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3 US & 1 UK Rabbis Killed, 8 Injured In Attack At Jerusalem Synagogue

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Four people have been killed and at least 8 wounded when two assailants attacked worshipers with knives, axes and a pistol in a synagogue in North Jerusalem in the morning. Three of the victims were dual nationality US citizens and one was from the UK.

Israeli police say both attackers were shot dead on the spot by officers. Spokeswoman Luba Samri described the incident as a “terrorist attack,” according to AP.

Israel’s Public Security Minister, Yitzhak Aharonovitch, has said that gun controls for self-defense will be eased in wake of the attack.

“In the coming hours, I will ease controls on carrying weapons,” he said in comments broadcast on public radio.

He added that the new rules will apply to anyone who owns a gun license, such as private security guards and off duty army officers.

Israeli police have confirmed four people have died in the incident and eight have been wounded, four seriously, two moderately and two lightly.

All four of the victims were rabbis and one of them, Moshe Twersky,was the head of the English speaking Yeshiva Toras Moshe, an institution for religious studies, in Jerusalem. His funeral procession will be held at 2:00 pm local time.

Another of the victims was a British-Israeli national, according to the UK’s Foreign Office.

“We are aware of the death of a dual British-Israeli national in Israel on 18 November 2014,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

The other three were US citizens, according to Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld

The FBI has said it will open an investigation into the attack as three of the victims were US citizens.

The suspects have been named as Uday Abu Jamal and Ghassan Abu Jamal, from East Jerusalem, and were both members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which has praised the attack but stopped short of claiming responsibility, Hamas also honored the attack.

Israeli police spokeswoman Luba Samri confirmed the suspect’s identity, AP reports.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Prime Minster has ordered the homes of the two suspects to be demolished, according to his spokesman.

The attacked synagogue is situated on Agasi Street, in the ultra-Orthodox Had Nof neighborhood of Jerusalem.

“We were praying in synagogue in the morning, we heard gunshots from downstairs… one shot, two shots and then a flurry of shots,” a witness who was inside the building told AP.

The first call to the emergency services was at 7:01 and two traffic policemen were the first on the scene who were joined by a third officer. They started shooting at the terrorists and killed them, although one of the policemen was critically wounded in the firefight and another moderately.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is going to ‘respond harshly’ to this latest terror attack.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has condemned an attack on a Jerusalem synagogue.

“The presidency condemns the attack on Jewish worshipers in their place of prayer and condemns the killing of civilians, no matter who is doing it,” Reuters cited Abbas’s office as saying in a statement.

Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians have been running particularly high over the last two weeks and world leaders are becoming increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations. On Monday the EU’s newly-appointed foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, called for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state in the next few years.

There have also been a number of symbolic votes in favor of recognition of the Palestinian state in parliaments of several European states, such as Sweden, France and UK.

Spanish MPs are expected to vote in support of a Palestinian state on November 18.

Last weekend Israeli Haaretz revealed a secret EU document that Israel could soon face sanctions from Brussels if Tel Aviv makes any further attempts to pose obstacles to a two-state solution with occupied Palestine.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s reply to that was that Israel will never stop its settlement constructions in occupied East Jerusalem.

On Monday the conflict escalated even further as a Palestinian bus driver was found hanged inside his vehicle at a depot in Jerusalem, with the Israeli police saying the man committed suicide, while the driver’s family claim he was lynched by Israelis.

The post 3 US & 1 UK Rabbis Killed, 8 Injured In Attack At Jerusalem Synagogue appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Burying The Past: A New Beginning For Pakistan And Afghanistan – Analysis

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By Salma Malik

The newly-elected President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, while addressing a joint press conference at the end of his two-day visit to Pakistan, said “We must overcome the past…we will not permit the past to destroy the future.” It was indeed a very optimistic and pragmatic message for interested and watchful audiences not only in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but for all those keenly monitoring the transition Kabul is undergoing.

A three-pronged track that entails political, security and economic transition has already witnessed some progress on the political and security front, with the unity government finally coming into power after a months-long electoral impasse. On the security front, the signing of the US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) has provided a sense of certainty and laid to rest the speculations that there would be a complete troop withdrawal post 2014. Though US President Barack Obama had stated that 9800 troops would remain in Afghanistan from December 2014 till the 2016 complete withdrawal deadline, the final decision was dependent on the signing of the BSA.

Pakistan had strived to stand by its pledge regarding non-intervention and non-interference in Afghan affairs, and would have whole-heartedly accepted and honoured whatever the election outcome. Yet, many considered Ashraf Ghani as a more favourable candidate, primarily due to his relatively apolitical stature and technocratic background. Now, with Ghani as the president and Abdullah Abdullah as the chief executive officer (CEO) of Afghanistan, the biggest political challenge Kabul faces is the successful power balance between the two. The entire success of Afghanistan’s internal as well as external relations hinges on this single factor. Any crack in this relationship will strengthen the negative forces that are ever on a watch to exploit such opportunities.

Correspondingly, if there is political instability in Kabul, a factor the US has and will try its level best to prevent and secure, it will impact the physical security and economic situation – a scenario that neither Kabul nor any state party linked with Afghanistan can afford, least of them being Pakistan. A stable, secure and peaceful Afghanistan is as much in Islamabad’s interest as militancy-free, secure Pakistan is in Kabul’s.

The Afghan president’s visit to Pakistan was preceded by the Pakistani Army Chief General Raheel Sharif’s brief visit to Kabul, and Pakistani National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz’s day-long trip to Kabul, during which he extended Ghani an invitation to visit Pakistan. All three visits carried a similar tenor: overcoming the trust deficit, building positive relations and a common vision for a strong, enduring and comprehensive partnership between the two counties. These are not mere words but the key to the future of stability and peace between the two countries the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai termed as conjoined twins.

While there was a lot of talk regarding improving relations, an important factor that cannot be ignored is the pressing need to enhance cooperation in areas of counter-terrorism and other security issues. Both countries have long accused each other of lack of cooperation vis-à-vis terrorism, cross-border sanctuaries for terrorists as well as on border management. The Pakistani military’s Operation Zarb-e-Azab has been declared successful in flushing out militants from the troubled North Waziristan agency, as well as in making the space uninhabitable for elements such as the Haqqani Network, which even the US military grudgingly acknowledged. However, with the security situation still fluid inside Afghanistan and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), despite years of training, not yet strong enough to address these pressing challenges, unless there is a coordinated approach to tackle terrorism and militancy, both countries will be at a loss; and it is by no means a simple task, given the many stakes involved.

With terror outfits now more adaptable and open to embracing emerging actors and trends such as the Islamic State whose ideology is more far lethal and destructive than all the previous non-state actors’, there is very little time to lose and the need is for reducing the incentive for such elements to gain physical and ideological space. Pakistan’s proposal to offer security and defence cooperation and training opportunities to Afghanistan have been received positively. As the two heads of governments together enjoyed Afghanistan win an exhibition cricket match, there also exists the realisation that better economic cooperation, joint ventures in energy and trade corridors and increased investment in infrastructural development leading to sustainable development and provides a viable alternative to conflict economy is the smart response to the poor governance indicators and the prolonging of conflict. For a prosperous and secure future, there is a need to not only overcome but also not revisit the past and work together to defeat the odds that are not only internal but have external sources as well.

Salma Malik
Assistant professor, Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University

The post Burying The Past: A New Beginning For Pakistan And Afghanistan – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Empowering Women Is Smart Approach To Sustainable Development – OpEd

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By Dr Shamshad Akhtar*

Change is in the air: today women have better access to education, health services and jobs, as well as a greater voice in parliaments. Progress, however, in women’s empowerment has been slow and uneven. Growth and development gains have not been shared equally, both across the globe and within regions, with development gaps wider for poor and ethnic groups and those at the lower end of the income strata. Violence, conflicts and climate adversities have disproportionately impacted women, magnifying gender injustice and vulnerabilities.

Greater integration of women in the labour market – at all levels and in all sectors – is key to equitable, inclusive and sustainable development and is a legitimate right of women. Even though women constitute 50 per cent of Asia-Pacific’s total working age population, their participation in formal employment is uniformly lower than that of men. In many countries in the region, the national female employment-to-population ratios are below 50 per cent, which is not the case for men. And in some countries, the female employment-to-population ratio drops below 30 per cent. Moreover, the contribution of women to the economies of Asia and the Pacific, through household and informal sector labour, is recognized but unrecorded in the national accounts.

Gender-based discrimination is pervasive and goes beyond labour force participation, as social and cultural taboos perpetuate discriminatory and restrictive traditional gender roles in different aspects of women’s and men’s lives. There is a cost to gender discrimination and inequality. UN estimates reveal that low participation by Asia-Pacific women in the labour market bears an opportunity cost of more than $89 billion each year. In South Asia and Central Asia, for example, the lower employment rates of women result in an average national income loss of nearly 19 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively. A World Bank analysis illustrates that if women’s economic activity were on par with men’s, economic growth in many Asia-Pacific countries could increase by as much as 18 per cent.

Equally disconcerting are trends in key Asia-Pacific social indicators. For instance, the region accounts for close to 40 per cent of the world’s maternal deaths, up to 70 per cent of women experience violence during their lifetimes, female literacy levels in some pockets of South and South West Asia are below 50 per cent, and women’s participation in national legislatures is, in too many instances, below 10 per cent.

2015 marks the 20th anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, which is the global agenda for achieving gender equality and advancing the status of women and girls. As part of the 20-year review, Governments in Asia and the Pacific have identified women’s economic empowerment, political participation and the elimination of violence as fundamental to our future, and a priority for achieving gender equality in the region.

Policy makers, undoubtedly, need to wrestle with a host of issues in order for women and men, girls and boys, to have equal opportunities, to fully and freely exercise their rights and to be able to exercise choice and self-determination, without being discriminated against on the basis of their sex. Strategic measures for enhancing women’s economic empowerment range from strengthening and enforcing legislation to initiatives that promote decent work and work-life balance for both women and men by, among other measures, broadening the base of financial inclusion and delivering targeted programmes and services that improve social indicators.

Next week, at the “Asian and Pacific Conference on Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment: Beijing+20 Review”, ministers and other policy-makers from across the region will have the opportunity to renew their political commitment to empower women and advance their status in all sectors. Integral to the discussions will be adopting, strengthening and enforcing policies and legislation that mandate equality of rights and opportunities for women and men. Measures for addressing the elimination of violence against women, promoting women’s leadership and political participation, mainstreaming gender across the government sector (including gender-responsive budgeting), and advancing effective and coordinated institutional mechanisms for greater gender equality are just some of the specific issues that will be addressed next week in Bangkok.

Providing an impetus to the debate, the G20, which includes eight countries from the Asia-Pacific region, has called for reducing the gap between female and male labour force participation in their countries by 25 per cent. Realization of this goal by 2025 – no small feat – would add 100 million more women to the labour force. Asia and the Pacific could lead the way in this area. Facilitating women’s integration in formal employment, governments and the private sector need to, for instance, embrace flexible working hours and telework; tailor tax systems based on personal income (rather than family incomes); and provide high-quality affordable child and elderly care services. Such measures reflect a growing global and regional commitment to increasing the rates and quality of women’s participation in the workforce.

Equally important is challenging the underlying stereotypes and assumptions about childbearing, parenting and the roles of women and men in the home and in the workplace. In particular, the needs and interests of vulnerable groups of women workers – such as domestic workers, migrant workers, informal sector workers and rural workers – need to be addressed. Traditional gender roles that confine women to caring, cashiering, cleaning, catering and clerical work must be revisited, if the ‘glass ceiling’ is ever to be fully dismantled and the ‘sticky floor’ cleaned.

Significant and substantive gains for women’s economic empowerment, and for gender equality more generally, require more resources, greater accountability, stronger partnerships and institutions, and better regional cooperation. The Asia-Pacific Beijing+20 Conference offers a valuable opportunity for our region to celebrate women and to recognize their value, both as a matter of human rights and for our shared prosperity.

*The author is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). She is also the UN’s Sherpa for the G20 and previously served as Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan and Vice President of the MENA Region of the World Bank.

The post Empowering Women Is Smart Approach To Sustainable Development – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sri Lanka: Are Indian Concerns On Chinese Naval Presence Justified? – Analysis

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By N Sathiya Moorthy

Three Chinese naval vessels calling on Sri Lankan ports in over six months – two of them submarines that can only be offensive platforms – and sections of the Indian strategic community is disturbed once again. They are even more concerned about Colombo’s purported nonchalance to India’s concerns, expressed to visiting Sri Lankan Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, brother of the nation’s President who was reportedly called in mainly for the purpose a couple of weeks ago.

It’s not known if Sri Lanka had informed India about the Chinese naval visits, or if it is required by security protocols or precedents between the two. If not, did Sri Lanka make any effort at concealing/downplaying the Chinese naval visits from India or the rest of the world? Three, does India have reasons to believe that anything secretive might have happened with or on board these vessels that should be of concern, now or later?

If the answers to these questions are convincing, there is no reason for the Indian strategic community to keep talking about the ‘China bogey’ all the time, as if they could not afford to miss any opportunity to flag it – real and imaginary. India is far away and far ahead from 1962, and they can trust the Indian security apparatus (of which most of them were a part until the day before) to do what is needed under the circumstances. The same may go with truant neighbours, if any.

‘Cautious optimism’ has been the key to India’s military preparedness in dealings, whether with China or Pakistan. Barring the singular fiasco, which is often attributed to mis-judgment and mis-communication on the Indian side, even the 1962 debacle could have been averted in military terms. Or, at least that is what many in the Indian strategic community have come to believe – talk and write about.

If India were to feel threatened by every Chinese movement – political, diplomatic, economic or military, whether land or sea – no Indian can sleep in peace, now or ever. The situation has not reached remotely there. If nothing else, for every sleepless night that Indians might end up having, there will be another – and possibly the same – that every Chinese too would be experiencing, if provoked.

‘String of Pearls’ and after

The ‘China bogey’ in India got a fresh lease of life with the ‘String of Pearls’ theory floated in the US. The String did not leave out even Africa as a ‘neighbour’ of sorts for India, which again it claimed China could choke. If that were so, China could choke the whole of Indian Ocean sea-lanes, and no nations or their trade and naval vessels could escape it. Or, they would have had to fight it out together or separately against China. India would not be the lone and targeted victim.

There can be no denying China’s increased economic engagement with India’s immediate neighbours, no exception. So are India’s new-found western friends and allies, who too have apprehensions about China’s ‘economic expansionism’ in India’s neighbourhood. Like China, they too have been making tentative economic and military approaches in and to these countries – but as much behind the back of India. India’s strategic community is either ignorant or silent about them.

India too is ‘falling prey’ to such Chinese ‘economic expansionism’. Among other infrastructure projects in India, China, for instance, is said to be undertaking a feasibility study for the Rs 2.25-lakh crore ‘bullet train’ project between capital Delhi and the historically-important southern port-city of Chennai, cutting across much of the Indian land-mass. Other Chinese investments and imports too are in the pipeline.

India is thus in no position to tell the neighbours not to take help from China. Why, none of the ‘western adversaries of China’ (?) can say so, to or of any other nation. China’s economic and fiscal dominance in the global theatre is complete. Despite predictions and publicised reports, there is nothing to suggest that it’s going to happen the day after, if not tomorrow.

National self-interest

India’s neighbours will possibly take a much longer time to catch up with the rest of the world in terms of development and growth, and consequent levels of political stability, without massive external aid in whatever form. In the foreseeable future, India, for instance, is not going to be anywhere near the kind of economic prosperity required to willingly replace China in that department – at least in this part of the world, even limiting India’s needs and ambitions for once.

Where India’s friends are involved with India’s neighbours, they too are not promoting India’s cause – or, a ‘collective cause’ – in the Indian neighbourhood. They have their ‘supreme national self-interest’ in making those investments – political, diplomatic or defence – and they cannot be blamed for it. China has its own priorities, and it’s no different from those of other nations investing in the Indian neighbourhood.

There is a singular and very significant difference between China and other third-nation investors in India’s neighbourhood, yes. It is about the two nations sharing 3408 km of disputed border, only a little above the 3323 km border with Pakistan – but much less than the 4097 km border with a much smaller neighbour in Bangladesh. But unlike in the case of Bangladesh, whose creation however India has assisted militarily, the China border was by itself at the centre of a military conflict over half a century ago. The embers refuse to die down, and there are enough episodes, peoples and nations around to stoke them from time to time, whatever the reason. The competitive media, their commissioned analysts or their ill-informed, google-educated talk-show hosts and guests, as the case may be, cannot be left out, either.

Time of China’s choosing

It’s not only about Sri Lanka — or Maldives — or any of the other Indian Ocean neighbours. Even India’s land neighbours (with no exception) are not free from ‘Chinese influence’. The new Afghan President Ashrat Ghani chose China as his first overseas destination. Predecessor Hamid Karzai had visited India as his first overseas post after assuming office.

Keeping Pakistan aside, Indian concerns about the excessive Chinese economic presence and influence in the immediate South Asian neighbourhood relates possibly to the kind of political influence that China could bring to bear on those nations at a time and occasion of its choosing. In the ‘Cold War’ era, the US was India’s concern in the South Asian neighbourhood – only the player, not the causes for those concerns have changed.

It does not mean that the US has now taken India into confidence on all of its doings and un-doings in South Asia. Nor has Russia, which professes continued respect and friendship – bordering on affection – for India. It is true of the UK, the EU, Japan and every other friend of India who have dealings with and in India’s neighbourhood. India does not have to get exceptionally worked up over China.

Uniquely placed

On the flip-side and flowing from the US-China parallel during and after the ‘Cold War’, India too needs to re-visit its neighbourhood strategy, to think for and like them, if it has to have them on their side, now and ever. India is uniquely placed as an existing regional power and emerging super-power (whenever that happens). It has neighbours who are much smaller in every which way, and whose only strength is their ‘sovereignty’ to fall back upon.

The neighbours’ awe for India and its achievements (starting with ‘unity in diversity’) is matched only by their suspicions of India, and their unilateral and unsubstantiated perception of India’s designs for/on them. They see India as much as a ‘big brother’ as they look up to it as an ‘elder brother’. The dividing line is thin and is inter-changeable without effort.

The average Indian’s inconsistency – even more than India’s inconsistency, if any — in approaching and dealing with the neighbours creates problems that are easy to create, difficult to erase. The reverse is equally true, but that’s where the big-small syndrome plays itself out. In a way, India needs the neighbours as much – or even much more – than they need India. India needs to win over their confidence as much as they too have to do.

It’s a two-way street. Truth be told bluntly, just because India has concerns, flowing from third-nation interventionist agendas (as Indians see them), the neighbours are only going to exploit them. It’s in the nature of international relations, more so in the case of big-small bilateral equations of the kind. Indian nonchalance in the matter at least up to a point could change it, if there is anything that could do it. Hyper-ventilated over-reaction do the reverse.

Learning from Cold War era

India is yet to learn from the ‘Cold War’ era, where it took its strategic decisions independent of its neighbours, and seldom took them into confidence – but expected them to leave it all to India. Post-Cold War, the sources of Indian concerns have changed, so have its friends and partners from outside the South Asian region. Yet, there is nothing to suggest that it has taken to winning over neighbours as ‘strategic friends and partners’ in the first instance, before going elsewhere.

These are also nations, which either out of history or habit or purely domestic political competition and compulsions, end up seeing India as the only possible source of external threat, if at all there is any – in military terms. In political terms, some of them had the erstwhile Soviet Union in their sight. Now, some of them feel equally bothered by the West, more in political terms and their ideology-driven approaches.

For India, it was the US during the ‘Cold War’ years or China that was/is the cause of concern. In context, neither has the perceptions of the neighbours changed wholly for them to view the world through the Indian prism, nor has India’s approach in taking them on to its side, wholly and whole-heartedly. In a way, they continue to be dead-locked, with none to acknowledge it as such.

‘Strategic confidence’

In the matter of Chinese naval vessels, including submarines, calling on Sri Lankan ports, for instance, they are not the only ones to do so in the past so many years. During the long years and decades of Sri Lanka’s ‘ethnic wars’, the LTTE’s ‘Sea Tigers’ effectively ensured that no friendly/logistic-support visits of the kind could happen.

Post-war, since 2010, some 250 naval vessels from across a wide spectrum of nations have berthed at Sri Lankan ports. If Indians have to suspect Sri Lanka in the matter of Chinese naval vessels calling at its ports, then they would have to suspect a host of other nations from all corners of the world, not all of them being excessively friendly towards India. It is another matter that Indian naval vessels are included in this – though they stand out on a totally different equation altogether.

It’s in this background the current Chinese naval vessels’ calling on at Sri Lankan ports need to be looked at – without India lowering its guard at any time and yet working with Sri Lanka and other neighbours to build and/or improve bilateral/multilateral regional/sub-regional strategic openness and confidence. Still, it would only be a beginning but a constructive beginning at that!

(The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter)

The post Sri Lanka: Are Indian Concerns On Chinese Naval Presence Justified? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ford Recalls 65,000 Fusion Sedans Over Ignition Key Problem

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Ford on Tuesday, Nov 18, said it is recalling about 65,000 Fusion sedans in North America because the key can be removed from the ignition even if the car is not in the “park” position 30 minutes after the ignition is off, Reuters reported.

Ford said it is not aware of any injuries or crashes as a result of this issue.

This is caused by a programming fault in the instrument cluster of the sedans, Ford said.

Affected are some 2014 and 2015 model year Fusion sedans, including Ford’s primary version as well as Energi and hybrid versions built through Oct 31.

Ford said about 56,500 of the Fusion sedans under the recall are registered in the United States, about 6,000 in Canada and about 2,350 in Mexico.

Cars brought into dealerships will have part of the vehicle computers reprogrammed, at no cost.

The Fusion is Ford’s best-selling sedan in the U.S. market. Its sales through October this year were about 250,000, up 20 percent from the first 10 months of last year.

The post Ford Recalls 65,000 Fusion Sedans Over Ignition Key Problem appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Colombia: Church Calls For Resumption Of Peace Talks

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Monsignor Luis Augusto Castro Quiroga, Archbishop of Tunja and chairman of the Bishops Conference, called for the release of General Rubén Darío Álzate and a resumption of peace talks between the government and FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) in Cuba.

“I appeal to the guerrilla and government to do everything possible to overcome this situation of impasse”, said Monsignor Castro Quiroga.

President Juan Manuel Santos on Sunday announced the suspension of the peace talks, accusing the FARC of the General’s abduction. The negotiations began two year ago in Havana.

The post Colombia: Church Calls For Resumption Of Peace Talks appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Civil War And Ebola – Analysis

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Is there a two-way connection between Ebola outbreaks and civil war? Tanisha Fazal thinks so. If the current crisis is undermining the already precarious infrastructures of fragile, violence-prone states, and if past Ebola outbreaks are anything to go by, then the nations now being assaulted by the virus are indeed headed for trouble.

By Tanisha M. Fazal

As the Ebola crisis may (or may not) be reaching a containment phase, it is critical to consider what conditions may have enabled its outbreak. Epidemiologists are hard at work identifying mutations and transmissions. What they may miss, however, is a troubling connection between civil war and Ebola.

Of the 32 sub-Saharan African states to have experienced internal armed conflict since 1976, nearly a third have also experienced Ebola outbreaks. If we were to look at a map of where in sub-Saharan Africa Ebola has struck since it was first identified in 1976, the virus might appear to be tracking ongoing and recent civil wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo (1976), Gabon (1996), Uganda (2000), Gabon again (2001), Congo (2002) to today’s outbreak in West Africa. Civil war enables the spread of disease – especially viruses as stubborn as Ebola – by destroying physical and personal infrastructure.

The destruction of infrastructure after civil war

For example, prior to the start of over a decade of civil war in Liberia, there were 293 clinics in country. By the end of the civil war over 80 percent of these clinics had been looted or damaged. According to one report, Liberia had 237 physicians in country in 1989, 89 by 1998, and fewer than 20 in 2003. With assistance, this number had climbed significantly by 2013, but was still well short of the public health infrastructure that would be needed to identify and contain an Ebola outbreak. Sierra Leone’s medical infrastructure was similarly devastated by civil war. A 2008 survey of Sierra Leonean hospitals found that most had either no or interrupted oxygen and electricity and half had no running water. Only one hospital had more than one native surgeon.

Other infrastructure, such as roads, also suffered during the war. According to USAID, the destruction of Liberia’s transportation infrastructure during the civil war was so severe that Liberia went from being a net exporter of rice to importing nearly all of its rice, because transportation routes from the capital to rural areas were severed . Stop signs and traffic lights were destroyed in the war. Sierra Leone also saw a significant drop in usable roads as a result of its civil war.

The destruction of interpersonal trust is as important in understanding the spread of disease as the ravaging of public infrastructure. Trust in government typically falls after civil war. One study found that Ugandan social capital decreased markedly after the civil war ended, while ethnic cleavages increased. Similar results have been found in Nepal and the Balkans (on the other hand, another study found that Sierra Leoneans who had been victimized during the civil war were more politically active than those who had not been victimized). Interpersonal trust is much more difficult to measure than physical infrastructure, and research on this topic in post-conflict environments is evolving. It may be, for example, that ethnic and/or territorial civil wars are more likely to leave a legacy of mistrust than other types of civil wars. But even if civil war can produce surprising levels of postwar political participation, it should also produce high levels of wariness amongst the population – particularly when it comes to strangers.

Distrust of health care workers in ongoing and post-conflict zones is evident in the challenges faced by polio immunization campaigns inPakistan and Nigeria, where aid workers have been gunned down by militants in recent years. Aid and health care workers are frequently targeted in conflict and post-conflict zones, including Afghanistan, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. These incidents further degrade already faltering health care systems.

Poor infrastructure and the spread of Ebola

With outbreaks like the ongoing Ebola crisis in West Africa, these background conditions quickly come to the foreground. A lack of good roads prevents health care workers from entering affected regions. To be sure, poor transportation infrastructure could hinder or help an outbreak; patients will have a harder time getting medical assistance, but the difficulty of getting to certain areas might also facilitate containment. Rather than celebrating bad roads that condemn entire villages, however, a better solution would be to have both good roads and good medical resources available. Moreover, even though poor roads hinder access to rural areas, what has been most dangerous about this outbreak is the presence of Ebola in large West African cities.

A lack of hospitals, clinics, and medical personnel prevents the afflicted from receiving the care they require. Compounding these problems are cultural beliefs that do not include the germ theory of disease. Add to the mix local norms ofhugging, touching dead bodies at funerals, and faith healing, and you have multiple new networks of transmission.

The lack of social trust after civil war further aggravates attempts to contain and treat the disease. Aid workers and health facilities have been threatened and attacked on multiple occasions during this Ebola outbreak. These incidents include attacks on an Ebola facility and the homes of Ebola victims in Liberia, threats against Red Cross workers in Sierra Leone, and the murder of eight health workers in Guinea. This additional danger to health care workers already taking on the risky job of caring for Ebola patients in countries with minimal public health infrastructure has almost certainly depressed the number of medical volunteers to address this outbreak.

Health care workers in personal protective equipment that resembles spacesuits are likely to be extremely frightening, especially in cultures where the germ theory of disease is not widely accepted and thus there is no obvious explanation for the use of this equipment. To hand over a loved one, or even bodily fluids, under these conditions is as understandably terrifying as it may be medically necessary. In retrospect, recent attacks on health care workers are perhaps unsurprising. Individuals who do not believe in the germ theory of disease will almost surely hold some other theory of transmission. In post-conflict societies, this theory might be one that blames former enemies. Unknown aid workers – strangers – coming to your door to offer care could therefore be very suspect.

It is difficult to know whether and to what extent additional resources for health care could have mitigated the effects of this outbreak. Scientists still do not know enough about the origins of Ebola to have prevented its recurrence. Moreover, it presents similarly to Lassa fever, another hemorrhagic virus, and is also mutating very quickly. But what we do know is that health aid accounted for a mere three to six percent (on average) of post-conflict aid to Liberia and Sierra Leone through 2010. Increasing this percentage may be a first step to preventing, or at least mitigating, future outbreaks.

Ebola and future civil wars?

The Ebola outbreak has captured international attention, especially so when the virus travelled to North America and Western Europe. But it is by no means the only infectious disease that can spread rapidly and fatally, particularly during and after civil war. HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis are already prevalent in Africa and also require constant monitoring. Previous research has suggested that improving a country’s health infrastructure post-conflict can increase government legitimacy and economic development . Investment in such infrastructure may also be critical to preventing global pandemics. Thus, wealthy governments should be extremely interested in making such investments; it is in their national interest to do so.

Just as the destruction of public and personal infrastructure in civil war enabled the spread of Ebola, the current outbreak has ravaged the already-precarious health infrastructure of affected countries. Another danger to guard against today is the possibility of renewed civil war. Projections for economic development as well as confidence in government in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea are dangerously low, and the Director-General of the World Health Organization has suggested that these outbreaks could lead to state failure or collapse. In addition to providing emergency relief, then, the international community must commit, along with the governments of Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea, to rebuilding a public health infrastructure that can contain the disease both medically and politically. Failure to do so could lead to as many indirect as direct future victims of Ebola.

Tanisha M. Fazal is Associate Professor of Political Science and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame.

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The Statesman As Ubermensch: A Nietzschean Perspective On Kissinger – Analysis

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By Greg R. Lawson*

It is now not uncommon to find those with knowledge to consider both of the last two American Presidents as far from ideal Statesmen. This raises the suitability of the question regarding what is a good Statesman. In some ways it as if the question is now emerging from hibernation to become increasingly urgent as we look forward in a world where the post- Cold War illusion of Kantian Peace seems to have given way to the old Hobbesian jungle. Technocratic, bureaucratic responses seem no longer overly relevant. A Statesman must know how to lead, how to strategize, and, most importantly, how to create. For Statemanship is as much, or as I will argue, more an art than a science. So who and what lessons can we take in an era where leaders swing violently back and forth along a pendulum between hubristic overextension and ideologically blinkered retrenchment? What lessons can we learn in a world where our institutions of higher learning attempt to quantify everything, even the very nature of man himself?

As with so much recent American diplomatic history, one can make a cogent argument that an answer can be found in the person of Henry Kissinger. Not only is he, arguably, the most famous former Secretary of State of the past half century purely within the foreign policy arena (Colin Powell and Hillary Clinton representing multiple personas within the public eye), but, like the venerable George F. Kennan, Kissinger is an intellectual giant complete with a unique insight as a practicing historian prior to entering the halls of power.

It is likely that more ink has been spilled explaining the intellectual formation and views of Kissinger than any other Secretary of State in United States history. Kissinger was an immigrant. He was a Jew whose family fled Nazi Germany before the full horrors of the Holocaust were unleashed, though he did lose family members in Concentration Camps. It is an amazing testament to America’s willingness to embrace immigrants that a man like Kissinger could have ever even have been within sight of significant government power, much less become one of it’s most significant non-Presidential wielders of it. Kissinger himself fully acknowledges this.

While much is made of Kissinger’s admiration for the Concert of Europe’s nearly century of balance power in the wake of the Napoleonic wars and his respect for the Austrian master of diplomacy Metternich; there is far more at work in Kissinger’s thought.

As a German, Kissinger was well acquainted with many of the philosophers that filled that nation’s immense pantheon of giants including Hegel, Kant, and Nietzsche. It is only natural that he would be greatly influenced by their respective works. Indeed, many historians have analyzed Kissinger’s early work, particularly his gargantuan 400 page undergraduate thesis cum magnum ops, “The Meaning of History: Reflections on Spengler, Toynbee, and Kant.” Most have come away either asserting that he imbibed the tragic spirit of Oswald Spengler or, ironically given his identification with the realpolitik school of international relations, the idealism of Kant. He was either a tragic determinist or obsessed with the inner mechanism through which man can create meaning for himself.

Studious observers have to acknowledge that while Kissinger found much of interest in Spengler, he ultimately found Spengler’s organic determinism flawed. It left no room for creativity and no room for man’s inner ability to assign meaning to his experiences. In fact, in “The Meaning of History,” Kissinger baldly states man imparts his own meaning to history, though it is through his inward experience where he learns both his limitations and worth.

This partial embrace of Kant, however, seems not to take us as far as it should in understanding much of what Kissinger later presented in both his historical and policy writing, nor how he seemed to act when wielding power.

It seems many scholars have had a tendency to overlook that the spirit of that other most famous, or infamous, of German thinkers, Nietzsche. The spirit of a man that once proclaimed that, “I am no man. I am dynamite” seems alive and well in Kissinger. This may seem surprising given that Kissinger desired to be a builder. A builder of order would seem quite the opposite from someone that revels in intellectual bombast and the ruthless destruction of fashionable intellectual shibboleths. Yet, for anyone familiar with the works of Nietzsche, it is difficult not to sense the deeply engrained romanticism he embodied. He clung to it tenaciously even as he fought, and arguably succumbed to, nihilism.

Nietzsche is well known for many ideas, but it is the concept of “Ubermensch” or “Overman” that may well be his most controversial addition to the Western philosophical canon. Many slings and arrows have been aimed at his reputation due largely to the bastardization of this concept by the Nazis as part of their eugenic racial philosophy. Though easy to see why this is the case in an era where careful reading and appropriate contextualization is often thrown out the window, it should be pointed out that there was nothing remotely racial in Nietzsche’s original conception. Rather, the Ubermensch is one “Who has organized the chaos of his passions, given style to his character, and become creative. Aware of life’s terrors, he affirms life without resentment.”

The Ubermensch was intended to be the apotheosis of creativity, of man’s ability to transcend the abyss of meaninglessness in a world where Nieztsche famously proclaimed “God is Dead.”

Consider this, section from Nietzsche’s own magnum opus, Thus Spake Zarathustra,

I tell you: one must still have chaos within oneself to give birth to a dancing star.

Also consider, from Beyond Good and Evil:

He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you.

It is the ability to stare into the void and not yield that represents the strength of Nietzsche’s Ubermensch. It is also his ability to embrace the very complexity of his own chaotic soul and to create out of this chaos something of beauty that gives him purpose and allows him to be a guiding light in a world where creativity is increasingly sapped.

If the Ubermensch is Nietzsche’s hope for a man that can transcend his limits, then it is the “Last Man” that shows the end state of a man that has lost the ability to repulse even himself. From Thus Spake Zarathustra:

“Lo! I show you the Last Man.

“What is love? What is creation? What is longing? What is a star?” — so asks the Last Man, and blinks.

The earth has become small, and on it hops the Last Man, who makes everything small. His species is ineradicable as the flea; the Last Man lives longest.

“We have discovered happiness” — say the Last Men, and they blink.

They have left the regions where it is hard to live; for they need warmth. One still loves one’s neighbor and rubs against him; for one needs warmth.

Turning ill and being distrustful, they consider sinful: they walk warily. He is a fool who still stumbles over stones or men!

A little poison now and then: that makes for pleasant dreams. And much poison at the end for a pleasant death.

One still works, for work is a pastime. But one is careful lest the pastime should hurt one.

One no longer becomes poor or rich; both are too burdensome. Who still wants to rule? Who still wants to obey? Both are too burdensome.

No shepherd, and one herd! Everyone wants the same; everyone is the same: he who feels differently goes voluntarily into the madhouse.

‘Formerly all the world was insane,’ — say the subtlest of them, and they blink.

They are clever and know all that has happened: so there is no end to their derision. People still quarrel, but are soon reconciled — otherwise it upsets their stomachs.

They have their little pleasures for the day, and their little pleasures for the night, but they have a regard for health.

‘We have discovered happiness,’ — say the Last Men, and they blink.”

The Last Men have lost their inspiration, their sense of artistry, their creativity. Even Francis Fukuyama, in his own magnum opus, “The End of History and the Last Man,” often known as the height of post-Cold War triumphalism, acknowledged that the fear of this pitiable creature may be enough to re-start the engine of history. This often overlooked element of his thinking actually raises much more interesting and profound questions than the rest of his Hegelian via Kojeve work. Note this,

The life of the last men is one of physical security and material plenty, precisely what Western politicians are fond of promising their electorates…

Should we fear that we will be both happy and satisfied with our situation, no longer human beings but animals of the species homo sapiens?

This is a serious warning regarding the end state of liberal, capitalist democracy as exemplified in Europe and, increasingly, in the U.S. It also raises serious questions about the quality of Statesmanship the West can look forward to in the future. Indeed, with the increasing challenge to the Western order raised by authoritarian capitalist states like Russia and China as well as the clear process of breakdown of the Westphalian state system, the need for Statesmanship has not been greater since the collapse of the Soviet Union, now nearly a quarter of a century ago.

It is not common to think of Statesman as artists. Usually Statesmen are conceived as simple politicians that may share characteristics with a sports coach at best or a talented bureaucrat. Yet, these types of figures are typically tethered to the status quo. Artists, by contrast, can exist and transcend their merely corporeal limitations. They leave monuments to posterity in their sculpture, their paintings, poems, novels, and architecture. The greatest of them leave even establish new horizons for future generations to explore. Isn’t this what Homer or Dante did? Or what Da Vinci and Michelangelo did. They used their creativity to shape inert objects and create things of such staggering aesthetic value that even centuries later, they have yet to be eclipsed. Though it can arguably be said that in the true long duree, this will fade.

Reading between the lines of much of Kissinger’s work, one senses that a Statesman can be an artist too. Rather than asculptor with his chisel and stone or a painter with his brush and canvas; a Statesman has his diplomatic toolkit with balances of power, war, peace, and order acting as their respective canvases.

How artistic a conception of statecraft are these quotes from Kissinger’s graduate thesis, A World Restored, dedicated to the craft of both Lord Castlereagh and Prince Metternich:

The heroic figures are those who construct new worlds for themselves, who look into the abyss and choose to try to bring order out of chaos or die trying.”

There is a sense of a beauty in this conception of a Statesman. However, Kissinger, ever the European, ever the Jew who fled the flames of Concentration Camp immolation, there is also the inescapable sense of tragedy also embedded within his view. The very next line from the quote above touches on this,

Yet, even those who successfully establish new codes, new laws, new orders cannot truly overcome the fundamental purposelessness of the cosmos.

The tragic element of human life is that there is no cure for humanity’s condition.

The implication here seems less to embody Kant’s idealism as so many researchers of Kissinger posit and seems to veer much closer to Spenglerian determinism. Yet for the attentive reader, the imprint of the great iconoclast Nietzche is impossible not to see.

In his first set of memoirs, The White House Years, Kissinger once again borders on an explicit Nietzschean commentary:

The statesman’s responsibility is to struggle against transitoriness and not to insist that he be paid in the coin of eternity. He may know that history is the foe of permanence; but no leader is entitled to resignation. He owes it to his people to strive, to create, and to resist the decay that besets all human institutions.

Here too, it strains an attentive ear not to note the distinct perception of the Statesman as an almost Nietzschean, “Ubermensch.” Even if futile, his responsibility is to create new values after staring into the proverbial abyss.

A Statesman must confront the chaos of disorder in international relations. Indeed, anarchy lies at the core of the “Realist” school Kissinger is oft identified as being such an exemplar. But through that chaos, a Statesman must maintain their artistic inclinations, even if that the coin of eternity must, axiomatically, rust.

Kissinger pursues variations of this theme in other works, including a 1968 piece in the journal Daedalus, The White Revolutionary, on Bismarck. Again, one senses the admiration of creativity that was such a pivotal feature of Bismarck’s diplomacy and his greatness.

Even the most avowedly conservative position can erode the political or social framework if it smashes its restraints; for institutions are designed for an average standard of performance- a high average in fortunate societies, but still a standard reducible to approximate norms. They are rarely able to accommodate genius of demoniac power

…The impact of genius on institutions is bound to be unsettling, of course. The bureaucrat will consider originality as unsafe, and genius will resent the constrictions of routine.

It is a clear respect that Kissinger has for genius and its ability to shatter the dullness inherent in standardized bureaucracies meant only to accommodate the mean of societal possibility. Again, though, the tragic emerges to balance the beauty, or, perhaps, in a way, to augment it.

Kissinger alludes to the fact that a nation that requires a genius in every generation is likely doomed for they are not necessarily frequent in occurrence nor are they always recognized by their societies.

Though giving birth to “dancing stars” may seem a rhetorically extravagant way of saying one is creating an art, philosophy, or even a religion; it also cuts to a pivotal component of such activities.

We return again to what it means to be an artist, especially an artist wearing the clothes, of a Statesman. As Machiavelli once said,

When evening comes, I go back home, and go to my study. On the threshold I take off my work clothes, covered in mud and filth, and put on the clothes an ambassador would wear. Decently dressed, I enter the ancient courts of rulers who have long since died. There I am warmly welcomed, and I feed on the only food I find nourishing, and was born to savor.”

So donning such wears as those of an ambassador, the Statesman as artist or as Ubermensch, seeks to go forward to create. To do so, one must understand chaos and be willing to contemplate the abyss that so much of human history has confronted, and often been swallowed by. Is it through a sense of the chaotic and tragic, that one can understand how to create? Bloodstained page after bloodstained page of history on occasion yield a respite. These are usually the creation of an enterprising leader that knows how to turn blood into wine. Think of Augustus Caesar who found a Rome made of brick and left it marble. Think of a Qin Shi Huangdi who ended the chaos of the Warring States Period to impose order. Think of aJustinian who nearly reconstituted a full Roman Empire. Think of a Charlemagne that temporarily resurrected something of the Western Roman Empire. Think of the warrior prophet Muhammad who created a new religion that would spawn multiple empires. Think of a steppe warrior named Temujin who would bring the factional Mongols together and unleash them to conquer the greatest land empire in history, even bequeathing a dynasty to the two millennium history of China.

Of course, this list can go on ad infinitum. Each of these leaders were indispensible in their capacity to create, even if what they created wrought destruction. Are these figures, in a profoundly deep sense similar to the artists referred to previously?

Kissinger, in his doctoral thesis, “A World Restored”, noted that Statesman can come in multiple stripes and hues. Some can erect long-standing edifices others essentially debase them:

But the claims of the prophet are sometimes as dissolving as those of the conqueror. For the claims of the prophet are acounsel of perfection, and perfection implies uniformity. Utopias are not achieved except by a process of leveling and dislocation which must erode all patterns of obligation. These are the two great symbols of the attacks on the legitimate order: the Conqueror and the Prophet, the quest for universality and for eternity, for the peace of impotence and the peace of bliss.

But the statesman must remain forever suspicious of these efforts, not because he enjoys the pettiness of manipulation, but because he must be prepared for the worst contingency.

Overall, these are not mere rhetorical flourishes. They are windows into Kissinger’s views and paint a portrait of a person long struggling to find meaning in life and a sense of transcendence. Yet, if all human existence is transitoriness, or as Kissinger says in his undergrad thesis,

Transitoriness is the fate of existence. No civilization has yet been permanent, no longing completely fulfilled. This is necessity, the fatedness of history, the dilemma of mortalit;

Does not a man become quite mired in the muck of human experience? Can he escape?

This is, ultimately an existential question. Nietzsche tried to accomplish this through creativity. Though often labeled a simple nihilist, Nietzsche was actually attempting to avoid succumbing to the emptiness inherent in a purely nihilistic view of the world. One can argue that he failed in this task and may well have become an even more thoroughgoing nihilist as aconsequence.

In a similar vein, it seems Kissinger; through the canvas of geopolitics and grand diplomacy, tried to impart his inner meaning onto the contours of the world and onto history. Kissinger attempted to connect philosophy and statesmanship in a meaningful way, something that many policymakers do not do in an age where empiricism and technocratic solutions seem paramount. Yet, Kissinger fundamentally acknowledged that a Statesman is not paid in the coin of eternity. It’s creation too fades in the sands of time proving, once more, the folly of Ozymandias.

Despite this tragic sensibility, the wise Statesman as Kissinger perceives him, the true “realist”, understands the limits of what he alone can do and hopes to follow Bismarck in waiting “until he hears the steps of God sounding through events, then leap up and grasp the hem of his garment.”

A statesman is an artist, not a technocrat. Temporary as his work might be, it remains his duty to create anew structures and patterns of relative peace and stability despite the vagaries of historical contingency. In this, the Statesman is arepresentative, perhaps even the exemplar par excellence, of the Ubermensch.

So even if haunted by the specter of no transcendence, trudge along like Nietzsche’s Zarathustra they must.

This brings us full circle to our present day where the world seems aflame with the atrophy of all that the West, particularly America, has taken for granted since the end of World War II. Our present leaders seem to seek the legal codification of order. In this, they may think they are creating a framework worthy of an artists’ conception. They may think they are perfecting that which is already the best there is, perhaps, fulfilling Fukuyama’s “End of History” despite seeming evidence to the contrary of its validity.

But it is unclear that law and order is the way of the world. Power still reigns and the “Better Angels of Nature” are not necessarily fluttering to our shoulder as Steven Pinker might say. No, rather than trying to improve a rickety edifice, a real Statesman would find a new order to create. Like Nieztsche’s Ubermensch, maybe even like the Machiavellian Prince, a real Statesman will stare into the abyss and accept those things most shudder from. They will become akin to a Shakespeare, not another Monster. For so long as it lasts, it can be a thing of beauty.

This is far from an easy task. It is also not a technical task that can be assigned an algebraic formula and emerge with a clear-cut, obvious answer. It will require sensitivity, subtlety, and intuition. It is an artist’s task. Kissinger’s life long corpus of work gives us insight into this notion as does our Nietzschean friend Zarathustra…

*Greg R. Lawson, Contributing Analyst, Wikistrat

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Why Ukraine Should Not Expect Financial Help From EU – OpEd

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Parliamentary elections in Ukraine on 26th October indicated that the country is on a Western path. But the euphoria many felt in Kiev after the end of Euromaidan protests may be replaced by hard realisation that not much has changed in Ukraine. The economy is in a dire place and is unlikely to improve any time soon. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to drop by 6.5 percent this year, while the National Bank of Ukraine foresees 2014 contraction to be at 8.3 percent. Another issue is the energy sector. Ukraine is required to increase natural gas and heating tariffs respectively by 56 and 40 percent for consumers in 2014, and by 20 to 40 percent annually from 2015 to 2017. At the same time, as gas prices sharply increase, gas subsidies for Ukrainians will be completely suspended over the next two years.

The saviour for Ukraine is supposed to be the European Union. But due to its own endemic problems, the EU is unlikely to step up and offer any substantial help required to drag Ukraine out of the rut. Even the coveted EU Association Agreement can create further pitfalls for the Ukrainian economy in the short to medium term.
The Free Trade Zone is expected to have a negative impact on the agricultural sector of Ukraine due to protective policies of the EU in this field. The prices of import goods would rise due to the abrogation of the 20% subsidy on exports and generally higher tariffs in the EU on imported goods.

In public the EU continues to show solid support for President Poroshenko and the Ukrainian parliament. Both are united in the condemnation of Russia’s activities. However in private the EU must be realising that turning Ukraine around is going to take a lot more effort than first anticipated. It’s debatable whether Europe has the stomach to pursue this challenge. Endemic post-Soviet corruption and the power of oligarchs that run the Ukrainian economy lead some in Brussels to wonder whether their current support will reap any visible positive results in Ukraine. A quote from one top EU official speaking recently to Reuters summed it up by claiming that Brussels was “waking up” to a need to better defend its own interests.

The main issue for the EU is that its own woeful economy makes it impossible to write blank cheques to Ukraine. Recently, the European Union cut its growth forecasts for this year and next, citing a lack of internal investment and political tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Now that growth in Germany has also declined, the euro area is on the verge of tipping into its third recession in six years.

Figures for the euro-zone economy are demoralising by any measure. An already feeble and faltering recovery is stumbling. Output across the euro area was flat in the second quarter. And now the sanctions war with Russia is adding more woes to European exports. In August, Germany exported goods to the value of €2.3 billion to the Russian Federation, a decline of 26.3 percent compared to August 2013. To add salt to injury, European Commission’s quarterly report on the euro area economy predicted at the beginning of the year that unless there are serious economic reforms, living standards in the eurozone, relative to the US, will be lower in 2023 than they were in the mid-1960s.

Ultimately, the EU already has far too many problems to deal with without the additional burden of pro-actively resuscitating Ukraine. Another prevalent issue is the rising Eurosceptic sentiment across the bloc. As austerity continues to be the dominant economic plan for many bloc members, supplying Ukraine with bags of money would be political suicide. Doing so would add further ammunition to Eurosceptic MEPs, who currently take up around one-third of the European parliament.

It is impossible to blame Ukrainians for craving a better future. This may eventually come, but in the meantime the country should prepare for very hard times ahead. For the foreseeable future, the European Union will not be able to carry the weight of Ukrainian problems on its fragile shoulders.

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Bosnia’s New Presidency: Still Divided – OpEd

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By Hamdi Fırat Büyük

Yesterday, the inauguration ceremony of the Bosnian Presidency was held in Sarajevo. Here, newly elected members of the Presidency, which is to be the first institution put into session after the October general elections, remarked on the platforms that would guide them over the next four years.

As with all other institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the Presidency is divided between the three major ethnic groups of Bosnia. These three new members of the Presidency are Bakir Izzetbegovic of the Muslim Bosniaks, Dragan Covic of the Croats and Mladen Ivanic of the Serbs.

In accordance with the Bosnian Constitution, the Chairman of the Presidency changes every eight months and in a meeting on the subject it was decided that Ivanic will be the first in line to fill this position for the upcoming session.

In his inaugural speech, Ivanic clearly emphasized that the Dayton Peace Agreement will act as a good frame of reference for the country in the long term despite the well-known opinions of the other two members of the Presidency to the contrary.

He added that the new members of the Presidency have many issues that they don’t agree on, but that in the next four years they will work on the areas where agreement does exist. Ivanic announced that one of the key issues they will prioritize is the “coordination mechanism”, which is essential for Bosnia in clearing its path to the EU.

“We must finally adopt this mechanism and I believe that the suggestion of Bakir Izetbegovic is close to a solution. It would open the perspective of Bosnia to get closer to the EU and it is of common interest to all of us”, said Ivanic.

Finally, as expected, the new Chairman told the press that he will defend the rights of Serb nationals all over Bosnia, not only in the Serb entity, Republika Srpska. Nonetheless, he also added that he will never jeopardize the equality that exists between the threeof other nations and emphasized that he is fully aware he was elected by the will of Republika Srpska citizens.

Bosniak leader Bakir Izzetbegovic, who is the most experienced of the three politicians and the only son of the founder of the country, Alija Izzetbegovic, said that it is time to move forward and reject mutual distrust and old fears, as these sentiments only beget unnecessary and unproductive polemics that divide the people and generate a negative atmosphere.

“We need an agreement and internal consensus for the future”, said Izetbegovic.

After the ceremony, Croat member of the Presidency, Dragan Covic, said that he will advocate changes to the BiH Constitution and the BiH Election law for a more productive future.

Even in this first gathering of the new members of the Presidency, disunity surfaced among the three regarding the country’s future. They have diametrically opposed visions especially in relation to the state system that was created by Dayton.

Bosniak and Croat members demand fundamental changes to the state system unlike the Serbs. It seems that Serbs are content with the status quo and do not want to lose their distinctive position in the country.

Moreover, many Bosnian Serbs want Republika Srpska to become officially independent or at least be granted a higher degree of autonomy, while many Bosnian Croats are strongly demanding a third entity of their own that stands alongside the Bosniak-dominated Federation, and Republika Srpska. Muslim Bosniaks, on the other hand, seek a central government with no autonomous regions or entities.

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How Is Israeli Society So Successful? – A Socio-Cultural Perspective

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By Büşra Nur Özgüler

The success of the Israeli society in itself cannot be underestimated despite Israel’s violation of international law and the certain democratic deficits in the country. Based on the observations gathered over a two-month stay in Israel, I would suggest that the reasons behind this success might be summarized under three main headings: loyalty to religion and traditions, keeping memories alive through rhetoric and symbols, and sedulity to achieve any objective.

The unifying power of religion and traditions

In Israel, and in Judaism in general, one of the most valuable activities is gathering together. In Jerusalem especially, Israeli society practices this activity every week from Friday evening to Saturday evening (Shabbat) by visiting the Western Wall (Kotel) and then by having a Shabbat dinner together with the entire family and sometimes with guests. At these dinners, usually consisting of six different courses, participants collectively readdress and reaffirm their religious and traditional values by singing and reading verses from the religious books of the Jewish faith. In addition to ruminating on spirituality in this respite from the ruction of everyday life, these gatherings provide an opportunity for traditions to be transmitted to the younger generations while also strengthening the links between family members.

Aside from the religious rituals, Jewish communities, which have emigrated from many different parts of the world, have still managed to hold on to their traditions, including their unique styles of dress. For instance, even today, Jews who came to Israel from the Former Soviet Union can be seen donning furry hats (shtreimels), which are also a type of religious symbol. This example serves to illustrate how religion and traditions are deeply intertwined in Israeli society.

When pondering the importance of tradition for Israeli society, the words of a tour guide in the Old City of Jerusalem should also be heeded: “Tradition is much more important than history or facts in our society.” For this reason, they have even evaded changing the name of the “King David Castle”, which was actually constructed by King Herod, not by King David; in reality, it was actually named by Crusaders who fortuitously misinterpreted the Bible. Even though it is known as a fact that this was not King David’s castle, it has not been renamed out of respect for tradition.

Even these few examples help to demonstrate how religious rituals and traditions have come to pervade the mainstream view point of Israeli society. Although there are certain discussions on the existence of conflicts between religious and secular Jews, or between traditional and modern Israelis, the gap between these groups is not very wide. Moreover, if we consider the increasing number of ultra-Orthodox Jews (Heradim) active in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), whose numbers expanded from the 200s to the 4,500s within a period of seven years, it could even be claimed that the gap between religious and secular Jews has actually been narrowing rather than widening at all.

Jewish rhetoric and memory

One of the most ubiquitous discourses in Israeli society revolves around the “Temple Mount” (Har haBayit), which Muslims call the “Noble Sanctuary” (Haram al-Sharif). Housing two of the most significant buildings of the Muslim religion, the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque, this area is the third holiest site of the Muslim faith. The site is also sacred for Jews seeing that the First and Second Temples were located here, and is therefore, referred to as the “Temple Mount” instead of the “Noble Sanctuary.” In this way, Jews intend to keep their memories alive by employing this rhetorical device.

Even though there is not a single tangible Jewish symbol on the site today, Jewish worshipers are still willing to pray there. Recent conflicts in Jerusalem have started with the reawakening of Jews’ demand to have full access to this site. There are eleven gates granting access to the site, ten of them for Muslims and one, the Mughrabi Gate, for Jews and tourists. In early October, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism proposed opening an additional entrance for Jews to the Temple Mount, through the Cotton Merchant’s Gate. This act has resulted in the eruption of violent clashes between Palestinian worshipers and Israeli security forces, ultimately bringing about the closure of the holy site altogether. Expecting an end to these kinds of conflicts in Jerusalem does not seem very realistic, especially when considering the Jewish rhetoric regarding certain historical sites that attempts to trump the sanctity Muslims may attribute to these sites.

Not only rhetoric, but also other powerful instruments play constructive roles in the Israeli society’s motivation to succeed. The Holocaust History Museum (Yad Vashem ) in Jerusalem can be regarded as the admonitory embodiment of what would happen if the Jewish people fail to attain success. Hosting inspirational stories, evocative exhibits and stunning design, the museum has the power not only to impress its visitors but also to create the Israeli nation’s point inception on which the society can build upon their achievements by embracing their history.

Another point that deserves mention is, despite the importance of collective understandings of society, the Israelis prioritize individuals as they believe that individual is the true building block of society. Such is a crystal clear reality within Israeli society, as indicated by this quotation from the Holocaust History Museum:

“Do not rush to fight and die… We need to save lives. It is more important to save Jews than to kill Germans.” –Tuvia Bielski

This understanding of the importance granted to the life of each and every Jew is one of the main components of the Israeli mindset, the individual occupies the center. Reflections of this approach can be seen in various cases. To illustrate with an example, in 2011, Israel released 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006 and held for five years.

Resolve for success

Far removed from the stereotypical interpretations of the Jewish people, it should be accepted that sedulity is a part of Israel’s societal fabric. Thanks to their determination to achieve success, Israeli/Jewish people can be characterized as hard-working, well-read and innovative. From the kibbutzim, communal rural communities, to modern cities like Tel Aviv, the Israeli people continually make the effort to develop their livelihoods, their environment and their future. To this end, they start to work very early in the morning, and then they allocate time for social activities and their families, which, as mentioned above, is also a crucial aspect of the society’s functioning. Such an intensive and efficient way of using time becomes possible thanks to the fact that everything is organized in a systematic fashion.

However, “systematic” should not be confused with “disciplined”. Far from the pejorative connotation of “disciplined”, Israeli society strives to be critical and creative, as mentioned by Mooly Eden:

“Israelis don’t have a very disciplined culture. From the age of zero, we are educated to challenge the obvious, ask questions, debate everything, innovate.”

In addition to their endeavor to accomplish that which is needed collectively, Israelis are also eager to improve themselves personally. Therefore, they tend to be extremely well-read; bookstores, educational book shops or book cafes can be found in almost every neighborhood. As a result of these public and personal endeavors, the Jewish people often follow through on that which they initially set out to do.

Consequently, with its relatively small population of 8 million and its young state history spanning only 66 years, Israeli society is able to manage its institutions from the family to the state. According to my observations, this real success may be attributed to Israeli society’s loyalty to certain values: dedication to religious and traditional rituals, preservation of memories through rhetoric and symbols, and its tenacity in achieving its objective. In the end, it seems that success has become inevitable for the Israeli society.

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Retaining Leadership In The Asia-Pacific: Why The US Should Work With China – Analysis

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Despite all 21 APEC leaders having endorsed Beijing’s move to promote the FTAAP, President Obama continues to harbour hopes that the TPP will serve as a key pathway towards the proposed free trade area in the region. American opposition to Beijing’s APEC stance is indicative of US wariness of China’s growing stature.

By James Char

The announcement of the recent signing of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was greeted with less than universal acclaim. The developed economies of Japan, South Korea and Australia expressed reservations regarding the bank’s standards of governance and transparency though 20 other countries joined it. The United States had been working vigorously behind the scenes to persuade its allies to shun the project, which has been viewed as a challenger to the Western-dominated World Bank and the Japan-led Asian Development Bank (ADB).

US opposition to Chinese initiatives in the Asia-Pacific has similarly been observed with respect to Beijing’s proposal of the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) at the recent APEC summit in Beijing. Owing to the huge untapped capacity for economic integration in the region and the inability of the Western-dominated institutions to fulfill their infrastructure needs, it is little wonder that the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific have been keen to embrace Beijing’s advances. Rather than work with China, US opposition towards Chinese initiatives may run counter to America’s regional leadership status.

Jostling for regional influence in Asia

Pushing back against the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Beijing has responded by promoting its own versions of multilateral lending institutions as well as set up funds to complement its plans to boost connectivity and infrastructure development in the region. At the same time, China has promoted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that precludes the US and more recently unsettled US attempts to make further progress with its tentative TPP partners by drawing the region’s attention to the FTAAP.

As things stand, there is a currently a huge discrepancy between the lending capacity of the World Bank as well as the ADB and the infrastructure assistance required by nations in the region. It therefore comes as no surprise that the signatories to the AIIB – many of whom are still in the economic doldrums – have warmed to China’s promise to deliver the infrastructure assistance necessary to kick-start economic development in their own countries.

Likewise, Beijing can be expected to exercise greater influence in the Asia-Pacific via its decision to set up its very own Silk Road Fund to realise Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calls for the establishment of the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.

As witnessed at the APEC summit, China’s proposals to set up the FTAAP and its promotion of a feasibility study – later watered down to a ‘collective strategic study’ – were perceived as rolling back the US’ TPP negotiations, thereby further weakening US economic hegemony that has already lost momentum. Put together, China’s strategic manoeuvres are expected to boost its status as the leading power in Asia at the expense of the US regional leadership. That is why the US has been vehemently lobbying against Chinese initiatives to shape the regional economic architecture in Asia.

Swimming against the economic tide

Nevertheless the China-dominated AIIB cannot be expected to fully negate extant American and Japanese economic influence in the region. However China’s status as both a founding member and the leading contributor in the new lending institution means that it would no longer have to contend with the problems faced in those establishments born out of Bretton Woods.

Where the AIIB is concerned, China should therefore be able to exercise a freer hand in identifying those countries and sectors where infrastructure development funds are to be disbursed. These can only enhance Beijing’s relationships in the region and win it greater influence over the longer term.

The momentum of South-South cooperation between Beijing and other developing nations as well as China’s invitation for all interested parties to hitch a ride aboard its economic development also show that the immediate priorities of regional political elites may lie in developing their own domestic economies. One such example which has signed on to the AIIB is the Philippines – a staunch US ally and China’s rival claimant in the South China Sea. Given how the US had pressured its regional allies against striking a deal with Beijing on the AIIB, it is not implausible that the Philippines might in fact have rejected American overtures.

Under the current period of relative peace and stability in the region, American security goods may not appeal to regional countries as much as those economic rewards provided by China. Moreover, in endorsing the economic proposals that China has been promoting of late, regional leaders have also inadvertently signalled to the US their policy preferences. In pressuring those states keen on receiving Chinese economic engagement, the US may in actual fact be pushing away those very same countries it is trying to court.

New phase in US-China relations?

The recent flurry of US activity in response to Chinese initiatives to take up more regional responsibilities may also reflect greater American awareness of China’s growing stature. While the Chinese leadership has retained its membership within the liberal Bretton Woods systems and called for reforms to global governance, Beijing is in reality reorganising the global order by purposefully shifting the balance of power in its favour via bilateral and multilateral platforms. As much as the US would like to ignore China’s enunciation of a new type of great power relations, current evidence suggests that we may already have entered into a new phase of Sino-US rivalry.

To be sure, the US still retains considerable leverage in the region as evinced by the APEC leaders’ decision to ditch the term “feasibility study” in favour of “collective strategic study” in their joint communiqué, possibly due to pressure from Washington. Regardless, US economic hegemony in the region in particular has borne the brunt of China’s rise.

In choosing to work against China – rather than alongside it – as the latter grows to take on even more responsibilities in the Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, the US may be making the critical mistake of rendering itself irrelevant to the rise of Asia as the economic centre of the world.

James Char is a Research Analyst with the China Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU).

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Balkans Conduct Joint Military Training Against Extremists

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By Miki Trajkovski

Balkan militaries are increasingly conducting joint training to better deal with insurgents and extremist organisations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Centre for Training and Peace Operations in Sarajevo ties in regional militaries’ efforts to address security threats and advance tactics in anti-insurgent operations.

The centre’s experts trained the Macedonian military last month within the framework of a NATO course on the doctrine of dealing with insurgents conducting terrorist attacks, as well as conventional warfighting.

Officials said such training is a much-needed opportunity to acquire knowledge and exchange experiences on countering new terrorist and conventional threats.

“It is a course against rebel operations to enable military commanders as well as trainers to get to know rebel tactics. The centre scheduled a course for peace operations for the Macedonian army in 2015, whose main goal is to offer support and regional military co-operation through education and training,” the Bosnia and Herzegovina Defence Ministry told SETimes in a statement.

Commanding officers from the Macedonian military branches and main units participated in the course, including representatives of the general staff.

The military agreed to undergo the training in the belief it will be very beneficial, said Mirce Gjorgoski, spokesperson for the Macedonian military.

“The course’s content was truly useful for everybody that participated and we consider it particularly useful for the forthcoming peace operations,” Gjorgoski told SETimes. Gjorgoski said the course’s content is very current and emerged from the acquired experience and lessons learned in various conditions during the Alliance’s missions abroad.

“The time period is not small if we take into account that for example, Macedonian soldiers have participated in the Alliance’s missions in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. This centre is very active and it offers other types of useful courses as well. Our soldiers [will continue] to train there,” Gjorgoski said.

NATO-member militaries train at the centre in addition to the Balkan countries’ armed forces.

While the centre operates as a partner for regional training and education, it also specifically supports the professional development of the BiH military.

Every type of training on how to deal with insurgents is welcome but is especially important because the region is facing threats from ISIL and similar extremist organisations, said Blagoja Markovski, president of the Balkan Security Forum in Skopje.

“We train the militaries to be able to act at any time because we do not know when such threats appear and thus we prepare for any eventuality. The situation posed by ISIL — the arch of influence starting from Iraq and Syria via Turkey to Bulgaria and the rest of the Balkans — makes such training current, because we do not know what can trigger activities by the ISIL supporters,” Markovski told SETimes.

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Second Romanian Foreign Minister Resigns Over Vote Scandal

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By Marian Chiriac

After just one week in office, the new Foreign Minister, Teodor Melescanu, has also stepped down – another casualty of the row over Romanians voting abroad.

“I take full responsibility for what happened and will present my resignation in today’s government meeting,” Teodor Melescanu said on Tuesday.

Melescanu said he had decided to step down as Foreign Minister because of the anger felt over the long queues and chaotic scenes seen at embassies abroad, where Romanians tried to cast ballots at the second round of presidential elections on November 16.

A total of 378,811 Romanians voted abroad that day, more than double the number registered in the first round held two weeks earlier.

However, thousands were not able to cast their votes, even after queuing for hours at polling stations in embassies and consulates. In Paris, London and Turin, frustrated would-be voters clashed with local police.

Currently, voters must cast their votes on printed ballots, which are then marked with an official stamp. But the process is slow, restricting the speed of the voting.

The previous Foreign Minister, Titus Corlatean, resigned for the same reason on November 10.

He quit after tens of thousands of people protested in cities across the country in support of Romanians living abroad who were not able to vote in the first round of presidential elections.

Klaus Iohannis, 55, head of the opposition National Liberal Party, PNL, and a member of Romania’s small ethnic German community, won a surprise victory in the presidential elections on Sunday, taking around 54.6 per cent of the vote.

Romania has a large diaspora. Over two million Romanians live or work abroad, mainly in Italy, Spain, Germany and France. Although only a fraction vote in elections, they have the power to influence the outcome.

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Burkina Faso: The (In)significant Coup – Analysis

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While it looks as though the political transition in Burkina Faso is being handled peacefully, concerns remain that the country could descend into violent conflict. It is important, then, to ask what effect such instability could have on neighboring states, particularly Mali and Côte d’Ivoire, and the region at large. The answer, however, is probably “none.”

By Dr. Ian Ralby

West Africa often makes international headlines, rarely with positive news. Recent stories include: French intervention in Mali following a coup and a separatist conflict; the rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria; oil theft and environmental degradation in the Niger Delta; piracy and armed robbery in the Gulf of Guinea; civil war in Côte d’Ivoire; and the devastating outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Adding to the list of woes, a coup in Burkina Faso on 30 October 2014 toppled the twenty-seven year regime of Blaise Compaoré. While it looks as though the political transition is being handled peacefully, concerns remain that the country could descend into violent conflict. It is important, then, to ask what effect such instability could have on neighboring states, particularly Mali and Côte d’Ivoire, and the region at large. The answer, however, is probably “none.”

Considering both the chain reaction of the Arab Spring and the current range of problems across West Africa, it would be logical to fear that Burkina Faso’s recent coup could trigger a “domino effect” whereby a surge of violence and insecurity would spill over into other countries. Oddly, though, conflicts in West Africa rarely spread and, in many ways, the region has proved remarkably resilient. Its catalogue of troubles would be enough to send other regions into utter chaos and dissolution, yet few of its issues ever extend beyond their immediate locus. The only exceptions have been transnational crime, particularly trafficking, and maritime matters. Even Ebola has stayed relatively contained within the three primary countries, each of which is handling the response differently. In some ways a regional conflict ignited by a single source would be far easier to handle than a welter of discrete conflicts.

Pope Francis recently remarked that “…perhaps one can speak of a third [world] war, one fought piecemeal, with crimes, massacres and destruction.” This concept is apt for identifying the challenges facing West Africa. No one conflict or incident seems sufficiently influential to engulf the region, yet most of the region is already suffering from a diverse range of problems that, in turn, make a coordinated regional response virtually impossible. How are the Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS) and the other regional bodies supposed to prioritize their responses to conflict and instability within the region when most of the member states are struggling with distinct problems? Emergency triage is about as much as could be hoped for at this point.

By contrast, North Africa has had a different experience. Revolution swept across that region and the Middle East in 2010 to 2012, toppling long-standing regimes and forcing widespread change. Each uprising influenced the next. Ironically, spillover from the Libyan Civil War in North Africa had more of an effect on the conflict in Mali than problems in West Africa normally have on each other. So why does the ripple effect occur in one portion of Africa, but not in an adjacent area? West Africa may be a region by geography, comprised of states linked by various cooperation initiatives and regional organizations, but it remains far from homogenous. Officially, there are three different languages in West Africa – French, English and Portuguese – but Nigeria alone is home to 521 languages. Whereas the Arab Spring states all shared at least a degree of cultural, religious, linguistic and historic ties, West African states tend to have relatively little in common with each other. Even sub-regions within states in West Africa are more dissimilar from each other than the two most different states of North Africa. Poor transportation links – with deficient roads and different sized rail gauges – limit interaction across the region. While ideas no longer need roads or rail lines to spread, national and sub-regional rivalries further diminish the influence that events in one state might have on another. In fact, some states would actively avoid even the appearance of influence from certain other states in the region. So the toppling of a regime that lasted nearly three decades in Burkina Faso will almost certainly have no direct bearing on what transpires, for example, in Cameroon, where Paul Biya has been president since 1982.

Mali seems poised for a new wave of conflict, irrespective of Burkina Faso’s Coup. Côte d’Ivoire remains focused on stabilizing after its latest civil war and is unlikely to be distracted by current events in Ouagadougou. And other states in the region are too focused on their own distinct problems to be influenced by those in Burkina Faso. The concept of a West African regional conflict by piecemeal helps explain what is happening in the region and why the discrete conflicts are so hard to resolve. It also supports the conclusion that fresh eyes and diverse approaches are needed to address the various issues in West Africa. The coup in Burkina Faso is significant, but it is important to be clear what the implications of that coup are and are not.

Dr. Ian Ralby is Founder and Executive Director of I.R. Consilium through which he and his team work with governments and organizations on solving complex security-related problems.  A leading expert on the regulation, governance and oversight of private security companies, Dr. Ralby frequently advises on and assists with matters involving international law, international security and maritime affairs.  He has worked extensively with governments in West Africa, the Caribbean, and the Balkans among others.  He holds a BA in Modern Languages and Linguistics and an MA in Intercultural Communication from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County; a JD from William & Mary Law School; and both an MPhil in International Relations and a PhD in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge.

This article was originally published by OpedSpace and is available by clicking here.

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Colombia Suspends Peace Talks With FARC – Analysis

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By Louise Højen

In July, Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos threatened to terminate the ongoing peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC), a guerilla movement that has operated for half a century in the northern sector of Colombia.[1] What was then a threat has now become a reality and peace has become a relatively distant one. On several occasions, Santos bluffed but at the last moment stepped back from the brink of suspending peace talks. It is almost certainty that the peace talks are as important to Santos as they are to the guerrilla leadership. This does not always contain political strands, but economic strands too as well as aborting the talks would woefully harm the Colombian society.

On November 16, President Santos suspended the peace talks, which have been underway since the fall of 2012. The suspension was due to the kidnapping by FARC of military official General Rubén Darío Alzate Mora, who has been leading the Titan Task Force in Colombia’s Chocó region, another military official, and a civilian. In the evening of November 16, Santos demanded their immediate release and followed his denouncement of the kidnappings by suspending the peace talks with FARC and their planned meeting in Cuba on November 17.[2] Perhaps to mitigate the severity of the guerrilla explosive behavior, Santos also demanded an explanation as to why the General has violated a security protocol by dressing as a civilian, and going without guards, as he inspected an energy project at a remote river crossing in West Colombia.[3]

In particular, FARC leaders have distanced themselves from the inflammatory potential of the incident. They­­ noticeably blamed low-ranking FARC members for the kidnappings. Despite the incentive to conclude the peace talks and the fact that the Colombian government and FARC currently have agreed to three out of five points in the peace talk agenda, there still is a long road ahead. Since July, Santos has denounced the continued attacks on Colombia’s infrastructure and raids against civilians, and this recent incident was evidently the final straw for him.[4]

Clearly, FARC is not committed as a whole to concluding the peace negotiations, given the kidnappings on November 16. Now that the peace talks have been severely compromised, Santos was forced to make a clear statement on the unacceptable incident. Until the prisoners are released, peace will be off the agenda, as the government demands answers and results.

Louise Højen, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

References

[1] Semana. “Están Jugando con Candela y Este Proceso Puede Terminar,” Jul. 29, 2014. Accessed Nov. 17, 2014: http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/santos-les-advierte-las-farc-que-el-proceso-de-paz-se-puede-terminar/397394-3

[2] El País. ” Santos Suspende el Diálogo con las FARC por el Rapto de un General,” Nov. 17, 2014. Accessed Nov. 17, 2014: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/11/17/actualidad/1416196090_373770.html Ibid

[3] Ibid.

[4] Højen, Louise. ”Opportunist or Peace Visionary for Peace: Comprehending Colombia’s President Santos,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Nov. 3, 2014. Accessed Nov. 17, 2014: http://www.coha.org/opportunist-or-visionary-for-peace-comprehending-colombias-president-juan-manuel-santos/

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Does Asia Suffer From A Strategic Media Handicap? – OpEd

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By Mathew Maavak*

When Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) disintegrated over eastern Ukraine on July 17 this year, the global media narrative was seized by a politically-charged West. Hardly any Asian press establishment had the capability to dispatch a world-class media investigative team to the crash site. For all the praises heaped on Asia’s stunning growth, the tragedy exposed the region’s lingering incapacity to generate an immediate, independent and in situ media narrative.

China had long recognized the vulnerabilities posed by this strategic lacuna. An external arm of the state broadcaster CCTV now complements the spigots of internal media control. CCTV’s ability to challenge global behemoths such as the BBC and CNN remain uncertain, as questions linger over its long-term appeal and credibility.

MH17 poses a stark reminder to Asia on its continued susceptibility to external informational deluges, backed by specious social media evidences, insensate accusations, maudlin bereavement and affected gravitas. Hard evidences – belatedly released in tranche from Sept 9 – were buried under an avalanche of hysteria.

The Malaysian activist media, ever ready to publicize instances of judicial irregularities within the country, was remiss in playing by its own rulebook. Every emotive debris on the post-crash horizon was scavenged for political mileage, before public outrage began to wane.

The eerily-named opposition newsletter, The Rocket, echoing the fusillades of the Western media, concluded as early as July 23 that there was “strong evidence to suggest that pro-Russian rebels had downed the aircraft using arms from Russia, hence Malaysia should pressure the Russian government via sanctions and the cancellation of ongoing business deals with them.”

One wonders how that “strong evidence” was adduced. Was evidence mistaken for the contrived suggestibility of Western propaganda?

In keeping with the overall tempo, unfamiliar bylines briefly appeared in the Malaysian online media to reinforce notions of Russian guilt. These receded under the tide of potent counter-narratives from the US alternative media and Russian mainstays such as Novosti, Russia Today, TASS and Pravda.

Interest in the MH17 tragedy as well as the mysterious disappearance of MH370 earlier on March 8 has predictably ebbed in Malaysia, even as both tragedies are subjected to daily scrutiny in the global media.

Asia may continue to pay a heavy price for this strategic media handicap.

Choked by Mediocrity

Asia needs to ask itself whether it wants its own tragedies to be scripted abroad. Can it seize the propaganda narrative before external parties shape public opinion? Or will it continue to rely on authoritarian media strictures to control public discourse?

The Internet has not emerged as the great equalizer to media restrictions in the non-Western world as was once envisaged. It is not simply a matter of growing online censorship. The “free media” is often a blowback to the vagaries of institutionalized patronage. Funding is not a problem for the discontented who can peddle “freedom and democracy” across the political divide. The strategic narrative, in the end, gets choked between official media control and the anarchic agendas of the Open Society, USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

Activism is sometimes a well-paid career choice of a few who can impress a “free will” conviction upon the many. Murderous fallouts from the Arab Spring should have reset our bearings on the ugly realities of cyclical amnesia and horde-like delusions, wrought upon by the chimera of “hope and change.” Yet, the mob is prone to repeating its past mistakes, right after applauding the famously familiar caution of George Santayana.

The MH17 tragedy did reveal a curious paradox in the Malaysian online media: Ad hoc remarks posted on online comment boxes were sometimes superior to the main commentaries themselves. No surprises here as mediocrity is inexorably replicated at the local level before being routinely winnowed out in the “glocality” of the borderless media.

Developing a literary flair and style are an absolute no-no. Control is overbearing, sensitivity is prioritized and language is watered down. Using terms like “poodle” or “lapdog” to describe EU subservience to US policies would be most unbecoming or unprofessional of the native commentariat. It is however touché when Marie Le Pen uses the canine analogy in an identical context. What was the difference? The savoir-faire, panache and je ne sais quois of a blonde, white nationalist? Local metier in the end goes unnoticed, unrecognized, and unrewarded.

The insipidity of Asian reportage is often matched by the pusillanimity of its content. The lack of talent and originality here is reflective of the wider media malaise worldwide. The good cop-bad cop meme is used formulaically to create bipartisan-like divides, win permanent audiences and grab future sources of revenue. Corporations, lobbies and public relations giants, inherently averse to any form of critical thinking, are well-disposed towards cultivated mediocrity in politics and the media.

The media circus becomes as depressingly predictable as the maverick actions of a John McCain or the visionary principles of a Barrack Obama. These stalwarts yet prevail and get re-elected, much to the detriment of the global media quotient.

Keeping it simple

Entrenched mediocrity in the Asian media may be partly attributable to the pseudosciences creeping into the wider field of humanities. News is not only history’s first draft; it informs our social sciences that, in turn, defines the field of communications and media.

Therein lies the problem. The profusion of catchy, marketable and politically-correct neologisms is recycled within the social sciences-media loop. It is no longer sufficient to call a spade a “bloody shovel” because as Noam Chomsky observes “you don’t get to be a respected intellectual by presenting truisms in monosyllables.”

Post-modernist erudition is contemptuous of the mundane, especially when reality is so prosaic. Ontological fractionation accompanies hermeneutical wizardry, adding ever an expanding corpus of knowledge to the science of tauroscatology. Academic publications and its Op-ed derivatives thrive on novelties, as do sales, marketing and advertising upon which journalism is underwritten.

Chomsky pans these pseudosciences as “Polysyllabic Truisms” that continue to have “a terrible effect on the third world.” It is a world where nanotechnology competes with the sub-atomic microvita of Indian mystic P.R. Sarkar in the next big quantum leap of human development.

The East Asian mind is however averse to heavy abstractions in the social sciences realm. Contrary to popular perception, Sun-Tzu just does not do metaphysics. His pithy wisdom is geared on harnessing the physical realm; not the kundalini. Abstracts do not fill the stomach.

Social sciences and the media are therefore overlooked in favour of science, technology and innovation (STI). Asian STI outputs perennially outpace “developments” – if one could call it – in the social sciences realm. The pursuit of science, itself often reducible to binary 0s and 1s, triumphs the need to master growing complexities in humanities.

The democratic West, after all, is more obsessed with neo-Marxist critical theorizing than Communist China, reflecting a larger East-West divide over the purpose and applicability of the social sciences and media. The philosophical meanderings get richer, along roads that get poorer, as one travels from Tokyo to Ahmedabad. Religious fundamentalism predominate lands further west, in a Middle East that can be intolerant of both sciences and human beings. Beyond that precipice is the West itself where the post-modernist raison d’être appears as clueless as its media.

This divide is reflected in the hemispherically opposite approaches to geopolitics. The ideologically-predicated Asian Pivot is countervailed by a Silk Road alternative based on organic trade and development. The upshot to the latter however is a regulated media that can be hostile to colourful sparks of journalistic creativity. Asian nations may find it desirable to temper each other’s media, and to keep matters comfortably parochial, vernacular and nationalist. Prevailing disincentives to aggressive transborder journalism will likely grow in tandem with trade.

The question however remains: For how much longer can Asia concede the strategic media narrative to the West? Should the basic 5Ws and H – the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How – of its tragedies continue to be scripted abroad? Its mobile middle-classes are more likely to source local news from the global media due to domestic insouciance and shortcomings. This reality rarely bothers policy-makers. An event like the MH17 tragedy may result in a brief scramble to douse public ire before status quo is duly restored.

One day, however, inbuilt controls may prove insufficient, the floodgates may be breached, and the barbarians may enter. This may be the Asian Spring. It is therefore high time for Asia to develop its own pan-global media capability.

*Mathew Maavak is a Malaysian with varied interests in subjects such as international affairs, propaganda, the “big picture” and the application of science, technology and innovation to social challenges.

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Pakistan Army And US Engaged In Re-Inventing Mutual Strategic Indispensibility – Analysis

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By Dr Subhash Kapila

Indi’s security environment is once again in danger of becoming more threatening when viewed from the prism of the ongoing engagement of Pakistan Army and the United States in reinventing mutual strategic indispensability.

Strange are the political and strategic somersaults of the United States when it comes to the Pakistan Army. No Pakistan Army Chief was invited by the United States since 2010 due to the American denouement with the Pakistan Army harbouring Osama bin Laden and not revealing his whereabouts to the United States. This resulted in the US Special Forces penetration into Pakistan Army’s major garrison of Abbottabad and liquidating Osama bin Laden on May2, 2011.Thereafter, relations between Pakistan Army and the United States sunk to an all-time low,

Now, the United States after three years of denouement is feverishly engaged in a campaign to obliterate the murky past and re-invent Pakistan Army’s strategic indispensability to United States’ strategic interests in the region. If this born-again re-invention is limited only to ensure unhindered exit of US Forces from Afghanistan, then it is understandable.

But if this re-invention is a new US strategic formulation to concede wider political and military space to Pakistan Army in Afghanistan Post-22014 then it carries disturbing portents for Indian security.

Twice in the past three decades the United States despite proven evidence of Pakistan Army’s double-timing of the United States on Afghanistan kept re-inventing Pakistan Army’s strategic indispensability to US strategic interests in South Asia. Despite its proven record of indulging in state-sponsored terrorism and proxy war against Afghanistan and India the United States in blindfolded obliviousness kept bestowing honorifics on the Pakistan Army, first as an “enduring ally of long standing” and in the last decade adding to the foregoing and rewarding, “Pakistan is A Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States”

The United States ploughed in billions of dollars not to Pakistan but to the Pakistan Army in military equipment and permissive in letting the Pakistan Army to divert the civilian component of US aid intended for development to Pakistan Army’s questionable intelligence subversive activities against both Afghanistan and India.

Against such a dubious record of the Pakistan Army-United States relationship, security alarms should be ringing in the Indian policy establishment that the United States despite all policy briefs issued by Washington think-tanks rich in rhetoric in favour of reinforcing ties with the Modi Sarkar, it is Pakistan Army which counts in US strategic formulations. The US praise bestowed on advent of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is just a smokescreen to garner Indian defence contracts and nothing else.

The acid test for judging US strategic investments on the Modi Sarkar would be the United States readiness to concede strategic and political space in Afghanistan Post-2014 and not accord primacy to Pakistan Army’s strategic sensitivities on Afghanistan.

As a prelude to the ongoing visit of Pakistan Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif to the United States, the United States unleashed a two-pronged strategy of (1) Prevailing over the new Afghanistan President to visit Pakistan and present a picture that Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are on the mend, and (2) Media campaign by the United States as to how the present Pakistan Army Chief was better than the previous one in launching counter-terrorism operations in North Waziristan and Khyber Agency including “fracturing” the Haqqani terrorist group network, which is debatable.

While no one can join issue on the visit of the Afghan President to Pakistan and normalise relations but what is really galling and shocking was the act of the Afghan President to visit the Pakistan Army’s Chief in his office as a courtesy/ discussions call. The visuals are disturbing as to how the President of the sovereign State of Afghanistan should stoop or be made to stoop and kow-tow to the Pakistan Army Chief. Why could the Pakistan Army Chief not go and pay a courtesy call on the visiting Afghan President? Why was this demeaning political symbolism imposed on the new Afghan President by the US when earlier the Pakistan Army Chief had already visited Kabul?

Attendant was a simultaneous media campaign in Pakistan extolling the new Afghan President. As written by me in an earlier Paper the installation of a new Afghan Government of National Unity was an American contrivation of installing a new Afghan President more amenable and accommodative of Pakistan Army sensitivities than the previous President Karzai.

Also significant was that the new Afghan President, presumably under US pressure or connivance selected Pakistan as the country for his first political visit. What political signals should be read by India?

Till only three years back, the United States was livid and Pakistan Army-United States relations sank to a low level following the killing of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011 in a Pakistan Army garrison by US Special Forces action. On the last visit of the previous Pakistan Army Chief to USA he was subjected to a severe tongue-lashing.

Sadly, the previous Pakistan Army Chief, General Kayani who earned the sobriquet of being “United States Poster Boy” is now being denigrated to substantiate present incumbent General Sharif’s credentials in relation to the United States.

In marked contrast the praise being lavished on General Raheel Sharif is rather surprising in that during his year long tenure nothing dramatic has occurred which furthers US national security interests in Afghanistan.

But beating all these above strategies is the reported analyses in the media that during his current visit to the United States, the Pakistan Army Chief will be marketing the proposal that the Pakistan Army should receive continuing military US aid so that it can take on the ISIS threat creeping towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.

So in terms of strategic indispensability of the Pakistan Army to US strategic plans a joint and concerted effort is on between the two nations on justifications of combatting the impending ISIS threat. With the bulk of US Forces exiting Afghanistan in the Post -2014 phase the Pakistan Army would have limited strategic utility to the United States. Therefore it was imperative that the Pakistan Army re-invent its strategic utility to the United States and what better plea than the ISIS threat.

For the United States such a re-invention would ensure that a collusive Pakistan Army is readily available as an existential threat on the Eastern flank of Iran which the lawmakers on Capitol Hill strongly despise.

Disturbing for India and the military balance of power in the region are reports of US planning to leave billions of dollars of combat military equipment for the Pakistan Army on the plea that the Afghan National Army would be unable to capitalise this equipment and that prohibitive costs are involved in moving out this equipment to the United States.

Disturbing for India would also be the political concessions that the Pakistan Army Chief would extract from the United States establishment on Kashmir and the imperatives for the United States to prevail on India to desist from strong responses against the Pakistan Army provocations on the LOC and the International Border, in return for Pakistan Army’s collusiveness.

This denotes US trust-deficit in the Afghan National Army which the new Afghan President needs to note this mentally as he considers future perspectives on US and Pakistan Army stakes in Afghanistan.

The United States blinded by its strategic naiievity on Pakistan Army’s dubious roles in the past seems hell-bent on re-inventing the strategic indispensability of the Pakistan Army to serve US interests in the region.

Will this misplaced and born-again US strategic trust in the Pakistan Army bear fruit? Rather doubtful, as it is once again political expediency that is at work again in the Pakistan Army and the United States establishment to re-invent mutual strategic indispensability. What the United States is indulging in is a wholesale “bribing” of the Pakistan Army to buy its complicity and collusiveness and the Pakistan Army Generals are as usual over-obliging in this direction.

Concluding, what needs to be highlighted is that in this re-invention of mutual strategic indispensability between the Pakistan Army and the United States, many lessons emerge for Afghanistan and India. The singular and most significant one being that the United States when it comes to strategic trust, America reposes that in the Pakistan Army and not in Afghanistan and India. The Modi Sarkar needs to revise its strategic formulations on India-US relationship and India-Afghanistan relationship in light of the born-again Pak-Centric American security architecture in South Asia.

(Dr Subhash Kapila is a graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley. Combines a rich experience of Indian Army (Brigadier), Cabinet Secretariat, and diplomatic assignments in Bhutan, Japan, South Korea and USA. Currently, Consultant International Relations & Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Can be reached at drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)

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Bhutan: Smooth Transition And Commendable Governance By Tobgay – Analysis

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By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

In August this year, while listing the achievements of his government, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay claimed that the fact that his government did not indulge in any witch hunt was itself an indication that democracy is getting strengthened in Bhutan.

Compare this development with what is happening in Maldives in the sub continent where democracy in the real sense of the term was ushered in more or less at the same time. There a lawfully elected President was toppled by street protests followed by a coup and authoritarian tendencies are rearing their heads in not so subtle a manner now.

To this extent Bhutan should be congratulated for the smooth transition and credit should also go to the present King whose sixth anniversary of his coronation was observed on November 1st of this year. Though no mention is made of Gyalpo 4 whose birthday was also celebrated recently, it is certain that he is still active and taking care of the environmental issues and other aspects that would strengthen democracy in Bhutan.

One good news is that the refugee problem is also getting solved thanks to the intervention of some of the western countries, particularly USA that had already taken the bulk of the refugees from the camps.

No Witch Hunt:

In talking about the smooth transition, PM Tobgay specially mentioned that he had not gone on any witch hunt against any business person, civil servant or ex MP and this itself is a “strong indicator” of democracy in Bhutan. He was particularly proud to declare that democracy in Bhutan is not vindictive or divisive.

Except for a defamation case of DPT- the opposition party against Dasho Penji for making some petty comments in the face book, the present government has indeed been very generous and not much open criticism is seen about the previous government though there could be justification on some problems particularly economic that were inherited from them.

In highlighting the achievements, Tobgay highlighted two points that included-

  • The 11th five-year Plan has been finalised and in this, those projects that were left from the 10th five-year plan have been carried over. The objectives included – improvement of living standards of people, increase in exports, import substitution and reduction of current account deficit.
  • Though the Rupee shortage continues, the problem is not critical anymore. The present government has eased the grant of home, car and consumer loans and efforts are on to focus on the “five jewels”- namely, Hydro power, Agriculture, Tourism, Small & Medium Industries and Mining.

Failures:

What Tobgay failed to mention is that the “dream” of Bhutan generating 20,000 megawatts by 2020 is not likely to be achieved. In fact, some sources say that the generation may not go beyond 3500 megawatts by that time. It is disappointing and rather unfortunate. It was only in 2008 that after a detailed study and discussions between India and Bhutan, the figure of 10,000 watts was fixed. What happened then? There have been delays in implementing the project, technical and financial and the Indian side is equally to blame for the delays. Only three projects- Punatsangchu I and II and Dagachu are in the pipeline now.

The Empowered Joint Groups (EJG) of Bhutan and India is said to be meeting soon to fix another deadline. It is hoped that the deadline will be fixed on a more realistic basis and not bring a bad name to India again.

At present Bhutan is producing just 1488 megawatts of power. Another deadline of providing electricity to all by December 2014 is also going to pass soon.

East Development Initiative:

One of the election promises of the Tobgay’s party- the PDP has been that they would focus on the development of the East that had continued to remain relatively backward all along. This, the media in Bhutan had described as a “common and often repeated” narrative in the national discourse.

The present government has come up with a plan called “East Development Initiative (EDI) to economically strengthen and develop the six eastern Dzongkhags.

The plan envisages the creation of three hubs in Kanglung, Gyalpoizhing and Nanglam and the focus will be on the following:

  • Improve accessibility and transport infrastructure
  • Accelerating Hydro Power Development
  • Establishing Premier Educational Institutions
  • Establishing Agro based and green industries
  • Improving the Housing Infrastructure
  • Establishing Referral Hospitals.

The schemes look grandiose but doable provided enough funds are made available. The priority should be to improve the infrastructure and rest would follow.

Other Issues:

Bhutan finally took the plunge to provide personnel for UN Peace Keeping Operations. In a small way three Officers of the Bhutan Army are being sent to UNTSO (United Nations Truce supervision organisation) and MINUSCA ( United Nations Multi Dimensional Integration 7 Stabilisation Mission in Central Africa). This is a good decision and Officers who were specially selected were given a warm sendoff.

Another small step was taken to generate wind power with the help of Japanese at Wangdu to be ready by 2016 for generation of 1.21 million units of energy.

In all, Bhutan has been one of the least problematic states in the region so far. The border problem with China continues and another round of talks are to be held soon- this time in Bhutan. At any rate unlike in India, the Chinese are not making any provocative intrusions at present though they could resume it anytime.

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Ayatollah Khamenei Warns Against Islamophobia

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Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has warned against enemy plots aimed at spreading Islamophobia.

“Global ill-wishers and bullying powers are trying to use art, politics, militarism and all [other] means to keep the voice of pure Islam from being heard, but the voice has been heard, and an indication of that is hegemonic powers’ growing fear,” said the leader.

The leader said the enemies promote Islamophobia by creating armed groups that massacre civilians in the name of Islam.

Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that today, global tyrants are deeply worried about Islam’s power and that is why they are doing all in their power to spread Islamophobia across the world.

Ayatollah Khamenei said that Islam conveys the message of welfare, dignity, honor and peace for humanity but that the “ill-wishers” are plotting to prevent Islam’s real message from reaching other nations.

The post Ayatollah Khamenei Warns Against Islamophobia appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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