French security officials allegedly killed one suspect and arrested two others, believed to be responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, where 12 people including two policemen were shot dead.

A US official said the three suspects of French-Algerian descent were apprehended during a raid in the northern French town of Reims, according to NBC News.

Two of the men, brothers, were identified as Said Kouachi, 34, Cherif Kouachi, 32, and the youngest suspect Hamyd Mourad, 18.

The gunmen attacked the headquarters of France’s leading satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, with assault rifles on Wednesday, killing the magazine’s editor and chief cartoonist Stéphane Charbonnier and 11 others.

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By Clint Watts*

Today’s terrorist attack in Paris killed 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine; presumably for their perceived insults to Islam and/or ISIS’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.  As expected, media outlets, governments and their citizens want to know who is responsible for the attack.  In years past, arriving at a conclusion regarding culpability occurred rather quickly.  Attacks were either command directed by al Qaeda or perpetrated by an inspired adherent to al Qaeda’s ideology and justifications for violence.  Today, in an era where ISIS has grown to overtake al Qaeda in stature globally, the perpetrator of today’s attack at Charlie Hebdo appears far murkier.  Analysts and journalists should assess four different potential perpetrators and scenarios:

1. An Al Qaeda Central (AQC) or al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) directed plot from Yemen or potentially Pakistan (AQAP is AQC at this point)
2. An ISIS directed plot from Syria and Iraq
3. An al Qaeda inspired plot by supporters in the West
4. An ISIS inspired plot by supporters in the West, of which there have been several in recent months.

There could always be a fifth scenario, a completely unaffiliated different ideological movement that wants to attack Charlie Hebdo (I call this the Andres Brevik scenario), but I think its not sufficiently likely to warrant analytical effort at this point.

While it remains too early to assess responsibility and events continue to transpire in Paris surrounding the attack, there are some factors and supporting evidence coming in to begin distinguishing between different scenarios.  While I DO NOT know who perpetrated the attack, I am building my own chart to track the possible scenarios and evidence that is leading me to one perpetrator over another.  When assessing jihadi attacks in the West these days, I look at several factors to begin distinguishing perpetrators, which I’ll discuss here.  In government, this might be called a quick and dirty Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH for short). The scenario with the most supporting evidence tends to be the most likely. NOTE: This will evolve throughout the day as more evidence comes in; I have not settled on one perpetrator over the others and I’m still compiling information.  Also, a good ACH takes time and the evidence is weighted and assessed for being confirmed or suspected.  I don’t have time to do that this morning so am just doing an initial draft here.

Here are the factors I’m looking for:

• Reconnaissance: Based on the success of the attack, killing 12 people and the Editor possibly during a morning meeting, I assume a significant reconnaissance was conducted which suggests a well-planned operation more consistent with a directed plot.
• Targeting Mass/Random vs. Specific: The attackers went after specific people in a specific location, and this is more indicative of a directed plot.
• Attack Locations – Single vs. Multiple: As of now, there appears to be only one attack location but this might change, or lead to a deliberate standoff.
• Weaponry – Advanced vs. Self Provided: The automatic weaponry used suggests access to a sponsor and a deliberate directed plot.  Inspired plots more often involve attackers providing and using their own lower capability weapons.
• Sponsored Organized Media Release: This will be important in the coming hours. Both ISIS and AQ might try to take credit for the attack, but the timing of responsibility matters.  And, this could be an inspired attack, so maybe a media release will never come.
• Propaganda Citing Motive For Attack: While Charlie Hebdo did insult Islam which would be offensive to both groups, they directly insulted ISIS leader Bagdadi, although this may have been too soon before the attack.
• Suicide Mission/Fight To The Death (FTD) vs. Planned Withdrawal: Generally, inspired attackers seek media attention and want to drag out the incident.  These guys withdrew professionally suggesting a command directed plot.
• Size of Attacking Element – Lone Wolf vs Small Cell: Inspired attacks are more often lone wolf plots.  This attack involved at least three perpetrators which suggests an ISIS or AQ directed action.
• Symbols Present at Scene or Statements of Perpetrators: Little is known at this point, however, some news has trickled out that one of the perpetrators said that “al Qaeda in Yemen” was responsible.  I’m uncertain about the credibility of that claim.
• Professional vs. Amateur: These guys look professional.  From the video, they handled their weapons well and look experienced, possibly suggesting the presence of a former foreign fighter being involved and leaning towards a directed plot rather than one that was inspired.
• Foreign Fighter Origin: Very recent reports suggest one of the attackers was speaking Russian!  I am not sure of the credibility of the report, but with the vast number of foreign fighters in ISIS ranks, and the presence of so many Chechens and Caucasuses fighters in ISIS, this leans towards an ISIS command directed attack.

Here is my quick and dirty ACH chart as of 1030.  Note, I provide my assessment of each scenario and what I would expect in black text.  My assessment should definitely be challenged and debated.  I then, in red, pasted #JeSuisCharlie where I’ve seen evidence or potential evidence supporting each assessed factor in the scenario.  I thought this might be a useful tool for those to debate who the perpetrators might be. 

About the author
*Clint Watts is an FPRI Senior Fellow with the Program on National Security and President of Miburo Solutions, Inc. His research focuses on analyzing transnational threat groups operating in local environments on a global scale. Before starting Miburo Solutions, he served as a U.S. Army infantry officer, a FBI Special Agent on a Joint Terrorism Task Force, and as the Executive Officer of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC). Clint’s publications include: al Qaeda’s (Mis) Adventures in the Horn of Africa, Combating Terrorism Center, 2007 (Co-editor, Co-author); “Can the Anbar Strategy Work in Pakistan?” Small Wars Journal, 2007 ; “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan: What Foreign Fighter Data Reveals About the Future of Terrorism?” Small Wars Journal, 2008; “Foreign Fighters: How are they being recruited?” Small Wars Journal, 2008; “Countering Terrorism from the Second Foreign Fighter Glut,” Small Wars Journal, 2009; and, “Capturing the Potential of Outlier Ideas in the Intelligence Community,” Studies in Intelligence – CIA, 2011.(Co-author). He is also the editor of the SelectedWisdom.com blog.

The post Who Attacked Charlie Hebdo In Paris? Assessing A Jihadi Attack In The West, ISIS Vs Al Qaeda – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Professor Ramu Manivannan*

There is a systemic crisis in Sri Lanka and the advanced stage of the cancerous polity will climax in the near future. The post-independent polity in Sri Lanka was never allowed to form itself.

It was constantly attacked by the acts of ‘Sinhala Only.’ The moral conditions required for the survival of plural society and democratic polity do not exist any longer in Sri Lanka. The rise of barbarous state and self-acknowledging devils competing for power are concurring signs of this tragic reality.

The presidential elections-2015 held two years ahead of schedule not only reflects the greed and brutal selfishness of the current president Mahinda Rajapaksa but also the fragile course and destiny of the polity. The common presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena is not from another planet but comes from the same government as an erstwhile trusted colleague and Minister for Defence during the Mullivaikal genocide of Tamils in May 2009. Both Rajapaksa and Sirisena are battling this time without an option of returning to what sells like a magic cure for all illness among the Sinhalese voters – the hatred for Tamils and the LTTE factor. They both are pretending and praying for salvation through power but with the Tamil votes. The enemy factor is no longer the determining cause of the electoral outcome this time.

There are more significant realities revealing that Rajapaksa has been surrounded by challenges and without any hope of electoral success. All roads to safety are closed both at home and abroad except for the Chinese whisper which can be interpreted anyway as the wind blows. Rajapaksa has been forced to fight with the courage of despair. This situation not only makes him more desperate but will leave the country in tatters and with a rare constitutional coup.

There are genuine concerns about the possible abuse of government machinery, role of police and the control of media. At the same time, there are naïve and pacifying voices aired to soothe the fears of potential threats from the military in North & East of Sri Lanka, particularly in areas where Tamils live in large numbers. The point is that the Sri Lankan armed forces have been cultivating food and vegetables in the military occupied agricultural lands since 2009. The military has been also been selling them with select outlets. Everything from a private ceremony to transfer of a peon functioning within the premises of the Northern Provincial Council Chief Minister’s office has come under the hammer of the army. The Chief Minister of the Northern Provincial Council cannot even visit a government school in North without the consent of the military. How can anyone not expect that the Sri Lankan armed forces will not have any role in the presidential elections?

The opposition parties have complained recently that the military has set up 400 roadblocks to deter minority Tamils from voting in the North. Did the opposition ever try to find out how many roadblocks were there for the Tamils during the civil war period and after the war since May 2009? There are many questions before the Tamil voters. What is the meaning of this presidential elections-2015? How different is this from the previous elections since 1977? To what does it lead? Is this an isolated exercise, without any connection to the reality of their lives? Does it not conceal or does it not reveal a destiny beyond the mirage of democracy in Sri Lanka? Tamils are under no obligation to rescue either Rajapaksa or Sirisena because of the fact that they have resigned themselves to a pitiable silence. More than 80,000 Tamils have died and 1, 46,679 Tamils have disappeared during the final years of the brutal civil war. There are at least 1,75,000 Tamil asylum seekers languishing around the world as on December 2014. This figure does not include the registered refugees. Given the waves of Sinhala colonization in Tamil areas and the rapid militarization of North & East since May 2009, Tamils have no choice but to seek international attention towards political solution to the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka. In view of the ongoing international investigations into the war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Sri Lankan armed forces and government authorities, the demand for political solution includes the right to self-determination and the call for UN monitored referendum.

Sri Lanka is moving towards a major constitutional breakdown with a political deadlock arising from the electoral outcome that will be withheld indefinitely without an execution of the will of the mandate. After phasing out Sarath Fonseka with intimidations and safety deal, Rajapaksa does not foresee any immediate threat from the military ranks. The revamping of the power structure within the military, since the unceremonious exit of Sarath Fonseka, has been taking place with the knowledge and maneuvers of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. But this arrangement cannot be trusted for a long term political role and, thus, military intervention at this stage will not be favourable for Rajapaksa. Hence the Pakistan model of military intervention inspired by the brew at the top can be safely ruled out. Neither Burmese model of military uniformed coterie reigning nor the Ershad model of drag democracy in Bangladesh are likely conditions in the near future. The dissent among the soldier class is unlikely to cause a political tornado but for their traditional loyalty and votes to Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). India is certainly not available for repetition of the rescue act through ‘Operation Cactus’ in the 1988 Maldives Coup d’etat to stabilize the sinking reign of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom with a planted coup.

In the alignment of international support for both the presidential candidates, Rajapaksa considers the Chinese support as an outlet for his potential survival as he is exploring his way out of adverse realities surrounding him. It may go unnoticed as he reiterates that ‘he would not allow the country to be divided and Western governments want him out as he refuses to bow to their pressures’. This is a sufficient recipe, along with the Chinese backing, for an Asian dictator to survive the tremors of politics. He is more than desperate and after careful consideration and counting of costs he knows his strengths and limitations. He has not advanced the presidential elections two years ahead of schedule to go home early. Though Rajapaksa does not possess civic virtues, he will choose the civil sphere to protract the political battle with the help of radical Buddhist outfits. Given the history, the consent of the Sinhala masses can be mobilized with the combination of theocratic despotism of the Buddhist clergy and constitutional despotism steered by the traditional political elites of Sri Lanka. A further collapse and deterioration of Sri Lankan polity is inextricably linked to the chances of his destiny as the constitutional despot.

The moral is about the social and political consequences of destroying freedom and justice. The idea of force cannot be the foundation of political legitimacy forever which successive Sri Lankan governments have relied for long since independence in 1948. Rajapaksa believes that he possesses political resources equal to the strain of establishing his rule through constitutional despotism in the close proximity of his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa toying with the military. The excessive concentration of power at the centre of political society or in the hands of a family or an individual is, in the long run, its own undoing. Sri Lanka is, thus, likely to enter into a new political zone of constitutional despotism as an aftermath of the presidential elections-2015. There will be long nights with little or no day light. We must then learn to wait for the transitions that will emerge as an undying course of politics.

*Author is Professor & Chair in the Department of Politics & Public Administration, School of Politics & International Studies, University of Madras, Chennai. He is also the author of the book “Sri Lanka: Hiding the Elephant-Documenting Genocide, War Crimes & Crimes against Humanity.”

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Heavily armed men stormed the Paris headquarters of a satirical weekly on Wednesday, killing 12 people in cold blood.

The assault on Charlie Hebdo headquarters in a quiet Paris neighborhood sparked a massive manhunt as the two gunmen managed to escape, executing a wounded police officer as they fled.

The men remained on the run in the early evening, with few clues on their whereabouts and parts of the French capital in lockdown.

Prosecutors said witnesses heard the gunmen shout “we have avenged the Prophet” and “Allahu Akbar” as they carried out the attack. Police said the calm, calculated manner of the assault showed they were highly trained.

Victims included four prominent cartoonists, including the chief editor, who had been holding a morning meeting when the assailants armed with Kalashnikovs burst in and opened fire, officials said.

The Saudi Arabia government condemned the attack as “a cowardly terrorist” act.

“The Kingdom has been following the terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo weekly with deep sorrow,” an official source said, adding that Islam and other religions reject such heinous crimes. Riyadh expressed its condolences to the families of victims as well as to the government and people of France.

President Francois Hollande immediately rushed to the scene of what he called “an act of exceptional barbarism” and “undoubtedly a terrorist attack.”

Amateur video shot after the bloodbath showed two men masked and dressed head-to-toe running toward a wounded policeman as he lay on the pavement. The attacker says “you wanted to kill me?” before shooting the officer in the head execution style.

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By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

It is not difficult to describe the situation in Germany; there are bad Muslims and bad Germans. The 18,000 Germans who took to the streets of Dresden against what they dubbed the “Islamization of Germany” include racists as well as angry people who have been affected by the heinous and ugly political acts committed by Muslims across the world. Among these Germans are those who blame others for the difficult economic situation they find themselves in, considering the influx of foreigners, which has led to competition over jobs and benefits.

Germany itself is home to Muslim religious and political extremists who succeeded in distorting the image of the other three million Muslims who live peacefully in Germany. Muslim extremists in Germany are more dangerous and harmful to Muslims than angry, racist and fascist Germans. Germany is a tolerant, secular and civil state that has 2,500 mosques. Its regulations, courts and executive institutions protect the Muslim community from racist groups.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has condemned the anti-Islam protests as a detestable act. The justice minister also led a protest against racists in the same square as the anti-Islam rally.

Arabs make up a small minority of Muslims in Germany. Moroccans, who rank fourth after the Turks, Bosnians and Iranians, account for 80,000 persons. Those of Lebanese origin rank sixth with just 50,000 immigrants.

The talk about the Islamization of Germany is nothing more than a silly scarecrow. After all, Muslims are a small minority and it’s said that the number of Germans who converted to Islam comes in at 100,000, which is a small number considering the country’s population of 80 million. Most of those who converted to Islam most likely did so following mixed marriages and not due to preaching.

Muslims have become tormented people following the damage to their image and the image of their religion. This has occurred ever since the Al-Qaeda surfaced and also due to the massive propaganda of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which made headlines with its violent practices such as the beheadings of western hostages.

The three million Muslims residing in Germany cannot do much to defend their image because the Muslim world is rife with awful images and news, which is used by racists to incite against Islam and against peaceful Muslims who live in the West and other countries.

What is always worth a shot, by Germany’s Muslims and other Germans, is directing their anger toward Muslim extremists, expelling them from their communities and distancing them from their schools and children. Fighting Muslim extremists in Germany is more important to Muslims than fighting German racists whom the state will deal with and punish. Perhaps the state will roll up its sleeves and also fight Muslim extremists, as it’s not possible — and not acceptable — that the war only be waged against racists while overlooking extremist Muslims. Those extremist Muslims exploit the tolerant and civil regulations in order to market a culture of hatred, incite against followers of other religions and seek to control Muslim schools, mosques and charity and humanitarian institutions.

This stance does not protect Germany from the alleged Islamization but it saves Muslims from the rotten apples among them and from those who sabotaged their communities, destroyed them or imposed their extremist ideology on their people. Those who deserve freedom in civil societies are those individuals who respect freedom and not those who exploit it to serve their own interests.

The post On The ‘Islamization’ Of Germany – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

To show solidarity with the French citizens, authorities and the victims of this deadly attack, the European Parliament President Martin Schulz invited all MEPs on Thursday to the Agora Simone Veil, in front of the European Parliament in Brussels, at 10:45 to observe a minute of silence.

Martin Schulz said, “We have learnt with great shock and sadness of the terrorist attack against the Paris office of weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo. This heinous act is an attack against our values of freedom of expression and freedom of the press, against tolerance and mutual respect. I condemn it strongly.”

“On behalf of the European Parliament, I express my condolences to the families and friends of the victims,” he added.

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Could it be that when Ludwig van Beethoven composed some of the greatest masterpieces of all time that he was quite literally following his heart?

The striking rhythms found in some of Beethoven’s most famous works may have been inspired by his own heartbeat, says a team of researchers from the University of Michigan and University of Washington that includes a cardiologist, medical historian, and musicologist.

Authors of a new essay that appears in Perspectives in Biology and Medicine analyzed several of Beethoven’s compositions for clues of a heart condition some have speculated he had. The rhythms of certain parts of renowned works, researchers say, may in fact reflect the irregular rhythms of Beethoven’s own heart caused by cardiac arrhythmia.

“His music may have been both figuratively and physically heartfelt,” says co-author Joel Howell, M.D., Ph.D, a professor of Internal Medicine at the University of Michigan Medical School and member of the U-M Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation. “When your heart beats irregularly from heart disease, it does so in some predictable patterns. We think we hear some of those same patterns in his music.”

“The synergy between our minds and our bodies shapes how we experience the world. This is especially apparent in the world of arts and music, which reflects so much of people’s innermost experiences,” Howell adds.

The essay’s lead author is Zachary D. Goldberger, M.D., M.S., a cardiologist at Harborview Medical Center, University of Washington School of Medicine and a former cardiology fellow and Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholar at U-M. Steven Whiting, Ph.D, a musicologist and Beethoven expert from the U-M School of Music, Theatre and Dance, is the other author.

The team studied the rhythmic patterns of several compositions that may reflect Beethoven’s experience of an arrhythmia, a condition that causes the heart to beat too fast, too slow, or with an irregular rhythm. Sudden, unexpected changes in pace and keys in Beethoven’s music appear to match such asymmetrical patterns.

Take for example the final movement “Cavatina” in Beethoven’s String Quartet in B-flat Major, Opus 130, an emotionally-charged piece that Beethoven said always made him weep. In the middle of the quartet, the key suddenly changes to C-flat major, involving an unbalanced rhythm that evokes dark emotion, disorientation and what has even been described as a “shortness of breath.”

In the composer’s directions to musicians playing the piece, the section is marked beklemmt, a German word that translates to “heavy of heart.”

Authors note that “heavy of heart” could mean sadness but may also describe the sensation of pressure, a feeling that is associated with cardiac disease. “The arrhythmic quality of this section is unquestionable,” they write.

Researchers identified arrhythmic patterns in other pieces as well. They studied the Piano Sonata in A-flat major, Opus 110 – the central sonata in a group of three that comprise Beethoven’s final contributions to the genre – and the opening of the “Les Adieux” Sonata (sonata opus 81a, in E-flat major) written during the French attack on Vienna in 1809.

Beethoven has been linked with a litany of mysterious health problems including inflammatory bowel disease, Paget’s disease (abnormal bone destruction), liver disease, alcohol abuse, and kidney disease. His most often described ailment was deafness, which the authors say could have heightened his other senses and made him even more aware of his heartbeat.

“We can’t prove or disprove that Beethoven had many of the diseases he’s been supposedly afflicted with because almost all of today’s diagnostic medical tests didn’t exist in the 18th century, and we are interpreting centuries-old medical descriptions into the context of what we know now,” says Goldberger.

“However, the symptoms and common association of an abnormal heartbeat with so many diseases makes it a reasonable assumption that Beethoven experienced arrhythmia – and the works we describe may be ‘musical electrocardiograms,’ the readout of modern heart rhythm testing equipment.

“While these musical arrhythmias may simply manifest Beethoven’s genius, there is a possibility that in certain pieces his beating heart could literally be at the heart of some of the greatest masterpieces of all time.”

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By US President Barack Obama,

(White House) — I’ve reached out to President Hollande of France and hope to have the opportunity to talk to him today. But I thought it was appropriate for me to express my deepest sympathies to the people of Paris and the people of France for the terrible terrorist attack that took place earlier today.

I think that all of us recognize that France is one of our oldest allies, our strongest allies. They have been with us at every moment when we’ve — from 9/11 on, in dealing with some of the terrorist organizations around the world that threaten us. For us to see the kind of cowardly evil attacks that took place today I think reinforces once again why it’s so important for us to stand in solidarity with them, just as they stand in solidarity with us.

The fact that this was an attack on journalists, attack on our free press, also underscores the degree to which these terrorists fear freedom — of speech and freedom of the press. But the one thing that I’m very confident about is that the values that we share with the French people, a belief — a universal belief in the freedom of expression, is something that can’t be silenced because of the senseless violence of the few.

And so our counterterrorism cooperation with France is excellent. We will provide them with every bit of assistance that we can going forward. I think it’s going to be important for us to make sure that we recognize these kinds of attacks can happen anywhere in the world. And one of the things I’ll be discussing with Secretary Kerry today is to make sure that we remain vigilant not just with respect to Americans living in Paris, but Americans living in Europe and in the Middle East and other parts of the world, and making sure that we stay vigilant in trying to protect them — and to hunt down and bring the perpetrators of this specific act to justice, and to roll up the networks that help to advance these kinds of plots.

In the end, though, the most important thing I want to say is that our thoughts and prayers are with the families of those who’ve been lost in France, and with the people of Paris and the people of France. What that beautiful city represents — the culture and the civilization that is so central to our imaginations — that’s going to endure. And those who carry out senseless attacks against innocent civilians, ultimately they’ll be forgotten. And we will stand with the people of France through this very, very difficult time.

Thank you very much, everybody.

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Recent rapid growth in U.S. production of light tight oil has raised interest in understanding how U.S. refineries, many of which are configured to process heavier crude oil, might accommodate increased volumes of domestic light crude. The U.S. refinery fleet, which is distributed across Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) as shown in Figure 1, varies both within and across regions in capacity, quality of crude oil inputs, utilization rates, and sources of crude supply.

The East Coast (PADD 1), which has 10 operable refineries, 9 of which are currently operating, with 1.3 million barrels per stream day (bbl/sd) of atmospheric crude distillation unit capacity (ACDU). Stream day capacity, the maximum number of barrels of input that a distillation facility can process within a 24-hour period when running at full capacity under optimal crude and product slate conditions with no allowance for downtime, is typically about 6% higher than calendar day capacity, which reflects usual operating conditions including both planned and unplanned maintenance.

PADD 1 gross inputs (which include crude oil, straight-run fuel oil, and topped crude) averaged 1.1 million bbl/d in 2014 (through October, the latest data available), which is consistent with recent years. More than 70% of the region’s capacity is at refineries that do not have coking units that can upgrade heavy crude oil into higher-valued lighter products, such as distillate and gasoline. As a result, PADD 1 refineries process mostly light crude oil, as reflected in an average API gravity of crude runs averaging 34.2, the highest in the country last year. (API gravity is an inverse measure of the density of a petroleum liquid relative to water. The higher the number, the lower the density of the petroleum liquid compared to water.)

Historically, most crude supply to PADD 1 has been imported light sweet crude. The region lacks crude oil pipeline connections from domestic production regions and has very limited in-region production. However, since 2010, rising light tight crude oil production in the Bakken formation in North Dakota, combined with the expansion of crude-by-rail infrastructure, has reduced the region’s import dependence. East Coast imports of crude oil averaged 98% of gross refinery inputs in 2010 but only 51% in 2014. While access to Bakken crude oil has provided PADD 1 refineries with crude selection flexibility, actual refinery crude slates will continue to be a function of relative crude prices.

The Midwest (PADD 2) is the second-largest refining region in the country, with 27 operable refineries. The 26 refineries currently operating have 4.1 million bbl/sd of ACDU capacity, 70% of which is at facilities with coking capacity. Since 2010, several Midwest refiners have reconfigured their facilities to process more heavy crude, adding a total of 157,000 bbl/sd of coking capacity. Over the same time, ACDU capacity has increased by 148,000 bbl/sd and gross inputs have risen by 205,000 bbl/d. With the increase in heavy crude oil capacity, the average API gravity of crude inputs in PADD 2 has decreased slightly from 33.3 in 2010 to 32.9 through October 2014. Unlike the rest of the country, imports of crude oil into the Midwest are increasing, as the region runs more Canadian crude. This trend, combined with increases in regional production, has reduced PADD 2’s reliance on both U.S. and imported crude moved by pipeline from the Gulf Coast.

More than 50% of the country’s refinery capacity and most of the country’s heavy crude processing capacity is located in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3). The region’s 51 operating refineries with ACDU units have capacity totaling 9.7 million bbl/sd, 81% of which is located at facilities with coking capacity. Recent expansions have increased ACDU and coking capacity by 625,000 bbl/sd and 160,000 bbl/sd, respectively, since 2010. Despite the expanded capacity, utilization has remained steady and the region has recently set records for high levels of gross inputs.

Changes to crude oil supply patterns are most pronounced in the Gulf Coast. Net imports into the region have fallen by 2.3 million bbl/d, and light sweet crude imports have been largely replaced by domestic production. In addition, from 2010 to 2014, the average API gravity of crude inputs rose by 1 degree, indicating that average crude slates are becoming lighter. Crude oil production in PADD 3 has increased by 1.9 million barrels since 2010 and receipts of crude oil from PADD 2, including both U.S. and Canadian production, have increased as well. With more Canadian and domestic barrels moving south from PADD 2 to PADD 3 and lower demand for crude shipments from PADD 3 to PADD 2, net receipts for PADD 3 were positive in October 2014 for the first time since December 1985. Instead of being a net source of crude supply for neighboring regions, PADD 3 shipments and receipts are now roughly at parity.

The Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4) has the least amount of refining capacity, 17 refineries with 0.7 million bbl/sd ACDU capacity. Just over half of the capacity (55%) is at refineries with coking capacity. Runs in the region have increased 6% since 2010 due to a combination of an increase in utilization and expansion of capacity. The API gravity of crude processed has not changed significantly since 2010, and in 2014 averaged 33.7 through October. PADD 4 crude oil production has increased 64% since 2010 and now exceeds regional crude runs, making the Rocky Mountains the only region that is a net supplier to other PADDs.

The West Coast (PADD 5) has 30 operating refineries with 3.1 million bbl/sd ACDU capacity, two-thirds of which is at facilities with coking capacity. Gross inputs in the region have been steady, averaging 2.6 million bbl/d since 2010. Due in large part to the quality of crude oil produced in California, PADD 5 runs have the lowest API gravity in the country, averaging 28.4 in 2014. Refineries in the region also run other domestic crudes; e.g., Alaska North Slope and Bakken. The region runs roughly equal amounts of domestic and imported crude oil, but declining Alaskan production has been offset by crude receipts by rail from PADD 2.

With U.S. crude production in 2015 expected to average 9.3 million bbl/d, 700,000 bbl/d above the 2014 level, domestic refiners will continue to face changing supply and demand conditions, even as continued production growth in the first months of the year transitions to a more static production outlook as the effects of the recent sharp decline in oil prices are reflected in drilling decisions. Changes to infrastructure, refinery capacity, crude oil price differentials based on quality, and policy decisions will also affect refinery operations in the coming year.

U.S. gasoline and diesel prices fall, Midwest and Gulf Coast gasoline prices below $2 per gallon for first time since 2009

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline on January 5, 2015 was $2.21 per gallon, down nine cents from the previous week and $1.12 per gallon less than the same time last year. For the first time since 2009, two regions have average prices below $2 per gallon: the Midwest (down 11 cents to $1.97 per gallon) and the Gulf Coast (down 8 cents to $1.99 per gallon). The Rocky Mountain price fell 11 cents to $2.11 per gallon. The East Coast price declined eight cents to $2.36 per gallon, while the West Coast was down four cents to $2.58 per gallon.

The U.S. average price for diesel fuel declined eight cents to $3.14 per gallon, down 77 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices declined 10 cents, to $3.10 per gallon and $3.14 per gallon, respectively. The Gulf Coast was down eight cents to $3.05 per gallon. The East and West Coast prices both fell five cents, to $3.20 per gallon and $3.22 per gallon, respectively.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week to 75.7 million barrels as of January 2, 2015, 33.2 million barrels (78.3%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels and Midwest inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels. Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels, while East Coast inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 4.8% of total propane inventories.

Residential fuel prices decrease

As of January 5, 2015, residential heating oil prices averaged less than $2.97 per gallon, nearly 8 cents per gallon lower than last week, and $1.05 per gallon less than last year’s price for the same week. Wholesale heating oil prices averaged $1.91 per gallon, 9 cents per gallon lower than last week and $1.16 per gallon lower when compared to the same time last year.

Residential propane prices averaged less than $2.36 per gallon, 1 cent per gallon lower than last week, and over 47 cents per gallon less than the price at the same time last year. The average wholesale propane price decreased by almost 4 cents per gallon this week to less than 59 cents per gallon, just under $1.10 per gallon lower than the January 6, 2014 price.

The post US Regional Refinery Trends Continue To Evolve – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Global Financial Crisis has increased the importance of the renminbi as an international currency. This column describes how the status of the remnibi has changed relative to that of the dollar and the euro. It also discusses what their future as future currencies would be. The author suggests that within 10 years, the renminbi would be at least at par with the dollar as a regional trade settlement currency in East Asia. It is also likely to become a close second to the euro as a world reserve currency.

By Alex Cukierman*

The increasingly important status of the renminbi

According to the Triennial Central Bank Survey (2013) in 2007, just prior to the eruption of the US subprime crisis and two years before the emergence of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, forex deals with the US dollar on one side of the transaction represented 85.6% of total average daily foreign exchange market turnover, making it the most widely traded currency in the world.¹ The comparable figure for the euro was 37%, putting it in a distant second place after the dollar. By contrast, the same metric indicates that with a meager share of 0.5%, the renminbi (RMB) was ranked in the 20th slot. In April 2013, the share of the USD had gone up to 87% that of the euro, down to 33.4%, and that of the RMB up to 2,2% of total average daily forex turnover.

Although the euro lost (and the dollar gained) some ground during the six years between 2007 and 2013, the USD and the euro maintained their first and second ranks, respectively. However, the RMB climbed from the 20th to the 9th slot. Although its share is still very modest, the rate of growth of transactions involving it is very large. If as some economists believe this trend persists, the RMB may match the Japanese yen and the British pound and achieve the status of a key currency within the next decade.

The view that the RMB will in due time become a key currency has been around for some time even before the Global Financial Crisis (Carbaugh and Hedrick 2009, Salvatore 2011). It is supported mainly by a record of fast rates of growth of the Chinese economy, by the growth of China’s share in international trade during the last 30 years, and by a somewhat similar historical precedent involving the USD a hundred years ago (Eichengreen 2011).² Although China is already a giant on the current account side of the balance of payments, it is still behind in capital account transactions.³ In this respect, the RMB is obviously far behind major key currencies like the USD and the euro. In terms of both turnover on forex markets and use as a reserve currency, it is still dominated by lesser major currencies such as the yen, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and even the Australian and the New-Zealand dollars.

The impact of the Crisis on the relative positions of the USD and the euro vs. the RMB

The Global Financial Crisis triggered a number of changes in the relative positions of the US and the Eurozone on one hand, and that of China on the other. Although to date those changes have not appreciably altered the position of the RMB vis-a-vis the other two currencies, they have put in motion processes that have the potential to establish the RMB as a regional key currency within the next five to ten years. Foremost among those are the slowdowns in real growth and in international trade activity since the outbreaks of the subprime crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in the US and in the Eurozone, respectively. Admittedly, the ripple effects of the Global Financial Crisis also slowed down Chinese growth. Nonetheless, due to the persistence of the slowdown in real growth, particularly in the Eurozone, the relative position of China in terms of both GDP and share of international trade has risen in comparison to its pre-crisis level.

About a year after the November 2008 G20 Washington Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy the leaders of the G20 group, of which China is a member, announced that this group would replace the G8 as the main economic council of wealthy nations. Since China was not a member of the G8 this change officially opened the door to its participation in decision making regarding the international financial system.⁴ It is likely that this official recognition of China’s increasing financial clout prompted Governor Zhou Xiaochuan from the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to propose a new international monetary system in which the IMF Special Drawing Rights would eventually replace the dollar as the world’s main reserve currency (Xiaochuan 2009). Although this proposal did not take off, it signalled the beginning of China’s involvment in attempts to reshape the international monetary system.

One of the conditions for becoming a key currency is the existence of deep and liquid bond markets in the currency. In terms of outstanding stocks, RMB denominated bonds are obviously far behind their US and Eurozone counterparts. However, by reducing the volume of new bond issues in both the US and the Eurozone, the Crisis initiated a process that is reducing this gap. In particular, the US subprime crisis dramatically reduced the volume of US net new bond issues. This volume dropped from a yearly average of about $3 trillion in 2004-2007, to about $200 billion per year in 2008-2013. The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis had an even stronger adverse effect. The net new volume of bond issues in the Eurzone dropped from a yearly average of slightly less than €2 trillions in 2007-2009 to practically zero between 2010 and 2013.⁵

By contrast, the issue of RMB denominated offshore bonds accelerated dramatically during those years. A RMB Road Map (2014) published by ASIFMA reports that offshore RMB debt sold in the first quarter of 2014 peaked at 31 billion USD following an increase of over 200% during the previous three years. If those relative trends continue for several more years, the yuan denominated bond market will quickly acquire a respectable (although not yet dominant) position. During the first three quarters of 2011, RMB trade settlements amounted to about 8% of China’s trade in goods and services.⁶ The Chinese government actively promotes such developments, particularly with trading partners within the ASEAN group of countries.⁷

The future of the USD, the euro, and the RMB as key currencies

It was clear even prior to the Global Financial Crisis that, in terms of GDP, China will eventually be the largest economy in the world. China is currently second only to the US. The Crisis moved the point in time at which China will surpass the US closer to the present. Jorgenson and Vu (2011) estimate that this will happen sometime between 2018 and 2020. It is clear that this change in relative size will eventually also elevate the RMB to, at least, the status of a major regional currency.

There is little doubt that the Crisis moved the time of RMB exchange convertibility closer to the present by making Chinese policymakers more anxious to attain key currency status sooner, as well as by raising the growth differential between China and the issuers of current key currencies. But this still leaves the question of precise timing open. The Chinese authorities are keenly aware of the potential international role of their currency. Subject to the constraint that their control over the domestic financial system and the exchange rate does not dissipate too quickly, they are taking steps aimed at increasing the role of the RMB in the settlement of trade transactions as well as at the creation of an offshore RMB denominated capital market.⁸ The current separation between on-shore and off-shore allows the Chinese authorities to foster the growth of an international RMB denominated bond market without losing control over the on-shore financial system. The offshore market has recently been growing by leaps and bound and spreading to major internationalfinancial centres beyond Hong-Kong.

Since 2006, the Chinese government has allowed a substantial but gradual and controlled appreciation of the RMB – from over 8 RMBs to one USD in 2005, to the current (November 2014) rate of 6,13. It is likely that this persistent appreciation of the RMB along with expectations  of additional liberalisation of the exchange rate nurture expectations for further appreciation of the yuan. Those expectations naturally envigorate demands for RMB denominated bonds in offshore markets and with, it the volume of RMB denominated assets in the world.

Eichengreen and Flandreau (2009, 2010) document an intriguing similarity between the USD at the beginning of the 20th century and the RMB today. In spite of the fact that, by 1914 US trade had surpassed that of the UK, the leading key currency of the time was the sterling. They convincingly demonstrate that, given this background and following active promotion of the USD as an international currency by US authorities, the USD surpassed the sterling as a leading international and reserve currency within a span of just ten years. An implication of this historical episode is that, if Chinese authorities seriously undertake the international promotion of their currency, the RMB is likely to become a key currency relatively quickly.

How vigorously will the Chines authorities pursue such a policy hinges on the tradeoff between the benefits of promoting the RMB to key currency level and the political and economic risks associated with relinquishing control over on-shore financial markets as perceived by the Chinese authorities. In tackling this fundamental question one should not lose sight of the basic ideological differences between the US and China. US norms favour minimal government intervention, free markets, and individualism. By contrast, the ideology of ruling Chinese elites is that individual behaviour should be largely subordinated to the needs and requirements of the state and to its aggrandizement (Craig 2009). This ideology implies that, subject to adequate economic development, the government should retain sufficient control in order to achieve the state objectives.

Concluding remarks

In conclusion, although the USD/sterling historical precedent supports the view that Chinese authorities have the ability to quickly elevate the RMB to major currency status, they may delay full implementation of the necessary steps because they consider relinquishment of financial and exchange rate controls as a major cost.⁹ On the other hand, recent experience shows that a financial crisis, such as the Global Crisis in the countries issuing major key currencies, encourages Chinese authorities to speed up the process of liberalisation in order to achieve key currency status sooner.

My current judgment (November 2014) is that within ten years the RMB will at least be at par with the USD (and surpass the euro) as a regional trade settlement currency in east Asia.¹⁰ The RMB is also likely to become a close second to the euro as a world reserve currency. Ruling out the recurrence of a major financial crisis in the US, the dollar will maintain its position as the world number one currency for both trade settlements and capital account transactions except possibly in East Asia. The euro will continue to function as the major currency in Europe although its share of total daily forex turnover will go down and may even be overtaken by the RMB.

Looking ahead about ten years, the most likely scenario is that of a tri-polar system in which the USD maintains its primary key currency position, the euro functions as the main currency in Europe, and the RMB fulfills the same function, at least for trade settlements, in east Asia.

About the author:
* Alex Cukierman
Professor of Economics, Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University and CEPR Research Fellow

References
Aubain M (2012), “Use of Currencies in International Trade: Any Change in the Picture?” World Trade Organization Staff Working Paper ERSD-2012-10.

Carbaugh R and D Hedrick (2009), “Will the $ be Dethroned as the Main Reserve Currency?”, Global Economy Journal, 9(3), The Berkeley Electronic Press.

Craig J (2009), “Are East Asian Economic Models Sustainable?” http://cpds.apana.org.au/Teams/Articles/AsiaSustainable.htm#Unsustainable

Cukierman A (2010), “The Roles of Ideology, Institutions, Politics and Economic Knowledge in Forecasting Macroeconomic Developments: Lessons from the Crisis”, CESifo Economic Studies, 56 (4), 575-595, December.

Cukierman A (2014), “Euro-Area and US Banks Behavior and ECB-Fed Monetary Policies during the Global Financial Crisis: A Comparison”, Paper prepared for the SUERF Colloquium on Money, Regulation and Growth: Financing New Growth in Europe.

Eichengreen B (2011), “The Renminbi as an International Currency”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 723-730.

Eichengreen B and M Flandreau (2009), “The Rise and Fall of the Dollar”,            European Review of Economic History, 13, 377-411.

Eichengreen B and M Flandreau (2010), “The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Rise of the dollar as an International Currency, 1914-1939”, BIS Working Paper No 328, November.

Jorgenson D and K Vu (2011), “The Rise of Developing Asia and the New Economic Order”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 698-716.

Prasad E and L Ye (2012), “The Renminbi Role in the Global Monetary System”, Brookings Global Economy and Development.

RMB Road Map (2014), ASIFMA’s 4th Offshore RMB Markets Conference, March.

Salvatore D (2011), “The Future Tri-Polar International Monetary System”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 776-785.

Triennial Central Bank Survey – Foreign Exchange Turnover in April 2013: Preliminary Global Results (2013), September.

Xiaochuan Z (2009), “Reforming the International Financial System”, People’s Bank of China, 3 March.

Footnotes
1 The sum of the percentages adds up to 200 since, by convention, volume figures attribute the volume of any given traded currency pair to each of the currencies in the pair.

2 In 2010, China surpassed Japan in terms of GDP and became the second largest economy in the world after the US.

3 Aubain (2012) reports that although the share of China in international trade (at 11.4%) is similar to that of the US, the share of the RMB in world trade payments is only a quarter of a percent (see, in particular, his Figure 1).

4 There is little doubt that the decision to replace the G8 with the G20 was influenced in no small part by the financial panic cum credit arrest following the downfall of Lehman brothers in mid September 2008.

5 Details for the US and the Eurozone appear, respectively, in Figures 6b and 6a of Cukierman (2014).

6 Further details appear in Prasad and Ye (2012), pp. 37-38.

7 The ASEAN group includes: South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Phillipines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos.

8 Box 5.1 in Prasad and Ye (2012) provides examples of specific measures. They include allowing overseas institutions to apply for RMB accounts for trade settlements, signing currency pacts with Brazil and Japan to promote the use of their currencies for bilateral trade and investment flows, allowing the Bank of China to offer RMB deposit accounts in NY, and allowing J.P. Morgan to create a 1 billion RMB denominated fund in November 2011

9 Cukierman (2010) discusses the role of ideology, institutions and politics for macroeconomic forecasting.

10 Salvatore (2011) expresses a similar view.

The post The Crisis And The Renminbi’s International Role – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Burkina Faso’s elections have been set for some time for next November, but it remains unclear who will be able to vote, reports MISNA.

The problem is in fact Burkina Faso nationals living abroad, due to insufficient time to set up a voting system abroad. The problem was confirmed by interim President Michel Kafando after a meeting with political parties and civil society representatives.

“It will be difficult to organize voting abroad and a major problem disturbing us regards the expatriates in the Ivory Coast”, said Kafando. His statement was echoes also by another political leader Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, stressing that Burkina’s Diaspora has never been officially censused.

Based on 2013 UN estimates, around 1.5 million Burkinabe’ are living in the Ivory Coast.

The post Burkina Faso: Voting Problem For Citizens Living Abroad appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Hundreds of workers from regional power companies and Iran Tire gathered in front of the Iranian parliament to protest the use of temporary contracts.

ILNA reports that on Wednesday, 500 regional power company workers from across the country protested against their temporary contracts at a gathering in front of the Parliament.

ISNA reported the number as 200 high-voltage technicians. ILNA added, however, that Iran Tire workers also joined the protest to complain about their temporary contracts.

An Iran Tire worker told ILNA that it is unfair to hire workers on a temporary basis for a job that is continuous and is not even seasonal. This means that workers do the job of a permanent worker but are denied any insurance or benefits and even their wages are lower.

Temporary contracts are one of the chief problems faced by Iranian workers. Parliament is now looking at changes in labour/employment legislation to encourage investment that could possibly erode worker power by giving companies more leeway in the employee-employer relationship.

The post Iran: Workers Slam Temporary Contracts At Parliament Protest appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The head of INTERPOL has strongly condemned the terrorist attack on the offices of a magazine in Paris in which 12 people were killed.

“On behalf of the world police community INTERPOL condemns this horrendous and cold-blooded attack in the strongest terms and extends its condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims,” said Secretary General Jürgen Stock.

The world police body has offered its full support to the French authorities following the incident in which masked gunmen opened fire at the Charlie Hebdo headquarters. Among the victims were two police officers and four cartoonists, including the magazine’s editor.

INTERPOL’s 24-hour Command and Coordination Centre is on standby to provide any assistance requested by the National Central Bureau in Paris in relation to the ongoing investigation to identify and locate the three gunmen.

The post INTERPOL Chief Strongly Condemns Terror Attack On Magazine Offices In Paris appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Canada has agreed to resettle another 10,000 Syrian and 3,000 Iraqi refugees over the next three years in response to a UN plea for help, Al Arabiya reported citing the immigration minister.

This meets 10 percent of the latest UN refugee agency’s appeal for help resettling people fleeing violence in the two countries.

According to a report released earlier by the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, the number of Syrian refugees has outstripped Afghans as the largest displaced population in need of protection.

“Syrians and Iraqis face the worst forms of violence in the world today,” said Immigration Minister Chris Alexander, pointing to the Islamic Group’s “murderous rampage across Syria and Iraq and (its) systematic killing of anyone who does not adhere to their distorted version of Islam.”

Millions have been displaced by escalating violence.

Since 2009, Canada has welcomed 20,000 Iraqi refugees. More than 1,000 Syrian refugees have also landed on Canadian shores since the start of a Syrian civil war in 2011.

The opposition, however, has criticized the government for being slow to act and for not taking in more refugees from the region.

The post Canada Opens Doors To 13,000 Syrian, Iraqi Refugees appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“The development of full artificial intelligence (AI) could spell the end of the human race,” Stephen Hawking, world-renowned theoretical physicist, told the BBC recently.

“AI is a more serious threat to the survival of the human race than nuclear power,” according to Elon Musk, leading high-tech investor and CEO of Tesla.

The question is, if Hawking and Musk are concerned, should we be as well? As technological development accelerates at an exponential rate, how can we ensure that we are not subsumed by it? And what role do ethics have in guiding us through this brave new world? Earlier this month, futurist Gerd Leonhard explored these questions in a talk at TEDx Brussels: ‘Digital ethics and the future of humans in a connected world’.

Picture this image of the future: nanobots in your bloodstream can fix your cholesterol; a chip in your body can track your health and share the information with your doctor, but also your insurance company; almost everything – music, film, health records, banking, etc. – is digitised or automated and what you eat, drink, watch and communicate can be tracked.

These things could improve our wellbeing and safety but they could also compromise any sense of solitude and privacy. Are they disturbing or useful, Leonhard asked the TEDx crowd. It’s a question that we need to quickly consider because technology is progressing at ‘exponential warp speed’ and by 2029, he said, machines will have similar or vaster intelligence vis-à-vis humans.

“Is Google tracking your every step creepy or useful?” asked Leonard, “that depends on your ethics.”

The privacy vs. security debate, Leonhard said, holds the key to why ethics are important. But who should decide for us what is ethically sound when it comes to our privacy? Our governments? Leonhard pointed to the track records of some governments on the issue.

According to Leonhard, “The director of the FBI says that what Apple is doing right now – allowing people to hide behind encryption on the new iPhones (allegedly) – should be forbidden. The director of GCHQ says that “privacy has never been an absolute right,” and President Obama says it’s important to recognise that you can’t have 100 % security and also have 100 % privacy.”

What about the increasingly powerful intermediaries at Facebook et al, Leonhard asked: “Should we leave ethical decisions to those who control access or platforms or tools or apps or websites? Is that a good idea? Well it depends on who it is but this is not a black or white question.”

In the future, as another three billion people come online, digital ethics will come front and centre, Leonhard insisted, “Now we have intelligent next generation personal assistants like Siri and Cortana and ‘AI in the cloud': Will humanity become trackable, easily manipulated remote-controlled identical people? Is the future going to be utter belief in technology? Technology can fix anything?”

“Technology is now going inside of us and we are going inside of technology,” he continued, “that’s really what AI means – a piece of humanity going inside a machine.”

Leonhard dubbed this fast approaching reality as ‘Helven’ – Heaven and Hell, depending on how you look at it.

“The question,” he said, “is no longer if we can do something, because the answer is yes, sooner or later. The new question has to be why and who and when.”

After tabling so many ethical questions, Leonhard proposed some guidance.

“We need a balance. We need to pursue humanness and technology – allowing inefficiency and driving efficiency. Exponential is about velocity, power and the network effect. I would like to propose a new tag called “humanential” which is about depth, meaning and self-realisation. Those things are converging,” Leonhard said.

He noted the three basic rules that the World Future Society advises when it comes to the ethics of our future reality: Humans should not become technology; humans should not be subject to dominant enforcement by AI and humans should not fabricate new creatures.

“Without a stronger focus on digital ethics,” Leonhard warned in conclusion, “we may very well be facing an extinction threat by our own inventions.”

Source: CORDIS

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Killing in response to insult, no matter how gross, must be unequivocally condemned. That is why what happened in Paris and the killing of 12 people at the office of the newspaper Charlie Hebdo cannot be tolerated. But neither should we tolerate the kind of intolerance that provoked this violent reaction.

Those who work at this newspaper have a long and disgusting record of going way beyond the mere lampooning of public figures, and this is especially true of their depictions of religious figures. For example, they have shown nuns masturbating and popes wearing condoms. They have also shown Muhammad in pornographic poses.

While some Muslims today object to any depiction of the Prophet, others do not. Moreover, visual representations of him are not proscribed by the Koran. What unites Muslims in their anger against Charlie Hebdo is the vulgar manner in which Muhammad has been portrayed. What they object to is being intentionally insulted over the course of many years. On this aspect, I am in total agreement with them.

Stephane Charbonnier, the paper’s publisher, was killed today in the slaughter. It is too bad that he didn’t understand the role he played in his tragic death. In 2012, when asked why he insults Muslims, he said, “Muhammad isn’t sacred to me.” Had he not been so narcissistic, he may still be alive. Muhammad isn’t sacred to me, either, but it would never occur to me to deliberately insult Muslims by trashing him.

Anti-Catholic artists in this country have provoked me to hold many demonstrations, but never have I counseled violence. This, however, does not empty the issue. Madison was right when he said, “Liberty may be endangered by the abuses of liberty as well as the abuses of power.”

The post Muslims Are Right To Be Angry – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Cameron McKibben*

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto met with President Obama on Tuesday, January 6, in Washington, D.C. The White House Press Secretary described the visit as an opportunity to “continue strengthening the strategic partnership…expanding dialogue and cooperation between the United States and Mexico on economic, security and social issues, as well as underscoring the deep cultural ties and friendship that exist between our two countries.” [1]

Obama praised Peña Nieto’s push for economic reforms in his speech on January 4 concerning the new year, seen as an attempt to downplay Mexico’s security environment, and similar admiration was expressed by the Mexican president for President Obama’s recent executive order aimed at protecting nearly 5 million undocumented persons from deportation, at the meeting. Still, security issues remained the forefront of the leaders’ discussion. Since the implementation of the failed Plan Mexico in 2008 under President Calderón, drug cartels have only increased their violence and diversified their operations to include migrant smuggling and other forms of human exploitation.

The increasing levels of violence and corruption within Mexico have been augmented by the President’s escalation of the aggressive, militarized Mérida Initiative, or “Plan Mexico” aimed at combating the drug trade. Corruption has been directly linked to the president through the scandal involving his wife’s purchase of a multi-million dollar mansion, built by Higa, for a fraction of the cost. [2] This has sparked investigations into preferential treatment of the construction company when awarding government contracts, notably a high-speed railway project during Peña Nieto’s presidency and millions worth of contracts while acting as governor.

Large social movements of Mexican citizens, the U.S. Latino community, and progressive Americans alike have engaged in protests opposing President Peña Nieto’s policies regarding the drug trade and corruption as well as Obama’s decision to host the Mexican president. This included the SOA Watch protest against Peña Nieto’s visit, the U.S. “War on Drugs,” and in memory of those disappeared in Mexico as a result, under the slogan “Enrique Peña Nieto NOT WELCOME.” The social movements share the view that the Mexican government, at all levels, has been infiltrated by the drug trafficking organizations and are critical of President Obama’s support of its policies.

During a phone interview, Salvador Reza a coordinator at Arizona-based Tonatierra, a non-profit Indigenous Mexicans’ rights organization with 23 years of experience on U.S.-Mexico border activity, stated that, “Obama is making a big mistake by propping up a narco-government.” He continued to say, “The [Peña Nieto] administration should resign and allow the Mexican people to decide what kind of government that they want.” [3]

The September 2014 Iguala disappearance of the 43 students from the Teachers’ College of Ayotzinapa in the streets of Guerrero has marked an ominous tipping point for the volume of violence that Mexico’s civil society can withstand. A mother of one of the disappeared remarked that, “…if they want war they will have war. We are no longer afraid, we no longer have anything to lose.” [4] Several human rights organizations have estimated the number of disappeared persons since 2006 to be around 200,000, despite the Mexican Government’s claim that the number is around a tenth of that. [5]

As a result of the Mexican political system’s inability to initiate change, protests and social media movements calling for social justice and truth have emerged throughout Mexico, characterized by the hashtag #YaMeCansé and the U.S. equivalent, #USTired2.

Human rights abuses by the military and federal police continue to be increasing parallel to the rising violence with newly uncovered violations through survivor accounts. Moreover, a University of California Berkeley report has provided significant documentary evidence of the involvement of federal police and the military in the Ayotzinapa 43 tragedy. Civil society and human rights organizations issued a statement declaring that, “[w]hat happened in Ayotzinapa is not an isolated act; forced disappearance is a mechanism that the Mexican State has used to silence and contain social movements.” [6]

Following the massacre, the search for the students’ bodies has unearthed at least 25 separate mass graves dating back to October and November 2014, according to the Associated Press. [7] These findings were discovered in the midst of a search that has confirmed the death of only one of the 43 allegedly murdered and burned corpses. [8]

The recent events have resulted in Peña Nieto’s approval ratings dropping to under 40 percent in a recent Reforma poll and a crisis of eroding democratic legitimacy for his administration. [9] In the wake of a tumultuous 2014, Peña Nieto’s White House visit marks a critical juncture for him to secure continued U.S. security assistance and to attract U.S. investors amid violence, destabilization, and resulting protest movements.

However, the U.S. border area has not been out of reach of drug traffickers and organized crime operations. According to a Politico report conducted by Garrett M. Graff, “between 2005 and 2012, nearly one [Customs and Border Protection] officer was arrested for misconduct every single day,” including colluding with cartels and sexual assaults against migrants. [10] This penetration of the drug trade into the U.S. southern border poses an increasingly serious security concern for the Obama Administration as well as the Mexican political system.

Both the violence and human rights violations have sparked outrage in the United States over the Obama administration’s continued appropriation of U.S. security aid, through the Mérida Initiative, to a Mexican government viewed as corrupt. This continued support acts counter to the language of the U.S. Leahy Law prohibiting military assistance to “any unit of the security forces of a foreign country if the Secretary of State has credible information that such unit has committed a gross violation of human rights.”

This is not the first time that the United States has skirted its responsibility to uphold human rights. Similar cases occurred during the “false positives” scandal in Colombia and the use of a “certification” process during the Civil War in El Salvador exemplify important cases of the continued flow of U.S. security aid despite known human rights violations being perpetrated by the recipient governments. [11] Meanwhile, as the Obama Administration hosts a Mexican president with dubious human rights credentials, it claims that the Venezuelan government committed human rights violations against anti-government protesters and moves, paradoxically and unilaterally, to impose sanctions on the Maduro government. [12]

Historic U.S. support for Plan Mexico has, whether intentional or not, exacerbated the deteriorating democratic processes in Mexico through weakening its legislature and threatening civil liberties, particularly via the estados de excepción, instituted under Calderón. Such measures have given the military unprecedented power in the drug war, fueling its human rights abuses. Since 2008, the U.S. Congress has allocated $2.3 billion to Mérida Initiative programs and its activities. [13] Continued support for Peña Nieto’s policy, seen as an extension of Calderón’s policy, at this level continues to threaten the presence of the democratic institutions existing in Mexico.

Despite the presence of the protestors at the White House condemning the systematic human rights violations occurring in Mexico, a LatinNews brief of the presidential meeting reports that Obama continued to express his support for the Mexican president, reinforcing the U.S. government’s stand to fight organized crime, particularly within the drug trade. The only mention of human rights violations was President Obama’s statement that “the Mexican government has prime responsibility for enforcing the rule of law in its own territory.” [14]

The past two weeks represent a tactical shift in U.S. policy aimed at reasserting influence in Latin America, including the reopening of relations with Cuba. President Obama declared the United States to be renewing its leadership in the region, leaving U.S. policymakers with a decision to make:

Will the United States continue its current policy of providing security assistance to Mexico even as state actors have been implicated in serious human rights violations? Or will Washington transition to an authentic pro-democracy policy aimed at supporting the legitimate concerns of social movements for combating corruption, advancing human development through democratic procedures, and restoring the rule of law? The answer to these questions should become clear in the days ahead.

* Cameron McKibben, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.

[1] The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Statement By The Press Secretary On The Visit Of President Enrique Peña Nieto Of Mexico, accessed January 5, 2015, http://www.whitehouse. gov/the-press-office/2014/12/12/statement-press-secretary-visit-president-enrique-pe-nieto-mexico.

[2] Eric Martin and Brendan Case, “Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto Faces Mounting Scandals,” Bloomberg Businessweek, accessed January 7, 2015, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-11/mexican-president-enrique-pe-a-nieto-faces-mounting-scandals.

[3] Salvador Reza, interview by author, January 5, 2015.

[4] Ángeles Mariscal and Isaín Mandujando, “Familiares y estudiantes de Ayotzinapa caminan con sociedad civil de Chiapas,” Chiapas Paralelo, accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.chiapasparalelo. com/noticias/chiapas/2014/11/familiares-y-estudiantes-de-ayotzinapa-caminan-con-chiapas/.

[5] Alice Driver, “Mexico: A country at the breaking point,” Al Jazeera, accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/11/mexico-country-at-breaking-poin-2014119819488 37496.html.

[6] Gabriela Coutiño, “Normalistas de Ayotzinapa se reunirán con el EZLN,” Chiapas Paralelo, accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.chiapasparalelo.com/noticias/chiapas/2014/11/normalistas-de-ayotzina pa-se-reuniran-con-el-ezln/.

[7] “More mass graves unearthed in search for missing Mexican students,” RT, accessed January 5, 2015, http://www.rt.com/news/208619-mexico-mass-graves-students/.

[8] Nacha Cattan, “21-Year-Old is First of 42 Mexico Students Confirmed Dead,” Bloomberg, accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-07/mexico-identifies-body-of-1-of-43-students-amid-protests.html.

[9] Anthony Harrup, “Mexican President’s Approval Ratings Slump,” The Wall Street Journal, accessed January 5, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-presidents-approval-ratings-slump-1417456289.

[10] Garrett M. Graff, “The Green Monster,” Politico (November/December 2014), accessed January 5, 2014, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/border-patrol-the-green-monster-112220_Pag e2.html#.VKxgfrv3tJZ.

[11] For more on the U.S. role in the Colombian “false positives” scandal see, “Report: The Rise and Fall of ‘False Positive’ Killings in Colombia: The Role of U.S. Military Assistance, 2000-2010,” Fellowship of Reconciliation (May 2014), accessed January 6, 2015, http://forusa.org/content/report-rise-fall-false-positive-killings-colombia-role-us-military-assistance-2000-2010. For more on the U.S. role in the Salvadoran Civil War human rights abuses see, Clifford Krauss, “How U.S. Actions Helped Hide Salvador Human Rights Abuses,” New York Times, accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com /1993/03/21/world/how-us-actions-helped-hide-salvador-human-rights-abuses.html.

[12] Jonathan Watts, “Venezuela to face US sanctions over violence against protestors,” The Guardian, accessed January 6, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/12/amid-violence-against-protesters-venezuela-to-face-us-sanctions.

[13] U.S. Department of State, “Merida Initiative,” accessed January 6, 2015, http://www.state. gov/j/inl/merida/.

[14] “Mexico: Peña Nieto gets Obama’s support,” LatinNews, accessed January 7, 2015, http://www.latin news.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=63317&uid=17952&acc=1&Itemid=6&cat_id=796875%20%20.

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Large-scale wave energy systems developed in the Pacific Northwest should be comparatively steady, dependable and able to be integrated into the overall energy grid at lower costs than some other forms of alternative energy, including wind power.

Those are the findings, published in the journal Renewable Energy, that confirm what scientists have expected – that wave energy will have fewer problems with variability than some energy sources and that by balancing wave energy production over a larger geographic area, the variability can be even further reduced.

The variability of alternative energy sources is one factor that holds back their wider use – if wind or solar energy decreases and varies widely, then some other energy production has to back it up, and that adds to the overall cost of energy supply.

“Whenever any new form of energy is added, a challenge is to integrate it into the system along with the other sources,” said Ted Brekken, an associate professor and renewable energy expert in the College of Engineering at Oregon State University.

“By producing wave energy from a range of different sites, possibly with different types of technology, and taking advantage of the comparative consistency of the wave resource itself, it appears that wave energy integration should be easier than that of wind energy,” he said. “The reserve, or backup generation, necessary for wave energy integration should be minimal.”

This estimate of the cost of integrating wind energy indicated that it would be 10 percent or less than the actual charges being made for the integration of wind energy. Energy integration, however, is just one component of the overall cost of the power generated. Wave energy, still in the infancy of its development, is not yet cost competitive on an overall basis.

Wave energy is not now being commercially produced in the Pacific Northwest, but experts say its future potential is significant, and costs should come down as technologies improve and more systems are developed. This study examined the hypothetical addition of 500 megawatts of generating capacity in this region by 2025, which would be comparable to approximately five large wind farms.

Another strength of wave energy, the study suggested, is that its short-term generation capacity can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy over a time scale ranging from minutes to hours, and with some accuracy even seasonally or annually.

The Pacific Northwest has some of the nation’s best wave energy resources, and as a result is home to the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Wave energy in the region is expected to spur economic growth, help diversify the energy portfolio, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce transmission losses, the study noted.

This study was a collaboration of researchers at OSU, the University of Victoria, and private industry.

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2015 will provide Singapore and Australia with good opportunities to further enhance their defence relationship towards the goal of a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’.

By Benjamin Schreer*

At the Eighth Meeting of the Singapore-Australia Joint Ministerial Committee (SAJMC) in Singapore in August 2014, both sides agreed to further strengthen defence cooperation as part of a new roadmap known as Project 2025 towards a comprehensive strategic partnership’.

In 2015, the prime ministers of the two countries are scheduled to sign a bilateral joint declaration to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Singapore and Australia. As well, the Australian government will release a new Defence White Paper (DWP), providing additional opportunities for enhancing bilateral defence ties.

Why strong defence ties with Singapore

Stability in Southeast Asia traditionally has been a core Australian strategic interest. As the region has become more competitive, particularly in regards to unresolved maritime disputes in the South China Sea, successive Australian governments have identified the need to building closer defence ties with a number of key Southeast Asian nations as a means to building trust, preventing conflict and maintaining a rules-based maritime order.

In this context, Singapore is becoming even more important as a security partner for Australia. In many ways, the bilateral defence ties are already Australia’s most advanced and substantial in Southeast Asia. For instance, while the Australian Defence Force’s (ADF) engagement activities with other regional nations focus mainly on capacity building of these countries’ security forces, the very high professional and technological standard of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) elevates the defence relationship to a category of its own.

Moreover, both sides have a mutual interest in maintaining the rules-based, regional maritime order and in strengthening regional capacity in regards to maritime security and Humanitarian and Disaster Relief (HADR). Accordingly, the ADF has deployed a permanent International Liaison Officer at Singapore’s Information Fusion Centre.

As well, activities within the Five Powers Defence Arrangements (FPDA), also comprising the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Malaysia, have gradually been expanded into the maritime domain.

Next steps

Arguably, the key to success in the Singapore-Australia defence relationship thus far has been its pragmatic focus on enhancing military-technological cooperation. Accordingly, the 2014 SAJMC Joint Communiqué identified a number of areas to strengthen practical defence cooperation.

Among them is the renewal of the Memoranda of Agreement between the two countries on the SAF use of the Shoalwater Bay Training Area and arrangements regarding the SAF’s flying training school at the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) Base Pearce. It can be expected that an agreement on extended access for the SAF will be reached.

Another area is to expand training and exercise activities. The ADF’s emerging amphibious capability, centred around two new 27,000 tonnes Canberra-class amphibious vessels, will provide new opportunities in this regard. Moreover, if Singapore, as is widely expected, decides to acquire the fifth-generation Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), joint training and exercises with the RAAF should be a logical step. After all, apart from Japan and South Korea, Singapore and Australia will be the only Asia-Pacific countries operating this sophisticated system.

Indeed, given that the US just selected Australia as one of the two regional hubs – besides Japan – for heavy maintenance of the JSF, it would make sense for Singapore and Australia to enter into preliminary discussions on a possible arrangement for servicing future Singaporean JSF in Australia.

As well, Australia’s next DWP could deliver additional possibilities for bilateral defence cooperation. Undoubtedly, Singapore will watch very closely if the DWP indeed provides a new framework for increasing the ADF’s peacetime engagement in Southeast Asia and whether it will be underpinned by adequate resourcing. But the DWP is likely to signal to key Southeast Asian countries an increased ambition of ADF regional defence engagement, particularly in the air and maritime domain.

Developing a ‘strategic vision’

Equally important, the 2015 DWP is tasked to overhaul Australia’s defence-industrial sector to, for instance, enhance multinational cooperation on defence technologies. In this context, both sides should consider enhancing Singapore-Australia cooperation in this sensitive area, for instance through closer interaction between Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) and Singapore’s Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA).

Finally, beyond practical cooperation Singapore and Australian officials should initiate a discussion about the long-term strategic vision for the defence relationship. Australia’s strong and Singapore’s more tacit support for the US strategic ‘rebalance’ to Asia signal a mutual understanding that the regional security order could become even more contested.

If so, the Singapore-Australia defence relationship will inevitably be influenced by the changing regional great power dynamics. Consequently, both sides need to develop a mutual understanding on the implications of these shifts and discuss ways of smaller but pivotal powers such as Singapore and Australia to organise adequate responses. For instance, what could be the role of the FPDA in a changing Southeast Asian security order?

Such informal discussions will be a critical component towards achieving the goal of a comprehensive Singapore-Australia strategic partnership.

* Benjamin Schreer is a Visiting Fellow with the Military Transformation Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is also a Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in Canberra.

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By Chandrani Sarma*

With the Sri Lankan presidential election set for 8 January 2015, pressure is building up against the incumbent, Mahinda Rajapaksa. In the 2010 presidential election, Rajapaksa, as the candidate of the ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), won re-election, in a landslide, in the backdrop of the Sri Lankan military’s conquest over the Tamil separatists. Rajapaksa called another presidential election, two years before schedule, hoping to further consolidate his position.2

With a divided opposition, this would probably have been a very easy win, had Maithripala Sirisena not resigned from the party to oppose him for the presidency. Sirisena was the general secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Rajapaksa’s party, and Minister of Health. This led to a domino effect, with several ruling party luminaries defecting from the government. In a historic and important turn, the opposition United Nationalist Party (UNP), along with several SLFP loyalists, as well as former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, chose Sirisena as the common candidate to run against Rajapaksa. More recently, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and the Buddhist nationalist party3 also quit the government to support the opposition. Sirisena is now backed by 40 political parties and groups.

It would be presumptuous to say that this may cost Rajapaksa his presidential post; however, UPFA felt the heat and boosted campaigning vigorously. Even the army was found to have used state money to post pro-Rajapaksa propaganda material to hundreds of thousands of soldiers and their families.4 Rajapaksa even roped in Bollywood stars like Salman Khan for his campaign; however resentment is apparent with several local artists, singers and others campaigning against the President.

Rajapaksa’s Reign

Rajapaksa’s core support-base is the rural, Buddhist and Sinhala constituency. During his current term, Sri Lanka has become the fastest-growing South Asian nation. His government had embarked on a number of infrastructure projects and built highways etc. Investment is also steadily rising given that the investment climate has improved after the defeat of the Tamil rebel group in May 2009. With exports rising, trade deficit has shrunk. Unemployment rate and inflation are low at 4% and 3.5% respectively.5

Though Rajapaksa is revered among the majority Sinhala population for the rapid building of post-war infrastructure, the Tamil minority still feels marginalised.6 Muslim minorities are reported to dislike the current government’s inaction in the face of a series of attacks on them by Buddhist hardliners since 2012. With the victory over the Tamil Tigers well into the past, Rajapaksa’s popularity is also fading. This has been mainly attributed to high cost of living, alleged abuse of power and nepotism. His family members occupy important government posts and are estimated to control half the country’s annual budget. It is rumoured that he is grooming his eldest son, Namal (a current MP), to succeed him. 7

The opposition’s main reason to unite is to “re-establish democracy” and the “rule of law” in the country. Even the judiciary is no longer seen as independent after Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake was impeached in January 2013 and replaced by former Attorney General Mohan Peiris. The various parties that defected from the government have cited “mis- governance issue”, “corruption”, “human rights violations”; and some even feel they did not receive due respect for years of loyalty to Rajapaksa.

What Lies Ahead

Has this resentment reached the threshold where it might topple the President? The answer depends on the political appeal of the alternative candidate.

First of all, till now the opposition has made no mention of minority rights. Also, the Buddhist nationalist party is known to dispute the death of thousands of Tamil civilians in the civil war. This makes it hard for the ethnic minorities to choose between the “known devil and the unknown angel”.8

Sirisena calls himself a farmer and speaks only Sinhalese; he expects to win over the Sinhala Buddhist majority that has voted for Rajapaksa so far and makes up 70% of the population. However, Rajapaksa is also trying to enhance his popularity by increasing gas and diesel subsidies, lowering electricity tariff and giving free seeds to farmers. The opposition’s main rallying cry is of ‘governance’; it hardly mentions economic reforms, while Sri Lanka’s 8% GDP growth rate is one of Rajapaksa’s strongest electoral assets. Sri Lanka’s economy has mainly been growing due to infrastructure development financed primarily by overseas borrowings. This is healthy in the short- to medium-term but the long term requires productivity-enhancing reforms9 which neither of the parties is focusing on.

The opposition says it would pursue a more balanced foreign policy and remove the over dependency on any one country (i.e. China). This may come as a relief to India but would hardly affect the common man’s decision, 70% of the population being rural-based.
Apart from the gaps in the opposition’s strategy, this election has been marred by escalating violence. The Campaign for Free and Fair Elections (CaFFE) says the violence is almost always targeted at the opposition. International observers told reporters recently that they have already received complaints that the military had set up 400 roadblocks to discourage minority Tamils from voting freely in the former war zones.10

Rallies of both opposition and the ruling party have drawn huge crowds. The whole world is closely watching the results as it would affect Sri Lanka’s bilateral relations. The Economist calls it the closest presidential contest in the history of Sri Lanka. International delegations from the Commonwealth and other regional forums are monitoring the election. The 2010 election saw the failure of a common opposition candidate to win against Rajapaksa. This time the opposition has united again to remove the “family dynasty”. Observers feel it is quite likely that Rajapaksa may win, though marginally, given also that the Supreme Court has dismissed all legal concerns over his third term. However, if the opposition wins, Sri Lanka’s economy and political stability would depend on the policies they adopt. These are unclear so far.

About the author:
*Ms Chandrani Sarma is Research Assistant at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore. She can be contacted at isaschsa@nus.edu.sg. Opinions expressed in this paper, based on research by the author, do not necessarily reflect the views of ISAS.

Source:
This article was published by ISAS as ISAS Brief No. 357 – 7 January 2015 (PDF).

Notes:
2. This is after Sri Lankan Parliament approved, in September 2010, constitutional amendment allowing presidents to seek an unlimited number of terms.
3.Also known as the Jathika Hela Urumaya or the National Heritage Party.
4. Charles Haviland, “Is Rajapaksa facing defeat in Sri Lanka?” BBC. Available at:www.bbc.com/news/world-asia- 30656219
5. Dushni Weerakoon, “The economics of Sri Lanka’s mid-term elections” East Asia Forum. Available at: www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/01/04/the-economics-of-sri-lankas-mid-term-elections/
6. Irfan Husain, “Threat of violence in Sri Lankan election” Dawn. Available at: www.dawn.com/news/1152327
7. “Profile: Mahinda Rajapaksa”, BBC. Available at: www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-24918281
8. Meera Srinivasan, “Vote for ‘known devil’, Rajapaksa urges Tamils”, The Hindu. Available at: www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/rajapaksa-to-tamils-known-devil-is-better-than-unknown- angel/article6748743.ece
9. Ibid. (4)
10. “Sri Lanka monitors fear voter intimidation before election”, Daily Mail. Available at:
www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-2896128/Sri-Lanka-monitors-fear-voter-intimidation-election.html

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