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Jakarta Terrorist Attacks: The Threat From The Islamic State – Analysis

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The Jakarta terrorist attacks signal the extension of Islamic State operations to Southeast Asia. The threat of an IS province in the region is likely to continue for over a decade.

By Barry Desker*

Jakarta was rocked by two bomb explosions in Jakarta’s business and shopping district on Thursday 14 January, accompanied by an attack on a police post and a Starbucks outlet using improvised grenades and home-made handguns. Four attackers were killed as well as four civilians and more than 20 persons were injured. The Indonesian police as well as the propaganda machinery of the Islamic State (IS) have claimed that followers of IS were responsible. Although the intention was to cause mass casualties like the Paris attacks in November 2015, the lack of training and inadequate weapons resulted in minimal damage.

One significant lesson which could be drawn is the importance of developing societal resilience. Ordinary people as well as celebrities and politicians in Jakarta sharply criticized the attacks. Unlike previous attacks from 2002 to 2009, they broadcast messages on social media condemning the attacks, drawing attention to the incompetence of the perpetrators, and stressing their solidarity with the victims. If the intention was to cause ordinary people to cower in fear, the attackers failed.

Islamic State responsibility

The Islamic State (also known as ISIS or the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) claimed responsibility for the attacks. The Indonesian police chief said that the attacks were planned by the Islamic State in Syria through Bahrun Naim, an Indonesian national. Bahrun is now in Syria but spent a year in an Indonesian jail in 2011 for illegal possession of weapons. In follow-up raids, 12 people were detained in West Java, East Java and East Kalimantan. Weapons and ammunition were seized. For Southeast Asians, the IS claims of responsibility are significant.

A recent RSIS study discussed the establishment of Khatibah Nusantara, a dedicated Southeast Asia military unit within IS which used Malay/Indonesian for communications and formed a separate fighting unit in Syria. Khatibah Nusantara captured five Kurd-held territories in April 2015. Led by an Amir, identified as Abu Ibrahim al-Indunisiy, the unit appears to be led mainly by Indonesians but Malaysians are active within the group. This development highlights IS’ intention of building a regional network intended to support the establishment of a province (wilayah) of IS in Southeast Asia. The emergence of IS and its claims to have established a caliphate have therefore had an impact on Southeast Asia. The threat will continue over the next decade. Hence, it is important to understand how IS rose to prominence.

How IS rose to prominence

The American anti-Baathist policy following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 resulted in the removal of civil servants who had served Saddam’s administration as well as the exclusion of military and intelligence officers from the new administration set up in Iraq. This decision is critical in understanding the effectiveness of IS in Iraq. Today, former military officers and bureaucrats from Saddam’s Iraq are the core of IS in Iraq, which controls vast swathes of territory in northern and western Iraq.

In Syria, Bashir al-Assad financed, armed and trained al-Qaeda activists who crossed the border to attack the Americans from 2005 until the American withdrawal from Iraq. Growing numbers of al-Qaeda supporters pledged allegiance to IS following the proclamation of a caliphate by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the establishment of the Islamic State on 1 Ramadan (29 June 2014). IS now controls significant territory in eastern Syria. American officials claim that Bashir’s forces attack moderate Muslim oppositionist forces and avoid confronting IS. The reality is that IS represents the alternative to Bashir’s cruel regime but Bashir’s forces concentrate on the weaker of the forces opposing his regime. An escalating Sunni/Shia civil war is taking place and no easy options exist.

Even if concerted action by Western powers and their allies results in the re-taking of IS-held territories in Iraq and Syria, the idea of the Islamic State has captured the imaginations of sympathisers seeking a return to an imagined pristine way of life in the seventh century. Libya, which has emerged an arms supermarket for North and West Africa, could easily morph into the new centre for the caliphate.

Impact on Southeast Asia

Three conclusions may be drawn regarding the impact of these developments on Southeast Asia. First, trends in the Middle East have exerted a growing influence in recent years. Competition between an al-Qaeda offshoot, the al-Nusra Front and IS, has been replicated in the region. Singaporeans have joined the growing numbers of Southeast Asians who have journeyed to Syria and Iraq to participate in the conflict.

The claim of the IS-proclaimed caliphate to have oversight over Muslims around the world has strong emotional appeal and resonates with many Muslims, even in Southeast Asia. While the number of such adherents is small, the willingness to engage in armed attacks and cause mayhem on the streets results in regional governments paying close attention to those influenced by the effective propaganda of IS spread on social media.

While Muslims are a minority in Singapore, for IS, Singapore is seen as the heart of the archipelago. When the al-Qaeda affiliated Jemaah Islamiyah earlier developed a network to establish an Islamic state (Daulah Islamiyah Nusantara) linking Malaysia, Indonesia, southern Philippines and southern Thailand, it included Singapore. With the rise of the Islamic State, a more potent threat will exist in the decade ahead.

Secondly, the challenge to Muslim religious leaders in the region arising from more radical versions of Islam emerging in response to conditions in the Middle East has been a recurrent theme in Southeast Asian history. In 1803, Wahhabi-inspired returned Minangkabau pilgrims from West Sumatra launched the padri revolts against the traditional elite (uleebalang) and Sufi-inspired leaders in the matriarchal society of West Sumatra. Questioning the more traditional Sufi practices in the region scholars and religious teachers returning from Arabia sought a return to the practices of Islam in the seventh century.

Thirdly, acts of terrorism and political violence in the region will occur. Governments are now more alert but it will be difficult to eliminate all threats by IS followers in the region operating in clandestine cells. Attacks in the region have been by organised groups so far. If regular attacks occur, there will be a sense of insecurity and a threat to public order. Members of the public will have to get used to a larger police presence, precautionary measures such as baggage checks and searches of vehicles and the closer monitoring of contacts with religious militants. However, such movements will not overthrow governments. The risk is that governments in Muslim majority states may adopt policies intended to win over those who view the religious agenda of IS positively, even if they disagree with its methods, resulting in increasing religious intolerance in the region.

*Barry Desker is Distinguished Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. He was Singapore’s Ambassador to Indonesia from 1986 to 1993. An earlier version appeared in The Straits Times.


Is Sanders A Political Rebel? – OpEd

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I admit I’ve been slow to warm up to the idea of supporting Bernie Sanders. Maybe it’s because I publicly backed Barack Obama in 2008 and quickly came to rue that decision after he took office.

But I have decided Bernie Sanders is different.

It’s too facile to simply label him another “hope-and-change” Obama, or just another Bill Clinton liberal poseur, put in the Democratic race to lure left-leaning voters. When I wrote that I backed Obama, back in ’08, I said that it would be important for people on the left to stay organized and to press Obama, after election, to live up to his promises on health care reform, labor law reform and other issues. There will be no need to push Sanders on his issues if he wins. Unlike Obama, who after all was pretty much selected and groomed by elements of the Democratic Party leadership and the Wall Street crowd to run for them and their agenda, in the outsider Sanders’ case these issues have been the driving force of his political life since he was in college or maybe earlier. The party establishment is terrified that he might win.

As Sanders demonstrated in Sunday’s debate, and as he has been demonstrating on the campaign trail with his full-throated call for a single-payer national health care program and a trust-busting break-up of the giant banks which control a staggering and totally unconscionable 60% of the nation’s economy, and particularly as he has demonstrated by resolutely refusing to take corporate money to fund his campaign, while denouncing the buying of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, by the financial and the pharmaceutical industries, Sanders is out to make change, not promise to make it.

Let’s start there. Sanders is not your ordinary, run-of-the-mill left liberal political candidate. When is the last time that you’ve heard a candidate for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination jump into a question posed on national television by the high-priced corporate news “talent” about whether he’s a “democratic socialist” and answer, “Yes, I am.”

We can debate what that means, as opposed to being a socialist or a social democrat, but the point remains — Sanders wears and has worn the label “socialist” with not just pride but with a refreshing in-your-face assertiveness. And yet he is threatening to upend the presumed front-runner in this race — an avowed capitalist. Why? Because most Americans are fed up with the rapacity and inherent corruption of American capitalism.

During its coverage of the debate, NBC flashed on its screen the results of a Seltzer & Co. poll of likely voters planning to attend Iowa’s Democratic caucuses on Feb. 1. They had been asked whether they considered themselves capitalists or socialists. The surprise result: 38% said they were capitalist, and 43% said they identified themselves as socialist.

My complaint, and that of many on the left, regarding Sanders has been his record over the years since he became a member of Congress in 1990, of supporting US military actions abroad, as well as other imperialist policies, such as the deadly 1990s embargo of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq which reportedly led to the death by disease of as many as half a million Iraqi children who had to drink untreated water because of the resulting unavailability of chlorine.

Sanders makes much of his having opposed the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but he was a supporter of the Clinton war on Serbia and the bombing of Kosovo in 1999. He also supported the Bush/Cheney administration’s launching of war against Afghanistan in 2001, and the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) resolution that doubled as a declaration of the more or less unending so-called War on Terror. More recently, Sanders has supported US military intervention in the civil war in Syria, and as recently as Sunday’s debate reiterated his horrific call for the US to insist on having the “wealthy Arab states” in the region take on the job of fighting ISIS — a call that would have the US providing deadly arms to some of the most brutal dictatorships in the world to help them slaughter people in Syria.

Sanders has been a stalwart backer of Israel too, at least while in Congress, though earlier he had been critical of its treatment of Palestinians.

This is pretty wretched stuff, and makes supporting Sanders’ campaign a tough position to defend. But I think given the state of US politics it is the right thing to do at this juncture.

Why? Because it looks like Sanders has a real chance to defeat a craven warmonger, Hillary Clinton — a neoliberal who hasn’t met a war she doesn’t like, and whose bloodlust and unthinking support for Israel makes Sanders look like a pale imitation. At least Sanders did say Israeli forces, in their last attack on Gaza, had gone too far, for example by bombing a UN compound. Clinton, for her part, had no criticism of IDF viciousness — she actually defended it — and earlier even went out of her way to defend the IDF’s murderous 2010 assault on an unarmed peace flotilla sent from Turkey towards Gaza carrying relief supplies (an assault that included the brutal IDF murder of a young American-born activist).

But my point is not that Sanders is a less monstrous defender of US imperialism than Clinton, though that’s clearly true. It’s that given the issues facing us and the globe, a Sanders presidency — and if he defeats Clinton and manages to win the Democratic nomination for president polls suggest he would likely defeat, even soundly defeat, any of the current Republican candidates for that office — would represent a sea change in American politics.

Vladimir Lenin, back in 1917, wrote an important work: Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism. In it, he advanced Marx’s theories about capitalism into the 20th century to explain how capitalism had moved beyond just extracting surplus value from the workers of individual countries, to exploiting the vast population of the Third World in search of ever harder to obtain profits.

I would argue that what we are now seeing in the 21st century is a rising Third World that, with increasing success, is resisting that imperialist model. Russia, China, Brazil and other countries are banding together and are effectively blocking the ability of the US to continue exploiting them. The dollar is losing its grip as a global currency, and with that, the US is losing its ability to simply ignore its ballooning trade deficits in order to finance its imperial schemes.

The crisis in the US is now a domestic crisis, and the American working class (even in the higher reaches of the so-called middle class) is reaching a point of anger, fear and desperation where it is ready to support radical change. Of course one way societies can go in such a crisis is towards fascism, as represented in the Republican Party today by the likes of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. The other way would be towards socialism, as represented by Sanders.

Granted that backing a Sanders candidacy means having to hold one’s nose and ignore his pro-imperialist positions on things like Syria’s civil war, and perhaps even on the Obama administration’s dangerous efforts to confront Russia on its western doorstep. But I think in the end, if elected, Sanders’ clear focus on wanting to create a modern European-style social-democratic state in the US, with a more secure, generous Social Security system, a Canadian-style universal medicare system for all Americans, and a system of free public education through college, would compel him to pull the nation back from imperial over-reach and continuous war. It’s a simple matter of budget priorities: There is no way any of his key programs could be funded if the military and the fading empire it props up continue to claim more than half of all discretionary federal spending.

Furthermore, if Sanders succeeds in winning the presidency, and if, as some polls suggest could happen, he wins big and brings in Democratic majorities in one or both houses of Congress along with him, he has vowed to attack and break up the power of the big financial companies, and to end the control of moneyed interests over the political system. These are important actions that, while difficult to pull off, could be done. The public clearly wants it to happen, and a Sanders electoral victory would mean that they’re serious about that.

Sanders is not, like Obama or Bill Clinton, a mealy compromiser and “triangulator.” He’s not financially beholden to special interests, or interested in winning lucrative seats on corporate boards or earning huge speaker “fees” after leaving office (as the always acquisitive Hillary Clinton has done). One of the least wealthy members of the millionaires’ club called Congress, Sanders is a life-long fighter for working people, for equal rights for minorities and women, for the environment, and if he wins the White House, he can be expected to go for broke in tackling his big goals.

I would argue that if Sanders succeeds in attacking Wall Street and corporate corruption of the political system, and maintains his principles and plain-spokenness about them, public support for the US war machine will wither. Lenin’s “highest stage of capitalism” will collapse under its own ponderous weight if the power of the capitalist elite inside the US to run the US government as if it were just another corporate subsidiary were seriously eroded.

So there it is. I don’t know how readers feel, but I’m convinced that Sanders, despite his sorry record of support for US militarism, is the real deal, not just a socialist poseur. Not only is he far and away the most serious leftist to sport a real chance of taking the White House in my lifetime (and I was born in the first half of the 20th century!), but the alternative is either Hillary Clinton — a greedy willing servant of capitalist crooks on Wall Street and a neoliberal former Secretary of State with blood on her hands who has supported coups in Latin America and eastern Europe (Honduras and Ukraine), and who enthusiastically supports endless wars and interventions — or alternatively one of several fascists in the Republican candidates’ stable, among them people who talk blithely of “carpet bombing” the Middle East, tossing American muslims into concentration camps or driving undocumented Latinos like cattle across the border into Mexico, and even of going to war with Russia and/or China.

If a vote for Bernie in the primaries was just a symbolic thing and he had no chance of beating Clinton, I’d probably still vote for him, just to ding Clinton. But he does have a chance, which means we on the left need to enthusiastically work to help him win. And if he does manage to win the Democratic nomination and goes up against some Republican, there is no question in my mind: he can win and must be actively supported.

A Sanders victory in November would not be just another depressing case of chosing “the lesser of two evils.” Warts and all, it would still represent a real people’s victory.

Standing on principle and voting for a Third Party in such a situation would be a travesty (Lenin would have called such behavior “infantile leftism”).

Besides, if you’re looking for a another good reason to support Sanders, consider this: Bill O’Reilly, the blowhard Fox-TV promoter of racism and fascism, has vowed to “leave the country” if Sanders becomes president.

Libya Forms Unity Government

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By James Crisp

(EurActiv) — A Libyan unity government was formed Tuesday in a UN-brokered deal, as mayors from the war-torn nation agreed to work together with EU and Mediterranean city leaders to rebuild the country into a modern state.

World powers are appealing to the country’s rival parliaments to back the new administration to end political paralysis that has provided fertile ground for jihadists and people-smugglers. Less than half of the members of the two parliaments signed up to the UN-sponsored agreement last month.

The news from Tripoli broke during the plenary session of the Euro-Mediterranean Regional and Local Assembly (ARLEM) in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Mayor of Tripoli Abdelrauf Beitelmal was at meeting of municipal bosses from the three shores of the Mediterranean, and the Committee of the Regions.

He told EurActiv, “As long as the government is approved, it is good enough for me. That’s what we need, we need some stability and peace.”

“It doesn’t matter who is in there, who cares as long as it is approved and can work?”

Beitelmal and the Mayor of Zintan, Mustafa Al Baruni, attended the ARLEM session as observers. At least two other mayors were meant to attend, but ran into visa and security problems.

A third mayor, Yosof Ibderi, who hails from Ghariya, was shot in the legs ten days ago. Delegates heard he continued to run his city from his hospital bed.

At the meeting in Cyprus, a new initiative – dubbed the Nicosia Platform by Committee of the Regions President Markku Markkula – was announced.

Markkula said that EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini had personally told him that such municipal contacts were a priority for the bloc.

The platform will allow mayors and city leaders to share expertise and know-how on issues such as waste management, city planning, governance and regulatory frameworks.

Much of that infrastructure and expertise had been lost in the bloody civil war, delegates were told. Libyans had to learn to become administrators and citizens.

“Libya has never been a source of tension and instability in the Mediterranean, but now we are going through a severe crisis,” Zintan’s Al Baruni said.

“We need your support so we can regain our status as an actor in the euro-Mediterranean,” he said. “The Libyan people have always dreamt of a modern state.”

Tripoli’s Beitelmal said the war in Libya had an impact with how countries that had supported the Libyan revolution dealt with Libya, leading to problems with extremism, terrorism and illegal migration.

“We cannot combat illegal migration from only one side. We need to work together and we need real support,” he stated.

“But the Libyan people never felt regret about revolting against the previous regime. All the prices that we pay are legitimate,” he added.

As the session continued, feelers were put out among city leaders as to which regions could contribute to training and information sharing.

Flanders, for example, is earmarked to share expertise on water management, while Sicily has provisionally offered to help on universities.

Asked about the impact of the new unity government on the new platform, brokered by the mayor of Nicosia, Constantinos Yiorkadjis, Beitelmal was cautiously optimistic.

“The two things should go hand in hand,” he said. “But in reality – how will it work?”

Unity government

The unity government, headed by businessman Fayez al-Sarraj, who was named prime minister-designate under the UN-sponsored accord, comprises 32 ministers, the administration announced on its Facebook page.

“I congratulate Libyan people & Presidency Council on formation of Govt. of National Accord,” UN envoy Martin Kobler wrote on Twitter.

He urged the country’s internationally recognised parliament, the House of Representatives, to “promptly convene” and endorse the unity government.

There was no immediate reaction from the country’s two legislatures. Kobler, a veteran German diplomat, became UN special envoy for Libya in November, taking on his predecessor Bernardino Leon’s task of brokering a unity government.

Libya has been in chaos since the 2011 ouster of longtime dictator Muamar Gadaffi. A militia alliance, including Islamists, overran Tripoli in August 2014, establishing its own government and parliament, and causing the internationally recognised administration to flee to the country’s remote east.

The power-sharing deal has been given added urgency by fears that the Islamic State jihadist group, under pressure in Syria and Iraq, is building a new stronghold on Europe’s doorstep.

EU foreign policy chief Mogherini said the agreement on the members of the unity government was an “essential step” in implementing the UN-brokered deal.

“It is now for the House of Representatives and its Presidency to show the same spirit of compromise and sense of leadership, and promptly convene to endorse the proposed cabinet,” she said in a statement.

Islamic State Confirms ‘Jihadi John’ Is Dead

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Islamic State has confirmed that ‘Jihadi John,’ a British jihadist featured in many of the group’s execution videos, was killed in an airstrike in Syria.

The latest issues of IS’ magazine, Dabiq, confirmed that Abu Muharib Al-Muhajir, who “made headlines around the world as Jihadi John” had indeed been killed. His car was targeted in a “strike by an unmanned drone”, which killed the terrorist “instantly.”

Jihadi John “finally achieved” what he has “sought for so long” on November 12, 2015, the pamphlet said.

From August 2014, Jihadi John appeared in a series of graphic videos uploaded to YouTube, in which he beheaded his victims. The terrorist, whose real name was Mohammed Emwazi, was responsible for the brutal execution of two British aid workers, David Haines and Alan Henning, among other hostages.

In each of the clips, Jihadi John appeared wearing his signature black robe, with a black balaclava covering his face. In a rare unmasked appearance the infamous butcher also threatened to return to the UK to “cut heads off.”

It is widely believed that Jihadi John was born in Kuwait, and arrived in the UK in 1993. He was the only Muslim student in his class at St. Mary Magdalene Church of England primary school in Maida Vale, West London. He regularly attended a mosque with his parents and five siblings, as well as embracing the British culture of his classmates, according to reports.

The IS publication claimed that Jihadi John had managed to deceive authorities on several occasions and was sneaking across borders freely. Once he was allegedly detained by the UK’s MI5, as he tried to make his way from Britain to Kuwait, but was able to trick the agents by “presenting himself as unintelligent” and got away “right under the nose of the much-overrated MI5 British intelligence agency.”

He was alleged to have been killed in a drone strike in mid-November 2015 in the jihadist Syrian stronghold, Raqqua, shortly after the deadly Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terror attacks in Paris.

Israel: Businesses Should End Settlement Activity, Says HRW

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Businesses should stop operating in, financing, servicing, or trading with Israeli settlements in order to comply with their human rights responsibilities, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. Those activities contribute to and benefit from an inherently unlawful and abusive system that violates the rights of Palestinians.

The 162-page report, “Occupation, Inc.: How Settlement Businesses Contribute to Israel’s Violations of Palestinian Rights,” documents how settlement businesses facilitate the growth and operations of settlements. These businesses depend on and contribute to the Israeli authorities’ unlawful confiscation of Palestinian land and other resources. They also benefit from these violations, as well as Israel’s discriminatory policies that provide privileges to settlements at the expense of Palestinians, such as access to land and water, government subsidies, and permits for developing land.

“Settlement businesses unavoidably contribute to Israeli policies that dispossess and harshly discriminate against Palestinians, while profiting from Israel’s theft of Palestinian land and other resources,” said Arvind Ganesan, director of the business and human rights division. “The only way for businesses to comply with their own human rights responsibilities is to stop working with and in Israeli settlements.”

More than a half million Israeli settlers live in 237 settlements throughout the Israeli-occupied West Bank, including in East Jerusalem. Successive Israeli governments have facilitated this process, but businesses also play a critical role in establishing and expanding settlements, and enabling them to function.

Under the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, companies should respect human rights and identify and mitigate any adverse human rights impact their operations may cause. But because of the nature of settlements, which are inherently illegal under the Geneva Conventions, companies cannot mitigate their contribution to Israel’s violations so long as they operate in settlements or engage in settlement-related commercial activity, Human Rights Watch said.

The Fed’s Role In The Stock Market Slide – OpEd

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When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P peaked in May 2015, investors were still confident that the Fed “had their back” and that any steep or prolonged downturn in stocks would be met with additional liquidity and a firm commitment to maintain zero rates as long as necessary.  But now that the Fed has started its long-awaited rate-hike cycle, investors aren’t sure what to expect.

This growing uncertainty coupled with flagging earnings reports have factored heavily in Wall Street’s recent selloff. Unless the Fed is able to restore confidence by promising to take steps that support the markets,  stocks are going to continue get hammered by economic data that’s bound to deteriorate as 2016 drags on.

For the last few years, investors have relied on the so called “Bernanke Put” to prevent significant stock losses while the real economy continued to sputter and underperform.  The moniker refers to the way the Fed adds liquidity to the markets during periods of stress to put a floor under stocks. Investors have been so confident in this safety-net system that they’ve dumped trillions of dollars into equities even though underlying fundamentals have remained weak and the economy has sputtered along at an anemic 2 percent per year. Investors believed  the Central Bank could move stocks higher, and they were right.

The Dow Jones has more than doubled since it touched bottom on March 9, 2009 while the S&P soared to a new-high (2,130 points) on May 21, 2015, tripling its value at the fastest pace on record. These extraordinary gains are the direct result of the Fed’s not-so-invisible hand in the financial markets. Betting on the Fed’s ability to move markets higher has clearly been a winning strategy.

So why are stocks crashing now?

Because everything has changed.  Up to now, “bad news has been good news and good news has been bad news”. In other words, for the last few years, every time the economic data worsened and the media reported flagging retail sales, bulging business inventories, shrinking industrial production, anemic consumer credit, droopy GDP or even trouble in China–stocks would rally as investors assumed the Fed would intensify its easy money policies.

Conversely, when reports showed the economy was gradually gaining momentum,  stocks would drop in anticipation of an early end to the zero rates and QE.  This is how the Fed reversed traditional investor behavior and turned the market on its head. Stock prices no longer had anything to do with earnings potential or prospects for future growth; they were entirely determined by the availability of cheap money and infinite liquidity. In other words, the market system which, in essence, is a pricing mechanism that adjusts according to normal supply-demand dynamics–ceased to exist.

This topsy-turvy “good is bad, bad is good” system lasted for the better part of six years buoying stocks to new highs while bubbles emerged everywhere across the financial spectrum and while corporate bosses engaged in all manner of risky behavior like stock buybacks which presently exceed $4 trillion.

The Fed’s commitment to begin a cycle of rate hikes (aka–“normalization”) threatens to throw the financial markets into reverse which will slash stock prices to levels that reflect their true market value absent the Fed’s support. The question is: How low will they go?  No one really knows the answer, but given the sharp slide in corporate earnings, the stormy conditions in the emerging markets, the unprecedented decline in oil prices, and the buildup of deflationary pressures in the global economy; the bottom could be a long way off.

One thing is certain, the Fed will do everything in its power to prevent stocks from dropping to their March 2009-lows. Unfortunately,   further meddling could be extremely risky which might explain why the Fed has not yet responded to the recent equities-plunge. As I see it, the greatest risks to the system fall into three main categories:

1) Asset bubbles

2) Danger to the US Dollar

3) Threat to US Treasuries market

It could be that the Fed is afraid that any additional easing will burst the bubble in stocks and bonds triggering a wave of defaults that could lead to another financial crisis. Or it could be that another round of QE (QE4?) could weaken the dollar at the precise moment that foreign rivals are threatening to topple the USD as the world’s reserve currency which would greatly undermine Washington’s global power and prestige.

Or it could be that more easing could constrict the flow of foreign capital into UST’s. With petrodollar recycling at its lowest ebb in three decades and China already selling its cache of Treasuries to prop up its currency, a significant selloff of US debt could raise long-term interest rates sharply pushing the US economy deep into recession and forcing fiscal cutbacks that would leave the economy in the doldrums for years to come.

Whatever danger the Fed sees on the horizon, it’s clear that the road to normalization is going to involve more than a few speed-bumps along the way. As for stocks; the extreme volatility and downward movement can be expected to intensify as the markets shake off seven years of rate-suppression and monetary “pump priming”.

And while its still too early to know whether the recent turbulence signals the onset of another financial crisis, it certainly appears that Wall Street and the Fed are edging ever closer to their inevitable day of reckoning.

Geopolitics Of Cyber Defense And NATO’s Incirlik Airbase – Analysis

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By Mehmet Bildik*

Cyberspace has a significant difference from the geographies of land, sea, and air; it was created not by nature, but is an artificial construct that has components which might be used for geopolitical interest. Cyberspace is composed of hundreds of thousands of interconnected computers, servers, routers and fiber optic cables that allow critical infrastructure to function. The National Cyber Security Framework Manual issued by NATO in 2012 states that “cyberspace is more than the internet, including not only hardware, software and information systems, but also people and social interaction within these networks”. NATO has protected its superiority over the rimland geopolitical area by augmenting the conventional defense capability of NATO’s Incirlik Airbase within the framework of Turkish-Israeli cooperation, and given Russia’s hybrid warfare in Ukraine and its instatement of no-fly zones in Syria, the rimland geopolitical area strongly requires NATO’s cyber protection. It’s clear that cyberspace is directly related to physical geography, which together with politics is a key element of the science of geopolitics.

The world is divided into zones: the “heartland geopolitical area”, comprising much of Central Asia, and the “rimland geopolitical area”, which extends from Western Europe through the Arabian Peninsula to the Asian coasts. In the rimland, the most important waterways are located in the Middle East. According to rimland geopolitical theory “who controls the rimland rules Eurasia, who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world”. On that point, the Alliance of the Periphery or the Periphery Doctrine is a foreign policy strategy that has called for the State of Israel to develop a close strategic alliance with NATO member Turkey.

In the case of the Suez Crisis in 1956, a massive retaliation strategy provided the upper hand to United States and other European NATO allies in terms of “rimland geopolitics”, thus preventing the Soviet Union from securing a foothold in Egypt. The Suez Crisis enhanced Israel’s military capability while guaranteeing the United States’ position as the major Western power broker in the Middle East. All of this has also increased the importance of NATO’s Incirlik Airbase in Adana Turkey .With the start of the Lebanon Crisis in 1958, the U.S. Tactical Air Command Composite Strike Force, and the U.S. Air Force in Europe and supporting personnel were deployed to Incirlik Airbase. The base was used by U.S. Forces during the intervention into Lebanon later that summer.

In 1997 “Operation Northern Watch”, once again based out of NATO’s Incirlik Airbase and operating within the “rimland geopolitical area”, eased the burden of the United States in the Middle East, protecting the oil pipeline route between northern Iraq and the Adana Ceyhan seaport in Turkey. This impacted NATO’s New Strategic Concept with regard to Central Europe and Euro-Asia regarding the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo Albanians, which at that point had turned into an armed conflict, testing the Alliance’s credibility at its 50th anniversary. At this point, NATO launched an air campaign on 23 March 1999. As a result of the agreement between NATO and Yugoslavia on 10 June 1999, which proved NATO’s air supremacy within the realm of Euro-Asia geopolitics, NATO affirmed its commitment to promote peace, stability and freedom. Within this context, the Washington Summit contributed to the strengthening of NATO-Ukrainian relations. After the Summit meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission, NATO issued a declaration, reaffirming its support for “Ukrainian sovereignty and independence, territorial integrity, democratic development, economic prosperity as key factors of stability and security in Europe and Euro-Asia”.

Since the development of a rift in Turkish-Israeli relations in 2008, NATO-Russia confrontation in the post-Soviet space has occured with greater frequency. While United States diplomacy has focused on creating a system of democratic governance within Eurasian geopolitics, Russia has cautiously tried to revive the integration of the former Soviet Union. The objective of NATO in this regard have always been opposite: to force Moscow to recognize democratic regimes in Eurasia. The result of this approach has manifested in two crises of varying degrees of intensity in Georgia and Ukraine. The Euro-Atlantic Area of the 21st century still maintains a mind-set geared towards bipolar confrontation. In this sense, Ukraine can bee seen as a center of Eurasia geopolitics in which NATO and Russia have entered a period of rivalry- or a “game without rules”. Tensions have built over Moscow’s involvement in the war playing out in east Ukraine as unfolding conflict has come to see an increased use of the cyber warfare. Russian hackers have long been a problem for NATO as their cyber-attacks have been far more aggressive and have occured in greater number since the end of the Cold War.

After the Mavi Marmara episode, Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt a deep wound which paved the way for Russia to support the Syrian regime. As Russia backed Syria’s interception of a Turkish F-4 jet in the summer of 2012, radical changes in the region later compelled Turkey and Israel to initiate talks. In this regard, talk of Israeli-Turkish cooperation on Syria was further fuelled with the creation the “Iron Dome” model with the deployment of PATRIOT missiles at NATO’s Incirlik Airbase. In the same year, the integration of cyber defense into the NATO Defense Planning Process began. Allied leaders reaffirmed their commitment to improve the Alliance’s cyber defences by bringing the entiretiy of NATO’s network under centralised protection and by implementing a series of upgrades to the NATO Computer Incident Response. In this way, it may be said that Turkish- Israeli talks at the strategic level helped NATO to protect its supremacy in Eurasian geopoltics by way of deploying PATRIOT missiles and boosting cyber defense.

Israel’s entrepreneuiral spirit and impressive security expertise have made the country a world leader in the sector of cyber security software. Israel is now the second largest exporter of cyber products and services after the United States. Israel also established a new national authority for Operative Cyber Defense which Israel is smart to focus on a collective and participatory approach to online security because the inter-connectedness of online systems and proliferation of mobile devices make every individual a potential for cyber-breach. Israel can play a central role in the creation of an operational alliance similar to that of NATO on which military type of coalition that will co-defend like-minded nations in a very coarse and indelicate comparison, like Article 5 of NATO namely like a Cyber Article 5. On that point, Israel Defense Force (IDF) Colonel Gabi Siboni, an expert on cyber security, says “ Iran is emerging as one of the most dangerous cyber threats”.

This development comes as a new military- strategic formation emerges between Turkey and the Gulf states of the “rimland geopoltical area”. While Turkey and Israel set out to normalize their relation, Turkey, as a secular country without involving in any sectrarian issue, may seek to protect all oil production plants in the Middle East by employing Israeli cyber technology against Iranian malware attacks. In this vein, Turkish-Israeli cooperation in the field of cyber technology could allow Turkey to protect the cyber system of oil production plants in northern Iraq from cyber-attacks; here it is of special note that Israel is also importing oil come from northern Iraq via the Adana-Ceyhan saport.

The fate of NATO’s superiority in the on Eurasian space will be determined by the success or failure of Operation Inherent Resolve that is led by the United States against DAESH from the Incirlik Airbase. Considering this, NATO’s Incirlik Airbase should be converted into an “Advanced Cyber Center” in the region to halt Russian air capabilities over Syria and Crimea, After Turkey downed the Russian bomber late last year downed by Turkey, Russia’s Caspian Sea fleet has engaged in dangerous missile testing while a radar station which can monitor Istanbul and the Bosporus Strait, has been set up in Crimea. Such activities aim to test the communications between the operations centers of warships and air and surface targets. In this context, Turkish-Israeli cyber cooperation is vital within the “rimland geopolitcal area” if NATO is to ensure its superiority over Eurasia .

*Mehmet Bildik is a research fellow studying military and strategic affairs at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and research assistant at the military and strategic affairs cyber security program of the The Institute for National Security Studies under the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He received his MA degree at Bucharest National School of Political Science and Public Administration, Security and Diplomacy Scholarship holder under the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Pakistan, Aberrated Strategies And Strategic Stability: Forecast 2016

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By Vijay Shankar*

In the immediate aftermath of the 26/11 terrorist assault on Mumbai, a grisly prayer was being intoned in many of the two lakh mosques of Pakistan. The Qunut-e-Nazla, a prayer in times of war, was accompanied by a fervent imprecation that al Qaeda and the Pakistan Army fight India jointly. The verity of this statement is borne out by Azaz Syed in his recently published ‘tell-all book’, Secrets of Pakistan’s War on Al-Qaeda (Al-Abbas International 2014, P 69). The aim of the linkage was the creation of an Al-Qaeda State in Pakistan in the wake of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

The link between sub-conventional warfare and nuclear war fighting is at best a tenuous one. Conceptually, no nuclear policy, by the very nature of the weapon involved, can conceivably be inclusive of terror groups. And yet the strategic predicament posed by Pakistan is perverse, for their stratagem on select terror groups is that they are instruments of state policy. Now, consider this: Pakistan promotes a terrorist strike in India, and in order to counter conventional retaliation, uses tactical nuclear weapons, and then in order to degrade massive retaliation, launches a full blown counter force or counter value strike. This extreme chain of events would suggest the reality of a self-fulfilling logic of nuclear apocalypse.

A Pakistan that is controlled by a military-ISI-jihadi combine, is plagued by an obsession for parity with India and an inspiration that wallows in the idea of India as a threat in perpetuity (in great part to provide a reason for the army’s pretentious existence). One is spoilt for choice while discerning instances of Pakistan’s military-intelligence links with terrorist groups. It began at the time of partition, when tribal lashkars along with regulars invaded Kashmir; the clumsy and doomed Operation Gibraltar in 1965; state-sponsored insurgencies in the Kashmir valley during the 1980s and 90s; war following the 1999 invasion of Kargil; the failed attack on the Indian Parliament; the Kaluchak massacre of 2002; the 2008 Mumbai attacks; and the continuing low level insurgency across the Line of Control (LoC); and the latest manifestation was the failed assault on the Pathankot airbase on 02 January 2016 – coordinated with the failed assault on the Indian consulate at Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan, on 03 January 2016.

For India to suffer the violent effects of covert action in silence makes for poor internal as well as external policy. It is here that Pakistan will have to pay for Indian restraint (now frayed to the extreme), which in turn places before the Indian planner a host of considerations and a set of possible responses that include covert action against targets across the LoC or border who are known to have liaison with jihadi forces. Planners will do well to heed that it is Pakistan’s policy that has to be targeted; and more specifically, it is control of that nation by the ‘deep state’, by which is implied that the sway of the military-intelligence-jihadi combine must be subordinated.

Recently, this author engaged the US Secretary of State John Kerry’s International Security Advisory Board (on Strategic Stability, chaired by Dr. Raymond Jeanloz) in a dialogue on sub-continental strategic stability. During the deliberations with the group, two issues became apparent. First, the State Department group was split down the centre as to what defined strategic stability. The proposition on one side was the cold war paradigm that perceived stability through the ‘nuclear equilibrium’ prism – of survival through a nuclear first strike and then retaliating massively. A mirrored rationality of survivability and credibility of retaliation was of essence. The equilibrium between nuclear weapon states, from this perspective, was given surety by developing a nuclear war fighting capability and retaining a ‘limited nuclear option’ at hair trigger notice to control the escalatory ladder. This “Strangelovesque” advocacy appeared to disregard the fact that limits on use of nuclear weapons (by the nature of the weapon) defied escalatory control.

Second, the group also perceived the potential of terrorists being armed with nuclear devices justifying collaboration with Pakistan at any cost; this presented a strategic irony since it was the Pakistan deep state that made terror groups an instrument of state policy in the first place.

On the other side of the divide was the group that saw, in the contracting role of the US in Afghanistan, a diminishing utility of Pakistan. The sense that emerged was the need for strategic recalibration of their Pakistan policy. A common discernment in this group was that time had come to contend with the deep state in Pakistan for its’ duplicity throughout the US’ war on terror, beginning with the evacuation of jihadis at Kunduz; providing a haven for al Qaeda; providing vital intelligence to various terror organisations; screening the AQ Khan network; or indeed, providing sanctuary to Osama bin Laden. This group also found definition in a holistic analysis of the various determinants that contributed to strategic stability (in line with this author’s presentation). The determinants ranged from historical wholeness to geographic recognition; politico-social-religio conformity to economic friction; purpose and adequacy of military power; to the quest for a stasis; and lastly, the correlation between leaderships.

The question then reduced to what manner, intensity and degree did the interplay of determinants influence inter-state relationships? While it was generally accepted that transactions between determinants could either spell proclivity towards a symbiotic approach in relations, or it could persistently precipitate friction and conflict. In both cases, the basis of outcomes were largely predicated on discernability and rationality of both polity and leadership.

Unfortunately, the South Asian context is blurred by three contumacious factors. First, Pakistan’s cultivated reluctance to accept the anthropological reality of their identity as sub-continental Muslims, the preferred fiction is in favour of Arab or Central Asian descent rather than the truth of the vast majority being descendants of converts. This poses a unique dilemma when leveraging civilisational empathy as the basis of amity. Second, military power without political accountability views itself as the sacred keeper and absolute champion of national interests; and this presents an awkward predicament as to who is in charge when dealing with that State. But the most impious obstacle promoted by the deep state is its one track agenda of hostility towards India as the basis of its ascendancy. After all, if the question is put to the Pakistan establishment as to whether they accept a regime of strategic stability, the answer will most certainly be in the affirmative, with the caveat that control of the nation remain in the hands of the military-intelligence-jihadi nexus.

The strategic nuclear ‘self-fulfilling logic’ mentioned earlier cannot be the basis of doing business with Pakistan. For far too long, the world, and the US in particular, has taken an ambiguous and at times set double standards for terror groups and their sponsors. What needs to be recognised is that terrorism emanating from Pakistan is, unequivocally, a global scourge; and no other interests can justify their continuation. For as former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton famously put it, Islamabad could not keep “snakes” in its backyard to strike its neighbours. She said, “It’s like that old story – you can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.”

The establishment that promotes it as an instrument of state policy must be targeted internationally through exacting sanctions while the perpetrators of terror along with their handlers and infrastructure must be struck by covert military action.

* Vijay Shankar
Former Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command of India and Distinguished Fellow IPCS


Explosive Underwater Volcanoes A Major Feature Of ‘Snowball Earth’

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Around 720-640 million years ago, much of the Earth’s surface was covered in ice during a glaciation that lasted millions of years. Explosive underwater volcanoes were a major feature of this ‘Snowball Earth’, according to new research led by the University of Southampton.

Many aspects of this extreme glaciation remain uncertain, but it is widely thought that the breakup of the supercontinent Rodinia resulted in increased river discharge into the ocean. This changed ocean chemistry and reduced atmospheric CO2 levels, which increased global ice coverage and propelled Earth into severe icehouse conditions.

Because the land surface was then largely covered in ice, continental weathering effectively ceased. This locked the planet into a ‘Snowball Earth’ state until carbon dioxide released from ongoing volcanic activity warmed the atmosphere sufficiently to rapidly melt the ice cover. This model does not, however, explain one of the most puzzling features of this rapid deglaciation; namely the global formation of hundreds of metres thick deposits known as ‘cap carbonates’, in warm waters after Snowball Earth events.

The Southampton-led research, published in Nature Geoscience, now offers an explanation for these major changes in ocean chemistry.

Lead author of the study Dr Tom Gernon, Lecturer in Earth Science at the University of Southampton, said, “When volcanic material is deposited in the oceans it undergoes very rapid and profound chemical alteration that impacts the biogeochemistry of the oceans. We find that many geological and geochemical phenomena associated with Snowball Earth are consistent with extensive submarine volcanism along shallow mid-ocean ridges.”

During the breakup of Rodinia, tens of thousands of kilometres of mid-ocean ridge were formed over tens of millions of years. The lava erupted explosively in shallow waters producing large volumes of a glassy pyroclastic rock called hyaloclastite. As these deposits piled up on the sea floor, rapid chemical changes released massive amounts of calcium, magnesium and phosphorus into the ocean.

Dr Gernon explained, “We calculated that, over the course of a Snowball glaciation, this chemical build-up is sufficient to explain the thick cap carbonates formed at the end of the Snowball event.

“This process also helps explain the unusually high oceanic phosphorus levels, thought to be the catalyst for the origin of animal life on Earth.”

Nearly Half Of All US Counties Have Ticks That Transmit Lyme Disease

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Lyme disease is transmitted by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) and the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), and the range of these ticks is spreading, according to research published in the Journal of Medical Entomology.

Some symptoms of Lyme disease include fever, headache, and fatigue, all of which can be mistaken for the common flu, so medical personnel need to know where these ticks are found in order to make a correct diagnosis. Unfortunately, the range of blacklegged ticks had not been re-evaluated in nearly two decades, until now.

Dr. Rebecca Eisen, a research biologist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, observed that the last comprehensive survey of blacklegged tick distribution was published in 1998. To remedy this, she and her colleagues performed a new survey to establish the current geographic distribution.

The team used surveillance methods similar to those used in 1998 so that they would be able to accurately judge the degree to which the distribution of these ticks had changed. Using the gathered data, they figured out which counties had established populations, which ones had one or more reports of a blacklegged ticks, and which ones had none.

They found that the blacklegged tick has been reported in more than 45% of U.S. counties, compared to 30% of counties in 1998. Even more alarming, the blacklegged tick is now considered established in twice the number of counties as in 1998.

Most of the geographic expansion of the blacklegged tick appears to be in the northern U.S., while populations in southern states have remained relatively stable. The range of the western blacklegged tick only increased from 3.4% to 3.6% of counties.

“This study shows that the distribution of Lyme disease vectors has changed substantially over the last nearly two decades and highlights areas where risk for human exposure to ticks has changed during that time,” Dr. Eisen said. “The observed range expansion of the ticks highlights a need for continuing and enhancing vector surveillance efforts, particularly along the leading edges of range expansion.”

Days That Led To Insurgency In Kashmir – Analysis

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By Manoj Joshi*

The next three days resonate loudly in the history of modern Jammu & Kashmir. It was on these days that the course of the insurgency was set, but they are remembered for different reasons by the Kashmiri Pandits and Kashmiri Muslims. So confused were the times that the dates vary in different accounts.

Kashmiri Pandits today are convinced that their mass exodus began on January 19, the record will probably show that it spanned out through the first six months of the fateful year of 1990.Though the state had gone through turbulent weeks since the release of four top JKLF leaders on December 13, 1989, it was yet to see mass demonstrations that were to break out on January 19 following the appointment of Jagmohan as governor. On the next day, in a bid to show the new governor that they were actively implementing the curfew in the Valley, the state police chief and the CRPF ordered a crackdown which had the paradoxical impact of triggering mass demonstrations. So, the next day January 21, when Jagmohan and his security adviser Ved Marwah arrived in Srinagar, the police had lost control of the situation and the Army had to be called out to enforce the curfew. There were firings at several places resulting in many deaths, the largest number in Gowkadal. Official figures claimed 12 dead there, but unofficial estimates run between 38 and 100 and this has entered the books as the “Gowkadal massacre.”

The JKLF now decided to make January 26 their make or break day. The plan was to have small groups of people converge on the Idgah grounds on the pretext of offering prayers for the “martyrs.” Here, the Indian flag would be burnt accompanied by a declaration of independence. When foreign correspondents began arriving in the city, reportedly expecting a “big event” on that day, Jagmohan pre-emptively declared a curfew and made it clear that it would be enforced, as it was on January 21. The crowds stayed at home and the long insurgency began.

There have been several mass killings in J&K such as the Chapanari massacre in Doda, the Prankote killings in Udhampur district in 1998, the Chittisinghpura massacre in Anantnag, the Amarnath mass killing in 2000, the Khistwar massacre of 2001, Qasim Nagar massacre and Kaluchak killings in 2002, and the Doda killings of 2006.

Two major mass killing targetting the Pandits — the Wandhama massacre of 1998, where four children, nine women and 10 men were killed and the Nandimarg killings of 2003 when 11 men, 11 women and one child were killed.

The terror that led them to leave their homeland came from a stream of individual and often brutal murders of members of their community. The killings in late 1989 of Tika Lal Taploo, who headed the Kashmir unit of the BJP and N K Ganju, the sessions judge who sentenced Maqbool Bhat, were the harbingers of the future. The Pandit community began receiving threatening letters asking them to leave the Valley or face death. After January 20, some Pandits began sending out their families, while the men waited and watched. But in February, the killings, accompanied by random acts of brutality, became more persistent. Lassa Kaul, the head of the Doordarshan centre in Srinagar and executive engineer Ashok Misri were shot followed by Satish Tikoo, a young social activist who lived in Habbakadal. Ashok Qazi, who worked in the agriculture department was shot in the legs and left wounded for hours before the terrorists put him out of his misery. A week later Navin Saproo, a telecom engineer was shot dead in Kanikadal, Srinagar. On February 27, Tej Kishen was kidnapped, tortured and killed.

By May 1990, some 80 Pandits had been killed, some with great brutality. From February onwards the Pandits began leaving and by June some 58,000 families had relocated to camps in Jammu and New Delhi. Jagmohan tried his best, but there was little he could do to assuage the fear of a community that felt abandoned and helpless. With the BJP taking up the cause of the migrants, the secular establishment, sadly, played down the enormous human tragedy that had unfolded.

The Janata Dal government that came to power for 18 months after the elections of 1989, appeared to be in a constant state of crisis. Prime Minister V P Singh had little time or the inclination to pay attention to Kashmir. Actually, the entire political establishment of the country had not quite grasped as to what was happening in the state. In Jagmohan, it had a sincere, but limited man as a governor. In any case without New Delhi paying attention, there was no question of evolving the necessary strategy to deal with J&K. And so it has been since then. Many of the Pandits who fled, remain in exile, and even now New Delhi doesn’t seem to have a clear idea as to what its goals are in the state.

Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and columnist on these issues. As a reporter, he has written extensively on issues relating to Siachen, Pakistan, China, Sri Lanka and terrorism in Kashmir and Punjab.

This article originally appeared in Mid Day.

Assessing Impact Of Human-Induced Climate Change

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The past century has seen a 0.8°C (1.4°F) increase in average global temperature, and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the overwhelming source of this increase has been emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants from human activities. Scientists have also observed that many of Earth’s glaciers, ecosystems and other systems are already being impacted by rising regional temperatures and altered rainfall amounts and patterns.

What remains unclear is precisely what fraction of the observed changes in these climate-sensitive systems can confidently be attributed to human-related influences, rather than mere natural regional fluctuations in climate. So Gerrit Hansen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Dáithí Stone of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) developed and applied a novel methodology for answering this challenging question. Their work was published in Nature Climate Change on December 21, 2015.

Their computer modeling-based study focused on various particular regional impacts around the world identified in the last IPCC report (such as melting glaciers and snow ice in Europe, changes in terrestrial ecosystems in Asia, wildfires in the state of Alaska, etc.). The IPCC report listed over 100 such impacts of various kinds in various regions across the globe. The Hansen-Stone study focused on the regional climate trends relevant to these impacts over the 40-year period 1971-2010.

Using a sophisticated algorithm, the study essentially required satisfaction of three distinct types of tests. First, the algorithm assessed the adequacy of the available climate data–the so-called observational record–related to the particular regional impact over the 40-year period. Was the data sufficient to provide a basis for understanding what actually had been taking place? Next, the algorithm determined whether the climate models the researchers used provided sufficient resolution or detail concerning regional climate so as to be considered an appropriate source of information. Finally, the researchers examined collections of model simulations with and without human emissions factored in to understand to what degree human emissions were responsible for a given impact, by comparing these simulations against observed trends.

The result of each test of data set quality or of observation-simulation agreement was expressed as a numerical score, and then these scores were merged into an overall measure of confidence in the hypothesis that human-generated emissions have affected the regional climate, ranging from “none” to “very high”.

“There are many ways we could combine the scores,” said Stone, “but we found that it didn’t matter which plausible method we used–the results all pointed to the same conclusions.”

Their analysis revealed that almost two-thirds of the listed impacts related specifically to the warming over land and near the surface of the ocean could confidently be attributed to human-generated emissions. However, the researchers could not find the same kind of link for trends in precipitation.

According to Stone, cases where the link between human-generated greenhouse gas emissions and local warming trends were weak were often due to the fact that the climate observational record was insufficient in those regions to build a clear picture about what has been happening over the past several decades.

“Previous analyses linking observed impacts to climate change have been generic in nature, addressing whether there is an influence of human-related warming on impacts globally, without an inference to individual impacts,” said Hansen. “Our analysis is the first to bridge these gaps for a large range of impacts, by assessing the role of human-related emissions in each impact individually, including impacts related to trends in precipitation and sea ice.”

“Studies linking emissions to climate change impacts provide the most stringent test available for evaluating the accuracy and confidence of our projections of impacts in a future warmer world,” said Wolfgang Cramer, Director of the Mediterranean Institute for Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecology in Aix-en-Provence, France. “With these tests, we can be much more confident in our calculations of how a 4°C world will differ from a 1.5°C world. It is crucial that we continue to develop and maintain observational efforts around the world in order to continue documenting how the world is responding to our greenhouse emissions, as well as to agreed reductions in those emissions.”

Who Lost The White Working Class? – OpEd

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Why did the white working class abandon the Democrats?

The conventional answer is Republicans skillfully played the race card.

In the wake of the Civil Rights Act, segregationists like Alabama Governor George C. Wallace led southern whites out of the Democratic Party.

Later, Republicans charged Democrats with coddling black “welfare queens,“ being soft on black crime (“Willie Horton”), and trying to give jobs to less-qualified blacks over more-qualified whites (the battle over affirmative action).

The bigotry now spewing forth from Donald Trump and several of his Republican rivals is an extension of this old race card, now applied to Mexicans and Muslims – with much the same effect on the white working class voters, who don’t trust Democrats to be as “tough.”

All true, but this isn’t the whole story. Democrats also abandoned the white working class.

Democrats have occupied the White House for sixteen of the last twenty-four years, and in that time scored some important victories for working families – the Affordable Care Act, an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Family and Medical Leave Act, for example.

But they’ve done nothing to change the vicious cycle of wealth and power that has rigged the economy for the benefit of those at the top, and undermined the working class. In some respects, Democrats have been complicit in it.

Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama ardently pushed for free trade agreements, for example, without providing the millions of blue-collar workers who thereby lost their jobs any means of getting new ones that paid at least as well.

They also stood by as corporations hammered trade unions, the backbone of the white working class. Clinton and Obama failed to reform labor laws to impose meaningful penalties on companies that violated them, or enable workers to form unions with a simple up-or-down votes.

I was there. In 1992, Bill Clinton promised such reform but once elected didn’t want to spend political capital on it. In 2008, Barack Obama made the same promise (remember the Employee Free Choice Act?) but never acted on it.

Partly as a result, union membership sunk from 22 percent of all workers when Bill Clinton was elected president to fewer than 12 percent today, and the working class lost bargaining leverage to get a share of the economy’s gains.

In addition, the Obama administration protected Wall Street from the consequences of the Street’s gambling addiction through a giant taxpayer-funded bailout, but let millions of underwater homeowners drown.

Both Clinton and Obama also allowed antitrust enforcement to ossify – with the result that large corporations have grown far larger, and major industries more concentrated.

Finally, they turned their backs on campaign finance reform. In 2008, Obama was the first presidential nominee since Richard Nixon to reject public financing in his primary and general-election campaigns. And he never followed up on his reelection campaign promise to pursue a constitutional amendment overturning “Citizens United v. FEC,” the 2010 Supreme Court opinion opening the floodgates to big money in politics.

What happens when you combine freer trade, shrinking unions, Wall Street bailouts, growing corporate market power, and the abandonment of campaign finance reform?

You shift political and economic power to the wealthy, and you shaft the working class.

Why haven’t Democrats sought to reverse this power shift? True, they faced increasingly hostile Republican congresses. But they controlled both houses of Congress in the first two years of both Clinton’s and Obama’s administrations.

In part, it’s because Democrats bought the snake oil of the “suburban swing voter” – so-called “soccer moms” in the 1990s and affluent politically-independent professionals in the 2000s – who supposedly determine electoral outcomes.

Meanwhile, as early as the 1980s they began drinking from the same campaign funding trough as the Republicans – big corporations, Wall Street, and the very wealthy.

“Business has to deal with us whether they like it or not, because we’re the majority,” crowed Democratic representative Tony Coelho, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the 1980s when Democrats assumed they’d continue to run the House for years.

Coelho’s Democrats soon achieved a rough parity with Republicans in contributions from corporate and Wall Street campaign coffers, but the deal proved a Faustian bargain as Democrats become financially dependent on big corporations and the Street.

Nothing in politics is ever final. Democrats could still win back the white working class – putting together a huge coalition of the working class and poor, of whites, blacks, and Latinos, of everyone who has been shafted by the shift in wealth and power to the top.

This would give Democrats the political clout to restructure the economy – rather than merely enact palliatives that papered over the increasing concentration of wealth and power in America.

But to do this Democrats would have to stop obsessing over upper-income suburban swing voters, and end their financial dependence on big corporations, Wall Street, and the wealthy.

Will they? That’s one of the biggest political unknowns in 2016 and beyond.

Georgia’s Energy Minister To Meet Head Of Gazprom Export

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(Civil.Ge) — Georgian Energy Minister, Kakha Kaladze, said he will meet chief executives of Gazprom’s export arm, Elena Burmistrova, in Vienna on January 20.

“We will try to get a result, which will be acceptable for the country and the [energy] sector,” Kaladze said in an interview with Tbilisi-based Rustavi 2 TV.

According to the Georgian Energy Ministry it holds talks with Gazprom on terms of transit of Russian gas to Armenia via Georgia – Gazprom wants to pay cash as a transit fee instead of giving Georgia 10% of gas transported to Armenia.

Negotiations also involve possible purchase of additional gas from Gazprom, which will be required to fill the gap amid increasing gas consumption, according to the Georgian Energy Ministry. It says that the country will face this gap during the peak consumption in winter period before Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR upgrades capacity of pipeline infrastructure through which it supplies gas to Georgia and before the completion of the second phase of Shah Deniz project, scheduled for late 2018.

According to Kaladze, who met for three times with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller since September, Russia’s share in Georgia’s annual gas supplies may increase from current 11% to about 20% if Georgia starts importing additional volumes of gas from Gazprom.

Georgia consumed over 2.47 billion cubic meters of gas last year 88.5% of which was supplied from Azerbaijan, according to data provided by the Energy Ministry.

Azerbaijan: Baku Port Could Become Free Economic Zone

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By Maksim Tsurkov

Baku International Sea Trade Port can become a free economic zone (FEZ), which would enable to bring about $1 billion of foreign investments, Taleh Ziyadov, the port’s director general, told reporters Jan. 19.

“Our idea is to create not only a transit recovery, but also an economic one around the new Baku port. In global practice, this is achieved through the establishment of free, or special economic zones,” Ziyadov said.

He also said there is a proposal to create a free economic zone around the Alat port, as in Hong Kong or Jebel Ali, adding this will give a momentum to the non-oil sector’s development.

“This proposal is still at the project stage,” he noted.

“A part of the work has already been done. The initial conceptual master plan of the FEZ has been prepared,” Ziyadov said. “Conditions will be created in the port not only for transhipment of cargos, but also for packing and storing them. Creating the FEZ is extremely important from an economic point of view.”

This will allow attracting both domestic and foreign investments, he added.

“As practice shows, the state invests in creation of an appropriate infrastructure, and the rest of the investments are put from abroad by individuals. We believe the creation of a free economic zone here is one of the most important areas for attracting foreign investments in Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector,” Ziyadov added.

“It is difficult to talk about the exact amount of investments, but about $1 billion will be attracted in the first few years,” he added.


Djokovic’s Age Pivotal For Reaching Federer’s 17 Titles?

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With Rafael Nadal bowing out in the first round of the Australian Open, this is just the latest sign that it is Novak Djokovic, and not Rafa, who has the best shot to break Roger Federer’s record of 17 career men’s Grand Slam titles.

For a long time it looked like Nadal would be the one to catch Federer as Djokovic appeared to start his run a little too late and fell behind the pace. But what Djokovic appears to have is that he is surging at an age when the other top players were slowing down.

If Djokovic were to win the Australian Open, it would be his third Grand Slam at Age 28 alone.

Meanwhile, Nadal has not won a Grand Slam since turning 28 and Federer has only two titles since turning 28, and none since turning 30. If Djokovic can avoid the same sudden tail-off as the others, he has a decent shot to reach 17.

Tax Evasion Impacts Country Credit Ratings And Lending Costs

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High levels of tax evasion are linked to higher interest rates and can be a predictor of a country’s credit risk, according to a new study led by the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Researchers investigated the controversial role of the ‘informal’ or ‘shadow’ sector — activities that are not officially registered but do make an economic contribution — in the economies of 64 countries in the run-up to the current Eurozone crisis.

For the first time they focused on the impact the informal sector, which is directly linked to tax evasion, has on sovereign debt markets. They found that it has significant adverse effects on country credit ratings and lending costs. These results do not change with respect to the stage of economic development of a country.

Countries such as Switzerland, the United States, Luxemburg, Austria and Japan that had the smallest levels of informal economic activity — averaging between 8% and 11% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — faced low lending costs, under about 4%. In countries such as Panama, Peru, Uruguay, Honduras and Sri Lanka, where around half of the economy was untaxed, country lending costs were much higher and ranged between 7% and 10%. In comparison, the United Kingdom’s informal sector averaged at 12.4% of GDP, while its interest rate was 4.5%.

There was a wide variation in the level of the informal economy, even within developed countries. Those with the largest informal sector among member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) studied were Greece (26.86%), Italy (26.96%), Portugal (23.12%) and Spain (22.38%), all of which had around a quarter of economic activity untaxed and faced severe problems during the recent Eurozone debt crisis.

Publishing their findings today in the European Journal of Operational Research, the authors suggest that trying to reduce the amount of tax evasion in financially challenged countries is likely to help in relaxing credit risks and cutting lending costs. The study is particularly important given that previous research has not been able to show clearly if the informal economy has an overall positive or negative influence on economic activity and growth.

The research was led by Raphael Markellos, professor of finance at UEA’s Norwich Business School, working with Dr Dimitris Psychoyios from the University of Piraeus in Greece, and Prof Friedrich Schneider, a leading authority on shadow economies and tax evasion at Johannes Kepler University, Austria. They analysed country-specific financial data and other variables, such as inflation and unemployment rates, GDP, tax revenue and public debt, for the years 2003-2007.

In addition to the implications for government debt, the study also highlights that countries with a higher shadow economy face adverse general conditions with respect to balance of payments, deficit, inflation, unemployment, tax revenues, and Research & Development spend, as well as competitiveness, economic freedom, corruption and human development, for example in relation to life expectancy and education.

Prof Markellos said, “Given the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, any new findings about the drivers of country credit ratings and costs of debt are particularly valuable. Tax evasion harms the ability of a country to raise cheap debt in the international financial markets. This in turn can have damaging effects across the economy, including public spend and services, corporate investments, jobs, price levels, availability and cost of mortgages and consumer debt.

“In modern economies, everything is strongly related to the creditworthiness of the country you live in. If someone is not paying taxes, they are not only free-riding on public services but they are ultimately hurting the credit score of others.”

Prof Schneider added, “Those countries involved in the debt crisis in recent years have all had a high level of tax evasion, suggesting that this is likely to be part of the problem and of the solution. However, we should not ignore the possibility that stamping out tax evasion may also have negative side-effects for vulnerable parts of society and the economy, especially during times of crisis.”

‘Sovereign debt markets in light of the shadow economy’, Raphael Markellos, Dimitris Psychoyios and Friedrich Schneider, is published in the European Journal of Operational Research.

Pentagon Blocks Prisoner Releases From Guantánamo Including 74-Pound Yemeni Hunger Striker – OpEd

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As the US prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba begins its 15th year of operations, there has been a flurry of mainstream media interest, in part because 2016 is President Obama’s last year in office, and yet, when he was first inaugurated in January 2009, he promised to close Guantánamo within a year, an unfulfilled promise that is bound to tarnish his legacy unless he can make good on that promise in his last twelve months in office.

A major report was recently published by Reuters, which focused in particular on the ways in which the Pentagon has been obstructing the release of prisoners, as was clear from the title of the article by Charles Levinson and David Rohde: “Pentagon thwarts Obama’s effort to close Guantánamo.”

Blocking the release of 74-pound hunger striker Tariq Ba Odah

The article began with a damning revelation about Tariq Ba Odah, a Yemeni prisoner who has been on a hunger strike for seven years, and whose weight has dropped, alarmingly, to just 74 pounds (from 148 pounds on his arrival at the prison in 2002), and who is at risk of death. Ba Odah has been unsuccessful in his recent efforts to persuade a judge to order his release, but he is eligible for release anyway. Back in 2009, when President Obama established the high-level, inter-agency Guantánamo Review Task Force to assess all the prisoners’ cases, he was one of 30 Yemenis approved for release but placed in “conditional detention,” a category invented by the task force, which recommended that those placed in this category should only be freed when it was assessed — by whom, it was not explained — that the security situation in Yemen had improved.

However, as the entire US establishment has agreed that the security situation in Yemen is so grave that no Yemenis are to be repatriated, Ba Odah can be freed if a third country can be found that is prepared to offer him a new home, and to provide security assurances that are amenable to the US, like three of the 30 Yemenis placed in “conditional detention” in 2009. One was freed in the United Arab Emirates in November, and the other two were freed just days ago in Ghana, in the first of 17 planned releases from the prison in early 2016.

Nevertheless, as Reuters explained, although State Department officials invited a foreign delegation to Guantánamo in September — from a country that was not identified publicly — “to persuade the group to take … Ba Odah to their country,” these efforts were apparently thwarted by the Pentagon. As Reuters described it, “The foreign officials told the administration they would first need to review Ba Odah’s medical records.” Because of his hunger strike, they “wanted to make sure they could care for him.”

For six weeks, however, “Pentagon officials declined to release the records, citing patient privacy concerns,” and as a result the delegation “canceled its visit.” When officials then promised to provide the medical records, the delegation traveled to Guantánamo and “appeared set to take the prisoner off US hands,” as Reuters described the officials’ comments, but the Pentagon “again withheld Ba Odah’s full medical file.”

As Reuters also explained, “Multiple members of the National Security Council have intervened to demand that the Pentagon turn over his complete medical file,” but the Pentagon “has held firm,” and continues to cite patient privacy concerns.

Tariq Ba Odah’s lawyer, Omar Farah of the Center for Constitutional Rights, lambasted the Pentagon for its “baseless” claims. “Invoking privacy concerns is a shameless, transparent excuse to mask [Pentagon] intransigence,” he said, adding, “Mr. Ba Odah has provided his full, informed consent to the release of his medical records.”

A pattern of obstruction

The Reuters article proceeded to explain that, through “interviews with multiple current and former administration officials involved in the effort to close Guantánamo,” the struggle over Ba Odah’s medical records “was part of a pattern.” Since Obama became president seven years ago, the officials said, “Pentagon officials have been throwing up bureaucratic obstacles to thwart [his] plan to close Guantánamo.”

James Dobbins, the State Department special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2013 to 2014, told Reuters that “[n]egotiating prisoner releases with the Pentagon was like ‘punching a pillow.’” As he put it, DoD officials “would come to a meeting, they would not make a counter-argument,” but then “nothing would happen.” He explained that the Pentagon’s obstruction “resulted in four Afghan detainees spending an additional four years in Guantánamo after being approved for transfer.”

Officials also explained that the transfers of six prisoners to Uruguay and five to Kazakhstan (in December 2014) and of Shaker Aamer, the last British resident in Guantánamo, and Ahmed Ould Abdel Aziz, a Mauritanian (in October 2015), “were delayed for months or years by Pentagon resistance or inaction.”

In order to slow down the release of prisoners, Pentagon officials “have refused to provide photographs, complete medical records and other basic documentation to foreign governments willing to take” prisoners, according to the officials, who added that they “have made it increasingly difficult for foreign delegations to visit Guantánamo,” have “limited the time foreign officials can interview” prisoners and have “barred delegations from spending the night at Guantánamo.”

As Reuters noted, this obstruction has undoubtedly contributed significantly to the thwarting of President Obama’s intention to close Guantánamo, announced on the campaign trail in 2008, and promised on his second day in office. When he took office, there were 242 men at Guantánamo, “down from a peak of about 680 in 2003,” but today there are still 103 men held, and 44 of those, like Tariq Ba Odah, have been approved for release — 35 since 2009, and nine in the last two years via a new review process, the Periodic Review Boards.

Pentagon officials “denied any intentional effort to slow transfers,” and a White House spokesman “denied discord with the Pentagon,” but these positions were clearly at odds with the accounts given by the officials who spoke to Reuters for their report.

Tellingly, former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said in an interview that it was “natural for the Pentagon to be cautious on transfers that could result in detainees rejoining the fight against US forces,” as Reuters put it. “Look at where most of the casualties have come from — it’s the military,” he said.

The officials also confirmed that it was the Pentagon’s “slow pace in approving transfers” that “was a factor in President Obama’s decision to remove Hagel in February” last year. However, “amid continuing Pentagon delays,” his replacement, Ashton Carter, found himself “upbraided” by President Obama in a one-on-one meeting in September. Since then, as Reuters noted, “the Pentagon has been more cooperative” — hence the 17 men released — or scheduled to be released — January.

Nevertheless, the officials who spoke to Reuters emphasized that military officials “continue to make transfers more difficult and protracted than necessary,” and General John F. Kelly, the head of US Southern Command, which includes Guantánamo, was singled out for particular criticism. As Reuters described it, “They said that Kelly, whose son was killed fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, opposes the president’s policy of closing Guantanamo, and that he and his command have created obstacles for visiting delegations.”

Kelly denied the claims, but this is not the first time he has faced criticism. As Spencer Ackerman noted for the Guardian in August, and as I wrote about here, in an article entitled, “Ignoring President Obama, the Pentagon Blocks Shaker Aamer’s Release from Guantánamo,” Ackerman wrote, “The well of opposition to the transfers does not end with the defense secretary. Carter is supported by the staff of the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, as well as the powerful General John Kelly, head of US southern command, which oversees Guantánamo.”

How President Obama failed to keep his promise to close Guantánamo

In a handy re-cap of Obama’s presidency vis-à-vis Guantánamo, Reuters explained how, on his second day in office, Obama “signed an executive order mandating an immediate review of all 242 detainees then held in Guantánamo and requiring the closure of the detention center. A year later, a task force that included the Defense Department and US intelligence agencies unanimously concluded that 156 detainees were low enough security threats to be transferred to foreign countries.”

In the meantime, however, as Reuters described it, members of Congress “seized on reports that transferred detainees had returned to the fight to demand that Guantánamo remain open.” I would add that some lawmakers wanted — and still want — to have somewhere they can hold people indefinitely without charge or trial, and without having to explain themselves at all, and that this is at least as significant an explanation for the prison remaining open as the supposed — and exaggerated — recidivism issues, which I have written about repeatedly over the years, most recently here.

Reuters cited one example of a recidivist, “Abdul Qayum Zakir, also known as ‘Mullah Zakir,’ who hid his identity from Guantánamo interrogators and became the Taliban’s top military commander after his release.” He was then “responsible for hundreds of American deaths after returning to Afghanistan,” according to David Sedney, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia from 2009 to 2013. However, it is important to note that he — and other dangerous Afghans released — would not have been freed if the Pentagon had sought advice from its allies in Afghanistan, which, alarmingly, it never did.

Reuters then explained how, in late 2010, “Congress passed a law requiring the secretary of defense to personally certify to Congress that a released detainee ‘cannot engage or re-engage in any terrorist activity,’” an onerous imposition that meant that releases from the prison “slowed to a trickle.” Between January 2011 and August 2013, just five prisoners were freed “under an exception to the new law that allowed court-ordered releases to bypass the newly legislated requirements,” even though 86 men at the time had been approved for release by the task force. By January 2013, as Reuters described it, “the outlook was so bleak that the State Department shuttered the office tasked with handling the closure of Guantánamo” — although it must also be noted that throughout this period,president Obama sat on his hands, unwilling to spend political capital bypassing Congress, even though a waiver in the legislation allowed him to do so.

Explaining more about this period, Michael Williams, the former State Department deputy envoy for closing Guantánamo, said that, throughout these years, William Lietzau, deputy assistant secretary of defense for detainee policy, “was not supportive of a Guantánamo closure policy” and was “an obstacle to transfers inside the Pentagon.”

Lietzau left his job in 2013, and “denied obstructing transfers,” telling Reuters that, “in many cases, delays resulted from his concerns about the ability of foreign countries to monitor transferred detainees.” As he asked “You have guys who are cleared for transfer, but there is no way to get the assurances, so what do you do then?” The answer, it must be said, should have been to not make too many demands on the prisoners’ home countries or host countries, because, after all, these were — and are — men approved for release by high-level, inter-agency review processes, whose release is only approved because it is regarded that they do not pose a sufficient threat to continue holding. However, because of the semi-permanent state of hysteria about Guantánamo, emanating from those who want it kept open, getting out of the prison has become like getting out of an ever-growing series of airlocks — one door opens, only to reveal another that is closed.

In May 2013, responding to international criticism in response to a prison-wide hunger strike — from men who despaired at ever being released, or given anything resembling justice — President Obama promised to resume releasing prisoners; or, as Reuters put it, perhaps rather rather too grandly, “unveiled a new push to close the prison.” It was certainly true that he “appointed two new envoys, one at the Pentagon and one at the State Department, to oversee the prison’s closure,” and it is fair, I think, to say that “one of their top priorities was to transfer as many prisoners as possible to countries willing to take them.” However, as both myself and the US attorney Tom Wilner, with whom I founded the “Close Guantánamo” campaign in 2012, have pointed out, if he really meant business he would have appointed someone in the White House to deal with Guantánamo’s closure.

Delays in the release of four insignificant Afghans

It was during this timeframe, as Reuters described it, that the State Department “proposed that four low-risk Afghan detainees be transferred back to Afghanistan” — Khi Ali Gul, Shawali Khan, Abdul Ghani and Mohammed Zahir, who “ranged in age from their early 40s to their early 60s.” As Reuters put it, “All had been at Guantánamo for seven years but never formally charged with a crime, and all had been cleared for release by the interagency review board years earlier.”

In Gul’s case, Reuters noted, “State Department officials argued that he was almost certainly innocent.” James Dobbins, the State Department special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2013 to 2014, said, “The consensus was that he had never had any contact with the insurgency or al Qaeda.” Moreover — and as I explained in my profiling of the four men prior to their release and afterwards — none of the four constituted any kind of a threat. As Dobbins put it eloquently and powerfully, “I can say with confidence we have captured, detained and released thousands of people who have done worse things than these four.”

This was acknowledged in discussions between the Taliban and the US in 2012 regarding a proposed prisoner swap for captured US soldier Bowe Bergdahl. As Reuters described it, “Taliban negotiators said they didn’t want the four men because the four weren’t senior Taliban members.” As Reuters also noted, “Afterwards, State Department officials began referring to them as the ‘JV four’ or ‘Junior Varsity four,’ for their seeming lack of importance to Taliban fighters.”

In summer 2013, the four Afghans were added to a list of prisoners prioritized for release, but DoD officials “resisted.” Reuters reported that, at a meeting in the Pentagon, an unnamed “mid-level Defense Department official” said that transferring the four “might be the president’s priority, but it’s not the Pentagon’s priority or the priority of the people in this building.”

Supported by the White House, however, the State Department continued making plans for the men’s release. By spring 2014, they “were about to be sent home,” but then Gen. Joseph Dunford, who, at the time, was the commander of US forces in Afghanistan, “sent a memo to the State Department warning that the release of the four detainees would endanger his troops in Afghanistan.”

With an incompetence that is all too frequent when it comes to Guantánamo, it was not until the memo reached the State Department that Gen. Dunford’s mistake was recognized. State Department officials “realized he was citing intelligence about a different group of Afghans who were more senior Taliban” — the men eventually swapped for Bergdahl in May 2014. They “pointed out the error, but it was too late. The transfer was halted.”

David Sedney, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia from 2009 to 2013, told Reuters “there was broad resistance within the Pentagon to releasing the four Afghans because between 30 and 50 percent of the roughly 200 Afghan detainees repatriated by the Bush administration had rejoined the fight.” By way of explanation, Sedney added, “The government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai often freed detainees as soon as they returned home.” These figures, however, are unsubstantiated, and, I believe, are quite seriously exaggerated. In addition, President Karzai often released men because there was clearly no case against them, and, had they been held at Bagram instead of Guantánamo, where largely random Afghans were only sent until November 2003, they would have been released many years before.

Finally, on December 20, 2014, the four were flown back to Afghanistan, “nearly five years after they were cleared for release,” as Reuters put it, adding, “Since then, none have returned to the fight, according to US intelligence officials.”

Reuters sought interviews with the men, but Khi Ali Gul “declined a request for an interview,” However, Mohammed Zahir, who is now in his early 60s and was “one of the three Afghans considered low-level Taliban,” according to the report, “works as a guard at a school in Kabul,” and he agreed to speak. He told Reuters that “the primary evidence against him — Taliban documents found in his home — were from his work as an administrator in the Intelligence Ministry when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan.”

He added a poignant anecdote, explaining that, when US soldiers flew home with him, one “spoke with him briefly before handing him over to Afghan officials,” as Reuters put it. In Zahir’s words: “The American soldier tapped on my shoulder and said, ‘I am sorry.’ I don’t know why they kept me there for 13 long years without proving my guilt or crime.”

Delays in the release of five men to Kazakhstan

Reuters’ report also explained how “Pentagon obstacles delayed and nearly derailed other transfers.” In early 2014, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev “offered to take as many as eight Guantánamo detainees.” As Reuters described it, “eager for a counterweight to an increasingly assertive Russia,” he “hoped to strengthen his relationship with Washington.”

Kazakh officials then “asked to send a delegation to Guantánamo for three days to videotape interviews with prisoners before deciding which ones to accept,” a perfectly reasonable request. As was also noted, Kazakh psychologists and intelligence experts “wanted to study the interviews for signs of deception.”

However, according to “multiple current and former administration officials,” Pentagon officials “forbade the delegation to videotape the interviews, nixed plans for a multi-day visit, ordered detainee interviews shortened, and put new restrictive classifications on documents” requested by the Kazakh authorities.

Senior commanders in Joint Task Force Guantánamo, which runs the prison, said the visiting officials “would be allowed one hour with each prisoner and one day at the detention centre.” Reuters noted that “[a]llowing taped interviews had been common practice with foreign delegations,” but with the Kazakh delegation Tthe Pentagon “banned them on the grounds that the practice would violate the Geneva Conventions’ prohibition on using prisoners of war for ‘public curiosity,’” which was not only obstructive, but also both pompous and hypocritical, considering the extent to which the prisoners’ rights have generally been ignored over the last 14 years.

Reuters added that, after “two weeks of failed talks,” the Kazakh authorities “said they were canceling the visit and wouldn’t take any detainees,” at which point an “alarmed White House intervened, ordering the Pentagon to compromise,” as officials described it.

The compromise allowed the delegation “two hours with each detainee,” and, in addition, they “would be allowed to stay one night at Guantánamo.” They “would not be allowed to bring recording equipment with them,” but the military “agreed to videotape the interviews and provide [them] with copies of the tapes.”

The visit went ahead, but  six weeks later the Kazakh authorities hadn’t received the videos. An official said, “They were calling us every couple of days, saying, ‘Where are the videos?’”

Again, the White House intervened, ordering the Pentagon to hand over the videos, but although the Pentagon complied, and sent the videos to the State Department, they had been classified “Secret/ NOFORN,” meaning that it was “illegal to share the material with a foreign country.” Obama’s officials complained again, and the videos were then reclassified. However, when the Kazakh authorities received them, they rang to complain. “The video,” as Reuters put it, “had been processed to look as if it had been shot through dimpled glass,” and because they “wanted to scrutinize detainees’ body language and facial expressions,” it was “useless.”

White House officials then intervened for a third time to demand a compromise, and finally, last December, almost a year after the process of transferring the men out of Guantánamo began, the five men were flown to Kazakhstan.

Other delays — and obstruction in the release of Shaker Aamer

Reuters also explained how, this fall, a foreign government “was invited to Guantánamo to interview eight detainees for possible transfer, ” noting, as described above, that this is “a process that can take several days.” However, according to Obama administration officials, General Kelly “instituted a new policy, suddenly banning the delegation from spending the night” at the prison. As a result, the delegation, from an unidentified country, “was forced to commute 90 minutes by plane each morning and afternoon from Miami, adding tens of thousands of dollars in government plane bills to US taxpayers.”

More disturbing, however, is the blunt conclusion to this anecdote, like the one about Tariq Ba Odah at the start of this article. “In December,” Reuters wrote, “the country decided to take no detainees.”

It was also noted that, during a visit in the fall by another foreign delegation, “Kelly’s command further cut interview times with detainees, to as little as 45 minutes each, making it harder for foreign officials to assess potential transfers.”

The final accounts concern Shaker Aamer, for whose release I have spent many years campaigning, including, from November 2014, through the We Stand With Shaker campaign that I established with the activist Joanne MacInnes, which used a giant inflatable figure of Shaker — and extensive support from celebrities and MPs — to raise awareness of, and outrage about his continued imprisonment, despite the face that he was approved for release in 2007 and 2009. He was finally freed on October 30 last year.

After noting that, in private meetings, “some Pentagon officials have been dismissive of Obama’s policy” — of releasing prisoners and moving towards closing the prison — Reuters reported that, in January last year, after the president “publicly pledged” to “respond to a five-year-old British request for the repatriation” of  Shaker Aamer, “a senior Pentagon official mocked that vow at an interagency meeting on transfers.”

According to an administration official who was present at the meeting, the Pentagon official said, “We will prioritize him — right at the back of the line where he belongs,” to which a senior National Security Council official replied, “That’s not what the president meant.”

For many years, I have explained that one of the many grave injustices of Guantánamo is that, because the release of any prisoner is a political process, it is far too easy to continue holding anyone perceived as troublesome, like Shaker Aamer, who speaks with extraordinary eloquence about the torture and injustice of the “war on terror,” by shunting them to the back of the queue of prisoners approved for release.

I didn’t expect to have my thoughts so perfectly echoed by a senior Pentagon official, but in proving me right, this official has certainly confirmed that justice has no place in Guantánamo, where, instead, those held are political prisoners, or, as Shaker himself describes them, hostages.

Note: See here for a discussion of Reuters’ report, with Charles Levinson and Omar Farah, on Democracy Now! and also check out this New York Times editorial, in which the editors note, “Pentagon officials can do a lot to thwart releases during Mr. Obama’s last year in office. He can make that less likely by empowering a senior official to set clear goals and deadlines, and order defense officials to meet them.” As Tom Wilner and I said in 2013, appointing someone to oversee the closure of Guantánamo in the White House would be the most constructive way for the president to try to fulfill his as yet unfulfilled seven year promise to close the prison.

The Price Of Oil, China And Stock Market Herding – Analysis

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he world economy at the start of 2016 is a genuinely confusing place, with stock markets plummeting. This column discusses the mainstream narratives behind this – China and the oil price dip – and finds them wanting. The economic linkages seem too weak to justify the gyrations. Instead, they may be the result of herding or a delayed reaction to the global economy’s lower-for-long growth prospects.

By Olivier Blanchard*

The stock market movements of the last two weeks are puzzling.

Take the China explanation. A collapse of growth in China would indeed be a world-changing event. But there is just no evidence of such a collapse. At most, there is suggestive evidence of a mild slowdown, and even that is far from certain.

The mechanical effects of such a mild decrease on the US economy should – by all accounts, and all the models we have – be limited. Trade channels are limited (US exports to China represent less than 2% of GDP), and so are financial linkages. The main effect of a slowdown in China would be through lower commodity prices, which should help rather than hurt the US.

Take the oil price explanation. It is even more puzzling. Traditionally, it was taken for granted that a decrease in the price of oil was good news for oil-importing countries such as the US. Consumers, with more money to spend, would increase consumption and increase output. Energy-using firms, with lower cost of production, would increase investment. We learned in the last year that, in the short run, the adverse effect on investment of energy-producing firms could come quickly and temporarily slow down the effect, but this surely does not undo the general conclusion. Yet the headlines are now about low oil prices leading to low stock prices. I can think of two potential explanations, neither of them convincing.

  • First, that very low prices lead to such serious problems for oil producers that this will end up affecting the US and dominating the scene.

I have no doubt that some countries and some companies will indeed be in serious trouble; indeed, some already are. I can also think of ways in which low oil prices also change the geopolitics of the Middle East, with uncertain effects on oil prices. I find it difficult to think that these will dominate the direct real income effects for US consumers.

  • Second, that the low prices reflect a yet unmeasured decrease in world growth – a decrease much larger than is apparent in other hard data – and that the price of oil, like the celebrated canary in the coal mine, is telling us something about the state of the world economy that other data do not.

There is no historical evidence that the price of oil plays such a role. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that, indeed, the low price told us that China is really slowing down. (The fact that non-oil commodity prices, for which China plays a bigger role than for oil, have decreased much less than oil does not support this interpretation.) Then, we would be back to the previous conundrum. It is hard to see how this could have such an effect on the US economy, and in turn on the US stock market. Another variation on the theme, which has been raised in some columns, is that the low oil price reflects a slowdown in the US far beyond what the other current data are telling us. There is zero evidence that this is the case.

Alternatives

Maybe we should not believe the market commentaries. Maybe it was neither oil nor China. Maybe what we are seeing is a delayed reaction to the slowdown in the world economy, a slowdown that has now gone on for a few years. While there has been no significant news in the last two weeks, maybe markets are only realising that growth in emerging markets will be lower for a long time, that growth in advanced economies will be unexciting. Maybe…

I think the explanation is largely elsewhere.

  • I believe that to a large extent, herding is at play.

If other investors sell, it must be because they know something you do not know. Thus, you should sell, and you do, and so down go stock prices.

Why now? Perhaps because we have entered a period of higher uncertainty. The world economy, at the start of 2016, is a genuinely confusing place. Political uncertainty at home and abroad, geopolitical uncertainty, are both high. The Fed has entered a new regime. The ability of the Chinese government to control its economy is in question. In that environment, in the stock market just as in the Presidential election campaign, it is easier for the bears to win the argument, for stock markets to fall, and, on the political front, for fear mongers to gain popularity.

So how much should we worry?

This is where economics stops giving an answer. Or, more specifically, where it gives the dreaded two-handed answer.

  • If it becomes clear within a few days or a few weeks that fundamentals are in fact not so bad, stock prices will recover, just as they did last summer, and this will be seen as a hiccup.
  • If, however, the stock market slump lasts longer or gets worse, it can become self-fulfilling.

Low stock prices lasting for long lead to lower consumption, lower demand, and, potentially, to a recession. The ability of the Fed, fresh out of the zero lower bound, to counteract a slowdown in demand remains limited. One has to hope for the first scenario, but worry about the second.

About the author:
* Olivier Blanchard
, Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute; Robert Solow Professor of Economics Emeritus, MIT

Editor’s Note: This was first posted on the Peterson Institute for International Economics’ RealTime Economic Issues Watch on 17 January 2016.

Defined By Nakba And Exile: Complex Reality Of ‘Home’ For Palestinians – OpEd

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When ISIS militias swept into Mosel, Iraq, in June 2014, Ibrahim Mahmoud plotted his flight, along with his whole family, which included 11 children. Once upon a time, Ibrahim was himself a child escaping another violent campaign carried out by equally angry militias.

In his life-time, Ibrahim became a refugee twice, once when he was nine-years-old living in Haifa, Palestine, and yet again and more recently, in Mosel.

Just weeks before Israel declared its independence in 1948, Ibrahim lost his homeland, and fled Haifa, along with tens of thousands of Palestinian Muslims and Christians, after Israeli militias conquered the city in a military operation they called Bi’ur Hametz, or Passover Cleaning.

Over 750,000 Palestinians were expelled from or fled the horrors of the militias-instigated war, and those who are still alive along with their descendants, number over five million refugees.

Between 1948 and 2014, life was anything but kind to Ibrahim and his family. At first, they sold falafel, and his children left school to join the work force at a young age. They all had cards that listed them as ‘Palestinian refugees’, and to date know of no other identity.

When the Americans invaded Iraq in 2003, they granted their soldiers and the Shia-militias a free hand in that Arab country. The once relatively thriving and peaceful Palestinian community of refugees in Iraq was shattered. Now, according to the UN Refugee’s Agency,no more than 3,000 Palestinian refugees are still living in Iraq, many of them in refugee camps.

Ibrahim has finally managed to escape Mosel, and now lives in a dirty and crowded refugee camp within Kurdish-controlled territories in the north. Considering his old age and faltering health, his story could possibly, and most likely end there, but certainly not that of his children and grandchildren.

Ibrahim’s tragedy is not unique within the overall Middle East refugee crisis. Nonetheless, if seen within its painfully protracted historical context, Palestinian exile is almost unprecedented in its complexity and duration. Few other refugee populations had struggled with an exile which defined them, one generation after the other, as Palestinians have.

To offer a new perspective on this issue, about a year ago, I led a group of Palestinian researchers with the aim of offering a unique and modern study of Palestinian exile, wherein the 1948 Nakba (or Catastrophe) was examined within a larger context of space and time, not only in Palestine itself, but throughout the region, and the world as well. The stories borne out of this research will appear in a book that is tentatively entitled: Exiled.

Since the first refugee was expelled from his land in 1948, international aid workers, politicians, journalists, and eventually, historians, examined the Palestinian experience seemingly from all angles.

Exile was then first seen as a political crisis to which the only solution was the return of refugees, as instructed in United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 194.

When that possibility grew dim, other resolutions followed, all expressing the political contexts of each era: in 1950, ‘74, ‘82, ‘83, etc. (An article by Ben Zakkai in Mondoweiss, entitled: “Notes on international law and the right of return” is most insightful in this regard.)

Regardless of the nature of the discussion pertaining to Palestinian refugees – be it legal, political or moral – the refugees themselves were rarely consulted, except as subjects ofselective and sometimes dehumanizing poll questions, which draw their conclusions from refuges voting either “Yes” or “No”, or even neither.

Many conclusions were drawn from various polls that were often commissioned to reach political conclusions, and each time such results are published, academic, media and political storms often ensue. For Israel, the key concern is for the Palestinians to simply disconnect from their historic homeland. In contrast, for refugee advocates the struggle has always been to demonstrate that the refugees’ desire to return remains as strong today as it was nearly 68 years ago.

But between Israeli laws aimed at punishing Palestinians for commemorating their Nakba, and efforts to keep the Right of Return central to the debate, an actual disconnect happened between the likes of Ibrahim Mahmoud of Haifa/Mosel, along with millions like him and the rest of us. However, this disconnect was not in keeping with Israeli hopes; instead it was based on a very real, human perspective

For Ibrahim, as is the case for Palestinian refugees in Syrian, Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine itself, and all over the world, the matter of exile is regarded from neither a political nor a legal perspective. It is an everyday reality that has left numerous scars and manifestations on the refugee’s identities as people, their perception of themselves, of their surroundings, of ‘home’, their internalization of the past, their understanding of the present and their aspirations for their futures.

After examining profiles, reviewing hundreds of answered questionnaires and conducting thorough interviews with many refugees, it became clear to us that in the minds of all Palestinians, the Nakba is not a separate question to be discussed and resolved through political concessions or pressures. Nor was it a legal question either, one so convoluted that it needed to be assigned to the ‘final status negotiations’ between Israel and the PLO – negotiations which never happened anyway.

Even Palestinians who seem unlikely to exercise their right of return consider their lives within the context of the Nakba and exile as an essential one.

Our study, Exiled, which will be presented in a narrative, non-academic format centers on the assumption that the question of identity can better be examined through the accumulation of personal narratives which could eventually help us isolate collective common denominators, so that we can offer answers to such question as: “What are the group identifiers of Palestinians in the modern era?” and “How strong is the common Palestinian identity in an age of geographic, political and ideological splits, regional turmoil and divisive military occupation?”

One of our findings so far is that Palestinians, including those who had relatively stable lives and successful careers in exile, are unified by a common tragedy, and that neither Muslims nor Christians, despite their unique narratives and claim to identity, are in fact much different in terms of that collective self-perception. The Nakba and exile seem to hover above Palestinians as the most common foundation for the modern Palestinian narrative.

According to this narrative, the Nakba was not an historical event that existed sometime between 1947 and ‘48, and ended with UNGA Resolution 194, which is yet to be implemented.

In fact, it is an ongoing story, a journey that neither ended at a psychological nor practical levels. Those who were expelled from Safad in 1948, for example, then fled Jordan in 1970, then Lebanon in 1982 and finally Yarmouk in 2012, are testament to the reality that, unlike common wisdom, exile for Palestinians is not specific in time or space, but a cyclical process that is experienced by every single Palestinian, even those who would declare that they have no intentions of returning to Palestine.

In other words, the study of Palestinian exile, and the collective aspiration of the Palestinian people when it comes to their right of return is far more complex than a simple question that can be addressed based on a “Yes” or “No’ answer. Nor is it a matter that is open for political negotiations.

It is far more encompassing and is best articulated by the refugees themselves; without it Ibrahim Mahmoud, his children and all of his descendants will always be exiled, always refugee.

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