Since their independence, Latin American countries have displayed a common fervor for populist socialism.

Whether it is a residue of three centuries of European imperial rule, or simply a fondness for charismatic leaders – and an extraordinary talent for producing them – the widespread formula of clientelism and cronyism disguised as socialism has proven to have devastating consequences for the continent’s economic, social and political development.

Nowhere is this phenomenon displayed more clearly at present than in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The country is suffering its worst humanitarian and economic crisis in history, which calls for an urgent solution.
The experience of a number of former socialist countries suggests that a key to [improving] Venezuela’s [economy] lies in forsaking monetary policy autonomy and in turn gaining a stable, fixed exchange rate and international capital mobility.

ORTHODOX CURRENCY BOARD

To undertake monetary reform in Venezuela through a currency board, the first stage of the process would be to convert the existing central bank (BCV) into a currency board. First, all functions of the central bank other than supplying the monetary base should be delegated to other administrative bodies. In the case of Venezuela, this can be the Ministerio del Poder Popular para la Banca y Finanzas. Commercial banks could operate the payments system and provide mutual deposit insurance protection.

Second, there should be a brief period of free-floating exchange rates for the domestic currency, which will indicate an appropriate exchange rate between the reserve currency and the domestic currency that can later become fixed. For instance, in the case of Bulgaria in 1997, after the announcement of the implementation of a currency board, the monetary base was frozen and the lev was floated for 30 days. After this period, the lev was fixed at the resulting rate against the German mark. However, considering the current state of crisis in Venezuela, this step could be omitted for a faster transition, as the black market exchange rates already provide a good indicator for a future fixed exchange rate under the currency board; more precisely, the average rate achieved in the last 90 days would under current conditions be suitable.

At the same time, the government should announce its choice of reserve currency and the date it will fix the exchange rate. This would prevent excessive currency depreciation due to uncertainty, and the announcement of a currency board system itself would probably push the black market rate down by a significant amount, as was the case of Indonesia, where the rupiah soared by 28 percent against the dollar in February 1998 with the announcement of a currency board. Still, official inflation will inevitably rise, presumably to the levels indicated by the implied inflation rate. This figure would then decrease drastically as the currency board was established and began its operations, allowing inflation rate to converge towards the anchor country’s rate.

The choice of reserve currency for Venezuela is obvious. Being a petro-economy, most of Venezuela’s foreign currency transactions are made in U.S. dollars. Realistically, shock asymmetry with the United States should not be a priority concern in Venezuela’s decisionmaking, simply because Venezuela bears no shock symmetries with any stable advanced economy. Even so, the dollar would represent a better choice than the euro or the yen since the United States is Venezuela’s largest trading partner.

An additional step in Venezuela’s case would entail the replacement of all BCV personnel as a sign of full commitment to the new monetary system. Ideally, this would take place swiftly if the administration were to fall into the hands of the opposition, which would also result in the substitution of most current government officials. Additional actions to increase the central bank’s transparency could involve publishing weekly or even daily statistics and balance sheets, or requiring the BCV to fully back any further increases in the monetary base with foreign reserves.

The next step would be to convert some of the required reserves of commercial banks into currency board notes and coins or into foreign securities at the banks’ disposition. This step would eliminate the deposit liabilities of the central bank. In addition, the BCV keeps excess reserves from universal and commercial banks, investment banks, savings and loan institutions, mortgage banks, and financial leasing companies. To prevent extra inflation, these could be converted into government bonds instead of currency board notes and coins. Despite being deep in crisis, Venezuela has kept a surprisingly disciplined commitment in meeting its billions of dollars worth of international debt obligations. This good record of repayment has contributed to an unexpected rally in Venezuelan bonds, especially since the recent rebound in oil prices. Prices for benchmark debt due in 2027 increased from a record low of 33 cents in the dollar in February to 46 cents in June. While the decision to prioritize foreign lenders as the population starves is highly controversial, it will contribute to faster economic rebound if there is a debt restructuring.

The next step in establishing the currency board would be to fix the exchange rate with the reserve currency, by which point the government must have ensured that foreign reserves for currency board notes and coins in circulation equal 100 percent. Fortunately, Venezuela already meets this requirement, and is above the 110 percent ceiling at both the highest official exchange rate (DICOM) and the black market exchange rate. The ratio would probably decrease in the case that the bolívar gained back some value after the currency board announcement. However, as the black market ratio currently exceeds 800 percent, this might indicate that a lower exchange rate than the black market rate is suitable to adopt as the currency board fixed rate.

The final step in the process would be to transfer the remaining assets and liabilities of the central bank to the currency board and open the currency board for business. By then, the currency board would have replaced the BCV as the issuer of domestic notes and coins, and would assume all remaining assets and liabilities of the central bank. Experience indicates that a currency board system could be established in as little as 30 days; the faster, the better.

BOLIVAR VS DOLLAR

Some believe that the bolívar is already too far gone to be rescued. Venezuelan economist and author José Luis Cordeiro even proclaims a “second death of Bolívar” in his book advocating dollarization, or as he calls it, the democratization of money.

There are several reasons why dollarization is a more adequate option than a currency board system in Venezuela. To begin with, there are fewer steps, less bureaucracy and very small costs involved in dollarizing an economy. Ecuador’s dollarization cost around $800 million, a tiny fraction of the billions of dollars that have been smuggled through Venezuela’s fraudulent exchange rate systems. Additionally, the credibility of the currency would no longer be an issue, which would greatly reduce the country risk premium and interest rates, as currency risk would be completely eliminated. Furthermore, dollarization would serve the interest of the Venezuelan people by privatizing foreign reserves and distributing them to the population, so that consumers would finally be able to fully take advantage of the perceived superiority of the dollar. Lastly, dollarization provides the same monetary austerity measures as a currency board, by preventing lender of last resort activities, irresponsible money printing and high inflation.

Venezuela has already begun considering dollarization as a way to salvage the economy. The government has taken steps in the auto industry, where it has recently reached a deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. by allowing them to sell output in dollars. Auto parts will also be paid for in dollars and assembly will take place in Venezuela. Production lines should resume in August.

The auto industry aside, the reality is that the entire nation is informally dollarized through the black market. No Venezuelan would prefer holding bolívares over dollars. However, the popular saying “wages climb up the stairs while prices go up in the elevator” describes the frustrations of earning a living in bolívares and spending in dollar prices.

DOLLARIZATION & ECUADOR LESSONS

Normally, dollarization can take one of two paths: unilateral dollarization, which can occur without a treaty; or a limited treaty with the U.S. government under which Venezuela could retain some of the seignorage it would otherwise lose from dollarization. The latter would allow Venezuelan banks to gain access to the Federal Reserve System as a source of liquidity. In the interest of reforms taking effect rapidly, Venezuela would be better off choosing unilateral dollarization and forgoing seignorage. Furthermore, the absence of the U.S. Federal Reserve as a lender of last resort is in line with the objective of monetary discipline.

As soon as the government announces its decision to dollarize, the BCV can stop issuing bolívares at any time, and simply call in all bolivar-denominated liabilities and give out the equivalent value in dollars. The ratio of domestic currency liabilities to foreign reserves indicated on the BCV’s April balance sheet suggests an appropriate exchange rate would be as low as 9.55 bolívares per dollar for these transactions (see accompanying spreadsheets), although other considerations, discussed below, suggest a more depreciated rate.

To discourage future governments from reintroducing the bolívar or any other domestic currency, the bolívar should be abolished as legal tender and the BCV’s power to issue currency should be repealed. These are essential measures in Venezuela’s case, given the remarkable history of economic and political manipulation.

More important, if Venezuela truly wishes for successful dollarization, it should look to Ecuador’s experience. Ecuador is similar to Venezuela in many aspects; it is also a Latin American oil exporter, and adopted the Chavismo ideology under the leadership of Rafael Correa. Before dollarization, Ecuador’s now extinct currency, the sucre, was subject to rapid depreciation just like the bolívar. The sucre traded at 6,825 per dollar at the end of 1998, and by the end of 1999 the sucre-dollar rate was 20,243. During the first week of January 2000, the sucre rate soared to 28,000 per dollar. Dollarization on January 9 at 25,000 sucres per dollar created immediate stability and a large positive confidence shock in Ecuador.

As a simple comparison, the table (above, under the photo) shows the comparison between Ecuador and Venezuela’s real GDP, converted into dollars, shortly before and since Ecuador’s dollarization. The difference is staggering

In addition, Ecuador’s inflation rate declined from a high of 96.09 percent in 2000 to an all-time low of 2.41 percent in 2005, and has been steady at single-digit figures ever since. A similar rapid drop in inflation over a span of no more than five years could be achieved in Venezuela, if dollarization is implemented.

In addition, it is important to note that Ecuador deliberately chose an undervalued exchange rate of 25,000 per dollar, whereas 20,000 would have been feasible and possibly even 15,000.

A crude estimate of the effect of an exchange rate of 20,000 is that inflation would have been only 80 percent (0.8) as much, giving inflation of approximately 77, 30, 10, and 6 percent, meaning that approximate inflation convergence with the U.S. would have occurred a year earlier, and the price level at the end of the period would have been only 2.68 times the pre-dollarization level.

Therefore, Venezuela should set its dollarization rate based on free market exchange rates, instead of choosing an undervalued rate in order to avoid an inflationary burst. Essentially, it is easier to adjust to a one-shot burst of inflation than to endure the depression that can occur if the exchange rate is too depreciated and have to rely on falling prices to equalize local purchasing power with purchasing power in the rest of the world.

INTEREST RATES, PRIVATIZATION, FISCAL TRANSPARENCY

Another issue is the adjustment of interest rates when converting from the high-inflation bolívar to the low-inflation dollar. Keeping interest rates the same in nominal terms would bankrupt borrowers, since they expect to pay back in depreciating bolívares and not stable dollars. What is needed is an interest rate conversion, or desagio as it has been called in some Latin American cases.

Lifting currency controls is an essential precondition for establishing a currency board system, while with dollarization it ceases to be an issue at all. In contrast, lifting price controls is not a technical prerequisite for the enactment of either monetary reform. However, failure to do so would inevitably compromise the entire reform effort.

Next, as a measure to reduce the costs of goods and services and enhance Venezuela’s competitiveness, state-owned enterprises should be privatized, particularly in the energy sector. The privatization of PdVSA would dramatically increase efficiency, productivity and minimize corruption.

Finally, monetary and fiscal reform must go hand in hand. The Venezuelan government should be subject to a fiscal reform in order to ensure transparency. This is easier said than done.

Ideally, such a fiscal reform would require the government to publish a national set of accounts, which would include a balance sheet of its assets and liabilities and an accrual-based annual operating statement of income and expenses. These financial statements would be required to meet International Accounting Standards and they would be subject to an independent audit.

As mentioned previously, a big advantage of the currency board system is that it imposes fiscal discipline, by eradicating “lender of last resort” activities and central bank credit to the fiscal authorities and state-owned enterprises. This would put an end to the Venezuelan government’s rampant fraud and expenditure.

CONCLUSION

The monetary reforms of an orthodox currency board system and dollarization both represent efficient and feasible solutions for Venezuela. On the one hand, they address the problem of political intervention and inflation by imposing monetary discipline and rule-based monetary policy. On the other hand, they restore credibility and investor confidence by lowering exchange rate risk and interest rates. Finally, it is necessary to ensure that monetary reforms are accompanied by complementary structural reforms, in order to prevent the collapse of the newly established system. It is up to Venezuela whether to let the bolívar perish, or perish with the bolívar.

*María Belén Wu is a junior at Johns Hopkins University double majoring in International Studies and Economics. She wrote this paper during her time as an undergraduate researcher for the Institute of Applied Economics, Global Health, and Study of Business Enterprise. She is a BA/MA candidate with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and will graduate in 2019 with an MA in China Studies and International Finance.

This column is excerpted from “Issues in Venezuelan Monetary and Economic Reform,” a new report from the Studies in Applied Economics, under the general direction of Professor Steve H. Hanke, Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health and the Study of Business Enterprise (hanke@jhu.edu).
Source: http://latinvex.com/app/article.aspx?id=2870

The 8th Summit of BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — in Goa, India, took place on October 15-16 and was, by all indications, a relatively successful summit to maintain the momentum for intra-BRICS cooperation and sustaining its tangible, albeit modest, achievements. The initial euphoria about BRICS, as an alternative to the Western-dominated global institutions, has faded but the group’s member-states remain committed to scaling up their engagements, consolidating their past institutional progress and charting a sustainable path of economic revival for the group — that comprises of 43% of the world’s population, having 30% of the world’s GDP, and 17% of the world’s trade.

With Russian, Brazilian, and South African economies on the economic skids, China slowing, and global protectionism on the rise, this was a crucial summit that reaffirmed BRICS’ relevance, thus quieting the critics, assuming that BRICS can in the future fulfill some of its key objectives, such as doubling the inter-BRICS trade by 2020 (at present the volume of inter-BRICS trade stands at about 250 billion US dollars). According to President Jacob Zuma of South Africa:

“A lot of progress has been made in recent times. These include the implementation of the Strategy for the BRICS Economic Partnership, the operationalisation of the New Development Bank and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the BRICS Export Credit Agencies discussions on insurance and underwriting, the exploration of a BRICS Rating Agency; and the hosting of the first BRICS Trade Fair.”

As expected, each country brought its own agenda to the summit, e.g. Russia’s President Putin succeeded in beating the Western insistence on his global isolation and in inserting his Syria objectives in the final Goa Declaration, and India sought to broaden its regional reach by organizing a joint meeting of BRICS and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Still, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was unable to achieve all he wanted, such as on India’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group or the inclusion of Pakistan-based terrorist groups in the final communiqué, partly due to the Russian and Chinese objections, thus raising the ire of Indian media (Times of India lamented that the Summit failed to reflect “India’s core concerns about the threat of state-sponsored terrorism.”) India is nervous about Russia’s recent military exercise with Pakistan, although Putin reassured India that it has “no hostile intentions,” indeed an important prerequisite for the growing Russia-India economic ties, particularly in the energy field.

Although divergent geopolitical interests preclude the BRICS’s rise as a potential security arrangement, on “geo-economics” it is destined to play a growing role, particularly if its newly-established development bank succeeds in meeting its objectives, which in turn require a substantial increase in its current asset of 100 billion US dollars; the projected objective is to raise this to one trillion US dollars. With respect to the New Development Bank, it has now established a regional center in Africa, and has begun to disperse loans on green projects as well as infrastructural projects. BRICS’s other initiative, the Contingent Reserve Arrangements, is seeking to strengthen the global financial safety net. With the help of its subsidiary arm, BRICS Business Council, the group is seeking to enhance collaboration for facilitating procedures for customs control, tariff reductions, and the like, which is key to enhance inter-BRICS trade. This summit’s biggest success was perhaps in sending the important signal to the world that despite the internal turmoil of some members and the wealth of their divergent interests, the BRICS countries remain united on the path of cooperation and their shared interests for a more equitable world economy are also shared by a large number of other developing nations, who look to BRICS for both inspiration and leadership in today’s turbulent global politics.

This article was published at Iranian Diplomacy

In a speech delivered at the opening of the Economic Forum in Abidjan last year, the king confirmed that credibility is without a doubt beneficial for the wealth of the African continent and primarily for African peoples. According to him, this requires South-South relations to be at the heart of African economic partnerships. Although foreign trade with Africa does not exceed 2.5% for Morocco, 85% of the kingdom’s foreign investments are currently concentrated within the African continent, where Morocco comes second only after South Africa.

Morocco is to step up trade and investment relations with the three eastern African countries that the the King is currently visiting knowing that the potential between Morocco and EAC is not yet fully exploited. To foster the potential cooperation, Morocco will initiate negotiations and sign agreements that will enhance interaction between Moroccan and eastern African business organizations.

Morocco’s new strategy towards Africa is to enhance economic relations with African countries, aims at helping eliminate poverty in the continent and carry out a joint sustainable development policy together with African countries and to assess improvement of cooperation in economy and trade, and issues extending from energy to agriculture and from health to tourism. Morocco would continue in the highest level and a very strong basis would be established to boost relations.

Today King Mohammed IV and the Rwandan President Paul Kagamé, presided over the signing ceremony of 19 agreements, including government and private sector agreements.

The agreements, which concern the different sectors as agriculture, housing, vocational training, finances, taxes and banking sector, new technologies, air transportation, tourism and renewable energy, seek to foster the legal framework governing bilateral cooperation. They are in line with the royal will to reinforce South-South partnership.

They are:

A general cooperation agreement, inked by foreign minister Salaheddine Mezouar and Rwandan peer Louise Mushikiwabo.

A memorandum of understanding to establish a mechanism for political consultations, inked by Salaheddine Mezouar and Louise Mushikiwabo.

An agreement on air services, signed by Salaheddine Mezouar and Louise Mushikiwabo.

An agreement on visa exemption for holders of diplomatic, service or special passports, signed by Salaheddine Mezouar and Louise Mushikiwabo.

An agreement on security cooperation, inked by interior minister Mohamed Hassad and Rwandan justice minister Johnston Busingye.

An agreement to avoid double taxation and tax evasion regarding income taxes, inked by economy minister Mohamed Boussaid and Rwandan minister of finances and economic planning Claver Gatete.

A partnership agreement between the Rwandan finances and economic planning ministry and Moroccan “Groupe Banque centrale populaire” on carrying out a micro-finance program. It was inked by chairman of the board of directors of Groupe Banque centrale populaire Mohamed Benchaaboun and Claver Gatete.

A general agreement between the Rwandan finances and economic planning ministry and the Groupe Banque centrale populaire (Africa Mutual Growth), inked by Mohamed Benchaaboun and Claver Gatete.

An agreement on the promotion and reciprocal protection of investment, inked by Mohamed Boussaid and CEO of Rwanda Development Board (RDB) and member of the Rwandan government Francis Gatare.

A partnership agreement between the Moroccan tourism office (ONMT) and the Rwandan Development Board, signed by ONMT director general Abderrafie Zouiten and Francis Gatare.

A memorandum of understanding between the Republic of Rwanda and the Moroccan company for pharmaceutical cooperation (Cooper Pharma) and Bank of Africa-Rwanda. It was inked on the Moroccan side by CEO of Cooper Pharma Jaouad Cheikh Lahlou and CEO of Bank of Africa Othman Benjelloun, and on the Rwandan side by Francis Gatare.

A memorandum of understanding on cooperation between Casablanca Finance City Authority (CFCA) and the RDB to reinforce and develop their shared interests, signed by director general of CFCA, Said Ibrahimi and Francis Gatare.

A memorandum of understanding on the establishment of the African Institute for Technology, inked by director general of the national company for transportation and logistics (SNTL) Mohamed Ben Ouda and Francis Gatare.

A memorandum of understanding to establish a partnership for the development and promotion of an economic zone in Rwanda, inked by Mohamed Ben Ouda and Francis Gatare.

An agreement on the establishment of a Moroccan-Rwandan Business Council between the Moroccan Employers’ Association CGEM and the Rwandan Private Sector Federation (PSF), signed by president of CGEM Miriem Bensalah-Chaqroun and PSF president Benjamin Gasamagera.

A memorandum of understanding between MASEN and Rwanda Energy Group Ldt for renewable energy development, signed by chairman of MASEN board Mustapha Bakkoury and director general of Rwanda Energy Group Ldt Jean Bosco Mugiraneza.

A memorandum of understanding to finance the project of building 5,000 economic houses in Kigali (Ndera commune), signed on the Moroccan side by CEO of “Palmeraie Développement” Hicham Berrada Sounni and Othman Benjelloun, and on the Rwandan side by director general of the Development Bank of Rwanda Alex Kanyankole.

An agreement between Attijariwafa Bank and shareholders of the “Compagnie Générale de Banque” (Cogebanque), inked by president of Attijariwafa Bank Mohamed El Kettani and representatives of Cogebanque shareholders Philbert Afrika and Égide Gatera.

A memorandum of understanding to promote and secure investment and foreign exchanges by Attijariwafa-Bank, inked by Mohamed El Kettani and Philbert Afrika.

Since his ascendency to the throne in 1999, King Mohammed has placed the African continent at the forefront of his country’s strategic, geopolitical and economic priorities.

Morocco’s efforts to give the South-South cooperation a face full of solidarity, has resulted in its continued commitment to noble causes of peace and development, as well as its constant position to express solidarity towards the concerns of developing countries, and their aspirations for progress and well-being.

The tone of the Royal Monarch’s visits in Africa always upbeats, focusing on opportunities and successes. Equally important objective of these trips aimed to build and sustain Morocco’s positive influence and partnership with African governments and publics. The King’s current visit will bring both immediate and long-term benefits to both Morocco and EAC. It will certainly strengthen existing bilateral relations and help to build beneficial partnerships.
Undoubtedly, the current visit of King Mohammed IV to East Africa is captivating both the international and national media’s attention. In fact the visit signals a renewed interest in East Africa on the part of Morocco. The deepening relationship between Morocco and East Africa will yield significant results.

Governed entirely by colonialist sick mentality, the Hindutva outfits led by ruling BJP and Siva Sena have been targeting Muslims, Islam, Pakistan, Kashmir, etc in order to increase its Hindu vote bank capacity by getting coverts from Congress and other so-called centrist parties. This is a wild strategy of Hindutva outfits seeking to achieve essentially a hate nation by destroying the secular and democratic infrastructures of India.

Of course, India is moving in a systematic anti-Islamic way, after the demolition of Babri Mosque in 1992 in a crude manner and promoting Ghar vapsi agenda to force people from other religions to “return” or join Hindu bandwagon, now it seeks to do away with Muslim Personal law and if one reads between lines, it is moving towards a fully exclusive Hindutva nation just like its ally Israel is seeking make an exclusive Jewish nation.

BJP and other Hindutva forces operating in the country giant secular and democratic path of Indian nation, are interfering with the courts on the ghastly destruction of Babri Mosque in 1882 the judgment of the “case” is delayed inordinately. These law breakers say they are the Indian law and courts and judges must obey their orders.

The All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), along with several other organisations associated with the Muslim community, has opposed the Law Commission’s questionnaire on the possibility of a UCC, declaring that the move amounts to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi government declaring “war” on their religious rights. The threat of Muslim organisations to “boycott” the law commission process also comes in the backdrop of the Supreme Court hearing a challenge to triple talaq where the Centre termed the custom unconstitutional and violative of gender equality.

Led by the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), several Muslim organisations on October 13 opposed the law commission’s questionnaire on the uniform civil code (UCC), declaring that the move amounts to the Modi government declaring “war“ on their religious rights. Accusing the government of waging “war” against the community and contending that the UCC, if implemented, will threaten the country’s pluralism, the organisations said they will start a campaign to withdraw the law commission’s move.

The Muslim organisations will launch a campaign to create awareness about this move by the government amongst Muslims from Thursday, beginning with a gathering in Lucknow. “The government is trying to divert attention of people from its failure. We hope it withdraws the move. If it doesn’t, we will decide on our future course of action. At present, we are trying to create awareness among Muslims in the country,” added Rahmani. Women members of the Board, also present at the press meet, stressed that contrary to perception, the personal law balances rights of Muslim women and men “very well” and that there is no need for reforms in it. “There is no need for any reform in the law. Triple talaq is not an issue and the government’s move to impose UCC intends to snatch our religious freedom guaranteed in the Indian Constitution. That’s the reason we are fighting for our rights,” Aasma Zehra, a Board member, said. In a written statement issued later, the Board alleged that the Law Commission’s decision to seek public feedback on UCC is a “calculated” move aimed at disrupting communal harmony and urged all “secular” parties to oppose the step.

The threat of Muslim organisations to “boycott“ the law commission process also comes in the backdrop of the Supreme Court hearing a challenge to triple talaq (divorce) where the Centre termed the custom unconstitutional and violative of gender equality .

One fails to understand how could what Muslim community practices be problem for their survival and how will it matter to them whether Muslims say once or thrice or twice or many more times while performing a divorce of a badly failed marriage, thereby allowing people live in peace.

India has so many serious issues affecting the life of common people, like rising road accidents, liquor malice and related health problems, farmer suicides, etc but the Hindutva forces are still keen to misuse the Muslims for advancing their Hindu vote bank politics. Hindutva forces are damn sure if they target Muslims, more and more Muslims would leave congress party and more and more Hindus would join the BJP and other Hindutva outfits. This political strategy has worked so well for the BJP and outfits that they don’t want to leave this easy route to Hindu vote banks.

Accusing the government of waging “war“ against the community and contending that the UCC, if implemented, will threaten the country’s pluralism, the Muslim organisations said they will start a campaign to withdraw the law commission’s move and Muslim rights are ensured and protected.

Speaking to the media, AIMPLB general secretary Wali Rehmani, Jamiat-Ulema-e-Hind president Maulana Arshad Madani and representatives of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat, Milli Council, Markazi Jamiat Ahle Hadees said all the Muslim sects and women were “one“ on the issue of personal law. Rehmani said he did not agree with the law commission’s claim that the step is an endeavor to address discrimination against vulnerable groups and harmonise the various cultural practices. He said an UCC will end the country’s pluralism and paint all in “one color“and end diversity. “The questionnaire of the law commission is vague and confusing. It gives an impression that the personal laws are responsible for social inequalities and gender disparities and have nullified the rights of women,“ the AIMPLB said.“The intention of the affidavit by the central government on issues of triple talaq, polygamy, maintenance of divorcees and now the questionnaire are all aimed at clearing the way for a uniform civil code,“ the Muslim leaders said.

Now Hindutva parties also take o about secularism when they find the issue useful to force Muslims to accede to RSS ideology of Uniform Civil code by riding over Islamic personal law. Union Minister Arun Jaitley on Thursday asserted that religion cannot dictate upon the rights of an individual and attacked Congress over its stand on the Uniform Civil Code, saying it was the Constituent Assembly controlled by the party that had envisaged a common civil law for all Indians. “Personal law cannot practise, propagate discrimination; cannot allow a compromise with human dignity. Personal law and practices can certainly deal with religion, can dictate upon rituals. The religion cannot dictate upon rights of individuals,” the Finance Minister said.

Senior BJP leader and Indian FM Arun Jaitley said the move was purely an “academic exercise“ and that an UCC will need Parliament’s approval and BJP has no majority in the Upper House. Jaitley also said personal laws of all religions should be “compliant“with individual rights granted by the Constitution, adding that Hindu and Christian personal laws had been amended in the past. “The triple talaq case is not connected to the UCC. Religious practice can apply to rituals of death, birth and marriage. But there should not be discrimination between male and female with regard to inheritance and divorce. The right to human dignity must be protected. Personal laws must be compliant with the Constitution,“ Jaitley said.

The government’s affidavit on triple talaq is a secular approach, an approach that cuts upon religion, he said. He rejected the criticism of the government by various Muslim bodies, saying personal laws have been amended by the various governments and cited the amendment brought in by the first NDA government in divorce laws governing Christians. The Church fully supported it, he said.

The Manmohan Singh government had also brought changes in Hindu Succession Act to bring the woman at par with the man in inheritance, Jaitley told Times Now. Taking a dig at Congress, he said he was “amazed” at its stand as he recalled that the likes of Jawaharlal Nehru and Sardar Patel, who belonged to the party, had envisaged an Uniform Civil Code but did not push it. He added that the Law Commission, which has sought views of various stake holders on the UCC, is carrying out an academic exercise following a judicial order and it was not the government’s decision.

Muslim leaders also sought to counter the government’s stand on triple talaq by claiming the community has reported lesser number of divorce cases vis-à-vis other communities, especially Hindus. Islamic system does not promote divorce and tries to keep the couples together so long as it worked.

BJP is pushing ahead with its UCC agenda mainly because it thinks every Indian Hindu political party opposes Islam as part of Indian ideology and do not support Muslims in any meaningful way. They all want Muslim vote to win polls. BJP and other Hindutva outfits want to use Muslims as India’s pending “problems” to raise the Hindu vote share to win polls.
BJP is very bold now because many Muslims, though have left or stopped supporting the Congress party, have not joined the BJP. In Delhi poll Muslims abandoned their traditional but useless “icon” Congress and voted for the newly AAP (Aam Aadmi party) and that badly affected the BJP’s anticipated fortunes. .Congress party which lost the government and every seat it contested in Delhi assembly now feels standing at a crossroads, having lost Hindu and Muslim votes banks in its traditional zone.

However, future is unpredictable for both Congress and BJP even as many Congress men seek an alliance with BJP to reverse its bad fortunes. Both BJP and Congress won’t make any direct poll pacts, however, for some “technical” problems. Congress and BJP plus other Hindutva parties are linked through the RSS and hence Congress does not oppose BJP in a serious manner. In recently held assembly poll in Kerala, Congress seems to have indirectly helped the BJP win it’s first ever seat in the assembly.

Meanwhile, BJP has taught useful lessons to Congress as it had years ago challenged the Congress if it could “stop BJP’s rise” to power. Since Congress, which fueled the rise of BJP, has certain Hindutva weaknesses, it cannot challenge the BJP now.

Quality has become prominent at all the stages of education system. This is due to a paradigm shift in the conceptions of knowledge and learning facing the contemporary learning societies. At all the levels of education the major thrust is to improve the standard of education.

At school level there is a need to bring a marked improvement in the subjects of English language, Science and Mathematics. Despite the guidelines from the National policies on Education (1967 and 1986) and Programme of Action (1992) as well as the reports submitted by state level education commissions and committees to bring improvement in the education quality there are hardly many suitable strategies developed and implemented by school boards to improve quality at all the levels/stages of school education.

It is not only the World Bank (1995) that stresses on student’s outcomes as an indicator of quality but education specialists around the world also assert that quality refers to an education that is student-centred and driven by the needs of the local community. The curriculum in schools must be relevant to the immediate community, learning environment that must be stimulating and attractive to students, classroom learning activities must be problem based and interactive, teaching methods should promote critical thinking skills, creativity, and innovative approaches and school based management must be responsive to social development needs. All the above mentioned areas of concern in the education system that can bring improvement in quality of education place a major responsibility on school teachers and their professional competencies. Teachers’ competencies therefore must be reviewed and redefined in the Education System.

It will not be wrong to maintain that, the quality of education and the teacher competency levels in the Indian schools and School Boards need improvement. There is a noted increase in the number of schools in all the school boards, in India but this increase in the quantity is not associated with improvement in quality of education. Not only this, school education is also beset with a range of issues like poor school and student outcomes, lack of qualified and trained teachers (especially for use of technology), increasing student population, higher demand for personal attention and additional time allocation for effective teaching etc. Apart from these the readiness and the use of ICT in schools is still not adequate despite highly emphasised by different Education committees and commissions. Given the concerns over the deteriorating quality of education in many institutions, the current scenario endorses some concrete mechanisms from the government to train teachers and bring an improvement in their competency.

Changing Role of Teachers

In the present times the role of teachers and schools are changing, and so are expectations about them. Teachers are expected to possess creativity, communicative and collaborative skills for the success in modern democracies. It will not be wrong to maintain that teachers today need to develop the competences to constantly innovate and adapt. The common understanding related to teachers’ competencies is divided into three main areas as field competencies, pedagogical competencies and cultural competencies (Katane et.al,Gupta). Teachers need to develop critical, evidence-based attitudes, enabling them to respond students’ outcomes, new evidence from inside and outside the classroom, and professional dialogue, in order to adapt their own practices.

The National Council of Teacher Education (NCTE), 1998 has emphasised that “Teacher is the most important element in any educational’ program and plays a central role in implementation of educational process at any stage. It is teacher’s competence level that can determine student learning outcomes. Also the National Curriculum Framework-2005 recommends that in our classrooms the traditional teacher dominated ‘read and remember till asked’ practice has to be replaced by pupil-centred activity centred teaching learning process.

Children will learn only in an atmosphere where they feel they are valued. Our schools still do not convey this to all children. Unfortunately there is hardly any effort made for development of these competencies among teachers. Today we have dearth of properly trained teachers in Indian Schools. This leads to quality-related deficiencies at each stage of education, resulting in unsatisfactory level of student learning (both scholastic and co-scholastic). Our education system has about 4.52 million teachers in about 5.98 lakh Primary Schools and 98 thousand high / Higher Secondary Schools but substantial number of these teachers are untrained or under-trained and their overall competency requires polishing and improvement. Thus it will not be wrong to mention that teachers are critical to quality education and educational quality depends heavily on teachers and their pedagogical decisions.

Teacher Competencies

According to (Anselmus, S. 2011) teacher’s competence refers to the right way of conveying units of knowledge, application and skills to students. Teacher’s competence also refers to the ability of the teacher to help guide and counsel his or her student to achieve high grades. A characteristic of a competent teacher is that the teacher encourages students to reflect on social reality and empowers them to transform the existing conditions that shape their lives. (Noddings, N. 2000) defines a competent teacher as one who promotes cultural transmission and perpetuates civilizations by passing on as heritage essential basic skills and subjects from one generation to another. It is necessary for children to know about their culture and the world they live in, about other cultures that existed before them, to know about the important and historical persons who made great discoveries or contributed in a major degree to the shaping the society etc.

Additionally, it is necessary for teachers to present to the students an effective selection of the world they live in and to work in cooperation with them in order to help them attain competence in their world. This is what children need the most and can be successfully transmitted through education. (Bovina, K 2002) have placed increased emphasis upon the basic areas of teachers competence which include, mastery of subject matter, understanding of human nature, interest in continues professional improvement of knowledge. The common understanding related to teachers’ competencies is divided into four main areas for the study they are as; Cognitive competencies, Emotional Competencies, Social-cultural and Communication competencies
Cognitive competencies are the competencies of teachers oriented towards carrying out their teaching role more effectively. Without curriculum competencies, it is quiet difficult to produce an effective education service in schools.

Emotional Competencies are composed of teachers’ and students’ values, morals, beliefs, attitudes, anxieties, motivation, empathy and so on. Teachers’ emotional competencies can help students to learn and students’ willingness to learn can be increased if teachers know how to improve the emotional dimension of students’ learning.

Social-cultural competencies include the knowledge about social-cultural background of students and teachers, local, national and international values, democracy and human rights issues, team and collaborative work with others, and social studies. There is a strong relationship between learning and students’ social-cultural background. Humanistic approach and social theories can be put into practice in the classroom by means of teachers’ social-cultural competencies

Communication competencies Communication competencies include voice, body language and words such as speaking, singing and sometimes tone of voice, sign language, paralanguage, touch, eye contact, or the use of writing. They include communication skills in intrapersonal and interpersonal processing, listening, observing, speaking, questioning, analysing, and evaluating.

Conclusion

The range and complexity of competences required for teaching in the 21st century is so great that any one teacher is not likely to have them all, nor can they develop them all to the same high degree. Attention of policy makers and the school authorities must therefore be focused also on the competences or attributes of an education system or of teachers. It remains a fact that in order to raise pupil attainment, teachers must be able to make appropriate use of all the competences necessary to be effective in the classroom and school.

Therefore it must be the ultimate purpose of teacher professional development to enable all the teachers to develop their competences as it will mean stimulating teachers’ engagement in lifelong learning, assessing the development of teachers’ competences, and providing appropriate and relevant learning opportunities for all teachers. Therefore it is mandatory that quality of teaching and teacher competency must be examined in the light of student achievements.Till date in India the concept of teachers’ competencies is mostly discussed in very narrow dimensions such as teachers’ planning, implementation, assessment of the curriculum, standards for the curriculum or the school. These are related to teachers’ teaching duties in the school. In order to develop teachers it is necessary to discuss dimensions like research competencies, lifelong learning competencies and environmental competencies. Therefore, teacher training institutions should focus on understanding and application of teachers’ competencies, as they are of great importance for students’ learning achievement.

On December 16th, will be commemorated the 70th anniversary of Baku Slavic University (Azerbaijan), one of the top prestigious public universities in Europe and Asia.

Baku Slavic University (BSU) is one of the leading public higher education institutions of Azerbaijan; it was created by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Heydar A. Aliyev on June 13th, 2000 based on the education tradition established by the former Azerbaijan Pedagogical Institute of the Russian Language and Literature (APIRLL) named after M. F. Akhundov.

During the Soviet Union period, by Order l313 on February 2nd, 1946, the Council of People’s Commissars of USSR and the Council of Ministers of Azerbaijan SSR founded on May 15th (1946) by a unanimous decision the Azerbaijan State Teacher Training Institute named after M. F. Akhundov. During the first academic year there were admitted 108 students to the institute and there were 28 members of academic staff.

In 1972, upon the initiative of the leader of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Heydar A. Aliyev and by a presidential decree 362 of the Government of Azerbaijan signed on November 2nd, 1972, the existing Azerbaijan Pedagogical (Educational) Institute of the Russian Language and Literature was re-established based on the foundation of Azerbaijan Pedagogical (Educational) Institute of Languages named after M. F. Akhundov.

In 2000, a significant event occurred in the political life and university education of the Republic of Azerbaijan. According to the decree signed by the President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev on June 13th, 2000, Baku Slavic University was established on the basis of Azerbaijan Pedagogical (Educational) Institute of the Russian Language and Literature named after M. F. Akhundov. Based on its heritage and admired profile, BSU is a unique higher educational institution, its mission is to create exceptional professionals in a variety of unique areas of study for the students of Azerbaijan and those coming from other countries in the Caspian region.

Over the years, a strategic program and visionary reforms have been prepared and implemented; the educational policy, curriculum development, educational logistics, text book supplies and all technical support of the university have been renovated; Baku Slavic University (BSU) has become one of the leading higher educational institutions of the country and of Europe.

Today Baku Slavic University is a unique educational and cultural institution of advanced learning tradition that studies in depth the spiritual values of Slavic nations and peoples. The University continues to be a leading institution on in-depth research conducted about Russia and other Slavic Languages, Literatures and Cultures; it is led by highly qualified university professors, academic administrators and is equipped by a cutting edge information technology on campus.

According to the Chancellor of Baku Slavic University, Prof. Dr. Nurlana Aliyeva: “the university offers undergraduate academic programs and graduate studies such as Master’s Degrees in linguistics, philology, area studies, Journalism, International Relations and the Enlightenment. Baku Slavic University has a dean in charge of foreign students, a Department of academic advancement as well as a summer-school.” During the recent years BSU has constantly changed its role and mission, from being a usual educational institution it has become into a regional scientific centre of Slavic philology and Slavic culture.

Today 34 academic department chairs are functioning at Baku Slavic University. The academic staffs of the university consist of: 50 Doctors of Sciences, 200 Doctor of Sciences candidates, many assistant and associate professors, full professors, and more than 200 senior instructors and instructors.

Particular emphasis is placed on the development of new courses’ syllabus, textbooks as well as dictionaries, including academic reference volumes on every area of study; many specialized referenced monographs, curricula and systematic recommendations fulfil the requirements of having an admirable advanced education system at BSU.

In 2000, was established the title of Honorary Doctor of Baku Slavic University in its bylaws. Thanks to the Decision of the Academic Council of BSU many well known heads of State, social and political figures who have special merits in strengthening friendship and collaboration between countries and people, in further developing research in science, education, and culture are awarded with this honorary title. The title of Honorary Doctor of Baku Slavic University has been conferred to: President of the Russian Federation Vladimir V. Putin; the Patriarch of Moscow and Entire Russia Alexei II; President of the Republic of Greece (1995-2005) C. Stephanopulos; President of the Republic of Bulgaria (2002-2012) Georgi Parvanov; former President of the Republic of Bulgaria (1990-1997) Zhelyu Zhelev; President of the Ukraine (2004-2010) Viktor Yushchenko; Chairman of the Federal Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation S. M. Mironov; Speaker of the Parliament of the Ukraine (2000-2002) V.S. Piyush; President of the Republic of Poland (2005-2010) Lech Kaczynski; President of the Republic of Belorussia Alexander Lukashenko; Former President of the Republic of Greece (2005-2015) Karolos Papoulias.

BSU has established multilateral cooperation projects and agreements with higher education institutions in a number of foreign countries. The international relations of the University are regulated by bilateral agreements that are set forth with prestigious institutes of higher education, scientific and public organizations of Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Greece, and other countries.

Some of these dynamic projects in BSU are: “The Centre of Russian Education and Culture” (Moscow auditorium); the Ukrainian educational and cultural centre; the centre of contemporary Greek language and culture; the centre of Bulgarian language and culture; the Polish language and cultural centre; the centre of Turkish studies; the Czech Republic and Belorussian centers; the French and German centres. Moreover BSU is home of the Azerbaijani Multiculturalism Studies program where an in-depth study of Multiculturalism in Azerbaijan has been taking place during the last decade in cooperation with the Baku International Multiculturalism Centre (under the auspices of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Honourable Mr. Ilham Aliyev).

According to BSU Prof. Ulviiya Abbasova: “student life at BSU is also interesting and meaningful on campus, our university offers academic opportunities and services including renovated top level assembly hall, conference hall and renewed overall infrastructure, a main library, and sports training facilities. Students become members of independent organizations, scientific societies and sport clubs. Over the years, BSU teams of athletes, especially the ones in volleyball, handball, and basketball are selected as the best national teams, on many sports competitions, or the so called ‘Spartakiada’ or ‘Universiada’.”

By Dr. Valbona Zeneli*

The European integration of the Western Balkans seems to be stuck between declarative political promises and reality on the ground. There is general consensus, both within and outside the region, that the only realistic project for achieving sustainable stability and prosperity in the Balkans is integration with the European Union (EU). Today, the completion of the “European project” for the region is threatened by serious challenges.

Europe is wrapped in its internal problems struggling to come to grip with the economic and political crises, and still shocked by Brexit, and coping with the migration crisis. Despite all of the current chaos, countries in the Western Balkans have not lost their interest in the EU, and are still queuing up to become members of this large family. On the other side, despite a recognized degree of “enlargement fatigue” by many member states, the EU is keeping the enlargement policy alive in its backyard. “Europeanizing” a region still dogged by mistrust, underdeveloped economies, weak rule of law and underrepresented civil society could be understood as a test of credibility and capacity for the EU, especially so, since winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.

Enlargement fatigue

Enlargement, a core priority of the EU since the 1990s, following the fall of the Berlin Wall, has widely been acknowledged to be the most powerful instrument of EU’s foreign policy . It has been the most effective conflict prevention mechanism in the Balkans. What began as a club of six countries is now home to a population of more than 500 million. Eight more countries are waiting to join the club, while one of the most important EU countries just decided to leave – the United Kingdom.

Despite all the criticism, the overall success of enlargement is undeniable for all countries. New and old member states have benefited economically from bigger markets, higher competitiveness, and access to people and knowledge. It also contributed to reducing the east-west gap in democratic developments. While, each of the seven rounds of enlargement had different motivations and consequences due to varying geographical, political and economic characteristics of the new members, the underlying motivation has not changed: securing Europe.

Twelve years after the “historical unification” of Europe in May 2004 with the “big bang enlargement” with ten new members, the entire discourse about enlargement seems to be rather different. Popular scepticism has grown, with 53 percent of EU citizens largely opposing further enlargement .

Many argue that the “enlargement fatigue” started in 2007 with the accession of Bulgaria and Romani, when the EU reached its “absorption capacity.” But, the debate about enlargement is much older than that. In fact, it started to fade out since 2003 with the failure of the EU Constitutional process, followed by the “NO” votes of the Dutch and French referendums. Then the 2004 and 2007 enlargements increased further the diversity of the EU. On top of all this came the economic crisis and its unprecedented threat to deal a blow not just to the single market but to the whole EU. Right in the middle of the Eurozone crisis, the EU found itself unprepared for the migration crisis- the biggest security threat for Europe, and the events in East. Finally, Brexit, the most unforeseeable challenge for the union which will change the balance of power in Europe and beyond.

The European dream on

The Western Balkan states (Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo) queuing up for membership are themselves no picnic. Despite the progress made in the last 20 years, unfortunately, the region was unpleasantly eventful as the communist ideologies of the past were replaced by nationalist and ethnic divide. The quality of democracy, market economy, political management and rule of law remain concerning. Doubts are raised that democracy in the Western Balkans has turned more into power struggles, creating a gap between elites and citizens. The new institutions of market economy are undermined by the informal economy and the widening economic and social disparities. Organized crime and corruption remain serious challenges. Although the incomes per capita almost doubled in the last two decades, the Western Balkans economies lag behind the rest of Europe, with average regional levels of income as low as 36 percent of the EU countries. Integration with the EU is seen as a tool to catch up with the other advanced European countries.

However, signs of the “enlargement fatigue” are partly unsatisfactory reforms and structural difficulties in the current candidates that make it more challenging to meet the criteria for accession.

Unintended consequences

Statements of no feasible EU enlargement for the Western Balkans in the short term are not uncommon. However, overall support for the region has not been fizzling out at all. Under the initiative of Chancellor Angela Merkel, the “European Perspective” for the region was renewed in 2014, aiming to strengthen partnership and speed reforms. Success or failure will be determined by the real commitment of leaders in the region. They should miss the train this time. Friends and supporter for the region in the EU are diminishing, with the United Kingdom being a good example.

However, sending de-stimulating messages to the region for further enlargement would create the unintended consequence of “reforms fatigue.” This could foster political back-sliding and instability for the region and the EU itself.

About the author:
*Valbona Zeneli is a professor of national security studies and the director of the Black Sea Eurasia Program at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. The views presented are those of the author and do not necessarily represent views and opinions of the Department of Defense, the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, or the U.S. and German Governments.

Source:
This article was published at Modern Diplomacy.

The uneasy co-existence of civil and Shariah law in Malaysia and the polarising ethnic and religious divides within its population could be ameliorated by establishing an independent mediation committee.

By Saleena Saleem*

In late August this year Prime Minister Najib Razak announced a proposed amendment to Malaysia’s Law Reform (Marriage and Divorce) Act 1976. The proposal is an attempt to resolve the recurring problem of highly-publicised custody battles over unilateral conversions of children by spouses who converted to Islam. Several of such court disputes, framed around religious freedom, have been pursued in Malaysia’s dual track legal system of civil and Shariah (Islamic law) courts in the past decade.

Amid the growing religiosity of the majority ethnic group, the Malays, who increasingly choose to identify themselves by religion and call for wider implementation of Islamic codes, laws that negatively and disproportionately affect non-Muslims serve as ominous harbingers of how secularity is being eroded within the Malaysian polity, especially for non-Muslims.

Growing Secular-Religious Divide

This dynamic not only leads to increased inter-ethnic tension between the Malay Muslim-majority and the non-Muslim minorities, it also creates tension between the religious and the areligious within the ethnic Malay majority. Increasingly, we see societal tensions in Malaysia being expressed in a polarising socio-political discourse that pits the secular against the religious.

However, Najib’s amendments, even if enacted – a similar governmental proposal in 2009 was stymied by the Malaysian Conference of Rulers – will not resolve all the outstanding jurisdictional questions. This is because existing Shariah enactments in various states allow for unilateral conversions by one Muslim parent.

Two factors, acting in concert to contribute to the secular-versus-religious divide in Malaysian society today, will make it exceedingly difficult for the problematic Shariah enactments to be modified anytime soon.

The first factor is the rise, since the late 1990s, of ‘new politics’ – an attempt to transcend the ethnic politics of the past, but one that has presented new electoral challenges for the ruling UMNO party. This has been aggravated by an accompanying spread of pro-democracy ideals promoted by opposition political parties and secular-oriented civil society organisations.

The discernible shift of non-Malay voters to opposition parties in the 2008 and 2013 general elections feeds into the perception that the UMNO-led government’s political compact with minority ethnic-based political parties, of which ketuanan Melayu (Malay dominance) is a central component, is being threatened by the advance of ‘new politics’. Najib has warned that failure by Malays to support the dominant UMNO at the next general election would place the country’s Malays and Muslims in the hands of a Chinese-dominated opposition coalition that is ‘anti-Islam and anti-Malay’. This perpetuates the undercurrent of inter-ethnic (Malay versus non-Malay) tension in society.

Counter-response from Conservative Forces

The second factor is the government’s promotion of Islam since the 1970s, which has strengthened the influence of state religious officials, expanded state-led religious administration and given greater autonomy to Islamic courts. However, the increase in contentious court disputes over religious freedoms in the last decade has given rise to the perception among Islamic conservative forces that the position of Malays, and by extension Islam’s position, is under threat from the spread of secular-liberal values in society.

This has been reinforced by secular-liberal activists’ high-profile responses to Shariah court judgments that occurred in tandem with UMNO’s electoral struggles. These Islamic conservatives, including state religious officials, religious leaders within UMNO and PAS, and Islamic-oriented civil society organisations, have coalesced to defend the autonomy of the Shariah courts from outside interference.

When affected parties in a dispute apply to different court systems to seek redress, they reach out to different systems that function based on their respective secular or religious law. Once the disputes reach this stage, the very nature of the dual legal system positions the dispute as the non-Muslim versus the Muslim.

In the bitter child custody battles, the non-Muslim seeks redress in the secular-based civil courts, and the Muslim at the religious-based Shariah Court. The deliberations and the outcomes of such highly publicised disputes inevitably contribute to increased societal tensions by deepening the secular-versus-religious divide in society.

Improve Polarising Tensions with Mediation

While there is little incentive on the political front to confront such issues in a substantive way, continued inaction will only deepen the polarising division and risk the public sphere being dominated by extreme groups on both sides of the secular-religious divide.

One possible method to mediate a consensus between political, religious and civil society actors could be to explore alternative mechanisms for managing tensions in the body politic caused by jurisdictional conflicts.

An independent mediation committee set up in the Federation’s different states might be helpful in this regard. In legal terms, mediation is a voluntary and non-binding process to handle a dispute before it enters the court system. Mediation involves a mediator (or group of mediators) who would help facilitate communication between the disputing parties, with the aim of reaching an amicable settlement.

The main rationale for mediation is to de-escalate disputes that are known to cause societal tensions. The mediators who perform these duties should not have any vested interest in the outcome. The independent mediation committee could ideally comprise a variety of professionals from the secular and religious fields, such as counsellors, lawyers and inter-faith religious scholars.

The mediation process could help provide an educative function for society too. Positive resolutions from such an arrangement could do much to promote a broader mediating socio-political discourse – one that is based on fairness, justice, equality and harmony. This would be a step in the right direction, enabling the state to build on the political and social will generated, to address fundamental conflicts between the two court jurisdictions in a meaningful manner.

*Saleena Saleem is an Associate Research Fellow with the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. A version of this commentary was jointly published earlier in the Policy Forum and New Mandala, The Australian National University.

Malaysia continues to witness the emergence of new political parties in the public domain, further complicating its complex political landscape. The new Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) points to growing political awareness among the people of Sabah. They may be following in the footsteps of Sarawakians, who have been vocal in demanding more political autonomy for themselves.

By Dr Farish A. Noor*

After successive federal elections in Malaysia, it has become commonplace for political observers – locals and foreigners alike – to speak of the states of Sabah and Sarawak as ‘vote banks’ for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition that has been in power since the country’s formation. Time and again, the constituencies of Sabah and Sarawak have voted for BN or BN-friendly parties and candidates. This was demonstrated yet again at the state elections of Sarawak, where the opposition parties – including the DAP – were soundly beaten.

Recent developments in East Malaysia, however, also show that a growing sense of local identity politics is evident, and that increasingly both politicians and the voting public in the states of Sabah and Sarawak have grown more aware of the pivotal role that they play in the country’s overall political equation. At their last state elections, Sarawakians demonstrated strong support for their own local leaders who championed the interests of their home constituencies, and who demanded more say in the political and economic management of Sarawak’s land and natural resources.

Parti Warisan Sabah – Moving Away From “Malaya” Parties

Now in Sabah a new party has been launched, called the Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), led by former UMNO Vice President Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal. Declaring that Warisan will be a truly local Sabahan multi-ethnic party that speaks for the people of Sabah, Warisan’s emergence is an important development that tells something about the state of Federal-State relations in Malaysia today.

A cursory look at the leadership of Warisan shows that all of its main leaders are Sabah politicians who have been present on the local political scene for some time: Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal has been declared the party President, with Darrel Leiking as its Deputy President. Warisan’s vice-presidents are Junz Wong, Jaujan Sambakong and Peter Anthony; while its secretary-general is Loretto Padua.

From the outset, several important observations can be made: Shafie Apdal was himself a member of the UMNO party, while all the other leaders of Warisan have also come from other parties such as PKR and DAP. That these Sabah politicians have decided to leave the ‘mainstream’ national parties and opted for a local Sabah party is indicative of a trend that can be dated back to the last federal elections in the country, when opposition parties in Sabah rallied around the slogan of ‘Sabah for Sabahans’ (that was also the clarion call for Sarawakians.) During the last federal election campaign in Sabah, many local Sabah politicians noted that ‘West Malaysian’ parties such as PKR and DAP were entering Sabah and tapping support from the local parties there. These parties were sometimes referred to as ‘Malayan’ parties, and regarded by some as interlopers encroaching on Sabah’s political terrain.

That key leaders from both BN and opposition parties have left their respective parties to help create this new Sabah party is indicative of the growth of local Sabah-centric political awareness among the present generation of Sabah citizens; and is also a reflection of their desire to direct Sabah’s future political and economic development on their own terms.

Secondly, as suggested by the Warisan logo – which features two hands shaking together – the formation of Warisan has managed to bridge the long and old cultural-geographical gulf between the inland, uphill communities of Sabah (the Kadazandusun and Muruts) and the coastal communities (the Bajao, Suluks, Malays and others). Up to the last elections, Sabah’s politics has been characterised by parties that represent communitarian interests of specific ethnic-linguistic groups, that have remained distinct from one another. It has hitherto proven relatively difficult to bring together the collective demands and interests of the inland Kadazandusuns and Muruts, along with the coast-based Bajaos and Suluks. Warisan’s leader Shafie Apdal has now made it clear that this inland-coastal divided has to be bridged, and the aim of the party is to unite the various communities of Sabah together.

Following the Sarawak model?

Some political commentators have speculated that Malaysia may witness an election in the first half of next year, which gives the Warisan party just enough time to begin its own recruitment drive and prepare for the campaign, should it materialise.

If Sarawak’s recent state election serves as a benchmark, the emergence of a party like Warisan would have important implications for Sabah’s internal politics and the emerging political landscape. Should local Sabah-centric political activism grow, and meet a receptive local audience, there is the very real possibility that other opposition parties – notably the PKR and DAP – will find their advances checked in Sabah, as happened in Sarawak recently.

Furthermore for the people of Sabah themselves the bridging of the coastal-inland gap may well bring about a new sense of state identity politics that has so far been missing in the state. Sabahans may seek leverage with this newfound sense of local solidarity in the way that Sarawakians have been able to get a better deal for themselves in their relations with the federal government. This does not necessarily entail a weakening of the federal-state model in Malaysia, but signals an evolution in federal-state relations that are reflective of the new realities of Malaysian politics.

*Dr Farish A. Noor is Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore NTU.

By Gonzalo Escribano*

The Algerian economy is being seriously affected by the collapse of oil and gas prices at a time of worsening security conditions in the Southern European neighbourhood. This has raised doubts about the country’s ability to weather the shock in the economic, political and security domains, evoking the catastrophic events it experienced during the 1986-1988 crisis and its aftermath. A new paper on The Impact of Low Oil Prices on Algeria, published by the Center on Global Energy Policy, addresses three particular and interlinked issues: (1) whether low oil prices might have similar economic and political effects as in the mid-1980s, when they contributed to the unfolding of a bloody civil war; (2) to what extent can low oil prices foster economic and political reforms; and (3) what are the international implications for the Western Mediterranean and for EU policies towards Algeria.

On the first point, the paper concludes that there is much to qualify in extrapolating the consequences of the mid-1980s oil counter-shock that led the country to recession, revolts, Islamists electoral victories and, finally, to a military coup, repression and civil war. In the first place, the fiscal and current account balances have rapidly deteriorated to worrying levels, but the country still has significant buffers, like substantial (even if rapidly decreasing) reserves and a negligible external debt, which were the two main factors that forced a traumatic shock-therapy approach to stabilisation in the late 1980s. Secondly, the country continues to grow and has avoided an economic recession like the one of 1986-88. This reduces the probability of the country falling into internal turmoil, but also gives more short-term policy space to modulate the pace and depth of austerity and reform measures. The memory of the 1990s, and perhaps more importantly the outcome of the 2011 Arab revolts, together with a worsening regional security context, will also contribute to mute any reaction against austerity measures.

On the political front, the most likely scenario is a process of limited economic and political reforms until there is a consensus on Bouteflika’s succession. Current economic difficulties seem to have slightly shifted the balance in favour of the reformers, who have approved a restrictive and moderately reformist budget and announced a change in Algeria’s economic model. More adverse scenarios cannot be completely ruled out, such as an Egyptian-style military coup or the return to the social unrest of the late 1980s or even the violence of the 1990s. Nevertheless, and regardless of the opacity of Algeria’s political economy balances, it is argued that all of these scenarios currently seem relatively less plausible than a continuing deterioration, with the government focusing on fiscal and external stabilisation and carefully modulating the pace and magnitude of economic reforms. From a security perspective, the Algerian security forces are now also better trained, informed and equipped, and defence and security expenses have not been affected by budget cuts. Neither should the divergences between the civilian and military branches of the ‘revolutionary family’, or with a co-opted business elite, be exaggerated, because all parties share a clear preference for regime continuity.

Regarding international implications, the fact that the deterioration of the Algerian economy might affect the security situation in the Maghreb, the Sahel and the Western Mediterranean is gaining weight over narrow energy security issues. Moreover, it is suggested that the relevant question for Europe is not whether Algeria can be a substitute for Russian gas, but what the EU should do for the country to further contribute to European energy security rather than becoming its next problem. Energy constitutes the only driver available to the EU to incentivise Algerian economic reforms and both parties share a preference for improving their respective supply and demand energy security. A good balance would be to offer prospects of accessing the EU’s gas market in exchange for improving the country’s energy governance.

If Algeria implements both energy supply- and demand-side reforms and institutional measures to improve governance, and the EU provides appropriate hardware (pipelines and intra-EU gas interconnections) and software (a flexible, differentiated and attractive normative framework), an important part of the solution would be in place to diversify away from Russian gas and stabilise Europe’s Southern neighbourhood. The same can be said regarding the eventual negative impact on Algeria of increased US LNG exports. Low oil prices seem to have slightly shifted Algerian political economy balances, making economic (and energy) reform more attractive. Both the EU and the US should explore this window of opportunity, if only because past experience shows that it risks being short-lived.

This comment summarises my paper The Impact of Low Oil Prices on Algeria, published by The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

About the author
*Gonzalo Escribano, Director of the Energy Programme, Elcano Royal Institute | @g_escribano

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute

From November 2013 until last month, reviews — Periodic Review Boards — took place for 64 Guantánamo prisoners who had been assessed as “too dangerous to release” or eligible for prosecution by the previous review process, conducted by the high-level, inter-agency Guantánamo Review Task Force that President Obama established shortly after first taking office in January 2009.

The PRBs — consisting of representatives of the Departments of State, Defense, Justice and Homeland Security, as well as the office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — have so far delivered 57 decisions, approving 34 men for release, while upholding the ongoing imprisonment of 25 others. Five decisions have yet to be taken in the process, which is similar to parole, although with one obvious difference— none of the men at Guantánamo have been tried or convicted. Like parole, however, the PRBs require them to show remorse, and to demonstrate that they would establish peaceful and constructive lives if released.

The success rate in the PRBs to date — 58% — confirms that the decisions in 2009 demonstrated unnecessary caution on the part of the officials who made up the Guantánamo Review Task Force. For further details, see the definitive Periodic Review Board list that I wrote for the Close Guantánamo website that I established in January 2012 with the US attorney Tom Wilner.

Haji Wali Mohammed approved for release

On October 17, it was revealed by the Periodic Review Secretariat that Haji Wali Mohammed aka Muhammed (ISN 560), an Afghan money exchanger, had been approved for release. The decision took place on September 26, but for some reason it was not announced at the time.

His review took place on August 25, and as I noted at the time, his ongoing imprisonment had never seemed to make sense. Mohammed had lost a significant amount of the Taliban’s money when a deal went wrong, and had been blamed by them. There was obviously no love lost between them. As I explained ten years ago in my book The Guantánamo Files, based on a Bush-era review at Guantánamo:

Explaining that he did not know bin Laden and had no time for the Taliban, who had ruined his life, he said, “We were businessmen, their ways and our ways were different. That’s why they didn’t like us and we didn’t like them. Because a businessman does not have a beard and listens to music in his car, and he watches television and they didn’t like that.”

Significantly, the US authorities also seemed to recognize that Mohammed “might not have been the bigshot they had spent years pretending he was,” as I described it, with no confirmation that he had anything to do with Osama bin Laden, for reasons that involved “incomplete reporting, multiple individuals with [his] name — Haji Wali Mohammad — and lack of post-capture reflections.” It was also noted that he had been “highly compliant” at Guantánamo.

In approving his release, the board members recognized that, although he “presents some level of threat in light of his past activities, skills and associations,” the threat he presents “can be adequately mitigated” in light of the fact that his “business connections and associations with al-Qaeda and the Taliban pre-date 9/11 and appear to have ended,’ that he “does not appear to be motivated by extremist ideologies,” and because of his “relatively compliant behavior and cooperative attitude toward JTF-GTMO staff.”

In conclusion, the board members recommended his transfer “with the appropriate security assurances, as negotiated by the Special Envoys and agreed to by relevant USG departments and agencies, preferably to a country with reintegration support and the capacity to implement robust security measures, including monitoring and travel restrictions.”

Former child prisoner Hassan bin Attash has his imprisonment upheld

On October 11, the board delivered its decision in the case of Hassan bin Attash (ISN 1456), born in Saudi Arabia to Yemeni parents. As I stated at the time of his PRB, he “appears to have been just 17 years old when he was seized in a house raid in Pakistan and sent to Jordan to be tortured” prior to being sent to Guantánamo, where he has been held for 12 years without charge or trial, although the US alleges that he was 20 at the time.

Bin Attash is the brother of one of the men facing a trial for their involvement in the 9/11 attacks, and was seized in Karachi on September 11, 2002, the first anniversary of the attacks, with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, another of the men facing a trial. Nevertheless, whatever his alleged wrongdoing, he has never been treated as he should have been as a juvenile, because juveniles (those under 18 when their alleged crimes took place) are supposed to be rehabilitated rather than punished, and kept separate from adult prisoners, according to the Optional Protocol to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict, to which the US is signatory, and which came into force the year bin Attash was seized. The Optional Protocol stipulates that juvenile prisoners “require special protection,” and specifically recognizes “the special needs of those children who are particularly vulnerable to recruitment or use in hostilities”, requiring its signatories to promote “the physical and psychosocial rehabilitation and social reintegration of children who are victims of armed conflict.”

In bin Attash’s case, the Periodic Review Board members approved his ongoing imprisonment because they “considered [his] history with al-Qa’ida, to include serving as an explosives specialist and an aide to several senior al-Qa’ida members, as well as supporting numerous plots against the US and other Western targets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa.”

Additionally, they did not find him “credible” because, they stated, he “denied making any statements threatening guards or expressing his belief that Westerners are his enemies,” he “remains intent on reengaging after detention,” and he “refused to acknowledge that he was affected by his extremist upbringing and indoctrination at an early age.”

The board members also concluded that he “downplayed his knowledge regarding what was happening during his extensive time in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” which, they stated, “is not credible given the significant amount of time he spent in Afghanistan,” and they ended by stating that they were “unable to assess [his] current mindset due to his refusal to be candid in response to numerous lines of questioning.”

In the Miami Herald, Carol Rosenberg added that the bin Attash brothers “have never seen each other” at Guantánamo, as their lawyers have explained, because the elder brother, Walid, is held in Camp 7, reserved for the “high-value detainees,” while Hassan is held in Camp 6, where prisoners are allowed to mingle freely.

Pakistani Ahmed Rabbani has his imprisonment upheld

In another decision, taken on October 3 but not announced until October 17, Ahmed Rabbani (ISN 1461), identified as Mohammed Ahmad Rabbani, also had his imprisonment upheld. A long-term hunger striker, he was regarded as “a financial and travel facilitator for prominent al-Qa’ida leaders Khalid Shaykh Muhammad (KU-10024) and USS Cole mastermind Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri from 1997 until his arrest in September 2002,” with his brother Abdul Rahim, whose ongoing imprisonment was upheld in August, after a review in July.

At Ahmed Rabbani’s review, on September 1, his lawyer, Shelby Sullivan-Bennis of Reprieve, attempted to persuade the board that he was a case of mistaken identity, as the CIA had seized him and his brother thinking on elf them was someone else, but even though this was true it doesn’t address the brothers’ actual role, and, i any case, the parole-style PRBs are generally much more interested in contrition than they are in disputed facts.

In Ahmed Rabbani’s case, the board members considered his “lengthy and continuous association with al-Qa-ida, beginning with training in Afghanistan in 1994,” and “also noted that [he] was a financial and travel facilitator over an extended period of time” for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri.

Furthermore, the board members considered what they regarded as his “lack of candor, his evasive and non-responsive answers to the Board’s questions, and his multiple contradictory statements which mad wit difficult for the Board to assess his mindset.”

In conclusion, the board members “noted [his] refusal to take responsibility or appreciate the implications of his pre-detention activities, [his] lengthy history of highly non-complaint behavior during detention, [his] strong expressions of support for terrorist activities, and the lack of evidence of a change in [his] mindset.”

Further reviews — including for the Pakistani businessman Saifullah Paracha

For Hassan bin Attash, Ahmed Rabbani and the 22 other prisoners recommend for ongoing imprisonment by the PRBs, their initial reviews are not the end of the story. All have purely administrative reviews (file reviews) every six months, which reconsider their cases, and to which their lawyers can submit information. Every three years, they are entitled to an additional full review, but in some cases the file reviews also recommend that full reviews take place sooner.

This has happened with four men whose ongoing imprisonment was recommended by PRBs, but who subsequently ended up being granted full reviews, which subsequently approved their release (and three of the four have been freed). In addition, in June, Moath al-Alwi (aka Muaz al-Alawi, ISN 028), was granted a full review that will take place on October 20, and three other men have had full reviews recommended in the last month — Salman Yahya Hassan Mohammad Rabei’i (ISN 508), whose review is taking place on November 1, Yassim Qasim Mohammed Ismail Qasim (ISN 522), whose review is taking place on November 8, and Mohammed Al-Ansi (ISN 29) whose review is taking place on March 1, 2017 (although no explanation was given as to why his review is not taking place sooner).

In all these cases the review board members stated that, “After reviewing relevant new information related to the detainee as well as information considered during the full review, the Board, by consensus, determined that a significant question is raised as to whether the detainee’s continued detention is warranted and therefore an additional full review should be conducted.”

The recognition that additional information raises “a significant question” about whether or not the prisoners in question should continue to be held is obviously very significant — especially as the four men reviewed to date have subsequently had their releases recommended, and on October 10 the board members — for the same reasons — also approved a full review in the case of Saifullah Paracha, although no date has yet been set for the review.

I am glad to see that this full review is taking place, because, as I wrote when Paracha’s ongoing imprisonment was recommended, in April:

I have never found the case against Paracha — that he worked with Al-Qaeda in a plot or plots relating to the US — to be convincing, as he lived and worked as a successful businessman in the US from 1970-86, appears to be socially liberal, and has been a model prisoner at Guantánamo, where he has helped numerous younger prisoners engage with the various review processes established over the years. When his PRB took place, the authorities described him as as “very compliant” with the prison guards, with “moderate views and acceptance of Western norms.”

I also hope that, in due, course, Paracha and the four other men granted further full reviews will be granted their release, as I can see no good reason for anyone to continue to be held at Guantánamo unless there are demonstrably serious allegations against them — and, preferably, of course, they should as a result be put on trial.

The Radiological and Nuclear Regulatory Authority of Paraguay and Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom yesterday signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

The document was signed by Eladio Loizaga, Paraguay’s minister of foreign affairs, and Nikolay Spassky, Rosatom’s deputy director-general. The signing ceremony was attended by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

In a statement, Rosatom said the memorandum – which is the first document related to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy to be signed between the two countries – constitutes the basis for bilateral cooperation in a number of areas including: the application of radioisotopes and radiation technology in industry, medicine and agriculture; assistance in creation and development of a nuclear power infrastructure in Paraguay; nuclear and radiation safety and security; and, development of programs aimed at raising public awareness about nuclear technologies and their applications, including organization of information centres.

The two sides have agreed to consider joint work on projects such as construction of a nuclear science and technology centre with a research reactor. They will also consider the possible development and signing of an inter-governmental agreement on cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, Rosatom said.

Paraguay is not known to have any nuclear power ambitions, but it has some uranium. In May 2015 Texas-based Uranium Energy Corporation was granted regulatory approval to advance its Yuty in-situ leach uranium project in southeast Paraguay from the exploration phase to justifying its mining potential. The Yuty project has NI 43-101 compliant measured and indicated resources of 3430 tU at an average grade of 0.052%, with an inferred resource of 856 tU at an average grade of 0.047%. The deposit – some 200 km southeast of Asuncion – is located within the Parana Basin, which is host to a number of known uranium resources, including Figueira and Amorinopolis in Brazil. UEC also has the Oviedi project in Paraguay.

By Vincent Lofaso*

On May 18, 2016, the Argentine government and the U.S military reached an agreement, which granted the United States permission to build two new bases in the Tierra del Fuego region and on the triple border between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. While many officials are asserting that the Tierra del Fuego base would be used mainly for scientific work, the U.S. strategy actually has two main objectives. First, Washington is creating National Security Bases (NSB) for defense and strategic purposes. Secondly, the United States is establishing stations for joint military exercises, which are providing security resources and conducting training operations not only for Argentina, but for the rest of Latin America as well. However, the installation of these bases is inherently controversial. The head of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), Ernesto Samper has called for the U.S. military bases to “leave the continent.”[i] Instead, Samper is seeking improved U.S-Latin American relations through diplomacy and dialogue, but building military strategic bases is nothing new to U.S. foreign policy. As noted by Aliana Navarez, a writer for Pulsamerica, “US bases installed in Central America and the Caribbean, added to those in Colombia, Peru, Chile and Paraguay, plus NATO in the Falklands and the British detachment in [South] Georgia Islands, all host multiple benefits to North America and its local allies.”[ii] For example, in 2009, the Colombian government and the U.S military signed the 2009 Defense Cooperation Agreement to build land bases in Tolemaida and Larandia, as well as sea bases in Cartagena and Bahia Malaga. Opposition to this agreement was immediately raised in South America, even though the United States claimed that their purpose was to facilitate anti-drug operations in the area. In Colombia, the United States has continued to cooperate with the Santos Administration on bilateral security issues related to the recently-ended Colombian armed conflict with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – FARC) and Ejercito de Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Army – ELN).

Argentina’s defense relationship with the United States had become increasingly tense due to the shift in Argentine policy under the Kirchner administration (2003-2015) towards greater regional integration in Latin America. Shortly after current Argentine President Mauricio Macri came into office in 2015, he promised to rekindle relations with the United States, while simultaneously cooperating with regional allies, such as Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay. Still, the Obama Administration’s decision to set up military bases in Argentina is seen by many as an act of aggression and violation of sovereignty against the Argentine people, despite the United States’ claims that curbing the movement of drugs and controlling sea routes can bring much needed stability to Latin America. The Argentine people have good reasons to suspect that the ulterior motives for the bases are not necessarily in the best interests of the nation, nor the region.

Geopolitical Strategic Location

The Argentine province of Misiones is located on the triple border with Brazil and Paraguay. This region has increasingly caught Washington’s attention because it contains the Guaraní Aquifer, holding some of the world’s most significant water resources. The Guaraní Aquifer is the largest water reserve in Latin America and has been the source of great political controversy. There are growing concerns over the impact of a new American base and its negative effects on the indigenous Guaraní people. With a new military base, the access of indigenous communities to a clean water supply will be restricted, as well as the effect on fishing and freedom of movement within the area.

Publicly, the United States claims that its interest in the region is to prevent drug-trafficking and international terrorism. However, Carlos Aznárez, a writer for The Dawn News, warns that these ostensible objectives may harbor less benevolent intent. “In fact,” says Aznárez, “there are already several ‘observers’ of the US Southern Command and the National Security Agency who are touring the area and apparently believe that Puerto Iguazú (on the border with Brazil) is the right place to install this interventionist stronghold.”[iii] The United States has carried out this suspicious form of interventionism by setting up radar stations and observation bases without informing the public; “And in other occasions, they open, as they have already done 36 times, military bases (there are 761 worldwide) with airports for bomber aircrafts and presence of uniformed and armed troops.”[iv] This U.S. habit has manifested itself across all of Latin America. Last year, the Argentine public opinion of the United States was divided. Approximately 43 percent of the Argentine public had a favorable attitude towards U.S. foreign policy, which represented a 7 percent increase from 2014.[v] However, with the construction of United States bases, the public opinion of the Argentine people, especially of the people of Misiones, might abruptly change. This is a great concern for the U.S. military, as the goal of U.S. foreign policy is to expand its presence for economic and national security purposes.

Jose Luis Garcia, a former Colonel and founder of the Center of Military for Argentine Democracy argued that Macri’s policy, “wants to consolidate the international establishment”.[vi] During the Alfonsin Presidency (1983-1989), the Argentine army was reduced to making decisions on policy, promotions, and other issues in Argentine society. But now, Macri has given more autonomy back to the military, mimicking an ominous feature of the 1984 dictatorship.

Tierra Del Fuego: The End of the World

Tierra Del Fuego is an archipelago of closely knit islands. Its geostrategic location lies in its geographic value to the Malvinas Islands, numerous Antarctic islands, and access to valuable water supplies. The Tierra Del Fuego is also strategic for its new navigation routes for ships, hydrocarbons, minerals, and other natural resources. The Argentine government called the proposed U.S. installation in the city of Ushuaia; “a logistical base to support scientific work in Antarctica.”[vii] But according to Elsa Bruzzone, an expert on geopolitical and defense strategy at the Argentina Military Center for Democracy, Washington’s actions, “use various altruistic rationalizations [like] humanitarian aid, support against disasters, combating drug trafficking and [providing] support for the development and scientific research – to install military bases written off on a scientific basis”.[viii] As Antarctica possesses the largest fresh water reserve in the world, Chile, Argentina, the United Kingdom, and now the United States have been discussing the possibility of creating a new base in Ushuaia, the capital of Tierra del Fuego. This base in Tierra Del Fuego would pursue American and European interests at the expense of Argentine public concerns.

Hydrocarbon resources play an important role in the economies of both the Argentine and Chilean sides of the archipelago. Numerous oil and gas fields will be exploited in the region, both on land and offshore, particularly in the northeastern sector of the island. Nearly all of the Argentine oil and gas is sold to Chile. The Tierra Del Fuego is known for its vast amounts of petroleum and the rocks in this area are important for seabed mining.

However, the problem in Tierra Del Fuego is not necessarily about the existing bases in Antarctic scientific research. Although, there are a number of research bases in the Antarctic, the sea lanes and applicable laws to the freedom of navigation appear to be significant for ship passage and trade. One of the reasons why the United States, unlike a number of Latin American nations, such as Argentina, did not sign the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS) is because of their objection to the treaty’s provisions on deep seabed mining, in particular towards natural resources. Since the United States did not ratify UNCLOS, it claims to establish its own guidelines in order to protect their own economic interests. In addition to their interest in natural resources, the United States wants to control the sea-lanes in the region. According to UNCLOS Article 53, ships in archipelagic sea lane passages, “shall respect applicable sea lanes and traffic separation schemes established in accordance with this article.”[ix] Many nations are concerned about the proposed U.S. base in the region because it limits other nations from accessing shipping routes for trade, commerce, and transportation. Far from being a humanitarian and scientific mission, the U.S. military presence could restrain the legitimacy of UNCLOS.

U.S. Intervention on the Triple Frontier: The Guaraní Aquifer

In addition to creating a military base in Tierra del Fuego, the United States is also establishing a facility in Iguazú Falls, a city situated on the borders of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. According to W.T Whitney Jr., a writer for the People’s World, the Triple Frontier is a region with so much strategic value that the U.S. could strengthen its presence in the area; “The giant Itaipú hydroelectric dam is located near the confluence of the Iguazú and Paraná rivers. And the area overlies the Guarani aquifer, the world’s largest reservoir of drinkable fresh water.”[x]

Nevertheless, the Guaraní Aquifer is a controversial political and economic issue facing the Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR) countries. “The four countries above the Aquifer are developing rapidly and will increasingly experience demand from private companies as well as public bodies to extract water from the Aquifer.”[xi] In a landscape of increasing global security, and political conflict about water, the Guaraní Aquifer is a very complex issue for sustainable management. Due to this high demand for water, International Atomic Energy Agency scientists are using the Guaraní Aquifer as a link between science and diplomacy “to preserve and use the resource sustainably”.[xii] The Triple Frontier countries have used information-sharing techniques to create policies on how to preserve the resources in the Guaraní Aquifer area without interfering with the indigenous populations that live nearby. The United States does not have a general understanding of how this base will affect the indigenous populations of the Triple Frontier, but they need to take this into consideration. In addition, the United States should recognize that water scarcity is a problem for the Triple Frontier. The water cycle is growing less predictable as climate change impacts temperature patterns around the world. The United States must also make certain that everybody has access to this vital source of fresh water instead of solely pursuing to advance their economic interests. As countries look to alternative sources of water to alleviate shortages, the Guaraní Aquifer will be high on the list.

The Result: Aggression or Diplomacy?

Obama’s decision to create two military bases in Argentina is creating controversy and opposition among the Argentine people, many of whom view it as a form of imperialism and a violation of international norms. This is a highly sensitive issue, especially in a country that has had an excruciating history of democratic transition dating back to 1983. The United States 2016 presidential election will be critical for Argentina’s future, considering that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have interventionist postures towards the region and around the world. Clinton, who wants a strong militaristic presence in the world, and Trump, who simply wants to increase the notion of American Exceptionalism are both likely to continue Obama’s policies in the region. Even though the United States believes that controlling sea-lanes and preventing the movement of drugs can bring stability to Latin America, other countries might not agree with this logic. Instead, the United States might want to focus on maintaining peace and good relations policy with the people of Latin America, not on building bases for imposing its power and authority by diktat.

* Vincent Lofaso, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Notes:
[i] Aznárez, Carlos “What will Argentina be like with two US military bases?” June 26, 2016 The Dawn News http://www.thedawn-news.org/2016/06/30/what-will-argentina-be-like-with-two-us-military-bases/

[ii] Navarez, Ailana “Argentina: Macri Opens Door to US Military Bases” July 2, 2016 Pulse America http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2016/07/argentina-macri-opens-doors-to-us-military-bases/

[iii] Aznárez, Carlos “What will Argentina be like with two US military bases?” June 26, 2016 The Dawn News http://www.thedawn-news.org/2016/06/30/what-will-argentinca-be-like-with-two-us-military-bases/

[iv] Aznárez, Carlos “What will Argentina be like with two US military bases?” June 26, 2016 The Dawn News http://www.thedawn-news.org/2016/06/30/what-will-argentina-be-like-with-two-us-military-bases/

[v] “Opinion of the United States” June 2016 Pew Research Center http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/country/11/

[vi] “Argentina: Macri Defense Policies Move Closer to US Guidelines” June 7, 2015 Telesur http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Argentina-Macri-Defense-Policies-Move-Closer-to-US-Guidelines-20160607-0034.html

[vii] Navarez, Ailana “Argentina: Macri Opens Door to US Military Bases” July 2, 2016 Pulse America http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2016/07/argentina-macri-opens-doors-to-us-military-bases/

[viii] Navarez, Ailana “Argentina: Macri Opens Door to US Military Bases” July 2, 2016 Pulse America http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2016/07/argentina-macri-opens-doors-to-us-military-bases/

[ix] “United Nations Convention Law Of the Seas” United Nations https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part4.htm

[x] Whitney, W.T “Argentina’s new government accepts U. S. military bases” June 16, 2016 People’s World http://www.peoplesworld.org/argentina-s-new-government-accepts-u-s-military-bases/

[xi] Brambilla, Annalisa: Guarani Aquifer? What is it? March 10, 2011 WordPress https://annalisabrambilla.wordpress.com/

[xii] Brittain John, Cayol Jean-Pierre, Grossi Agustina, and Malavasi Aldo, “Perspective: The International Atomic Energy Agency” June 22, 2015 Science & Diplomacy http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/perspective/2015/international-atomic-energy-agency

Damascus has reacted harshly to the bombing of Kurdish militias in northern Syria on Thursday morning by Turkey’s air force, vowing to intervene next time Ankara sends its planes over its border.

In a statement, the Syrian Defense Ministry accused Turkey of “flagrant aggression, which targeted innocent citizens,” saying that it considers it “a dangerous development that could escalate the situation.”

“Any attempt to once again breach Syrian airspace by Turkish war planes will be dealt with and they will be brought down by all means available,” warned Damascus, whose planes, which have flown in concert with a Russian expeditionary force, have been avoiding direct confrontation with unauthorized NATO jets.

Turkish artillery guns have been firing at Kurdish militias, who are now fighting against Ankara-backed rebels over territory won back from Islamic State in northern Turkey on Wednesday. Turkey said that the airstrikes took out up to 200 Kurds, though the YPG, the Kurdish militia, initially put its losses at 15.

Syria called the victims “150 innocent civilians” and said that “these irresponsible acts will have dire consequences that will threaten the region’s stability and security.”

The US, Turkey’s NATO ally, has meanwhile distanced itself from the airstrikes, with State Department spokesperson John Kirby tweeting on Thursday that “contrary to some reports, US was not involved in Turkey airstrikes last night.”

Kirby added that US “called on all parties on the ground to avoid uncoordinated movements,” adding that they “only benefit” Islamic State terrorists.

Turkish aerial incursions into Syria have grown more frequent, as fighting has intensified around Aleppo, with at least four factions vying to take control of northern Syria, all with their own agendas.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, tensions have been on the rise between the two neighboring countries, with Ankara backing armed rebels opposing the legitimate Syrian government. On several occasions, shelling from heavy fighting spilled over the border and into Turkey, further inflaming the situation.

In June 2012, Syria downed a Turkish military jet on reconnaissance mission over Syrian territorial waters 1 kilometer from its coast. While Syria insisted that it was acting in defense of its borders, Ankara accused it of breaching international law. Turkey later confirmed that the jet did enter into Syrian airspace by mistake but claimed that it was shot down in international airspace after it had left Syrian territory.

In August, the Turkish army supported by Syrian rebels launched a ground intervention into Syrian territory, aiming to liberate the Kurdish border town of Jarablus from Islamic State, which had held the city since July 2013. Damascus condemned the incursion as a violation of its sovereignty, while the Kurds accused Turkey of unleashing a “war” on Kurdish militias who wanted to retake the town from terrorists.

By N Manoharan and Anumeha Singh*

Thanks to Harinder Bains, Ahmad Rahami, the suspect in the New York and New Jersey blasts was recently apprehended by the police. Bains is neither an intelligence agent nor a security official but a common man, who spotted Rahami sleeping in the doorway of his bar in Linden, New Jersey. He could have moved on ignoring the threat bearer, but took the risk to do his duty as a citizen. There was a similar incident in India as well recently, when some school children managed to alert the security forces on sighting 5-6 persons in Pathan suits carrying weapons and backpacks near the Uran Naval Base.

This brings to the fore the important aspect of the common public as an ally in countering terrorism. It is not possible for the state forces to be present everywhere. If ‘eternal vigilance’ is identified as a crucial component of any counter-terrorism strategy, involvement of the civil society is crucial. Without the eyes, ears and intuition of the general public, it is difficult to identify terrorists who are anonymous and blend seamlessly into the environment in which they live and operate, especially in the urban landscape.

The need for a vigilant public has become even more critical in India as the phenomenon of urban terrorism, characterised by its diabolical, constant, deadly, unpredictable and transnational nature, has taken firm roots. Urban areas, with a large and densely populated terrain hold significant advantages for terrorists. Unlike in rural areas, inhabitants in cities and towns are more heterogeneous, giving them more space for anonymity. Cities and towns are the nerve centres of a country, and it is here that targets are most varied and abundant – public areas and modes of transport, commercial centres, and people or centres of symbolic and strategic importance such as government buildings and officials, corporate heavyweights, and foreign nationals and embassies – ensuring a more widespread impact of a destructive act.

Overall, an urban landscape facilitates terrorists in realising their goals: surprise, maximum damage with minimum risk, hyper media attention and subsequent disappearance. The “eyes and ears” scheme followed by police in some Indian metros like New Delhi, Bengaluru, and Mumbai could be made mandatory for all urban areas. Apart from members of residents’ welfare associations, such schemes should include street vendors, rickshaw-pullers, barbers, parking lot attendants, security guards, drivers, cyber cafe owners, property dealers, used car dealers, guesthouse owners and porters. Common public also need to be sensitised on the gravity of the threat from terrorism, and on suitable responses. Strong security consciousness and a sense of situational awareness need to be created. Situational awareness in fact should be a habit in the interest of personal security of all citizens. People could contribute as informers, witnesses, and rescuers. All these could, in fact, be made a fundamental duty under the Indian Constitution.

The people have to keep a steady eye on tentative, errant behaviour, or suspicious movements in their neighbourhood or in public places, and share the information with point persons in the police and intelligence agencies. For instance, on every New York City subway train, the message to passengers since 9/11 has been clear: “If you see something, say something.” Similar periodic announcements are made at all Indian airports and railway stations. Citizens could organise themselves into ‘neighbourhood watch committees’ through community consensus mechanisms, based on a genuine concern to prevent future terrorist attacks. All communities could be co-opted in counter-terrorism measures instead of perceiving members of some communities as the “other.” On coastal security, the community of Indian fishermen could be made as ‘working partners’ to keep a constant tab on coastal waters.

For this, the local police should consciously develop ‘social assets’ by establishing professional and moral superiority over the terrorists, while, at the same time, honouring the rights and liberties of the people even in difficult situations. Most importantly, witness protection laws have to be strengthened; informers have to be safeguarded.

Awareness creation among people should also include ‘golden rules’ to be followed by people in case of a terrorist attack. Training of people in civil defence is important in post-attack scenarios. It has so far not been taken seriously. As suggested by the ‘National Policy Approach Paper on Revamping of Civil Defence in the Country’, civil defence infrastructure should be made available in all the districts in the country. This demands close coordination with the Panchayati Raj Institutions, urban local bodies and pertinent civil society groups. Making best use of ex-service and other retired security personnel could be considered in this regard. Every citizen should know the basic tenets of first aid, which in fact should be part of school curriculum. Such familiarisation will not only minimise the lethality of terrorist attacks, but also reduce the consequent panic.

* N Manoharan and Anumeha Singh
Department of International Studies and History, Christ University, Bengaluru

A few weeks ago, the Tamil People’s Council (TPC) staged a protest campaign called the Eluga Thamil. In addition to Vigneswaran, Suresh Premachandran of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), and Gagendrakumar Ponnampalam of the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) played a major role.

The march and the meeting drew a considerable crowd. Hence, the organizers view it as a success. After viewing the videos of the speeches of major players, I believe that the campaign had dual objectives of raising the socio-political issues the Tamil people face in the Northern Province and kindling Tamil nationalism.

Right to Protest

In his speech, Vigneswaran emphasized the fact that the rally was not organized to oppose anybody, including the central government and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). He highlighted the issues of, for example, the erecting of Buddha status in non-Buddhist areas by the military, continued incarceration of LTTE suspects, alleged colonization of Tamil area by outsiders, and many other issues.

In response to the Eluga Thamil rally, the South exploded with condemnation. Some called for Vigneswaran’s arrest and others argued that he should be removed from the Chief Minister’s office. Obviously, the South overreacted. The people in Sri Lanka, regardless of ethnicity and religion, have the right to protest peacefully. This applies to the Tamil people, as well as Vigneswaran. As long as these programs remain peaceful, they should be tolerated even if they do not conform to the predominant beliefs and ideologies. The inability to protest, peacefully and express their disappointments and frustration, would force the Tamils to believe that they are being subjugated by the government in Colombo.

Politics of Eluga Thamil

As indicated, the campaign was organized not only to protest the ongoing socio-political problems of the Tamil people, but also to kindle Tamil nationalism. This is exactly what the slogan of Eluga Thamil means. It asks the Tamil people to rise up. Speakers of the rally called for Tamil people to get on the streets and protest, because, according to them, sending representatives to legislative bodies has no meaning and it will not win Tamil rights. Vigneswaran also to a certain extent, reflected this sentiment.

Moreover, in regard to the meaning and outlook, Eluga Thamil is not that much different from Pongu Thamil, a nationalist event conducted and celebrated by the now defunct Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Therefore, the direction of the Tamil politics under Vigneswaran is clear. It is taking a solid turn towards radical politics, which could, in the long run, turn to violent politics of the past. In the rally, Vigneswaran has been praised and hailed as the champion of Tamil nationalism. I believe that he was called by at least one speaker as the Tamil national leader.

Vigneswaran’s transformation as champion of Tamil rights is sudden and startling. First, during the war, when the Tamil youth were sacrificing their lives, Vigneswaran was nowhere to be seen near the Tamil nationalist politics. As far as I know, he does not have a history of doing anything to promote Tamil interests during the war. He probably did not even visit the war affected areas until the war was over in 2009. Second, in the first year of his tenure in office or to be precise, when Rajapaksa was in power, Vigneswaran was bending backwards to please and work with the government in Colombo. He did not protest until January 2015. Does this mean that the Rajapaksa government was more accommodative than the present government? Obviously not. Therefore, it is clear that the Eluga Thamil event, at least partially, was motivated by politics.

Divided Tamil Polity

The politics of the Eluga Thamil lies in the current power struggle within the TNA. The SS (Sambandan- Sumanthiran) faction and the Vigneswaran faction are at loggerheads. Supported by Sambandan and his loyalists, Sumanthiran has been vying for the leadership of the TNA in the post-Sambandan period. Meanwhile, it seems that Vigneswaran is currently aspiring to lead the Tamil people. Vigneswaran’s aspiration emanates from the fact that he is senior to Sumanthiran and he “seems” to have adequate support among the people in the North.
The problem is that many of Vigneswaran’s recent actions have contributed to serious dissatisfaction about his role within the traditional leadership of the TNA. Some of these actions include Vigneswaran’s disloyalty towards the party in the 2015 general election and the formation of the TPC. Hence, it is possible that the party will not nominate him as the chief ministerial candidate in the next provincial council election. My assumption is that the Eluga Thamil is a preemptive move, which aims to force the TNA to nominate him again.

If the TNA decides not to nominate, Vigneswaran can mobilize the Tamil people under the umbrella of TPC and contest the provincial election. My assessment is that Eluga Thamil has effectively transferred the Tamil political leadership to Vigneswaran and it has dealt a blow to the ambitions of Sumanthiran.

Hence, from a strategic point of view, Eluga Thamil was not a bad idea. It would have sent sufficient messages and signals to TNA leadership. One has to wait and see if the TNA has the capacity to understand these signals and/or if it would succumb to the pressure created by Vigneswwaran. Either way, it is possible that Vigneswaran will emerge as the winner.

Consequences?

Like in the South, Northern political leaders have also used ethnic politics for electoral purposes in the past. Racism was a sure fire vote catcher in the North as well as in the South. When the TULF leaders provoked the Tamil youth, they did not anticipate the possibility that they would lose control of the radical politics. The Tamil leaders were convinced that they could keep the “boys” under control and manipulate indefinitely. But, that was not to be the case. Eventually they became the early victims of the violent Tamil politics.

The recent turn towards radical politics also has the capacity to become violent and force history to repeat itself. Eluga Thamil type events, which are marked by nationalist fervor, could turn violent easily. They need only a minor incident, an ignition, executed by a Tamil nationalist sympathizer or a motivated opponent. If and when these events turn violent, Vigneswaran and his lieutenants can no longer control them. Eluga Thamil leaders urged the Tamil people to get on to the street and protest. The question is, whether the ones who could not stay in the sun for 20 minutes will join the people when they get on to the street.

The possibility of Eluga Thamil type events turning to violence is a long term problem. Two immediate concerns have been created by the rally. One, it could delay the devolution of power through constitutional reform. Two, it could influence the government to tighten restrictions on the North on the claims of threat to national security.

In relation to constitutional reform, I have already pointed out that the progress is painfully slow. Many political groups in the South resist further devolution of power. Ideally, what Tamils should be doing is strengthening the reasons for further devolution, and not undermine them. Now, with the Eluga Thamil protest, anti-devolution groups, especially the Joint Opposition have more excuses to protest concessions. Hence, I expect stronger resistance to a constitutional reform project that confers more powers to the North-Eastern Provinces. This, in turn, would provide the government a reason to delay constitutional reform and drastically water down any proposal to share power.

Moreover, this type of event would provide the armed forces in the North reasons to tighten the security restriction and the control on the people. Potentially, the shrinking of military presence and the releasing land owned by the people could be delayed. A significant danger in this regard could emerge if and when a new government comes to power in Colombo. An unsympathetic government could use the emerging trends in the North to implement repressive policies.

Incapacity

Finally, Eluga Thamil and similar actions by Vigneswaran symbolizes the simplicity of Tamil political thinking. Tamils know how to protest when there is a problem. What they don’t know is how to use their political capital to win aspirations of the Tamil people. Many contemporary Tamil leaders are either incapable or subservient. The Tamil people gave the TNA an overwhelming mandate and parliamentary seats to deal with their problems through political means. The TNA won overwhelming votes in the last two general elections. To date, the TNA could not demonstrate anything as an achievement. It could not have any impacts on even minor issues, like the release of the suspected LTTE cadres or relocating the disappeared.

To a certain extent, the ruling party was dependent on the Tamil support in Parliament and outside, to win both national elections in 2015. The TNA, instead of using their political capital to win concessions, extended unconditional support. As the main opposition party, it does not raise any Tamil issues, let alone national issues, in the national legislature. This ineffectiveness frustrates the Tamil people. The frustration could easily turn aggressive. Hence, more than anybody else, the TNA is responsible for the current trends in the North.

In all disproportion to size and physical heft, WikiLeaks has managed to throw bombs of digital worth into various political processes with marked effect. While its critics and detractors deny and attempt to dispel its influence, the authorities are still concerned. So concerned, in fact, that they have attempted, over the years, to curb the reach and access to the website, and its chief publisher, Julian Assange.

Within these asymmetrical power relations between the publishing outfit and state actors lies Assange, assiduously engaged in activities that have already proven historical in value. They, in the main, have taken place without molestation from the Ecuadorean authorities who front as hosts for him in the London compound.

Hardly having the warmest set of relations with Washington, Ecuador has generally kept the issues it might have with Assange at arm’s length. It was not a state of affairs that would last. Assange has been particularly hot in the current US presidential campaign, with the release of email exchanges connected with the Democratic National Committee, Hillary Clinton’s own emails and the latest Podesta files.

On Saturday, WikiLeaks released the contents of three speeches made by the Democratic nominee for the White House to Goldman Sachs. Clinton was handsomely remunerated, a point that should permanently disable any notion about partiality in the context of regulating Wall Street and its more resilient demons.

Ever since the Clinton campaign started springing more leaks than a refugee vessel, its frazzled managers have been attempting to guard the content of those deliveries with fanatical, if misplaced dedication. Inconsistencies and worries have been flagged, all of these available in email exchanges from Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta.

This week, it became clear that other factors were at play, with Ecuador acknowledging that Assange’s internet access had been restricted. The Ecuadorean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility found itself having to fend off suggestions that Washington had been breathing heavily down the neck of its officials. The emphasis was, rather, on untrammelled sovereignty – the country, after all “does not cede to pressures from other countries”.

To that end, “Ecuador, exercising its sovereign right, has temporarily restricted access to part of its communications systems in its UK embassy.” The stance of not bowing to pressure was less than convincing given the prefacing comments noting how WikiLeaks had “in recent weeks […] published a wealth of documents, impacting the US election campaign.” Furthermore, the country respected “the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states” including “external electoral processes”.

WikiLeaks itself claimed that “multiple US sources” had informed it that US Secretary of State John Kerry “asked Ecuador to stop Assange from publishing Clinton docs during FARC peace negotiations.”

The digital conflict has also thrown up desperate turns. Podesta, whose political impotence in this has been near total, decided last week to take a rather vulgar approach against Assange. It came soon after his own Twitter account had been hacked to display a pro-Trump message. “I bet the lobster risotto,” tweaked Podesta to Assange as he can be seen preparing the dish, “is better than the food at the Ecuadorean embassy.” The snappy response was immediate. “Yes, we get it,” went WikiLeaks. “The elite eat better than the peasants they abuse.”

The digital war that has unfolded during the course of this presidential election is one for narrative and reality. The effort from the Clinton campaign to foil access, seek vengeance on the whistleblower, and draw Russia into the debate has reached maniacal proportions. Some on the Right of US politics have even gone so far as to grace WikiLeaks with their blessings, among them Rep. Jeff Duncan, who even thanked the divine for publisher’s work in frustrating the meek efforts of mainstream media.

Another limb in the campaign that has unfolded in the last few days features efforts to remind the humble reader, and possessor, of stolen documents connected with WikiLeaks, how the intrusive arm of the law might well interfere.

Chris Cuomo of CNN got busy claiming with faux paternalism how “it’s illegal to possess these stolen documents. It’s different for the media. So everything you learn about this, you’re learning from us.” Keeping it mainstream; keeping it tepid; and most importantly, keeping it unreal.

That effort to control access and frame the means which such emails and data can be distributed flies in the face of US jurisprudence. On several occasions in US legal history, courts have noted that the First Amendment protects both the media and the general public, including instances of distributing illegally obtained material.

In New York Times Co. v Sullivan, 376 U.S., 265-6 (1964), the bench laid heavy emphasis on the “persons who do not themselves have access to publishing facilities” as having equal entitlements to those who did. In Bartinicki v Vopper, 532 U.S. 514 (2001), privacy gave way to the interest in publishing matters of public importance, notwithstanding that the phone call intercepts in that case were obtained illegally, then distributed.

Even the less legally aware would note the case of New York Times Co. v United States, 403 U.S. 713, which famously disregarded the fact that the documents in question had been stolen by a third party. What mattered was the nature of the stolen documents’ character and consequences of public disclosure.

As the Clinton campaign emphasises the stolen character of the data in a hope of some miraculous rite of purification, WikiLeaks remains committed in refocusing attention on one of the least attractive contenders for the White House in US political history. Substance does sometimes count more than form, and the messages are there to prove it.

In a letter addressed to Asma Jahangir, the Special Rapporteur of the UN Human Rights Council on Iran, Amnesty International and Human rights Watch, a group of political prisoners in Rejaishahr Prison in Karaj protest against the violation of their basic rights as prisoners.

Referring to themselves as Prisoners of Conscience imprisoned in Hall 12, Ward 4 of Rajaishahr Prison they maintain that prison authorities are committing repeated violations of the provisions of the Rules of Procedure of the Organization of Prisons by refusing to provide the prisoners with the necessary facilities.
They add that the violations are causing prisoners various harms and health challenges and leading to their slow death.

In the letter that political prisoners have written from inside Iran’s Rejaishahr prison, maintains that shortage of over the counter and prescription medications is a serious concern in prison.

These political prisoners write that most prisoners are forced to bear the cost of their medical procedures and medications. Prisoners are forced to get prescription medications from outside of prison, through their families who in turn go through much hurdle to get the medications to inmates inside the prison.

The letter stresses that articles 102 and 103 of the prison Rules of Procedure entrusts the prison authorities with the health of prisoner. All the costs of healthcare and facilities associated with that are also the responsibility of prisons authorities.

They go on to add that Rejaishahr prison, does not have a operational clinic or the presence of necessary medical staff and is at times without nursing staff. The nurses assigned to the clinic cannot even provide prisoners in need of medical care with an intravenous injection.

The letter adds that there is no operation room in Rejaishahr Prison and the health facility was closed down six years ago after rumours around sale of prisoner organs and was never reopened.

The prisoners explain that their families often face serious obstacles in obtaining leave for them to undergo medical examinations or procedures outside. When permission is given, prisoners are reportedly transported to the hospital in demeaning conditions and while there, they are chained to hospital beds.

At times prisoners are reportedly forcefully returned back to prison by the authorities, without completion of the medical tests and procedures.

The letter adds that Rejaishahr Prison has a number of prisoners suffering from Hepatitis and AIDS who never receive adequate care. It also names Mohsen Dogmehchi, Shahrokh Zamani, Alireza Karami Kheyrabadi, Mansour Radpour, Afshin Osanloo and Mehdi Zaleh as some of the prisoners who have died in prison as a result of the lack of timely medical care and negligence of prison authorities.

The prisoners report that hot water is never provided in washrooms and sometimes not even in showers.

The aging piping reportedly often causes sewage overflows on various levels of the prison building. They say prison food, in contravention of prison rules, lacks the necessary calories and nutrition and prisoners are continuously in a half starved conditions. According to the letter and use of expired and unsanitary food handling has caused many cases of food poisoning.

The authorities are said to have no regard for the standards stipulated in the prison rules for space and amount of light required for each prisoner who are afforded less than half of these standards.

Ward 12 of Rejaishahr, where many political prisoners are, does not have telephone facilities while other wards hosting prisoners with criminal charges, have uninterrupted access to telephones at all times.

Meanwhile the prisoners report that despite presence of prison regulations protecting prisoners’ dignity, prisoners are often subjected to insults and inappropriate searches which are at times carried out under threats of or actual violence.

Ramazan Ahmad Kamal, Syrian political prisoner held in Rejaishahr, is cited as an example of such violence. The prisoners was reportedly beaten severely by one of the prison guards putting him in coma for a week. Kamal’s efforts, and those of other prisoners who have been subjected to similar beatings, to file complaints and hold guards accountable for such deeds have been futile.

By Siraj Wahab

Leading experts in Arab affairs, columnists and journalists feel that the race for the American presidential elections remains wide open and evenly poised.

They described the outcome of the three presidential debates as inconclusive and unclear.

For some, Hillary Clinton came out on top; for others Donald Trump, despite his brashness, managed to retain his appeal to his core base of voters.

For Faisal Al-Yafai, chief columnist at the Abu Dhabi-based The National newspaper, watching the three debates, gave one a sense of what he called the vibrancy and pageantry of American democracy.

“That has its pros and cons. The vibrancy is that you see so many people, tens of millions of people, watching three debates of 90-minute each. Which is fantastic. The downside is that it is really about the public performance of politics rather than real politics or real policies. Which is a shame.”

He said there was no doubt that Clinton had come across as more presidential.

“To her credit, she has managed to deal with Trump in a way that no Republican contender could. You have to give her enormous credit for that. None of the Republican contenders was able to land a blow on him, but Clinton managed to do that in the three debates,” he said.

However, he adds a word of caution.

“I don’t think you can count Trump out yet because, I think, the debates were important to some parts of America but not to all parts. Those people who like Trump genuinely like Trump. They don’t really care what comes across in the debate. To them, the debates are just part of what they consider the mainstream media and the establishment,” he said.

So who does Al-Yafai think will win? “It is still unknown who will win. Clinton is, in my opinion, very far ahead. But, as I said, the people who like Trump will vote for him regardless of what the media says or the establishment says. His supporters don’t care about his nastiness. They care about their candidate. Not only will they not believe what was said during the debates, the negative commentary, etc., they will go out in substantial numbers to vote for him.”

Al-Yafai said whoever became the president of America, it matters to the Middle East because of America’s influence in the region.

“Most Middle East watchers probably on balance prefer Clinton because she is a known quantity in the way that Trump is not. At the same time, the issues that most Middle Eastern countries have with the United States go far beyond one particular candidate, one particular party or one particular president. I think Clinton would be better at handling some of the difficulties that the region faces. We look to the Americans to be partners with us on the big challenges of the Middle East, such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq. With that in mind, we would prefer Clinton.”

But, he said, Clinton is only the best of what is on offer. “There has not been a presidential candidate that I have seen yet who understands the relationship that America needs with the Middle East and the relationship that Arabs deserve with America.”

His verdict: “You can’t count Trump out yet.”

Very precise but despised

For Raghida Dergham, New York-based columnist and bureau chief for Al-Hayat pan-Arab publication, Clinton is very scripted, very organized and very precise which is what she should be if she is running for such an office.

“Trump thinks it is all right to simply change the rules for the debates. It is very embarrassing to witness such name-calling in a debate for such a high office. I have watched earlier debates from 20 and 30 years ago and I saw people discuss policies. These debates are more of a show than an opportunity to debate matters of importance,” she told Arab News.

She does not think that the debates have won any supporters for Clinton from among those who do not like her to begin with.

“People despise her for being part of the establishment. They do not trust her. There are strong feelings against her by many people. I don’t think she came out of the debate in any way that will change the minds of those who are already sure of where they stand,” she said. “Clinton was, however, probably effective with those who are undecided and who are looking for something that will sway them one way or another.”

Through the debates, she showed that she has the temperament to lead rather than just to react and be amusing or different. “She projected that she could be in the White House and take on this big responsibility,” said Dergham. “Those who dislike her are going to say she did not do a good job in the past so why should we believe her now? Those who are opposed to Clinton are not only opposed to Clinton, they are opposed to the (Obama) administration.”

Dergham said she was very disturbed by Trump’s “simple-mindedness” when it comes to Middle Eastern issues that are of concern to the world.

“The way he speaks about Russian President Vladimir Putin is frightening because he does not look at the actions of Russia in the region. He is only focused on saying from his point of view who won, who lost. He thinks the Russians have won, the (Obama) administration has lost. I mean both — Russia and the Obama administration — have contributed to the misery of what is going on in Syria. But it is really offensive that Trump looks at this as who won and who lost when so many people are dying and suffering and when there is so much human tragedy.”

As somebody from the region, Dergham has multiple concerns. “I am concerned about Trump’s approach to all the people of the Middle East as well as to Muslims and to immigrants. I am disturbed by his dismissal of people en masse. I don’t think he is going to reset Obama’s administration’s policies. Clinton will try to reset ties with the Gulf countries, probably because she knows it is time to reset the relationship. Trump will play outside the rules and not inside them. That would probably lead some to say it is time to do that because playing by the rules, we only got where we did not want to be in Syria and in Mosul both of which are a catastrophe.”

Don’t count Trump out

So who won the debates? For Dergham, “Those who love Trump, love his brash approach; they love his facial expressions and they love that he called Clinton “a nasty woman.” They are the voters who are decided. With the undecided, I think, Clinton won the last debate.”

Her verdict: “The race is still open. It is always open until the last minute. You can never tell what surprises might come up. I think there could be a major event that might change things. It is always open until the votes are counted.”

Abeer Mishkhas, London-based Saudi journalist with Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, felt Wednesday night’s debate improved Clinton’s chances because “Trump couldn’t get beyond his style of attacking and demeaning her. On the other hand, she was calm. She was in control. She was very statesmanly, or rather, states-womanly. She presented a very good argument for being president of the United States.”

She said whenever Trump talks about a foreign country, one gets the feeling that he is unaware of foreign policy issues and of how foreign policy is conducted.

“Trump takes a very simplistic view of how things are done. He talks about Putin and he says, ‘He likes me.’ He doesn’t know what he is talking about. Compare this to Clinton who served as secretary of state. She knows exactly what constitutes foreign policy. She has the experience and she seems clear about what she is going to do.”

Mishkhas does not like a couple of things about Clinton. “For instance, I don’t agree with her passive stand on the Palestinian issue. As US secretary of state, she was always pro-Israel. She did not support the Palestinians during their most difficult times when they were basically being massacred.”

She thinks Clinton might be tempted to go to war with Iran to demonstrate American might and to show that America is a superpower.

“She is just the way she is. She would gladly go to war with Iran just to prove that she is as tough as anyone else,” said Mishkhas.

She feels Clinton did not do well in the previous two debates. “I don’t know who instructed her to keep smiling. That did not give the correct impression of her. It seemed as if she was not ready. She took Trump lightly and talked about petty issues. She should have concentrated on policies and what exactly she wants to do. In Debate 3 on Wednesday night, however, she came out on top.”

Her verdict: “It is very hard to tell because when you listen to Trump supporters, they seem happy with what he is doing. They are the people who are not going to be influenced by TV debates anyway. It is very tricky. The race is still wide open.”

For Dr. Khaled Al-Shoqran, head of the Al-Rai Center for Strategic Studies in Amman, Clinton was the clear winner. “I think Clinton did better. She is fully aware of political and international issues. Trump is unacceptable because he knows very little about things outside the United States,” he told Arab News.

“Clinton has a good vision and she has good ideas for solving Middle Eastern problems. She is very vocal on Iraq, Syria and Yemen which is good,” he said. “She has a plan and she will be very successful as president of the United States. She did very well in all three debates.”

His verdict: “Clinton is far ahead.”

The 2016 Republican presidential primary was rigged. It wasn’t rigged by the Republicans, the Democrats, Russians, space aliens, or voters. It was rigged by the owners of television networks who believed that giving one candidate far more coverage than others was good for their ratings. The CEO of CBS Leslie Moonves said of this decision: “It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.” Justifying that choice based on polling gets the chronology backwards, ignores Moonves’ actual motivation, and avoids the problem, which is that there ought to be fair coverage for all qualified candidates (and a democratic way to determine who is qualified).

The 2016 Democratic presidential primary was rigged. It wasn’t rigged by bankers, misogynists, Russians, Republicans, or computer hackers. It was rigged by the Democratic National Committee and its co-conspirators in the media, many of whom have helpfully confessed (in case it wasn’t obvious) in emails leaked from the DNC and from John Podesta. The DNC chose Hillary Clinton and worked hard to make sure that she “won.” Nobody has produced a hint of evidence as to who leaked the emails that added unnecessary confirmation of this rigging, but they should be thanked for informing us, whoever they are.

The FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s misuse of email was as rigged as the non-prosecution of the CEO of Wells Fargo. The U.S. political system is bought and paid for. Without millions of dollars to funnel to television networks for advertising, any candidate is rigged right out of participating. This rigging of the system is not fixed by someone like Donald Trump pretending for a while that he won’t take bribes, that he’ll spend only his own money, because most people don’t have that kind of money to spend. This rigging is not fixed by making someone like Hillary Clinton take her bribes through her family foundation or requiring that her political action committees remain theoretically separate from the campaign they are collaborating hand-in-glove with, because money buys power.

The debates are rigged by a private entity with no official status that calls itself the Commission on Presidential Debates and transforms open debates among multiple candidates into exclusively bipartisan joint appearances with many large and fine points negotiated beforehand.

Actual governance of the United States is rigged. Congress plans to attempt to ram through a number of intensely unpopular measures just after the election, including a supplemental spending bill for more wars and including the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The hope is that most people will have tuned out after the election circus, and that most of them will forget what happened 2 or 4 years later.

The demonization of Vladimir Putin is rigged. Nobody has seen evidence that he or his government did us the favor of informing us of the DNC’s corruption. He proposed a ban on cyber “war” that was rejected by the United States, for goodness sake. There’s no evidence that Russia shot down an airplane in Ukraine or invaded Ukraine or seized Crimea or plotted attacks on the United States. The United States pulled out of the ABM treaty, expanded NATO to Russia’s border, built missile bases, arranged military “exercises,” facilitated a Ukrainian coup, and pushed a string of hostile lies. Russia has shown even more restraint than your typical U.S. voter (who usually sits home and does not vote, especially in primaries).

Military spending is rigged. Nobody knows it amounts to over half of U.S. discretionary spending. Nobody knows it’s as much in the U.S. as in the rest of the world (allies and otherwise) combined. Nobody pays attention to the bribes from war profiteers, or to the threats held over Congress members to pull weapons jobs out of districts or states. Supporters of both big candidates claim their candidate plans to cut military spending. Both candidates have said the exact opposite. The debates and interviews steer clear of the whole topic.

The shapes of the districts are blatantly rigged by gerrymandering. The existence of the Senate, in which Rhode Island and Wyoming each have as much say as California is rigged against the popular will. The electoral college is rigged against the popular will and in favor of concentrating national campaigns in a handful of “swing states.”

Voter registration is rigged. A handful of states have now made it automatic, as most states have long-since done for military draft registration. In the rest of the country, thousands of young people run around registering voters, imagining they are engaged in “activism.” Meanwhile, the right to vote can be denied to anyone by claiming they aren’t registered.

People’s names are stripped from voting rolls through a so-called justice system that brands them as felons, and through the careful rigging of those rolls by corrupt and partisan state governments that intentionally strip out people likely to vote for a particular party. This includes racial profiling. Bob Fitrakis, Harvey Wasserman, Greg Palast and others have reported extensively on these practices.

Election day is rigged as well. It’s not a holiday. Most people have to work. Poor districts and racial minority districts tend to have fewer machines and longer lines. ID requirements are used to deny people the right to vote. Intimidation and racial profiling by partisan activists serve the same function of rigging the election. The myths and lies about the virtually nonexistent phenomenon of “voter fraud” also serve to rig the election.

The election machines are also rigged. That is to say: instead of verifiable paper ballots publicly hand-counted in front of observers from all interested parties in each polling place, we have a faith-based system of voting on black-box machines that can never, even in theory, be checked for accuracy. These machines have been very easily hacked in demonstrations. These machines have visibly flipped votes before the eyes (and cameras) of countless voters. These machines have almost certainly played a key role in flipping the results of numerous elections.

Now, the wider the margin of victory, the less likely an electronic flipping. And the fact that machines can easily be used to steal an election does not mean that they always will be. But it was very odd during the late summer of 2016 to watch the U.S. media announce that these machines were totally unreliable — just what many of us had been saying for years. But the media said this in order to accuse Russia of planning to sabotage the coming U.S. election, or in order to accuse Russia of exactly what these media reports themselves did: plant seeds of doubt in U.S. minds.

Those doubts should be there. People should watch for visible problems with machines and with partisan and racist intimidators, and report all such to 1-866-OUR-VOTE, to county clerks, to secretaries of state, and to corporate and independent media. Then we should work for necessary reforms, including a respectful cessation of the U.S. government’s routine practice of interfering in elections and overthrowing governments in other people’s countries — a practice that has clearly resulted in the U.S. media projecting such behavior on others.

Ultimately, an unrigging of the U.S. system might take the form of amending the U.S. Constitution to slip in words like these:

The rights protected by the Constitution of the United States are the rights of natural persons only.

Artificial entities, such as corporations, limited liability companies, and other entities, established by the laws of any State, the United States, or any foreign state shall have no rights under this Constitution and are subject to regulation by the People, through Federal, State, or local law. The privileges of artificial entities shall be determined by the People, through Federal, State, or local law.

The judiciary shall not construe the spending of money to influence elections to be speech under the First Amendment.

All elections for President and members of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate shall be entirely publicly financed. No political contributions shall be permitted to any federal candidate, from any other source, including the candidate. No political expenditures shall be permitted in support of any federal candidate, or in opposition to any federal candidate, from any other source, including the candidate. The Congress shall, by statute, provide limitations on the amounts and timing of the expenditures of such public funds and provide criminal penalties for any violation of this section.

State and local governments shall regulate, limit, or prohibit contributions and expenditures, including a candidate’s own contributions and expenditures, for the purpose of influencing in any way the election of any candidate for state or local public office or any state or local ballot measure.

The right of the individual U.S. citizen to vote and to directly elect all candidates by popular vote in all pertinent local, state, and federal elections shall not be violated. Citizens will be automatically registered to vote upon reaching the age of 18 or upon becoming citizens at an age above 18, and the right to vote shall not be taken away from them. Votes shall be recorded on paper ballots, which shall be publicly counted at the polling place. Election day shall be a national holiday.

Nothing contained in this amendment shall be construed to abridge the freedom of the press. During a designated campaign period of no longer than six months, free air time shall be provided in equal measure to all candidates for federal office on national, state, or district television and radio stations, provided that each candidate has, during the previous year, received the supporting signatures of at least five percent of their potential voting-age constituents. The same supporting signatures shall also place the candidate’s name on the ballot and require their invitation to participate in any public debate among the candidates for the same office.