By Faisal J. Abbas*

The royal decree to finally allow women to drive in Saudi Arabia will definitely be remembered as a landmark, positive moment in the Kingdom’s history. This courageous decision will single-handedly end what was regarded as a form of discrimination against females, and solve a long-lasting logistical nightmare for many Saudi women who will — from June 2018 — be able to travel the streets of their own country freely.

Much can be said in criticism of the illogical ban and the extremely long time it took to reverse it. This is however certainly a case of “better late than never”; and we should not for a single moment underestimate the significance of this bold move by Riyadh.

We should also not isolate this decision from a series of rapid reforms which have literally transformed many aspects of daily life in the Kingdom. In less than two years — and as part of the ambitious Vision 2030, which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spearheads — we have seen the powers of the religious police curbed, an entertainment authority established, women’s sport encouraged and many Saudi females appointed to top jobs in the country. Just a few days ago, we saw women being allowed to enter football stadiums and others dancing in the street as they celebrated the Saudi National Day.

Are all targets of this vision achieved? Absolutely not. Is what was achieved so far sufficient? No.

However, no reasonable person can deny the significance of the changes mentioned above — particularly given the speed at which they were introduced and the challenges that surrounded them.

Indeed, with low oil prices, regional wars and political conflicts, many observers expected internal social reforms to take a back seat; clearly, they were shown to be wrong when Riyadh proved that there is no better time to reform than when your back is against the wall.

The decision to allow women to drive makes it clear that internal reforms and development are at the forefront of the national transformation plan. It also makes it clear that the Saudi government is adamant that there cannot be any reform unless it involves the whole society, i.e. women must be included.

On the other hand, the way society has accepted and absorbed the rapid and massive changes that have occurred in the past two years is a clear indicator the Kingdom is opening up on all levels. Indeed, we as a society have successfully provided the correct answer to all those who warned us about such reforms, saying that rape, corruption and sins will spread as soon as we open up. The answer was that such warnings were all unfounded.

The same fear-mongering came with calls to allow women to drive. However, as the official statement declared, the decision took time to brew and will take nine more months to implement to ensure that all the traffic safety requirements are met, driving academies are set up and the proper infrastructure is put in place.

What is also remarkable, according to the official statement, is that the majority of Saudi Arabia’s Council of Senior Scholars endorsed the decision. This definitely sends the right message, and one we knew all along: There is nothing in Islam that religiously prohibits women driving, and the driving ban was a temporary social matter which will now no longer exist.

So — with a new dynamic leadership, an ambitious vision and a more literate, open society — the stars were aligned for this historic decision to be made, and the government made it clear it didn’t want to waste the chance.

• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News.  He can be reached on Twitter @FaisalJAbbas

Czech government agencies and secret services are studying the possible ways by which Czech military equipment could reach Azerbaijan, 420on.cz reports.

According to the press attaché of Czechoslovak Group, when selling equipment the company strictly adheres to laws and international rules.

To export military equipment from the country, the company must receive the consent of the ministry of internal affairs, the ministry of foreign affairs and that of defense. The final decision is then taken by the ministry of industry and trade.

A defense ministry representative said that over the past few years the ministry has not considered exporting military materials to Azerbaijan. According to him, it is unknown how the equipment could reach there.

The Azerbaijani military began last week large-scale exercises which it said are involving 15,000 troops as well as hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers, cannons and other military hardware. Photographs released by it showed two columns of Czech-made Dana self-propelled howitzers and RM-70 multiple-launch rocket systems joining the drills.

The government of the Czech Republic claimed, however, that it had not authorized the newly disclosed delivery to Azerbaijan of Czech-made heavy artillery system.

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Geopolitically, in the context of a threatening Asian security environment, the Second US-Japan-India Trilateral Ministerial Dialogue of the Foreign Ministers of the three nations was held in New York on September 18 2017 on the side-lines of the UNGA Session acquires added significance.

Sticking to diplomatic niceties and avoiding overt references to the Chan Threat to Indo Pacific stability, the communiques issued by the three nations on conclusion of the Second Trilateral Dialogue when analysed leaves no doubt that each point of emphasis in the strategic convergences highlighted on the discussions in the Trilateral Dialogue alluded to China without any ambiguity.

For sake of analysis and to highlight India’s policy formulations on Asian security which coincide strategically with those of the United States and Japan, the contents of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs note covering the Trilateral Dialogue posted on its web-site is taken as the bench-mark for analysis in this Paper.

The Indian Foreign Ministry in its Communique emphasised that all three nations laid great emphasis on the following foreign policy formulations, when summarised as follows: (1) Freedom of navigation and overflights needed to be ensured in the Indo Pacific Region (2) Respect for international laws, and (3) Peaceful resolution of disputes. India also emphasised and the others concurred that on Connectivity Issues, these should be based on international laws and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations.

On nuclear and missile challenges to regional security posed by North Korea, India was quite forthcoming in (1) Deploring North Korea’s recent actions (2) North Korea’s proliferation linkages must be explored, and that (3) Those involved be held accountable. India’s unequivocal support would have gladdened the US and Japanese foreign policy makers by standing with them on a security challenge which is live for both the United States and Japan.

India’s additional call for investigating North Korea’s linkages in building-up its nuclear weapons and ICBM arsenal on accountability of those involved alludes directly to the China-Pakistan linkages and their WMD assistance to North Korea.

Similarly, the main points of emphasis stated above regarding freedom of navigation and overflights and respect for international laws and sovereignty are undoubtedly has China in the crosshairs. After all, what China has brazenly done in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea is a gross violation of such norms and challenge to international rules-based order. Here China’s open defiance of The Hague Tribunals award against China on the South China Sea disputes needs to be recalled.

The United States and Japan sharing India’s concerns on China’s Connectivity Initiatives challenge which affect India’s national security interests with particular reference to China’s CPEC traversing Indian territory under illegal occupation of Pakistan, namely the Northern reaches of CPEC, should be a welcome step of support. The CPEC does violate India’s sovereignty and China emerges as a Pakistan-accomplice in putting down India strategically.

Interestingly, in Japan, the coverage of the Trilateral Dialogue besides covering the above aspects further highlights two notable aspects in the maritime security domain and these were (1) Develop strategically important ports and infrastructure in the Indo Pacific Region, and (2) Boost Trilateral Maritime Security and maritime security cooperation.

On the above, one already finds movement in this direction in terms of Japan being formally accepted as the third participant in the Annual Malabar Naval Exercises hithertofore being held bilaterally between the United States and India. One could now expect greater increased Trilateral Naval Cooperation in terms of the Indian Ocean. Joint India-Japan Connectivity Initiatives linking Indo Pacific with Africa as a counter to China’s OBOR are already visible.

This analysis would be incomplete without a comparative review of the First Inaugural Trilateral Dialogue held in New York on September 29 2015. The Communique then listed on India’s Foreign Ministry website list all the major points that are listed in the Second Trilateral Dialogue 2017, but there were two additional points that were highlighted. These two points emphasised in 2015 were as follows: (1) Centrality of ASEAN in multilateral political and security architecture of the region, and (2) Importance of East Asia Summit as a premiers-level forum for discussion of key political and security issues.

The above omissions may be inadvertent this year but I am led to believe that reservations on ASEAN –centrality in regional political and security architecture may be arising from ASEAN having been open to division by China on the South China Sea issue and not unitedly confronting China on territorial dispute foisted by China on some ASEAN countries.

China’s reactions on the Trilateral Dialogue as articulated by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson was on expected lines, especially on points critical of China, though only alluded. In keeping with China’s current policy trends, China has been trying to drive a wedge between India and Japan by referring to India positively and negatively on Japan. In other terms China is alluding that India stands to lose greatly if it continues to reinforce its strategic partnership with Japan.

The Trilateral Dialogues between the United States, Japan and India commenced during US President Bush Jr tenure though at the bureaucrats’ level. However, the initiative lost much of its steam in later years and until 2015. This presumably arose from the ‘hedging strategies’ of both the United States and India in the last decade or so.

The revival of the US-Japan-India Trilateral Dialogue in 2015 and that too reinforced by its elevation to Foreign Ministers-level has coincided with the emergence of two strong and assertive leaders in Japan and India in the persona of PM Abe and PM Modi. It also coincides with the gradual fading away of both United States and India’s ‘China Hedging Strategies.”

Concluding, it needs to be strongly emphasised that geopolitical imperatives foisted by China’s not so peaceful military rise and its aggressive nationalism under current Chinese President Xi Jinping destabilising the Indo Pacific Region places a current higher call on the United States, Japan and India to strengthen their Strategic Partnerships to a level which dissuades China from actively endangering regional and global security directly or through its proxy nuclear states creations like North Korea and Pakistan.

Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena said that the National Economic Council expects to take immediate steps to stop importing all non-essential food items, as well as unhealthy food into the country.

He made these remarks at the opening of the Agricultural Exhibition held at the Training Institute of Department of Agriculture in Bombuwala, Kalutara.

Addressing the gathering, Sirisena further said that more than Rs 25 billion rupees is spent annually to import essential food items. President Sirisena said that it is essential to produce food required for our consumption in our own country. He pointed out that self-sufficiency in food was the identity and the culture of our country for the past thousands of years and it should be protected. He also said it is important that we give value to our products, if we are to help the agriculture economy as well as the national economy.

The battle of National food production will commence next month, to make a new transformation in the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka, while minimizing the loss incurred due to the recent drought and floods that affected the country, reducing the agricultural production. The relevant circulars and instruction leaflets have already been issued to all institutions, Sirisena added.

Furthermore, under the battle of National food production program, it is expected to cultivate all the lands in the public and private sectors, and the government will take steps to encourage those who are cultivating and to take legal action against those who do not cultivate, the President said that adding he believe that everyone will join hands together in this initiative considering it as a humanitarian operation to eliminate poverty from the country, but not in a way imposing legal actions or constitutional law.

Russia has conducted a successful test launch of the RS-12M Topol intercontinental ballistic missile, the Defense Ministry said in a statement, adding that the test data would be used for the development of future missile penetration aids.

The test launch was performed at the Kapustin Yar range in Russia’s southern Astrakhan Region, the ministry said, adding that the test warhead successfully hit its target at a range in Kazakhstan.

The launch was aimed at testing the advanced combat equipment of the Russian missiles, and the experiment data obtained during the test will be used to develop prospective means of breaching ‘enemy’ missile defenses for use in Russian ballistic missiles, the ministry said in the statement.

Last week, the Russian Strategic Missile Force tested its modern Yars intercontinental ballistic missile. A solid propellant missile carrying a multiple warhead payload, Yars is a modern variant of the Topol-M missile series, designed to replace the dated liquid-propellant UR-100N missiles, which are better known under their NATO designation SS-19 Stiletto.

Two weeks ago, the Russian military conducted another test launch of the Yars missile, which is capable of hitting different targets up to 12,000km away.

A test of the Russian RS-28 Sarmat super-heavy thermonuclear missile, designated SS-X-30 Satan 2 by NATO, could be held in October, TASS reports.

(RFE/RL) — The top U.S. military commander has warned against pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, saying doing so would complicate U.S. efforts to reach agreements with other nations.

General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the comments September 26 in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

His remarks come as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to criticize Tehran, and the landmark 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama in conjunction with other world powers.

The agreement curtailed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for lifting punishing Western sanctions. Trump has called the deal “an embarrassment.”

Dunford told senators that Iran was complying with the deal.

But he also warned that Iran continued to destabilize countries and conflicts across the Middle East, and supported “terrorist organizations in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.”

Asked what would happen if the Trump administration walked away from the 2015 deal, Dunford said it would make it harder to strike other agreements.

“It makes sense to me that our holding up agreements that we have signed, unless there is a material breech, would have an impact on others’ willingness to sign agreements,” Dunford said.

Trump has until October 16 to certify to Congress that Iran is complying.

Then Congress would have 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.

A mosque in the southern Swedish city of Orebro has been completely destroyed in a suspected arson attack, a fire department official said on Tuesday.

Firefighters arrived at the site at 2 a.m. local time (0000GMT) but the mosque was completely gutted, according to Orebro fire chief Ulf Jacobsen.

No one was injured in the blaze, Jacobsen said, adding that evidence pointed to it being an arson attack.

The Orebro mosque — which has a capacity for 250 people — was built in 2007 in the Vivalla neighborhood, home to Muslims from various countries.

The incident came after another suspected arson attack last May partially destroyed a Shia mosque in the Stockholm suburb of Jakobsberg.

An investigation by the Islamic Cooperation Council in Sweden revealed in 2015 that seven out of 10 mosques in the country had been attacked.

Sweden is a strong draw for many migrants and about 15 percent of its population was born abroad. An estimated 100,000 Turks live in the Nordic country.
Original article

Twenty-seven years ago this week, the “first and last” Soviet congress of delegates of both national-territorial formations and of peoples without their own statehood took place in Moscow, a meeting now recalled if at all as part of Mikhail Gorbachev’s effort to mobilize smaller non-Russian peoples against those having union republics.

As one of its participants, Vakhtang Ketsba, recalls, “the [two-day] congress took place in the building of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet. In its work, took part 106 delegates, of whom 72 were deputies of soviets of various levels, who represented 34 autonomous formations and 106 social movements” (ekhokavkaza.com/a/28756545.html).

Gorbachev was represented by Rafik Shinaov, the chairman of the Supreme Soviet’s Council of Nationalities; and the meeting thus “took place with the obvious blessing and even support of the central party-soviet organs,” something Ketsba says appeared “quite unexpected” given Moscow’s opposition to demands for territorial units from nations without them.

Indeed, that is the key point. Throughout Soviet history with the exception of this meeting, Moscow has divided nations into two categories, those with recognized political territories and those without, and in almost every case has treated the former far better than it has treated the latter. That is a tradition the Russian Federation has followed since that time.

Gorbachev in his desperation and confusion was prepared to overlook this distinction, to bring together not just representatives of those nations and nationalities which formally had their own statehood in the form of union or autonomous republics but also those of peoples without such recognition.

And today at a time when the non-Russian republics are again under threat from Moscow, this raises the question: what can nations without officially recognized territories inside the borders of the Russian Federation do? The answer may be to consider the September 22-23, 1991, meeting and work to form a kind of committee of correspondence among themselves.

On the on hand, there is a danger that some in the Putin regime will try to coopt any such group if it cannot prevent it – and in the age of social media its ability to do the latter is probably much less than many think – and use it as the basis for launching an even broader attack on the autonomous state formations within the Russian Federation.

But on the other hand, there are some real possibilities for improving the lives of the more than 180 peoples of the Russian Federation that do not have their own state territories either by drawing up additional programs like the special subsidies handed out to the numerically small peoples of the North or by coming up with new extra-territorial ideas.

At least some of these nations may ultimately decide to pursue a territorial solution to their problems, seeking official government statehood, like some of the peoples without such territories did in the years after the 1990 meeting. In any case, it is time to rescue that meeting from neglect and focus on what such peoples might do, drawing from its lessons.

By Ana Maria Touma

Despite being one of the UK’s leading proponents of Brexit, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told media during a short visit to Bucharest on Monday that Romanians are valued members of society.

Romanians are valued members of British society and the United Kingdom would be “crazy to let them go back to Romania,” the head of Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Boris Johnson, said in an interview with Romania’s top public news agency on Monday.

“We love them – they’re making massive contributions to the UK economy, to British culture,” Johnson said during the short and somewhat unconventional trip to the Romanian capital. “I was mayor of London. When you walk around London you see lots of Romanian shops, a lot of Romanian people doing all sorts of things, every job in society … we want to ensure that they feel secure, and that their rights are protected,” he added.

Johnson arrived in Bucharest late on Monday and met with his Romanian counterpart, Teodor Melescanu. However, the two top diplomats did not give a joint statement, as protocol would usually dictate. By Tuesday midday, the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs still had not issued any official press release.

The only publicly visible trace of the meeting was a Twitter post by Johnson showing a photo of himself with Melescanu at the residence of the British ambassador on Monday.

The head of Foreign Office is taking a two-day visit to the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. The Foreign Office said on Monday that Britain wants to continue cooperating closely with EU members on matters such as “security and defence policy, countering Russian influence” and trade.

However, for Bucharest, the anticipated post-Brexit situation has fomented concern about the estimated 400,000 Romanian citizens living and working in Britain. The country is keeping them a priority and has been one of the strongest advocates of maintaining the free circulation of labour in exchange for Britain’s access to the European single market after Brexit.

Johnson pointed out that Britain was not planning to close its borders to talented immigrants, but the UK reserves its right to control its borders. Johnson also said that he was in Bucharest to outline British Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans for after Brexit.

Earlier on Monday in Prague, he reiterated May’s promise that the UK would continue to honour all existing European Union rules during the two-year transition period after Brexit in 2019. At the weekend, The Daily Telegraph said Johnson had demanded a series of assurances and wanted Britain to be able to sign trade deals during the transition period.

Johnson’s trip is taking place as EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and his team meet their British counterparts for four days of talks until Thursday.

Johnson has been a staunch supporter of Brexit and in 2013 engaged in some hardline anti-immigration discourse, just before Romanians and Bulgarians were granted free access to the UK labour market.

At the time he said that it was important to “look at the impact of the accession countries of Romania and Bulgaria,” saying he was concerned about them.

“We’ll support immigration by talented people but I am concerned immigration from Bulgaria and Romania, unless properly handled, will lead to an increase in rough sleeping of the kind seen from previous accession countries,” he said in 2013.

Despite the absence of a world government, efforts to supply global public goods continue. But different perceptions of fairness sometimes undermine such efforts as illustrated by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change.

By Parkash Chander*

A public good is a good whose consumption by some individual(s) does not diminish its availability to other individuals. Examples are national defence, radio broadcast, or clean air. They can be made available to additional consumers at minimal or no cost.

As markets cannot price these goods, markets fail in the provision of public goods. Public goods have, therefore, to be provided by the public sector or the government and cannot be left to the market and private incentives.

National vs Global Public Goods (GPGs)

There are two types of public goods: – national and global public goods (GPGs). The latter are goods with benefits – or damages in the case of public bads – that extend across countries and regions. Prominent examples include controlling climate change or trans-boundary haze from forest fires.

Another interesting example is nuclear disarmament. Possession of nuclear weapons by a country creates a fear in the minds of citizens of the rest of world. Thus, nuclear disarmament is a global public good because everyone would feel less fearful if no country has nuclear weapons.

However, the nation states possessing nuclear weapons can be pressurised, but not forced to give up their nuclear weapons against their will. Thus, only negotiations and a voluntary agreement among all countries with nuclear weapons can lead to nuclear disarmament and thereby provide this global public good.

Controlling Contagious Diseases as GPG

Controlling and eradicating a contagious disease – such as small pox or polio – is also a global public good because it would benefit people across countries and regions. However, given the contagious nature of these diseases, no country alone can control and eradicate them unless all other countries also do so. Thus, this global public good cannot be provided – that is the contagious diseases cannot be controlled and eradicated – unless there is coordination and cooperation among all countries.

Another example of a global public good is controlling international terrorism, as a terrorist act in any country creates fear and a feeling of insecurity among people across countries and regions.

In addition, the international broadcast of a world cup match can be considered a global public good. Thanks to modern technology, broadcasting – which is used to be a local public good – has been transformed into to a global public good. The matches can now be watched and enjoyed by many people across countries and regions and someone watching and enjoying the match does not imply that others will have less of the match to watch and enjoy.

In the future, with the application of new technologies, an increasing number of national public goods will turn into GPGs. Who would provide such goods?

Since GPGs, by definition, can be provided to additional consumers at minimal or zero cost, countries with large populations, such as China and India, can benefit from the provision of GPGs far more than countries with smaller populations. China and India, therefore, are likely to take the lead in providing GPGs in the future.

Mitigating Climate Change: ‘Granddaddy’ of GPGs

Mitigating climate change is a global public good because citizens of all countries stand to benefit from it and some people benefitting from it does not mean others would benefit less. In fact, mitigating climate change is sometimes called the ‘granddaddy’ of all global public goods. No other global public good can highlight the difficulty of providing global public goods better than mitigating climate change.

Achieving governance on climate change is difficult. For one thing, there is no world government that can supply and regulate the provision of this global public good. Given that the provision of global public goods must be voluntary, the United Nations is too weak to enforce rules on countries. Sovereignty safeguards the independence of individual nation states and their citizens in this sphere as in others. A nation state can be pressurised but not forced to contribute to the supply of a global public good.

Even with the absence of a world government, the world does not lack efforts to tackle climate change. On the contrary, several countries have attempted to negotiate an international agreement on mitigating climate change that is voluntarily acceptable to all countries and regions as seen in the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement.

However, arriving at such an agreement is a slow and difficult process as the agreement should not only balance the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change such that each country is better-off, i.e. benefits net of cost for each country are positive, but it should also be fair to all countries.

Fairness in Global Public Goods

The concept of fairness usually complicates international bargaining. Fairness is a tricky issue – while people are indeed concerned about fairness, what is perceived as fair is malleable. For this reason, issues of perceived fairness have often caused logjams in climate change negotiations. Indeed, one of the sticking points in climate change negotiations has been that of fairness.

The thinking in the developing countries is that the industrialised/developed countries have already used up much of the limited carbon space and, thus, they are the ones who should take the responsibility for controlling climate change and leave most of the remaining carbon space for the developing countries.

In contrast, the current US administration believes that it is not fair that the US emissions of greenhouse gases must begin to decline immediately while those of the developing countries may continue to rise, even if at a slower pace, for some more time. Indeed, the US President Donald Trump has said the Paris Agreement is soft on leading polluters like China and India.

Although the Paris Agreement reflects international effort to forge cooperation for controlling climate change, it remains to be seen whether the differences among key players can be resolved. Given different interests as well as dissimilar perceptions of fairness each stakeholder has, much needs to be sorted out so that countries can agree and commit to a path to mitigate climate change.

* Parkash Chander was recently NTUC Professor of International Economic Relations at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is Professor of Economics and Executive Director of Centre for Environmental Economics and Climate Change at Jindal School of Government and Public Policy. His personal webpage is www.parkashchander.com

By Maria Gioia Zurzolo

Whoever had the chance to deal with security studies has probably heard of the ‘chicken game’. It models two drivers who are both headed for a single-lane bridge from opposite directions. The first to swerve away yields the bridge to the other. As they approach the bridge, mutual destruction becomes more and more imminent. A crash would be the worst outcome for both players, and each risks it in attempting to secure their best outcome. They have nothing to gain; only pride and credibility stops them to backing down.

Game theory contributes to a better understanding of war strategies as well the potential outcomes of a nuclear-armed conflict. The high cost of a nuclear conflict should prevent actors from deploying nuclear weapons, shifting their use toward a means of coercive diplomacy instead. As the Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling argues, nuclear power should be an efficient way to induce antagonistic states to back down because of the destructive escalation of a potential nuclear conflict.

In light of that, it would be an irrational choice to engage in a nuclear exchange. However, deterrence only works when a nuclear state presents a credible nuclear threat.

So what then is going on between Washington and Pyongyang?

For many years, North Korea has been a case study in analyzing the behavior of a state actor transitioning from non-nuclear to nuclear-armed status. Its political goals have always been state survival and protection of national sovereignty. As a matter of fact, it could be said that North Korea’s aspiration of going nuclear might be caused by the status of isolation in which the country has always been relegated. The perception of a security dilemma drove North Korea to undertake the path to get nuclear power in order to balance the threat posed by the United States as well as the entire international community.

North Korea’s threat perception increased after the Iraq war, when the U.S. intervened under the pretense that Iraq possessed nuclear weapons. A functional nuclear program would have deterred a hostile policy from the U.S. as well as any attempt at regime change in the country. Therefore, the current situation is a consequence of years of tensions. In light of North Korean missiles launches, President Donald Trump affirmed that military solutions are fully in place to counter any threat from Pyongyang, but it seems that US declarations are not acting as a deterrent to push North Korea to step down. On the contrary, the North Korean government has accused the White House of aiming for war and reaffirmed that it is ready to respond with any powerful measure necessary.

Considering Kim Jong-un to be a crazy and irrational statesman, referring to him as a ‘Rocket man’ without taking his goals seriously – this is just damaging. There are different things at stake here, not only the credibility of Washington as a leading power, but the threat to its allies in the area, namely South Korea and Japan.

The North Korea crisis is the United States’ own game of chicken. On one hand, there is credibility at stake, but on the other one there is the potential for a terrible escalation of the conflict. We could assume that there is no reason why North Korea would order a first strike, thus bringing about its own complete destruction. In that case, Kim will maintain his nuclear program to counter any provocation by the U.S. and South Korea. It is ambitious to come to the conclusion that Kim will not order any first strike. As the North Korean leader said, they have the military tools to reach the Island of Guam, but if that happens, the U.S. would probably respond with a conventional military attack that may be terrible not only for North Korea but for the South as well.

As Russian President Putin pointed out, tensions and threats are just building a sort of ‘military hysteria.’ Putin has stressed that the situation should be solved using diplomacy instead. Reacting aggressively to intimidate Kim seems to be counterproductive. The nature of North Korean provocations stems from its long-term goals: the protection of national sovereignty and international recognition of its own security needs.

Overall, if Kim places regime survival above all, it seems unlikely that he will order a first nuclear strike. He is using his nuclear power in a defensive way, and only time will tell who is going to be the ‘chicken’ in this nuclear game – a game that is better not to played for too long.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect any official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com, where this article was published.

By Tuz Khurmatu*

As residents on the Sunni Muslim side of Tuz Khurmatu cast their ballots on the question of independence for Iraqi Kurdistan on Monday, dozens of locals gathered opposite, armed with machine guns, RPG launchers, and pistols, preparing to fight against the city’s Shia population.

Half an hour earlier, a minibus carrying Kurdish peshmerga soldiers came under fire from the other side of the small city, almost exclusively populated by Shia Turkmen. The driver – a civilian and ironically a Shia himself – was killed instantly and one of his peshmerga passengers shot in the leg.

Referendum day here was drastically different than in some parts of northern Iraq, where Kurdish nationalism ran high and voting was marked by cheerful optimism and flag-waving.

This troubled city, where a wall divides residents by their adherence to Sunni or Shia Islam, may be the exception rather than the rule on this historic day for Iraqi Kurds, but it hints at the challenges that lie ahead, particularly in border areas claimed by both Kurdistan and Iraq.

It also remains to be seen how Monday’s referendum will impact growing regional and international tensions. The vote was opposed by Iraq’s central government, neighbours of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), including Turkey and Iran, as well as by the United Nations, the United States and Britain. Voting had barely ended before the federal government in Baghdad had urged the international community to boycott crude oil exports from the KRG, and Turkey had declared the vote “null and void”.

Violence had been expected in Tuz Khurmatu in Salah al-Din province, one of the most volatile areas in a fault line of disputed territories.

Frequent clashes between opposing sides have become so dangerous that, for over a year, a wall has separated the two. Residents told IRIN that many locals from both sides fled ahead of Monday’s vote, fearing the bloodshed that inevitably came.

A city divided

Tuz Khurmatu’s residents – a mixture of Sunni Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and Shia Turkmen – lived in relative harmony for decades. But the emergence of the so-called Islamic State, which at one point held territory just two kilometres from Tuz Khurmatu, enhanced religious divisions.

Fearing the threat of IS, the city’s Shia Turkmen affiliated with Iraq’s predominantly Shia Hashd al-Shaabi forces. Known in English as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), these groups welcomed Iraqi volunteers of any faith or ethnicity willing to take on IS. The Kurdish and Arab Sunnis of Tuz Khurmatu, meanwhile, looked to the KRG’s peshmerga fighters for support.

Iraq’s battle against IS enabled the KRG to considerably expand its reach into disputed areas but local journalist Hunar Ahmed told IRIN that when PMU forces arrived in the area to fight IS, they also took control of territory nearby, adding: “Then they never left.”

“There were no such problems here before but, after they destroyed Daesh (IS), the Hashd and the peshmerga started fighting each other,” he said.

Growing violence led the local branch of Jalal Talibani’s Kurdish PUK party, which holds sway here, to authorise the construction of the wall a year ago, separating the town’s Shia Turkmen, who account for around 60 percent of the city’s population, from local Sunni Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen.

Parts of the city had already been divided since 2010 by barriers erected to reduce attacks by al-Qaeda and other extremist groups, according to Tuz Khurmatu Governor Shalal Abdul, himself a Kurd.

The governor told IRIN that the wall was extended last year as the city became fully segregated – even though elsewhere in Iraq, including just 30 kilometres outside Tuz Khurmatu, the PMU and the peshmerga share front lines and fight IS together.

Abdul attributed the recent escalation in tensions to the referendum but said a change in local PMU leadership had also compromised a long-standing agreement between the two sides. “There is no trust but, despite this, we are working hard to calm things down now,” he said.

“Tell them we will arrest any civilian carrying weapons,” he barked down the phone late Monday afternoon, issuing orders for the armed Kurdish civilians to stand down to prevent the day ending in a major gunfight.

A bloody referendum day

His clothes and hands smeared with blood, passenger Rami Abass told IRIN how the driver of the ill-fated minibus had stopped for tea from a temporary refreshment stall, erected as part Shia observances of the holy month of Muharram and in preparation for the religious pilgrimage of Arbaeen.

“Our military bags were piled on top of the bus, and when the Hashd saw those they knew we were peshmerga and opened fire with machine guns,” he explained.

The birthday of the dead man, named as Wahaj Fuad, was Tuesday. He would have been 30. The peshmerga on the bus had been heading for their hometown of Khanaqin to cast their ballots when shots rang out, Abass said.

Just an hour before the shooting, local Kurds had boasted to IRIN that a several-hundred strong force of armed Sunni locals had patrolled the sreets the night before the election. “The Shia did nothing because they are very scared of us,” one said proudly.

After the shooting, it was the city’s Kurds who were looking nervous.

“We’re making preparations because we are afraid the Iranian army will attack us,” one Kurdish civilian fighter told IRIN near a polling station, referring to the Iranian-backed PMU. He alleged that another peshmerga had been shot and critically injured by a sniper as he went to vote.

As more armed civilians arrived on motorbikes or piled into the back of battered 4x4s, and unloaded mortar rounds in the street, an explosion shook the ground.

“A mortar,” the man said quietly. “The Hashd offensive against the peshmerga has begun.”

Tense build-up

Trouble had been brewing in Tuz Kharmatu long before referendum day.

A week before the vote, as Kurdish anthems, songs, and speeches from a rally in support of the referendum echoed out across the city, IRIN crossed one of the walls and found local Turkmen fighters and peshmerga units in a tense and silent stand-off, holding rival positions just 200 metres from one another.

“Our orders are to be ready at all times to fight,” said peshmerga soldier Dolan. There hasn’t been a serious battle for half a year, “but we are always ready. As soon as we hear an explosion or a gunshot, we will start fighting.”

Less than 200 metres away, a large Shia flag was pinned to a wall, with another flying on top of a makeshift tower beneath which three young men kept a constant watch over the streets. Within one minute, armed Turkmen appeared on street corners, some wearing balaclavas.

While the conflict here predates the independence referendum, Turkmen living in Kurdistan were the largest ethnic minority demographic to take a public stance against the vote. Eight Turkmen political parties made a joint announcement pledging allegiance to Baghdad and calling on all Turkmen in the region to boycott the ballot.

Iran and leaders of the PMU also came out against the vote.

Determined voters

Voters, unperturbed by the fighting, still dribbled into the polling station in the city centre, past the growing group of men and guns, amongst whom a little girl wearing a dress made from Kurdish flags cycled cheerfully.

Volunteer Kharwan Khabat, responsible for welcoming voters and explaining procedure, told IRIN that more than half of the 4,000 registered at that spot had cast their ballots: “People haven’t been too afraid of violence to vote and, so far, things have been very good here.”

While the armed men dispersed after receiving orders from the governor – who was frantically negotiating a temporary peace settlement — voting stations closed their doors and started emptying the ballot boxes.

“There are two ‘no’ votes here. Look!” said one of the election volunteers, holding up the two papers. “And I know exactly who cast those two votes.” Another ballot paper, where the voter had crossed both the yes and no boxes, would be declared void, she explained.

At a voting centre in the city’s predominantly Arab and Turkmen Sunni district where votes were being counted, lawyer and election observer Juma Hussein said 5,000 of the 6,500 people registered had voted. All those registered at that polling station, he said, were displaced from their villages by IS and have still been unable to return to their destroyed villages, which are now in PMU-controlled territory. Of those, 3,000 were Sunni Arabs and Turkmen, and 2,000 were Kurds.

Across the KRG and other disputed territories, turnout was said to be as high as 72 percent.

Some of these displaced Arabs live unhappily sandwiched between the city’s indigenous (and occasionally warring) Sunni and Shia residents.

“We have no problem with Kurdish people or Turkmen,” said 45 year-old Mariam desperately, gesturing towards the wall, under the shadow of which she has lived with her six children for three years. “We just don’t want any more bloodletting or war. We have had too much fighting and we hate war. We just want a balanced and peaceful life.”

If an independent Kurdish state is to emerge after the referendum, it is in ethnically mixed and politically divided areas like Tuz Khurmatu, with a history of sectarian conflict, where the future looks most uncertain.

About the author:
Tom Westcott, Freelance journalist and regular IRIN contributor

Source:
This article was published by IRIN.

Ten years on from the global financial crisis, the prospects for a sustained economic recovery remain at risk due to a widespread failure on the part of leaders and policy-makers to put in place reforms necessary to underpin competitiveness and bring about much-needed increases in productivity, according to data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018.

The report is an annual assessment of the factors driving countries’ productivity and prosperity.
For the ninth consecutive year, the report’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) finds Switzerland to be the world’s most competitive economy, narrowly ahead of the United States and Singapore. Other G20 economies in the top 10 are Germany (5), the United Kingdom (8) and Japan (9). China is the highest ranking among the BRICS group of large emerging markets, moving up one rank to 27.

Drawing on data going back 10 years, the report highlights in particular three areas of greatest concern. These include the financial system, where levels of “soundness” have yet to recover from the shock of 2007 and in some parts of the world are declining further. This is especially of concern given the important role the financial system will need to play in facilitating investment in innovation related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Another key finding is that competitiveness is enhanced, not weakened, by combining degrees of flexibility within the labour force with adequate protection of workers’ rights. With vast numbers of jobs set to be disrupted as a result of automation and robotization, creating conditions that can withstand economic shock and support workers through transition periods will be vital.

GCI data also suggests that the reason innovation often fails to ignite productivity is due to an imbalance between investments in technology and efforts to promote its adoption throughout the wider economy.

“Global competitiveness will be more and more defined by the innovative capacity of a country. Talents will become increasingly more important than capital and therefore the world is moving from the age of capitalism into the age of talentism. Countries preparing for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and simultaneously strengthening their political, economic and social systems will be the winners in the competitive race of the future,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.

The Global Competitiveness Index in 2017

With Switzerland, Netherlands and Germany remaining stable on first, fourth and fifth spots respectively, the only changes in the top five apply to the United States and Singapore, which swap second and third positions. Elsewhere in the top 10 the big winner is Hong Kong SAR, which jumps three places to sixth, edging out Sweden (7), UK (8) and Japan (9), all of which decline one place. With Finland holding stable in 10th position, the other big winner in the top 20 is Israel, which climbs eight places to 16.

In Europe, the region’s third-largest economy, France, is edged out one position to 22. Elsewhere, there seems little sign of improvement in addressing the region’s north-south divide with little change in the rankings of Spain (34), Italy (43), or Greece (87). Portugal does excel though, climbing four places ahead of Italy to 42. General trends over the past decade have seen an improvement in aspects of Europe’s innovation ecosystems but a worrying deterioration in some important education indicators. Russia improves five positions, moving to 38. Improvements in basic requirements and innovation drive the increase.

North America remains one of the most competitive regions in the world. Leading in innovation, business sophistication and technological readiness, and ranking close to the top in the other pillars of competitiveness. The United States rises to number 2 and Canada also improves one position to 14.
Among the 17 East Asia and Pacific economies covered, 13 have increased their overall score – albeit marginally – with Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam making the largest strides since last year. Singapore, the most competitive economy in the region, slipped from second to third place, while Hong Kong advanced from ninth to sixth place – passing Japan, now ranked ninth. There have been signs of a productivity slowdown among the region’s advanced economies and in China, suggesting the need to pursue efforts to further increase technological readiness and promote innovation.

India (40th) remains the most competitive country in South Asia, as most countries in the region improve their performance. The two Himalayan countries of Bhutan (82nd, up 15) and Nepal (88th, up ten) are among the most improved countries globally while Pakistan (115th, up seven) and Bangladesh (99th, up seven) have both improved their scores across all pillars of competitiveness. Improving ICT infrastructure and use remain among the biggest challenges for the region: in the past decade, technological readiness stagnated the most in South Asia.

Latin America and the Caribbean have seen 10 years of continued improvement in competitiveness. Chile continues to lead the region at placing 33, followed by Costa Rica ranked 47 and improving seven positions. Panama comes next, ranking 50 and falling eight positions. Argentina showed most improvement, placing 92 and going up 12 positions. Brazil stabilizes at 80, improving one position, as well as Mexico ranked 51st. Colombia and Peru each fall five positions, ranking 66 and 72 respectively. Last in the region comes Haiti and Venezuela.

The Middle East and North Africa improves its average performance this year, despite further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment in some countries. Low oil and gas prices are forcing the region to implement reforms to boost diversification, and heavy investments in digital and technological infrastructure have allowed major improvements in technological readiness. However, these have not yet led to an equally large turnaround in the region’s level of innovation. The United Arab Emirates (17th) leads the way among the Arab countries followed by Qatar (25th), while the most-improved country is Egypt (101st, up 14)

On average, sub-Saharan Africa’s competitiveness has not changed significantly over the past decade and only a handful of countries (Ethiopia 108, Senegal 106, Tanzania 113, Uganda 114) are continuing to improve this year. Leading the ranking in the region come Mauritius (45), Rwanda (58), South Africa (61) and Botswana (63). In general, Africa is still being penalized by its macroeconomic environment. Average inflation grew to double digits last year while public finances are still being affected by relatively low commodity prices, which curbed public revenues and hence government investments. At the same time, Africa’s financial markets and infrastructures remain underdeveloped, and institutions’ improvement process hit a setback this year as political uncertainty is growing in key countries.

“Countries must establish an environment that enables citizens and businesses to create, develop and implement new ideas that will allow them to progress and grow. The Global Competitiveness Report helps us understand the drivers of innovation and growth and this edition comes at a time when increasing the ability of countries to adopt innovations is critical to achieving broad-based growth and economic progress,” said Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Professor of Economics at Columbia University.

In the first evaluation of evaporation as a renewable energy source, researchers at Columbia University find that U.S. lakes and reservoirs could generate 325 gigawatts of power, nearly 70 percent of what the United States currently produces.

Though still limited to experiments in the lab, evaporation-harvested power could in principle be made on demand, day or night, overcoming the intermittency problems plaguing solar and wind energy. The researchers’ calculations are outlined in the Sept. issue of Nature Communications.

“We have the technology to harness energy from wind, water and the sun, but evaporation is just as powerful,” said the study’s senior author Ozgur Sahin, a biophysicist at Columbia. “We can now put a number on its potential.”

Evaporation is nature’s way of cycling water between land and air. Sahin has previously shown how this basic process can be exploited to do work. One machine developed in his lab, the so-called Evaporation Engine, controls humidity with a shutter that opens and closes, prompting bacterial spores to expand and contract. The spores’ contractions are transferred to a generator that makes electricity. The current study was designed to test how much power this process could theoretically produce.

One benefit of evaporation is that it can be generated only when needed. Solar and wind power, by contrast, require batteries to supply power when the sun isn’t shining and wind isn’t blowing. Batteries are also expensive and require toxic materials to manufacture.

“Evaporation comes with a natural battery,” said study lead author, Ahmet-Hamdi Cavusoglu, a graduate student at Columbia. “You can make it your main source of power and draw on solar and wind when they’re available.” Evaporation technology can also save water. In the study, researchers estimate that half of the water that evaporates naturally from lakes and reservoirs into the atmosphere could be saved during the energy-harvesting process. In their model, that came to 25 trillion gallons a year, or about a fifth of the water Americans consume.

States with growing populations and sunnier weather can best capitalize on evaporation’s capacity to generate power and reduce water waste, in part because evaporation packs more energy in warm and dry conditions, the researchers say. Drought-prone California, Nevada and Arizona could benefit most.

The researchers simplified their model in several ways to test evaporation’s potential. They limited their calculations to the United States, where weather station data are readily accessible, and excluded prime locations such as farmland, rivers, the Great Lakes, and coastlines, to limit errors associated with modeling more complex interactions. They also made the assumption that technology to harvest energy from evaporation efficiently is fully developed.

Klaus Lackner, a physicist at Arizona State University who was not involved in the study, expressed support for the team’s findings. Lackner is developing artificial trees that draw carbon dioxide from the air, in part, by harnessing the power of evaporation.

“Evaporation has the potential to do a lot of work,” he said. “It’s nice to see that drying and wetting cycles can also be used to collect mechanical energy.”

The researchers are working to improve the energy efficiency of their spore-studded materials and hope to eventually test their concept on a lake, reservoir, or even a greenhouse, where the technology could be used to simultaneously make power and limit water loss.

Computer scientists at the University of Nottingham and Kingston University have solved a complex problem that has, until now, defeated experts in vision and graphics research. They have developed technology capable of producing 3D facial reconstruction from a single 2D image – the 3D selfie.

Their new web app allows people to upload a single colour image and receive, in a few seconds, a 3D model showing the shape of their face. People are queuing up to try it and so far, more than 400,000 users have had a go. You can do it yourself by taking a selfie and uploading it to their website.

The research – ‘Large Pose 3D Face Reconstruction from a Single Image via Direct Volumetric CNN Regression’ – was led by PhD student Aaron Jackson and carried out with fellow PhD student Adrian Bulat both based in the Computer Vision Laboratory in the School of Computer Science. Both students are supervised by Georgios (Yorgos) Tzimiropoulos, Assistant Professor in the School of Computer Science. The work was done in collaboration with Dr Vasileios Argyriou from the School of Computer Science and Mathematics at Kingston University.

The results will be presented at the International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV) 2017 in Venice next month.

Technology at a very early stage

The technique is far from perfect but this is the breakthrough computer scientists have been looking for.

It has been developed using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) – an area of artificial intelligence (AI) which uses machine learning to give computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed.

The research team, supervised by Dr Yorgos Tzimiropoulos, trained a CNN on a huge dataset of 2D pictures and 3D facial models. With all this information their CNN is able to reconstruct 3D facial geometry from a single 2D image. It can also take a good guess at the non-visible parts of the face.

Simple idea complex problem

Dr Tzimiropoulos said: “The main novelty is in the simplicity of our approach which bypasses the complex pipelines typically used by other techniques. We instead came up with the idea of training a big neural network on 80,000 faces to directly learn to output the 3D facial geometry from a single 2D image.”

This is a problem of extraordinary difficulty. Current systems require multiple facial images and face several challenges, such as dense correspondences across large facial poses, expressions and non-uniform illumination.

Aaron Jackson said: “Our CNN uses just a single 2D facial image, and works for arbitrary facial poses (e.g. front or profile images) and facial expressions (e.g. smiling).”

Adrian Bulat said “The method can be used to reconstruct the whole 3D facial geometry including the non-visible parts of the face.”

Their technique demonstrates some of the advances possible through deep learning – a form of machine learning that uses artificial neural networks to mimic the way the brain makes connections between pieces of information.

Dr Vasileios Argyriou, from Kingston University’s Faculty of Science, Engineering and Computing, said: “What’s really impressive about this technique is how it has made the process of creating a 3D facial model so simple.”

What could the applications be?

Aside from the more standard applications, such as face and emotion recognition, this technology could be used to personalise computer games, improve augmented reality, and let people try on online accessories such as glasses.

It could also have medical applications – such as simulating the results of plastic surgery or helping to understand medical conditions such as autism and depression.

Aaron’s PhD is funded by the University of Nottingham. His research is focused on deep learning applied to the human face. This includes 3D reconstruction and segmentation applied to the human face and body.

Adrian Bulat is a PhD student in the Computer Vision Lab. His main research interests are in the area of face analysis, human pose estimation and neural network quantization/binarization.

In anticipation of their return to their home countries and regions, Islamic State fighters in Syria and Iraq are calling for global support to strengthen IS bridgeheads in their own regions. For the first time, a Singaporean features in IS propaganda.

By Rohan Gunaratna*

With shrinking space in Iraq and Syria, the self-styled Islamic State (IS) is developing a grand strategy of global expansion. IS’ al-Hayat Media Centre released on 23 September 2017 a propaganda video with the Singaporean Megat Shahdan bin Abdul Samad, urging Muslims to emigrate to East Asia for jihad. The three-minute video, the fourth episode in the “Inside the Caliphate” series, identified Shahdan as “Abu ‘Uqayl” rallying fighters in East Asia and then calling on Muslims elsewhere to join them, if not in that territory, then Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya or West Africa.

With its decline in Iraq and Syria, IS is entering a new phase where the group is focusing on building its provinces in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and the Caucasus. The East Asia Division of IS in the Philippines suffered a setback when they besieged Marawi, the Islamic city in southern Philippines. With IS creating a capability in the ASEAN member state, with a view to targeting states elsewhere in Southeast and Northeast Asia, the next phase of the IS threat can be managed by enhancing cooperation among regional governments and national security agencies.

The Southeast Asian Context

With the creation of the East Asia Division in the Philippines and its siege of Marawi, IS plans to deepen its ideological and operational influence in Southeast Asia. To destabilise the region, IS strategy is to radicalise and militarise Southeast Asians including Singaporeans.

Speaking in English with a Southeast Asian accent, Shahdan said: “O mujahidin in East Asia, you have raised the structure of the Khilafah, brought joy to the hearts of the believers, and angered the enemies of Allah. Bear in mind that right now you are grasping very hot coals and marching on the path of the prophets. Show Allah what He loves from you, for He has promised you one of the two great outcomes – victory or shahadah [martyrdom].”

The IS video in English is designed to reach out to Singaporeans and others in the region who speak or understand English.

Shahdan went on to urge “the believers in the four corners of the world, hijrah [migration] and jihad will not cease until the Hour. Join the ranks of the mujahidin in East Asia, and inflict black days upon the Crusaders. Otherwise, make your way to Sham, Khurasan, Yemen, West Africa, or Libya. By Allah, the fighting there is only beginning to intensify”.

Singapore a Target

The 39-year old Singaporean Shahdan was recruited in the Middle East by IS and serves in IS Syria today. Shahdan then challenged Britain’s Prince Harry, a former Apache pilot in Afghanistan who visited Singapore in June 2017, to come and fight IS. Shahdan directed a message to Prince Harry, stating: “To Harry, you come to Singapore and tell such stories to gain sympathy for the London terror attacks? Why don’t you come here and fight us if you’re man enough, so that we can send you and your Apaches to Hellfire.”

This is the first time a Singaporean has been featured in IS propaganda. The Ministry of Home Affairs has confirmed in a statement on 24 September that security agencies have been monitoring his activities and had briefed community leaders about him. He left Singapore in 2014 to work in the Middle East, where he is believed to have been radicalised. “He subsequently made his way to Syria to join ISIS’ ranks. He is believed to still be with ISIS in Syria,” said the ministry.

The news should be a warning to the region of the future intentions of IS, also known as ISIS. The IS propaganda video will not alarm Southeast Asians but make them vigilant of the threat to their home countries and regions. It will strengthen the resolve of regional governments to work together to secure the region. Unlike some leaders in the Middle East, Southeast Asian leaders have taken a firm stand against IS. In addition, the home affairs and defence ministries are preparing the intelligence and direct action capabilities to counter and eliminate the IS threat.

Growing Shift from Core to Periphery

There is a shift in threat from the core to the periphery. The IS is suffering in its heartland, but it is expanding in the regions especially those with significant Muslim populations. IS strategy has always been to use locals to recruit locals and entice them into joining IS. The nationals who have travelled to theatre are persuaded to reach out to their own nationals with the intention of either facilitating their travel to conflict zones to fight or precipitate attacks at home.

Singapore is a prized target of both IS and Al Qaeda-centric terrorists. Nonetheless Singaporeans, who are raised to treasure harmony, are resilient to IS propaganda. IS message has no wide appeal among Singaporeans who value moderation, toleration and coexistence. Having understood the harm IS has caused elsewhere, the Singapore government and community leaders, especially Muslim leaders, have responded decisively to the threat.

* Rohan Gunaratna is Professor of Security Studies and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Researchers have found that disconnections of brain areas involved in attention and visual processing may contribute to visual hallucinations in individuals with Parkinson’s disease, according to a new study published online in the journal Radiology. The disconnected brain areas seen on functional MRI (fMRI) may be valuable in predicting the development of visual hallucinations in patients with Parkinson’s disease.

Hallucinations are sensations that seem real but are created in a person’s mind. A person having a hallucination may see, hear or feel something that is not actually there. According to the National Parkinson Foundation, visual hallucinations can be a complication of Parkinson’s disease.

“Visual hallucinations in Parkinson’s disease are frequent and debilitating,” said study author Dagmar H. Hepp, M.D., from the Department of Neurology and the Department of Anatomy and Neurosciences at VU University Medical Center (VUMC) in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. “Our aim was to study the mechanism underlying visual hallucinations in Parkinson’s disease, as these symptoms are currently poorly understood.”

Studies using fMRI to investigate visual hallucinations in patients with Parkinson’s disease are rare and have been mainly limited to task-based methods using activities that involve visual stimulation or cognitive tasks. However, the authors note that the presence of visual hallucinations is strongly linked to the development of cognitive decline in patients with Parkinson’s disease. Cognitive deficits may influence a patient’s ability to perform specific tasks during an fMRI exam.

For this study, researchers used resting-state fMRI to examine the connectivity, or communication, between brain areas. Resting-state fMRI is a method of brain imaging that can be used to evaluate patients not performing an explicit task. The connectivity was measured in 15 patients with visual hallucinations, 40 patients without visual hallucinations, and 15 healthy controls by calculating the level of synchronization between activation patterns of different brain areas.

The results showed that in all the patients with Parkinson’s disease, multiple brain areas communicated less with the rest of the brain as compared to the control group. However, in patients suffering from visual hallucinations, several additional brain areas showed this decreased connectivity with the rest of the brain, especially those important in maintaining attention and processing of visual information.

“We found that the areas in the brain involved in attention and visual processing were less connected to the rest of the brain,” said study author Menno M. Schoonheim, Ph.D., from the Department of Anatomy and Neurosciences at VUMC. “This suggests that disconnection of these brain areas may contribute to the generation of visual hallucinations in patients with Parkinson’s disease.”

While there are no direct therapeutic implications for patient care based on the research, the authors note that future studies could indicate whether techniques that could stimulate the areas with decreased connectivity could be helpful to treat visual hallucinations in people with Parkinson’s disease.

Researchers at Portland State University found benzene and other potentially cancer-causing chemicals in the vapor produced by butane hash oil, a cannabis extract.

Their study raises health concerns about dabbing, or vaporizing hash oil – a practice that is growing in popularity, especially in states that have legalized medical or recreational marijuana.

Dabbing is already controversial. The practice consists of placing a small amount of cannabis extract — a dab — on a heated surface and inhaling the resulting vapor. The practice has raised concerns because it produces extremely high levels of cannabinoids — the active ingredients in marijuana.

The process of making hash oil also is dangerous because it uses highly flammable and potentially explosive butane as a solvent to extract active ingredients from marijuana leaves and flowers. In July, two people in Portland, OR, died in an explosion and fire at a home where butane hash oil was being manufactured.

“Given the widespread legalization of marijuana in the USA, it is imperative to study the full toxicology of its consumption to guide future policy,” said Rob Strongin, a Portland State professor who led the study. “The results of these studies clearly indicate that dabbing, while considered a form of vaporization, may in fact deliver significant amounts of toxins.”

Strongin and his team analyzed the chemical profile of terpenes – the fragrant oils in marijuana and other plants – by vaporizing them in much the same way as a user would vaporize hash oil.

Terpenes are also used in e-cigarette liquids. Previous experiments by Strongin and his colleagues at Portland State found toxic chemicals in e-cigarette vapor when the devices were used at high temperature settings.

The dabbing experiments produced benzene – a known carcinogen — at levels many times higher than the ambient air, Strongin said. It also produced high levels of methacrolein, a chemical similar to acrolein, another carcinogen.

Their findings were published in the Sept. 22 issue of “ACS Omega,” a journal of the American Chemical Society.

Myanmar’s brutal crackdown on marginalized Rohingya people may spur new extremism; condemnation alone won’t end the refugee crisis.

By Bertil Lintner*

Brutal treatment of Muslim Rohingya minority in Myanmar is creating severe rifts with the country’s newly won friends in Washington and London. China, for geopolitical reasons, quickly stepped in to support the Myanmar government’s position while India worries about the spread of Islamic militancy. Bangladesh as the reluctant host of hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas also worries about internal security.

A series of coordinated attacks by an obscure insurgent group on more than 20 police stations in Myanmar’s western Rakhine State on August 25 resulted in a massive backlash from the Myanmar military as an estimated 420,000 Rohingyas cross the border into Bangladesh. The obscure group Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, or ARSA, also managed to rattle Myanmar’s delicate foreign relations just as the country was emerging from decades of isolation. Because of reports of carnage and widespread human-rights abuses, Great Britain suspended a fledgling training program for army officers from Myanmar, aimed at “engaging” the military.

A US plan to restart its International Military Education and Training program for Myanmar officers, suspended after the country’s military crushed a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 may now be halted by the Congress. The reputation of Myanmar’s pro-democracy icon and, until recent events a darling of the West, Aung San Suu Kyi, is in tatters for her failure to condemn the army’s so-called “clearing operations” in Rakhine State. Some commentators even suggest that she should be held responsible for what the UN has termed ethnic cleansing and stripped of her 1992 Nobel Peace Prize.

Such criticism from the West must be music to the ears of Chinese security planners, who are rattled by Myanmar’s recent drift from a close relationship with China toward improved ties with the West. Following the massacre of pro-democracy demonstrators in 1988, the United States, the European Union and even Japan imposed sanctions on Myanmar. China then stepped in with trade agreements, bilateral aid and military sales. Such heavy dependence on China prompted Myanmar’s change in course from heavy-handed military rule to the introduction of a more pluralistic political system.

Elections were held in 2010, paving the way for a quasi-civilian government, and relations with the West were normalized. Then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar in 2011, followed by former President Barack Obama in November 2012. China, to its dismay, was no longer Myanmar’s closest ally, and Myanmar is of utmost strategic importance to China, providing access to the Indian Ocean. Oil and gas pipelines, from the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar to Yunnan province, shorten supply routes from the Middle East, allowing China to avoid the potentially vulnerable chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca.

Predictably, The Global Times, an official Chinese newspaper, was quick to exploit the West’s reproachful attitude towards Myanmar and Suu Kyi, on September 18 noting that “despite being heavily criticized by the Western media over the Rohingya issue, Myanmar State Counselor and former Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has gained popularity with Chinese netizens, who praised her defiance against ‘outside pressure while safe-guarding the people’s interest.’” The paper, quoting Chinese social media posts, went on to say that Suu Kyi, who “had long been seen as a proxy of the West…has won cheers…from Chinese online communities who are routinely indignant over Western pressure on developing countries over issues concerning national security.”

Despite Western criticism, Suu Kyi has no power over the army which, according to the country’s military-drafted 2008 constitution, stipulates that it takes orders only from its commander-in-chief. Criticized for not opposing the army’s abysmal behavior in Rakhine State, she broke that silence in a September 19 televised speech, which her Western critics dismissed as too bland. Her next appearance came four days later when she gave an exclusive interview to Chinese media in the capital of Naypyitaw. China’s official news agency Xinhua quoted her as saying she “appreciated China’s recognition that the problems facing Myanmar are extremely complex and cannot be solved overnight.” When asked about China’s ambitious Belt and Road development initiative, she stressed that “it has great potential to create better economic and social environment for all the countries and regions concerned.”

India, another friend in need, was also not slow to use the crisis to improve relations with Myanmar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during a highly publicized visit to Myanmar in early September, expressed concern over “extremist violence” in Rakhine State. Suu Kyi thanked India for its stand on terror threats confronting Myanmar, adding that “both countries should cooperate to tackle terrorism.” India and Myanmar also signed several agreements on maritime security cooperation and sharing shipping information — which could be seen as an attempt by India to keep an eye on what its regional rival China is up to in the Indian Ocean.

Thailand also refrained from criticizing Myanmar, pledging to work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Asean, to promote peace and provide humanitarian assistance to the conflict’s victims.

Bangladesh, closest to the conflict zone, was less restrained. Four days after the August 25 attacks, the secular Awami League government in Dhaka proposed joint military operations with Myanmar against ARSA and declared that refugees would be turned back. The Awami League perceives the political organizations among the Rohingyas as a security risk because of their leaders’ longstanding relationship with the fundamentalist Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, BJI, strong in the Chittagong area adjacent to Rakhine and an ally of main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Bangladesh reversed that policy after a trickle of refugees became a flood and the country’s security forces could not possibly stop the tens of thousands of people streaming across the border on a daily basis. Massive demonstrations in support of the Rohingyas were held in several cities in Bangladesh. On September 12, the country’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed visited a camp along the border and said that Bangladesh would offer temporary shelter and aid, but that Myanmar should soon “take their nationals back.”

Bangladesh will hold elections no later than January 28, 2019. A return to power of BNP, which formed coalition governments with BJI from 1991 to 1996 and from 2001 to 2006, could allow for a more Rohingya-friendly policy, including turning a blind eye to the establishment of sanctuaries for the militants in the border areas. That was the case in the early 1990s, when the resistance was dominated by the Rohingya Solidarity Organization and maintained a huge camp near the town of Ukhia in southeastern Bangladesh. Following a 2013 court order, BJI is barred from participating in the next election because its party constitution is at variance with electoral law.

But if the Awami League fails to win the next election, BJI and likeminded radical groups could still wield considerable influence over the new government.

The region will not be the same after the August 25 attacks. ARSA may be a ragtag band of a few hundred poorly armed fighters. But, in a single stroke, they have brought a profound impact on the region’s geopolitical balance, perhaps a goal in launching those August attacks. The West is losing ground, with the refugees and Bangladesh as victims, while China and India scramble to take advantage of the crisis to advance their respective security and business interests.  Unless the West’s rightful condemnation is accompanied by a nuanced practical approach to the Rohingya issue, terrorism may have found a new frontier in Asia while reinforcing Beijing’s position in the region.

*Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and author of several books on Burma/Myanmar, including Burma in Revolt: Opium and Insurgency Since 1948 (published in 1994, 1999 and 2003), Land of Jade: A Journey from India through Northern Burma to China, and The Kachin: Lords of Burma’s Northern Frontier. He is currently a writer with Asia Pacific Media Services.

After a nine-week voyage to study the lost, submerged continent of Zealandia in the South Pacific, a team of 32 scientists from 12 countries has arrived in Hobart, Tasmania, aboard the research vessel JOIDES Resolution.

Researchers affiliated with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) mounted the expedition to explore Zealandia. IODP is a collaboration of scientists from 23 countries; the organization coordinates voyages to study the history of the Earth recorded in sediments and rocks beneath the seafloor.

“Zealandia, a sunken continent long lost beneath the oceans, is giving up its 60 million-year-old secrets through scientific ocean drilling,” said Jamie Allan, program director in the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Division of Ocean Sciences, which supports IODP.

“This expedition offered insights into Earth’s history, ranging from mountain-building in New Zealand to the shifting movements of Earth’s tectonic plates to changes in ocean circulation and global climate,” Allan said.

Earlier this year, Zealandia was confirmed as Earth’s seventh continent, but little is known about it because it’s submerged more than a kilometer (two-thirds of a mile) under the sea. Until now, the region has been sparsely surveyed and sampled.

Expedition scientists drilled deep into the seabed at six sites in water depths of more than 1,250 meters (4,101 feet). They collected 2,500 meters (8,202 feet) of sediment cores from layers that record how the geography, volcanism and climate of Zealandia have changed over the last 70 million years.

According to expedition co-chief scientist Gerald Dickens of Rice University in the U.S., significant new fossil discoveries were made. They prove that Zealandia was not always as deep beneath the waves as it is today.

“More than 8,000 specimens were studied, and several hundred fossil species were identified,” said Dickens.

“The discovery of microscopic shells of organisms that lived in warm shallow seas, and of spores and pollen from land plants, reveal that the geography and climate of Zealandia were dramatically different in the past.”

The new discoveries show that the formation 40 to 50 million years ago of the “Pacific Ring of Fire,” an active seafloor zone along the perimeter of the Pacific Ocean, caused dramatic changes in ocean depth and volcanic activity and buckled the seabed of Zealandia, according to Dickens.

Expedition co-chief scientist Rupert Sutherland of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand said researchers had believed that Zealandia was submerged when it separated from Australia and Antarctica about 80 million years ago.

“That is still probably accurate, but it is now clear that dramatic later events shaped the continent we explored on this voyage,” Sutherland said.

“Big geographic changes across northern Zealandia, which is about the same size as India, have implications for understanding questions such as how plants and animals dispersed and evolved in the South Pacific.

“The discovery of past land and shallow seas now provides an explanation. There were pathways for animals and plants to move along.”

Studies of the sediment cores obtained during the expedition will focus on understanding how Earth’s tectonic plates move and how the global climate system works. Records of Zealandia’s history, expedition scientists said, will provide a sensitive test for computer models used to predict future changes in climate.