By Michael Lelyveld

Russia appears to be putting a brave face on its chances for a new gas deal with China as President Vladimir Putin prepares to visit Beijing this week.

Despite indications to the contrary, Russian officials have cited active engagement in talks with China on a western gas route to Xinjiang, as well as progress in building its first pipeline to the east under a contract valued at U.S. $400 billion (2.5 trillion yuan) last year.

Together, the two lines would eventually deliver 68 billion cubic meters (bcm) (2.4 trillion cubic feet) of gas annually to China, or 38 percent of the country’s consumption of the cleaner-burning fuel in 2014.

But work on the eastern route had barely begun this year before it ran into financial trouble, pushing Russia’s hopes for a second line further into the future.

Despite the challenges, Russia has continued to promote its prospects for another China gas deal.

Last month, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said agreements on a second gas route from the west could be ready for signing in time for Putin’s trip on Sept. 3 to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

“If it’s ready, the visit will certainly be a good opportunity for concluding this transaction,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on July 29, according to Interfax.

In May, Russia’s Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) signed a memorandum of understanding on basic conditions for the western line, but negotiations on prices started only in the past month.

Last week, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller continued his push for a new contract at meetings with CNPC’s chairman Wang Yilin and Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli.

In a statement, Gazprom said negotiations “are steadily moving forward,” but the daily Kommersant cited industry sources calling it “part of the information campaign.”

Another preliminary accord

Analysts say Putin’s meeting with President Xi Jinping is unlikely to produce anything more than another preliminary accord, in part because of troubles with the contract for the eastern line to supply China’s industrialized northeast.

On Aug. 21, a Chinese official dampened hopes for a contract on the western line at the Xi-Putin meeting. A signing in September “is not obligatory, if one takes into account the regularity of the two leaders’ meetings,” said Ling Ji, Ministry of Commerce director for Eurasian affairs.

Ling instead stressed the importance of implementing the contract for the eastern route, noting that the plunge in oil prices had complicated negotiations “to a considerable degree,” Interfax reported.

At a press conference in Beijing last week, Russian Ambassador Andrei Denisov voiced confidence that a new gas deal would be signed “at the last minute” along with some 20 other agreements.

The western line through Russia’s mountainous Altai region would add 30 bcm of supplies annually to the 38 bcm already promised from the east.

While the Altai route has been a priority for Russia because of its ready resources in West Siberia, China has no need for more gas in remote Xinjiang.

Edward Chow, senior fellow for energy and national security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said preliminary agreements mean little to the Chinese side despite their apparent importance to Russia, as long as problems with the eastern route persist.

“They’re mainly being polite when the Russians bring up the western route,” Chow said. “It doesn’t mean that they’re sincerely and earnestly interested in the western route. Those are two different things.”

Analysts say conditions affecting Russia and the gas market have changed dramatically since the eastern pipeline deal was signed in May 2014.

“The world has completely flipped since then,” Chow said.

At the time, Russian reports estimated that the starting price for gas under the 30-year contract would be U.S. $350 (2,241 yuan per thousand cubic meters [mcm]), largely in line with Gazprom’s export prices for Europe.

Since then, oil-linked gas prices have plunged, putting pressure on Russia to renegotiate the contract.

Earlier this month, Gazprom lowered its forecast for this year’s average export price to U.S. $235-242 (1,505-1,550 yuan) per mcm, over 30 percent below China’s presumed starting price last year.

On Aug. 10, the London-based Financial Times reported that Gazprom had not negotiated a lower limit for price adjustments in case of a prolonged slump in the oil market, suggesting that gas rates could fall as low as $175 (1,120 yuan) per mcm.

That could leave Gazprom with huge losses on the eastern pipeline, known as the Power of Siberia project, which Putin estimated would cost U.S. $55 billion (352.2 billion yuan) for infrastructure on Russian territory.

An expected prepayment of U.S. $25 billion (160 billion yuan) from China to finance Russia’s construction never materialized, leaving Gazprom with few options at a time when Western sanctions over Ukraine have squeezed Russian finances.

Unwilling to bear risks

It is unclear whether China has delayed financing until Gazprom lowers its prices, but analysts believe China’s banks have been unwilling to bear Russian risks in any case.

“I think the eastern pipeline’s in some trouble,” said Mikkal Herberg, energy security research director at the Seattle-based National Bureau of Asian Research. Herberg cited reports that some of the limited work on the project has already stopped.

A second pipeline project may only add to Russia’s cost burdens.

“It’s hard for me to believe they would sign anything that would be called a contract for the western pipeline,” Herberg said.

The launch of the 3,247-kilometer (2,017-mile) Power of Siberia pipeline, initially expected under the contract by end-2018, has been pushed back by six months, the Russian daily Vedomosti reported.

An Interfax report suggested that deliveries might not start until mid-2021, “depending on whether the infrastructure is ready.”

Although Gazprom denies it has sought state funding for the Power of Siberia project, Putin has ordered the government to complete a plan by Sept. 1 to finance the costs.

Chow said there is still value in the ambitious project, which would open East Siberia for development, but state resources to cover losses are in short supply.

“Of course, the government can subsidize economically sub-optimal projects, but there’s a limit on what they can subsidize,” he said. “They can’t do everything they want to do.”

Western sanctions and Russia’s recession have spurred competition among oil companies and major industries for state funds that have been stretched thin.

China’s economic slowdown has also weakened the country’s gas demand growth, cutting deep into forecasts that underpinned Russia’s grand plans.

After years of double-digit growth rates, China’s gas consumption rose by only 2.1 percent in the first half of the year, according to official figures.

“Everything suggests slowing down fairly dramatically from what was expected,” Herberg said. “They’re having trouble marketing gas at the price they need to justify importing gas.”

Last week, Miller floated a new option, offering to boost gas supplies in the east with a pipeline from Russia’s Sakhalin Island projects in the Far East.

The latest scheme follows the failure of Russian plans to build costly new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants for the resources, now that world markets are awash with LNG supplies.

The heavy investments that China has already made in resources and pipelines from Central Asia are also likely to make imports from Turkmenistan a priority over Russian gas, but both sources may face demands to cut prices if oil continues to sink.

Despite the many challenges for Russia on the existing contract for the eastern project, it is expected to paper the way for Putin’s visit with another preliminary accord for the western line, if only to send a message to the European market that it can sell its gas to China instead.

But without major price concessions or a pickup in demand, Gazprom could be years away from signing a new contract.

“I think it’s going to be a meaningless agreement,” Chow said.

By John Heilprin

A Swiss federal commission is warning of a dangerous rise in hate speech stemming from debate over the nation’s immigration and asylum policies as federal elections near in October.

The Federal Commission against Racism said on Monday it finds “a hardening tone” and risk of increasing “stigmatising speech and hate messages” related to immigration and asylum policies that will play an important role in the October 18 general elections.

In a statement, the commission expressed concern about the political climate ahead of the election and said that “degrading and hateful remarks have no place in a democracy”. Switzerland has long debated whether asylum seekers represent an economic drain and threat to social stability, or a responsibility to help in keeping with the country’s humanitarian tradition.

Such worries are justified, according to Fabrizio Gilardi, a political science professor at the University of Zurich.

“I am concerned about the way certain parties make use of the crisis going on in different countries and the influx of asylum seekers, and I think it’s disgraceful to make use of what is a tragedy and really a humanitarian crisis for electoral purposes,” he told swissinfo.ch.
Europe’s crisis

With Europe facing its biggest migrant and refugee crisis in decades, much of it sparked by war and turmoil in the Middle East and Africa, debate has intensified within Switzerland over how much help it can and should lend others while maintaining its status as a safe, stable and prosperous democracy.

Over the weekend, news media reports carried the results of a survey showing that most Swiss feel it’s important to continue helping some of the hundreds of thousands of refugees trying to reach Western Europe through Mediterranean routes – but almost half think the country should close its borders, at least temporarily.

Swiss border police reportedly apprehended some 13,000 illegal migrants in 2015, nearly as many as the 14,265 that they apprehended during all of last year. Many other European countries have also faced tensions from the influx of migrants and refugees mainly from Syria, Iraq and North Africa.

At the same time, the number of legal foreign residents in Switzerland has increased to almost one quarter of the population.
Swiss monitoring

Created in 1995 to fight racism, anti-Semitism, xenophobia and right wing extremism, the commission has long attached particular importance to prevention, which is reflected in the commission’s warning statement.

It reminded politicians and political parties that although no subject is taboo in a democracy, they have a “responsibility to fight against the words and acts that could incite intolerance against people and the most vulnerable groups”.

With asylum and immigration playing a big part of the electoral campaign this autumn, it is “perfectly legitimate” for politicians and political parties to express their opinions and reactions to various ideas, the commission said.

“Unfortunately”, it continued, “this theme is not only the object of democratic debate; it also serves as a pretext for the spread of stigmatising words and writings in respect of people who feel threatened in their existence and seek, in Switzerland or elsewhere, a place of refuge.”

Americans got a glimpse of what policing is like in a more humane and civilized society last year when four young Swedish cops, on vacation in New York City and riding on a subway, found themselves faced with a bloody fight in the aisle by two angry black men.

A subway car full of New Yorkers watched in stunned disbelief as the four Scandinavian cops, all in civvies and unarmed, leapt into action. They used non-lethal techniques to pin the two combatants without hurting either one and then began trying to talk them down, calmly, never raising their voices, and avoiding any swearing or verbal abuse. Neither man was hit by any of the officers despite their struggling. As the Swedish cops waited for New York’s Finest to arrive, they gently rubbed and patted the distressed captives and spoke to them reassuringly.

It was not the way that situation would likely have gone down had it been four off-duty New York cops in that car. First of all, they would almost certainly have had guns on them. Second, they would have been shouting and upping the tension level. Third, they might well have applied chokeholds instead of arm restraints, and would have had the men pinned face down, with knees in their backs. Quite possibly punches would have been thrown along with kicks and stomping in a gang-banging frenzy. Given the history of prior such incidents, it’s conceivable that shots might even have been fired, and that passengers could have been hit by stray police bullets (as happened in a Times Square incident not long ago). One or both of the fighters might well have been injured or even killed.

Instead a violent incident was peacefully halted…incredibly with nobody hurt.

That’s how policing is done in much of Europe, where police shootings are almost unheard of. It’s how it should be done here.

But the whole concept of policing in the US is quite different from what prevails in most democratic countries. For one thing, abroad police are not ubiquitous in most places. I was in Finland, Austria and southern Germany last year, as well as in Quebec, and it’s actually hard to find a cop in any of those places when you’re looking for one. I walked for two hours in Montreal and didn’t see a single police officer, on foot or in a patrol car. Not so in New York, Philadelphia, Boston or even my local community of Upper Dublin, PA, where it’s easy to pass two or three cop cars just while driving the three miles between my house and the train station.

America is infested with police, and instead of responding to emergencies, they spend a lot of their time, from what I can observe, just looking for things to bust people for. Laws that can get people arrested have proliferated over the past few decades so fast that today most of us are probably breaking laws every day that we don’t even know are on the books. This country is so over-policed that departments are thinking up ways to keep busy by spying on us, and they’re using tax money and confiscated cash to buy fancy new toys, from “Stingray” mobile phone taps to drones (including armed drones), that will help them do it.

But it’s not just that. Cities and communities are hiring people as police officers who are not fit to be public servants. Many are bullies and have mental problems that lead them to resort to violent confrontation instead of negotiated solutions. They are also people who tend to turn quickly to using a gun or a taser when they feel threatened or even disrespected.

Think about the other major category of uniformed public employee: firefighters. Here we have people who have signed up, and often literally volunteered to do probably the most dangerous job that a person can do: running into burning buildings that could collapse at any moment in order to rescue someone who might be in there, and if so, might still be alive.

I witnessed this kind of action once when I lived in an apartment in New York. We lived on the 11th floor of a large fireproof building of 17 stories. One day, there was an alarm and fire trucks rushed onto the street. Looking out my living window, I saw thick black smoke and flames pouring out of an apartment about five stories below and to the right of mine. Fire fighters were rushing into the front door of the building.

I raced down the stairs to the floor of the fire, and went into the hall, rushing down to the door of the burning apartment, which was metal, but had paint blistering paint on it from the heat of the fire inside. At that moment two firefighters — both large men in full gear with compressed air tanks on their backs and cans of fire retardant in hand came around the corner after having climbed the stairs. They told me to get away, and then walked up to the door. Without even stopping to think — or say a prayer — one guy just kicked hard on the door and busted it wide open. Smoke, flames and heat roared out at them and yet, to my astonishment, they just rushed in together into that inferno.

As it turned out, nobody was in the two-room apartment, and the two men came back out. The fire was extinguished with hoses that sprayed in through the windows from the outside and it was quickly all over.

I’ve thought about that incident over the years, and especially lately as we see case after case of police officers shooting unarmed young men and women (and sometimes young kids), claiming their actions were justified because they “felt threatened.”

Those two firemen certainly had to have “felt threatened” as they contemplated, however briefly, busting down that door with its bubbling paint and then rushed into the darkness and smoke of the apartment in search of someone in need of rescuing. Yet they didn’t hold back and wait for the trucks outside to douse the fire. They went in.

Why are firefighters willing to put their lives at risk to save people (even black ones!), while so many cops, with their body armor and their guns, are so quick to shoot to kill people that they imagine might be intending to harm them? Why do we as a society expect our firefighters to put their lives on the line to save us without a thought for themselves, but just shrug when cops, instead of putting their lives on the line to defuse situations involving drunken or mentally ill, or otherwise disturbed or possibly suicidal people, just take out their guns and blow such people away?

I’m not saying that there may not be cases where a police officer has no alternative but to shoot someone (although shoot-to-kill policies in place at most departments are an outrage that makes such killings much more likely), and I’m not saying that there aren’t cops who have the same courage and compassion as firefighters, but most of the cases we’re seeing lately are showing the opposite. Shooting a fleeing man in the back, as happened in Charleston South Carolina, or choking a man to death for being uncooperative during a bust for selling cigarettes illegally, or driving up to a 12-year-old kid with a toy gun who is sitting calmly on a park bench and shooting him immediately upon exiting the car, or tossing a stun grenade through a window into a house with kids in it and killing a baby are not examples of restraint or even of a willingness to take risk to save others’ lives.

If killer cops like these were firefighters, they’d be fired the first day out on the job because they’d be the cowardly ones refusing to go into burning apartments or houses to rescue people crying for assistance.

It seems clear to me that the problem with police in America is not going to be solved by requiring body-cams or by requiring independent prosecutors to investigate police shootings and seriously prosecuting questionable shootings and abuse. Nor is it going to be solved by hiring more minority and women cops, or by requiring racial sensitivity training. What we need is a wholesale revamping of concept of policing, and a re-evaluation of why we need police in the first place. Whatever we do, it’s clear that we need a whole lot fewer cops, and a whole lot less firepower in the hands of the ones we do have, too.

Two weekends ago I was just driving through the upstate town of Walton in New York, where there was a county fair underway. A guy, clearly a part-time or off-duty cop judging by his unruly facial hair, was directing traffic to the fairground on Main Street. He was dressed in civilian clothes, with a yellow reflecting vest that said “Police”. Although he was simply directing traffic, he had a pistol holstered prominently on his belt.

I found myself wondering, “Why in the hell does this guy need a gun to direct traffic?” And indeed, in Europe or the UK he would not have been wearing one. Because he was packing though, if there were some incident involving a driver doing something wrong, and if that incident involved a black driver, the gun could easily have come into play. That’s just nuts, but it’s the norm in the US. We need to change that.

American police may sometimes display the phrase “Protect and Serve” on the side of their patrol cars, but for the most part, that is not what they do. They are “law enforcement.” The connotation of that term is something completely different from protecting and serving. Someone who protects and serves talks politely, and acts like a servant of the public. Someone who “enforces” is inherently oppositional, which is why we Americans are expected to say “yes sir” and “no sir” to police when they stop us. Argue with a cop in America and you’re looking for trouble…or worse. Run and, especially if you’re not white, you may well be shot or tased. (Hell, I’m a 66-year-old white guy and I was recently threatened with arrest by a thuggish young cop if I continued trying to hitch-hike after he, incorrectly, informed me that it was illegal in Pennsylvania and ordered me to stop.)

What we need is to have the same kind of people who apply to be firefighters applying to be cops — people who are ready to put their own lives on the line to save others’ lives, not to take them.

We need real heroes and real public servants, in other words, and not overlords, bullies and thugs who want to strut their guns, tasers, clubs, fists and cuffs.

If we had cops who were more like firefighters, we wouldn’t be talking about requiring them to wear bodycams.

The crisis of leadership throughout Palestinian history did not start with Mahmoud Abbas and will, regrettably, be unlikely to end with his departure.
Abbas’ unforeseen announcement on Aug. 27 that he, along with a few others, will resign from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee and his call for an emergency session of the Palestine National Council (PNC) is a testament to his poor management. More, it shows his utter disregard for the required threshold of responsible leadership.

Now, at the age of 80, Abbas is obviously concerned about his legacy, the fate of the PLO and his Palestinian Authority (PA), once he is gone. Whatever political maneuvering he has planned for the future (including the selection of new Executive Committee members, which will be overseen by him and by his allies) is hardly encouraging. According to the Unity deal signed between Abbas’ faction, Fatah and Hamas, the restructuring of the PLO as a pre-requisite to include both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in one unifying and relatively representative Palestinian body was a top priority.

Well, not anymore. Hamas is furious with Abbas’ call for reconvening the PNC, a two-day session scheduled to be held in Ramallah, West Bank next month. The Gaza-headquartered Movement is calling on Palestinian factions not to participate. Either way, further Palestinian disunity is assured.

Now that unity remains elusive, Hamas is seeking its own alternatives to breaking the Gaza siege by conducting what is being described as “indirect talks” with Israel, via the notorious former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The latter has reportedly met Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal on more than one occasion. The discussions included a long-term cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in exchange for the permission of a safe sea passage where Palestinians in Gaza can enjoy a degree of freedom.

Needless to say, if the reports regarding Blair’s role in the indirect negotiations and Hamas’ intentions are accurate, it would indeed be a great folly. On the one hand, Blair’s pro-Israel record disqualifies him from the role of any honest mediation. On the other, resistance or truce is not a political decision to be determined by a single faction, no matter how great its sacrifices or how trustworthy its intentions.

In addition, Abbas is in no position to criticize Hamas for its talks with Blair. It is particularly disingenuous that Abbas and his party are accusing Hamas of flouting Palestinian unity and consensus, while both — Abbas and Fatah — have contributed to Palestine’s political afflictions more than any other leader or faction in the past. In fact, while Gaza subsisted and suffered terribly under a protracted Israeli siege and successive wars, Abbas operated his PA outfit in Ramallah with the full consent of the Israeli government. The so-called “security coordination,” chiefly aimed at crushing Palestinian Resistance in the West Bank, continued unabated.

This is what Israeli political commentator Raviv Drucker wrote in Haaretz in an article that reprimanded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for failing to appreciate the value of Abbas:

“Our greatest high-tech geniuses working in the most sophisticated laboratories could not invent a more comfortable Palestinian partner. A leader with no one to the left of him in the Palestinian political arena and one who, when his enemy, Israel, bombs his people in Gaza, comes out with a statement criticizing those who kidnap Israeli soldiers.”

Abbas has shown little compassion for Gaza. Neither has he demonstrated any respect for the Palestinian people nor has he invested sincere efforts aimed at making Palestinian unity his top priority. It is rather telling that he is activating the PNC, summoning its nearly 700 members, not to discuss the intensifying Palestinian crises — from Gaza to Jerusalem to Yarmouk — but rather to concoct another cozy arrangement for him and his cronies. Yet, this crisis of leadership precedes Abbas.

The PNC’s first meeting was held in Jerusalem in 1964. Since then and for years now, despite the parliament’s many flaws, it serves an important mission. It was a platform for Palestinian political dialogue; and, over the years, it helped define Palestinian national identity and priorities. But gradually, starting with Arafat’s elections as the head of the PLO in February 1969, the PNC ceased being a parliament, and became, more or less, a political rubber stamp that validated all decisions made by Arafat’s PLO and, specifically, his Fatah faction.

This has been highlighted repeatedly throughout history with several prominent examples:

On Nov. 12, 1988 the PNC convened in Algiers to approve of a political strategy based on UN Resolutions 242 and 338, the habitual US condition for engaging the PLO. At the end of deliberation and, based on that approval, Arafat announced an independent Palestinian State, to be established in the Occupied Territories, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Despite this, the US still argued that the PNC statement did not qualify for an “unconditional” acceptance of Resolution 242, hence pressing Arafat for more concessions. Arafat flew to Geneva and addressed the UN General Assembly on Dec. 13, 1988, since the US refused to grant him an entry visa to speak at the UN Headquarters in New York. He labored to be even more specific.

However, the US maintained its position, compelling Arafat, on the next day, to reiterate the same previous statements, this time, explicitly renouncing “all forms of terrorism, including individual, group or state terrorism.”

But unlike Arafat’s misuse of democracy and manipulation of the PNC — which is no longer representative or, with its current factional makeup is, frankly, irrelevant — Abbas’ game is even more dangerous.

Arafat used the Council to ratify or push his own agenda, which he mistakenly deemed suitable for Palestinian interests. Abbas’ agenda, however, is entirely personal, entirely elitist and entirely corrupt. Worse, it comes at a time when Palestinian unity is not just a matter of smart strategy, but is critical in the face of the conceivable collapse of the entire Palestinian national project.

There is no doubt that the moment when Abbas exits the scene has arrived. That could either become a transition into yet another sorry legacy of an undemocratic Palestinian leadership or it could serve as an opportunity for Palestinians, fed up with the endemic corruption, political tribalism and across-the-board failure, to step forward and challenge the moral collapse of the Palestinian Authority and the charade of self-serving “democracy” of factions and individuals.

By Frederick B. Mills and William Camacaro*

On July 13, 2015, President Nicolas Maduro launched an ambitious campaign to fight organized crime (the Operation to Liberate and Protect the People–OLP) in the most seriously impacted states of the country. Over the past week, as a critical phase of this campaign, Venezuela has moved to take control over its notoriously porous border with Colombia in Táchira State, seriously disrupting the routine but illicit trade in contraband goods coming from Venezuela that has fueled a parallel economy in Colombia. This illicit trade, however, as well as manipulating currency exchange practices in the frontier area, has been generating some of the commodity shortages as well as the depreciation of the bolivar fuerte suffered by consumers in Venezuela. This is not a new issue. The crime and contraband problem along the border had been brewing for more than a decade. Moreover, a growing public outcry calling for decisive action to address both public security concerns and persistent commodity shortages has become particularly intense over the past two years and now threatens to derail the Bolivarian project ahead of the December 2015 legislative elections. Maduro had to either take decisive action or preside over the demise of the revolution.

This essay argues that there is a direct relationship between a significant part of the shortages of basic goods in Venezuela and the parallel economy in Colombia that is fueled by contraband goods smuggled out of Venezuela. This relationship, moreover, is unsustainable for the Venezuelan side and is a poor substitute for legitimate employment on the Colombian side. Though recent stepped up interdiction efforts over the past year have been intercepting contraband on a routine basis, the movement of subsidized goods out of Venezuela nevertheless has been unrelenting. Even the current operation, however, is only a temporarily fix; it will take cooperation between Bogotá and Caracas on security, economic, and social matters along their common frontier to bring about a satisfactory resolution of this issue.

The Security Front

On the security front, Caracas maintains that the smuggling of contraband out of Venezuela for sale in Colombia is not being suppressed with any vigor on the Colombian side. Some of these operations feed networks in Colombia that are even quasi-legal, and thus some analysts suggest that the continued existence of at least part of the parallel economy informs state policy in Colombia.

To make matters worse, the parallel economy in Colombia has involved, to some degree, paramilitary and other criminal elements who have infiltrated Venezuela through the frontier area over the past decade, as well as sectors of the poor and those displaced by the armed conflict, some of whom form the ranks of lower level operatives of this informal economy. It also has depended upon the collaboration of easily encountered corrupt public officials on the Venezuelan side who have looked the other way for a price or otherwise collaborated with the smuggling networks.

President Maduro first ordered the border with Colombia in Táchira State closed for 72 hours last Wednesday night, after an attack by assailants that wounded three plain clothes members of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) and one civilian during anti-contraband operations in the city of San Antonio. The Venezuelan government alleges that the attack was carried out by paramilitary elements from Colombia, some of whom have reportedly been arrested and identified.

On August 21, after alleging the involvement of paramilitary elements in the attack in San Antonio, Maduro ordered the border closed for 60 days (renewable for another 60 days). Caracas has so far deployed over 4500 security forces and declared a state of exception in the municipalities of Bolívar, Ureña, Junín, Libertad and Independencia (August 24), adding the towns of Lobatera, Ayacucho, García de Hevia and Panamericano four days later (August 28). By August 29, 250 inspections had been conducted and 70 tons of contraband were reportedly intercepted by Venezuelan authorities. After just one week, the OLP campaign in Táchira State is already having profound economic and social impacts in frontier municipalities on both sides of the border.

The Maduro administration’s account of the incident is not farfetched, as this frontier area has been notorious for the infiltration of Colombian paramilitary elements, such as the Águilas Negras, into Venezuela, particularly subsequent to their demobilization by the Uribe administration in 2003 through the “Justice and Peace Law.” In a special report from Táchira (Las Águilas Negras volaron a Venezuela. El Espectador, 31 Jan. 2009), Enrique Rivas G. reported that the power of such groups “has reached a point where in the frontier area they manage kidnappings; gasoline contraband . . . narco-trafficking and the theft of vehicles.”

According to Amnesty International, demobilization of paramilitary groups in Colombia has not generally translated into a cessation of criminal activities, in part, due to prior neglect of the issue by the central government:

“The collusion of sectors of the state apparatus, and some of those in business and politics, with paramilitary groups, and to a lesser extent with guerrilla groups and drugs-related organized crime, continues to pose a serious threat to the rule of law. The most glaring missed opportunity in this respect has been the failure to effectively deal with the noxious phenomenon of paramilitarism.”

It is for these reasons that the Maduro administration has made combatting paramilitarism a top priority of its OLP campaign not only along its border with Colombia, but anywhere else in Venezuela that their presence is to be found.

The Economic War

Manipulation of Currencies

Perhaps one of the most difficult areas for Caracas to tackle is the manipulation of the bolivar fuerte at currency exchange counters in Maicao, (a small town in the Colombian Guajira) and other towns along the frontier, a practice that appears to take place with the full knowledge of Colombian authorities as well as those banks that enable electronic transfers to facilitate some of the transactions. In one scheme, what is being exchanged is bolivares for bolivares! A report published by Panorama on February 9, 2015 explains in detail how customers with banknotes from the Colombian Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela), with a denomination of 100 bolívares fuerte, can sell these bills at the currency exchange counters for 140 bolivares each (paid with bills of smaller denominations) and return to Venezuela with 40 percent profit for each 100-bolivares bill sold. The money changers or their associates can then repatriate the 100-bolivares bills to Venezuela in order to carry the more physically (in terms of weight and volume) convenient load of currency (no small bills) and purchase contraband goods of all sorts in Venezuela for later sale in Colombia. The 40 percent premium paid is no big deal because the sale of the subsidized Venezuelan goods can garner up to 1,000 percent profit on the Colombian side of the border. Since the money changers can also pay the $40 premium by means of electronic bank transfer, collaborating banks in both countries that are cognizant of these transactions are frequently integral parts of the money making process. The gold rush seems to be contagious, for there are now reports of a scarcity of 100-bolivares banknotes in Venezuela. Not even Garcia Marquez could have thought of such a surreal plot for a novela.

The currency exchange counters not only pay a premium for 100-bolivares bills, but sell bolivares at a deep discount compared to the official exchange rate for the Colombian peso. Sociologist and journalist Franco Vielma, speaking about this scheme on the radio show “El Tren de la Tarde” transmitted by La Radio Del Sur on May 15, 2015, describes the transaction:

“There is an official exchange rate expected by the Colombian Central Bank for the bolívar in relation to the peso, but along the frontier, in Cúcuta, and according to Dolar Today, there is different rate. Today one pays up to 225 pesos for one bolívar [according to the rate expected by the Colombian Central Bank], while along on the frontier the rate is around 8 pesos per bolívar.”

This sale of bolivares at absurdly low discounts depreciates the bolivar, making it cheaper to subsequently buy contraband goods in Venezuela with the deeply discounted, or rather deliberately depreciated bolivares. There is arguably no invisible hand at work here. This is not a matter of a determination of the price of a currency by supply and demand but of deliberate manipulation of currency values. In Venezuela, it is not uncommon for pro-government analysts to refer to such manipulation of currency as a feature of an “economic war” against Caracas or one of the many expressions of “speculative capitalism”. For Vielma, the “big question” is whether Colombian authorities are prepared to put the brakes on this situation. If not, Vielma said, “one has to admit that this government of Juan Manuel Santos is aware of the game and is responsible for it (es artífice de ella).”

According to Venezuelan economist Luís Salas Rodriguez, this scheme is actually legal in Colombia. “The currency exchange counters of Cúcuta–the majority of them at least–are not illegal. On the contrary, the type of exchange that they establish against the bolivar is manipulated to favor contraband and this is an act of war against our currency and against our economy; it enjoys the permissiveness of the Central Bank of the Republic of Colombia by means of the decree number 8 of the year 2000. That decree authorizes them to set their own [the currency counters of Cúcuta] exchange rate, which is what then drives down the official exchange rate of the Bank of the Republic of Colombia.”

There is a clear link between currency manipulation and the proliferation of contraband. These forms of manipulation facilitate the purchase of contraband and add to its profitability, and the profits in turn are reinvested in the currency exchange process. The vicious circle also negatively impacts the Venezuelan economy.

Smuggling Operations Fuel Colombian Parallel Economy

Some of the smuggling operations service businesses in Colombia that have a quasi-legal or perhaps even a legal status on the Colombian side of the border. For example, Daniel Salgar Antolínez in a report for Colombian newspaper El Espectador, interviewed José Abel Correa, president of the union of pimpineros (small time gasoline vendors), Sintragasolina. Correa explains:

“On different occasions during the administration of Sergio Entrena as governor of North Santander, one paid a tax in order to sell contraband fuel. Under the government of Ramiro Suárez as mayor of Cúcuta, in 2000, there was also a tax for every pimpina [container] sold. In this way [selling contraband fuel] was legalized.” “Our union organization is 100 percent  legal and forms part of the Confederación General del Trabajo.”

According to Correa, there has been a shortage of gasoline as a result of the closure of the frontier. He argues that this will cause an increase in unemployment in the area. This makes sense considering that, according to Correa, there are 30,000 pimpineros in the frontier region! “The pimpineros, that normally fill the streets of the city (North Santander) selling Venezuelan fuel, are hardly seen these days.” The few who are seen selling gasoline, says Correa, are now charging exorbitant prices.

There also appears to be big operators involved in the sale of contraband Venezuelan fuel. In February 2015, the President of PDVSA (the Venezuelan State Oil Company) Eulogio del Pino, pointed out that “on a daily basis about 100,000 barrels of fuel leaves [Venezuela] as contraband.” As Franco Vielma points out, in terms of liters (with a barrel equal to 159 liters) “we are talking about the extraordinary hemorrhaging of 15,900,000 liters of gasoline per day, based on estimates from the month of February.” “Basically” adds Vielma, “if 60,000 barrels a day leaves Zulia per day [as contraband], the calculations suggest that the daily losses in the region oscillate around 5.2 million dollars, while the annual amount ascends to approximately 1.9 billion dollars.” Given the fall in the price per barrel of Venezuelan oil, it is more important than ever to recuperate these losses.

According to engineer and petroleum expert David Paravisini, not all of the contraband fuel can be absorbed by the pimpineros, who sell gasoline in small quantities. A significant amount of this fuel, he maintains, is appropriated by large oil concerns that resell the fuel under their own brand. For example, “Ecopetrol” says Paravisini, “sells Venezuelan gasoline that enters through contraband” and some of this fuel is even marketed to third countries.

Although Caracas wants to see an end to the parallel economy that is parasitic on Venezuelan regulated commodities, there is not likely to be much enthusiasm for such a radical transformation among the Uribistas and the Santos Administration in Bogotá. For the damage done to the Venezuelan economy advances a long term right wing agenda on both sides of the border to undermine the Bolivarian revolution and restore the neoliberal regime.

Impact of the OLP in Táchira State

First Impressions

The prima facie evidence for the direct relationship between the parallel economy in Colombia and shortages in Venezuela became manifest within days of the border closure. Six days after the operation, there had been reports of the appearance of some of the items on store shelves that had previously been in short supply as well as cessation of some of the long lines that had afflicted shoppers at stores in frontier towns on the Venezuelan side of the border in Táchira State.

On the Colombian side, there have been reports of mounting price increases for goods in Cúcuta (capital of the Province of Santander), where there are streets lined with informal vendors stocked with contraband. Since an estimated 80 percent of commerce in Cúcuta depends on the contraband from Venezuela, the price increases are of little surprise. Moreover, videos have also been posted by news media showing persons in long lines of vehicles in Cúcuta waiting for gasoline, a product that has become immediately scarce on account of the seizure of illicit barrels of fuel en route from Venezuela to Colombia. Knowing that they cannot at this time easily cross the closed and guarded border with contraband goods, many bachaqueros (small time smugglers) as well as larger operators do not even try.

This OLP action has so far reportedly resulted in the deportation of more than a thousand undocumented Colombians (with between five to six thousand leaving voluntarily, avoiding possible formal deportation); the dismantling of a bordello that was sexually exploiting children; the arrest of a dozen alleged paramilitaries; the discovery of a house used for explosive production ; the discovery of underground rooms apparently used for kidnappings; and the curtailment of the illicit diversion of thousands of tons of food, thousands of barrels of gasoline and other commodities that had been routinely transported daily, by foot, motorcycles, cars and trucks, from Táchira into the frontier towns of Colombia.

The Colombian Response

These unilateral Venezuelan operations have not gone over well in Bogotá. On August 26, six days after the border closure, at a forum that included ex-presidents of Costa Rica, Laura Chinchilla, of México, Vicente Fox ,and of Chile, Ricardo Lagos, organized by the University of Los Andes in Bogotá, President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos declared, “The problems of Venezuela are made in Venezuela; they are not made in Colombia or in any other part of the world.” Santos added “I respect the model of Venezuela with regard to the economy and they should respect the model that we have.”

The problem with this mystification by President Santos is that the two economies, a parallel economy in Colombia dependent on Venezuelan contraband goods, and socialism under construction in Venezuela which regulates the cost of the food basket, gasoline, and other basic goods, are in fact related, and one dimension of that relationship is intrinsically antagonistic. In particular, Santos’s statements gloss over the direct relationship between the role of contraband used for commerce in the frontier towns and beyond on the Colombian side of the border, and commodity shortages and illegal smuggling operations on the Venezuelan side. Venezuelan authorities estimate that 30 percent of Venezuelan foodstuffs ended up as contraband in Colombia last year by means of the diversion of commodities available at regulated prices in Venezuela to informal markets in Colombia where smugglers (Colombian and Venezuelan), criminal gangs, and both licit and illicit businesses resell the goods at much higher prices.

In contrast to Santos’s mystifying statements (above), Colombian Foreign Minister María Ángela Holguín has acknowledged (August 13) that “effectively, the shortages in Venezuela have a lot to do with the contraband that is passing into Colombia.” “The large part of the problem is that when you subsidize all of the food products and the country on the other side does not subsidize, then logically there will be contraband (…) and its is very difficult to control and that obviously that is what we are trying to do.” While it is true that cheap Venezuelan gasoline and subsidized prices on basic goods provides big incentives for smugglers of contraband, Caracas has maintained that despite occasional agreements between the two nations to deal with the border issue, the Colombian side has not made any serious effort to curtail the flow of contraband, shut down the offending currency exchange counters, or rein in the paramilitary presence in the frontier area.

The Maduro administration’s anti-crime campaign has triggered charges by Colombian officials of xenophobia against Colombians, violations of human rights, and the creation of a humanitarian crisis. Ex-president of Colombia Álvaro Uribe described the deportations as “genocide” and compared Maduro’s actions to that of Hitler. So far the government has deported more than a thousand undocumented Colombians from Táchira, with estimates of between five and six thousand more leaving voluntarily in the face of the OLP campaign.

The Venezuelan side has argued that it is taking every reasonable measure to ensure the protection of the rights of the deportees, though testimonials and photos of destitute Colombians at shelters in Cúcuta show undeniable hardship. In an area that offers the poor few employment options, the low level smugglers are themselves victims of the parallel economy because this economy only exists in place of an alternative viable economic model that would be able to place meeting human needs above the interests of private accumulation and speculation. Speaking on behalf of the pimpineros, José Abel Correa, president of the union Sintragasolina, said: “we are a vulnerable population without government guarantees. Poor people looking to survive, working hard, ending up being the visible face of the big mafias.”

President Santos, in response to the humanitarian concerns, has promised to assist deported Colombians with employment, housing, and healthcare, and to ensure the matriculation of children in schools. This is a good thing. But it is important to note that in Cúcuta the poverty for 2014 was  33.1 percent. These provisions are arguably social rights, however, that ought not be provided only on a contingent and emergency basis but rather should be available to all Colombians, including those displaced by the armed conflict or evicted by the banks.

Venezuelan authorities argue that far from being xenophobic, an estimated 5 million Colombians (15 percent of the total population) reside in Venezuela, and many are receiving social benefits that were not available to them in their home country. According to Venezuelan ombudsman Tarek William Saab, 25 percent of the 700,000 homes provided by the housing mission have been allotted to Colombian immigrants. Maduro and other government officials are making an effort to debunk claims of prejudice against Colombians by emphasizing the friendship and historic links between the peoples of the two nations.

Bogotá and Caracas Turn to UNASUR for Mediation

On August 27, just a day after what had appeared to be constructive talks between the foreign ministers of Colombia and Venezuela, the adversarial rhetoric is once again heating up, as first Bogotá, then Caracas recalled their ambassadors for consultations and now prepare to take their cases to the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) for mediation. President Maduro has suggested that a delegation be formed to visit the border areas so delegates could see for themselves what is happening there.

The US State Department has issued a statement (August 29) urging a diplomatic solution to the “Colombia–Venezuela Border Dispute” and urging “special attention be paid to the worsening humanitarian situation along the frontier” while recognizing “the importance of secure borders and safe and orderly migration.” It is unlikely, however, that Washington will be able to play any critical role in the imminent diplomacy, since along with its Colombian allies, it has staunchly supported the Venezuelan counter revolution and omitted, in the press release, mention of the serious humanitarian concerns raised by the status quo in the frontier region.

While the Colombian government projects the image of being victimized by the OLP campaign in Táchira, it generally omits any denunciation of the paramilitary presence in the frontier region. In a break with the silence on this issue, Colombian Senator Ivan Cepeda Castro (Polo Democratico Alternativo), in a plenary session of the Senate on August 25, said “We strongly reject the exportation of paramilitarism to other countries. This is an act that is real and about which our government has guarded a grave silence.” Cepeda, who has criticized, on twitter, the treatment of Colombians by Venezuelan authorities, also called for a binational dialogue and urged that “the attention to the deported persons from Venezuela ought to be a priority, to ensure their housing and provide for their necessities is urgent.”

The Venezuelan right wing opposition coalition, The United Democratic Roundtable (MUD) has also weighed in against the OLP actions in Táchira. The Executive Secretary of the MUD, Jesus “Chuo” Torrealba tweeted on August 28 “After deporting more than a thousand humble Colombians, and after attacking thousands of Venezuelans, Maduro says ‘I believe in diplomatic methods…’” While attention to the well being of deportees is indeed legitimate, it is notable that the MUD as well as Bogotá, have omitted any strong denunciation of paramilitarism and the deliberate assault on the Venezuelan economy.

Maduro has calculated that the majority of Venezuelans and Colombian immigrants will back the OLP campaigns. During a mass demonstration in Caracas against paramilitarism on August 28, the President appealed to Venezuelans as well as Colombian immigrants to take a stand against paramilitarism and to defend the OLP and the right to live in peace. Maduro has committed to keeping the border with Táchira State closed until Colombia enforces the law on its side of the border. Given the dependence of Colombia’s parallel economy and collaborating networks in Venezuela on contraband coming from Venezuela, however, this is a tall order, but one that is an urgently necessary part of Maduro’s bid to recuperate the Venezuelan economy.

As this article goes to press, a meeting is being held at the Organization of American States to discuss the Colombian–Venezuelan border issue.

Note: Translations by the authors from Spanish to English are unofficial.

*Frederick B. Mills, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and Professor of Philosophy at Bowie State Univeristy. William Camacaro, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and Radio Producer at WBAI Pacifica Radio Network, New York.

The Burmese election commission should immediately revoke new regulations that prohibit political parties and candidates from criticizing the Burmese military and the constitution on state media, Human Rights Watch said Monday. Curtailing discussion of issues fundamental to Burma’s future violates the right to free expression and deprives the public of the right to information and the ability to debate key issues, which is a central purpose of democratic elections.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) announced on August 29, 2015, that policy statements by political parties ahead of the November 8 polls would be limited to 15 minutes on state-controlled radio and television and then republished in state-controlled newspapers, and could not criticize the Tatmadaw (armed forces) or the 2008 constitution. The constitution was passed in a rigged referendum controlled by the military. The UEC and Ministry of Information will vet all statements and ensure no language is included “that can split the Tatmadaw or that can disgrace and damage the dignity of the Tatmadaw.”

“The role of the military and possibly amending the constitution are central issues in the upcoming election,” said Brad Adams, Asia director. “A gag order on criticizing the military and the constitution shows the army’s lack of commitment to democracy. This throwback to the days of military dictatorship reveals the dangerous collusion between the armed forces and the election commission.”

The new order undermines the Code of Conduct for Political Parties and Candidates, which was drafted in consultation with several political parties and signed on June 26 by 67 parties (out of an estimated 90 fielding candidates). It states that all parties will respect the rights of others to “present their ideas, basic principles, and political agendas; to have free access to mass media for political canvassing; and to publish and distribute their electoral documents and materials without hindrance, intimidation or coercion, as set out in existing laws or regulations.”

The UEC prohibition on criticism of the military in state media comes after members of parliament (MPs) and others have increasingly spoken out against the military’s attempts to block proposed amendments to the constitution. In parliamentary debates in June, 61 percent of MPs in the national assembly voted to amend section 436(a) of the constitution, which requires that amendments to key provisions in the constitution be first supported by 75 percent of MPs, and then by over half of eligible voters in a nationwide referendum. Through the constitution, the military has guaranteed itself 25 percent of seats in the parliament, giving it an effective veto over amendments, including any that could dilute its power.

In July several student activists who publicly decried the military’s de facto veto power were arrested and now face charges of unlawful assembly.

“While Burmese leaders and foreign supporters are touting the elections as evidence of real progress in Burma, the military is moving to curb speech necessary for free and fair elections,” Adams said. “An accurate measure of the military’s commitment to democratic reform is in its continued intimidation of opposition political parties, dissident students, and outspoken journalists. The army is showing it still has strong authoritarian instincts that could undermine the legitimacy of the elections.”

The UEC statement renews longstanding concerns over the independence of the commission and its chairman, former Army General Tin Aye. In a June 2015 media interview, he said that he wanted to see the ruling party, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDA), win the elections, but “win fairly.” On March 27, during the annual Armed Forces Day parade in the capital, Naypyidaw, Tin Aye wore his military uniform during the ceremony, saying:

I would give up my life to wear my uniform. I wear it because I want to. That’s why I wear it even if I have to quit [the UEC] because of that. But there is no law saying I should resign for wearing [my] uniform.

Election observers say that despite its clear biases, the UEC has taken some positive steps, including voter education, the displaying of updated voter lists of an estimated 31 million voters throughout Burma, and the drafting of codes of conduct for political parties and domestic monitors. Some 16,000 domestic observers are expected to take part on polling day. However, the UEC leadership is dominated by former officials of the military-controlled government and senior military officers, calling into question its independence from the government. The 2008 constitution mandates that the armed forces fill three key cabinet portfolios including the Ministry of Home Affairs and its General Administration Department, which plays a key role in the elections. Senior UEC officials also routinely change directives at the last minute, creating confusion among many election-related organizations.

UEC media guidelines issued in early August proposed restrictions on Burmese media outlets, including a quota on journalists per township. These were reportedly scrapped after talks between the UEC and the nongovernmental Burmese Interim Press Council. Restrictions on foreign journalists have yet to be made public by the UEC and the Ministry of Information. There are increased concerns in the lead-up to the election about state intimidation and harassment of the media, with several journalists still in prison for reporting on military issues. The case of Par Kyi, a Burmese freelance reporter shot and killed by the military in October 2014, is still not resolved, despite military and judicial investigations.

“International donors to Burma’s elections should be expressing public concern over the election commission’s bias in favor of the military and its censorship of criticism,” Adams said. “Elections should be an occasion for more political speech, not less. These kinds of rules have no place in an electoral process worth calling ‘democratic.’”

The European Commission announced Monday financial aid to support France to help address the situation in Calais.

European Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans and Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs Dimitris Avramopoulos visited Calais, alongside French Prime Minister Manuel Valls and Minister of Interior Bernard Cazeneuve.

During the visit, the Commission welcomed the concrete actions put forward by the French and British authorities in their joint declaration on managing migratory flows in Calais, in particular the pledges to take additional steps to act against criminal networks of smugglers who prey on migrants, to develop a fast-track process for assessing asylum claims, to ensure the adequate protection of the most vulnerable, and to ensure the return of those migrants who have no right to stay in the EU.

First Vice-President Frans Timmermans said, “The situation in Calais requires above all common and resolute action. For the situation is but a symptom, amongst others in Europe, of a larger crisis. It is a crisis of European dimension and that requires a European response. Calais can and should be an example of how durable and courageous solutions can form this European response, addressing the challenge from all angles. We must act with humanity towards those in need of our protection, with solidarity and responsibility towards fellow European countries and with rigour in the application of our common EU rules.”

Migration and Home Affairs Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos said: “The Commission is showing once more that Europe is capable of putting solidarity into practice. This emergency funding will help reduce the high pressure in Calais and offer humanitarian assistance to migrants living in rough conditions. But we need to do more than respond to immediate emergencies: we need to advance on the concrete proposals the Commission put on the table. In this respect, I welcome the Luxembourgish presidency’s decision to hold an extraordinary Justice and Home Affairs Council on 14 September to discuss next measures that need to be taken and implemented to address the unfolding migration crisis jointly.”

In response to a request for emergency assistance, the Commission agreed to allocate €5.2 million in emergency assistance funding under the Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) to set up a tent site offering humanitarian assistance to around 1500 illegal migrants residing in the area surrounding the day centre “Jules Ferry” and to support the transport of asylum seekers from Calais to other locations in France.

This assistance complements the €266 million granted for the period 2014-2020 to finance long-term actions in the area of asylum, migration and integration and the €3.8 million in emergency funding already granted in 2014 to co-finance the establishing of the “Jules Ferry” day centre.

The Commission reaffirmed its strong commitment to continue delivering on every aspect of the European Agenda on Migration and to translate into concrete actions the common approach, which received the backing of Heads of State and Government at the European Council in April.

Sri Lanka President Sirisena said the Buddhist philosophy is the noblest gift the country can offer to the world as a Buddhist country. He also stated the new government will implement a well-planned program to propagate the message of Buddhist philosophy to the international community.

Sirisena pointed out that a good society cannot be built only through physical development of the country. He added he would be dedicated to make a better future generation through spiritual development.

Siresena made these remarks at the completion ceremony of the Kandy Esala Perahera held in Kandy on Sunday.

In keeping with tradition, Diyawadana Nilame of the Sri Dalada Maligawa, Nilanga Dela presented the Perahera Sannasa informing President Maithripala Sirisena of the successful completion of the Kandy Esala Perahera, at the President’s House in Kandy.

The President presented awards and certificates to artistes who participated in the Perahera in making the Perahera a success.

By James M Loy

President Barack Obama should be applauded for gathering world leaders in Anchorage this week for a US-led conference on “Global Leadership in the Arctic.”

Yet the summit’s limited focus on climate change, though undoubtedly important, belies the significance of the broader US interests and responsibilities in the Arctic region.

As ice turns to navigable ocean, the Arctic is becoming the US’ third great ocean border, creating vexing strategic challenges and unprecedented opportunities. These include not only climate change but threats to national sovereignty and security, revolutions in international commerce and a “Klondike”-like rush to control vast undersea resources.

The US Geological Survey estimates that 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its undiscovered natural gas lie in the Arctic. The US has the potential to be the leader in responsible Arctic oil exploration, as its major oil companies maintain the technology and know-how to responsibly tap deep-sea Arctic oil, and could set a new global standard for responsible development and emergency response.

Yet the US is barely in the game, potentially allowing other nations to move in and develop these resources less safely. The opening of Arctic sea routes will cut transit times between Asian, US and European markets, reducing fuel costs and carbon emissions.

But growing traffic along these routes raises new questions of regulation and sovereignty. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that he wants the Bering Strait to become the next Suez Canal, and that any ships passing over large swaths of the Arctic — even the North Pole — may be forced to pay transit fees to Russia.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Russia is investing aggressively in the Arctic: 95 percent of its gas reserves and 60 percent of its oil reserves are located in the region. It leads the world with 22 icebreakers and has restored Soviet-era airfields and ports.

China, which isn’t even an Arctic country, will have built two icebreakers by next year. The US Coast Guard, however, has two functioning icebreakers, and one of these vessels is already a decade past its intended 30-year life span.

The US needs to play catch up after decades of disengagement. This lack of leadership on a range of Arctic issues — from maritime border disputes to seabed claims — is amplified by the US Senate’s bizarre refusal to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. More than 165 nations have signed onto the convention, which effectively governs territorial and commercial claims on the high seas, and has become the primary regime for arbitrating Arctic territorial claims. The US, however, is among the last holdouts refusing ratification, along with North Korea, Iran, Syria and Libya.

This failure to join the convention diminishes US credibility on issues in the Arctic that have tremendous strategic and economic implications. That is why every US president, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, chief of naval operations and Coast Guard commandant since 1994 has called for accession to the treaty. The US once invested in more than 600 radar and weather stations extending from the Aleutian islands to Greenland. And it invested in strategic energy infrastructure such as the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, recognizing that responsible Arctic development was central to the nation’s energy security.

Restoring the US to its historic role as an Arctic power will require a recognition of the complex and strategic issues at stake, long-term investment to improve Arctic infrastructure and capabilities, the adoption of the Law of the Sea convention to have an equal voice in the discussion and a fresh sense of urgency.

Since the rise of ISIS, there has been increasing online chatter from Southeast Asian militants fighting in Syria and Iraq. Useful insights can be derived by critically examining surface observations appearing on social media.

By Nur Azlin Mohamed Yasin, Jasminder Singh, Omer Ali Saifudeen and Teo Hwee Kuan*

Online chatter on Southeast Asian militants fighting in Syria and Iraq can readily be found in extremist websites and the social media accounts of the militants, supporters and sympathisers. The Malaysian Police reported a handful of Malay language sites. The International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) has detected at least 70 sites in Bahasa Indonesia.

The social media accounts of militants were first detected during the first quarter of 2014. A handful were from Indonesia and at least 35 from Malaysia. Their numbers may be small yet they have served as virtual powerhouses for garnering support online. This has been the case especially for Malaysian militants. A prominent example of a popular social media personality was Malaysian Mohd Lotfi Ariffin, a former Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) leader and Kumpulan Militan Malaysia (KMM) member who subsequently travelled to Syria to become a militant for Ajnad Ash Sham which adheres to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood. He garnered around 27,000 followers on Facebook during the days when such online accounts had a longer lifespan.

The case of Katibah Nusantara

Useful and critical information gathered on these online platforms can be sporadic and often exist as snippets indicative of a much larger picture. More often than not, they point towards critical lacunae in our understanding of the subject. For instance, one of the key questions arising from the online observations of Southeast Asian extremist sites would be on the operating structure, working dynamics, key personalities and security implications to Southeast Asia posed by the militants from Katibah Nusantara Lid Daulah Islamiyah or the Malay Archipelago Battalion.

Also known as Majmu’ah al Arkhabiliy, the group provides an attractive opportunity for Malay-speaking fighters to get mobilised. Its establishment was supported by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on 26 September 2014. Pieces of information on the group have been observed primarily in two online Southeast Asian extremist sources.

The first source came from an article posted in a pro-ISIS website that officially announced the establishment of Katibah Nusantara in September 2014. The content portrayed Katibah Nusantara as a structured group with clear leadership and objectives. The rationale behind the formation of dedicated units speaking a common language was, according to this article, primarily to help militants in ISIS overcome the language barrier. The article also mentioned that the formation of Katibah Nusantara was meant to be a catalyst for the regeneration of the caliphate in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Operational capacity and leadership structure

Furthermore, the article described how the unit was seeking to build its operational capacity and was looking for skilled individuals such as snipers, explosive experts, heavy weapons experts, tactics/strategy experts and experts in military leadership. This explicit call for recruitment can either be indicative of a shortage of fighters in Katibah Nusantara or a shift towards recruiting ‘skilled’ fighters.

The second source of information came sometime in April 2015 from a pro-ISIS website which reported about the group’s success in capturing five Kurdish-held villages in Syria. This notable operational success was used by the group to portray itself as being capable and well-organised.

However, closer scrutiny of some online information raises questions about foreign fighter groups operating in Syria and Iraq independent of local militants. Two videos posted on the Internet around July-August 2015 showing over 70 armed fighters, some speaking with an Indonesian accent and making preparations for battle, created the impression of Katibah Nusantara as an independent, cohesive and active combat group. However, it remains unverified whether such ethnically similar group of foreign fighters, such as Katibah Nusantara, have indeed operated independently and effectively in conflict zones.

Leaders listed in Katibah Nusantara as reported online thus far seem to be Indonesians. These include the overall amir (chieftain) of the unit, those responsible for enforcing law and discipline within the unit, individuals with bomb-making expertise and those ear-marked for special training by ISIS. So far, no Malaysian fighter has been mentioned online as a key leader. This is peculiar because there are a few notable ones with military experience and background in religious studies – qualifications that would deem them suitable for leadership. This leads us to question if Indonesian militants are more valued for some reason or is there a more strategic motive behind this?

What lies beneath?

Although ISIS is reportedly well-funded, with its fighters being paid more than those of Bashar al Assad, militants from Southeast Asia who are with ISIS apparently suffer from financial difficulty. In April 2015, some Malaysian militants conducted an online fundraising campaign on social media to ask for donations for the purchase of a truck. This raises queries on how much resources from ISIS command are actually being allocated to the Southeast Asian fighters and more importantly, whether they are valued as equals within ISIS.

The key security implication of such observations revolves around the issue of returnees and their capacity for attacks in Southeast Asia. A well-funded, trained, organised and connected Malay fighting unit within ISIS poses a far greater danger than a fragmented unit that exists more for propaganda purposes. However, even the latter has the potential to become a capable fighting unit when the propaganda serves its purpose by recruiting more skilled fighters.

Despite more questions than answers arising from casual online observations, these questions serve a critical function by guiding us towards essential revelations needed for making credible threat assessments. However, such observations should be grounded on methodological rigour to avoid the tendency to assume trends or jump to conclusions. Characteristics based on observations can only be considered reliable if they appear over a period of time and there is triangulation of information from other sources.

One way to promote such methodological rigour is for the research community analysing such phenomenon to share insights and cross-check each other’s findings. This will culminate in collectively deriving an accurate picture of Southeast Asians in ISIS that can value-add to the formulation of counter-terrorism strategies.

*Nur Azlin Yasin is an Associate Research Fellow and Jasminder Singh a Senior Analyst with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Omer Ali Saifudeen and Teo Hwee Kuan are analysts with the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS). The four authors are members of the Online Radicalisation Research Community of Practice (ORRCOP) that comprises Singaporean practitioners and subject matter experts involved in research related to online radicalisation.

By Robert Bridge*

In September, Europe’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will smash together sub-atomic particles at nearly the speed of light, an unprecedented experiment that has some of the leading voices in the world of science – and religion – sounding the alarm on the risks involved.

CERN is perhaps most famous for its discovery in 2012 of the elusive Higgs Boson [named after British physicist Peter Higgs who predicted its existence in 1964], the so-called ‘God particle,’ which allows other particles to build up mass as they pass through the Higgs field.

Today, however, CERN is more famous – or perhaps infamous is the better word – for an upcoming experiment in which scientists will play God in an effort to recreate the conditions immediately following the ‘Big Bang’ event that gave birth to the Universe millions of years ago.

For those who are in the dark about CERN and the controversial objectives it hopes to achieve, here is a quick primer.

10. CERN is the world’s biggest machine

Straddling the French-Swiss border, the $9 billion CERN collider complex is buried at a depth of up to 575 feet (175 meters). The tunnel complex runs along a 17-mile (27-kilometer) circuit. Scientists involved in the project say the laboratory was built underground because the Earth’s crust provides protection against radiation. They also say it was buried out of respect for the natural landscape, which sounds slightly ironic considering the massive damage the collider could possibly cause down the road.

9. Massive gravitational pull

The CERN collider is composed of some 9,600 super magnets – which are 100,000 times more powerful than the gravitational pull of Earth – that fire protons around a circular track at mindboggling speeds. A beam might rotate for up to 10 hours, travelling a distance of more than 10 billion kilometers, enough to make it to the far reaches of our Solar System and back again. Travelling just below light-speed, a proton in the LHC will make 11,245 circuits every second.

No less amazing are the magnet’s coils, which are made up of 36 twisted 15mm strands, each strand comprised in turn of 6000-9000 single filaments, each filament possessing a diameter as small as 7 micrometers. The 27km length of the LHC demands some 7,600 km (4,100 miles) of cable, which amounts to about 270,000 km (145,000 miles) of strand — more than enough to circle the Earth six times at the Equator. According to the CERN website, if the filaments were unraveled, they would “stretch to the Sun and back five times with enough left over for a few trips to the Moon.”

8. CERN generates extreme temperatures

There may be another reason for the CERN super collider being buried hundreds of feet underground: The unbelievable hot temperatures it can reach. How hot you ask? Well, about as hot as conditions in the Universe after the Big Bang, or more than 100,000-times the temperature at the center of the Sun. This will be achieved, CERN says, by accelerating and colliding together two beams of heavy ions, an epic scientific event that will take place next month.

7. But Stephen Hawking is worried

Although it may require some mental gymnastics to wrap one’s brain around exactly what the CERN scientists are attempting to achieve in their underground lab, the average layman may instinctively understand that such an experiment may be wrought with unforeseeable pitfalls. Stephen Hawking, the eminent physicist, seems to agree.

“The God particle found by CERN could destroy the universe,” Hawking wrote in the preface to a book, Starmus, a collection of lectures by scientists. The Higgs Boson could become unstable at very high energy levels and have the potential to trigger a “catastrophic vacuum decay which would cause space and time to collapse and… we would not have any warning to the dangers,” he continued.

Hawking is not the only voice in the scientific wilderness predicting possible catastrophe if CERN continues in the atomic fast lane. Astrophysicist Neil de Grasse Tyson told Eugene Mirman on his Star Talk radio program that the experiment could literally cause the planet to “explode.”

“Ask yourself: How much energy is keeping it together? Then you put more than that amount of energy into the object.” Tyson was confident of the result: “It will explode.”

In late 2008, when CERN was first firing up the engines on its atom-smashing machine, Otto Rossler, a German professor at the University of Tubingen, filed a lawsuit against CERN with the European Court of Human Rights, on the grounds that the facility could trigger a mini black hole that could get out of control and annihilate the planet. The Court tossed out Rossler’s request, but he nevertheless succeeded in generating heated discussion on the possible dark side of the experiment.

6. Opening the door to other dimensions

One year after CERN’s grand opening, Sergio Bertolucci, former Director for Research and Scientific Computing of the facility, grabbed headlines when he told a British tabloid the super collider could open otherworldly doors to another dimension for “a very tiny lapse of time,” mere fractions of a second. However, that may be just enough time “to peer into this open door, either by getting something out of it or sending something into it.”

“Of course,” added Bertolucci, “after this tiny moment the door would again shut; bringing us back to our ‘normal’ four-dimensional world … It would be a major leap in our vision of nature… And of course [there would be] no risk to the stability of our world.”

Naturally, this comment has triggered fears that the CERN collider could unwittingly invite unwanted visitors from other time-space dimensions. Anybody for dinosaurs strolling along the Champs-Élysées, or alien life forms seizing the entire planet? Such scenarios – at least for some scientists – are no longer confined to the fictional world of Isaac Asimov novels; with the ongoing work at CERN, there is even talk of opening up a portal for time travel.

Simply postulating such futuristic scenarios shows how far mankind has traveled in a relatively short expanse of time, and our dystopic future predicted in books like “Brave New World” and “1984” may already be here. Will man be able to control the technology he has created, or will the technology destroy him, his works, and with it the entire planet?

5. CERN’s curious choice of geographic location

Now on top of all the speculation as to what CERN scientists are really attempting to do with their Large Hadron Collider, many observers could not help but notice that the town in France where CERN is partially situated is called “Saint-Genus-Poilly.” The name Pouilly comes from the Latin “Appolliacum” and it is believed that in Roman times a temple existed in honor of Apollo, and the people who lived there believed that it is a gateway to the underworld. It is interesting to note that CERN is built on the same spot.

Religious leaders – always suspicious of the aims of the scientific world – drew a connection to a verse straight out of Revelations (9:1-2, 11), which makes reference to the name ‘Apollyon.’ The verse states: “To him was given the key of the bottomless pit. And he opened the bottomless pit… And they had a kind over them, which is the angel of the bottomless pit, whose name in the Hebrew tongue is Abaddon, but in the Greek tongue hath his name Apollyon.”

Now try telling a spiritual leader that the Bible is conspiracy theory.

4. Tapping into ‘Dark Matter’

Astonishingly, astrophysical observations have demonstrated that all visible physical matter accounts for only four percent of the Universe. Now the race is on at CERN to find those elusive particles or phenomena responsible for dark matter (23 percent) and dark energy (73 percent). Essentially what the CERN experiment hopes to achieve is to separate – by way of the atom smasher – the invisible dark matter, which has been described as the very glue that holds together, from the visible. There’s just one problem with this experiment: Nobody has any idea what the consequences will be if that goal is achieved. So once again, this ‘dark versus visible’ paradigm has generated a battle that transcends the scientific world, becoming a question involving philosophy and spirituality.

3. CERN logo

I will leave it up to the imagination of the reader to determine if the public relations team at CERN opened up the door to massive conjecture – not to mention a huge amount of ‘conspiracy theory’ – by opting for the particular logo design that they did.

2. Deity of destruction as corporate mascot

Although most corporations shun any connection with religion and the spiritual world, CERN has chosen as its mascot a Hindu goddess. But not just any Hindu goddess. Just outside of its headquarters building sits an ancient statue to Shiva, ancient Apollyon, the goddess of destruction. Strange?

1. No Democratic debate

CERN is presently ramping up the largest atom collider in the world (it takes months for the magnets to get the particles to reach near light-speed) in preparation for their next atomic collision which is scheduled to take place next month – with barely a mention in the media of the risks involved. Since some critics say this scientific experiment poses greater risks than even the tests prior to the introduction of the atomic bomb, it would stand to reason that there should be much more discussion on this ‘dark matter.’ Sadly, and not a little ironically, CERN – which essentially governs itself as its own fiefdom – is operating just as invisibly as the particles they are attempting to study.

However, CERN has been the trailblazer on a number of other highly credible projects, which may tempt people to give them the benefit of the doubt regarding CERN, which certainly ranks as one of the most comprehensive and expensive scientific experiments in history.

In 1989, under the guidance of Tim Berners-Lee, CERN began the World Wide Web project, which led to the first webpage in history. On April 30, 1993, CERN announced that the World Wide Web would be free to anyone.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

*Robert Bridge, originally from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, has worked as an investigative journalist in Russia since 1998. His articles have been featured in many publications, including Russia in Global Affairs, The Drudge Report, Russia Insider and Infowars.com. Bridge is the author of the book “Midnight in the American Empire”, which was released in early 2013.

Puerto Rico’s religious leaders have called for debt relief in the face of the $72 billion financial crisis burdening the Caribbean US territory.

At a press conference in San Juan, leaders of the principle religious groups laid out six principles to resolve the crisis. In a statement, the clergy called on the United States Federal Reserve to intervene if Congress fails to pass bankruptcy protection to the financially strapped island.

Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro García Padilla said in June that the island’s debt was “unpayable” and that he plans to release a new adjustment plan later in the week.

“This debt crisis threatens to push more of our people into poverty and put people out of work,” said San Juan Archbishop Roberto González Nieves, leader of Puerto Rico’s mostly Catholic population. “The religious community stands with vulnerable people and we call for the crisis to be resolved in a way that protects the poor and grows our economy.”

Two recent reports, one commissioned by a group of hedge funds who purchased the island’s distressed debt and the other authorized by Puerto Rico’s own government, suggest new austerity plans to pay off portions of the debt.

The dueling reports note a range of “fiscal adjustments” including reducing the minimum wage, education resources and healthcare costs. One of the principles promoted by the coalition of religious leaders is that any resolution to the financial crisis prevents further austerity plans.

“As religious leaders, we see how desperate the situation is for Puerto Rico’s people,” said Reverend Heriberto Martínez Rivera, the Secretary General of Puerto Rico’s Biblical Society and the leader of the religious coalition confronting the debt crisis. “Too many of our people are already suffering from austerity policies and many brothers and sisters have left for the United States hungry for work and a better quality of life.”

Beyond calling for debt relief and criticizing austerity policies, the religious leaders’ statement asserts the need for greater Puerto Rican budget transparency and participation in future debt negotiations by people negatively affected by the crisis. The leaders described an urgency to speak because of the Biblical concept of debt relief or of Jubilee. Religious congregations will read the statement at worship services over the next week.

“Puerto Rico’s religious leaders are fighting for the lives of their people,” stated Eric LeCompte, the executive director of the faith-based development coalition Jubilee USA Network. LeCompte visited Puerto Rico in mid-August to advise religious and political leaders on solutions to the crisis.  “We need to get Puerto Rico’s debt back to sustainable levels and ensure that the island has a path for economic growth.”

Some of the hedge funds, arguing for cuts in Puerto Rico’s economic growth, were or are currently involved in debt disputes in Greece, Argentina and Detroit, Michigan. The religious leaders raise concern over predatory hedge fund activity in their statement released on Monday.

Beyond the Catholic Church, other religious groups signing the statement include Methodists, Lutherans, Evangelicals, Pentecostals and the Disciples.

The conviction of investigative journalist Khadija Ismayilova today is the latest in an effort paint a thin veneer of legal legitimacy on a determined campaign by the Azerbaijan government to silence its critics, PEN American Center said in a statement today.

Founded in 1922, PEN American Center is an association of 4,000 US writers working to break down barriers to free expression worldwide.

Ismayilova was convicted Tuesday morning in a closed-door trial on charges of libel, tax evasion, illegal business activity, and abuse of power, and sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison. She was acquitted on the original charge of inciting a colleague to suicide.

According to PEN, an internationally acclaimed investigative journalist, Ismayilova had exposed the unethical business dealings of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his family in a series of articles between 2010-2012. In later writing and public appearances, she revealed government wrongdoings of a more personal nature, emerging as one of the strongest advocates for jailed colleagues and human rights activists persecuted by the regime. After a years-long government campaign against her, Ismayilova was arrested on charges in December 2014, in advance of the international spotlight on the country as it prepared to host the first ever Olympic-organized European Games.

“Khadija Ismayilova’s conviction by a kangaroo court is part of a longstanding campaign by the government to banish and punish one of Azerbaijan’s most courageous and potent dissident voices,” said PEN Executive Director Suzanne Nossel. “Her conviction today in a farcical closed-door trial—replete with glass cages, absurd charges, and a star witness for the prosecution who begged to recant his accusations—is a brazen effort to deter those who would scrutinize the increasing corruption of President Aliyev and his cronies. Khadija now becomes a martyr, her fearlessness and and passion to expose injustice too powerful for even a prison to contain.”

In May, Ismayilova received the 2015 PEN/Barbara Goldsmith Freedom to Write Award for a writer imprisoned for his or her work. Since its inception in 1987, thirty-five of the 40 writers who were in prison at the time they won PEN’s annual award have been freed, due in part to the attention and pressure generated by the prize.

According to PEN, Azerbaijan is one of the world’s most restrictive environments for free expression, where at least 26 writers are currently detained, on trial, or jailed and others are subject to regular harassment, threats, and violence. Last month, journalist Rasim Aliyev was beaten to death in broad daylight on the streets of the capital city after criticizing a star national soccer player.

More than 1,000 Colombian adults and children were expelled from Venezuela after President Nicolas Maduro issued a state of emergency on Aug. 21 and suspended constitutional rights by an extendable 60 days in six municipalities that border Colombia. The move came after three Venezuelan military officers were injured in a clash with smugglers two days before.

In a message to the country, Maduro announced a state of emergency in the border municipalities of Urdaneta, Bolívar, Ureña, Junín, Capacho Libertad and Capacho Independencia “as part of the measures to restore order, peace, tranquility, justice and a truly humane border.”

Maduro’s decision is carried out amidst Venezuela’s fight against armed groups and smugglers. According to press reports, Colombian guerrillas and paramilitaries are often present in the area. Moreover, fuel and regulated and subsidized goods from Venezuela are smuggled to Colombia and sold at several times their value.

Although the reaction of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has been to continue dialogues, the truth is that Maduro’s measure has caused a political crisis between the two countries.

Santos said that the closure of the border is not a solution to the security problems in the area and that both governments must work closely.

“If it’s for security, the response should not be to close the border,” said the Colombian president. “If we cooperate, the only losers are the criminals, but if the border is closed and there is no coordination, the only winners are the criminals. [The response] should be, rather, to collaborate more effectively with the Colombian authorities.”

The summary deportation of about 1,200 Colombians, including 240 children, has caused a “humanitarian crisis,” Santos said. Another 1,000 fled their homes in Venezuela due to threats of expulsion.

Amnesty International (AI) declared in a statement on Aug. 26 its concern regarding “mistreatment during detention, forced evictions and demolition of houses where Colombian nationals lived or where they were believed to have lived without any respect for rights.” AI further noted that “family groups have been separated and have resulted in some cases of children abandoned in Venezuela after their parents’ deportation to Colombia.”

AI noted that Venezuela “has a duty to maintain security and public order, including border areas, and in some extraordinary and unforeseen circumstances provided by law, it may declare a state of emergency for a limited period. However, these actions may not result in human rights violations.”

“The expulsion or deportation procedures must follow all the safeguards provided in the national legal instruments and comply with international human rights standards. For this the Venezuelan state must ensure that the cases of all persons whose expulsion or deportation is under consideration are individually examined in a fair and transparent procedure that allows challenging the expulsion and review of cases,” stated AI.

Hoarding and smuggling

Meanwhile in Venezuela, Aug. 12 marked the first year of the implementation of the National Plan to Combat Smuggling, aimed to prevent hoarding and smuggling of food and fuel, which has led to the arrest of around 6,000 people, destruction of border passageways, and the confiscation of 19,000 tons of products.

Venezuelan authorities accuse Colombian immigrants of aggravating the shortage crisis in Venezuela by hoarding and smuggling regulated and subsidized commodities and selling them across the border at five or six times their price . The Fair Prices Act sets prison terms of three to five years for the resale of these products.

About 170,000 people a day cross the 2,219 km-long Colombian-Venezuelan border.

According to Maduro, more than 5 million Colombians live in Venezuela, people who “are fleeing violence, war and looking for social protection in Venezuela through education, health and work.”

Maduro has stated that 121,834 Colombians have entered Venezuela this year. However, Colombia Immigration data show that between January and August, about 315,000 Colombians traveled to Venezuela, of which 307,000 have returned. It is possible, state the Colombian authorities, that some of the 8,000 who did not return have traveled to other countries.

Likewise, Colombia Immigration data indicate that around 183,000 Venezuelans entered Colombia, of which 174,000 returned to their country. A study by the Central University of Venezuela estimated that 1.6 million Venezuelans have left their country since 1999 when former President Hugo Chavez (1999-2013) came to power.

In a statement, the Colombian Foreign Ministry has asked Venezuela to “respect the integrity and human rights of Colombian citizens who are the subject of arrests, deportations and other preemptive actions.”

“We demand that, before applying deportation measures, the family situation be analyzed to ensure that parents and children are not separated,” the statement said.

Maduro’s response was that the border will not reopen until “at least a minimum sense of coexistence and respect for the law is restored.”

The conflict in Yemen is affecting a staggering number of people, and the country’s basic infrastructure is facing total destruction. With every passing day, more problems are being created for the future.

By Ahmed Hezam Al-Yemeni*

For almost a hundred and thirty days, Yemen has been a battlefield for an international proxy war. Yemenis are trapped in a seemingly endless conflict, suffering in a humanitarian crisis that is the price being paid for the ambitions of militias and dictators. They are at the mercy of the strategic interests of others. And voices of peace and reconciliation are being lost in the winds of mistaken regional and international policy.

This tempest is far from over, and a national emergency is now well underway. At least six million people are facing emergency food insecurity, while violence continues to spread.

A country in ruins

They are fleeing the firing range that the country has become. Reports have documented the way in which all sides are taking the opportunity to use their stockpiles of old and new weapons, which has in turn led to the country becoming a feeding frenzy for arms dealers, and a training ground for soldiers, pilots and militia. Furthermore, there are reports of child soldiers being recruited – sometimes by force – and young men and boys in particular are being killed in numbers.

But it seems that the whole world is blind to all of this.

With the Iranian nuclear deal, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) are questioning the support of their previous allies in the west. They are putting all their resources into the conflict in Yemen, which they see as a fight for their survival.

But that is putting the survival of Yemenis themselves at risk. The country is suffering from shortages of food, fuel and medicine, and land transport costs have increased over 500 per cent since the escalation of violence in March.

9.4 million people have severely disrupted access to water, and outbreaks of water-borne diseases including cholera have been reported. 2.3 million children are at risk of developing acute diarrhoea. Medical centres are in need of every type of supply.

The legacy of conflict: disaffection and devastation

But no one seems to care about the six million people who need food. Local producers, farmers and fishermen have been abandoned. Half a million people have been affected by the disruption to the fishing industry around the coastline.

Fully 15 million need basic healthcare, and there has been an outbreak of dengue fever in six governorates – but care providers are unable to carry out detailed surveillance because of the virtual breakdown in the health system.

Such wide-scale conflict has forced many to flee, including me and most of my family. We have left behind our lives: our memories, homes, work, friends and relatives. We have no idea what’s next.

The difficulties for civil society

The violence in Yemen has also devastated civil society. In the decade until 2011, and even until the beginning of the current crisis, Yemen enjoyed a relatively strong civil society. There was a vibrant and active movement of local NGOs and charities working on a wide range of issues. They were giving hope for a new socio-political settlement for the country.

The war is killing that hope. The basic needs for any meaningful work to place are simply not there: safe and reliable transportation, good communications, office space and supplies and almost all fundamental infrastructure is missing or has been destroyed.

The human rights activists and journalists who are daring to continue to try and work are being threatened, and the climate of fear that has descended on the country means that no one is sure who to trust. Since March, everyone has known that ‘if you are not with me, you might be against me,’ and with every side in this incredibly complicated conflict seeking to spread and reinforce their influence, they are seeking to control and manipulate – or threaten – those who they find in their path. Those who resist are harassed, if not arrested or killed. Offices have been looted and staff forced to flee; NGOs thought to be on the wrong side of any local conflict have to declare their allegiance or risk the consequences.

This situation is desperate. The conflict shows the ugly side of national politics and global policies that are leaving a country destroyed in its wake. No one knows how it will end, but civil society must be allowed at least to try and broker local truces for the delivery of essential supplies. I know from my contacts across Yemen that there are examples of where people are struggling to build peace, but it is increasingly difficult the longer the conflict goes on. There are rivers of blood coursing through Yemen, and someone has to try and stop them.

*Ahmed Hezam Al-Yemeni is Insight on Conflict’s Local Correspondent for Yemen. He is a frequent commentator on Yemeni politics, including foreign policy, youth radicalisation and terrorism issues, and has more than a decade’s experience engaging with international organisations and NGOs.

This article was originally published by Insight on Conflict and is available by clicking here.

By Sylvia Mishra*

Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida, Spanish-speaking political scion, formally entered the US Presidential race on 15 June, formally saying “America Deserves Better“. The major thrust of the Republican’s campaign agenda so far has been a balanced mix of bridging income inequality, promoting free trade and highlighting America’s need for greater engagement with the world.

Hailing from a family of two former US presidents, Jeb Bush carries with him, for good or bad, plenty of family baggage. However, he has mentioned on several occasions “I am my own man” and that his family name has given him no unique claim to the Oval Office. So far, Jeb Bush has been vigorously campaigning, strengthening his super-PAC and has been able to establish himself as an accomplished candidate for the GOP presidential nomination. An average of three polls — CNN/ORC, Fox News and Rasmussen — by Real Clear Politics has shown that Jeb Bush approval ratings have registered a steady lead through the months of April to July. However, Donald Trump’s candidature has led to a sharp decline in Jeb Bush’s popularity ratings. Jeb Bush has called himself a “joyful tortoise“in the face of Donald Trump’s meteoric rise. Does a “slow and steady” Jeb Bush have what it takes to win the GOP presidential nomination?

What would possibly set Jeb Bush apart from the other GOP presidential nomination seekers is his ability to craft a campaign agenda which enables America to gain back the lead in the economic sphere, develop programmes that are inclusive of social issues, and a more realistic and less idealistic approach to America’s foreign policy engagements. As the security threat situation has dramatically changed since 2008 and 2012, the upcoming US Presidential elections of 2016 mandates that American leadership lays a thoughtful roadmap which upholds America’s strategic long-term interests. Another important factor which would be critical for a successful Republican party’s front-runner candidate would be his ability to frame policies which to a great extent would be bipartisan in nature. Over the past few years, American politics and especially foreign policies have been hugely partisan, often leading the international community to view American foreign policy unfavourably. Jeb Bush’s ability to sound like a president who once elected would be willing to follow the consensus-building model of reaching across the aisle would greatly consolidate his position as the Republican presidential candidate.

Economic policies play a pivotal role in electoral politics. Jeb Bush has promised that once elected he would deliver a 4% annual economic growth rate. During his term as the Governor of Florida (1997-2007), he had an impressive economic record as he balanced the state’s budget and registered one of the fastest job growth rates. However, the soundness of his economic policies has been questioned by economists. Several have contended that the 4% growth rate during Jeb Bush’s time is due to Florida’s vibrant demographics which support a rapidly expanding pool of workers.Paul Krugman stated that Jeb Bush’s economic policies reflect self-aggrandisement because Florida’s boom was due to the “housing bubble” and when the bubble burst the state plunged into a deep slump. Being a stern fiscal and social conservative, Jeb Bush has principally been a spokesperson for the large section of pro-business wing. On the campaign trail, Jeb Bush hasn’t laid out an economic growth plan and has given extremely sketchy details of how he intends to introduce pro-growth policies that would support workers to find jobs.

On the foreign policy front, a major thrust of Jeb Bush’s campaign has been to go on the offensive, accusing the incumbent administration under President Obama and his first secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, of America’s disengagement with the world, thereby emboldening America’s foes. Under a Jeb Bush presidency, he promises that America would be in a position to project power and establish peaceful stability in far-off areas across the globe. Bush’s underlying understanding regarding war efforts emanates from the Republican conservative idea that that the world is a safer place when America engages. However, he hasn’t been specific regarding what entails America’s foreign engagements aside from strengthening the US military and forging relationship with allies. On his approach to solving the Middle East quagmire, he has stated in an opinion article in National Review that the Iran deal would allow Iran to intimidate the Middle East and the US needs to coordinate better with the Iraqi government and military to embed US trainers with Iraqi trainers. While the foreign policy agenda of Jeb Bush has certainly been hawkish, it is important to note that during the primary election campaigns, presidential candidates usually tend to take positions that are either more right/left of the political spectrum to win over the base voters. Usually once the candidates have won their party’s nomination, they tend to take positions which are more centrist.

The super-PAC backing former Florida governor Jeb Bush has reportedly raised an impressive $103 million that will enable him to launch a robust campaign. In the present situation, it would bode well for Jeb Bush’s election campaign if he is able to minimise the scale of controversies such as the “anchor babies” — an idea which is centred on the assumption that having an American-born child can protect undocumented people from deportation. Negative campaigns have previously worked against presidential candidates and he would do well by refraining from statements that could be construed as racist.

*The writer is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: www.huffingtonpost.in

Christian schools in Israel will stay closed tomorrow on the start of the new academic year in a strike in protest against “discriminatory” policies by the Israeli state.

Budget cuts imposed by the Tel Aviv government in fact over the years forced the Christian schools to progressively increase fees for the families, causing difficulties especially for those – mostly Arabs – who struggle to survive, with incomes below the national average.

A difficult negotiation failed just before the summer between representatives of the Christian schools and Israeli ministry of Education, when the government proposed the institutes become state schools. A proposal categorically rejected, saying in a statement that joining the public school system would mean “the end of the Christian, value-based educational enterprise and even a critical blow to the Christian minority in the Holy Land”. The Christian Schools Committee confirms that it remains determined and assures that it will only stop the protest after all demands are met.

Christian schools – recognized by the ministry of Public Education, but not public – are attended by some 30,000 students each year, both Christians and Muslims. The majority of them were active before the constitution of the state of Israel and receive partial funding from the ministry, with the balance of the budget paid by the parents.

Civil aviation is rapidly embracing newer technologies to enable operations to be more efficient. However, ease of use and data availability in civil aviation may pose potential cybersecurity risks to the industry with international implications.

By Eugene EG Tan*

On August 7, 2015, it was disclosed that the databases of American Airlines (AA) and Sabre Corp., one of the largest clearing houses for travel reservations, were hacked. Taken together with the hacking of United Airlines in July 2015, this revelation shows that the civil aviation industry is increasingly prone to cyberattacks, and contains cybersecurity lapses that need to be addressed.

However, passenger data theft may just be the tip of the iceberg when it comes to cybersecurity in the civil aviation sector. Revenues in the industry top US$388 billion, presenting a tempting target for potential cyber criminals. Revenue streams are not the only target for hackers. The civil aviation industry is also a treasure trove of data, with flight data and personal data being collected by both the airlines and regulators’ servers.

Next generation air transportation system

While this data is collected to ensure the physical safety of passengers by securing and verifying the identity of the passenger, the concern is that data collected by hackers could be misused in many ways, including espionage, identity theft and credit card fraud.

In April 2015, the General Accountability Office (GAO) released a study advising the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to take a more comprehensive approach towards cybersecurity as it moves toward a NextGen Air Transportation System. The report singled out three main areas for improvement: air traffic control (ATC), avionics, and the roles and responsibilities among FAA offices. These are long term issues that need to be addressed going forward, but with the advance in and the changing nature of information and communications technology (ICT), these are also urgent issues that need robust and present solutions.

Integrated nature of civil aviation

The civil aviation industry is a large and international industry that encompasses many stakeholders, including regulators, airport operators, aircraft and engine manufacturers, and airlines. The industry employs up to 58 million people worldwide in associated jobs, and generates about US$2.2 trillion in GDP yearly. The different sectors in the civil aviation industry are also closely knit, relying on each stakeholder to accurately provide information and services for efficient air operations.

However, as seen in the AA and Sabre cyberattacks, hackers can strike at different stakeholders in the industry. Therefore, the civil aviation industry in Singapore needs to recognise the industry-wide nature of the challenge cybersecurity poses. Parallels to the civil aviation industry can be drawn from the cyberattack on Target in November 2013 where credentials from an air-conditioning vendor were used by hackers to access the Target network, enabling hackers to install undetected malware, and collect credit card details from cashier terminals.

As a large department store, Target handles many transactions daily from both customers and vendors, much like the civil aviation industry with its multiple stakeholders and customers, who may not understand cybersecurity risks. Similarly, with multiple payment and vendor systems in the civil aviation industry, the industry is only as resilient to cyberattacks as its weakest link.

Increasing sophistication of civil aviation technology

The increasing sophistication of ATC systems and aircraft has benefited the civil aviation industry, but has also raised potential threats to the civil aviation industry. Technological advances have made planes much easier to fly, with improved avionics on-board to help with landings and take-offs. Conversely, overreliance on on-board avionics can also cause tragedy in civil aviation.

Newer aircraft are also equipped to provide Internet connection to passengers. While having Internet on-board is a boon for passengers living in the digital age, it is a possible security situation for airlines and regulators. The possibility of unauthorised personnel connecting to an aircraft avionics system through Wi-Fi in the plane was flagged as a potential blind spot in a GAO report published in April 2015 on the FAA’s approach toward NextGen cybersecurity.

Increasingly, air traffic control systems are also modernising to complement and communicate better with aircraft. Improved NextGen systems allow more data to be collected; enable data sharing between air traffic control and aircraft; allow flights to be better routed; and provide more efficient airport management.

The downside of NextGen technology is the magnitude of air service disruption should the system fail. For example, a computer glitch at an air traffic centre in Virginia caused more than 440 flights to be cancelled along the East Coast of the United States in August 2015. While not a cyberattack, this incident showed the vulnerability of NextGen technology in civil aviation.

Implications for regional civil aviation industry

As an international aviation hub, Singapore has kept these cybersecurity threats and blind-spots in view, but challenges remain. Although a small state, Singapore’s flight information reporting zone extends well into the South China Sea, making technology vital to Singapore’s ATC systems.

NextGen technology – LORADS III – is helping Singapore create a more efficient air traffic management system, especially with planned increases in capacity in the near future. However, ATC systems need to be resilient against cybersecurity threats to ensure the verity of the data produced and provided is not compromised.

While Singapore can afford these advanced systems, other states in the region may not have such capabilities in aircraft monitoring. This asymmetry in capabilities may pose difficulties toward air traffic growth in the wider region and raises questions on the ability to process and provide data to aircraft passing through the region. These are security questions that need to be addressed as a region, and with the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) scheduled to be rolled out by the end of 2015, ASEAN needs to ensure that these air traffic monitoring systems are also adequately protected against cyber mischief.

In conclusion, the challenge posed by cybersecurity to the civil aviation industry is massive, and with ASAM becoming a reality by the end of 2015, the civil aviation industry must recognise that the responsibility of cybersecurity is indivisible and becoming more international in nature.

*Eugene EG Tan is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.