By Mohammad Farhadi*

Following empowerment of the proponents of “Eurasianism” in Russia, the geopolitics-based approach has gained increasing importance. The importance attached to geopolitics-based approach in Russia’s foreign policy has led to rising security sensitivity, pragmatism, and expansion of Russia’s relations with countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasus. This approach has received increasing attention from leaders in Moscow, especially after revelations about deployment of the United States’ missile defense system in Eastern Europe and close to Russia’s borders and also after escalation of tensions between Russia, on the one hand, and NATO and the United States, on the other.

According to this approach, Russia has formulated its military strategy until 2020 in which it has emphasized expansion of its military activities within framework of this strategy. Of course, this does not mean that Russia seeks to wage war in the region. Despite its heightened criticism of the promotion of Western democracy model in this region, Russia welcomes the possibility of cooperation in European and American economic plans. The war on terror can be considered as a security challenge in the region, which has been used by Washington as an excuse for presence in the Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus.

These issues along with a common idea among Russian experts and politicians, who believe that Russia must regain the power of its past empire and to do this it must be actively present at international level, have caused Moscow to review its foreign policy goals.

Among major outcomes of this review is Russia’s categorical defense of political independence, interests and national prestige of countries; helping establish a multipolar world system; helping opponents of West’s hegemony and those who oppose resurgence of that hegemonic policy; showing respect for sovereignty of other governments and opposition to any form of intervention in their domestic affairs; as well as promotion of democratic relations at international level.

Therefore, when analyzing Russia’s military operation in Syria, one can claim that Moscow seeks to realize the aforesaid goals in the first place; that is, it is trying to achieve these goals in order to introduce itself as a global power with global interests. In the second step and from a geopolitical viewpoint, the Russian Federation sees itself surrounded by a green belt on the south, which consists of Islamic countries. This belt, which has been drawn around Russia in four layers, is of concern to Russia from the viewpoint of its potential to destabilize the country and deal a blow to its territorial integrity.

Two major threats; that is, secessionism and terrorism, which are intertwined with another factor in the form of religious extremism, are considered sources of crisis for Russia. In view of the globalization process, this issue has gained more importance. As a result, Russians believe that in the era of globalization they are facing global threats, so that, if, for example there is no security in Afghanistan or in Syria, this issue will in turn affect national security of Russia as well.

They are also of the opinion that if they do not fight terrorists in Syria at the present time, they will have to fight them in their backyard, that is, Central Asia, in the near future, and face them within their own borders later on. Therefore, despite numerous risks that military intervention in Syria by Russia entails, this measure is indicative of the fear that Russians feel about protection of their vital interests. From the viewpoint of Russians, preventing spread of extremist ideas in the country, in view of the remarkable Muslim population that lives in Russia, is the most important factor threatening the interests of the Russian federation.

On the other hand, expansion of religious extremism to Central Asia has been among factors that has bolstered the possibility of Russia’s intervention in Syria. In addition to remarkable population of Muslims in Russia, which is swelling on a daily basis, the power void, which was created following the collapse of the Soviet Union and has provided grounds for the spread of nationalistic and ethnic tendencies, must not be underestimated. In this way, suppression of this movement inside Syria will block the way to expansion of extremism outside Syria, which will entail the highest degree of benefit and profit for Russia.

Another issue that completes the above facts is the emphasis that has been put by the Russian government since 1996 – that is, when Yevgeny Primakov was Russia’s prime minister – according to which, Moscow has constantly declared that it does not accept a unipolar world system, noting that international system must be multipolar. From the viewpoint of Russians, realization of a multipolar system will further strengthen Russia’s presence at international level, create power balance at global level, and promote Russia’s status to that of a global power with global interests. Russians are of the opinion that a multipolar structure of international system is heavily dependent on military measures, while at present, only the US, NATO and some Western countries embark on military measures which is a factor that creates a totally unipolar system.

Russia, however, can now enter the scene and become the first global power other than the United States and Europe, which has taken serious military measures outside its territory. In this way, such calculations have made Russian leaders reach the conclusion that the country needs to take action and introduce itself as an international power. Of course, past experience has shown that if military measure is not replaced with political initiative at a specific juncture, it will prove to be nothing but a quagmire.

*Mohammad Farhadi
Ph.D. in Political Science and Expert in Iran’s Issues

By Dalga Khatinoglu and Fatih Karimov

A top American diplomat says that the US is ready to cooperate with Iran to resolve the Syria crisis.

The US State Department’s Persian Language Spokesperson Alan Eyre, who serves also as member of the US nuclear negotiator team with Iran told Trend Oct. 30, “To resolve the Syrian crisis, Washington is ready to cooperate with every nation, including Tehran and Damascus”.

The foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia as well as representatives of China and some European, Arab nations will participate in a summit in Vienna on Oct. 30, dedicated to resolve the Syria crisis.

A day before this summit, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that there has not been any change in Iran’s policy on the Syria issue.

Responding to the question “Is the US willing to expand relations with Iran to resolve crises in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East, and even problems between Washington and Tehran?”, Eyre said, “As it was announced recently, Iran has been officially invited to attend a meeting in Vienna on Oct. 30, aimed to discuss the Syrian crisis. Prior to that, Secretary of State John Kerry had said: “It’s important for us that key partners are in these discussions… They [Iran] could be a key partner, but they are not now”.

Tehran has always expressed support for the government of the Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Islamic Republic views the Syrian regime as its main strategic ally in the region and as part of an “axis of resistance” against Israel.

Western countries accuse Iran of running military operations in Syria, but Tehran denies the accusations. Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that they only render military consultations to the Syrian forces.

The US and its partners say Bashar al- Assad can participate in a political transition, but would have to leave power at the end of the process if Syria is to ever move on from a war that has killed at least 250,000 people and forced more than 11 million from their homes.

Eyre said, “As the White House announced, the US believes that multilateral negotiations will be fruitful and effective only if all the parties participate. To resolve the Syrian crisis, Washington is ready to cooperate with every nation, including Tehran and Damascus. As they say, step by step. God willing, with the participation of all the related countries, the exacerbated situation in Syria would be mended”.

According to a report released by Fars News Agency on Oct. 29, Along with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Deputy Foreign Ministers Abbas Araqchi, Majid Takht Ravanchi and Hossein Amir Abdollahian will also attend the one-day event.

Araqchi and Takht Ravanchi are Iran’s nuclear team in negotiation with the group 5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany).

The idea of an American journalist going inside Assad’s Syria might sound courageous. It presents the possibility for a much-needed counterbalance in a conflict that has overwhelmingly been reported from one side. After all, how is the outside observer to gauge how much genuine support the Assad regime really enjoys if our only interlocutors are its opponents?

This is how Martin Smith frames his decision to report on those part’s of Syria that remain under regime control:

“You will be killed.”

“Excuse me.”

“You’re going to be pilloried, lambasted. Yeah, you’re going to be unpopular.”

That was the conclusion of a colleague, someone with a lot of experience in the Middle East after watching just the opening minutes of my new FRONTLINE documentary, Inside Assad’s Syria.

“Why?”

“It’s the very idea of it — going into regime-held territory. Too many people have a view of Syria that this will inevitably challenge. This is an invitation for abuse.”

Another colleague told me before I left, “You will get the charm offensive. The regime’s best dog and pony show. Potemkin village.”

Of course I went anyway.

Was the end result, as predicted, just an invitation for abuse, or was it on the contrary a heroic piece of journalism?

After Smith’s report aired last week, some viewers were bubbling with praise:

This new @frontlinepbs on life inside Assad-controlled Syria is spectacular: *very worth watching https://t.co/rb6xF2jeyy

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 29, 2015

Let’s be clear: No one would have taken this report seriously if it was demonstrably lacking in objectivity — if, for instance, regime insiders were presented as ordinary Syrians who freely support their government. Yet this is exactly what happened as Smith misled PBS viewers. As Syria became too dangerous for most foreign journalists to risk entering, citizen journalists uploading videos onto YouTube became one of the primary windows on the conflict. These images have been a cry for help from ordinary Syrians reaching out to an often indifferent world. This medium of grassroots reporting is the iconic voice of an uprising that refuses to be crushed by the regime’s barrel bombs. But what if the regime has its own grassroots supporters, taking the same risks. Wouldn’t that change the way the world perceives the regime? In the figure of Thaer al-Ajlani, Smith seems to present just such an individual. Ajlani is described as a “pro-regime journalist” who for the last four-and-a-half years “has chronicled the war.” Smith underlines that Ajlani is partisan: “He wants me to see things from the regime’s perspective.” And yet we are led to understand that this is because Ajlani supports the regime — not because he works for the regime. There is no question that Smith views Ajlani as having a pivotal role in telling this story. As Inside Assad’s Syria aired, Smith live-tweeted his intense interest in Ajlani’s work:

One of the main reasons I came to Syria was to see this man’s footage. #InsideSyria — Martin Smith (@Martin28Smith) October 28, 2015

Every brutal regime has support from ordinary people who align themselves with power because they are too fearful to do otherwise. Closer in comes the support of those who benefit from that power. And then there is the power structure itself — the regime in its many branches permeating the military, intelligence, security services, militias, government agencies, media outlets, and a variety of informal accessories.

To understand how or if Thaer al-Ajlani had an important story to convey, we would need to know what exactly was his relationship with the regime.

When Ajlani is killed, shortly after Smith’s arrival, the filmmaker is shocked and ready to leave:

At this point, I considered the trip a bust. And was ready to pack up and leave. #InsideSyria

— Martin Smith (@Martin28Smith) October 28, 2015

Having lost his chosen guide, Smith is offered an alternative by the Syrian Ministry of Information but he declines:

The MOI offered to take us north too but with a cloying minder I didn’t want. #InsideSyria

— Martin Smith (@Martin28Smith) October 28, 2015

Ostensibly, Ajlani was independent. He might speak in support of the regime, yet he did not speak for Assad. Or did he?

After the Syrian’s death, Smith says: “I wanted to get to know this man better and to understand his Syria. The next day, I attend the funeral. I had expected a quiet family affair, not this.”

This, is a large funeral parade. “As the procession makes it way across town, crowds build. It’s clear al-Ajlani is a regime hero.” Smith concludes: “The regime has lost a defender.”

But why would Smith say he expected a quiet family affair, when Ajlani was from no ordinary family?

Thaer al-Ajlani comes from a distinguished family. His mother was a member of parliament and ambassador to Greece. #InsideSyria

— Martin Smith (@Martin28Smith) October 28, 2015

Ajlani was employed by two pro-regime media outlets: Sham FM Radio and Al-Watan, a Syrian daily newspaper owned by one of Assad’s cousins, Rami Makhlouf.

Moreover, according to the Syrian American Council, Ajlani’s ties to the regime ran much deeper.

They report he was a regime official who headed military propaganda for the Damascus area and that he previously ran Assad’s parliamentary press office.

So why was Smith presenting him as a “hero” and a loyal citizen who gave his life for the regime?

Did Smith know enough about Ajlani to understand that as a filmmaker he was making himself complicit in a fabrication? Or had he become so over-invested in this particular source that he preferred not to vet him more thoroughly?

A friend of mine for several years now — and a great supporter of the campaign to get Shaker Aamer released from Guantánamo — the musician Roger Waters, formerly of Pink Floyd, has written an article about Shaker’s release, which he has made available exclusively to me, on behalf of all those who have campaigned for Shaker’s release. Thank you, Roger!

A relentless campaigner against injustice, unlike far too many high-profile musicians, Roger became involved in the campaign to free Shaker after he was sent a letter from Shaker about a year and a half ago, via his lawyer Clive Stafford Smith, the founder of Reprieve, in which Shaker had been quoting from Roger’s song “Hey You” (from the album “The Wall”). The song begins:

Hey you, out there in the cold
Getting lonely getting old
Can you feel me?
Hey you, standing in the aisles
With itchy feet and fading smiles
Can you feel me?
Hey you, don’t help them to bury the light
Don’t give in without a fight

Roger then got involved with the We Stand With Shaker campaign that I launched with the activist Joanne Macinnes last November, attending the launch outside Parliament (see the photo above), and also visiting the US Embassy on Valentine’s Day, the date of Shaker’s arrival at Guantánamo in 2002, which was also the date of birth of his youngest son, when we were trying to hand in a giant Valentine’s Day card saying, “There is no love in Guantánamo,” which was signed by numerous celebrities and MPs. Roger also wrote an article for the Daily Mail, signed the open letter we wrote to President Obama on Independence Day, and, just two weeks ago, took part in the Fast For Shaker, when over 400 celebrities, MPs and concerned citizens around the world fasted for 24 hours in solidarity with Shaker.

Roger’s article, as well as discussing Shaker, also takes in the military industrial complex, the struggle of the majority  — “We The Many” — against a corrupt elite, the illegal invasion of Iraq and the 15 million people who protested against it, the importance of habeas corpus, the idiocy of Donald Trump, propaganda as entertainment (Zero Dark Thirty, 24, Homeland), and the West’s role, via blowback, in creating ISIS. Enjoy!

Roger Waters Writes About the Release of Shaker Aamer from Guantánamo

“Read all abaht it! Shaker Aamer released from Guantánamo Bay after 14 years in the clink.”

Firstly, Shaker, your supporters are profoundly glad to see you reunited with your brave family. You have been mightily wronged and your illegal detention and torture at the hands of the military industrial complex has served and will continue to serve as a reminder to us all that the battle has just begun.

Those who led the campaign for your release, Andy Worthington, Joanne Macinnes, Clive Stafford Smith at Reprieve, and all the others, including the MPs who went to lobby in Washington on your behalf, represent the tip of an iceberg.

Beneath the icy waters of political and economic domination by the few, “We The Many” are massing our forces and we will mount a formidable challenge to the deadly domination of those few.  Dwight D. Eisenhower warned, in 1960, in his famous speech, of the perils of the unchecked advance of the Military Industrial Complex. I quote:

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

“We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together … the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.”

Sadly the citizenry is anything but alert and knowledgeable. The Military Industrial Complex has invaded our living rooms where we sit mesmerized by “thirteen channels of shit on the TV.” The hired legal guns in Washington, in the Justice Department, write their memos and briefs to accommodate our new moral, ethical and legal standards. Torture and targeted assassination are legal now, regarded as morally acceptable in the corridors of power.

The entertainment industry has become a propaganda adjunct to the Military Industrial Complex. For instance, according to the movie Zero Dark Thirty, it was the use of torture that led to the capture and execution of Osama Bin Laden. That blatant untruth was fed to the makers of the film by the CIA. As we know, torture doesn’t produce reliable intelligence and, “We The Many” will not be subjoined into The Military Industrial Complex’s Gestapo.

“We The Many”, 15,000,000 of us, took to the streets all over the world on February 15th 2003 to demonstrate against Bush and Blair and Cheney and Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and Rice and Rove’s determination to dash headlong into war in Iraq.

They ignored us, lied to us, trumped up fake evidence, and went ahead with their insane plan. We mourn the dead. The calumny of the invasion of Iraq will remain a stain on our history forever.

“We The Many” were right then and we are right now and armed with our resolve to do the right thing we lie in wait beneath the surface of the icy waters that are The New World Order. Let their Titanic beware, we are here and we are strong and our love for all our brothers and sisters and the Law and Mistress Liberty is stronger than their love of money and power and they will founder on us.

All this may sound like a digression from Shaker Aamer, but it is not. Shaker was imprisoned without trial for 14 years! Incarceration without due process is fundamentally antipathetic to any civilized society. For many years I have used an inflatable pig, as a theatrical device, which has sported the slogan “Habeas Corpus Matters”. It does. The legal requirement that no one can be disappeared, that everyone accused of a crime has a right to his or her day in court is a cornerstone of jurisprudence that is to be protected at all costs!

I feel I may be losing the attention of some of the dimwits at the back of the class — “Yes, Trump, I’m talking to you.” There should be a wider conversation — “Trump, pay attention!” — a wider conversation about circumventing the law, and whether decisions to circumvent the law should be left up to generals or politicians.

Fundamentally the question is this: do “We The Many” want to abrogate our rights as individuals under the Law and submit to the authority of the State? Will we be content for Uncle Sam to become indistinguishable from Uncle Joe Stalin? “Trump!!! Wake up!! Pay attention!”

Where does The Law come from? Who decides that torture or incarceration without trial, are suddenly legal? “Trump? Trump!! Wake up.”

If Trump were not asleep he would probably trot out, ”Terrorist threat, foreigners, ticking bomb, national security, immigrants, torture works … I’ve seen it on TV … Kiefer Sutherland, 24 … just shoot’em in the leg … they’ll tell you where the dirty bomb is!”

So really, what Trump is saying is that it’s OK by him that The Law is a malleable device controlled, at its sole discretion, by the executive branch of government, ratified and rewritten by trained flunkies in the Justice Department and then sold to an ill informed public through the fantasy of network or cable TV shows like 24 and Homeland.

Speaking of Terrorism and the Law, I suspect Trump approves of targeted assassinations, which are illegal by all international standards. Targeted assassinations, whether by drone attack or other means are international acts of terror, which create enmity and exacerbate the problem they pretend to address. We’ve all heard the theory. The theory is this, if you “cut the head off a snake”, if you take out the top guy of any organization, be it drug cartel, or radical political group or even some inconveniently elected government or politician, the target organization will wither and die.

This theory is generally acknowledged by top DEA and/or Military authorities to be complete rubbish. Kill whoever it might be and all his friends and relations are drawn to the cause, whatever it might be. Far from killing the snake you are building a pyramid with an ever broadening base. The inevitable results are escalating violence in the so called war on drugs and the spread of all negative aspects of the illegal trade in narcotics, the tyranny that always follows political assassinations, and, most obviously of all, the compounding of disasters like the invasion of Iraq. By continuing the senseless slaughter, you create ISIL, just as you effected the spread of Al-Qaida in Iraq all those years ago.

On a happier note:

Shaker Aamer, you are a man of incalculable spirit and courage and doubtless also faith. Your indomitable resistance in the face of remorseless persecution lights a corner of the dark. We owe you an enormous debt of gratitude. Welcome home, my friend.

With great respect and love,

Roger Waters

New York City
Friday October 30th 2015

Below is Roger’s video about Shaker, and see below that for his interview with Sky News outside the US Embassy in February:

By 2nd Lt Chris Babcock, USAF*

For space and cyber Airmen, tomorrow’s fight will be determined largely by the concept of cyberspace dependency. That term, as defined by the author, is the degree to which a military capability relies on supremacy over a portion of the cyberspace domain in order to cause or carry out its effects.1 Cyber dependency is rapidly growing due to the cyberspace domain’s exponential nature, the trajectory of market forces in the civilian world, and the strategic integration by the military of computer technology in the land, maritime, and air domains.2

Unlike employment in the three traditional war-fighting domains, the present employment of capabilities in the space domain cannot be achieved without cyberspace.3 The recognition of this unique relationship between space and cyberspace has profound implications for recruitment; initial, intermediate, and advanced training; and development in the space and cyber career fields. A transition from the current force-development system towards one that acknowledges the unique relationship between space and cyberspace will have the additional benefit of informing the greater operational community as war fighters in the land, maritime, and air domains continue to become increasingly dependent upon cyberspace and space. This article discusses the implications of cyber dependency and proposes six recommendations to ensure that from recruitment to advanced training, space and cyber Airmen are prepared to excel in their interconnected domains.

Space Cyber Dependency

The relationship between space and cyberspace is unique in that virtually all space operations depend on cyberspace, and a critical portion of cyberspace can only be provided via space operations. –Joint Publication 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations, 5 February 2013

All space operations currently performed by the US military are cyberspace de- pendent (fig. 1).4 Space operations take place in the physical space domain, not within cyberspace. But because those who perform space operations are not physically present in space, they must rely entirely on control of their segment of cyberspace to transmit their commands to space vehicles in order to carry out space operations.5

Figure 1. Space and cyberspace operations. Due to physical limitations, space operations take place on both sides of the cyberspace domain.

If a military space operation were to involve a pilot physically residing in a space vehicle, reacting to the environment in order to carry out effects in space, this would describe a space operation that is not reliant entirely on cyberspace supremacy.6 In the absence of that scenario, space operators must use specialized computers and computer programs to transmit information to and from their space vehicles— which are themselves complex information systems—over a computer network.7 Space’s cyber dependency demands that special attention be paid to the cyber defense of space capabilities, but it also foreshadows the future state of the traditional war-fighting domains.

The physical network layer of cyberspace includes the information systems with which space operators command their satellites, the circuits connecting those information systems to the ground equipment, and the ground equipment itself. The logical network layer of cyberspace is embedded in each piece of the physical network. The cyber-persona layer describes the space operators who rely on the physical and logical network layers to perform space operations (fig. 2).

Figure 2. Cyber layers in space operations

The Exponential Domain

But if you think you’re safe in cyber, when you wake up tomorrow, everything is different. —Gen John E. Hyten, Commander Air Force Space Command

Ever since Intel cofounder Mr. Gordon Moore observed in 1965 that the capability of computer circuitry grows exponentially over time, it has been widely understood that innovation in computer technology expands at a rate unmatched in human history.8 Innovation begets innovation, and the changing nature of information technology poses unique challenges for military operators in the cyberspace domain compared to those of the first four war-fighting domains.9

First among those challenges is that the private sector has now begun to advance far more rapidly than the defense industry in several areas of technological innovation.10 This can mostly be attributed to the molasses-like procurement and configuration management processes in the Department of Defense’s large technological programs relative to the nimbleness of a Silicon Valley start-up company.11

A second serious challenge is that the asymmetry of cyberspace allows attackers to more quickly and more easily utilize rapid changes to their advantage than can defenders.12 At a fundamental level, cyber defenders attempt to ensure that software and hardware work the way they are supposed to while cyber attackers attempt to break software or hardware to cause harmful effects.13 In this matchup, the aggressor will almost always have the advantage. Additionally, the exponential nature of cyberspace causes institutional knowledge and individual skill sets to atrophy far more quickly than they do in the traditional war-fighting domains. This poses especially interesting challenges for the training and education of cyberspace operators.

For all of its difficulties, the US Air Force has a well-established grasp on the current cyberspace battleground. Yet, it must fully account for the nature of cyber dependency and the implications it holds for the expanding cyber battleground of the future.

Self-Induced Dependency

The F-35 Lightning II is one of the most complicated weapons systems ever developed, a sleek and stealthy fighter jet years in the making that is often called a flying computer because of its more than 8 million lines of code. —Christian Davenport, Washington Post

While the space domain is the first to be wholly dependent upon cyber, it will not remain the only one. In the air domain, remotely piloted aircraft are an excellent example of a weapon system that is wholly cyber dependent.14 Even the newest manned fighter aircraft, the F-35, has been described as a flying computer; furthermore, while the Army develops personal drones, smart exoskeletons, and computerized rifles, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is developing pack-mule robots, and the Navy is creating its own autonomous drones, including both submarines and aircraft.15

While those efforts will certainly enhance war-fighting capabilities, increased cyber dependency also comes at a cost. The cost may be paid in increased risk to the missions that these technologies support or in deliberate security and active defense of the newly dependent systems.16 In each example, the inherent risks introduced by cyber dependency are monumental. In the civilian world, hackers have already been able to take control of vehicles (most notably gaining full remote control of the latest Jeep models), smart guns, and hobby drones. They have even infiltrated the internal networks of commercial aircraft.17 For the cyber squadron of the future, security and defense of local weapon systems—from land and air to space— must be a priority (fig. 3).

Figure 3. From communications to cyber. (Based in part on briefing, Lt Col David Canady, subject: Cyber Squadron of the Future, Headquarters US Air Force / A6CF, May 2014, http://www.safcioa6.af.mil/shared /media/document/AFD-140512-040.pdf.)

One particularly thorny challenge for those cyber operators will be the requirement to perform cyber operations on the live network of a weapon system, but this challenge can and must be overcome.18

Choosing not to secure and defend is the riskiest choice of all. In cyberspace, the longer any vulnerability exists in an unmitigated form, the greater the odds that it will be weaponized and exploited by an adversary. By some measures the process, from discovery to weaponization and attack, takes hackers little more than one week to complete.19

Cybersecurity concerns have not yet stopped the Department of Defense from procuring weapons that are increasingly cyber dependent. In the civilian world, regular consumers also seem to not yet be dissuaded by security concerns.

Market-Driven Cyber Dependency

These characteristics and conditions present a paradox within cyberspace: the prosperity and security of our nation have been significantly enhanced by our use of cyberspace, yet these same developments have led to increased vulnerabilities and a critical dependence on cyberspace, for the US in general and the joint force in particular. —Joint Publication 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations, 5 February 2013

Market forces in the civilian world are rapidly driving many categories of consumer products towards the “Internet of Things” (IoT). By 2020 it is estimated that there will be between 50 and 100 billion devices that are networked to each other across the world, creating an IoT.20

From refrigerators to coffeepots and thermostats, the commercial marketplace is growing increasingly flooded with Internet-aware devices of all types.21 Arguably, the preponderance of devices in the marketplace in the near future will be Internet-aware, making it difficult for a discerning consumer such as the Department of Defense to find noncomputerized alternatives.22 This will leave the military with difficult choices to make regarding the trade-off between accepting risk or accepting the costs associated with cybersecurity and defense of these newly networked refrigerators and coffeepots.

If we accept that in the future a much higher percentage of devices, infrastructure, and systems will have computer networking capabilities that are either a permanent part of military installations (such as supervisory control and data acquisition [SCADA]) or will regularly enter military installations (such as smart watches and self-driving cars), then those devices will become a de facto part of the cyber battlespace.

It is the cyber squadron of the future that should be relied upon to secure and defend those devices. Efficiencies provided by organizational and structural changes such as the move to the joint information environment, as well as new technologies such as software-defined networking, may free up many of the resources required to allow the cyber squadron of the future to secure and defend the expanded cyber terrain; however, additional investment and reforms will also be needed to sustain these new requirements.23

Winning Tomorrow’s Fight

Given the speedy movement towards greater cyber dependency throughout the military, it is critical that Air Force Space Command examine and consider the following recommendations for the cyber and space force-development systems.24

Leverage Big Data for Decision Making

Air Force Space Command should develop three standard tests and should implement them throughout the force-development process to assess both space and cyber Airmen. The first test should be for cyber proficiency and propensity only. This test would measure a recruit’s or trainee’s potential to comprehend cyber concepts and acquire cyber skills, regardless of formal cyber training.25 The second and third tests would be knowledge based—one for knowledge applicable to cyberspace operations and the other applicable to space. Initially, it may be impossible to determine exactly what cyber proficiency looks like. This is acceptable and should not dissuade the command from undertaking this effort. As scores for all three tests are compiled, they must be associated with members and tracked alongside other metrics to determine how scores appear to correlate to a given individual’s success, mediocrity, or failure. The process of data compilation and analysis should continually inform a cyclical reevaluation of the tests to ensure that they adequately assess ability and knowledge.

Pertinent data points that should be associated with test scores fall into three major categories: education, training, and experience. By combining proficiency and knowledge test scores with data points from these three categories, Air Force Space Command will gain powerful insight into how to prioritize education, training, and experience when it makes force-development decisions. By strategically retesting Airmen, the command can gain insight into how specific training events or educational milestones affect or do not affect scores.26

Mission-Specific Cyber Training

Air Force Space Command is close to having implemented the optimal framework for an initial, intermediate, and advanced training system for cyberspace operations. The current focus on mission-specific intermediate training as opposed to general intermediate training and on-the-job training is a great leap in the right direction.27 Increased cyber dependencies will create the need for many additional mission-specific training courses such as SCADA and IoT defensive operations, as well as intermediate cyber defensive training that is specific to various Air Force land, space, and air mission systems.

For enlisted Airmen, the 1B initial training course should be split between a combined 3D and 1B initial training course and intermediate training courses that are specific to the mission requirements that 1B and 3D Airmen will encounter. The 3D career fields should not be left out of the operationalization of the communications career fields because they play important roles in the security and defense of the cyber battleground and will continue to do so. Efforts to divide training requirements between the 3D and 1B career fields should follow the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education Framework.28 While training for enlisted 3D and 1B Airmen will diverge fairly quickly after the basics, there must be a set of core “operational cyber” fundamentals shared by the two career tracks.29

Specialized Training for Cyber-Dependent Operators

For those noncyber officers whose mission sets have high levels of cyber dependency, such as space operations personnel and remotely piloted aircraft pilots, opportunities should be made available for them to attend the intermediate and advanced cyber training that is applicable to their mission. Program acceptance for noncyber Airmen should be based in part on their cyber proficiency and knowledge test scores.

Just as there is an advantage provided by having weapons officers who are proficient across the spectrum of weapon systems, so would it be advantageous to have officers in cyber-dependent missions who are also proficient in cyber operations.30 A program similar in many ways to the one offered by the USAF Weapons School but with a smaller footprint should be established to strategically place graduates within their cyber-dependent career fields.31

Work to Expand Industry Partnership Opportunities

Air Force Space Command should work with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (SAF/AQ) and the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) to create a special pipeline for officer and enlisted Airmen in the space and cyber career fields to tour in the Education with Industry (EWI) program. If this cannot be accomplished, Air Force Space Command should consider establishing a similar program, focused on bringing cutting-edge innovation and specialized skills back to the military while expanding ties with industry partners.

Graduates of the EWI program not only help close the technology and skills gap between the military and the private sector but also help increase cooperation and strengthen ties between the two sectors at a critical time for space and cyberspace.32 Air Force Space Command should focus on embedding officer and enlisted Airmen within corporations that are at the forefront of space and cyberspace technology and should press to expand outside the list of traditional cleared defense contractors.

Though the EWI program is not generally made available to enlisted Airmen, space and cyberspace require unique technical skills that can be developed and grown during an EWI tour. While an officer in the EWI program may develop unique leadership skills and pick up innovative ideas, correctly placed enlisted Airmen could bolster their coding or other technical skills that are specific to their mission and career field.

These efforts would be in line with Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s initiative to increase innovation in the Department of Defense and strengthen military and industry ties.33 In addition to coordination with SAF/AQ and AFIT on the EWI program, Air Force Space Command should seek to develop direct ties with De- fense Innovation Unit X, the new Department of Defense cell in Silicon Valley.34 Because Unit X will primarily develop and strengthen industry ties in the area of cyber operations, Air Force Space Command would benefit from coordinating with Unit X on force development of cyberspace operators.35

Encourage New Forms of Education and Training

The civilian market for Internet-based microdegrees, nanodegrees, and other forms of short-term, topic-specific training has greatly increased cost-effective education and training opportunities for Airmen to leverage.36 Shorter than an associate degree but longer than a traditional training course, microdegrees and other new forms of Internet-based learning have proliferated in recent years. Air Force Space Command should actively embrace and explore this trend as a way to train and educate space and cyber Airmen.

Partnerships with online learning companies such as Udacity, Coursera, edX, or other massive open online course (MOOC) providers may yield opportunities for Airmen to gain topical education and training customized to the needs of Air Force Space Command, with much lower entry costs and time barriers for students.37

Traditional education still has a very important role to play, but Air Force Space Command should take active steps to investigate how these education technologies are changing the civilian education market.38 Microdegrees can provide Airmen with a far more agile, topical, and responsive form of education that also allows them to stay up to date in the rapidly advancing field of information technology. Beyond individualized education and training, partnerships between Air Force Space Command and MOOC companies could provide a relatively cost-efficient way to train space and cyber Airmen on the whole.39

Extensive Investment in the Cyber Training Corps

Of all the war-fighting domains, cyber’s exponentially changing terrain makes “teaching cyber” a challenging task over time. Comparatively, very little changes year-to-year as pilots are trained in air operations or as space operators are trained in space operations, yet course material in the cyber domain may become outdated within months.40

Just as an individual operator’s skills and knowledge will atrophy far more rap- idly than in the other domains, so will material developed for training and education.41 For every instructor assigned to a cyber instructional course, Air Force Space Command should consider assigning a second member whose responsibilities include rapid revision of course material based on changing circumstances in the cyber domain and tuning based on analysis of student feedback and performance.

While the instructor handles instruction, grading, and administration, a course developer would be tasked to ensure that course instruction remains timely and relevant. Whenever possible, course developers should be embedded with operational units and/or industry partners in the private sector for short bursts of time to retain cutting-edge knowledge and skills.42 Like an information system with known vulnerabilities, cyber instructional courses cannot afford to remain static; instead, they must be treated like a constantly evolving system. For every cadre of instructors, there should be an equally large or greater cadre of course developers handling this function.

Conclusion

Of all the war-fighting domains, cyberspace is the most rapidly changing. These changes are driving Air Force missions and weapon systems towards greater cyber- space and space dependency. By understanding, anticipating, and posturing for greater degrees of cyber dependency throughout the force, Air Force Space Command will develop space and cyber Airmen who are ready to prevail in the cyber battleground of the future.

Air Force Space Command should consider the advantages of leveraging big data for decision making, continuing to develop mission-specific cyber training, making cyber training available to operators in cyber-dependent missions, strengthening ties with industry partners, encouraging new forms of education and training, and investing heavily in an expanded cyberspace training cadre. These investments, some small and some large, would yield sizable dividends when Air Force Space Command suddenly finds itself immersed in the cyber battleground of the future. It is possible to imagine, at some near-distant point in the future, an Air Force that is wholly dependent on space and cyberspace. It is equally possible to envision an Air Force whose cyber defense capabilities are far greater than the new threats that these space and cyber dependencies will pose. The time to begin overcoming the challenges of cyber dependency is now.

The views and opinions expressed or implied in the Journal are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of the Department of Defense, Air Force, Air Education and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US government.

About the author:
*2nd Lt Chris Babcock, USAF, (BS, Indiana University) is the crew commander and deputy section chief for the 50th Space Communications Squadron’s Air Force Satellite Control Network, Network Operations Security Center. He is a cyberspace operations officer with a special interest in network defense and intelligence integration.

This article (PDF) was originally published in the Air and Space Power Journal Volume 30, Issue 5, November – December 2015, pps 61-73.

Notes
1. Degrees of cyber dependency may be used to describe any military capability, technology, or strategy. Supremacy in the cyberspace domain is analogous to air supremacy and is defined by the author as the degree of cyber superiority over a portion or segment of cyberspace wherein the oppos- ing cyber force is incapable of effective interference.
2. Market forces will drive the military to secure and defend a larger battlespace, but the Depart- ment of Defense itself will also deliberately expand the cyber battlespace in a much more consequen- tial way.
3. Joint Publication (JP) 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations, 5 February 2013, http://www.dtic.mil /doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_12R.pdf. JP 3-12 refers to this as the “[unique] relationship” between space and cyberspace. The author calls this “domain cyber dependency” because all operations in the space domain presently rely on cyberspace supremacy.
4. Ibid.; and JP 3-14, Space Operations, 29 May 2013, http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs /jp3_14.pdf.
5. JP 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations, defines cyberspace as “many different and often overlapping networks, as well as the nodes (any device or logical location with an internet protocol [IP] address or other analogous identifier) on those networks, and the system data (such as routing tables) that support them” (I-2).
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid. With regard to space operations, the physical network layer of cyberspace includes the infor- mation systems with which space operators perform command and control operations and receive and analyze telemetry; the circuits connecting those information systems to the ground equipment; the ground equipment itself, which prepares and sends data to the space vehicle; and the space vehicles themselves. The logical network layer of cyberspace is embedded in each piece of the physical network. When space operators change configurations on or send commands to any part of the physical network layer, encrypt or decrypt transmissions, or perform data aggregation and analysis, they are operating within the logical network layer of cyberspace. To some degree, these actions may be considered cyber- space operations. The cyber-persona layer describes the space operators who rely on the physical and logical network layers to perform space operations. The cyber-persona layer also includes potential ad- versaries who may disrupt space operations through their own cyberspace operations.
8. Damon Poeter, “How Moore’s Law Changed History (and Your Smartphone),” PC, 19 April 2015, http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2482133,00.asp.
9. JP 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations; and Mark Pomerleau, “Army Cyber Chief Outlines Key Chal- lenges, Goals,” Defense Systems, 18 March 2015, http://defensesystems.com/Articles/2015/03/18 /Army-cyber-Cardon-outlines-challenges-goals.aspx.
10. Max Boot, “The Paradox of Military Technology,” New Atlantis, no. 14 (Fall 2006): 13–32.
11. Jose Pagliery, “Love, Not War: Pentagon Courts Silicon Valley,” CNN, 23 April 2015, http:// money.cnn.com/2015/04/23/technology/security/military-silicon-valley/.
12. Lt Col Gregory Conti and Col John “Buck” Surdu, “Army, Navy, Air Force, and Cyber—Is It Time for a Cyberwarfare Branch of Military?,” IAnewsletter 12, no. 1 (Spring 2009): 14–18; and Andrew Phillips, “The Asymmetric Nature of Cyber Warfare,” US Naval Institute, 14 October 2012, http://news .usni.org/2012/10/14/asymmetric-nature-cyber-warfare.
13. JP 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations.
14. Katia Moskvitch, “Are Drones the Next Target for Hackers?,” BBC, 6 February 2014, http://www.bbc .com/future/story/20140206-can-drones-be-hacked; and Aliya Sternstein, “How to Hack a Military Drone,” DefenseOne, 29 April 2015, http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/04/how-hack-military -drone/111391/.
15. Christian Davenport, “Meet the Most Fascinating Part of the F-35: The $400,000 Helmet,” Wash- ington Post, 1 April 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/04/01/meet-the -most-fascinating-part-of-the-f-35-the-400000-helmet/; “Insects Inspire Military Mini Drones,” Fox News,
18 September 2014, http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2014/09/18/insects-inspire-military-mini-drones/; Joyce P. Brayboy, “Army Researcher’s Interest in Robots Leads to Innovative Device,” US Army, 2 July 2015, http://www.army.mil/article/151527; Terri Moon Cronk, “Robot to Serve as Future Military’s ‘Pack Mule,’ ” US Department of Defense, 19 December 2012, http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle .aspx?ID=118838; Brendan McGarry, “U.S. Military Begins Testing ‘Smart’ Rifles,” DefenseTech, 15 January 2014, http://defensetech.org/2014/01/15/u-s-military-begins-testing-smart-rifles/; and Kris Osborn, “Navy to Deploy First Underwater Drones from Submarines,” Military.com, 13 April 2015, http://www .military.com/daily-news/2015/04/13/navy-to-deploy-first-underwater-drones-from-submarines.html.
16. Cybersecurity is most commonly understood to be compliance related, such as the manage- ment of vulnerabilities and the implementation of protective measures. This contrasts with active de- fense, which is the implementation of defensive measures or maneuvers in anticipation of, during, or after a cyber incident or engagement with an adversary.
17. “The Pentagon Got Hacked While You Were at Def Con,” Wired, 9 August 2015, http://www .wired.com/2015/08/security-news-week-pentagon-got-hacked-def-con/; Andy Greenberg, “Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—with Me in It,” Wired, 21 July 2015, http://www.wired .com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/; Kim Zetter, “Is It Possible for Passengers to Hack Commercial Aircraft?,” Wired, 26 May 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/05/possible-passengers -hack-commercial-aircraft/; and Hallie Golden, “Security Experts Point to OPM’s Biggest Cybersecurity Failure,” NextGov, 21 July 2015, http://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2015/07/security-experts -point-opms-biggest-cybersecurity-failure/118274/. In each of these examples, the exploits were uncovered by security researchers, not professional “militarized” hackers. If a well-organized, advanced, persis- tent threat were to commit its resources to similar targets, the results would likely be far severer.
18. JP 3-12 (R), Cyberspace Operations. Traditionally, the bulk of defendable battlespace in the cyber- space domain has been communications infrastructure that provides support to the primary mission. One implication of greater cyber dependency will be that the defendable battlespace will expand to include the mission systems themselves. The challenge posed is that intuitively, friendly disruption to the mission would be more likely while defensively operating on a mission or weapon system than it would be while defending communications infrastructure.
19. Recorded Future Special Intelligence Desk, “Week to Weak: The Weaponization of Cyber Vul- nerabilities,” Ref ID: 2014-02 (Somerville, MA: Recorded Future, 4 December 2014), http://go.recorded future.com/week-to-weak-report. The “Week to Weak” report, published in late 2014, illustrates the rapid speed at which vulnerabilities are now weaponized and seen in the wild. Analysis by Recorded Future found that the median number of days for a vulnerability to be exploited is only 7.5. For refer- ence, the report cites the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as publishing roughly 7,000 newly known vulnerabilities in 2014. This illustrates the incredible speed at which cybersecurity measures such as vulnerability management must occur to maintain risk at appropriate levels.
20. “Standards Are Making the Internet of Things Come Alive,” IEEE Standards Association, 8 April 2013, http://standardsinsight.com/ieee_company_detail/standards_iot; and Dr. W. Charlton Adams Jr., “The Internet of Things and the Connected Person,” Wired, December 2014, http://www.wired.com /insights/2014/12/iot-connected-person/.
21. Klint Finley, “Hacked Fridges Aren’t the Internet of Things’ Biggest Worry,” Wired, 12 March 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/03/hacked-fridges-arent-internet-things-biggest-worry/; Bill Wasik, “In the Programmable World, All Our Objects Will Act as One,” Wired, 14 May 2013, http://www.wired .com/2013/05/internet-of-things-2/; and Dan Saffer, “The Wonderful Possibilities of Connecting Your Fridge to the Internet,” Wired, 29 October 2014, http://www.wired.com/2014/10/is-your-refrigerator -running/.
22. If the public is not dissuaded by privacy and security concerns, consumer preference for smart devices from self-driving cars to networked refrigerators should provide supplying firms a competitive advantage. If this is the case, competitors to those “first-mover” firms may seek to adopt the same tech- nology or develop their own, potentially commoditizing the technology itself and driving out non- adopting alternatives from the market.
23. Cade Metz, “Mavericks Invent Future Internet Where Cisco Is Meaningless,” Wired, 16 April 2012, http://www.wired.com/2012/04/nicira/; and Klint Finley, “GE’s New Cloud Must Be the Most Tempting Hacker Bait Ever,” Wired, 5 August 15, http://www.wired.com/2015/08/ges-new-cloud-may -tempting-hacker-bait-ever/.
24. Since space operations are overwhelmingly reliant on cyberspace supremacy, several but not all of these recommendations are cyber-centric.
25. A cyber proficiency test would likely assess logic-based problem solving as well as abstract thinking, two skills required for success in cyberspace (and in space).
26. Critically, these tests should not be used to affect the career vectoring of individuals during the first several years of implementation. Over time, as the tests are refined and conclusions are able to be teased out of data points, they will become useful in making those decisions. Drawing conclusions too quickly and making vectoring decisions during the refinement process would skew the results and only lead to foregone conclusions rather than provide true insight.
27. Capt Kinder Blacke, “Intermediate Network Warfare Training Up and Running,” Air Force Space Command, 3 March 2011, http://www.afspc.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123245023; and SSgt Jarrod Chavana, “Airmen Train for ‘New Wild, Wild West’ in Cyber Domain,” Santa Maria Times, 10 October 2014, http://santamariatimes.com/news/local/military/airmen-train-for-new-wild-wild-west-in-cyber -domain/article_1633ec02-eb22-54e5-ad04-f4bea53b776c.html.
28. “National Cybersecurity Workforce Framework,” National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education, accessed 15 October 2015, http://csrc.nist.gov/nice/framework/.
29. In addition to being informed by the NIST standards, initial and intermediate training for en- listed Airmen should be informed by operational techniques used in the joint community, such as the plan, brief, execute, debrief (PBED) process.
30. J. R. Wilson, “Interview: Col. Robert ‘Shark’ Garland, Commandant, USAF Weapons School,” Defense Media Network, 6 November 2011, http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/interview -col-robert-%E2%80%9Cshark%E2%80%9D-garland-commandant-usaf-weapons-school/.
31. Entry into the program and placement following the program could be managed very similarly to the procedures of the USAF Weapons School, without the need to develop an entire training pro- gram that is separate from the traditional intermediate and advanced cyber courses that are specific to the graduate’s mission.
32. Jim Garamone, “Winnefeld: DoD Must Strengthen Public, Private Ties,” US Department of De- fense, 14 May 2015, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128810; and Kevin Gilmartin, “Education with Industry Program Offers Different Perspective,” Air Force Print News, 14 March 2008, http://www.hanscom.af.mil/news/story_print.asp?id=123090306.
33. Cheryl Pellerin, “Carter Seeks Tech-Sector Partnerships for Innovation,” US Department of De- fense, 23 April 2015, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128655.
34. Mark Pomerleau, “Carter Details DoD’s Innovation Plans,” Defense Systems, 6 May 2015, https://defensesystems.com/articles/2015/05/06/carter-dod-innovation-plans-congress.aspx; and Patrick Tucker, “Pentagon Sets Up a Silicon Valley Outpost,” Defense One, 23 April 2015, http://www.defenseone .com/technology/2015/04/pentagon-sets-silicon-valley-outpost/110845/.
35. Pomerleau, “Carter Details DoD’s Innovation Plans.”
36. Stuart M. Butler, “How Google and Coursera May Upend the Traditional College Degree,” Brookings Institution, 23 February 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/techtank/posts/2015/02/23-mooc -google-coursera-butler/.
37. Ibid.
38. In addition to partnering with the companies themselves, an examination of the underlying tech- nology and methods may illustrate efficiencies that could be implemented in military-led training courses.
39. Jeffrey R. Young, “Will MOOCs Change the Way Professors Handle the Classroom?,” Chronicle of Higher Education, 7 November 2013, http://chronicle.com/article/Will-MOOCs-Change-Campus/142869/.
40. Conti and Surdu, “Army, Navy, Air Force, and Cyber,” 14–18.
41. Ibid.
42. Semiregularly, instructors and course developers should rotate between their respective func-
tions to retain currency in each.

What an unpalatable irony. The 1783 Treaty of Paris ended the Revolutionary War and created the United States. The 2015 Treaty of Paris could end what’s left of our democratic USA – and complete the “fundamental transformation” that the Obama Administration intends to impose by executive fiat.

Meanwhile, as a prelude to Paris, October 24 marked a full ten years since a category 3-5 hurricane last hit the United States. (Hurricane Wilma in 2005; Sandy hit as a Category 2.) That’s a record dating back at least to 1900. It’s also the first time since 1914 that no hurricanes formed anywhere in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico through September 22 of any calendar year.

Global temperatures haven’t risen in 18 years and are more out of sync with computer model predictions with every passing year. Seas are rising at barely seven inches a century. Droughts and other “extreme weather events” are less frequent, severe and long-lasting than during the twentieth century. “Vanishing” Arctic and Greenland ice is freezing at historical rates, and growing at a record pace in Antarctica.

But President Obama still insists that dangerous climate change is happening now, and it is a “dereliction of duty” for military officers to deny that climate change “is an immediate risk to our national security.”

Meanwhile, the Washington Post intones: “Republicans’ most potent argument against acting on climate change – that other nations won’t cut emissions, so US efforts are useless – is crumbling. The European Union has had overlapping climate policies in place for years. China, the world’s largest emitter, continues to fill in details about how it will meet the landmark climate targets it announced a year ago. World negotiators are set to convene in Paris in November to bundle commitments from dozens of nations into a single agreement that should set the world on a path toward lower emissions.”

Right. A path toward less plant fertilizing carbon dioxide, to prevent “unprecedented disasters” that aren’t happening (except in SimPlanet computer models), by stabilizing a perpetually changing climate that is driven by powerful natural forces over which humans have no control – under a 2015 Paris treaty that will inflict global governance by unelected activists and bureaucrats, bring lower living standards to billions, and initiate wealth redistribution of at least $100 billion a year to ruling elites in poor countries.

For once, President Obama wants America to play a leadership role, through a war on carbon-based energy that his own EPA admits will reduce hypothetical global warming by an undetectable 0.02 degrees 85 years from now. If we slash our fossil fuel use, he insists, the rest of the world will follow. It’s delusional.
For once, we should lead from behind – instead of with brains in our behinds. A brief recap of what other nations are actually doing underscores how absurd and deceitful the White House, EPA and Post are.

European nations and the European Union have long claimed bragging rights for “leading the world” on “climate stabilization,” by replacing hydrocarbon fuels with renewable energy. Their efforts have done little to persuade poor nations to follow suit – but have sent EU energy prices skyrocketing, cost millions of Euro jobs and made the EU increasingly uncompetitive globally. Now Europe says it will make an additional 40% emissions reduction by 2030, but only if a new Paris agreement is legally binding on all countries.

However, two months ago, China, India and Russia refused to sign a nonbinding US-sponsored statement calling for greater international cooperation to combat hypothetical warming and climate change. And virtually all developing countries oppose any agreement that calls for binding emission targets or even “obligatory review mechanisms” of their voluntary efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

What they do want is a treaty that guarantees $100 billion per year for climate change “mitigation, adaptation and compensation,” plus modern energy technologies given to them at no cost. And that appears to be only the opening ante. India environment minister Prakash Javadekar recently said “the bill for climate action for the world is not just $100 billion. It is in trillions of dollars per year.” Developed nations are “historically responsible” for climate change, he argues, and must ensure “justice” for developing countries by fully funding the Green Climate Fund. India alone must receive $2.5 trillion!

So far, pledges to the fund total just $700 million – and Prime Minister David Cameron has said Britain would provide a one-time contribution of only $9 million. He has called renewable energy “green crap” and plans to end all “green” subsidies by 2025, to reduce electricity prices that have sent millions of families into energy poverty and caused the loss of thousands of jobs in the UK steelmaking sector.

Germany’s reliance on coal continues to rise; it now generates 44% of its electricity from the black rock – more than any other EU nation. In Poland, Prime Minister Eva Kopacz says nuclear energy is no longer a priority, and her country’s energy security will instead focus increasingly on coal.

But it is in Asia where coal use and CO2 emissions will soar the most – underscoring how completely detached from reality the White House, EPA and Washington Post are.

China now gets some 75% of its electricity from coal. Its coal consumption declined slightly in 2014, as the Middle Kingdom turned slightly to natural gas and solar, for PR and to reduce serious air quality problems. However, it plans to build 363 new coal-fired power plants, with many plants likely outfitted or retrofitted with scrubbers and other equipment to reduce emissions of real, health-impairing pollution.

India will focus on “energy efficiency” and reduce its CO2 “emission intensity” (per unit of growth), but not its overall emissions. It will also boost its reliance on wind and solar power, mostly for remote areas that will not be connected to the subcontinent’s growing electrical grid anytime soon. However, it plans to open a new coal mine every month and double its coal production and use by 2020.

Pakistan is taking a similar path – as are Vietnam, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations. Even Japan plans to build 41 new coal-fired units over the next decade. Overall, says the International Energy Agency, Southeast Asia’s energy demand will soar 80% by 2040, and fossil fuels will provide some 80% of the region’s total energy mix by that date.

Africa will pursue a similar route to lifting its people out of poverty. No more solar panels on huts. The continent has abundant oil, coal and natural gas – and it intends to utilize those fuels, while it demands its “fair share” of free technology, “capacity building,” and climate “reparation” money.

During the 2011 UN climate conference in Durban, all nations agreed that the next treaty would have legally binding emission targets and mandatory reviews of emission reduction progress. They also set up the Green Climate Fund wealth redistribution scheme. Now those CO2-reduction pledges are in history’s dustbin, because developing nations believe they have the upper hand in any climate negotiations.

They’re probably right. President Obama told 60 Minutes his definition of leadership is “leading on climate change,” and he desperately wants a legacy beyond his Iran, Iraq, Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Bowe Bergdahl and economic disasters. Moreover, Western nations have created a climate monster and Climate Crisis Industry, which must be appeased with perpetual sacrifices: expensive, unreliable energy, fewer jobs, lower living standards and more dead people. No wonder Asian and African countries expect to get trillions of dollars, free energy technology, and a free pass from any binding commitments.

Voters, consumers, elected officials and courts must wake up and take action. House Speaker Paul Ryan, members of Congress, governors, business leaders and presidential candidates need to learn the facts, communicate forcefully, repudiate destructive energy and climate policies – and let the world know the Senate will reject any Obama treaty that binds the USA to slashing emissions and transferring its wealth.
Above all, they must debunk, defund and demolish the mountains of anti-fossil fuel, anti-job, anti-growth, anti-family regulations that Obama & Co. have imposed – or plan to impose before they leave office – in the name of preventing a climate crisis that exists only in their minds and models.

By Evelyn Estrada

On September 29, 15,000 people from the mountainous Peruvian regions of Apurimac and Cusco broke into Las Bambas mining camp, which is a $7.4 billion USD Chinese-owned copper mine being developed in the region. The protesters are deeply troubled over the mining project’s environmental impact and the lack of consultation with the surrounding unsettled communities.[1] MMG Limited (Minerals and Metals Group), a Chinese-based firm, planned to continue to develop build a plant to process the mining ore near their communities rather than transport it by pipe, raising concerns over potential environmental damage that could be done to the surrounding area.[2] Glencore Xstrata, the Swiss-based company that held the prior master contract over the Las Bambas project, had intended to transport extracted minerals to the coast by pipeline. However, under new Chinese ownership, which took control in 2014, altered the design to transport the ore by truck. MMG Limited took this decision without any previous consultation with the impacted indigenous communities, as is required by law.

To deal with the ‘disturbances,’ the Peruvian government sent about 1,500 police officers and 150 members of the military to the Apurimac region to arrest members of the rural communities who were participating in peaceful rallies. According to Uriel Condori, a councilor official of the government of Challhuahuacho, police officers fired tear gas and live rounds at the peaceful protest demonstration, killing five people, while injuring at least 20 others. In the wake of the bloodletting, President Ollanta Humala declared a 30-day state of emergency over the Cotabambas province, where the Challhuahuacho district is located, and six others, suspending the constitutional rights of freedom of movement and assembly.[3]

The Apurimac mining protest is the first of its kind in this highly impoverished region, but a number of these disturbances have been taking place since President Humala took office in 2011.[4] Humala has struggled to resolve rural opposition in local communities to mining activity, suspending several large projects after violent clashes between protesters and police had broken out. While he campaigned on a promise of protecting the lives of the people, the president has more recently emphasized the importance of protecting public goods and private property.[5] Humala has made clear that communities, such as Apurimac and Cusco, will not be permitted to prevent extraction programs from going forward, re-emphasizing that he seems to care more about foreign investment than the lives of Peruvians.

Ronald Bello, who heads the Defense Front of Tambobamba, demanded an explanation of the modifications made to the environmental impact assessment, citing that there was no previous consultation with any of the nearby communities.[6] Local communities of the Apurimac region order that MMG Limited not move forward with the construction of the pipeline (which would threaten the surrounding areas by transporting ore), the molybdenum plant in Fuerabamba (which could pollute Challhuahuacho river), and plant filters in Apurimac.[7]

The rural communities of the Apurimac and Cusco regions want the consideration of the benefits and hazards moved fully into the public sphere. There is no question that mines will directly impact their lives, as well as their livelihoods. According to the President of the Chamber of Commerce of Lima, Jorge Von Wedemeyer, community groups feel that they have been neglected by the Peruvian state, citing the lack of discussion in the development plan regarding the possible repercussions of the mining projects in their districts.[8] This lack of rural community Peruvian government policy is nothing new; this phenomenon can only fully be appreciated in the context of Peru’s recent history, especially during the disruptive presidency of Alberto Fujimori epoch in the 1990s.

Consequences of Land Privatization under Fujimori

In the autogolpe (self-coup) of 1992, Fujimori shut down civilian courts, and other representative institutions, as well as undermined constitutional rights and protections in order to impose his authoritarian mandate over the Peruvian government.[9] Promising modest reforms, Fujimori imposed detrimental economic policies that deregulated financial and labor markets, reduced tariffs, privatized public enterprises, and reduced tax evasion.[10] Within a few years, President Fujimori had created a raw, free market economy by dismantling a fragile Peruvian state that benefited few economic actors while hurting the majority of local citizens.

There is no doubt that the Fujimori regime hurt the majority of Peruvian citizens through the enactment of ruthless economic reforms, causing it to be the most corrupt regime in modern Peruvian history. During this period, $1.5 to $4 billion were lost due to corruption.[11] The illicit privatization of public enterprises accumulated a total of $6 billion, of which almost $2 billion were used to buy illegal weaponry for combat in Peru’s war with Ecuador in 1995. Furthermore, another $2 billion were used to pay the foreign debt instead of properly allocating them to the public sector.[12] Instead of making himself available for his constituents, Fujimori stripped them from any government social programs, as well as confiscated rural land for the benefit of his technocratic cabinet.

The country’s newly crafted neoliberal-oriented economy made it possible for the state to sell government enterprises, including worker-owned cooperatives, at the expense of the people. In 1995, Congress passed Decree Law 26505 that sought private investment to promote the development of economic activities on national territory, as well as rural and indigenous communities.[13] Imposing his despotic authority over the rural areas, Fujimori attempted to withdraw approximately 75 percent of territorial land under cooperative and communal forms of ownership. By doing so, Fujimori attempted to reverse the efforts made by General Velasco in establishing a regime of cooperative land ownership, in which local cooperatives would coordinate agricultural production throughout the country.[14] Fujimori moved to violently overturn decades of legal norms designed to protect the rural communities throughout Peru. Previous constraints were dismantled by allowing protected land areas to be sold and distributed, leaving a large concentration of land in the hands of a relatively few number of residents.

In 1996, the National Mining Cadastre Law (Law 26615) was enacted, guaranteeing foreign mining firms exclusive control of the necessary land resources to implement their operations, as well as eliminating many previous mining-claim procedures that the law required.[15] The restructuring of the economy enabled the government to grant many liberties to the mining companies, while limiting those of Peruvian citizens. Alarmingly, Fujimori also made every possible effort to constrain the rights of his fellow Peruvians to protect their territories, along with their spelled out rights.

International Realm Assisting Indigenous Communities

Over the years, Peruvian government officials have attempted to move away from the harshness of the Fujimori era with its laws directed at the indigenous people by ratifying International Labor Organization (ILO) Convention 169, which recognizes the rights of the indigenous to participate in the discussion of any measurements that may affect them.[16] Peru is among the limited number of countries in the world (one of 20) that has ratified the convention, according to the ILO.[17]

Article 4 of the Convention states that governments should adopt specific measures in order to preserve the property, culture, and environment of indigenous people, as well as restrain foreign mining companies from going against the wishes of such communities.[18] Article 6 of the Convention requires that local participants freely participate in political processes that affect them, such as development projects.[19]

Disempowering Local Community Actors

The transformation of the Peruvian economy unfortunately increased the non-responsive strength of the private sector while weakening that of the public sector, which had relied on heavy state intervention. Today, mining exports amount to 55.2 percent of Peru’s total exports.[20] Despite the country’s mining operations being labeled by scholars Jeffrey Bury and Adam Kolff as the “primary axis for national economic development,”[21] many mining zones show high levels of poverty, and are plagued by environmental damages.

There are other issues as well. ILO Convention 169 requires mining companies to reach an agreement with local landowners.[22] Companies are expected to compensate the impacted communities for any environmental consequences that may affect them. Most mining companies, however, do not enter into negotiations with the locals with an open mind, leaving them to deal alone with reduced agricultural productivity, increased poverty and health problems, along with tainted water supplies.[23] Transnational mining operations are altering the lives of local populations without input or consent, despite laws that mandate negotiations.

Although international law underscores the importance of dialogue between both parties in establishing parameters for carrying out mining projects, Peruvian laws actually serve to severely limit the protection granted to these communities. In 1995, under the authoritative rule of the Fujimori administration, La Ley de Tierras (Law of the Land) was enacted as one of the most threatening laws directed at indigenous communities, in which the autonomy of indigenous peoples were, in reality, trivialized. The law stated that the land rights of the indigenous people were revoked, that their land could be sold, and that any land deemed by the government as not being effectively used would be confiscated.[24] Furthermore, the state made clear that if a community is in debt, its lands could be legally seized.[25] Allowing the government to define what land is going unused enables the government to sell these mineral-rich lands to transnational mining corporations. In prioritizing direct investment, the Peruvian government has denied basic rights to its citizens.

Conclusion

On October 7, the Peruvian government reached an agreement with community leaders from the Apurimac and Cusco regions to end their strike against Las Bambas. The government agreed to lift the state of emergency declared on September 28 and withdraw police forces from the region once the strike against the private sector comes to an end.[26] The Ministry of Housing has pledged to provide housing and social welfare for the families of protesters killed in the anti-mining movement. Most important, the government has committed to holding workshops in Quechua to clarify the environmental implications of a proposed molybdenum plant.[27]

President Humala is content that the agreement was based on dialogue, yet he does not acknowledge that the protest was a product of miscommunication between locals and MMG Limited. Neoliberalization of the economy, along with liberalization of Peruvian laws directed at nullifying the rights of indigenous people, have resulted in the creation of a country with insufficient indigenous incorporation in the determination of development projects in their communities.

Despite having run on an environmentally conscious platform, President Humala has approved more than a dozen controversial extraction programs without any previous consultation of the communities in which the projects would take place.[28] Consequently, these mining projects have to now face high levels of resentment by local community actors, and resulted in the deaths of at least 57 anti-mining activists between 2002 and 2014.[29] Since Humala has disregarded the basic rights of indigenous communities to act as political actors in development project negotiations, otherwise it is considered a direct violation of the ILO Convention 169.

The demonstration against Las Bambas was the second this year for which the Peruvian government has found it necessary to declare a state of emergency. These social crises may have most likely been prevented if MMG limited had observed national and international laws that called for prior consultation with indigenous communities. Indigenous actors have had to form organizations defending the well-being of their communities, since the government habitually has refused to act on their behalf. Because the government has not provided indigenous people a seat at the table, the Apurimac Region has created the Frente de Defensa Territorial y Ambiental (Territorial and Environmental Defense Front)—an organization that demands mining companies with large concessions in these zones to guarantee the protection of the environment, water sources, and rural areas under their jurisdiction.[30]

The Peruvian government should be wise to move forward to ensure the complete, full integration of social actors into the decision-making realm, considering the lack of rural actors reflected in the country’s political institutions. Demanding prior consultation ensures that those primarily affected by any sort of development plan taking place in their communities will be able to voice their concerns, as well as guarantee the protection of their livelihoods. President Humala has to make certain that all citizens are treated equally, since he has constantly made sure to illegally bypass the rights of his citizens in allowing mining firms to develop plans in their communities.

*Evelyn Estrada, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Notes:
[1] “Peru Anti-Mining Protest Sees Deadly Clashes.” BBC News. September 29, 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34389803.

[2] Dube, Ryan. “Peru Declares Martial Law in Two Regions After Protests.” The Wall Street Journal. September 29, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/peru-declares-martial-law-in-two-regions-after-protests-1443544784?mg=id-wsj&mg=id-wsj.

[3] “Peru Declares State of Emergency in Mining Region.” BBC News. September 30, 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34400831

[4] Dube, Ryan. “Peru Declares Martial Law in Two Regions After Protests.” The Wall Street Journal. September 29, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/peru-declares-martial-law-in-two-regions-after-protests-1443544784?mg=id-wsj&mg=id-wsj.

[5] Ibid.

[6] “Exigen que se instale mesa de dialogo por Las Bambas.” La Republica. September 28, 2015. http://larepublica.pe/impresa/sociedad/706515-exigen-que-se-instale-mesa-de-dialogo-por-las-bambas

[7] “Todo lo que debes saber sobre el conflicto en Las Bambas.” La Republica. Septemer 29. 2015. http://larepublica.pe/politica/706865-todo-lo-que-debes-saber-sobre-el-conflicto-en-las-bambas

[8] “¿Por qué hay tanto rechazo a los proyectos mineros en el Perú?” Publimetro. September 30, 2015. http://publimetro.pe/actualidad/noticia-que-hay-tanto-rechazo-proyectos-mineros-peru-38981?ref=ecr

[9] Burt, Jo-Marie. Political Violence and the Authoritarian State in Peru: Silencing Civil Society, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).

[10] Roberts, Kenneth M. “Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case.” World Politics 48, no. 1 (1995): 82-116.

[11] Burt, Jo-Marie. “Guilty as Charged: The Trial of Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori for Human Rights Violations.” The International Journal of Transnational Justice 3, no. 3 (2009): 384-405. http://ijtj.oxfordjournals.org/content/3/3/384.full

[12] Ibid.

[13] Manrique, Nelson. “The Two Faces of Fujimori’s Rural Policy.” NACLA. https://nacla.org/article/two-faces-fujimoris-rural-policy

[14] Ibid.

[15] Bury, Jeffrey. “Mining Mountains: Neoliberalism, Land Tenure, Livelihoods, and the New Peruvian Mining Industry in Cajamarca.” Environmental and Planning A 37, (2005): 221-239.

[16] Ibid.

[17] “Convention No. 169 (Indigenous and Tribal Peoples).” International Labour Organization. http://www.ilo.org/indigenous/Conventions/no169/lang–en/index.htm

[18] Ibid.

[19] Ibid.

[20] “Peru’s Mining and Metals Investment Guide 2014/2015.” Ernst and Young. http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Peru-mining-metals-investment-guide-14-15/$FILE/EY-Peru-mining-and-metals-investment-guide-2014-2015.pdf

[21] Bury, Jeffrey, and Kolff, Adam. “Livelihoods, Mining and Peasant Protests in the Peruvian Andes.” Journal of Latin American Geography 1, no. 1 (2002): 3-16.

[22] Ibid.

[23] Ibid.

[24] de Oliveira, Adolfo. Decolonising Indigenous Rights. New York: Routledge, 2009.

[25] Ibid.

[26] Post, Colin. “Peru’s Government Reaches Deal with Las Bambas Protesters.” Peru Reports. October 7, 2015. http://perureports.com/2015/10/07/perus-government-reaches-deal-with-las-bambas-protesters/

[27] Emery, Alex. “Peru Calls Off State Emergency at Las Bambas.” Business Insight in Latin America. October 7, 2015. http://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mining/peru-calls-off-state-of-emergency-at-las-bambas

[28] “Peru Declares State of Emergency After Mine Clashes.” TeleSUR. September 30, 2015. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Peru-Declares-State-of-Emergency-After-Mine-Clashes-20150930-0036.html

[29] Ibid.

[30] “Cusco y Apurimac Exigen Respeto a Empresas Mineras.” La Republica. September 19, 2015. http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/704503-cusco-y-apurimac-exigen-respeto-empresas-mineras

By Geethanjali Nataraj*

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that was agreed to on 5 October 2015 covers almost a third of world trade and 40 per cent of global GDP. By not being part of the TPP, India risks losing out. According to a Center on Global Trade and Investment study, India’s nominal GDP is likely to be trimmed by more than 1 per cent as a result of trade and investment diversion caused by the TPP. The ensuing negative effects on India’s economy by way of revenue and job losses will be large.

India is less integrated into the global economy than China, who is also excluded from the TPP. India has a share of only 2.1 per cent in global trade (five times less than China’s) and cannot do with further trade diversion. One reason for China’s current clout is its active integration into the global economy over recent decades. Today it leads exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. If India wants to grow to such economic and geopolitical heights, it must become more integrated.

Global supply chains make up 80 per cent of international trade today. The TPP will further intensify this trend, as it will link production facilities across borders. Joining the TPP could help India integrate its small and medium-sized enterprises into these production networks. Indian exports are most likely to be hit as the TPP provides special concessions to some of its key partners to purchase from other TPP member countries. Thirty per cent of Indian textiles exports, for example, are consumed by the United States and will come under pressure as competitors such as Vietnam will be in a position to usurp India’s market share on the back of benefits granted under the TPP.

FDI inflows into India started to pick up from the mid 2000s. Today India is one of the largest recipients of FDI in the developing world and the largest in South Asia. The TPP will incentivise foreign investment among member states, decreasing the relative attractiveness of India as a destination among TPP members. Given its potential to create jobs and help build infrastructure, India is not in a position to forego potential FDI inflows.

The TPP also involves regulatory harmonisation, meaning that multi-national corporations under the aegis of the TPP do not have to face regulatory hostilities in host countries or grapple with different laws. India’s legislations are not particularly aligned with global standards and companies have previously encountered retrospective tax legislations. In this context, a TPP that excludes India isn’t good news for the country.

But, despite its benefits, India cannot easily agree to several measures under the TPP. India, along with other developing countries, will find it difficult to give in on environmental standards due to its lower stage of economic development. Likewise, India will have a hard time conceding to the kind of intellectual property rights protection regime that the United States wants, as it relies on a huge generic drug manufacturing industry. And India cannot afford to participate in sweeping tariff cuts that are expected under the TPP. It will also be hard to meet the labour standards of the developed West.

But India should aim to negotiate on these issues. Staying out of the TPP does not help in either economic terms or foreign policy terms.

Even more significant are the geopolitical implications of the trade deal. The TPP is a well-crafted geo-economic exercise as much as it is a trade and investment pact. It has succeeded in excluding China and thereby potentially stunting its rapid rise. While studies show that the United States would gain marginally in economic terms with the implementation of the TPP, Washington has clearly gained a geopolitical victory. Its motivations are understandable as it may want to regain its leadership over global economic governance mechanisms after it lost some credibility following the 2008 financial crisis and the emergence of powerful new groupings like the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

India has to deftly navigate the TPP waters by making sure it does not isolate itself by staying out of the picture for too long. At the same time, actively committing to the TPP will be hard. India should pursue an incremental process, where it initially joins the discussions and then determines how well it is placed to enter as a member. India could bring much needed flexibility to the TPP and use it to boost its own ties with United States.

But there is no clear consensus in the Indian government on whether enhanced market access through the TPP will be worth the gains. The TPP would involve huge costs to a few protected Indian industries. Undoubtedly, India would need to prepare itself for higher standards than it has ever committed to in the past. But the gains for India if it joins the TPP cannot be overlooked.

Ultimately, major structural changes in the Indian economy — from infrastructural overhauls and legislative fixes to institutional reforms and human resource development — will determine whether India manages to succeed in a world of complex supply chain-led international trade and investment. Mega-FTAs are only enablers. India should partake in them according to its needs at the time.

*The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: www.eastasiaforum.org

Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena invited Sri Lankan intellectuals living in Thailand to return to Sri Lanka to provide their service to the Motherland as freedom and democracy established in the country.

Sirisena extended this invitation during a meeting with the Sri Lankan community in Thailand, President Sirisena commenced a four-day state visit to Thailand on the invitation of the Prime Minister of Thailand General Prayut Chan –o- cha to participate in a ceremony to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relationship between Sri Lanka and Thailand .

Entrepreneurs, members of the Trade Association and university students participated in this meeting organized by the Sri Lanka embassy in Thailand.

Addressing the gathering the President said that the opportunity to work freely and independently in all the fields have been widen in Sri Lanka in a background where rights of the people conferred by the constitution are secured and independent commissions were established.

“The time has come for everyone to act without fear and mistrust in the country,” Sirisena added.

The accelerate development achieved by the Thailand is exemplary to the other countries in the world, the President said.

The university students requested President Sirisena to create an encouraging environment for innovations, when the President asked from the university students what are the facilities the government should establish with in the country when they return to Sri Lanka.

The students requested the President to provide more technology facilities in rural areas to utilize their knowledge acquired in Thailand.

The Sri Lankan community in Thailand apprised Sirisena regarding the importance of further strengthening of air links between the two countries.

Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, Minister of Primary Industries- Daya Gamage, Chief Minister of Southern Province- Shan Wijayalal De Silva and Chief Minister of Central Province- Sarath Ekanayake participated in this meeting.

For centuries, cod were the backbone of New England’s fisheries and a key species in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem.

Today, cod stocks are on the verge of collapse, hovering at 3-4% of sustainable levels. Even painful cuts to the fishery have failed to slow this rapid decline, surprising both fishers and fisheries managers.

Now a report published this week in the journal Science links the cod collapse directly to rapid warming of ocean waters.

“Here is an explanation for why the Gulf of Maine’s cod fishery has not recovered despite significantly reduced fishing,” said Mike Sieracki, program director in the Division of Ocean Sciences at the National Science Foundation (NSF). “Management plans will need to incorporate climate change factors to be effective.”

NSF funded the research through its Coastal SEES (Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability) Program.

Between 2004 and 2013, the Gulf of Maine warmed faster than 99 percent of the global ocean. The rapid warming was linked to changes in the position of the Gulf Stream and to climate oscillations in the Atlantic and the Pacific. These factors added to the steady pace of warming caused by global climate change.

Over the past decade, in the face of quickly declining cod stocks, fisheries managers placed a series of restrictions on harvesting this key Gulf of Maine species. Even strict quota limits on fishers failed to help cod rebound.

“Fishers stayed well within their limits for cod, and yet stocks continued to decline” said Andrew Pershing, chief scientific officer of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) and lead author of the study. “That told us something else was going on–and it turns out that warming was driving the decline.”

Pershing and colleagues from GMRI, the University of Maine, Stony Brook University, the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory found that increasing water temperatures reduced the number of new cod produced by spawning females.

The results also suggest that warming waters led to higher mortality of young fish.

The models used by managers to set quotas for cod did not account for the effects of rising temperatures, leading to quotas that were too high.

Fishers stayed within their quotas but still took more fish than the population could sustain.

“This creates a frustrating situation that contributes to mistrust among fishers, scientists and managers,” Pershing said.

According to the report, recovery of Gulf of Maine cod depends on sound fishery management and on knowing water temperature.

Cod is a cold-water species, and the Gulf of Maine is at the edge of its geographic range. As the ocean warms, the capacity of the Gulf of Maine to support cod will decline, leading to a smaller population and a smaller fishery.

The study shows the risk of not including water temperature in fisheries models, especially for stocks like Gulf of Maine cod at the edge of their range.

The warmer climate gets, the less fisheries managers can rely on historical data, Pershing noted.

“The ability to predict the effect of warming on fish stocks will be an important part of adapting fisheries to a changing climate,” he said.

Qatar officially opened the country’s biggest workers’ accommodation camp on Sunday, with enough space to house almost 70,000 laborers.

“Labor City” which also contains two police stations, Qatar’s second largest mosque and cost some $825 million to build, will house 68,640 workers when it reaches full capacity.

It was unveiled by Prime Minister Abdullah bin Nasser Al-Thani and the Labor Minister Abdullah Al-Khulaifi in a ceremony in the capital Doha.

The site is currently around 60 percent full and houses workers from various countries including Nepal, India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

Mohammed Al-Maraghi, a manager with the Naaas Group, which is overseeing the site, said “Labor City” was the “model” for other camps and bigger sites may follow.

Each room at Labor City should accommodate no more than four workers and daily inspections will be carried out to ensure that number is not breached, officials said Sunday.

After the historic Royal speech of March 9, 2011, Morocco has now reached the ground floor in the second phase of the process of establishing an advanced regionalization system. The first phase started with the announcement of His Majesty the King, on July 30, 2010, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of his reign, the establishment of a Consultative Commission tasked with this issue.

To King Mohammed VI, this is not a “mere technical or administrative management,” but rather “a resolute option for the renovation and modernization of state structures, and the consolidation of the integrated development.” It does not reduce “to a simple redistribution of powers between the center and the regions.” Similarly, this regionalization “is a major turning point in the forms of territorial governance” and that, as a prelude to a “new dynamic radical institutional reform,” said the King.

The proposed regionalization in Morocco, is a revolution compared to all previous conceptions of decentralization. This is a new architecture that breaks with the past, both in its conception, its goals, expectations, as its objectives. This is one step in a continuing process of democratization of the political and social life.

The logic of this approach can be explained by the choice of the path of regionalization for many years, for territorial entrench democracy in Morocco and to avoid also the creation of a large disparity between the all regions of the Kingdom, including the Southern Provinces.

On the democratic essence, this regionalization goal will strengthen the role of the region in Morocco, which implies major changes in the distribution of powers between central and local actors. It is the transfer of powers from the center to the periphery and will multiply decision centers and bring them closer to people. In this sense, the principles of decision-making autonomy and financial autonomy will be an important step forward in the path of consecration effective powers in the region.

Moreover, regarding the Sahara issue, regionalization is also the Moroccan perception of a solution to the dispute. Indeed, the advanced regionalization in Morocco provided in the constitutional reform is a “transitional stage” to the Sahara autonomy. Implementation of advanced regionalization in Morocco is the complement of the Moroccan offer combined dynamic and sustainable Sahara conflict.

To achieve the goals of regionalization, the plan to extend the powers of the presidents of regional councils will have executive powers. They will no longer depend on governors and walis. They will be awarded the total management of budgets and municipal assemblies will be accountable to the people and the law. In this vein, the constitutional recognition of the autonomy of management and administrative autonomy, contribute to enshrine the principle of separation of powers and their distribution between the central and local governments.

This regionalization project relates in particular to the southern provinces of the Kingdom that will benefit from rights and privileges in the context of “good governance for equitable redistribution, not only functions, but also the means between the center and regions. “

The solution that Morocco now proposes—autonomy within Morocco—is not a device to circumvent the UN-sponsored resolution; it is, in my opinion, merely the modern version of the old bay’a principle that bonded the Sahrawis with the rest of the country. Because the sultan and his army couldn’t be everywhere at once, substantial autonomy was the de facto solution to government in pre-colonial times. As long as people paid taxes and recognized the sultan in their prayers, they were left to manage their affairs as they saw fit.

History has recorded many instances in which French and Spanish colonial administrators attest to Morocco’s right to lands that have since been expropriated. After independence, Morocco ceded most of them, including Tindouf (which has, ironically, become the headquarters of the Polisario movement), to Algeria. Yet that was not enough for Morocco’s detractors. They want more. Spain even invaded a rock in the Mediterranean in 2002 to prove the point.

Few countries can match Morocco’s record in seeking a peaceful solution to a problem that should not have existed in the first place. But the Sahara is simply hard to give up. The Sahrawis, like the Amazighs, or Arabs, are part of a mosaic of cultures and traditions that have always been united under the leadership and prestige of the sultan. Morocco has been a multicultural society from its very inception, but it has never surrendered to colonialism, whether it appeared in the form of a gun or wrapped itself in legal language designed to deceive and erase historical realities. For history is, above all, memory, and the memory of Moroccans is stronger than a few lines drawn in the sand by pumped up colonialists.

To insist that the Sahara is Moroccan is, contrary to many so-called liberal and leftist claims, to correct an historical injustice and roll back the legacy of colonialism. Self-determination is a beautiful US-inspired concept whose goal was to give a voice to non-Western people slaving under European colonialism; it wasn’t meant to liberate such countries into fragmented, mutilated entities. To do so would be to add more trouble to a region that needs peace and development.

The Southern provinces development model, prepared in October 2013, represents a framework that will enable the further promotion of development and investment efforts in the region, by adopting a vision of more participatory and inclusive initiatives based on responsible governance.

Morocco has expressed its willingness to reach a solution that preserves its sovereignty and the unity of its national territories, while respecting the cultural specificity and allow the residents of the Sahara the control over the management of their developmental, economic, political, social and cultural affairs, within the national fabric, which makes it interact positively with the first “James Baker” project.

Morocco then proposed the Expanded Autonomy Initiative in April 2007, to grant the southern provinces of the Kingdom their autonomy as a political solution to the conflict, leading to the granting of the Sahara inhabitants wider powers in the management of their affairs, within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty; a stand confirmed by the Security Council’s recent decision which considered Morocco’s proposal serious and credible.

Furthermore, on April 21, 2008, after a series of direct negotiations rounds, between 2007 and 2008, the former envoy of Secretary-General of the United Nations, Peter van Walsum, stated before the Security Council, that “the independence of Western Sahara is not a realistic option”, calling on the 15 member states in the Council to recommend the continuation of the negotiations, taking into account, both the political reality and international legality.

The high turnout recorded in the Sahara provinces in the recent September local and regional elections translates the attachment of these provinces inhabitants to their country and makes of the officials they elected their true representatives. The remarks were made by Morocco’s King Mohammed VI while he was chairing over the opening of the fall parliamentary session.

“I was indeed proud to note that, in the last elections, there was a high voter turnout in our Southern provinces,” said the King who deemed this high turnout as a “further democratic proof that the sons and daughters of the Sahara are deeply committed to their country’s territorial integrity and political system, and that they are keen to be effectively involved in the nation’s institutions.”

King Mohammed VI own words hint at the scope and the importance he gives to this great project. Moroccans now from Tangier to Lagwira, are looking forward to the upcoming royal speech that the King is expected to deliver in Laayoune on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the historic Green March that helped the country peacefully retrieve its southern provinces from Spain under the Madrid accords signed in 1975 by Morocco, Spain and Mauritania.

Dear Chairwoman Janet Yellen:

We are a group of humble savers in traditional bank savings and money market accounts who are frustrated because, like millions of other Americans over the past six years, we are getting near zero interest . We want to know why the Federal Reserve, funded and heavily run by the banks, is keeping interest rates so low that we receive virtually no income for our hard-earned savings while the Fed lets the big banks borrow money for virtually no interest. It doesn’t seem fair to put the burden of your Federal Reserve’s monetary policies on the backs of those Americans who are the least positioned to demand fair play.

We follow the reporting on your tediously over-dramatic indecision as to when interest rates will be raised – and no one thinks that when you do, it will be any more than one quarter of one percent. We hear the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and the various regional board presidents regularly present their views of the proper inflation and unemployment rate, and on stock market expectations that influence their calculations for keeping interest rates near-zero. But we never hear any mention of us – the savers of trillions of dollars who have been forced to make do with having the banks and mutual funds essentially provide a lock-box for our money while they use it to make a profit for their firms and, in the case of the giant banks and large mutual funds, pay their executives exorbitant salaries..

We are tired of this melodrama that exploits so many people who used to rely on interest income to pay some of their essential bills. Think about the elderly among us who need to supplement their social security checks every month.

On October 27, the Wall Street Journal headlined the latest rumors of twists and turns inside the secretive Federal Reserve: “Fed Strives For Clear Signal on Rate Move: As 2016 approaches, the central bank hopes to better manage market expectations.”

What about the expectations of millions of American savers? It is unfortunately true that we are not organized; if we were, we would give you and the Congress the proper signals!

Please, don’t lecture us about the Fed not being “political.” When you are the captives of the financial industry, led by the too-big-to-fail banks, you are generically “political.” So political in fact that you have brazenly interpreted your legal authority as to become the de facto regulator of our economy, the de facto printer of money on a huge scale (“quantitative easing” is the euphemism for artificially boosting the stock market) and the leader of the Washington bailout machine crony capitalism when big business, especially a shaky Wall Street firm, indulges in manipulative, avaricious, speculative binges with our money.

When it comes to the Fed, Congress is mired in hypocrisy. The anti-regulation, de-regulation crowd on Capitol Hill shuts its mouth when it comes to the most powerful regulators of all – you and the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Congress goes along with the out-of-control, private government of the Fed—unaccountable to the national legislature. Moreover, your massive monetary injections scarcely led to any jobs on the ground, other than stock and bond processors.

So what do you advise us to do? Shop around? Forget it. The difference between banks, credit unions and mutual funds may be one-twentieth or one-tenth of one percent! That is, unless you want to tie up money, that you need regularly, in a longer term CD or Treasury. Even then interest rates are far less than they were ten years ago.

Maybe you’re saying that we should try the stock market to get higher returns. Some of us have been impelled to do that, but too many have lost their peace of mind and much money in the market.

The Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy isn’t helping younger people with student loans (now over 1.3 trillion dollars), whose interest rate ranges from six to nine percent. It doesn’t help millions of pay-day loan borrowers or victims of installment loan rackets – mostly the poor – whose interest rates, rolled over, can reach over 400 percent!

Chairwoman Yellen, I think you should sit down with your Nobel Prize winning husband, economist George Akerlof, who is known to be consumer-sensitive. Together, figure out what to do for tens of millions of Americans who, with more interest income, could stimulate the economy by spending toward the necessities of life.

For heaven’s sake, you’re a “liberal” from Berkeley! That is supposed to mean something other than to be indentured by the culture and jargon of the Federal Reserve. If you need further nudging on monetary and regulatory policies of the Fed, other than interest rate decisions, why not invite Berkeley Professor Robert Reich, one of your long-time friends and admirers, to lunch on your next trip home?

Start imagining what we, the savers, have to endure because of plutocratic, crony capitalism for which the Federal Reserve has long been a leading Tribune.

Can we expect your response?

Sincerely yours,
Savers of America

The Egyptian government is ready to collaborate with Moscow to “uncover the truth” on the crash of the Airbus A321, operated by the Russian airline Kogalymavia (Metrojet), in a mountain area in central Sinai, killing all 224 on board.

“In such cases, leave it to specialists to determine the cause of the plane crash because it is a subject of an extensive and complicated technical study”, said President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi from Cairo.

Nabil Sadek, Egypt’s prosecutor general, ordered the formation of a team of prosecutors tasked with investigating the debris, and accepted the participation of Russian investigators. The crash site, in the Hassana area around 70km south of the city of El Arish, was declared “off-limits”. Experts have so far recovered 187 bodies.

Based on reports from Egyptian security sources, technical problems experienced by the Airbus were the cause of the disaster that occurred shortly after take off from Sharm El-Sheikh en route to St. Petersburg. “Any type of terrorist act” was excluded, though the Islamic State (IS) claimed on Jihadist internet sites to have “shot down” the plane.

All Airbus A321 Metrojet flights have been grounded. Air France, Lufthansa and Emirates have also announced that they will avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula until the causes of the disaster are clarified.

By Dr Subhash Kapila*

Chinese President Xi Jinping as Vietnam’s geographically oversized, militarily dominating and aggressive, politically over-bearing and coercive Northern neighbour will be on an invitational visit to Vietnam on November 5-6, 2015 against the contextual background of China’s marked conflict-escalation in the South China Sea ever since President Xi Jinping assumed the Chinese Presidency.

Under President Xi Jinping, China forcibly sent last year the Chinese oil drilling rig HSY 961 into Vietnamese waters generating conflictual maritime clashes and more notably in brazen defiance of international conventions commenced the large scale construction of ‘Artificial Islands” in the South China Sea waters disputed by Vietnam and the Philippines; and further it has converted these artificial creations into military garrisons with military airstrips, naval facilities and other military infrastructure. Surely, such militarily provocative actions are not the manifestation of a friendly neighbour intent on improving relations with Vietnam or at the least initiating a process to do so.

To this context must be added yet another dimension of eruption of violent anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam following Chinese aggressive provocations in the South China Sea. This only reinforced the historical animosities of the Vietnamese peoples against China.

“Severe Strategic Distrust” would be a mild word to describe the true state of Vietnam’s relations with China in the second decade of the 21st Century. Without naming Cinna, Vietnam had averred to this aspect at the Shangri La Dialogue two years back

Vietnam’s geographical tyranny has left it with limited options but to be civil to China, which also happens to be a Communist neighbour, that was markedly absent in the traditional ‘fraternal ties’ that should have prevailed between two Communist countries.

President Xi Jinping’s visit comes after 10 long years since the last Chinese President visited Vietnam, which itself is an indicator of the fragility of China-Vietnam ties. A number of analytical questions come to the fore, therefore, contextually.

The first major analytical question that arises is the purpose of the Chinese President’s visit to Vietnam at this juncture? Is the Chinese President’s visit aimed and designed to transform, or as the Americans term it, to “reset” China-Vietnam relations? Or, is the present Chinese President’s visit to Vietnam a diplomatic ‘proforma visit’ to impress the ASEAN countries of its reasonableness, when China combines the Vietnam visit with a follow-up visit to Singapore?

Taking the second question, first, it needs to be pointed out that if the Chinese President’s current visit to Vietnam was aimed at a “reset” of China-Vietnam relations, then, it should have been a Vietnam-specific visit to add diplomatic and political finesse’. Combining his visit with a visit to Singapore, the Chinese President is signalling to ASEAN countries that China has no problems with ASEAN, but only with Vietnam. Also, Singapore is scheduled to head some ASEAN initiatives on ASEAN –China relations and therefore an attempt to modulate ASEAN summations on China.

Addressing the first question now, it needs to be noted is that the present timing of the Chinese President’s visit to Vietnam is significant for a number of major reasons. The first major reason is that Vietnam’s 12th Party Congress is scheduled at the beginning of 2016 in which Vietnam will be electing an entirely new leadership. At this juncture, the Chinese President would get the opportunity to interact and impress on the incoming leadership China’ genuine (?) intentions to transform relations with Vietnam. It could end up as a vain attempt unless the Chinese President in his long term ‘strategic vision of future course of China-Vietnam relations’ offers some substantial concessions on the South China Sea disputes with Vietnam.

Further, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and the East Asia Summits are due to follow and the Chinese President’s visit may be aimed to soothe Vietnam’s frayed nerves after the heightened tensions of the last year or so. Vietnam’s joining the Trans Pacific Partnership led and sponsored by the United States is also a Chinese concern.

More significantly, it needs to be highlighted that China seems to have up-staged and pre-empted the US President’s visit to Vietnam in November 2015. Till last month, media reports were active as to a fine-balancing diplomatic act Vietnam would have to resort to host two visits in quick succession of the US President and the Chinese President within weeks of each other in November 2015. In fact there were no reports of finalised dates of Chinese President’s visit to Vietnam, till recently.

It is now learnt that the US President would visit Vietnam early next year, presumably after the new Vietnamese leadership is installed. In a way that may work out better for Vietnam-US relations after President Obama would have attended the two Summits mentioned the Philippines and Malaysia.

Some media reports highlight that there is a growing public opinion in Vietnam that in view of China’s increasing conflict escalation on South China Sea disputes and issues, it may be more prudent for Vietnam to discontinue its fine-balancing of its foreign relations between China and the United States. Vietnam should therefore opt for an open strategic partnership with the United States provided that the United States is ready to make unequivocal commitments on the same.

The ball is in the United States court to take a call on. If in 1972, the United States could “reset” relations with China, there are more cogent strategic imperatives for the United States to “reset” relations with Vietnam and transform it into a full-fledged strategic partnership.

Concluding, one is constrained to observe that China-Vietnam relations can only be truly “reset” by China when China restores the status-quo ante on the Vietnamese sovereignty of Paracel Islands and Spratlys Islands under illegal Chinese occupation and resile from its declarations of the Nine Dash Line and the South China Sea as China’s Core Interest, implying that it is China’s Inland Sea. This is unlikely to happen and Vietnam has to audaciously explore bilateral and multilateral countervailing options so that China’s aggressive activities against Vietnam are restrained.

*Dr Subhash Kapila is a graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley and combines a rich experience of Indian Army, Cabinet Secretariat, and diplomatic assignments in Bhutan, Japan, South Korea and USA. Currently, Consultant International Relations & Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. He can be reached at drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com

By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty*

At least 27 persons including 13 children were killed and 36 were injured in a suicide blast targetting a 9th Muharram (Shia mourning period) procession near a park in the Lashari area of Jacobabad District in Sindh in the evening of October 23, 2015. The blast took place at about 7:30 pm when a Muharram procession, which started from the Dargah Hajan Shah, was passing through the Lashari Muhalla (neighbourhood).

A day earlier, on October 22, 10 Shias were killed while several others received injuries when a blast ripped through an Imambargah (Shia place of worship) in the Bhaag area of Bolan District in Balochistan. The attack took place as Shias gathered at the mosque to observe Muharram. Responsibility was claimed by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). Sindh Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) official Raja Umer Khattab disclosed the LeJ had a strong network in bordering areas with Balochistan and might have been operating from there: “The LeJ network remains intact in bordering areas of Sindh-Balochistan despite arrests and killings of several militants of the group.”

LeJ had suffered major setbacks recently with the killing of top leaders such as Usman Kurd, the Balochistan chapter ‘chief’ on February 15, 2015, and LeJ ‘chief’ Malik Ishaq in the Muzaffargarh District of Punjab on July 29, 2015. The suicide bombings on ‘soft targets’ in Jacobabad and Bolan indicate LeJ efforts to reassert itself after the recent setbacks.

The Jacobabad and Bolan attacks are just a reminder of rampant sectarianism in Pakistan. The primary player, here, has been LeJ, which was formed in 1996, when it formally separated from Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), which is now known as Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ). The LeJ aims to transform Pakistan into a Sunni state, primarily through violence. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 4,174 persons have been killed and another 7,240 injured in 1,431 incidents of sectarian violence since 2001. Though there has been a decreasing trend in the number of incidents in recent years, LeJ’s capacity to execute such violence remains intact. 2015 recorded 49 incidents, a drop of 46.73 per cent against the 92 incidents in 2014; fatalities, however, increased 20.52 per cent, from 210 in 2014 to 251 in 2015.

The elimination of top ranking LeJ leaders has clearly not deterred the group, as 2015 has witnessed some of the gravest sectarian attacks, most prominently including, in addition to the Jacobabad and Bolan attacks:

May 13, 2015: At least 45 Ismaili Shias were killed and 24 were injured when unidentified militants opened fire on their Bus in Safora Chowrangi area near Dow Medical College in Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town of Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh.

February 13, 2015: At least 22 Shias were killed and another 50 were injured during a gun and bomb attack at an Imambargah in the Phase-5 locality of the Hayatabad area in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) when suicide attackers and gunmen – dressed in Police uniforms – attacked worshippers offering Friday prayers.

January 30, 2015: At least 61 Shias were killed and 50 were injured in a bomb explosion at Karbala Maula Imambargah in the Lakhi Dar area of Shikarpur District, Sindh.

Sectarian strife has afflicted Pakistan virtually from the moment of its birth, but has escalated continuously since 1979, with the then President General Zia-ul-Haq’s ‘Islamicisation’ of Pakistani politics. Shias resisted this process as the ‘Sunnification’ of Pakistan, since most of the laws and regulations introduced were based on Sunni Fiqh (Jurisprudence). Notably, in July 1980, 25,000 Shias gathered in Islamabad to protest the Islamicisation laws. But the more the Shias protested, the more were they targeted, and the strife widened. The violence worsened after September 11, 2001, and the expulsion of the Taliban from Afghanistan, leading then President Pervez Musharraf to ban some 104 terrorist and religio-extremist groups, including the LeJ and SSP.

The horror of sectarian violence increases especially when the month of Muharram approaches each year. Muharram includes a ten day period of mourning observed by the Shias at the death of the family of Imam Hussain, the grandson of the Prophet, at the battle of Karbala in 680 AD, at the hands of the Umayyad Caliphate.

Purportedly, the Federal and provincial Governments in Pakistan had made ‘fool proof security arrangements’ for Muharram this year. The Sindh Government had imposed a ban on pillion riding in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur and Larkana. Cell phone services had been suspended in major cities, including Karachi, as a security measure during the observance of Muharram. The Sindh Government had allocated more than PKR 100 million for overall security during the month. A total of 27,942 personnel had been deployed in Karachi alone. Of these, 18,557 were in static deployments, 1,661 were located at pickets, 5,724 on Police vans, and 2,000 as a Reserve Force in the metropolis. Similarly, 6,294 Policemen had been deployed in the Hyderabad range; 2,276 in Mirpurkhas; 7,623 in Benazirabad; 9,488 in Sukkur; and 10,791 in the Larkana Range. The Sindh Government had declared 1,229 majalis (religious gatherings), 384 matmi (mourning) processions and 188 tazia (replica’s of Imam Hussain’s tomb) processions, as ‘most sensitive’ all over the Province, and announced a three layer security cordon for processions and majalis.

Among the 36 Districts of Punjab, 12 Districts – Lahore, Rawalpindi, Jhang, Rahimyar Khan, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Bhakkar, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Bahawalnagar, Chakwal and Pakpattan – were also declared “most sensitive”.

A ‘comprehensive security plan’ had also been prepared for Imambargahs and Ashura (the 10th Day of Muharram, on which Imam Hussain was killed) processions in Balochistan and its capital Quetta. Balochistan has experienced continuous violence and targeted killings of Shia Hazaras. Speaking at a Press Conference last week, Imtiaz Shah, Deputy Inspector General, Quetta, told the media that over 5,000 security personnel, including those from the Frontier Corps and three battalions of the Army, were deployed around Imambargahs and along the routes of mourning processions. Another three Army battalions would remain on stand-by. Senior Police officers aboard two helicopters would monitor the main Muharram processions on the 9th and 10th day of mourning, while around 2,500 Policemen and personnel of law-enforcement agencies had already been deployed at 56 Imambargahs and another 14 places where women’s Majalis are held. 23 Imambargahs in the city had been declared ‘very sensitive’.

Similarly, the KP Police had declared Peshawar, Hangu, Kohat and Dera Ismail Khan as the most sensitive Districts for Muharram. According to a statement issued by the Police, 429 Muharram processions were to be taken out in the Province, and 940 majalis were authorized during the month. The Police had identified 129 ‘trouble spots’ on procession routes across the Province. The provincial capital has 67 Imambargahs, from where 121 processions were to be taken out on the 9th and 10th of Muharram.

Despite claims of all these ‘fool proof’ arrangements, sectarian terrorists have succeeded in engineering two major strikes.

At least part of the problem has been the long standing support sectarian formations have received from the larger Sunni community and from state agencies. Malik Ishaq, the LeJ chief, before his killing on July 29, 2015, had benefited from the Punjab Government’s financial assistance ever since Shahbaz Sharif took charge as Chief Minister of the Province in 2008. Malik Ishaq also allegedly received a monthly stipend from the Punjab Government during his imprisonment. Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah confirmed the disbursement but clarified that it was given to Ishaq’s family, and not to him, as per Court orders. Upon further investigation, however, it was discovered that there was no such Court order pertaining to the matter. No such disbursement was on record during President Musharraf’s tenure.

Meanwhile, on September 20, 2015, the Sindh Government received details about 62 banned sectarian organisations from Federal authorities. Bank accounts of 13 of these had been frozen and offices of just nine had been sealed. In a report sent to the Chief Minister Office, Officials in Interior Ministry (MoI) mentioned that the Ministry had sent some specific details of the organisations to the Province for further action. They stated that the MoI had also sent category-wise sketch details of the banned groups. Forty-three such organisations were listed in the ‘A’ category, 12 in the ‘B’ category and seven others in the ‘C’ category. Referring to the report, the officials added that 17 organisations among the 43 had been categorised under ‘anti-state terrorism (armed and anti-state)’. However, the bank accounts of just one of these had been frozen.

Meanwhile, officials disclosed, intelligence agencies informed MoI about the re-emergence of 13 banned groups in Sindh. Five such groups — the most in a District in Sindh — had re-emerged in Mirpurkhas alone. Three each were documented to have resurfaced in Hyderabad and Korangi, and two in Karachi West.

The failure of the state to rein in sectarian terrorist formations is not surprising. Pakistan has long supported Sunni sectarian and terrorist groups as instruments, both, of foreign policy and of domestic political management. Efforts by state agencies to rein in some of these groups remain selective and, at best, only partly effective. Sunni groups with ties to state agencies continue to enjoy substantial freedom of operation to act across national borders, as well as at least a wink and a nod for some of their domestic (sectarian) activities.

*Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Because of Russian actions, more than three million Ukrainians have fled the Donbas and Crimea either to other parts of Ukraine thus becoming internally displaced persons or to Russia and other countries, a number that is “much larger than” the refugee flow into Europe from the Middle East, Yevgeny Kiselyov says.

In a post on Ekho Moskvy today, the Kyiv-based Russian journalist says that he was recently asked by a Russian journalist whether the October 25 Ukrainian elections would lead to an improvement in Ukrainian-Russian relations. He answered but doubtful that the journalist would use them is repeating his words on his blog (echo.msk.ru/blog/kiselev/1650980-echo/).

Specifically, Kiselyov said, “the improvement of relations between Ukraine and Russia does not depend on Ukraine.” Ukraine didn’t spoil them; Russia did by seeking to block Ukraine’s choice to turn to Europe. Russia in fact is responsible for the fact that a revolution took place in Ukraine and pro-Western forces came to power.

Then, Moscow compounded that mistake by seizing and annexing Ukraine’s Crimea and starting a war in the Donbas, backing the separatists and intervening with its own military when the separatists were losing, killing and wounding “tens of thousands of Ukrainians” and driving millions from their homes.

Moreover, he writes, “Russia with the help of the Kremlin-controlled mass media for a year and a half promoted and exacerbated anti-Ukrainian attitudes.” But what is striking is the Ukrainians have not ceased to have more or less positive feelings about Russians even though they have the most negative ones about the Putin regime.

Their positive feelings were on display this past weekend when Ukrainians brought flowers to the Russian embassy in Kyiv to express their sympathy after the Russian air crash in the Sinai. But their hostility to the Russian regime and to Vladimir Putin personally is so great that even formerly pro-Moscow Ukrainian politicians hide that as if it were an unmentionable disease.

The only way things can change, Kiselyov says, is if there is a radical shift in Russia’s foreign policy, “a return to the status quote which existed before February 20, 2014.” But even then it will take “years if not decades” for attitudes to change. Unfortunately, in recent days, Moscow has shown it has no interest in improving relations.

Moscow is threatening to impose sanctions on Ukraine in January. It has ended the special regime for Ukrainians in Russia who fled the fighting. It has raided the Ukrainian library in Moscow. And it has continued its anti-Ukrainian propaganda and its attacks on anyone who criticizes Putin for what he has done.

But “the most important thing is that there is no basis for thinking that Putin intends to refrain from supporting the separatists who have seized power in parts of the Donbas despite the current quieting down in the east of Ukraine.” It seems clear, Kiselyov says, that “improvement of relations with Kyiv is not in either Moscow’s short-term or long-term plans.”

By Martin Plaut and Mirjam van Reisen*

The UN Security Council has concluded that the Eritrean regime remains a serious threat to peace in the Horn of Africa and the region as a whole. In a resolution adopted on October 23, the Council expressed concern at the evidence provided by UN experts who accused President Isaias Afewerki of organising “ongoing Eritrean support for certain regional armed groups.” The Security Council went on to re-affirm its arms embargo against the Eritrean government.

Behind these bland phrases lies a catalogue of evidence carefully assembled by experts of the UN Monitoring Group. They explain in graphic detail how the regime operates: It supports rebel movements in neighbouring Ethiopia and Djibouti, something that has been known for quite some time. What is new is that – cynically enough – Eritrea is now embroiled in the Yemeni civil war in return for the Saudi and UAE financial support.

The backing of the Houthi rebellion in Yemen is indeed the most striking new finding. The monitors state that they have “received credible and persuasive testimony from multiple sources and independent reports indicating that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have established a military presence in Eritrea as part of the military campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and may be offering Eritrea compensation for allowing its territory and possibly its troops to be used as part of the Arab coalition-led war effort”.

Experts say that this deal was done after Djibouti rejected a similar arrangement with the Saudis and their allies. The UAE are said to have struck a separate deal to use the Eritrean port of Assab for the next 30 years. Situated just 60 km from the Yemeni coast, it has lain idle since Eritrea’s war with Ethiopia (May 1998 to June 2000) – a conflict that sealed the borders between the two countries.

It is not hard to imagine what Eritrea might do with the funds from its new Arab allies, since the regime has been keen to purchase weapons. The UN monitors report that a ship – the Shaker 1 – secretly docked at the Eritrean port of Massawa in January 2015. On board were Sudanese heavy weapons, apparently en route to arms fair in Abu Dhabi.

Whether they ever reached their destination is a moot point. What were described as eight ‘empty containers’ were offloaded at Massawa. The monitors say they have evidence that the containers were full, not empty, as claimed. It is likely that the howitzers and rocket launchers provided by the Military Industry Corporation of the Sudan were offloaded at the time. If so, this was in clear violation of the UN arms embargo against Eritrea.

Serious as these violations are, they pale into insignificance beside the evidence of the ongoing Eritrean backing of armed groups attempting to overthrow neighboring governments. These operations are co-ordinated by the head of Eritrean intelligence, Brigadier General Abraha Kassa, “a long-time associate of the President” – as the UN report puts it.

These movements include a newly formed front of Ethiopian rebel organisations, whose unity was “facilitated” by the Eritrean government. The Eritreans are also said to provide support to Afar rebels operating in Djibouti. Eritrean officials were confronted with this allegation, but they failed to respond.

Lack of financial transparency

These are exactly the kind of operations the Security Council has repeatedly demanded that Eritrea brings to an end. One of the roles of the monitors is to try to ensure that finances are not diverted by the regime to destabilise the region. This has been difficult to achieve, since the Eritrean government refuses experts all access to the country.

Even when senior Eritrean officials, including a senior political adviser to the President of Eritrea, Yemane Gebreab, meet with the UN’s appointed monitors, their promises of assistance prove worthless. The report notes that the Government continues not to disclose its budget appropriations and the country’s budget is not publicly available. UN monitors have yet to receive the official data for the past three years, promised at a meeting in Cairo in February 2014.

Given what is termed as “lack of financial transparency” the UN experts explain their concerns about reports that the European Union is considering a substantial increase in aid to Eritrea. The monitors call for “due diligence, monitoring and full oversight of the dispersal of large amounts of aid to Eritrea” since there is otherwise every risk that these would be used to fund rebellions across the region.

According to the UN, 5000 refugees leave Eritrea each month. Eritrean refugees are the second largest group of refugees entering Europe over the Mediterranean route.

In recent months the EU has been preparing a 200 million Euro bilateral aid package and a 40 million Euro package to be signed in a framework of collaboration to curb migration and human trafficking. Given the lack of financial transparency, it is difficult to understand how EU officials can possibly monitor the disbursal of funds.

Eritrea unilaterally ended aid relations in 2011 after the EU expressed grave concern over human rights violations in the country. At present, the EU is keen to encourage reforms in Eritrea by providing aid. It aims at tackling the root cause of the exodus of refugees by encouraging development.

Observers are however sceptical and point to the absence of any official government budget or budgetary procedures in Eritrea, the absence of democratic institutions, severe human rights violations as well as the regime’s role in destabilising the region.

There has been speculation that Eritrea wants to attract aid, since it requires foreign exchange to modernise its military. It has been pointed out that manipulating the exchange rate of the national currency, the Nakfa, would allow Eritrea to diveert aid funds to other priorities.

Increased aid to Eritrea may well contribute to undermining peace in the region and therefore increase the number of refugees. In the light of this it is significant that the newly imposed UN sanctions specifically refer to ‘public finance’ as an area requiring careful scrutiny.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s senior diplomat, warned Eritrea last month (October) to respect human rights and urged the country to engage in deep reforms. The question is whether such diplomatic warnings will suffice.

The UN Monitoring Report provides significant insights into Eritrea’s financial organisation as well as its determination to perpetuate instability across the region, contributing to an increasing refugee exodus.

The Eritrean regime officials are due to attend the Africa-EU Summit to be held in the Maltese capital Valletta on November 11-12. Their presence will pose difficult questions for their European partners, since this will be a critical opportunity for EU diplomats to deal with the refugee crisis, while at the same time building peace and regional security.

*About the authors:
Martin Plaut is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London. He was the Africa editor, BBC World Service News until he retired three years ago.

Prof. Dr Mirjam van Reisen is Professor International Social Responsibility, Tilburg University, Director Europe External Policy Advisors (EEPA), and Member of the Dutch Government Council on International Affairs and Chair of the Development Cooperation Commission.

By Deepak Kumar Nayak*

On October 26, 2015, the body of Rezaul Parvez, a student of the CV Raman Junior College in Nagaon town, was recovered by Police at Nongpoh in the Ri Bhoi District of Meghalaya. He had been abducted on October 21, from a private hostel at Nagaon Aminpatti (Assam) and is believed to have been killed by his abductors.

On October 24, 2015, the dead bodies of Assistant Central Intelligence Officer (ACIO) of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Bikash Kumar Singh (32) and cloth merchant Kamal Saha, were recovered in a decomposed state, from a village in Meghalaya’s South Garo Hills District. They had been abducted by A’chik Songna An’pachakgipa Kotok (ASAK) militants at gunpoint between Ampangre and Panda Reserve Forest on September 23, while they were travelling in a public vehicle towards Baghmara, the District headquarters of South Garo Hills, from Rongara.

On October 19, Fakrul Islam (32), a resident of Krishnai Badwan in the neighbouring Assam State, was killed by suspected militants in Bajengdoba village in the North Garo Hills District of Meghalaya. Islam’s body was recovered in the Bajengdoba Police Station jurisdiction in East Garo Hills District.

On October 7, two suspected members of a ‘kidnappers’ gang’ were killed by Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants in the Chi A’ding area and their bodies were dumped on the new highway road connecting Jengjal with Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District.

On October 1, suspected GNLA militants killed two Policemen near a hanging bridge at Kusumkolgre in Williamnagar of East Garo Hills District. The two Constables, Helpingstone Nongkseh, and Kundan Dalu, both 24, in civilian clothes, were travelling from the Bolkingre camp to Williamnagar on a motorcycle around 3 pm when the militants opened fire, killing them on the spot.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Meghalaya has recorded at least 53 militancy-linked fatalities, including 16 civilians, seven Security Forces (SFs) personnel and 30 militants, as of November 1, 2015, against 69 such fatalities, including 20 civilians, four SF personnel and 45 militants, during the corresponding period of 2014. The fatalities for the whole of 2014 stood at 76, including 23 civilians, six SF personnel and 47 militants. Though two months remain in 2015, SF fatalities this year have already crossed last year’s total. Insurgency related data for 1992-2015 indicates an interesting trend: between 2003 and 2012, SF fatalities exceeded five only once, in 2011 [at 10], while fatalities over the past three years [2013-15] have consistently remained above five.

According to the State Police, during Operation Hill Storm 2, the anti-insurgency operation conducted between April 2 and June 6, 2015, at least 17 militants were killed, including seven cadres of GNLA, four cadres of A’chik Matgrik Elite Force (AMEF), two cadres of ASAK, and one cadre each of the Independent faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I) and Liberation of Achik Elite Force (LAEF). The group affiliation of the remaining two was not known.

In Operation Hill Storm 1, [conducted between July 7, 2014, and December 31, 2014, SFs had killed 16 militants [seven GNLA, five ASAK, two United A’chik Liberation Army (UALA), and one each of ULFA-I and LAEF]. Another 24 militants were injured during the operation. The official statement had also disclosed that six Policemen were killed and another 10 SF personnel were injured during this period.

The successful beating back of the insurgents by the SFs in Operations Hill Storm 1 and 2 did raise hopes of larger peace in the State. However, militants appear to have retained a measure of disruptive dominance in parts of the State. In a statement issued to the media on August 9, 2015, GNLA declared that its team of ‘Eagle Hunters’ [a seven-member ‘special operation team’] was specifically formed to carry out attacks on Police personnel anytime anywhere: “Our Eagle Hunters team will shoot Police personnel dead on the spot no matter how many Police personnel are there at the time of the incident.” Evidently, the militants are attempting to salvage what they can of their abduction and extortion business in the face of the SFs operations in their erstwhile areas of dominance.

Abduction-for ransom has long been rampant, especially in the Garo Hills Region. These incidents are the handiwork of not only the GNLA, but all other militant outfits operating in Meghalaya, including ASAK and AMEF. According to SATP data, in the current year, until November 1, 2015, at least 40 incidents of abduction, in which 64 persons were abducted, have been reported, as compared to 39 such incidents resulting in 51 abductions during the corresponding period of 2014. Reported incidents are likely to be a fraction of the actual incidence of such crimes, as families of victims often settle with the abductors without reporting to the Police.

In the latest of a series of such incidents, on October 27, 2015, GNLA militants abducted the Block Development Officer (BDO) of Chokpot region in South Garo Hills District, near Deku Deganggre. Jude Rangku T. Sangma, a 2010 Meghalaya Civil Service batch officer, had left the Chokpot Block Office around 4:30 pm, enroute to Tura Town, and had stopped over at a funeral of a relative in Deku Deganggre village, 25 kilometres from Chokpot town. Police sources revealed that GNLA ‘commander’ Hedeo Ch Momin alias Karak was the ‘mastermind’ behind this abduction. Sangma is still to be traced and his abductors have threatened to execute him if counter-insurgency operations in the Garo Hills are not stopped.

According to the Police, on October 7, 2015, during an operation to rescue Waseem Ahmed (25), an engineer with the BSC C&C Construction Company who was abducted on September 29, 2015, SF personnel came across a new militant outfit, the United Garo Security Force (UGSF). Meghalaya Police launched a coordinated rescue operation to mount pressure on the UGSF militants to release Ahmed, which also led to the arrest of six UGSF militants. Police however suspect that Ahmed’s kidnappers belonged to the A’chik National Liberation Army (ANLA) , operating under the cover of UGSF.

The ‘business’ has also provoked jealous turf wars. GNLA, the most lethal group in the State, thus executed two suspected members of a ‘kidnappers’ gang’ on October 7, 2015, for their suspected involvement in a string of cases in the Chi A’ding area, dumping their bodies on the road connecting Jengjal with Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District. Earlier, on February 3, 2015, suspected GNLA militants attacked Bolmoram Agalgre village after learning about the presence of cadres of its rival breakaway faction ASAK. A teenage girl, Manchi Ch Marak, and an unidentified ASAK militant were killed in the gun battle that followed, and one ASAK cadre was injured.

According to the latest Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) figures, however, the entire Northeast region has seen a significant decline in incidents of abduction in 2015. The worst-affected State, Assam, registered a drop of nearly 70 per cent, even as the recently banned Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) resorted to the maximum number of abductions for any outfit in 2015. 182 kidnappings have been reported till September 15 in the current year from the seven Northeastern States, compared to 250 in the same period last year, and 369 in all in 2014. Assam saw a drop from 125 abductions in 2013 and 94 in 2014, to just 24 this year, thus far. Kidnappings in Meghalaya, according to UMHA data, were down from 110 last year to 45, so far, this year. Arunachal registered 24 such cases this year, down from 49 in 2014.

In a significant development, the ‘political and organising secretary’ of Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), identified as Fredrick Kharmawphlang, surrendered before Sunil Kumar Jain, the Chief intelligence officer of Meghalaya Police on July 31, 2015. Kharmawphlang was reportedly disillusioned with the HNLC leadership in Bangladesh because they engaged in ‘immoral activities’ at the cost of the Khasi people on whose behalf they claimed to be fighting. According to Jain, “Kharmawphlang realized a bleak future for HNLC because of its leadership and he fled from his hideout in Putisara village in Bangladesh and surrendered himself to the law in the presence of his parents and some members of the Khasi Student’s Union.” However, HNLC subsequently stated that it was his (Kharmawphlang’s) personal decision to return to the mainstream and “we do not have any qualms or complaints.” HNLC also claimed that it had joined hands with other “stronger organisations” of the Northeast, and would soon “co-ordinate” to prove that they “still exist.”

Indeed, if Paresh Baruah, ‘commander-in-chief’ of ULFA-I is to be believed, two Meghalaya-based outfits – GNLA and HNLC – had expressed their desire to join the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA), a common platform of militants in India’s Northeast.

Meanwhile, concerned over the delay in the implementation of the ‘Agreed Text for Settlement’, which was signed between the A’chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), breakaway faction of A’chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC-B), the Centre and the Meghalaya Government in September 24, 2014. Bernard Rimpu N. Marak, former leader of the ANVC-B, observed, on October 25, 2015, “The delay of which is obstructing the good days from dawning in Garo Hills. Good governance is the core vision of the agreed text which has to be materialized against all odds and obstructions. The state should implement the agreement instead of dilly-dallying the entire rehabilitation process (sic)” Bernard argued that the “agreed text” was a solution to many issues related to the people of Garo Hills. Earlier, in an initiative to overcome the Government’s failure to implement the Agreed Text for Settlement, Bernard declared, on September 6, 2015, that his group would contest the Garo Hills Autonomous District Council (GHADC) polls on October 12, 2015, to fulfill their demands. Bernard had contested as an independent candidate for Tura constituency while former ANVC-B’s ‘commander-in-chief’ Bidith Sangma contested for Siju constituency. However, both Bernard and Sangma lost their respective seats.

Meanwhile, in an effort to push active militants to return to the mainstream, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju, on August 21, 2015, announced that Government of India (GoI) had decided to hold talks with militant groups only after they surrender and deposit their arms and ammunition to concerned authorities: “We have made an appeal to those (militant groups) who wanted to come to the mainstream, that the first and foremost is to lay down arms and abjure violence because violence and talk cannot go parallel… We will not talk to anybody who indulges in any kind of violence.”

While there has been a sustained decline in insurgent violence in India’s Northeast over the years, the persistence of violence and the proliferation of militant factions in Meghalaya threaten the possibilities of an enduring peace in the State.

*Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

A study led by East-West Center researchers and funded by the National Science Foundation has confirmed suspicions that “peri-urban” areas at the outer fringes of cities are particular hot spots for the emergence of animal-to-human infectious diseases.

The study led by EWC researchers Sumeet Saksena and Jefferson Fox and published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE, focused on outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, strain H5N1 in Vietnam between 2003 and 2005, which resulted in 45 million bird deaths and 106 confirmed human cases with 52 deaths. Their research concluded that the outbreaks in large part sprang from converging environmental and social risk factors brought on by development in these rural-urban transition zones (peri-urban areas), confirming what is known as the “convergence model” of animal-human disease emergence.

“Our research model for the first time presents data-based evidence for the common-sense notion that the process of urbanization combines risk factors to produce peri-urban landscapes with significantly higher potential for infectious disease emergence,” said lead researcher Saksena.

The study notes that these areas have higher densities of domestic chickens, ducks and geese living alongside dense human populations, creating ideal conditions for HPAI transmission. Previous research suggested that disease outbreaks can be associated with environmental changes as societies evolve, but this is the first study of its kind to examine land-use diversity as a risk factor for H5N1. “Land-use diversity serves as a proxy measure for mixing of virus host species,” said project Principal Investigator Fox.

Since 2003, the virus has killed millions of poultry birds in countries throughout Asia, Europe and Africa, and 402 humans have died from it in 16 countries, according to World Health Organization data as of January 2015. Just this year in the Midwestern United States, 48.8 million poultry were affected across 21 states with a strain of HPAI – although it is important to note that this strain is not a threat for spread to humans. The biggest known outbreak of bird flu in U.S. history, the epidemic has hit flocks in Iowa and Minnesota the hardest, where producers are scrambling to implement bio-security measures.

Researchers said the East-West Center study implies the need to go beyond facility-level bio-security measures. Planners need to develop and implement landscape-level bio-security measures to improve emerging infectious disease prevention and control, they said, by combining geographic monitoring of risk factors along with pathogen surveillance programs.