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NATO Reform Needed – OpEd

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It is time for the citizenry of NATO countries to demand that the principles contained in the original NATO treaty be honoured and that Article I be followed. Bellicose statements, sanctions and other warlike moves (however futile) are not helpful in reaching a peaceful solution to the Ukraine problem.

By James Bissett

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was meant to be a purely defensive organization. When the Brussels Treaty of 1948 established the European Defence Alliance of five European countries, it was Canada’s Minister of Foreign affairs, Louis St. Laurent, who proposed the alliance be expanded to include the United States and Canada. One year later, in April 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was born. The primary purpose of the new organization was to defend member states from any attack from the Soviet Union and to act in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

NATO was born in the aftermath of the Second World War. Its founders were painfully aware that having reached the mid-point of the 20th century there had already been two world wars and the dropping of the atom bomb on civilian cities. They were determined that war and violence should not become the norm in resolving disputes and it was in this spirit that Article I of the treaty was conceived.

Article I of the Treaty made this abundantly clear. It read:

The parties undertake, as set out forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved, by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered… and to refrain from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”

For fifty years NATO was successful in deterring aggression against the West. A combination of conventional forces and the nuclear bomb created a mutual understanding that armed conflict between the two opposing powers was not an option. Critically important, however, was Article I itself because it was a guarantee to the Soviet Union that it would never be attacked by NATO forces. Article I acted as a safety blanket for the Soviets.

Ironically, the fall of the Soviet empire did not foretell the beginning of a new age of peace and security in Europe. On the contrary, the empire’s demise caused a crisis in NATO. After the Warsaw Pact armies had returned home what was the justification of maintaining such an expensive and powerful military force in Europe. NATO’s response was – business as usual- a continuation of the Cold war. As the respected former United States Ambassador to Moscow, George F Kennan wrote in 1987…”Were the Soviet Union, to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military industrial complex would have to remain substantially unchanged until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy.” Until his death Kennan continued to deplore NATO’s hostile encirclement of Russia.

In fact, NATO didn’t have to find another adversary it just pretended nothing had changed and acted accordingly. NATO’s behaviour towards Russia speaks for itself; a record marked by duplicity, double standards and hypocrisy. One of its first acts was to convert the Alliance from a purely defensive organization to one that could intervene militarily to resolve international disputes by force. The opportunity for this transformation occurred with the 78 day bombing of Serbia in March 1999 carried out by NATO without authorization from the UN Security Council. Later, in violation of UN Resolution 1244 reaffirming Serbia’s sovereignty over Kosovo, NATO recognized the unilateral declaration of Kosovo independence – declared without any pretence of a referendum.

During the bombing on NATO’s 50th birthday, US President Bill Clinton announced a new role for NATO – from now he declared, in effect, that NATO could intervene wherever and  whenever it decided to do so. Article I of the treaty presumably had been nullified by Presidential decree. The NATO treaty had been turned upside down. In the same month NATO admitted Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic into NATO thus breaking the promise made to Russian president Mikhail Gorbachev that if Russia allowed a united Germany into NATO the organization would never expand eastward.

The current crisis in Ukraine threatens global security and at worst has the potential for nuclear catastrophe. At best it signals a continuation of the Cold War. Sadly, the crisis is completely unnecessary and the responsibility lies entirely in the hands of the United States – led NATO powers. The almost virulent propaganda onslaught blaming Russia for the instability and violence in Ukraine simply ignores reality and the facts.

NATO, spurred on by the United States, has been determined since the collapse of the Soviet Union to surround Russia with hostile NATO members. The first attempt to win Ukraine over to the West through the Orange Revolution in 2004 failed but NATO kept trying and now has “let slip the dogs of war” on that unfortunate country.

It was inevitable that NATO’s expansion eastward would at some point run into hostile Russian reaction. The attack on South Ossetia in 2008 by the US armed and trained Georgian military was the last straw and Russia finally showed its teeth and crushed the Georgian offensive in 48 hours. The Russians then added insult to injury by recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. President Putin had warned that the illegal recognition of Kosovo independence would set a dangerous precedent and endanger the international framework of peace and security. Obviously his warning was unheeded and now the Cold War has started again. This was not supposed to happen.

It is time for the citizenry of NATO countries to demand that the principles contained in the original NATO treaty be honoured and that Article I be followed. Bellicose statements, sanctions and other warlike moves (however futile) are not helpful in reaching a peaceful solution. NATO’s Secretary General should stop threatening Russia and instead reaffirm to the world that Article 1 of the treaty will be enforced.

James Bissett is a former Canadian Ambassador to Yugoslavia where he served from 1990 to 1992. He was also Ambassador to Bulgaria and Albania, and was an Assistant under Secretary for Social Affairs at  the Foreign Ministry in Ottawa.

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India Clears 3000 MW Dibang Project In East Himalayan Region – OpEd

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New Threat for a million people and rich biodiversity in riparian Assam

The largest dam in Indian history will be built on Dibang river, a tributary of the Brahmaputrariver in a remote and pristine part of the country’s northeast, and which ignores the potential damage to the area rich in ethnic cultures and biodiversity without public consultation or a study of downstream impacts

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given the green light to construction of the 3,000 megawatt Dibang hydropower project in the ecologically fragile region of Arunachal Pradesh, north-east India. It is to be noted , in the build up to this year’s elections, Narendra Modi held a rally in Pasighat in the East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh in February where he acknowledged peoples’ concerns about large dams and committed to developing small hydropower instead. “I know citizens of the region are against large power projects,” he said. “I respect your sentiment. But hydropower can also be harnessed using smaller projects, while protecting the environment.” The proposed dam on the Dibang river, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra close to the border with China, will be India’s largest and one of the world’s tallest dams.

The Forest Advisory Committee of India’s Ministry of Environment and Forests cleared the dam last week, subject to a reduction in the dam height by 20 metres from the originally envisaged 288 metres. The committee has refused environmental clearances for the project twice before on the grounds it would destroy forests and impact the Dibru-Saikhowa National Park downstream in Assam state. The National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) –the company behind the dam – submitted several revised proposals to the ministry, reducing the amount of forest cleared and the height of the dam structure. But on August 28 the Forest Advisory Committee rejected the latest proposal to submerge more than 45 square kilometres of forest land for the project.

The committee concluded the “ecological and social costs of destroying a vast tract of forest land which is a major source of livelihood for the state’s tribal population would far outweigh the benefit likely to accrue from the project.” However, days later the Prime Minister’s principal secretary sent a letter to the Environment Secretary on September 3 to “clear the project expeditiously” as per the decision of the Cabinet Committee on investment. At the end of June, 298 projects were awaiting environmental approval, a backlog that Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar said last month he had subsequently cleared following ‘Single Window Clearance’ in the name of development. Only a handful of those projects were rejected or deferred for further analysis.

Opening the floodgates

The central government has decided to build the project without any
public consultation or study of the potential impacts in downstream Assam state. Anti-dam activists are now concerned Modi’s government will now push ahead with a series of mega dams planned in the northeast region, ignoring all expert and advisory committees in an attempt to harness “green” hydropower. The Dibang is just one of 168 massive dams slated to produce 57,000 megawatts of hydropower in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh states.

This strategically important region, which borders Myanmar in the east, Bhutan in the west and China in the north, is described by politicians as India’s ‘future powerhouse’ and is a key focus point of the country’s dam building programme. China is involved in a major dam building programme on its side of the border, also using the waters of the Brahmaputra – which it calls the Yarlung Tsangpo. China’s plans to build a massive dam three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam on the Great Bend before the river swings round into India.

The Brahmaputra is one of the world’s major rivers, winding across the Tibetan Plateau through China, India and Bangladesh before joining with the Ganga and flowing out into the Bay of Bengal. The dam building programme in north-east India has been highly controversial.

Opponents say it not only ignores geological and ecological factors – it also fails to take into account the impact of climate change in the region. Experts also say no proper overall plan has been put in place: though India and China have signed a limited agreement to data on river flow, there is no specific deal on managing the Brahmaputra’s waters.

Protests about the dams have been growing, with work on the 2,000
megawatt Lower Subansiri dam on one of the Brahmaputra’s tributaries – repeatedly held up. Most of the power produced will be exported to help ease power shortages elsewhere in India, like objective of Suwansiri Project. Organisations spearheading the anti-dam movement in the region agitating against mega dams are also determining to protest against the 16,000 crores (US$2.6 million) Dibang project.

Hardly has the dust settled on the controversial lower Suwansiri Hydro-electric Project when the region have another mega dam all but approved by the Central Government in the geologically and ecologically sensitive Eastern himalayas in Arunachal Pradesh, The
Assam Tribune, a leading daily in northest Indian region said. The proposed dam is the biggest of its kind in the country and the wisdom of having such a massive intervention on a fragile location must be questioned.

Organisations spearheading the anti-dam movement in the region agitating against mega dams are also threatening to protest against the 16,000 crores (US$2.6 million) Dibang project. It is planned that most of the power produced will be exported to help ease power shortages elsewhere in India. Shoddy clearences in utter disregard to environmental and and downstream concerns have became the norm – something typical of New Delhi’s handling og complex issues
concerning the north-east region. People of the region have decried the governments plan to go ahead with as many as 168 large hydro-electric projects in the region on the ground that the basic concerns such as down stream impacts in the form of flood, siltation morain, errosion, loss of biodiversity, sismic vulnerability of the region etc. seems to corroborate the stance of the opponebnts of the big dams.

The way pristine wildlife habitats are disappearing across the planet, protection of biodiversity hotspot is a concern of not just the northeast Indian region but of the entire world. While the proponents of the hydro-power policy would argue that it is the best way to get the cheap, non-polluting power so critical for development, the question unanswered is that the collosal social and environmental costs of these mega dams could effectively negate the benefits.
Scientific study done by impartial agencies involving top environmental scientists must procede construction of any big hydro project in the region. And last but not the least, the logic of having so many dams in Arunachal Pradesh seems to preposterous proposition one in any count, the Assam Tribune said. Given the complexities involved in the exercise of extracting electricicity through large dams in the region, the situation definitely calls for a resentment of the Central government’s hydro-power policy for the north-east India region. A riparian state like Assam stands to be the worst-hit by the project, the state has already have been victims of dam-induced floods several times in the recent past. A new kind of desertification has spoiled agricultural land of Majuli, Lakhimpur
and Dhemaji districts. Making large-scale intervention on the Himalayan ecology could also lead to catastrophic and irreversible consequences for its biodiversity of global importance.

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Le Pen Blocks EU Trade Preferences For Ukraine

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European MPs led by the leader of the French National Front Marine Le Pen blocked the procedure of accelerated approval to extend the autonomous regime of preferences in trade between the EU and Ukraine.

Le Pen and three other members of the European Parliament Committee on Trade formed the blocking minority and voted against the accelerated legislative procedure.”

According to Belgian press, it was planned that the European Parliament would vote on the issue at the plenary session of October 20-23 in Strasbourg. Extending the term of the trade preferences allows the EU to unilaterally cut or abolish customs duties on Ukrainian goods. Under current arrangements, the EU provided autonomous trade preferences to Ukrainian goods from April 23 to November 1 of this year.

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Nigeria: Marching For Abducted Girls Six Months Later

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A march is underway in Abuja to denounce six months of “dashed hopes” and “lack of information” on the over 200 girls abducted on April 14 in Chibok by Boko Haram Islamists.

The march is led by members of the BringBackOurGirls (BBOG) and will culminate outside the presidential building in Abuja to demand action for the release of the girls.

The demonstrators, who include family members of the abducted girls, have asked to be received by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan.

“The last 180 days have been one of dashed hopes, intense pain, and confusion for the families due to the lack of accurate information from the government on the current status of the rescue operation”, denounce the organizers.

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South Africa, France Sign Nuclear Cooperation Agreement

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South Africa and France have signed an Inter-Governmental Framework Agreement on Nuclear Cooperation, the Energy Department announced on Tuesday.

“This agreement initiates the preparatory phase for the possible deployment of French nuclear technology in South Africa,” said the department.

The agreement builds on the more than 40 years of cooperation between South Africa and France, as symbolised by the Koeberg Nuclear Power Plant.

The agreement — which was signed by Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the French Republic, Laurent Fabius — covers areas including skills development, localisation of nuclear technology as well as research and development in South Africa.

Minister Joemat-Pettersson said that South Africa was pleased to continue its long-standing cooperation with France.

“…This paves the way for establishing a nuclear procurement process. To date, South Africa has concluded several Inter-Governmental Agreements and will proceed to sign similar agreements with the remaining nuclear vendor countries in preparation for the rollout of 9.6GW Nuclear New Build programme,” said the Minister.

In a statement last Friday, President Jacob Zuma announced that he had given authority to Minister Joemat-Pettersson to sign an agreement for the safe use of nuclear energy with France.

Last month, President Zuma granted permission to Minister Joemat-Pettersson to sign a nuclear agreement between South Africa and Russia.

The Presidency earlier this month said media reports that President Zuma has negotiated or will negotiate and conclude nuclear power agreements alone were incorrect.

In the State of the Nation Address in June, President Zuma announced that the country would prioritise energy security and would pursue an energy mix including coal, nuclear, shale gas and renewable energy.

At a media briefing earlier this month, the Energy Department said it was doing preparatory work towards the procurement process of nuclear power.

“… There will be a procurement process and the work that the department is doing is preparation towards that,” Deputy Director General (DDG) for Nuclear Energy at the Department of Energy, Zizamele Mbambo, said at the time.

In 2008, South Africa approved the nuclear energy policy with the long term vision to be self-sufficient in the peaceful use of nuclear technology.

In March 2011, Cabinet approved the Integrated Resource Plan 2010-2030 (IRP) that provides for the balanced energy mix that includes coal, renewable, gas and nuclear energy.

“The expansion of SA’s nuclear programme will yield tremendous benefit for the country ranging from mining, beneficiation, manufacturing, industrialisation, skills development and power generation without a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

“Significantly, this programme will create the much needed quality jobs and catapult South Africa into the knowledge economy to achieve energy security for the successful implementation of the country’s National Development Plan,” said Minister Joemat-Pettersson.

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The Ukraine, As We Know It, Is Gone Forever – Interview

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The Saker is an ex-military analyst who was born in Europe to a family of Russian refugees. He now lives in Florida where he writes the Vineyard of the Saker blog and is a regular contributor to Russia Insider. The international community of Saker Blogs includes, besides the original Saker blog, French, German, Russian, Oceania and Serbian members and will soon include a Latin American member. – Mike Whitney

Mike Whitney: Is the United States responsible for the troubles in Ukraine?

The SAKER: Yes, absolutely, there’s no doubt about it. While it’s true that the Ukrainian people were unhappy with the corrupt Yanukovich regime, the coup itself was definitely CIA orchestrated. The EU was also involved, especially Germany, but they didn’t play nearly as big a role as the U.S. The taped phone messages of (US Undersecretary of State) Victoria Nuland show who was really calling the shots behind the scenes.

Mike Whitney: What role did the Obama administration play in Kiev’s decision to launch a war on its own people in the east of Ukraine?

The Saker: A central role. You have to understand that there is no “Ukrainian” power in Kiev. Poroshenko is 100% US-run as are the people around him. The head of the notorious Ukrainian secret police (the SBU), Valentin Nalivaichenko, is a known CIA agent. It’s also true that the US refers to Poroshenko “our Ukraine insider”. All of his so called “decisions” are actually made by U.S. officials in Kiev. As for Poroshenko’s speech to Congress a few weeks ago, that was obviously written by an American.

Mike Whitney: The separatists in the East have been very successful in repelling the Ukrainian army and their Neo Nazi counterparts in the security services. What role has Russia played in assisting the Novorussia militias?

The Saker: Russia’s role was critical. While Russian troops were not deployed across the border, Moscow did allow volunteers and weapons to flow in. And while the assistance was not provided directly by the FSB (Russia’s Federal Security Service) or the military, it was provided by various private groups. Clearly, the Kremlin has the power to help-out when it choses to do so. In one instance, there appears to have been direct artillery support from across the Russian border (in the so-called “southern cauldron”), but most of the aid has been covert. Besides the covert assistance, Russia has also provided intelligence, logistical and political support for the Novorussians. Without Russia’s support, the Novorussians never would have been able to turn the tide in the war.

Mike Whitney: Did Putin send Russian troops to Crimea and illegally seize the area or is that a fiction that’s been propagated in the western media?

The Saker: It’s actually a technicality. Yes, Putin did send Russian troops to Crimea, but no, they never exceeded the limits allowed under current agreements between Russia and the Ukraine. Remember that the Black Sea Fleet was already headquartered in Sevastopol, so there were plenty of troops available locally. Also, there was a large group of local volunteers who perform essential operations. Some of these volunteers were so convincing that they were mistaken for Russian Special Forces. But, yes, at the critical moment, Putin did send additional special forces to Crimea.

Was the operation legal? Well, technically it didn’t violate treaty agreements in terms of numbers, but did it violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. The reason Moscow did this was because there was solid evidence that Kiev was planning to move against Crimea. (possibly involving Turkey and Crimean Tatars) If Putin had not taken the initiative, the bloodbath in Crimea could have been worse than it’s been in Novorussia. Also, by the time Putin made the decision to protect Crimea, the democratically-elected President (Yanukovich) had already been removed from office, which created a legal vacuum in Kiev. So the question is: Should Putin have abided by the laws of a country that had been taken over by a gang of armed thugs or should he have tried to keep the peace by doing what he did?

What Putin chose to do was allow the people of Crimea to decide their own future by voting freely in a referendum. Yes, the AngloZionist propaganda says that they were forced to “vote at the barrel of a gun”, but that’s nonsense. Nobody disputes the fact that an overwhelming majority of Crimeans (95%) wanted to leave Ukraine and join Russia. All the “polite armed men in green” did was make it possible for the people to exercise their right of self-determination, something that the junta in Kiev never would have permitted.

Mike Whitney: What influence does Obama have on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s decision-making? Is Washington actually running the show?

The Saker: Yes, totally. Obama gives the orders and Poroshenko obeys.

Just as they do everywhere, the US uses local oligarchs to colonize a country. Take for example Russia between 1991 and 1999. It was run by oligarchs behind a drunken figurehead. (Boris Yeltsin) Everyone knew that Russia had become a American colony and that the US could do whatever it wanted. It’s the same today.

Yanukovich was no more pro-Russian than any other Ukrainian President. He’s just an oligarch who’s been replaced by another oligarch, Poroshenko. The latter is a very intelligent man who knows that his survival depends on his complete obedience to Uncle Sam.

I wouldn’t put it past the US to dump Poroshenko and install someone else if it suits their purposes. (Especially if the Right Sector takes power in Kiev.) For now, Poroshenko is Washington’s man, but that could change in the blink of an eye.

Mike Whitney: How close is the Obama administration to achieving its goal of establishing NATO bases (and, perhaps, missile sites) in Ukraine? What danger does this pose for Moscow?

The Saker: The only place where NATO bases really make sense is in Crimea, and that option is no longer available. But there’s more to this issue than meets the eye, that is, if the US continues to pursue this provocative policy of establishing NATO bases on the Russian border, then Russia will withdraw from the INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty) and deploy advanced versions of the SS-20 (Soviet Nuclear Ballistic Missile) closer to Europe. The point is, US meddling could lead to a confrontation between nuclear-armed adversaries.

Mike Whitney: The European Commission has created a number of obstacles to prevent Russia from building the Southstream pipeline which will diversify export routes for natural gas from Russia to central and southern Europe. Critics have said that the Obama administration is behind the move, and that powerful US energy giants want to either block or control the flow of energy from Russia to Europe. Is this the broader context of the troubles in Ukraine, that is, are we really seeing an energy war unfold in real time?

The Saker: This is an important part of the equation, but not the central one. The central one is the mistaken belief (put forward by Zbigniew Brzezinski) that without the Ukraine Russia cannot be a superpower, and the equally mistaken belief (put forward by Hillary Clinton) that Putin wants to re-create the Soviet Union. For the AngloZionists, the Ukraine is a zero-sum game in which the US must either control the Ukraine or destroy it, but not allow Russia to have it. The problem with this theory is that Russia doesn’t really want or need the Ukraine. What Russia wants is a stable, dependable and neutral partner with which it can do business. Even now, while the Novorussians are demanding full independence, Russia has been pushing a different plan altogether. Moscow wants a unitary Ukraine in which each region would have de-facto autonomy but still be part of the same state.

Powerbrokers in the West are so maniacally obsessed with controlling the Ukraine, they can’t imagine that Russia doesn’t want the same thing. But Russia doesn’t want the Ukraine. It has no need for a broken, dysfunctional, failed state with massive social problems, that will require billions upon billions of dollars to rebuild.

Sure, there are cultural, historical, religious and even family ties between Russia and the Ukraine, but that does not mean they want to run the place. Russia already got what it wanted, Crimea. As for the rest, Moscow’s attitude is, “You broke it, you own it.”

Mike Whitney: What’s the endgame here? Will Poroshnko succeed in keeping Ukraine together and further isolate Russia from Europe or will Ukraine splinter along political lines? Or is there another scenario that you see as more likely?

The Saker: Crimea is gone forever. So is Novorussia. But in the case of the latter, there might be a transitional phase in which Kiev retains some degree of sovereignty over areas in the east.

In the near term, there could be more fighting, but eventually there will be a deal in which Novorussia will be given something close to independence. One thing is certain, that before reaching an agreement on final status, two issues will have to be settled:

1– There must be regime change in Kiev followed by de-Nazification.

Neither Russia nor Novorussia will ever be safe as long as the Nazis are in power in Kiev. That means that these russophobic, nationalist freaks will have to be removed before final status issues can be resolved. The Russians and the Novorussians are somewhat divided on this issue. While the Novorussians want their independence and say “To hell with the Nazis in Kiev”, the Kremlin wants regime change and sees it crucial for their national security. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out in the future.

2– There will have to be a conference of donors.

The Ukraine is basically dead, it’s been reduced to rubble. It will take years to rebuild, and immense sums of money. The US, EU and Russia will all have to contribute. If the AngloZionists persist in their maximalist position and continue to support the Nazi junta in Kiev, the Russians will not pay a single kopeck. Russian aid will go exclusively to Novorussia.

Sooner or later the US and EU will realize that they need Russia’s help. And when they finally figure that out, they’ll work together to reach a comprehensive political agreement. Right now, they’re more preoccupied with punishing Putin (through economic sanctions and political isolation) to prove that no one can defy the Empire. But that kind of bullying behavior won’t change the reality on the ground. The West needs Russia’s cooperation, but Russia isn’t going to cooperate without strings attached. The US will have to meet certain conditions before Moscow agrees to a deal.

UKRAINE: “Gone forever”

Though it’s too early to tell, I think the Ukraine as we know it, is gone forever. Crimea will remain part of Russia, while Novorussia will become independent and probably end up in some kind of association status with Russia. As for the rest of the Ukraine, there’s bound to be a confrontation between the various oligarchs and Nazis, after which the pragmatists will appear and lead the way to a settlement. Eventually, there will be some kind of accommodation and a new state will emerge, but I can’t imagine how long it will take for that to happen.

If you want a more systematic analysis of the points above, please see my analysis (here: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-russian-response-to-double.html)

 

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Reshaping The Middle East: UAE Leads The Counter-Revolution – Analysis

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War planes from oil-rich Gulf states play a supporting role in the US-led air campaign to counter the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Despite their massive weapons acquisitions in recent years the Gulf states’ participation may make little military difference in the war against the jihadists, but it serves everyone’s political purpose.

It shields the US against accusations that the West is waging war against Islam and the Gulf states and from claims that they are unwilling to play their part in confronting what constitutes first and foremost a threat to regional stability rather than to the homeland security of the United States or Europe. It further allows the Gulf states to project themselves as pro-Western beacons of modernity; the United Arab Emirates in particular milking its deploying of the first woman fighter pilot for all it is worth.

Filling the vacuum

Under the radar, Gulf participation has enabled Saudi Arabia and the UAE to step up their effort to thwart the Muslim Brotherhood, political Islam and its Qatari backers as well as squash hope for politic al change across the Middle East and North Africa. The Saudi-UAE effort went into high gear with support for last year’s ousting by the military of President Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brother and Egypt’s only democratically elected president, and the withdrawal of their ambassadors from Doha earlier this year. The effort reflects a new assertiveness of Gulf rulers to further goals that the US may not fully share.

Writing on the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya network, Saudi journalist Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi noted that the alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has raised the “real possibility that the current power vacuum could be filled… Saudi Arabia and the UAE have always shared similar views on how to tackle problems in the Arab world, including their approach on creating a future free from extremism and terrorism”.

The UAE, long distrustful of the Brotherhood and Qatar, has taken the lead in cementing the Brotherhood’s downfall and countering Qatari support for political change in the region as long as conservative Gulf monarchies remain ring-fenced. UAE warplanes operating from bases in Egypt are believed to have in recent months launched several a tt acks on Islamist forces associated with the Brotherhood in divided Libya. The attacks supported rogue Libyan general Khalifa Haftar who is known for his opposition to the Brotherhood.

According to Middle East Eye, the UAE supported efforts of ousted Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to use his erstwhile Houthi rebel opponents to derail political transition in Yemen as well as President Abd-Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s government in which the Brotherhood-aligned Islah Party is represented. Saleh is believed to have worked through his son, Ahmed Ali Saleh, a former commander of Yemen’s Republican Guard and the country’s ambassador to the UAE. Houthis, a Shiite Muslim sect, last month effectively took control of Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, and have since agreed to join the Hadi government as its dominant force.

Gulf differences

Ironically, Saudi Arabia, unlike the UAE an implacable ideological and political opponent of Shia Islam, has been caught in a Catch-22 situation. The Saudis suspect the Houthis of having ties to Iran. Yet, the Houthis oppose the Muslim Brotherhood that was influential in the Yemen i government until the Houthis invaded the capital Sana’a. If that were not complicated enough, Saudi Arabia would like to limit the degree of change in Yemen, a country on its border that is slated to join Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). GCC foreign ministers have warned that the Houthi advances threatened regional stability and demanded the restoration of government authority in Yemen.

The counter-revolutionary Gulf strategy has opened a window on potential differences not only between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand and Qatar on the other but also within the conservative counter-revolutionary camp itself. Beyond apparent tactical differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Bahrain, virtually a Saudi outpost, joined the Saudis and Emiratis earlier this year in withdrawing its ambassador from Doha but has refused to ban the Brotherhood or label it a terrorist organisation.

More fundamentally, the strategy faces potential pitfalls given the fact that the Brotherhood, with the backdrop of almost a century of repression, has proven to be a cat with nine lives and that Arab autocracy has helped produce ever more virulent forms of political Islam as evidenced initially by Al Qaeda and more recently by Islamic State.

Rising from the ashes

In a recent book, Answering the Call: Popular Islamic Activism in Sadat’s Egypt, historian Abdullah Al-Arian documented how the Brotherhood, after being crushed in the 1950s and 1960s by former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, rose from the ashes in the late 1970s propelled by a rebellious student movement.

“As we ponder the future of the Muslim Brotherhood—and popular activism in Egypt more generally—it may be instructive to consider the historical precedent for the resumption of activism following a period of severe repression… It is more instructive to examine these movements, not as an alien force committed to the widespread destruction of society, but rather as a natural product of the societies from which they emerge,” Al-Arian said in a recent interview with Jadaliyya. It is a lesson that appears to go unnoticed in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

This article was published at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) as Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

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Lundin Petroleum Finds Oil And Gas In Alta Well In Barents Sea

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Lundin Petroleum, through its wholly owned subsidiary Lundin Norway AS, announced Tuesday that drilling of exploration well 7220/11-1 on the Alta prospect in the Barents Sea has been successfully completed and has encountered both oil and gas. The well is located 20 km northeast of the Gohta discovery (well 7120/1-3) and some 160 km from the Norwegian coastline.

The main objective of well 7220/11-1 was to prove the presence of hydrocarbons in reservoir rocks of Permo-Carboniferous and Triassic age. The well encountered a gross hydrocarbon column of 57 metres consisting of 11 metres gas and 46 metres oil in carbonate rocks of good reservoir quality.

Extensive data acquisition and sampling was carried out in the reservoir, including conventional coring and fluid sampling. Two production tests (DSTs) were performed in the oil zone, producing at a maximum rate of 3,260 barrels of oil per day and 1.7 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMcfd) through a 36/64” choke constrained by rig facilities. The gas/oil ratio was 94 Sm3/Sm3.

Following the results of well 7220/11-1 the preliminary evaluation of the gross recoverable oil and gas resource range in the Alta accumulation is estimated at 125 to 400 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). The oil resource range is estimated at 85 to 310 million barrels of oil (MMbbls).

Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO, commented; “The Alta discovery is a significant predominantly oil discovery in the southern Barents Sea. Alta is close to the nearby Gohta discovery ‎made by Lundin Petroleum just over a year ago. This discovery is another positive step in relation to proving up sufficient resources in the Loppa High area of the Barents Sea to enable the development of oil production infrastructure. We are very excited about this discovery and the potential in the Loppa High area where we are likely to drill three or four appraisal/exploration wells in 2015. In licence PL609 we have identified several multi hundred million barrel prospects on trend with Alta and Gohta. Our drilling successes in the Barents Sea have been made possible by extensive preparatory work including comprehensive environmental assessments and the mapping of sea bottom conditions. The Loppa High area is impacted by the Gulf Stream and as such is ice free all year and far from the maximum southern edge of the ice edge.”

The exploration well 7220/11-1 is the first well drilled in production license PL609 after it was awarded in the 21st Concession Round in 2011. The well was drilled to a total depth of 2,221 metres below mean sea level in a water depth of 388 metres.

With the Alta discovery the remaining prospectivity on PL609 has been further de-risked. The Neiden and Børselv prospects further north in PL609 are drill-ready and both of these prospects have the potential to contain material prospective resources.

The well was drilled using the semi-submersible drilling rig Island Innovator. The drilling is being completed and the rig will move to drill exploration well 25/10-12S targeting the Kopervik prospect in production license PL625, in the Norwegian North Sea, where Lundin Norway is operator.

Lundin Norway holds 40 percent interest in PL609. Partners are RWE Dea Norge AS and Idemitsu Petroleum Norge AS with 30 percent each.

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What Are Mozambique’s Prospects For Peace? – Analysis

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By Aditi Lalbahadur

On 15 October 2014 Mozambicans go to the polls to vote in the fifth round of democratic elections to be held in the country since they first took place in 1994. Twenty years after this watershed event, concerns about the sustainability of peace are more urgent than ever.

In the past two years tensions between RENAMO and FRELIMO have periodically erupted into violent outbursts, catalysing concerns about the country’s potential for a relapse into civil war. However, to those who have been following the Mozambican story more closely, it is apparent that the root cause for concern is not to be found in the war-mongering rhetoric of politicians, but rather in the effective and optimal management of resources and much-needed political reform.

Ineffective government

Mozambique’s resource boom that was still nascent at the time of the previous elections in 2009 has since had a profound material impact on the country. The economy has been growing at a phenomenal pace of over 7% over the past decade, yet the government’s capacity to address the severe socio-economic challenges endemic to the country remains anaemic. In September 2010, the government’s inability to absorb the impact of food inflation on consumers resulted in violent protests in city centres across the country— acutely affecting the capital, Maputo.

Increasingly issues like the elite-capture of the state, graft as well as the government’s perceived ineffectiveness in addressing socio-economic conditions that keep ordinary Mozambicans in the bottom-most echelons of various global human development indices, have become prominent in the civic discourse.

Changes brought about by an influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the resource sector have also altered the country’s geo-political standing. This means that peace and stability in Mozambique is now much more important to other players in the world than ever before; and concomitantly, external players have a stronger vested interest in the country than ever before – all of whom seek to optimise their own dividends.

In addressing the issue of ‘sustainable peace’, it therefore becomes important for the government to consider how it will balance these competing interests. For example, one of the most persistent grievances emanating from the rural areas of Mozambique (particularly in resource-rich provinces like Tete) is that communities are forced to resettle to infertile tracts of land and sometimes to homes of substandard quality, to allow extraction activities by foreign multinationals. Communities living in these sub-optimal conditions have resorted to protests which have disrupted mining operations.

On the one hand, community-based grievances if left unaddressed have the potential to flourish thereby undermining government authority; but on the other hand, multinational corporations need secure access to resources, otherwise they have no reason to continue investing in the country. It is evident that unless the interests of communities and multinational corporations are managed properly, these tensions are likely to grow, further destabilising the country.

The government’s failure to adequately and comprehensively address the socio-economic challenges of its people has already led to significant political losses. The 2013 municipal elections saw significant gains by the other opposition party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (known by its Portuguese acronym, MDM).

The spectre of RENAMO

One of the pillars of Afonso Dlakhama’s threatened bush campaign against the FRELIMO government when he retired to his hideaway in Gorongosa in 2012, was that he would not back down unless the government addressed the misappropriation of state resources. Although the details of this statement have always remained opaque, one gets the distinct impression from his presidential election campaign over the past month that the former rebel leader intends to capitalise on the government’s inability to translate the economic gains of the country into socio-economic gains for the Mozambican people.

Dlakhama has used the fortuitous opportunity of the signing of the peace accord in August 2014 to illustrate to disgruntled Mozambicans that he stands on the side of democracy and justice. This is no doubt likely to win him some support, however, whether or not it will be enough to sway votes overwhelmingly in his favour is yet to be seen.

Possibly the most direct influence RENAMO will have in these elections is how its supporters might react to potential electoral defeat. Despite appearances of reinvigoured support for the party, even at the height of its popularity, RENAMO was never as strong as FRELIMO.

While Dlakhama and his supporters have the propensity to act out violently, they will in all likelihood do so with the censure of the region and the world at large. Unlike the Cold War period, RENAMO no longer has an external support base, in the form of Malawi, Rhodesia or Apartheid South Africa. Even if its hidden caches of arms are taken into account, it is still under-equipped and its combatants are old. As such, it is unlikely that an outbreak of violence would result in a swift and complete relapse into civil war. With the weight of the international community firmly vested in a peaceful, post-war Mozambique, any serious threats to the status quo would rally support for the government. This is not necessarily the best outcome. Rather, it is important for peace in Mozambique that the elections are conducted in a peaceful, fair and transparent manner resulting in a credible outcome that is accepted by all parties.

Mozambique’s real threats to peace

More importantly, as the world remains transfixed over the election results emanating from the 15 October polls and as analysts attempt to decipher how a perplexing character like Afonso Dlakhama might react to an electoral defeat, it is equally important to look beyond the constraints of immediacy that the occasion demands.

Instead of asking whether a leader like Dlakhama will catalyse a relapse into civil war if he loses, we should be asking what are the conditions on the ground that could lead to widespread support of a violent backlash?

In seeking to answer this question, it becomes evident that for a self-sustaining peace to truly take root in Mozambique, a shift in approach by all of the country’s leaders is required. If nothing else, these elections highlight a growing dissatisfaction with the country’s growth trajectory. Inclusive growth is now becoming a necessity and therefore any future government must move beyond the realm of rhetoric.

If real peace is to be guaranteed in Mozambique, a new government must also ensure that it works for all the people of the country. This necessitates a greater commitment to transparency, accountability and political representation. Apart from taking a firm and public stance on combatting corruption and nepotism a new government should also open up the long overdue constitutional and electoral reform debate in Mozambique.

Most importantly, for real peace to flourish in Mozambique, it requires a real and concerted effort to ensure that the lives of ordinary Mozambicans are transformed for the better.

This article was published by SAIIA, and may be found here.

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The Syrian Tunnel And The Spring – OpEd

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By Fadi Elhusseini

When the first spontaneous explosions of the Arab democratic revolutions erupted in Tunisia in December 2010, many were hoping that this revolt might usher in a new beginning for the whole region. When Egypt joined Tunisia a few weeks later, hopes mounted and everyone started to think that the long-awaited moment had finally arrived. This feeling further intensified with the Yemeni revolution and the early stages of the revolutions in Libya and Syria, and a new order was anticipated. Nevertheless, the trajectory of events took things in a completely different direction. Some opted to see the recent downward spiral as a conspiracy theory, while others saw in these events a natural outcome of an ignorance planted by corrupt rulers over decades.

In fact, every Arab, except those who were benefiting from toppled regimes, was happy and hopeful with the so-called Arab Spring, and Arab thinkers started to draw optimistic scenarios for their future. On the other hand, despite initial hesitation and falling into the trap of duality — i.e., interests versus morals — the West ostensibly began to cheer and support these revolts. Even the staunchest critics of the Arab world saw these revolts bringing the region into the democratic club.

Nonetheless, with the beginning of the armed conflict in Libya, the picture was distorted somehow. That is, people started to question how far violence can justify the fulfillment of democratic aspirations. Similarly, in Syria violence escalated to an unprecedented level as regional and international actors tried to use the Syrian scene either to counter others’ influence or to find a foothold in the region.

To that end, there were no objections whatsoever whose hands the money and weapons would fall into, as long as Bashar al-Assad’s regime was weakened and as long as they maintained some sort of leverage in the ongoing action in Syria. This fact refutes, without doubt, the allegations of some states that accused others of financing and funding the jihadists in Syria, because simply, everyone paid and funded everyone and anyone who fights against Assad.

The conflict in Syria revealed the divergence and the convergence in the policies of regional regimes concerning Arab revolts. While the Saudis were in favor of regional Status-Quo except for Syria and Libya (who did not have good relations with), the Iranians were in favor of a revolutionary change in the region, aiming to re-clone their experience, except for Syria- the ally. Turks, on the other hand, were in favor of a gradual transition in the region in order to maintain their economic interests, but again with the exception of Syria which they opt for a drastic change and toppling Assad.

With the emergence of al-Nusra followed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the whole Arab Spring was fully hijacked. In other words, with the number of atrocities committed by these two groups, not one single Arab is left with the luxury of thinking of democracy or fighting their dictatorships, lest they suffer from similar troubles.

Although there is a consensus on the grave threat ISIS-IS is posing, there has been no real agreement among regional and global powers on fighting or eliminating the group. Some powers see that weakening ISIS-IS would not only mean that Assad will remain, but would also give him the opportunity to retrieve lost territories in Syria. Other regional powers find in fighting and weakening ISIS-IS an empowered of other groups like Kurdish PKK and other Shiite guerrillas, while other super powers find that eliminating ISIS-IS would remove any reason for regional countries to seek support and assistance in fighting those radicals.

And again, as the notion of the US was what provoked many Arabs to revolt against their regimes, which were long accused of being American stooges, the moment the United States launched its air strikes against ISIL, the number of new recruits in ISIL increased dramatically — as it is claimed that more than 6,000 new recruits have joined the organization since the beginning of the US campaign.

With its quick rise and control of a large swath and chunk of Iraq and Syria, ISIL inspired many conspiracy theories to draw the certain and undoubted role of the US in these events. Although critics of this conclusion refute this, claiming that the US is currently leading a campaign against ISIL, I tend to see the latter argument as both erroneous and illogical.

Aside from the document revealed by former contractor at the US’s National Security Agency (NSA) Edward Snowden, which said British and American intelligence and Mossad worked together to create ISIL in order to attract all extremists of the world to one place, there are still other signs. First, all observers have concluded that these strikes are not really harming ISIL. US Senator John McCain told CNN on Oct. 7 that the ISIL advance shows the “ineffectiveness and fecklessness” of the air strikes. Second, the US’s tardy decision to launch air strikes took months during which ISIL was expanding and gaining power day by day and despite all the atrocities committed by the group. Third, attacking ISIL does not necessarily mean that the US has no role in the formation and the rise of the group. To illustrate, throughout history, many US administrations attacked former allies when their interests conflicted, e.g., Manuel Noriega of Panama.

However, one should concede that without the widespread ignorance among the Arab population — due to decades of malevolent policies by corrupt regimes that were allied with the US — such groups would not have found grounds to propagate an austere interpretation of Islam and such violent acts. This fact does not, however, rule out a foreign imprint in the ongoing chaos in the region, and several incidents do support this argument.

For instance, in a letter sent from Patriarch Gregorios of Greece to the czar of Russia at the end of the 18th century, he said that abolishing the Islamic Ottoman Empire militarily was impossible. He suggested weakening the empire from within, mainly through ending the discipline and morale and importing Western ideas (from the French Revolution) of liberation and freedom. Tracking the ensuing developments, not only during the demise of the Ottoman Empire but also in modern times, one can notice that this policy has been implemented perfectly and used non-Islamic culture as a cover, either by importing the values of liberation and equality from the French Revolution or the values of US globalization of human rights and democracy in order to penetrate Arab and Islamic societies. Confronting such foreign infiltration occurred through recalling historical exploits and sometimes adopting radical agendas.

Another example is a strategically important document: the 1907 Campbell-Bannerman Report. Although the report was suppressed and has not been officially released due to its gravity, several sources revealed a number of its conclusions, which included that the Arab countries and the Muslim-Arab people presented a very real threat, and it recommended promoting disintegration, division and separation in the region; establishing artificial political entities that would be under the authority of the imperialist countries; fighting any kind of unity, whether intellectual, religious or historical; and finally a “buffer state” to be established in Palestine, populated by a strong, foreign presence that would be hostile to its neighbors and friendly to European countries and their interests.

That said, Ismael Hossein-Zadeh in his article “Planned Chaos in the Middle East — and Beyond,” which appeared in Counter Punch on July 18-20, 2014, suggests that the “incoherent,” “illogical” or “contradictory” policies of the United States are in fact chaos that represents the success, not failure, of those policies — policies that are designed by the beneficiaries of war and military adventures in the region, and beyond. Quoting Hossein-Zadeh: “The seeds of the chaos were planted some 25 years ago, when the Berlin Wall collapsed. Since the rationale for the large and growing military apparatus during the Cold War years was the ‘threat of communism,’ US citizens celebrated the collapse of the Wall as the end of militarism and the dawn of ‘peace dividends’ — a reference to the benefits that, it was hoped, many would enjoy in the United States as a result of a reorientation of part of the Pentagon’s budget toward non-military social needs.”

Unfortunately, with the intercalation of new elements in the scene, i.e., the Kurdish and the ethnic factors, all regional players succumbed to a form of paralysis with few options at hand, and thus the whole region is susceptible to further schism and deeper ordeals until everyone realizes that no one will be immune from the ramifications of this scourge.

*Fadi Elhusseini is a Political and Media Counselor of Embassy of Palestine in Turkey. He is an associate research fellow (ESRC) at the Institute for Middle East Studies-Canada and a doctoral candidate at the University of Sunderland in Britain. His articles have appeared in scores of newspapers, magazines and websites, including the Washington Institute, Foreign Policy Association, Middle East Monitor, International Security Observer, Geopolitical Monitor and others. Elhusseini is Arabic native speaker and he is fluent in English, and proficient in French and Italian, with basic knowledge of Turkish. He can be reached at: Facebook & Twitter

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Iran, P5+1 To ‘Certainly’ Reach A Nuclear Deal – Rohani

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President Hassan Rohani says Tehran and the Sextet of world powers will “certainly” reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear power as the group has come to recognize the country’s nuclear rights.

“Anyway, we will find a solution to the nuclear subject and we believe that the two sides will certainly reach a win-win agreement,” Rohani noted.

Iran and the six powers are in talks to work out a final agreement aimed at ending the longstanding dispute over Tehran’s civilian nuclear energy program.

World countries have accepted that Iran should have access to nuclear technology and that this issue should be resolved through negotiations, the president said.

He voiced optimism about reaching a comprehensive agreement before the November 24th deadline, saying “good steps” had been taken to resolve the issue.

Elsewhere, the president made comments on Iran’s economy, saying the country had nearly $50 billion worth of non-oil exports and imports in the first six months of the Iranian calendar year (started on March 21).

The rate of increase in Iran’s inflation has dropped to about one percent a month, he stated, noting that the country’s inflation will fall below 20 percent up to the end of this year (March 20, 2015).

Rohani called the decline in the inflation and the country’s move out of the recession a great victory for the Iranian nation.

Iran and the six powers are in talks to work out a final agreement aimed at ending the longstanding dispute over Tehran’s civilian nuclear energy program.

World countries have accepted that Iran should have access to nuclear technology and that this issue should be resolved through negotiations, the president said.

He voiced optimism about reaching a comprehensive agreement before the November 24th deadline, saying “good steps” had been taken to resolve the issue.

Elsewhere, the president made comments on Iran’s economy, saying the country had nearly $50 billion worth of non-oil exports and imports in the first six months of the Iranian calendar year (started on March 21).

The rate of increase in Iran’s inflation has dropped to about one percent a month, he stated, noting that the country’s inflation will fall below 20 percent up to the end of this year (March 20, 2015).

Rohani called the decline in the inflation and the country’s move out of the recession a great victory for the Iranian nation.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also said the Islamic Republic will keep on exercising its nuclear enrichment right.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will continue its nuclear enrichment within the framework of international regulations,” the Iranian foreign minister said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is to hold trilateral talks with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and US Secretary of State John Kerry over Tehran’s nuclear energy program.

Zarif will meet with Ashton and Kerry in the Austrian capital, Vienna, on Wednesday, October 15, to discuss the progress of the ongoing nuclear negotiations between Tehran and the P5+1 group of world powers.

Zarif and Ashton are also slated to sit down for bilateral talks on Iran’s nuclear issue next Tuesday ahead of the trilateral meeting.

A senior Iranian diplomat also said the Islamic Republic is ready to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to resolve outstanding issues about its nuclear work.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to speed up resolution of issues through cooperation with the Agency, and is prepared to resolve all these issues with the Agency one after the other,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Seyyed Abbas Araqchi said.

He also praised the significant and prominent role played by the Russian and Chinese delegations in the nuclear talks.

Araqchi, who is also a top member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, also underscored the need for continued consultation among Tehran, Moscow and Beijing on the Islamic Republic’s atomic work.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs said that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, US Secretary of State John Kerry, and the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, will meet in the Austrian capital, Vienna, on October 14.

“There is a possibility that the nuclear talks would be extended,” said Araqchi.

He stated that the negotiations will focus on the removal of sanctions against Tehran and the continuation of uranium enrichment, also expressing hope that ground will be prepared for the settlement of outstanding issues between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries.

“The time is passing swiftly,” the Iranian diplomat said, adding that there is still hope that the talks will achieve the desired result by November 24.

Araqchi, however, pointed out that if desirable results were not achieved during the upcoming round of talks, then the negotiating sides would definitely fail to strike a final deal by the November deadline.

The Iranian deputy foreign minister underlined the determination of both sides to continue the negotiations and called on the West to seize the existing opportunity to find an appropriate solution.

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WHO: West African Ebola Rate Underreported

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A United Nations medical worker who contracted Ebola while working in Liberia has died at a German hospital, contributing to a death rate that a World Health Organization official said had risen to 70 percent.

The most deadly outbreak of the disease has claimed more than 4,000 victims, mostly in West Africa, with infections surfacing in one nurse in the United States and another in Spain.

WHO assistant director-general Dr. Bruce Aylward on Tuesday said the mortality rate previously had been estimated at 50 percent. He said the number of Ebola infections, now reported at 8,914, is likely to top 9,000 by later this week.

Liberia has the most suspected and confirmed cases of Ebola, with the total reaching at least 4,000. The virus has killed more than 2,300 people this year in the country, including 95 health workers.

Undercount likely

WHO also said the reported caseloads in the three most-affected countries inevitably underrepresent the actual number of infections. The organization grimly predicts the number of Ebola infections is likely to be 1.5 times higher than reported in Guinea, twice as high in Sierra Leone and 2.5 times higher in Liberia, Reuters reported.

In Germany, the 56-year-old Sudanese medical worker died overnight “despite intensive medical procedures,” a representative of Leipzig’s St. Georg hospital said on Tuesday.

The U.N. Mission in Liberia announced last week that its staff member had tested positive for Ebola on October 6. It said none of the 41 people who may have been in contact had shown any symptoms.

The medic was the second member of the U.N.’s mission, called UNMIL, to contract and die from Ebola, according to the Reuters news agency.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. state of Texas, the Dallas nurse who’d contracted Ebola while treating a Liberian man has received a transfusion from a recovered patient.

The plasma donation came from Dr. Kent Brantly, according to the Christian aid group Samaritan’s Purse. The physician was a volunteer for the organization in Liberia, where he was infected. He was treated in the United States. His blood, which contains antibodies, has been used on two other patients.

Sierra Leone soldiers infected

Also Tuesday, a battalion of 800 Sierra Leone soldiers awaiting deployment to Somalia for peacekeeping duties instead was placed in quarantine after one member tested positive for Ebola, Reuters reported, citing military officials. The soldiers will be isolated and monitored for 21 days.

Liberia’s Health Workers Association has demanded workers get extra hazard pay for potentially exposing themselves to Ebola. Despite calls for a strike, most health care workers reported to work on Monday.

WHO chief Margaret Chan said Monday that Ebola poses a threat to the governments and societies of West Africa.

In a statement at a health conference in the Philippines, Chan warned the number of cases is “rising exponentially” in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, and said the outbreak shows how the world is ill-prepared for a severe and sustained public health emergency.

Other U.N. officials, including U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon, have sounded similar warnings about the Ebola epidemic.

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Israel, Hamas To Discuss Prisoner Exchange

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A prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas is expected to take place soon, a Hamas official said, without providing further details.

Muhammad Attoun, originally from Jerusalem but currently banned from the city, told Ma’an that “we hereby confirm there will be good omens very soon and the occupation will yield, whether they like it or not, just as they did before.”

“I can confirm that there will be a deal soon to free our prisoners,” Attoun added, without providing specific details.

Prisoners freed in the Shalit deal who were rearrested must be released before any serious exchange discussions can take place, the Hamas official said.

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Serbia-Albania Football Match Abandoned Following Player Brawl

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(RFE/RL) — The Euro 2016 qualifier between Serbia and Albania in Belgrade was abandoned on October 14 following a brawl between players from both sides after a flag stunt.

The Group I game was interrupted when an Albanian flag was flown over the pitch by a remote-controlled mini drone near the end of the first half.

A Serbian player grabbed the flag, prompting a fight with Albanian players.

Riot police moved in when around a dozen fans invaded the pitch.

After a half-hour delay, English referee Martin Atkinson abandoned the game, which stood at 0-0.

Serbian state television (RTS) reported that Olsi Rama, the brother of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, was arrested in the VIP box for instigating the flag stunt. The news could not be independently confirmed.

Albanian fans had been banned from attending the match.

The rival Balkan nations have had turbulent relations, mainly over the former ethnic Albanian-dominated Serbian province of Kosovo that declared independence in 2008.

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Terrorism Ruled Out In Riyadh Shooting Of 2 US Citizens

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By MD Al-Sulami

Police and US officials ruled out terrorism in the shooting of two US citizens in Riyadh on Tuesday, saying the gunman, an American-Saudi, was a disgruntled former employee of defense contractor Vinnell Arabia.

US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said in a statement that both victims were working for Vinnell Arabia.

Police earlier said the gunman fired at the car of the two Americans near a gas station at King Fahd Stadium in an eastern district of Riyadh on Tuesday afternoon, killing one and injuring the other.

Responding police operatives cornered and arrested the suspect, said Riyadh police spokesman Col. Fawaz Al-Maiman.

“Initial investigations reveal that the shooting is not related to terrorism,” the officer told Arab News.

Psaki was quoted by Reuters as saying US Embassy officials in Riyadh were in close contact with Saudi officials.

The attack happened about half-a-mile from the company’s base in Riyadh, some 32 kilometers from the US Embassy.

“Local police responded and the suspect is currently in police custody,” Psaki said, adding, “we are in close contact with the Saudi government as we continue to gather details.”

“We are in the process of evaluating our security posture and will take appropriate steps to ensure the safety of all US mission personnel,” she added.

Tuesday’s shooting was the first deadly attack on Westerners in Saudi Arabia since several were killed in a wave of Al-Qaeda violence between 2003 and 2006.

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North Korea Says Kim Jong Un Has Made First Public Appearance Since Sept. 3

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Reclusive North Korea’s state media has reported that the country’s young leader Kim Jong Un has made his first public appearance in nearly six weeks following speculations that he was facing serious health or political problems.

The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a dispatch on Tuesday local time that Kim had visited a residential district and a science academy since last appearing in public at a Sept. 3 music concert with his wife in the capital Pyongyang.

The brief dispatch did not say when Kim made the “field guidance” tour or why he had been absent from the public eye.

According to Agence France-Presse, KCNA usually reports such events the day after.

The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, meanwhile, carried multiple photos of Kim standing with the apparent aid of a walking stick, following speculations he might be suffering from a broken ankle, gout, or diabetes.

Kim, believed to be 31 years old and a heavy smoker, was seen smiling and gesturing in the photos showing him with aides at a newly completed residential complex, wearing his signature dark buttoned suit and appearing to be supporting himself with a black walking stick, Reuters news agency reported.

The KCNA report said he “gave field guidance” to the new Wisong Scientists Residential District and visited the newly built Natural Energy Institute of the State Academy of Sciences.

Rumors

Rumors about Kim, who leads the world’s only communist dynasty, had intensified after he did not show up at a key political anniversary on Friday, at which other top leaders were present, as well as a recent session of the country’s parliament.

The KCNA report said Tuesday that Kim was accompanied on his visit to the complex by several top officials, including Hwang Pyong-So, the vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission who is widely seen as Kim’s number two.

Hwang sprang a surprise by leading a delegation to South Korea for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games in the city of Incheon more than a week ago.

He was the most senior official from Pyongyang to have ever gone to the South, raising questions of who was in control of the nuclear-armed North Korea with Kim out of the limelight.

Kim has put on much weight since coming to power in 2011 following his father Kim Jong Il’s death in a heart attack. He was seen walking with a limp in July-August.

A North Korean television report in September said he was suffering from “discomfort.”

‘Sciatica’ problem

Medical experts in North Korea believe Kim is suffering from a “sciatica” problem, referring to pain, weakness, numbness, or tingling in the legs, sources told RFA’s Korean Service.

A source in Yanggang province, along the northern border with China,said he had met a medical executive and cautiously asked him about Kim’s health condition and that he was told that “medical teams in North Korea believe he is suffering from sciatica.”

Sciatica is a set of symptoms of leg pain and possibly tingling, numbness or weakness that originates in the lower back and travels through the buttock and down the large sciatic nerve in the back of the leg, according to Spine-health.com.

Another North Korean source in North Hamgyong province said he had contacted “well-known doctors” and that “most of them said Kim Jong Un suffered from sciatica.”

“They think that Kim Jong Un’s health condition is not critical,” the source said.

He said that while North Korea was considered a closed society, “it has characteristics of information sharing among the same occupational group.”

“Thus, information about Kim Jong Un’s health has been shared among medical teams.”

Reported by Sung-hui Moon for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Hanna Lee. Written in English by Parameswaran Ponnudurai and Richard Finney.

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Social Trust Eroded In Chinese Product-Tampering Incident

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For about a decade, Chinese consumers weren’t getting what they paid for when they purchased Wuchang, a special brand of gourmet rice that has a peculiar scent. The quality was being diluted when less expensive rice was aromatized, added to the packages of the high-quality rice, and sold at the premium price. Researchers at the University of Illinois studied how the tampering scandal affected the public’s perception of risk and their subsequent behavior.

Because public anxiety over the fake rice issue was more pronounced in urban districts, the researchers focused on residents of Xi’an, ultimately analyzing interviews and survey responses of 225 people.

“Over half of the people we interviewed were aware of the product tampering, but only very vaguely,” said U of I agricultural communications professor Lulu Rodriguez. “They rely much more on interpersonal communication with friends and family members for information.”

The study also showed that although people didn’t understand the details or potential health risks that the tainted rice may cause, the public’s perception of risk was considered to be high.

“In this case, their trust of society, such as the government, food-safety regulations, and the mass media was eroded,” Rodriguez said. “This incident came in the wake of other food-safety scandals in China. We hear people say in the interviews, ‘we are left to fend for ourselves.’ They seemed to feel like they need to make use of whatever information sources they have and make do because the government cannot be trusted. And the government tried to place the blame on local agencies.”

Rodriguez explained that rice retailers knew the product tampering was taking place. “Production was not jiving with what was being sold,” she said. About 800,000 tons of Wuchang rice were produced but up to 10 million tons were being sold. Adding 1 pound of fragrance to ten tons of rice allowed the lower-quality rice to pass as the more expensive Wuchang brand rice. The Chinese Central TV finally broke the story, saying that the government was doing its best to punish the culprits and that they would be dealt with accordingly, but that wasn’t good enough to calm the public’s anxiety.

“Fortunately, there wasn’t any real health risk, but that didn’t stop people from thinking about health-related concerns,” Rodriquez said. “It is food, after all, and the public didn’t know exactly what was being added to the rice. It shows that if you have the public perception as a communicator, you have a problem even if the accusations are not correct.”

Although their knowledge level was low, the uncertainty of what was perceived of as involuntary risk was high—high enough that their behavior shifted to not buying the rice.

“More openness is needed,” Rodriguez said. “This incident reminded me of the horrible way that the SARS epidemic was handled, in which the Chinese government delayed notifying the World Health Organization of the outbreak for three months. Keeping quiet just makes people more nervous.”

Rodriguez said that the problem was compounded because no one took ownership of the scandal. “They seemed to think that all they had to do was to assure the public that they were doing their best. But what exactly were they doing? It created high anxiety, particularly in urban districts where rice outlets are concentrated,” she said. “We also noted that although people seemed to know about the incident, they were very reluctant to speak out about it, fearing possible repercussions.”

As an agricultural communications educator, Rodriguez views this incident as a teachable moment.

“There is a window of opportunity for us,” she said. “There are Chinese students who come to the University of Illinois for undergraduate and graduate studies. These younger communicators will have a broader perspective to report on incidents like this. We hope that there can be mechanisms developed that can reestablish trust. Trust is very difficult to build and very easy to destroy.”

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The Costco Effect: Do Consumers Buy Less Variety At Bigger Stores?

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Do consumers make the same choices when products such as beer, soft drinks, or candy bars are sold individually or in bundles? According to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research, consumers purchase a greater variety of products when they are packaged individually rather than bundled together.

“When consumers choose multiple products, they are influenced by the mere mechanics of choosing, regardless of their product preference. Consumers are more likely to seek variety when choosing from single rather than bundled products,” write authors Mauricio Mittelman (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella), Eduardo B. Andrade (Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration, Fundação Getúlio Vargas), Amitava Chattopadhyay (INSEAD, Singapore), and C. Miguel Brendl (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University).

In their experiments, the authors asked consumers to choose multiple items, either individually or from pre-arranged bundles. In one study, consumers selected two soft drinks (either Coke or Sprite). One group made two separate selections (first choosing one can and then the other) while another group chose from four bundled packages (Coke/Sprite, Sprite/Coke, Coke/Coke, Sprite/Sprite), making only one choice.

Results revealed that consumers seek variety more often when choosing items individually rather than from bundles. In the soft drink experiment, consumers who selected one can of soda followed by another were twice as likely to seek variety as those who simply chose from a bundled selection. Additionally, the authors found that these participants sought variety even when they admitted preferring one brand of soda more than the other brand.

These findings offer insight for large retailers such as Costco and Sam’s Club as well as smaller companies trying to sell new products in smaller retail outlets. “By reducing variety, bundling can increase sales regardless of pricing since it induces consumers to buy larger quantities of the same item. Meanwhile, new competitors should find it easier to gain a foothold in smaller retail outlets. Consumers who shop at smaller stores are more likely to buy different products than consumers shopping in larger stores with bundled product offerings,” the authors conclude.

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Synod Interim Report Stirs Controversy – OpEd

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The Synod of Bishops has released an interim report, and even when it is completed next week, it will not be definitive. That will not happen until next year when the synod meets. Still, this report has elicited much controversy, with more to come.

The midterm report tries to walk a delicate line between embracing the Church’s traditional teachings on marriage while at the same time extending a welcoming hand to those in irregular relationships.

For example, it speaks of “the value and consistency of natural marriage,” maintaining that “unions between people of the same sex cannot be considered on the same footing as matrimony between man and woman.” This affirms the traditional understanding of marriage and leaves no wiggle room for change.

On other hand, it says “Homosexuals have gifts and qualities to offer to the Christian community,” and that the Church needs to recognize “the positive reality of civil weddings and…cohabitation.” It is not clear what “gifts” homosexuals, or heterosexuals for that matter, bring, and to whom. The data on civil unions are scarce, but not so for cohabitation: in most instances, the data show that couples that cohabit before marriage have a higher divorce rate than those who do not. So we need to know why “shacking up” may be a plus.

The vector of change indicates a more pastoral stance toward those involved in non-traditional partnerships without substantively changing the Church’s commitment to marriage as the union between a man and a woman. How this will play out is uncertain. What is lacking in the interim report is clarity; this is the key source of the controversy.

It should be noted that the Catholic League exists to defend the right of the Church’s voice to be heard. Whatever the teaching body of the Church decides, the Magisterium (the pope in communion with the bishops), is what we defend.

The post Synod Interim Report Stirs Controversy – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Obama: Fight Against ISIL ‘Long-Term Campaign’

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By Lisa Ferdinando

The fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists will be a “long-term campaign,” President Barack Obama said today.

Obama spoke at a meeting hosted by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey that featured participation by 21 foreign chiefs of defense. The purpose of the meeting was to coordinate strategies in the efforts against ISIL.

There are no “quick fixes” in the battle against ISIL, Obama said. But with some 60 nations contributing to the coalition, he added, the world is united against the terrorist group.

United ‘to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL’

“We are united in our goal to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL so that it’s no longer a threat to Iraq, to the region, or the international community,” the president said.

The foreign nations represented at the meeting included Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.

There have been “important successes” in the coalition’s efforts, Obama said, such as stopping ISIL’s advance on Irbil, saving civilians from massacres on Mount Sinjar, retaking the Mosul Dam, and destroying ISIL targets and fighters across Iraq and Syria.

“We’re also focused on the fighting that is taking place in Iraq’s Anbar Province, and we’re deeply concerned about the situation in and around the Syrian town of Kobani, which underscores the threat that ISIL poses in both Iraq and Syria,” the president said.

Coalition airstrikes will continue in both these areas, he said.

“As with any military effort, there will be days of progress and there are going to be periods of setback, but our coalition is united behind this long-term effort,” Obama said.

The situation is not a “classic” conflict in which the enemy is defeated in the battlefield and surrenders, he said.

Coalition battling ‘an ideological strain of extremism’

“What we’re also fighting is an ideological strain of extremism that has taken root in too many parts of the region,” Obama said.

Other U.S. defense participants included Army Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, commander of U.S. Central Command; Army Gen. Joseph L. Votel III, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command and Navy Vice Adm. Frank C. Pandolfe, the director for the Joint Staff’s Strategic Plans and Policy directorate at the, Pentagon.

“One of the interesting things to hear from our military leadership is the recognition that this cannot simply be a military campaign,” said Obama, noting the effort must include all the “dimensions of our power” that bolster economic and political stability in the region.

ISIL poses a “significant threat” to the people of Iraq and Syria and to the surrounding countries and beyond, including the United States and Europe, Obama said. Australia, he said, has already seen terrorist networks trying to “infiltrate and impact population centers.”

An important aspect in the campaign against ISIL is continuing humanitarian aid to all populations that have been impacted, Obama said. He pointed out that Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey have been bearing an “extraordinary burden” due to the situation with displaced persons that began with the civil war in Syria.

While some of the countries represented in the room are “really stepping up” and doing what is necessary to contain the Ebola epidemic, the “world as a whole is not doing enough,” Obama said.

Nations will have to do more, he said, because unless the disease is contained at the source, it will continue to threaten “hundreds of thousands of lives,” and could lead to economic and political destabilization down the road.

U.S. military assists Ebola fight in West Africa

He pledged that the United States will continue its efforts to fight Ebola. He said “enormous strides” have been made in standing up a U.S. military operation in Western Africa to build supply lines and bring supplies, equipment and workers into Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In the United States, the administration is “surging” resources into Dallas, he said, after a nurse contracted the disease after treating a man who had the disease and has since died.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with her and all the courageous health care workers around the country who put themselves in challenging situations in treating this disease,” Obama said.

The lessons learned in Dallas will be applied to hospitals and health care centers throughout the country, he said. He noted, however, that an outbreak in the United States is unlikely because of the nation’s strong health care infrastructure.

The post Obama: Fight Against ISIL ‘Long-Term Campaign’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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