September marked a decade since the bursting of the housing bubble, which was followed by the stock market meltdown and the government bailout of the big banks and Wall Street. Last week’s frantic stock market sell-off indicates the failure to learn the lesson of 2008 makes another meltdown inevitable.

In 2001-2002 the Federal Reserve responded to the economic downturn caused by the bursting of the technology bubble by pumping money into the economy. This new money ended up in the housing market. This was because the so-called conservative Bush administration, like the “liberal” Clinton administration before it, was using the Community Reinvestment Act and government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make mortgages available to anyone who wanted one — regardless of income or credit history.

Banks and other lenders eagerly embraced this “ownership society”’ agenda with a “lend first, ask questions when foreclosing” policy. The result was the growth of subprime mortgages, the rush to invest in housing, and millions of Americans finding themselves in homes they could not afford.

When the housing bubble burst, the government should have let the downturn run its course in order to correct the malinvestments made during the phony, Fed-created boom. This may have caused some short-term pain, but it would have ensured the recovery would be based on a solid foundation rather than a bubble of fiat currency.

Of course Congress did exactly the opposite, bailing out Wall Street and the big banks. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to historic lows and embarked on a desperate attempt to inflate the economy via QE 1, 2, and 3.

Low interest rates and quantitative easing have left the Fed with a dilemma. In order to avoid a return to 1970s-era inflation — or worse, it must raise interest rates and draw down its balance sheet. However, raising rates too much risks popping what financial writer Graham Summers calls the “everything bubble.”

Today credit card debt is over a trillion dollars, student loan debt is at 1.5 trillion dollars, there is a bubble in auto loans, and there is even a new housing bubble. But the biggest part of the everything bubble is the government bubble. Federal debt is over 21 trillion dollars and expanding by tens of thousands of dollars per second.

The Fed is unlikely to significantly raise interest rates because doing so would cause large increases in federal government debt interest payments. Instead, the Fed will continue making small Increases while moving slowly to unwind its balance sheet, hoping to gradually return to a “normal” monetary policy without bursting the “everything bubble.”

The Fed will be unsuccessful in keeping the everything bubble from exploding. When the bubble bursts, America will experience an economic crisis much greater than the 2008 meltdown or the Great Depression.

This crisis is rooted in the failure to learn the lessons of 2008 and of every other recession since the Fed’s creation: A secretive central bank should not be allowed to manipulate interest rates and distort economic signals regarding market conditions. Such action leads to malinvestment and an explosion of individual, business, and government debt. This may cause a temporary boom, but the boom soon will be followed by a bust. The only way this cycle can be broken without a major crisis is for Congress both to restore people’s right to use the currency of their choice and to audit and then end the Fed.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

By Ajit Kumar Singh*

On October 13, 2018, elections for the third of the four-phase Municipal Elections 2018, were held in 96 wards spread across the State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). The average polling percentage in this phase worked out to a sorry 16.4 per cent. Elections for the second phase on October 10, 2018, held across 263 wards, recorded an average of 31.3 per cent poling. On October 10, 2018, elections for the first phase were held across 321 wards, with 56.6 per cent of voters participating. The State average after the completion of the third phase of polls stands at 41.9 per cent.

The fourth phase of the polls are scheduled to be held on October 16, 2018. The date of counting is October 20, 2018.

Earlier, on September 15, 2018, the State Election Commission had announced the four phase Municipal Elections 2018 to be held across 1,145 wards of 79 Municipal Bodies. The last Municipal Elections in the state were held in the year 2005 through secret ballot and the term of the elected officials expired in February 2010.

In the current cycle, several Pakistan-backed terrorist formations had openly issued threats against participation in the polls. For instance, on October 1, 2018, a video of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) ‘commander’ Suhaib Akhoon aka Romee surfaced on social media in Kashmir, in which he can be seen issuing a threat to those who had filed their nominations for the municipal polls. He told candidates to withdraw their nomination forms within three days, failing which they would face dire consequences.

Significantly, however, no poll related violence has been recorded during the first three phases. Moreover, around 3,372 candidates filed their nomination for 79 municipal Bodies. A total of 1,473 candidates filed their nominations for the first phase; another 1,198 for the second phase; 441 for the third phase; and 260 for the fourth phase. The poling percentage was appreciably high in Jammu Division, at an average of 68.4 per cent after three phases.

However, no nomination was filed for 13 wards in the Frisal Municipal Committee of Kulgam District (phase 1); and for 13 wards in Khrew Municipal Committee of Pulwama District (phase 4), both falling in the Kashmir Division. Moreover, a total of 244 candidates were elected uncontested from 244 wards, 231 of which were from Kashmir Division. 78 candidates were elected uncontested in the first phase, 65 in the second phase, 49 in the third phase. 52 candidates have already been declared elected without contest for polls scheduled to be held on October 16. The polling percentage in Kashmir Division was at a low of just 6.7 per cent on the average after three phases.

Significantly, in the General elections of April-May 2014, when terrorist and separatist formations had, given a call for boycott, the voter turnout was 31.18 per cent in the Kashmir Division, and 49.52 per cent on the average for the State. In the State Assembly Elections subsequently held in November-December 2014, when terrorist and separatist formations had, again, given a call for boycott, the voter turnout was 56.50 per cent in the Kashmir Division, and 65.52 per cent on the average for the State.

While violence or the threat of violence may, on first sight, be thought to be a principal cause for the low voter turnout in the Kashmir division, such an assessment would not be consistent with the realities of the ground. Crucially, violence is not widespread across the Valley, and is now limited to few specific pockets as has been highlighted by SAIR in the past. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2018, out of 82 tehsils in the State, fatalities were reported from only 35. Moreover, the five worst affected tehsils recorded 153 of the total of 316 fatalities (i.e. 48.42 per cent). Similarly, of 82 tehsils, incidents of stone pelting were reported from 28. The five worst affected tehsils recorded 170 incidents out of total 266 (63.90 per cent). In both the categories (fatalities and stone peltings), the five worst-affected tehsils were in the Kashmir Division – Shopian, Pulwama, Srinagar South, Kupwara, and Kulgam. The Kashmir Division has a total of 38 tehsils.

The most significant reason for the low voter turnout in the current municipal elections has been the political ineptitude of the Centre in pushing the election schedule forward without attempting to carry Valley-based political parties along. The National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which dominate the Valley, had announced their decision to boycott the elections, unless the Centre and the State Government clarified their stance on Articles 370 (autonomous status of J&K) and 35A (special rights and privileges of ‘permanent residents’) of the Indian Constitution. The two articles have been a critical element in the polarizing politics of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), which holds power at the Centre. 35A is the subject of ongoing litigation in the Supreme Court, and each hearing provokes significant political tremors in the Valley. The BJP has an insignificant presence across the Kashmir Division (all but one of its 34 candidates in the Valley lost their deposits in the Assembly elections of 2014). The other national party, the Indian National Congress (INC) has never been a force to reckon with and has limited reach.

In an interview published on September 24, 2018, former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah observed,

It is the Centre that forced our hand to opt out of the elections by not making its stand clear on Article 35A… the PDP and the NC have 43 MLAs in the 87-member assembly. That means half of the State’s legislative footprint is out of the fray.

On September 29, 2018, Sheikh Mustafa Kamal, Additional General Secretary of NC, had also noted,

Major mainstream regional parties are on the same page as far as participation in the elections are concerned. The sparse participation of the candidates and the non-participation of the major regional parties would prove the whole exercise a farcical one.

Later on, October 13, 2018, Abdullah tweeted,

From the highest turnouts since 1987 in 2014 to the lowest turnouts ever recorded in 2018 why is the Modi Government able to get away with its disastrous handing of Kashmir almost unquestioned?

The BJP-led Union Government, which had decided to conduct the polls, went ahead with its decision and made no genuine effort to reach out to the major parties calling for a boycott, chosing, instead, to ignore the writing on the wall. On the other hand, it chose to launch a campaign of denigration against NC and PDP, making several irresponsible statements. Ram Madhav, National General Secretary, BJP, thus alleged,

PDP and NC workers are trying to scuttle the election process the same way the terrorists and their over-ground workers are. We have reports that in many places in the Valley where people go to file nominations as independents, they are being threatened by the workers of these parties.

While the entire process of Municipal Elections will be over by October 27, the Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) elections are slated to follow soon. On September 16, the State Election Commission had announced a nine-phase schedule for Panchayat elections, beginning November 17 and ending December 11, with the entire election process to be completed by December 17.

It is imperative for the Centre to now make honest efforts to bring NC and PDP into the electoral process, to cement democracy in the State and undercut the sway of the separatist and extremist constituencies. It is significant that the last Panchayat elections in the State, held in April-June 2011, were immensely successful, with over 79 per cent of the electorate exercising their right to vote. Though the Panchayats completed their term in July 2016, elections have not been held purportedly on the grounds that the security situation in the state remained fraught.

While there has been an escalation in violence in J&K over the 2013-2018 period, elections the Municipal bodies’ elections have been held virtually without incident and, despite the low rate of participation in the Valley, there is no reason to believe that there is no enthusiasm among the people to engage in the democratic exercise. Polarizing politics and growing mistrust of the Centre and its intentions with regard to crucial issues that agitate Valley populations have, however, pushed both the population and their representative political parties away from the electoral process. Unless this mistrust is addressed, the credibility of democratic processes in the State will come under question, creating widening grounds for further alienation and radicalization.

*Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

By S. Binodkumar Singh*

On October 7, 2018, Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli at a book launching ceremony in Kathmandu promised, “If someone had committed crime in the name of Maoist War, then they will be punished: there will be no amnesty for serious crimes. We are going to follow the international conventions we have signed.” Earlier, addressing the 73rd United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on September 27, 2018, Prime Minister Oli had observed:

Nepal’s commitment to the protection and promotion of human rights is total and unflinching. We hold that development, democracy and respect for human rights as interdependent and mutually reinforcing. As a member of the Human Rights Council, we will continue to play our constructive role to deliver on Council’s mandates. The ongoing transitional justice process in Nepal respects the comprehensive peace accord as well as the ground reality for sustaining peace and delivering justice. We will not allow impunity in serious violations of human rights and humanitarian laws.

Notably, on October 5, 2018, the Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs came up with a fresh ‘preliminary draft’ to amend the Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation Act 2014 (TRC Act) in line with international standards. Earlier, the Draft Amendment Bill on the TRC Act tabled on June 28, 2018, was rejected by the conflict victims as the draft had proposed perpetrators would not get amnesty in serious human rights violations, but could get waiver in sentences as per the prevailing laws — up to 60 per cent if they did not reveal the truth and did not assist the court, but if they assisted the court, revealed the truth, apologized to the victims and pledged not to commit such crimes again, they could get waiver of punishment up to 75 per cent.

The two transitional justice bodies – Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP), were formed on February 7, 2015, in the spirit of the Interim Constitution of 2007 and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2006, to probe instances of serious violations of human rights and determine the status of those who disappeared in the course of the armed conflict between the State and the then Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist), between February 13, 1996, and November 21, 2006. However, these bodies have less than five months to the end of their extended tenure. As a result of their failure to accomplish their assigned tasks, their terms have been extended twice, the latest one pushing the deadline to mid-February 2019. In the three-and-a-half years of its existence, TRC has completed preliminary investigation into hardly 2,800 cases among the 63,000 filed, and is yet to complete a detailed probe into a single case. The CIEDP, which received some 3,000 complaints, has completed preliminary investigation into some 500, but has failed to launch a single detailed investigation.

The fact is, the two transitional justice bodies have made little or no progress in investigating war-era cases of human rights violations, as the Government continues to delay the release of funds necessary for the process. TRC and CIEDP have received no money for investigation despite their persistent lobbying for funds since the beginning of the current fiscal year. This means that both TRC and CIEDP, with around five months to investigate 63,000 and 3,000 cases registered before them, respectively, have little or no resources to complete their mandate. Out of total NR 130 million required by CIEDP, the Government has released NR 40 million for staff salary, and NR 30 million to pay experts and contract officials. But officials say there is no money for travel, which is critical to the investigation of thousands of cases. The situation at TRC is worse. The commission needed NR 117 million for the current fiscal year, towards salary, travel costs, and a stipend for employees, as well as allowances for the victims who need to travel to TRC offices to record their statements. The Government released just NR 37.70 million from state coffers in mid-July.

Following delays by the Government and the transitional justice bodies in providing justice to conflict victims, a group of human rights activists on September 23, 2018, started consultations with political parties and conflict victims to form a common strategy for concluding investigations. The group held rounds of consultation with top leaders of major parties to find common grounds to provide justice for the victims – a crucial component of the peace process that began in 2006. They also met with representatives of conflict victims on September 24, 2018, to seek their suggestions. Members of the group said there has been a broad understanding that the TRC and the CIEDP cannot complete their tasks without the parities’ commitment.

Separately, annoyed by and impatient at the delays of the transitional justice bodies and the federal Government, Bhagiram Chaudhari, President of the Conflict Victims Common Platform (CVCP), an umbrella body of 13 organizations advocating justice of war-era victims, on September 30, 2018, stated, “We have consulted with different local governments and they have agreed to take initiatives for reparation. This would be a step forward in consoling the victims who have been completely ignored by the federal government.” Further, in a bid to pressure the authorities, a group of rights activists led by Ram Kumar Bhandari on October 4, 2018, collected items belonging to over 100 disappeared persons for exhibition titled ‘Memory, Truth and Justice’. Family members have preserved items of clothing, household implements, books, letters and other belongings of the disappeared. Meanwhile, on October 4, 2018, amid the failure of the federal Government to provide reparation to the victims of Maoist insurgency, local Governments in the Bardiya District of Province No. 5 started naming local infrastructure after the deceased and disappeared, and paying respect to the victims’ families.

On October 8, 2018, urging the Government to come up with a law criminalizing conflict-era torture and enforced disappearance, the National Network of the Families of the Disappeared and Missing (NEFAD) Chairman Ram Kumar Bhandari observed, “There were different possibilities that the government could adopt to prosecute the war crimes. The government could either make amendments to the laws of the TRC and the CIEDP and revamp the two bodes by changing the leadership, or hand over the cases to the NHRC with a high-level political mechanism.”

Expressing concern over the provision of community service for war criminals involved in serious human rights violations, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) on August 8, 2018, suggested dropping the community service provision in the Transitional Justice Related Bill-2018. NHRC Secretary Bed Prasad Bhattarai stated, “Granting amnesty to rights abusers under the pretext of community service is not in line with the norms of transitional justice. The international community will not accept such provision nor is the provision in accordance with the past Supreme Court verdicts.” Similarly, NHRC member Sudip Pathak noted, “One found guilty in severe cases of human rights violations must be jailed. Only community service is not going to work. It will be injustice to the victims if the perpetrators don’t even get jail sentence.”

International human rights bodies also reiterated the concerns of the conflict victims in Nepal. Calling on authorities to take into account concerns of all stakeholders and to ensure that the amendments comply with international human rights and international crime standards, Amnesty International (AI), the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) and TRIAL International on July 20, 2018, observed, “The legitimacy and viability of the Government of Nepal’s draft ‘Bill to Amend the Act on Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation, 2014’ must be questioned due to the lack of a meaningful consultation process, and serious shortcomings when evaluated against international law and standards.” Meanwhile, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in a statement released on July 25, 2018, noted that the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons and Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act Amendment Bill fails to fully adhere to global practices. Urging the Nepal Government to provide information about missing persons, André Paquet, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) mission in Nepal, stated, on August 28, 2018,

We strongly hope that the Commission on Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission will make every effort to give the victims and the families some long-awaited answers. People have the right to know what has happened to their missing relatives. The ICRC reminds all the stakeholders, including the Government of Nepal, of their obligation to provide information to the families.

Twelve years after the conflict ended, the victims of Nepal’s decade-long civil war are still waiting for justice, answers, and meaningful reparations. Even though the two transitional justice mechanisms have begun documenting cases and complaints, they have been hampered by an inadequate law that does not meet international standards, as well as by a severe lack of capacity and proper support from the Government. For justice, there needs to be a robust mechanism of investigation and prosecutions, capable of ensuring the full cooperation of both parties to the conflict. Such a mechanism must establish command and responsibility, and identify perpetrators of abuses that include torture, killings, disappearances, and rape. Despite its failure, the victims continue to pin their hopes on a justice process through the transitional justice mechanisms.

*S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

It is an organisation not without its problems. Conceived in the heat of idealism, and promoted as the vanguard of medical rescue and human rights advocacy, Médecins Sans Frontières has had its faults.  Its co-founder Bernard Kouchner went a bit awry when he turned such advocacy into full blown interventionism.  As Nicolas Sarkozy’s foreign minister, his conversion to politicised interventionism in places of crisis went full circle.  He notably split from MSF to create Doctors of the World, where he felt imbued by the spirit of droit d’ingerence, subsequently given the gloss of “humanitarian intervention”. With its mischief making properties, such interventions have manifested, usually in the guise of wealthy Western states, from the Balkans to Africa.

MSF, at least in its operating protocols, is meant to be solidly neutral and diligently impartial.  But neutrality tends to be compromised before the spectacle of suffering.  Bearing witness disturbs the mood and narrows objective distance.  On June 17, 2016, by way of example, the organisation stated that it could not “accept funding from the EU or the Member States while at the same time treating the victims of their policies! It’s that simple.” Central to this, as Katharine Weatherhead explained in an analysis of the organisation’s stance, is the “ethic of refusal” and témoignage, “the idea of being a witness to suffering.”

Australia’s gulag mimicry – a prison first, justice second mentality that governs boat arrivals – has done wonders to challenge any stance of distance humanitarian organisations might purport to have.  To see the suffering such policies cause is to make converts of the stony hearted.  What matters in this instance – the MSF condemnation of Australia’s innately brutal anti-refugee policy on Nauru – is its certitude.

The Australian government has taken the high, icy road and left the UN Refugee Convention in shambolic ruin; it insists, repeatedly, that refugees are to be discriminated against on the basis of how they arrive to the country; it also suggests, with a hypnotically disabling insistence that keeping people in open air prisons indefinitely is far better than letting them drown.  (We, the message goes, stopped the boats and saved lives!)

MSF, which had been working on the island since November 2017 primarily providing free psychological and psychiatric services, was given its marching orders by Nauru’s authorities last week.  Visas for the organisation’s workers were cancelled “to make it clear there was no intention of inviting us back,” explained MSF Australia director Paul McPhun.

A disagreement about what MSF was charged with doing developed.  The original memorandum of understanding with the Nauru government tends to put cold water on the suggestion by Australia’s Home Affairs Minister that MSF had not been involved in supplying medical services to the detainees on the island.  In dull wording, the agreement stated who the intended recipients of the project would be: “People suffering from various mental health issues, from moderate to severe, members of the various communities living in the Republic of Nauru, including Nauruan residents, expatriates, asylum seekers and refugees with no discrimination.”

It was obvious that the revelations would eventually become too much for either the authorities of Australia or Nauru to tolerate.  Having been entrusted with the task of healing the wounds of the mind, MSF’s brief was withdrawn after the organisation’s findings on the state of mental health of those in detention.  “Five years of indefinite limbo has led to a radical deterioration of their medical health and wellbeing,” claimed McPhun in stark fashion to reporters in Sydney on Thursday.  “Separating families, holding men, women and children on a remote island indefinitely with no hope of protection except in the case of a medical emergency, is cruel and inhumane.”

Undertaking a journey from war torn environs and famine stricken lands might well inflict its own elements of emotional distortion and disturbance, but Australia’s policy of keeping people isolated, distant and grounded took it further.  It was penal vindictiveness, a form of needless brutal application.

In McPhun’s sharp assessment, “While many asylum seekers and refugees on Nauru experienced trauma in their countries of origin or during their journey, it is the Australian government’s policy of indefinite offshore detention that has destroyed their resilience, shattered all hope, and ultimately impacted their mental health.”

The organisation has made it clear that Canberra’s insistence that “offshore detention” remains somehow humanitarian is barely credible, there being “nothing humanitarian saving people from the sea only to leave them in an open air prison on Nauru.”

Such a cruel joke has turned the members of MSF into a decidedly militant outfit.  “Over the past 11 months on Nauru,” statespsychiatrist Beth O’Connor, “I have seen an alarming number of suicide attempts and incidents of self-harm among the refugee and asylum seeker men, women and children we treat.”  Particularly shocking were the number of children enduring the effects of traumatic withdrawal syndrome “where their status deteriorated to the extent they were unable to eat, drink, or even to walk to the toilet.”

With such observations, there is little surprise that Nauru’s government, which was evidently seeking to find an ally and an alibi, felt slighted.  The doctors had to go.  “Although MSF claimed to be a partner to Nauru and the Nauruan people instead of working with us,” came the government justification, “they conspired against us.” The government was no longer inclined “to accept the concocted lies told about us purely to advance political agendas.”

What the government statement also insisted upon was the comparative advantage the hosted refugees and asylum seekers had.  They had their own tissue of mendacity to proffer. “The facilities, care, welfare and homely environment offered to refugees and asylum seekers are comparable or better than what other refugees and asylum seekers across the globe receive.” For that to make any sense, a comparative study on suicides, psychological corrosion and trauma would have to be done across the world’s refugee camps.  In those terms, Nauru’s performance, aided and abetted by their Australian sponsors, has been ghoulishly stellar.

ASEAN is planning to establish its Centre for Sustainable Development Studies and Dialogue (ACSDSD). Whether the Centre will provide ASEAN leadership in SD cooperation depends on the entity’s design. Southeast Asian policymakers should apply the lessons learned from ASEAN’s past experiences and practices to craft the Centre’s mandates and legal frameworks.

ByKaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit*

Last week, the world’s financial leaders convened the annual IMF-World Bank meeting in Bali, Indonesia on 12-14 October 2018. On the sidelines, Southeast Asian leaders held an informal gathering among themselves a day earlier, on 11 October. While these meetings involved different players, one thing in common was discussions on sustainable development (SD).

SD is defined as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. In other words, development for the current generation but not at the expense of the future generation. Such development has been the guiding principle for countries to “achieve, in a balanced manner, economic development, social development and environmental protection”.

Why is SD Crucial for ASEAN?

At the Bali IMF-World Bank gathering, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres highlighted high debt situations in some countries as a factor of concern; it could diminish governments’ ability to utilise funds to fulfil their other domestic needs and finance programmes to achieve the objectives outlined in the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Incidentally, the ASEAN Leaders’ meeting was themed “Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and Overcoming the Development Gap Through Regional and Global Collaborative Actions”. The Southeast Asian nations stressed ASEAN’s achievements in realising the Agenda 2030 and discussed the remaining challenges facing the SD.

Along with the IMF and World Bank, Southeast Asian states see SD as crucial for themselves on several accounts.

First, countries embarking on development schemes can eventually suffer a trade deficit which may require them to borrow hard currencies from the IMF to help its economy. For instance, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor required Pakistan to import machinery to build it. Within the first two years of construction, Islamabad witnessed a 50% increase in its trade deficit, pressuring its government to ask for the Fund’s bailout.

Second, development initiatives are utilised by powerful states as part of their power contestation game. In Southeast Asia, look no further than the Mekong sub-region in which China, Japan, and the US compete via their schemes – Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, Japan-Mekong Cooperation, and Lower Mekong Initiative, respectively – to gain influence in this area.

In addition, nations’ pursuit of economic development may cripple their ability to pay back their loans. Sri Lanka, Kenya, Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia, and Laos are among the examples.

This debt condition can ultimately jeopardise their sovereignty as reflected by the fact that Sri Lanka granted a 99-year lease of its Hambantota Port to China, its lender. Therefore, if ASEAN economies do not want to find themselves in the same situations, they must take SD seriously and step up their effort to take a lead in SD collaboration by being rule-makers, not rule-takers.

Enhancing ASEAN SD Leadership

There is evidence that Southeast Asian nations are pursuing such leadership. They are planning to launch the ASEAN Centre for Sustainable Development Studies and Dialogue (ACSDSD) next year.

The Centre is to serve as an institutional mechanism facilitating collaboration on SD in the region. The entity is expected to execute tasks ranging from supporting the implementation of projects and fostering dialogues between ASEAN and its development partners.

ACSDSD can enhance ASEAN leadership in SD collaboration because it can provide discussion platforms by summoning ASEAN member states and development partners to meet and exchange views regarding development.

Moreover, the Centre can enable Southeast Asian economies to have a say in project design and implementation, and align their development partners’ approaches with ASEAN’s commitments to the UN’s Agenda 2030.

The entity can also address any issue of uncoordinated support by different players rendering certain programmes to be overfunded while others are underfunded. In addition, ACSDSD can help ensure that projects are executed in ways that uphold ASEAN’s standards in terms of transparency and being environment-friendly.

Step in Right Direction, But…

While the idea to establish ACSDSD is a step in the right direction, more needs to be done. Most importantly, ASEAN leaders must devise an effective ACSDSD that is able to pool resources from different sectors and facilitate cooperation among different mechanisms. It is because SD is multi-faceted and cross-sectoral which requires the Centre to collaborate with different entities.

For example, to ensure that development programmes do not harm the environment, ACSDSD must cooperate with the ASEAN Working Group on Nature Conservation and Biodiversity. Also, to come up with a monitoring system of states’ debts stemming from their pursuit of economic development, the Centre must work with ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

How can such multi-faceted and cross-sectoral collaboration be realised? Answers can be extracted from ASEAN’s past experiences and practices.

For instance, the ASEAN Coordinating Committee on Connectivity (ACCC) has assumed a brokerage role by screening projects proffered by external actors, and moving financial and other resources from certain areas to those needing greater assistance.

Moreover, the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre) has successfully coordinated efforts of various players ranging from non-ASEAN states, international organisations, and private sector to execute disaster relief missions. Lessons learned from these cases can be applied to the design of ACSDSD’s mandates and legal frameworks which can enable this entity to effectively provide ASEAN leadership in SD cooperation.

But while ASEAN’s plans to establish ACSDSD is timely, whether the Centre will be formed in a way that helps ASEAN provide leadership in SD collaboration remains to be seen. Southeast Asian policymakers should apply the lessons learned from ASEAN’s past experiences and practices to craft the Centre’s mandates and legal frameworks. Doing so will enable this entity to effectively work with different sectors as well as facilitate collaboration among different mechanisms, hence providing ASEAN leadership in SD cooperation.

*Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit is Deputy Head & Assistant Professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside, have found the oldest clue yet of animal life, dating back at least 100 million years before the famous Cambrian explosion of animal fossils.

The study, led by Gordon Love, a professor in UCR’s Department of Earth Sciences, was published in Nature Ecology & Evolution. The first author is Alex Zumberge, a doctoral student working in Love’s research group.

Rather than searching for conventional body fossils, the researchers have been tracking molecular signs of animal life, called biomarkers, as far back as 660-635 million years ago during the Neoproterozoic Era. In ancient rocks and oils from Oman, Siberia, and India, they found a steroid compound produced only by sponges, which are among the earliest forms of animal life.

“Molecular fossils are important for tracking early animals since the first sponges were probably very small, did not contain a skeleton, and did not leave a well-preserved or easily recognizable body fossil record,” Zumberge said. “We have been looking for distinctive and stable biomarkers that indicate the existence of sponges and other early animals, rather than single-celled organisms that dominated the earth for billions of years before the dawn of complex, multicellular life.”

The biomarker they identified, a steroid compound named 26-methylstigmastane (26-mes), has a unique structure that is currently only known to be synthesized by certain species of modern sponges called demosponges.

“This steroid biomarker is the first evidence that demosponges, and hence multicellular animals, were thriving in ancient seas at least as far back as 635 million years ago,” Zumberge said.

The work builds from a 2009 study by Love’s team, which reported the first compelling biomarker evidence for Neoproterozoic animals from a different steroid biomarker, called 24-isopropylcholestane (24-ipc), from rocks in South Oman. However, the 24-ipc biomarker evidence proved controversial since 24-ipc steroids are not exclusively made by demosponges and can be found in a few modern algae. The finding of the additional and novel 26-mes ancient biomarker, which is unique to demosponges, adds extra confidence that both compounds are fossil biomolecules produced by demosponges on an ancient seafloor.

The study also provides important new constraints on the groups of modern demosponges capable of producing unique steroid structures, which leave a distinctive biomarker record. The researchers found that within modern demosponges, certain taxonomic groups preferentially produce 26-mes steroids while others produce 24-ipc steroids.

“The combined Neoproterozoic demosponge sterane record, showing 24-ipc and 26-mes steranes co-occurring in ancient rocks, is unlikely attributed to an isolated branch or extinct stem-group of demosponges,” Love said. “Rather, the ability to make such unconventional steroids likely arose deep within the demosponge phylogenetic tree but now encompasses a wide coverage of modern demosponge groups.”

Stanford scientists have revealed the presence of water stored within a glacier in Greenland, where the rapidly changing ice sheet is a major contributor to the sea-level rise North America will experience in the next 100 years. This observation – which came out of a new way of looking at existing data – has been a missing component for models aiming to predict how melting glaciers will impact the planet.

The group made the discovery looking at data intended to reveal the changing shape of Store Glacier in West Greenland. But graduate student Alexander Kendrick figured out that the same data could measure something much more difficult to observe: its capacity to store water. The resulting study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, presents evidence of glacier meltwater from the surface being stored within damaged, solid ice. While ice melting at the surface has been well documented, little is known about what happens below glacier surfaces, and this observation of liquid water stored within solid ice may explain the complex flow behavior of some Greenland glaciers.

“Things like this don’t always come along, but when they do, that is the real ‘joy of the discovery’ component of Earth science,” said co-author Dustin Schroeder, an assistant professor of geophysics at Stanford University’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “This paper not only highlights this component’s existence, but gives you a way to observe it in time.”

Surface meltwater plays an important role in Greenland by lubricating the bottoms of ice sheets and impacting how retreating glaciers are affected by the ocean. The process of how the glaciers melt and where the water flows contributes to their behavior in a changing climate, as these factors could alter glaciers’ response to melting or impact the timeline for sea-level rise. Knowing that some liquid is intercepted within glaciers after melting on the surface may help scientists more accurately predict oceanic changes and help people prepare for the future, Schroeder said.

“All of our predictions of sea-level rise are missing this meltwater component,” Schroeder said. “I think we’re only just realizing how important it is to understand at a fundamental physical scale what glacier meltwater does on its way from the surface to the bed.”

A different perspective

The researchers analyzed data from a high-resolution, low-power radio-echo sounder (ApRES) collected hourly from May to November 2014. Behaving like an ultrasound for ice, the radar sends an electronic wave that bounces off variations in ice density to create an image of ice structure that shows how quickly the ice melts or moves over time.

When the team plotted the radar data, it looked suspicious, said Kendrick, who was lead author on the paper. They tested ideas such as temperature variations and battery fluctuations to account for what they saw, then wondered if water within the ice was causing the peculiarity. By looking at a different aspect of the data, Kendrick noticed that the idiosyncrasies coming from deep within the glacier correlated with information from a nearby weather station indicating that the glacier had been melting at the time the data was collected. That finding backed up the idea that they were detecting water that had melted on the surface and then trickled down into the glacier, where it got trapped.

“This is a new way you could use these instruments to answer scientific questions – instead of just looking at changes in the ice thickness, we’re also looking at changes in the ice properties itself,” said co-author Winnie Chu, a postdoctoral researcher in Schroeder’s lab. “Alex set up the groundwork for trying to understand how this meltwater storage changes through time.”

The study reveals a significant amount of meltwater produced from the local area surrounding the radar is being intercepted and stored within the ice in a region extending between 15 to 148 feet below the surface during the summer, then released or refrozen during winter.

“The water system of Greenland is critical for understanding what’s happening on the planet,” said Schroeder, who is also a fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “This component Alex has discovered shows that there is a piece of this glacier in particular – and maybe the entire Greenland hydrologic system in general – that we just were not modeling or thinking about in this way.”

The researchers hope this new geophysical method can be used to understand how meltwater impacts other glaciers and glacial systems, as well.

Shelled marine creatures living in increasingly acidified oceans face a fight for survival as the impacts of climate change spread, a new study suggests.

Researchers from the University of Tsukuba, Japan, and the University of Plymouth, UK, assessed the impact of rising carbon dioxide levels on the large predatory “triton shell” gastropod (Charonia lampas).

They found those living in regions with predicted future levels of CO₂ were on average around a third smaller than counterparts living in conditions seen throughout the world’s oceans today.

However there was also a noticeable negative impact on the thickness, density, and structure of their shells, causing visible deterioration to the shell surface.

Writing in Frontiers in Marine Science, scientists say the effects are down to the increased stresses placed on the species in waters where the pH is lower, which reduce their ability to control the calcification process.

And they have warned other shellfish are likely to be impacted in the same way, threatening their survival and that of other species that rely on them for food.

Dr Ben Harvey, Assistant Professor in the University of Tsukuba’s Shimoda Marine Research Center, said: “Ocean acidification is a clear threat to marine life, acting as a stressor for many marine animals. Here we found that the ability of the triton shells to produce and maintain their shells was hindered by ocean acidification, with the corrosive seawater making them smoother, thinner, and less dense. The extensive dissolution of their shells has profound consequences for calcified animals into the future as it is not something they can biologically control, suggesting that some calcified species might be unable to adapt to the acidified seawater if carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise unchecked.”

The research was conducted at a marine volcanic seep off the coast of Shikine-jima in Japan where carbon dioxide bubbling up through the seabed lowers seawater pH from present-day levels to future predicted levels.

Using computed tomography (CT) scanning, the scientists measured the thickness, density and structure of the shells, with shell thickness halved in areas with raised CO₂ while average shell length was reduced from 178mm in sites with present day levels to 112mm.

In some cases, these negative effects left body tissue exposed and the shell casing dissolved, with the corrosive effects of acidi?cation far more pronounced around the oldest parts of the shell.

Jason Hall-Spencer, Professor of Marine Biology at the University of Plymouth, added: “Our study clearly shows that increasing carbon dioxide levels cause seawater to become corrosive to shellfish. As these calcified animals are a fundamental component of coastal marine communities, ocean acidi?cation is expected to impact shellfish fisheries.”

Some 3,500 years ago, there was already a brisk trade in fish on the shores of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea. This conclusion follows from the analysis of 100 fish teeth that were found at various archeological sites in what is now Israel.

The saltwater fish from which these teeth originated is the gilthead sea bream, which is also known as the dorade. It was caught in the Bardawil lagoon on the northern Sinai coast and then transported from Egypt to sites in the southern Levant. This fish transport persisted for about 2,000 years, beginning in the Late Bronze Age and continuing into the early Byzantine Period, roughly 300 to 600 AD.

“Our examination of the teeth revealed that the sea bream must have come from a very saline waterbody, containing much more salt than the water in the Mediterranean Sea,” said Professor Thomas Tütken of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). The geoscientist participated in the study together with colleagues from Israel and Göttingen. The Bardawil lagoon formed 4,000 years ago, when the sea level finally stabilized after the end of the last Ice Age. The lagoon was fished intensively and was the point of origin of an extensive fish trade.

As demonstrated by archeological finds, fishing was an important economic factor for many ancient cultures. In the southern Levant, the gilthead sea bream with the scientific name of Sparus aurata was already being fished by local costal fishermen 50,000 years ago. More exotic fish, such as the Nile perch, were already being traded between Egypt and Canaan over 5,000 years ago. However, the current study shows the extent to which the trade between the neighbors increased in the Late Bronze Age and continued for 2,000 years into the Byzantine Period. “The Bardawil lagoon was apparently a major source of fish and the starting point for the fish deliveries to Canaan, today’s Israel, even though the sea bream could have been caught there locally,” stated co-author Professor Andreas Pack from the University of Göttingen.

Fish teeth document over 2,000 years of trade

Gilthead sea bream are a food fish that primarily feed on crabs and mussels. They have a durophagous dentition with button-shaped teeth that enable them to crush the shells to get at the flesh. For the purposes of the study, 100 large shell-cracking teeth of gilthead sea bream were examined. The teeth originate from 12 archeological sites in the southern Levant, some of which lie inland, some on the coast, and cover a time period from the Neolithic to the Byzantine Period. One approach of the researchers was to analyze the content of the oxygen isotopes ^18O and ^16O in the tooth enamel of the sea bream. The ratio of ^18O to ^16O provides information on the evaporation rate and thus on the salt content of the surrounding water in which the fish lived. In addition, the researchers were able to estimate the body size of the fish on the basis of the size of the shell-cracking teeth.

The analyses showed that some of the gilthead sea bream originated from the southeastern Mediterranean but that roughly three out of every four must have lived in a very saline body of water. The only water that comes into question in the locality is that of the Bardawil lagoon, the hypersaline water of which has a salt content of 3.9 to 7.4 percent, providing the perfect environment for the growth of sea bream. The Bardawil lagoon on the Sinai coast is approximately 30 kilometers long, 14 kilometers wide, and has a maximum depth of 3 meters. It is separated from the Mediterranean by a narrow sand bar.

“There was a mainland route from there to Canaan, but the fish were probably first dried and then transported by sea,” added Tütken. Even back then, sea bream were probably a very popular food fish, although it is impossible to estimate actual quantities consumed. However, it became apparent that the fish traded from the period of the Late Bronze Age were significantly smaller than in the previous era.

According to the researchers, this reduction in body size is a sign of an increase in the intensity of fishing that led to a depletion of stocks, which is to be witnessed also in modern times. “It would seem that fishing and the trade of fish expanded significantly, in fact to such a degree that the fish did not have the chance to grow as large,” continued Tütken, pointing out that this was an early form of the systematic commercial exploitation of fish, a type of proto-aquaculture, which persisted for some 2,000 years.

Taiwan’s government has issued a second invitation for Pope Francis to visit the country, a move which follows new developments in the Holy See’s relations with its rival in mainland China.

The country’s vice president Chen Chien-jen made the invitation during an audience with the Pope ahead of the Sunday canonization of his predecessor, Pope Paul VI.

The Pope “indicated that he would pray for Taiwan” and asked Chen to convey his greetings to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, Chen told reporters. He said that the Pope smiled when he was invited to visit Taiwan. Chen, who is Catholic, visited the Vatican for the 2016 canonization of Mother Teresa of Calcutta.

Responding to news of the invitation, President Tsai said in a Facebook page post “I want to thank the pope for his greetings and blessings.”

“We will use active and concrete actions to continue to support the pope and the Vatican to spread common values of freedom, justice, peace and caring to every corner in the world,” she said.

This is the second invitation from Taiwanese political leaders to the Pope.

In September 2017, President Tsai officially forwarded Pope Francis an invitation to visit the country by way of Cardinal Peter Turkson, who was in Taiwan for the International Congress of the Apostleship of the Sea.

There are about 300,000 Catholics in Taiwan, about two percent of the population.

The split between China and Taiwan dates back to 1949, when nationalist forces left the mainland following the success of the communist military on the mainland. Taiwan is officially known as the Republic of China, while the government on the mainland is the People’s Republic of China.

The Holy See has recognized the Taiwanese government, the Republic of China, since 1942, and does not currently have formal diplomatic relations with the government of the People’s Republic of China, which consolidated control of the mainland at the conclusion of a civil war in 1949.

In September, representatives of the Holy See and of China’s communist government signed a provisional agreement regarding the nomination of Catholic bishops that a Vatican communique said created conditions for “greater collaboration at the bilateral level.”

Vatican spokesman Greg Burke said the objective of the accord is “not political but pastoral” and will allow “the faithful to have bishops who are communion with Rome but at the same time recognized by Chinese authorities.”

There are about 12 million Catholics in China, but for decades they have been split between an underground Catholic Church in full communion with the Holy See, sometimes subject to government persecution, and the government-run Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, whose bishops are appointed by the Communist government and have sometimes been ordained without papal approval. Some of the CPCA’s bishops serve as members of the Chinese Communist Party’s National People’s Congress.

In May, Taiwan’s bishops held their first ad limina visit with the Pope in 10 years.

During the visit, the Taiwanese bishops invited Pope Francis to visit the country on the occasion of the National Eucharistic Congress, scheduled to take place in March 2019.

There have long been concerns among some Taiwanese leaders that the Holy See would drop diplomatic relations with Taiwan if it secures a diplomatic agreement with China. China regards Taiwan as a rebel province, not a sovereign nation.

In the past, China has demanded that other countries end diplomatic recognition of Taiwan as a price for increased economic or political cooperation, and the Holy See is among the most prominent sovereign entities to recognize the island nation. According to Agence France Presse, the Holy See is the country’s only official ally in Europe. Taiwan has lost five allies since 2016, with developing nations like El Salvador, Panama, and the Dominican Republic cutting ties under pressure from Beijing.

The nunciature in Taipei has not been led by a nuncio since Oct. 25, 1971, when the United Nations ceased to recognize the Taipei-based government as the government of China. At that time, the Holy See transferred its nuncio from Taipei and did not appoint a successor. Since then, the mission in Taipei has been headed only by a chargé d’affairs.

Archbishop John Hung Shan-chuan of Taipei, speaking to Reuters in March, said the Church in Taiwan did not anticipate that the Holy See and mainland China would establish diplomatic relations, because to do so requires sharing “common values with each other.”

“The values the Vatican holds are different from those of the Chinese Communist Party. Building ties with the Vatican requires values including freedom and democracy,” he said.

Only a small proportion of cases of dementia are thought to be inherited – the cause of the vast majority is unknown. Now, in a study published in the journal Nature Communications, a team of scientists led by researchers at the University of Cambridge believe they may have found an explanation: spontaneous errors in our DNA that arise as cells divide and reproduce.

The findings suggest that for many people with neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease, the roots of their condition will trace back to their time as an embryo developing in the womb.

In common neurodegenerative diseases, toxic proteins build up in the brain, destroying brain cells and damaging brain regions, leading to symptoms including personality changes, memory loss and loss of control. Only around one in twenty patients has a family history, where genetic variants inherited from one or both parents contributes to disease risk. The cause of the majority of cases – which are thought to affect as many as one in ten people in the developed world – has remained a mystery.

A team of researchers led by Professor Patrick Chinnery from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Mitochondrial Biology Unit and the Department of Clinical Neurosciences at the University of Cambridge hypothesised that clusters of brain cells containing spontaneous genetic errors could lead to the production of misfolded proteins with the potential to spread throughout the brain, eventually leading to neurodegenerative disease.

“As the global population ages, we’re seeing increasing numbers of people affected by diseases such as Alzheimer’s, yet we still don’t understand enough about the majority of these cases,” says Professor Chinnery. “Why do some people get these diseases while others don’t? We know genetics plays a part, but why do people with no family history develop the disease?”

To test their hypothesis, the researchers examined 173 tissue samples from the Newcastle Brain Tissue Resource, part of the MRC’s UK Brain Banks Network. The samples came from 54 individual brains: 14 healthy individuals, 20 patients with Alzheimer’s and 20 patients with Lewy body dementia, a common type of dementia estimated to affect more than 100,000 people in the UK.

The team used a new technique that allowed them to sequence 102 genes in the brain cells over 5,000 times. These included genes known to cause or predispose to common neurodegenerative diseases. They found ‘somatic mutations’ (spontaneous, rather than inherited, errors in DNA) in 27 out of the 54 brains, including both healthy and diseased brains.

Together, these findings suggest that the mutations would have arisen during the developmental phase – when the brain is still growing and changing – and the embryo is growing in the womb.

Combining their results with mathematical modelling, their findings suggest that ‘islands’ of brain cells containing these potentially important mutations are likely to be common in the general population.

“These spelling errors arise in our DNA as cells divide, and could explain why so many people develop diseases such as dementia when the individual has no family history,” says Professor Chinnery. “These mutations likely form when our brain develops before birth – in other words, they are sat there waiting to cause problems when we are older.”

“Our discovery may also explain why no two cases of Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s are the same. Errors in the DNA in different patterns of brain cells may manifest as subtly different symptoms.”

Professor Chinnery says that further research is needed to confirm whether the mutations are more common in patients with dementia. While it is too early to say whether this research will aid diagnosis or treatment this endorses the approach of pharmaceutical companies who are trying to develop new treatments for rare genetic forms of neurodegenerative diseases.

“The question is: how relevant are these treatments going to be for the ‘common-or-garden’ variety without a family history? Our data suggests the same genetic mechanisms could be responsible in non-inherited forms of these diseases, so these patients may benefit from the treatments being developed for the rare genetic forms.”

Engineers and software developers around the world are seeking to create technology that lets users touch, grasp and manipulate virtual objects, while feeling like they are actually touching something in the real world.

Scientists at EPFL and ETH Zurich have just made a major step toward this goal with their new haptic glove, which is not only lightweight – under 8 grams per finger – but also provides feedback that is extremely realistic. The glove is able to generate up to 40 Newtons of holding force on each finger with just 200 Volts and only a few milliWatts of power. It also has the potential to run on a very small battery. That, together with the glove’s low form factor (only 2 mm thick), translates into an unprecedented level of precision and freedom of movement.

“We wanted to develop a lightweight device that – unlike existing virtual-reality gloves – doesn’t require a bulky exoskeleton, pumps or very thick cables,” said Herbert Shea, head of EPFL’s Soft Transducers Laboratory (LMTS).

The scientists’ glove, called DextrES, has been successfully tested on volunteers in Zurich and will be presented at the upcoming ACM Symposium on User Interface Software and Technology (UIST).

Fabric, metal strips and electricity

DextrES is made of nylon with thin elastic metal strips running over the fingers. The strips are separated by a thin insulator.

When the user’s fingers come into contact with a virtual object, the controller applies a voltage difference between the metal strips causing them to stick together via electrostatic attraction – this produces a braking force that blocks the finger’s or thumb’s movement.

Once the voltage is removed, the metal strips glide smoothly and the user can once again move his fingers freely.

Tricking your brain

For now the glove is powered by a very thin electrical cable, but thanks to the low voltage and power required, a very small battery could eventually be used instead.

“The system’s low power requirement is due to the fact that it doesn’t create a movement, but blocks one”, explained Shea. The researchers also need to conduct tests to see just how closely they have to simulate real conditions to give users a realistic experience.

“The human sensory system is highly developed and highly complex. We have many different kinds of receptors at a very high density in the joints of our fingers and embedded in the skin. As a result, rendering realistic feedback when interacting with virtual objects is a very demanding problem and is currently unsolved. Our work goes one step in this direction, focusing particularly on kinesthetic feedback,” said Otmar Hilliges, head of the Advanced Interactive Technologies Lab at ETH Zurich.

In this joint research project, the hardware was developed by EPFL at its Microcity campus in Neuchâtel, and the virtual reality system was created by ETH Zurich, which also carried out the user tests.

“Our partnership with the EPFL lab is a very good match. It allows us to tackle some of the longstanding challenges in virtual reality at a pace and depth that would otherwise not be possible,” added Hilliges.

The next step will be to scale up the device and apply it to other parts of the body using conductive fabric.

“Gamers are currently the biggest market, but there are many other potential applications – especially in healthcare, such as for training surgeons. The technology could also be applied in augmented reality,” said Shea.

People with psychopathic tendencies are slightly more likely to be a company boss, but a new study finds men are allowed a pass for those inclinations while women are punished.

The study, published online in the Journal of Applied Psychology, finds concern over psychopathic tendencies in bosses may be overblown, but that gender can function to obscure the real effects.

“Aggressive behavior is seen as more prototypical of men, and so people allow more displays of that kind of behavior without social sanctions,” said Dr. Peter Harms, associate professor of management at The University of Alabama. “If women behave counter to gender norms, it seems like they get punished for it more readily.”

Karen Landay, lead author on the paper and doctoral student in management at UA, and co-author Dr. Marcus Credé, assistant professor of psychology at Iowa State University, are part of a review of previous studies along with new research.

A psychopathic personality has three characteristics, including boldness in asserting dominance over others, being impulsive without inhibition, and a lack of empathy. There have been several studies showing people with some level of those traits are over represented as organizational bosses.

For this study, the researchers set out to determine whether there are optimal levels of psychopathy for success as a leader and if gender made a difference. They found tendencies help slightly when a person is rising through management ranks, but bosses behaving this way are less effective as leaders.

“Overall, although there is no positive or negative relation to a company’s bottom line when psychopathic tendencies are present in organizational leaders, their subordinates will still hate them,” Harms said. “So we can probably assume they behave in a manner that is noxious and whatever threats they make to ‘motivate’ workers don’t really pay off.”

When the data is broken down by gender, though, it shows that psychopathic traits in men help them emerge as leaders and be seen as effective, but these same tendencies are seen as a negative in women.

“The existence of this double standard is certainly disheartening,” Landay said. “I can imagine that women seeking corporate leadership positions getting told that they should emulate successful male leaders who display psychopathic tendencies. But these aspiring female leaders may then be unpleasantly surprised to find that their own outcomes are not nearly as positive.”

This double standard could be a fruitful area for future research, but, for Harms, the implications for organizations are clear.

“We should be more aware of and less tolerant of bad behavior in men,” he said. “It is not OK to lie, cheat, steal and hurt others whether it is in the pursuit of personal ambition, organizational demands or just for fun.”

A radical new approach combining archaeology, genetics and microscopy can reveal long-forgotten secrets of human diet, sanitation and movement from studying parasites in ancient poo, according to new Oxford University research.

Researchers at the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology and School of Archaeology have applied genetic analysis to 700-year-old parasites found in archaeological stool samples to understand a variety of characteristics of a human population. It is the first time this combined parasitological and ancient DNA (aDNA) approach has been applied to understand the epidemiology of historical parasites. The findings have just been published in Proceedings of The Royal Society B.

Gathered from medieval latrines in Lübeck, Germany, these armoured relics that passed through human faeces – nematode (roundworm) and cestode (tapeworms) eggs – have tough shells that withstand time and decay, perfectly preserving their DNA.

Lead researcher Adrian Smith said: ‘This new approach could be critical as an artefact independent tool for the study of people in the past. Human faeces were not typically traded but the parasites which can live in humans for 10 years or more are deposited wherever the people went.’

Analysis shows that high numbers of cestodes (tapeworms) were found in latrines from medieval Lübeck, one of the world’s leading ports during the Middle Ages. As freshwater fish was a known source of these cestodes the researchers could deduce that in Lübeck they had a diet high in freshwater fish which wasn’t effectively cooked, a practice distinct from other regions.

Further analysis reveals that at around 1300-1325 there was a shift from the fish-derived parasite to a beef -derived parasite, which indicates a change in diet, culinary culture and food sources.

Adrian Smith said: ‘People of Lübeck may have stopped eating raw freshwater fish or disrupted the cestode lifecycle. Interestingly, the shift in eating habits coincides with an increase in tannery and butchery based industry on the freshwater side of Lübeck and pollution may have interfered with the fish-derived parasite life cycle.’

The aDNA sequences from the nematodes which were found in a lot of archaeological sites also helped researchers identify that Lübeck contained the most diverse parasite population. This is consistent with its importance and high level of connectivity to other places. Significantly, the port of medieval Bristol was the second most diverse location and the aDNA data supports a link between Bristol and Lübeck.

Adrian Smith said: ‘We can use this approach to tell us a lot about specific locations including levels of sanitation, health status, dietary practices and connectivity of different sites. This might be of particular importance with populations where classical historical records are regarded as poor or insufficient. Our ambition is to develop a “molecular archaeoparasitological” map of Europe through time and space, using the parasites to inform us about human populations in the past.’

By Michael Lelyveld

China’s government has been trying to put the best face on its economic growth prospects as it struggles with tariff pressures and a loss of investor confidence at home.

The clash between the government’s “good news” campaign and the market’s responses played out during the recent Golden Week holiday when official media issued a series of upbeat reports ahead of the reopening of trading on China’s stock exchanges on Oct. 8.

A lengthy analysis by the official Xinhua news agency on Oct. 7 offered “Key statistics revealing China’s economic resilience.” The “good news” story cited selected travel data during the one-week break along with figures on consumer spending and fixed asset investment in projects like buildings and roads.

The commentary came shortly after the official English-language China Daily published a similar holiday report titled “Chinese economy on track for future growth,” hailing advances in high-speed rail, poverty reduction, the growth of foreign exchange reserves since 1978, and other bright spots.

The state media reports echoed themes of a 36,000-character white paper on economic and trade relations with the United States, released by the government on Sept. 24.

Separate holiday stories also appeared on subjects such as a rise in cement production, growth in the telecom sector, and an increase in profits of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

The bullish reports paved the way for an announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Oct. 7 that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for most banks by 1 percentage point to pump funds into the economy.

The news on the eve of renewed trading the next day should have boosted the stock market. Instead, the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index plunged 3.7 percent.

The FTSE China A50 index of leading shares lost more than 4.8 percent in its worst performance since January 2016, Bloomberg News said.

On the first day back from the holiday, the central parity rate of the yuan weakened by 165 basis points, or hundredths of a percent, falling further the next day to 6.9019 to the U.S. dollar in official fixings.

The slippage raised doubts about whether the PBOC would defend the currency against sinking below 7.0 to the dollar this year.

The Monday slide in the Shanghai index was followed by a 5.2-percent drop to a four-year low on Thursday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.1 percent the day before.

The adverse reactions appeared to be a sign that the government’s “good news” campaign for the holiday shutdown had backfired. Instead of taking encouragement from the PBOC’s reserve-cutting measure, the markets showed dismay that it was needed at all.

“The decision … is an indication that authorities in the world’s second-largest economy are getting nervous about a long-drawn [out] trade war with the U.S.,” the CNBC financial network said.

Not buying the ‘good news’

While officials hoped that the holiday would give them a chance to make the best case for the economy, investors worried about the buildup of bad news. The negative signs included a rise in U.S. interest rates, the threat of more tariffs, and a tough speech on China policy by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Oct. 4.

“A weeklong holiday for Chinese markets meant investors had an entire five days of news and data to digest in just one session, including a trade war between China and the U.S.,” a Business Insider report said.

The wave of positive reports proved unable to overcome less favorable developments, including the PBOC’s own report on Oct. 7 that its foreign exchange reserves fell in September by a larger-than-expected U.S. $22.7 billion to a 14-month low of $3.087 trillion.

The yuan also declined against the dollar in September for the sixth month in a row, Reuters reported. The currency fell 3.95 percent in the third quarter, marking the longest losing streak since 1992, Bloomberg said.

There were at least two explanations for the steep market selloff.

The first is that the government misread market sentiment about the state of the economy when it decided on the timing of the RRR announcement.

The second is that investors weren’t buying the official “good news” stories. Both explanations appear to be true.

“Explaining the twists and turns in China’s stock markets is an exercise in wild guessing, but I suspect that indicators of slowing growth, the Pence speech and only a modest government stimulus response are to blame for the selloff,” said Scott Kennedy, deputy director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

For the week, the Shanghai index was down 7.6 percent, capping a decline of over 22 percent in 2018. The Dow was down 4.2 percent on the week, but up by 0.2 percent since the start of the year.

The Shanghai market started the new week with a loss of 1.49 percent.

On Monday, Reuters quoted an unnamed Beijing-based trader, saying that “investors have little confidence in their government’s willingness to support the market.”

The conclusions to be drawn from China’s “good news” stories and the market reaction aren’t pretty.

One possible reading is that state media tried to mislead investors about the weakening economic trends. Support for this argument may be found in a New York Times report on Sept. 28, citing government efforts to censor bad economic news.

The report cited a government directive to journalists on economic topics to be “managed.” These include “worse-than-expected data that could show the economy is slowing,” “local government debt risks” and “the impact of the trade war with the United States,” the paper said.

“The government’s new directive betrays a mounting anxiety among Chinese leaders that the country could be heading into a growing economic slump,” said The Times.

Walking a fine line

The policy may undermine the credibility of China’s economic reporting, as well as data collection by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which has struggled to curb falsification for over a decade.

The Xinhua report of Oct. 7 on China’s “economic resilience” suggests that the agency may be walking a fine line between salesmanship and deception in addressing economic doubts.

On fixed asset investment (FAI), for example, NBS officials argued that growth was showing “new positive trends,” although the 5.3-percent rate in the first eight months of 2018 fell 2 percentage points from the year-earlier period.

The report failed to mention that official FAI growth rates have been declining for years and now stand at the lowest level since at least 1995, according to the Financial Times. Growth of infrastructure investment alone has plummeted to 4.2 percent from 19.8 percent a year before, NBS reports show.

An alternate reading of the “good news” debacle may be more disturbing, however, if it turns out that the government has been persuaded by its own rosy reports.

Having failed to convince the markets, the question is whether the government has convinced itself that economic growth remains strong.

Although it seems less likely, some degree of self- deception would explain the government’s apparent surprise after its 1-percent cut in the RRR was followed by a 3.7- percent drop in stocks.

After years of official data inflation, some economists have wondered whether China’s leaders have access to more realistic economic estimates before they make policy decisions.

The question has remained open since at least 2007, when Premier Li Keqiang, then Communist Party secretary of Liaoning province, called official economic figures “man-made” and “for reference only,” according to a leaked memo.

More than a decade later, Li’s comments may come back to haunt the government if the markets continue to reject its “good news” campaign.

Last week, China Daily reaffirmed that “China’s economy is set to continue its steady run for the rest of the year despite lingering economic headwinds,” citing a “recent” interview with NBS director Ning Jizhe.

By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

Ministers said media misunderstood the prime minister’s speech calling for national reconciliation, rejecting suggestions that this might mean an amnesty offer for last year’s parliament attackers.

Government ministers have rushed to dispel fears that Prime Minister Zoran Zaev’s call for “national reconciliation” means that he is willing to consider an amnesty for the people who attacked parliament last year in exchange for the votes of opposition MPs in support of constitutional amendments to change the country’s name.

“The prime minister talked about reconciliation, extending hands and bridging discords, and there was absolutely no call for an amnesty,” Edmond Ademi, the minister without portfolio responsible for the diaspora, told media on Monday.

Ademi insisted that the ongoing trials of those involved in the bloody rampage in parliament on April 27 last year, which involved several MPs from the main opposition VMRO DPMNE party, have nothing to do with Zaev’s call for reconciliation.

“It is a fact that we are divided, MPs and society alike… Reconciliation has a human dimension and an amnesty is something completely different,” he said.

During his speech on Monday, at the start of parliament’s plenary session on the proposed constitutional changes that would change the country’s name as part of the deal with Greece, Prime Minister Zaev sparked confusion after mentioning several times that now was the moment for reconciliation, although he did not use the word ‘amnesty’.

“I send a message of forgiveness and reconciliation regarding April 27 and the events that happened,” Zaev said.

The attack on parliament in April last year happened amid high political tensions in the country as the former ruling VMRO DPMNE attempted to stop Zaev’s Social Democrats from forming a government.

A mob injured some 100 people including ten MPs from the new majority. Zaev was among those injured.

In March this year, the prosecution filed terrorism charges against 30 people who were involved, including former high officials and current VMRO DPMNE MPs. The trial is still ongoing.

Zaev’s recent speech comes against a backdrop of widespread concerns about whether the government will muster the required two-thirds majority in parliament to get the constitutional changes that envisage the country adopting a new name, the Republic of North Macedonia.

Changing Macedonia’s name to end a long-running dispute with Greece would unlock the country’s EU and NATO accession bids. Zaev’s government has insisted that it has no intention to bargain for support for the deal with an amnesty for the opposition representatives and supporters who are currently standing trial.

The first day of debate on the proposed constitutional changes saw the ruling parties and the opposition still seemingly entrenched in opposing positions.

While MPs from the governing majority kept urging their colleagues to join them in taking a historic decision for the future of the country, to which they said there is no alternative, opposition MPs continued to insist that the name agreement jeopardises the identity of Macedonians.

VMRO DPMNE MP Ilija Dimovski suggested that the alternative was a “strategic partnership with the EU and NATO… until a solution to the name dispute is found”.

The ruling parties can count on the endorsement of only 71 MPs. They would need at least nine opposition MPs to vote in favour of the changes in order to reach the required number of 80 votes in favour in the 120-seat parliament.

The parliament session is due to continue on Tuesday as some 50 more legislators have signed up to speak but have yet to do so.

Saudi Arabia is ostracized after many poor decisions by its crown prince – now accused of orchestrating a journalist’s murder.

By Bruce Riedel*

The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul will have long-lasting implications for the region and especially for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The grisliness of the affair has already tarnished the reputation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, perhaps irredeemably. The Trump administration’s ambivalent response is a measure of the huge stakes at risk for Washington.

A Saudi journalist who undertook self-imposed exile in Virginia in 2017, Khashoggi became an increasingly outspoken critic of the crown prince. In his last opinion piece before disappearing into the consulate, he lambasted MBS for starting the brutal Saudi war in Yemen which has put 20 million Yemenis at risk of malnutrition and disease, a quagmire costing Riyadh at least $50 billion a year. He compared the crown prince to Syrian President Bashar Assad and suggested Saudi Arabia lost its “dignity.” He pressed for the Saudis and allies to cease fire in Yemen immediately. Apparently, this was a bridge too far for the crown prince who knows the war is part of his ugly legacy.

It’s increasingly clear that the Saudis lured the journalist to visit the consulate to collect official paperwork to remarry. A 15-man hit team composed of members of the Royal Guard and other security services reportedly flew into Istanbul the morning of October 2, killed Khashoggi and returned to Saudi Arabia that night with his corpse. Saudi Arabia denies the accusation, but offers no credible alternative explanation for his disappearance. The Royal Guard Regiment is under the direct personal command of the crown prince, putting his fingerprints all over the crime. At home, Saudi media lamely blame the affair on Qatar, the kingdom’s bête noire.

For the last four years MBS sought to portray himself as a reformer who understands the kingdom must change to survive. He allowed women to drive and opened the country to concerts, wrestling and movies. The intense and expensive lobbying campaign worked with many, and the prince was lauded from Boston to San Francisco. Donald Trump hailed him as a reformer before the United Nations.

The mirage is now shattered. The crown prince is a reckless and dangerous disrupter. He shakes down his subjects for their wealth, detains women activists who demand rights, mutes the former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in house arrest and tries to bully countries from Canada to Lebanon. The pattern of behavior has been obvious for years, but the veil only fell in Istanbul.

Oil reserves, the world’s second largest, means countries must deal with Saudi Arabia, and it is unlikely King Salman will hold his son accountable. But the crown prince faces global condemnation, making the kingdom an increasingly shaky partner. Investors already turn away in droves, and capital has fled. Instead of making Saudi Arabia more stable, the impulsive and poor decisions of the heir apparent are making the nation more fragile. The kingdom is less stable today than at any time during the last half century. The king ousted his son’s rivals, though the royal family is used to consensual governance not autocracy.

Western powers likely do not want to be seen embracing an accused murderer who uses diplomatic facilities to exterminate his critics. The fawning photo ops and glowing reviews are over, and the kingdom is weaker. It will be harder than ever to convince skeptical legislators in Washington, London, Ottawa and other capitals to approve arms sales to a thuggish monarchy. Demands for war crimes tribunals will intensify.

Iran is a winner from the crime in Istanbul despite its own awful record of abusing journalists and sponsoring terrorism. Tehran is delighted to see its archenemy under fire. And the longer MBS pursues his campaign in Yemen, the more Iran will encourage the Houthis to bleed the kingdom. As Khashoggi noted, it costs the Houthis little to fire low-tech ballistic missiles at Saudi cities, which are shot down by high-tech Patriot missiles that cost $3 million dollars each.

Turkey plays the affair cautiously, leaking damaging information, but also promising to cooperate with an “investigation.” An industrial cleanup crew appearing at the consulate hours before the Turkish forensic team’s arrival indicates the lack of seriousness for this investigation. Ankara wants to keep the focus on Riyadh and away from its own troubles with journalists.

The kingdom’s closest allies in Manama and Abu Dhabi stand with the crown prince. They have little choice. Other leaders in the Arab and Muslim world undoubtedly enjoy watching the Saudis squirm, as few have affection for the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia is America’s oldest ally in the region: The relationship dates to 1943 when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt hosted two future kings, Faisal and Khalid, in the White House as emissaries of their father, King Abdel Aziz. The relationship is based on overlapping interests, especially oil, not on shared values. Saudi Arabia and the United States share no values in common, and the difference is especially stark on freedom of expression. The relationship has always been brittle, prone to crisis, but every American president since FDR has courted the Saudis.

No US president has courted the kingdom as avidly and crudely as Trump. He’s lied about a fake $110 billion arms deal, covered up the carnage in Yemen and tried to fashion an Arab NATO around Saudi Arabia’s extreme Wahhabi Sunni sectarianism. Saudi Arabia bought more than $112 billion in US arms during the Obama administration, half in one enormous deal in 2010. So far during the Trump administration, the Saudis have bought less than $5 billion of US arms, which Trump disparagingly called “peanuts.” The president’s adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has built his entire plan for Middle East peace with help of Israelis and Saudi Arabia. Having bet his Middle East policy on MBS, Trump is now accountable for his protégé’s record. No wonder the president looks uncomfortable when discussing Khashoggi’s death.

Responding to Trump’s vague talk of “severe punishment” for Khashoggi’s murder, the crown prince has promised severe punishment for any attempt to sanction him and Saudi Arabia for the disappearance. The Saudis risk creating an ever deepening divide and self-reinforcing isolation with the world community. But they also can’t admit the truth. One possible attempt is blaming the murder on “rogue elements,” to which Trump alluded. The usually vocal and articulate foreign minister is avoiding the media.

Saudi Arabia does need reform. Its welfare state is unsustainable. It has the third largest defense budget in the world and is stuck in an unwinnable conflict with the Arab world’s poorest country. Its friends are increasingly concerned, but unable to help it from making costly errors. If there was any sign of a learning curve or a maturing leadership role by MBS, there might be ground for hope. Unfortunately, the dark side of despotism is entrenched.

The Middle East has been in acute turmoil since the Arab Spring of 2011. Broken states litter the region. Civil wars thrive. A rogue Saudi Arabian prince has opened a new Pandora’s box.

The United States and the United Kingdom have enormous leverage with Saudi Arabia due to the arms relationship. The Royal Saudi Air Force is totally dependent on spare parts, maintenance, upgrades, expertise and munitions from Washington and London. The Istanbul incident is an opportunity to press the king to unilaterally cease fire in Yemen and fulfill Jamal Khashoggi’s last wish to restore Saudi dignity.

*Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, part of the Brookings Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. In addition, Riedel serves as a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy. He retired in 2006 after 30 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency, including postings overseas. He was a senior advisor on South Asia and the Middle East to the last four presidents of the United States in the staff of the National Security Council at the White House. He is the author of Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States Since FDR, published in 2017. Read an excerpt.

By Rev. Gregory Jensen*

The protesters were mostly high school and university students. They carried black balloons, dozens of them – one for each teenaged orphaned girl who died while in police custody in a March 2017 schoolroom fire. Walking in solidarity with the hundreds of other protesters down Guatemala City’s 6A Calle was a small group of Serbian Orthodox Christian nuns. The abbess of the monastery, Madre Inés, told me that she and the nuns of Holy Trinity Orthodox Monastery in Villa Nueva, Guatemala came to the crowded Constitution Square in front of Palacio Nacional de la Cultura to demand those in the Guatemalan government responsible for the girls’ death actually be held responsible.

Advocating for the well-being of Guatemala’s orphans comes naturally to the nuns. For many years they operated the Hogar Rafael Ayau.  Named in honor of Madre Inés’s great, great grandfather Don Rafael Ayau, who in the 1850’s founded the first orphanage in Guatemala City (“The Home of Mercy”), the Hogar Rafael Ayau is less than a 30-minute drive away from the peace and quiet of the nuns’ rural monastery. But the Hogar is located in the noise of Guatemala City’s crime-infested Zone 1. Changes in Guatemalan law led to the end of the hogar as a sanctuary for the orphaned girls and boys who found a safe and loving home behind its walls.

But changes in the law, didn’t change the nuns’ commitment to children.  Even while their ownership of the Hogar Rafael Ayau was at risk, the nuns were offering job training programs, online education, schooling for children and help for local merchants. And so, when 19 girls (the final number would later climb to more than 40), died in an inferno at the Hogar Seguro Virgen de la Asunción in San José Pinula, it was only natural that the nuns would make their voices heard.

A two-story Hindu temple reportedly covering 40,000 square feet on a 28-acres plot, which claims to accommodate 7,800 devotees, is opening in Groton (Massachusetts) with 12-days of ceremonies ending on October 20.

New England Shirdi Sai Temple is designed in traditional style following Vastu Shastra and whose main worship hall can hold 500 congregants, will reportedly cater to about 5,000 families of the area. Ground floor of this temple, whose groundbreaking was held in 2015 and which contains three golden spires, will be used for community activities/functions. There are plans of fountain pools in the landscaping.

Temple Grand Inauguration and Pran Pratishta Mahotsav festivities; besides ancient Hindu rituals and food; are also reportedly showcasing traditional music, dance and culture. Ceremonies include kumbhabhishekam, cow worship, various poojas and aartis, 1008 kalasha-stapana, homam, archana, poornahuthi, shanti kalyanam, Mata Ka Jagaran, etc.; ending with Shej Aarti starting 10:00 pm on October 20.

It is operated by non-profit New England Shirdi Sai Parivaar formed in 2006; whose vision includes “spread the message of love, kindness, unity and make a meaningful contribution to the welfare of the mankind” and beliefs include “Faith and Patience”.

Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada today, commended efforts of temple leaders and area community towards realizing this temple.

Rajan Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, further said that it was important to pass on Hindu spirituality, concepts and traditions to coming generations amidst so many distractions in the consumerist society and hoped that this temple would help in this direction.

Temple opens daily at 08:30 am and besides regular worship services, also celebrates various Hindu festivals, holds yoga and pranayama classes and kids’ chess, organizes bhajans and free medical/dental checkups, etc.

It offers various prayer services inside and outside the temple, including free Car Pooja in the temple premises. Its charitable/philanthropy activities have reportedly included helping Haiti earthquake victims and India flood victims, food distribution to Lowell homeless shelter and clothes distribution to the needy, volunteering in Stoneham Zoo landscaping project, etc. Mahender Singh is the President; while Sateesh Sharma and Nagendra Sastry are temple priests. It is seeking donations.