist ideology and promote the values of justice and tolerance”, he told Al-Shorfa.

The Jordanian government is working to strengthen the domestic front and prevent the disruption of society with threats against its security, said Interior Minister Hussein al-Majali.

Security agencies are ready to contain any security incident or threat, he said.

The post Jordanian Jets Strike ISIL In Iraq And Syria appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The tenth Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM 10) was held in Milan on 16-17 October with leaders from over 50 European and Asian countries attending. ASEM 10 was hosted by the Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Renzi and chaired by the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy. Two new members joined the club – Croatia and Kazakhstan.

Under the theme “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security”, leaders exchanged views on economic, financial, regional and global issues, as well as traditional and non-traditional security challenges. Leaders also agreed to strengthen ASEM’s three pillars of cooperation in the lead-up to ASEM’s 20th anniversary in 2016. ASEM 11 will be hosted by Mongolia.

On the economic side leaders discussed the usual themes of tackling global imbalances, unemployment and slow growth. They underlined the need for an open, stable and predictable rules-based multilateral trading system and called on all members to ratify and implement the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) and the Investment Promotion Action Plan (IPAP) which seeks to tackle trade-distorting or protectionist measures.

There was a call to speed up ratification of the IMF quota and governance reforms that would benefit Asian countries, especially China.

One area they emphasized for future cooperation was connectivity between the two regions covering not only trade and investment but energy, information, knowledge and ideas, and greater institutional linkages. They also called for the establishment of faster and more secure transport routes between Europe and Asia, inevitable dubbed the new Silk Road by the media.

There were calls for closer cooperation on climate change with the aim of agreeing a legal instrument at Paris in December 2015.

On the security front there had been heated exchanges between some of the Asian countries in the run up to the summit. China refused to accept any mention of disputes in the South China Sea so the final statement just mentioned that leaders agreed on the critical importance of refraining from the use or threat of force and of disputes being resolved in accordance with principles of international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

During the restricted retreat session (a new idea for ASEM) leaders were able to raise several contentious issues without the need to seek agreement. These covered Iran, Libya, Syria and Iraq, regional security in Asia including Afghanistan and the DPRK, and Ukraine.

Leaders also tasked their Foreign Ministers and Senior Officials to submit concrete recommendations on the future direction of ASEM to the next summit, when the 20th anniversary of ASEM will be marked. Thailand agreed to organise a symposium on the Future Direction of ASEM.

This was a successful meeting measured against the restrictions of ASEM which is not an institution and not a decision-making body. It does allow European and Asian leaders the opportunity to have formal and increasingly informal discussions on a whole range of issues. In addition there are a plethora of side meetings where real business is done.

Media attention was on the side meetings to discuss the Ukraine crisis. EU leaders met with President Putin and President Poroshenko, who also had a bilateral. But regrettably there was little progress.

ASEM now moves towards its 20th anniversary in reasonably good shape. So long as there are no exaggerated expectations about ASEM it will continue to provide a useful platform for all its members.

The post Tenth Asia – Europe Meeting Held In Milan appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The impact of the Ebola outbreak goes far beyond the thousands of people who have died a horrible death from this ugly disease.  And it should compel us radically to rethink when and especially how we respond to crises.

By Mark Simmons

The death toll tops 4,500

The week before last the death toll from Ebola topped 4,000.  Last week the number stands at over 4,500; no-one now denies the urgency of tackling the outbreak.  Governments and charities alike have lobbied for the resources to respond.  The recent decision to test arrivals into the UK from the affected area reinforces the reality of the threat that it will spread to our shores.  Both fear and compassion force us to take action.  But what should our response be?  The impact of the Ebola outbreak goes far beyond the thousands of people who have died a horrible death from this ugly disease.  And it should compel us radically to rethink when and especially how we respond to crises.

Service collapse

In recent weeks we have heard pledges from across the UK’s political spectrum to overhaul the NHS.  But even with one of the lowest numbers of doctors per capita in the EU at 2.7 per thousand, the UK has over 80 times as many doctors per capita than Sierra Leone, where almost 1,200 people have been killed by Ebola.  In terms of stress on the healthcare infrastructure that’s like trying to treat the whole population of Newcastle or Leicester, but without any of the drugs, advanced treatment technology or even clean water which the NHS would have, and with far fewer hospital beds.  And because those few doctors who are there are dealing with Ebola patients, they no longer have any capacity to treat more preventable diseases like malaria, or to deal with childbirth complications, so even more people die.  Malaria is one of the deadliest killers, especially in Sierra Leone which has the world’s highest incidence of death from malaria; as many people could die in Sierra Leone from malaria as from Ebola this year.

A society unstuck

Even more pernicious than the virus itself is that because it is spread through contact with bodily fluids, and because its symptoms are not immediately visible, cultural norms have been rapidly eroded and everyone is afraid.  People can no longer bury their dead.  Parents cannot kiss their children goodnight.  Neighbours can no longer be invited to share an impromptu meal.  People can no longer greet others with a handshake or a hug.  Imagine how it would be to live in a society where all the rules of social conduct, where your normal way of life, disappears almost overnight.  Social cohesion is that mixture of relationships, shared activities and customs, and the sense of belonging and identity.  Take it away, and society is literally unstuck.  Normal rules no longer apply.  Self-preservation and anarchy set in.

The legacy of civil war

Add to that scenario the trauma of losing your relations and relationships, when you are already traumatised by violent conflict.  After faltering attempts at ceasefire and political peace agreement, Liberia has more or less been at peace for the last decade.  Neighbouring Sierra Leone had ended its civil war a year earlier.  Both have made significant economic, political and democratic progress.  Sierra Leone’s peace agreement even boldly included a commitment to a truth and reconciliation commission designed to demystify the conflict, correct its impunity, and heal its wounds.  But the atrocities of war were huge, and the consequences remain.  Children were abducted and forced to kill their parents.  Girls as young as 11 bore their rapists’ children.  And when lives have been so dramatically torn apart, so deeply traumatised, they can only be healed one by one and over time.  But these same people and these same communities now have to face death all over again, and the renewed trauma of social isolation.

Transforming fear

The populations of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea especially, and even of the UK, are understandably scared.  In West Africa, trade routes have been cut to stop the virus, borders closed, communities cut off.  Farmers have been too scared by the levels of human interaction required to access their land, harvest their crops, or sell them in the market.  Food is becoming increasingly scarce.  And clean water – an effective way to dilute Ebola’s impact on the human body – was already largely unavailable.  We must find ways, however small, to replace fear with hope and isolation with inclusion.  Only then will we replace sickness with health, trauma with wellbeing, or devastation with peace.

Mark Simmons is the Chief Executive of Cord UK.

The post The Impact Of Ebola – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The term South Asia commonly refers to seven countries namely: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. These countries are also part of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a bloc established in 1985. Afghanistan was included as the 8th member of SAARC in 2006 and China, Iran and Myanmar are also seeking full member status of the bloc.

According to various reports, SAARC member countries have millions of acres of cultivable land, reasonably robust agriculture and manufacturing base, but a very large percentage of the population of these countries live below the poverty line. Often South Asia is termed the poorest region in the world after Sub-Saharan Africa. While over a quarter of the world’s poor people live in Africa, half of them live in South Asia. According to one report there are more poor people in eight Indian states than in the 26 poorest African countries.

According to a World Bank report released in 2007, South Asia was the least integrated region in the world. Trade among countries in the region is around 2% of the region’s combined GDP, compared to 20% in East Asia. According to some analysts due to similar climatic conditions, soil composition and the mindset of ruling junta these countries still compete with each other in the global markets. Despite enjoying close proximity and often common borders, these countries have failed in complementing each other due to hostilities against each other.

Three of the largest countries by population, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have elaborate agriculture and manufacturing bases, but hardly enjoy cordial diplomatic relations. This virtually closes down doors for economic cooperation, particularly sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and even services. One of the reasons for the prevailing situation is a ‘trust deficit’ as the hawks present in these countries try to portray that economic cooperation among the member countries will make the smaller countries subservient to those that have more robust economies.

All the countries of the region suffer from acute shortage of energy products, the lifeline of economy. With a closer look at the power generation potential, installed capacities and actual output, one could say without mincing words that the energy crisis looming for nearly three decade is the outcome of following inconsistent policies and gross mismanagement. Below optimum capacity utilization of power generation capacity is partly due to the non-availability of fuel and partly because of the inadequate maintenance of power plants as poor cash flow is the mother of all evils.

Pakistan has an aggregate installed electricity generation capacity of nearly 30,000MW, but average output hovers around 15,000MW or 50 percent capacity utilization. Equally shocking is the news that India also suffers from the same contentious problem. The third largest economy of the world has an aggregate installed generation capacity of 250,000MW, but actual generation hovers around 150,000MW. A point that distinguishes the two countries is that while efforts are being made in India to overcome looming energy crisis, little effort is being made in Pakistan.

With respect to two of the gas pipeline projects — Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) — both pipelines were aimed at catering to India’s gas requirement, but Pakistan was to benefit in two ways: 1) getting millions of dollars in transit fees and 2) also gas for meeting domestic requirements. It was believed that after the easing of economic sanctions on Iran, Pakistan would succeed in completing a portion of gas pipeline located in its territory. However, it seems that Government of Pakistan (GoP) does not wish to complete this project due to the US pressure.

The fate of TAPI is also in the doldrums as NATO forces are likely to vacate Afghanistan in 2014. Therefore, Pakistan will have to accelerate oil and gas exploration activities in the country and also complete LNG project on war footings.

Pakistan is a natural corridor for energy supply because on one side are energy-rich countries and on the other side are energy-starved ones. Pakistan can also follow Singapore’s example and establish state-of-the art refineries on the coastal belt. In this regards help can be sought from China, Russia and other Central Asian countries. Pakistan already has a mid-country refinery and two pipelines to carry black and white oil products up to Multan. This can pave way for export of white oil products to Afghanistan and Chinese cities enjoying common border with Pakistan. Realization of all these projects could help the country in earning millions of dollars in transit fees.

Ironically, the Gwadar port project has been put on back burner after the departure of Pervez Musharraf. In fact the project should have been completed prior to the transfer of management control to China. While India is facilitating in the construction of Chabahar port in Iran, Pakistan will continue to offer the shortest and most cost effective route up to Central Asian countries passing through Afghanistan.

Lately, some Middle Eastern countries have shown keen interest in acquiring agriculture land in Pakistan, but local feudal lords have emerged to be the biggest opponents to leasing of cultivable lands to other countries. Pakistan has millions of acres of land that is not cultivated, mainly due to a shortage of irrigation water. Leasing out land to other countries would not be a bad proposal because it would help in improving the infrastructure, i.e. construction of farm to market roads, and modern warehouses. Construction of water courses and installation of wells would have helped in raising sub-soil water levels in arid zones.

Pakistan produces huge quantities of wheat, rice, sugar and fertilizer, but a significant portion of these commodities are smuggled to neighboring countries. The plugging of the porous border and formalizing trade with India, Iran and Afghanistan would increase Pakistan’s export manifold. It is estimated that nearly one million tons wheat and half a million tons rice and sugar each is smuggled to the neighboring countries.

The increase in lending to farmers has started yielding benefits with Pakistan joining the club of wheat exporting countries. The recent initiative of State Bank of Pakistan, Warehouse Receipt Financing and trading of these receipts at Pakistan Mercantile Exchange is likely to improve earnings of farmers, through the reduction in wastage and better price discovery. It is encouraging that the British Government has offered assistance equivalent to Rs240 million to complete the project at a faster pace. The key hurdle in the realization of this project is the lack of modern warehouses and an absence of collateral management companies.

Perhaps it is necessary to remind the GoP that nearly 1,000 palm oil plants were grown in Sindh near the coastal line. While a large percentage of plants have died due to improper management, extracting oil is almost impossible because no crushers have been installed. Achieving self-sufficiency in edible oil could help in saving over US$2 billion currently being spent on the import of palm oil.

Pakistan often faces bans on the export of seafood because it is not abiding by international laws. While local fishermen face starvation, deep sea trawlers from other countries intrude into Pakistan’s territorial waters and take away huge catches. On top of all this, the use of banned nets results in the killing of smaller fish that are ultimately used in the production of chickenfeed. This practice, going on for decades, deprives Pakistan from earning a huge foreign exchange, besides committing the ‘economic assassination’ of poor fishermen.

Pakistan’s agri- and industrial production has remained low due to the absence of policies encouraging greater value addition. Pakistan is among the top five largest cotton producing countries, but its share in the global trade of textiles and clothing is around two percent. The country needs to establish industries that can achieve a higher value addition. Pakistan should export pulp rather than exporting fruits that have shorter shelf life.

Pakistan has an overwhelming majority of Muslims, but the country still imports goods worth billions of dollars that are not Halal. Ideally, Pakistan should be exporting Halal food products to other Muslim countries. The country needs to focus on the breeding of animals (i.e. chicken, goat, cows) and the export of frozen meat and dairy products. If countries like Australia, and Holland can produce Halal Products then what is stopping Pakistan?

Another example is to follow Bangladesh, which does not produce cotton but its export of textiles and clothing is more than that of Pakistan. This is because Bangladesh has focused on achieving a higher value addition, while Pakistan continues to produce low quality and low priced items. This is a waste of a precious resource and to be honest, the value addition is negative.

Pakistan has also not been able to benefit from being a member of SAARC. Some analysts say it is difficult to compete with India, but has Pakistan really made any effort to achieve a higher value addition? The reply is in negative — perhaps due to the prevailing mindset of Pakistanis who want to lead an ‘easy life’.

The post Pakistan: Geopolitical Importance – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The inauguration of President Joko Widodo today, 20 Oct 2014, has raised hopes of a new beginning for Indonesia. Can he assuage doubts about his political longevity?

By Yang Razali Kassim

The rise of President Joko Widodo ushers in yet another chapter – a significant one – in Indonesia’s long and seemingly unending transition to civilian democratic rule. The new President’s assumption to office today has been accompanied with much anticipation, promising hope and refreshing change – a clear break from his predecessors.

President Jokowi, as he is fondly known, is not from the military, unlike Suharto or Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Though Muslim, he is neither from the Islamic voting bloc – a powerful constituency which only the military can balance. He is also not from the elite strata like previous presidents Sukarno, Habibie and Megawati, or the religious class like Abdurahman Wahid. The 53-year-old Jokowi literally emerged from the slums where he grew up; he was a furniture entrepreneur who virtually came out from the woodwork to become mayor of Solo in 2005, governor of Jakarta in 2012 and now president of the world’s fourth largest country in three gigantic leaps in just nine years. This is as spectacular as it is unprecedented.
Rapid rise, rapid opposition?

Jokowi’s popularity is due to his fresh face, coupled with the simplicity and humility of the wong cilik – the ‘small man’ – with a big mission of reform. It is an exciting prospect for the millions of voters who had grown tired of the usual slate of leaders from the military and political establishments.

However, despite months in the limelight as a competitor for power, President Jokowi’s enigma is yet to be fully unpacked: much of his potential is yet to be discovered or unleashed. Still, his supporters hope he will lead them to a new Indonesia – as a developed country with a place in the sun for every Indonesian regardless of background; an archipelagic state of 250 million who see their destiny as a regional maritime power in this part of the world.

It is therefore only natural that, having won the presidential election in July this year on a popular wave, Jokowi was widely expected to lead a strong government, with professional talent rallying around him to help tackle the country’s key challenges ahead: the economy which has to be kept galloping so that millions of jobs could be created; the growing budget deficits due to burgeoning fuel subsidies; the underdeveloped infrastructure; the notoriously endemic corruption; and the bloated bureaucracy. Jokowi has rightly resolved to bypass the politics of coalition and horse-trading that has weakened previous administrations. But despite having rightly identified the core problem, he does not possess the necessary levers of power.

How long can he last?

Indeed, as quickly as he has rapidly risen to the top, questions are already being asked, even as early as August: how long can he last as President? That such doubts about his political longevity are emerging so early is troubling. There have even been predictions of him not going past two years. The chief reason is this paradox: while he has won the presidential election, he is losing the power game:

Jokowi’s supporting parties in the Great Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Hebat, KIH) has only 37 percent of the seats in the new House of Representatives (DPR). Control of the House, by 63 percent, is in the hands of the Red-White Coalition (Koalisi Merah Putih, KMP) led by Prabowo, the defeated presidential contender. This was the result of the April parliamentary election prior to the July presidential race which Jokowi won, together with running mate Jusuf Kalla.

Having failed to challenge the legitimacy of Jokowi’s victory in July, Prabowo’s KMP moved with ruthless efficiency to secure key positions in Parliament by first changing the rules of filling DPR leadership posts in favour of voting, which suits its interest. The KMP then flexed its muscle by winning the posts of House Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

As if this is not enough, the opposition-dominated Parliament scrapped direct elections of regional leaders such as governors and mayors (Pilkada), giving back that power to the local legislative councils. It has also put on notice its desire to similarly roll back direct presidential elections and return the power to elect the president to the upper House, the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR). This was precisely how Suharto ran the presidential elections until he was deposed in 1998 and direct presidential elections introduced in 2004 during the reformasi era.

Throughout all this, Jokowi’s coalition appears helpless as the incoming president was busily preparing to form his cabinet. Jokowi has been trying to change the power balance by winning over some members of KMP, but to no great success so far. The earlier plan to swing the biggest opposition member, Golkar, has also fallen flat; Golkar leader Aburizal Bakrie has openly declared his loyalty to KMP in its role as a constructive opposition – amid Prabowo’s conciliatory stance towards Jokowi of late.

The implications are ominous for President Jokowi. His government is under threat from a possibly hostile parliament. To make things worse, he has inherited from President Yudhoyono a budget with a “time bomb” due to the growing deficits. In all, the Prabowo-led coalition could block the minority government’s budgets and policies at whim. In other words real power to run the country lies in the hands of the Legislature, not the Executive.

Jokowi needs a high-powered cabinet, to be announced this week, to help him deliver in spite of the hugh obstacles ahead. Failure to fulfill his campaign promises could lead to public frustration with his leadership and eventually perhaps to moves to impeach him.

What now?

Jokowi’s counter-moves are two-fold: the first – to restructure the parliamentary power balance by winning over some members of the Prabowo-led coalition – is making only limited headway. A significant swing could still happen if other KMP parties defect in sufficient numbers to give him the simple majority he badly needs. The second counter-move is to appeal directly to the people and put pressure on Prabowo’s KMP. If Jokowi still fails, a political crisis may develop leading to his downfall.

“He has to revamp the 2015 budget, otherwise the people will not have faith in him. If he does not come up with a sophisticated breakthrough, Jokowi may last for only two years,” former coordinating economic minister Rizal Ramli was reported as saying in late August. Nothing much has changed to alter the validity of this prediction.

So President Jokowi will spend much energy fighting his way through Indonesia’s byzantine politics rather than building a new Indonesia. Hopefully beneath his enigma lies some hidden strengths. Otherwise he will end up in the pantheon of short-lived presidencies like Habibie, Abdurahman Wahid and Megawati. To be the saviour of post-Suharto Indonesia, Jokowi must keep the flame of hope alive.

Yang Razali Kassim is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

The post The Spectacular Rise Of Joko Widodo: How Long Can He Last As President? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The new Jokowi government faces a major challenge to upgrade its maritime policy to safeguard Indonesia’s economic and defence needs. Besides securing its sea-lanes and overcoming logistical hurdles, the policy has to address the needs of Indonesia’s fishing and sea-based communities across the archipelago.

By Farish (Badrol Hisham) Ahmad-Noor

The new Indonesian administration of President Joko Widodo will face a number of challenges as a result of the promises of reform made during his presidential campaign in July. Among other things, the Jokowi-Kalla team promised an impressive and ambitious maritime policy to safeguard Indonesia’s future economic and defence needs.

That maritime concerns took centre stage is understandable, for millions of Indonesians still move across the vast archipelago by boats and ferries. This means an improvement of the country’s maritime logistical capabilities would be hugely important to connect production and population centres across the nation. This comes at a time when Indonesia’s internal ferry system is still slowly developing, and ferry accidents – particularly during peak periods such as national or religious holidays – are a continuing hazard.

Securing Indonesia’s sealanes

Additionally the Jokowi-Kalla team has promised a major upgrade of the Indonesian navy and the modernisation of its naval and maritime police capabilities. The new administration has committed itself to a shallow ‘green water’ fleet that will secure the internal sea-lanes and coastal areas of Indonesia by 2024, a move that is intended to address the problems of smuggling (including human trafficking, illegal immigration and refugees) as well as piracy across the archipelago.

On the macro-level these moves have been greeted positively by Indonesia’s neighbours: Securing the internal sea lanes of Indonesia will do much in the global effort against piracy and smuggling, and will pay dividends to other international actors who see a more secure Southeast Asia as a boon to international trade.

Domestically the promise to overcome logistical hurdles has also been well-met by the Indonesian business community that has been fed up with local cartels. These cartels control domestic logistical networks, which in turn have added to costs and prices of basic necessities like gas, oil, rice and sugar in the outer islands.

Maritime reform for a maritime nation

But on the ground-level the need for a coherent and effective maritime policy also serves a domestic political need, particularly for those communities in Indonesia whose political-economy is tied to the sea, such as the Bajao Laut people who live along the Timoro Straits off the Southeastern Peninsula of Sulawesi. A community of seafarers, their nomadic ways have been recorded since the 16th century when the first Europeans arrived in Southeast Asia.

The ‘world’ of the Bajao Laut is one that is sea-based rather than land-based. The Bajao are found across Sulawesi but also further, along the coast of Kalimantan, Sabah (East Malaysia) and Southern Philippines, making them a community that transcends political borders.

Up to the 1980s many of the Bajao still did not possess passports or identity cards that would identify them as Indonesian citizens. Many of them lived on boats out at sea and their life-rituals were tied to the sea, as was their income. Today most of them are settled in floating villages and their economic activity focuses on fishing and the harvesting of sea cucumbers – a delicacy much sought after in Hong Kong and China.

Globalisation has arrived in the form of traders who buy sea cucumbers in huge amounts, destined for restaurants in other countries like China. However their methods of fishing remain rudimentary, and most of them do not possess large fishing boats. Today Bajao fishermen are facing pressure from other fishing communities, including foreign fishing vessels, that have been encroaching upon their waters.

National agendas and local communal politics

Addressing the needs of communities like the Bajao Laut will be one of the priorities of the new government of Indonesia: The Jokowi administration has committed itself to a new maritime policy and the promise of a Maritime Ministry, in keeping with his vision of Indonesia as a maritime country where almost two-thirds of its territory happens to be maritime.

The Bajao Laut are a sizeable community, one among many across Indonesia. With the slow process of settlement, they are now accounted for, registered and have also become voters. Bajao community activism is on the rise, with the younger generation making demands upon both the Sulawesi provincial government and the central government to recognise their culture, language and address issues related to their political economy: the main concern being their lack of supportive infrastructure and their inability to compete with non-Bajao fishing vessels that may encroach upon their waters, robbing them of their livelihood.

Groups like ‘Bajao Bangkit’ (Bajaos Arise) have begun to call for better security, better education and better protection of their fishing-waters, and in time such groups have also learned the art of political lobbying.

The challenges that lie ahead for the Jokowi-Kalla administration are therefore many and complex, but they also have to do with the need to create a governmental system that takes into account not only economic and security needs but also communal demands from Indonesia’s complex multi-ethnic society. With democratisation and increased political education, the new government now realises that no community is too small or isolated to be neglected.

Farish A. Noor is an Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

The post Addressing Indonesia’s Maritime Needs: Jokowi’s Ground And Sea-Level Challenges – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Glen Watson

With so much media attention surrounding US airstrikes against ISIS and increased concerns about the spread of the Ebola virus, it’s understandable that many Americans aren’t focused on the upcoming midterm elections. These elections don’t generally tend to elicit much excitement but interest is particularly bleak this year, with nearly 40% of people reportedly not paying any attention at all according to a recent poll from the Pew Research Center.

But the outcome of the November 4 elections could have a host of important implications for the final two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. The Republicans are widely expected to retain control of the House of Representatives, and many in the GOP are bullish about the prospect of regaining control of the Senate. This would result in more control over prominent congressional committees, thus putting pressure on the president to take action on certain issues.

The most important of these issues for US-Canada relations is the potential for a forced Senate vote on the increasingly costly Keystone XL Pipeline project – a name that has become synonymous with Washington logjams. Up until now, the president has refused to make a final decision on whether the project will go forward.

The 1,179 mile pipeline was initially proposed by Calgary-based TransCanada Corporation more than six years ago. The project will have the capability to transport upwards of 830,000 barrels of oil per day from the Canadian oil sands to a network of existing U.S. refineries.

Supporters of the plan point to its potential to create thousands of construction jobs and grow the refining industry. For that reason, it has garnered the support of some major American labor unions. In addition, Keystone XL will purportedly allow the United States to lessen its dependence on foreign oil and shift imports of crude away from unstable and unsavory governments. The pipeline also has broad support among the American people, with 65% in favor of it according to a September 2013 survey.

But the TransCanada pipeline has united environmental groups across America and has been a tremendous grassroots organizing success. At least part of the opposition seems to be about the symbolic battle to stop climate change no matter what, which has continued to gain strength with each passing year of indecision. Specifically however, opponents contend that increasing production of oil sands crude will exacerbate climate change and that a major spill or leak would bring about tremendous environmental consequences, jeopardizing water supplies, polluting air, and harming wildlife.

President Obama has said that he will not approve a proposal that substantially increases climate change. In part, he’s been able to avoid decisiveness due to the lengthy review processes that are required when a proposed pipeline will cross international boundaries. Most recently, the president delayed a decision in April after the US State Department produced 17,000 pages of research, citing a legal case that is currently sitting with the Nebraska Supreme Court.

This dispute goes back to 2012 when the Nebraska legislature gave the governor the authority to approve a revised route in the state. These issues are normally decided by the state’s Public Services Commission, and a lower court held earlier this year that the governor should not have interrupted the process. The Supreme Court’s ruling is expected to come later this year or in early 2015, thus giving President Obama grounds to further delay making a decision.

There have been a number of efforts by lawmakers in Washington over the years to push a bill through Congress that would put an end to the regulatory delays and presidential hesitancy that has blocked the project. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has voted to approve the pipeline on seven occasions, including as part of a wide-ranging bill in September that included changes to the president’s health care law. But Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has consistently blocked any Keystone proposal from being voted on, in an effort to ensure that the normal process of State Department review and White House approval are not circumvented, and to prevent the GOP from being able to claim victory on the issue.

The closest that the pipeline has come to attaining senatorial approval was a 62-37 vote in favor of a non-binding motion that was appended to a budget resolution. This outcome underpins Republican hopes that they have enough bipartisan support to pass the pipeline should they net the six seats needed to regain control of the Senate. Such an election result would displace Reid as majority leader, presumably to be replaced by current minority leader Mitch McConnell provided that he wins his tightly-contested Kentucky race against Democrat Alison Lundgren Grimes.

Republicans have said they will make energy a priority if they regain control of the Senate, which could pave the way for fast-tracked legislation seeking approval of Keystone XL in early 2015. It could take the form of a stand-alone bill or as part of a ‘must-pass’ piece of legislation that is tied to government spending. Either way, it has the potential to put President Obama in a difficult position.

Increasingly, more Democrats are joining Republicans in supporting the pipeline as an overarching sense of ‘enough is enough’ seems to be sweeping through Washington. However, any Senate vote that fails to garner a two-thirds majority cannot override a presidential veto, which means that without 66 votes the president can prevent the pipeline from being approved.

President Obama would still be faced with a serious dilemma if a binding Senate vote received more than 60 votes, but less than 66; either approve the pipeline, something that he has consistently avoided, or veto a project that not only has some degree of bipartisan support, but a majority of the American public behind it as well.

The best-case scenario for Obama is to avoid this quandary by ensuring that the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, in which case he will face less pressure to make a decision. This favorable outcome also includes if there is a tie of 50 seats for each party, in which case vice president Biden would cast the tie-breaking vote.

While it should still be a tight race, most indicators are predicting a Republican Senate, including Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which is currently forecasting a 60% chance of GOP victory. Hampering the Democrat’s road to victory is that a number of long-time Democratic senators in typically conservative states like South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana have announced their retirement. Also problematic is that congressional elections in the midst of a president’s term traditionally favor the opposition – a trend accentuated by Obama’s spiking unpopularity, which has caused many Democratic candidates to distance themselves from him on the campaign trial.

For its part, the Conservative Party of Canada would welcome any political change in Washington that brings Keystone XL to fruition. The drawn-out approval process has been a source of irritation in Ottawa, where Prime Minister Harper views pipelines as being essential to Canada’s national interest. The Canadian prime minister believes that political considerations will inevitably be overrun by economic realities and widespread public support for the project. In his words: “it takes a lot of energy to repress and to block a decision that is clearly and overwhelmingly in the national interest of the country.”

The potential economic impact of Keystone XL for Canada is substantial given that the country ships over 98% of its oil exports to the United States. The Canadian Energy Research Institute estimated that if the pipeline is not built and no alternate pipeline takes its place, the Canadian economy would miss out on $632 billion in additional GDP over the next 25 years. The lion’s share of this loss of revenue would be shouldered by Alberta.

But in actuality, regardless of the outcome on November 4 and whether the pipeline is approved or not, crude from the Canadian oil sands will still find its way to US refineries via by tankers and rail. This would seemingly mitigate the substantial financial loss to the Canadian economy if the pipeline is not improved, but transporting by rail and tanker would reportedly result in considerably more greenhouse gas emissions and carbon increases.

While Keystone XL remains a project of significant importance, the parties have, in many ways, moved on. Gaining Washington’s approval for the pipeline remains a major priority for the Canadian government, but with or without the Americans, Canada will continue to develop the oil sands and diversify its exports. This is demonstrated by the legislative approval of the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline, a project that will transport more than 500,000 barrels of oil per day from Alberta to Asia.

The industry itself has certainly not slowed down due to the drawn-out approval process; according to TransCanada, since the application was filed more than six years ago, American production has increased two million barrels per day, and Canadian production has improved by half that.

Keystone XL is no longer even the continent’s largest pipeline project, having been supplanted by Energy East Pipeline. This TransCanada project is a 2,858 mile pipeline that will move 1.1 million barrels of crude oil daily from Alberta to facilities in eastern Canada where it can be used in North America, or shipped to Europe or Asia. One of the advantages of this pipeline is that because it runs within Canada, it does not require US approval.

In many respects, it seems that both supporters and opponents of the Keystone XL can claim some semblance of victory. The pressure applied by environmental groups has been instrumental in the lack of resolution that we have today. On the other side, the oil continues to flow and countless miles of pipeline have been built in the past six years without a fraction of the attention or opposition that Keystone XL has generated. While it is difficult to say with any certainty whether or not the TransCanada project will ever be built, we should have a great deal more insight into its likelihood after November 4.

This article was originally published at Geopolitical Monitor.com.

The post US Midterm Elections: Last Chance For Keystone XL? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Republic of Korea has a key leadership role to play in ensuring the success of the post-2015 development agenda across the entire Asia-Pacific, the top United Nations official for Asia and the Pacific said during her first mission to the Republic of Korea today.

United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, is in the Republic of Korea this week to meet with Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, as well as a number of other senior ministers and leading think tanks to discuss issues of global, regional and common interest, including expanded cooperation between the country and ESCAP.

The Executive Secretary’s visit marks the 60th anniversary of the Republic of Korea’s membership of ESCAP.

“In its path towards achieving great economic success over the last 60 years, the Republic of Korea has consistently provided inspiration and assistance to many other developing countries,” said Dr. Akhtar, also underscoring the strong leadership the country can offer in today’s global and networked economy, where innovation and technology have become drivers of growth and development.

“The Republic of Korea’s unique development experience will continue to be a valuable lesson for other countries in the region, particularly in the areas of ICT and promoting the ‘creative economy,” Dr. Akhtar said. “Some of the ways in which the Republic of Korea could share its experience and best practices would be by providing training on the ‘creative economy,’ technical advice and a transfer of technologies to other ESCAP member States.”

Dr. Akhtar emphasized that ESCAP and the Republic of Korea have a solid partnership. With Korea’s technical cooperation, ESCAP has enhanced awareness of green policies and technologies, provided capacity building support in ICT as well as supported the empowerment of women and persons with disabilities. ESCAP is looking to broaden and deepen its engagement with the Republic of Korea in the areas of financing, science, technology and innovation, as well as in regional economic integration and transformation, as the United Nations launches the post-2015 sustainable development agenda.

Today, the Executive Secretary also met with the Mayor of the Incheon Metropolitan City, which hosts ESCAP’s subregional office for East and North East Asia and ESCAP’s Asian and the Pacific Training Centre for Information and Communication Technology for Development (APCICT).

During this week, Dr. Akhtar will meet with the Ministers of Unification, Environment, Gender Equality and Family, the President of the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), the Chairman and President of the Export-Import Bank of Korea, as well as a number of other senior policy makers.

The post Leadership By Republic Of Korea Key In Future Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development, Says UN appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(EurActiv) — The European Union can slash natural gas imports from countries such as Russia by half and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 49% if it ramps up energy and efficiency improvements, a new report has argued.

Cost-effective measures in energy supply, industry and buildings would be good for the climate and boost energy security, the study by independent consultants Ecofys said.

The 49% cut to carbon, compared to 1990 levels, goes “far beyond” projections in the EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, the report said.

EU leaders will meet in Brussels later this week (23-24 October) to try and reach agreement on the package, which calls for a 40% greenhouse gas reduction, a 30% energy efficiency improvement and a 27% renewable energy target.

Energy security will also be on the agenda after the Ukraine crisis brutally exposed the EU’s dependence on Russian gas. Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia and Bulgaria are fully dependent on imports from Russia.

The EU’s response to the crisis was hampered by fears that Russia, through its state monopoly Gazprom, would up prices or simply turn off the taps.

The report said that an increase in the EU’s domestic gas production was unlikely, even when including shale gas as a possible source. Some EU countries, principally Poland, are investigating the potential of shale gas.

But the report said factors such as production costs, environmental impact, size of reserves and inadequate technological development would prevent the EU from having substantial shale gas production before 2030.

Measures

The report, Increasing the EU’s Energy Independence: A No-Regrets Strategy for Energy Security and Climate Change, compared the potential of the measures to current EU projections.

A 58% reduction in gas consumption from buildings by 2030, equal to 23% of all natural gas presently consumed by the EU, could be made through insulation, improved heating systems and more renewable energy input, the report said.

A 20% reduction in gas consumption from industry, equal to 5% of all natural gas presently consumed, could be gained by increasing combined heat and power generation, more efficient heating and better electric drive systems.

Assuming realistic growth, gas consumption from power generation could be cut by 63%, equal to 19% of all natural gas presently consumed by EU, by ramping up the use of renewable energy sources.

While the proposed EU target for the share of renewables in the 2030 energy mix is 27%, Ecofys analysis said that was no greater than the amount expected under ‘business as usual” growth.That meant there was substantial room for more renewable energy development, the study said.

Ecofys is part of the Open Climate Network, an organisation of independent research institutes and civil society groups. The World Resources Institute (WRI) is its secretariat.

Director of WRI’s climate and energy program Jennifer Morgan said, “This analysis shows that the EU can cut natural gas imports in half without raising costs for consumers.

“This is a win-win approach for the EU, increasing its energy security and raising the bar for climate action.”

Russia and Ukraine have agreed on the outlines of a contract to resolve their dispute over gas supplies, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Friday (17 October) after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany.

The post Study: EU Can Cut Gas Imports And Carbon Emissions By Half appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Moody’s Investor Services said Egypt’s political and security situation has stabilized, raising the country’s outlook from negative to stable, the Associated Press reports.

The influential international ratings agency credits, “the launch of government initiatives toward fiscal consolidation, signs of a growth recovery and an improvement in macroeconomic stability” for its revised assessment, which was announced on Monday, Oct 20.

However, Moody’s kept Egypt’s government bond rating at “Caa1″_essentially junk bond level. Moody’s said the continued low rating “reflects the very weak and challenging state of Egypt’s government finances.”

Wael Ziada, head of research at EFG Hermes, one of the Middle East’s largest investment banks, called Moody’s improved outlook “a prerequisite for attracting investors.” He said it is particularly important ahead of a major donor’s conference next February, where the government is looking to raise as much as $100 billion.

However, Ziada said the government has yet to clarify its broader economic vision despite some positive steps.

Egypt’s economy has been battered from three years of near-constant political upheaval since the ouster of longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak. The vital tourism industry collapsed and Egypt has struggled to attract foreign investors. Gulf countries have kept Egypt’s economy afloat with massive influxes of aid.

In the last year, a sweeping crackdown on dissent — including a law banning demonstrations without prior government approval and the arrest of thousands of government opponents — has all but crushed street protests.

Now, President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has launched a number of mega-projects including the expansion of the Suez Canal. The government says that project could boost revenues from $5 billion to $13 billion annually.

The government slashed fuel subsidies and is pursing revenue-enhancing measures aimed at deficit reduction. “It’s an economy that has benefited from some important decisions that have been made by the Egyptian government recently to try and contain their budget deficit … raising energy prices and reallocating these resources to other more productive uses,” said International Monetary Fund Middle East Director Masood Ahmed at a recent press conference.

The country’s finance ministry predicts growth rates of up to 6 percent within three years, which would mark a major turnaround. Government officials have said recent tourism figures are showing signs of recovery as a number of key countries lift travel warnings to the Sinai Peninsula.

The IMF said it plans to conduct a long-delayed assessment of Egypt’s economy in November. Finance Minister Hany Kadry Dimian has said he hopes the resumption of consultations with the IMF will help restore confidence in the economy for investment.

The post Moody’s Raises Egypt’s Outlook From Negative To Stable appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Toyota Motor Corp recalled 247,000 cars, SUVs and pickup trucks in the United States on Monday, Oct 20, because of potentially defective front passenger air bag inflators from Japan’s Takata Corp that can rupture and spray metal shrapnel, U.S. safety regulators said, according to Reuters.

That raised the number of vehicles affected by regional recalls launched in June by several automakers due to the Takata air bags to more than 4.5 million.

The regional recalls by Toyota and other automakers including Honda Motor and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ Chrysler Group began in certain high-humidity areas of the United States after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) started investigating reports of air bag explosions in Florida and Puerto Rico.

The Toyota vehicles affected by Monday’s recall are from model years 2002 through 2005, according to the NHTSA documents. They include the Lexus SC coupe, Toyota Corolla small car, Corolla Matrix small car, Sequoia SUV and Tundra full-size pickup. Also part of the recall is General Motors’ Pontiac Vibe, which was built by Toyota.

The vehicles being recalled are registered or originally sold in areas of South Florida, along the Gulf Coast, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, Saipan and American Samoa, according to the NHTSA documents.

A Toyota spokeswoman said the automaker was not aware of any crashes, injuries or deaths related to the recall.

The post Toyota Recalls 247,000 Cars In US Due To Air Bag Issue appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By KP Fabian

The battle for Kobane, the Kurdish town on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey, is still raging, though indications are that the US’ airstrikes have so far failed to make a decisive impact and reverse the advance of the Islamic State (IS) fighters. The US’ airstrikes on the IS have been ongoing for almost a month in Syria and for two months in Iraq. Yet, Ramadi, the capital of the huge Anbar province in western Iraq might fall to IS soon. The question arises on whether or not US President Barack Obama’s strategy – military and political – against the IS will work.

On September 10, he announced that the US would “degrade and ultimately destroy” the IS. At present, it is clear that the US strategy is not working. But, the key question to raise is whether there is a coherent, consequential, and consistent US policy to deal with the crisis in Iraq and Syria. The answer is in the negative.
Washington’s policy has been vitiated by misjudgments and incoherence. In August 2011, President Obama, after a fortnight-long consultations with his counterparts in UK, France, and Germany, announced that there should be a regime change in Syria; President Basher al-Assad had forfeited his legitimacy and it was abundantly clear that he had to go. One might have reasonably concluded that Obama spoke out on the basis of a political assessment made by his intelligence agencies and diplomats, corroborated by their counterparts in the other three countries.

Obviously, the assessment was deeply flawed. UN officials who visited Syria to prepare the ground for the Kofi Annan mission that started in February 2012 found no reason to conclude that Assad was on his way out. How did Obama come to his conclusion? It appears that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had conveyed to US that their intelligence agencies had, after investigations, come to that conclusion. Perhaps, because Assad is close to Iran, and the US wants to weaken Iran, Washington might have uncritically accepted the Saudi-Qatar inputs.

In August 2012, Obama revealed the ‘red lines’ Assad should not cross, referring to moving or using chemical weapons. In August 2013, when Assad used chemical weapons and Washington consulted its allies, there were loud signals that the US and France were about to attack Syria. However, Russia picked a hint thrown by US Secretary of State John Kerry and made Assad agree to destroy his chemical weapons. While the decision to get the weapons destroyed without air attacks on Syria was reasonable, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia was deeply disappointed by what it read as Obama’s vacillation.

It has been argued by Obama’s critics, including former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, that, right at the beginning if the US had armed the moderate Syrians, extremist groups such as the al Qaeda and the IS would not have established themselves in the latter. Obama was reluctant to send arms as the US worried the arms would land up in wrong hands. But, in that case, Obama should not have made the August 2011 statement and given the impression that Washington would arm and support the rebels. The US-initiated Geneva process with Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi as Special Envoys for Syria, both eminent diplomats, was an elaborate charade.

The airstrikes are unlikely to destroy the IS but degrade, they might. Obama has virtually declared an open-ended war on the IS. His repeated pledge not to send ground troops is understandable, but his own defence team has made it clear that airstrikes are not enough. Obama’s plan to get about 5000 Syrians trained in Saudi Arabia and send them to Syria is rather fanciful. The 5000 cannot make much impact either on Assad or on the IS that has about 30,000 fighters. By the time they reach Syria, the IS might have expanded its hold.

In the longer term, the US might not mind Iraq’s breaking into three or more, a Kurdistan, a Shiastan, and one or more Sunnistans. The US’s long-term interest is to see an independent Kurdistan that holds about 40 per cent of Iraq’s oil – and where US companies are deeply engaged in. Perhaps, even Iran might not mind the breakup of Iraq if the Shiastan with its oil wealth will remain an obedient satellite. Turkey has plans to acquire territory from Syria – which is why it is asking for a buffer zone and a no-fly zone. However, if an independent Kurdistan is established in Iraq, it will ignite the Kurds in Turkey and Syria, and even Iran, to work towards independence. Assad’s support from his Alawite base is declining and his photos are no longer shown at the burials of dead soldiers. He might hold what he has and the IS and others hold what they have, marking the end of Syria.

All told, it is the beginning of the end of the political boundaries set by the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement to serve the interests of UK and France. But, much more is at stake. When and how will the region recover peace and tranquility?

KP Fabian
Former Indian Ambassador to Qatar

The post The US, Syria And Iraq: The Success Of Airstrikes So Far – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On the morning of 18 October 2014, Shiv Kumar, a personnel belonging to the Chhattisgarh Armed Police was pulled out of a passenger bus in Sukma district by a group of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres and killed. Kumar was ill and was on his way to the hospital when the bus he had boarded was waylaid by extremists. On the previous day, Raghunath Kisku, Founder Member, Nagarik Suraksha Samity (NSS), an anti-Maoist organisation, was killed by Maoists in Ghatshila sub-division of Jharkhand’s East Singhbhum district.

Kumar was the 69th security force personnel and Kisku, the 164th civilian, to be killed by Maoists in 2014. Other activities perpetrated by the Maoists till 15 September include 125 attacks on the police; 40 occasions of snatching of weapons from the security forces; and holding of 25 arms training camps and 46 jan adalats in areas under their influence. While the occurrence of larger attacks have substantially decreased, the number of extremism-related incidents roughly remain the same compared to the corresponding period in 2013 – indicating the continuation of the challenge.

And yet it is a hard time for the Maoists. Till 15 September, 1129 CPI-Maoist cadres were neutralised, including 49 who were killed in encounters, and 1080 cadres, arrested. While the outfit can take pride from the sacrifices made by these men and women, what continues to trouble it is the perpetual desolation creeping into its ranks and files, leading to a large number of surrender of its leaders and cadres.

Among the 395 who have surrendered till 30 September are leaders like Gumudavelli Venkatakrishna Prasad alias Gudsa Usendi, Secretary, Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC), arguably the outfit’s most potent military division based in Bastar and his wife Raji; GP Reddy, Member, the DKSZC, and his wife Vatti Adime; and Bhagat Jade and his wife Vanoja. According to the Chhattisgarh police, over 140 cadres have surrendered between June and September 2014 in Bastar alone, partly due to the disillusion with the outfit’s ideology and partly convinced by the police’s method of highlighting the discrimination suffered by the local Chhattisgarh cadres at the hands of those drawn from Andhra Pradesh.

Press statements of the CPI-Maoist, while condemning these surrenders as demonstration of opportunism and desertion of the movement by corrupt and politically degenerated persons, admit that the revolution is currently undergoing its most difficult phase. The CPI-Maoist has accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government in New Delhi of launching the third phase of Operation Green Hunt, a ruthless war aimed at annihilating the Maoists who are the “biggest threat” to its “pro-reform” policies. Asserting that it has merely only engaged in a “war of self defence,” the outfit has called for a “widespread struggle to fight back the threat by uniting all the revolutionary and democratic forces.”

Its progressively declining capacity to annihilate enemies since 2010 – in spite of the ability to pull off some of the most spectacular attacks on security forces and politicians in recent years – has remained a matter of worry for the CPI-Maoist. Its failure to disrupt the parliamentary and state assembly elections coupled with a regular desertion of its cadres has descended as an existential threat on the outfit that once controlled one-third of the country’s geographical area. Even with the persisting bureaucratic inertia and unimaginative security force operations, most of the affected states have gained in their fight against the extremists.

However, the outfit’s domination over large swathes of area in Chhattiagrh, Odisha and Jharkhand with significant presence in states like Bihar provides it with the ability to continue with its small ambushes. Its recruitment and fund raising ability appears to have shrunk. And yet, the outfit harps about a people’s militia “now in thousands” united by apathy of the state and carefully calibrated image of the government being a representative of the exploitative industrial houses. Hence, a scenario in which surrenders and killings of the Maoists would push the outfit into oblivion is remote.

The Indian Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), after months of deliberation, is now armed with a new policy to counter the Maoists. The policy, subject to cabinet approval, would remain open to use “any element of national power” against the extremists. Although it does not rule out peace talks with the extremists, it makes the peace process conditional to the CPI-Maoist renouncing violence. It plans to make the state police the lead counter-insurgent force against the extremists while assigning the central forces, especially the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the responsibility of holding the counter-insurgency grid together “like a glue.” While impressive in its nuances, the approach is guided by the belief that it is possible to wipe out the Maoists by force alone.

The impact of the new official counter-Maoist policy remains to be seen. However, in the clash between a militarily ‘down-and-not-yet-out’ CPI-Maoist and the official security apparatus that has its own set of serious problems, little more than persistence of the logjam can be expected.

This article was published by IPCS.

The post Chhattisgarh: Might Of A Fragile Revolution – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Bolivia’s Supreme electoral tribunal (TSE) officially declared President Evo Morales winner of the October 12 presidential election with 61.04% of votes.

Based on final results, with 99.82% of votes tallied, the ruling MAS (Movement to Socialism) candidate obtained 3,053, 846 votes, in respect to the runner up Democratic Union (UD) of his main challenger, Samuel Doria Medina, equivalent to 24.49 %. Their former conservative president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga (2001-2002) obtained a mere 9.07%, followed by the former mayor of La Paz Juan del Granado with 2.72 % and the indigenous leader Fernando Vargas with 2.69 %.

TSE chairwoman Wilma Velasco specified that the minimal percentage of ballots not tallied were in 44 polling stations of the eastern department of Santa Cruz and 5 in Oruro, in the west, where the vote will be repeated at the end of the month, but that “this will not affect the final result”.

In an interview with the state media, Morales expressed his joy, commenting that “the promoters of privatizations lost”.

The indigenous President, in office since 2006. won in 8 of the nation’s 9 regions, including Santa Cruz, a stronghold of the more extreme conservative opposition. In Santa Cruz Morales obtained a high 49.01 % of votes, in respect to the 39.79 % of Doria Medina, among the wealthiest businessmen of the nation.

The post Bolivia: Morales Officially Declared Winner appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Turkey will finally help Iraqi Kurdish fighters to reach the besieged Syrian border town of Kobani where their fellow Kurds have been fighting Islamic State militants for over a month, Ankara has said.

“We are facilitating the passage of peshmerga forces to Kobani to provide support. Our talks on this subject are continuing,” Reuters quoted Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as saying.

During a press conference, the foreign minister stated that Ankara doesn’t want Kobani to fall into the hands of the violent jihadist group, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL), which has seized large areas of Syria and Iraq.

He also said that the Turkish authorities are “fully cooperating with the international coalition over Kobani.”

However, Cavusoglu stopped short of saying that Ankara supports Washington’s decision to supply weapons to the Kurdish troops fighting for Kobani.

Arms and medical supplies, which the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq gathered for their fellow Kurds in Syria, were airdropped by the US military planes near the besieged town on Sunday.

The Turkish FM said that “we want the region to be cleared of all threats. We assess the military and medical materials aid provided by our Iraqi Kurdish brothers and airdropped by the US to all forces defending Kobani in this framework.”

The statement echoes the words of Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said on Sunday that the Syrian Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party) in Kobani is “no different” to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

The PKK is banned in Turkey as a terrorist organization for leading a 30-year struggle against Ankara in order to create a Kurdish autonomous region in southeastern Turkey.

Cavusoglu has urged the PYD to give up the idea of carving out autonomous Kurdish regions in Syria and to start cooperating with the opposition Free Syrian Army group, which is fighting to overthrow against Ankara’s long-time foe, Syrian President Bashar Assad.

“For as long as the PYD maintains these aims, it will not receive the support of the FSA and Turkey,” he said.

The foreign minister also said that the airspace of Turkey wasn’t used by the US to perform airdrops to the Kurds.

On Monday, US Secretary of Stat John Kerry said that Washington understood Turkey’s concerns about supplying arms to the Kurds.

But he stressed that in the current situation it would be “irresponsible” and “morally very difficult” not to support the Kurdish troops, who are fighting the Islamic State in Kobani, AP reports.

Turkey’s unwillingness to join the battle against the Islamic State on the ground has drawn angry comments from Washington.

It also sparked violent Kurdish riots in southeastern Turkey as protestors demanded Ankara to at least open a land corridor for volunteer fighters and reinforcements – a claim, which has now been fulfilled.

Turkey has a difficult relationship with the 15 million Kurds living in the country and the representatives of the stateless ethnic group residing in neighboring Iraq and Syria.

Ankara views the Iraqi Kurds (KRG) as an ally, but its attempts to reach peace with the Turkish Kurds (PKK) has failed, with the situation deterioration over the events in Kobani.

As for the Syrian Kurds (PYD), the Turkish authorities demand them to join the battle against Assad in Syria.

On Monday, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said that Washington understood Turkey’s concerns about supplying arms to the Kurds.

The post Turkey To Allow Iraqi Kurds To Join Battle Vs Islamic State In Kobani appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — The Georgian authorities will take measures aimed at “consolidating” and heightening international focus on Russia’s “attempt to annex” Abkhazia thought its proposed new treaty on alliance and integration with Sokhumi, senior officials said after a meeting of the Georgian State Security and Crisis Management Council on Saturday.

Defense Minister, Irakli Alasania, said after the meeting that “very aggressive – meaning active” foreign policy steps will be undertaken.

Foreign Minister, Maia Panjikidze, said it implies being more “pro-active”. Panjikidze said that she will make this issue a central point when she meets EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on October 20 on the sideline of the EU’s foreign affairs council, as well as during her talks in Berlin after trip to Luxembourg.

The meeting of the Georgian State Security and Crisis Management Council, which was chaired by PM Irakli Garibashvili, was also attended by senior lawmakers from the Georgian Dream ruling majority and was then also joined by Georgia’s ambassadors to the United States, the EU and the Council of Europe.

The council was also briefed by PM’s special envoy for relations with Russia, Zurab Abashidze, about his meeting with Russia’s deputy foreign minister Grigory Karasin in Prague on October 19. Although no date for their next meeting has yet been set, Tbilisi has not yet either decided to suspend this format of informal direct dialogue with Moscow, which was launched in December, 2012 and which has mostly been focused on trade and economic issues, leading to reopening of Russian market for Georgian products last year. The recent meeting between the two diplomats, however, was apparently dominated by Russia’s intention to sign new treaty with Abkhazia, which Tbilisi has condemned as a step towards “annexation of occupied territory.”

There have been concerns about the Kremlin-proposed treaty in Sokhumi as well. A working group of Abkhaz officials has been set up to develop its version of treaty.

GD MP Irakli Sesiashvili, chairman of defense and security committee in the parliament, who was present at the meeting of the security and crisis management council, said in this situation Tbilisi and Sokhumi are now actually on “the same side.”

Two days before the council session, PM Garibashvili said he has an “idea in respect of Abkhazians”, which he declined to specify, but said that he was going to discuss it with the State Security and Crisis Management Council.

After the meeting on October 18, secretary of the security and crisis management council, Mindia Janelidze, said that discussions are underway over the proposals and the Prime Minister himself will make a statement about it “in the nearest future.”

The post Georgia To Counter Russia’s Abkhaz Moves With ‘Pro-Active’ Foreign Policy appeared first on Eurasia Review.

U.S. military forces conducted multiple airdrops near Kobani, Syria, last night to resupply Kurdish forces on the ground defending the city against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists, U.S. Central Command officials reported.

Air Force C-130 aircraft deployed to the Centcom area of responsibility delivered weapons, ammunition and medical supplies that were provided by Kurdish authorities in Iraq and intended to enable continued resistance against ISIL’s attempts to overtake Kobani, officials said, adding that all aircraft left the airdrop zone safely.

The airdrops were conducted in support of Operation Inherent Resolve, the operation to degrade and defeat ISIL and the threat it poses to the region and the wider international community.

To date, Centcom officials said, U.S. forces have conducted more than 135 airstrikes against ISIL in Kobani. Combined with continued resistance to ISIL on the ground, they added, indications are that these strikes have slowed ISIL advances into the city, killed hundreds of the terrorist group’s fighters and destroyed or damaged scores of pieces of combat equipment and fighting positions.

However, officials noted, the security situation in Kobani remains fragile, and the city still could fall.

The post US Resupplies Kurdish Forces Fighting Islamic State Near Kobani appeared first on Eurasia Review.