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Pursuit Of Arctic Supremacy: Hotspot For Another Larger Conflict – OpEd

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With the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic region, the long-isolated region is becoming a more accessible zone for commercial fishing, fresh water, minerals, coal, iron, copper, oil, gas, and shipping. Thus, the region is increasingly catching the world powers’ attention.

Arctic states – Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Russia, Norway and the U.S. – are in rush to exploit all these opportunities from the region, which is believed to hold huge oil and natural gas resources. With such lust for resources, there is the likelihood that the slow militarization, which has already been initiated by the stake-holding states, will be intensified, jeopardizing the peace and stability of the region and the globe.

Disputes

The Arctic region is located around the North Pole and surrounded by landmasses of the aforementioned five countries. Since the Arctic region was “inaccessible” until the end of 20th century because of the layers of thick ice, there were less territorial disputes until the beginning of this (21st) century. However, ice are melting rapidly in the Arctic region because of the global warming, clearing this ice-covered region from ice.

The ice of the region is already reduced by as much as 50% from 1950s. The region is warming faster than other areas across the globe. Such rapid melting of ice is making the region a more “accessible” zone. The melting of the sea ice has been opening up trade routes (during the summers) between Asia and Europe through the Arctic Ocean; the same region where such trades routes were unimaginable even couple of decades ago. In 2007, the Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans opened for the first time in memory.

The constant change in the climate and the increasing accessibility to the region would make the extraction of oil and gas from the region much easier. Estimations from different corners reveal that the region is speculated to hold oil reserves of upto 13% of the global total of undiscovered oil, upto 30% of natural gas, and also other precious metals. Such ‘speculations’ and ‘accessibility’ have given rise to plenty of disputes that have emerged among the aforementioned five countries surrounding the region.

However, among those disputes, the most intensified ones are: (i) regarding boundaries in the Beaufort Sea and the status of the Northwest Passage between the U.S. and Canada, (ii) regarding Hans Island between Canada and Denmark (via Greenland), (iii) regarding the Lomonosov Ridge – a mountain range across the region — among Canada, Denmark and Russia, (iv) and regarding the maritime border from the Bering Sea into the region between the U.S. and Russia.

Therefore, all countries surrounding the region are involved in disputes regarding the ownership and control over different parts of the region. Alongwith these five Arctic countries, China and the UK are also involved in the dispute through their claims over the Svalbard archipelago, which happens to be within the region.

Some of the Arctic countries that are claimant to the disputes have been attempting to come to a solution through the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, a constructive solution, which would bind all the claimants to the Arctic disputes to abide by it, could not be reached through these CLCS and UNCLOS.

This is because, both CLCS and UNCLOS lack the appropriate mandate from countries across the world, including the aforesaid five Arctic countries, to impose “legally binding” decisions or provisions for any maritime disputes. Therefore, the absence of a binding legal regime creates scopes for intense territorial and maritime disputes concerning the control, exploration and exploitation of the energy resources in such a region that is becoming increasingly accessible for such purpose (i.e. purpose of energy exploration and exploitation).

Militarization

In the prevailing scenario, all the Arctic countries, which are involved in the territorial and maritime disputes among themselves, have been moving towards militarizing the region in order to acquire each of their respective objectives in the region. Norwegian foreign secretary Jonas Gahr Stoere already expressed that the presence of “military, navy and coastguard” in the region is necessary.

Canada has planned a deep water “naval facility” at Nanisivik, which lies at the entrance to the disputed Northwest Passage. Canada promised (under former PM Stephen Harper’s administration) to build armed ice-breakers, several patrol ships and several vessels in order to proceed towards gripping the Arctic. In 2011, Canada conducted large-scale “military exercises” in the region.

In August 2015, the U.S. permitted Shell to drill for oil in the Chukchi Sea, which falls within the periphery of Alaskan Arctic. The U.S. “Coast Guard” has already deployed “sophisticated ships, aircrafts and other maritime assets” in the Alaskan Arctic for the duration of Shell’s drilling in the Arctic. Through such presence, the U.S. is not only trying to exploit energy resources of the Arctic region, but also trying to keep its “military presence” deep inside the region.

On the otherside, in 2007, Russian scientists dived to the seabed in the Arctic Ocean and planted a titanium Russian flag (Russia claimed that it was flag of Russia’s ruling party) in order to beef up their claims. Russia has already moved to restore a Soviet-era “military base” and other “military outposts” in the Arctic. In early 2015, Russia exercised Arctic “military patrols” from its Northern Fleet, involving “38,000 servicemen, more than 50 surface ships and submarines and 110 aircrafts”.

More interestingly, Russia is currently planning to jointly explore for oil in Russia’s Arctic fields with China, which is increasingly becoming a strong “military power” besides being an economic giant. Through such move, Russia is trying to make sure that Russia has a “rising military power” like China involved into its stake in the Arctic region so that such cooperation favours Russia at the time of escalation of any “military conflict”.

Wrapping Up

As of yet, the Arctic region is largely untouched by mankind. However, with the ice caps melting, access to the Arctic oil and gas reserves, which is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, will become easier – a prediction that has already sparked a military competition in the region. Such militarization of the region is likely to increase with almost all the countries urging for increasing their military deployments and exercises, and there appears little hope and opportunity for any diplomatic resolution (or political agreement) regarding the disputes. It can be well presumed that without any diplomatic resolution (or political agreement), the current non-hostile debate over the Arctic could turn into a violent confrontation.

It seems our globe does not lack reasons to engage in chaos. The two world wars began as European conflicts, only to turn gradually into world wars. Likewise, if the disputes over the control of the Arctic resources are not resolved quickly, it could turn into a larger military conflict that would not just involve the Arctic countries, but would also drag a larger part of the world into this conflict. And for sure, the start of such war would mean the cold, yet beautiful, Arctic region would become the targets of war machines– destroying the environment and the stability of the region and the globe.

*Bahauddin Foizee, primarily associated with law practice, is an analyst & columnist on international affairs, and specializes on Middle Eastern, Asia-Pacific & European geopolitics.


An Unprecedented Demonstration: A Cry To Eradicate Gender-Based Violence In Peru – Analysis

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By Melanie Landa*

On August 13, Lima became the site of a massive demonstration against the systemic gender-based violence of recent decades. More than 50,000 Peruvians, mainly women, swarmed the streets of the city in an unprecedented march in which they called for justice for the many Peruvian women who are habitual victims of gender violence, or worse, of judicial negligence.[1] With a population of over 30 million, the South American country has been experiencing an alarmingly high rate of gender-based violence. Peru is also one of the countries in the Western Hemisphere joining the cry for the elimination of gender-based violence and is taking part in the regional movement Ni Una Menos (Not One Less).

Violence against women is not uncommon in Peru; for many decades, women have been subject to abuse—even by the one entity supposed to protect them: the state. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Peru witnessed one of the most heinous violations of women’s rights in recent history: under the administration of Alberto Fujimori, thousands of women were forcibly sterilized in an attempt to prevent overpopulation and poverty under a so-called ‘family planning programme’.[2] Sadly, gender-based violence in Peru goes far beyond this single episode of state-sanctioned violations. It represents an epidemic, embedded in the country’s society and culture, which slowly erodes the nation’s integrity. Even worse, the state’s constant judicial ineffectiveness makes it an implicit actor in this ongoing social debacle.

Peruvian Violence: Past, Present…

Today, the descendants of the victims from Fujimori’s era are still trying to bring justice to their ancestors after the former president was absolved of the charges for this atrocity.[3] But these Peruvians are not only fighting past violence, but also gender injustice that persists in their country today. Domestic violence is rampant in Peru, and has been so for many years. Despite previous widespread violence against women, Peruvian lawmakers did not recognize femicide—the deliberate killing of a woman for gender reasons— in their penal code until the end of 2011.[4] [5] Regardless of past events and historical flaws, Peru’s judicial system continues to prove ineffective in matters of women’s defense.

According to Peru’s Ministry of Women and Vulnerable Populations, seven out of 10 women in the country are physically abused by their partners. Documents released by the institution report that in the first five months of this year, 29 attempts of femicide took place in Lima alone, and many more occurred in rural areas outside the capital.[6] Most of these incidents have gone unaddressed by law enforcement.

Recently, Peruvian activists have brought attention to cases of gender-based violence in which perpetrators were given short to nonexistent sentences even after tangible evidence of their aggressions was provided to authorities. It was this recent development that triggered the unprecedented August 13 demonstration. The Ni Una Menos movement recognizes that gender violence followed by judicial ineptitude serves to condone a chauvinistic culture that pervades Peruvian society.

… and Future?

Despite disturbing trends, recent week’s events represent an important change in the tide of gender violence movements. The demonstration in Lima was of a magnitude never seen before, and certain participants caught the attention of local and international media. Most significantly, newly inaugurated President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski joined the demonstration and declared his administration’s commitment to eliminating gender-based violence: “what we don’t want in Peru is violence against anyone, but especially against women and children.”[7] Kuczynski went on to contend that the first step to stamp out violence is to encourage its public condemnation; therefore, he called upon women’s institutes to join the collective denouncing of femicide and other gender-based violence. Only with such community activism can Peru overcome the harsh reality faced by women and the nation alike.

Other public officials have commented on the importance of the campaign against gender-based violence in terms of its economic importance. Marcela Huaita, Minister of Women and Vulnerable Populations in Peru, stated that gender-based violence detrimentally affects women’s involvement in Peru’s economy. Huaita explained, during the 2016 Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum for Women and Economy, that companies lose between $1.9 and $2.5 billion USD yearly due to domestic violence against women. Specifically, female employees miss work after the incident because they must cope with the violent episode or must attend judicial hearings regarding past violence.[8] To combat this, new approaches must be implemented to guarantee women’s reinsertion into the economic world and thereby promote economic growth in the country. Huaita recommends that, in order to achieve this, authorities take charge of processing domestic violence cases and punishing the perpetrators. After this, she assures that the next step to ameliorate the situation is to expand housing and other services for victims. Currently, Peru has a total of 46 refugee houses mainly in rural areas, but is in need of many more.[9]

Although the involvement of high-profile politicians, such as Kuczynski and Huaita, will garner the movement important public attention, there is still much to be done. Tangible results must occur in order to make gender-based violence an anachronism in Peru. First of all, the Peruvian penal code must hold perpetrators of such violence accountable, properly enforcing the law and efficiently delivering justice. Furthermore, the state, now led by Kuczynski, must publicly uphold its determination to eradicate gender-based violence and emphasize a zero-tolerance policy against every form of such violence in Peru. One avenue is through public education, in which curricula should emphasize the importance of women’s equality. Lastly, while women’s groups should continue to actively denounce any kind of violence and aggression, men should also be encouraged to further their involvement in the gender equality facet of social development.

Given that the newly installed presidency is already publicly engaged in tackling gender-based violence, as seen in Kuczynski’s presence in last weekend’s demonstrations, a new reality might be en route for Peru. In this moment, the new administration has the opportunity to differentiate itself from past ones by acting on its commitment to eradicate gender-based violence and urgently work for social development and gender equality in Peru.

*Melanie Landa, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

[1] “Tens of Thousands March in Peru Against Gender Violence.” The New York Times. August 13, 2016. Accessed August 15, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/08/13/world/americas/ap-lt-peru-violence-against-women.html?ref=americas.

[2] Collyns, Dan. “Women Vow to Fight on in Peru after Alberto Fujimori Absolved over Forced Sterilisations.” The Guardian. 2016. Accessed August 15, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/03/women-vow-to-fight-on-in-peru-after-fujimori-absolved-over-forced-sterilisations.

[3] Ibid

[4] “Femicide in Latin America.” Headquarters. April 4, 2013. Accessed August 15, 2016. http://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2013/4/femicide-in-latin-america.

[5] “Peru Establishes Crime Of Femicide.” Dialogo Americas ::. November 28, 2011. Accessed August 15, 2016. https://dialogo-americas.com/en/articles/peru-establishes-crime-femicide.

[6] Pereira, Diego. “Tres Casos De Agresión Sexual Contra Mujeres Que Nos Dicen Mucho Sobre La Justicia En El Perú.” Peru21. July 20, 2016. Accessed August 15, 2016. http://peru21.pe/actualidad/tres-casos-agresion-sexual-contra-mujeres-que-nos-dicen-mucho-sobre-justicia-peru-2252427.

[7] “Tens of Thousands March in Peru Against Gender Violence.” The New York Times. August 13, 2016. Accessed August 15, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/08/13/world/americas/ap-lt-peru-violence-against-women.html?ref=americas.

[8] Takeuchi, Cesar. “Marcela Huaita: ‘La Violencia Contra La Mujer Es Una Gran Barrera’” Peru21. June 25, 2016. Accessed August 15, 2016. http://peru21.pe/actualidad/marcela-huaita-violencia-gran-barrera-2250343.

[9] Ibid

Bosnia: Kick Boxers, Rappers, Reality Stars Run In Elections

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By Rodolfo Toe

Some unusual candidates, including folk singers and convicted war criminals are running in Bosnia’s local elections, which take place on October 2.

Folk singers, reality show stars, kick boxers, former football players and convicted war criminals will be running alongside more traditional candidates during Bosnia’s local elections, which take place on October 2.

Dzevad Poturak, a kick boxer known as the “BH Machine”, is running for the city council in Ilidza, a municipality west of the capital, Sarajevo, for the Alliance for a Better Future of Bosnia and Herzegovina, SBBBiH.

“This is only one of my many battles … nothing is easy but I have always been responsible and fair and I will continue this way, with the people for a better Ilidza!”, Poturak wrote on his Facebook profile when announcing his candidacy.

Another kick boxer, Denis Stojnic, is running for the Democratic Front, DF, for a post on the council of Sarajevo’s Old Town [Stari Grad] municipality, media reported.

They are not the only celebrities to join a political list for the local elections.

Sarajevo-born rapper Jasmin Fazlic, better known as “Jala Brat”, will run for a seat on the municipal council of Vogosca, a municipality on the outskirts of Sarajevo, for the Party of Democratic Action, SDA.

The 29-year-old is known, among other things, for having co-authored Bosnia’s entry for the 2016 Eurovision contest, but has no experience in politics.

Jala explained his decision to the media, arguing that his popularity as a singer gives him a responsibility to his public.

“I have spent my whole life criticising the system … and now somebody has given me the opportunity to show what I can do,” he told the Sarajevo-based website Klix, stressing that he is not “a clown in the political circus”.

Other unusual candidates include Tarik Mulaomerovic, who became popular after taking part in the regional talent show “X Factor Adria” in 2015 and who will run for the City Council of Stari Grad for the DF ; two former players of the Sarajevo-based football Zeljeznicar club, Bulend Biscevic and Nedo Turkovic; folk singer Mirsad Comaga and actor Almir Kurt, TV N1 reported.

The phenomenon of candidates traditionally unconnected to politics running for office in Bosnia has become routine in recent elections, Sarajevo-based political analyst Ivana Maric told BIRN. She compared the practice to commercials and marketing.

“When somebody is successful, people tend to trust them … it is a practice that benefits the political parties, which can have some famous names on their electoral lists, people that everybody knows,” Maric explained.

She noted that in several cases, as with the Prime Minister of Sarajevo Canton, Elvedin Konakovic, a former basketball player, such candidates can gain important positions.

While some of these candidates meet an ironic response from most voters, others – like Fikret Abdic, running to be mayor of the western town of Velika Kladusa – have angered public opinion.

In 2005 the Croatian Supreme Court jailed Abdic for 15 years for war crimes. After his release in 2012 he announced his decision to run as mayor of Velika Kladusa at the end of June. Bosnian electoral law does not prevent people with war-crime convictions from running in elections.
– See more at: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/kick-boxers-rappers-reality-stars-run-in-bosnian-elections-09-07-2016#sthash.Hfj4dSAZ.dpuf

Armenia Says Recognition Of Karabakh’s Independence ‘Paramount’

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Deputy Speaker of Armenia’s National Assembly Eduard Sharmazanov on Wednesday, September 7 said the recognition of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence is paramount.

Addressing the Argentine lawmakers in Buenos Aires, Sharmazanov briefed them about the current situation on the contact line between Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

“We live in a region that faces a lot of challenges, with Turkey blockading Armenia for already 20 years now and Azerbaijan with its criminal policy threatening the security and stability in the region,” he said.

“Everyone must understand that there is no alternative to Karabakh’s right to self-determination. The people of Artsakh have the same right to self-determination as any other nation in the world. The recognition of Karabakh’s independence is paramount now.”

Further talking to the MPs, the Armenian official expressed hope that active contacts with the Argentinian parliament will bolster the dynamic development of bilateral relations.

At the end of his speech, Sharmazanov invited the members of Armenia-Argentina friendship groups to visit Armenia.

Obama’s Last Sally For A Safer World – Analysis

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By Rakesh Sood

This year, the 71st session of the UN General Assembly will formally open in New York on September 13 and over a fortnight, presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers will take the podium. There is widespread speculation that this being US President Barack Obama’s last plenary, he is considering an address that could have significant implications for US nuclear policy and for the global nuclear disarmament agenda which has now remained frozen for decades.

Since Ben Rhodes, US Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications, announced on June 6, “I can promise you today that President Obama is continuing to review a number of ways he can advance the Prague agenda over the course of the next seven months. Put simply, our work is not finished on these issues,” the White House has maintained a studied silence on the subject despite the debate under way in the arms control community and among US allies, especially those that enjoy the security of its nuclear umbrella.

Mr. Obama’s speech in April 2009 at the Hradcany Square in Prague electrified the world when he announced that “as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act” and pledged “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” He promised that “to put an end to Cold War thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same.” The citation for his Nobel Peace Prize later in 2009 praised his “vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.”

Obama’s nuclear record

Seven years later, President Obama’s nuclear record is a mixed one. The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) issued the following year (the US undertakes an NPR roughly once a decade) referred to the objectives of “reducing the role of US nuclear weapons” in national security strategy while maintaining strategic deterrence and “stability at reduced nuclear force levels.” The Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy that followed in 2013 stated that the US would only consider the use of nuclear of nuclear weapons “in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.” The Defence Department was directed to “strengthen non-nuclear capabilities and reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks.”

Negotiations with Russia led to the New START Treaty coming into force in February 2011 which limits US and Russian nuclear arsenals to 700 deployed ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles), SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles) and heavy bombers and 1550 deployed nuclear warheads. Follow-on negotiations stalled thereafter and the New START will lapse in 2021, unless extended by a five-year period.

Mr. Obama also launched the cycle of Nuclear Security Summits in 2010 to highlight the threats posed by terrorists seeking nuclear materials. This concluded earlier this year with the Washington summit. The nuclear deal with Iran has been praised generally though it has faced criticism from the US’ regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Described as an “executive agreement”, it has not been submitted for approval to the Congress where it would have faced Republican opposition.

One of Mr. Obama’s boldest decisions was to visit Hiroshima earlier this year, becoming the first serving US President to do so, 71 years after the city was destroyed by the first nuclear bomb. Bypassing the debate about whether his speech would be seen as an ‘apology’, he called upon countries that possess nuclear weapons to “have the courage to escape the logic of fear and pursue a world without them.”

Running into resistance

Yet these achievements fall far short of the promises of the Prague speech. The CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) ratification, which Mr. Obama had promised to push through vigorously, continues to languish. The Nuclear Security Summits created the buzz normally associated with summitry but remained content with shared best practices and voluntarily announced measures.

Meaningful negotiations on nuclear issues remain deadlocked. But most important, notwithstanding the careful wording in the 2010 NPR and 2013 Employment Strategy, there has been no significant shift in US nuclear weapons policy. Further, to push through the ratification of the New START treaty, Mr. Obama also authorised a $1 trillion budget over the next three decades for maintaining and improving the US nuclear arsenal under the Stockpile Stewardship Program.

Realising his failure with the CTBT ratification, Mr. Obama is planning to submit a resolution on this issue to the UN Security Council, 20 years after the CTBT was opened for signature. The US, under President Bill Clinton, had pushed the CTBT negotiations but in 1999, the treaty was rejected by the Senate on account of concerns about its impact on the US nuclear arsenal. Given the current mood in the Senate, it is unlikely to budge.

Even though a resolution by the UN Security Council calling on states to uphold the CTBT would be non-binding, such a move has already been criticised by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker “as an affront to the Congress and the American people.” And it is unlikely to persuade China, Iran or Israel to ratify, or for that matter, India, Pakistan and North Korea to sign up!

The idea arousing the maximum interest is therefore a shift away from the current US policy that countenances a ‘first-use’ of nuclear weapons (though under “extreme circumstances”) in response to even a conventional attack, to a ‘no-first-use’ (NFU) of nuclear weapons, implying nuclear retaliation only in response to a nuclear attack. Of the nine countries known to possess nuclear weapons, only China and India maintain an NFU, though in 2003, India qualified its NFU by expanding its right of nuclear retaliation to cover not just nuclear, but also a chemical or biological weapon attack. All others maintain a ‘first-use’ policy. In recent years, there have been suggestions that China’s growing concerns about US conventional superiority might push it to review its NFU policy.

Considering that the US accounts for more than 45 percent of the world’s nuclear arsenal, enjoys overwhelming superiority in conventional capabilities and a significant technological advantage in cyber and space capabilities, less dependence on nuclear weapons is not going to diminish its security. Further, a US lead in this regard will create a push for other nuclear weapon states to follow, generating momentum for a global nuclear restraint regime.

There are two groups of naysayers arguing against a shift. The first is the realist-sceptic who maintains that declarations are mere words and will not be trusted by potential adversaries. In doing so, they overlook the fact that first-use policies are inherently destabilising because of high alert postures and tactical deployments, tempting the adversary into a pre-emptive strike. The second group of naysayers consists of US allies and partners. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation allies such as the UK and France are unenthusiastic because it would generate questions in their own societies about the wisdom of their ‘first-use’ policies. Others like Japan and South Korea feel that an NFU implies a weakening of US commitment to their security. It is instructive to recall that a similar debate had raged in Europe during the 1970s and 1980s. Questioning US commitment to use nuclear weapons from its homeland against a Soviet advance into west Europe thereby risking retaliation, European allies demanded forward-basing, leading to the deployment of intermediate-range Pershing and Cruise missiles in west Europe. A decade later, the same argument was turned on its head to claim that forward-basing diminished US commitment and the Europeans became strong supporters of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty (1987) which eliminated intermediate-range nuclear weapons from Europe!

A moral revolution

The nuclear taboo has held since 1945 and no country wants to see it violated. Since it is not possible to wish away the existing nuclear arsenals, the only way forward is greater nuclear restraint, which is what the NFU does. In a vibrant democracy like the US, a public articulation of an NFU will provide a changed backdrop to its nuclear strategy, posture, deployment and employment guidance. Further, it can permit the US to question the need for tactical nuclear weapons or even vulnerable ICBMs that are maintained on high alert.

Moreover, other nuclear weapon states will find it impossible not to respond. Voluntary declarations, followed by a collective NFU, would become a realisable objective. In 1945, the US shaped the first nuclear age with Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Today, President Obama has the opportunity to shape the 21st century second nuclear age by launching the ‘moral revolution’ that he promised in Hiroshima. It could become his defining legacy.

This article originally appeared in The Hindu and reprinted with permission.

World’s Mind Made Up On US Presidential Race – Analysis

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Pew Research Center survey in 15 nations: Obama is tough act to follow, Clinton is more trusted than Trump.

By Bruce Stokes*

When on November 8 Americans head to the polls to elect the next president of the United States, they effectively select the de facto president of the world. And, history suggests, whoever becomes the next resident of the White House – Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump – he or she will impact America’s image, and thus US influence, around the world.

Of the two principal presidential candidates, Clinton is the better known outside the United States. Having served as US secretary of state from 2009 to early 2013, Clinton enjoys the confidence of many in both Europe and Asia to do the right thing in world affairs, according to a recent survey of 15 nations by the Pew Research Center.

Majorities or pluralities in 12 of 14 European and Asian countries have faith in Clinton, including the Swedes, 83 percent; Germans, 79 percent; Australians, 70 percent; Japanese, 70 percent; and Canadians, 60 percent. On the other hand, views of Clinton among the Chinese are much more divided, with 37 percent saying they have confidence in her, 35 percent saying they do not have confidence and 28 percent with no opinion. And Clinton is still little known in India, where a majority, 56 percent, voices no opinion about her ability to act on world affairs.

Views of real estate magnate Trump are a different story. Less than a quarter of people across all 15 countries surveyed in 2016 express confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to do the right thing regarding international affairs. In fact, overwhelming majorities in most of the societies surveyed have little or no confidence in him. This includes 92 percent of Swedes, 89 percent of Germans, 88 percent of Dutch and 85 percent of both the French and British.

Most Australians at 87 percent as well as Japanese, 82 percent, and Canadians, 80 percent, also lack faith in Trump. People in Asia’s two most populated nations have little knowledge of the Republican candidate. In China, there is a split between those who have no confidence in Trump, 40 percent, and those who do not offer an opinion, 39 percent. In India, 67 percent offer no opinion.

The candidate who heads to the White House in January, whether Trump or Clinton, faces the daunting challenge of comparison with Barack Obama, who is leaving office enjoying widespread public confidence in his conduct of foreign affairs. In Europe, majorities in nine of 10 countries surveyed this year trust the outgoing president’s ability to handle international issues, including 93 percent in Sweden and 91 percent in the Netherlands. Only the Greeks regard Obama unfavorably, with 58 percent expressing little or no confidence in him.

Obama has fewer fans in Asia, but is still popular: 78 percent in Japan, 58 percent in India and 52 percent in China voice faith in Obama’s record on the world stage.

History suggests that foreign confidence in US presidential leadership can be a consequence of the triumph of hope over experience. In 2008 in Europe, in the wake of the Iraq war and other issues that put Washington at loggerheads with other countries, trust in then-President George W. Bush had fallen to 16 percent in the United Kingdom, 14 percent in Germany and 13 percent in France, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In 2009, soon after Obama had been elected, but before he had been tested by events, 93 percent of the Germans expressed confidence in the new US president, and 91 percent of the French and 86 percent of the British agreed.

Americans’ choice can influence foreign judgment of the United States, and in countries surveyed, majorities or pluralities said Obama’s election led them to have a more favorable view of the United States. Again, Western Europe and especially France, 93 percent more favorable, and Germany, 91 percent, stood out in this regard, but also 77 percent of Japanese and Brazilians, 73 percent of Indonesians and 47 percent of Chinese expressed the view that the election had buoyed their view of the United States.

Tough act to follow: A Pew Research Center survey conducted in 15 nations suggests that confidence runs high in US President Barack Obama "to do the right thing regarding world affairs"; Hillary Clinton, former US secretary of State, follows close behind, while doubt lingers about real estate developer Donald Trump (Data: Pew Research Center).

Tough act to follow: A Pew Research Center survey conducted in 15 nations suggests that confidence runs high in US President Barack Obama “to do the right thing regarding world affairs”; Hillary Clinton, former US secretary of State, follows close behind, while doubt lingers about real estate developer Donald Trump (Data: Pew Research Center).

The outcome of the 2004 American election had the opposite effect. A 2005 Pew Research Center survey found that after the reelection of George W. Bush in not one of 15 countries surveyed did a majority or plurality report that Bush’s reelection led them to holding a more favorable view of the United States. In Germany, France and Canada, roughly three in four respondents said the election’s outcome caused them to have a less positive opinion of Uncle Sam. This may reflect waning support for the Iraq war among those nations that had joined the US invasion and growing opposition to the US-led war on terrorism.

On the eve of the 2016 election, majorities in 13 out of 15 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center have positive views of the United States. America receives its highest ratings from the Poles, 74 percent; Italians, 72 percent; Japanese, 72 percent; and Swedes, 69 percent. The survey shows that the US also enjoys support from Indians at 56 percent and Chinese at 50 percent.

Whether international views of the US change in the wake of the upcoming election may depend on whom voters choose and foreigners’ expectations of that incoming president.

In 2009, in 15 of 24 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center, not including the United States, majorities or pluralities assumed that Obama would not act unilaterally and would consider the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions. In 16 of the nations surveyed, public opinion leaned toward the view that Obama would be fair in dealing with the Israelis and the Palestinians. And in 19 nations, majorities or pluralities expected the United States under Obama to take significant measures to control global climate change.

But by 2012, in 14 of the same countries surveyed again, a median of 58 percent said Obama had acted unilaterally, 60 percent said he was not fair in dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian situation and 62 percent suggested that he had failed to take significant steps on climate change.

This reversal in sentiment is a reminder that foreigners can have unrealistic expectations of American presidents. And their disappointment when their expectations are not realized may affect views of both the presidency and the country. Between early 2009, during Obama’s honeymoon period, and 2012, international approval of Obama’s international policies fell significantly in Europe, Muslim countries, Russia, China, Japan and Mexico. In the same period, favorable views of the US declined in Germany, Britain, France, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Mexico.

Without a vote in the US presidential election, foreigners look on the American electoral process with a mixture of hopefulness and anxiety. The process to date has not proved encouraging. Three-quarters of Australians and nearly seven in ten Canadians, among the foreigners who arguably may follow the US election the most closely, have a negative impression of the 2016 US presidential campaign. They know that Americans’ decision will affect their lives in ways they cannot control. They know Trump less well than Clinton and have greater confidence in her than in him. So non-Americans hope for the best, and history suggests they can be disappointed. Both their expectations and likely disappointments will affect the next US president’s ability to lead the world.

*Bruce Stokes is director of global economic attitudes at the Pew Research Center.

The Next Sector To Recover From The Oil Price Crash – Analysis

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By Zainab Calcuttawala

Oilfield services, shipbuilders and other industries that rose with the pre-2014 oil price boom have had it hard. Since barrel rates fell, their previous patrons have become uninterested in doling out major purchase orders, leaving oil and gas equipment manufacturers without revenues.

A recent report by Arkansas Online says the energy industry’s support sector could feel the effects of low oil prices for up to two years after the current bear market recovers.

“When oil gets good again we will be the last to get back to work” because half the fleet available is not currently in use, Vance Breaux Jr., a boat manufacturer from Louisiana, said.

Louisiana’s rig count has shrunk to 35 active sites as of last week – down 40 from the same time last year, according to Baker Hughes latest report on the matter.

Currently, Breaux and his industry compatriots lack diversification in their client profile. Production sites with easy-to-reach oil and gas deposits are running out in Louisiana, but the weak investment climate prevents energy firms from starting new projects, making it difficult for equipment manufacturers to generate revenues.

In other parts of the country, bargain hunters are snagging expensive oil and gas equipment at auctions for a fraction of their original cost.

“Everyone says we’re crazy, but we’re hoping to capitalize on the downstroke,” Shawn Kluver, a buyer in the market for a hydro excavator truck, told USA Today last year.

Kluver flew to Colorado from North Dakota to compete with more than 3,000 bidders for a rock-bottom price on backhoes, bulldozers, trucks and other heavy equipment.

As hundreds of oil and gas rigs shut down across the United States, falling bottom lines force oil and gas majors to abandon future exploration projects and reduce the scope of ongoing ventures, causing thousands of drilling workers to lose their jobs and the equipment they once used to sit idle.

If a company begins liquidating its assets, some of the idle equipment may find itself in the hands of industry resellers, such as the Vancouver-based Ritchie Bros, which claims to be the world’s largest auctioneer of heavy equipment.

The company says it has seen a peak interest in its events this year, driven in large part by contractors looking to repurpose drilling equipment for construction projects.

Oil and gas firms have been hemorrhaging workers and physical assets essential to drilling operations, which means bringing oil and gas companies back into peak production will not happen overnight when prices do recover.

In June, The Wall Street Journal, used data from HIS Energy to estimate that roughly 70 percent of the fracking equipment across the shale industry had been idled due to financial constraints. Also, about 60 percent of U.S. field workers needed to frack shale wells have been handed pink slips since the pricing crisis began two years ago. Many of those workers have moved on to jobs in other industries over the past two years, clearing the job market of experienced hires.

“It’s scary to think what a drag and what a headwind finding experienced labor is going to be this time around,” Roe Patterson, CEO of Basic Energy Services, a Texas-based well completion company, told the WSJ.

Patterson also emphasized that the state of equipment deteriorates due to wear and tear over time, even when its not in use.

“Pop the hood on your car and let it sit for a year,” he suggested. “I guarantee the car won’t be in the same condition.”

As Hordes of heavy drilling equipment exit the energy industry to be repurposed, the woes of oil and gas equipment manufacturers will continue as the industry finds its footing in a recovered market. Once profits from existing drilling projects begin to show in oil and gas companies’ books, new sites will be brought into production, spurring further equipment purchases.

Though the energy equipment industry may see a delayed boom as idled equipment stored in warehouses slowly returns to duty, firms will have to turn to their old sources to replace their now-sold assets. Better late than never.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Sector-To-Recover-From-The-Oil-Price-Crash.html

Is Israel Pushing For A Palestinian Civil War? – OpEd

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Division within Palestinian society has reached unprecedented levels, becoming a major hurdle on the path of any unified strategy to end Israel’s violent occupation or to rally Palestinians behind a single objective.

Newly-appointed Israeli ultra-nationalist, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, understands this too well. His tactic since his ascension to office last May is centered on investing more in these divisions as a way to break down Palestinian society even further.

Lieberman is an ‘extremist’, even if compared with the low standards of the Israeli military. His past legacy was rife with violent and racist declarations. His more recent exploits include taking on the late Mahmoud Darwish, Palestine’s most celebrated poet. He went as far as comparing Darwish’s poetry – which advocates the freedom of his people – to Adolph Hitler’s autobiography, ‘Mein Kampf’.

But, of course, this is not Lieberman’s most outrageous statement.

Lieberman’s past provocations are plenty. Fairly recently, in 2015, he threatened to behead with an axe Palestinian citizens of Israel if they are not fully loyal to the ‘Jewish state’, advocated the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian citizens of Israel, and made a death ultimatum to former Palestinian Prime Minister, Ismail Haniya.

Outrageous statements aside, Lieberman’s latest ploy, however, is the most outlandish yet. Israel’s Defense Minister is planning to color-code Palestinian communities in the Occupied West Bank, dividing them into green and red, where green is ‘good’ and red is ‘bad’; accordingly, the former shall be rewarded for their good behavior, while the latter collectively punished, even if just one member of that community dares to resist the Israeli Occupation Army.

A version of this plan was attempted nearly 40 years ago, but utterly failed. The fact that such appalling thinking is occurring well into the 21st century without being accompanied by international uproar is baffling.

Lieberman’s color-codes will be accompanied by a campaign to resurrect the ‘Village Leagues’, another failed Israeli experiment to impose an ‘alternative’ Palestinian leadership by ‘engaging’ Palestinian ‘notables’, not democratically-elected leaders.

Lieberman’s solution is to manufacture a leadership, which, like the Village Leagues of the 1970s and 80s, will, most certainly, be regarded as collaborators and traitors by the wider Palestinian society.

But what is the ‘Village Leagues’ exactly and will it work this time around?

In October 1978, elected Palestinian mayors, joined by town councilors and various nationalist institutions, began a campaign of mass mobilization under the umbrella of the National Leadership Committee, whose main objective was to challenge the Camp David Treaty – signed between Egypt and Israel – and its political consequences of marginalizing Palestinians.

At the time, the Movement was the most elaborate and united network of Palestinians ever assembled in the Occupied Territories. Israel immediately cracked down on the mayors, union leaders and nationalists of various professional institutions.

The national response was insisting on the unity of Palestinians in Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, among Christians and Muslims, and Palestinians at home and in ‘shattat’, or Diaspora.

The Israeli response was equally firm. Starting July 2, 1980, an assassination campaign against the democratically-elected mayors ensued.

Yet, Camp David and the attempts to eliminate the nationalist leaders in the Occupied Territories, and the increased violence of Jewish extremists in the West Bank inspired mass protests, general strikes and violent confrontations between Palestinian youth and Israeli forces.

The Israeli government moved to dismiss elected West Bank mayors, shortly after it established, in November 1981, a ‘Civilian Administration’ to rule the Occupied Territories directly through its military. The military administration was aimed at sidelining any truly representative Palestinian leadership, and further cementing the Occupation. Once more, Palestinians responded with a general strike and mass mobilization.

Israel has always vied to construct an alternative leadership for Palestinians. These efforts culminated in 1978, when it established the ‘Village Leagues’, giving its members relatively wide powers, including approving or denying developmental projects in the Occupied Territories. They were armed and also provided with Israeli military protection.

But that, too, was doomed to fail as the League members were widely regarded as collaborators by Palestinian communities.

A few years later, Israel recognized the artificial nature of its creation, and that Palestinians could not be mobilized to embrace Israel’s vision of permanent military occupation and superficial autonomy.

In March 1984, the Israeli government decided to dissolve the ‘Village Leagues’.

Not that Lieberman is an astute student of history, but what does he hope to achieve from this stratagem, anyway?

The 1976 municipal elections galvanized Palestinians’ energies to achieve unity; they rallied around common ideas and found a unifying platform in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Now, Palestinian discord is unmistakable. Fatah and Hamas’ protracted fight has fundamentally altered the nationalist discourse on Palestine, turning it into a form of political tribalism.

The West Bank and Gaza are divided, not only geographically but geopolitically as well. Fatah, which is already embattled in more ways than one, is falling into further divisions among supporters of its current aging leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and the shunned, albeit ubiquitous Mohammed Dahlan.

More dangerous than all of this is that Israel’s system of punishment or rewards have effectively turned Palestinians into classes: extremely poor ones, living in Gaza and Area C in the West Bank, and relatively prosperous ones, most of them affiliated with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.

From Lieberman’s viewpoint, the opportunity must be ripe for refining and re-imposing the ‘Village Leagues’. Whether it works in its original form or fails, it makes no difference, since the idea is to engender further division amongst Palestinians, sow social chaos, political conflict and, perhaps, duplicate Gaza’s brief civil war in the summer of 2007.

The international community should totally reject such archaic plans and destructive thinking and force Israel to adhere to international law, human rights and respect the democratic choices of the Palestinian people.

Those powers that have imposed themselves as ‘peace brokers’ and guardians of international law must understand that Israel is well-qualified to start fires, but almost never capable of putting them down. And Lieberman, of all people – the Russian club bouncer-turned politician-turned Defense Minister – must not be given free rein to color-code Palestinian communities, reward and punish as he pleases.

A quick look back at history tells us that Lieberman’s tactics will fail; the question is, however, at what cost?


Azerbaijan: Economy Riding In The Breakdown Lane

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Just a few months ago, authorities in Azerbaijan spent tens of millions of dollars on hosting a Grand Prix auto race, which critics derided as a vanity project that satisfied the leadership’s craving for international attention, but did not produce any tangible benefits for the general population. Now, there are several indicators that government finances are tight and Azerbaijan’s economy could spin out.

The clearest sign of Azerbaijan’s fiscal vulnerability is the late-August move by commercial banks to suspend the sale of foreign currency, specifically US dollars. In the weeks leading up to the suspension, demand for dollars spiked, thus causing the Azerbaijani currency, the manat, to slide.

The manat’s summer woes fuelled fears that the government would carry out the third devaluation of the national currency since the winter of 2015. In September 2014, the manat traded at 0.78 to the US dollar. The rate on September 7, 2016, was 1.66 per dollar. The Central Bank in late August, prior to the suspension of foreign currency sales, characterized devaluation fears as “groundless.”

Beyond the currency question, there is growing concern about the state of government finances. Over the past few years, President Ilham Aliyev’s administration has gained a reputation for being among the most repressive leaderships in Eurasia. Accordingly, it maintains tight control over the flow of information, which makes it difficult to determine the full extent of the financial crisis confronting the government.

Yet all visible signs indicate that the state budget is under tremendous strain. According to Fitch Ratings, the government has halted most spending on infrastructure and other capital projects. Authorities are also hastily assembling a privatization program in the hopes of bringing in additional revenue.

Officials have scheduled three privatization auctions this month (September 14, 20, 26) for stakes in 191 properties. No estimate has been released for the total value of these shares. In January, Finance Minister Samir Sharifov stated, though, that the government planned to bring in about 100 million manats (over $60.1 million) from the sales, news agencies reported.

The State Committee on Property Issues has launched a portal to provide information about the properties up for sale. Officials also aim to hold online auctions in the hope that doing so will facilitate foreign investors’ participation.

But the portal is difficult to navigate and it appears to raise more questions about the process than it answers. The most significant obstacle for would-be foreign investors is the fact that that portal only has Azeri-language information about the offered properties. In addition, financial information for the listed properties appears to be denominated in British pounds, not US dollars or Euros, thus creating a conversion burden for many potential foreign investors.

The source of Azerbaijan’s economic challenges is the drastic decline in energy prices, which have led to a sharp decline over the past two years in revenue generated by oil and natural gas exports. The Aliyev administration’s chief response so far to the mounting economic troubles was a decree in July to form a Financial Stability Council. But in its almost two months of operation, the council has not made noticeable progress in promoting macroeconomic stability.

In the absence of government spending, the country’s non-energy-related economic sectors contracted at a rate of 5.4 percent during the first half of 2016, compared with the same period the previous year. The inflation rate, meanwhile, is estimated at 12 percent for this year.

It is not just the government that is struggling financially. Businesses and individuals are having increasing trouble meeting their obligations. According to the State Statistics Committee, the growth rate for non-performing loans stood at 15 percent rate during the first six months of 2016, totaling 1.53 billion manats, a figure approaching $1 billion at the current exchange rate. According to some reports, the current volume of non-performing loans exceeds one-third of bank capital in Azerbaijan.

While businesses and individuals may be walking a financial tightrope without a net, the government has considerable reserve funds with which it can use to plug financial gaps, funds accumulated during the bygone era when energy exports reaped windfall profits. In addition to Central Bank reserves, authorities can also draw on the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ).

The Central Bank said its foreign exchange reserves stood at $4.19 billion as of September 1, a modest increase from the 2016 low-point of $4.02 billion the bank reported in February. However, the 2016 monthly totals are markedly less than the Bank’s reserves just a few years ago. In July of 2014, the reserves hit its all-time high of $15.19 billion. The Bank squandered much of its exchange cushion in an ill-fated attempt to prop up the manat.

The government’s fiscal troubles appears to have been a factor in draining the Oil Fund, which saw its overall value drop from $37.1 billion in 2014 to $33.6 billion at the end of 2015. SOFAZ reported $35.11 billion in assets at the end of the first half of 2016.

Ultimately, the government will be facing tough choices over the coming year. Prices for oil and natural gas, the export of which is the Azerbaijani government’s critical source of revenue, are expected to remain flat. Given that Azerbaijan is not projected to significantly raise its oil and gas production volumes, government revenue should continue to fall short of initial projections.

The best path out of the fiscal pit the country now finds itself in would be to liberalize the economy, and promote diversification with the aim of weaning it from its dependence on energy exports. But liberalization would require the Aliyev administration to make dramatic changes in its authoritarian ways, and it has yet to send any signals it is willing to do so.

Netanyahu, Abbas Could Meet In Moscow – Report

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The Russian foreign ministry on Thursday said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and PA President Mahmoud Abbas had agreed “in principle” to meet in Moscow.

According to Russian media reports, the two leaders were willing to sit down for a face-to-face meeting in a bid to revive peace talks.

“Russian foreign ministry confirms willingness to host Netanyahu-Abbas meeting in Moscow, preparations continue,” the Interfax news agency reported. “Israeli, Palestinian leaders agree in principle to meet in Moscow.”

There was no immediate response from the Prime Minister’s Office in Israel or officials in the PA.

The report came days after efforts to broker a meeting between the two became bogged down in mutual accusations that the other side was unwilling to sit down in Moscow.

The two leaders have not met in person since 2010, and peace efforts have continued to falter. Abbas has demanded Israel release Palestinians prisoners and freeze settlement building before meeting, while Netanyahu has said he is willing to meet without preconditions.

The efforts became further complicated Wednesday following an Israeli report on Soviet documents suggesting Abbas was a KGB spy in Damascus in the 1980s, during the time that Mikhail Bogdanov, today Vladimir Putin’s envoy to the Middle East, was stationed there.

The PA leader’s top political adviser said Wednesday Abbas had forgone his long-held preconditions and was planning in earnest to meet Netanyahu in Moscow this Friday, but the summit was spiked by Israel.

“There were no preconditions. That was very clear. When President [Vladimir] Putin invited the two sides, he said, ‘No preconditions.’ President Abbas approved that, and he said so very clearly yesterday when he was in Warsaw,” Majdi al-Khalidi told The Times of Israel in a phone interview.

While in Poland on Tuesday, Abbas declared he was willing to meet Netanyahu in Moscow, though he did not explicitly mention the preconditions in his statement.

However, the Palestinian leader added, Netanyahu’s representative sought to delay the Moscow meeting, which would have taken place September 9, to a later date.

An Interfax report Monday claiming the two had agreed to meet was initially denied by Palestinian officials, who indicated the preconditions were still in place.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu referred to confusion over the Palestinian stance during a press conference alongside Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in The Hague.

If the Palestinians had forgone their preconditions to the Moscow meeting, the Israeli prime minister seemed unaware.

“Is Abbas prepared to meet without preconditions? We hear contradictory versions on that,” said Netanyahu.

“Just yesterday Palestinian spokespeople clarified that they are prepared to meet but that they have conditions — the release of prisoners and they also want to know beforehand what will be the end result of the talks, and such like,” Netanyahu said.

Khalidi, Abbas’s adviser, said he didn’t know why the Israeli prime minister believed there were preconditions to the Moscow meeting.

“No one said there were preconditions. Many people in Israel and Palestine speak in general. But after what the president said, why do we have to listen to people from this side or that side. We have only one agency that is official, Wafa. We have one official spokesperson, Nabil Abu Rudeineh,” Khalidi said.

The Prime Minister’s Office voiced skepticism of the statements.

“If the Palestinian leadership can say with one voice that they are willing to meet without preconditions, then Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet President Abbas,” Netanyahu’s spokesperson David Keyes told The Times of Israel Wednesday.

On Tuesday night, Abu Rudeineh, the official Abbas spokesperson, said Netanyahu “had once again shown a lack of seriousness in searching for a just peace based on the two-state solution.”

The idea of direct talks in Moscow was first floated by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in August, when he said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was willing to play host.

Peace efforts have been at a standstill since a US-led initiative collapsed in April 2014.

The last substantial public meeting between Abbas and Netanyahu is thought to have been held in 2010, at the tail end of a 10-month settlement building moratorium, though there have been unconfirmed reports of secret meetings since then.

By Dov Lieber, original article

Philippine President Duterte Regrets Obama Rant

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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte expressed regret over explicit comments made about President Barack Obama that led to the cancellation of a scheduled meeting in Laos.

Duterte, who called Obama a “son of a bitch,” said in a statement that he regretted “it came across as a personal attack on the U.S. president.”

“We look forward to ironing out differences arising out of national priorities and perceptions,” read Duterte’s statement.

The two leaders were supposed to meet on Sept. 6 on the sidelines of an international summit in Laos.

The U.S. government gave no explanation for the cancellation of the bilateral meeting.

Duterte made his foul-mouthed comments on Sept. 5 in response to a reporter’s question on the possibility that Obama will raise the issue of drug-related killings.

“I am a president of a sovereign state and we have long ceased to be a colony… You must be respectful. Do not just throw questions. Son of a bitch, I will swear at you in that forum,” he said.

Duterte has earlier cursed the pope and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

9/11’s Legacies: Fewer Civil Liberties And Bigger Banks – OpEd

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September 11, 2016, marks the fifteenth anniversary of a calamity that shook America to its core.

I remember vividly to this day being riveted by the constant video replays of the two Boeing 767s plowing into the World Trade Center, people leaping from office windows to their deaths, the collapses of the twin towers, and the dazed look of survivors on the streets of Manhattan. I have since read many stories of heroism on that day—the bravery of the first responders and of ordinary citizens in the twin towers themselves, of passengers on United Flight 93 in the skies over Pennsylvania, and of people navigating the wreckage at the Pentagon—and I’ve wondered whether or not I could have mustered such courage.

9/11 launched a perpetual “war on terror” overseas, but it also triggered attacks on civil liberties here at home. Infringements of the privacy rights of ordinary Americans are particularly noteworthy.

Thanks to Edward Snowden, to reports by Glenn Greenwald in The Guardian, to “WikiLeaks” and others (see, for example, Anthony Gregory’s recent Independent Institute book, American Surveillance: Intelligence, Privacy, and the Fourth Amendment), we now know that the surveillance state is snooping into our telephone records, email communications, and social media posts with a fine-toothed comb. “Probable cause” apparently no longer is necessary for law enforcement officials to collect and examine even our most personal or professional activities. (I once said “Israeli war plans” in a telephone call to a co-author and former student of mine then working as a program officer at the National Science Foundation; my words were followed immediately by an audible click, which my friend informed me signaled that our conversation was being recorded.)

I am not an expert on national security or privacy issues, although I’ve read the U.S. Constitution many times. I am, however, qualified to weigh in on many issues of public policy. As an academic economist who specializes in the workings (and failures) of government institutions, I have some idea of how and why well-meaning public policies often go awry.

With Burak Dolar, another former doctoral student of mine, I have published two journal articles [here and here] on the economic consequences of the USA PATRIOT Act, a bill Congress passed on the heels of 9/11 almost by unanimous vote. We looked specifically at that law’s anti–money laundering provisions, which require financial institutions to adopt policies and procedures to deter transfers of money that might aid terrorists. (Those measures reinforced existing regulations created to make it more difficult for banks to launder the proceeds of illicit drug trafficking.)

The PATRIOT Act required financial institutions to verify the identities of their customers, to adopt procedures to identify suspicious transactions, and to designate officers responsible for compliance. Those and other regulations imposed by the post-9/11 law were, of course, “one size fits all.” As one might have predicted, the costs of complying with them burdened smaller firms more than their bigger rivals, who could spread the costs over larger volumes of transactions. Professor Dolar and I estimate that, as a result of this differentially heavy compliance burden, about 3,000 small U.S. banks and thrift institutions disappeared thereafter, either through bankruptcy or acquisition by larger competitors.

So, a much more concentrated financial sector is one effect of 9/11. This increase in market concentration means that many more U.S. financial institutions are now, for all practical purposes, considered “too big to fail” (even though, with the passage of Dodd-Frank, the authorities claim that they have abandoned this doctrine). Although the regulatory reach of our nation’s central bank, the Federal Reserve System, is much broader and more powerful, these developments do not necessarily improve the safety and soundness of the financial system. In fact, some analysts have argued that we are in some ways now more vulnerable to a financial meltdown.

9/11 was a catastrophe for America and the world. Sadly, many of the U.S. government’s responses to it also have been disastrous, and the harms to American liberty and security may continue to mount.

This article was published by The Beacon.

UNSC Urges Warring Parties In Yemen To Resume Peace Talks

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The United Nations Security Council urged the parties to the conflict in Yemen to immediately resume talks with the UN envoy for that country and discuss his proposal for a comprehensive agreement covering both security and political issues.

In a press statement, the members of the Council “expressed their continued support for and commitment to the work of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, in bringing the parties to negotiations with a view towards swiftly reaching a final and comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in Yemen.”

The 15-member Council “urged the parties to resume consultations immediately without preconditions and in good faith with the UN Special Envoy on the basis of his proposal for a comprehensive agreement covering both security and political issues.”

Yemen has been engulfed in violence for some years now. A confrontation between the country’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) and the Government of Yemen in early 2014 led to a Houthi advance on the country’s capital, Sana’a in 2014, and an ensuing conflict which has involved support from outside parties. The United Nations has been heavily involved in efforts to resolve the crisis, and repeatedly said that there is no military solution to the Yemeni crises and has called for a return to peaceful negotiations.

Until they recently went into a break, Kuwait had been hosting peace talks – facilitated by the UN envoy – with the Yemeni sides. The break went into effect in early August.

In its statement, the Security Council also “stressed to all parties that any new political arrangements should be the result of an agreement following negotiations under UN auspices, and not the result of unilateral actions by any side.”

To support consultations of the envoy, and avoid further loss of life, the Council “urged all parties to recommit to and fully respect the terms and conditions of the cessation of hostilities entered into on 10 April, which will include a complete halt to ground and air military activities.”

Further in the statement, the Council members reiterated their strong concern about intensified terrorist attacks, such as that which took place in Aden on 29 August, including by Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL; also known as Da’esh), and encouraged all Yemeni parties to avoid any security vacuums that can be exploited by terrorists or other violent groups.

The Council stressed that “a political solution to the crisis is essential to address, in a durable and comprehensive manner, the threat of terrorism in Yemen.”

Noting the devastating humanitarian impact of the conflict, which has resulted in a large number of dead and wounded, on the people in Yemen, the Council also emphasized that the humanitarian situation there will continue to deteriorate in the absence of a peace agreement.

The Council called upon all sides to comply with international humanitarian law and to take urgent measures to improve the humanitarian situation, and to allow safe, rapid, and unhindered access for humanitarian supplies to all affected governorates and facilitate access for essential imports of food, fuel, and medical supplies into the country and their distribution throughout.

In the statement, the members of the Council reiterated their strong commitment to the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Yemen.

What’s Next For Iraq’s Christians After Genocide?

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By Matt Hadro

After the United States has declared that genocide is taking place against Christians and other religious minorities in Iraq, what is the next step for genocide victims displaced from their homes?

“Together, we will advocate for the Christian, Yazidi, and other communities in Northern Iraq that they may return to their homes on the Nineveh Plain to be secured there by coalition and successive international forces,” Andrew Doran, senior adviser to the group In Defense of Christians, stated at the Sept. 7 press conference beginning the group’s advocacy convention in Washington, D.C.

The Nineveh Plain is a 1,600 square mile area in northern Iraq that has been home to various ethnic and religious minorities, including Assyrian Christians who have lived there for centuries as one of the earliest Christian communities.

When militants of the Islamic State swept across northern Iraq in 2014, they displaced hundreds of thousands of these minorities from their homes. They killed innocents, raped and enslaved women and young girls, and destroyed churches and shrines.

In March, the State Department declared that the Islamic State had committed genocide against Christians, Yazidis, and Shia Muslims, and had also committed “crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing” against some “Sunni Muslims, Kurds, and other minorities.”

However, advocates insist that declaring genocide is just the beginning of putting back together the shattered society of northern Iraq.

“There has been far too much of a history of sort of declaring something and then everybody packing up their tents and going home,” Katrina Lantos Swett, former chair of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, stated at the convention press conference.

One of the next steps the U.S. can take now is to help resettle genocide victims in their homes, should they choose to go back. However, what should be the best course of action and how soon must this be done?

The first step would be a safe, secure return for the victims. “The Christians should return to their homes just as quickly as that region is secure,” Doran told CNA.

A coalition of forces, including Iraqi security forces, the Kurdish Peshmerga and local militia, are fighting to eventually retake Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq. That fighting will be long and difficult, Doran acknowledged, but the Nineveh Plain, which lies north and east of the city, would be the first to be abandoned by Islamic State before the city would fall.

There will be refugees from the city already looking to relocate to the plain, he noted.

“In the long term there would need to be coalition and other successive forces to – not substantial numbers, but some numbers – to patrol and keep safe the region around the Nineveh Plain,” he said. The area “will be relatively easy to secure.”

However, then the area needs to be made livable. And it is here where plans need to be laid for the long-term stabilization of the region.

First, the infrastructure would need to be rebuilt since there are whole villages that are “like ghost towns” and houses that have not been occupied for two years, Doran explained. Then there would have to be economic revitalization of the region, with the help of outside investors.

Finally, efforts would have to be made towards “reconciliation” of the various groups in the region – Christians, Sunnis, Yazidis, and Kurds.

In Defense of Christians is hoping for a congressional resolution to support the policy, which would ultimately have to be proposed by the Iraqis themselves.

“We the organizers of this conference are currently advocating for a new congressional resolution that voices U.S. support for the government of Iraq as it moves to create this province,” Robert Nicholson, executive director of the Philos Project, stated at the press conference.

The province would be semi-autonomous and part of a newly-federalized Iraq, where “power and governance” is relegated to the “lowest level,” Nicholson explained.

The idea isn’t new, advocates maintain, as the Iraqi government had planned to create three new provinces in January of 2014, months before Islamic State took over Mosul and the Nineveh Plain.

“The first community that needs to be helped and empowered” is the Assyrian Christians, Nicholson said. They would need “administrative autonomy in their local affairs” and a security force that would be trained and equipped, along with an “international rapid deployment force based in the Nineveh Plain” and legal protections for their culture and language.

They should still have the rights and duties of Iraqi citizens, IDC said, insisting that the area will not be a “ghetto” for minorities. However, if they need a safe zone they must be self-sufficient, and the Nineveh Plain would provide the best opportunity for that.

Would the de-centralization of Iraq lead to further sectarian conflict?

“I think because it wasn’t decentralized, the sectarian conflict is precisely what led to ISIS,” Doran stated.

“In other words, the Sunni populations of Anbar and Nineveh province who felt alienated by the Tehran-dominated central government, those conditions led precisely to many people in the population welcoming ISIS as an alternative to what they regarded to be an oppressive central government.”

Saudi Scholar Says Guardian For Woman Only During Marriage

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By Abdan Al-Abdan

A senior Saudi scholar has said that women are their own guardians and have the lawful right to manage all matters of life and personal affairs by themselves.

Sheikh Abdullah Al-Manea, a member of the Council of Senior Scholars, went on to state that women are under the guardianship of men only at the time of marriage, and that women enjoy the same rights as men.

The senior scholar was responding to a campaign on Twitter in which many people, including lawyers and social activists, expressed their hopes that women’s guardianship would be dropped.

Responding to a question from a local publication on the issue of guardianship, he said: “Once a female is of a mature age, no guardianship is imposed on her, except in the case of marriage.”

He added: “Women are sensible and intelligent human beings who have the right to manage their financial affairs and appoint as proxy whoever they see fit to buy and sell on their behalf.”

He said: “Every lawful right men enjoy, women also enjoy and no guardianship should be imposed on them except in marriage because only the woman’s guardian or parent can give her hand in marriage.”

He explained that a mature woman is one who is able to perform the religious duties set out in Shariah, including prayers, fasting and Haj.

Saudi women agreed with the scholar’s opinion.

“I totally agree with what Al-Manea said regarding the matter of male guardianship,” said Layla Al-Muhammadi, a Saudi woman. “If men and women will be judged equally on the Day of Judgment, it is only logical for both to have at least the same liberties.”

Hayat Bakr, a Saudi university student, told Arab News that the form of male guardianship as it exists today implies that women are not able to make as good choices as men.

“This is not true. Women have proven their capabilities throughout history and in modern times as teachers, rulers of countries, businesswomen, and mothers.”

“Currently, Saudi women need a male guardian for almost all government and bureaucratic work which is a real obstacle that impedes the progress of women,” she added.


Economic Crisis Hitting Moscow And St. Petersburg – OpEd

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Because incomes in Moscow and St. Petersburg were higher to begin with, residents of the two Russian capitals until recently had been able to absorb the impact of the economic crisis better than the other and poorer regions, one reason why there have been fewer economic protests in the politically sensitive capitals than on the periphery.

But a new ROMIR survey shows that the economic crisis is not hitting the relatively well-off not only in the provinces but in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and if that trend continues, it could trigger the kind of protests at the center that the Kremlin might have far more difficulty in coping with or might try to use a new foreign adventure to head off.

The ROMIR survey found that Russians in the country as a whole are spending two percent less now than they did four years ago and that the greatest decline over the summer has taken place in Moscow and St. Petersburg rather than in the provinces or in the capitals of federal subjects (romir.ru/studies/823_1473195600/).

In a commentary on the Svobnaya press portal today entitled “The Crisis has Come to the Capitals,” Aleksey Golyakov says that the ROMIR survey’s finding that the largest reductions in consumer spending over the last month – some ten percent — occurred in the Central Federal District (svpressa.ru/society/article/156022/).

“Moreover,” he writes, “for the first time in many years the number of Muscovites who say they are reducing their daily expenditures has risen significantly.” They report that they have cut back daily spending over the last month by 4.7 percent. In St. Petersburg, that figure was even higher – 5.3 percent.

Such cutbacks have been characteristic of residents of other Russian cities with more than a million residents, while those who live in smaller cities (those with fewer than 500,000 residents) cut back less in August, largely because they had cut back more than Muscovites or Petersburgers already.

Leonty Byzov, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Sociology, says that these results show that even in the capitals Russians are beginning to recognize that things aren’t good and that the current crisis is not like the one of 2008-2009 and will not be solved without a radical change of course.

Until now, he continues, residents of the capitals didn’t feel this way because their higher incomes had provided them with a cushion; but that is rapidly disappearing. Society is still “demoralized” and doesn’t know what to do, he suggests, although as the crisis hits ever more people, some may decide to act.

One idea that is being floated in Moscow to address this situation is to print more money, but that will only produce more inflation, Nikolay Troshin of the Moscow Institute for Strategic Research says. Only genuine economic growth can lift the population back up; pumping up incomes via inflation without any other changes won’t.

Egypt Approves New Penalties For Female Genital Mutilation

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More stringent penalties for female genital mutilation approved by Egypt’s parliament on August 31, 2016, are a step toward eliminating the practice, but further legal and other reforms are needed, Human Rights Watch said today. Egyptian authorities should make sure that laws and policies against female genital mutilation are enforced, including holding accountable medical facility directors who allow the practice to take place.

The new penal code amendments provide for prison terms of five to seven years for those who carry out female genital mutilation, sometimes abbreviated as FGM, and up to 15 years if the case results in permanent disability or death.

“Stricter penalties for female genital mutilation in Egypt now reflect the horrific and potentially deadly consequences of this discriminatory practice,” said Rothna Begum, Middle East women’s rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. “But broader law reform is needed to adequately combat this horrific practice, and all such laws should be enforced to protect tens of thousands of girls at risk.”

Under the amendments, anyone who escorts girls to undergo female genital mutilation will face one to three years in prison. However, a 2010 UNICEF report recommended that “[t]he law should take into account the hardship inflicted on families when parents are penalised and should consider the best interests of the child. Preventive and protective measures should be prioritised and punishment should be a last resort.”

The Egyptian authorities should promote broader law reform, including dedicated funding for preventing female genital mutilation, Human Rights Watch said.

Female genital mutilation involves the partial or total removal of female genitalia for non-medical purposes. It has no known health benefits and serious adverse health consequences, including death in some cases. Egypt criminalized the practice in 2008, but it continues to be routine, and there has been only one criminal prosecution resulting in a conviction.

A key problem relating to the lack of investigations and prosecutions is the wide social acceptance of the practice. A 2014 demographic and health survey for Egypt, conducted on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Population, found that 92 percent of currently or formerly married girls and women between the ages of 15 and 49 had undergone female genital mutilation. The survey showed that the practice had decreased between 2005 and 2014, but estimated that 56 percent of girls under 19 were expected to undergo it in the future.

The amendments to the penal code retain an unnecessary reference to its article 61, which allows for dropping charges if a defendant committed a crime because of an immediate and “grievous danger” to themselves or a third party. Retaining this clause may encourage judges to drop charges in these cases, Human Rights Watch said. The parliament should revise the amendments to eliminate this clause.

The penal code amendment should be accompanied by broader reforms to give legal force to elements of Egypt’s 2015 national strategy to end female genital mutilation, Human Rights Watch said. Egypt should enact legislation to guarantee funding and other resources for a comprehensive response, including prevention programs aimed at changing social attitudes that condone the practice. The government should enforce all relevant laws, while placing the greatest emphasis on prevention and protection of girls.

While the Ministry of Health banned medical personnel from practicing female genital mutilation in 2007, the practice continues to be widespread. The 2014 survey found that trained medical personnel performed the practice in 82 percent of the cases. The Ministry of Health should enforce its ban and introduce procedures to hold accountable medical facility directors who knew or should have known that female genital mutilation was taking place in their facilities and failed to stop it, including removal from their posts, Human Rights Watch said.

In January 2015, an appeals court convicted a doctor of manslaughter and sentenced him to two years in prison, as well as three months in prison for practicing female genital mutilation. The doctor had performed female genital mutilation in 2013 on Sohair al-Batea, a 13-year-old girl, who died as a result. He served only three months of his sentence after reaching a financial settlement with the family, said Reda al-Danbouki, the lawyer from the Women’s Centre for Guidance and Legal Awareness who represented the girl. The girl’s father received a three month suspended sentence for taking his daughter to undergo the practice.

Egyptian authorities should develop guidelines and procedures to provide training and change attitudes among police, prosecutors, judges, health professionals, social workers, and teachers to help them address the practice and to provide appropriate protection and services, Human Rights Watch said. For all these efforts, it should consult and work closely with nongovernmental organizations.

“A successful strategy to uproot FGM will require working with the community to change hearts and minds,” Begum said.

Israel Whitewashes Genocidal Sudanese Regime – OpEd

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Israel has been lobbying U.S. and EU states to soften their opposition to Sudan, whose leadership has engaged in genocide in Darfur and pursued a violent campaign to suppress a secessionist movement in South Sudan, which itself has been riven by civil war after gaining independence.  Remember that Sudan’s dictator, Omar al Bashir, is wanted by the ICC for charges of war crimes and genocide.  That he was an early supporter of, and provider of refuge for Osama bin Laden before he found refuge in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

For nearly a decade, Israel has frequently but covertly attacked Sudan, which it claimed acted as a way station for Iranian arms shipments to Gaza on behalf of Hamas.  Both ships and land-based arms convoys were attacked by the IAF, which even launched a massive attack on a supposed Iranian arms depot, causing massive explosions in Khartoum.  Israel has seen Sudan as a puppet of Iran and supporter of Palestinian terror for as long as anyone can remember.

But now all appears forgiven.  This is the fruit of the budding bromance between Bibi Netanyahu and the House of Saud.  Due to their mutual enmity toward Iran, Israel has parlayed this into a budding love affair with much of the Sunni world including Egypt, the Saudis and the Gulf States.

It appears that as far as al Bashir is concerned Iran couldn’t better the Saudi offer.  So the latter, in effect, flipped him.  The Saudis don’t make many friends naturally.  Not too many even in the Muslim world are attracted to Wahabism, repression of women, and a largely hostile attitude toward much of the outside world.  But money talks and there’s lots of it flowing out of Saudi oil wells.  So the Saudis showered rials on al Bashir, who is facing economic catastrophe due to a set of economic sanctions against his country.

Bashir became a cheerleader for the Saudi massacre of Shia Houthis in Yemen.  His country evicted Iranians from Sudan, even cutting off diplomatic relations.  It welcomed the Saudis to take their place.

There is a new compact between Israel and the Saudis.  Not many in the west (including the U.S. and Europe) have much favorable to say about Saudi Arabia.  It has little influence outside of Riyadh.  But Israel, despite its pariah status, does have the ear of policymakers, especially in the U.S.   So Israel agreed to run interference on behalf of Sudan.

This seems to have borne some fruit.  Secretary of State John Kerry hasn’t seemed to have met a genocidaire he can’t break bread with.  You’ve seen that vile photograph of him dining in elegant luxury with Bashar al Assad in the years before the civil war.  Now Kerry is meeting with Sudanese diplomats seeking a way to remove U.S. sanctions against their country.  How short our memory is when we need someone to do our dirty work for us.  Or to reward someone who’s betrayed a former ally we detest (Iran).

How little it surprises me that Israel champions the genocidaires of the world: it arms Congolese rebels who are responsible for killing 4-million there.  It champions Paul Kagame, the Rwandan dictator who keeps the fuse well-lit in that decades-old war.  Israel also supports the “moderate” Syrian Islamist rebels, al-Nusra, which are affiliated with al Qaeda.

Barak Ravid’s Haaretz story notes an Israeli pivot to Africa in recent years.  But he neglects to note that this isn’t a pivot to democratic Africa (Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia).  But rather a pivot to the worst dictators and killers known to that continent.  The kind of scum who no decent nation or human being would be caught dead with.  And those scum whom the Israeli government won’t officially deal with, are serviced gladly by Israeli military contractors who earn billions in consulting fees by providing security, weapons, and computer systems which permit them to rig elections (Zimbabwe) and maintain control of the population.

The next thing you know, there will be African refugees expelled from Israel and dumped in Kharthoum as they currently are in Uganda and other states whose acquiescence has been bought by Israeli arms and trade deals.

So will we anoint al Bashir with oil and christen him a new, redeemed man?  Will we give him a free pass at the ICC?  God, how the thought disgusts me.

This article was published by Tikun Olam

Perfect Storm In Ethiopia: Big Government Controlled By Small Group – Analysis

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By Mehari Fisseha

In an Al Jazeera article published on August 20, 2016, security forces were reported to have used excessive force in quelling recent anti-government demonstrations in Ethiopia. Video footage showing the protest was embedded in the article with Aljazeera’s reporter Charles Stratford interviewing victims of the violence. According to Stratford, the wave of violence was fueled by tribal conflict that began with the Oromo, the biggest ethnic community in Ethiopia. Most notable here is the fact that the Ethiopian government is controlled by the country’s smallest ethnic group. The protests were organized to demonstrate against violations of the human rights by the ruling party.

Political and Social Drivers

In his report, Stratford stated that Human Rights Watch had estimated the number of people killed in the protests at 500 people. The demonstrations first arose in November 2015 and since then thousands of Ethiopian nationals have been arrested and detained. Human Rights Watch reiterates that the Amhara (Ethiopia’s second largest tribe) joined the Oromo in protesting against the violation of both political and economic rights. The article features one picture of a protesters with a poster stating, “Stop killing the Oromo people.” This poster clearly shows that the Oromo people are under fire from the government security forces, raising the possibility that the protests are due to systemic violence.

Ethiopian government spokesman Getachew Reda was also interviewed in the article and he denied the violence being “systemic.” In his explanation, Mr. Reda stated that the Ethiopian government took seriously the allegations of “off-grid police officers” who used excessive force on peaceful protesters. Nevertheless, the government was stated to blame the predicament on the opposition working from within and outside Ethiopia. The government stated that the opposition had used “anti-peace forces” to organize “unauthorized protests.” The article raised the need for accountability.

Speaking for the Office of the UN High Commission for Human Rights (OHCHR), Ravina Shamdasani stated that commission was ready to start investigations into the Ethiopian situation. Ethiopia had previously dismissed pressure from the UN to permit investigations into the killings of international observers. Ms. Shamdasani clarified that the UN welcomed investigations by the Ethiopian government on violations of human rights since the inception of the unrests in Oromia. She reiterated that the probe was supposed to be “independent, transparent, thorough and effective.”  Thus, the success of this investigation would be dependent on the cooperation of the Ethiopian government.

Stratford also reported that the Ethiopian government had pledged to punish all members of the security forces found guilty of killing innocent protesters. However, there has since been no information in the public domain of any culprit being brought to book. It is thus important to consider the constitution of human rights violations according to the Ethiopian government that would warrant possible arrests and detention of guilty officers. Furthermore, the conflict and ensuing investigations impact directly to the future progress of Ethiopia and the entire East African region.

Future Impact of the Situation in Ethiopia

Owing to the fact that up to 500 people have been killed in the Ethiopian protests from November 2015 to August 2016, the number is likely to rise exponentially if these protests and violent responses are not quelled. According to Asafa Jalata  “terrorism” has been fostered within the Ethiopian government against the Oromo people beginning with the “last decades of the 19th Century. Although they are the largest ethnic community, the Oromo people have faced tragedy and destruction especially by the Abyssinia people that dominate the government since the colonial period. The Oromo population has been shrinking drastically in the wake of anti-government protests, leading to a decrease in economic development.

In a CNN article by Awol Allo, the United States was cited as the greatest contributor to the deadlock in Ethiopia. With its funding capabilities and the recent visit of the US President to Ethiopia, the US was seen to escalate tensions in the country. Pressure from civil society organizations and human rights groups in the international arena have mounted such that the US withdrew funding aid to Ethiopia until investigations into the violence are conducted. The withdrawal of the US will also push other international donors from supporting Ethiopian projects.

According to Dana Sanchez, Western government are accused of funding of Ethiopian projects despite the country’s crisis. The protests began when a development plan was drawn to enlarge the “territorial limits of Addis Ababa” into the ancestral lands of the Oromo in April 2014. The Oromo people feared that this development agenda of the government would evict them as it had been shown since the colonial era. With over 33 million people representing the Oromo people in Ethiopia, continued violence would in turn lead to a huge spill-over of refugees into neighboring East African countries.

Awol K. Allo’s article stated that the US aided Ethiopia saw the Mulatu Teshome-led government as a partner against global terrorism attacks. However, the escalation of violence against the Oromo, who are widely affiliated to the Muslim religion, will attract the attention of terrorists not only into Ethiopia but the entire East African region. Additional marginalization of the Oromo will work to suppress economic progress in the region and downplay investment decisions by foreigners in the future.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

Trump Says It’s ‘Unlikely’ Russia Interfering In US Election

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(RFE/RL) — U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told a Russia-funded television network on September 8 that “it’s probably unlikely” that Russia is trying to influence the U.S. election.

Trump, who has faced a backlash from both parties in recent days for praising Russian President Vladimir Putin, was interviewed by Larry King, a veteran American journalist whose show airs Thursday evenings on RT America, the U.S. partner of a network originally called “Russia Today.”

Trump’s interview with King was promoted by RT America as an exclusive, although a Trump spokeswoman suggested to AP that Trump was not aware that King’s program was linked to the Russian-backed network.

When King asked about reports that U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating whether Russia is trying to disrupt the election through cyberattacks, Trump said that he’s skeptical.

“I think it’s probably unlikely. I think maybe the Democrats are putting that out,” Trump said. “I hope that if they are doing something, I hope that somebody’s going to be able to find out, so they can end it, because that would not be appropriate at all.”

Cybersecurity experts have blamed Russian intelligence agencies for electronic break-ins into Democratic Party computers this year.

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