It is highly doubtful that a single person or group within the government can change Armenia’s military or foreign policy, for Armenia would still be subject to the same objective geopolitical realities in the region no matter who is in charge.

By David Davidian*

The recent resignation of Armenia’s Prime Minister has brought with it abundant commentary, most with little substance. Much of the reaction centered on the top new appointments: defense and prime minsters, Vigen Sargsyan, and Karen Karapetyan, respectievly. These new assignments are for a caretaker government, culminating in a fresh vote in May 2017 for members in a parliamentary government that will replace the current presidential system. The latter is more important than personalities in this case. Yet political analysts have attempted to draw correlations between these new power ministers’ business interests or educational training and changing the course of Armenia’s domestic or foreign policies. Usually analysts look for any business relationships – i.e. where an individual grew-up or was educated, family and ethnic ties, etc. – as a sources of data upon which they can suggest a policy-maker’s direction. However, it is too simplistic to assume any elected government could engage in near-dictatorial actions such as changing global alliances or countering obvious national interests based on personal whims. Why would even this be exceedingly difficult in Armenia?

Armenia’s domestic and foreign policies are directly related to geopolitics. Those geopolitics are centered around the simmering conflict in the Armenian populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh situated between Armenia and Azerbaijan (see map). In addition to Russian interests, Iran re-entering the regional stage, Georgia’s western aspirations, there is the two-decade old combined Turkish-Azerbaijani border blockade of Armenia and resulting regional isolation. Nagorno-Karabakh, where nearly 30,000 people were killed between 1987 and 1994, still witnesses periodic border clashes between local Armenians and the Azerbaijani army. Armenians were victorious in 1994 and run their own affairs today in this region, but it is claimed by Azerbaijan. This paragraph comprises an enormous set of geopolitical realities that cannot be ignored by political analysts if they expect to have an accurate assessment of the Armenian condition.

It is highly doubtful that a single person or group within the government can change Armenia’s military or foreign policy, for Armenia would still be subject to the same objective geopolitical realities in the region no matter who is in charge. All that is accomplished with a governmental shuffle in Armenia is to replace the players on one side of a game of Go; the game pieces remain.

Armenia’s existence was put into peril some twenty-five years ago, during the turbulent post-Soviet era. At that time potential global partners were busy disintegrating Yugoslavia, adding members to NATO, playing cowboy capitalism in many post-soviet states, and purposely over-estimating Caspian Basin oil reserves among other things. Armenia was left with no other choice for a best global partner, and that was Russia. The EU and US apparently had higher priorities. Based on their calculus at the time, perhaps they did.

Today, it is unclear what alternative global partners would be in Armenia’s national interest if even given a choice. One would think potential partners should be obvious, yet they seem illusive. Armenia in its current embodiment doesn’t represent much politically, in a relative sense, except perhaps as a potential irritant to Russia. Georgia’s Saakashvilli was such an irritant and lost South Ossetia. It is not accurate to assume that all events in the world execute as simplistically and as serially as on the Game of Thrones.

Perhaps the best example of the reality Armenia lives with is that Russian soldiers guard Armenia’s border with Turkey and have done so for over two decades. Political analysts must ask why this would even be necessary and, moreover, the impact of their removal before suggesting cookie cutter solutions to complex problems with multiple order affects.

David Davidian is an Adjunct Lecturer at the American University of Armenia. He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high technology firms.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of TransConflict.

For the left-wing extremism problem in India to be resolved, tribal population in the affected areas must be won over by the State. This truism is reflected in public statements of ministers and other politicians as well as official policy documents. Former Union Home Minister P Chidambaram had underlined the need to bridge the trust deficit between the State and the tribals. An expert group of the erstwhile Planning Commission in its report had suggested that the tribals must be at the core of any development plan in the extremist affected areas.

However, one of the fallouts of the decade-long war on the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and the urge to bring to secure a victory over the extremists by any of the Kautilyan means is resulting in the fracturing of the tribal communities. Since the war on the Maoists began, the State may not have been able to convince the tribals of its intentions of bringing in development to the area. The security agencies, however, can claim to have nurtured sections within the tribal community who readily participate in government sponsored rallies denouncing extremism; join the state sponsored vigilante groups; swear by the oppressive regime of the extremists; share their liberating experience in areas freed from Maoist control; and so on and so forth. It is a different matter altogether that the participation of tribals in government organised programmes can hardly be taken as an expression of their conviction in the goodness of the State, but merely as a pointer at how the powerful State structures can find ways to exploit the vulnerabilities of the marginalised communities to its advantage.

On 18 September 2016, the Chhattisgarh police backed Action Group for National Integrity (AGNI) organised a Lalkar (defiance) rally in Jagdalpur. Termed as the biggest ever anti-Maoist congregation of people consisting predominantly of tribals, security force officials shared the dais with vigilante group leaders declaring a war against the extremists. Bike-borne youths led from the front in which 50,000 tribals are said to have participated. Selfie points had been erected for youths to take photographs with the placard holding population in the background. Slogans like ‘Free your village from Naxals and take a selfie’ summed up the instant gratification the tribals can have after the extremists are vanquished. The State, it appeared, has finally succeeded in convincing a large number of tribals to be a part of the mainstream.

In October 2016, the Chhattisgarh police for the first time inducted two tribal women into its fighting squad against the CPI-Maoist. In their first ever encounter, both police personnel were credited with killing two Maoist cadres. Subsequently it turned out that those killed were tribal youths unconnected with extremism.

Prior to that, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) unveiled its plan to recruit tribal youths from Bastar into a fighting battalion, aptly named the Bastariya battalion. The physical attributes and other requirements of the candidates have been lowered to facilitate the diversion of 1000 young men who could have been part of the recruitment pool of the CPI-Maoist. Their first-hand knowledge of the terrain and command over the language spoken by the tribals will come in handy when they are deployed in COIN duties. The State can claim to have a genuine tribal fighting wing to take on the tribals on the side of the CPI-Maoist.

When states like Chhattisgarh have embarked upon a mission to get rid of the Maoist problem by the end of 2016, such incidents and expressions of loyalty does give the impression of the State inching towards a victory. The fact, however, remains that if vigilante programmes like the Salwa Judum and its various other subsequent avatars were the State’s instrumentalities of launching a tribal versus tribal warfare in the areas controlled by the CPI-Maoist, the developments listed above have further deepened the divide to a point of no return. The Maoist affected areas today are rife with incidents of tribals killing tribals, tribal young men sexually abusing tribal women, tribals burning the huts of tribals, and various other atrocities. Most of these acts not only go unpunished, but are widely considered to be the new normal in extremist affected areas.

Among the strategic circles of the country, there is a cautious unanimity that Left Wing Extremism is in its death bed. The excitement over bringing what used to be the ‘biggest internal security challenge’ to an end must, however, nudge us to think as to what cost this victory will be achieved at. Will the inhabitants of the ‘Maoist-free areas’ be anything more than fractured communities and scarred tribals whose experience of abuse and subjugation at the hands of their own tribal brethren outweighing the feeling of liberation? Will such areas in the true sense of the term ever be integral parts of a stable nation? These questions must figure in the imaginations of the policy makers as such short-sighted tactics are persisted with.

This article was published at IPCS

By Mahmoud Zidan*

Like his predecessors, the incumbent Prime Minister of the Israeli colonial state Benjamin Netanyahu never fails to cause a twitch in one’s face.

In response to the UNESCO draft resolution that emphasizes the indissoluble connection between Al-Haram Al-Sharif (the Noble Sanctuary) and Islam and criticizes the Israeli belligerent practices in Jerusalem, especially in its holy sites; Netanyahu commented that the vote—the resolution was adopted by twenty-four countries and opposed by six (including the U.S., the U.K., and Germany)—was a scene from “the theater of the absurd.”

He went on to say: “Today UNESCO [with which Israel has severed its ties as a result of the resolution] adopted its second decision denying the Jewish people’s connection to the Temple Mount, our holiest site for more than 3,000 years…What’s next? A UNESCO decision denying the connection between peanut butter and jelly? Batman and Robin? Rock ‘n’ roll?”

Linguists must find Netanyahu’s language games a rich material for analysis, as the phrases joined by “and” all exemplify what is generally called collocations, namely words or phrases that are conventionally placed together. But Netanyahu’s examples may not cause any twitch in their faces if their analysis stops there.

If one goes beyond that step, then dealing with twitches is a must. One will notice that Netanyahu mixes up mundane or popular objects such as “peanut butter and jelly” with what is typically thought of as higher art; that is, “the theater of the absurd.”

That mix-up might cause a slight twitch, specifically because it conjures up and exemplifies, as always, the theater of the absurd: Recall his histrionic display of a cartoon drawing of a bomb symbolizing the Iranian nuclear program at the UN assembly or the 45-second silence during which he glowered down at the delegates in the same forum.

Another absurd, twitch-inducing rhetorical gesture is his combining aggressively capitalistic and imperialistic language with religion and spirituality.

By using the pronoun “our” in the phrase “our holiest site,” Netanyahu arrogates Al-Aqsa Mosque and Al-Haram Al-Sharif to Zionists to further implement on the ground the myth of Greater Israel. That arrogation should not be surprising, as it is typical of colonizers and imperialists who never hesitate to claim what belongs to “Others” as theirs.

Indeed, Netanyahu’s absurd claim, and Israel’s for that matter, flies in the face of historical facts—which Netanyahu obdurately ignores. Nadia Abu El Haj’s Facts on the Ground and John James Moscrop’s Measuring Palestine both refute his spurious claims, as they suggest that the connection between the “findings” of the archaeological excavations in Palestine—which were inaugurated by the Palestine Exploration Fund in the nineteenth century and have continued for more than a century and a half now—and Zionism is baseless.

The most absurd—although not very absurd for anybody who follows Netanyahu’s rhetoric and absurdities—part of Netanyahu’s statement are the collocations at the end of the quotation. The twitches this time could either be caused by laughter or shock, depending on whether one is accustomed to Netanyahu’s rhetoric or not.

Netanyahu here describes the UN agency’s emphasis on the Islamic character of Al-Aqsa Mosque and its refuting Zionist claims as akin to delinking peanut butter from jelly. His intention is undeniably clear: He wants to make fun of and trivialize the resolution. But his words also trivialize peoples, religions, and cultures.

By comparing the issue of Jerusalem to popular objects, Netanyahu underestimates the suffering of Palestinians and the theft and atrocities perpetrated by the colonizing power. He also trivializes Judaism and Jewish suffering, making a statement with which anti-Semites would have no problem in automatically agreeing: The connection between Jews and Jerusalem is—according to Netanyahu—akin to the one between peanut butter and jelly!

Ironically, the references to popular American culture here were first made in Hebrew, not in English. Netanyahu does not mind Americanizing his rhetoric, even when it comes to defending the ethnocentric Israeli state.

Perhaps heeding either the cultural references or the affinity between the Israeli state and the U.S. in subjugating and negating the presence of Palestinians and “Others,” both U.S. presidential candidates Clinton and Trump condemned the resolution.

Trump even went so far as to point out what he calls “anti-Israel bias of the UN,” a claim that is disproved by many U.N. practices complicit with the Israeli state and directly taken from Israeli hasbara (propaganda), an exemplary of which is the Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennet, who—as a reaction to the resolution—accused the UN of denying Jewish history.

The last type of twitch that Netanyahu’s statement provokes is a twitch of déjà vu. In 2007, the Rand Corporation published a document—commissioned by the Pentagon—entitled “Enlisting Madison Avenue: The Marketing Approach to Earning Popular Support in Theaters of Operation.”

The first link between Netanyahu’s rhetoric and the report is theatricality. The second is its aggressively capitalistic language.

But the third and most telling is clear in this quotation about changing the brand of the War on Terror: “The slow pour of Heinz ketchup once embodied the brand’s positioning of the ketchup as having a thick, rich consistency. Possibly reflecting a new societal focus on speed and efficiency, Heinz still maintains that its ketchup is ‘thick and rich,’ but the positioning now focuses more on its new upside-down squeeze packaging that is ‘always ready when you are.’”

They follow this with the example of McDonald’s.

Please remember that the two examples, Heinz ketchup and McDonald’s, appear in a report that was supposed to help the then American administration formulate its foreign policies, including marketing its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Rand Corporation’s report and Netanyahu’s words are uncannily similar: The combination of burger and ketchup is not a far cry from that of peanut butter and jelly.

It is these resemblances that represent the theater of the absurd rather than the recent resolution. That theater, among whose actors are Netanyahu, the Rand Corporation and company, never fails to cause twitches in people’s faces, but it goes further: Its main purpose is to banalize “Others’” lives and suffering and literally damage their faces.

*Professor Mahmoud Zidan lives in Jordan. He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com.

A revolutionary study involving researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Radioastronomy (MPIfR) in Germany, Trinity College Dublin in Ireland, and NASA in the USA, has obtained the sharpest ever images of one of the heaviest stars in our Galaxy. The images show Eta Carinae and its violent collision of winds in stunning detail, providing new information on how stars evolve and die.

Eta Carinae is the heavyweight champion in our galaxy, shining with a power equivalent to 5,000,000 Suns. It is surrounded by the beautiful Homunculus nebula, which contains the remains of material ejected in 1843 when Eta Carinae was one of the brightest stars in the sky.

At the heart of the nebula, another monster companion star is evaporating while it orbits Eta Carinae. They are blowing powerful outflows that are colliding between the two at a speed of 10,000,000 km/h. The violent outflowing winds as seen in Eta Carinae herald the end of a star’s life as a supernova, and their study provides scientists with clues about how such stars evolve and die.

The team used a new imaging technique, called interferometry, which combines the light from three large telescopes to obtain extremely sharp images. The new Eta Carinae observations could only have been made with the European Southern Observatory (ESO) telescopes.

The team, led by Professor Gerd Weigelt (MPIfR), combined the infrared light of Eta Carinae employing three movable 1.8-metre telescopes of the ESO’s Very Large Telescope Interferometer. Very sharp and detailed images can be obtained when the movable telescopes are located very far apart. Because of that, the final images are as sharp as if they had been observed from a giant 130-metre telescope.

Professor of Astrophysics at Trinity College Dublin, Jose Groh, said, “These are unprecedented images obtained with the ESO telescopes. We were able to zoom in and see the heavyweight champion in our Galaxy like never before. The images provide us with a front-row view of how monster stars interact with each other. The heavier star is winning for now, but the faster companion star may change the fate of the system in the future.”

Extreme physical processes occur when the powerful winds collide in Eta Carinae. In the collision region, the hot gas emits strong amounts of light. The astronomers used this light to produce the new images of Eta Carinae. By dispersing and analyzing the light from Eta Carinae, the team could determine how the gas moves in the zone where the winds collide.

In the past, it was not possible to resolve this violent collision zone, because its extension is too small even for the largest telescopes.

Professor Gerd Weigelt added: “Our dreams came true, because we can now get extremely sharp images in the infrared regime. The ESO interferometer provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our physical understanding of Eta Carinae and many other monster objects.”

The ongoing decline of more than 300 species of animals is having significant environmental impacts and posing a food security threat for millions of people in Asia, Africa and South America, according to the first global assessment of the hunting and trapping of terrestrial mammals.

Species of large wild ungulates, primates and bats are threatened primarily by unregulated or illegal hunting, according to data collected by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), a nongovernmental organization.

Researchers concluded that only bold changes and political will can diminish the possibility of humans consuming many of the world’s wild mammals to the point of extinction.

An international team led by William Ripple, distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University, analyzed data on the IUCN Red List to reach their findings, which were published today in Royal Society Open Science, a professional journal.

The animals at risk range from large (grey ox, Bactrian camels, bearded and warty pigs) to small (golden-capped fruit bat, black-bearded flying fox and Bulmer’s fruit bat). Hunting endangers more primate species – 126, including the lowland gorilla, chimpanzee, bonobo and many species of lemurs and monkeys – than any other group.

Populations of other species are declining and similarly threatened. Javan and black rhinoceroses, tapirs, deer, tree kangaroos, armadillos, pangolins, rodents and large carnivores are all hunted or trapped for meat, medicine, body parts, trophies or live pets.

Scientists reviewed IUCN data on 1,169 of the world’s terrestrial mammals that are listed as threatened with extinction. These animals represent 26 percent of all mammals for which data exist to determine whether or not they are endangered.

Forests, grasslands and deserts in the developing world are now lacking many species of wild animals and becoming “empty landscapes,” the authors wrote in their study.

The researchers suggested five broad steps for effectively addressing the threat:

• Laws could be changed to increase penalties for poaching and illegal trafficking and to expand protected habitats for endangered mammals.
• Property rights could be provided to communities that benefit from the presence of wildlife.
• Food alternatives can help shift consumption to more sustainable species, especially protein-rich plant foods.
• Education could help consumers in all countries understand the threats to mammals that are hunted or trapped.
• Assistance in family planning could help relieve pressure on wildlife in regions where women want to delay or avoid pregnancy.

The researchers suggest that, to curb this overhunting crisis, more logistical and financial support will be needed from the richer, developed countries.

“Our analysis is conservative,” said Ripple. “These 301 species are the worst cases of declining mammal populations for which hunting and trapping are clearly identified as a major threat. If data for a species were missing or inconclusive, we didn’t include it.

“Our goal is to raise awareness of this global crisis. Many of these animals are at the brink of extinction. The illegal smuggling in wildlife and wildlife products is run by dangerous international networks and ranks among trafficking in arms, human beings and drugs in terms of profits.”

People across much of the globe depend on wild meat for part of their diets, the researchers noted. For example, they wrote, “an estimated 89,000 metric tons of meat with a market value of about $200 million are harvested annually in the Brazilian Amazon, and exploitation rates in the Congo basin are estimated to be five times higher….” Loss of these mammals could affect the livelihoods of millions of people, the researchers said.

Overhunting of mammals is concentrated, they added, in countries with poorer populations. As hunters find it harder to feed their families, it is likely they will switch to less preferred species, migrate, or suffer from malnutrition and disease.

Not all wild meat is consumed for subsistence, the researchers noted. Much of it is sold in markets and as delicacies in urban restaurants. In 2010, another team of scientists found that about five tons of bushmeat are smuggled weekly in tourist luggage through the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris.

Large carnivores and herbivores (bigger than 10 kilograms or 22 pounds) comprise a small percentage of all mammals listed but tend to be impacted more severely by overhunting, the researchers reported. By dispersing seeds and controlling smaller animals such as rodents, large animals have significant impacts on the environment.

The loss of large mammals could lead to long-lasting ecological changes, including overpopulation of prey, higher disease risks and the loss of benefits for humans, the researchers said. The scientists found that 57 species of even-toed ungulates (such as hippopotamus, wild yak, camel, marsh deer) larger than 10 kilograms are threatened by hunting.

Smaller mammals play crucial roles in dispersing seeds, pollinating plants and controlling insects. The largest group of mammals under 1 kilogram (about 2 pounds) threatened by hunting is comprised of 27 species of bats.

Ripple has led international collaborations to analyze the status and ecological effects of large animals. Co-authors on this project include researchers at Oregon State University, Stanford University, the University of California Santa Barbara and universities in Gabon, the U.K., Sweden, South Africa, Brazil and Australia.

New research presented at this year’s International Early Psychosis Asso

ciation (IEPA) meeting in Milan, Italy (20-22 October) shows that supplementation with taurine (well known as an additive found in drinks such as Red Bull) improves symptoms in young people suffering a first episode of psychosis (FEP). The study is by Dr Colin O’Donnell, Donegal Mental Health Service, Letterkenny, County Donegal, Ireland, and Professor Patrick McGorry and Dr Kelly Allott, Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, VIC, Australia, and colleagues.

Taurine is an amino acid naturally occurring in the body that has various functions, including aiding the function of the cardiovascular system. It exhibits an inhibitory neuro-modulatory effect in the nervous system and also functions as a neuroprotective agent. It is also involved in development of the nervous system. For all these reasons, it was chosen as an interesting substance to study for potential treatment of psychosis. In this new study, the authors analysed the efficacy of taurine supplementation in improving both symptoms and cognition in patients with FEP.

A total of 121 patients (aged 18-25 years) with FEP, taking low dose antipsychotic medication, and attending Orygen’s early intervention services in Melbourne agreed to take part in the study. Patients received taurine 4 grams or placebo once daily. A scoring system called BPRS (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale) was used to assess symptoms, and a different tool called MCCB (MATRICS consensus cognitive battery) was used to assess cognition.

A total of 86 patients (47 receiving taurine and 39 placebo) were included in the final analysis. Taurine was found to be both safe and well tolerated. Taurine significantly improved symptoms on the BPRS scale, both in overall score and the part specifically analysing psychosis. There were also improvements in depression symptoms (rated by the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia [CDSS]) and general overall functioning (including social and workplace functioning). However, there was no difference between groups regarding cognition.

The authors concluded: “Although taurine supplementation did not improve cognition, it appears to improve core symptoms and depression in patients with FEP. The use of taurine warrants further investigation in larger randomised studies, particularly early in the course of psychosis.”

The authors are planning further studies to examine the potential benefits of taurine both alone and in conjunction with other supplements in the treatment of psychosis.

Five hundred vents newly discovered off the US West Coast, each bubbling methane from Earth’s belly, top a long list of revelations about “submerged America” being celebrated by leading marine explorers meeting in New York.

“It appears that the entire coast off Washington, Oregon and California is a giant methane seep,” said RMS Titanic discoverer Robert Ballard, who found the new-to-science vents on summer expeditions by his ship, Nautilus.

The discoveries double to about 1,000 the number of such vents now known to exist along the continental margins of the USA. This fizzing methane (video: http://bit.ly/2egtF7F) is a powerful greenhouse gas if it escapes into the atmosphere; a clean burning fuel if safely captured.

“This is an area ripe for discovery,” said Dr. Nicole Raineault, Director of Science Operations with Dr. Ballard’s Ocean Exploration Trust. “We do not know how many seeps exist, even in US waters, how long they have been active, how persistent they are, what activated them or how much methane, if any, makes it into the atmosphere.”

Further research and measuring will help fill important knowledge gaps, including how hydrocarbons behave at depth underwater and within the geological structure of the ocean floor.

Expeditions this year include also NOAA’s Deepwater Exploration of the Marianas Trench – a 59-day voyage with 22 dives into the planet’s deepest known canyons in the Pacific Ocean near Guam.

NOAA explorers added three new hydrothermal vents to the world’s inventory and a new high-temperature “black smoker” vent field composed of chimneys up to 30 meters tall – the height of a nine-story building.

Also revealed: a tiny spot volcano (the first ever discovered in US waters), a new mud volcano, thick gardens of deep-sea corals and sponges, a rare high-density community of basket stars and crinoids (a living fossil), and historic wreckage from World War II. (Photo, video log: http://bit.ly/2cTjp0a)

Bizarre purple animals

Scores of spectacular, rare and sometimes baffling unknown species encountered on this year’s first-ever voyages to new deep ocean areas include several purple animals such as:

• A bizarre purple “mud monster”: the “acorn worm.” Photo: http://bit.ly/2dytSnW, video: http://bit.ly/2d6FQ6a,
  credit: NOAA
• Swimming purple sea cucumber, reminiscent of a flying Mary Poppins. Photo: http://bit.ly/2dQdURC, video: http://bit.ly/2d6FQ6a,
  credit: NOAA
• A mysterious purple orb, likened by one scientist to a disco ball, that may prove to be new to science. Photo: http://bit.ly/2dBQDoC, video: http://bit.ly/2cXM5Ho,
  credit: Ocean Exploration Trust
• A rare purple Vampire Squid, (Vampyroteuthis infernalis), a deep-sea creature nicknamed for its deep color and red eyes (not because it feeds on blood). Photo: http://bit.ly/2dlk2mo video: http://bit.ly/2ctAimv,
  credit: Ocean Exploration Trust
• Stubby “googly-eyed” purple animal looking like a cross between an octopus and a squid. Photo: http://bit.ly/2d8UWHn, video: http://bit.ly/2cYoQ13
  Credit: Ocean Exploration Trust

Beyond being spectacularly photogenic, such animals help scientists better understand the web of life that sustains all species, including humans.

As well, understanding how “extremophile” lifeforms survive in such conditions (piezophiles, for example, thrive in high pressure; pyschrophiles, aka cryophiles, live in water as cold as ?20 °C, as in pockets of very salty brine surrounded by sea ice), is usefully relevant to food and pharmaceutical preservation technologies, medical technology, nanotechnology and energy science.

Ocean exploration undergoing historic transformation

Dr. Ballard and about 100 other leading figures in marine science meet Oct. 20-21 to compare thoughts on the future of marine exploration at the 2016 National Ocean Exploration Forum, “Beyond the Ships: 2020-2025,” hosted in New York by The Rockefeller University in partnership with Monmouth University. The Forum is also supported by the Monmouth-Rockefeller Marine Science and Policy Initiative, NOAA, the Schmidt Ocean Institute, and James A. Austin, Jr.

Ocean exploration has arrived at a historic hinge, Forum organizers say, with profound transformation underway thanks to new technologies, led by increasingly affordable “roboats” – autonomous or remotely controlled vehicles that dive into the ocean or ply the surface laden with sensors collecting information from instruments suspended beneath them.

ROV SuBastian, for example, is a new eco-friendly 3,100 kg (6,500 pound) deep-sea research platform for the Schmidt Ocean Institute’s R/V Falkor, equipped with ultra high-resolution 4K cameras, mechanical arms that move seven ways and can sample to depths of 4,500 meters (2.8 miles), with a lighting system equivalent to the lamps of 150 car high-beams. (SuBastian sea trials video: http://bit.ly/2dn17as; High-res photos, b-roll: http://bit.ly/2dMBeQs).

Said Wendy Schmidt, co-founder of Schmidt Ocean Institute: “With ROV SuBastian we will help make life on the ocean floor real to people who will never visit the sea, so they, too, can begin to appreciate the importance of ocean health and make the connection between life in the deep sea and life on land.”

“You don’t have to be a scientist at sea to recognize the importance of the marine environment, and we are only at the beginning of our understanding. We never anticipated discovering the world’s deepest living fish, the ghostfish (video: http://bit.ly/2cNNvSo), back in 2014, and are excited about the life we will discover next.”

ROV SuBastian will have that opportunity this December during its first science cruise, in the Mariana Back-Arc in the western Pacific. (Cruise details: http://bit.ly/2dXOMvA. All dives will be live-streamed on Schmidt Ocean Institute’s YouTube page: http://bit.ly/2dB5Neg).

Contributing as well to the transformation: Modern communications and sampling techniques, including eDNA, big data analysis and other high-tech advances that automate and vastly accelerate the work, opening the way for experts and the public to reach, see, chart, sample and monitor formerly secret depths of the seas.

Building “curious” roboats

Innovations include portable observatories for underwater monitoring and a “curious exploration robot,” programmed to focus on everything unfamiliar to its data bank brain (photo: http://bit.ly/2dXV9fz, video: http://bit.ly/2dq4eA3, credit WHOI).

According to innovator Yogesh Girdhar of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in a recent test off the Panama coast, the suitcase-sized swimming robot discovered a startlingly enormous population of crabs.

Other engineers, meanwhile, are developing “game changing” unmanned undersea and surface vehicles tricked out with an array of sophisticated sensors to perform a suite of underwater tasks, enabled to run for months by recent improvements in battery technology. (See video, for example, of Boeing’s 51-foot Echo Voyager: http://bit.ly/2crlznh).

Such “roboats” can be programmed to conduct deep sea exploration or searches using a lawn mower pattern, surfacing regularly to report data back to shore via satellite, or to patrol a coastal area, returning to port after one or two months to recharge and redeploy.

These technologies will enable today’s generation to “explore more of Planet Earth than all previous generations combined,” predicted Dr. Ballard, whose celebrated career will be recognized at the Forum with the Monmouth University Urban Coast Institute’s Champion of the Ocean award.

The technologies will not only help discover and monitor new mineral and living resources, they could help secure interests vital to the world’s economy or identify the best paths for communications cables that span the ocean floor – the veins of the Internet.

Ships transitioning to multi-vessel research hives

Until recently, ocean exploration has involved ships operated like fishing vessels, dipping sensors and hauling up data.

Forum participants such as John Kreider of Oceaneering International envision such ships in future serving as hives from which flotillas and squadrons of autonomous underwater, surface and aerial vehicles are launched – robots guided by experts on board or remotely, such as from a distant university campus via “telepresence,” returning with images and data orders of magnitude larger than ever before.

Thanks to modern communication technologies, schoolchildren, their teachers and indeed any interested members of the public can, and do, now follow expeditions online in real time.

Among the many compelling interests and pursuits of marine scientists and historians in the public, private and military sectors:

• The changing Arctic environment, including the impact on sea ice edge formation of waves on newly opened water, and by new intrusions of warm water from the neighboring Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which also disrupts Arctic Ocean water column stratification
• The discovery of rare earth and other minerals, caches of methane and new oil deposits, and new species of marine plants and animals, some of which have already led to new pharmaceuticals with high expectations of many valuable discoveries to come
• Better understanding the food chain – monitoring the distribution and abundance of marine life, finding species new-to-science, and detecting invasive or endangered species.
• eDNA (environmental DNA) techniques, a water sample can now be used to discern what species recently passed through, based on the DNA left behind in metabolic wastes, skin cells, and damaged tissues (the subject of a paper by NOAA-funded ocean explorer Shirley Pomponi. And, thanks to new acoustic techniques, marine biologists can also discern biodiversity levels on coral reefs just by listening (the subject of a paper prepared for the Forum by Jennifer L. Miksis-Olds of the University of New Hampshire and Bruce Martin, Dalhousie University, available at http://bit.ly/2dwUxzA)
• Finding historic wrecks of aircraft and ships, such as the recent discovery 2,800 feet underwater of the WWII era aircraft carrier USS Independence (photo: http://bit.ly/2d4leYD), a Bikini Atoll nuclear test target last seen when it was scuttled off San Francisco’s shores 65 years ago. Other major recent finds include the USS Conestoga, found at 200 feet depth near San Francisco, ending a 95-year military mystery about the fate of her 56-man crew; Sir John Franklin’s ships Terror and Erebus, lost while searching for the Northwest Passage; whaling ships from the 1870s found crushed off the coast of Alaska; and the skeletons of 2,000 year old mariners in waters off Greece
• Identifying the location and state of sunken nuclear materials and waste, and 20th century weaponry, including chemical nerve gas and large explosives disposed of post-war at sea. Scientists say that to this day explosions of discarded world war munitions off the coast of Europe cause occasional tremors – some equal to a magnitude 2 earthquake on the Richter scale
• Locating new ocean bottom formations, testing novel oceanographic devices, and characterizing sources of sound in a changing ocean. The result: a better chance of finding or hiding a submarine or avoiding a sea mine.

Said scientist James (Jamie) A. Austin, Jr. of the University of Texas, “the slow, time consuming and expensive way we’ve done ocean exploration forever – one ship doing one task at a time – is giving way to autonomous systems that net massive hauls of data, with advances in big data analysis enabling scientists to make sense of it rapidly.”

Dr. Austin envisions installations on the seafloor – measuring tremors or helping scientists estimate the rate at which Earth swallows carbon into its mantle through plate tectonics, for example – with data delivered by a device periodically flying up and down to the surface.

Gurgle Earth

Simply mapping the ocean floor is an important goal. While satellites have fully charted the seafloor in low resolution, only 10% is mapped in detail.

At an estimated cost of $2.9 billion – or about $9 per square kilometer ($23 per square mile) – a “Gurgle Earth” map of the deep oceans could be completed at high resolution using swath like, multi-beam sonar.

The hazard of uncharted oceanic mountains, trenches, volcanoes and other features was dramatically underscored in 2005 when a nuclear attack submarine, the USS San Francisco, struck a seamount in the Pacific at high speed, killing one crew member and injuring 97.

Over 50% of US territory lies beneath the ocean surface and such mapping could also expand American territorial and resource claims.

With documentation of the continental shelf, America’s Exclusive Economic Zone, 11.3 million square km in size today, could extend a further 2.2 million square km – a 20% enlargement, representing an underwater area larger than Alaska. (See http://bit.ly/2cTU7lG).

World’s foremost ocean discoveries

According to Dr. Ballard, key marine discoveries to date include:

• In the Galapagos Rift, hydrothermal vents, “which may well explain the origin of life on Earth”
• On the East Pacific Rise, other black smokers “which explained the chemistry of the world’s oceans and their poly-metallic sulfide deposits of copper, lead, silver, and gold”
• On the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a Lost City of carbonate chimneys towering 60 meters, “which revealed the depth of seawater circulation into the earth”
• Along the continental margins of the world massive methane seeps, “that were not included in our modelling of global change”
• In the Black Sea, highly preserved wooden ships, “which showed that the deep sea is the largest museum on earth,” and
• Near Newfoundland, the RMS Titanic, “which created a massive interest in the history of the human race hidden beneath the sea.”

Other recent finds of ancient shipwrecks and even ancient human remains, he adds, reveal that early mariners didn’t simply hug the coastline but sailed courageously great distances from shore, and make it possible to determine who they were.

While these and countless biological discoveries represent things discovered underwater, the intent of future exploration campaigns include measuring more, sampling more, and better understanding physical, geological and living processes – knowledge of vital importance for security, responsible ocean use and sustainable resource management.

Asked what he thought might yet be discovered underwater, Dr. Ballard compared that to asking Lewis or Clark what they thought they’d find on their historic traverse of America. The reply, he said, would have been “I don’t know. I’m getting into a canoe and I’m going to paddle.”

In one of several papers written for the Forum, meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador Cameron Hume added that, beyond exploring and the initial characterization of an ocean area, humanity also needs to pursue subsequent research and long-term observing.

In his paper, Dr. Jerry Schubel of the Aquarium of the Pacific, lamenting the relatively low level of public attention accorded to ocean exploration, pointed to new opportunities for awareness raising created by social media.

“Understanding life on other planets,” he said, “may help us understand the origins of life in the universe, but it can’t match the relevance and importance of ocean exploration to the future of life on this planet.”

Hidden in the seas: A million unknown species, a million shipwrecks

Says organizer Prof. Jesse Ausubel, faculty member at The Rockefeller University: “SuBastian and the Roboats sounds like a rock band, but it is the future of ocean exploration. One million marine species and one million shipwrecks may remain to be discovered. Let’s use new approaches to multiply exploration.”

According to Forum organizer Vice Admiral Paul Gaffney, former President of Monmouth University and Urban Coast Institute Ocean Policy Fellow, “America is the greatest maritime nation in the history of the world, yet we scarcely know submerged America and only about 10% of the global oceans. At this Forum, we are encouraging ocean technology leaders to join the discussion and support more comprehensive exploration campaigns indispensable for sustainable use of the oceans and inspiring ocean stewardship.”

The Forum will use three example priority ocean exploration areas to flesh out new ideas:

• the Southeast US Atlantic Bight
• the Gulf of Mexico and
• the Arctic

The ultimate aim: to formulate compelling, feasible campaigns to be carried out by the participants in the 2020-2025 timeframe.

At the Forum, Dr. Jyotika Virmani will share the roster of teams for the $7 million Shell Ocean Discovery XPRIZE, a global competition to promote unmanned ocean exploration.

NAS President: new technologies can open “citizen science era of ocean exploration”

In a letter to the Forum, the President of the US National Academy of Sciences, famed ocean explorer Marcia McNutt, says “a number of events have underscored how essential our mission is to vastly improve knowledge of the marine environment.”

Inadequate knowledge of ocean terrain and currents hampered the search for flight MH 370 in 2014, for example.

CubeSats, she noted, have “‘democratized’ space, providing access for pennies on the dollar. Similarly, new commercial tools, although still in their infancy, hold the promise of ushering in the citizen science era of ocean exploration.”

“The task we face is simply too large to continue to use 20th century tools if we hope to make a dent in the problem.”

By Seyyed Reza Ghazvini Ghorabi*

Relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been characterized with serious ups and downs during the past week. Media outlets have been reporting new developments in these relations on an almost daily basis, the result of which is expected to be less cordiality in the two countries’ relations.

It was just last week when Egypt voted positive for a United Nations resolution proposed by Russia on the situation in Syria. This measure actually amounted to adding fuel to the fire of relations between Cairo and Riyadh, which had already seen enough tension during recent weeks. The first reaction to the measure taken by Egypt in this regard was shown by Saudi Arabia’s permanent ambassador to the UN, Abdullah al-Moallemi. While indirectly criticizing Cairo, al-Moallemi expressed regret that positions taken on Syria by Malaysia and Senegal were closer to Saudi Arabia’s position on this issue than that of Egypt. It was then that Saudi Arabia started to make new decisions, which smacked of vengeance in order to revenge Egypt’s measure.

Saudi Arabia cuts oil exports to Egypt

Less than 24 hours after Egypt voted positive for Russia’s UN resolution on Syria at the Security Council, Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Aramco, announced that it had reached a decision to halt oil exports to Egypt for the month of October. According to a five-year contract, which has been estimated to be worth 23 billion dollars, Saudi Arabia has been committed to exporting 700,000 tonnes of oil derivatives to Egypt.

Egypt has been suffering from shortage of fuel for a long time and the recent measure taken by Saudi Arabia has been undoubtedly aimed at mounting economic pressure on the North African country. Although Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, president of Egypt, has ruled out this issue as the main reason behind Saudi Arabia’s cutoff of fuel exports to his country, the reason behind Riyadh’s decision is quite clear.

Moscow and Cairo get closer than ever before

At the same time, media outlets reported that Egypt and Russia were planning to stage joint marine maneuvers with Moscow requesting the Egyptian government to establish a temporary military base in that country. This development proved that relations between the two countries were rapidly expanding and the vote given to Russia’s resolution by Cairo has not been an accident or a transient measure.

In addition, there are reports, which show that Russia’s special forces have been training Egypt’s military and security forces since last year. All these developments have served to enrage Riyadh as a result of which Riyadh has recalled its ambassador from Cairo to clearly show that it is not satisfied with the status quo and seeks to downgrade its relations with Cairo.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt cancel bilateral flights

In addition to the aforesaid developments, the two countries have been locking horns in the transportation sector as well. Saudi Arabia has already called off a number of flights to and from Egypt under the excuse that there are not enough passengers to justify the flights, while the Egyptian side has not remained idle either and has taken retaliatory measures against Saudi Arabia.

The claim raised by Riyadh about Cairo flights not being economical cannot be accepted though. This is true because a large number of Egyptian laborers and businesspeople are working in Saudi Arabia and, on the other hand, Saudi tourists are very willing to travel to Egypt. As a result, cancellation of bilateral flights can cause problems for transportation of the two countries’ nationals.

Hajj, Saudi Arabia’s political pressure leverage

Since a while ago, Saudi Arabia had increased the price of visa for implementing the minor Hajj pilgrimage for the nationals of a few countries, including Egypt, to an unprecedented level. This measure, which had elicited Egyptian side’s objection since its introduction, finally culminated in unilateral stoppage of the minor Hajj by the Egyptian side.

Since Iran and Morocco had already announced that their citizens would not attend the minor Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, thus depriving the kingdom of relevant revenues, the measure taken by Egypt was aimed to further increase economic pressure on Saudi Arabia. According to Egypt’s al-Youm al-Sabi’ news website, the decision made by Cairo would save the country about six billion dollars, which would be great news as Egypt has been already grappling with a major foreign exchange crisis.

All told, the recent rise in tension between the two countries cannot be simply attributed to the measure taken by Egypt at the UN Security Council. Relations between the two countries have been marked with serious oscillations during the past two years. Of course, after Saudi Arabia’s King Salman ascended to the throne, relations between Riyadh and Cairo turned totally cordial, but it is clear that Sisi’s foreign policy stances, his effort to get close to Russians, and his viewpoints on the future of Syria and the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad have played an important part in causing tension in the two countries’ relations.

There is a long list of measures taken by Cairo, which are considered by Riyadh as a stab in the back, and as a result of which Saudi Arabia is now trying to take revenge on Egypt. The list includes presence of a high-ranking Egyptian delegation in an anti-Wahhabi conference in Grozny, which is the capital city of the Chechen Republic; abrogation of a contract according to which Egypt had transferred control of Sanafir and Tiran islands to Saudi Arabia; Saudi Arabia’s failure to fulfill its commitments toward Egypt, including construction of a causeway over the Gulf of Aqaba; Egypt’s opposition to overthrow of Syria’s Assad; Cairo’s reluctance for sending troops to Yemen war and rumors about Egypt’s indirect support for the Houthi fighters in Yemen; relative closeness between Iran and Egypt, especially a meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers in New York; and quite recently, appointment of Cairo’s new charge d’affaires to Tehran.

A few days ago and without mentioning Saudi Arabia by name, Egypt’s President Sisi noted that Egypt sought to have independent positions and would submit to no one but God, and his remarks drew strong support from Egyptian people and media. It seems that no prospect can be imagined for cessation of the current crisis in the two countries’ relations yet, especially taking into account that the behavior and measures taken by both countries show that none of them seeks to calm the situation. So, we must wait and see how far this tension in Cairo’s relations with Riyadh will go.

*Seyyed Reza Ghazvini Ghorabi, Middle East Analyst

Source: Khorasan newspaper

“For any minimally conscious American citizen, it is absolutely evident that Donald Trump is not only facing the mammoth Clinton political machine, but, also the combined forces of the viciously dishonest Mainstream Media.” — Boyd D. Cathey, “The Tape, the Conspiracy, and the Death of the Old Politics”, Unz Review

“The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary.” — Donald Trump, Twitter

When was the last time the media threw 100% of its support behind one party’s presidential candidate? What does that say about the media?

Do you feel comfortable with the idea that a handful of TV and print-news executives are inserting themselves into the process and choosing our leaders for us? Is that the way democracy is supposed to work?

Check out this blurb from The Hill:

“The broadcast evening news programs ABC, NBC and CBS covered allegations against Trump by several women who claim he sexually assaulted them for more than 23 minutes on Thursday night. But revelations in the WikiLeaks dump of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta which included…sympathy for Wall Street, advocation for open borders and blatant examples of media collusion ….got a whole 1 minute and 7 seconds combined.”

Ratio of negative coverage of Trump to Clinton: 23:1

In print on Thursday, it was no better. The New York Times had 11 negative stories on Trump…But zero on Clinton/WikiLeaks.

Ratio: 11:0.” (Media and Trump bias; Not even trying to hide it anymore, The Hill)

The article in The Hill also refers to a survey by the Washington Post and ABC News that asks participants six questions about allegations of sexual misconduct by Trump, but zero questions about Podesta’s incriminating emails.

Is that what you call “balance”?

I should state out-front, that I don’t plan to vote for either candidate, Trump or Clinton, so my claims of “bias” are not grounded in support for one candidate or the other. I am simply ticked-off by the fact that the media honchos have pulled out all the stops and are inserting themselves in the process to produce the outcome they want.

That’s what you call “rigging” an election. When you turn on Washington Week (Gwen Ifil) on public TV and see an assembled panel of six pundits–three conservatives and three liberals–and all six turn out to love Hillary and hate Trump; you can be reasonably certain that the election is rigged, because that’s what rigging is. Rather than providing background information about the candidate’s position on the issues so voters can make an informed decision, the media uses opinionmakers to heap praise on one candidate while savagely denigrating the other. The obvious goal is to shape public opinion in the way that best suits the interests of the people who own the media and who belong to the establishment of rich and powerful elites who run the country, the 1 percent. In this case, the ruling class unanimously backs Hillary Clinton, that much is obvious.

Fortunately, the tide is turning on the mainstream media as people look to other, more reliable sources for their information. It should come as no surprise that people are more distrustful of media than ever before and that that a great many feel that the media is conducting a brutal class war against ordinary working people. Surely, anyone who has followed economic developments at all in the last seven years, knows that the policies of the Fed have created a yawning chasm between rich and poor that is only getting worse as long as the levers of power stay in the hands of establishment politicians. Hillary Clinton is certainly the worst of these establishment politicos. Aside from being the most widely-reviled candidate the Democrats have ever nominated, she is the embodiment of political corruption and cronyism. How is it, you may ask, that someone like Clinton was able to nab “upwards of $225,000 per speech” from Goldman Sachs if she wasn’t influence peddling?

Does it really matter what she said in these speeches?

Not to me. The huge sums of money prove beyond any reasonable doubt that Clinton is selling access, tacitly agreeing to “go easy” on the big Wall Street investment banks provided they keep her foundation’s coffers overflowing. What other possible explanation could there be?

Do as many Americans know about Hillary’s sordid dealings with Wall Street as know about Trump’s “alleged” sexual dalliances?

Of course not. It’s not even close.

Do they know that Clinton was the driving force behind the intervention in Libya and Syria, where hundreds of thousands of civilians have died and seven million have been internally displaced? Do they know she was involved in the toppling of a democratically-elected government in Honduras or that a number of prominent neocons, who dragged the US into war in Iraq based on WMD lies, now support her?

Nope.

Do people know that Hillary had proof that ISIS –America’s arch enemy– was being funded and supported by our allies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and, yet, she never reported the news to the American people??

Here’s a damning clip from one of the Podesta emails:

“We need to use our diplomatic and more traditional intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to Isis and other radical groups in the region.”

Remember when George W. Bush said that ‘We will treat the terrorists and the people who support the terrorists the same”?

Hillary must not have gotten that memo or we would have bombed Riyadh by now.

Do people know that there has never been a war that Hillary didn’t support, a job-killing “free trade” bill she didn’t back, or a civil liberties-eviscerating piece of legislation (Clinton voted for the original USA PATRIOT Act in 2001, as well as the revised version in 2006.) she wasn’t eager to sign?

Oh, but she does support “women’s reproductive rights” which makes her a big champion of personal freedom among her narrow demographic of successful, educated, white women. Excuse me, for not doing handstands.

Here’s another short clip from the WSWS:

“Hillary and Bill Clinton have accumulated a total of $153 million in speaking fees since Bill Clinton left the White House. Only the very naïve could believe that these vast sums were paid for the speeches themselves. They were payment for services rendered to the American financial aristocracy over a protracted period.” (In secret Goldman Sachs speeches, Clinton explains why the rich should rule, World socialist Web Site)

Get the picture? Hillary Clinton isn’t a candidate, she’s a franchise, a walking ATM machine. And her shady Foundation is nothing more than a vast recycling bin for illicit funds that pour into the political sausage-making machine in the form of contributions and magically transform themselves into special favors for the billionaire class.

Is the system rigged?

You’re damn right it is! Check this out from Zero Hedge under the heading of “73% Of Republicans Say Election Could Be “Stolen” As Trump Slams “Rigged Elections”:

“A Politico/Morning Consult Poll found that 41% of registered voters say that the election cold be stolen from Trump while 73% of Republicans fear the same.

The American electorate has turned deeply skeptical about the integrity of the nation’s election apparatus, with 41 percent of voters saying November’s election could be “stolen” from Donald Trump due to widespread voter fraud.

The new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — conducted among 1,999 registered voters Oct. 13 through Oct. 15 — shows that Trump’s repeated warnings about a “rigged” election are having effect: 73 percent of Republicans think the election could be swiped from him. Just 17 percent of Democrats agree with the prospect of massive fraud at the ballot box.” (Zero Hedge)

Should we be worried about the election being rigged? Should we be concerned that a significant number of Americans no longer trust the “integrity of the electoral process”?

And how are these allegations (that the election was stolen) going to impact Hillary’s ability to govern?

It’s going to impact it dramatically, in fact, it could stop her dead in her tracks. It could even precipitate a Constitutional crisis. And that’s where all this is headed, isn’t it?

Consider this: Maybe Trump isn’t really trying to win any more. Maybe he knows he can’t overcome a 12 point deficit this late in the game, so he’s going to pull a Samson. He’s going to shake the pillars and bring the whole rotten temple crashing down around him. He’s going use all his influence to discredit this fake democratic system the elites have painstakingly put together to control the public, he’s going to grow his throng of angry supporters into a small army, and he’s going to spearhead a (mainly) right wing populist movement that is going impose gridlock on Washington, deepen the political divisions, acrimony and polarization across the country, and make Clinton’s tenure as president a living hell.

That’s the gameplan. He’s going to marshal enough grassroots support that Clinton will spend her entire four years bogged down in endless investigations, fending off charges of criminal misconduct, and leap-frogging from one seedy scandal to the next.

No, Trump isn’t planning on winning. He doesn’t want to be president. He wants to be a modern-day Braveheart leading the peasants into battle against a thoroughly-corrupt and heinous ruling class establishment. That’s what he wants, and that’s why political has-beens like Gingrich and Giuliani have attached themselves to him like the plague. They see an opening for resurrecting their own dismal careers.

In any event, Hillary’s going to win the election, that’s for sure. But don’t count Trump out just yet. He’s just getting warmed up.

Vladimir Putin is seeking to do something that has eluded Muslim leaders for more than 1400 years and that even Stalin didn’t try: his government is seeking to reduce or even eliminate divisions among the four legal schools of Sunni Islam and create in their stead a uniquely Russian unified Muslim faith.

But Muslim leaders are already warning that their faith not only generally but in Russia in particular is inherently pluralist and that such efforts to create a single dogmatic version of Sunni Islam in the country – and as in the world as a whole, about 90 percent of Russia’s Muslims are Sunnis – will backfire (islamrf.ru/news/russia/rusopinions/40551/).

Not only are Muslims divided between the Sunnis, who are subdivided in the four legal schools, and the Shiites, but they are also divided between these traditions and Sufism, a trend that seeks individual unity with the divine. Sometimes these have been in sharp conflict, even when most of their adepts say they share many common views.

Within the Muslim umma in Russia, the basic divide is between the Sunni Muslims of the more liberal Hanafi school which dominate the community in the Middle Volga and the Sufis and Sunnis of the far stricter Hanbali school which predominate in the North Caucasus. That distinction been intensified since 1991 by the arrival of Hanbali missionaries in both areas.

Because of these differences and because Islam lacks both a clergy and a clerical hierarchy which could decide on the policy of the community as a whole, the Russian state has traditionally had to recognize that there are multiple centers of the umma in that country rather than only one, however much some Russian leaders would like to have a single vertical.

Periodically and especially under Putin, Moscow has tried to promote unity even if it recognizes how difficult that will be and also how problematic the achievement of that end could be for a regime that in this as in so many other areas depends on the imperial principle of “divide and conquer.”

This week, there were two developments that suggest the Kremlin is prepared to expand its push, the convention in Moscow of a conference entitled “The Unity of Islam is the Unity of Muslims” devoted to reducing or eliminating differences among the four legal schools, and the appointment of Sergey Kiriyenko as first deputy head of the Presidential Administration.

What the Kremlin hopes for from the Moscow meeting was underscored by a message of greeting from Igor Barinov, the head of the Federal Agency for Nationality Affairs

(islamrf.ru/news/analytics/point-of-view/40552/). What Kiriyenko’s appointment is likely to mean is discussed in “NG-Religii” today (ng.ru/ng_religii/2016-10-19/1_challenges.html).

In his message, Barinov stressed that “the rapprochement of the maskhabs is an issue which has not lost its importance either internationally or within [Russia] … it is not a short-term campaign but a long-term strategy which must prevent the threat of the clash of civilizations and become the first step toward their cooperation and partnership.”

More significant, although completely consistent with this is what Artur Priimak writes about Kiriyenko. Most commentators have treated him as “a typical ‘effective manager,’” given his earlier service as prime minister and presidential plenipotentiary in the Middle Volga Federal District.

But while he was in that position, Kiriyenko associated himself with and helped promote the project of “’Russian Islam’” that was developed and pushed by two political technologists, Petr Shchedrovitsky and Sergey Gadirovsky. (For a discussion of their views and activities, see kurginyan.ru/books/radical_islam.pdf.)

He promoted the development of the Hanafi rite in the Middle Volga, the use of Russian in the mosques of the Russian Federation, and even the idea that Russia should rest on two civilizations, Orthodox Christian and Muslim. To that end, Kiriyenko did what he could to promote unity within the Muslim community.

If the Kremlin follows through on what this week’s meeting appears to suggest, Kiriyenko will likely play a key role in that, something that could profoundly affect not only the balance within the umma of the Russian Federation between the Middle Volga and the North Caucasus but between Islam and Orthodox Christianity.

And to the extent that happens, the new man in the Presidential Administration is likely to be far more than the simple “effective manager” many now expect him to be.

With the Nov. 8 election approaching, the Knights of Columbus have released a novena addressed to Mary, the Immaculate Conception, who is the patroness of the United States.

The novena consists of nine days of prayer, starting Oct. 30 and running through Nov. 7, the eve of the election.

In 1791, America’s first bishop, John Carroll, entrusted his diocese – which was the entire country at the time – to Mary in 1791. The U.S. bishops affirmed that dedication in 1846, declaring Mary the Immaculate Conception to be patroness of the United States.

The novena prayer comes from the 1959 dedication of the Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception in Washington, D.C. It was approved that year by Cardinal Patrick O’Boyle, then-archbishop of Washington.

Parishes, Knights of Columbus councils, families and individuals are invited to participate in the novena.

“The Church teaches that Catholics are called to form their consciences based on Church teaching and vote in accordance with that well-formed conscience,” said Knights of Columbus CEO Carl Anderson.

“Pope Francis has said in reference to the U.S. election that we should ‘study the proposals well, pray and choose with your conscience,’ and this novena is designed to help Catholic Americans do that.”

The text of the novena reads:

Most Holy Trinity: Our Father in Heaven, who chose Mary as the fairest of your daughters; Holy Spirit, who chose Mary as your Spouse; God the Son, who chose Mary as your Mother, in union with Mary we adore your majesty and acknowledge your supreme, eternal dominion and authority.

Most Holy Trinity, we put the United States of America into the hands of Mary Immaculate in order that she may present the country to you. Through her we wish to thank you for the great resources of this land and for the freedom which has been its heritage.

Through the intercession of Mary, have mercy on the Catholic Church in America. Grant us peace. Have mercy on our president and on all the officers of our government. Grant us a fruitful economy, born of justice and charity. Have mercy on capital and industry and labor. Protect the family life of the nation. Guard the precious gift of many religious vocations. Through the intercession of our Mother, have mercy on the sick, the tempted, sinners — on all who are in need.

Mary, Immaculate Virgin, our Mother, Patroness of our land, we praise you and honor you and give ourselves to you. Protect us from every harm. Pray for us, that acting always according to your will and the will of your divine Son, we may live and die pleasing to God. Amen.

The Chinese government should immediately free Swedish bookseller Gui Minhai, who disappeared from Thailand a year ago and reappeared in custody in China, Human Rights Watch said. The Chinese government has provided little information about the enforced disappearances and detentions of Gui and four other bookseller colleagues in Thailand, Hong Kong, and China.

“A full year has gone by, yet all that’s clear is that Chinese authorities have grossly violated the rights of the five booksellers both within and outside China’s borders,” said Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch. “China’s willingness to snatch people in Thailand and Hong Kong with the apparent involvement of their governments adds to the concerns.”

Gui Minhai, who co-owns the Hong Kong Mighty Current publishing house, which issues books about mainland political intrigues, went missing from Pattaya, Thailand, on October 17, 2015. In mid-January, CCTV, China’s state television network, broadcast a “confession” by Gui in which he said he had returned voluntarily to the mainland to face charges related to a 2003 drunk-driving incident. Subsequent state media reports said Gui was being investigated for other unspecified “criminal activities,” and that others have been investigated in connection with him. Swedish diplomats have been allowed two brief visits with Gui. Neither his family nor the Swedish government has been informed of any formal charges against him, nor the formal place of his detention, rendering him forcibly disappeared.

Enforced disappearances are defined under international law as the arrest or detention of a person by state officials or their agents followed by a refusal to acknowledge the deprivation of liberty, or to reveal the person’s fate or whereabouts. Enforced disappearances violate a range of fundamental human rights protected under international law, including prohibitions against arbitrary arrest and detention; torture and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment; and extrajudicial execution. Disappearances are a continuing offense that cause anguish and suffering for the victim’s family members.

Following Gui’s abduction in Thailand, four other staff members of the Causeway Bay Bookstore, owned by Mighty Current, also went missing between October and December 2015. One, British national Lee Po, disappeared from Hong Kong. Although his travel documents remained in Hong Kong, Lee later resurfaced in China, saying that he had gone there voluntarily “using his own methods” in order to “cooperate in a judicial investigation.” Three other booksellers and Hong Kong residents – Lui Por, Cheung Chi Ping, and Lam Wing Kee – were detained in the mainland. These booksellers have since been released; only Gui remains detained in China.

On June 16, 2016, one of the booksellers, Lam Wing Kee, held a news conference in Hong Kong revealing details about his detention in China. He said the authorities interrogated him about the publisher’s operations, including information about the books’ authors and readers, and forced him to read from a scripted “confession.”

In general, the circumstances surrounding the abductions and detentions of Gui Minhai and Lee Po remain unclear. The Thai government said, in January 2016, that it had no record of Gui leaving the territory. Although Hong Kong government officials have met with mainland Chinese officials about the booksellers’ case, neither has publicly explained whether Lee was abducted from Hong Kong. Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung had said that it would be “unacceptable for mainland law enforcement to operate in Hong Kong” because it “violates the Basic Law,” the territory’s functional constitution. Yet Leung has never clarified whether any mainland security agents operate in Hong Kong.

The Causeway Bay booksellers were not the first to be targeted by mainland authorities for their sale of politically opinionated books in Hong Kong, Human Rights Watch said. In May 2014, Yao Wentian, 75, chief editor of Morning Bell Press, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for “smuggling” in Shenzhen. In July 2016, Wang Jianmin, a US citizen and editor of magazines Multiple Face and New-Way Monthly, was sentenced to five years in prison in Shenzhen for “operating an illegal business,” together with his associate Guo Zhongxiao.

A dozen governments have publicly condemned the Chinese government for the booksellers’ case, including a 12-country joint statement delivered at the Human Rights Council in March, as well as a European Parliament resolution adopted in February.

“Although the booksellers’ case has generated considerable condemnation from foreign governments, none has imposed meaningful consequences on Beijing for its arbitrary arrests of foreign citizens,” Richardson said. “This failure to do so may only embolden the Chinese government.”

Two Syrian men arrested in Geneva last year amid a hunt for terrorists are set to receive financial compensation for wrongful arrest. The case against them has been officially closed.

The two men were arrested by police in December 2015 accused of traces of explosives found in their car. In January 2015, the Attorney General dropped the investigation as the original suspicion was not confirmed. The men were freed at the end of January after spending 50 days in custody.

The case has now been officially closed, and according to the official document from the Attorney General’s Office, dated September 16, the two men will receive financial compensation for moral damages.

One man will receive CHF11,000 ($11,100) and the other CHF12,500, the Swiss News Agency reported, confirming an earlier report in the Tribune de Genève and Tages-Anzeiger newspapers. All of their legal costs will be reimbursed by the federal authorities.

On December 12, the two men, who had valid Syrian passports, were stopped by Geneva police and arrested after traces of explosives were found in their car. Criminal proceedings were opened against the two under a law prohibiting groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State. They denied having criminal intent and said they had only just arrived in Geneva and recently acquired the car.

The case was closed as ‘the original suspicion was not confirmed’, the attorney-general’s office said in a statement in January.

At the time of their arrest last year, one month after the Paris terror attacks, Geneva was on high alert after a suspicious Belgian-registered vehicle fled from a late-night police check and crossed the border into France, and foreign authorities sent a tip about a suspected Islamic State cell in the region.

By Josh White*

(EurActiv) — Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear she wants to hold a second independence referendum. The prospect of Scotland breaking away from the Union was predicted by many Remain commentators. Ironically, the nationalist core of the Leave vote could responsible for the end of the United Kingdom. Brexit opened the door to the unknown, and we are now drifting through unchartered territory.

Unlike the majority of the English left, I was sceptical of Scottish independence during the 2014 referendum campaign. Not that I romanticise the Union, or doubt the capacity of the Scottish people to run their own affairs. Nor do I buy into the suspect argument that the Scots have been saving the English from themselves. On the contrary, the Scottish ruling class was a participant in British capitalism and imperialism for centuries. The history of Protestant Scottish reaction is somewhat inconvenient for the nationalist mythology.

In fact, Scottish history has many features we would recognise as English. The rise of empiricism and free-market economics are a part of the Scottish Enlightenment. At the same time, the Scottish ruling class joined the Union on the side of British imperialism after its own failed attempt at colonialism. The basis for Scottish nationalism may have been laid by the emergence of a working-class out of the Highland clearances, as well as Irish Catholic immigration.

Yet it was only with the end of empire and social democracy that the SNP can come to power. As part of the New Labour project, Tony Blair devolved power in Scotland to allow for greater self-government. This was intended to be a concession given Scotland’s place in Labour Party history. Instead, the opening was the beginning of the end for Scottish Labour. Nationalism took hold as Labour went into decline after the Brown years.

Of course, Scottish independence could be a great opportunity for market forces. The power of monetary policy may still be held by Westminster and this could constrain any independent government in its policies. Likewise, it would be possible for corporations to hold the state to ransom – threatening to divest the fledgling economy – to cut taxes and spending. A race to the bottom between England and Scotland could follow.

The cause of Scottish independence has since become a conduit for the hopes of leftists. “Freedom!” cried the SNP. “We’re with you!” the English left shouted back. They were soon echoed by Welsh and Irish socialists. Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru were jubilant at the possibility of an independent Scotland. The death of the Union would redeem the aspirations of Irish republicans and Welsh nationalists. It would also mean a historic crisis for the British establishment.

A rupture with the past could force a constitutional crisis in Westminster, whereby a whole series of questions would have to be answered. The Prime Minister would have to resign, and the ruling party may be forced from office by the following election. People often say this would guarantee a Conservative majority, but it would actually mean more boundary changes. Likewise, it would also open up a space for much-needed devolution within England. It could even serve to jump-start the debate on electoral reform.

Today’s political situation seems to vindicate the progressive arguments for Scottish independence. Brexit has thrown into question the future trajectory of the UK, and the Conservative government is in the driving seat. Meanwhile, the majority of Scottish people wanted to stay in the European Union. The second vote is potentially a necessary intervention to push back against the reactionary forces mobilised by Brexit.

The Union has done much to preserve and entrench inequality in Scotland, where the richest 10% have 273 times as much wealth than the poorest 10%. The richest 100 men and women increased their wealth from £18 billion to £21 billion in 2012. While 60% of the country is owned by less than 1,000 people. This is why many Scottish socialists see a radical case for independence. It would end the centuries old holding action over class society.

It has been suggested that Sturgeon really just wants to force Theresa May to keep Britain in the single market. After all, the price of oil no longer favours independence, and the eurozone crisis makes the euro an unlikely replacement for the pound (even with the recent loss of value). There may be a cautious wing of the SNP, which fears it could lose a second referendum. But this is a cynical reading. It’s certainly the case that the party’s base wants out.

A second referendum would be a high-risk strategy for securing a soft Brexit. Sturgeon would be in danger of jeopardising the SNP’s future if the vote were just a ploy. It’s not wise to play chicken, and Sturgeon is anything but an unwise woman. She is one of the few serious figures in UK politics right now. It wouldn’t surprise many observers if the SNP got its second vote and won. Though it is conceivable that the Conservatives would try to avoid this at all costs.

The May government is working hard to avoid certain disaster. May could try to quell the SNP threat with greater funding or autonomy, however, the real issue is still Europe. In the end, the Conservatives might be forced to face their own internal divisions by the Scottish government. Staying in the single market would placate the SNP, but it could trigger a Tory rebellion on the backbenches. Chaos is a real possibility for the UK government.

*Josh White is Associate Editor of Souciant.com where this article previously appeared.

By Todd Royal

The MENA region is in shambles, as Iranian proxy-wars, and other conflicts dominate Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Mali, and Egypt, along with the possibility of a Palestinian civil war around the corner. Recently, the US Navy has defended itself from missile strikes by Houthi rebels, backed by Iran off Yemen’s coast. The P5+1 Iran nuclear deal, or treaty, was a gross dereliction of duty by all countries involved in the negotiations. The Republican-controlled US Congress, for doing absolutely nothing to exercise its constitutional control over implementation, also holds blame along with the Germans and French.

We still live in a world where the U.S. is the sole superpower, though reluctantly under President Obama, and someone has to lead. Unfortunately, and with dire consequences, President Obama chose to believe the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism and negotiate a partial stop to their nuclear weapons program.

This agreement/treaty, which was supposed to be the dawn of a new era for Iran – the cradle of civilization – instead, has only emboldened Russia to now threaten the U.S. and world with nuclear war. It has also emboldened the Chinese to become more insistent on their crackdown of domestic freedom of speech, to cast aside international law in the South China Sea, and to raise tensions with the Japanese.

And the Chinese are sitting idly by while their proxy – the North Koreans – are drawing near to testing another nuclear weapon. Negotiating with the Iranians has done nothing but embolden bad actors across the globe, actors that only understand military strength, crippling economic sanctions, deterrence, and forceful balance of power. Even the once staunch western ally, the Philippines, now openly mocks the U.S. and looks to improve ties with the Chinese. When tiny, inconsequential countries mock the U.S., EU, and NATO those are problems that can’t be solved unless something changes with the above entities’ weakness on the world stage.

The Iran nuclear deal, led by President Obama, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and current Secretary of State John Kerry was built upon lies, and unfathomable, naïve weakness. Hillary Clinton in 2008 nailed it when she stated that Barack Obama’s foreign policy was “naïve.” In the new book: “The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles and the Secret Deals that Reshaped the Middle East,” by Wall Street Journal Chief foreign correspondent, details the inept schmoozing, sordid details and unbelievable danger the U.S. and the world is now in since this agreement has been implemented.

The Iranians, the Russians, and Chinese torched the U.S., led by President Obama at the negotiating table, and pacifist Germany laughed all the way to the bank. Business is booming with the Iranians, and now weaker Iran and other foes have been led to believe that nothing will stand in their way to whatever it is they want to accomplish in their neighborhoods, and the world stage.

The post-WWII order, established and led by the U.S., is now dead. In its place is a multi-polar world that no one knows where is headed – but actually men such as Angelo Codevilla predicted in his book Character of Nation exactly what will take place.

Mr. Codevilla saw a world where America will not come to the world’s rescue, and at that point all bets are off from World War III happening. Mr. Codevilla believes the West will cave to Islamists, Russia, an abrasive China, along with Mexico on the southern US border – all in the name of peace. Not a hard-fought peace, like that which was won in WWII, which has endured for over seventy years, but one not unlike the book by Phillip K. Dick, The Man in the High Castle where Germany and Japan divided the world up after winning WWII.

If the Iranians develop a nuclear weapon, the Russians become more belligerent and the Japanese and Chinese start a shooting war in the East China Sea what happens next? The Iranians aren’t going anywhere, and now are flush with post-sanction relief money. According to General Martin Dempsey, the former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, he has openly opined about needing to invade the Iranians, because the deal with them only made them more, not less hostile towards peace-loving nations.

We’ve witnessed what happened when the US pulled out of Iraq, and now world economies are beginning to greatly slow down, and not recover from the 2008 financial crisis. This is because of the retreat on the world stage by the U.S., Britain, NATO, and other former allies. But the question to ask is who will lead the world unless the Americans lead it? This questions was forcefully and eloquently asked by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Prime Minister of Denmark and Secretary-General of NATO in a Wall Street Journal editorial where he pleads with America to once again lead the world, and not make dangerous deals with maniacal Islamic fatalists.

This P5+1 agreement was built on lies, ego-driven-nihilism for the sake of presidential legacies, and the need to have peace at all costs while denying human nature, ideology, and the history of the Iranian regime. The Iranians have been two-bit bullies since the Islamists took over that country. While certain segments of Islam are peaceful, and even poetic in their nature, that never was the Iranians.

Why President Obama led the coalition to negotiate with Iran is still a mystery. But it isn’t a mystery to know that they aren’t backing down, and they certainly aren’t leaving the world or petroleum stage anytime soon. They now know that they have backed the U.S., EU and NATO into a corner. Impotent Western governments believing terrorism is the new norm; a US presidential election based upon sexual harassment; and an agreement that even the Socialist French thought was horrible – it all only spells disaster for the world.

The wild card is the Saudis. Now that Afghanistan is in play for the Iranians and Saudis, and oil prices aren’t reaching $100 barrel this year or next, what will the Saudis try to accomplish moving forward? It’s publicly known they are changing their economy into a 21^st century one, and not its current model based mainly on petro-dollars. That’s a good thing, but the eerie part is where will they turn as the Iranians become stronger and more adventurous?

More than likely, the Saudis will turn to the Israelis to purchase nuclear weapons in the near future now that there is a détente between the Egyptians, Saudis, and Israelis over the transfer of the Tiran and Sanfir islands to the Saudis by the Egyptians. Though initially blocked in Egyptian court, it is believed the Egyptian parliament will approve the transfer to gain a three-country strategic balance of power against the Iranians.

Western sophisticates and real-world political strategists such as Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi believe war is impossible to one and a means to an ends for the others. Man’s nature never changes, but remains unforgiving of past aggression and irrational in structure. Appeasement with thugs is only seen as timidity to be used to crush weaker nations. The reciprocity the P5+1 which was thought to be gained from the Iranians has done the exact opposite: made madmen into believers that the weak can take on the strong, and win, while being celebrated on the world stage by the disciples of Neville Chamberlin.

This article was published at Geopolitical Monitor.com

A US-based Hindu group has welcomed the Netherlands Ministry of Defense’s reported move to train their soldiers in yoga to effectively handle stressful situations and process traumatic experiences; and are urging all world military establishments to undertake yoga programs.

Reports suggest that yoga teachers will train some Netherlands armed forces personnel to be yoga instructors with the goal that they will ultimately train and provide opportunity to every army-air force-navy soldier to practice yoga.

Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada today, termed it as a step in the positive direction to make yoga available to Netherlands’ soldiers.

Yoga, referred as “a living fossil”, was a mental and physical discipline, for everybody to share and benefit from, whose traces went back to around 2,000 BCE to Indus Valley civilization, Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, noted.

Rajan Zed further said that yoga, although introduced and nourished by Hinduism, was a world heritage and liberation powerhouse to be utilized by all. According to Patanjali who codified it in Yoga Sutra, yoga was a methodical effort to attain perfection, through the control of the different elements of human nature, physical and psychical.

According to US National Institutes of Health, yoga may help one to feel more relaxed, be more flexible, improve posture, breathe deeply, and get rid of stress. According to a “2016 Yoga in America Study”, about 37 million Americans (which included many celebrities) now practice yoga; and yoga is strongly correlated with having a positive self image. Yoga was the repository of something basic in the human soul and psyche, Zed added.

The draft ‘Counter Terrorism Act’ (CTA) – intended to replace the ‘Prevention of Terrorism Act’ (PTA), widely condemned as one of the main causes of serious human rights violations in Sri Lanka – would significantly widen the scope of repressive powers.

By the Sri Lanka Campaign for Peace and Justice*

Over the weekend, a draft framework copy of the ‘Counter Terrorism Act’ (CTA) – the legislation intended to replace the draconian ‘Prevention of Terrorism Act’ (PTA) – was leaked to the press. The contents of the text, available here, are deeply disturbing.

As it currently stands, the PTA enables arbitrary arrest and long periods of detention with minimal legal oversight. It has been widely condemned as one of the main causes of serious human rights violations in Sri Lanka. Were the proposed CTA draft enacted today, it would not only fail to resolve these issues, but would significantly widen the scope of the repressive powers available to the Sri Lankan state. They would undoubtedly be, in the words of one commentator, “a cure far worse than the disease”.

As the Sri Lankan Prime Minister holds meetings in Brussels to help renegotiate a return to ‘GSP+’ – the preferential trade agreement suspended in 2010 due to human rights concerns – EU officials must now send a clear public message that no headway in the talks will be possible until the PTA is meaningfully repealed.

In 2010 the EU insisted that a return of GSP+ status would be dependent on amending the PTA to make it compatible with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). While a detailed legal analysis of the draft Act has not yet been produced, it is almost certain that it would not be compatible. A re-introduction of GSP+ under the proposed arrangements would therefore fly in the face of the EU’s own guidelines. It would also be a major betrayal of it support for UN Human Rights Council Resolution 30/1, which commits the government of Sri Lanka to replacing the PTA with “anti-terrorism legislation in accordance with contemporary international best practices.”

As the Sri Lanka Campaign argued earlier in 2016, any concessions by the EU must be based on actions rather than words. That means no decision should be made until the final legislation is passed and a full and public review of the broader criteria for return of GSP+ undertaken. Now, as then, it is vitally important that the EU use all the leverage at its disposal in the meantime to push the government to pass an Act that is consistent with international human rights standards and which does not threaten Sri Lanka’s chances for a lasting peace.

What is the PTA and why is its repeal so important?

Originally enacted in 1979 as a temporary measure to deal with a deteriorating security situation, the PTA has (in conjunction with a number of Emergency Regulations) since been used as a tool to intimidate and control citizens from all communities and backgrounds – but in particular, former combatants, journalists, political opponents, human rights defenders and members of the minority Tamil community. The broad wording of the Act means that almost anyone can be arbitrarily arrested, in contravention of both the fundamental rights granted by the constitution and the various international human rights treaties to which Sri Lanka is a signatory.

Owing to its restrictions on access to legal counsel, as well as lack of safeguards on the admissibility of confessions, the PTA has also played a key role in facilitating and incentivising systemic torture by the Sri Lankan security forces over several decades. And with its lengthy detention periods and restrictions on requests to relief from the courts, it has resulted in hundreds of detainees languishing behind bars for many years, without conviction or charge, on the basis of little or no evidence, with minimal judicial oversight. As a 2015 report by human rights group WATCHDOG highlights, five persons have spent 18-19 years in jail waiting for their guilt or innocence to be established. Several have spent over ten years in remand without charges being brought against them.

What is in the Draft ‘Counter Terrorism Act’ (CTA)?

While we await a full legal analysis of the text, early examination of the draft Counter Terrorism Act suggests a massive and alarming expansion of grounds for arrest, with “terrorism” now incorporating the act of “illegally or unlawfully compelling the Sri Lankan Government (or that of any other sovereign nation) to reverse, vary or change a policy decision”. Further ambiguity around prohibitions on “acts of violent extremism towards achieving ideological domination” as well as “words either spoken or intended to be read [that may cause] harm to the unity, territorial integrity or sovereignty of Sri Lanka” indicate a chilling new step towards the policing of thought as well as protest and advocacy.

As for addressing those procedural elements of the PTA which facilitate torture and abuse in custody, the new bill upholds the restriction on suspects’ access to counsel for 48 hours from the time of arrest and maintains the admissibility of confessions obtained by officers. Disproportionate punishments, including the death penalty, do little to assuage the perception that the Act, in its current form, would simply be used by the Sri Lankan state as an instrument for continued repression.

“The whole draft thus allows the government in power to crush any dissent or opposition that may challenge it” (DecentLanka2015 Statement, 17th October 2016)

What needs to happen now?

It goes without saying that the government of Sri Lanka should immediately withdraw this draft and conduct a complete re-write before submitting it to further public and parliamentary scrutiny. Were this not to happen, then it would likely find itself in breach of its commitments both to the international community and its own people.

With regard to the EU, a failure to substantially alter the draft legislation would make the already contentious return to GSP+ status entirely unjustifiable. The EU therefore has a significant amount of leverage over the draft legislation and it is imperative that they use this to ensure that the new Act does not continue to facilitate serious human rights violations.

With regard to the United Nations, Sri Lanka’s commitment under Human Rights Council Resolution 30/1 to review and repeal the PTA means that a failure to meaningfully reform counter-terrorism legislation would merit robust action by the Human Rights Council in the form of further monitoring and oversight.

Most importantly however, the Sri Lankan government promised its own people that the days of authoritarianism were over. This draft Act gives the lie to that promise – a lie that threatens to destroy Sri Lanka’s fragile peacebuilding process. Unless it is urgently re-thought, it could have calamitous consequences for the country’s future.

“…effective counter-terrorism measures and the protection of human rights are not conflicting goals, but complementary and mutually reinforcing.” – 2006 General Assembly Adoption of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy)

*The Sri Lanka Campaign for Peace and Justice is a member of the Global Coalition for Conflict Transformation, which is comprised of organizations committed to upholding and implementing the Principles of Conflict Transformation.

This article was originally published on the Sri Lanka Campaign website and is available by clicking here. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of TransConflict.

By Mehdi Sepahvand and Dalga Khatinoglu

Total is among the companies that have willingness to get involved in development of the Phase 11 of South Pars gas field, Ali Kardor, managing director of National Iranian Oil Company, told Trend on the sidelines of an energy conference in Tehran on Oct. 17.

He said that some other companies from China to Russia have willingness to be involved in this project, but the final winner of the project is expected to be known the next month.

Iran has been developing 23 phases of South Pars, 13 of them were completed, five are expected to be completed by March 27, 2017 and others would become operational in coming three years. Among the phases, only phase 11 hasn’t been started yet. The mentioned phase is expected to produce 56 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) of gas.

Iran is preparing to issue tenders on upstream oil and gas projects in coming days.

Kardor said that $134 billion investment is needed for upstream projects by 2021.

Currently, France’s Total is studying the total reserves of South Pars gas field in Iranian territory, based on a confidentially agreement.

Iran is producing 450 mcm/d of gas from South Pars and the figure is expected to reach 530 mcm/d by March.

The final gas production capacity is projected to exceed 700 mcm/d in coming years, while the gas condensate output would reach 1 million barrels per day.

Currently, Iran produces about 520,000 barrels per day of gas condensate from South Pars.

Bishop Rufin Anthony of Islamabad-Rawalpindi in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province died Oct. 17 from a heart attack. He was 76.

“We are still shocked at his sudden departure. He lived a spiritual life, loved the small chapel in his house, always spoke the truth and never spoke rudely,” said Stella John, a Focolare member in the diocese adding that the late bishop built at least six churches in the Faisalabad Diocese.

Bishop Anthony was born Feb. 12, 1940 in Khushpur, Pakistan. Ordained in 1969, he served as formator and spiritual director at St. Pius X Seminary in Quetta and as a professor at the Major Seminary of Christ the King in Karachi.

Bishop Anthony also served as national director of the Pontifical Mission Societies and later as rector of St. Thomas the Apostle Minor Seminary in Faisalabad and the major seminary in Karachi.

He became vicar general of Faisalabad Diocese in 2005 and was parish priest of Khushpur when Pope Benedict XVI named him coadjutor for Islamabad-Rawalpindi Diocese on Aug. 4, 2009. He was ordained a bishop on Sept. 21 in Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad.

On March 17, 2012. Pope Benedict XVI appointed him as Apostolic Administrator of Faisalabad Diocese, which had not had a bishop for more than a year.

Father Bashir Francis, former vicar general of Faisalabad Diocese, praised Bishop Anthony for accepting responsibility for two dioceses at the same time.

“The late bishop used to travel regularly from Rawalpindi to Faisalabad for church events despite his old age. As the Apostolic Administrator, he took several hard decisions [including transferring several some priests and settling church property disputes] for the betterment of the local church,” said Father Francis.

“Even Muslims appreciated his views on interfaith harmony and considered him a scholar with a genuine heart that cared for humanity.”

Bishop Anthony also served as the general secretary of Pakistan Catholic Bishops’ Conference and Chairmen of Catholic Youth Commission.

His funeral was held on Oct. 19 at St. Joseph Cathedral in Rawalpindi.

The INDC report submitted by India to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change during the Paris Climate Conference contained the following promises:

• Emission reduction – To reduce the emissions intensity of India’s GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level.
• Renewable energy – To achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030.
• Carbon sink – To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion metric tonne of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

After having made such promises, it is surprising that Government of India is now committing itself to the increased use of fossil fuel such as natural gas and coal, even as it is pursuing renewable energy. Is this approach appropriate to its pledge to combat global warming?

Government’s LNG policy

While globally natural gas makes up for 24 per cent of the energy basket, it is 6.5 to 7 per cent in India. Government of India says that it would like to raise the share of natural gas in the energy basket to 15 per cent in the next 5 years.

In Eastern India, the government is laying 2,500 km long pipeline, which will provide natural gas to industry and help in gas distribution in seven cities of Eastern India.

Government of India wants to promote LNG as a fuel for vehicles. Efforts are being made to have LNG-driven bus in Kerala soon. Long-haul driven vehicles and trains will also be encouraged to use LNG as fuel.

As the Indian production of natural gas is nearly stagnant , India has to steadily increase the import of
LNG, as the government of India wants to increase the share of natural gas in the energy basket.

Plans for LNG terminals to increase LNG import

India currently has LNG import and regassification capacity of 21 million metric tonne and the Government of India plans to more than double its annual LNG import capacity to 50 million metric tonne in the next few years.

Petronet LNG Ltd operates a 10 million metric tonne a year LNG import terminal at Dahej in Gujarat and has another 5 million metric tonne facility at Kochi, which is lying mostly idle because of lack of pipeline to take the gas to consumers.

Dahej terminal is being expanded to 15 million metric tonne this year and is proposed to be further expanded to 18 million metric tonne in future.

Royal Dutch Shell operates a 5 million metric tonne a year LNG terminal at Hazira in Gujarat, while a 1.2 million metric tonne capacity operational terminal is there at Dabhol in Maharashtra.

Government’s coal policy

Thermal power continues to lead the power sector in India: For the 12th Five Year Plan, a total of 88,400 MW of power capacity addition is targeted, of which 72,300 MW constitutes thermal power based on fossil fuel, 10,800 MW hydro power and 5300 MW nuclear power.

Government of India appears to have no intention of significantly decreasing the usage of coal in the new thermal power projects.

This is evident from the fact that the government plans to bid out more than 8 ultra mega power projects of generation capacity 4000 MW each in two and a half years, based on coal as fuel. It is reported that Government of India will shortly auction three ultra mega power projects (UMPP s) including Tilaiya and Cheyyurof total capacity of 12,000 MW, entailing investments of Rs. 80,000 crore.

In 2015-16, Coal India (CIL) achieved a record production of 536million metric tonne, which was 42 million metric tonne more than the previous fiscal. Its production grew 8.5% year-on-year. CIL’s output target is fixed at 598 million metric tonne for 2016-17.

Government of India wants to eliminate thermal coal imports by 2017 by doubling production of Coal India, which already has 80 % market share.

Government’s fossil fuel policy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed with oil and gas experts on 5th Jan, 2015, focussing on subjects such as increasing the share of gas in India’s energy mix, fresh investment in oil and gas exploration in India, regulatory frameworks, international acquisition of oil and gas assets, emerging areas such as shale gas and coal bed methane, and the oil and gas sector related possibilities of ‘Make in India’. Source: Statement from the Prime Minister’s Office, 5th Jan, 2015

Obviously, Government of India has no plans for reducing the consumption of fossil fuel. Similar to natural gas and coal, the consumption of crude oil is also likely to increase steadily.

Renewable energy

While the government continues to rely on fossil fuel to sustain the economic and industrial growth of the country, it has set the target of 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022. The progress so far is steady.

Additional requirement for fossil fuel

As per the government’s scheme to use more coal and natural gas in the Indian energy basket to sustain Indian industrial and economic growth, additional requirement of fossil resources would be the following

Additional requirement of coal for all applications by 2022 will be 645 million metric tonne for power generation and other purposes.

Additional requirement of natural gas for all applications by 2022 70 billion cubic meter per annum for power generation and other purposes.

Is increasing use of LNG / coal appropriate policy?

Given India’s promise to combat climate change, one wonders whether burning of more natural gas and coal in power plants and elsewhere as fuel would be the appropriate strategy.

Burning fossil fuels create carbon emission and consequent global warming. It does not matter if it is coal, oil, propane, kerosene, gasoline or natural gas—it all contains carbon, which gets released as a greenhouse gas.

It is a fact that compared with coal, burning natural gas results in roughly half the amount of CO2 per megawatt-hour of electricity. The most advanced natural gas burning power plants can still emit around 385 kgs of CO2 per megawatt-hour of electricity produced. All those power plants that burn natural gas will still spew CO2, albeit less than the equivalent coal-fired power plant. This would make it hard to achieve the goals of CO2-emission reduction, if India were to use more coal ,natural gas and diesel as fuel.

Further, it is possible that natural gas can leak. Leaks occur when the well is drilled, during transport in pipelines, at storage sites, or when methane is pumped into the natural gas(methane) powered buses. This will add methane to the atmosphere, which would increase global warming, when methane gradually converts to carbon dioxide.

It can be seen that continued and increased usage of fossil fuel is contrary to the objective of positive approach to tackle climate change issues.

It is critical that India should focus not just on growth but also on cleaner growth.

What action plan?

Now that India has not significantly reduced its greenhouse gas emissions , government of India should be gravely concerned about the push for the use of more natural gas and coal, which are potent greenhouse fuel.

Considering the fact that there are twin challenges facing India due to the climate change issues and impending energy needs and the fact that both the issues are inter related, the strategic approach of the Government should be oriented to find elegant and integrated solution for both the issues in one stroke.

Obviously, the focus of the strategic approach should be to utilize eco friendly feedstocks for generation of energy to the maximum extent possible, keeping in view that the economic and GDP growth target and climate issues can not be sacrificed.

The most important action needed is to reduce all fossil fuel use and markedly increase efficiencies and take up appropriate renewable energy projects like wind (both onshore and off shore) , solar , nuclear , algae bio fuel and similar other eco friendly fuel source in a bigger way, where there are huge opportunities.

Given the fact that India plans to build renewable energy projects to the level of around 137 MW in the next 10 years, there is strong case to re examine as whether so many new power projects based on coal or natural gas are necessary With more than 2,70,000 MW of power generation capacity already in India, the capacity utilization of the power projects in India are only in the region of 50 percent at present. Why not improve the capacity utilization of existing power projects and reduce transmission loss, instead of building up more fossil fuel based power projects.?

Obviously, Government of India has to re work the energy strategy in tune with its commitment to COP 21, instead of marching on the beaten path.