The hottest point on a gaseous planet near a distant star isn’t where astrophysicists expected it to be – a discovery that challenges scientists’ understanding of the many planets of this type found in solar systems outside our own.

Unlike our familiar planet Jupiter, so-called hot Jupiters circle astonishingly close to their host star — so close that it typically takes fewer than three days to complete an orbit. And one hemisphere of these planets always faces its host star, while the other faces permanently out into the dark.

Not surprisingly, the “day” side of the planets gets vastly hotter than the night side, and the hottest point of all tends to be the spot closest to the star. Astrophysicists theorize and observe that these planets also experience strong winds blowing eastward near their equators, which can sometimes displace the hot spot toward the east.

In the mysterious case of exoplanet CoRoT-2b, however, the hot spot turns out to lie in the opposite direction: west of center. A research team led by astronomers at McGill University’s McGill Space Institute (MSI) and the Institute for research on exoplanets (iREx) in Montreal made the discovery using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope. Their findings are reported Jan. 22 in the journal Nature Astronomy.

Wrong-way wind

“We’ve previously studied nine other hot Jupiter, giant planets orbiting super close to their star. In every case, they have had winds blowing to the east, as theory would predict,” said McGill astronomer Nicolas Cowan, a co-author on the study and researcher at MSI and iREx. “But now, nature has thrown us a curveball. On this planet, the wind blows the wrong way. Since it’s often the exceptions that prove the rule, we are hoping that studying this planet will help us understand what makes hot Jupiters tick.”

CoRoT-2b, discovered a decade ago by a French-led space observatory mission, is 930 light years from Earth. While many other hot Jupiters have been detected in recent years, CoRoT-2b has continued to intrigue astronomers because of two factors: its inflated size and the puzzling spectrum of light emissions from its surface.

“Both of these factors suggest there is something unusual happening in the atmosphere of this hot Jupiter,” said Lisa Dang, a McGill PhD student and lead author of the new study. By using Spitzer’s Infrared Array Camera to observe the planet while it completed an orbit around its host star, the researchers were able to map the planet’s surface brightness for the first time, revealing the westward hot spot.

New questions

The researchers offer three possible explanations for the unexpected discovery – each of which raises new questions:

• The planet could be spinning so slowly that one rotation takes longer than a full orbit of its star; this could create winds blowing toward the west rather than the east – but it would also undercut theories about planet-star gravitational interaction in such tight orbits.
• The planet’s atmosphere could be interacting with the planet’s magnetic field to modify its wind pattern; this could provide a rare opportunity to study an exoplanet’s magnetic field.
• Large clouds covering the eastern side of the planet could make it appear darker than it would otherwise – but this would undercut current models of atmospheric circulation on such planets.

“We’ll need better data to shed light on the questions raised by our finding,” Dang said. “Fortunately, the James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled to launch next year, should be capable of tackling this problem. Armed with a mirror that has 100 times the collecting power of Spitzer’s, it should provide us with exquisite data like never before.”

By Rodolfo C. Estimo Jr

The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the World Bank are to use the rapidly growing Islamic finance market for infrastructure development projects through public-private partnerships (PPP).

The IDB recently organized a forum in Washington in partnership with the World Bank on this subject, IDB spokesperson Dr. Abdul-Hakim Elwaer told Arab News on Sunday.
IDB Vice President Dr. Mansur Muhtar represented IDB President Dr. Bandar Hajjar during the forum attended by IDB member countries.

“The IDB, in partnership with the World Bank, will work to unlock the potential of the $1.9 trillion Islamic finance market to mobilize resources for infrastructure development projects using public-private partnership (PPP),” Muhtar told the forum.

The IDB vice president made the statement based on a report, “Mobilizing Islamic Finance for Infrastructure-Public Private Partnership,” which was funded by the Jeddah-based development bank.

The World Bank suggested that the Islamic financial market has reached $1.9 trillion over the past six decades.

Elwaer said the aim of the forum was to create awareness about the potential for infrastructure development through PPP, especially in developing countries.

“This falls in line with the new development orientations of IDB member countries including Saudi Arabia, whose ambitious 2030 plan is targeting to increase the private sector’s contribution to the GDP (gross domestic product) from 40 to 65 percent,” he said.

He said the Kingdom aims to achieve this through increasing the use of PPPs and through the privatization of government entities.

Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, World Bank senior vice president on sustainable development goals, said: “One of the advantages that the IDB has in using Islamic finance is localization.

“The IDB has worked in many villages in its areas of operation, and has always demonstrated how localization helps in benefiting from Islamic finance.”

Researchers from the University of Valladolid (Spain) have created a computer model based on neural networks which provides in which Spanish provinces cases of corruption can appear with greater probability, as well as the conditions that favor their appearance. This alert system confirms that the probabilities increase when the same party stays in government more years.

Two researchers from the University of Valladolid have developed a model with artificial neural networks to predict in which Spanish provinces corruption cases could appear with more probability, after one, two and up to three years.

The study, published in Social Indicators Research, does not mention the provinces most prone to corruption so as not to generate controversy, explains one of the authors, Ivan Pastor, to Sinc, who recalls that, in any case, “a greater propensity or high probability does not imply corruption will actually happen.”

The data indicate that the real estate tax (Impuesto de Bienes Inmuebles), the exaggerated increase in the price of housing, the opening of bank branches and the creation of new companies are some of the variables that seem to induce public corruption, and when they are added together in a region, it should be taken into account to carry out a more rigorous control of the public accounts.

“In addition, as might be expected, our model confirms that the increase in the number of years in the government of the same political party increases the chances of corruption, regardless of whether or not the party governs with majority,” said Pastor.

“Anyway, fortunately – he adds -, for the next years this alert system predicts less indications of corruption in our country. This is mainly due to the greater public pressure on this issue and to the fact that the economic situation has worsened significantly during the crisis”.

To carry out the study, the authors have relied on all cases of corruption that appeared in Spain between 2000 and 2012, such as the Mercasevilla case (in which the managers of this public company of the Seville City Council were charged) and the Baltar case (in which the president of the Diputación de Ourense was sentenced for more than a hundred contracts “that did not complied with the legal requirements”).

The collection and analysis of all this information has been done with neural networks, which show the most predictive factors of corruption. “The use of this AI technique is novel, as well as that of a database of real cases, since until now more or less subjective indexes of perception of corruption were used, scorings assigned to each country by agencies such as Transparency International, based on surveys of businessmen and national analysts”, highlighted Pastor.

The authors hope that this study will contribute to better direct efforts to end corruption, focusing the efforts on those areas with the greatest propensity to appear, as well as continuing to move forward to apply their model internationally.

Reactions are rolling in after the FBI reportedly lost five months of text messages between staffers who worked on probes into Hillary Clinton’s emails and alleged collusion between Russia and Donald Trump’s campaign.

News of the reportedly ‘lost emails’ broke after Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, Chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, wrote in a January 20 letter that the FBI’s technical system had failed to preserve texts sent between two staffers. The texts were exchanged by lawyer-agent Peter Stroz and lawyer Lisa Page, his mistress, in the period December 14, 2016 to May 17, 2017.

Previous exchanges between Stroz and Page, originally obtained by Fox News, referred to Trump as an “idiot” and “loathsome human.”

Its release sparked suspicions of the FBI’s bias against Trump and preferential treatment of Clinton after the Bureau decided not to recommend criminal charges for her use of a personal email account while serving as secretary of state.

Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, sarcastically referred to the missing texts as a “weird coincidence.” He further noted the significance of the missing text messaging period ending on May 17 – the same day Special Counsel Robert Mueller was appointed to take over the FBI’s probe of possible collusion between Trump’s campaign and Moscow.

Another person tweeted the missing texts are a “convenient accident,” citing other important information that have gone ‘missing’ while in the possession of the US government.

Rep. Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, used the information to urge for a second special counsel for the investigation. “First the IRS destroyed emails pivotal to our investigation of their political targeting. Now the FBI ‘failed to preserve’ texts between Peter Strzok & Lisa Page following the ’16 election. The time for a second special counsel is now,” he wrote.

That sentiment was echoed by Mark Meadows, a Republican representative from North Carolina. “Unreal… If it wasn’t already clear we need a second special counsel, it’s abundantly clear now,” he tweeted.

Another posted on Twitter that the “texts are out there somewhere,” pointing out that the National Security Agency (NSA) “records every phone call, email, and text.”

The integrity of Mueller’s investigation team has been questioned numerous times, as many of his prosecutors have reportedly made campaign contributions to Clinton and other Democratic candidates. Reports also emerged in December that investigator Andrew Weissmann attended Clinton’s election-night party in New York City.

Down’s syndrome – also known as trisomy 21 – is a genetic disorder caused by an additional third chromosome 21. Although this genetic abnormality is found in one out of 700 births, only 20% of foetuses with trisomy 21 reach full term. But how do they manage to survive the first trimester of pregnancy despite this heavy handicap?

Researchers from the Universities of Geneva (UNIGE) and Lausanne (UNIL) have found that children born with Down’s syndrome have an excellent genome – better, in fact, than the average genome of people without the genetic abnormality. It is possible that this genome offsets the disabilities caused by the extra chromosome, helping the foetus to survive and the child to grow and develop.

Trisomy 21 is a serious genetic disorder, with four pregnancies out of five not reaching term naturally if the foetus is affected. However, 20% of conceptuses with Down’s syndrome are born live, grow up and can reach the age of 65. How is this possible? Researchers from UNIGE and UNIL hypothesised that individuals born with Down’s syndrome possess a high quality genome that has the ability to compensate for the effects of the third chromosome 21.

Variation, regulation and expression all tested

“The genome consists of all the genetic material that makes up an individual,” said Stylianos Antonarakis, the honorary professor in UNIGE’s Faculty of Medicine who led the research. “It’s the genome that determines what becomes of a person, and makes him or her grow up and grow old, with or without disease. Some genomes are of better quality than others, and can also be less exposed to illnesses such as cancer.”

Basing their work on the hypothesis of a the quality of the genome, the geneticists tested the gene variation, regulation and expression of 380 individuals with Down’s syndrome and compared them to people without the genetic disorder.

The first test consisted of observing the presence of rare variants, i.e. potentially harmful genetic mutations, in people with Down’s. It is known that the a chromosome can have different rare variants in its two copies. In a person with Down’s, however, the rare mutations that are identical for all three copies of chromosome 21 and limited in number, thereby reducing the total of potentially deleterious variants.

In a next step the geneticists have studied the regulation of genes on chromosome 21. Each gene has switches that regulate its expression either positively or negatively. Since people with Down’s have three chromosomes 21, most of these genes are overexpressed.

“But we discovered that people with Down syndrome have more regulators that diminish the expression of the 21 genes, making it possible to compensate for the surplus induced by the third copy,” said Konstantin Popadin, a researcher at UNIL’s Center for Integrative Genomics.

Finally, the researchers focused on the variation gene expression for the chromosomes of the entire genome. Each gene expression on a scale from 0 to 100 forms part of a global spread curve, with the median – 50 – considered the ideal expression.

“For a normal genome, the expressions oscillate between 30 and 70, while for a person with Down’s syndrome, the curve is narrower around the peak that is very close to 50 for genes on all the chromosomes,” said Professor Antonarakis. “In other words, this means that the genome of someone with Down’s leans towards the average – optimal functioning.” Indeed, the smaller the gene expression variations are, the better the genome.

A superior genome that compensates for the disability

The UNIGE and UNIL geneticists were thus able to test the three functions of genomes of people suffering from Down’s syndrome.

“The research has shown that for a child with Down’s to survive pregnancy and then grow, his or her genome must be of a higher quality so that it can compensate for the disabilities caused by the extra copy of chromosome 21”, said Popadin.

These conclusions may also apply to other serious genetic disorders where pregnancies reach full term.

Hascol Petroleum Limited is the second largest oil marketing company of Pakistan engaged in the storage and sale of petroleum products, as well as FUCHS lubricants. The company was granted an oil marketing license by the Government of Pakistan in February 2005 and since then it has been engaged in developing a retail network under Hascol brand and have commissioned over 490 retail outlets in the four provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Hascol has become a member of the listed companies of Pakistan Stock Exchange and its share price has appreciated considerably since its listing in 2014, keeping in pace with the phenomenal growth of the company. This massive growth has been made possible due to the strategic vision of the Board and excellent execution by Senior Management.

Hascol has made major headway in constructing storage facilities at Keamari, Daulatpur, Shikarpur, Mehmood Kot, Sahiwal, Machike and Amangarh. New storage facilities are planned for Kotlajam and Thalian. In 2016 Vitol, the largest independent oil trading entity in the world, had taken 15% equity in Hascol and has now exercised the option to take 10% more, taking its shareholding to 25%. This will make Vitol the single largest shareholder in the company.

Hascol has set up an LNG marketing company VAS LNG (Pvt.) Limited in a joint-venture with Vitol. Hascol will have a 30% stake in this company and Vitol 70%. Hascol has also signed a Technical Services Agreement with Vitol Aviation. This will enable Hascol to start fuelling aircrafts at Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad airports in the country. A new joint venture company, Hascol Terminals Limited, has also been set up with Vitol and it is planned to have 200,000 tons storage capacity at Port Qasim, near Karachi. Hascol had received a credit rating of ‘A+/A-1’ (Single A Plus /A-One) from JCR-VIS Credit Company Limited in 2016. JCR-VIS Credit Rating Company Limited (JCR-VIS) has upgraded the entity ratings of Hascol Petroleum Limited (HPL) to ‘AA-/A-1’ (Double A Minus/A-One) from ‘A+/A-1’ (Single A Plus/A-One). Rating of Hascol’s secured Sukuk issue of Rs2 billion has also been upgraded to ‘AA’ (Double A) from AA- (Double A Minus). Outlook on the assigned ratings is ‘Stable’.

Mumtaz Hasan Khan, Chairman of Hascol Petroleum has over 54 year experience in the oil industry. He started his professional life in Burmah Shell oil storage and distribution company in May 1963 and worked there till January 1976, where his last assignment was International Sales Manager. From February 1976 to July 1980 he served as Managing Director, Pakistan Services Limited, which was the owning company of four Intercontinental Hotels in Pakistan. In August 1980 he moved to London to start his own oil trading business and established Hascombe Limited, which started trading in crude oil and petroleum products and was a major supplier of petroleum products to Pakistan in the 1990’s. Hascombe bought crude and products from Middle Eastern sources and sold to major international trading companies like Shell and Elf. Under his leadership Hascol has been granted an oil marketing license in 2005 by the Government of Pakistan. He is also a Trustee of the Foundation of Museum of Modern Art (FOMMA) and is on the Board of Pakistan Refinery Limited. Khan was a member of the Expert Energy Group which prepared the Country’s first Integrated Energy Plan in 2009. Following are the excerpts from an exclusive interview with Mumtaz Hassan Khan (MHK).

Tell us briefly the success story of Hascol.

MHK: I thank Almighty Allah for the success of the company, which has a very brief but eventful history. As of today Hascol enjoys the status of second largest oil marketing company of Pakistan that control nearly 11% of the total market share. It also has the second largest storage capacity after state owned Pakistan State Oil Company (PSO).

The number of our outlets is inching close to 500 with the largest number of outlets located in Punjab, followed by Sindh. We are in the process of establishing Hascol Terminal that will have 200,000 tons storage capacity at Port Bin Qasim. It is estimated that the terminal would be 50% ready by July next year.

Why has Pakistan not been able to construct strategic reserves storage facility?

MHK: Over the years, planners have not been able to come up with ‘downstream’ policy that governs supply chain. Ideally Pakistan should have minimum 45 days strategic reserve facilities but at present not even 20 days requirement can be stored. In my humble opinion construction of strategic reserve storage facility is the responsibility of the government. It is neither feasible nor economical for oil marketing companies to construct such huge facilities. Whatever limited facilities exist, these are owned by oil marketing companies. It is high time the Government of Pakistan come up with appropriate policies and incentives that can improve efficiency of the entire supply chain and increase storage infrastructure.

Will deregulation of pricing facilitate in improving the performance of oil marketing companies?

MHK: The Government has partially deregulated oil pricing system and it is expected that oil marketing companies will be given the complete liberty to fix the prices of POL products. Interestingly, all the products are imported as per the specification announced by the Government. The unloading from ships just can’t be done unless the representative of Hydrocarbon Institute certifies that the product is as per the specifications.

Having said that I will stress that Ministry of Petroleum has not set any standard for manganese and there could be some difference in the specifications of products being sold by various oil marketing companies.

It is often said that prices of locally produced refineries are high as compared to the imported one. What could be the possible reasons?

MHK: Without mincing words, I would say that refineries operating in Pakistan are based on technologies of sixties. At the best these could be termed simple distillation units and produce the largest quantity of furnace oil. In the international markets, furnace oil is often sold below the price of crude oil. Therefore, government has to give subsidy to the refineries to make them profitable. PARCO is establishing now a state of the art refinery at Khalifa point, which will have zero output of furnace oil.

Pakistan needs to have two more refineries of 300,000 barrels per day each. Other refineries will have to undertake BMR to remain competitive. I will refer to quote our own example, 80% of total products sold are imported and only 20% is procured locally.

How can Pakistan attract foreign investment in refining industry?

MHK: The Government has been offering incentives to industries like textiles and clothing, fertilizer and sugar but hardly any incentive is offered to downstream oil industry. To establish a modern refinery of 300,000 barrel per day over US$6 billion are required. Therefore, the sponsors need certain sovereign guarantees. The sponsors are not asking for any extra favor but demanding the incentives being offered to independent power plants (IPPs).

The other point that does not encourage investors to establish refineries in Pakistan is the circular debt menace. However, it is necessary to point out that the largest amount of circular debt pertains to furnace oil. The recent exercise of transferring power generation to LNG has helped the Government in saving millions of dollars. However, closing down oil fired power plants is not advisable. Switching to an alternative fuel needs money and time and you need share capacity in case of supply disruptions.

Can POL products be exported from Pakistan?

MHK: Let us be very clear that Pakistan is a net importer of many POL products and will continue to be net importer for a long time. While the country produces exportable surplus of some products like Naphtha, their export are limited.

At the best Pakistan can export some products to Afghanistan but due to law and order problems the potential has not been exploited as yet. Pakistan can only export POL to neighboring countries once we have surplus refining capacity. This can’t be achieved without establishing refineries based on the most modern technology. Therefore, I suggest the Government to come up with incentive laden policy for downstream oil companies.

Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, welcomed participants to the 48th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, telling them they are here because they are part of a community, the foremost multistakeholder community in the world.

“No stakeholder group alone, however, can address the complex global agenda in a constructive way,” Schwab said.

Following his remarks, Hilde Schwab, Chairwoman and Co-Founder of the World Arts Forum, presented three outstanding cultural leaders with the 24th Annual Crystal Awards. The awards celebrate the achievements of leading artists who are bridge-builders and role models for all leaders of society.

“The awards stand for leadership, vision and compassion,” she said. “It honours personalities not just for their art, but also for their values.”

Crystal awardees are part of a community of 40 cultural leaders in Davos “creating a shared future in a fractured world”. Learn more here.

The 2018 recipients of the Crystal Awards are Cate Blanchett, Sir Elton John and Shah Rukh Khan.

Cate Blanchett, for her leadership in raising awareness of the refugee crisis

Cate Blanchett is an internationally acclaimed award-winning actor and director on both stage and screen. In 2016, she was appointed a UNHCR Global Goodwill Ambassador in recognition of her work with refugees. “I am deeply grateful for the recognition the Crystal Award gives to the scale and severity of the global refugee crisis, along with the acknowledgement that we all have a stake in identifying and enacting solutions,” she said. “I feel if I can use my position, and any platform I may have access to, to bring the spotlight back to the individual human stories of refugees, then I am duty-bound to do so.” She also asked participants to be directed by a reinvigorated moral compass.

Sir Elton John, for his leadership in the fight against HIV/AIDS

Sir Elton John is one of the world’s most successful musical solo artists, whose career has spanned more than five decades. In 1992, he established the Elton John AIDS Foundation (EJAW), which has raised more than $400 million to date to support hundreds of HIV/AIDS prevention, service and advocacy programmes around the world. “Today, there are 20 million people the world over who are on life-saving HIV treatment. We have made such progress that ending AIDS by 2030 is now a real possibility,” he said. “The failure to treat people with equal respect is what fuelled AIDS. The moment we began to respect, the moment we chased out shame, was the moment we started the fight back.”

Shah Rukh Khan, for his leadership in championing children’s and women’s rights in India

Shah Rukh Khan is one of Bollywood’s most prominent actors who has been at the forefront of the Indian film and television industry for over 30 years. He is also the founder of the non-profit Meer Foundation, which provides support to female victims of acid attacks and major burn injuries through medical treatment and legal aid. “To disfigure a woman by throwing acid on her face is one of the crudest acts of subjugation imaginable. At the source of it lies the view that a woman does not have the right to assert her choice,” he said. “We need to open access for each and every one with a true sense of ourselves, not as more powerful or less privileged but as equals.”

HBO chief Richard Plepler refuses to sanction Bill Maher, even though he was deluged with a petition in November by outraged Catholics protesting Maher’s bigotry. Maher gives most demographic groups a pass, but is pathologically obsessed in his determination to slander all priests. His return on Friday showed that he picked up where he left off.

Maher showed a picture of a statue of St. Dominic, one that was recently commissioned by the Catholic Church in Australia. The statue depicts the saint offering a young boy bread; the child is standing next to the image at waist level. Maher, of course, saw this as a sexual statement, saying Church officials “didn’t think it all the way through.” He added, “Subway restaurants have finally found their new spokesperson, Father Footlong.”

Maher is not only a bigot, he and his homosexual writers continue to promote a false narrative: most of the priests involved in sexual abuse—there are very few today—were homosexuals who hit on postpubescent males. So if Maher wants to continue with this theme, let him at least tell the truth.

Of course, Maher doesn’t have the guts to tell the truth. If he did, he would have ripped into his sexually challenged buddy, Louis C.K.; instead, he let him off. Moreover, if he did dump on homosexuals, Plepler would drop the hammer on him. As long as he continues to defame priests, Plelpler will look the other way.

Instead of ignoring anti-Macedonian hate as per its previous policy, Facebook is now actively engaging in it. Nik Petrovski, a Macedonian from Sydney, Australia, recently created a Facebook frame  at facebook.com/RiseUpMKD in defence of the constant bombardment by Greeks against our Macedonian ethnicity. Facebook issued a 3-day ban to Mr. Petrovski for “violating community standards”. How is it possible that defending one’s most basic of human rights, self-determination, goes against Facebook standards?

See MHRMI’s press release of June 24, 2016, in which we call for Facebook to not permit hateful anti-Macedonian posts by Greeks, Bulgarians and Albanians. Facebook’s response was that this hatred does “NOT violate community standards”.

Greece began claiming the name Macedonia in 1988 and its former Prime Minister, Constantine Mitsotakis, has even admitted to creating the artificial name dispute as a way to deny the existence of its large Macedonian minority and to cover up the vast human rights abuses against it. Greece’s cultural misappropriation of Macedonia cannot be rewarded. It cannot be used as an excuse to persecute an entire ethnic group. The United Nations, European Court of Human Rights, US State Department and countless human rights organizations have all condemned Greece for its systematic persecution of Macedonians and have demanded that Greece immediately recognize its Macedonian minority and provide them the rights that they are guaranteed as per every international human rights convention.

Macedonian Human Rights Movement International expects and demands an immediate apology and policy change from Facebook. We call on Macedonians worldwide to join us. Contact and publicly call out Facebook and demand immediate action. Use the hashtags #OurNameIsMacedonia, #WeAreMacedonia and tag @mhrmi. Our Name Is Macedonia. Demand respect. All Macedonians are united in its defence. Join the Our Name Is Macedonia campaign and our call to end the anti-Macedonian name negotiations. Defend our right to exist as who we’ve always been – Macedonians.

Trump is not a nice guy. This is a given in U.S. politics and becomes a flashpoint in news cycles whenever he reminds us of this by rashly threatening war with North Korea, calling some countries in the Global South ‘shitholes’ for being poor and having majority non-white populations or picking fights with major news outlets.

To say that Trump may be one of the worst presidents ever has become commonplace, unnotable, even boring.

But the bully theatrics in Trump’s first year as president is nothing compared to the damage former president George Bush did his first year in office. Trump may be breaking down customs of civility in the highest office, but Bush helped to destroy the lives of millions while evaporating civil and political rights under the guise of national security—all at breakneck speeds.

Trump’s bad attitude and behavior are very easy to name and shame, and Trump has a machine-like efficiency in offending the senses. In response, social media and other major media outlets like late night hosts have adopted a permanent defensive posture, waiting until he says something outrageous before repeating the tried and true pattern of calling him immoral and graciously accepting the applause from the audience, spellbound by the fireworks of civil society reacting to a sitting president with such indignation.

Bush’s Wars vs. Trump’s Muslim Ban

While Trump says bad things, President Bush was doing bad things. Though Trump crafted the horrific travel ban, which bars residents of six Muslim-majority countries from entering into the U.S., Bush began the Forever War in Afghanistan while deeming Iraq to be part of a so-called Axis of Evil.

Bush tried to prevent hatred against Muslims from spreading throughout the U.S. during the hawkish and frenzied warcries, but he failed.

Islamophobia ensnared the country, isolated the millions of Muslims in the U.S. and helped to form the populist sentiment against Islam that Trump brutally exploited in order to win the presidential election on a platform of questioning Obama’s faith and birthplace and instituting a Muslim travel ban.

Though the circumstances of 9/11 were extraordinary, Bush’s response, to push two indefinite wars and erode rights protections is equally, if not more astonishing.

In his first year in office, Bush invaded and occupied Afghanistan without a clear exit strategy—a tragic mistake for which the U.S. and Afghanistan are still paying. Tens of thousands of Afghani civilians died, billions of dollars were lost to abandoned infrastructure projects, and the U.S. still doesn’t know how to make a graceful exit.

Not to sell himself short as being a hawk, Bush decided the U.S. needed another war. On Jan. 29, a few days after Bush’s one-year anniversary in office, he invented the ‘Axis of Evil,’ to describe Iran, Iraq, North Korea and other countries that sponsor terrorism. This speech helped to give the push to invade Iraq—a blunder that has killed over half a million civilians, displaced millions more. Iraq has still not recovered from the U.S. invasion and occupation.

Trump has made explicit to Americans how the U.S. government feels about Muslims, but many Muslims have already known that thanks to Bush’s wars and failure to contain rampant Islamophobia.

Bush: a Real PATRIOT

In October 2001, Bush signed the hurried PATRIOT Act into law, giving the federal government broad powers to deny basic human and civil rights deemed too threatening to maintain a tight security apparatus.

The PATRIOT Act allows for mass surveillance of U.S. residents, permits wiretaps of phones with a warrant, and the indefinite detention of non-citizens.

In an interview with John Kiriakou, the ex-CIA officer who blew the whistle on the U.S.’ use of torture methods such as waterboarding, stressed that more Americans need to know exactly the impact of the PATRIOT Act: “It is illegal for [National Security Agency (NSA)] to spy on Americans. And not only is it illegal, but it’s a part of the NSA’s charter that it is not allowed to spy on Americans,” but thanks to the PATRIOT Act, the “NSA spies on all Americans.”

Also in response to 9/11, Bush established the notorious detention camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, also known as Gitmo. Gitmo has become a symbol of the U.S.’ suspension of rights in its fight against ‘terror,’ by establishing a torture camp whereby uncharged suspects of extremism are subject to long periods of isolation, forced feeding, waterboarding and other cruel methods of detention and information extraction.

Trump talks up torture as an effective method of treating suspects of terrorism, but Bush wrote the modern playbook of how to actually implement it as a mainstay in the war against terror.

Beyond the PATRIOT Act’s immediate effects, it accelerated a trend in expanding discrete, unaccountable state power

Although torturing human beings is useless in producing meaningful information, it is incredibly effective at demonstrating a basic apathy towards preserving human dignity, but is also a great way to becoming an international villain.

What the International Community thinks of Bush and Trump

Trump garners almost no respect from any international leader or audience, and has backtracked U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement to combat climate change. But Bush, not far behind him, also pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, another treaty aimed at combating climate change.

Bush also proved to be an unreliable international leader: part of his foreign policy doctrine was unabashed unilateralism. In other words, Bush had a tendency of going into other countries without any international support. Again, massive failure that promotes hasty and illegal wars which unilaterally fall on U.S. taxpayers. To this, at least Trump has no foreign policy doctrine to speak of.

All of this in a year and a few days. So far, Trump has perhaps made obvious how unpresidential the office of the presidency actually can be, but his first 100 days have not proven to be as catastrophic as Bush’s.

Trump Doesn’t Know How to be President, and Why That Matters

Those claiming that Trump’s first year in office ranks among the worst may need to recalibrate their understanding of U.S. politics: with so much power invested in the presidency, any miscalculation or abuse can leave thousands of people dead and countries struggling.

Trump doesn’t even seem aware of how much power the presidency has, preferring to tweet outrageous comments rather than strike potentially harmful backroom deals. Bush, on the other hand, knew exactly what he could do as president, and embroiled much of the world in strife and disrepair as a result.

Original source

By Hannah Brockhaus

Aboard the papal plane from Lima to Rome Sunday, Pope Francis said that comments made to Chilean journalists Jan. 18 were not intended to cause pain for victims of clerical sexual abuse.

Francis said that he had meant to explain to Chileans that because he has not seen evidence that Chilean Bishop Juan Barros helped to cover up acts of sexual abuse, it would be unjust to condemn him.

The pontiff said that his use of “the word ‘proof’ was not the best in order to draw near to a suffering heart.”

The Pope asked for forgiveness from victims he may have wounded, stating that unintentionally causing them harm “horrified” him, especially after he met with victims in Chile, as he has done on other trips, such as to Philadelphia in 2015.

“I know how much they suffer, to feel that the Pope says in their face ‘bring me a letter, proof,’ it’s a slap,” he said.

He also explained that he is aware that victims may not have brought forward evidence because it is unavailable, or because they are otherwise ashamed or afraid.

“Barros’ case was studied, it was re-studied, and there is no evidence,” Francis told journalists Jan. 21. “That is what I wanted to say. I have no evidence to condemn him. And if I condemn him without evidence or without moral certainty, I would commit the crime of a bad judge.”

“If a person comes and gives me evidence,” he continued, “I am the first to listen to him. We should be just.”

Barros is accused by four victims of clerical sexual abuse of colluding to cover up the crimes of his longtime friend, Fr. Fernando Karadima. Francis has long defended Barros, who claims to be innocent. Barros has been a subject of controversy since his 2015 appointment to lead the Diocese of Osorno.

Karadima, who once led a lay movement from his parish in El Bosque, was convicted of sexually abusing minors in a 2011 Vatican trial, and at the age of 84, he was sentenced to a life of prayer and solitude.

During his Jan. 15-18 visit to Chile, Pope Francis met with abuse survivors, but when questioned about Barros by journalists on his last day in the country, he said, “the day they bring me proof against Bishop Barros, I’ll speak. There is not one shred of proof against him. It’s all calumny. Is that clear?”

The Pope’s comment was met with fierce opposition, as critics said he was insensitive to abuse victims.

Cardinal Sean O’Malley, Archbishop of Boston and one of nine members of the Pope’s Council of Cardinals, issued a statement Jan. 20 voicing criticism of the Pope’s remarks.

“It is understandable that Pope Francis’ statements yesterday in Santiago, Chile were a source of great pain for survivors of sexual abuse by clergy or any other perpetrator,” O’Malley said.

“Words that convey the message ‘if you cannot prove your claims then you will not be believed’ abandon those who have suffered reprehensible criminal violations of their human dignity and relegate survivors to discredited exile,” he said.

Since he was not personally involved in the Chilean cases, O’Malley said he couldn’t speak as to why the Pope chose to use the specific words he did when responding to reporters.

“What I do know, however, is that Pope Francis fully recognizes the egregious failures of the Church and its clergy who abused children and the devastating impact those crimes have had on survivors and their loved ones.”

“Accompanying the Holy Father at numerous meetings with survivors I have witnessed his pain of knowing the depth and breadth of the wounds inflicted on those who were abused and that the process of recovery can take a lifetime,” O’Malley said, adding that Francis’ many statements insisting on a “zero-tolerance” policy for abuse in the Church “are genuine and they are his commitment.”

During the press conference, the Pope said that he had seen O’Malley’s statement and that he has appreciation for the cardinal: “I thank him for his statement because it was very just.”

“[O’Malley] said all that I did and that I do, that the Church does, and then he spoke of the sorrow of victims” in general, Francis said. “Because many victims feel that they are not able to bring [forward] a document or a testimonial.”

Aboard the flight, the Pope also explained the background of letter he wrote to Barros two years ago, and which has recently surfaced.

The letter illustrates a dialogue of 10-12 months between him and Barros, he said, beginning at the time the scandal concerning Karadima was revealed.

Francis said that at that time, someone from the Chilean bishops’ conference suggested that the four bishops who had been close to Karadima should resign or take a sabbatical year until the scandal had passed over, “because they are good bishops.”

At this time, Barros, who had been a bishop since 1995, followed this advice and submitted his resignation to the Holy See. Pope Francis said that he did not allow the bishop’s resignation, because to do so would be “to admit culpability in advance,” in his opinion. And in this case, as in any, “if there are culpable parties, it will be investigated.”

In 2015, when Francis appointed Barros bishop of Osorno, Chile, there were protests, and again, Barros submitted his resignation, Francis said.

“I spoke with him for a long time, others spoke at length with him…” We all told him to continue as bishop, the Pope noted.

“They have continued to investigate Barros, but there is no evidence and this is what I wanted to say: I cannot condemn him because I don’t have the evidence… But I am also convinced that he is innocent.”

O’Malley is the head of the Pontifical Commission for the Protection of Minors, which just concluded a 3-year mandate in December. The Vatican has not issued any statements on the the commission since its expiration, causing some to speculate on the future of its existence.

In the most recent meetings of the Council of Cardinals, O’Malley spoke on the commission’s continued work, explaining that it is in the Pope’s hands to decide whether to reconfirm current members and whom to appoint as new members.

In the presser, Francis said that before the start of his trip, he had received a list of recommendations for new members, which he is now studying. The Pope did not say whether O’Malley would be reappointed.

Qatar reaffirmed on Monday its support for the efforts of  Turkey to maintain its national security in the wake of the breaches and terrorist attacks carried out inside Turkish territories.

Speaking to QNA on Monday, spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry Lolwah AlKhater said the Turkish army’s launch of Operation Olive Branch on Saturday was driven by legitimate concerns related to its national security and securing its borders, as well as protecting the territorial integrity of Syria from the danger of secession.

AlKhater added that the operation comes as the Turkish territories were subjected to several infiltrations and terrorist attacks that the Turkish government saw some of which to be connected to the security and military component present on the Turkish-Syrian border, which the ISIS group and combating it played a role in its formation.

She noted that the State of Qatar, while backing the efforts of the Republic of Turkey to maintain its security, expresses its full support for the right of states to defend their national security, which is guaranteed by international conventions, including Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.

The Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson said that Turkey, a main member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has always been a stabilizing and balancing factor in the region, adding that the State of Qatar is fully confident of the Republic of Turkey’s keenness to maintain the safety of civilians and the territorial integrity of Syria.

AlKhater noted that the war on the criminal ISIS group is nearing its end, so all actors in the Syrian crisis must reach permanent solutions that take into account achieving justice for the Syrian people and holding accountable those who committed crimes against it, in addition to addressing the interests and concerns of all those affecting and affected by the crisis as guaranteed by international law.

(Civil.Ge) — Georgia’s foreign trade turnover increased by 13.8% in 2017 y/y, reaching USD 10.7 billion, according to the preliminary figures released by the state statistics office, Geostat, on January 22.

Exports from Georgia increased by 29.1% year-on-year to USD 2.72 billion and imports were up by 9.4% y/y to USD 7.97 billion in 2017, with trade gap standing at USD 5.25 billion.

Trade turnover with the EU-member states stood at USD 2.84 billion in 2017, a 2% increase compared to 2016.

Exports from Georgia to the EU-member states increased by 13% y/y to USD 646.5 million, while imports constituted USD 2.19 billion in 2017, 0.8% decline y/y.

Trade turnover with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased by 30.2% y/y in 2017 to USD 3.54 billion. Georgian exports to CIS countries were up by 60% y/y to USD 1.18 billion and imports increased by 19.2% to USD 2.36 billion.

The share of the EU countries in the foreign trade turnover of Georgia stood at 26.6%; 23.7% in exports and 27.5% in imports (in 2016 the corresponding figures stood at 29.6%, 27.1% and 30.4%).

The share of the CIS countries constituted 33.1%, 43.3% in exports and 29.6% in imports (28.9%, 34.9% and 27.2% in 2016, respectively).

Turkey remains Georgia’s largest trading partner with USD 1.58 billion in 2017, followed by Russia, China and Azerbaijan with USD 1.18 billion, USD 939 million and USD 881 million, respectively.

They are followed by Ukraine with total trade turnover of USD 569 million; Armenia – USD 489 million; Germany – USD 478 million; the United States – USD 389 million; Bulgaria – USD 334 million; Italy – USD 286 million.

Russia tops the list of largest trading partners by exports with USD 394 million, followed by Azerbaijan, Turkey and China with USD 272 million, USD 216 million and USD 207 million, respectively. Turkey, Russia, China and Azerbaijan are the top trading partners of Georgia in terms of imports with USD 1.37 billion, USD 788 million, USD 732 million and USD 609 million, respectively.

Copper ores and concentrates were on top of the list of exports in 2017 with USD 419 million (15.4% of total exports), followed by ferroalloys – USD 306 million (11.3% of total exports); re-export of motor cars – USD 234 million (8.6% of total exports); wine – USD 170 million (6.3% of total exports); medicines – USD 140 million (5.2% of total exports); non-denatured ethyl alcohol and spirits – USD 126 million (4.6% of total exports); mineral waters – USD 95 million (3.5% of total exports); hazelnuts – USD 83 million (3% of total exports); chemical fertilizers – USD 76 million (2.8% of total exports); raw or semi-processed gold – USD 70 million (2.6% of total exports); other commodities – USD 1 billion (36.7% of total exports).

Oil and oil products remain on top of the list of imports with USD 696 million, followed by cars – USD 474 million; petroleum gases – USD 350 million; medicines – USD 346 million; copper ores and concentrates – USD 338 million; mobile and other wireless phones – USD 204 million; cigarettes – USD 102 million; wheat – USD 98 million; automatic data processing machines – USD 96 million; trucks – USD 72 million; other commodities – USD 5.19 billion.

Algerian authorities have stepped up trials of members of the Ahmadiyya religious minority on charges related to the exercise of their religion, Human Rights Watch said Monday. Sentences range from fines to a year in prison.

Human Rights Watch received information that, in December 2017 alone, there were at least eight new trials in Algeria involving at least 50 Ahmadi defendants. Since June 2016, 266 Ahmadis have faced charges, some of them in more than one trial. The president of the Ahmadyyia community in Algeria, Mohamed Fali, told Human Rights Watch that at least four new trials are scheduled for later in January 2018.

“Algerian authorities continue their unabated persecution of this minority, apparently for doing no more than exercising their freedom of religion,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch.

The Ahmadiyya, a community founded in India in 1889 by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad and identifying itself as Muslim, is estimated to have about 2,000 adherents in Algeria, according to the community.

Algerian officials have denigrated the Ahmadis on more than one occasion. In October 2016, Religious Affairs Minister Mohamed Aissa described the Ahmadi presence in Algeria as part of a “deliberate sectarian invasion” and declared that the government brought criminal charges against Ahmadis to “stop deviation from religious precepts.” In February 2017, he stated that Ahmadis are damaging the very basis of Islam.

In April, Ahmed Ouyahia, then-chief of cabinet to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, said that “there are no human rights or freedom of religion” in the matter of the Ahmadis, because “Algeria has been a Muslim country for 14 centuries.” He called on Algerians to “protect the country from the Shia and Ahmadiyya sects.”

Authorities are prosecuting Ahmadis under one or more of the following charges: denigrating the dogma or precepts of Islam, punishable by a prison term of three to five years and a fine of up to 100,000 Algerian dinars (US$908), under article 144 of the penal code; participation in an unauthorized association, under article 46 of the Associations Law, punishable by a prison sentence of three to six months in prison and a fine of 100,000 to 300,000 dinars; collecting donations without a license, under articles 1 and 8 of the decree 03-77 of 1977 regulating donations; conducting worship in unauthorized places, under articles 7, 12, and 13 of Ordinance 06-03 Establishing the Conditions and Rules for the Exercise of non-Muslim Religions; and possession and distribution of documents from foreign sources threatening national security, under article 96-2 of the penal code, punishable by up to three years in prison.

In a December 11 trial, the First Instance Court of Ain Mlila sentenced Karim Hadjaze, a 37-year-old doctor and secretary general of the Ahmadi community, in absentia to one year in prison and 20,000 dinar fine (US$175), on charges of collecting donations without a license and conducting worship in unauthorized places. Hadjaze remains free pending his retrial, which is scheduled for January 14. He has also two other pending detention orders from the Larbaa and Setif first instance courts, both for convictions on charges related to his religious faith. In the Ain Mellila case, 10 other defendants received sentences ranging from three to six months in prison.

Fali, who had been arrested and prosecuted in six separate cases in 2016 and 2017 and spent three months in jail in Chlef in 2017, said he has been on trial before a court in Kolea since December on charges related to denigrating Islam, an unauthorized association, and documents threatening national security and another case heard on December 28 before the Boufarik First Instance Court.

Y.M., 34, an information technology engineer who did not want to be named, said that he was first arrested in Hassi Messaoud on February 20, 2017. He said gendarmes had searched his office and confiscated books about Ahmadis. They took him for interrogation at the gendarmerie and released him late that night. He said the Hassi Messaoud First Instance Tribunal convicted him on charges relating to denigrating Islam, an unauthorized association, documents threatening national security, and worshipping in unauthorized places, and sentenced him on October 28 to six months in prison and 300,000 dinars fine (US$2,600). He has appealed his conviction.

On April 2, 2017, when Y.M. was in his home town of Boumerdès, gendarmes searched his house and told him and his wife, who is also Ahmadi, to come in for interrogation. In this second case, the First Instance Court of Boumerdès sentenced him, on December 17, to a one-year suspended prison sentence and a fine of 500,000 dinars (US$4,340) on charges similar to the Hassi Messaoud case. He said he received a summons to appear in a third case, along with Fali, in Boufarik. They await the verdict.

During its Third Universal Periodic Review at the United Nations Human Rights Council, on May 8, Algeria failed to accept many of the recommendations calling on the authorities to stop arresting and defaming the Ahmadis. In its response to other countries’ remarks and recommendation, Algeria denied that Ahmadis “were prosecuted on the basis of their faith, but rather because they breached the law.” It stated that “there are no prisoners of opinion in Algeria or persons persecuted for their beliefs.”

However, the judge’s reasoning in the case in Ain Mellila, similar to some earlier judgments against Ahmadis that Human Rights Watch reviewed for a September 2017 report, shows that the court convicted them on charges related to their faith.

The judgment states, “It appears that a group of people belonging to the Ahmadiyya sect have formed in Ain Mellila to disseminate beliefs that are alien to our religion…this movement appears to be based on religion and rites but, in reality, it has a hidden agenda and future strategies aiming at destabilizing the country and shaking its stability and security.” The judgment did not specify how the defendants were endangering Algeria’s security.

Under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which Algeria ratified, governments must ensure the right to freedom of religion, thought, and conscience of everyone under their jurisdiction, and in particular to religious minorities. This right includes the freedom to exercise the religion or belief of one’s choice publicly or privately, alone or with others. Algeria’s constitution guarantees freedom of religion but states that “this freedom must be exercised in respect of the law.”

By Gordana Knezevic

(RFE/RL) — Mitrovica has been gripped by shock and fear since the killing of a moderate Serbian politician in that northern Kosovo municipality with an ethnic Serbian majority.

Few residents have been willing to speak to journalists, but one of the questions that residents are said to be asking privately is: If they could kill him, what’s in store for us?

Mitrovica is a divided city, a front line in the extended standoff between Belgrade and Pristina. Hardly a month goes by without an incident there, despite the presence of EU and NATO forces.

Its people grapple with the constant threat of violence. But damage is more often material — a hand grenade strikes fear but doesn’t injure, or a vehicle is set on fire. Oliver Ivanovic, an ethnic Serb politician fluent in Albanian before he was gunned down outside his office, was Mitrovica’s highest-profile casualty in a long time.

Vucic’s ‘Kosovo Moment’

The president of neighboring Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, was quick to pay a visit to Mitrovica in a move that critics suggested echoed too closely a visit by then-Yugoslav communist leader Slobodan Milosevic in 1987, with animosities high at that time, too.

Zagreb-based commentator Dejan Jovic went so far as to tweet that Vucic “had his Kosovo moment,” recalling Milosevic’s words on that day, 30 years ago, when the Serbian strongman reassured ethnic Serbs in Kosovo that “no one should dare to beat you again.” It was a performance that many say set the tone for a decade of war and destruction fueled by nationalism throughout the Balkans.

On his visit to Mitrovica this weekend, Vucic lay flowers at the spot where Ivanovic was shot. He also met with Kosovar Serb representatives in the village of Laplje, in northern Kosovo.

But Vucic’s tone was far more restrained and conciliatory, and he appeared to demonstrate a desire to listen. Unlike the riotous crowds and nationalist slogans that greeted an ascendant Milosevic in 1987, Vucic was presented with a litany of common grievances — including concerns over rising unemployment, lawlessness, crime, and general insecurity.

He did not initially meet with any opposition Kosovar politicians, although a meeting has now been scheduled with one of them, Momcilo Trajkovic, who had addressed an open letter to Vucic. He will reportedly have a chance to speak to Vucic in person on January 23.

Indeed, Mitrovica’s problems are seemingly broader than the dispute between Serbian and Albanian speakers. Rok Zupancic, from the Center for Southeast European Studies at the University of Graz, sees the city’s general lawlessness as the main issue. To underscore his point, Zupancic quotes from Ivanovic in an interview not long before the latter’s death:

“Let me be clear. The people [Serbs in northern Kosovo] are not afraid of the Albanians but of the Serbs, the local strongmen and the criminals, who drive around in jeeps without license plates. Illegal drugs are being sold at every corner, which is every parent’s fear. This is nothing new, but the scale of the problem is greater than ever, along with the arrogance of these people. The police see what is going on but do nothing….”

More broadly, and potentially far-reaching for the region’s future, EU-sponsored talks between Belgrade and Pristina that had been bogged down for some time were quickly postponed again following Ivanovic’s shooting — a development that might suit hard-liners just fine.

Ivanovic was a moderate, and as such had been marginalized on the larger political stage; but he also clearly had many friends and bitter enemies on both sides of Kosovo’s ethnic divide.

Among Ivanovic’s friends was Nenad Canak, the leader of the opposition League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV). Canak has already raised the question of who stood to profit from the breakdown in internationally mediated talks and rising tensions in northern Kosovo.

“I won’t even start with the old rule that when there’s a contract killing, it’s usually the killer who first offers their condolences,” Canak said.

Who Profits?

Canak then cast a suspicious eye toward Moscow, without providing any evidence of a connection. But he speculated that Russia might seize an “opportunity to act as the peacemaker, bringing order and calm” in return for “the international community…turn[ing] a blind eye to Crimea and the Donbas and accept[ing] the usurpation of parts of the territory of a neighboring country, which Russia supports.”

Canak also pointed to evidence of what he sees as Russia’s “serious investment” in the wider Balkan region, including reports of a 5-year-old center in the southern Serbian city of Nis that some have alleged is being used for spying. (Moscow denies the allegation.)

Meanwhile, Vuk Draskovic, the president of the opposition Serbian Renewal Movement in Serbia, said he saw Ivanovic’s murder as an act of political terrorism reminiscent of the modus operandi of Milosevic’s secret services from the 1990s. The shots fired at Ivanovic in Mitrovica were “[also] aimed at the Brussels agreement, the internal dialogue on Kosovo’s future, the stability of the region as a whole, and Serbia’s European path,” Draskovic said.

He added, “Oliver Ivanovic was a voice of reason, a respected leader of Kosovo Serbs, committed to dialogue with Albanians and to promoting the rule of law in a place where such an attitude earned him many enemies.”

Draskovic can at least say that he knows of what he speaks, having himself been a target of an attempted political assassination in the Milosevic years. Like many others in Serbia and beyond, Draskovic wants those responsible for Ivanovic’s death to be brought to justice as swiftly as possible, and for that to happen, cooperation between Serbian and Kosovo authorities is indispensable.

The Hezbollah wants an Intifada, an internal uprising in Palestine.

By Anchal Vohra

Hezbollah, which was born out of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, is today the strongest anti-Israel force and poses an imminent threat to the Jewish state. It managed to force out the Israelis in the year 2000 and routed them again in 2006 despite being tiny in both numbers and military might when compared to the enemy. The resilience it displayed raised the group’s stature, making it a legend of sorts — a force that can take on Washington backed Tel Aviv.

Funded and trained by Iran under Khomenie who laid the path of the resurgence of the Shia, the Hizbollah stood by the patron and fought for Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian war. The decision to fight for Assad was easy because the Assads are Alawites, an offshoot of the Shia sect in Islam and because Syria is a member of the Resistance to Israel. The Hizbollah also trained the Shia militias — since upgraded to paramilitary groups — in Iraq, to fight the American forces and later the ISIS. War hardened and with much more battle experience, the Hizbollah poses a serious challenge to the state of Israel and aims on liberating all the Palestinian territory under Israeli occupation.

If one must believe their ideological stand and all the rhetoric that comes with it, the Hezbollah faces insurmountable odds. Pro Palestine factions are riddled with rivalries, led by the Saudis. The Gulf seems keener on developing an understanding with Israel even if it means a pro-Israel resolution to the conflict than join pro-Palestinian resistance and there seems to be a sense of fatigue amongst the Palestinians in Palestine and the Palestinian liberation authority. Let us look at Hizbollah’s strategy for Palestine.

Will there be war?

Late last year, on 4 November, the clouds of war moved from Syria and shrouded Lebanon once again. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned while in Riyadh, sending shockwaves to the region, leaving one question on every lip — Will Lebanon be next? It was perceived as a Saudi move to threaten the rise of Iran and its proxy, the Hizbollah in the Levant. Groups backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey were biting the dust as the Shia allies succeeded in making a mark by defeating the rebels — who were Sunni — on the ground and handing victory to Assad. By threatening Lebanon’s stability, the idea was to have Iran and Hezbollah stop support to the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah came out shining with its appeals for calm and the war was averted.

Ali, a Hezbollah fighter who also drew maps of the war zones in Syria, doubles up as an ‘Uber’ taxi driver in Beirut during what he calls ‘peace time’. He gave an insight into why the Hezbollah is acting cautiously.

“We have been at war in Syria, Iraq, Yemen,” he said navigating the Corniche in Beirut. “We are tired and need a break,” he added.

Hezbollah spearheaded pro-Assad foreign legions in Syria. According to the American weekly magazine Newsweek, it sent 15,000 to 25,000 fighters, composed of Shias from Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, to Syria. The battle left many dead. Hezbollah does not give out the statistics, but the Newsweek estimates that 2,000 to 2,500 Hezbollah fighters were killed in the war.

At every other corner in ‘Dahiya’ — the southern suburb of Beirut which is the hub of the Hezbollah — posters of the martyrs are hanging from the pillars and pasted on bus stops.

“See, another friend of mine, who died in Al-Qusyr in Syria,” Ali says pointing to one such poster. Driving me through ‘Dahiya’, which is also where Ali lives, he spoke about the Hezbollah’s determination to take on Israel, ‘but not right away’, he said.

“The fighters need to rest not because they are scared, but because we need some time off,” Ali told me.

He fought in Syria with a ‘Kalashnikov’. An engineer by training, Ali is looking for a job in Germany. Speaking in broken English and fluent French, Ali is currently learning German with the hope he can restart his life.

“America thinks we are terrorists but we are not. We are all educated young men of Lebanon who want a good life, but not at the cost of Palestine,” says Ali.

War fatigue and the human cost of the Syrian war has not changed Hizbollah’s raison d’être of seeking Israel’s annihilation. It has though temporarily dented the will of the ‘party of God’ to go to another immediate war.

“War with Israel, yes there will be one just not yet,” says Ali.

His view is resonating in the pro-Hezbollah expert lobby in Lebanon. Kemal Wazni, an economist and a political analyst, is one of them.

“The Lebanese people are not ready for another war”, he told the author at his residence in Beirut. “But there will be a war with Israel when all the variables are in place,” he added.

Preparing for war

In what could have been yet another spark to inflame the passions in the region, US President Donald Trump announced the move of shifting the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on the 6 December. This effectively meant an end to the two-state solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict. Jerusalem is at the heart of the conflict because it is considered holy by the Muslims, the Christians and the Jews. East Jerusalem was annexed by Israel in the six-day war in 1967 and since then, internationally it is seen as the territory occupied by Israel. The status of Jerusalem, the international community agrees, is to be resolved at the later stages of the peace talks. In strong opposition to Trump, on 22 December, the UN General Assembly decisively backed a resolution calling on the US to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

The Arab world condemned Trump’s move, but the protests held were broadly symbolic.

Trump’s ill planned and ill-timed declaration though vindicated the claim of the Resistance to Israel that the US can’t be trusted as non-partisan in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah used it to make the case of an armed, and not political, path to resolving the crisis and reinvigorated Iran and Hizbollah’s call of ‘death to Israel’.

In a rally against Trump on Jerusalem, the Hezbollah chief said the group and its allies in the region would renew their focus on the Palestinian cause after what he called their victories elsewhere in the region.

This begs the question — If the Hezbollah does not want a war with Israel which reaches Lebanon, what exactly are they up to?

Hezbollah’s anti-Israel groups

On 11 December, the Hezbollah chief called for the Resistance to Israel to unite and come up with a common strategy to regain Jerusalem.

The Hezbollah has greatly expanded its reach in the recent wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and is now soliciting the support of the several groups it trained to join the resistance.

For instance, Asaib Aal Al-Haqq, one of the most feared Shia militias in Iraq, has been funded by Iran since 2003 and sought help from the Hezbollah. As a pay back, the commander of the group, Qais Al-Khaz’ali, toured the village of Kafr Kila in South Lebanon near the Israeli border and pledged fighters for the Palestinian cause. In a video sent out to pro-Hezbollah media in Lebanon, Khaz’ali is standing on the edge of a mountain in Kafr Kila and introspecting the valley beyond which lie territories under Israeli control. In the video, Khaz’ali says, “We are on full alert to help the jihad fighters of the resistance and to stand in the same trench with the Lebanese people and with the Palestinian cause, opposing the oppressive Israeli occupation that is hostile to Islam, to the Arabs and to humanity.”

Entities funded by Iran like the Badr militia, another paramilitary group in Iraq, and several others like Liwa Al-Imam Al-Baqr militia in Syria are sure to join the Hezbollah in challenging Israel.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad owes the most to Iran and the Hezbollah. Until 2001, he was seeking a deal with Israel and the west, entailing a handover of Golan — occupied by Israel in 67 — in lieu of ties with Iran and backing off the Palestinian issue. Seven years later, he has managed to survive because of the resistance axis and is in no position to resist their demands, and will provide all support to the resistance facing off the Israelis on the Golan.

Myriad Sunni Palestinian groups are also coming around despite a complicated history with the Shia Hezbollah in the past. PFLP or Popular front for the Liberation of Palestine; a leftist group and the Islamic Jihad are also offering allegiance to the Hezbollah which is purportedly fighting for the Palestinian cause.

“We should all be with the Hezbollah,” says Abu Mujahid, one of the local leaders of the PFLP in Lebanon. “The Arabs are conducting conferences, it is all rubbish” dissing the Saudis and the rest, Mr. Mujahid applauds the Hezbollah and paints it as the only remaining hope, “Hizbollah does what it says, that is why we believe them” he added.

The last two months of 2017 saw a string of meetings between the Hezbollah and several other factions to build a coalition to challenge Israel. Amongst many who are possibly accepting the idea, Hamas- the main armed Palestinian rival to Israel, has a daunting relationship with the Hezbollah.

Hezbollah building bridge with Hamas

Amal Saad, a professor at the Lebanese university and author of ‘Hezbollah: Politics and Religion’, calls Hamas a traitor to the cause of the resistance.

“Hamas helped the ‘Takfiri’ rebels in Syria against the resistance,” she said of Hamas’s opposition to Bashar al-Assad and the Hezbollah in the Syrian war by choosing to side with the rebels.

According to the Oxford Islamic Studies, in the modern context, Takfiris are those who follow the ideology of the father of modern violent Jihad Sayyid Qutb — the ideological guru of the Muslim Brotherhood and an inspiration to the likes of Osama bin Laden.

Ms. Saad says Hamas is considered Takfiri. “They have always had a Salafi mind set because they are backed by the Brotherhood,” she says.

Speaking of the problems between the Hezbollah and the Hamas and the bad blood between the two, she adds, “Hizb trained Hamas in the past with several things like building bunkers etc. and Hamas abused that knowhow against Assad.”

Hamas and the Hezbollah are the most difficult to be allies in this arrangement and yet Iran and the Hezbollah have opened their arms to Hamas’s leadership. In June 2017, Saudis cornered Qatar to cut the immensely wealthy but tiny kingdom to size. Ironically, amongst other things it targeted Qatar for sponsoring and sheltering terrorists. Under pressure, Qatar ousted a few Hamas leaders.

Saleh al-Arouri was one of those. He has since been promoted by the Hamas as the deputy of the group and has reportedly moved to Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s parleys with Hamas leaders like him began even before Trump’s Jerusalem fiasco. The first reported meeting took place on the 31 October.  Nasrallah and Arouri discussed ways to unite their efforts to oppose Israel.

On 24 November, Hamas confirmed that they were cooperating with the Hezbollah despite differences in the past over Syria. He told the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, “there is cooperation between Hezbollah, Hamas and other elements of the resistance, and Iran.”

According to the Syrian daily: Al-Watan, Iran and the Hezbollah are also mediating to bring Hamas and Assad closer and to that end, Saleh al-Arouri visited Syria in October. Though Al-Akhbaar which closely identifies with the Hezbollah analysed that not much headway has been made in bringing Hamas and Assad together.

Hezbollah is widely advertising its efforts of sewing up a grand coalition to fight Israel but the differences between Hamas and the Hizbollah are deep rooted and highly sectarian. Dwelling on it, Ms. Saad says, “The sons of some of the Hamas leaders are very sectarian towards the Hezbollah and that is a problem.”

Undeterred, the Hezbollah is busy forming a war room to confront Israel. According to Lebanese newspaper, The Daily Star, the Hiebollah, Iraqi PMU militias, Hamas, and five other Palestinian armed organisations in Gaza and the West Bank [unnamed] are currently acting to form a joint war room to synchronise their military action in response to Trump’s Jerusalem announcement.

Hezbollah strategy effective?

The success rate of Iran backed Hezbollah strategy can’t be ascertained just yet. While they all have the same cause, varying sponsors and their interests would intervene in achieving the goal. Hamas has also recently climbed down on its position which is different on Israel from that of the Hezbollah. While the Hezbollah does not recognise Israel, Hamas conceded to making peace if Israel agrees to pre-1967 borders. Ideologically much more separates the two.

On the domestic front, unless attacked first by Israel, the Hezbollah can’t launch a war of mutual destruction. Collectively, the Lebanese will only support a war against Israel if Lebanese sovereignty is under question and not merely to support the Palestinians. To provide financial and other assistance to fighters within the west bank is also iffy because the Palestinian Liberation Authority which runs the area — to whatever extent the Israelis let it — isn’t yet clear on how it wants to counter Israel and Trump’s Jerusalem manoeuvre. The Hezbollah wants an Intifada, an internal uprising in Palestine, but in the current conditions that seems unlikely.

“So far, all the variables are not in place,” he adds, “Until then, the war has to wait,” sums up Mr. Kemal Wazni aptly.

By Dr Subhash Kapila

The January 2018 visit of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has strongly reaffirmed the Israel-India Strategic Partnership signed in mid-2017 and which the Israeli Prime Minister had then very aptly described it as “Seizing the Future” and which was analysed in detail in my SAAG Paper No.6277 dated 10 July 2017 and so titled.www.southasiaanalysis.org

Israel and India exist in two contiguous volatile regions of the Middle East and Indo Pacific plagued by strategic uncertainties demanding the coalescing of democracies with convergent strategic perspectives on the threats to security and stability hovering over the horizon. Israel and India with strong attributes of power are therefore well-placed to be ‘natural allies’ to complement each other’s strengths to meet the emerging challenges.

In my Paper quoted above I had stressed that by converting the Israel-India bilateral ties into a “Strategic Partnership” was an act of statesmanship. To formally elevate this vital partnership was a geopolitical recognition of prevailing realities and that this was in any case the “Advent of the Inevitable”. India’s diffidence to solidify unapologetically the strong bilateral security ties into that of a full-fledged Strategic Partnership had finally to await PM Modi riding into power in New Delhi.

The same Paper also highlighted that in terms of politico-strategics Israel had invested in India’s great power potential and also marked Israel’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ in which India implicitly would emerge as the centrepiece. Similarly, defying decades of Indian political establishment’s hesitation in establishing substantial relations with Israel out of undue sensitivity of Muslim nations, India had broken out of that diffident shell recognising prevailing geopolitical realities.

Before indulging in further analysis it needs to be stressed that Strategic Partnerships are not a one way street. There are corresponding obligations and sensitivity considerations incumbent on both Strategic Partners. India’s siding with a motley group of nations in the UN Resolution voting against US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was ill-timed and ill-advised. At best, India could have ‘abstained’.

Israel has been gracious in not holding this act as an unfriendly act by India and has expressed an understanding of the factors that prompted it. But then there cannot be a repeat of such acts by India, if India wishes to “Seize the Future” with Israel as it aspires to ascend the global power calculus ladder. .

In terms of “Seizing the Future” a robust Israel-India Strategic Partnership without any ambiguities confers major strategic gains for India in terms of a valuable additive and acceleration of India’s aspirations to emerge as leading Global Power.

India’s aspirational goals rest substantially on the robustness of India’s preferred Strategic Partnerships, the geopolitical expanse of such robust Strategic Partnerships and the inputs that such Strategic Partners can inject into build-up of India’s military power by virtues of arms sales, transfer of advanced defence technologies and strategic convergences with India’s national security interest.

Israel- India Strategic Partnership in view of cotemporaneous security environments of Israel and India must primarily focus on forging strong geopolitical convergences and a vibrant comprehensive strategic partnership spanning arms sales on a government –to-government basis cutting out India’s bureaucratic hassles, defence production technology transfers and joint military training.

Geopolitically, the Israel-India Strategic Partnership imparts to India the presence of a strong and valuable friend on the farthest edge of the Middle East and it could also be said that of the strongest power in the Middle East. Israel enjoys the overwhelming political and military support of the United States and that adds considerable set of strategic convergences between the United States, Israel and India. The advantages are obvious.

Curiously enough, Israel does not stand isolated diplomatically in the Arab Muslim world of the Middle East .It has ‘Peace Treaties’ with Egypt and Jordan.  Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar have diplomatic dealings with Israel. This political reality robs many critics in India critical of India’s strategic partnership with a country which the Muslim world shuns. Recent reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has taken pains to enhance its relationship with Israel. Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Muslim world should be giving full support to Palestine but then geopolitics seems to override that. India therefore cannot be accused of double standards.

The only sticking point for India in this case is the balancing of the two Strategic Partnerships that India has with Iran earlier and with Israel from last year. Surely, PM Modi and his policy advisers would have taken into account the fine balancing that India would have to do to respect the sensitivities of both. In this connection Iran’s deep relations with Russia can be cited as an example in that Russia also has sound relations with Israel concurrently with Iran whose security Russia underwrites.

In terms of Israel’s global geopolitical significance it needs to be pointed out that while the United States enjoys a rock-solid strategic relationship with Israel, one also witnesses Russia and China bestowing assiduous strategic attention on Israel. Both Russia and China are looked upon by the Islamic world as countervailing powers to the United States. India therefore geopolitically cannot be the odd man out more so when India and Israel enjoy long civilisational ties and with India being the only country where Jews have never ever suffered persecution.

Israel has proved itself beyond doubt that it is a solid and dependable friend of India with its past demonstrated record of defence collaboration and cooperation with India in the 1971 and 1999 Wars that Pakistan imposed on India. This was done by Israel despite the fact and unreservedly too, even when India had not established full diplomatic relations with India.

In terms of retrospective analysis it can be asserted Israel had a clear vision that India mattered even that far back in time and that India and Israel were destined to be natural allies. It is now for India as a ‘pay-back’ gesture to audaciously grasp and “Seize the Future” with Israel.

Israel’s weapon systems and the advanced technologies that go into them are battle-tested in the many wars that have been inflicted by its Arab neighbours. Further, many of these advanced defence technologies are US-derivatives. India’s access to them for its own military build-up in 2018 can be accelerated by the strength of strong complementary Israel-India and US-India Strategic Partnerships.

China has emerged as a serious threat of concern in the areas of cyberwarfare and space warfare—-both fields requiring highly advanced technologies which nations do not like to share. Indicators are available that Israel is willing to collaborate with India in these two crucial fields. This can be a good supplement to India’s own advances in these fields.

In terms of intelligence and counter-intelligence related to Islamic terrorism, cooperation exists and needs to be further reinforced. Israel is a peer in this field and has a vast network in the Middle East of which India can derive benefit. One would venture further to suggest that India could seek assistance from Israel in streamlining of its intelligence agencies so that Indian intelligence agencies can function on a more highly motivated and dynamic mode.

The emergence last year of an institutionalised Israel-India Strategic Partnership marks a geopolitical milestone in the policies of Israel and India which now binds together two dynamic nations into a comprehensive partnership held back for decades by India’s domestic political compulsions.

In conclusion, it needs to be stressed that the existing geopolitical uncertain realities in the Middle East and Indo Pacific place a higher call on politically and strategically robust countries like Israel and India to reinforce and raise the Israel-India Strategic Partnership to newer heights in terms of substance and nuances. This would ensure that a strong existential counterweight emerges in these two contiguous regions contributing to regional and global security.

The global economy faces a reskilling crisis with 1.4 million jobs in the US alone vulnerable to disruption from technology and other factors by 2026, according to a new report, Towards a Reskilling Revolution: A Future of Jobs for All, published by the World Economic Forum.

The report is an analysis of nearly 1,000 job types across the US economy, encompassing 96% of employment in the country. Its aim is to assess the scale of the reskilling task required to protect workforces from an expected wave of automation brought on by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Drawing on this data for the US economy, the report finds that 57% of jobs expected to be disrupted belong to women. If called on today to move to another job with skills that match their own, 16% of workers would have no opportunities to transition and another 25% would have only between one and three matches.

At the other end of the spectrum, 2% of workers have more than 50 options. This group makes up a very small, fortunate minority: on average, all workers would have 10 transition options today.

The positive finding of the report is the huge opportunity identified for reskilling to lift wages and increase social mobility. With reskilling, for example, the average worker in the US economy would have 48 viable job transitions – nearly as much as the 2% with the most options today. Among those transitions, 24 jobs would lead to higher wages.

The case for a reskilling revolution

The research, which is published in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, finds that coordinated reskilling that aims to maintain or grow wages has very high returns for workers at risk of displacement – and for businesses and the economy. At-risk workers who retrain for an average of two years could receive an average annual salary increase of $15,000 – and business would be able to find talent for jobs that may otherwise remain unfilled. With this approach, up to 95% of at-risk workers would find new work in new, higher-income jobs. Without such coordinated upskilling efforts, the report finds, one in four of at-risk workers would lose on average $8,600 of their annual income even if they are successful in moving to a new job.

However, this reskilling revolution requires that 70% of affected workers retrain in a new job “family” or career, highlighting the need for retraining initiatives that combine reskilling programmes with income support and job-matching schemes to fully support those undergoing this transition.

“The only limiting factor on a world of opportunities for people is the willingness of leaders to make investments in re-skilling that will bridge workers onto new jobs. This report shows that this investment has very high returns for businesses as well as economies – and ensures that workers find a purpose in their lives,” Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.

A future of jobs for all

The report also describes what reskilling would need to look like. The people who will do best in the transitions underway are those who have “hybrid” skills – transferable skills like collaboration and critical thinking, as well as deeper expertise in specific areas. Both highly specialized and highly generalist roles will need significant reskilling.

The report lays out 15 job pathways to demonstrate the precise range of options that reskilling can present for professions as diverse as assembly-line workers, secretaries, cashiers, customer service representatives, truck drivers, radio and TV announcers, fast-food chefs, mining machine operators and computer programmers.

However, for these viable and desirable job transitions to come to fruition requires concerted efforts by businesses, policy-makers and various stakeholders to think differently about workforce planning and to invest in reskilling that will bridge workers to new jobs.

“Work provides people with meaning, identity and opportunity. We need to break out of the current paralysis and recognize that skills are the ‘great redistributor’. Equipping people with the skills they need to make job transitions is the fuel needed for growth – and to secure stable livelihoods for people in the midst of technological change,” said Saadia Zahidi, Head of Education, Gender and Work System Initiative and Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum.

A gendered impact

Of the 1.4 million jobs expected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to be disrupted between now and 2026, the majority – 57% – belong to women. This is a worrying development at a time when the workplace gender gap is already widening and when women are under-represented in the areas of the labour market expected to grow most robustly in the coming years. The data show that the current narrative about the most at-risk category is misleading from a gender perspective. For example, there are nearly 164,000 at-risk female secretaries and administrative assistants, while there are just over 90,000 at-risk male assembly-line workers.

Without reskilling, on average, at-risk women have only 12 job transition options, while at-risk men have 22 options. With reskilling, women have 49 options, while men have 80 options. With reskilling, the options gap between women and men narrows. However, these transitions also present an opportunity to close the persistent gender wage gap. Combined reskilling and job transitions would lead to increased wages for 74% of all currently at-risk women, while the equivalent figure for men is 53%.

While the preceding three Bengal Global Business Summit failed to impress the investors, the 4th summit made a turning point in reaping the rays of hope for the investment in West Bengal. This was exemplified by the presence of top investors, like Mr Mukhesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries and Mr LN Mittal – Chairman of ArcelorMittal- known as steel king of the world.

Not only their presences, but the summit was graced by Mr Ambani’s assertiveness for a strong footprint in West Bengal when he drew a road map for his mega investment projects in West Bengal. Following suit, other major investors like Mr Kishore Byani- the leader of organized retail in India ( Big Bazar), Mr. Sajjan Jindal – one of the leading steel makers in the country, Goenka – one of the India’s major manufacturing groups and Mr. Kotak – one of the linchpin of Indian private banking unleashed their investment plan in West Bengal. Their presence and decoding their plans for investment ensured that this time they could trust Mamata’s slogan “ Bengal means Business”. This was adorned by Mr Mukhesh Ambani in foretelling that West Bengal will be “Best Bengal”.

The success of the summit should not be measured by the amount of investment, signed under MOUs. The crucial point of the summit is that whether the summit could create a new mindset of the entrepreneurs for a relook at West Bengal. Even though the MOUs signed for investment in 4th summit was lesser than MOUs signed last year, the proposals in 4th summit were more realistic. So far, most of the MOUs signed before remained on paper.

The impact of the summit will take time to be evident. Nevertheless, presence of big Indian honchos and their reiterance of Mamata’s relentless efforts to woo the investors for Bengal resurrection as investment destination, seemed to have worked well in the summit. The summit proved a further success when she could manage the presence of pro- Modi entrepreneurs in the summit, such as Mr Ambani and Mr Adani.

West Bengal profiles for two important characteristics for investment. One, it is bestowed with ample natural resources under the soil of Sonar Bangla, and second its geographical location in the east, which harbors for border trade with four nations and North East. Polarizing on these two strong parameters, which no other state can provide, West Bengal can usher a strong turf for border trade and be a pivot to India- ASEAN connectivity – the paradigm shift of Modi’s dynamism to rein in Asia under Act Asia policy.

West Bengal has a distinct advantage to become a potential trading hub for India or gateway to South East Asia, because of its geographical placement. Its proximity to Bangladesh, Nepal , Bhutan and Myanmar spur enough opportunities for trading with India. West Bengal can act as a Indian Silk Road to India’s neighbours. Myanmar has emerged a prospective trade destination after the returns of democracy. The road connectivity provides enough potential for border trade with these countries. With the cost cutting opportunity in logistic , a competitive tool for buoyancy in trade, border trade unleashes greater opportunities to augment trade with neighbouring countries.

The recent focus on India-ASEAN connectivity can develop the road for connectivity between West Bengal and its neighbouring countries. This will pave the way for the state to become export hub to the ASEAN and East Asia region.

Besides, West Bengal can act as India’s Rotterdam , by providing spaces for large warehousing facilities to export to ASEAN and East Asia region, owing to the development of road connectivity between India and ASEAN. The State government should develop infrastructures for MNCs warehousing facilities, especially to attract Japanese Sogo Sosha and Korean Chaebol , whose global marketing expertise were ramped up by strong information network and distribution channel. These warehousing facilities can provide effective distribution channel with timely supply of goods and low cost logistic support.

West Bengal has unique advantage to become a strong foundation for global value chain ( GVC) manufacturing operations in the eastern region. In the wake of China loosing cost competitiveness, which resulted foreign investors looking for alternatives, West Bengal can provide a propitious land for GVC manufacturing operations between India and ASEAN. West Bengal is considered to be one of the lowest in the cost competitiveness manufacturing place in India. To this end, the state can offer an unique opportunity to be the hub for exports to ASEAN and other Asian countries in the east for their entrepreneurs, who dependent on multinational GVC operations for manufacturing.

GVC is an unique system to take the advantage of low cost production at multinational level. According to World Bank’s “ Global Value Chain Report”, GVC provides opportunities for developing countries to diversify their exports and intensify integrity into global economy. Given the geographical proximity, West Bengal can produce a slot under GVC , without having to produce a complete and final product. As a result, the state can export mostly manufacturing value –added products.

Against the backdrop of the present industrial structure of West Bengal, the industries with low and middle level investment and of labor intensive are appropriate for industrialization. To this end, experiences of Vietnam and Bangladesh would be pertinent for the growth of industries in West Bengal. Success stories of ‘Supporting industry” model for automobile in Vietnam and surge in garment industry in Bangladesh can provide some tips to West Bengal

Mamata vied for BMW to set up factory in West Bengal, while she visited Munich in September 2016. The big question lies whether it is feasible to set up a giant automobile plant by a foreign investor like BMW .

Structurally, the automobile is a value-chain or component base industry. In Japanese terminology, it is known as supporting base industry. It is an inter – chain of assembly and component manufacturing units. Therefore, for setting up of a major automobile factory, development of component and parts units within the vicinity of the assembly plant is imperative. To this end, given the benefits of low cost production and the presence of three top class technical institutions, viz, IIT Karagpur, Shibpur Engineering college and Jadavpur University, which can provide skilled workers, the state has big potential for automobile industries.

Even though in the summit, no big entrepreneur proposed for an automobile plant, the days are not far when the state will be propitious for automobile industry when the industrial honchos like Mukhesh Ambani, Adani, Jindal , Goeka and Biyani pour their investment in the state.

To deduce from the above, West Bengal was seemed to have knocked the hearts of big entrepreneurs for a relook at West Bengal, overturning Mamata’s stigma for anti –industrialists.

By Asier Achutegui*

In a country that depends almost entirely on its oil exports it seems very strange that its leaders despise the national oil company. This, however, is precisely what is happening in Venezuela under the government of President Maduro.

Between December 2014 and December 2017 Venezuelan oil production fell from 2.9 million barrels/day to 1.8 million as reported by the government to the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC). This implies a loss of over US$62 million a day, taking into account the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket in December.

A country that is currently undergoing one of the worst economic and social crises in its history would naturally look for ways to halt the decline in order to have access to this much needed foreign currency. Especially considering that according to the Venezuelan Central Bank (2015 data, the latest available official balance of trade statistics) 95% of its total foreign exchange revenue is generated by oil exports and that PDVSA’s total revenue accounted for around 37% of GDP in 2016 (using 2016 GDP estimates by Torino Capital and comparing them with PDVSA’s 2016 published financial results). All actions taken by the government, however, seem to further hinder any possibility of recovery.

The decrease in production is a natural occurrence because oilfields become depleted. In order to offset this natural decline it is important to apply effective reservoir management techniques and invest in technologies for maximising recovery. On the other hand, companies should constantly develop new fields so as to ensure a stable total production. This is not what is happening in PDVSA. The company has failed to offset the production decline of its traditional oil producing areas. Such a decline is inevitable since they have been producing oil for over 100 years.

For the country that according to the International Energy Agency has the world’s largest oil reserves this should not be a major concern, given that the production loss can be quickly replaced by new fields. In the past years Venezuelan oil production has shifted from the traditional areas of the north-west to the centre-east where the Orinoco Oil Belt is located (the Faja as it is known in Venezuela), an area covering around 55,500 km². According to PDVSA’s 2008 operational report, oil production in the Faja accounted for 16% of total production that year and PDVSA’s 2016 operational reports show that it has grown to 50%.

In its 2017 annual statistical review, BP estimates that by the end of 2016, 222 billion barrels could be recovered from the region in an economically feasible way using existing technology (as a reference, Saudi Arabia’s total oil reserves stand at 266 billion barrels). The oil in the area, however, is extra-heavy, with an API grade below 10 degrees, and its production and transport therefore require additional efforts. In order to ensure the flow of crude towards the processing plants it needs to be blended with diluents. Initially another Venezuelan crude of higher gravity from the traditional oil fields of the north-west was used (Mesa 30) although, given the natural decline of these fields, the company started using refined products as diluents, particularly naphtha.

In the past three years the Venezuelan refining system has experienced many difficulties, largely related to ageing infrastructure and lack of investment, resulting in a dramatic drop in output. This forced PDVSA to start importing naphtha, and on some particular occasions light crudes, so as to keep the necessary flow of diluents for transporting oil from the Faja. These diluents should, theoretically, be recovered after treating the extra-heavy oil in the upgrading facilities and then sent back to the producing fields so as to maintain a constant flow. The upgrading capacity, however, has not increased at the same pace as the production of this extra-heavy oil, a large part of the production of the Faja is therefore exported with the diluents, as blended crude (naphtha with extra-heavy oil).

The fact that a large part of PDVSA’s production is tied to debt repayments, in addition to the scarcity of foreign currency due to the country’s extremely restrictive exchange control have given rise to an important cash flow problem for the company. This has in turn affected its capacity to import diluents in the required quantities to continue increasing oil production in the Faja to the levels needed to make up for the decrease in the traditional areas.

The Faja, on the other hand, is an inhospitable region, far from the country’s traditional oil centres and therefore lacking the necessary infrastructure to effectively operate the oil fields. Each new development requires hundreds of kilometres of different pipelines (for water, diluents, crude and natural gas) to allow the flow between the oil field and the processing plants. New roads are needed to link urban centres with the fields. This entails enormous investments, time and planning.

Most significant, however, is the need to have qualified personnel for each phase of the development. Unfortunately, PDVSA’s working conditions, where an engineer is paid a monthly salary equivalent to US$20, together with Venezuela’s deep social crisis have forced many qualified workers to leave the country. This, combined with the prioritising of political proselytism over technical qualifications, explains the general demoralisation of the majority of PDVSA’s employees. A few days after being appointed PDVSA’s new CEO, Brigadier General Manuel Quevedo publicly encouraged the workforce to engage in bullying and persecuting anyone not demonstrating unconditional support for President Maduro.

All managerial posts, including the Board of Directors, have been assigned to people identified with President Maduro, regardless of their qualifications or experience in the oil industry. Nelson Martínez was the last high executive who had the necessary technical qualifications to solve the company’s serious internal problems, but he was ousted in November. During his short time in office he had to bear constant political attacks that did not allow him to devote himself to running the company. Additionally, the government imposed upon him a military executive vice-president, a few vice-presidents and an executive board with no knowledge of the oil industry, who reported directly to President Maduro and who constantly overruled any of his decisions.

In this very complicated context, it is impossible to develop the oil fields that might offset the natural production decline without the support of operating and financial partners. PDVSA’s partners who are still in Venezuela, however, have complained that they are not allowed to participate in the decision-making processes and that political judgement prevails over operating decisions. In addition, PDVSA has had significant delays in payment in the past years and many have opted to terminate the relationship. With regards to possible financial support, the recent sanctions imposed by the US, combined with PDVSA’s default on its international commitments, have destroyed the company’s credit rating and thus increased the cost of financing to unmanageable levels.

For all these reasons, the decline in total Venezuelan oil production has been unavoidable. Unfortunately, it seems that the trend will not only not be reverted in the short term but will worsen further. A few weeks ago, President Maduro launched a series of strong attacks against the company, claiming that PDVSA was responsible for the country’s current economic crisis. Using the attorney general, appointed personally by him, the government has presented dubious indictments and illegally detained technical executives of PDVSA. Those arrested have been accused on public television, with no right to legitimate defence and with no access to the prosecution files; furthermore, they have been isolated and have allowed no contact with their families. The workforce is demoralised and scared of political persecution, something that has been aggravated by the company’s militarisation, as it is now filled with uniformed military personnel and members of the National Guard who are close to the new CEO.

Given this context in which it is difficult to imagine production being restored, the stabilisation of oil prices might afford new opportunities to PDVSA. But in order to take advantage of the new situation it would vital for the company to focus on restoring the morale and technical capacity of its workforce, a necessary first step to address all other issues.

About the author:
*Asier Achutegui, Independent consultant

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute