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Switzerland: Foreign Minister ‘Shy Statesman’ Burkhalter To Step Down

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The decision of Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter to step down at the end of October has surprised many in Switzerland – including the Swiss press. Assessments of his performance are divided.

“Didier Burkhalter, the lonely diplomat,” declared the Neue Zürcher Zeitung on Thursday, the day after the cabinet minister announced his resignation. “It’s as if this keen football fan played in two leagues simultaneously. In the Premier League, he was the diplomatic star, who was celebrated for his presidency of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 2014 and whom the press imagined as possible successor to Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations.”

Then there was the second division player, who “suffered the war of the trenches in the cabinet, the repeated shots from the press and opposition from his own party”, the paper added.

Burkhalter, 57, announced on Wednesday that he would leave his cabinet post at the end of October as it was time to “write a new page in his life”. He dismissed speculation that he was disappointed with the government or frustrated by increasing criticism in parliament over the handling of Swiss relations with the European Union.

European factors

Many papers, however, said Switzerland’s complicated relations with the EU was a key reason for his departure.

“Despite his eternal optimism, he was the only one to believe in an institutional agreement [with the EU],” said the Aargauer Zeitung. “He is leaving without being able to explain to the wider public the need for this agreement with the EU.”

The top diplomat has been keen to put EU ties on a new footing via a treaty formalising relations now based on numerous bilateral economic accords. However, the idea has run into opposition from critics, especially from the right wing.

Leaving office suddenly is not a very Swiss way of doing things, said French-speaking daily Le Temps, but it allowed Burkhalter to rid himself of this “millstone around his neck which had become heavy and frustrating”.

Le Temps added that Burkhalter had also “never managed to get over” the February 9, 2014 anti-immigration vote. Relations with Brussels suffered a serious setback when 50.3% of voters approved immigration curbs, temporarily blocking negotiations on a series of bilateral accords.

‘Mr Normal’

On other issues, such as defending so-called International Geneva, Burkhalter was more successful, the papers generally agreed.

“Not only did Geneva rediscover its appeal as a base for negotiating hot global topics, but Burkhalter also made sure the federal authorities gave specific support to major ongoing projects like the costly renovation of the UN Palais des Nations building,” wrote the Tribune de Genève.

Praise also came from the L’Express and L’Impartial papers, from Burkhalter’s home city Neuchâtel, which wrote that as a cabinet member since 2009 Burkhalter had always preferred the “team game rather than an audacious solo run under the eyes of the watching cameras”.

The Fribourg daily La Liberté also welcomed his collegial approach to politics, while reminding of his constant desire to remain “Mr Normal”.

“This very Swiss normality was his strength and his weakness,” it said.

In 2014, a photo of Burkhalter posted by Le Temps journalist Serge Jubin on facebook went viral. It showed the foreign minister (then honorary president) quietly tapping away on his mobile while waiting for a train from Neuchâtel station, surrounded by commuters – but no bodyguards.

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‘Didier who?’

Others were more scathing of the politician from the centre-right Radical Party.

“Didier who?” wrote the Blick tabloid. “Even after years Burkhalter didn’t seem to have really entered into his role … internationally he did a good job. But he didn’t manage to explain his foreign policy in Switzerland. He was sidelined in the cabinet as he was fighting in favour of an institutional agreement with the EU that nobody wants.”

The Basler Zeitung described him as a “shy statesman”.

“He has been in politics for 30 years…but he doesn’t like fighting for a cause and doesn’t like explaining the same things 100 times,” wrote Der Bund in Bern.

The Tribune de Genève echoed this. “Didier Burkhalter left as he governed: with energy, class and honesty but without great charisma or stature or convincing arguments.”

Next steps

Burkhalter is due to leave his foreign minister job at the end of October. On Thursday, following the announcement, his centre-right Radical Party announced it would open the nomination process, which will close in early August. Parliament will then elect his successor in the multi-party cabinet on 20 September.

According to an unwritten Swiss rule, the replacement should be a French- or Italian-speaker to ensure equal representation between the language regions in the seven-member cabinet.

It is widely thought that his centre-right Radical Party will be able to keep two seats beside the two members each of the leftwing Social Democrats and the rightwing Swiss People’s Party as well as one seat for the centrist Christian Democrats. However, observers do not exclude a reshuffle of cabinet portfolios.


Jerusalem Tower Younger Than Thought

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Gihon Spring, just downhill from the ancient city of Jerusalem, was crucial to the survival of its inhabitants, and archaeologists had uncovered the remains of a massive stone tower built to guard this vital water supply. Based on pottery and other regional findings, the archaeologists had originally assigned it a date of 1,700 BCE. But new research conducted at the Weizmann Institute of Science provides conclusive evidence that the stones at the base of the tower were laid nearly 1,000 years later. Among other things, the new results highlight the contribution of advanced scientific dating methods to understanding the history of the region.

Dr. Elisabetta Boaretto, Head of the Weizmann Institute of Science’s D-REAMS Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory and track leader within the Max Planck-Weizmann Center for Integrative Archaeology and Anthropology, had the opportunity to date the tower as part of her ongoing cooperative research projects with the Israel Antiquity Authority (IAA). Since 2012, Dr. Joe Uziel and Nahshon Szanton of the IAA, in continuing the excavations around the tower, have discovered that the base of the tower was not built on bedrock.

“The boulders in the tower’s base, in and of themselves,” said Boaretto, “do not yield any information other than the fact that whoever placed them there had the ability to maneuver such heavy stones. But underneath the boulders, the soil exhibits the layers typical of archaeological strata, and these can reveal the latest date that the site was occupied before the tower was built.”

The unique and methodical approach of the D-REAMS lab team begins by planning and executing the field sampling and excavation from the beginning – together with the site archaeologists. “Getting one’s hands dirty is all part of building a reliable chronology,” said Boaretto. During field work conducted with the archaeologists and later in her laboratory with postdoctoral fellow Dr. Johanna Regev, Boaretto identified several clearly-delineated strata. From these, they carefully collected remains of charcoal, seeds and bones – organic matter that can be definitively dated through radiocarbon dating.

The first dating was conducted on mid-to-lower levels of sediment, and these dates indeed agreed with those originally proposed. “But there was another half-meter of sediment between the material we had dated and the large cornerstone,” said Boaretto. “At a glance, we thought this might represent another few hundred years before the stone was placed.” The presence of separate, sequential layers, which they identified using microarchaeological tools and radiocarbon dating, enabled the researchers to attach dates to the strata just below the tower.

The radiocarbon dating method is based on counting the radioactive 14C atoms in a sample. These carbon atoms are found in all living things in a small, but stable ratio to that of regular carbon, and they begin to decay at a known rate after death. At the Weizmann Institute of Science, the count of 14C atoms in a sample is performed with an accelerator, so it can return highly accurate results on something as small as a seed.

The date revealed by this radiocarbon dating was sometime around 800-900 BCE. That is nearly 1,000 years later than thought, and it moves the building of the tower to another historical period entirely, from the Middle Bronze Age to the Iron Age.

To complete the study, Boaretto and her team asked whether any explanation could allow the tower to have been built earlier – repairs, for example – but the presence of the large boulders sitting above layers of earth containing the remains of everyday activities would appear to be fairly conclusive evidence that the later date is the correct one. Boaretto: “The conclusive, scientific dating of this massive tower, placing it in a later era than was presumed, will have repercussions for other attempts to date construction and occupation in ancient Jerusalem.”

Afghan Commando Wounds Fires On US Troops, Wounds Seven Troops

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(RFE/RL) — A member of an elite Afghan commando unit opened fire on U.S.-led coalition troops at an Afghan base in the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif, wounding seven U.S. service personnel and at least one Afghan soldier, military officials say.

An Afghan Army spokesman on June 17 said the rogue soldier was killed in an ensuing shoot-out, the second so-called insider attack on U.S. forces in the past week.

On June 11, three U.S. soldiers were killed and one was wounded in an insider attack at a base in Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan.

According to NATO’s Resolute Support website, the June 17 attack took place at Camp Shaheen, the headquarters of the Afghan Army’s 209th corps.

A German-led group of international advisers is also based at Camp Shaheen. A spokeswoman for the German forces said that “according to what we know right now, no Germans were affected.”

A spokesman for the Taliban militant group praised the attack but did not claim responsibility.

The increase in insider attacks in recent months has worried coalition officials. It is not always clear if the attackers are rogue members of the Afghan forces or are infiltrators wearing Afghan Army uniforms.

Camp Shaheen was the site of a major attack by Taliban militants in April, killing more than 130 Afghan Army personnel.

So far this year, six U.S. troops have been killed by hostile fire in Afghanistan. Since 2001, more than 2,000 American troops have been killed in combat and noncombat roles in the country.

The latest attack comes at a time when the Pentagon is planning to send almost 4,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, hoping to break a stalemate in the 16-year war, the Associated Press reported, citing an unidentified official.

AP said the decision could be announced as early as the upcoming week.

The bulk of the extra forces will train and advise Afghan troops, the official said, while a smaller number would be assigned to counterterror operations against the Taliban and Islamic State (IS) extremists.

Asked about the report, a Pentagon spokesman said, “No decisions have been made.”

U.S.-led forces invaded Afghanistan at the end of 2001 to oust the Taliban government, which was accused of sheltering Al-Qaeda militants blamed for carrying out the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States.

Since peaking at a force of about 100,000 troops, some 8,400 U.S. service members remain in Afghanistan after most NATO forces pulled out in 2014. About 5,000 non-U.S. NATO forces are still in the country.

Bodies Of Missing USS Fitzgerald Sailors Found

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A number of US sailors’ remains that were missing from the collision between USS Fitzgerald (DDG 62) and a merchant ship have been found, according to the US Navy.

As reported, the USS Fitzgerald was involved in a collision with a merchant vessel at approximately early Satureday while operating about 56 nautical miles southwest of Yokosuka, Japan. There were seven sailors unaccounted for in the accident.

As search and rescue crews gained access to the spaces that were damaged during the collision and the missing sailors were located in the flooded berthing compartments. They are currently being transferred to Naval Hospital Yokosuka where they will be identified.

“The families are being notified and being provided the support they need during this difficult time. The names of the sailors will be released after all notifications are made,” the Navy said.

Does India Have Strategy For Its Bankruptcy Policy? – OpEd

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It is often said that industries may become sick but the industrialists owning them rarely become sick. While several sick industrial units and commercial establishments default on the loan and interest repayment and owe several thousands of crores of rupees to the banks and other financial institutions , the directors of most of such units lead an affluent life with high salaries and perks, benefits and privileges. Obviously, the sickness of the industries are not reflected on the owners of the units in most cases.

In the past, the government and the banks have been dealing with these sick units with soft gloves, providing them interest waivers, additional loan and revised repayment schedules. Still, in many cases, their financial conditions have not improved and the exposure of the banks to these units have only increased causing more discomfort to the banks.

The demand of farming community

Such scenario has caused heartburn among the people in the vulnerable sections of society such as farmers and fishermen who also default in payment of loans and interests but are harassed by the lending institutions that demand repayment. This scenario explains the recent demand for waiving of farmers’ loans all over India by the farming community. The farmers ask that when huge corporate loans and interest are waived by the banks with the so called objective of reviving these corporate entities, why such “courtesies” could not be applied to the vulnerable farming community too.
On the face of it, this appears to be a legitimate question though the economic pundits will not agree.

Does Modi government have a strategy?

The present decision of the Modi government to implement Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC ) has been received with much appreciation all over India. President of India had approved an ordinance amending the Banking Regulation Act, 1949, giving more powers to Reserve Bank of India in dealing with the non performing assets (NPA) , which indicate the resolve of the Modi government to sort out the NPA problem once for all.

The extent of the prevailing NPA can be gauged from the fact that around Rs. 10 lakh crore of loans are either non performing or stressed. This is roughly 12% of the total loan extended by the banks and other financing institutions. It is reported that Reserve Bank of India has shortlisted 12 accounts (defaulting companies) each more than Rs. 5000 crore, for resolving via Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. 60% of the amount has already been recognized as NPAs. Reserve Bank of India is reported to be planning to announce 6 more bankrupt companies soon.

Now, the million dollar question is what will the banks do with these large sick companies after announcing them as bankrupt companies ? In any case, most of these companies are not in a position to repay their debts in the present circumstances for whatever reasons.

Now, that the Modi government has taken the plunge and has implemented the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code , one is not sure what is up in it’s sleeve and one wonders whether Modi government has any particular strategy in dealing with the defaulting and sick companies.

Can bankruptcy law be implemented without affecting growth?

Will the decision to declare the companies as bankrupt result in their being closed and ceasing operations? This would create several other problems like loss of employment, loss of production and loss of invested resources apart from the loss of investment to thousands of small level equity holders, who may have invested their life long savings and post retirement benefits, in these companies.

Obviously, such issues have forced the governments in the past not to rock the boat too hard when dealing with the defaulting corporate bodies.

The pragmatic method should be to find a way to enforce the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code without leading to closure of the units. Is it possible in the present situation is the question.

Of course, many of these defaulting companies have huge assets such as land , plant and machinery and infrastructure. The banks may be able to monetize them straightaway to recover part of their loan but this would be a counter productive solution ,that will virtually destroy the units with consequent several problems for the country like loss of employment etc.

While the bankruptcy code will alleviate many of the financial obligations of the defaulting companies, still they may not be enough to revive the companies without additional fund flow and investment. The question is who will invest in such sick companies , some of which may be facing fundamental issues like product or technology obsolescence, faulty basic designs etc.

Of course, by enforcing the bankruptcy code, the banks may try to persuade the creditors to take over the company by converting the debt into equity. But, in many cases, the creditors may not have the expertise or more investment capability to bring about revival of the units.

Alternately, the banks may have to persist with the existing management and promoters and provide them more sops. This will make the banks and financial institutions a laughing stock.

Does Modi government have a forward plan?

The post bankruptcy scenario for the individual corporate unit is hazy and uncertain. This possibility makes one suspect whether the Modi government is moving with it’s much needed bankruptcy policy without a forward plan. If it has one, it has not so far revealed it to the country men in a convincing manner.

One sensitive question

Finally, one sensitive question that Modi government would face is whether the inefficient or dishonest promoters of the sick companies who have brought the companies into such sorry state of affairs would be allowed to go scot-free, without being punished by the bankruptcy law.

What Religious Scriptures Can Teach About Business Management – OpEd

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I am an Indian and an advantage of that is seeing multiple faiths and religions in close proximity. But, the world of our religions often looks very far from the world of our business. Many perceive business to be pragmatic and religions to be emotional et al.; and that the two do not really intersect like a Venn-diagram. But the texts of various religions actually have a lot of pragmatism, which has a lot to teach about modern business management.

The Process Is Important, Not Just The Performance

Measure the journey itself, not just the outcome! The Hindu scripture Bhagwad Gita stresses a focus on karma, i.e. the work itself, rather than only the outcome. Even Buddhism espouses a focus on the present, ahead of the future. Ensure the most of what is there right now, not just what can happen. As companies measure the ultimate profit margins and return on equity, it is important to measure the current process itself. A business example is when companies track not just margins, but also periodic operations metrics like productivity, interactions, pitches, collections, etc. It would also help identify early warning signals for variances that could eventually impact the ultimate profits. Without ensuring the means to the end, the end itself would never be realised anyway. Focusing on the ultimate goal is one thing, but taking the attention away from the process itself would spell trouble.

Sell The Bigger Vision, But Move In Smaller Steps

Show the larger picture, but push the change in small steps! Moses showed the bigger vision of the Promised Land to the Jews in Egypt but requested the Pharaoh with smaller nudges to free his people. While the big vision helps drum support for the plan as it gives clarity of purpose, people are often resisting radical and drastic changes. Hence, change should be pushed in small measurable steps, as it smoothens this resistance and moves the task to the bigger vision. This also includes communicating the plan properly so that everyone is on the same page. That means the leader also has to be great storyteller if he has to sell his big vision to a heterogeneously large group. Jesus Christ scored on this front, through his famed approach of speaking in parables to build context for his listeners. A business example is India’s recent demonetization, where the bigger vision of fighting corruption was shown, although one may argue whether the change was done in smaller steps or in one radical “band-aid” move?

Leaders Have To Be In The Cockpit, Not Just In The Control Tower

Both Moses and Prophet Muhammad teach an important leadership lesson – when the going gets tough, the leaders have to get going. Whether it was the Prophet leading the Muslims to fight against the Meccan attackers at Badr or Uhud, or Moses leading the Jews to make the great crossing to the Promised Land, in both cases the leaders themselves rolled up their sleeves and got their hands dirty instead of just giving directions from a safe haven. When times are tough, the leader leads by actually doing the task himself, not just by giving directions. Examples abound even outside business or religions; be it of the US President flying into the mission himself in the movie Independence Day, or of the Indian cricket captain coming out to bat at a tricky juncture in the World Cup final match. Such leaders are often more admired, unlike CEOs of bankrupt Indian companies who may leave for foreign shores using legal loopholes, while leaving their creditors and employees stuck in a rut at home.

Be Fearless When Trying Something New

The Guru Granth Sahib is full of examples of being fearless against all the odds, especially when the odds look mighty. It was always safer to remain in the comfort zone rather than trying the unconventional, but fighting against such odds is a sheer test of fearlessness. Sikhism taught us there are times when it better to die while standing straight, rather than survive by crawling on one’s knees. In the business world too, there are often tricky situations wherein numerous naysayers will dissuade you from trying unconventional tactics, even if it’s apparent that conventional solutions will fail. How does the business remain fearless when pushing for such unconventional change against all the odds? Cricket also reminds us of two examples, when the crucial last overs in the T-20 World Cup and Hero Cup finals were given to new bowler Sharma and part-time bowler Tendulkar, instead of the conventional options.

Keep The Promise

Jesus Christ taught us to keep our word! It is amazing how in today’s competitive business world where most products are getting commoditized very quickly, often it is the un-adherence of basic quality or service standards that causes maximum client attrition. After all, quality and service that is promised is something everyone takes for granted. But it is actually ending up as the main differentiator, as many companies actually do not deliver on what they promised. Some of India’s biggest companies rank pathetically low on this. If a company cannot deliver what it promised, it will always face the leaking bucket syndrome, i.e. always need to replenish lost customers.

Do Not Fall In Love With Your Decisions

One has to be adaptable, rather than get attached! The Gita makes this business-type observation, be adaptable to changing situations rather than be fixated on what you originally thought. The business environment is constantly changing be it due to systemic or external factors, and one needs to change along with it to avoid becoming irrelevant. Attachment is good as it creates emotional bonds, but too much attachment can prove detrimental since it creates a barrier to change. A business example is exploring new options, ideas and innovations, which may help it maintain and grow its market share in a competitive market; even if it means getting out of the comfort zone of its earlier strategies. But at the same time, it is critical to evaluate the new ideas deeply before rushing to change just because of the heck of changing. To put it in a business perspective, it means trying every new business strategy, or idea on the board can just end up burning the invested capital while yielding minimal aggregate returns. It may be better to invest a bit extra time to evaluate and pick the relevant strategy, and then change!

Involve Multiple Views In Decisions

A consultative approach to decisions was advocated by the Prophet, and this is important for business too. Involving the community is an oft used approach in Judaism as well. Everyone has some specialised knowledge or skills, which others can gain from. It is not possible for one to know everything. The best solution is to pool together all the knowledge and skills from different specialists so that the best decision can be taken. If decisions are based on half-knowledge or on the basis of people not be fully conversant with that topic, then the task is bound to fail. A business example is when a plan fails as the CEO felt he did not need the advice from those lower in the ranks, even if they are specialists of their domains. However, a CEO who pools ideas from relevant stakeholders may win.

People Manager First, Product Manager Later

Business managers have to manage people really well, just like Moses did during the journey to the Promised Land. Managing people includes your successors who will succeed to carry on the task, involving the more experienced older colleagues in the decision process, and tactfully isolating trouble-makers so that they cannot negatively affect the others. One can always hire good product managers to ensure quality standards, but handling people is critical across all levels, in whichever situation, for whatever objective. A succession plan is an imperative, be it for the task at hand when you are absent, or for the company as a whole. Valuing the experience of senior peers has its advantages, as they have seen more cycles than you and can offer more insights and anecdotes on what can work or not. Trouble-makers can bring a revolution in the ranks if left as they are. Hence one has to either address their concerns if genuine or diplomatically remove their influence from the group. All these test people skills immensely.

No One Likes Arrogance

Jesus Christ and Guru Nanak both showed the virtue of being humble and compassionate, even to one’s hardest critics. This includes keeping up one’s integrity and values, something the Holy Quran also espouses. In the world of business, many CEOs act arrogant if they have achieved to crack their markets while many remain humble. How many people would like to work for either CEO? It does not mean the arrogant one is wrong, but they may find it hard to get the loyalty of their people; as those people only support the performance, not the personality. Since performance can be temporary, so can the support. A business example is when young CEOs of Indian start-ups act with utter arrogance on public forums.

Knee-Jerk Reactions Are Best Avoided

As per the Gita, knee-jerk reactions are often done without proper reasoning and clarity, and the ensuing confusions only fan the smoke further instead of helping solve the issue. A constantly changing environment means sudden situations that may not be palatable! The result – we often resort to knee jerk reactions that cause us more harm. A business example is firing a manager who reached low sales targets for few months, instead of addressing business issues that may have genuinely impacted his performance. Such a hire and fire attitude only erodes the business’s brand in the market and ensures even high potential prospect employees refrain from joining. It is better to evaluate and reason out the situation with proper focus, as that would yield better results.

In conclusion, our religious scriptures are full of many more lessons that can be relevant in the context of modern-day business management. While many of the examples mentioned herein may sound clichés, it is worth noting that there is actually not much difference between what our religions teach us and what management teaches us. There may be a Venn-diagram between them, after all!

Originally published in Youth Ki Awaaz

Pew Study Minimalizes Christian Persecution – OpEd

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Most studies that measure attacks on religion speak about religious persecution. A Pew Research Center article released June 9, based on a Pew study that was published in April, takes a different tack: it provides data on religious groups that have been “harassed or intimidated.”

It does not address the severity or frequency of the harassment, and therefore “the results should not be interpreted as gauging which religious group faces the most harassment or persecution around the world.”

This is an honest description of the study’s goal. But the decision to skirt which religious groups are the most persecuted—and to eschew an account of who is doing the persecution—is a serious omission. It would be like doing a report on crime by focusing on misdemeanors to the neglect of felonies.

The study also fails to define with any precision what it means by “social hostilities”; it cites them as an index of harassment. Other studies do a better job on the subject of religious victimization.

The 2016 Annual Report issued by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom names nine nations as the most egregious violators of religious liberty in the world: they “torture or use cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment.” Christians are persecuted in all of them.

Five of the persecuting nations are run by Muslims (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan); two are Communist dictatorships (China and North Korea); one is Buddhist run (Burma); and one is a secular tyranny (Eritrea).

We know from many studies of religious persecution that there are some undeniable facts. Here are three of them:

  • There is no country in the world run by Christians that persecutes people of faith.
  • There is no religious group more persecuted than Christians.
  • There is no religious group that persecutes people of faith more than Muslims.

Any study that does not punctuate these facts is minimalizing Christian persecution; it also minimalizes the role played by the victimizers, namely, Muslims and Communists.

The headline to the recent Pew article on the study is also problematic: “Christians Faced Widespread Harassment in 2015, but Mostly in Christian-Majority Countries.”

It is misleading to say that Christians are harassed in mostly Christian-majority nations. It suggests that Christians are persecuting Christians, which is simply not true. Furthermore, the Pew study cites only two nations to back up its claim, Nicaragua and Eritrea. They are poor choices.

Nicaragua is not run by Christians—it is run by atheist left-wing dictators. Eritrea is not run by Christians either. Some studies say the nation is half Muslim and half Christian, while others say it is majority  Muslim. No matter, it is not Christians who are doing the persecution.

The headline about Christians being harassed in mostly Christian-majority nations looks even more flatulent when we consider an analogy with South Africa. When it was a dictatorship, the South African rulers  were white and the persecuted were black. Would it not be misleading to say that blacks were harassed in a black-majority nation?

Open Doors, a Christian entity, has done great work on this subject, though it is curiously not cited as a resource by Pew (it does cite the ADL). This is regrettable given the comprehensiveness of its reporting.  Interestingly, it raised the issue about Christians being victimized in Christian-majority nations, providing an authoritative response.

Q: “Some of these countries have large Christian populations, yet they remain on the list. Why is that?”

A: “There are countries on the list which have a rather large Christian population and remain on the list for numerous reasons. In countries like Columbia, Christians face persecution from rebel groups in certain parts of the country. While non-Christians also experience violence from these groups, Christian leaders are specifically targeted because many people have left the rebel groups after coming to Christ. The church is often seen as a threat by these groups because of this and is often attacked.”

There are other anomalies that should be considered. For example, there are nations such as Kenya which have a large Christian majority, yet in those areas that are dominated by Islam, they are persecuted.

Finally, a word about harassment. Many Catholics, as well as others, regard the Obama administration’s HHS mandate forcing Catholic non-profits to pay for abortion-inducing drugs in their healthcare plans as a classic example of government harassment of a religious group. There is no evidence that Pew does.

We have long praised the Pew Research Center for its work. This study did not meet its usual standard of excellence.

Trump Has Cards Up Sleeves To Avoid Impeachment – OpEd

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By Jonathan Power*

“The best lack all conviction”, wrote the Irish poet, William Yeats, “while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” Is this not true of America today?

Some of the “best” are working to bring down President Donald Trump, yet are they ready to cut to the chase? He has cards up his sleeve. He came to power partly because he won the support of working class and lower middle class whites who were prepared to vote against their economic interest for the sake of the nationalism that Trump espoused. Neither Keir Hardie nor Franklin Roosevelt nor Bernie Sanders were their leader. It was Trump.

I don’t find it difficult to imagine how Trump could play the nationalist card that would rally his electorate. The “best” would be against this, but how many would be convinced enough to go out on the street, French style, and demand Congress impeach him? I doubt if the Harvard professors would or journalists from the New York Times, business men, school teachers, doctors, civil servants or airline pilots.

Of course, as with the civil rights movement and the anti-Vietnam War protests, there would be students in the front row. Then there would be clergy, a few professors from the University of Wisconsin, novelists, Senator Sanders and at most 50 members of Congress. The police would easily face them down and disperse them.

“Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel”, said Samuel Johnson. So is extreme confrontation, or even war. What follows is not my scenario. It is that of Philip Gordon, writing in the current issue of the respected “Foreign Affairs”. He was Barack Obama’s Special Assistant for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf regions. Those who have dormant passionate intensity in their bones should read it and act now before it is too late. Events can move fast. “A week is a long time in politics”, said the former British prime minister, Harold Wilson.

Trump could begin his diversionary tactics with Iran, his arch-enemy during the campaign. Gordon says, let’s suppose that a dozen Americans are killed in an attack in Iraq by an Iranian-supported militia. Two days later, Trump imposes further sanctions on Iran, effectively torpedoing the de-nuclearisation agreement negotiated by Obama. Iran continues to test its missiles. It steps up its support for the Syrian government. Later in the year, the situation having deteriorated further, Iran announces it will resume prohibited nuclear activities, including testing advanced centrifuges and expanding its stockpile of low-enrich uranium.

Frustrated by continued Iranian support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Pentagon steps up patrols in the Strait of Hormuz and loosens the rules of engagement for U.S. forces. When an Iranian patrol boat aggressively approaches a U.S. cruiser, the ship fires and kills 25 Iranians. Revenge is swift and 6 more American soldiers in Iraq are killed. In return Trump authorises a cruise missile attack on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Nationalist fervour increases in Iran, and also in America. Iran lets its nuclear scientists off the leash. Next, U.S. bombers destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. A good chunk of the U.S. electorate cheers him on. Anti-Trump congressmen feel that they couldn’t continue with their effort to impeach him while America was in such a serious situation.

Experts later called the confrontation with China the most dangerous one since the Cuban Missile Crisis that almost erupted into nuclear war. The president’s advisor, Steve Bannon, said at the beginning of the Administration: “We’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, pushed by Trump, warns that China’s access to the islands there “is not going to be allowed”. At the same time North Korea tests another long-range missile capable of reaching the western sea-board of the US. Trump demands that China pressure North Korea to stop the provocation or it would go to war with the North.

China is worried about the mass of refugees that would pour into China if the regime collapsed. Also it doesn’t want U.S.-backed troops to advance to its border with the North. It refuses Trump. Trump then says the days of placating China are over. Sanctions are imposed. President Xi Jinping feels he has to retaliate. He imposes a 45% tariff on imports and sells $100 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Next follows an incident in the South China Sea, a clash between American and Chinese naval boats. Each side’s carriers are rushed to the region. There is a military stand-off that looks like stretching into the distant future. U.S.-China relations are in ruins. But Trump is off the hook for the rest of his term.

During the next election? Perhaps war with North Korea. [IDN-INPS – 13 June 2017]

*Note: For 17 years Jonathan Power was a foreign affairs columnist for the International Herald Tribune. He has forwarded this and his previous Viewpoints for publication in IDN-INPS. Copyright: Jonathan Power.


Why Is UK Mediating The Gulf Dispute? – OpEd

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By Samantha Maloof*

The following statement was made in Washington in response to the decision by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt to cut ties with Qatar, which they accuse of funding terrorism: “Our expectation is that these countries will immediately take steps to de-escalate the situation and put forth a good faith effort to resolve their grievances they have with each other.”

This is the kind of nuanced, even-handed statement one would expect to hear from the president of a country that is an ally to all parties and shares a strategic interest in ensuring the peaceful resolution of the situation. However, these were not the words of the US president, but of Rex Tillerson, the Secretary of State. Normally, pronouncements made by the State Department and those made by the president on an issue like this would be interchangeable.

But in the “new normal” of the Trump administration, the president decided to undercut Tillerson’s evenhanded statement, blurting out support for the Saudis’ move and accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism on Twitter. It seems that Trump has conveniently forgotten the fact that Qatar had just signed a $12 billion weapon transfer deal with the United States. His outburst thus reinforces Trump’s own image as a loose cannon and his administration as one that has completely lost its ability to lead in the Middle East.

It’s hardly surprising, then, that on Monday, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani flew to London and not Washington in search of a steadfast broker in the dispute. After UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson met with his Qatari counterpart, he issued an appropriately dispassionate statement calling on the Gulf states to ease the blockade and “all states to take immediate steps to de-escalate the situation and to find a rapid resolution through mediation.”

Because of both new and existing factors, it’s not surprising the UK has decided to act as the adult in the room. Britain has longstanding relations with the Gulf states, including both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, dating back to the days of the Persian Gulf Residency. But with Brexit hanging over its head, the UK needs outside trading partners – especially in the Gulf – more than ever. And this economic imperative might just be the clincher in getting the two parties to take a step back and de-escalate the situation.

It speaks volumes that just five days after Article 50 was triggered, Theresa May traveled to Riyadh to start laying the groundwork for a future free trade deal with the GCC. With her on the Saudi leg of the tour was Xavier Rolet, CEO of the London Stock Exchange, lobbying to handle part of the Saudi Aramco IPO. The sale of a 5% stake in the national oil behemoth is expected to be worth upwards of $100 billion. If London can get a slice of that, it will go a long way towards maintaining the city’s credentials as a global financial hub after it leaves the EU. More broadly, the rampant privatization of Saudi industry and services in an effort to diversify revenue sources opens up an Aladdin’s cave of pickings for British companies, with a slew of multi-billion dollar contracts coming up for tender over the next decade.

The fact that Brexit, and the necessity it creates for the UK to sign new trade deals, coincides with the roll out of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan to secure more foreign investment, means the two countries have more incentive than ever to build upon their foundation of cooperation.

But while Saudi is the UK’s largest trading partner in the region, Qatar supplies 30% of Britain’s natural gas needs. What’s more, the list of British assets that Qatar owns or has invested in reads like a roll call of national icons: Harrods; Claridge’s Hotel; the Olympic village; not to mention the Shard, London’s tallest building. And it’s not only iconic pieces of real estate that rank among the recipients of Qatari largesse. After the economic crash of 2008, Doha stepped in to bail out Barclays bank, saving it from nationalization. All in all, Qatar has already invested $50.1 billion in the UK and has committed to investing another $6.23 billion in the run-up to Brexit.

Given the economic context, then, as well as wider concerns about stability in the Middle East, it’s no surprise that Britain is stepping in to try to calm the dispute. And in a sense, the government has already made a nod to its growing burden of responsibilities in the Gulf. Last month, a committee of UK lawmakers published a new report saying that Britain could no longer rely on US leadership in the Middle East. At the time, there was no signal of the impending Gulf dispute. But the latest string of events might just force the UK to take up the mantle of the mature Western partner perhaps much sooner than expected.

About the author:
*Samantha Maloof
is a freshly minted graduate in International Relations based in Cairo, currently working as a research assistant in a small think tank looking at development and inequality in Africa.

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Knesset Inquiry Reveals Yemenite Babies Murdered In Medical Experiments – OpEd

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The Israeli Knesset has, after sixty years of cover-up, exposed one of the most lurid scandals in the history of Israeli medicine.  In the late 1940s and early 1950s, inspired by Ben Gurion’s philosophy that Israel must populate itself via Jewish immigration to compete with the Arabs, Israel airlifted tens of thousands of Yemenite Jews and resettled them.  It was celebrated as a great humanitarian operation in which the Yemenites were “saved” from a life of destitution and anti-Semitic victimhood in their native land.

Within months of their arrival, reports began circulating of babies who disappeared from hospitals and medical clinics.  The final count amounted to hundreds, perhaps even thousands of babies who were purportedly kidnapped from their parents or even killed.  The grieving parents received no word about what had happened; no death certificate; no explanation.  Even decades later, after three separate boards of inquiry spanning thirty years, the results of the investigations were sealed and victims learned nothing.  The State refused to accept responsibility nor did it compensate the victims for their personal losses.  It is perhaps the greatest medical scandal in Israeli history, ranking right up there with the Tuskegee syphilis experiment in its deviousness and lethality.

In addition, the scandal also involved the U.S. National Institutes of Health, which paid Israeli hospitals nearly $1-million (in current value; then it was 160,000 Israeli lira) to provide fetuses of dead Yemenite babies and corpses of adults which were used in medical experiments to determine why Yemenites did not develop heart disease.  One doctor sought to prove that Yemenites were of African descent.  To do so, he tested the blood of dead Yemenites to determine if they had sickle-cell anemia.  He even wrote a medical paper about his claims.  In their testimony, the doctor who reported on this arrangement said they had called the Yemenites kushim, which is roughly equivalent to “darkie” or “N****r.”

Israel HaYom, which first broke the story, sought comment from an NIH spokesperson who responded that it could not release information without a FOIA request.  I am exploring doing so now.  It’s extremely important to expose whatever role U.S. doctors or researchers played in this disaster.

Living children were also used in anatomy demonstrations in which parts of their bodies were outlined in ink with the names of various organs.  Presumably, this was meant to serve as a live demonstration for students who could see where the organs were located on a living body.

In none of these experiments were the parents of the children asked for permission.  Researchers simply used the Yemenites, living or dead, for the benefit of medicine, which was deemed more critical than the feelings of the mourning parents.

The new report explains why so many Yemenite children died: since none of the Israeli medical staff spoke Yemenite and the patients didn’t speak Hebrew, staff could not learn the names of the children.  Instead, they numbered them.  The numbering system often broke down and patients’ numbers were often switched, misplaced or lost, which led to the wrong medicines being taken and wrong treatments offered.  As a result many died.  The medical staff decided that it should make the best of the opportunity by whisking the bodies off for autopsies or post-mortem experimentation.

 

One of the most ghoulish reports concerns four babies who were hospitalized because they were malnourished.  Though they were in stable condition, doctors decided to inject them with “dry protein.”  In the ‘understated’ words of the chief of staff of the Rosh HaAyin hospital:

Mendel said, “I remember one or two cases in which Dr. Matot gave instructions to give an injection of dry protein that we would separate. Serum, dry plasma … and the results were not good.”

The protocol includes a letter from Dr. Kalman Jacob Mann, deputy medical director of the hospital, to Mendel, dated Nov. 21, 1949, saying: “I visited our hospital in Rosh Haayin, and found that that morning four babies who had received active treatment had died. These babies were in more or less balanced condition according to their physio-pathological condition, but after they were injected with various solutions, the balance was upset and they died.”

The Likud MK leading the current investigation called such acts “murder.”

In further testimony, the lawyer on behalf of the board of inquiry questioned Dr. Mendel about the practice of using dead fetuses for experimentation:

When Nahmani-Roth [the lawyer] asked him whether the unapproved autopsies had caused problems with the parents who wanted to see their children’s bodies, Mendel replied, “I don’t think so, since after the autopsies we’d fix up the baby, so they [the parents] could see its face, so it looked undamaged … but it was completely legal. There were no problems.”

The lawyer shot back: “Not legally, but morally, and out of a sense of the parents’ feelings. Isn’t it possible that consistently, you would conduct autopsies on children and then not show the bodies to their parents?”

Mendel also told the committee that all the testing had been meticulously documented, but that he had heard rumors that “someone destroyed them [the records] seven years later.”

In a number of cases, medical staff simply adopted babies as their own.  The parents, again, were never told a thing other than that the baby had died.  The tragedy in this case is not just that of the parents, but of the children raised by Ashkenazi parents who could or would never tell them how they came to be their parents.  Many of these children grew up to sense they were victims of this disastrous experiment.  But the State offered them nothing, which made things even worse.

A corollary to this tragedy is the Ringworm Affair, in which Israeli doctors treated Yemenite children with radiation against ringworm.  They did so without realizing at the time that the dosage they were giving the children was toxic, even lethal, and would later cause cancer in many of them.  The State similarly denied any culpability for this disastrous medical treatment.

In this age of roaring hate, it’s important to put this story in proper perspective.  There are those who will attempt to compare these experiments with Nazi medical experiments on Jewish children and adults.  There will always be those who seek to prove that Israelis are no different from Nazis.  That’s why it’s important to note that such outrageous medical practices happened around the world including here in the U.S.  They were the result certainly of racism and heartlessness.  But the Israeli experiments, while immoral, were not conducted within a framework of genocide as the Nazi ones were.

However, that in no way lessens the horror of what Israeli medicine did.  It in no way lessens Israeli government culpability for these crimes.  As the MK leading this inquiry noted: this was outright murder.  The fact that Israel has suppressed this story for as long as it has is a dark stain on the nation.  It is yet another reminder of the profound racism at the heart of the Zionist enterprise.  At the very beginning of the State, Yemenite babies were treated as the equivalent of cannon fodder.  Alive, they were meant to fill in the population gaps of Israeli Jews in the demographic battle against the Arabs.  Dead, they were used for the “good” of medical science.  Israel’s doctors and politicians treated the Yemenites as disposable, interchangeable objects to be manipulated for the good of the State.

This article was published at Tikun Olam

UK: Van Mows Down Pedestrians Near London Mosque

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Multiple casualties are reported in London’s Finsbury Park, where a vehicle drove into pedestrians, many of whom are believed to be Muslims coming out of the local mosque after prayers. Police have arrested one person and ambulances are on the scene.

London’s Metropolitan Police said in a statement that “there are a number of casualties being worked on at the scene” of the apparent attack, which took place at Seven Sisters Road.

Social media reports indicate that a white van hit people close to the Finsbury Park Mosque. Multiple reports say the attacker is a white male.

Videos purporting to show the aftermath of the incident emerged on social media, in which several people could be seen lying motionless on the ground.

Twitter user Didier, who says he was at the scene at the time the incident unfolded, posted a video showing the arrest of a suspected attacker by police. Didier wrote that he saw at least seven people injured as a result of the attack, including three of them seriously.

The London Ambulance Service has so far said that they “sent a number of resources to an incident in Seven Sisters Road.”

Before the police arrived at the scene, bystanders reportedly apprehended the alleged attacker and pinned him to the ground.

Armed police arrived at the scene and inspected the van used in the attack. The scene has been cordoned off.

Some eyewitnesses report that the driver veered off the road into the crowd on purpose. The van “slowly and intentionally accelerated into a crowded cafe outside a mosque,” LBC cited an eyewitness as saying.

According to unconfirmed reports cited by the Evening Standard, a man wielding a knife came out of the van after it mounted the pavement and stabbed at least one person.

While police have not yet categorized the incident, the chairman of Finsbury Park mosque, Mohammed Kozbar, labelled it a “terrorist attack,” likening it to the recent terrorist attacks that rocked Manchester and London.

“Whoever did this, he did it to hurt people and it’s a terrorist attack,” Kozbar told the Sun newspaper.

Agitated bystanders approached police cordons, demanding that they disclose the known details and identity of the attacker, RT’s Ruptly agency’s live video feed showed. Officers replied that they “won’t release names,” and continued to call it a “serious, major incident.”

The London Fire Brigade reported that they are assisting the police and ambulance services in dealing with the incident.

Yemen: Militias Loot 63 Ships Loaded With GCC Aid

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Insurgent militias in Yemen have detained and looted more than 63 relief vessels packed with aid provided by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, an official said.

That was the tally at Hodeidah and Saleef ports since the coup militias took control of local operations, said Abdul Raqeeb Fatah, the Yemeni minister of local administration and president of the Supreme Committee of Relief.

The official said in a statement on Sunday that militias have detained and looted more than 550 relief convoys in the entrances to the provinces under their control, which caused the deterioration and aggravation of the local humanitarian situation.

The Yemeni official added that the militia control of the port of Hodeidah has become a concern for the international community and a threat to international shipping, especially given that ships carrying humanitarian aid and relief were targeted. The last vessel targeted was a UAE ship carrying medical aid.

Israel Versus The UN: The Nikki Haley Doctrine – OpEd

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Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, seems to be championing a single cause: Israel.

When Haley speaks about Israel, her language is not merely emotive nor tailored to fit the need of a specific occasion. Rather, her words are resolute, consistent and are matched by a clear plan of action.

Along with Haley, the rightwing Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is moving fast to cultivate the unique opportunity of dismissing the UN, and thus, any attempt at criticizing the Israeli occupation.

Unlike previous UN ambassadors who strongly backed Israel, Haley refrains from any coded language or any attempt, however poor, to appear balanced. Last March, she told a crowd of 18,000 supporters at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) annual policy conference that this is a new era for US-Israel relations.

“I wear heels. It’s not for a fashion statement,” she told a crowd thrilled by her speech. “It’s because if I see something wrong, we’re going to kick ‘em every single time.”

Trump’s new ambassador condemned, in retrospect, UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which strongly criticized Israel’s illegal settlements. While still in its final days in office, the Obama administration did not vote for — but did not veto the resolution, either — thus setting a precedent that has not been witnessed in many years.

The US abstention, according to Haley, was as if the “entire country felt a kick in the gut.”

What made Israel particularly angry over Obama’s last act at the UN was the fact that it violated a tradition that has extended for many years, most notably during the term of John Negroponte, US Ambassador to the UN, during former President George W. Bush’s first term in office.

What became known as the “Negroponte doctrine” was a declared US policy — that Washington will oppose any resolution that criticizes Israel that does not also condemn Palestinians.

But Israel, not the Palestinians, is the occupying power that refuses to honor dozens of UN resolutions and various international treaties and laws. By making that decision, and, indeed, following through to ensure its implementation, the US managed to sideline the UN as an “irrelevant” institution.

Sidelining the UN, then, also meant that the US would have complete control over managing the Middle East, but especially the situation in Palestine.

However, under Trump, even the US-led and self-tailored “peace process” has become obsolete.

This is the real moral but, also political, crisis of the Haley doctrine, for it goes beyond Negroponte’s silencing of any criticism of Israel at the UN, into entirely removing the UN — thus international law — from being a factor in resolving the conflict.

In a talk at the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council — which is made up of 47 member countries — Haley declared that her country is “reviewing its participation” in the council. She claimed that Israel is the “only country permanently on the body’s calendar,” an inaccurate statement that is often uttered by Israel with little basis in truth.

If Haley read the report on the 35th session of the Human Rights Council, she would have realized that the council discussed many issues, pertaining to women’s rights and empowerment, forced marriages and human rights violations in many countries.

But considering that Israel has recently “celebrated” 50 years of occupying Palestinian land, Haley should not be surprised that Israel is also an item on the agenda. In fact, any country that has occupied and oppressed another for so long should also remain an item on international agenda.

Following her speech in which she derided and threatened UN member states in Geneva, she went to Israel to further emphasize her country’s insistence to challenge the international community on behalf of Israel.

Along with the notorious hasbara expert Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Haley toured the Israeli border with Gaza, showing sympathy with supposedly besieged Israeli communities — while on the other side, nearly 2 million Palestinians in Gaza have been trapped for over a decade in a very small region, behind closed borders.

Speaking in Jerusalem on June 7, Haley took on the UN representatives who have “bullied” Israel for too long.

“I have never taken kindly to bullies and the UN has bullied Israel for a very long time and we are not going to let that happen anymore,” she said. “It is a new day for Israel in the United Nations.”

By agreeing to live in Israel’s pseudo-reality, where bullies complain of being bullied, the US is moving further and further away from any international consensus on human rights and international law. This becomes more pronounced and dangerous when we consider the decision by Donald Trump’s administration to pull out from the Paris accords on global warming.

Trump argued that the decision was of benefit to American businesses. Even if one agrees with such an unsubstantiated assertion, Haley’s new doctrine on Israel and the UN, by contrast, can hardly be of any benefit to the US in the short or long run. It simply degrades US standing, leadership and even goes below the lowest standards of credibility practiced under previous administrations.

Worse still, inspired and empowered by Haley’s blank check, Israeli leaders are now moving forward to physically remove the UN from Israel’s occupation of Palestine. Two alarming developments have taken place on that front.

One took place in May when Miri Regev, Israel’s culture and sport minister, made a formal demand to the Israeli Cabinet to shut down the UN headquarters in Jerusalem, to punish UNESCO for restating the international position on the status of Israel’s illegal occupation of East Jerusalem.

The second was earlier this month, when Prime Minister Netanyahu called on Haley to shut down UNRWA, the UN body responsible for the welfare of 5 million Palestinian refugees.

According to Netanyahu, UNRWA “perpetuates” refugee problems. However, the refugees’ problem is not UNRWA per se, but the fact that Israel refuses to honor UN resolution 194 pertaining to their return and compensation.

These developments, and more, are all outcomes of the Haley doctrine. Her arrival at the UN has ignited a US-Israeli hate fest, not only targeting UN member states, but international law and everything that the UN has stood for over the decades.

The US has supported Israel quite blindly at the UN throughout the years. Haley seems to adopt an entirely Israeli position with no regard whatsoever for her country’s allies, or the possible repercussions of dismissing the only international body that still serves as a platform for international engagement and conflict resolution.

Where Does US Administration Stand On Qatar? – OpEd

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By Maria Dubovikova*

The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbors in the Gulf and further afield continues to develop in a dramatic fashion. Some are linking it with US President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh, and some to matters involving Iran. There were suppositions that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had to act during Ramadan, as a preventive step to some unknown hostile maneuver Qatar was getting ready to launch. There are many different conspiracy theories.

Whatever the reasons for the crisis, Qatar has, for a long time, been a thorn in the side of its neighbors and many other Arab states. The coverage by Qatar’s media weapon, Al Jazeera, has endangered the stability of neighboring countries through its support of the notorious Muslim Brotherhood and even some terrorist groups. All of this has been causing a severe headache for regional players. Qatar has been a troublemaker in the region for too long. The conflict has been stewing for a long time with what was a “sworn friend” in GCC. Having erupted now, the conflict poses quite a substantial threat to the region’s stability.

The ongoing crisis in the GCC is really quite dangerous. Despite the efforts to mediate by certain regional and global powers, there is a serious risk that the conflict could escalate into war. The GCC is not homogeneous. Even the closest of allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE seem to have different public approaches and understandings of the ongoing crisis. Turkey has demonstrated its direct involvement in the conflict on the side of Qatar, having deployed troops there. Turkey is attempting to prevent the worst scenario by launching preventive measures, giving a strong message in case of hostile military maneuvers against Qatar. Turkey will not step aside, and that means a serious escalation of the conflict if any military action is taken.

The crisis in the GCC developed not long after the historic summit in Riyadh, which brought together all GCC states ­— including Qatar — and countries of the Islamic world. Numerous deals, worth billions of dollars, were reached between the GCC states and the US. A center for countering extremism was launched, and countries declared a common desire to join forces to fight radicalism and terrorism. The post-summit euphoria was strong but did not last long.

Where does the US administration stand on the Qatari crisis? This question was bound to be raised following the $12 billion deal in which Qatar will buy US-made F-15 fighter jets. The deal was reached just days after Trump said Qatar funds terrorism.

Together with a Turkish military base, Qatar also hosts a US base. And the latter is used by the US Air Force to carry out airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. Obviously the US has no interest in losing its presence in this strategic spot, but at the same time Trump is quite tough on Qatar, and is even harsher on Iran and its allies.

What is clear is that the US administration has no concrete agenda on the Middle East, acting not only ad hoc, but also discordantly. Statements by US officials often contradict each other, and that questions the value and reliability of declarations and undermines the trust toward Washington. There is a severe noticeable gap between Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on the crisis in GCC. Tillerson was making attempts to negotiate the crisis and assist with mediation, while Trump has undermined these attempts, making harsh and undiplomatic declarations, as well as sharing a tough anti-Iranian position.

In such circumstances, foreign officials cannot count on what the US is promising or stating, and that dramatically complicates the decision-making process. There is no agreement even inside the State Department itself. Rumors that Tillerson was looking to hold talks between Qatar and the GCC were probably not groundless, but were denied by the US Department of State, which said there was no intention to hold a summit in Washington to find a solution to the ongoing crisis.

Under Trump, the US is guided by business, not by political principles. Trump is grabbing US allies in the region by their wallets, to rephrase his own words.

The ambiguity of the US position may cost the GCC dearly if regional powers continue to follow everything they like to hear from Washington, but ignore disturbing signals. Evaluations and calculations should be built exclusively from regional perspectives. The Qatar crisis must only be handled by GCC countries themselves, politically. The deepening split caused by the crisis will play into Iran’s hands. And if the crisis does escalate, the US will unlikely come to the aid of its allies.

• Maria Dubovikova is a prominent political commentator, researcher and expert on Middle East affairs. She is president of the Moscow-based International Middle Eastern Studies Club (IMESClub). She can be reached on Twitter: @politblogme.

Azerbaijan: Spy Scandal Leaves Trail Of Dead Suspects

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By Ron Synovitz

(RFE/RL) — Within days of being swept up in a wave of arrests on espionage charges last month, at least four Azerbaijani soldiers and a retired military officer died in custody. The circumstances of their deaths are shrouded in secrecy.

Azerbaijan’s government and military have refused to comment on the deaths, news of which emerged shortly after authorities in May announced the spy scandal.

Journalists who initially reported on the deaths have been warned by the Prosecutor-General’s Office to stop. And most relatives of the dead soldiers are reluctant to speak to journalists, with some expressing fear about their own safety if they do.

The silence, Baku’s poor human rights record, and the way Azerbaijan’s military hastily buried the soldiers without letting relatives see their bodies, have fed rumors that the suspects were tortured to death while being interrogated.

Spying For Armenia

The spy scandal came to light on May 7 when a joint statement was issued by the State Security Service, the Prosecutor-General’s Office, the Interior Ministry, and the Defense Ministry.

It said authorities had “opened a criminal case against a group of military personnel and civilians in Azerbaijan” on charges of “treason against the state.”

The statement said members of the spy ring had worked for the intelligence services of archrival Armenia “at various times in the past” and “for their own interest.”

It also said they provided “state secrets” to Armenia, which Azerbaijan has been locked in conflict with over Nagorno-Karabakh for decades. The two countries fought a bloody war in the 1990s over the breakaway region of Azerbaijan, which is populated mainly by ethnic Armenians and is now controlled by Armenian-backed separatists.

Secretive Arrests

Azerbaijan’s authorities have not named any individuals accused in the spy case or specified how many suspects were arrested and charged.

But Ilham Ismayil, a former State Security Service officer, told RFE/RL that a total of 42 people were arrested in raids during May — mostly in the Terter region.

Ismayil told RFE/RL that the spy scandal stemmed from an incident in late 2016 when a group of Armenian military officers allegedly were allowed to cross from Nagorno-Karabakh and travel behind Azerbaijan’s front lines with the help of Azerbaijani officers.

He said some Armenian officers were given Azerbaijani military uniforms to wear and that they traveled to the center of Terter — a city that was heavily damaged by Armenian forces during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s.

State Security Service chief Madat Guliyev said the roundup of spy-ring suspects was ordered by President Ilham Aliyev after investigators under Guliyev’s command provided evidence to both the president and the Defense Ministry. Based on that evidence, the Defense Ministry took action.

Neither the State Security Service nor Azerbaijan’s government has publicly disclosed the nature of the intelligence the suspects allegedly provided to Armenia.

And, so far, there have been no public court hearings for any of the suspects.

Suspicious Deaths

Yadigar Sadiqov, a politician from the opposition party Musavat, has suggested that the deaths in custody of so many suspects just days after their arrests is highly suspicious.

“We don’t believe they died of natural causes,” Sadiqov wrote in a May 20 opinion column for the Baku-based online newspaper Bastainfo.com.

Location of Nagorno-Karabakh. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
Location of Nagorno-Karabakh. Source: Wikipedia Commons.

Sadiqov also suggested many people in Azerbaijan assume the suspects were tortured to death, noting that “across social media, there are people saying the government was justified to torture and kill” them.

In each case, the suspects were detained in raids close to the contact line that separates Armenian-backed and Azerbaijani forces near Nagorno-Karabakh.

Within days, their dead bodies were returned to their home villages and buried by soldiers who did not allow relatives to see them.

Opposition media in Azerbaijan that have reported about the deaths and burials have been officially warned they would be prosecuted for revealing “state secrets” if they published any more information about the spy case that wasn’t officially released by state institutions.

With the exception of a cousin of one dead soldier who spoke only on condition of anonymity because he feared retribution from authorities, relatives of the deceased suspects have refused to talk to RFE/RL or other media organizations.

Amnesty International confirms that it has received complaints from sources within Azerbaijan alleging that the soldiers were tortured to death.

But Levan Asatiani, Amnesty International’s campaigner on the South Caucasus, says his organization cannot immediately confirm the torture claims because Azerbaijan has become a “closed country” that blocks the work of international human rights researchers.

“We have not been able to verify those reports regarding soldiers and torture in the military,” Asatiani explained. “But Amnesty International generally has concerns about torture and ill treatment in Azerbaijan — specifically in the penitentiary institutions and the detention facilities.”

He said Azerbaijan has a well-documented history of using torture to induce false confessions from political prisoners who are lawyers, journalists, and opposition activists.

“You could say that the use of torture is a trend in Azerbaijan,” Asatiani said.

Hasty Burials

Namized Safarov, a Baku-based human rights lawyer, told RFE/RL that a retired military officer named Saleh Qafarov was arrested on treason charges in early May at his village of Aydinqyshlaq in the Gabala region.

Safarov said Azerbaijani soldiers returned Qafarov’s body four days later for burial in the village, but Qafarov’s relatives never saw his remains and were not allowed to attend the burial.

Since then, Safarov said, Qafarov’s family has faced “heavy harassment” from other villagers angered by the treason allegations. Qafarov’s children have been expelled from school.

Imran Cabbarov, the head of the local government in Aydinqyshlaq, confirmed that Qafarov died in custody.

“He died and was buried,” Cabbarov told RFE/RL. “Only law-enforcement bodies can talk about it. If he committed such a crime as treason, it would serve him right.”

Bastainfo.com and the Berlin-based independent website Meydan TV reported similar circumstances when the bodies of other suspects in the spy case were returned to their villages.

Temkin Nizamioglu, a 24-year-old lieutenant from the Ordubad region near Azerbaijan’s southern border with Iran, was one of at least three active military officers reportedly arrested in the case.

Nizamioglu was buried in his village of Darkend by Azerbaijani soldiers who returned his body.

“It’s true that his body was brought to the village for burial, and according to the soldiers who brought him, he had heart problems and died in a hospital,” the village’s municipal chief, Raqib, said.

The body of officer Elcin Quliyev was delivered for burial in his town of Terter on May 18 shortly after he was arrested in the spy case.

A cousin of Quliyev, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Meydan TV that the soldiers who returned his body didn’t give the family any details about the cause of his death.

“They just said they were investigating the issue and would inform us about the cause of his death when that investigation is finished,” the cousin said.

Mehman Huseynov, a military officer from the village of Agkend in the Terter region, also died in custody within days of being arrested in the spy case.

Local residents refused to allow Huseynov to be buried in the village cemetery because of the treason accusations against him.

Meydan TV also reported that a 32-year-old soldier named Elcin Mirzaliyev was buried in his village of Shalig in the Ucar region, within days of being arrested in the case.

That report said Mirzaliyev died on May 25 and was returned to his village the next day by soldiers who buried him without allowing relatives to see his body or attend his burial.

The head of Shalig’s municipality, Arif Ahmadov, confirmed that Mirzaliyev was buried but would not give any details about the cause of his death.

There have been anonymous claims on social media that other Azerbaijani soldiers have died in custody after being arrested for treason in the spy scandal.

RFE/RL could not confirm the veracity of those reports or attest to the reliability of the sources.


Saudi-UAE Actions Against Qatar To Go All The Way, Mark A New Start – Analysis

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By Riad Kahwaji*

What started off as a minor spat between the Arab Gulf neighbors ended in severing of ties and harsh tit-for-tat moves. The latest showdown between Qatar and other major players on the Arab scene, especially its Gulf neighbors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, indicates that the “grey zone” has vanished and the region is headed towards an escalation in the “war on terrorism” and in the confrontation with Iranian expansionist schemes.

For several years the tiny oil and gas-rich Arab Gulf State of Qatar has managed to play a role that puzzled many observers. It often appeared as if one is dealing with two opposing entities or personalities. Among the many examples Qatar could be seen on the one hand being a member of the Saudi-led Arab Alliance that is fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi forces that took control of Yemen couple of years ago, while on the other it continues to praise Tehran and underlines its role in the stability of the region. Also Qatar on the one side it endorsed decisions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in condemning the Muslim Brotherhood movement, while on the other it provided shelter and safe haven to many exiled members of the movement and the country’s powerful media outlets continued to support the movement and other groups regarded by its neighbors as extremist.

Therefore Doha managed to operate in a “grey zone” whereby it remained a strong and active member of the GCC and the U.S.-led Alliance fighting terrorism, while at the same time advocating policies and positions that contradicted their agendas. It established powerful media outlets in Arabic and English – the most famous of them is Aljazeera – that targeted many Arab regimes, branded US forces in parts of the region as occupiers and invaders and provided a platform to leaders of extremist groups to voice their agendas. It funded the creation of armed groups in Syria and Libya that were meant to take part in national movements to overthrow dictatorships there but afterwards turned into extremist groups affiliated with Al Qaeda. It paid tens of millions of dollars to Sunni and Shiite extremist groups under the pretext of ransoms to free hostages.

Qatar managed to get away with its policies under the former U.S. Administration of Barrak Obama which had adopted a policy of appeasement with Iran leading to the signing of the Vienna nuclear agreement. Being the base for the U.S. Central Command and the home for the largest American air base in the Middle East, Qatar acted with strong confidence that it is untouchable. Qatari officials have often told their guests in private sessions that U.S. forces in Qatar would protect it from any foreign aggression, not necessarily Iran but even from Arab countries. Hence the U.S. military presence in Doha seems to be part of the country’s agenda of securing a foreign protector to enable it to adopt whatever policies it chooses. It is worth noting that when Saudi Arabia asked the U.S. to remove its bases from the Kingdom after the September 11, 2001 incidents Qatar was quick to offer to host the bases and even built Al Udeid Air Base from its own pocket.

However, Saudi Arabia and UAE have now drawn the line and appear determined to subdue Qatar. They appear to have gathered strength from the new more hawkish American administration under President Donald Trump. Riyadh last month hosted a major American-Arab-Muslim summit that marked Trump’s first foreign trip as U.S. president. The Riyadh summit witnessed the forging of strong relation with Washington and the birth of an Arab-Islamic NATO that will assist the U.S. in its war on terrorism. The Summit declaration also criticized Iranian expansionist schemes and vowed to work together to confront them. The action against Qatar indicate that Saudi Arabia will be more bold and hawkish in its actions against Iran and extremist groups it has branded along with its allies as terrorist like the Muslim Brotherhood.

Unlike the previous time when the same Arab Gulf States broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar, this time pressure on Doha will be intense. The confrontation will take on the shape of a strong commercial, economic and trade war that will squeeze the small Gulf island very hard, especially during tough economic times. The Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will most likely come under immense internal pressure and increase his threat perception domestically. Qatar has a history of coup de tats and Tamim’s father Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani came to power in a coup against his own father in 1995. Sheikh Hamad passed on power to Sheikh Tamim, 37, in June 2013 in an unusual move that raised many questions that remain unanswered about the motives. However, many Qatari and Gulf officials and analysts still believe that Sheikh Hamad, 65, is still the ruler in the shadows.

The current crisis poses a serious test to the United States that has thus far called for self-restraint and for the preservation of unity amongst its Arab allies. Washington will certainly be glad to see Qatar clamp down on charity organizations suspected of funding terrorist groups and repositioning itself on Iran. However the U.S. does not want at this stage to take sides openly. It will most likely prefer a covert manner of mediating and pressuring concerned parties to reach a settlement soon. A strong leverage in U.S. hands is fate of Al Udeid base that Doha regards as an essential component of its national defense policy. However, if mediations fail and Qatar decides to be defiant and seek to counter Saudi actions by enhancing partnerships with players like Iran, Russia and Turkey, then Washington will likely have to reconsider its position and embark on moves that will secure its interests, especially the fate of its bases on the island.

Qatar so far appears in a state of shock due to the severity and scale of actions by its opponents that are taking an escalatory course. Its economy will be hard hit and its small population of less than half a million is feeling the impact already, and will subsequently put pressure on its leadership to resolve the situation. Doha will not find a strong ally at the White House as previously was the case and many of the European leaders have mixed feeling about it. Seeking to realign itself more openly with Iran, Turkey and Russia will only alienate it from the West and increase public descent among a good portion of the Western-educated Qatari society and military. So Sheikh Tamim is in a no-win situation where the only way forward is to make concessions and agree to most of the Saudi-Emirate terms to survive this crisis.

Riad Kahwaji, is the founder and director of INEGMA with a 28 years of experience as a journalist and a Middle East security analyst.

Trends And Priority Shifts In Artificial Intelligence Technology Invention: A Global Patent Analysis

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Patent applications are a good indicator of the nature of technological progress. This column compares trends in applications for artificial intelligence patents in Japan and the US. One finding is that the Japanese market appears to be less attractive for artificial intelligence technology application, perhaps due to its stricter regulations on the collection and use of data.

By Hidemichi Fujii and Shunsuke Managi*

The number of patents granted has rapidly increased. Figure 1 shows the number of artificial intelligence (AI) patents granted by application country and technology type and reveals that it has increased more than threefold (from 708 items in 2012 to 2,888 items in 2016). In particular, AI patents granted in the US increased by 1,628 items during this period (Figure 1a), accounting for approximately 75% of the increase worldwide.

Figure 1 Trend of AI patents granted, 2000 to 2016 (number of items)

a) Number of AI patents granted by country

b) Number of AI patents granted by technology

Source: Author estimates using IPC code in Appendix 1 and PATSTAT database.
Note: USPTO: United States Patent and Trademark Office; SIPO: State Intellectual Property Office of The People’s Republic of China; JPO: Japan Patent Office; PCT: Patent Cooperation Treaty; EPO: European Patent Office

As shown in Figure 1b, the patent share of each AI technology type changed from 2012 to 2016. In 2012, biological and knowledge-based models were the leaders in patented AI technologies. However, from 2012 to 2016, the number of patents granted for specific mathematical models and other AI technologies rapidly increased, doubling from 2015 to 2016. These two figures show the short-term trend of AI patenting based on country and technology.

The time and geographical specifics of AI technology patents

Table 1 represents the change of AI patents granted by type of technology at each patent office. The table shows that the composition of patent-granted shares differs among countries. The knowledge-based model represents more than half of the total number of AI patents granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), whereas the biological model is the major technology type granted by the State Intellectual Property Office (SIPO) and the Japan Patent Office (JPO). Another finding is that the share of the specific mathematical model is only 1.7% in the JPO, which is extremely low compared with that of other patent offices. This outcome occurs because Japanese AI researchers primarily focus on android technology-based research and development (R&D) – and not mathematical elements – which represents the core AI technology (The Japan News, 2017). The Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), the European Patent Office (EPO), and the patent offices of other countries exhibit similar trends with respect to the technology share pattern of AI patent publications.

Table 1 Data descriptions of AI technology patents granted (item)

Source: Author estimates using IPC code in Appendix 1 and PATSTAT database.
Note: USPTO: United States Patent and Trademark Office; SIPO: State Intellectual Property Office of The People’s Republic of China; JPO: Japan Patent Office; PCT: Patent Cooperation Treaty; EPO: European Patent Office.

Next, we consider the numerical change of AI patents granted. As shown in Table 1, all of the patent offices except the JPO published the highest number of AI patents from 2015 to 2016. Notably, the number of patents granted more than doubled at the USPTO, SIPO, and PCT. However, the average number of patents granted per year at the JPO was highest from 2005 to 2009 for the biological model, and from 2010 to 2014 for the knowledge-based model.

One interpretation of this result is that the Japanese market is less attractive for AI technology application. Most AI technology services are strongly related to big data collection through the internet (such as social network systems, credit card payments, and sensors). Because of concerns among its residents, Japan is strict regarding the use of private information for business (Kawasaki 2015). The business barrier regarding big data collection and use minimises the incentive to obtain AI patents in Japan. In the US, the government has established rules and regulations regarding the use of private information as Big Data (Hardy and Maurushat 2017, Manyika et al. 2011). Additionally, there are large governmental R&D expenditures for AI technology innovation in the US, which is another strong incentive for AI technology development (National Science and Technology Council 2016).

Attributing AI technology patents correctly

Figure 2 lists the top 30 applicants for AI patents granted worldwide. The bottom rows represent the number of patents granted to universities in the US, China, and Japan. As shown in Figure 2, IBM Corporation is the world’s leading recipient for AI patents granted. Additionally, of the top 30 grantees for AI patents granted, 18 applicants are US companies, 8 applicants are Japanese companies, and 4 applicants are companies from other countries. Notably, Chinese companies and universities are not listed among the top 30 countries evaluated for the 2000-2016 period, which implies that AI patents granted in China are obtained by many applicants.

Figure 2 Number of AI patents granted and technology portfolios, 2000 to 2016

Next, we discuss the composition of the AI technology patent share for each applicant. Figure 2 indicates that the patent portfolio of AI technology varies among applicants. Qualcomm and BRAIN Corporation garnered the highest share for the biological model. However, SAP and Cognitive Scale had the largest share for the knowledge-based model. D-Wave Systems obtained 92% of other AI patents, an outcome that represents a completely different trend from other companies. Notably, the companies listed in the top half of the list obtained patents in a wide range of AI technology areas.

According to Figure 2, a large proportion of the AI patents granted to Chinese and Japanese universities were for technology based on the biological model. This trend differs from that found for US universities. In addition, US universities have obtained a large proportion of patents for AI technology that uses a knowledge-based model. This trend resembles that found for the composition of patents granted by the USPTO (see Table 1).

Who invented a patented AI technology and where?

As shown in Figure 3, most US companies have a large share of AI patent invention according to the USPTO data. By contrast, the share of patented inventions of US companies from the JPO and SIPO is small. With the exception of NTT Corporation, non-US companies have more than a 16% patent share at the USPTO. Specifically, Samsung Group has 61% of all AI patents issued by the USPTO. Surprisingly, four of the eight Japanese companies were granted more AI patents by the USPTO than by the JPO. These results imply that Japanese companies have strong incentives to obtain AI patents from the USPTO, while there is less incentive for US companies to obtain AI patents from the JPO. This result is consistent with the interpretation that big data use creates an advantage for the US market with respect to AI technology application.

Figure 3 Distribution of country or organisation of AI patents granted from 2000 to 2016

Based on Figure 3, universities clearly tend to apply for AI patents at domestic patent offices. In particular, 98% of the AI patents obtained by Chinese universities were granted by the SIPO, with a low number granted by other patent offices. By contrast, US and Japanese universities apply for AI patents at the PCT in addition to their domestic patent offices. Notably, approximately 45% of the AI technology patents granted in China were obtained by Chinese universities. This outcome is unique. In other countries, private companies are the primary patent applicants.

Priority shift of AI technology invention

Figure 4 shows the results of a decomposition analysis for four specific AI technology patents granted at all of the patent offices listed in the patent scope database. Because the AI patent trend changes beginning in 2012 (Figure 1), we divided the decomposition analysis results into two periods (the first period runs from 2000 to 2011, and the second period from 2012 to 2016). The plotted point in red indicates the change in the number of specific patents granted, and the bar chart shows the effects of each decomposed factor on the number of patents granted related to specific AI technologies. The sum of the bars is equivalent to the value of the plotted point. The figure shows the differences in the driving factors for patents granted based on the type of AI technology.

Figure 4 Results of patent decomposition analysis (number of items)

Note: The vertical axis is standardised by setting the number of changes in patents granted in 2000 and 2012 to zero.

Figure 4 shows that the number of patents granted for technology based on the biological and knowledge-based models increased during the first period. However, the priority of specific AI technology affects these two technology types differently. As shown in Figure 4, during the first period, the relative priority of the biological model was negative, whereas that of the knowledge-based model was positive. This result implies that the priority of AI technology patent invention shifted from the biological model to the knowledge-based model over the first period. The number of patents granted for the other two technology types did not change significantly during the first period, which indicates that these two technologies were treated as less important than technologies based on the biological and knowledge-based models during that period.

Based on the results for the second period, the number of patents granted substantially increased for all four AI technologies. In addition, the priority of specific technologies shifted from the biological and knowledge-based models to the specific mathematical model and other AI model during the second period. Specifically, the number of patents granted for other AI technology was 624 items during the second period, which is more than that for the biological model (565 items) and close to that for the knowledge-based model (693 items) (see red points in Figure 4).

Editor’s note: The main research on which this column is based first appeared as a Discussion Paper of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) of Japan.

*About the authors:
Hidemichi Fujii,
Associate Professor, Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University

Shunsuke Managi, Distinguished Professor of Technology and Policy and Director, Urban Institute, Kyushu University

References:
Fujii, H, and S Managi (2017), “Trends and Priority Shifts in Artificial Intelligence Technology Invention: A global patent analysis,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-066.

Hardy, K, and A Maurushat, (2017), “Opening up government data for Big Data analysis and public benefit”, Computer Law and Security Review 33, 30-7.

Kawasaki, S (2015), “The challenges of transportation/traffic statistics in Japan and directions for the future”, IATSS Research 39, 1-8.

Manyika, J, M Chui, B Brown, J Bughin, R Dobbs, C Roxburgh, A H Byers, and McKinsey Global Institute (2011), Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Productivity, McKinsey.

National Science and Technology Council (2016), The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, Washington, D.C.

The Japan News (2017), “Japan’s Critically Late Start in AI Research”, 22 February.

UK Election Results Might Be Good For India – OpEd

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By Bhaswati Mukherjee*

It has been famously that seven days is a long time in politics. This maxim applies aptly to the present UK political scene. There has been a dramatic drop in popular support for the Conservatives over a six week period. The roaring back of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party is one of the most important political narratives in the making in Europe. Another two weeks, Labour Party sources say, could have seen the decimation of the Conservative Party.

Did the results reflect the anger of the 48% of the “Remainers”? Had the country turned against May’s grand plan of a hard Brexit, negotiated and signed, bypassing Parliament? Was it the result of a flawed election campaign, reflecting arrogance, a refusal for a public debate and calls for cuts for care for the elderly, scathingly referred to by the media as a “dementia tax”? More significantly, in the European context, the results brought a halt to the swing to the extreme right, predicted immediately after the victory of President Donald Trump in the US.

One immediate effect was the call by senior Tory and Labour MPs to forge a new cross-party approach to Brexit. May was told to drop her “hard Brexit” approach in favour of a new “national” consensus, which could be endorsed by members from all sides of the House of Commons. This would enable parliamentary scrutiny of the process. It would throw open the debate on what kind of Brexit was desirable. There were apprehensions that May’s political vulnerability could lead to the imminent collapse of Brexit talks due on 19 June 2017.

Reflecting similar fears, Labour’s Yvette Cooper called for a cross-party commission to run the negotiations and a transparent process to build a consensus. Cooper noted: “In a hung parliament, you can’t possibly try to run the Brexit negotiations through a Theresa May-led Tory cabal. The whole thing will just fall apart. It would be impossible to drive through the expected nine separate Brexit bills, on issues as wide-ranging as immigration policy, the right of EU citizens and trade, on the whim of a weakened Prime Minister in charge of a minority administration.” Former Tory cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell, now chairman of the European Movement, a pro-EU group, said: “It is essential that Parliament maintains for itself the option of voting for Britain to remain a member of the EU if it becomes clear that this is the best way to secure Britain’s national interest.”

Particularly ironical were informal reports emanating from Brussels that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had urged May to call the elections before negotiations commence. He was reportedly concerned that the 17-seat majority that May had inherited from David Cameron would be inadequate on issues such as the UK’s divorce bill, estimated to be about €100 billion. Juncker’s chief of staff, Martin Selmayr, on Twitter today re- tweeted one German journalist who had commented: “Cameron wanted to secure his power and got the Brexit. May wanted to secure their power, and screwed up the Brexit! Strange”. It reflects the Commission’s thinking on this issue.

How do these developments impact India? 12 Indian-origin MPs, from Labour and Conservative Party respectively, were swept to victory, including two first timers who made to the House. Among them was Labour MP Keith Vaz who is today UK’s longest serving Asian MP. Four MPs came from Jalandhar, Punjab, leading analysts to compare these results with composition of Canadian Government, where four Sikhs are cabinet ministers and 19 are members of the Canadian Parliament. Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi became the first turbaned Sikh MP while Preet Kaur Gill as the first Sikh woman MP, adding diversity to the ethnic representation in the House of Commons. India’s voice is now represented in both parties.

There has been media speculation that May is probably a better deal for India than Corbyn and his Labour Party. This could be a premature or flawed conclusion. During May’s visit to India, she had refused to compromise on immigration or other issues of vital importance to India, issues where both Cameron and Blair had demonstrated much greater understanding and sensitivity. There is no certainty that she would change her stand. In case she is replaced through an internal Tory revolt by Boris Johnson, for whom a signature campaign has already begun, the dynamics could change. During his own visit to Delhi, Johnson demanded a new “turbocharged” relationship with India. He however had made no commitment on “free movement of people” and “greater access to the UK for students and IT professionals”.

With the pound falling against the dollar and weakening in one day by 17% against the rupee, Indian exports have suddenly become more expensive. The negotiations on a bilateral Free Trade Agreement, once the Brexit deal is complete, especially if May continues as Prime Minister, would be a complex process. The Indian Ministry of Commerce has commenced an internal audit and analysis of the trade issues with UK in anticipation of the negotiations. If in terms of the final Brexit agreement, Indian business in UK are denied access to the EU market, the result would be the flight of Indian business from UK to Europe. Bilaterally, India would continue to insist on inclusion of Mode 4 under WTO (Mode 4 covers temporary movement of natural persons). UK, under May, is unlikely to be flexible on Mode 4 and open up to immigration.

Indian policy makers hope that if the coalition arrangements works and the Conservatives form a minority government with the Northern Ireland based DUP (Democratic Unionist Party), May would be compelled to compromise on immigration issues, given that the DUP rejects a hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic, a border which has been fluid since the Good Friday agreement. DUP would inevitably steer May to a soft Brexit, which would also be debated and voted upon in Parliament. In a complex and uncertain scenario what is clear is a soft Brexit is good for India. Ultimately, the result of these elections could result in a more balanced and fair bilateral Free Trade Agreement. Seven days is indeed a long time in politics.

*Bhaswati Mukherjee is a former Indian Ambassador and an expert on European affairs

Nepal: Ethnic And Indigenous Groups In Peacebuilding Processes – Analysis

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By Clare Castillejo*

Nepal’s conflict and peacebuilding process positioned the historical marginalisation of indigenous, ethnic minority, and other identity groups at the centre of the political agenda and saw these communities mobilise in unprecedented ways. While Nepal’s peace and constitutional processes involved a range of commitments to address historical marginalisation and build a more inclusive state, so far these commitments have not been met. The resulting disillusionment and anger among indigenous and ethnic groups could threaten the country’s stability, and addressing this issue must be a priority for Nepal’s political leaders and international donors.

Identity and exclusion in Nepal

Nepal’s population is made up of a complex mosaic of different ethnic, caste and regional identities. According to the 2011 census there are 123 caste and ethnic groups in Nepal speaking 125 languages. However, political power and access to resources have historically been controlled by high-caste, hill-based groups, notably Brahmins and Chhetris, who developed the Nepali state and national identity to reflect their interests. As Neelakantan et al. (2016: 7) describe,

the state defined particular, restrictive ways of being Nepali to create a nation in the image of its “upper- caste” Hindu, Nepali-speaking ruling groups. An aspirational Nepali identity has been aggressively promoted through the Nepali language, and acceptance of the supremacy of the Hindu religion.

A number of caste and ethnic identity groups experience deep, structural marginalisation. Nepal’s officially recognised indigenous populations (“Janajatis”) make up around 37% of the population and comprise 59 groups, each with a distinct language, history and cultural identity. While Janajati communities are very diverse, they have common experiences of social, political, and economic marginalisation and the appropriation of traditional lands and natural resources. According to the UN Special Rapporteur on Indigenous People, “Across the country, [Janajatis] rank low in all human development indicators. Most … live in conditions of poverty that, on the whole, are double or more the national poverty level” (Anaya, 2009: 9).

Another minority ethnic people who have faced historical discrimination are the Madhesis. These are caste-based Hindus and Muslims living in the Tarai (the plains that border India) who speak plains languages and have extensive economic, linguistic, social and kinship ties with India. Madhesis have faced discrimination from hill communities based on the belief that they are not truly Nepali and are not loyal to the Nepali state. Madhesis have a long history of activism over their political identity.
In addition to ethnic discrimination, caste discrimination runs throughout most of Nepali society. Indeed, Dalits1 are among Nepal’s most marginalised populations, while other low-caste groups also suffer discrimination. Other groups also face identity-based exclusion, including freed bonded labourer communities, Muslims and other religious minorities, and women.

Any attempt to understand how indigenous and ethnic groups have engaged with peacebuilding must recognise the complex and overlapping nature of identities in Nepal. These can create double discrimination, e.g. for Dalits or Muslim Madhesis, or for indigenous women. They also shape access to power and resources both at the national level and within ethnic communities; e.g. high-caste men dominate Madhesi political parties, just as they do mainstream political parties. It is also important to understand how different identities have been mobilised at different times, and how emphasis on certain types of identities can create political momentum in some areas, such as around political autonomy for Madhesi or Janajati populations, while undermining opportunities to mobilise across such ethnic identities around other sets of interests, such as Dalit- or gender- related issues.

Throughout the history of Nepal there has been little space for the expression of ethnic identity demands. However, from the 1960s onwards there was some limited mobilisation by ethnic communities, e.g. around the appropriation of indigenous lands in the eastern hills, or language and access to government jobs in the Tarai. The advent of democracy in 1990 marginally increased the political space to discuss identity issues. The 1990 constitution formally recognised the country’s ethnic, religious and linguistic diversity, although Nepal remained a Hindu monarchy with Nepali as the sole official language. This period saw a mushrooming of Janajati civil society organisations that drew on global discourses on indigenous rights to demand language rights, decentralisation, political autonomy and representation in state bodies. As Strasheim and Bogati (2016: 5) describe, “these movements began to influence the political discourse on how to restructure the state” and contributed to the passing of the Nepal Federation for the Development of Indigenous Nationalities Act in 2002, which recognises “Janajati” as a legal category.

Experience of conflict

The Maoist party recognised that multiple identity-based forms of discrimination were a central driver of inequality in Nepal and had championed the rights of marginalised ethnic communities even before its armed struggle had started.2 Once the Maoists launched their insurgency in 1996 many of their core demands around inclusion, language, political autonomy, secularism, and discrimination aligned with ethnic and indigenous interests. The Maoists incorporated ethnic issues into their policies and structures, creating a central-level ethnic department in the party and basing the boundaries of autonomous regions in the Maoists’ people’s government on ethnic criteria.

While the Maoists’ championing of ethnic and indigenous demands came from a genuine commitment to address structural inequality in Nepal, it also enabled them to capitalise on the aspirations of marginalised communities. As Cats-Baril (2014: 307) argues,

Nepal’s indigenous peoples and other marginalized groups were easy recruits to the insurgency – their willingness to join the Maoists only highlighted the degree of social and political discontent that these groups felt living under the Hindu-dominated government and the extent of their disappointment in the democratization project initiated by the ratification of Nepal’s 1990 Constitution.

The Maoists’ heartland of mid-west and mid-hill areas has high levels of Janajati populations, from whom the organisation recruited heavily for party members and fighters. However, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG, 2011) it was in the eastern hills and the eastern and central Tarai that the Maoists were most dependent on building alliances with ethnic activists to gain support. However, the Maoists’ relationships with ethnic groups were often fraught. Maoist leaders were mostly from high-caste hill communities, and some ethnic groups questioned the priority they gave to ethnic issues and criticised their failure to appoint members of ethnic communities to senior posts in Maoist structures. Indeed, some Tarai leaders ultimately broke away from the Maoists to form new groups focused solely on regional and identity issues.

The security forces targeted indigenous and ethnic communities during the conflict, and these communities continue to have a fraught relationship with these forces. The Janajati Tharu community3 suffered particularly high levels of human rights abuses, constituting one-third of the 900 Nepalis who were “disappeared” by the state between 1996 and 2006, despite forming only 7% of the population (ICG, 2016). Similarly, the security forces targeted both the Janajati Magar community – the dominant ethnic group in much of the Maoist heartland – and the Madhesi communities in the Tarai. In sum, indigenous and ethnic groups were disproportionately involved in the conflict as combatants and casualties, and in the suffering experienced by their communities. They played a critical role in the Maoists’ success and believed that the Maoists would further their interests.

Peace process

In 2006 Nepal’s decade-long civil war ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). This agreement called for state restructuring and social, economic and cultural transformation through a Con- stituent Assembly (CA). It stated that

in order to end discriminations based on class, ethnicity, language, gender, culture, religion and region and to address the problems of women, Dalit, indigenous people, ethnic minorities (Janajatis), Tarai communities (Madhesis), oppressed, neglected and minority communities and the backward areas by deconstructing the current centralised and unitary structure, the state shall be restructured in an inclusive, democratic and forward looking manner (CPA, 2006).

In the post-conflict environment the issue of addressing the exclusion of historically marginalised communities became central, driven initially by the Maoists. Identity groups took advantage of the new political space to mobilise in unprecedented ways. For example, the Janajati movement consolidated and allied itself with the Maoists in negotiations on the formation of the CA, while Madhesi groups formed new ethnic political parties. As identity issues became increasingly important, ethnic pressures also emerged within traditional, non-ethnic political parties. As the International Crisis Group describes, “the new democratic space allowed these groups to rapidly gain organisational strength and intellectual clarity [and to] challenge the strong, state- supported definition of Nepali identity created in the image of the Nepali speaking, hill-origin, Hindu upper- caste male” (ICG, 2016: 3).

However, it is important to note that not all excluded groups were able to make their voices heard in the post-conflict environment, and hence some identity- based interests were privileged over others. As Neelakantan et al. (2016: 9) describe,

real participation was extended to those [excluded groups] who could also claim to mobilise politically, such as the Madhesi parties, to contest elections, but also to organise shutdowns and street movements …. To a lesser extent, Janajati actors were able to lay similar claims through their informal cross-party caucus in the first CA and in the major street mobilisation that preceded its dissolution. There was minimal expansion in the influence of Dalit and women representatives.

Dalits in particular have struggled to promote their interests within the process of post-conflict state restructuring, because they are spread out across Nepal’s territory and frequently subsumed into other identity groups in which they occupy a subordinate position.

In 2007 an interim constitution was adopted. The two main traditional parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist and Leninist (UML), initially blocked the inclusion of commitments to federalism in this constitution. This had been a central demand of the Maoists and marginalised communities, who saw federalism as a means to devolve power away from traditional elites and ensure the greater political representation of excluded ethnic groups and regions.

Hence, in response the Madhesis launched protests across the Tarai in 2007, resulting in the interim constitution being changed to include federalism. In 2008 the Madhesis again mobilised in protest to successfully push for a higher quota in the proportional representation (PR) element of the mixed electoral system. This Madhesi mobilisation in 2007 and 2008, together with a less intense Janajati movement over similar issues, highlighted the new power of excluded ethnic and indigenous groups, as well as the important role of street protests, in influencing the direction of peacebuilding. Neelakantan et al. (2016: 9) argue that these protests “launched a forceful public discussion about the exclusionary nature of the Nepali state”. Throughout the long constitutional process the Madhesis have been the most vocal and influential identity-based group.

Constitutional process

From 2008 to 2015 Nepal experienced a long-drawn-out, complex and frustrating process of constitution drafting during which the political parties represented in the CA repeatedly failed to reach agreement. In 2015, following Nepal’s devastating earthquake, the three main political parties ‘fast tracked’ the adoption of a constitution that did not meet the aspirations of many identity groups and triggered major unrest.

The Constitutional Assembly

In 2008 the first CA was elected, with the Maoists winning the most seats. Maoist commitments to identity-based federalism had allowed them to harness the vote of marginalised identity groups and were a major factor in their success.

The electoral system that the Madhesis and Janajatis had pushed so hard for resulted in a highly inclusive and representative CA. Out of 601 representatives, 191 women, 196 Madhesis and 192 indigenous representatives were elected.4 However, there was concern among Janajati representatives that, despite their significant numbers in the CA, the electoral and party system prevented them from having much influence. Janajati CA members were elected from among candidates chosen by mainstream political parties and were subject to these parties’ whip system and voting discipline, while the parties had the power to unseat members at any time. This made it difficult for Janajati CA representatives to break party lines to promote indigenous issues or be accountable to indigenous populations. Also, Janajati CA members represented a range of different indigenous
groups, with somewhat differing priorities and interests, as well as varying levels of experience of political engagement. However, despite these constraints, indigenous representatives managed to develop an active cross-party Janajati caucus for collaboration on common indigenous issues. The Madhesis, on the other hand, were largely represented in the CA through their own parties and had a significant history of political activism to draw on, giving them greater freedom and political capacity to operate.

During the first CA the Maoists, Madhesis and Janajatis were relatively united. Their core demand was for identity-based federalism, with federal states constructed primarily on ethnic, linguistic or cultural lines, which they saw as a central means to address the political, economic and cultural exclusion of Nepal’s many non-elite ethnic and regional groups. However, the NC and UML, together with smaller right-wing parties, rejected identity-based federalism as undermining national unity, meritocracy and individual rights, and instead promoted geographically based federalism, which offered less power to identity groups. The Maoists, Madhesis and Janajatis also wanted an electoral system that involved a significant proportional representation (PR) element and quotas for marginalised communities, as well as the restructuring of state institutions such as the judiciary to redress historical marginalisation and redistribute power.5 However, traditional political parties also opposed these demands. In essence, this was a struggle between those groups that were disadvantaged and those that were privileged by Nepal’s old political settlement, with each promoting a federal model and reform agenda that served its interests.

The CA was unable to come to agreement, and after multiple mandate extensions it lapsed in 2012. This failure of the first CA was accompanied by large street protests by ethnic, caste and regional identity-based groups who were frustrated by the lack of progress on their agenda. It was also followed by a split in the Maoist party due to internal tensions over the party’s inability to achieve results and its future direction.

A new CA was elected in 2013, in which the NC and UML were the largest parties, with the Maoists a distant third. Madhesi parties and newly formed Janajati-based parties6 had splintered and also did badly at the polls.

Hence, those advocating for identity-based federalism had less voice in the second CA. This CA also struggled to make progress and missed its own deadline for drawing up a constitution of January 2015. It was only following the earthquakes in spring 2015, and with the Maoist party significantly shifting its position to drop insistence on identity-based federalism, that a way forward was developed for agreeing a constitution. However, it was one that violated previous commitments to inclusion contained in the CPA and interim constitution, notably to restructure the state in “an inclusive, democratic and forward looking manner” (CPA, 2006).

Nepal’s problematic politics

The problematic nature of Nepali politics has been a major barrier to addressing the historical marginalisation of ethnic and indigenous groups within the constitutional process. Nepal’s political parties are weak and personalised, with undemocratic structures and decision-making processes. The main parties are also overwhelmingly controlled by a Kathmandu-based, male, high-caste, hill-community elite that has little understanding of the experiences and grievances of excluded communities. Moreover, the hierarchical nature of these parties means that leaders have been able to resist internal pressure to address identity issues. More broadly, the unstable nature of Nepal’s political system keeps parties focused on gaining power rather than developing or delivering on a policy agenda. While hopes were initially high that the CA would break with this unstable and undemocratic type of politics, this did not happen and the new identity-based political actors instead adopted this political culture. As Neelakantan et al. (2006: 11) point out,

At both the national and local levels … the behaviour of the new actors has very much reflected the workings of the old political order – the use of connections, reliance on state patronage networks, and the instrumentalisation of agendas, ideology and weaker partners in the pursuit of access to state power and resources.

Critically, Nepal’s political parties – old and new – lacked the capacity to address the complex political challenges involved in renegotiating the political settlement, and instead became bogged down in political wrangling and the promotion of personal agendas. Without the internal democracy needed to build intra-party consensus or effectively represent their members, all the main parties have experienced internal conflict and fragmentation. This can be seen in the dissent, factionalism, and
leadership crises within the NC and UML, which are riven by divisions over key political issues, including ethnic demands. It can also be seen in the split in the Maoist party and its ultimate abandonment of the inclusion agenda as, caught up in endless politicking and power struggles, the party turned into what is largely yet another mainstream, elite-led party. As Neelakantan et al. (2006: 14) describe,

Political and social groups have supported or resisted inclusion according to their (sometimes fluctuating) interests …. The coherence of the Maoists’ wartime solidarity with Janajatis and other “oppressed nationalities”, for example, has struggled to survive the vagaries of peacetime, and their commitment to advancing inclusion has come up against competing priorities and the realities of power politics.

The new constitution

After the spring 2015 earthquakes and resulting humanitarian disaster, Nepal’s political parties were under intense pressure to finalise the constitutional process. In summer 2015 the leadership of the three largest parties (NC, UML and Maoists) developed and pushed through a new constitution, ignoring dissent from within their own parties, objections from other parties, and warnings from the international community that wider buy-in was needed for the constitution to be accepted as legitimate. Nepal’s new constitution was passed on 20 September 2015 and was widely rejected by historically marginalised groups, including Madhesis, Janajatis, women’s activists, Dalits and religious minorities, who see it as violating repeated commitments to an inclusive and progressive state made during Nepal’s peacebuilding process and instead maintaining the old power order.

An exclusionary process

The exclusionary process by which the constitution was developed caused great anger. The leadership of the three main parties did the deal, with minimal consultation within their own parties or with other parties. Because this was a ‘fast-track’ process, there was minimal time for public consultation and also insufficient time for CA members to read and debate the draft. In addition, public consultation processes in the Tarai were heavily policed, which meant that many Madhesis and Tharus stayed away.

Hence, after the significant efforts made to ensure an inclusive CA and the lengthy negotiations over how to build a more inclusive state, the constitutional deal was ultimately done in an untransparent way by a small group of party elites that represented traditional power inter- ests and ignored the demands of identity groups. Identity groups were particularly bitter that the Maoists had joined with the NC and UML to drive through the new constitution. As Strasheim and Bogati (2016: 6) describe,
The Madhesi and Tharu communities – which fought in the Maoists’ People’s War in the hope that identity- based federalism would be the outcome of a Maoist victory – also perceive the Maoists’ acceptance of the geographical division of federal units under the new constitution as a major betrayal. They feel abandoned by their representatives in the capital.

Exclusionary content

Despite its limitations, the 2015 constitution is in many ways a progressive document. For example, it advances women’s rights in several areas and recognises LGBT rights. However, it fundamentally fails to address the structural discrimination experienced by ethnic and indigenous groups or meet their core demands for an inclusive Nepali state.

Most fundamentally, the new constitution provides for geographically based federalism, not identity-based federalism, dashing ethnic and indigenous groups’ hopes “that identity-based federalism would expand their political representation … and that upper-caste elites within identity-based federal units would inevitably have to cede some power to minorities and give Madhesis, Tharus, and Janajatis majority rule over some provinces” (Strasheim & Bogati, 2016: 7).

Particularly contentious is the fact that the Tarai is divided across all provinces – effectively carving up both Madhesi and Tharu ancestral lands – with only one state being plains-dominated. Likewise, the traditional lands of large indigenous groups such as the Magar and Gurung have also been divided among provinces. Madhesi and Janajati groups see this as an attempt to reduce their influence on future state- and provincial-level politics and to further the interests of local political and economic elites.

Beyond the core issue of the delineation of federal provinces, there was anger over the delineation of constituencies, which Madhesi parties claim do not reflect population densities. Ethnic and indigenous groups were also angry at the reduction in the PR element of the electoral system, which has been decreased from 60% to 40%, reducing the opportunities for marginalised groups to be elected. Also, they are frustrated at the dilution of commitments to affirmative action to increase representation in state organs, as well as at secularism provisions that religious minorities argue cement the primacy of Hinduism, e.g. by privileging religion that has been “practiced since ancient times” and banning religious conversion. According to Ghale (2015),

the high caste rulers in Kathmandu forcibly brought Janajati communities under the Hindu caste system, and then used this as a source of legitimacy to exploit them. Partly as a way of escaping poverty and caste discrimination, many Janajatis … converted to Christianity. The ban on religious conversion will almost certainly … lead to the persecution of converts to Christianity, many of whom belong to highly disadvantaged groups.

Women activists and Madhesis have rejected the citizen- ship provisions of the new constitution that discriminate against all women in passing citizenship to their children, but are particularly aimed at the Madhesi community, who frequently marry Indian citizens; these provisions demonstrate the state’s fears about Madhesi-Indian ties.

Reaction and protest

The drawing up and passing of the new constitution was accompanied by deadly protests by Madhesi and Tharu groups across the Tarai that continued for months, leaving 57 dead and reportedly resulting in backlashes that forced thousands of Tharus to flee their homes (ICG, 2016). The protests had deep support within these communities and reflected their increasing sense of alienation from the state. The response of Nepal’s political leaders was highly securitised and involved an excessive use of force that only increased resentment against the Nepali state.

Following the passing of the constitution, Madhesi groups undertook a 135-day blockade of the Nepal-India border with the tacit support of India, which has close ties with the Madhesi population and is generally supportive of their demands, and which was unhappy with both the process and content of the constitution. Given Nepal’s dependence on imports from India, this blockade had very serious consequences, limiting supplies of fuel, basic goods and post-earthquake reconstruction materials. It seriously affected Nepal’s economy, hitting the poorest particularly hard and exacerbating humanitarian challenges. Not only did the blockade demonstrate the deep anger among the Madhesi population, but also highlighted Nepal’s extreme political and economic weakness.

In he face of the protests and blockade, political leaders from the main parties held some talks with ethnic leaders, but remained resistant to their demands. However, in January 2016 the major parties unilaterally passed two constitutional amendments related to more inclusive representation in state organs and the delineation of constituencies. However, these were rejected by Madhesi parties and protestors who wanted a much deeper revision of the new constitution and who saw these amendments as illegitimate, because they were not based on consultation. The blockade of the border ended in February 2016, with the population tired and disillusioned, but the core issues remained unresolved.

Following months with little progress, in November 2016 the Nepali government, which since August 2016 has been led by the Maoists, proposed constitutional amendments to partially address the demands of dissenting Madhesi parties. This proposal alters provincial borders to create two provinces made up only of Tarai districts, provides that representation in the upper house is based partly on population share, and modifies citizenship laws to grant naturalised citizenship to non-Nepali women who marry Nepali men. This goes some way to meeting Madhesi demands, although still leaves significant areas unaddressed and is unlikely to be enough to reduce high levels of distrust and polarisation. However, since then there has been little progress on these constitutional amendments, with mainstream parties arguing that local elections should be held before amendments are passed and Madhesi parties demanding amendments as a prerequisite for such elections. Meanwhile, Madhesi leaders continue to mobilise mass demonstrations in the Tarai.

International actors

In the first years following the conflict international actors in Nepal actively championed inclusion and identity issues, frequently integrating these into political dialogue with leaders and the support they gave to peacebuilding and reform processes. Nepal’s donors provided significant support to marginalised groups, including women, Dalits, Janajatis, and Madhesis aimed at building their capacity for mobilisation and participation in peacebuilding processes, and strengthening their access to state institutions and services. Many donors included exclusion issues into their programming frameworks and encouraged government institutions to do the same. Indeed a “gender equality and social inclusion” (GESI) lens is now widely adopted across Nepal’s government structures and donors, although this is often more lip service than a real effort to address unequal power relations.7

This donor emphasis on exclusion prompted a backlash from Nepal’s elite. Since the end of the first CA in 2012 successive governments and the bureaucracy in Nepal have used arguments about donor interference and the imposition of Western values to push back against donor engagement on identity and exclusion issues. As Interna- tional IDEA (2015: 36) states,

[donors] were criticized by some political parties for “creating friction between castes and communities”. However, a constitutional expert from Nepal justified this saying, “The international community should be credited for empowering the marginalized communities. The criticism came from the ruling elites because they were not happy that the status quo was challenged.”

Indeed, this was part of a broader trend in which the Nepali establishment pushed back against donor pressure on a range of normative issues, including transparency and accountability, human rights, and transitional justice, and sought to limit donor engagement to more traditional development domains.

As a result, in recent years donors have had less space to engage on identity and exclusion or to support marginal- ised communities. As Neelakantan et al. (2016:10) argue,

from 2006 to 2012, international donor partners referred heavily to the language of social inclusion and targeted programming for historically marginalised communities and regions …. [but] some donor projects aimed at inclusion and federalism came to be heavily criticised by parts of Nepal’s traditional establishment for having stoked ethnic sentiment or promoted ethnic federalism, and donors subsequently backed away from the inclusion agenda …. Inclusion is dismissed as one of a number of “progressive” agendas being pushed by donors.

In the face of this resistance from political elites, Nepal’s donors have been largely reluctant to continue championing identity, exclusion and rights issues, and have instead prioritised maintaining good relations with the government.

When the three main parties announced their plans for the new constitution in 2015, international actors in Nepal were largely supportive. This was both because they wanted to avoid further accusations of meddling, and because they were frustrated by the lack of progress in the CA and recognised the pressing need to end the lengthy constitutional process and concentrate on other priorities. As the protests grew, international actors began to raise concerns that marginalised groups must be given buy-in to the process and that speed must not be prioritised over legitimacy. However, the International Crisis Group reports that diplomatic efforts to raise these concerns were overly cautious and poorly coordinated (ICG, 2016). While Nepal’s donors could undoubtedly have engaged more consistently on issues of identity and exclusion, as well as intervened more effectively around the 2015 constitutional process, it is important to recog- nise that they have relatively limited influence, their agendas can easily be dismissed as interference, and their actions are unlikely to result in significant changes being made.

By far the most important external actors in Nepal are China and India, who compete for influence in the country. India – which has extensive influence in Nepali affairs and has at various points blocked progress on peacebuilding – wanted a constitution that addressed Madhesi concerns and pressed Nepali leaders to deliver this. India’s support for the border blockade demonstrates its frustration that Nepal’s leaders had rejected its requests. Meanwhile China – whose influence in Nepal is less than India’s, but is growing rapidly through expanding aid and investment – does not want identity- based federalism, because it is concerned that such identity agendas could spill over into Tibet. While neither of these countries can dictate to Nepali leaders, as Strasheim and Bogati (2016: 8) argue, “The influence of both regional powers can be regarded as affecting the opportunity structure of the state and of the Tarai protesters by further deepening already existing divisions and contributing to the polarisation of the debate within Nepal”.

Conclusion

The increasingly hardline identity-based movement in the Tarai could pose a serious threat to stability in Nepal. It is critical that the deep grievances of marginalised communities – notably the Madhesis and Tharus, but also others that have been less vocal – are meaningfully addressed, while bearing in mind legitimate concerns about indi- vidual rights and national unity.

The recent proposal of several constitutional amend- ments may offer a chance for progress, although it is not yet clear where this will lead. What is clear is that any future efforts to address the demands of the Madhesis and Tharus should be based on political dialogue that includes these and other marginalised groups. Such inclusive dialogue has so far been sorely lacking and its absence has fueled divisions and tensions. As Strasheim and Bogati (2016: 8) describe,

At first glance, the federalist debate in Nepal appears to be deadlocked particularly due to substantive differences about whether federal units should be delineated according to geography or identity; however, to a large extent it is also the manner in which the federalist laws have been introduced that has driven the recent violence.

Nepal is at a critical juncture, and responding to the range of challenges that it faces will require international donors to act together in a more coordinated and effective way, become more politically engaged, strengthen their engagement on exclusion issues, and push back against government efforts to limit their activities to traditional “development” agendas. They must also ensure that the CPA and other past commitments – which were agreed by all actors and underpin Nepal’s peace – are the basis for all donor engagement. One pressing challenge is post-earthquake reconstruction, which is just beginning, and which has the potential to deepen inequality and divisions if it is badly managed. It is critical that donors are conflict and inclusion sensitive in their support for earthquake reconstruction.

The deadline for the implementation of Nepal’s constitution is January 2018, although local elections are required to be held earlier. However, holding local elections or moving ahead with the implementation of the constitution – particularly the provisions around federal restructuring – without some agreement on how to resolve Madhesi and Tharu demands threatens the risk of serious violence. Nepal’s donors, who will be expected to provide significant funding for elections and for the reforms required by the constitution, must insist that such an agreement is in place before implementation begins and that marginalised identity groups can meaningfully participate in shaping the next phase of peacebuilding and statebuilding in Nepal.

About the author:
*Clare Castillejo
is a research associate at the Overseas Development Institute. She specialises in governance and rights in fragile states, with a particular interest in inclusive peacebuilding and statebuilding, and has worked with donors, UN agencies, think tanks, and NGOs on a range of conflict- and peacebuilding-related issues. Her main areas of expertise are South Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. She has an MA in the anthropology of development from the University of London.

Source:
This article was published by NOREF (PDF)

References:
Anaya, J. 2009. Report by the Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms of Indigenous People, James Anaya: Report on the Situation of the Indigenous Peoples in Nepal. United Nations General Assembly, Human Rights Council. Geneva: United Nations.
Cats-Baril, A. 2014. “Ensuring inclusive democracy for Nepal: indigenous peoples’ case for ‘direct representa- tion’ in political processes.” In B. Ed Karki & R. Edrisinha, eds. Participatory Constitution Making in Nepal: Issues of Process and Substance. Nepal: UNDP.
CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement). 2006. Compre- hensive Peace Agreement between the Government of Nepal and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).
Ghale, S. 2015. “Why Nepal’s Janajatis feel betrayed by the new constitution.” ConstitutionNet. Stockholm: International IDEA.
Guinée, N. 2014. Inclusive Constitution Building: Identifying Common Ground through Political Dialogues on Contentious Constitutional Issues and Indigenous Peoples’ Concerns in Nepal. Stockholm: International IDEA and Nepal Federa- tion of Indigenous Nationalities.
CG (International Crisis Group). 2011. Nepal: Identity Poli- tics and Federalism. Asia Report no. 199. Brussels: ICG.
ICG. 2016. Nepal’s Divisive New Constitution: An Existential Crisis. Asia Report no. 276. Brussels: ICG.
International IDEA. 2015. Nepal’s Constitution Building Process: 2006-2015 Progress, Challenges, and Contribu- tions of International Community. Stockholm: International IDEA.
Kelles-Viitanen, A. & A. Shrestha. 2011. Gender Equality and Social Inclusion: Promoting the Rights of Women and the Excluded for Sustained Peace and Inclusive Develop- ment. Kathmandu: United Nations.
Neelakantan, A. et al. 2016. Peace, Power and Inclusive Change in Nepal: Political Settlements in Practice. London: Conciliation Resources.
Strasheim, J. & S. Bogati. 2016. Nepal’s Quest for Federal- ism: A Driver of New Violence. GIGA Focus Asia. Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

Notes:
1 Hindus considered “untouchable” by upper-caste groups.
2 For example, calling for the end of ethnic discrimination, a secular state, the equality of languages and regional autonomy.
3 The Tharus are an indigenous people of the Tarai plains who have faced significant historical discrimination from hill-based elites. Like the other major Tarai population, the Madhesis (caste-based Hindus and Muslims with links to India), the Tharus have strongly resisted federal structures that would divide up the Tarai across various geographic units, thereby reducing the political autonomy and influence of Tarai populations.
4 It is important to note that there were limits to the inclusivity of the first CA. It was mostly elite members of excluded groups (e.g. high-caste, male, etc.) that were included, and some doubly discriminated-against populations such as Janajati women were largely left out. In addition, of the 59 recognised Janajati communities, 29 were not represented in the CA (Guinée, 2015).
5 Currently, Brahmin and Chhetri caste groups constitute close to 90% of all judges in the country (Guinée, 2015). The new judges recommended for the High Court in January 2017 demonstrate that the principles of inclusivity and proportional representation continue to be overlooked in judicial appointments.
6 Led mostly by breakaway indigenous UML members.
7 For a discussion of how GESI is understood in the Nepali context and how it is integrated into government policies, see Kelles-Viitanen and Shrestha (2011).

Trump Administration Following In Obama Administration’s Footsteps On Marijuana – OpEd

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Last month, United States Attorney General Jeff Sessions sent a letter to congressional leaders urging them to oppose Congress again including in Department of Justice appropriations legislation a provision intended to stop, through a restriction on the use of appropriated money, the US government from arresting and prosecuting people for actions that comply with state medical marijuana laws, even if those actions violate US drug laws. Some people are reacting to Sessions’ letter, which was revealed this week, with condemnation of Sessions and the Trump administration for departing from Obama administration policy that showed increased leniency in regard to marijuana. But this claim appears to misrepresent the Obama administration’s marijuana history.

Tom Angell, who revealed the Sessions letter in a Monday article at MassRoots, suggests that Sessions’ request is consistent with the position under the Obama administration given that President Barack Obama, in his last two budget requests, suggested Congress remove the medical marijuana language. Indeed, Sessions pretty much makes this same observation that he is continuing the prior administration’s policy in the first sentence of his letter to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-NY), House or Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Sessions starts the letter as follows: “I write to renew the Department of Justice’s opposition to the inclusion of language in any appropriations legislation that would prohibit the use of Department of Justice funds or in any way inhibit its authority to enforce the Controlled Substances Act (CSA).”

Further, Obama administration Justice Department lawyers, after the appropriations provision was in effect, defended in the Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals case of United States v. McIntosh ignoring, in ten separate drug law cases that had been consolidated for review on appeal, whether defendants complied with state medical marijuana laws. In each case, the individuals were being prosecuted for actions that they argued complied with state medical marijuana laws. The Obama administration lost the argument in the appellate court, with the court deciding in August of 2016 that the appropriations provision “prohibits DOJ from spending funds from relevant appropriations acts for the prosecution of individuals who engage in conduct permitted by the State Medical Marijuana Laws and who fully complied with such laws.” The court decision, in addition, ordered that, if the US government should decide to proceed with prosecution of any appellants, those appellants “are entitled to evidentiary hearings to determine whether their conduct was completely authorized by state law.”

While the Ninth Circuit decision interprets the medical marijuana appropriations provision as providing protection for people complying with state medical marijuana laws, that decision does not help people who live in the states outside that judicial circuit. Also, as I noted in an article shortly after the McIntosh decision was announced, the DOJ argument for a reading of the appropriations language that would mean the provision provides little to no protection from prosecution is rather persuasive and could be accepted by other courts. The appropriations provision also provides no hope for protection for anyone anywhere who is dealing with recreational instead of medical marijuana or for anyone living in one of the states that has not liberalized medical marijuana laws.

Though the Obama administration backed off some in prosecutions of individuals acting in compliance with state laws concerning marijuana that over the past few years have been increasingly liberalized, that did not mean that the Obama administration wanted to subject itself to any additional restraints imposed by the legislative branch. Instead, the Obama administration preferred to design its own restraints via Department of Justice memoranda. These memoranda culminated in the August 29, 2013 Cole memorandum that directs DOJ lawyers to limit their prosecutions of people who are complying with liberalized state medical and recreational marijuana laws. But, the Cole memorandum also provides several exceptions that prosecutors can use to justify cases against individuals who are complying with state laws. In addition, the Cole memorandum and other Justice Department memoranda are just advisory for government employees (unlike a statute that could be enforceable as law to the benefit of defendants) and can be revoked or amended by subsequent DOJ memos.

Sessions has indicated a general support for the Cole memorandum’s policies, stating the following in a March 15 questions and answers with reporters: “The Cole memorandum set up some policies under President Obama’s Department of Justice about how cases should be selected in those states and what would be appropriate for federal prosecution, much of which I think is valid.” Yet, there is no guarantee that the wiggle room the Cole memorandum provides for prosecutions will be used the same in the Trump administration as it was in the Obama administration or that the DOJ will not come out with a new memorandum that keeps much of the Cole memorandum policies while also creating significant changes in DOJ policies related to people complying with state marijuana laws.

If you want to ensure people who grow, sell, use, or otherwise deal with marijuana are not arrested, prosecuted, and imprisoned by the US government, then both the appropriations medical marijuana provision and the Cole memorandum fall far short of accomplishing the goal. What is needed is for Congress to pass legislation ending the war on marijuana. Leave marijuana laws to the states. Just walk away from the war.

States are steadily developing a patchwork quilt of differing marijuana laws, with full prohibition becoming increasingly rare. Meanwhile, the majority of Americans favor legal recreational marijuana, and significantly more favor legal medical marijuana. The US government’s war on marijuana is increasingly becoming the odd man out. Despite the evident lack of will among congressional leaders to challenge the war on marijuana, increasing pressure, contributed to by changes in state and local governments’ law as well as public opinion, may soon succeed in emboldening Congress so it will approve legislation that ends the US government’s war on marijuana.

Published by RonPaul Institute.

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