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The Paris Attacks: Ramping Up Of Islamic State ‘Indirect Strategy’? – Analysis

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The recent Paris attacks claimed by ISIS may well represent an intensification of its indirect strategy of bypassing Western coalition military might and striking directly at the soft underbelly of coalition capitals: its civilian populations.

By Kumar Ramakrishna*

On November 13, 2015, the French capital city of Paris was rocked by bloody mayhem on a scale not seen since the Second World War. Three teams of attackers, employing urban swarming tactics of the kind last evidenced during the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, struck at separate locations, including a rock concert, restaurants and the vicinity of a soccer stadium where a match between the national teams of France and Germany was underway.

Almost 130 people were killed and scores more were maimed. The Paris attacks represent an intensification of the indirect strategy of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). To appreciate this strategic thrust however one must first understand the goals of the ISIS leadership.

Raising the costs of involvement in Syria, Iraq

At one level, its key senior leaders are apparently driven by a puritanical religious zeal to ensure that their almost 18-month old Islamic Caliphate expands worldwide. They are grounded enough nevertheless, to equally acknowledge that such grand designs will mean nothing unless they are able to first consolidate their territorial writ in Iraq and Syria in the face of the US-led coalition – and most recently, Russian – air campaigns that have helped prevent the collapse of the incumbent indigenous governments in both Damascus and Baghdad.

ISIS – which includes seasoned military professionals who once formed the backbone of the Iraqi Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein – recognise that it lacks the aggregate combat power to directly take on and defeat the combined military might of the US, UK, French and other coalition allies. Rather than a direct strategy therefore, ISIS has opted for an indirect one – where the military might of its enemies is bypassed and the politically vulnerable soft underbellies of the Western coalition – its civilian populations, are deliberately targeted instead.

The strategic calculation is simple: raise the domestic costs of Western coalition diplomatic and military involvement in Syria and Iraq – via unrestricted urban terrorism of the kind the world has just witnessed – to politically unsustainable levels and the anti-ISIS coalition might just fracture. This, it should be pointed out, is not an entirely a new idea. In 2004, following the Madrid train bombings by an Al Qaeda-linked terrorist cell, the Spanish authorities withdrew from involvement in US-led coalition operations in Iraq.

Origins of indirect strategy

The indirect strategy of ISIS was first inaugurated in September 2014, when its spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani – in response to the Obama administration’s launching of airstrikes against it in August – called upon ISIS supporters worldwide to engage in so-called “lone wolf” attacks within the homelands of the Western coalition. This has been heeded.

A couple of months after al-Adnani’s call, a 25-year old ISIS-inspired lone wolf, Martin Roulea, ran over two Canadian soldiers in a Montreal parking lot before being killed by police. In January 2015, 20-year old Christopher Cornell was arrested by the FBI for a plot to open fire on US government officials and the Israeli embassy. He claimed to have been acting on behalf of ISIS.

Six months later, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, al-Adnani urged ISIS supporters to turn it into “a month of disasters, defeats and disgrace for the kuffar [infidels] everywhere”. Subsequently, in the Tunisian tourist resort of Port el Kantaoui near the coastal city of Sousse, 20-year old Rafik el Chelly shot dead 37 mainly Western civilians near the beachside Rui Imperial Hotel. Within three hours of this attack, in the French city of Lyon the manager of an American-owned firm was beheaded by a lone attacker; while in Kuwait City, a lone suicide bomber attacked a Shia mosque.

Major shift in ISIS strategy

By contrast, the latest Paris attacks seem a qualitative change in comparison with other lone wolf incidents since al-Adnani’s September 2014 clarion call. There are four features. First, surviving eyewitnesses have described how calm, clinical and professional the assailants appeared to be, which suggests training rather than amateurish improvisation as would have been the case of genuine lone wolves.

Second, ISIS itself has claimed direct responsibility for the assault, declaring in a statement released on 14 November via Twitter and pro-ISIS Telegram channels – and verified by authoritative sources such as the SITE Intelligence Group. ISIS claimed that eight “soldiers of the Caliphate” attacked Paris, the “capital of prostitution and obscenity” and the “carrier of the banner of the Cross in Europe”.

Third, though police investigations in France and neighbouring Belgium are continuing, it seems clear that rather than a lone wolf operation, the Paris attacks were planned in Syria and carried out by a sleeper cell in Belgium, based within the widely acknowledged radical Islamist extremist stronghold of Molenbeek, “a run-down east Brussels commune that has long been a magnet for jihadists, gangs, drugs and lawlessness”.

Fourth and finally, it seems clear that the Paris attacks herald the start of a more concerted effort by ISIS to destabilise and if possible split the coalition arrayed against it, starting with France, in recent months the Western country that has been arguably the most aggressive in its attacks on the Al Qaeda offshoot. What should not be lost on observers is the warning in the ISIS statement that “this attack is the first of the storm and a warning to those who wish to learn”.

Harbinger of things to come?

As it turns out, a few days before the Paris attack, two ISIS operatives blew themselves up in a crowded marketplace in a Hezbollah stronghold in the multi-ethnic district of Bourj al-Barajneh in Beirut, Lebanon, killing 44 people. In early November, moreover, a Russian Metrojet commercial aircraft crashed in the Sinai, killing all 224 aboard. Analysts believe a bomb destroyed the aircraft in mid-air, and ISIS has claimed responsibility for this attack as well.

In short, rather than prosecuting an indirect strategy by just relying on isolated lone wolves inspired by the general ISIS message to conduct piecemeal attacks, Paris, and possibly the Metrojet and Beirut cases, hint at a significant refinement and intensification of this indirect tack.

ISIS may well have also decided to use trained sleeper cells, comprising a combination of homegrown extremists and returning, trained fighters from Syria and Iraq, to engage in sophisticated and purposefully coordinated urban terrorism, targeting soft civilian targets in various coalition capitals. The Paris incident may thus be the harbinger of what is to come. As far as the coalition is concerned, therefore, to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

*Kumar Ramakrishna is Associate Professor and Head of Policy Studies in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.


Prosperous Diaspora Has Increasing Influence In India’s Domestic Politics – Analysis

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Modi’s BJP organizes lavish overseas receptions for Modi, using enthusiasm of Indian diaspora to create database for next election.

By Dilip Hiro*

On November 13 at London’s storied Wembley Stadium, globalization met traditional politics from another continent. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, making a state visit to the UK, received a warm public reception and song-and-dance extravaganza. The gathering of some 60,000 British Indians selected through community organizations had a serious purpose – build a database of overseas Indians to help reelect Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, in 2019. The party’s 2014 landslide win was supported by many non-resident Indians. Building on that success, BJP’s central office has focused on bolstering its Overseas Friends of BJP arm to induct the diaspora into reinforcing its machine with internet skills and generous donations to the party through meticulous planning and implementation presented as spontaneous exuberance of overseas Indians for Modi.

Repeating the 2014 success seems to be the overarching aim of elaborate planning behind meticulously orchestrated welcomes accorded Modi during his trips to the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Britain over the past 14 months. The activities do not violate Indian law.

The Overseas Friends of BJP will continue to orchestrate the key part in this scheme The vast majority of OFBJP ranks are members of the Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh, the foreign arm of the Hindu chauvinist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, RSS or National Volunteer Association. According to Indian-American businessman Chandrakant Patel, head of the OFBJP (US), nearly 5,000 non-resident Indians flew home before the 2014 election to campaign for the party, Some 3,500 left Britain for the same reason, most of BJP backers with a minority supporting non-BJP groups.

In 2014 BJP targeted 155 urban constituencies out of 543, labeled “digital seats” because of ease of access to voters unlike rural constituencies with minimal internet connections, and the party secured assistance of OFBJP members. Party headquarters supplied voter lists. In the United States, the 4,000-strong OFBJP corps recruited volunteers who traveled to India to campaign. “The others will make/send at least 200 calls and SMSs every day from the US,” said Patel. Such calls helped reduce abstention rates among middle or upper-middle class friends or relatives who might consider politics a dirty business and not bother to vote.

By staging enthusiastic rallies featuring Modi in Madison Square Garden and Wembley Stadium, these numbers are set to rise in 2019.

The origin of this procedure can be traced to the BJP’s second successive defeat in the 2009 general election. The following year, BJP leaders installed an IT cell at the party’s headquarters in Delhi. Known as the National Digital Operations Cell, or N-Doc, the party established a database of nearly one million people who had over the years contacted the party across various platforms. With N-Doc focusing on the digital urban constituencies, a majority of the potential foot soldiers turned into election campaigners.

After a landslide victory in the 2014 poll – despite winning only 31 percent of the popular vote, thanks to vagaries of the first-past-the-pole electoral system – BJP leaders decided to enlarge the OFBJP. This task was to be coordinated with foreign trips that Prime Minister Narendra Modi intended to make.

An elaborate procedure was worked out for the public reception for Modi at Madison Square Garden in New York on 28 September 2014 – drawing an audience of 19,000 Indian-Americans who cheered for Modi.

To gain an entry pass, applicants had to email their postal address, passport and driving license details, and names of the Indian voluntary organization to which they belonged. Event organizers obtained names of such associations independently and compared those with lists maintained by the Indian Embassy.

The Madison Square Garden procedure, using Indian community organizations that registered with the event organizing committee, was finessed by Vijay Chauthaiwale, who later now heads the BJP foreign-policy cell in Delhi. He allotted quotas, based on size of registered organizations, which had not been done before.

“I have traveled for the preparations of the Diaspora events,” he told the Delhi-based Business Standard on 25 August. “The first thing I tell everyone is not about the BJP or the OFBJP event, but about the entire community.” Modi handpicked Chauthaiwale, a lifelong member of RSS. With a doctorate in microbiology, he had served as a vice-president for a pharmaceutical company.

A study of the reception at London’s Wembley Stadium on 13 November shows how shrewdly the BJP hides its political agenda with a non-political mask.  Soon after taking up his job in November 2014, Chauthaiwale, traveled to London for meetings with officials of the foreign arm of RSS (UK).

In spring of 2015, there was preliminary planning for Modi’s London trip after the newly elected Conservative majority government led by David Cameron was sworn in. In late June, four Indian businessmen set up the Europe India Forum, EIF, as a private limited company without shareholders. Nath Puri, one of the directors, acted as the official spokesman for what was routinely described as a not-for-profit company. Press releases were dispatched describing EIF as the organizer of Modi’s reception in November.

On 15 September, its website, www.ukwelcomesmodi.org, published a list of more than 400 community organizations, all said to have signed up to welcome Modi at Wembley Stadium. Each was given a quota and a code, to be shared with members for registering on the website. The prime mover was Chauthaiwale. In his interview with the Indian Express, published two days earlier, he explained that his effort was to set up a nonprofit specific to the event and install an organizing committee. “Once this structure is in place, I back off,” he continued. “But I am still in touch… I help in coordination with the PMO [Prime Minister’s Office]. The [Indian] embassy is there, but we facilitate.”

Sure enough, at the UK Welcomes Modi Community Partner reception on 4 October, Chauthaiwale attended along with leading members of the organizing committee – Puri and Shashikant Patel, the national treasurer of the OFBJP (UK) – along with the Indian High Commissioner Ranjan Mathai.

Once the organizing committee accepted an applicant’s online registration, he or she was given a reference number which they had to bring along with passport or driving license for entry – for attendees, this seemed a routine security precaution.

Many who filled two-thirds of 90,000-seat Wembley Stadium, may not realize that their names and email addresses are part of a database at BJP’s headquarters in Delhi. Come the next election, they will most likely be urged to act as campaign volunteers or make donations.

After a glitzy show of song and dance, Cameron introduced Modi to the audience. Modi hugged the British prime minister before delivering his speech in Hindi. Given to praising the place where he speaks, Modi pointed out that it was “the soil of London” that had given birth to India’s “freedom struggle” – in so far as such top leaders of the Indian independence movement as Mahatma Mohandas Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru had spent time there. Despite this tribute to London, with the exception of a few newspapers, Modi’s gesture was ignored or mentioned only briefly by Britain’s press.

The news report that the Indian and British companies had inked agreed £9 billion, or $13.6 billion, in deals for the retail, logistics, energy, finance, IT, education and health sectors was also grist to the mill.

All in all, exploiting the digital revolution to the fullest, the BJP is set to create an international support network the like of which has not been seen before, much to the alarm of the opposition, the secular Congress Party.

*Dilip Hiro is the author of 36 books, the latest being The Age of Aspiration:Power, Wealth and Conflict in Globalizing India, published by The New Press, New York and London.  Read an excerpt.

Read a review of the book, first published in India by HarperCollins Publishers India in 2014 as Indians in a Globalizing World: Their Skewed Rise.

Bright Prospects: Repairing Neurons With Light

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Scientists at Helmholtz Zentrum München have succeeded in stimulating the regeneration of injured neurons in living fish by the use of light. To this end, they employed so-called Optogenetics, i.e. light inducible protein activation. The results have recently been published in the journal ‘Current Biology’.

The nervous system is built to last a lifetime, but diverse diseases or environmental insults can overpower the capacity of neurons to maintain function or to repair after trauma. A team led by Dr. Hernán López-Schier, head of the Research Unit Sensory Biology and Organogenesis at Helmholtz Zentrum München, now succeeded in promoting the repair of an injured neural circuit in zebrafish.

Key for the researchers’ success was the messenger molecule cAMP, which is produced by an enzyme called adenylyl cyclase. For their experiment, the scientist used a special form of this enzyme which is inducible by blue light. Therefore, the scientists are able to specifically modulate the production of cAMP in cells expressing this enzyme by the use of blue light.*

The researchers used this system in zebrafish larvae** which had interrupted sensory lateralis nerves***. “However, when blue light was shone on severed nerves that expressed a photoactivatable adenylyl cyclase, their repair was dramatically increased,” remembers PhD student Yan Xiao who is the first author of the study. “While untreated nerve terminals only made synapses again in five percent of the cases, about 30% did after photostimulation.”

In simple terms: the scientists were able to stimulate the repair of a neuronal circuit by elevating cAMP with blue light.

“Optogenetics have revolutionized neurobiology, since the method has already been used to modify for instance the electrical activity of neurons. However, our results show for the first time how the repair of a complex neural circuit in a whole animal can be promoted remotely by the use of light,” explained López-Schier.

But the head of the study thinks that this is only the beginning.

“Our results are a first step. Now we would like to investigate, whether these results can be extrapolated beyond single neurons in zebrafish, to more complex neuronal circuits of higher animals.” The scientist could think of using this method for future therapeutic approaches for the treatment of neuropathies like those occurring in the wake of Diabetes and other diseases.

* Optogenetics: As the name indicates, this cutting-edge technology combines elements of Optics and Genetics. Scientists make use of proteins which are sensitive to certain wavelengths of light. These are brought into the target cells with certain genetic methods. The so treated cells then change their respective phenotype depending on the exposure to light.

** Larvae of zebrafish are particularly well suited for optogenetic approaches, since their skin in transparent/translucent. Thus, the light can reach the respective target cells easily.

*** These nerves normally communicate external sensory signals to the brain, but cannot normally repair after injury.

Kosovo Detains Three On Terrorism Charges

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By Labinot Leposhtica and Petrit Collaku

A Kosovo court on Tuesday placed three Kosovars in custody for 30 days on suspicion that they intended to join Islamic militants in Syria.

A Kosovo court has placed three Kosovo nationals, arrested in Turkey on November 14, in custody for 30 days on suspicion of terrorism.

The three flew to Istanbul from Skopje and allegedly intended to go to Syria and join the conflict there.

Tahir Isufi, 29, from Mitrovica, Ismajl Zeneli, 21, from Vushtrri and Nora Zuzaku, 22, from Gjilan were transported back to Skopje airport in Macedonia on November 15.

Kosovo police arrested them at the Hani i Elezit crossing border with Macedonia.

During police interviews in Kosovo, Isufi denied having planned to go to Syria and insisted the destination was only Istanbul.

“I had a return ticket and my aim was to visit Istanbul,” Isufi is quoted as saying in the judge’s decision on 30 days’ custody.

But Ismajl Zeneli and Nora Zuzaku admitted to Kosovo police that the destination was Syria, which they knew was against the law.

Zeneli told police that their destination was Syria and said he knew the action was reckless. “I regret my action and I will never repeat it,” Zeneli said.

Nora Zuzaku also told the prosecutor that the main destination was Syria. “My aim was to join my sister who is in Syria but I am happy to return to Kosovo,” Zuzaku said.

The judge at Pristina District Court stated that the defendants committed a criminal offence, if they aimed to join the conflict in Syria.

“The defendants had an intention to join the ISIS terrorist group and were prevented from continuing… by Turkish authorities,” the judge’s decision reads.

In March 2015, Kosovo adopted a law punishing participation in foreign conflicts with up to 15 years in jail – part of the government’s measures aimed at tackling the issue of Kosovars heading to the Middle East and fighting for Islamist extremists.

Police raided two locations connected to the suspects in Kosovo and said they found relevant evidence but they did not provide information on what kind of evidence they found.

Around 40 hardliners, including imams and alleged former fighters, are on trial in Kosovo following a crackdown that lasted from autumn 2014 to spring 2015.

More than 200 fighters from Kosovo have reportedly joined the ranks of ISIS and Al Nusra in Syria and Iraq.

South Africa, Netherlands Deepen Cooperation

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South Africa and the Netherlands elevated their longstanding relations on Tuesday, placing a focus on trade and investment.

President Jacob Zuma received Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is on a two-day official visit to South Africa, at the Union Buildings.

At a media briefing, the President said the visit by the Prime Minister would take relations and cooperation – which dates back to 1994 – to a higher level.

The two countries have since 1994 forged a solid partnership that transcends many fields including economic, education, agriculture, trade, science and technology, education, judicial, multilateral and culture to mention but a few.

“We are in agreement on the need at this time to elevate our relations. We are pleased that our ministers responsible for foreign affairs will sign the agreement establishing a Joint Commission at The Hague on Thursday, which will help to coordinate and guide the broad and substantive scope of our relationship,” said President Zuma.

He said total trade between the two countries had increased consistently from R27 billion in 2010 to R48 billion in 2014.

The Dutch have also invested in about 40 projects in South Africa with direct investment volume estimated at over R14 billion over the period 2003 to 2015 in financial services, aerospace, transport, business services, biotechnology and information technology and software sectors.

President Zuma said he was looking forward to enhanced relations between the two countries, building on the rich history and common beliefs in democracy, freedom, human rights, equality and other values that make the world a better place.

Prime Minister Rutte is accompanied by a sizeable business delegation while on his visit, which President Zuma said augurs well for the countries’ economic relations.

He said trade and investment were the backbone of relations that exist between the two countries.

The Prime Minister said President Zuma was putting a lot of effort into managing the economy, working on inclusive growth, creating jobs and realising South Africa’s full potential.

He said the Netherlands will help South Africa in achieving these goals.

“We have committed [to] long term investing and sharing knowledge and expertise to create solid and sustainable solutions. The longstanding relationship between our countries is strong and matured,” said the Prime Minister.

Ministers from both countries signed agreements on Tuesday, which the two countries’ leaders said will deepen cooperation on a broad range of issues. These include agreements in agriculture, migration, science and technology, among others.

Ahead of the official media briefing, the two leaders held a meeting in which they discussed more possible investment opportunities, such as in South Africa’s ocean economy, energy and other key priorities.

“The message we want to communicate to our Dutch partners is simple and clear: South Africa is open for business and investment,” said President Zuma.

The Prime Minister said he has brought along with him a team from Netherlands that will help South Africa in expertise regarding dealing with water shortages.

“Their works started on Monday and will continue tomorrow,” he said.

South Africa is currently experiencing a drought.

Outright Purchase Of Sukuk By Pakistan Government

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An auction of Outright Purchase of GIS by Government of Pakistan on deferred payment (Bai Muajjal) basis was held on November 17, 2015, Sukuk Delivery date of November 18, 2015.

The bid summary for GIS 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 is as following; Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 10.36.13 PM
Out of the above bids, the accepted bids were as under:
Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 10.36.53 PM

Slight Decline Noted In US Shale Oil Industry – Analysis

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Crude oil production from major US shale plays is expected to drop in December 2015 by 118 thousand barrels per day compared to November and will reach the figure of 4.95 million barrels per day, said the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) experts.

Earlier, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak also said that the decline in shale oil production became a steady trend of recent months.

“When prices plummet, investment runs low. The number of drilling rigs in the United States reduced: a year ago there were 1,600 drilling rigs, now only about 600. That means that the number of drilling rigs reduced by more than 50%. In the last three months shale oil production decreased by 300 thousand barrels,” he said, stressing that shale oil is losing its ability to influence the global market.

In turn, Igor Sechin, the Executive Chairman of Rosneft, noted that the United States has a whole set of factors that shape the development of a competitive oil market.

“These are financial sources, financial derivatives, stock exchanges, a developed system of oil and gas pipelines and a large number of contractors that multiply the effect of the industry on the whole economy,” he explained.

At the same time, Igor Sechin reminded that the total debt of only 25 US companies involved in shale oil extraction is about 150 billion dollars.

“It is estimated that the existing hedging mechanisms and extended credit secured by inventory at low prices may persist, although to a lesser extent, up to 2017,” the head of the Russian state company added.

Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg View contributor, also stressed that the creditworthiness of the oil companies, both small and large, has declined substantially.

“In the second quarter of 2015, 83% of US onshore oil producers’ operating cash flow was used for debt servicing ― about twice the level of early 2012,” he noted.

Commenting on the current state and recent trends in the US shale oil industry, Nikolay Ivanov, Head of the Energy Markets Division at the Institute for Energy and Finance, expressed the opinion that the United States from the world’s biggest importer of energy resources becomes increasingly self-sufficient state in terms of energy.

“US shale gas and oil production became a great surprise for the world market as well as for all analytical and research agencies, including the Energy Information Administration ― the main independent investigative arm of the US government, which forecasts become the basis for the entire energy policy of the country,” he said in an interview with “PenzaNews” agency.

According to him, such production was a result of the explosive growth of the technologies efficiency, when every new improvement led to a multiple increase in productive capacity and reduced costs.

“Therefore, the industry continues to expand even in the face of low prices for oil and gas. And there is yet no limit to the improvement of technology and efficiency,” the expert said.

At the same time, in his opinion, many companies intentionally reduce production in order not to sell the extracted oil at a price they consider unfair.

“They hope that in competition with Saudi Arabia the victory will be for the American high-tech production,” Nikolay Ivanov said, adding that the US has become the second balancing supplier at the global oil market.

Howard Rogers, Director of Natural Gas Research Program at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, also reminded that as with US shale gas a few years earlier the speed of production growth in US shale oil has surprised many observers.

“This along with slowing demand in Asia and OPEC’s desire to maintain market share has been a major contributor to lower oil prices which fell around November 2014. Most observers have been surprised that since the price collapse, US oil production has only recently began to decline,” the analyst noted.

The main reason for that from his point of view was that the producers focused on their best drilling locations in the face of lower oil prices.

“Moreover, many producers had hedged or sold production forward for up to around a year on the futures market, and many producers had lower production costs than had been assumed ― especially when service company margins were squeezed after the oil price fall,” the expert explained.

Nevertheless, he suggested that we may start to see some further reduction in the production as hedging prices are now lower and many companies have built up high debt levels.

At the same time, according to David Hughes, earth scientist and research manager at the Geological Survey of Canada, the decline in the industry has already begun.

“Production of shale oil in the US is falling due to the drop in price and associated drop in rig counts. The rapid growth in oil production from shale has been part of the oversupply problem in world markets, leading to lower prices. Declining US production will help rebalance the market and lead to higher prices,” Canadian scientist said.

Meanwhile, according to him, US shale gas has had no effect on global prices so far as there is no liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market yet.

“The first LNG export terminal is set to come on stream later this year or early next year. This will likely have minimal effect on the global market in terms of prices,” the expert noted.

However, in his opinion, sale production will be important in the longer term.

“But high decline rates and increasing costs as sweet spots are depleted will require ever escalating capital inputs which will require higher prices. High quality shale plays are relatively rare, hence longer term production from known shale plays will fall dramatically by 2040,” David Hughes said.

In turn, Michelle Foss, Chief Energy Economist, Bureau of Economic Geology’s Center for Energy Economics, University of Texas, also pointed to the fact that the US shale oil production has started to decline.

“We expect around 1.5 million barrels per day decline over 2016 or so ― not only from shale, but other oil producing locations as well. Most companies have announced delays or cancellations on offshore, especially deep water projects. Generally speaking, as companies pull back on spending, output from US fields will drop and decline rates in some locations will accelerate,” the analyst explained.

However, she recalled that the shale oil has allowed the United States to significantly reduce imports of this resource.

“Before drilling for shale oil accelerated, the US imported more than 50% of oil supply. With our shale production growth, imports dropped to about 40%. So the biggest impact we have on global energy is how much oil we buy from abroad. If we take less oil from international producers or exporters, those barrels have to find a home somewhere else or price will drop. The problem is that there is not much demand for oil elsewhere in the world relative to supply,” the economist said.

She added that prospects of this industry development are pretty uncertain.

“Industry response when price falls as it has is always slow. However, given that expectations are starting to solidify around a ‘lower for longer’ oil price scenario, we expect next year, especially first half, to be worse than today in terms of industry reactions,” Michelle Foss said.

In her opinion, companies will be forced to lay off more people, sell assets, and consolidate.

“Companies cannot continue to operate business as usual ― they have to make decisions, take action, move on. […]Our shale oil production blossomed under some rather unique circumstances, especially with regard to investment flows ― the high degree of interest in owning shares of oil companies, participating in investment funds for oil drilling in the US, and so on. Money has been pretty cheap. Those things are going to change,” the American expert concluded.

Where Are The Christian Refugees From Syria?

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Christians and other religious minorities in Syria have been targeted for death, sexual slavery, displacement, cultural eradication and forced conversion by ISIS.

Many of these persecuted Christians hope to escape to the United States. They have been largely excluded, with the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration admitting to officials at The Barnabas Fund, a Christian relief agency, “There is no way that Christians will be supported because of their religious affiliation.”

According to data from the State Department’s Refugee Processing Center for Fiscal Year 2015, resettled Syrian refugees were 97 percent Muslim.

The Hudson Institute’s Nina Shea, in a November 2 article in National Review, showed that in the past five years 53 out of 2003 Syrian refugees accepted by the United States have been Christians (about 2.5 percent of the total). But about 10 percent of Syrians are Christians.

According to IRD Religious Liberty Director Faith McDonnell, “The U.S. government’s response has been woefully inadequate – neither helping these minorities defend themselves and stay, nor providing them asylum to leave.”

McDonnell added that, “Christians cannot go to UN-run refugee camps because there they face the same persecution and terror from which they fled. If they are not in the refugee camps they are not included in the application process for asylum. The State Department knows this, but continues to allow the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees to select refugees for asylum with no regard to the endangered religious minorities.

According to McDonnell, the blame is not just with the UN and the administration. US organizations who resettle refuges are also to blame. “This includes Christian groups that resist any focus on Christian victims of ISIS, and oppose actions by Congress to welcome not just economic migrants but also Christians and other religious minorities victimized by ISIS,” McDonnell, said.

McDonnell noted that, “Other religious minorities-such as Jews, Yazidis, Mandaeans, Shia Shabaks and Turkmen-are also being targeted, and largely left out of refugee resettlement. Shea notes that only one Yazidi was resettled in the U.S. in the past five years of Syria’s civil war, even though thousands of Yazidi girls are taken as sex slaves by ISIS.”


How To Beat Islamic State: Obama Is Partly Right – OpEd

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By Walter Russell Mead*

In a contentious press conference, President Obama vowed to stay the course regarding his ISIS policy in the wake of the Paris attacks. The AP reports:

President Barack Obama on Monday conceded that the Paris terror attacks were a “terrible and sickening setback” in the fight against the Islamic State, but forcefully dismissed critics who have called for the U.S. to change or expand its military campaign against the extremists.

“The strategy that we are putting forward is the strategy that is ultimately is going to work,” Obama said during a news conference at the close of two days of talks with world leaders. “It’s going to take time.”

Both in the United States and abroad, the reaction to the President’s statement has been largely negative. There is a very widespread view that President Obama’s own dilatory leadership style and his refusal to engage seriously in Syria gave ISIS the room it needed to take root and grow. It’s likely that future historians will agree; this president is unlikely to be hailed as a strategic genius by anybody not on his payroll.

Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that President Obama isn’t just blowing smoke when he talks about successes against ISIS. In particular, the strategy of helping the Kurds push ISIS back has led to significant progress on the ground. Just last week, the Kurds cleared ISIS out of Sinjar, and as a result of its military setbacks, ISIS has less access to fresh supplies and recruits coming through Turkey.

This matters. Groups like ISIS depend on two power sources. One is the radical jihadi ideology that now circulates widely among discontented Muslims and rootless young people in the Middle East and elsewhere. The other is the sense of victory and drama. ISIS needs to create wins and excitement to lure new recruits and keep its current fighters loyal and inspired.

The self-styled caliphate isn’t a major military power and has only been able to acquire and hold territory because of state breakdown in Iraq and Syria. For the last few years, ISIS has been following a successful formula: Rapid military gains on the ground led to a huge international profile, which in turn attracted jihadis from all around the globe and established the organization as the new leader of radical Islam. ISIS advertises its success with the pornography of jihad: bloody executions posted on the web, widespread announcements that it is selling captured girls in slave markets, massacres of the “heathen.”

The goal of the terrorists has always been to escape the drab realities of ordinary history and events, to create a kind of magical space—a return to the 7th century, the age of the Prophet, of miracles and legends. Joining the group offered a real life version of a video game.

The problem the jihadis are now facing is that while it is easy to create this kind of illusion in the short term, it is very hard to make it work over the long run. History grinds that kind of illusion down and drags those who tried to sustain it back into the world of real forces, real obstacles, real (as Clausewitz would say) friction.

We’ve seen this before. After 9/11, the great and dramatic attack created a legend, but then al-Qaeda was dragged down, and dogged by its adversaries. The group managed to survive the U.S. attacks on Afghanistan, but, despite that, this attrition little-by-little (and sometimes big step-by-big step) damaged the brand. ISIS represented a new approach, and its victorious march across Syria and Iraq electrified the jihadi universe. But now ISIS, too, is beginning to sag.

On the ground these days, ISIS is engaged in a war of inches that will likely test its capacity to the limits, like its (lack of) ability to manage and operate supply lines, for example. The poor training and quality of its fighters will also now matter more. And the absence of dramatic victories, indeed the reality of setbacks and retreats, will reduce the enthusiasm and undercut the morale of current fighters, to say nothing of the impact on potential recruits.

This may be one reason why ISIS has apparently shifted to prioritize attacks like the Paris horror. It likely needs the acts of drama and violence to replace the revolutionary theater that its military advances once gave it. Running wild through the streets, gunning down the crowds in a night club: This is fantasy violence, video games brought into the real world. ISIS is again the coolest of jihadi brands, the cutting edge of the war against the real. The intent is not so much to terrorize the West as to galvanize the faithful.

Understanding ISIS’ methods can help us counter its aims. One key for us: to step up the grim war of attrition against ISIS on the ground. Life for the average ISIS fighter has to become a miserable affair of holing up, getting shot, running out of food, and putting up with bad medical care and low supplies even as the higher-ups live it up in the ruins of Raqqa. That word needs to filter out across the jihadi grapevine. To cut the flow of recruits and funds to ISIS, we must make ISIS look unattractive and weak—drab. If at the same time we work aggressively to reduce its ability to repeat the Paris attacks, ISIS will continue to fade.

This is a way to weaken ISIS, but it won’t solve the problem of jihadi violence. The cultural fugue of the Islamic world will continue to generate new disorders, new radicalisms, new waves of hate and murder. And the stories of the glory days of the Caliphate and legends of ISIS will continue to resonate and inspire new waves of jihad, just as the legend of al-Qaeda did before it.

But defeat hurts—and the more we keep whacking moles, the more discouraged the other moles will be. So the defeat of “terrorism” is a long way off. But the defeat of individual terrorist groups and forms of jihadi ideology, while short of a complete solution to the problem, is good in and of itself, and it contributes to the long term solution: the definitive disillusionment of potential radicals.

This is what we have to teach our enemies and those tempted to join them: disenchantment. There is no magic road back to the 7th century triumphs of Islam. That door is closed. The Islamic world, like the rest of us, must live in the real world of the 21st century.

So President Obama is partly right. The American partnership with the Kurds has inflicted real damage on ISIS. But he’s wrong if he thinks what we have done is enough, or that a few incremental shipments of ammo and MREs will do the trick. The battle against ISIS is one campaign in a long and brutal war. The bloodiest battles and the greatest dangers may still lie ahead.

About the author:
*Walter Russell Mead,
Distinguished Scholar, American Strategy and Statesmanship

Source:
This article was published at American Interest and Hudson Institute, and republished with permission.

Philippines: Remarks By President Obama After Touring BRP Gregorio Del Pilar

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US President Barack Obama on Tuesday visited the Philippine Navy’s flagship US-made BRP Gregorio Del Pilar, which was formerly a US Coast Guard cutter that was acquired by the Philippines in 2011.

Obama’s move risks irking China, which is embroiled in a bitter territorial row over the South China Sea with the Philippines and some of its other Asian neighbors, according to DefenseNews.com

Obama landed in the Philippines after attending the Group of 20 summit of leading nations in Turkey.

Following are President Obama’s remarks after touring BRP Gregorio Del Pilar, as provided by the White House.

*****

Good afternoon, everybody. It is wonderful to be back in the Philippines. And I want to thank Secretary Gazmin, General Iriberri, Rear Admiral Alano and Melad, Captain Sibala, and the members of the Philippine Armed Forces for welcoming me here today. I want to acknowledge the American servicemembers who are here and who are part of our unbreakable alliance.

The United States has been committed to the security of this region for more than 70 years. We have a treaty obligation, an ironclad commitment to the defense of our ally, the Philippines. You can count on the United States.

My visit here underscores our shared commitment to the security of the waters of this region and to the freedom of navigation. This watch center was built with U.S. grants. The ship that I just toured, a former U.S. Coast Guard vessel, helps the Philippines respond to disasters, perform counterterrorism missions, and patrol the South China Sea.

Today, I can announce that we intend to transfer two additional ships to the Philippine Navy, a research vessel to help map its territorial waters, and another U.S. Coast Guard cutter to bolster the Navy’s ability to conduct long-endurance patrols. It’s part of our larger plan to increase maritime security assistance to our allies and our partners across the region — $250 million over the course of two years. More capable navies and partnership with the United States are critical to the security of this region.

And I want to thank once again the members of the Philippine Armed Forces for their outstanding work. And, Mr. Secretary, I can tell you that after inspection, the ship looks like it’s in tip-top shape. Thank you so much. (Applause.)

US Joint Chiefs Chairman Warns Against Underestimating Islamic State

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By Jim Garamone

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is “a very sophisticated organization” and that “it would be a mistake to underestimate them,” the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

Marine Corps Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. told the Wall Street Journal’s Chief Executive Officer Council that the terror group has proven to be adaptive and resilient.

At the tactical level, “they’ve got a number of individuals who are very highly trained, and they have demonstrated proficiency in some of the operations they have conducted,” he said. “The Paris operation is an example and what we see in Syria and Iraq routinely – fairly capable military forces.”

But ISIL is vulnerable, the chairman said, noting that the coalition has more than 60 nations arrayed against the group And that ISIL is isolated. “They are also reliant on an immature logistics and sustainment plan,” he added. “We’re just starting to get after their resources.”

Hitting Infrastructure That Funds ISIL

Over the past two weeks, coalition aircraft have hit the gas and oil infrastructure that has been funding ISIL. “They will have fewer resources and they will have more difficulty,” Dunford said. On the ground, the strategy is to isolate them so they are not able to move foreign fighters and resources to reinforce threatened areas, the general said.

Dunford emphasized that there of the nine lines of effort against ISIL, only two are under the Defense Department. “Seven others – to include the narrative against ISIL, the foreign fighters, to include financing – are led by the State Department, [the U.S. Agency for International Development], and so on,” he said.

The coalition relies on local ground forces to confront the terror group, the chairman noted. “Right now, we are reliant on Iraqi security forces, the [Kurdish] peshmerga, [and] provisional militia, both Shia and Sunni,” he said. “In Syria, we are reliant upon forces broadly called Syrian democratic forces.”

There is little enthusiasm for Western forces on the ground, Dunford said. “We would like to see Sunni forces – particularly the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states, to contribute to a greater degree on the ground,” he said. “I think they would have the credibility and come, frankly, without the baggage of Western forces. I think there is some possibility of doing that. We haven’t been able to do that to date, but I think it is something we need to work on.”

If Arab nations were to express interest in providing ground forces, “I think we would absolutely be in a position to support them,” the general said.

Dunford said he does not want to see a large Western force in the region, because that could serve to actually spur ISIL’s recruiting efforts.

Bringing Our Values to War

How the force is used also counts, the nation’s top military officer said. “When we go to war, we go with our values,” the chairman explained. “We plan with proportionality and we execute with discrimination in terms of the targets we are going after. We’re very careful in terms of civilian casualties, and some have criticized us for that. I will not apologize for that, because we are fighting the long fight, and for us to do otherwise would be shortsighted.”

The people of the region want to be released from the ISIL shackles, the general said.

“What they are looking for is decisive action, and that will rally them to our cause,” Dunford said. “If they believe that we are committed, if they believe we are going to stay the course, I think there is a much higher probability of them supporting us. I would draw a distinction between decisive, aggressive action we are taking right now and potentially a large Western force that would be a rallying cry to jihad.”

Israel Outlaws Nation’s Leading Muslim Group – OpEd

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Contemplate this: the Department of Homeland Security announces that henceforth the Nation of Islam, the Westboro Baptist Church, and Zionist Organization of America are outlawed organizations.  They are considered supporters of a terrorist ideology and must completely dissolve their organizations and their programs.  Anyone found to be a member of any of the groups is liable to criminal prosecution.

In response, the groups refuse to accept the decree.  They announce that in order to continue representing the legitimate interests of their followers and co-religionists, they are going underground.  They denounce the decision as a serious violation of the Constitution and call upon the nation to protest it.  The result: dead silence.  Everyone who hasn’t been banned is too cowed to put up much of a fight, though scores of the remaining legal groups know the new policy is unjust and a grave violation of civil liberties.

That scenario sounds pretty far-fetched here in the U.S. (though China currently does precisely this to Tibetan Buddhists and the Falun Gong, and Iran does the same to the Bahai).  But it isn’t far-fetched at all in Israel.  Defense Minister Yaalon, a political ally of Kahanist Moshe Feiglin, took advantage of the terror hysteria sweeping the globe to outlaw the northern branch of the Islamic Movement, Israel’s leading Islamic organization.  Keep in mind that this is the same guy whom the NY Times’ Tom Friedman called “Israel’s very decent defense minister,” in a recent column.  Can you imagine what Friedman’s definition of ‘decent’ is?  Or better yet, what his definition of ‘decency’ is?

Its leader Sheikh Raed Saleh, has just been jailed for the umpteenth time for some offense or another.  Saleh, who successfully fought banning by the UK Tory government, is the equivalent of Malcolm X in the Israeli Palestinian community.

He is a fiery, uncompromising advocate for Muslim unity.  An implacable opponent of Israeli oppression of his co-religionists.  The Movement spearheaded resistance to Israeli encroachment on the Haram al Sharif.  Though it has never advocated violence or been charged with engaging in it, nevertheless the Israeli government blames the group for fomenting all of the Palestinian attacks against Jews over the past two months.

According to the Israeli Jewish narrative, everyone is to blame for anti-Israel terror: ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Islam–and now the Northern Movement.  Everyone, that is, except Israel.  It is never to blame for the bloodshed and massacres it inflicts.  It is merely a victim, defending itself against terrorist monsters like those who struck in Paris.

Is Saleh and the Northern Movement angry and defiant? Yes.  Is it an implacable foe of injustice against Israeli Muslims? Yes.  Is its rhetoric intemperate at times? Yes.  But is it a terror group?  Does it commit or advocate violence? Does it advocate overthrowing the State?  No, to all of the above.  In fact, Israel’s Shin Bet chief, Yoram Cohen, rejected the cabinet’s assertions regarding the Movement.  He said explicitly that it does not promote terror and that banning it is a mistake.

I warn the pro-Israel crowd here that you can dredge up misquotes and mistranslation from the Jerusalem Post and MEMRI all you want.  It won’t change the fact that this banning is inherently racist and Islamophobic (no Jewish terror group has been similar banned though there was talk of banning the Jewish fascist group, Lehava).  I have no interest in parsing propaganda tracts alleging Saleh said this or that, which you will all undoubtedly be marshalling to defend this outrageous decision.  So I put you on notice and a short leash.Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 11.18.17 PM

As I wrote above, this banning is a cynical ploy by the defense minister seeking to kiss-up to his Kahanist settler constituency. It seeks also to criminalize a large cross-section of Israeli Muslims who are loyal to the NOrthern Movement, which plays a huge role in providing a social safety net among this community.   As NoamR tweeted (“What Yaalon did today in his infinite wisdom, was to take a large, cautious organization which was under a magnifying glass, whose every step was openly reported, and send it underground: a declaration of war”), this decree is not just anti-democratic, it will drive the Movement underground just as the Egyptian junta has driven the Muslim Brotherhood underground.  In Egypt, the result has been a series of bloody bombings and terror attacks by Egyptian Islamists angry at the massacres of the military regime directed against their followers.

This move by Yaalon will drive an even greater wedge between Jews and Muslims within Israel.  It will provoke more violence on both sides, more hatred.  As Noam wrote, it is nothing less than a declaration of war.  Until this time, the most savage violence was between Israeli Jews and Occupied Palestinians.  Henceforth, the action will gradually shift to within Israel itself.  The Palestinians of Israel are a loyal, long-suffering and generally quiescent regarding their second or third-class citizenship.  That may all be changing.  When it does, you will not have just a war between Israel and Palestine.  You will have a civil war within Israel: Israeli Jewish citizens murdering Israeli Palestinian citizens.  In the name of nationalist supremacy.

Israel is a State going to Hell in a handbasket.  It’s worst enemy is itself.  I have never witnessed a train wreck.  But watching this insanity slowly unfold is the closest thing to it.

I have been exploring what sort of organized protest or movement may spring up around this issue.  It is the sort of grave injustice which demands mass protest and the cooperation of disparate groups.  Speaking of which, watch what the Israeli “left” does and says around this issue.  Remember what I wrote above about “silence?”

This article was published at Tikun Olam.

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry – Analysis

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By Nick Cunningham

Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.

The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. “Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices,” the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.

Russian officials have accused Saudi Arabia of “dumping” its oil in Europe, a move that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin said would “backfire.”

Russia’s economy has been battered by the collapse in crude prices, compounded by the screws of western sanctions. The Russian economy could shrink by 3.2 percent this year.

Oil exports account for around half of the revenue taken in by the Russian government. And for an economy so dependent on oil, it is no surprise that the plummeting crude oil price has led to a dramatic depreciation of the ruble, although over the past month the currency regained some lost ground. The weakening currency has pushed up inflation, which creates a conundrum for the Russian central bank.

To stop the ruble from plunging further and to keep inflation from spiraling ever upwards, the Russian central bank took aggressive action by hiking interest rates to as high as 17 percent at the beginning of 2015. However, that has negatively impacted the economy. As the ruble stabilized, the bank dialed the interest rate back to 11 percent, where it stands today.

In response to the tough financial circumstances that Russia has found itself in, it sees no choice but to squeeze as much oil out of its aging fields as it can. So far, it has succeeded to some extent. Russian oil production is expected to rise by a modest 70,000 barrels per day in 2015, averaging 10.75 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the course of this year. Output hit a post-Soviet record of 10.78 mb/d in October, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report. nickatr1

However, the upside to Russia’s oil production is limited. The Russian government needs revenue, so is not keen to cut taxes. The government is mulling a delay in the planned cut in export taxes, which, according to OPEC, could result in oil companies paying an additional $2 to $3 billion more in taxes. That could modestly cut into overall Russian oil production, perhaps pushing output down by 0.1 to 0.2 mb/d. In any case, Russia probably can’t boost output any further. OPEC predicts Russia’s oil production will remain flat through next year.

Globally, the competition between oil exporters won’t ease in the near term. There are still too many barrels of crude floating around. OPEC predicts that non-OPEC supply will contract by just 0.13 mb/d in 2016, a rather trivial amount considering the extreme cut backs in investment and drilling activity.

Despite the fact that OPEC officials have consistently put on a brave face in public, insisting that markets will balance relatively quickly, OPEC’s numbers tell a different story. The cartel sees U.S. shale contracting by just 100,000 barrels per day in 2016 from 2015, a volume that is nearly offset by several new projects beginning operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Which brings us back to Europe. Saudi Arabia could be playing a longer game, intensifying its market share strategy by encroaching on Russia’s traditional market in Europe. An increase in Saudi oil flowing to Europe threatens to undermine Russia’s principle market. In its November report, OPEC reported that the Urals discount to Brent “almost tripled in October amid plentiful supplies, sagging refinery margins and wide availability of alternative grades from the Middle East.”

Article Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudis-Planning-For-A-War-Of-Attrition-In-Europe-With-Russias-Oil-Industry.html

Fortum To Build More Wind Power In Sweden

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Fortum and Skellefteå Kraft, a Swedish energy company, will build the fourth phase of the Blaiken wind farm in Sweden consisting in total of 9 wind turbines.

Skellefteå Kraft will be responsible for the investment of six of the turbines, while Fortum will invest in three turbines. The value of Fortum’s investment is approximately EUR 10 million. The new wind turbines are expected to start production in 2017.

With its current 90 wind turbines, Blaiken Wind is one of the biggest onshore wind farms in Europe. Fortum owns 12 of these 90 turbines. Its annual production is estimated to be between 600 and 720 GWh, which is equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 150,000 households. The construction of the wind farm began in 2011.

Per Langer, Executive Vice President, Hydro power and technology division, Fortum, said that Fortum is very happy to continue the good cooperation with Skellefteå Kraft, which has long experience in wind power production.

The Forthcoming ‘Heart Of Asia’ Conference – Analysis

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By Dr. Sudhanshu Tripathi*

With a new government in Kabul and Islamabad getting pressured by the firm determination of America and also with the consensus of all the major and regional powers expected to participate in the forthcoming Conference, a common formula for containing and eventually eliminating terrorism from Afghanistan and also from the region can be satisfactorily found out which may finally pave the way for the global peace and security.

Introduction:

The forthcoming crucial regional conference on Afghanistan nicknamed as “Heart of Asia” ministerial meeting of twenty-six representatives of neighbouring countries is scheduled to commence on 7-8th December 2015 in Pakistan. It will be significant on various counts as it is going to be the first broad based conglomeration of all stakeholders of the area around Afghanistan, including India, China, Russia, Iran, UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, besides the remaining countries of the expanded neighbourhood after the recent withdrawal of the US’ forces fighting the Taliban terrorists and other Muslim fundamentalists for the long past, particularly since the macabre 9/11. The Conference will highlight the increasing importance of Asia in global affairs as the global geo-politics is said to moving towards East. Hence it will be of considerable importance with a view to contain terrorism not only in Afghanistan or the entire Asia but also in the whole world, besides addressing the core socio-economic issues pertaining to reconstruction of Afghanistan.

War against Terror:

This terror attack on the US soil had not only broken the myth of ‘invincible America’ but also had bewildered the US government, as the extremely perplexed President Bush Jr. decided to come down heavily on the accused Al-Qaida global terror network supposed to be hidden in the rugged mountainous terrains of Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan. He got launched the global war against terrorism under the US leadership, called Operation “Desert storm” and “Enduring freedom”, in his bid to eliminate the entire terror organisations in the world because it was, perhaps, the first realisation by the US that terrorists are not only the “enemy number one” of America but also the worst ever enemies of the whole humanity.

After initial success in this mission against terrorism, the resultant situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan gradually deteriorated due to the Taliban’s regaining their positions in almost entire Afghanistan in reaction to the continuing US led military operations against them and also due to the spurt of terror activities inside Pakistan leading towards its utter failure as a sovereign state. This became so because the Pakistan’s “ruling trio” the government, its secret agency I.S.I. and hardliner mullahs together had already been hobnobbing with several terror networks including the notorious Al-Qaida in its sole mission to export cross border terrorism in India and, for this purpose it (I.S.I.), it had harboured these terror organisations inside its territory with all kinds of monetary and logistical support. But these terrorists soon went out of control of the trio due to their inherent recourse to violence, fanaticism and extremism- thereby destabilising the Pakistani society and polity- in order to establish their supremacy in the country. Thus Pakistan failed in its effort ‘to both ends meet’ because it was unable to come out of the utter dilemma of ostensibly supporting the US led war against terrorism, on the one hand, and providing shelter to various terror groups on its soil, on the other. Obviously, this Pakistani dilemma enraged both of them and, consequently, they lost their faith in the Pakistan’s ruling establishment and both of them took their turns to become more and more violent.

Emboldened Terrorists & US Dilemma:

With the passage of time, the US’ led global war against terror converted into the sole US war against terror and that further aggravated the problem of the on-going terrorism in the entire region. The sudden rise of “Arab Spring” in the Arab World yet again emboldened the terrorists of all hues and shades who actively collaborated with the strong revolutionary groups in these countries and that heightened this menace in the whole world. As a reaction, the US became more and more arbitrary and ruthless in its approach relying heavily on the military solution, instead of taking recourse to political solution. As a part of its strategy, it deployed majority of its armed forces in Afghanistan to wipe out terrorism but it could not bore the desired result and it had to withdraw them last year.

In order to weaken the fighting Taliban, the US also tried to drive a wedge between them by courting with ‘good Taliban’ against the, obvious, bad one which, in fact, failed miserably and the questioned the very credibility of American intentions as regards its war against terror. Earlier, the US had faltered by turning blind eye over the proven records of Pakistan’s involvement in supporting and promoting terrorism in several acts of ghastly terror in India and also in Afghanistan. This too encouraged the merchants of terror, who are closely interlinked, to intensify their nefarious activities all across the world. Thus the US itself got entangled in the dilemma of its own creation and was compelled to pull back its forces from Afghanistan.

Conclusion:

Now, with a new government in Kabul, the hope is that Islamabad can be easily brought round by the firm determination of the US, and with the consensus of all the major and regional powers, expected to participate in the forthcoming Conference, a common formula for containing and eventually eliminating terrorism from Afghanistan and also from the region can be satisfactorily found out. Though there are certain hardships in this process due to persisting mutual bickering between many of the participating nations in the Conference like India-Pakistan, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Russia-China etc., but defeating a common enemy of humanity in the form of terrorism is now the primary objective and duty of all countries today. Hence a mutually agreeable solution against terror can be easily worked out by them in the interest of global peace and security. This will ultimately discourage terrorism and their perpetrators elsewhere in the world too, because ‘nothing is beyond human endeavour’.

*Dr. Sudhanshu Tripathi, Associate Professor, Political Science, M. D. P. G. College, Pratapgarh (UP)


Iran: Sweeping Arrests Target Officials Accused Of Corruption

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Six Sistan-Baluchistan government officials were arrested last week. ISNA reports that the deputy head of the Chabahar Free Zone and five others were arrested, and the Zahedan Prosecutor General Mohammad Marzieh said: “These individuals were arrested last Tuesday in coordination with the provincial capital court.”

Marzieh said the officials have been arrested on charges of “embezzlement, fraud and bribery” and added that the investigations are still ongoing.

The Zahedan prosecutor also reported that on Monday November 16, the head of the Foreign Nationals and Immigrant Affairs office in Iranshahr was arrested by the Revolutionary Guards.

He said the suspect is accused of receiving bribes to issue visas and permits to foreign nationals, adding that this investigation is also ongoing.

The Zahedan Prosecutor did not announce the names of the detainees.

Sistan-Baluchistan has borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan and is the point of entry for many Afghan immigrants to Iran.

Netherlands-Germany Soccer Match Cancelled Over ‘Serious Bomb Threat’

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“Serious plans for explosions” forced the evacuation of a stadium in Hannover, Germany, on Tuesday, November 17 night before a Netherlands-Germany soccer match, the police chief for Germany’s Lower Saxony region told Germany’s public broadcaster NDR, CNN reports.

Chief Volker Kluwe told NDR that authorities “had concrete intelligence that someone wanted to set off an explosive device inside the stadium.” The two tips forced officials to cancel the Netherlands-Germany match about 90 minutes before kickoff.

German media outlets Der Spiegel and Bild Zeitung reported the tips about the soccer match came from France’s intelligence agency. The French alerted German federal police to an “Iraqi sleeper cell” with plans to stage an attack.

The German national team tweeted that the game had been canceled, and “#DieMannschaft are under police protection and have been escorted to a safe place.”

Authorities asked spectators to go home and not stay outside the stadium in big crowds, Kluwe said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and at least three other top government officials had been expected to attend the match, Merkel’s office said.

The soccer stadium wasn’t the only place in Hannover where people were worried about their safety. Hannover police posted on their Facebook page Tuesday night that they were examining a suspicious item in the area of the central train station. After partially evacuating the station, police determined the item was a fake bomb left by a passenger who had fled, according to CNN affiliate ARD. Police say they are evaluating surveillance video to identify the passenger, ARD reported.

France and England went ahead with a friendly soccer match Tuesday night at London’s Wembley Stadium, which was lit up in blue, white and red to honor the visiting squad. Leading up to the game, London police increased their presence around the stadium and at several busy areas, such as transport hubs, across the British capital.

Steering Swiss Youth Away From Radicalization – Interview

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By Simon Bradley

Switzerland can do more to stop homegrown jihadists. Mosques need to counsel at-risk Muslims and the state needs more experience in learning how to mentor returning jihadists, according to a Swiss expert.

Miryam Eser Davolio is a researcher at Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) responsible for coordinating a new exploratory study into the radicalisation of Swiss young people .

Currently, some 70 cases of jihadi radicalisation are being investigated in Switzerland, with criminal proceedings underway in more than 20 cases.

On Friday, three coordinated teams of Islamic State gunmen and suicide bombers carried out attacks across Paris killing 129 civilians and injuring dozens. French President Francois Hollande called it an “act of war”.

In a SonntagsBlick interview last Sunday, Defence Minister Ueli Maurer said the Paris attacks had raised the risk levels for Switzerland. He said although there was no proof, a terrorist attack in Switzerland was “no longer totally abstract but imaginable”.

swissinfo.ch: In an interview with NZZ am Sonntag, Defence Minister Ueli Maurer said the greatest danger came from ‘lone wolf’ individuals living in Switzerland who support Islamic State ideals. How significant is this threat?

Miryam Eser Davolio: I think lone wolves need a certain support network to build up their action and people who agree with their ideas to convince them they are doing the right thing. In Switzerland – this is my personal impression after our interviews in the field – this happens on a very small scale.

The situation is very heterogeneous here, not like in France, where certain conspiracy theories and anger against exclusion or unemployment in the city suburbs exist.

There is also a problem of unemployed young Muslims in Switzerland, especially in cantons Geneva and Ticino, where many French and Italian people come to work and there is a lot of job competition. There we have seen certain sensitive situations for young Muslims. Things could become problematic but it all depends on whether these people have a chance to integrate.

swissinfo.ch: Switzerland has beefed up security measures to combat terrorism, strengthening the intelligence service and tightening up surveillance laws. Could individuals still slip through the net?

M.E.: I don’t think they could slip through, as I think there is very strong control of social media and the internet.

But in some cases the intelligence services are very busy, as the last TETRA report explained [the special task force put together by the Swiss Federal Office of Police to coordinate action against terrorism and jihad-related travel (TETRA)]. They mentioned one case where they had 25,000 pages of transcript of online communication for a single individual. When you know that this is eventually in foreign languages and you have to translate it, you can imagine the amount of work involved trying to follow these people.

swissinfo.ch: The federal police and cabinet are considering a possible travel ban to prevent and address jihadi radicalisation within Swiss borders. Is this an effective measure?

M.E.: I think it could help if someone wants to leave. It’s important to have a measure to hold them back. But it’s just one of many other measures we have to think about.

I think counselling is also very important for the individual and their families and friends. As we’ve seen in other parts of Europe, it’s important to support people who are in contact with youngsters so you can talk to them and work on their ideas.

swissinfo.ch: How effective is the collaboration between Swiss Muslim groups and individuals and the police to identify possible signs of radicalisation and to denounce suspects?

M.E.: It varies from canton to canton. In Zurich, they have someone with a bridge-building role who is in contact with various Muslim communities. In St Gallen, they have a round-table for religions, which is in contact with imams and Muslim groups. In St Gallen, seven imams have done further education on integration, living in Switzerland and radicalisation.

In Geneva, they collaborate well and do quite a lot of integration work. They were shocked by this recent news [in August] alleging that two youngsters were radicalised at the Geneva Mosque [in Petit-Saconnex] and left for Syria.

swissinfo.ch: The Swiss police chief Nicoletta della Valle says the idea people are being radicalised in Swiss-based mosques or by Swiss Muslim organisations is a ‘cliché’. So where is it happening?

M.E.: We saw from federal intelligence data that most people were radicalised via friends and the internet. The mosques are rather preventive institutions. People who go there with extreme ideas are confronted and get their ideas corrected. They are told they shouldn’t listen to internet propaganda, for example.

Muslim organisations have quite an important preventative role but they are often afraid when people are radicalised. They close their doors and don’t want a negative image in public and so they give up the chance to influence these people. They could do more but they would need more support to legitimatise the counselling of persons at risk of being radicalised. Their preventative role needs to become more officialised.

swissinfo.ch: Several countries have set up de-radicalisation programmes for returning jihadis. In February a TETRA report said too little was being done to de-radicalise jihadists coming back to Switzerland, and that such programmes were difficult and time-consuming. What is Switzerland doing in this area?

M.E.: Nothing exists right now. It’s important to have mentors or people who can get in touch with young people and work on the attitude of returnees and also before people leave who are becoming radicalised.

One obstacle to this is the lack of experience on this question. People need to go abroad to Germany, Britain, Denmark or Norway to learn how to work with these individuals.

The overall problem in Switzerland is small but there are returnees. The question is what we should do with them to bring them back into society. If they have to go to prison, they need to work with them on that. It’s a very specific topic. You need to be sure they are really disengaging.

swissinfo.ch: What are the other strengths and weaknesses of Switzerland’s anti-jihadi strategy?

M.E.: One of the weak points is that Islamophobia is not addressed. It’s a very important question. In Germany they have addressed this, as when you have people who are afraid of Muslims and against them this enhances the possibility that Islamic State propaganda can gain support.

They build up their propaganda using the theory that Muslims are stigmatised, excluded and humiliated here in the West. If this really happens via Islamophobia and certain political positions then we are simply accentuating polarisation and sowing the seeds for further growing radicalisation.

Swiss jihadis

In its May annual report the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service said radicalised jihadists remained the biggest threat to Swiss national security even though the country was not a priority target for potential terrorists.

Currently, some 70 cases of jihadi radicalisation are being investigated in Switzerland, with criminal proceedings underway in more than 20 cases. As of October, Swiss intelligence had recorded 40 confirmed cases of jihad-motivated travel (+10 since February). Seven others have left conflict zones and some have returned to Switzerland. In addition, 31 other suspected jihadis are being monitored.

The Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) study into the radicalisation of Swiss youngsters looked at 66 cases recorded between 2001 and July 2015. The team of 11 researchers found that 16 out of 66 cases were aged below 25. Most were aged 23-35. Only three women were reported, below European averages of 10%.

The majority of cases were born Muslims from former Yugoslavia and Somalia. Twelve were recently converted, half of Swiss origin. Twenty cases were radicalised via the internet, 13 claimed to have been influenced by war experiences, particularly in the Balkans, while 13 pointed to Salafist propaganda.

Lithuania Is Not Ready To Counter Terrorism – OpEd

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Following the tragic terrorist attacks in Paris on November 13, Lithuania’s Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevičius is summoning Minister of the Interior Saulius Skvernelis and State Security Department Darius Jauniškis for an urgent meeting on security.

According to Prime Minister Butkevičius, the meeting will focus on ways to contribute to international efforts against terrorism, as well as measures to ensure domestic security, DELFI informed. The question arises about the country’s readiness to cope with a similar situation.

It’s generally known that the National security strategy of the Republic of Lithuania is noting international terrorism as one of the factors forming Lithuania‘s security policy agenda. Yet, it is believed that this threat to Lithuania is more in the realm of hypothetical.

The Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on its website that, “the current internal environment and historical experience do not create conditions for terrorist groups to be formed.” In light of recent events I would say it is a very controversial statement. Even more – dangerously delusional.

Though Lithuania is actively participating in international counter-terrorism frameworks, this activity hasn’t made our country’s security stronger. After the tragic terrorist attacks in Paris, Lithuanians feel fear and are not sure about the government’s ability to defend them at home.

It seems as if our authorities more often rely on outside help, instead of taking separate steps to ensure domestic security. It is high time to develop our own anti-terrorist strategy.

Understandably, our government faces a very difficult choice: to continue strengthening our armed forces, engage more and more foreign troops to counter the threat from the East or switch to another activity – to enhance efforts against terrorism. For at least the past two years the Baltic States have feared an enemy with trained troops, fighters and tanks, but these latest terrorist attacks show another even more real threat – terrorism.

According to Lithuania’s National Defence Minister Juozas Olekas, Lithuania at the moment would be ready to accept 6,000-8,000 NATO troops without any major logistical issues. If even not taking into account the fact that according to Article 137 of the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania, “there may not be any weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases on the territory of the Republic of Lithuania”, I would like to see that common sense has prevailed.

In other words, we have made every effort to repel a possible military attack, but have done nothing to counter terrorism. Thus, Lithuanian authorities are acting illogically, and not properly prioritizing its activities.

*Adomas Abromaitis, a Lithuanian expatriate living in the United Kingdom

Ron Paul Says US Troops Will Come Home ‘Because We’re Flat-Out Broke’– OpEd

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It may seem as if nothing can restrain the United States government’s intervention overseas. But, Ron Paul says economic conditions will impose a limit and that that means the days of expansive US military intervention are numbered.

The former presidential candidate and US House of Representatives member drew applause at a Ludwig von Mises Institute event in Phoenix, Arizona on November 7 when he predicted that US troops will come home because the government is “flat-out broke.”

Paul argues in the speech that “we’re living at a time where the system is going to come unglued,” with America in the middle of a “complete collapse” that began in 2007-08. While Paul observes that the “prevailing attitude” is that the US government can just continue to print and spend money without restraint, he concludes that this Keynesian approach will fail. That failure, predicts Paul, will be accompanied by a major change in foreign policy:

We’re seeing the total failure and the coming ungluing of the Keynesian model, as well as our foreign policy. Our foreign policy is doomed to fail. We will come home. Let me tell you, we will come home. But, it won’t be because we all of the sudden, you know, have a few more people giving talks about bringing the troops home. We’re going to come home because we’re flat-out broke.

Watch Paul’s complete speech here:

Paul is the chairman and founder of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

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