Repsol said Wednesday it has made two new discoveries in the Russia’s Karabashsky blocks, in the West-Siberian Ouriyinskoye field.

The recoverable resources from the Gabi-1 and Gabi-3 wells are estimated by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation at 240 million barrels of oil equivalent, a considerable addition to the resources Repsol currently holds in Russia.

The Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, Sergei Donskoi said this find is the biggest made in Russia in the last two years.

The use of modern seismic techniques to detect these potential resources has allowed Repsol to make these significant finds in a relatively unexplored area of West Siberia.

The discoveries confirm Repsol’s expectations of its Russian operations, where it is developing one of its key strategic projects, the AROG joint venture, together with Alliance Oil.

The exploratory success obtained in Russia adds to the successes during the last year in the United States, Latin America and Africa which added resources that will boost reserves over the coming years as they are developed.

In 2013, Repsol posted the highest reserve replacement rate amongst its peers at 275%, which also beat the company’s own reserve addition targets for a third consecutive year to reach a total 1.515 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Repsol has boosted its exploratory activity in the last few years with significant success, with more than 50 discoveries since 2008, including some of the world’s largest finds in the period.

Repsol in Russia

Repsol has been exploring the Karabashsky 1 and 2 blocks since 2010. In 2011 it created a joint venture with Alliance Oil, called AROG, which is a growth platform for both companies in Russia, combining the knowledge and access to exploration and production opportunities of Alliance Oil in the country with the experience and technological capacity of Repsol, including new drilling techniques.

During 2013, Russia contributed 14,600 barrels of oil equivalent a day to Repsol’s production. This has risen to 17,640 boepd in 2014 with the startup of new gas wells on the SK field.

The post Repsol Makes Russia’s Largest Hydrocarbons Discovery In Two Years appeared first on Eurasia Review.

He could have chosen an easier path in life. After all, Howard G. Buffett is the son of brainy investor, Warren Buffett. Instead, he chose to become a working farmer in Decatur, Illinois and launch a serious effort to fight world hunger in poor countries and in the United States (where 50 million humans are “food insecure”) with self-sustaining, locally-rooted solutions.

In so doing, he has made substantive visits to over 120 countries, some of which were in the most dangerous, chaotic regions of the world including Eastern Congo to the South Sudan to violent areas of Afghanistan. He interacts with local farmers on the most minute aspects of soil, water and seeds plus the problems of credit, transportation and finding local markets.

You see, Howard Buffett is a determined empiricist and a self-taught agronomist. He wants to know what is working well with the land and what can be improved, sometimes with the help of his foundation, but always with the real changes coming from the local cultures and local famers.

His group has experimental farms in Arizona and South Africa to analyze, test and improve the diverse chains of food production for the nearly one billion adults and children in the world who suffer from chronic hunger and the lifelong physical and developmental burdens. From all this constant traveling deep into the afflicted places where subsistence farmers live, “his body has taken a terrific beating,” in the words of one knowledgeable person who has been with him on a few of these trips.

Years ago (he is 59 years old) Howard Buffett started his travels as an experienced photographer of endangered species, such as the cheetah and the mountain gorilla. These adventures in wilderness habitats and the “experiences of the poor,” introduced him to his more recent calling, to take on world hunger.

I know this from reading his fascinating, critical, encouraging, often anthropological, new book Forty Chances (Simon & Schuster, 2013), which recounts, with his own photographs of the young and old, the Howard G. Buffett Foundation’s efforts to help get things underway and make a difference in places where people are suffering the most. He is not reluctant to admit mistakes; he learns from them and starts fresh.

His father wrote these words in the Foreword of Forty Chances: “Howie’s love of farming makes his work particularly helpful to the millions of abject poor whose only hope is the soil. His fearlessness has meanwhile exposed him to an array of experiences more common to adventurers than philanthropists.”

This is a book with great empathy and little ideology.  Mr. Buffett opposes hedge funds being able to purchase large tracts of agrarian land in Africa as this has a long-lasting damaging impact on the people of those countries.

Howard Buffett writes that “we need to act with urgency. People are dying and suffering today.” He quotes his father’s advice: “Concentrate your resources on needs that would not be met without your efforts … Expect to make some mistakes; nothing important will be accomplished if you make only ‘safe’ decisions.”

Throughout the book, it is clear that Buffett believes in advancing solutions that are localized and lasting, rather than putting forth charity that is temporary, external and induces dependency, or worse, becomes an inducement for corrupt seizure of the food by the local powers.

Forty Chances is rich with engrossing details. Buffett believes in utilizing or rediscovering old knowledge from these rural areas as well as using appropriate modern technologies that are affordable. “We can’t use Western thinking to solve African challenges,” he writes. Still, he is big on no-till techniques and cover crops.

Buffett’s poignant chapter on hunger in Illinois brought forth his admission that he hadn’t realized how “widespread and yet hidden it was,” there and around our country.

He has visited and been impressed by the Rodale Institute’s work on organic food in Pennsylvania. Yet, he uses and believes GMO crops are necessary to meet the growing demands of the world’s hungry. I look forward to the empiricism of the open-minded Mr. Buffett as he receives reports from scientists and field analysts here and abroad whose opinions differ from his, among them being the increasing evidence of resistance by mutating weeds and insects that will require ever more powerful and costly herbicide and pesticide applications (see genewatch.org).

I recommend his 411 page book for immersion reading, especially for urban and suburban people who have little understanding of what has to be done to get food to people who cannot casually drive to the local supermarket and stock up.

And stay tuned to the widening efforts (such as helping East Congolese “make soap from palm nut oil”) of Howard Buffett and his widening arc of small, informed self-starters on four continents. They are serious about implementing workable solutions. As long as he does not go too hard on himself personally and can avoid being ‘too busy’ to achieve more, I believe that the best of Howard G. Buffett is yet to come.

The post Ralph Nader: The Other Buffett Takes On Hunger – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

A newly-sanctified, 50-metre-tall Christian cross in the Macedonian capital is not intended to provoke religious tensions in a country with a large Muslim minority, its backer says.

The towering cross in the Aerodrom municipality of Skopje, which was sanctified this week, is a cultural artefact and not meant to cause religious or ethnic offence, said Todor Petrov, the head of the World Macedonian Congress, the NGO behind its construction.

“The cross is not erected to provoke and it is not an anti-Albanian or anti-Muslim symbol,” Petrov said.

“On the contrary, the cross is an inseparable part of Macedonian culture and belongs to the Albanians as much as it belongs to the Macedonians, because both peoples have Christians and Muslims among them,” Petrov insisted.

The cross, which stands in a predominantly ethnic Macedonian municipality of Skopje, has attracted some negative reactions from the Albanian Muslim minority in the capital.

It was sanctified on Tuesday in the presence of the head of the Macedonian Orthodox Church, Archbishop Stefan, and Skopje mayor Koce Trajanovski.

The majority of the country’s population are Macedonians, who are Orthodox Christians. Most of the country’s ethnic Albanians, who make up a quarter of the population, are Muslims.

The decision to approve the cross earlier this year came amid speculation on social networks that a nearby Turkish investment project to build four skyscrapers could invite an influx of Muslim buyers in the ethnically and religiously homogenous Aerodrom municipality.

The building of the giant cross was announced just as the Turkish investors denied rumours that they planned to build a mosque there.

Petrov, who heads an organisation that is seen as close to the main ruling centre-right VMRO DPMNE party, said that the new cross was only intended to beautify that part of Skopje.

“Albanians should not fear of some kind of ‘inquisition’ against them because the greatness of our civilisation lies in the universality of its values. Those values are peace and love, tolerance and coexistence, which defy war and segregation,” Petrov said.

The new cross, which was funded by donations, was initially planned to be 33 metres high, to represent Jesus’s age when he died. But during the construction process, it was made bigger.

It is however only the second-largest cross in the capital.

There is already a 66-metre-high cross on top of Mount Vodno near the city. Called the ‘Millennium Cross’, it was erected in 2001 with the help of the government, which at the time was also controlled by the centre-right VMRO DPMNE party.

Macedonia also went through a brief armed conflict in 2001 which saw ethnic Albanian rebels and security forces clash.

A peace deal signed later that year prevented the conflict from turning into an all-out ethnic war. The accord offered greater rights to country’s Albanians.

The cross was built by donations. After being sanctified by the Macedonian Orthodox Church this week, its management was officially handed to the municipality of Aerodrom which is run by the ruling VMRO DPMNE.

The post Giant Macedonia Cross ‘Not Anti-Muslim Symbol’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Jeddah on Friday to meet Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah and discuss the crises in Iraq and Syria, Reuters reported.

Addressing a news conference in Brussels on Wednesday, Kerry said: “President Obama has asked me to travel to Saudi Arabia in order to meet with His Majesty King Abdullah and to discuss regional issues, including the situation in Iraq, and how we can counter the shared threat that is posed by ISIL (the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), as well as to discuss our support for the moderate opposition in Syria.”

Kerry last visited the world’s top oil exporter in late March alongside US President Barack Obama.

The post Saudi Arabia King And Kerry To Discuss Iraq, Syria appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Siham Ali

Aware of the need to step up international co-operation to tackle terrorism, Morocco is working to build partnerships with other countries.

The cabinet last week approved a major security agreement with Belgium. The deal aims to prevent, monitor and combat all forms of terrorism, in accordance with the laws of both countries, Budget Minister Driss Azami said.

Under the agreement signed on Thursday (June 19th), Morocco and Belgium will share intelligence and experience, logistical and scientific assistance, and professional training, Azami explained.

The accord with Belgium is not the only one of its kind. Morocco and the United States also signed a partnership deal in the fight against drugs and organised crime.

The agreement inked June 18th in Rabat by national security (DGSN) head Bouchaib Rmail and visiting US Assistant Secretary of State William Brownfield is a “milestone in efforts to build fruitful co-operation between Morocco and the United States” Deputy Interior Minister Charki Draiss said.

Partnerships of this kind help dismantle terrorist networks, the government official added.

No country can tackle terrorism and organised crime on its own, political analyst Samir Najih agreed.

Violent extremism can only be defeated through the sharing of intelligence and expertise between nations, he said.

Vigilance is essential, sociologist Karim Machifi told Magharebia. “Since no country is safe from terrorism, the phenomenon must be tackled through joint, targeted and considered action,” he said.

This is the rationale behind the various agreements that Morocco is signing with several countries, Machifi said.

But these international co-operation initiatives raise the issue of local security partnerships, he noted. Maghreb countries have faced major security threats for years but have not yet managed to implement a concrete regional strategy, he said.

Citizens, meanwhile, noted benefits from the new partnerships. Extremism is blind and must be combated by pooling international efforts, administrative employee Selma Chouikhi told Magharebia.

“A security-based approach is not enough on its own. The root causes of terrorism need to be tackled,” she said.

Development and the promotion of youth employment are the keys to eradicating extremism, Chouikhi added.

The post Morocco Counter-Terror Battle Goes Global appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jemal Oumar

Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz won a second five-year term, the country’s electoral commission said on Sunday (June 22nd).

The sitting president garnered 81.89% of the Saturday ballot, which saw 56.46% voter turnout.

Ould Abdel Aziz beat out four other candidates. According to the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), anti-slavery activist Biram Ould Dah Ould Abeid finished second with 8.67% of the vote.

The opposition National Forum for Democracy and Unity (FNDU) parties boycotted the election, saying it lacked transparency.

In the most prominent statement criticising the election, former president Ely Mohamed Ould Vall told Sky News Arabia on Sunday that the election would consolidate the political hegemony of one person and thus aggravate the country’s political crisis.

“The election was expected to be an opportunity for resolving the political crisis, but unfortunately, it did the opposite; it has aggravated the crisis, blocked all horizons for political solutions and was marred by unilateralism,” he said.

“The opposition realised its goals and succeeded in convincing Mauritanians not to take part in the election,” Ould Mohamed Vall added.

President Ould Abdel Aziz’s win leaves him faced with a host of economic, political and social challenges, including high unemployment among young graduates.

According to analyst Ahmed Ould Ibrahim, the first issue confronting the president is the reaction of the opposition coalition.

“They are heavyweight parties in the political arena, and they refused to take part in the election, and, therefore, won’t accept the resulting government,” Ould Ibrahim told Magharebia. “This threatens more crises.”

“We hope this won’t lead to violent solutions because Mauritania needs stability to forge ahead with development,” he said.

For journalist and political analyst Ahmed Ould Nadief the greatest challenge for the president is how to “honour the promises he made during the election campaign”.

Meanwhile, young people are pinning their hopes on jobs and development to get Mauritania off the list of the world’s poorest countries.

“As a young woman, I hope to see youths integrated into active life,” Kheda Mint Abdou said.

For his part, university student Ali Ould Mohamed Horma said he didn’t attach much hope to the re-election of Ould Abdel Aziz.

“I’m not convinced of the seriousness of Mauritanian political symbols, whether in the government or opposition,” he said.

“Therefore, I didn’t register at election registers from the beginning because I don’t expect to see any change,” the student added.

The post Mauritania President Wins Second Term appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Good evening—Buenas noches.

Muchas gracias Señor Ministro por invitarme a esta cena y por sus cálidas palabras.

I would like to thank Governor Agustín Carstens for hosting a lunch earlier today, rich with excellent food and a lively discussion of global events. I would also like to pay tribute to Undersecretary Fernando Aportela for taking the lead in organizing tomorrow’s important event on financial inclusion. I am pleased to be in the company of renowned guests who are dedicated to promoting financial inclusion. I salute you all for these efforts.

Octavio Paz once said: “Merece lo que sueñas”—a quote from his poem “Haciendo el poema—punto de partida.”The poem is about the process of creation and innovation that inspires poetry.

Mexico abounds with examples of creativity and innovation. Earlier today I had the privilege of meeting with President Peña Nieto, who I would like to thank for graciously inviting me to visit Mexico, in the beautiful and historic Palacio Nacional. There you have a wonderful example of this creativity—of a dream if you will—in the magnificent mural of Mexico’s history, painted by one of the most renowned artists of the 20th century, Mexico’s own Diego Rivera.

In late 2012, the country had a similar moment of inspiration with the Pacto por Mexico—the decision by the major political parties to work together and agree on many far-reaching structural reforms. Mexico needed to kick its growth into higher gear, from the slow pace of 2.3 percent it had seen for the past 15 years.

However, this may already be in the past. Mexico is now looking to the future. As Carlos Fuentes said: “ya que el pasado es irreversible y el futuro incierto — los hombres y las mujeres se quedan sólo con el escenario del ahora — si quieren representar el pasado y el futuro.”

This is indeed the spirit that captures Mexico’s prospects. Mexican men and women are turning their wishes for future prosperity into action today, by supporting the comprehensive package of reforms approved last year. These reforms reflect a commendable effort to tackle structural barriers that are holding back growth.

In fact, Mexico is the only emerging market country that has passed such number of sweeping reforms, in such a short time, and with such broad political support. Perhaps more impressive is that it did not take an economic or financial crisis to invoke these reforms. Instead it took a great deal of leadership, resilience, and determination on the part of the Mexican people to accomplish this. I congratulate you for this major first step.

The reforms are broad-based. Tonight I would like to focus on four areas—labor and products markets, financial system, energy sector and education—because they hold large promise in unleashing Mexico’s growth potential. Think of them as the four pillars.

The first pillar is labor market reforms. These can go a long way in boosting growth. Barriers that aim at protecting workers often work against them in the long run. Why? Because they raise the cost of hiring and firing for firms, pushing them instead toward measures that perpetuate high levels of informality.

The removal of these barriers can inject dynamism in the labor market and avoid the risk of a lost generation. Mexico is already moving in this direction, with a reduction in formal hiring barriers potentially creating 400,000 new jobs—annually.

By the same token, product market reforms are just as important in boosting growth and trade. The telecom and antitrust reforms promise to remove barriers to competition and increase investment to provide broader and cheaper telecommunications services. Research suggests that higher internet use can increase exports in emerging and developing economies.

How about the second pillar—financial sector reform? There is great potential to be tapped from reforms to expand financial services to the “unbanked”—typically the poor, small and new firms, and women. These groups are the most affected by information problems, high cost of service, and lack of collateral.

In Mexico, only 12 percent of the population in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution is served by a formal financial institution. This is compared to 25 percent in Latin America and Caribbean, and 41 percent for the world as a whole. There are clear gains from expanding financial access to under-served groups, especially small entrepreneurs—in terms of higher innovation, job creation, and inclusive growth.

To this we add the impressive energy sector reforms—the third pillar. Opening the energy sector to private investment can bring new technologies to exploit unconventional fields. It can also improve infrastructure and increase the efficiency of electricity generation and distribution. These reforms can significantly reduce energy costs for the country.

Not less critical is the fourth pillar, the education reform. Access to education is an important means to increase access to opportunity. But access to basic education is not enough—it needs to be high quality education. We now know that when children of poor families have access to high quality education, their opportunities for better jobs and higher income are magnified. Their prospects for breaking out of the vicious cycle of poverty are lifted. Measures considered in the current reforms, including those related to teachers’ evaluation and selection process, can pave the way for higher quality education in the future.

Let me come back to the quote by Octavio Paz “Merece lo que sueñas.” The words of poets can take on many different meanings. I could interpret his words as saying: “Dare to dream.”

In embarking on this trajectory of structural reforms, Mexico has dared to dream. And it is now experiencing the creative—and transformative—process of building a new stronger economy. This process does take time. Diego Rivera’s famous mural was painted over many years. Yet we now all admire it as an extraordinary, lasting achievement.

I am confident that Mexico will see the benefits of these reforms in far less time than it took Rivera to finish his mural. But patience is essential. And if the country sees this process through to the end, an even greater number of Mexicans will be able to live their own dreams. Mexico can become the inspiration for the rest of the world to “dare to dream.”

Gracias.

The post Lagarde: Dare to Dream, Structural Reforms In Mexico – Speech appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“Brother, brother,” a young man called on me as I hurriedly left a lecture hall in some community center in Durban, South Africa. This happened at the height of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, when all efforts at stopping the ferocious US-western military drives against these two countries terribly failed.

The young man was dressed in traditional Afghani Pashtun attire, and accompanied by a friend of his. With palpable nervousness, he asked a question that seemed completely extraneous to my lecture on the use of people history to understand protracted historical phenomena using Palestine as a model.

“Brother, do you believe that there is hope for the Muslim Ummah?” He inquired about the future of a nation in which he believed we both indisputably belonged to, and anxiously awaited as if my answer carried any weight at all, and would put his evident worries at ease.

Perhaps more startling than his question is that I was not surprised in the least. His is a intergenerational question that Muslim youth have been asking even before the decline and final collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the last standing Caliphate, by the end of the First World War.

Despite major historical tumults, the Caliphate had remained in consistent existence since the Rashidun Caliphs (the ‘rightly guided’ Caliphs) starting with Abu Bakr in 632 CE, following the death of Prophet Mohammed.

The young man’s questions summoned so much history and a multitude of meanings. Few western historians and ‘experts’ (especially those who attempted to understand Islam for the sake of applying their knowledge for political and military purposes) can possibly fathom the emotional weight of that question.

“Ummah” in the young man’s question doesn’t exactly mean ‘nation’ in the relatively modern nationalistic sense. Muslims are not a race, but come of all races; they don’t share a skin color, or a life style per se, or a common language even if Arabic is the original language of the Holy Koran. Ummah is a ‘nation’ that is predicated on a set of ageless moral values, originated in the Koran, epitomized through the teachings and legacy (Sunnah) of Prophet Mohammed, and guided by Ijtihad “diligence” – explained as the independent reasoning – of Muslim scholars (ulama) based on the Koran and Sunnah.

Naturally, the breakdown of Caliphate created a crisis with too many dimensions. There was the geographic breakdown of the Muslim Ummah, which despite the cultural and linguistic uniqueness of the various groups of that ‘nation’, the Ummah always possessed overriding value-based political and societal frameworks. Based on that old, but constantly revived legacy (thus ‘Ijtihad’), Muslims possessed their own equivalence of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Geneva Conventions, civil codes and much more starting nearly 14 centuries ago.

What was more consequential than the geographic breakdown of the Ummah was the collapse of the very fabric of society, the disintegration of the laws that governed every individual or collective relationship, every commercial transaction, rules regarding the environment, charity, the law of war, and so on. Another dissolution also took place: that of the authentic and organic moral values which allowed the Ummah to persist as many empires failed, and flourish while others decayed. The organic, self-propelled system was replaced by alternatives that have all deteriorated to the very last one.

And that is where the roots of the ‘angry Muslim’ began.

The Ummah continues to live as an ideal which transcends time and place. It persists despite the fact that the last century had taken an incredible toll on all Muslim nations, without exception. Even the success of many nations to gain their independence from the very colonial powers that brought the Caliphate down didn’t in any way tackle the original crisis of the once predominant, all-encompassing Muslim Ummah. Colonized Muslim societies eventually adopted the rules and laws of its former colonizers, and continued to vacillate within their sphere of influence.

Post-independence Muslim nations were a hideous mix of tribalism and cronyism, with a self-serving interpretation of Islam and western laws and civil codes that were all tailored so very carefully to ensure the survival of an utterly corrupt status quo; where local rulers ensure supremacy over defeated, disoriented collectives, and western powers sustain their interests of by all means necessary.

Expectedly, such a status quo couldn’t possibly be sustained. A strong and cohesive civil society had no chance of survival under oppressive regimes, and with the lack of education or opportunity, or both, generations of Muslims endured in utter despair.

As an escape from their immediate woes, many Muslims sought inspiration elsewhere. They saw in Palestine a rally cry, for the ongoing resistance to foreign occupation there was a symbolic indication of a collective pulse. The wide support that Hezbollah (a Shia group) received among Sunni Muslims for its resistance to Israel was an indication that sectarian divides dwarfed when compared to the need for the Muslim Ummah to regroup around principles such as justice, thus reclaiming even if an iota of its past glory.

But it was the US-led western invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq that drew the battle lines like never before. When Baghdad fell in April 2003, and as American soldiers so conceitedly drowned the once capital of the Abbasid Caliphate with their flags, many Muslims felt that their Ummah had reached the lowest depths of humiliation. And while Iraqi men and women were being tortured, raped and filmed dead or naked by smirking US soldiers in Baghdad’s prisons, a whole new nation of angry Muslim youth was on the rise.

Western wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were not the exclusive harbinger of Muslim youth anger, humiliation and the current violence underway in Syria, Iraq, and other Muslim countries. The wars were the catalyst. Picture a group of ‘foreign jihadists’ as they are called, sharing a meal between battles somewhere near northern Iraq and imagine what they possibly have in common: an Iraq tortured in Bucca, a Lebanese who fought the Israelis in south Lebanon, a Syrian whose family had been killed in Aleppo, and so on. But it is not only a Middle Eastern question. The alienation and constant targeting of French and British Muslim immigrants, their mosques, their cultures, languages, their very identity, when coupled with the plight of Muslims everywhere could too have its own violent manifestation as well.

British Prime Minister David Cameron is worried about the threat to the national security of his country as a result of the ongoing strife in Iraq, instigated by territorial gains of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). He doesn’t seem to understand or care to understand his country’s role in the violence.

US President Barack Obama continues to preach from the White House about violence and the moral responsibility of his country as if the destructive and leading role played by Washington in the Middle East is completely removed from the state of hopelessness and humiliation felt by a generation of Muslim youth. It is as if war, foreign occupation and the systematic destruction of an entire civilization – still referred to by many Muslims as an ‘Ummah’ – will come at no price, aside from fluctuating oil prices.

Who are these jihadists? Many continue to ask and persistently attempt to offer answers. CIA agents? Gulf-funded terrorist groups? Misguided youth ushered in by an Iranian conspiracy to justify its appetite for regional hegemony? Foreign jihadists fighting against the Assad regime in Syria?  Or perhaps with the Assad regime against his opposition? Conspiracy theories thrive in time of great mysteries.

However, the alienated ‘angry’ Muslim youth is hardly a mystery, but a fully comprehendible historical inevitability. For many of them, even if they insist otherwise, the Ummah and Caliphate is more of incorporeal spaces than actual geographical boundaries. It is an escape to history, from poverty, alienation, oppression and foreign occupations. To understand that is to truly tackle the roots of violence. Ignoring it cannot possibly be an option.

The post Reverting To The Ummah: Who Is The ‘Angry Muslim’ And Why – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Claudia E. Barrett

The Mexican drug war has been punctuated by police success in arresting high-profile narcotics traffickers. Last February, the arrest of elusive figure Joaquin El Chapo (Shorty), head of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, made international headlines and heightened the morale of both Mexican and U.S. authorities. Nevertheless, for many Mexican citizens, there is significant doubt that El Chapo’s arrest will have a substantial detrimental impact on the operations of the Sinaloa cartel, or on the brimming inventory of other drug traffickers that continue to wreak havoc in Mexico.[1] The organizations have proven to be a force as relentless as the mythological hydra; chop off the head, and two more grow back in its place.

This situation was best demonstrated with the July 2013 arrest of the particularly violent drug lord Miguel Ángel Treviño, leader of Los Zetas, another Mexican cartel. Hailed as a major success by the Mexican military, Los Zetas quickly recovered its balance, choosing Omar Treviño Morales as its new successor. Unfortunately for the Zetas, the younger Morales brother lacks the leadership skills and legitimacy of the deceased kingpin and has floundered in the midst of police take downs of Los Zetas members and serious competition elsewhere in the criminal world. [2] *Like most criminal organizations, Los Zetas has a complex network of individuals propping up the illicit cartels in case one of its leaders falters.

Although Los Zetas has retained a stronghold in 11 of Mexico’s 31 states even through numerous captures, the organization is losing its grasp of events along the United States-Mexico border, particularly in the area surrounding Nuevo Laredo in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas. It would appear that the bulk of the threats to Los Zetas come from within the drug trafficking network and criminal world, not from the government or its security forces. High profile arrests tend to enable the rise of third party groups, which consequently have the effect splintering, or dividing the cartels into smaller bodies. This splintering, which was once a beneficial manner of evading capture has now caused Los Zetas to fall prey to these smaller, but brutally violent, imitation gangs[3]. For example, one splinter group, Los Legionarios, has successfully managed to threaten Los Zetas by driving the remnants of the cartel out of its territory and interfering with their shipment routes[4]. Therefore, the loss of the group’s leader is not the biggest hindrance for such cartels; rather, the largest risk can be attributed to other trafficking groups becoming adept at mimicking tactics, and subsequently using them to challenge established trafficking organizations.

To make matters worse, the very means through which the U.S. and Mexican governments combat the cartels is not necessarily conducive to long-term prevention of drug trafficking. In Colombia, splintering can be observed with Los Rastrojos, a criminal syndicate and drug trafficking group that has been losing influence for some time, especially after 46 of its about 1,500 members were arrested in late May [5]. As a defensive strategy against anticipated government raids, they have decentralized. Additionally, they have found rivals in insurgent groups, such as the drug trafficking organization Los Urabeños, who have gained more cohesiveness as a group and thus are able to effectively sell and transport products while waging a violent street war against the scattered Rastrojos[6].

Looking at Colombia as a case study, a country where drug trafficking is in decline, it is evident that rival gangs have been able to weaken cartels. When their leaders were arrested, the Colombian cartels were only slightly disempowered, as the drug lords were able to continue to run the business from prison (the case of the famous Pablo Escobar from the Medellin Cartel comes to mind). The remaining members realized that the large cartel was more vulnerable to government attack and therefore chose to fragment into smaller divisions, which put them at the mercy of leftist insurgency groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC[7]. This breakdown of Colombian cartels enabled similar Mexican groups to take the lead in the drug trafficking world. The same pattern of splintering cartels is presently happening in Mexico. While government pressure from Mexico City and Washington seems to serve as a catalyst for the collapse of cartels, decentralization is the most debilitating factor as it allows third party actors to attack the remains of the drug organization.

In Colombia, many suspect that the mass arrests’ close proximity to the country’s presidential elections that intensified on May 25 was an effort to increase President Juan Manuel Santos’ popularity[8]. Major busts frequently occur in collaboration with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), which provides funding, police training, and even conducts raids. This suggests that local forces save their drug busting energies for appeasing the American government while often turn a blind eye to traffickers on a daily basis. The threat of arrest and product confiscation exists and causes multiple fractures among drug trafficking organizations. Police raids may have the initial effect of punching holes in cartels but ultimately these groups are at greater risk from other criminal gangs.

Indeed, U.S., Colombian, and Mexican policies of backing “ally” cartels have failed to create an entirely inhospitable environment for drug traffickers. Proportionally lower rates of incarceration among the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel members can be linked to the preferential treatment they normally receive from the authorities. For several years, Mexican authorities have encouraged the Sinaloa Cartel to antagonize the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas, who are perceived to be more threatening.[9] Therefore, the authorities’ actions have escalated an already brutal street war over territory and power[10]. According to El Universal and Time Magazine, the United States is reported to have met with the leadership of the Sinaloa Cartel over 50 times between 2000 and 2012, permitting them to carry on its business unhindered by the DEA in exchange for information about rival organizations[11]. The Sinaloa Cartel has grown substantially more powerful and, as a result has managed to control police through threats and bribes.[12] Instead of working to weaken the cartels comprehensively, the Mexican government is disabling one cartel while unintentionally building up another. This is a short-sighted strategy that will do little to de-incentivize drug trafficking in the long term.

Drug trade continues to be highly profitable in Latin America, yet the cartel culture that has been so pervasive for the last 30 years is gradually weakening. After the patterns of violence that seem to inevitably follow the breakdown of the cartel system diminish, it is likely that this trend of cartel decentralization will pave the way for an increasingly stable situation that can be more adequately handled by police and other security forces.

Claudia E. Barrett, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

References

[1] . Estevez, Dolia . “How Much is Mexican Corruption a Risk to Keeping Drug Lord El Chapo Guzman Behind Bars.” . http://www.forbes.com/sites/doliaestevez/2014/05/13/how-much-is-mexican-corruption-a-risk-to-keeping-drug-lord-el-chapo-guzman-behind-bars-at-home/ (accessed May 30, 2014).

[2] Del Bosque , Melissa . “Brother of Zetas Catel Boss Given Maximum Sentence .” Texas Observer , September 5, 2013.

[3] Stewart, Scott, and Tristan Reed . “Mexico’s Zetas are Not Finished Yet.” Forbes Magazine, October 24, 2013.

[4]“Sangre Zeta and Other New Groups Complicate Drug War.” . Borderland Beat, 3 Mar. 2013. Web. 1 Mar. 2014. .

[5]“Rastrojos.” . Insight Crime , n.d. Web. 1 Mar. 2014. .

[6]Stewart, Scott, and Tristan Reed . “Mexico’s Zetas are Not Finished Yet.” Forbes Magazine, October 24, 2013

[7]Public Broadcast Station . “Columbian Cartels.” . http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/business/inside/colombian.html (accessed May 30, 2014).

[8] BBC News, “Colombia: Rastrojos Members Held in Barranquilla Raid,” May 31, 2014.

[9]Burnett, John . “Mexico’s Drug War: A Rigged Fight?.”

[10] Insight Crime . “Sinaloa Cartel Profile .” . http://www.insightcrime.org/profile-groups-mexico/sinaloa-cartel-mexico (accessed June 4, 2014).

[11] Liljas , Per . “U.S Government Helped Rise of Mexican Drug Cartel: Report.” Time Magazine , January 14, 2014.

[12] Burnett, John . “Mexico’s Drug War: A Rigged Fight?.” . http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126890838 (accessed May 30, 2014).

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Uruguay’s football team has been left toothless in the World Cup after FIFA imposed a nine-match ban on striker Luis Suarez for taking a bite out of his Italian opponent. Uruguay will reportedly appeal the decision, which also comes with a large fine.

Uruguayan fans on Thursday were outraged at FIFA’s punishment for Suarez for the Tuesday incident, when the striker bit Italian defender Giorgio Chiellini’s shoulder.

Uruguay’s FA vice president Jorge Barrera said they will appeal the record-breaking and harsh ban, according to local media quoted by Reuters.

Suarez, who is a popular player in the Latin American country, was banned from playing for nine matches in a row, additionally suspended from any football-related activity for four months and fined 100,000 Swiss francs ($111,000).

“Such behavior cannot be tolerated on any football pitch, and in particular not at a FIFA World Cup when the eyes of millions of people are on the stars on the field,” Claudio Sulser, chairman of the FIFA Disciplinary Committee, said in a statement.

The striker, who scored a crucial goal in Tuesday’s game, will be unable to take part in any match during the tournament. As FIFA’s decision has come into immediate effect, he will also miss the scheduled match against Colombia in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.

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Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko calls for early elections to local self-government bodies after amendments to the constitution take effect. “Ukraine should hold early local elections following the adoption of constitutional amendments so that the elected leaders of territorial communities assume new powers and new responsibility,” Poroshenko said at a session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on Thursday.

Elected lawmakers would form local councils, which would in turn form an executive committee, he said.

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada registered a presidential bill amending the constitution on Thursday.

The key element of the amendments concerns the decentralization of the governance system in Ukraine and the expansion of local self-government powers.

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It doesn’t look good when States give the proverbial finger to the Washington establishment. The old constitutional woes surface; the contest around autonomy, and the federal compact, surface. Is the central government authorised to meddle, shape and alter what might be the purview of states?

Education remains one such area. It is absent in the Constitution. The framers may well have been privy to the role of the press, the necessity to prevent factional disagreement through checks and balances, and protect general liberties associated with the person. But the idea of a central educations system was still embryonic.

This has not stopped the Federal government exerting its control with standardised procedures, deemed a utopia of education excellence. In 1965, Lyndon B. Johnson, during a period of heavy federalising, came up with his Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA). In 2009, President Barack Obama came up with “Race to the Top” funds. It was, however, the 1983 publication A Nation at Risk by the National Commission on Excellence and Education that shone the brightest of spotlights on the urgency of a common state-wide platform.

Unfortunately, it has been shown that such measures, however well intentioned, can implode in its air of presumption. Programs such as the No Child Left Behind were critically deficient, mere demagoguery in action. Meddling became deconstructing. Which brings us to the latest program – that of the Common Core national standards and curriculum, termed in some circles the Common Core State Standards (CCSS).

The program has involved forty-five states, the District of Columbia, four US territories, and the Department of Defense Education Activity. It has its genesis in the work of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Governors Association (Guardian, Feb 10). Given the fact that the Department of Education cannot by law, direct, control or supervise elementary and secondary school curricula, a sweetener for adopting the guidelines was added: Race to the Top Grants would be awarded to those adopting the Common Core standards.

Since its commencement, opposition from across the political spectrum, be it from disgruntled teacher unions, or politicians concerned by the usurping powers of Washington, has gathered some indignant steam.

Conservative pundits such as Glenn Beck have taken to the airwaves with suggestions that the Common Core is a Stalinist platform, a doctrinaire’s mandate: “Kids are being indoctrinated with extreme leftist ideology” (Glennbeck.com, Mar 14). Much of Beck’s spouting is based on the staple paranoia that is indispensable to American political debate, but like all paranoid narratives, some grains of verity do exist.

On the surface of it, the revolt has been primarily from the Red states, and those associated with GOP or Tea Party sentiment. Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, Alabama have all taken back steps implementing the program. Oklahoma has gone even further, saying it will withdraw from the program altogether. But it is worth noting that New York, that blue pocket of Democratic existence, has been resisting as well.

The problems with the common core system lie at several levels. There is a structural deficiency – funding, matters of process, and the rationale of outsourcing. States, seeing a chance to receive funding, swallowed the proceeds without wise implementation. These were also states which have had a good share of poor-performing students.

As ever with management, the issue is not results in fact, but results on paper. The paper is the world, the reality, the nominal fact. The abysmal reality of education in the US is that discussions of any Common Core take place in an imposed vacuum. Social environments, and by virtue of that, realities, are excluded in favour of artificial engineering. The sense that Common Core was created, not through a discussion with politicians and parents, but a sterile laboratory process, is hard to dispel.

This shows. The Common Core was, as Jose Vilson (Sep 12, 2013) put it, a “package deal with the new teacher evaluations, higher stakes testing, and austerity measures, including mass school closings.” Funding and defunding have occurred, with standards being used as the band aid that inadequately patches the wounded patient. Standards, as the New Jersey decisions in Abbott v Burke remind us, are on their own insufficient, the leanest of straw men. Without resources, students might as well stay home.

Furthermore, the Gates Foundation got busy investing in a program with the guidance, not of educators and those within the school system, but corporations priding themselves on mantras of lobbying and reform. Achieve Inc., the key drafter of Common Core, proudly trumpets itself as “the only education reform organisation led by a board of directors and business leaders” (Guardian, Feb 10).

The picture tends to get bleaker, given that the standardised tests are contracted to companies ever keen to get a profit at the expense of education. Such companies, Pearson foremost amongst them, have become fixtures of the classroom set. In yet another demonstration that the private sector often fails, rather than adopts, the best practices and policies, instances of maladministration, missing tests and general incompetence in handling grades have characterised the process. Pearson has also been in the soup for using charitable funds to promote for-profit products.

The tests themselves have seen an extraordinary attack of abstraction on what should be elementary problems. Laboratory language, the stuff of test tube logic and managerialism, has displaced that of instructive pedagogy. The management speak of Frederick Winslow Taylor has come home to roost in the school system. Terms like subtraction and edition are ditched in favour of “decrease” and “increase”. Children were, as Alec Torres explains, bored by “word problems” which are now replaced by “math situations”. “Carry the one” is replaced by, “Regroup ten ones as a ten” (National Review, Mar 20).

There are also changes of emphasis that suggest the embrace of blunt, uninformed technocracy over literacy – a move away from literature proper in the form of dusty classics to the literature of management and governance (government documents, dry and dreary “informational texts”).

Things have become so dire that former Congressman Ron Paul has advanced his own model, focusing on solid areas he feels will provide ample paving for the rocky road of education. The primary focus here is on homeschooling centred on three tracks: natural science and maths; social sciences and humanities; and business (Fits News, Jun 23).

In a country which is becoming increasingly ungovernable, education remains, along with welfare and poverty, the great handicaps of the US. A country that has the means of deploying forces across the globe in any location in a matter of hours has troubles ensuring safe school environments and equitable access. Bureaucrats and managers have, in their characteristic way, shown the way on a central, standardised measure, a system of splendid isolation rather than general application. As it stands, it is bound to fall flat.

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor should accept a request from the Central African Republic government to open a new investigation into serious crimes committed in the country.

On May 30, 2014, the interim president, Catherine Samba-Panza, formally asked the ICC prosecutor to open an investigation, acknowledging that Central African courts are not in a position to carry out the necessary investigations.

“Everyone involved in the horrific crimes in the Central African Republic should know there is a price to pay for committing atrocities,” said Daniel Bekele, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “The ICC prosecutor should accept the government’s request, investigate crimes by all parties, and help provide a sense of justice for the victims.”

The Central African Republic has been in a state of acute crisis since March 2013, when the Seleka, a predominantly Muslim rebel coalition, seized power and began killing civilians, burning and looting homes, and committing other serious abuses. In mid-2013, a group of predominantly Christian and animist fighters calling themselves the anti-balaka came together to attack the Seleka, but have committed large-scale reprisal attacks against Muslim civilians. Insecurity still reigns, with killings on an almost daily basis.

Over the course of 12 research missions to the Central African Republic since March 2013, Human Rights Watch has documented serious crimes by all parties to the conflict. The crimes include murder and summary executions, deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on the civilian population, torture, cruel and degrading treatment, the destruction of entire villages or neighborhoods, forced displacement, recruitment of child soldiers, and targeting on an ethnic or religious basis. There have also been credible reports of sexual violence, including rape. The crimes have affected hundreds of thousands of people and are serious violations of international law falling within the jurisdiction of the ICC, including crimes against humanity.

In February, the ICC prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, announced that her office had received sufficiently serious allegations of crimes within the court’s jurisdiction to trigger the opening of a preliminary examination. In May, her office sent a team to assess the situation, but she has yet to respond to the interim government’s request.

The ICC already has one case pending in connection with alleged crimes committed in the country between 2002 and 2003 by Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo, a Congolese national and the former vice-president of the Democratic Republic of Congo who was invited to the Central African Republic in 2002 to help resist a coup attempt by François Bozizé, who later became president. The case against Bemba is insufficient to address the current situation.

While Central African Republic government institutions were weak and mismanaged before the Seleka coup, judicial and security structures disappeared almost completely after the rebel coalition seized power in March 2013. When interim President Samba-Panza took office on January 23, 2014, there was not a single properly functioning detention center in the entire country, and courts had stopped working.

Despite efforts to re-establish law and order, law enforcement authorities still lack the authority and means to carry out arrests and there are almost no appropriate and secure detention centers for male suspects. A small prison with 12 female inmates is still functioning in Bimbo, near Bangui.

Many judicial authorities have been unable to resume work. Most courthouses and detention facilities outside the capital, Bangui, have been destroyed or looted, and court and security officials have either abandoned their posts or are not working due to lack of pay or threats to their lives. In November 2013 a senior judge, Modeste Martineau Bria, was gunned down in a street in Bangui by former Seleka fighters. In Bangui, court officials are slowly beginning to return to their posts but are struggling to resume work in unsecured and ill-equipped facilities.

On April 9, interim president Samba-Panza issued a decree that establishes a special investigative cell to investigate crimes committed in the country since January 1, 2004. The unit, which will consist of prosecutors, investigative judges, and police investigators, is tasked with identifying people responsible for crimes and building cases against them for trial. Its initial focus will be on the most recent crimes. Establishment of the specialized unit is an important step toward ensuring accountability, Human Rights Watch said.

The government appointed senior staff for the unit on June 20, but it still needs resources and logistical support to begin its work. It also needs adequate security and sufficient independence to look into abuses committed by both the Seleka and the anti-balaka.

“There can be no durable peace in the Central African Republic unless law and order are restored,” Bekele said. “The government of the Central African Republic should cooperate with any ICC investigation. The UN and international donors need to provide urgent financial and technical support to assist the interim government in restarting the country’s judicial system and get the special investigative cell up and running.”

On April 10, the UN Security Council approved the deployment of a peacekeeping force, MINUSCA, to the Central African Republic. It is to become operational in mid-September. The peacekeepers should help the government document crimes, apprehend and detain suspects, and carry out investigations and prosecutions, Human Rights Watch said. Until then, French, African Union, and EU forces should help the government with basic law-and-order functions.

“A commitment to accountability will reassure victims that justice will be done, not by lynch mobs on the streets, but under the law,” Bekele said. “Trials will not happen overnight, but the government and international community need to send a strong signal that ongoing abuses will not be tolerated.”

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By Yağmur Erşan

Taiwan is an island with a total area of 36,980 sq. km and population of 23,359,928. It is located in South East Asia among the island chains of Eastern Asia, and bordered to the east by the Pacific Ocean. Regarding its political and economic system, Taiwan has gradually adopted democracy and a liberal economy since the 1950s. As a result of its economic development, it is accepted as one of the “Asian Tigers”. Considering this, Taiwan is a striking country in the region both for its developing economy and democratic system.

Taiwan’s Culture

There is a duality in Taiwanese culture that on the one hand, Taiwanese people are very traditional and try to preserve their unique culture, but on the other hand, they are attempting to integrate into the international community. With this in mind, one of the most monumental buildings in Taiwan is the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall, which was built by the citizens and overseas Chinese as a testament to their respect and remembrance of their leader Chiang Kai-shek and his principles. The architectural design of each part of the Hall represents the Chinese culture. Its construction took four years and was completed in March 1980. The three principles of Chiang Kai-shek, represented by the three words of “Ethics”, “Democracy” and “Science” are written on the walls of many parts of the Hall. Those three words are the essence of Chiang’s political thought, thus, people have adopted them into their lives. “Ethics” represents the ‘peoples’ connection and relation’, or nationalism, so that they may appreciate their national values and impart them to their children. “Democracy” represents the people’s power, or government by the people, so that they may appreciate their democratic way of life and believe that this democratic way of life differentiates them from the Chinese on mainland China. “Science” represent the people’s welfare and livelihood, so that they may not only follow modern and current scientific or technological developments, but also invest in the scientific developments and technology of the future.

Moreover, the Taiwanese are religious people whose temples are natural parts of the cities’ silhouettes. Every hour, many people of all different ages can be seen in the temples practicing their religious rituals.

Taiwan’s Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs)

Taiwan is one of the most striking countries in the region due to its developing economy. According to the 2013 statistics, its annual economic growth rate is 2.2 percent. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $926.4 billion and its per capita income is $39,600. Taiwan makes an effort to develop its economy because it is believed that the more its economy is developed the more the welfare of Taiwan will increase.

Since the 1950s, Taiwan has been implementing step by step liberalization in trade, investment and the foreign exchange and interest rates. As in many countries, these liberalization policies have their own advantages and disadvantages. Taiwan believes that in order to not be affected negatively by these liberal policies, Taiwan’s economy should act proactively by strengthening its domestic industrial structure, increasing the quality of its working environments, becoming more attractive for investment and upgrading industrial technology. However, one of the most crucial obstacles to the further economic development of Taiwan is its lack of free trade agreements due to its international status.

Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs) basically refer to the opening up of a small part of the economy to the outside, and if successful, the opening up of the whole economy. As Regina Yeushyang Chyn from the National Development Council stated, “it is going through small to large regarding liberalization.” The key ideas are liberalization, internationalization and forward looking. The Taiwanese approach to FEPZs is; regarding liberalization, the alteration of regulations to facilitate industrial development and to decrease the government’s guidance; for internationalization, making reference to high standard Foreign Trade Agreements (FTAs); for forward looking, taking advantage of Taiwan’s geographic and technological advantages and utilizing innovative industrial operations for promoting economic development. Therefore, this approach focuses on international health care, value-added agriculture, education innovation and smart logistics.

Taiwan’s Contribution to the Regional and International System

Taiwan is one of the most significant countries in providing humanitarian aid and assistance to its partner countries. It pursues various projects with more than fifty countries from Africa, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Central Asia, America and Europe. It gives importance to international cooperation and aims to bestow some of the “Taiwan Experience” to the international community. To this end, the Taiwan International Cooperation and Development Fund (TaiwanICDF) was established by the government in 1996. It is responsible for putting the government’s foreign aid policies into practice. Guided by a philosophy of “progress, development and humanity”, this organization aims to advance the causes of cooperation and development, decrease poverty and strengthen human rights in partner countries. They have five operational priorities which form the basis of their work: agriculture, public health, education, information and communication technology and environmental protection. Taiwan seeks to use its own development experiences and know-how when promoting foreign aid, carrying out a great number of projects and pursuing inclusive growth. It also works with international governmental organizations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration, in addition to cooperating with international NGOs such as Food for the Poor, Mercy Corps and the Organization of American States.

Moreover, Taiwan is a crucial country in its contribution to regional and international peace. In this sense, developing cross-strait relations between mainland China is one of the most important issues. Taiwan established a foundation for this aim called the Straits Exchange Foundation, which acts like an intermediary organization. Although it is a private foundation, it is funded by the government and aims to deal with all cross-strait issues. Its counterpart in the PRC is the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). These organizations have a record of great achievements in developing relations between the two, seen in the launching of direct flights, allowing families to see each other and increasing the number of visits, with 7 million people coming to the Republic of China Taiwan (ROC) and 25 million people going to mainland China. Here, they state their goal as “to establish peaceful relations for the better future for our future generations.”

Taiwan’s Contribution to the Development of New Technology

Another important point is that Taiwan works diligently to create and develop new technology. It invests in the sectors of electronics, communication and information technology products, chemicals, machinery and agricultural products among others.

Moreover, Taiwan invests in medical technology and since 2008 the government has been supportive of medical tourism. Taiwan is usually ranked within the top five countries in international health care surveys as it was for the second time in a row with the 2000 World Health Care Ranking conducted by The Economist. For medical tourism, Taiwan’s primary target region is mainland China seeing that the life standard of the people there has been increasing, therefore they can afford expensive operations and surgeries in Taiwan. People come to Taiwan for medical treatment with the help of media, travel agencies specialized in health care or cosmetic itineraries, medical tourism facilitators, local hospital representatives or health insurance companies. Taiwan’s health expenditure in 2008 was approximately $1,014 per capita and of this figure, nearly 90% was allocated to personal medicine. Broken down, this percentage is made up of 51.84% for hospital expenses, 26.56% for clinic costs and 15.79% for the family purchases of medical products and equipment. In 2007, Taiwan’s health expenditures contributed 6.0% to its GDP, which is still low when compared to the rates of the U.S. (16.0%) and Japan (8.0%) in 2007.

To conclude, due to its liberal and developing economy, and democratic and peaceful environment both the regional and international powers are willing to develop their relations with Taiwan. Taiwan also grants a great deal of importance to the development its relations with the international community. For this purpose, they organize exchange programs and common projects with partners, providing humanitarian aid and assistance. Moreover, because of its modern education and health systems, the number of people coming to the country for education and medical treatment has been increasing. For all of these reasons, I hope that in the coming future Taiwan will be a more important player in regional and international dynamics.

*http://www.medicaltravel.org.tw/en/index.aspx

*https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html

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By Miki Trajkovski

A decision by Macedonia, Bulgaria and Croatia to link their stock exchanges is expected to make their work more efficient and attract more capital to the region. The three stock markets established a joint company based in Skopje with the hopes that other stock exchanges in the region will also join.

“The idea is to create a common platform that will enable redirection of the trading orders from the Zagreb and Sofia stock exchanges to the Macedonian stock exchange and vice versa,” Ivan Shteriev, chief executive officer of the Macedonian stock exchange in Skopje, told SETimes.

“We believe regional securities that way will increase their attractiveness in the Balkans and beyond.”

Shteriev said mostly domestic investors have so far traded stocks, and enabling institutional networking with other regional markets has become a priority.

The move will create a direct channel through which brokers will monitor what happens in other stock markets and will increase investors’ interest, which used to be dependent on collaboration among brokers, he added.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will finance the purchasing of software that will link the stock markets and create a common website. The move will increase liquidity and increase the visibility and attractiveness of the three capital markets, said Sanda Kuhtic Nalis, spokeswoman for the Zagreb Stock Exchange.

“Consolidation of the capital markets is an inevitable trend. Investors are looking for simplicity, and fragmentation of the regional capital markets is certainly an aggravating circumstance,” Nalis told SETimes.

Nalis also said the next phase will include developing the infrastructure for exchange of stock orders.

The move will simplify investment, because Croatian investors, for example, can discuss investments in the other two countries with a broker in Zagreb, said Iztok Likar, editor of hrportfolio.com, a popular financial portal in Croatia.

“Investors need common stocks that they will be able to trade from all of these countries, because that way they will more easily approach investment opportunities in the region,” Likar told SETimes.

The tendency is to attract investors on a regional basis, said Ivan Takev, director of the Bulgarian stock exchange.

“Simplicity, efficiency and engagement of all stakeholders ensures success of this project,” Takev said.

The Istanbul stock exchange, the largest in the region, supports increased regional connections among the stock markets and is ready to co-operate, said Cetin Donmez, executive vice president of the Istanbul stock exchange.

“Regarding co-operation among regional markets, we can also add global players,” Donmez said.

Correspondent Kruno Kartus in Osijek contributed to this report.

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By Vikram Sood

In the early days of the Cold War, nationalism was a particularly bad word in underdeveloped or developing countries, whose primary purpose was to service the First World and fulfil its economic and security needs.

So when Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh got too patriotic and nationalised his country’s oil, the CIA had to correct this audacious behaviour by ensuring that US oil companies got 40 per cent of the former British concession in Iran and restoring the Shah to the Peacock Throne.

The venerable New York Times editorially conveyed a significant message to the rest of the world (August 6, 1954). It said, “Underdeveloped countries with rich resources now have an object lesson in the heavy cost that must be paid by one of their number which goes berserk with fanatical nationalism.

It is perhaps too much to hope that Iran’s experience will prevent the rise of Mossadegh’s in other countries but that experience may at least strengthen the hands of more reasonable and more far seeing leaders….”

Such leaders were expected to clearly understand America’s overriding concerns and those who failed would have to suffer. The NYT has not changed its attitude, nor have global American interests; only the methods now used can include private militarised NGOs.

Intelligence agencies are required to protect and further a country’s interests. The CIA was doing precisely this when it began to cultivate Ford and Rockefeller Foundations early in the 1950s in the national effort against an ideological, military, economic and cultural threat from Communism.

The Ford Foundation has been a generous donor to the effort. The Rockefeller Foundation funded the CIA’s MK-ULTRA (Manchurian Candidate) project of mind-control research. In America there never was or is anything demeaning or ignoble if the private sector contributed to the national cause.

The CIA faced a hostile Congress in the 1970s following the Watergate scandal, leading to budgetary and operational constraints. The creation of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in 1983 was designed to circumvent Congressional restrictions. The CIA worked closely with the NED through a long list of front organisations ostensibly for spreading democracy.

William Blum, not exactly a favourite in Washington DC, had said that the NED meddled in the internal affairs of numerous foreign countries. They gave money, technical know-how, training, and equipment to selected political groups, civic organisations, dissident movements, publishers, newspapers and other media. Intelligence establishments all over the world do operate through some front companies, organisations and NGOs. This is par for the course.

These are useful for collection of intelligence or in an intelligence operation, like in the case of the hunt for Osama bin Laden; the Russians recently complained that the CIA was inciting the Ukrainians through some NGOs while playing down their own NGOs, and the Egyptians had concerns about some of the American NGOs in their country. The Russians too have their own NGOs as do many others.

It is not surprising the Intelligence Bureau had doubts that some NGOs were not furthering Indian interests. A report in the media on this subject had earlier appeared in a newspaper in October 2012. One has noticed that there has been a concerted campaign in India against all energy projects and against coal mining.

There was this campaign against the Jaitapur nuclear power project to be built with French collaboration, against the extension of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant being built with Russian assistance. It is essential to protect the environment and provide alternatives for the displaced, but the progress of a nation cannot be stopped because of this.

NGOs that deter economic progress or infrastructure growth have to be actively discouraged. The agenda and priorities have to be Indian and not determined in some remote western city. The government, in turn, has to be transparent and active in providing solutions to environmental and human problems that invariably arise during the pursuit and as a consequence of these projects. Solutions and safeguards cannot be outsourced to foreign sources, since far too many vested interests are at play here.

Foreign funding should be allowed primarily in those projects where they seek to improve the quality of our human resources through education, skills and health. NGOs in India have been used so far to make up for the perennial deficiencies of the political and bureaucratic leadership to provide solutions to various problems. They should be required to concentrate only on our national priorities determined by us.

(The writer is an Advisor to Observer Research Foundation and a former chief of Research and Analysis Wing)

Courtesy: www.mid-day.com

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It’s been 30 years since the Indian Army conducted its raid on the Sikh Golden Temple at Amritsar. In today’s question and answer session, the CSS’ Prem Mahadevan outlines how the Sikh separatist movement has fared since then and traces the political support it has received from Pakistan.

By Prem Mahadevan

ISN: What are the origins of the Sikh separatist movement in India? Is it right to assume that it was born out the 1947 partition?

Prem Mahadevan: No. The movement did not even originate among the Sikh population of the Indian subcontinent, but much farther afield, among the Sikh diaspora in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. India’s Punjab province, which has a Sikh majority of roughly 60%, has long been a source of migrants to the West. In the 1970s, some of these migrants began agitating for an independent Sikh nation-state, largely because of covert funding provided to them by the Pakistani intelligence service.

The separatist movement actually began in 1971, when the Pakistani Intelligence Bureau, a civilian agency, made contact with the Sikh diaspora in an attempt to encourage secessionist politics in India. In 1978, operational control of these diaspora radicals was transferred from the Pakistan IB to the more powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which could draw upon the resources of the Pakistani army to launch covert paramilitary operations. From 1980, the ISI provided weapon training and target portfolios to small assassin squads, who crossed the border into India and began killing political leaders in a bid to incite fratricidal violence among the Sikh leadership.

Around this point, India’s own fractious domestic politics come into play. In 1978, the same year that the ISI took over sponsorship of Sikh separatism, the Indian Congress Party had begun funding ultra-orthodox Sikh groups in Punjab. By doing so, it hoped to capture a larger share of the conservative Sikh vote, but inadvertently provided the ISI with a platform to introduce separatism as an idea among the Sikh population of India. Before the Congress had fully recognized what was happening, the ultra-orthodox Sikh groups had switched from advocating purely local issues (such as agricultural and employment grievances) to advocating secession from the Indian Republic. The shift took place over three years, from 1981-84, and was punctuated by growing violence.

What, exactly, are Sikh separatists demanding from New Delhi?

First, it is important to understand that there is no point in using the present tense, because in ideological terms, the Sikh separatist movement collapsed in 1984-85. This implosion was due to two factors. First, in 1984, the Indian Army carried out a raid on the city of Amritsar (which lies practically on the border with Pakistan). The city was where the most vocal supporters of the separatist movement chose to base themselves. It is important to note, that during exploratory talks with the Indian government even these ‘ideologues’ of Sikh separatism never explicitly demanded an independent Sikh state. Rather, their willingness to kill off moderate Sikh politicians, as well as police officials trying to serve arrest warrants for past crimes, led the Indian government to send in the military. With this action, the leadership structure of the Sikh separatist movement disintegrated.

The following year, the Indian government concluded a political deal with Sikh leaders, which conceded all the major demands that had been put forward by the ultra-orthodox Sikh leaders prior to the military action in 1984. Over the next seven years, Sikh separatist violence took on an increasingly criminal nature, with extortion and kidnappings for ransom becoming the primary motive of violence. The annual number of criminal incidents peaked in 1991, when the Indian Army was once again sent into Punjab to restore order (it had been withdrawn from the province after 1984). Working alongside the civilian authorities, the Army reduced levels of violence within a matter of months. By mid-1993, the Sikh separatist movement had collapsed in operational terms as well, having lost its political hue many years previously.

Where does Sikh separatism fit in with India’s other separatist or revolutionary movements? Are there links, for example, with the Naxalite movement?

Interestingly, the Naxalites opposed the Sikh separatists, because their left-wing ideas clashed with the right-wing agenda of the latter. The Naxalites worked as police informers and also set up rural defense squads in order to ensure that separatists could not find refuge in the Punjab countryside. However, there was a concerted effort by the Pakistani ISI to establish fraternal linkages between Sikh and Kashmiri militants. This effort dated back to 1990-91, when the ISI drew up plans for large-scale urban paramilitary attacks on India, using deniable assets. The Sikhs and Kashmiris were supposed to cooperate in launching suicidal attacks on ‘soft’ targets in India’s financial capital, Mumbai. However, in July 1992, Indian counterintelligence busted a key node in the network that was responsible for enacting this plan.

Since then, the Sikh separatist movement has been limited to a handful of aging ideologues, enjoying Pakistani hospitality at ISI safe-houses in and around Lahore. Beyond issuing sporadic statements calling for the breakup of the Indian Republic, which nobody aside from Indian security officials even bother to read or listen to, these ideologues do little. That said, it also needs to be mentioned that concerns have been raised that the ISI is encouraging Sikh separatist ideologues living in Pakistan to endorse terrorist attacks against India, as a way of taking the heat off the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment for having been caught out in supporting the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai. The ISI reasons that if Sikhs were found to be involved in a major act of terrorism against India, it would somehow deflect international attention from the agency’s ties to jihadist terrorists that were so blatantly exposed at Mumbai.

And what about links with Pakistan or India’s other great rival, China?

China has had no role in supporting Sikh separatism. As I have already made clear, Pakistan has led the way in providing moral and material support to the separatists. To understand why, we need to look beyond the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Kashmir and consider the history of ISI operations in the Indian province of Punjab.

It was in 1987 that the ISI really upped the ante in Punjab, by supplying the Sikh separatists with large quantities of Kalashnikov assault rifles. Until that point in time, such firearms had only been handed out sparingly, to maintain plausible deniability and hedge against Indian accusations of cross-border interference. However, once Pakistan felt confident that its nuclear weapon program (which had secretly been underway for many years) had sufficiently developed as a deterrent to Indian conventional military reprisals it began escalating its support to Sikh separatists. Most of the people killed during the 13-year separatist conflict (whose violent phase stretched from 1980-1993) died after 1987 at the hands of Kalashnikov-wielding Sikh youths who were merely out to make a quick buck through violent crime.

Since the violence level came down substantially in 1993, the ISI has been actively seeking to resuscitate the separatist movement. With Indian police being highly vigilant against any cross-border movement, the ISI’s preference is, once again, to stir up emotions among members of the Sikh diaspora. However, so far these efforts have met with rather dismal results and the Pakistani agency is looking for a window of attack to appear in India.

How has India’s response to Sikh separatism evolved over the years? Has New Delhi preferred force over dialogue?

Successive Indian heads of government tried talking with separatists, only to realize that none of their interlocutors had any influence over the conflict dynamic in Punjab. The string-pullers were all in Pakistan. In fact, we now know that the ISI regarded its covert support of terrorism in Punjab as a rehearsal for the larger offensive it was planning in Kashmir, which actually did begin in 1988. So, despite repeated efforts at dialogue, the Indian government got nowhere.

Only once a whole-of-government consensus emerged that what India faced was not a popular political rebellion, but rather a cross-border covert operation driven by purely criminal motives at the local level, did India opt to use force against the armed groups in Punjab. By the time this realization had hit home (around 1991-92), international support had coalesced behind New Delhi because the American, British and Canadian governments (who took a keen interest in the conflict) had come to realize that separatism lacked a popular support base.

Another, less publicly known factor was that the intelligence services of all these countries provided varying degrees of information about ISI support for Sikh separatist terrorism. This international intelligence sharing was a crucial factor in ensuring that India’s counterterrorist operations in Punjab became quite sophisticated by the early 1990s, and in fact, they continue to be studied today by Western security communities.

Ultimately, what are the prospects for an independent Sikh state? What could this mean for the rest of India and, crucially, South Asia in general?

Sikh intellectuals have themselves noted that even the most optimistic of the separatist leaders should have known during the period 1980-1993 that there was no prospect for an independent Sikh state to exist. Even Pakistan’s support for the movement was entirely opportunistic – an exercise in bleeding India and satisfying the ISI’s sanguinary urge to see Indian civilians getting killed. As early as the 1980s, most Sikhs understood that, with the province of Punjab being small and surrounded on three sides by India, any independent Sikh state would not be economically viable or militarily defensible. It is important to note that the bulk of the counterterrorist effort in the province was led by the civilian police, many of whom hailed from the same communities as the Kalashnikov-wielding men who claimed to be fighting for separatism. So beyond the purely delusional, or the utterly cynical (among the ISI’s operations cells), nobody can have any notions about an independent Sikh state. Pakistan itself would not welcome such a hypothetical scenario, because an independent Sikh homeland would have large territorial claims on areas that are currently part of Pakistan, but which were once ruled by Sikh monarchs before British colonization.

So is it really a case of the Indian government having to deal with the occasional outbreaks of social unrest akin to recent events at Amritsar’s Golden Temple?

To a large extent. Even this unrest is not so much ‘social’. Rather, it is a manifestation of infighting that permeates Indian politics to varying degrees in different provincial contexts. Regarding prospects for trouble, I see two possibilities. First, the ISI is very keen on strategic destabilization through targeted assassination conducted by local proxies. This is a tactic that has worked in the past, and they would like to use it again, if provided an opportunity. So, there could be a sensational murder (or a series of murders) at some point, orchestrated by Pakistani handlers but carried out by hired guns to ensure deniability. Another scenario would be for major attacks on soft targets, similar in style to those carried out by the Pakistani jihadist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Mumbai. In both scenarios, the ISI would want international attention to focus heavily on Sikh separatism as a political movement or phenomenon, and thereby slowly erase from public memory the fact that Pakistani officials have been caught out supporting specific terrorist attacks. In this regard, it is especially important to watch for ‘false-flag’ operations, carried out by Pakistani citizens but claimed by spokesmen for some non-existent Sikh separatist group. The ISI had tried this method in Mumbai, by getting LeT terrorists to claim that they were from the ‘Deccan Mujahideen’ – a group that no-one had ever heard of before. So, I would not put it past the Pakistani agency to carry out another major act of international terrorism and then have this claimed by some fictitious Sikh separatist group.

Prem Mahadevan is a senior researcher with the Global Security Team at the Center for Security Studies (CSS). He specializes in the study of intelligence systems and sub-state conflict, and is responsible at the CSS for tracking geopolitical trends and jihadist terrorism in the Indo-Pacific region.

The post India’s Sikh Separatist ‘Problem’ – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

With North Korea unwilling to halt WMD proliferation yet in the middle of an opening up process, the EU’s policy has to carefully balance non-proliferation activities with economic engagement.

By Ramon Pacheco Pardo

There is no indication that North Korea is going to stop WMD proliferation any time soon, at least without substantial inducements. Meanwhile, the Kim Jong Un government has initiated a process of economic opening up and tentative diplomatic engagement. These two realities call for the EU to focus on two areas on which it has the potential to have considerable impact – WMD non-proliferation activities and economic reform support. The EU’s approach should include both carrots and sticks. Mixing proactive and punitive measures would not undermine Brussels’ normative agenda or support for peace and security in the Korean Peninsula. On the contrary, the EU could be perceived in East Asia as an independent and engaged actor with strong knowledge of regional dynamics and willing to engage when necessary.

Analysis

The EU is facing a conundrum. North Korea has shown scant willingness to halt its nuclear programme and cease proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), as demanded by the United Nations (UN) and many in the international community. The EU is among those implementing sanctions and other measures to force the Kim Jong Un government to stop both. On the other hand, Pyongyang has accelerated implementation of economic reforms over the past few years. Presumably, Brussels would like to be at the forefront of efforts to support these reforms through economic engagement.

This dilemma between pressure and support is difficult to solve. Failure to apply sufficient pressure while openly backing economic change would signal that Brussels is willing to sometimes look the other way when dealing with regimes defying the international community. Also, the US and other partners would probably be critical of this approach. Meanwhile, too much pressure with economic engagement absent would reduce any leverage the EU might have in its relations with North Korea. Furthermore, this approach would probably discourage those seeking reform within the North Korean government.

Brussels, therefore, needs to apply a two-pronged strategy to deal with Pyongyang. This strategy ought to marry sufficient pressure to show North Korea that the EU will not tolerate its defiance of the international community, together – and above all – with productive engagement to encourage an honest dialogue as well as further economic reform and opening up. Can the EU strike the right balance between pressure and engagement to help to halt North Korea’s nuclear and proliferation programmes while simultaneously encouraging economic change?

The EU’s North Korea policy

Brussels’ policy towards Pyongyang is based on four pillars: peace and security in the Korean Peninsula, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, human rights, and aid and cooperation. Nevertheless, the EU concedes that it mainly plays a supportive role with regards to the first pillar. Once the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) effectively became redundant in late 2002 and the Six-Party Talks were set up in 2003, Brussels lost relevance in shaping inter-Korean security. As a result, non-proliferation, human rights, and economic support are the main aspects of the EU’s North Korea policy today.

Far from lumping together these three issues, however, the EU has become savvier in its approach towards North Korea. In common with its policy towards other authoritarian countries in East Asia (for example, China, Myanmar and Vietnam), Brussels prioritizes those areas in which it has the potential to have a real impact and which respond to the realities of regional geopolitics. As a result, the EU is concentrating heavily on halting North Korea’s WMD proliferation as well as on the promotion of economic reform.

This is not to say that EU officials consider the human rights situation in North Korea to be secondary. Brussels still co-sponsors UN General Assembly resolutions condemning Pyongyang’s human rights record, and the European Parliament has adopted several resolutions in this respect. But the reality is that open criticism of human rights problems does not work well in East Asia. It can even be detrimental to the EU’s policy towards the region, as shown recently when Myanmar’s opening up resulted in a quick re-assessment of Brussels’ priorities in a bid to catch up with other countries looking at other ways to encourage reform – including the US.

Furthermore, economic engagement has the potential to improve the human rights of ordinary North Koreans in a way that condemnations and sanctions do not. As Professor Hafner-Burton has forcefully argued, there is solid evidence that trade is effective at improving human rights standards. In the case of China, for example, economic engagement has been very useful in this regard. Therefore, it is logical for the EU to try this route – while prioritizing halting proliferation of WMD, a real threat to Europe’s security.

Stopping bombs: still the number one priority

The Kim Jong Un regime continues developing its nuclear programme for providing the regime with the security it craves. As Muammar Gaddafi found out in 2011, signing an agreement with Western powers to exchange WMD for better relations does not guarantee that these same powers will not turn against you at some point. It is not an exaggeration to believe that North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) support for the Libyan opposition during the country’s civil war makes the Kim Jong Un regime wary of suffering a similar fate. Indeed, North Korea already became reluctant to give up its nuclear programme as soon as it conducted its first-ever nuclear test, in October 2006. This reluctance has only become more apparent following Gaddafi’s death.

In the meantime, there is ample evidence that Pyongyang has been engaging in proliferation of WMD and nuclear technology for at least two decades. Both the Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un governments probably consider this activity as a means to secure hard cash – something necessary for a country that attracts very little foreign investment. Proliferation has the added advantage of enhancing independence from China. Contrary to popular belief, Beijing is not an uncritical and entirely reliable supporter of its Eastern neighbour. Weaker Sino-North Korean links started in 1992, when China and South Korea normalised diplomatic relations. With a willing customer base in the Greater Middle East, Pyongyang is unlikely to stop selling its ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons know-how to those willing to pay for them any time soon.

Halting North Korea’s nuclear programme and proliferation activities still remains the EU’s number one priority. To begin with, proliferation is a potential threat to the EU. Not only is the Greater Middle East part of its near abroad, but several member states have a military presence in the region. There is also a risk of weapons falling in the hands of terrorist groups seeking to strike inside the EU.

In addition, many consider the EU to be a normative power. Therefore, proliferation of WMD and nuclear technology is a breach of international norms to which Brussels cannot be oblivious to. Thus, even leaving aside the security risks inherent to arms circulating very close to its borders, the EU has an incentive to fight against proliferation to project a normative power image. Doing so enhances its credibility as an actor willing to share its burden as a responsible member of the international community.

Considering the above, it is no surprise that the EU has been a keen supporter of multilateral sanctions on North Korea. EU member states – particularly the UK – have been among the driving forces behind United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions on Pyongyang following each of its nuclear tests. Brussels has even gone beyond implementation of these sanctions and adopted some of its own. For example, the Council announced stringent trade bans and financial restrictions following North Korea’s February 2013 nuclear test. Tellingly, these measures were announced less than a week after the test, suggesting that there is a consensus among EU member states that sanctions are key in deterring the Kim Jong Un government from strengthening its nuclear programme. In fact, High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Catherine Ashton, expressed South Korean Foreign Minister, Yun Byung-se, the EU’s willingness to impose more sanctions on North Korea, if necessary, as recently as May 5th.

Even more forcefully, EU member state military forces integrated in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) have participated in the interdiction of North Korean cargo ships transporting WMD and related materials. Launched by the George W. Bush administration in May 2003, the PSI has been successful in halting several North Korean shipments over the years – Pyongyang proliferation activities being one of the main targets of the initiative. All EU member states and the EU itself participate in the PSI. Despite the secrecy surrounding PSI-related activities it is known that the navies of France, Germany, Spain and the UK have been actively involved in interdiction efforts.

Nevertheless, Brussels’ nuclear programme development and WMD proliferation-related strategy are more comprehensive than sanctions and interdiction activities would suggest. The EU seeks to maintain an annual political dialogue with North Korea in which proliferation features prominently, as well as regular inter-parliamentary meetings covering a range of issues. Given the limited number of contacts between North Korean and Western officials, these and other forms of engagement provide rare opportunities to address nuclear and proliferation concerns to North Korean officials directly. Brussels also remains supportive of the Six-Party Talks, the only international forum which Pyongyang has at least taken seriously in the last decade. Interviews by the author with several American, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean participants in the Six-Party Talks process confirm that the Kim Jong Il government did engage in an honest dialogue, at least during the 2005-07 period, when three joint statements were released.

Evidently, actions taken hitherto by the EU and others did not prevent North Korea from developing its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, the record on halting proliferation is unclear, given the lack of public information. However, the July 2013 interdiction of a North Korean ship carrying suspected missile parts by Panama shows that proliferation has not ceased. Therefore, it would be necessary for the EU to rethink its approach to Pyongyang’s nuclear programme and proliferation activities.

Any rethink should start with the recognition that sanctions and the PSI have not worked. They should be used to complement dialogue rather than as the policy of choice. The PSI and sanctions have been in place since 2003 and 2006, respectively. Yet, they have failed to stop Pyongyang from becoming a nuclear power and from continuing with its proliferation activities. Even though these measures signal the EU’s displeasure with North Korea’s behaviour, their ineffectiveness hitherto make both of them costly and detrimental to improving relations with North Korea. Thus, pressure should not be the main policy for Brussels to try to halt Pyongyang’s programmes.

The EU should instead decidedly support a real and honest dialogue with North Korea in which each party is able to express its views freely. As numerous negotiators with the Asian country have reported over the years, building sufficient trust for North Korean delegations to move beyond official rhetoric and engage in a real dialogue with their counterparts takes time. The Six-Party Talks are an example of a dialogue that achieved this level of trust. There is no reason to think that Brussels and Pyongyang cannot hold more regular meetings, in which inbuilt familiarity with each other – as well as consideration of North Korea’s security concerns – would lead to an open discussion about nuclear and proliferation activities. As the multilateral talks with Iran or indeed the Six-Party Talks demonstrate, reaching this degree of familiarity requires time, patience and mutual understanding. But maintaining an open communication channel is necessary for real dialogue to take place. Such a dialogue would have the added advantage of enhancing the effectiveness of pressure, since North Korea could not argue that the EU is unwilling to engage.

Encouraging shops: the real path towards change

Supporting North Korea’s economic reforms should be the second vortex of the EU’s approach to relations with Pyongyang. There is a debate among North Korea watchers regarding the extent to which the country is willing to push for genuine economic reforms. Existing evidence, however, strongly suggests that the Kim Jong Un government wants to implement the necessary changes to boost trade, attract investment, and kick-start economic growth. Located in the middle of four of the fifteen largest economies in the world, North Korea is uniquely placed to benefit from its location in one of the most economically dynamic regions in the world.

In fact, domestic economic reforms are not new to North Korea. In July 2002, meaningful reforms were first introduced. The government modified official prices to bring them closer to black market levels, increased wages and implemented a merit-based wage system, adjusted the won’s exchange rate to real levels, and increased managerial freedom for production units. Many other reforms have followed over the years. These include the legalisation of rural and urban markets, the creation of special economic zones, the launch of government markets, a loosening of collectivised farming structures, the updating if foreign investment laws, and the issuance of government bonds, among others. Certainly, many more reforms are needed. However, those implemented so far indicate that North Korea has left behind the days when the government oversaw all economic activity.

The marketization of the North Korean economy seems to have accelerated since Kim Jong Un took power. Most tellingly, in 2013 his government announced the opening of 14 special economic zones in different parts of the country. In addition, reports indicate that there has been a reorganisation of farm production units reminiscent of those introduced by China and Vietnam in the past. Reforms have also been introduced in the industrial base and the education system to move the country into the knowledge-based economy. Foreign residents in the capital Pyongyang say that signs of affluence are becoming more apparent by the day – including shops selling a wider variety of goods. Meanwhile, North Korean refugees from the rest of the country note that for years markets rather than state-owned companies have been the main drivers of the country’s economy outside of the capital. Since the North Korean government is unable to provide for its own population and wants to reduce economic reliance on China, it is logical to continue to implement real reforms.

An opening up process supports domestic economic reform efforts. The Kim Jong Un government has been openly courting foreign investment. For example, in October 2013 Pyongyang opened an embassy in Madrid, in a move apparently intended not only to tap into the Spanish-speaking market but also to cooperate with the World Tourism Organisation, headquartered in the capital of Spain. Business delegations from countries such as Mongolia, Russia, Thailand and several EU member states – including France, Germany and Italy – have visited North Korea in recent years. Concurrently, North Korea has dispatched delegations to several countries in Asia and Europe. It seems that the Kim Jong Un government is seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese and South Korean investment. The former even accounted for up to 94 per cent of North Korea’s inward foreign direct investment as recently as 2008 (once South Korean investment is excluded). With regards to investment from its Southern neighbour, it is mostly channelled through the Kaesong Industrial Complex, where well over 100 South Korean companies have operations. The complex opened in 2002 and has only been closed twice since, in spite of recurring tensions between both Koreas that have affected all other types of bilateral cooperation. This shows the importance of the complex for the North Korean economy.

Ultimately, economic reform and opening up are the most promising avenues for real change and sustained growth. Reforms first introduced by China in the late 1970s and by Vietnam in the mid-1980s have been the main forces behind the significant improvement in the livelihoods of the Chinese and Vietnamese populations in the decades since. Both introduced reforms rather unexpectedly and have for the most part stuck to them. More recently, Myanmar has launched a process of economic reform that surprised most observers. Given that North Korea has already been implementing market-friendly measures for over ten years, there is no reason to think that the government is not willing to follow in the footsteps of other Asian countries.

The EU, to its credit, has been supportive of North Korea’s attempts at implementing long-lasting economic reforms. Aid is one of the pillars underpinning this support. Even though not directly related to the reforms themselves, aid provided by the European Commission and EU member states has served to improve the lives of ordinary North Korean citizens. This has allowed them to participate in market activities. The EU partakes in multilateral initiatives in areas such as medical, water and sanitation assistance, agricultural support, natural disaster resilience, and food security. All of these are essential in a country in which undernourishment and poor living conditions still affect hundreds of thousands of people, according to the World Food Programme and the Red Cross. Without aid from the EU and other countries – most notably China and South Korea – many North Korean regions would not have been able to move beyond being subsistence economies.

In addition and as stated above, there is solid evidence that economic engagement is beneficial for human rights – another essential component of the EU’s North Korea strategy. As an example, the EU and China maintain a human rights dialogue since 1995 which was only made possible after Brussels decided to mix carrots together with sticks in its relationship with Beijing. More recently, the EU and Myanmar held their first human rights dialogue in May of this year. Myanmar only agreed to this dialogue after the EU established a process of economic support to its reforms. It is very unlikely that North Korea will agree to discuss human rights with the EU unless sustained economic engagement takes place as well.

The second pillar of Brussels’ work to support economic change in North Korea is training and education. Dozens of North Korean economic officials have received economic policy-making and business training in countries such as France, the Netherlands or the UK. In addition, several Central and Eastern European countries – most interestingly, Poland – maintain good relations with North Korea dating back to the decades in which all of them were part of the Soviet bloc. Concurrently, institutions such as the British Council and the Goethe-Institut provide valuable language and cultural training to North Koreans from their Pyongyang offices.

Notwithstanding the above, the EU could more actively support the reform process in North Korea. In the area of training and education, the EU has two advantages that most countries cannot combine – Brussels is perceived as an honest broker and many of its member states have successfully transitioned from a command to a free market economy. In spite of these advantages, it is noticeable that the Pyongyang Business School is a Swiss initiative or that cooperation projects by European universities are led by groups of private citizens with little institutional support from Brussels. Truth to be told, North Korea is not the most reliable of partners. But it should not be forgotten that the then-European Economic Community (EEC) played a crucial role in training and educating Chinese officials following its reform process. More recently, the EU has been very quick in supporting Myanmar’s reform process. Given its economic strength and knowledge about supporting transition economies, the EU could implement North Korea-related programmes, fund regular exchanges, and support initiatives by European civil society organisations.

In addition, the EU could support European businesses willing to invest in North Korea. Direct economic support might be politically – and even legally – unfeasible. Nevertheless, initiatives such as executive training programmes in Japan and South Korea, the EU-China managers exchange and training programme, and trade capacity enhancing-related programmes with a range of East Asian countries are – or were, in the case of the EU-China programme – partly funded by the EU. The institutional structure and the funds for this type of initiatives already exist. Therefore, it should not be complicated to add North Korea to the group of countries covered by them. Given that its market economy is still in its infancy and the lack of support from relevant international institutions or other countries, North Korean officials and business people would arguably benefit more from these programmes than many of their East Asian peers.

Prospects for EU-North Korea relations

North Korea’s talks with the US will eventually resume, regardless of the format. In fact, relations have never completely broken down. Nonetheless, it is highly unlikely that Pyongyang will give up its nuclear programme any time soon. Thus, the EU has to be ready to more openly engage with a nuclear North Korea. Establishing a well-functioning and regular dialogue would allow Brussels to build trust with the Kim Jong Un government. This would help to underpin the EU’s concern about the human rights situation in North Korea as well, since engagement with other East Asian countries has proved to be useful in this respect. A dialogue would also serve the EU to have first-hand information on developments in North Korea, which has not always been the case in the past.

In the interim, Pyongyang will continue its reform and opening up process. This process has been ongoing for more than ten years, North Korea is seeking to diversify its investment sources, and a variety of actors are seeking to help the Asian country with its economic development. Brussels cannot afford to be the last one to arrive to the party, as seems to have been the case with Myanmar’s reform process. European companies would stand to benefit from a growing middle class in North Korea, as well as from the infrastructure development contracts that the government has already been adjudicating over the past few years. Almost all of these contracts have gone to Chinese and Russian companies. It is no secret that the Kim Jong UnIl government is trying to woo companies from other places as well – European countries included.

The EU’s North Korea policy is part of its broader Asia strategy. This is a continent to which both Brussels and individual member states have been paying more attention since the turn of the century. Engaging in a genuine dialogue about North Korea’s nuclear and proliferation activities while supporting its reform process would enhance the profile of the EU in Asia as an independent actor willing to take bold decisions. Furthermore, the EU would be projecting an image as a genuine global power rather than as an important economic partner only. Numerous studies show that Asian elites and general public have a positive view of the EU. However, these same studies indicate that Brussels is not perceived as a credible actor in the region. A clearer and less confrontational stance on North Korea could help to change that.

Is the EU ready to take such a stance? It is not easy, since a new approach would require dealing with North Korea as it is, not as Brussels – and many others – would like it to be. But the EU and its member states have in the past actively engaged with countries with which it would have seem impossible only a few years earlier. Equipped with a Common Foreign and Security Policy, a High Representative, a European External Action Service, and a growing interest in the Asian continent, it is certainly possible for the EU to marry limited pressure and greater engagement in a way that it serves North Korea’s and its own interests.

About the author:
Ramon Pacheco Pardo
Lecturer at the Department of European & International Studies, King’s College London

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute and may be accessed here.

The post The EU And North Korea: Stopping Bombs, Encouraging Shops – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Aru Pande

The United States says it is fully prepared to impose further sanctions should Russia fail to call on pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine to disarm.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry did not mince words Thursday after meeting with his French counterpart Laurent Fabius in Paris. With an eye to a cease-fire that expires on Friday, Kerry was clear that time is running out.

“It is critical for Russia to show in the next hours, literally, that they are moving to help disarm the separatists, to encourage them to disarm, to call on them to lay down their weapons and to begin to become part of a legitimate political process,” said Kerry.

The European Union is set to meet Friday in Belgium to discuss imposing further sanctions on Russia. And while American officials say it’s uncertain if the United States would decide before then, State Department spokesperson Marie Harf said the U.S. is ready.

“We have in place the infrastructure to do this very quickly if we want to. The secretary was not outlining specific times for this to happen but underscoring that this needs to happen quickly,” said Harf.

Harf said the additional sanctions could affect Russia’s financial services, energy, metals and mining, engineering and defense sectors. She emphasized that further measures are targeted at maximizing pressure on Russia while minimizing the impact on the U.S. economy.

The comments came after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers ran ads in major American newspapers saying a new round of sanctions on Russia could hurt American businesses and workers.

Spokesperson Harf said U.S. officials have had “robust discussions” with the business community on the issue and taken those “calculations” into account.

European leaders also have voiced concern that new sanctions could otherwise hurt Europe’s expanding economic ties with Moscow. Both the EU and the U.S. earlier imposed sanctions against specific Russian individuals and companies after Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in March.

In Paris, Secretary Kerry said his preference is not to be in a “sanctions mode” and that he hopes the United States, Europe, Russia and Ukraine can cooperate to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine.

On Friday the focus will shift to another hotspot – Iraq – with Secretary Kerry traveling to Saudi Arabia for talks with King Abdullah on the deteriorating security situation in that country.

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By Ömer Faruk Topal

Tribes have always occupied a very important role in Iraqi society and they enjoyed several privileges under Saddam Hussein’s regime. After the American invasion, with the rise of Shiite power in the political system and the Kurds’ rising autonomy and prosperity, Sunni tribes have lost their influence and power to the some extent.

In the post-2003 era, Sunnis realized that they could not regain their privilege and concentrated their attention on political representation through federalism. A strong government in Baghdad will obviously be under Shiite control because of the population gap between Sunni Arabs and Shiites. Therefore, Sunnis focused their efforts on the transformation of Iraq as a federal state whose provinces enjoy more powerful autonomy. They also figured that if they had a majority in critical state institutions, such as the military and intelligence, then they could balance the Shiite power and secure Sunni interests. However, they could not achieve these goals. Along with the Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s centrist and exclusionist policies, the struggle for power among tribes, sub-tribes and families has also prevented them from creating common and efficient policies.

Al-Anbar province, which constitutes the western part of Iraq along much of the Syrian border, is one of the places where tribal traditions have been quite strong. Fallujah, the biggest city of the province, has a tribal society with the tribe playing an important role in the decision-making process of the individuals and it works as a bloc vote. This sociological aspect of tribalism has played a crucial role in the balance of politics and security in the city. It enables the Maliki regime to forge political and security alliances with influential sections of the society in Fallujah, splitting them into pro and anti ISIS quarrelling factions. The Tribal Military Councils are a new set of actors who were created by Al-Anbar’s anti-Maliki tribes and are posed to shake the whole of Iraq.

Tribal Revolutionary Military Councils

The Tribal Revolutionary Military Councils were established in several Sunni provinces as a reaction to the Maliki government’s violent break up of the widespread demonstrations. Many members of these groups often blame Maliki’s suppression of these protests as a reason for their decision to go a more militant route. Their members are generally resistance groups of the American invasion, or ex-bureaucrats and military officers of the Baath era. One of the most active military councils was founded in Al-Anbar province during the unrest in the beginning of 2014 under the name of the Military Council of Anbar Tribal Revolutionaries (MCATR).

The MCATR demanded Iraqi Security Forces to withdraw from Al-Anbar and consign their weapons to tribal rebels. They threatened all pro-Maliki groups in the province and called for Sahwa forces to serve their tribes, not Maliki. They also requested politicians to withdraw from the political process, which they described as criminal and illegal.

One of the most influential and powerful organization of this type is the General Military Council for Iraqi Revolutionaries, whose stronghold is Mosul. The group is associated with the Muslim Scholars’ Association a group that consists of Sunni scholars and is led by Sheikh Harith Sulayman al-Dhari, a prominent Sunni scholar who is accused of terrorism by the Maliki government. He said to Al Jazeera that [1] “Iraq’s Sunnis feel marginalized because [of] policies in Iraq… He [Maliki] adopted a policy of marginalization and exclusion and used all forms of cruelty at his disposal against the Sunnis.” The Association rejects sectarianism and terrorism, has organized joint Sunni-Shiite prayers and was fiercely against the American invasion.

Several Sunni insurgent groups such as the Jihad and Reform Front, the Asaib Iraq al-Jihadiyya, the Mujahideen Army and the Army of Ahmad bin Hanbal declared Harith Sulayman al-Dhari as their official representative in the international arena and all other platforms. In the Mosul crisis, the Association played a critical role. On June 9, 2014, the Association released a statement [2] which claimed that “A new task will be added to this victory, is of another kind, must be assumed by revolutionaries, which is maintaining security and stability all over the province of Nineveh, and keeping the safety of the residents of all the ingredients and the spectra and hardwork to mitigate on the civilians and provide all the basic needs as they could, to the introduction of tranquility to hearts, also to protect the state institutions and public funds, and to maintain the logic of the amnesty rather than of revenge; for sake of the sanctity of innocent blood.”

After the assault in Mosul, several Shiite religious leaders, including Ali Sistani who is the most influential Shiite cleric in the country, issued fatwas to fight against ISIS and terrorists and to protect the country and holy places against the ISIS threat.

The Association of Muslim Scholars responded to these calls and demanded from Shia marjas in Iraq to reconsider the recent fatwa, claiming that the government and militias “are using this fatwa to commit the sectarian crimes against unarmed civilians” once they failed in the face of the revolutionaries. [3] They declared that they totally denounce ISIS’s threats to attack Najaf and Karbala. The Association accused the government of implementing an Iranian agenda and of provoking civil war in the country.

After the crisis, Sheikh Mohammed Bashar al-Faidhi, spokesman of the Association of Muslim Scholars, described the situation in Iraq as a “popular revolution against the policy of oppression, marginalization and exclusion pursued by successive governments under the brutal occupation, including the current Maliki government.” [4] He claimed that the Maliki government has pursued oppressive and corrupt policies for years and has marginalized and excluded Sunnis.

The role of military councils in Mosul

Although much of the attention is focused on ISIS, one of the main dynamics behind the Mosul attacks and the uprising against the Maliki government is the Tribal Revolutionary Military Councils. If the central government cannot take control of Mosul, it can be said that there would be a new war between ISIS and the Tribal Revolutionary Military Councils. Spokesman for the General Military Council of the Iraqi Revolutionaries Muzhir al Qaisi told BBC that Mosul was too big a city for ISIS to have taken alone and that his council is stronger than ISIS. He also differentiates his council from ISIS as follows: “we are organized, we fight with rules, with the Geneva Convention, those are barbarians.”[5] Tribal revolutionaries also believe that they have to root out ISIS, but their first priority is the Maliki government.

On another note, Mosul is different from Fallujah. Maliki made several alliances with local tribes in Fallujah such as the Albu Fahd and Albu Bali tribes. In Mosul by contrast, the societal environment is modern, civilized and urbanized. Different from Fallujah, here the Arabic tribal lineage is held in high regard but plays a very limited role in the individuals’ way of life, political choices or inclinations. Hence, forging alliances and waging proxy wars is not an easy task for either Maliki or ISIS. Mosul and Ninowa province have pluralistic societies which include Christians, Yazidis, Shabaks and Mandeans who have coexisted for centuries. Although it is a very conservative society, the Islamist schools of thought and ideological models are not its choice for a political formula. ISIS has been accommodated, as any other Islamic group would have been, in playing a role under the extremely exceptional circumstances seen in the current crisis. This role is probably a short lived one and after the usual attitude of the society takes over, the visitor will need to check out. Furthermore, Mosul society is rife with pan Arab political factions and senior ex-army officers who want their share in the running of their city. Their discourse is non-sectarian/pan-sectarian and they tried to portray themselves as the nationalist and technocratic group that many Arabs have longed to see.

ISIS is definitely one of the winners of the Mosul attacks. It is a huge morale boost which enables ISIS to recruit more people; it gives ISIS the opportunity to access more money and ammunition and to attract people’s attention worldwide. However, global terrorism trends from Mali to Iraq show that these groups have realized that they are more successful in the areas where there is an authority gap or power vacuum. This is because of the fact that they fought in the northeastern part of Syria, where Assad forces had already withdrawn, and not in Damascus or other Assad strongholds. If tribal councils can fill this gap, Mosul might not be a safe place for ISIS.

[1] Harith al-Dari: Sunnis feel marginalized, Al Jazeera, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/2014/04/harith-al-dari-sunnis-feel-marginalised-201441811234497763.html

[2]Statement no. (996) Regarding the revolutionaries victories in Mosul, The Association of Muslim Scholars http://www.heyetnet.org/en/index.php/aciklamalar/item/871-statement-no-996-regarding-the-revolutionaries-victories-in-mosul

[3] Iraq crisis: AMS calls on Shia marja to show more wisdom, The Association of Muslim Scholars http://www.heyetnet.org/en/index.php/heyetamsi/item/883-iraq-crisis-ams-calls-on-shia-marja-to-show-more-wisdom

[4] Iraq witnessing a popular revolution, al-Faidhi says, The Association of Muslim Scholars

http://www.heyetnet.org/en/index.php/heyetamsi/item/881-iraq-witnessing-a-popular-revolution-against-oppression-and-marginalization-policies-al-faidhi-says

[5] Iraq conflict: ‘We are stronger than ISIS’, BBC, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27853362

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