(Civil.Ge) — Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and leader of breakaway South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov will sign treaty on “alliance and integration” on March 18, according to the Kremlin.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry, which condemns this and Moscow’s similar treaty with another breakaway region of Abkhazia as part of “creeping annexation” of occupied territories, also slammed Russia for timing of the planned signing, coinciding with thirty first round of the Geneva international discussions – talks, which were launched after the August, 2008 war with the participation of negotiators from Georgia, Russia, the United States, as well as from Tskhinvali and Sokhumi, and co-chaired by representatives of the EU, UN and OSCE.

“During the talks heads of the states will discuss broad range of bilateral issues and coordination in providing stability and security in the Transcaucasus region,” the Kremlin said on March 13.

Signing will be held in Moscow, according to breakaway South Ossetian leader’s spokesperson.

According to reports in some Russian media sources, signing of the treaty was originally planned for March 11, but was postponed for unknown reasons. President Putin, who also postponed visit to Kazakhstan this week, has not been seen on live television since March 5, triggering rumors he was ill, which was denied by the Kremlin.

Georgian chief negotiator in the Geneva talks, deputy foreign minister Davit Dondua said in a statement on Friday that Moscow’s choice of date for signing of this so called treaty, coinciding with the next round of the Geneva international discussions, is a “deliberate insult” of these talks and co-chairs from the EU, UN and OSCE.

“Such behavior indicates once again that, regrettably, Russia not only puts itself beyond the international law, but also disrespects elementary diplomatic protocol,” the Georgian negotiator said.

He said that “such demonstrative action” by Russia should be “a reminder for our European colleagues and mediators in the peace process of how serious challenges Georgia is facing.”

“We call on the co-chairs of [the Geneva talks] to double their efforts in order for Russia to reciprocate Georgia’s non-use of force declaration,” he said.

“We also call our allies to immediately consider international security arrangements [in conflict regions], which will strengthen peace and stability in our region.”

“I want to stress that Georgia remains committed to the format and essence of the Geneva international discussions. We are ready to discuss solutions to the existing situation calmly, openly and constructively with all the other participants. We call on Russian participants to show similar professionalism and responsibility towards their own commitments,” the Georgian negotiator said.

Signing of the treaty with breakaway South Ossetia will come four months after Moscow signed treaty on “alliance and strategic partnership” with another breakaway region of Abkhazia. After revision of the initial draft of the treaty with Tskhinvali, the final text is now more similar to the one that was signed between Moscow and Sokhumi. It, however, contains clauses, which envisage deeper integration of the breakaway region with Russia than the one signed with breakaway Abkhazia.

According to the draft treaty “separate units of the armed forces and security agencies of the South Ossetian Republic will become part of the armed forces and security agencies of the Russian Federation.”

The draft also envisages “integration” of customs service of the breakaway region with the one of the Russian Federation.

Like in case of Abkhazia, treaty with Tskhinvali envisages setting up of Joint Information-Coordinating Center of law enforcement agencies for the purpose of “coordinating” fight against “organized crime and other grave crimes.”

Russia takes commitment to “co-finance” gradual increase of salaries of employees of the state-funded entities in breakaway South Ossetia to the level existing in Russia’s North Caucasus Federal District.

Russia also pledges to increase pensions for those residents of the breakaway region, which hold Russian passports, starting from 2016, according to the draft, which also envisages further easing of granting Russian citizenship to the residents of the breakaway region.

The post Putin To Sign ‘Integration Treaty’ With South Ossetia On March 18 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Kalinga Seneviratne*

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot reacted angrily to a United Nation Human Rights Council (UNHRC) report accusing Australia of violating the UN Convention against Torture, reproving it of bias and claiming that Australians are sick of being lectured to by the UN.

The UN’s special rapporteur on torture, Juan Mendez, from Argentina, who investigated allegations of torture in 68 countries, tabled his report on March 9 at the UNHRC annual gathering in Geneva, where a section on Australia said that the government was systematically violating the international Convention Against Torture by confining children in immigration detention, and holding asylum seekers in dangerous and violent conditions on remote South Pacific islands.

It comes only a month after Australia’s own Human Rights Commission’s damning ‘Forgotten Children report about refugee children held in detention.

“The government of Australia, by failing to provide adequate detention conditions; end the practice of detention of children; and put a stop to the escalating violence and tension at the regional processing centre, has violated the right of the asylum seekers including children to be freefrom torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment,” the report by Mendez said.

The 1987 United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment is one of the most widely supported conventions in the world. Some 157 countries are parties to it. Australia ratified the treaty in 1989, and is legally bound by it.

The UN Report cited two people on Australia’s off-shore asylum seeker detention centre in Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) Manus Island, referred to as Mr A and Mr B, who allege they were tied to chairs by security staff and threatened with “physical violence, rape, and prosecution for ‘becoming aggressive’” if they refused to retract statements they had made to police about the murder of Iranian asylum-seeker Reza Barati during detention centre riots in February 2014.

The Mendez report found those men’s rights were breached. The Argentinian also found that two recent government amendments to immigration regulations, both risk violating international law prohibiting torture.

“The Migration and Maritime Powers Legislation Amendment … violates the Convention Against Torture because it allows for the arbitrary detention and refugee determination at sea, without access to lawyers. The Migration Amendment (Character and General Visa Cancellation Bill) violates the CAT because it tightens control on the issuance of visas on the basis of character and risk assessments,” the report said further.

Australia established off-shore refugee processing centres in Nauru and PNG almost a decade ago in response to boat loads of people arriving on Australian shores seeking asylum.

In September 2014, Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Cambodia to resettle asylum seekers that turn up on boats on Australian waters. No other country in the developed world has signed an agreement with a developing nation for the resettlement of refugees. The deal has been widely criticised by refugee law scholars. Since 2014, the Australian navy has also been pushing back refugee-boats intercepted in the high seas into Indonesian waters.

Responding to the UN report during a visit to Western Australia (where waves of ‘boat people’ arrived between 2008 to 2011), Abbott told a news conference, “I really think Australians are sick of being lectured to by the United Nations, particularly given that we have stopped the boats, and by stopping the boats, we have ended the deaths at sea.”

“The most humanitarian, the most decent, the most compassionate thing you can do is (to) stop these boats because hundreds, we think about 1,200 in fact, drowned at sea during the flourishing of the people smuggling trade under the former government,” he pointed out.

Trying to kill the messenger

But, human rights activists here argue that Abbot is trying to kill the messenger rather than listen to the UN advise to improve Australia’s human rights record in respect to its refugee policy. Since coming to power in September 2013, the Abbot government has introduced tough immigration laws making it virtually impossible for people coming by boat to successfully apply for asylum and residency in Australia.

The government maintains that human smuggling syndicates bring these people to Australia’s shores and that the asylum seekers are “economic refugees” who are trying to break the immigration queue to Australia by paying thousands of dollars to human smugglers. Human Rights advocates have disagreed with the government.

Australia’s own Human Rights Commissioner Professor Gillian Triggs in the report released in February focused on the appalling effects of the mistreatment of children in immigration detention. Australia currently holds about 800 children in mandatory closed immigration detention for indefinite periods, with no pathway to protection or settlement. This includes 186 children detained on the remote South Pacific island of Nauru.

“Australia is unique in its treatment of asylum seeker children. No other country mandates the closed and indefinite detention of children when they arrive on our shores. No satisfactory rationale for the prolonged detention of children seeking asylum in Australia has been offered,” Prof Triggs’s report noted.

The Abbott’s government launched a full-scale attack on Prof Triggs without casting doubt on any of the facts she reported and has threatened to cut the Commission’s funding by 30 percent.

The director of legal advocacy with the Sydney-based Human Rights Law Centre, Daniel Webb, argues that the UN report confirmed that Australia’s offshore processing policy was failing to meet basic human rights standards.

“The Government always assures the Australian people that it complies with its international human rights obligations. But here we have the United Nations once again, in very clear terms, telling the Government that Australia’s asylum seeker policies are in breach of international law,” he noted.

“Under international law, Australia can’t lock people up incommunicado on a boat somewhere in the middle of the ocean. Nor can we return people to a place where they face the risk of being tortured. Yet these are precisely the powers the government has sought to give itself through recent amendments to its maritime law,” says Webb. “It’s incredibly short-sighted for the government to start thumbing its nose at the UN system just because it doesn’t like what it’s being told.”

In response to criticism from Abbot, Mendez said in a statement given to the Australian media, “it is my duty to tell Australia that, at least in that respect and in respect of keeping children in detention, that policy needs to be corrected”.

The finding of the UNHRC report has been based on four reports by human rights lobby groups including the Human Rights Law Centre. Thus Abbot has questioned the report’s credibility. “(The UN) went to the usual suspects, the human rights activists, accepted everything that they said as gospel truth and now we have got what is supposed to be a reputable body criticizing the Australian government for doing the right thing,” he noted.

In an editorial on March 12, Australia’s national daily ‘The Australian’ agreed with Abbot’s criticism of the UNHRC and called on the UN to focus on people-smuggling lessons from Australia. The editorial argues that the UN needs to reflect on the “many moral, legal and political questions” in order to understand Australia’s refugee policy.

The Abbot government’s tough anti-human smuggling refugee policy is widely supported by the Australian population. In a letter published in the same newspaper, reader Graeme Osborne argues that the UN should point the fingers at the human smugglers and not his government.

“Those who put hundreds of people in a confined area, where overcrowding was part of the course, where food and water was likely limited, where levels of hygiene fell, where privacy was non-existent, where outcome of the peoples’ travails was largely unknown” should be the real human rights issue the UN should put their resources into focusing, he argues, adding that the UN should work with their countries of origin and help governments to “destroy the livelihood of those criminal elements that take advantage of the displaced and disenfranchised”.

*Dr Kalinga Seneviratne is IDN Special Correspondent for Asia-Pacific. He teaches international communications in Singapore.

The post Australian PM Blasts ‘Bias’ In UN Report On Torture – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Scott N. Romaniuk and Marinko Bobić

Alliance-formation among terrorist groups is not an unusual practice and cooperation between two or more terrorist groups can be formed as a result of practical and ideological needs and interests. Even if groups are often geographically distant and engaged in either unrelated or different types of conflict, terrorist groups identify “operational effectiveness,” tactical and strategic range, “efficiency,” and even “enhanced legitimacy and stature” as the primary reasons for allying with one another.

African Islamist movements have generally faced internal volatility and disorder, with northern Mali being the typical example of a loosely formed alliance that quickly falls apart. Such an outcome can be possibly be avoided by affiliating oneself with a powerful ideological partner such as ISIS, thus helping bind members to the cause.

Terrorist groups, though able to see positive aspects of working together, do not always foresee the challenges brought forward through partnering. Tricia Bacon, author of Strange Bedfellows of Brothers-in-Arms: Why Terrorist Groups Ally, explains that, “[t]he prevailing notion that terrorist groups with shared enemies or ideologies will naturally gravitate toward one another mischaracterizes the nature of relationships among these illicit, clandestine, and violent organizations.”

Grievances, rather than common political visions, can also bind terrorist groups together. In the case of ISIS, as long as the group maintains a very decentralized role, it will be an attractive ideological choice for many differing Islamist groups. The timing of terrorist partnering, the duration of alliances, and the degrees of cooperation between them are all difficult variables to predict and explain. Despite pledges of allegiance made by leaders of terrorist groups, there persists a need to consider a wide spectrum of factors and conditions in order to diagnose the authenticity, robustness, and probability of success in terms of alliances between terrorist groups.

The Sinai-based Egyptian extremist group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis’ (ABM) pledge of allegiance to ISIS in late 2014 triggered precisely these questions (others have come from groups active in Libya, Algeria, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, and militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan have declared their intention to form provinces of ISIS). Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad’s (otherwise known simply as Boko Haram) audio pledge (posted on the group’s Twitter account by [what appeared to be] the group’s leader) raises these questions once again.

Veryan Khan, editorial direction of the US-based Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC), recently claimed that, “Boko Haram is not a mere copycat of ISIS; rather, it is incorporating itself into the Islamic State.” The statement comes at a critical point in determining the alignment of the Boko Haram in formal terms, yet the group has shown many signs of adherence to ISIS previously through symbolism such as flags and other signs within its media presentations. And in turn, supporters of ISIS began referring to Boko Haram as “Islamic State Africa.”

Like ISIS, Boko Haram has demonstrated a strategy that seeks the creation of a caliphate like the one ISIS claims to have established. Boko Haram’s media techniques and operational brutality strongly resemble those of ISIS. But does this make the claim of allegiance significant? And if so, how sustainable is partnership?

ISIS’ original declaration of “the caliphate” contested the independent authority of emirates, states, and other groups and organizations. Thus a notable friction point should be considered regarding the potential formation of Boko Haram’s own caliphate in Africa. The outcome of two caliphates forming or the implications of Boko Haram recognizing or not recognizing the one already formed by ISIS will constitute a critical juncture in their relationship.

Boko Haram has attracted many fighters to its cause, but it has also alienated much of the general population from which vigilantes fighting against the group have emerged. It has also alienated many within the rank and file, leading to breakaway factions. In 2012, speculation arose over the formation of the new militant outfit from Boko Haram calling itself “Ansaru.” That group formed and operates today as Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina fi Biladis Sudan (JAMBS – Ansaru) (“Vanguard for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa”). Ideological differences and conflict resulting from differing interpretations of Islamic law promulgated the split with Boko Haram.

Ansaru seeks the re-establishment of a Muslim state similar to the historical Sokoto Caliphate founded by Usman dan Fodio in the 19th century. Ansaru has openly stated its intent to target Western nationals and interests within their areas of operation, who are believed to be either directly or indirectly supporting military operations against regional and/or international Islamist militant groups. As new groups emerge, competition rises over foreign fighters – something that Boko Haram has not been terribly successful when compared to ISIS. One should not rule-out the possibility that Boko Haram’s pledge to ISIS is entrenched in pragmatic needs like training and other forms of indirect assistance.

ISIS has reduced its operational capacity by expanding its enemy-base in the Middle East. As countering immediate opponents has taken precedence, it has found itself unable to offer considerable support to groups attaching themselves to ISIS. This logic can be extended to Boko Haram. Turf wars and territorial claims are also likely to become increasing divisive mechanisms among BH, ISIS, and others. The case of the Yemeni-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) lends sympathy to this line of argumentation. As Professor Mark N. Katz notes: “[AQAP] criticized ISIS in November 2014 when the latter claimed Yemen as part of the caliphate that ISIS aspires to rule.”

Establishing precisely how ISIS views Boko Haram is a difficult task, and one level of “acceptance” within the organization does not mean the same exists at the lower levels. It might be apt to assume that a large number of fighters in ISIS by default have an inimical outlook on Boko Haram. “A US intelligence officer” according to Breitbart, “told NBC News the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) will not likely team up with Nigerian radical Islamic group Boko Haram in any official capacity due to the group’s racism against black Africans.”

African-Americans have the potential of presenting themselves as somewhat of a resource for ISIS. Events that took place in the US town of Ferguson in 2014 captured the attention of ISIS leaders who see the conflict as a potential propaganda and recruiting tool. Souad Mekhenet points out that various social media platforms started carrying the hashtags “#FergusonUnderIS” and “ISISHERO.” “The Islamic State and other jihadist movements,” according to Mekhenet, “are using events outside St. Louis as propaganda against the West. One argument they’ve been making for years is that racism and discrimination are rampant in some parts of the West, and they’re hoping the Ferguson riots could help recruit black Americans.”

Looking to the West for disillusioned, particularly young African-Americans, who are willing to subscribe to extremist ideologies overseas, undermines Boko Haram by attempting to recruit from sources from which its own operations would also benefit. In 2014, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekaau also noted the so-called ‘opportunities’ presented by frustrated American males overseas. These Islamist groups are all vying and bidding for the same support, which inevitably breeds friction between them.

The acceptance of pledges – which has the potential to alter the self-perception of ISIS, compelling the group to view itself as the “core” of a terrorist coalition defined by a shared ideology – is also problematic. Ideological foundation is sought in order to better overcome internal frictions. Such frictions rarely survive a serious face-off with an opponent, since most fighters join such organizations in order to find alternative financial resources, including through narcotics, people trafficking, kidnapping, and theft.

Implications could also be found in the relationships between dominant Western nations (particularly the United States [US], the United Kingdom [UK], and France) and Nigeria, in particular after Roman Catholic Archbishop Jos criticized the West for ignoring the sub-Saharan conflict, including Nigeria’s ongoing battle with Boko Haram. The exchange, which also included US counter-criticism against the Nigerian government for its response to the terrorist group, led to the Pentagon’s principle director for African affairs, Alice Friend, to assert that, “[i]n general Nigeria has failed to mount an effective campaign against Boko Haram.”

Expectations could emerge that the West increase its activities in sub-Saharan Africa in response to the recent pledge of allegiance by Boko Haram. If this happens, two potential recoils could take place. On one hand, the West, in response to both calls by Nigeria to become involved and pressure due to the supposed partnering between Boko Haram and ISIS, could move beyond soft-involvement such as training and advisory programs. Such a response could legitimize both the group and its pledge. On the other hand, inaction (or at least restrained commitment/involvement) might inadvertently validate the claim that the West sees sub-Saharan conflict as of secondary importance.

With increasing ties between Boko Haram and other terrorist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda (AQ) (via indirect assistance), questions will surely mount regarding the willingness and capacity of Western (i.e., US, European Union [EU], United Nations [UN], and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO]) security structures to deal with this growing terrorist threat.

In October, 2014, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, working with the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq, publicized a report stating that ISIS has killed roughly 8,493 civilians, began recruiting 12- and 13-year-old soldiers, implemented a “convert or die program,” and engaged in sex-slave operations involving girls and women. Perhaps the most practical concern to stem from the recent pledge by Boko Haram relates to the possible extent to which the group, as well as others like it operating elsewhere, will attempt to mimic the policies of an expanding ISIS to the north.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

The post Terror Without Borders: Boko Haram’s Pledge To ISIS – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Musa al-Gharbi

A year ago SISMEC pointed out that, although most of the victims of U.S. drone strikes have ostensibly been “militants,” the White House definition of “militant” is extremely vague (generally, any fighting-aged male). Moreover, the purpose of the program isn’t to target any and all possible combatants, but instead to eliminate high-value targets from international terror organizations who pose a substantial threat to the U.S. homeland. So the best measure of the “hit-rate” of the drone program wouldn’t be to compare the number of civilian casualties v. militants, but instead to ask how many of the total dead were the sort of high-value enemies the program is supposed to be targeting. If we approach the question from this angle, the hit-rate of the drone campaign is abysmal, despite the fact that most of its victims have been “militants.”

The post CIA Drone Campaign Demonstrates Need For Greater Intelligence Oversight, Accountability – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Harun Yahya*

Once terror descends on the cities of a country, it alters the way people go about their daily lives. Suicide attacks in public places become a routine thing. A mother sending her son off to military service is literally sending him off to possible death. The entire civic life takes on a whole new form with the imposition of curfews and other similar actions.

Terror is cowardly; it strikes from behind and targets easy victims. All forms of terror are evil. But communist terror is even worse, as it seeks to impose a North Korean system on the world and knows only the language of violence.

Turkey is a country that has been facing communist terror for 35 years. Southeast Turkey is the worst-affected regions of the country but very often this disease spills over to other parts of the country as well.

As a result, 35,576 of our citizens have been martyred, 386,360 have been forced to leave their homes and $350 billion has been spent. The executions that have taken within the PKK, the main player in the terror, far exceed these figures.

The decision in recent weeks to hold a congress in April concerning the calls by Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK’s imprisoned leader, for the organization to lay down its arms, have greatly excited various circles in Turkey and abroad. The European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have been generous in their praise.

The fact is however, that in the same way that Stalin, who advocated the need for anti-religious propaganda against all faiths, signed an accord with the Churches, allowing new churches to be built, or that Lenin, who was so critical of the capitalist system implemented it as an economic policy for a time, the PKK’s talk of laying down its arms is no more than a communist tactic. Communists have no qualms when it comes to applying various tactics as part of Lenin’s theory of “one step forward, two steps back” when it comes to spreading their own ideology.

The PKK is a Leninist-Stalinist terror organization that seeks to build a communist state by breaking Turkey up into pieces. Since the 1990s it has been wearing an imperialist mask in order to curry favor with the West, and while it may have changed its tactics, it has never abandoned its communist identity. During this time, it has decided to enact cease-fires seven times. These decisions to disarm that have been taken on various grounds since 1993 have always ended with new offensives by the PKK. The “PKK laying down its arms,” described as the essential precondition within the peace process that began in 2009, has never happened.

We also need to consider some admissions on the subject; Cemil Bayık, one of the leaders of the PKK, says: “There are no conditions under which we will lay down our arms. Laying down our arms means surrendering. It means death.”

Duran Kalkan, a member of the organization’s executive council, says; “We do not consider the call for the guerrilla force to lay down its arms meaningful or serious. We do not wish even to discuss it. Guerrillas do not lay down their arms.”

Another leading member, Zebat Andok, says; “We are engaged in an armed struggle against the Republic of Turkey. There is no question of us laying down our arms.” Sabri Ok, another member of the leadership, says that as a Leninist organization they are waging a war against colonialism and admits that this is only possible through force of arms; “We are an organization that knows full well how it took up arms against colonialism… It is impossible for us to lay down our arms while the reasons for our doing so still apply.”

People need to be well aware of all this. The PKK has got where it has today through force of arms. It has established control over the Southeast of Turkey and pressurizes the local inhabitants. It has done that through violence. The presence in the Turkish Parliament of a party that enjoys full PKK backing has only been possible through force of arms. The success in the Southeast of that PKK-backed party in the local elections is the result of force of arms, not democracy. The people there have been forced to vote. Even the fact that the current Turkish government is talking to the PKK and even negotiating with a murderer such as Ocalan is the result of force of arms. Hard as it is to admit, that is the truth.

Of course, the Turkish Army has always defeated the PKK, but it has always used its weaponry as a useful card.

A communist organization knows that if it lays down its arms it will have no means of prosecuting its struggle. A communist organization also knows that it is impossible to establish ideological domination over such a religious nation as Turkey; arms are therefore the only means of imposing that ideology.

The PKK is trying to establish a covert autonomy through the directives known as the “ten articles” under the guise of laying down its arms. It wishes to do this through the strengthening of local administrations and redefining the concept of “state.” It expects the Republic of Turkey to learn the true definition of a state from a terror organization. The reference to the strengthening of local administrations may sound very innocent to the ears of the EU and will look like a tactic worth supporting. The EU will probably only understand the disaster that will come from allowing a communist structure on Turkish territory when it is far too late.

For these reasons, certain circles in Turkey, Europe and the US must not fall into an error that will have the most terrible consequences. It is no secret that the PKK has been armed by the US on the pretexts such as the attack on Kobane. If the US and Europe fail to see that the talk of disarmament in Turkey is no more than a ruse and that the ground is being prepared for a communist uprising under a mask of “ethnic identity,” then they will be supporting a picture of savagery that will harm the whole world.

* The writer has authored more than 300 books translated into 73 languages on politics, religion and science. He tweets @harun_yahya.

The post Is PKK’s Terror Really Ending In Turkey? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A child seen executing an Arab Israeli in one of ISIS’s recent videos has reportedly been recognized by his classmates from a school he attended in Toulouse, France. The boy could be as young as 12 years old.

The local schools inspector has cautioned against jumping to conclusions yet, however.

“Concerning the formal identification of this person, I cannot tell you anything. Children from the Vauquelin College have recognized one of their classmates, but we must remain cautious,” Jacques Caillaut told journalists.

Students allegedly saw the footage on Wednesday and were shocked, with some of them in tears. Counseling for them has been put in place at school, AFP reported.

The kids would have known the boy executioner when he was in primary school, but he supposedly “hasn’t been enrolled at the Vergers [primary] school since last March,” school inspector also said.

Posted on March 10, the video shows a 19-year-old young man, who introduced himself as Mohammed Said Ismail Musallam kneeling in front of a boy. Wearing an orange jumpsuit, typically used by IS jihadists for executions, Musallam tells how he had been recruited by Israeli intelligence.

Next to the boy there is also a man, heard threatening Jews in France. According to French media outlet La Depeche, the man was speaking French with a Toulouse accent.

Then, the boy shoots the prisoner in the forehead using a pistol, shouts “Allahu Akbar” and fires four more times at the man who lies on the ground.

The man next to the boy has been unofficially recognized as Sabri Essid – a close connection to French jihadist gunman Mohamed Merah, who assassinated seven people, including three school children, in southern France in 2012.

The boy is believed to be Essid’s stepson who stands next to him: Essid is known to have traveled to Syria last year with the family, including his wife and her 12-year-old son from a previous marriage.

French authorities have launched a formal investigation into the video.

It’s not the first time that news of child IS fighters has appeared. Earlier this year, IS published a video that showed a young boy shooting in the back of the head two men reportedly accused of being Russian spies.

The post Child Executioner In ISIS Video ‘Recognized By Classmates’ In France appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“There are no nations…. no peoples…. no Russians.. no Arabs…no third worlds…no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multi-variate, multi-national dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today.”

– Arthur Jensen’s speech from Network, a 1976 American satirical film written by Paddy Chayefsky and directed by Sidney Lumet

The crisis that began seven years ago with easy lending and subprime mortgages, has entered its final phase, a currency war between the world’s leading economies each employing the same accommodative monetary policies that have intensified market volatility, increased deflationary pressures, and set the stage for another tumultuous crack-up. The rising dollar, which has soared to a twelve year high against the euro, has sent US stock indices plunging as investors expect leaner corporate earnings, tighter credit, and weaker exports in the year ahead. The stronger buck is also wreaking havoc on emerging markets that are on the hook for $5.7 trillion in dollar-backed liabilities. While most of this debt is held by the private sector in the form of corporate bonds, the stronger dollar means that debt servicing will increase, defaults will spike, and capital flight will accelerate. Author’s Michele Brand and Remy Herrera summed it up in a recent article on Counterpunch titled “Dollar Imperialism, 2015 edition”. Here’s an excerpt from the article:

“There is the risk for a sell-off in emerging market bonds, leading to conditions like in 1997. The multitrillion dollar carry trade may be on the verge of unwinding, meaning capital fleeing the periphery and rushing back to the US. Vast amounts of capital are already leaving some of these countries, and the secondary market for emerging bonds is beginning to dry up. A rise in US interest rates would only put oil on the fire.

The World Bank warned in January against a “disorderly unwinding of financial vulnerabilities.” According to the Financial Times on February 6, there is a “swelling torrent of ‘hot money’ cascad[ing] out of China.” Guan Tao, a senior Chinese official, said that $20 billion left China in December alone and that China’s financial condition “looks more and more like the Asian financial crisis” of the 1990s, and that we can “sense the atmosphere of the Asian financial crisis is getting closer and closer to us.” The anticipated rise of US interest rates this year, even by a quarter point as the Fed is hinting at, would exacerbate this trend and hit the BRICS and other developing countries with an even more violent blow, making their debt servicing even more expensive.” (Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition” Michele Brand and Remy Herrera, CounterPunch)

The soaring dollar has already put the dominoes in motion as capital flees the perimeter to return to risk-free assets in the US. At present, rates on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are still just slightly above 2 percent, but that will change when US investment banks and other institutional speculators– who loaded up on EU government debt before the ECB announced the launching of QE–move their money back into US government bonds. That flush of recycled cash will pound long-term yields into the ground like a tent-peg. At the same time, the Fed will continue to “jawbone” a rate increase to lure more capital to US stock markets and to inflict maximum damage on the emerging markets. The Fed’s foreign wealth-stripping strategy is the financial equivalent of a US military intervention, the only difference is that the buildings are left standing. Here’s an except from a Tuesday piece by CNBC:

“Emerging market currencies were hit hard on Tuesday, while the euro fell to a 12-year low versus the U.S. dollar, on rising expectations for a U.S. interest rate rise this year. The South African rand fell as much as 1.5 percent to a 13-year low at around 12.2700 per dollar, while the Turkish lira traded within sight of last Friday’s record low. The Brazilian real fell over one percent to its lowest level in over a decade. It was last trading at about 3.1547 to the dollar…

The volatility in currency markets comes almost two years after talk of unwinding U.S. monetary stimulus sent global markets reeling, with some emerging market currencies bearing the brunt of the sell-off…

Emerging market (EM) currencies are off across the board, as markets focus back on those stronger U.S. numbers from last week, prospects for early Fed tightening, and underlying problems in EM,” Timothy Ash, head of EM (ex-Africa) research at Standard Bank, wrote in a note.

“In this environment countries don’t need to give investors any excuse to sell – especially still higher rolling credits like Turkey.” (Currency turmoil as US rate-hike jitters bite, CNBC)

Once again, the Fed’s easy money policies have touched off a financial cyclone that has reversed capital flows and put foreign markets in a downward death spiral. (The crash in the EMs is likely to be the financial calamity of the year.) If Fed chairman Janet Yellen raises rates in June, as many expect, the big money will flee the EMs leaving behind a trail of bankrupt industries, soaring inflation and decimated economies. The blowback from the catastrophe is bound to push global GDP into negative territory which will intensify the currency war as nation’s aggressively compete for a larger share of dwindling demand.

The crisis in the emerging markets is entirely the doing of the Federal Reserve whose gigantic liquidity injections have paved the way for another global recession followed by widespread rejection of the US unit in the form of “de-dollarization.” Three stock market crashes and global financial meltdown in the length of decade and a half has already convinced leaders in Russia, China, India, Brazil, Venezuela, Iran and elsewhere, that financial stability cannot be achieved under the present regime. The unilateral and oftentimes nonsensical policies of the Fed have merely exacerbated inequities, disrupted normal business activity, and curtailed growth. The only way to reduce the frequency of destabilizing crises is to jettison the dollar altogether and create a parallel reserve currency pegged to a basket of yuans, dollars, yen, rubles, sterling, euros and gold. Otherwise, the excruciating boom and bust cycle will persist at five to ten year intervals. Here’s more on the chaotic situation in the Emerging Markets:

“The stronger the US boom, the worse it will be for those countries on the wrong side of the dollar. […] The US Federal Reserve has pulled the trigger. Emerging markets must now brace for their ordeal by fire. They have collectively borrowed $5.7 trillion, a currency they cannot print and do not control. This hard-currency debt has tripled in a decade, split between $3.1 trillion in bank loans and $2.6 trillion in bonds. It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries. Much of the debt was taken out at real interest rates of 1pc on the implicit assumption that the Fed would continue to flood the world with liquidity for years to come. The borrowers are ‘short dollars’, in trading parlance. They now face the margin call from Hell…. Stephen Jen, from SLJ Macro Partners said that ‘Emerging market currencies could melt down. There have been way too many cumulative capital flows into these markets in the past decade. Nothing they can do will stop potential outflows, as long as the US economy recovers. Will this trend lead to a 1997-1998-like crisis? I am starting to think that this is extremely probable for 2015.’” (Fed calls time on $5.7 trillion of emerging market dollar debt, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, Telegraph)

As the lone steward of the reserve currency, the Fed can boost global liquidity with a flip of the switch, thus, drowning foreign markets in cheap money that inevitably leads to recession, crises, and political unrest. The Fed was warned by Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, that its loosy goosy-monetary policies, particularly QE, would have a ruinous effect on emerging markets. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke chose to shrug off Stiglitz’s advice and support a policy that has widened inequality to levels not seen since the Gilded Age while having no noticeable impact on employment , productivity or growth. For all practical purposes, QE has been a total flop.

On Thursday, stocks traded higher following a bleak retail sales report that showed unexpected weakness in consumer spending. The news pushed the dollar lower which triggered a 259 point rise on the Dow Jones. The “bad news is good news” reaction of investors confirms that today’s market is not driven by fundamentals or the health of the economy, but by the expectation of tighter or looser monetary policy. ZIRP (Zero interest rate policy) and the Yellen Put (the belief that the Fed will intervene if stocks dip too far.) have produced the longest sustained stock market rally in the post war era. Shockingly, the Fed has not raised rates in a full nine years due in large part to the atmosphere of crisis the Fed has perpetuated to justify the continuation of wealth-stripping policies which only benefit the Wall Street banks and the nation’s top earners, the notorious 1 percent.

The markets are bound to follow this convoluted pattern for the foreseeable future, dropping sharply on news of dollar strength and rebounding on dollar weakness. Bottom line: Seven years and $11 trillion in central bank bond purchases has increased financial instability to the point that any attempt to normalize rates threatens to vaporize emerging markets, send stocks crashing, and intensify deflationary pressures.

If that isn’t an argument for “ending the Fed”, then I don’t know what is.

The post Why A Stronger Dollar Will Lead To Deflation, Recession And Crisis – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr Tajamul Islam*

Gastric cancer, also called stomach cancer tends to develop slowly over many years. Before a true cancer develops, pre-cancerous changes often occur in the inner lining (mucosa) of the stomach. These early changes rarely cause symptoms and therefore often go undetected. Cancers starting in different sections of the stomach may cause different symptoms and tend to have different outcomes.

The cancer’s location can also affect the treatment options. For example, cancers that start at the gastro-esophageal (GE) junction are staged and treated the same as cancers of the esophagus. A cancer that starts in the cardia (first portion of stomach) of the stomach, but then grows into the GE junction is also staged and treated like a cancer of the esophagus.

Stomach cancers can spread (metastasize) in different ways. They can grow through the wall of the stomach and invade nearby organs. They can also spread to the lymph vessels and nearby lymph nodes. As the stomach cancer becomes more advanced, it can travel through the bloodstream and spread to organs such as the liver, lungs, and bones.

Gastric cancer is a common malignancy confronted in medical practice, according to the recent estimates it is the second most frequent cancer in the world (after lung cancer), with about 800,000 new cases diagnosed every year. At the same time, the absolute number of cases per year is steadily increasing at an alarming rate. Very pertinently, 60% of all cases occur in developing countries. Fatality rates are very high, with an overall mortality rate of 70-90% in most countries. Gastric cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer death in the world with an average of 625,000 deaths per year. The incidence, however, varies widely from 78 per 100,000 in Japan to

India, overall, is deemed to be a low incidence (Noon chai) and tobacco smoking by hukkah, pickles, dried/smoked fish, sun-dried vegetables as well as Helicobacter pylori infection, are often mentioned in the context of risk factors.

Etiology

Diet: The incidence of stomach cancer in many countries has fallen a great deal since the 1970s and this is probably partly due to better diet.

The Incidence of gastric cancer varies from country to country around the world and this may be explained to some extent by differences in diet. A diet high in very salty foods increases the risk of stomach cancer. Stomach cancer levels are very high in Japan where very salty pickled foods are popular. But these foods are not typically eaten in the UK where stomach cancer rates are lower than in Japan.

A diet high in certain preserved foods may also increase your risk. Several studies and a large ongoing research study called EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) have found a small increase in the risk of stomach cancer in people who eat a lot of preserved meat. Preserved meat includes bacon, sausages and ham. These meats contain chemicals called nitrosamines, which have been linked to stomach cancer. Eating a lot of pickled foods may also increase the risk.

A recent study showed that vegetarians may have a lower risk of stomach cancer than meat eaters. A diet high in fresh fruit and vegetables seems to reduce the risk of stomach cancer. This may be because these foods contain high levels of antioxidant vitamins. Vitamin C in particular, together with other substances in these fresh foods, may help to prevent damage to the stomach lining that can lead to cancer.

Helicobacter pylori infection: Helicobacter pylori is a bacterial infection that has been investigated a lot in the past few years. Infection with this type of bacteria increases the risk of stomach cancer in the lower part of the stomach by around 6 times. Infection with a particular type of HP called cagA positive Helicobacter pylori may increase the risk even more.

Millions of people are infected with these bacteria and most of those do not get stomach cancer, so other factors must also be at work. Diet and smoking may interact with HP to cause stomach cancer.

The bacteria can cause an inflammatory condition called severe chronic atrophic gastritis (SCAG) and this can lead to stomach cancer. People with SCAG have an increased risk of stomach cancer in both the upper and lower parts of the stomach. Helicobacter infection can be shown on a blood test or a breath test. It can usually be cured fairly easily with a course of antibiotic treatment. But we’re not really sure yet how much benefit we get from getting rid of it. HP may protect against a particular type of cancer of food pipe (esophagus) called adenocarcinoma of the esophagus.

Smoking: Cigarette, as well as hukkah smoke, contains many cancer causing chemicals. When you breathe in cigarette smoke, you will always swallow some of it without meaning to. In that way, smoking can increase the risk of stomach cancer. About 1 in 5 stomach cancers (20%) in the UK is thought to be caused by smoking. People who smoke have around twice the risk of stomach cancer compared to non smokers. The risk falls if you stop smoking. If smokers have Helicobacter pylori infection, they may have more than 10 times the risk of non smokers without Helicobacter pylori infection.

Treatment

Chemotherapy drugs and combinations

Some studies are testing new ways to combine drugs already known to be active against stomach cancer or other cancers.

Newer chemotherapy (chemo) drugs are also being studied. For example, S-1 is an oral chemo drug related to 5-FU. This drug is commonly used for stomach cancer in some other parts of the world. Other studies are testing the best ways to combine chemo with radiation therapy, targeted therapies, or immunotherapy. A good deal of effort is being directed at improving the results of surgery by adding chemo and/or radiation therapy either before or after surgery. Several clinical trials of this approach are in progress. New ways of giving chemo are also being studied. For example, some doctors are looking at infusing chemo directly into the abdomen (intra-peritoneal chemotherapy) to see if it might work better with fewer side effects.

Targeted therapies

Chemo drugs target cells that divide rapidly, which is why they work against cancer cells. But there are other aspects of cancer cells that make them different from normal cells. In recent years, researchers have developed new targeted drugs to try to exploit these differences. Targeted drugs sometimes work when standard chemo drugs don’t. They also tend to have less severe side effects than chemo drugs.

Drugs that block HER2: Some stomach cancers have too much of the HER2 protein on the surface of their cells, which helps them grow. Drugs that target this protein might help treat these cancers. Trastuzumab (Herceptin) is already approved for use against advanced stomach cancer. Other drugs that target HER2, such as lapatinib (Tykerb®), pertuzumab (Perjeta®), and trastuzumab emtansine (Kadcyla®) are now being studied in clinical trials.

Drugs that block EGFR: EGFR is another protein found on some stomach cancer cells that helps them grow. Panitumumab (Vectibix®) is a drug that targets EGFR that is being tested against stomach cancer. This drug is already FDA-approved to treat some other cancers.

Other targeted drugs: Other drugs target different parts of cancer cells. Other targeted drugs that are being studied against stomach cancer include sorafinib (Nexavar®) and apatinib, among others. Most of the research in this area is looking at combining targeted agents with chemotherapy or with each other.

Despite the fact that the incidence of gastric cancer is decreasing, oncologists and gastrointestinal surgeons are still confronted by patients experiencing advanced disease, who are not amenable to cure. Significant advances have been made over the last 10 years, with the development of a more active chemotherapy regimen or modification of treatments to incorporate oral drugs and to reduce toxicity. However, although regimens that are more active than older combinations represent a significant progress in the care of advanced disease, they also suffer from a greater toxicity. Hence, oncologists have to deal with several treatment options and have to discuss the pros and cons of novel combinations in the light of expected toxicity at the scale of individual patients.

*Dr Tajamul Islam, Lecturer Zoology (Contractual), Govt. Degree College Sumbal Sonawari

The post Gastric Cancer: An Enigma For Researchers – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. will make a decision “very soon” on how to unfreeze hundreds of millions of dollars in suspended American military aid to Egypt, the Associate Press reports.

Egypt has been trying to acquire F-16 fighter aircraft, tanks and other material to combat the extremist threat in the Sinai Peninsula and neighboring Libya.

The Obama administration believes that the money is critical to stability in the Middle East.

But the Obama administration must first either assess whether the Egyptian government has made progress in human rights, democracy and the rule of law, or the administration must declare that such aid is in the interests of U.S. national security.

The aid was suspended after the Egyptian military’s 2013 takeover of the government following the ousting of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi.

Kerry spoke at a news conference at the Economic Forum in Sharm Al-Sheikh, Egypt on Saturday.

Original article

The post Kerry: US To Decide ‘Very Soon’ On Resumption Of Military Aid To Egypt appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Kerim Has*

In recent years, the Turkish foreign policy environment has started to discuss the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in a more extensive manner. This increase in discussion is certainly influenced by Turkish President Erdogan’s appeal in the highest level to his Russian counterpart, President Putin, for Turkey to join the SCO. However, the primary and most practical reason for Turkey to be discussing the SCO in regards to foreign policy is that Ankara, keeping its NATO membership and EU candidacy, began to develop its relations with the organisation. The motives behind this new approach by Ankara are based on pragmatic concerns as well as changes in the theoretical framework of its foreign policy implementation.
If one was to look at the activism in Turkish foreign policy, especially in the period between 2005 and 2012, it can be easily observed that Ankara has made considerable achievements in its diplomatic entrepreneurship in many different regions of the world. To illustrate, after obtaining an observer status in the African Union in 2005, Turkey was accepted by the union as the strategic partner of the continent in 2008. Ankara also launched out a new strategic dialogue partnership mechanism with the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council in September 2008. To demonstrate efforts in a different direction, in October 2009, Turkey, with other founding members of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, set up The Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council), an international, intergovernmental organization concerning regional, economic and sociocultural projects. Furthermore, as a new diplomatic outreach to Southeast Asia, Turkey established institutional relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) after a deal on cooperation was signed in July 2010.

Turkey’s redefining its relations with the SCO came after these steps, which can be examined within the confines of the multilateral foreign policy in that period. In 2012, by the summit of leaders of the SCO, Turkey was granted dialogue partner status in the organisation, which was followed by a ceremony of in which Turkey signed a memorandum on the 26th April 2013 in Almaty. At this point, it should also be underlined that the shift in the world’s geopolitical and economic center of gravity from Europe and North America to the Asia-Pacific region, and first to China, has also facilitated the update of Turkey’s Asia strategy and engaged Turkey in regional organisations in a more active role. In accordance with this renewed Asia strategy, Turkey is most likely seeking a dialogue partner, an observer, a full membership or strategic partnership status in these organizations. By the same token, as a domestic factor, the multi-vectored foreign policy of Turkey was backed with political stability by an absolute majority of the governing party in the parliament and the improvement in economic indicators with an average annual GDP growth of over 5 percent in that period.

In this context, the SCO presents a window of opportunity for Turkey’s further economic development and foreign trade volume from a pragmatic win-win point of view. Last year, 29 percent of Turkey’s total imports originated in SCO countries (including the observers and dialogue partners) with respect to just 16 percent in 2003. Again in 2014, Turkey’s total imports from SCO countries reached almost 70 billion dollars whereas its total exports to the group members were approximately 17 billion dollars. This level of economic advancement was actually achieved while some of the SCO countries, including Russia and Iran, were suffering from Western sanctions. Thus, the high economic potential for cooperation between Turkey and the SCO is clear. In contrast, from 2003 to 2014, the EU’s share in Turkey’s total imports declined from 51 percent to 36 percent despite the new members in the union that appeared after 2003. A similar trend can also be seen in Turkey’s export orientation. EU countries had a 58 percent share in Turkey’s total exports in 2003, whereas this ratio significantly decreased to 43 percent in 2014. The SCO countries had a ratio of 6.5 percent of Turkey’s total exports in 2003 with respect to the small rise to 10.5 percent that occurred in the last year.

Even though the increase in Turkish exports to the SCO countries is not shown in significant amounts, the perspective of the relations paves the way for more trading activities, taking into account the complementary characters of the economies in the organisation. The ongoing negotiations between Turkey and its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union on the issue of creating free trade zones may actually accelerate the trend of the economic orientation of Turkey to Asia. Also, Ankara is interested in establishing free trade zones within the SCO; however, it needs to work on this issue yet. Moreover, Turkey’s unique geographical location between Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa presents an opportunity for a faster realization of the Silk Road Economic Belt project of China. This project has an inclusive, but not exclusionary, policy with respect to Turkey, where the civilizational components of the historical Silk Road intersect.

Nonetheless, it should be noted that despite the call, if not pressure, that maintains from Turkey’s NATO partners and EU officials to join the economic sanctions campaign against Russia over the Ukrainian crisis, Turkey holds off implementing the embargo. Indeed, this attitude gives one more chance to both sides for trust-building measures within the SCO for future projects. In addition to this fact, the dramatic improvement of economic links in the last decade between Turkey and the Republic of Tatarstan as a federal subject of Russia is also another basis and can be taken as a model for confidence-building measures in the SCO. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the changing security threat perceptions of Russia vis-à-vis Turkey in a more positive way, mostly through economic relations, opened the doors of Tatarstan for Turkish businessmen and investments. Nowadays, Turkey is Tatarstan’s main foreign trade partner with more than one billion dollars in direct investments in the region’s economy. In fact, a similar constructive approach can also be applied between Turkey and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China within the framework of the SCO. As Chinese scholars most likely prefer to see the SCO through a perspective of free trade, but not via an integrationist project, this kind of approach will serve the interests of all countries in the organisation, not just Turkey’s.

Taking these possible pragmatic results into account, the security dynamics in the wider Eurasian continent also require Turkey to have more direct links and cooperation with the SCO. The three evils – terrorism, radicalism and separatism – are also common threats for Turkey in its own periphery. It is essential that Ankara establishes high-level contacts and cooperation with a multilateral dialogue through regional organisations. This necessity is made especially evident by three specific occurrences: (1) ISIL terrorism in Syria and Iraq as a direct threat and danger to Turkey’s own territorial integrity; (2) The possible falling of Afghanistan and some of the Central Asian countries into a spiral of political instability and radicalism; (3) Rising separatism in many of the countries in the region. The efforts of the western block are not sufficient enough to overcome these threats. It is estimated that more than 4 thousand militants from Central Asian countries are fighting on the side of ISIL in Syria and Iraq, whereas terrorist groups from many other countries also exist in the region.

On the other hand, Afghanistan’s prosperity in all political, security, economic and sociocultural spheres is as much necessary for its people as for the entire region. Turkey is one of the 4 countries among the US, Germany and Italy that left its soldiers in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO troops in the post-2014 era under the legal framework of the Resolute Support Mission. At the same time, Turkey is the only country in this mission that increased the number of soldiers in Afghanistan, which was mainly due to the nature of Turkish assistance to Afghanistan. While avoiding combat missions in Afghanistan, Turkey contributes to the training of the national Afghan police and military force. Moreover, Ankara implements Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Afghanistan through the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA). The utilization of soft power elements in Afghanistan by Turkey is mainly realized in the fields of education, medical services, and the water purification and transportation infrastructure. Continuing with humanitarian assistance efforts, Turkey concentrates on capacity-building in the public administration of this country.

According to TIKA statistics, Turkey realized 806 projects between 2005 and 2014 in Afghanistan – 240 of which were in education and 214 in medical fields. Turkey provided an opportunity for almost 100,000 Afghan students to have a proper education, building 83 new schools in the country. On top of that, Turkish medical services have already reached five million Afghan people.

As a regional dimension of this issue, Afghanistan currently needs more humanitarian aid, as well as aid to help with economic integration with its neighbors. The long-term self-development of Afghanistan and diminishment of radical trends in the society can be built upon by the new, qualified generation – a fact that should be taken into consideration by the SCO. Turkey already has enough experience with this issue in Afghanistan, which is providing a possible new area of contribution on behalf of Turkey to the SCO.

In addition to this possible non-military contribution from Ankara to the SCO, Turkey is also preparing to redefine its military cooperation with the members of the organisation. Turkish military has already begun negotiations to buy Chinese long-range, anti-missile defense systems with its counterpart. Ankara is seeking a technology transfer from China for the missile systems. If the deal is to be realized, it will be possible to talk about a new era in Turkish-Chinese military cooperation. Turkey was the first NATO member that had deals on several military technical issues with Russia a long time ago. If the contract with China is signed, Ankara will also be the first NATO member that realizes such a significant rapprochement with a non-NATO global power, in terms of security, that can have direct, significant effects on Turkey’s relations with the western alliance. However, it should not be forgotten that this issue also gives an opportunity for political leverage to Ankara in its policies in the Middle East with respect to NATO/EU relations. Thus, it would be a mistake to say that the economic orientation of Turkey to the SCO, which has mainly pragmatic motivations, directly accompanies its foreign policy shift to the east. It should be noted that Turkey is not yet ready to abandon its western orientation and EU candidacy for a return to full membership with the SCO.

To conclude, Turkey’s possible contributions to the regional security architecture and economic prosperity within the SCO need hard work in themselves, especially taking into account Turkey’s strong security relations with the western block and its ambitions for economic diversification with other parts of the world. In that context, the converging interests of Turkey and the SCO countries are also going to have direct, positive effects on relations between the SCO and the west itself.

*Kerim Has, USAK Center for Eurasian Studies

This paper was first presented at the 10th Session of The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Forum in Khanty-Mansiysk of Russia, 10-12 March 2015.

The post Turkey’s SCO Perspective: Security And Economic Aspects – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mahima Kaul*

Clearly, the Internet-savvy Indians seem to disagree with the court order to ban the documentary India’s Daughters. Restricting the flow of information, either by stopping broadcasts or banning physical books, is today an analogue problem. Given the porous digital borders, the government would find it difficult to block the documentary. Users will continue to upload the film, with many file names using the word ‘banned’ in the titles.

Yet, the government could block entire websites like it did to restrict pro-ISIS content in 2014, invoking Section 69A of the Indian Information Technology Act 2000, which allows blocking public access to Internet content when India’s sovereignty, or public order, is threatened. The J&K government had resorted to similar measures in 2012 when it tried to stop online circulation of the controversial anti-Islamic video The Innocence of Muslims. At that time, the government used Section 5(2) of the Indian Telegraph Act, another instrument to maintain public order. Indeed, India could potentially shut down the Internet as Egypt did in 2011 when President Hosni Mubarak grew nervous of growing protests against his government.

India’s Daughters isn’t about terrorism, communal disharmony or political protest. The brutal rape it refers to had brought the country to a standstill. And now, outraged that they are not allowed to watch the documentary, Indians are using the Internet to challenge the ban.

Such public support could trigger consequences for netizens individually. Legally, under Section 66A of the Indian Information Technology Act 2000, anyone who sends an ‘offensive message’ (such as a link to the video) through communication services, causing ‘annoyance, inconvenience, danger, obstruction, insult… or ill will’ is liable to be arrested. One could face up to three years in prison and a fine.

That brings us to an interesting conundrum. Recent headlines have highlighted the face-off between the government and the BBC, which went ahead and aired the documentary in Britain. Though the BBC, a foreign media channel, will not broadcast it in India pursuant to the court order, reports suggest that the government may ‘take further action’ against the BBC for broadcasting the documentary. India might even try to restrict it from being telecast in other countries. How that will play out will be interesting. Indian court orders do not apply in the international jurisdiction. But they do here. So the next question to ask is, how will India react within its own borders and bandwidth, with its own citizens?

In India, freedom of expression is guaranteed by the Constitution, albeit with reasonable restrictions, and it is not a right that ought to be restricted so easily. Unfortunately, in our democracy, the unfolding India’s Daughter incident certainly feels like yet another instance of hiding the truth behind the law. Resorting to a ban puts a positively active and engaged citizenry highly susceptible to arrests. Are these the fights we want to fight?

*The writer is head, Cyber and Media Initiative at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: The Hindustan Times

The post India Documentary Ban: State Using Law To Hide The Truth – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Philippa Garson

Dramatic satellite images of Syria’s steady loss of night-time light during its four-year civil war have been released by human rights groups pushing for both a stronger humanitarian response to the crisis and increased efforts towards a political resolution.

The two most striking things about the images distributed by the #WithSyria coalition of rights groups are that they showed that war had led 83 percent of Syria’s lights – 97 percent in Aleppo province – to go out, and that the data behind the research cost just $300.

Xi Li, an assistant professor at State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing at Wuhana University in China, and currently a visiting scholar at Maryland University, US, conducted the night-time imagery research on Syria.

Li has researched fluctuating light patterns in almost 160 countries, but nowhere else has he seen such a dramatic decline in night-time light, except during the genocide in Rwanda where 80 percent of lights went out in just a few months – rather than years as in Syria’s case.

Li sees tremendous benefit in measuring night-time light, a low-budget addition to a hi-tech conflict-monitoring toolbox increasingly used by humanitarian agencies and rights groups that includes high-resolution imagery and unmanned aerial vehicles – or drones.

“These night-time light images are very cheap, almost free, compared to the very high price of high-resolution images. They also have incredibly large cover, and they can record the earth nearly every day, unlike the higher resolutions,” said Li.

Li’s budget does not cover humanitarian work such as this Syria project, which he said was motivated by “personal interest” and a desire “to focus on issues that can help people.”

It involved two sets of data: the first – costing the $300 – consisted of 2.8km/pixel images from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS), whose extensive archives allowed Li to study conflict patterns in 159 countries going back to 1992.

The second, much higher-resolution infra-red images (740m/pixel), came from the National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP), and were downloaded for free.

Although researchers have long used night-time light imaging in studies of urbanization, population growth and the like, its use in monitoring conflict and the large-scale movement of displaced people is a relatively new trend that is only starting to gather momentum, says Frank Witmer, computer science professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage, US.

Witmer, who conducted his own research on fluctuations in night-time light during the separatist conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia/South Ossetia in 2011, found that many aspects of war such as individual explosions and deaths were not detectable, but that other phenomena such as refugee movements, power grid damage and fires could show up. “Combining multiple sources of satellite imagery with the often partial and biased media reports can help provide a more accurate picture of the spatial and temporal distribution of violence, even in the “fog of war”, he concluded in his research.

The science is far from perfect and many other components are required to corroborate the imagery evidence, including witness reports on the ground and other hi-tech information sources, Witmer explained.

Lack of light doesn’t necessarily mean people have moved out. In very underdeveloped countries, millions live without electricity in regions that show up as vast areas of black. Usually, year-on-year images of such countries show a steady increase in electricity, in tandem with development and economic growth.

But research Li conducted on Zimbabwe showed a steady loss of light that corresponded directly with the country’s slide into economic collapse. Light patterns there showed a decline in the agricultural industry but a boom near the South African border.

The benefits of night-time light imaging are clear – low cost and a long-term record – and efforts are underway to digitize older, analogue night-time light imagery. But there are obstacles too: cloud cover, bright moons and summer months in the far northern hemisphere where nights are short, can all inhibit good data.

Li has now started research on the socio-economic situation in ISIS-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria. He wants to know whether the coalition airstrikes are really having an impact on ISIS.

“Are areas no longer controlled by ISIS now brighter than they were before? How effectively is ISIS managing the land? Some media reports say that it is not just brutal but that it is also very effective in managing land and people. I want to know what kind of access they have to electricity in these areas,” he says.
– See more at: http://www.irinnews.org/report/101223/the-technology-behind-syria-s-lights-out-campaign#sthash.em9PWniH.dpuf

The post The Technology Behind Syria’s Lights Out Campaign – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Behzad Shahandeh*

It seems that six international powers that are involved in nuclear talks with Iran are overcoming oppositions and obstructionist efforts of certain regional lobbies. At least, new remarks made by heads of those states that are members of the United Nations Security Council show that a historical consensus over a nuclear deal with Iran is in the offing.

Iran’s major partner in Asia, that is China, is meanwhile playing a prominent role in this regard. In various statements, Chinese officials have expressed concern about efforts made by those people who are challenging a possible deal with Iran, noting that this historical opportunity should not be put at jeopardy through such efforts. This approach is mostly a result of China’s understanding of Iran’s important position, especially in the Middle East region. Beijing, therefore, believes that Iran and the Middle East region constitute a sensitive region which is still making its way up through the ranks of international system.

In fact, the increasing political weight and importance of Iran has coincided with China’s plan to boost its global influence. China has already gone through three decades of economic reconstruction with total success. According to figures released by the International Monetary Fund in December 2014, the country has turned into the world’s biggest economic powerhouse with a gross domestic product (GDP) of 17.6 trillion dollars, which is a good criterion for measuring purchasing power of its people. Therefore, China is willing to strengthen its global standing in proportion to this economic capacity.

It goes without saying that implementation of this strategy by Beijing will require China to have extended relations with such countries as Iran, which is among major developing states. This point has been taken into account by the Chinese President Xi Jinping when formulating his international strategy. He has emphasized that China gives special priority to interaction with major developing countries, including Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Iran.

China’s strategy to open new avenues for cooperation with Iran has prompted leaders in Beijing to do their best in order for a final nuclear deal to be signed with Iran as soon as possible. All evidence points to the fact that Beijing has already made the most of the interim deal that was signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries in the Swiss city of Geneva last November.

As a result of the interim deal, the volume of China’s trade with Iran has hit USD 52 billion, which has been 10 percent higher than a year before. Of course, it should be noted that the Iranian side has been likewise able to create a better balance in bilateral relations. A prominent example was the export of USD 8.5 billion worth of petrochemical products and USD 8 billion of non-oil goods by Iran to China. In the new phase of bilateral cooperation, Tehran and Beijing have extended their cooperation to the important area of defense and China is now considering Iran a strategic partner. In September 2014, the two countries staged their first naval maneuver in the Persian Gulf.

Also, a major turning point in the two countries relations at international level came about during a trip to China by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani in which the two countries discussed Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. During those talks, Beijing also indicated its willingness to help Iran join the organization as a permanent member.

According to present regulations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, countries that are under UN sanctions cannot become permanent members. Various meetings and negotiations on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit encouraged China to double its efforts to remove the obstacle of international sanctions against Iran.

Xi, the leader of the People’s Republic of China, has been chosen to this post in early 2013 and will stay in office up to 2023, and has considered a major part for Iran in the “New Silk Road” which is a major project launched by Beijing at the cost of USD 40 billion. He is the first head of state in China, who has not been appointed by Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping and is also considered the most powerful Chinese leader after Deng. Xi has already proven that he is somehow distancing from conservative policies of Deng’s main disciples. The previous generation of Chinese leaders, which was influenced by the ideas of Deng Xiaoping, believed that China should hide its true power in order not to make other countries sensitive.

However, the new Chinese president believes that Beijing should play a high-profile role in international affairs. For this reason, he seeks an international share and presence for China that could be proportionate to the country’s huge economic might. Of course, Xi’s policies are by no means reckless or inconsiderate because China’s powerful presence in international scene is, first of all, aimed at protecting and supporting the country’s increasing economic power.

From this viewpoint, China are not an exception in international relations. Americans also first gave priority to protecting their economic interest in the world. When they turned into a top economic power, and in fact, the world’s biggest economic power, at the end of the 19th century, they went through a process which took 80 years until the end of the World War II and turned the United States into a full-fledged global superpower. Given new technologies that are now available to China, the country is supposed to go through the same process in a shorter period of time.

Xi is expected to pay his first official visit to Iran in May 2015. He will be the first Chinese president to take a trip to Iran after the lapse of 13 years. Chinese president is, at the same time, head of China Communist Party’s Politburo with 87,000 members and is also commander in chief of the China’s military forces. Jiang Zemin, was the last Chinese president to pay an official visit to Iran in 2002, which Iran’s president was Mohammad Khatami.

His successor, Hu Jintao, who was China’s president from 2003 to 2013, never visited Iran, though he traveled to Saudi Arabia twice. Therefore, now that achievement of a final nuclear deal seems to be more likely than ever before, world powers that are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are taking new steps to expand their ties with Iran. In past years and due to various reasons, including vast trade relations with the United States, China was just an onlooker when sanctions were imposed on Iran and even took sides with countries that imposed those sanctions. Now, due to its increasing trade share in the world, China has more maneuvering power compared to the past in its relations with the United States.

Therefore, Beijing has been opening a new chapter in its cooperation with Tehran and even if nuclear talks faced a deadlock, China would not be possible to take sides with countries that impose sanctions on Iran anymore. Meanwhile, the agreements and contracts that this major Asian power has signed with Iran have been important steps in undermining and eroding the effect of international sanctions against Iran.

* Behzad Shahandeh
Professor of East Asia Studies at University of Tehran

Source: Iran Newspaper
http://iran-newspaper.com/
ٰTranslated By: Iran Review.Org

The post Nuclear Deal Prelude To Expanded Ties Between Iran And China appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Putin and his PR team have parted company. The Ketchum-Kremlin breakup leaves many wondering who it was that initiated the divorce. Putin and the American PR agency were partners for the past 9 years. Ketchum was originally retained to polish Putin’s international image in preparation for the 2006 G8 summit in St. Petersburg.

But I wonder why this marriage ever took place at all. At that time Putin’s international reputation didn’t need just a cosmetic job. Major surgery was in order.

Former Kremlin big shot Boris Berezovsky’s concerted media assaults on Putin were in high gear. His objective was regime change. The oligarch’s henchman Alexander Litvinenko was uttering allegations that Putin had been behind apartment building explosions, the Nord-Ost theater hostage siege, training of al-Qaeda terrorists, the Beslan school hostage tragedy, and he even accused Putin of pedophilia.

A significant non-military war was being waged against Putin.

This was a case where serious countermeasures were urgently needed, not just a simple PR whitewash. If Ketchum people ever really understood the magnitude of the situation, they had a moral obligation to tell Putin they were the wrong partner for the job.

During Ketchum’s tenure things just went downhill. There were the Politkovskaya and Litvinenko murder accusations, allegations of using gas as a political weapon, and of starting a war with Georgia. There was an avalanche of negative stories before and during the Sochi Olympics, culminating in the disastrous characterization of Putin’s role in the emerging Ukrainian crisis. These were media assaults that had no apparent factual basis, but there was no effective Kremlin counteraction.

By the end of Ketchum’s association with Putin, the president had become widely regarded internationally as a tyrant who would stop at nothing. Hillary Clinton compared him to Hitler. Putin has become an international outcast. Even the G8, over which the whole Ketchum debacle started, threw Putin out of the organization. Putin lost the battle for credibility and respect.

Putin’s confidence in Ketchum was clearly misplaced. I have personal knowledge that alternative proposals were made to the Kremlin well before Sochi to remediate Putin’s international image and counteract the efforts of his international political enemies. Had he then kicked out Ketchum and accepted these proposals for effective countermeasures, Putin could well have avoided all the humiliation of the Sochi-related media attacks, and could have thwarted the NATO-US-EU scapegoating of himself for the virtual collapse of the Ukrainian state and the outbreak of civil war.

Now, principally over Ukraine, the non-military war against Putin has escalated to the point where knowledgeable experts believe Russia and the U.S. are in jeopardy of being sucked into a hot war, perhaps a nuclear one. Gorbachev has spoken out about the risk. Noted American scholar of Russian history Stephen F. Cohen has voiced similar concerns.

Currently Russia has proved itself to be totally devoid of an effective capability for dealing with the kind of non-military war that is still being waged against it. Putin faces not just a simple campaign of denigration. All along his attackers have used a highly sophisticated methodology.

Much reputational damage has been done since the serious remedial proposals were dismissed by the Kremlin before Sochi. But it is not too late to initiate a turnaround. The job now would be more complex, but yet doable. What other sensible choice could Putin make? The alternative could be cataclysmic for Russia and the world.

William Dunkerley is author of the books “Ukraine in the Crosshairs,” “The Phony Litvinenko Murder,” and “Medvedev’s Media Affairs,” all published by Omnicom Press. He is a media business analyst and consultant based in New Britain, CT. Mr. Dunkerley works extensively with media organizations in Russia and other post-communist countries, and has advised government leaders on strategies for building press freedom and a healthy media sector. He is a Senior Fellow at the American University in Moscow.

The post The War Putin Lost – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

As the US-Iranian talks near the announced deadline, the question is no longer about nukes. It is about the Iranian regime itself.
Will it become moderate after reaching a deal? Will suspicions end by a deal that lifts sanctions and turns Iran into a West-friendly country open to the world? Or will it only free an extremist lion from its cage?

It is difficult to read the mind of the Iranian regime because it is insular. Iranian politicians resemble Arab extremists particularly regarding the balance between political speeches and real practice, including concealing foreign relations, specifically with the US.

Regardless of the concessions made by US negotiators, this relation will not develop much further except where it serves the Iranian military. This is because hostility toward Washington is the basic pillar of the 1979 revolution and of the country’s foreign activities. Iran’s modern history has exposed this ever since the era of Abolhassan Banisadr and until that of Hassan Rouhani. Those who called for openness were held accountable from the start. The first to do so was Banisadr, the first president of Iran, who due to his open-mindedness was forced to flee to Iraq and then France.

Iran was once open to others due to its need for arms during its war with Iraq. Tehran at the time tried to open a secret channel of communication and seal a military and political deal with the administration of then President Ronald Reagan. Ten years of cold relations ensued until Mohammed Khatami was elected president based on his open-minded agenda. He sought rapprochement with Washington, but extremists within his regime did not let him implement his agenda, and he ended up without jurisdiction. He exited the presidency after being humiliated at all levels.

Then there was President Ahmadinejad, who despite his threatening rhetoric toward the West wanted to open communication channels with the Americans. Ahmadinejad gave this task to his cousin, aide and keeper of his secrets, Rahim Mashaei. However, it failed after Ahmadinejad was sharply criticized for it, and he was thus deprived of the chance to run again for the presidency.

We are now in the era of Rouhani, who was elected president under the excuse of Iran’s desire to move from extremism to moderation. However, he limited his job to sealing a comprehensive nuclear and political deal with Washington. He has not been open on either the domestic or foreign levels.

When looking at the path of the Iranian command ever since it toppled the shah, can we say that after the promised historical deal Iran will head toward openness and moderation, and end the era of “psychological war” with the US? Iran most probably aspires to a limited beneficial relation with the West, but does not want to change, as it is afraid of political transformation. Extremist intellect still dominates its religious and security leaders, and it is afraid of how openness can influence its capabilities. Despite its modern rhetoric, the regime has doubled its powers in a few years.

During the era of Rouhani in particular, it did not loosen its iron fist, but rather empowered itself. Unlike Rouhani’s conciliatory speech, the regime expanded its foreign adventures, increased its neighbors’ concerns and exploited Washington’s desire to seal a deal with it.

All of the regime’s aspects and activities imply that Iran neither intends to change like the Soviets did during the era of President Mikhail Gorbachev, nor to gradually transform like the Chinese did.

Iran’s regime is a case between China and North Korea — it is less insular, but very far from openness and moderation. This is where the threat of granting it a vital nuclear agreement lies.

The post Iran Not Likely To Mend Its Ways – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Being the best at something doesn’t necessarily mean there is no more room for improvement. Take Europe’s healthcare systems: with most national schemes being ranked among the World Health Report’s top 30, you would think our patients are the happiest in the world. But is this really the case?

This question was at the centre of a study carried out by researchers under the QUALICOPC project and recently published by the World Health Organisation. Together they surveyed some 69 201 patients from 31 European countries plus Australia, Canada and New Zealand – all affected by diseases requiring long term management. The patients were asked to share their latest experience with a general practitioner by rating the service provided according to five criteria: accessibility/availability, continuity, comprehensiveness (whether the practitioner asked his patient about additional problems), patient involvement and doctor-patient communication.

With this data, the team aimed to find out whether there is still a potential for improvement in some of the surveyed countries. This potential was calculated by multiplying the proportion of negative patient experiences with the mean importance score in each country. Scores were then divided into low, medium and high improvement potential, and pair-wise correlations were made between improvement scores and three dimensions of the structure of primary care – governance, economic conditions and workforce development.

The results led to the overall finding that ‘accessibility and continuity of care show relatively low potential for improvement, while in many countries comprehensiveness was indicated to be a priority area.’ Nine countries had a moderate level of improvement potential for patient involvement in decision-making about treatment, and all countries performed well on doctor-patient communication.

Among all surveyed countries, eight came out with a low improvement potential in all features, which indicated positive patient experiences. These are Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. However this patient-perceived improvement potential did not entirely reflect the overall strength of the primary care structure, notably in Switzerland and Luxembourg where the latter is rather weak. Other than that, QUALICOPC findings largely confirm the hypothesis that a stronger primary care structure is associated with more person-focused care.

The core objective of QUALICOPC was to evaluate primary care in Europe against criteria of quality, equity and costs. To this end, the project has spent four years gathering information on different settings and national strategies for primary care related to generic health care system goals, quality of services provided and quality of primary care as perceived by patients.

Source: CORDIS

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India and Sri Lanka don’t have a land boundary but we are the closest neighbours in every sense, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, addressing the Sri Lankan Parliament today.

“We have faced violence. We have faced brutal terrorism. We have also seen peaceful settlement. We have dealt with these in our own ways,” said Modi.

“I can assure you that to India, the unity and sovereignty of Sri Lanka are paramount,” he said.

The Indian Premier said his vision of an ideal neighbourhood is one in which trade, investments, technology, ideas and people flow easily across borders.

“India is a natural source of investment for Sri Lanka,” Modi said.

According to Modi, connecting this vast region by land and sea, the two countries can together become the “engines of prosperity” and called for the two governments to work together to harness the “vast potential of the ocean economy”.

Modi said that the shared responsibility of the two countries in the maritime neighbourhood is clear and that India and Sri Lanka are too close to each other to be insulated from each other.

“Our recent histories have shown that we suffer together and we are more effective when we work with each other,” Modi said.

“Our cooperation is critical in combating terrorism and extremism,” he said, adding, that “both have internal threats.”

The need for us to cooperate on security has never been stronger than it is today, Modi said.

“We should expand maritime security cooperation between India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and all other partners in the region,” said Modi.

The post Modi: Unity And Sovereignty Of Sri Lanka Paramount To India appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By India Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Following is the transcript for the speech given by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Sri Lanka Parliament.

Honorable Speaker of Parliament Mr. Chamal Rajapaksa ji

Honorable Prime Minister of Sri Lanka Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe

Honorable Leader of the Opposition Mr. Nimal Siripala de Silva

Honorable Members of Parliament

Distinguished guests

I am truly delighted to visit Sri Lanka – a land of beauty, culture and friendship.

I am deeply honoured to be in this Parliament. I am conscious of its rich history.

This Parliament represents one of Asia`s oldest democracies; and, one of its most vibrant.

Long before many others in the world, Sri Lanka gave every individual a vote and voice.

To the people of Sri Lanka, ayubuvan, Vanakkam.

I bring the greetings of 1.25 billion friends; and millions of fans of Sri Lankan cricket.

I bring the blessings from the land of Bodh Gaya to the land of Anuradhapura.

I stand here in respect for our shared heritage; and, in commitment to our shared future.

Last May, when I took the oath of office, I was honoured by the presence of South Asian leaders at the ceremony.

Their presence was a celebration of democracy`s march in our region. It was also recognition of our common destiny.

I am convinced that the future of any country is influenced by the state of its neighbourhood.

The future that I dream for India is also the future that I wish for our neighbours.

We in this region are on the same journey: to transform the lives of our people.

Our path will be easier, the journey quicker and destination nearer when we walk step in step.

As I stand here in Colombo and look north towards the Himalaya, I marvel at our region`s uniqueness – of our rich diversity and our common civilisational links.

We have been formed from the same elements; and, from our interconnected histories.

Today, we stand together as proud independent nations – sovereign and equal.

India and Sri Lanka do not have a land boundary, but we are the closest neighbours in every sense.

No matter where you look in India or Sri Lanka, the many strands of our links – religion, language, culture, food, customs, traditions and epics – come together into a deep and strong bond of familiarity and friendship.

Ours is a relationship that is beautifully defined by the journey of Mahindra and Sanghamitra. They carried the message of peace, tolerance and friendship more than two millenniums ago.

It is evoked by Kannagi, the central character of the great Tamil epic Silapathikaram, who is worshipped as goddess the Pattini in Sri Lanka.

It lives in the Ramayan trail in Sri Lanka.

It expresses itself in devotion at the dargah of the Nagore Andavar and the Christian shrine of Velankanni.

It is reflected in the friendship of Swami Vivekananda and Anagarika Dharmapala, the founder of the Maha Bodhi Society in Sri Lanka and India.

It lives in the work of Mahatma Gandhi`s followers in India and Sri Lanka.

Above all, our relationship thrives through the inter-woven lives of ordinary Indians and Sri Lankans.

Our independent life began at about the same time.

Sri Lanka has made remarkable progress since then.

The nation is an inspiration for our region in human development. Sri Lanka is home to enterprise and skill; and extraordinary intellectual heritage.

There are businesses of global class here.

Sri Lanka is a leader in advancing cooperation in South Asia.

And, it is important for the future of the Indian Ocean Region.

Sri Lanka`s progress and prosperity is also a source of strength for India.

So, Sri Lanka`s success is of great significance to India.

And, as a friend, our good wishes, and our support and solidarity have always been with Sri Lanka.

And, it will always be there for you.

For all of us in our region, our success depends on how we define ourselves as a nation.

All of us in this region, indeed every nation of diversity, have dealt with the issues of identities and inclusion, of rights and claims, of dignity and opportunity for different sections of our societies.

We have all seen its diverse expressions. We have faced tragic violence. We have encountered brutal terrorism. We have also seen successful examples of peaceful settlements.

Each of us has sought to address these complex issues in our own ways.

However we choose to reconcile them, to me something is obvious:

Diversity can be a source of strength for nations.

When we accommodate the aspirations of all sections of our society, the nation gets the strength of every individual.

And, when we empower states, districts and villages, we make our country stronger and stronger.

You can call this my bias. I have been a Chief Minister for 13 years; a Prime Minister for less than a year!

Today, my top priority is to make the states in India stronger. I am a firm believer in cooperative federalism.

So, we are devolving more power and more resources to the states. And, we are making them formal partners in national decision making processes.

Sri Lanka has lived through decades of tragic violence and conflict. You have successfully defeated terrorism and brought the conflict to an end.

You now stand at a moment of historic opportunity to win the hearts and heal the wounds across all sections of society.

Recent elections in Sri Lanka have reflected the collective voice of the nation – the hope for change, reconciliation and unity.

The steps that you have taken in recent times are bold and admirable. They represent a new beginning.

I am confident of a future of Sri Lanka, defined by unity and integrity; peace and harmony; and, opportunity and dignity for everyone.

I believe in Sri Lanka`s ability to achieve it.

It is rooted in our common civilisational heritage.

The path ahead is a choice that Sri Lanka has to make. And, it is a collective responsibility of all sections of the society; and, of all political streams in the country.

But, I can assure you of this:

For India, the unity and integrity of Sri Lanka are paramount.

It is rooted in our interest. It stems from our own fundamental beliefs in this principle.

Hon`ble Speaker and Distinguished Members,

My vision of an ideal neighbourhood is one in which trade, investments, technology, ideas and people flow easily across borders; when partnerships in the region are formed with the ease of routine.

In India, the growth momentum has been restored. India has become the fastest growing major economy in the world.

The world sees India as the new frontier of economic opportunity.

But, our neighbours should have the first claim on India. And I again repeat, the first claim on India is of our neighbours – of Sri Lanka.

I will be happy if India serves a catalyst in the progress of our neighbours.

In our region, Sri Lanka has the potential to be our strongest economic partner.

We will work with you to boost trade and make it more balanced.

India`s trade environment is becoming more open. Sri Lanka should not fall behind others in this competitive world.

That is why we should conclude an ambitious Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

India can also be a natural source of investments – for exports to India and elsewhere; and to build your infrastructure. We have made good progress today. Let us get together to harness the vast potential of the Ocean Economy.

Our two nations must also take the lead in increasing cooperation in the South Asian Region and the linked BIMSTEC Region.

Connecting this vast region by land and sea, our two countries can become engines of regional prosperity.

I also assure you of India`s full commitment to development partnership with Sri Lanka. We see this as a responsibility of a friend and neighbour.

India has committed 1.6 billion U.S. dollars in development assistance. Today, we have committed further assistance of up to 318 million dollars to the railway sector.

We will continue our development partnership. We will be guided by your Government. And, we will do so with the same level of transparency that we expect in our own country.

Last month we signed the agreement on cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

More than anywhere else in the region, I see enormous potential to expand cooperation with Sri Lanka in areas like agriculture, education, health, science and technology, and space. Indeed, we are limited only by our imagination.

We hope that Sri Lanka will take full benefit of India`s satellite for the SAARC Region. This should be in Space by December 2016.

People are at the heart of our relationship. When we connect people, bonds between nations become stronger. That is why we have decided to extend the visa-on-arrival facility to Sri Lankan citizens.

We will also increase connectivity between our countries. We will strengthen ties of culture and religion. Last month we announced reduction in fees for Sri Lankan nationals visiting National Museum in Delhi to see the Kapilavastu Relics. We will bring our shared Buddhist heritage closer to you through an exhibition. Together, we will develop our Buddhist and Ramayana Trails. My birth place Varnagarh was an international centre of Buddhist learning in ancient times. Excavations have revealed a hostel for 2000 students and in plans to redevelop the centre.

Mr Speaker,

A future of prosperity requires a strong foundation of security for our countries and peace and stability in the region.

The security of our two countries is indivisible. Equally, our shared responsibility for our maritime neighbourhood is clear.

India and Sri Lanka are too close to look away from each other. Nor can we be insulated from one another.

Our recent histories have shown that we suffer together; and we are more effective when we work with each other.

Our cooperation helped deal with the devastation of Tsunami in 2004. As a Chief Minister, I was pleased to share our experience in reconstruction after the Bhuj earthquake in 2001.

Our cooperation is also integral to our success in combating terrorism and extremism.

For both of us, local threats remain. But, we see threats arising in new forms and from new sources. We are witnessing globalisation of terrorism. The need for our cooperation has never been stronger than today.

The Indian Ocean is critical to the security and prosperity of our two countries. And, we can be more successful in achieving these goals if we work together; build a climate of trust and confidence; and we remain sensitive to each other`s interest.

We deeply value our security cooperation with Sri Lanka. We should expand the maritime security cooperation between India, Sri Lanka and Maldives to include others in the Indian Ocean area.

I often say that the course of the 21st century would be determined by the currents of the Indian Ocean. Shaping its direction is a responsibility for the countries in the region.

We are two countries at the crossroads of the Indian Ocean. Your leadership and our partnership will be vital for building a peaceful, secure, stable and prosperous maritime neighbourhood.

In our deeply interconnected lives, it is natural to have differences. Sometimes, it touches the lives of ordinary people. We have the openness in our dialogue, the strength of our human values and, the goodwill in our relationship to resolve them.

Mr.Speaker,

Sri Lanka and India are at a moment of a great opportunity and responsibility – for realising the dreams of our people.

This is also a time for renewal in our relationship; for a new beginning and new vigour in our partnership.

We have to ensure that our proximity always translates into closeness.

We were honoured that President Sirisena chose India as his first destination last month. I am honoured to be his first guest here.

This is how it should be between neighbours.

Tomorrow I will go to Talaimannar to flag off the train to Madhu Road. This is part of the old India –Lanka rail link.

I recall the lines of a famous song ‘Sindu Nadiyin Misai’ composed by the great nationalist poet Subramanian Bharati in the early 20th century:

‘Singalatheevukkinor paalam ameippom’(we shall construct a bridge to Sri Lanka)

I have come with the hope of building this bridge – a bridge that rests on strong pillars of our shared inheritance; of shared values and vision; of mutual support and solidarity; of friendly exchanges and productive cooperation; and, above all, belief in each other and our shared destiny. Thank you once again for the honour to be with you.

Thank you very much.

The post Speech Of India’s PM Narendra Modi In Sri Lankan Parliament – Transcript appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Unidentified militants hurled a grenade at the house of a businessman, identified as Biren Agarwal, located in the market area of Sepon village in Sivasagar District, killing his younger brother, Situ Agarwal, and their driver, Dimbeswar Bhuyan, on February 13, 2015. The locals claimed that the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA-I), which remains active in the area, had recently demanded extortion money from the businessman’s family. The family had refused to make the payment.

In an encounter on February 9, 2015, Security Forces (SFs), killed a cadre of the I.K. Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS), identified as Orga, at Fulkumari Forest in Kokrajhar District.

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, a total of 13 persons, including three civilians, one trooper and nine militants, have already been killed in insurgency-related incidents across the State in 2015 (data till March 8, 2015).

2014 had registered an overall rise in insurgency-related violence in the State. As against 101 fatalities, including 35 civilians, six SF personnel and 60 militants in 2013, year 2014 recorded a total of 305 fatalities, including 184 civilians, five SF personnel and 116 militants, an increase of nearly 202 per cent. In 2012, overall fatalities stood at 91, including 32 civilians, four SF personnel and 55 militants. The trend of overall fatalities has remained erratic in the State, but recorded a sustained decline between 2010 and 2012.

Worryingly, in 2014, Assam recorded the highest number of civilian fatalities since 2008, when civilian fatalities stood at 224. The number of civilian fatalities in Assam in 2014, at 184, was more than triple the combined total of civilian fatalities in the remaining six insurgency-affected states of the northeast, at 61.

In the worst incident of civilian killings, at least 69 Adivasis were killed by NDFB-IKS militants in Sonitpur, Kokrajhar and Chirang Districts on December 23, 2014. NDFB-IKS’s strategy of similar “soft target” killings also included the slaughter of 46 Muslim settlers in Baksa and Kokrajhar Districts in May 2014.

In terms of overall fatalities Assam is now the worst-affected State in India, with 305 fatalities, followed, by Jammu & Kashmir (193) and, within the Northeast, by Meghalaya (76), Manipur (54), Nagaland (15), Arunachal Pradesh (9), Tripura (4) and Mizoram (2). Assam accounted for 66 per cent of the 465 fatalities in the Northeast through 2014.

Other parameters of violence also witnessed increases through 2014. The number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) and resultant fatalities increased from four and 19, respectively, in 2013, to 18 and 181, respectively, in 2014. Also, after a gap of two years, the State witnessed attacks on non-locals – three incidents in which eight people were killed. No such attacks were reported through 2012 and 2013. Though the number of explosions decreased from 22 in 2013 to 20 in 2014, the resultant fatalities increased from four in 2013 to eight in 2014.

In 2014, killings were reported from 19 Districts, as against 14 in 2013, out of a total of 27 Districts. The Districts from where killings were reported in 2014 were Sonitpur, Baksa, Kokrajhar, Udalguri, Darrang, Barpeta, Karbi Anglong, Dima Hasao, Hailakandi, Goalpara, Dhubri, Nagaon, Golaghat, Sivasagar, Jorhat, Chirang, Tinsukia, Karimganj and Dibrugarh.

Long standing inter-state border disputes involving Assam, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, which periodically lead to violence, resulted in 31 fatalities in Assam during 2014. The role of Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and Tani Land National Liberation Tigers (TLNLT), a relatively insignificant group demanding a separate homeland for the Tani people in Arunachal Pradesh, was suspected in these killings.

Recorded cases of abduction and extortion also increased through 2014, as against the preceding year. SATP recorded 44 incidents of abduction in 2014 in which 65 persons were abducted; in 2013, these numbers stood at 36 and 60, respectively. As many such incidents go unreported, these numbers are certainly likely a gross underestimate. Indeed, a July 16, 2014, report, claimed that, over the preceding last five years, more than 1,300 cases of abduction had been filed in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD) areas alone. BTAD comprises of four Districts – Baksa, Kokrajhar, Udalguri, and Chirang – of Assam’s 27, of which 25 are insurgency affected.

The SATP database also recorded nine cases of extortion in 2014, as against ten in 2013. According to media reports, however, the State had registered over 4,500 cases of extortion between January 2010 and June 2014. A Police official quoting official records, disclosed, in August 2014, “In 2010, total 909 cases of extortion were registered across Assam. The figures kept going up. In 2011, it was 992, followed by 1,074 in 2012. Last year [2013], there were 1,214 registered extortion cases. This year [2014], around 450 such cases were registered in the first six months”.

Worryingly, eight militant groups – ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers (KPLT), Kamatapur Liberation organisation (KLO), Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM-Assam unit), Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist) and Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) – presently remain active in Assam. Among these, NDFB-IKS dominated the insurgency scenario in 2014. Of the 182 civilian fatalities (out of a total of 184) in which insurgent outfits were thought to be involved, NDFB-IKS was found to be implicated in 137 (in 25 incidents); followed by NSCN-IM, 16 civilian killings (single incident); ULFA-I, five civilian fatalities (four incidents); KPLT, four civilian deaths (three incidents), National Santhal Liberation Army (NSLA), three civilian fatalities (one incident); National Social Council of Adivasis (NSCA), United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), NSCN, Karbi National Liberation Army (KNLA),KLO, Ranjan Daimary faction of NDFB (NDFB-RD), one each. 10 civilian fatalities remain unattributed.

Similarly, of the four SFs fatalities (out of a total of five) in which the role of insurgent outfits was identified, NDFB-IKS was found involved in one incident, while the newly formed Karbi outfit, United People’s Liberation Army (UPLA), was involved in the killing of three SF personnel. In the worst incident, on June 5-6, 2014, Superintendent of Police (SP-Karbi Anglong), Nityananda Goswami, along with his Personal Security Officer (PSO) Ratul Nunisa, was killed during an encounter with UPLA militants in Karbi Anglong District. The killing of one trooper remains unattributed.

NDFB-IKS also lost the largest number of its cadres in clashes with SFs, at 43; followed by the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA), 15 cadres; KPLT, 15; ULFA-I, six; NSCN-IM, four; three cadres each of KLO and UPLF; and two cadres each of UDLA, KNLA and United A’chik Liberation Army (UALA), one cadre each of the Santhal Tiger Force (STF), Rabha Viper Army (RVA), the Khaplang faction of NSCN (NSCN-K); and one Islamic militant. Further, three cadres of UALA, as well as one cadre each of NDFB-IKS and UDLA, were lynched publicly in separate incidents. Two UPLF militants were killed in factional clashes. ULFA-I executed at least eight of its own cadres, including its ‘commander’, Partha Gogoi, on the instructions of its ‘commander-in-chief’, Paresh Baruah, for ‘conspiring with Police and SFs to engineer a mass surrender of cadres’ over the months of December 2013 to March 2014. The group identity of 10 militants killed remains indeterminate.

Among 405 militants arrested during 2014, 65 belonged to NDFB-IKS, followed by KPLT with 41 militants and GNLA with 22 militants. Thus far, in 2015, a total of 285 militants have been arrested, including 165 of the NDFB-IKS.

Meanwhile, in mid-February 2015, the Indian Army claimed that the entire top leadership of KPLT had been arrested. An Army release stated, “The operation has decimated the organisation and almost completely wiped out the dreaded KPLT from West Karbi Anglong District of Assam facilitating return of peace in the poorly developed region.” Earlier, SFs had arrested ‘chairman’, ‘commander-in-chief’, ‘deputy chief’, ’finance secretary’, ‘auditor’ and ‘area commanders’ of KPLT in different operations. However, SP (Karbi Anglong), Mugdha Jyoti Mahanta, on February 1, 2015, observed, “But the KPLT now has been split into five groups – KPLT (Buche group), KPLT (Pratap), KPLT (Donri), KPLT (Symbon) and KPLT (Sojong). Some of these groups have six-seven members.”

Meanwhile, the fear of these groups developing a nexus or coming together has worried the State Government. On July 7, 2014, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, during his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reportedly stated, “The Maoist problem poses a threat; some of the insurgent groups have joined hands with the Maoists. The problem has to be nipped in the bud. There isn’t much difference between the insurgent groups and the Maoists.” Elaborating on the nexus between the jihadis and the tribal extremists, Assam Director General of Police (DGP) Khagen Sarma noted, on November 14, 2014, that they had been found to be using each other’s resources. Almost all militant outfits in the State, including the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland were in league with the jihadis, the DGP noted. Further, according to a February 23, 2015, report, ULFA-I’s Paresh Baruah was planning to band together some 14 insurgent groups in the Northeast, to form a ‘government-in-exile’ by November 2015. The identity of these groups is not yet known.

The transnational jihadi presence in Assam, which was revealed after discovery of the Burdwan Module in West Bengal. After the accidental blast at Burdwan on October 2, 2014, in which two people were killed and another was injured, a total of 17 persons were arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), which took over the case on October 10, 2014. An NIA Press Release on January 28, 2015, claimed that, during the course of investigations, it had been found that operatives of JMB had established their networks in different Districts of West Bengal, Assam and Jharkhand, particularly in Murshidabad, Nadia, Malda, Birbhum and Burdwan in West Bengal; Barpeta in Assam; and Sahibganj and Pakur in Jharkhand. Moreover, the formation of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), with Assam specifically mentioned as its target (along with Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir) by Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri, gives new cause for concern for the security establishment in a demographically and ethnically volatile State.

In the meantime, Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreements, wrongly described [on January 26, 2015] by Chief Minister Gogoi as a ‘success’ in mainstreaming militant groups, have only brought hardship to the people inhabiting remote areas of the State. A June 21, 2014, report claimed that people living in more than 2,000 villages stretching from Mazbat [Udalguri District] to Gohpur [Sonitpur District], had alleged that, taking advantage of the SoO pacts with the Government, Bodo and Adivasis militants were moving openly in the area, engaging in abduction and extortion before the very eyes of the Police. Interestingly, the present Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) Chairman, R.N. Ravi in an opinion piece published on May 8, 2014, following the NDFB-IKS massacre of Muslims, summed up the existing SoO mechanism as:

They (militants) summarily remove any resistance to their writs by demonstrative killings. They control contracts for Government works and dominate the lucrative trade in legal and illicit forest assets. Besides, the Government gives them hefty cash (sic) every month in the guise of maintenance of their cadres and sustenance of ‘political’ activities of their leaders… They are allowed to retain their military hardware and continue their military operations with a rider that they must not attack the security forces. In this paradigm of peace the militias and the security forces of the state are at mutual peace while the people remain at the receiving end of the both.

13 militant groups are currently under SoO agreements with the Government. The Assam Government has spent over INR 9 million on the maintenance of 3,930 cadres of these groups in 24 designated camps. However, no new SoO agreement was signed in 2014.

Significantly, the opportunities created by the sharp decline in fatalities witnessed in the State, starting from 2010 and lasting till 2013, primarily due to increasing Bangladeshi cooperation, have not been used to strengthen the law and order infrastructure. State Environment and Forest Minister Rockybul Hussain, while replying on behalf of Chief Minister Gogoi, who also holds the Home portfolio, on August 4, 2014, disclosed that 14,356 posts out of the 75,559 sanctioned posts in the Police Department, were vacant. Further, the State failed to utilize INR 10 million of the total INR 12.12 million Central funds released for modernization of the Assam Police between 2011-12 and 2013-14.

As of December 31, 2013, Assam had a Police-population ration of 173 per 100,000, significantly higher than the national average of 141, but lesser than all the other States of the Northeast. Given the ethnic, religious and territorial faultlines existing in the State, its strategic location with shared international borders with Bangladesh, Bhutan and inter-state boundaries with five other Northeastern states, and no strategy for closure of the multiple and enduring conflicts, a sufficiently numbered, better trained and equipped Police Force has become an urgent precondition to peace and development. The periodic rushing in of Central Forces in the aftermath of violent conflagrations, and the signing of peace agreements with various ethnic insurgents cannot provide any lasting solution to the protracted problems afflicting Assam.

The post India: Assam Assessment 2015 – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iceland has dropped its bid to join the European Union, the Foreign Ministry in Reykjavik says. The announcement follows pledges made by the country’s euro-skeptic government since winning the 2013 election.

Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, the Icelandic foreign minister, said in a statement that he had informed Latvia, the current EU president, and the European Commission that his center-right government had decided to withdraw its application, which was submitted six years ago.

“The EU and Iceland have discussed the country’s position on the status of its bid to join the European Union,” the statement reads. “The government does not intend to resume preparing for EU membership.”

Prime Minister Sigmundur Davið Gunnlaugsson talked of formally withdrawing the bid in January.

“Participating in EU talks isn’t really valid anymore,” PM Gunnlaugsson told Reykjavík Grapevine at the time. “Both due to changes in the European Union and because it’s not in line with the policies of the ruling government to accept everything that the last government was willing to accept. Because of that, we’re back at square one.”

Iceland applied for EU membership in July 2009, at a time when the global economic crisis was unraveling. By February 2010, the European Commission produced a favorable answer and accession negotiations began in July the same year.

The negotiations came to a stalemate in April 2013, when the election in Iceland was won by the centrist Progress Party, and the conservative Independence Party. When Progress Party’s Gunnlaugsson became prime minister, he froze negotiations with the EU in May 2013.

One of the major issues stalling an agreement was fish catch quotas insisted on by Brussels, something the Icelandic Fishing industry would never have agreed to.

The small island nation, with a population of 325,000, is and will still be a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Schengen area and is an EU partner promoting cooperation in northern Europe – meaning it gets many of the advantages of being a full member without many of the negative aspects of centralized EU laws and planning.

If in the future Iceland decides to join the EU, this will be decided only by a referendum, the government said. Iceland will continue to comply with the terms of the EEA and to cooperate with the EU as it has done previously.

The post Iceland Revokes Bid To Join EU appeared first on Eurasia Review.