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Obama’s Russian Dilemma – Analysis

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By Amit Gupta

Has the shooting down of MH-17 heralded the start of a new Cold War? Observers in the west have likened the situation in Europe to 1914 and the hawks in Western Europe and North America have been calling for tougher sanctions against Russia. Caught in the middle of all this is President Obama who would prefer that Russia and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin just went away.

From an American perspective, Vladimir Putin has become an irritant for while not posing an existential threat to the US and Western Europe, he does create enough waves to require some form of international action. After the annexation of Crimea, President Obama declared Russia to be a regional power and said that he was more concerned about a dirty bomb going off in New York. The American president was doing his best to minimise the American reaction to the events in Ukraine given his domestic political compulsions. First, the US is recovering from two wars the long term costs of which are over US$3 trillion. Second, despite all the hype from Wall Street and the stock market, the economy remains fragile and cannot be pushed off the cliff by another conflict. Third, Americans have war fatigue as witnessed by the reluctance to get involved in Syria, and lastly, no one, except perhaps John Simon McCain, wants to get into a shooting war with the Russians.

Nor, in actual fact, do the Europeans, despite their protestations, want to do much about Russia. They depend on Russia for 30 per cent of their energy supplies and in an age of globalisation, Russian capital has penetrated the financial and real estate markets of the European continent. More importantly, the Europeans took the peace dividend from the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and drastically slashed their militaries. Despite events in Ukraine, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy – the big four – are not seriously discussing raising defense expenditures. Nor can they. Their aging populations and generous social welfare programmes require shifting money from guns to butter and not the other way around. So the question then arises, what to do about Russia?

Both the US and Europe are implementing harder sanctions that no doubt will hurt the Russian oligarchy. There may also be a possible push from Europe to have the 2018 World Cup taken away from Moscow. It that were to happen it would be a huge propaganda defeat for Putin since he used the Sochi Olympics to boost his international image. Having said that, there is a genuine danger that this will blow up in the face of the west because the Russians will turn the energy screws on Ukraine, and while the EU was very keen on having Ukraine move out from under the Russian umbrella, it is unlikely to foot the large bill for Ukraine’s economic problems and its energy supplies.

Further, the Russians have the option of looking east although this is something that goes against the recent history and cultural mindset. Historically, the Russians have sought to be a western nation with the earthy Nikita Khrushchev telling them to be western and not perch on their toilet seats like eagles. Under Yeltsin and Putin the drive to become western has continued with the Russians being openly dismissive of the BRICS in public forums and claiming that they are a western nation. Yet, in the current climate of growing sanctions, it is the BRICs, particularly China, that can save Vladimir Putin’s regime – the recent US$40 billion energy deal with Beijing being a case in point. China, in fact, can be the driver for greater economic growth for Russia through the building of pipelines and infrastructure but Moscow must worry at the same time that this will make it economically dependent on its eastern neighbour.

What is likely to happen, now that tighter sanctions have been implemented, is that after a decent waiting period the west can cool down the rhetoric about Russia while Moscow itself will be able to work around the sanctions. And given how every week a new issue catches the attention of the US media, Ukraine will be consigned to the back pages where it was before the shootdown of MH-17 put it back in the news as a crisis. Neither Europe nor the US is likely to push for military actions since it the one scenario that no one in Europe wants.

Ironically, the real winners in this may be China and India. The Chinese have been worried about the US pivot to Asia and events in Ukraine take the heat off Beijing as it solves to deal with the Senakaku-Diaoyu islands and tensions in the South China Sea. India too can be a winner if it is able to use the Ukraine crisis to better engage Russia on issues of energy supply and arms sales because Russia desperately needs friends right now. India-Russia trade is pledged to cross the US$9 billion mark but it is a far cry from a figure comparable to India-China trade. This could be easier to do because Russia’s limited options in light of the sanctions force it to look east and to strike potentially lucrative deals with the very countries it once rejected as eastern and backward.

Amit Gupta
Associate Professor, Department of International Security, USAF Air War College, Alabama

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Air Force or the Department of Defense.

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Pakistan: Of Messiahs And Marches – Analysis

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By Salma Malik

It is both tragic and funny how the poor Pakistanis take anyone and everyone for the political messiah. All this proverbial messiah needs to do is say the right things with passion and fervour. Interestingly, the way Pakistani decision-makers run the country’s daily affairs and take their subjects for fools, makes the messiahs’ work easier and convenient. Whether these messiahs deliver what they promised is a matter of great debate.

The latest in this series are the not-so-new Imran Khan, and Tahir ul-Qadri. Both promise to bring revolution by leading long marches into the capital city to the added discomfort and misery of the general public – who are quite done with long marches, cordoned cities, road blocks, cellular services shut for days and the recent addition: gas stations running out of supplies. It is essentially like being in a state of emergency, with everyone anticipating the worse and wishing for stability. But there is always a segment of the population that is willing to march along.

In a way, this is all about democracy – people voicing their sentiment in a country that has not been famous for democratic traditions. The previous military rule paved way for a democratic government, albeit hinged on extremely fragile foundations. However, despite the inherent fragility, the Pakistan People’s Party-led (PPP) government not only survived the promised five years but also instituted constitutional reforms that would, in the long run, strengthen the country’s democratic foundations, and successfully concluded its tenure via a smooth and near-peaceful political transition. This happened despite the existence of a strong, belligerent opposition and a hyper active judiciary. However, the messiahs and marches haunted the PPP just as much, primarily because of the fact that they failed to perform on the governance meter – with a ready excuse that there was no space for them to perform.

For the current government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, however, this excuse cannot work. Voted into power with control of the most powerful province in the country, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) strength has been its strong team of technocrats, its investor-friendly vision and unlike the PPP, that was often considered the rich and corrupt boys’ club and passionately disliked by the kingmakers, the former has friends and protectors in the right places and enjoys a sizeable clout. Acting as a messiah themselves, the Sharifs and their team used the right language to a roaring success in the 2013 election; and followed closely by la capitain – Imran Khan – who was considered the best thing to happen to Pakistan in a long time. The PML-N voters were a steady traditional vote base who invariably cast their fate in their party’s favour. The captain’s voters were the first-timers, young, vibrant, and holding onto the promise that their vote really matters, and they infused energy into skeptics to cast their votes as well.

Easily distinguishable from their youthful looks and sparkling eyes as if they were revolutionaries and not part of an evolutionary process. But this is the latest fad led by Uncle Sam, where the discourse on revolution has been reinvented and reinterpreted. So the TV-anglesite Tahir ul-Qadri landed from Canada and marched into Islamabad after making strong “revolutionary” declarations at mammoth rallies across Punjab, with a large number of followers in January 2013. After a three-day sit-in seeking the end of injustice committed by the incumbent government in harsh weather, he went home in the comfort of his trailer with all promises frozen, making a mockery of everything.

Then, as now, Imran Khan was the other revolutionary torch-bearer, but not joining hands with Qadri. Once again, they will find blind followers, similar in their passion, but different in their outlook, carrying the same sentiment with which a majority of them went to vote: transforming the country into the promise these messiahs throw at them. Yet, these innocents fail to realise that these messiahs are independent in neither their thoughts nor actions. Indulging in conspiracy theories – that is a South Asian norm – their handlers have a different agenda to play. While the incumbent government’s mega transportation schemes will not change the lot and effect positive change in the lives of ordinary citizens suffering the daily brunt on gross mis-governance, these empty histrionics will too will not lead us to the promised land the public endlessly seeks.

At a time when the country is undergoing a tremendous security transformation and is faces massive internal governance issues, the need is not for the rulers to act with paranoia and convert the country into a battlefield – which may, owing to their mishandling of the issue, push the country into civil unrest – but to show wisdom and insight and handle the problem at hand, manage the political crises that are much their own creation; and once settled, introspectively try and be democratic and govern the country in a manner befitting democrats; happily bid farewell to the Maulana to prepare for another march; and allow the public to lead our daily lives.

Salma Malik
Assistant Professor, Department of Defence & Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad

The post Pakistan: Of Messiahs And Marches – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

There Can Be Only One Middle East Victor – OpEd

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After months of carnage committed by Muslim extremists, there is finally some blowback. The decision by President Obama to provide military and humanitarian aid comes late, but it is never too late to save innocent lives. Children are being beheaded, entire villages are being ransacked, Christian shrines are being destroyed—all of this and more by those who claim to have God on their side.

Pope Francis pointedly condemned these actions, saying, “One cannot generate hatred in God’s name. One cannot make war in God’s name.” We expect anti-religious regimes to plunder the innocent without a trace of remorse—that is the legacy of Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot—but when genocide is committed in the name of God, it is too much to bear. This explains why Archbishop Giorgio Lingua, the Vatican nuncio to Iraq, endorsed the U.S. response. “This is something that had to be done, otherwise [the Islamic State militants] could not be stopped.”

There are other good signs, as well. The U.S. response is allowing the Kurds, our only friend s in the region, save for the Israelis, to fight back and recapture towns lost to the fanatics. The head of the Arab League has condemned the jihadists for their “crimes against humanity.” Egypt has declared war on the Muslim Brotherhood. And Israel is finding that these Muslim barbarians are such a threat to the entire region that even its old foes are laying low, refusing to condemn the right of Jews to defend themselves against Hamas.

The world has not seen a threat like this to destabilize the democracies in many years. Anything less than an all-out effort to stop these extremists is bound to fail. We have the resources to win—there cannot be two winners in war—the question is whether we have the resolve.

The post There Can Be Only One Middle East Victor – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Beware The World’s Leading War-Monger And Terrorist Organization – OpEd

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There’s an old adage that goes: “You can judge a man by the company he keeps.”

If that’s the case, then applying it to nations, the world has to judge the US to be a truly wretched and repugnant country, and should be steering clear of it.

Look at the company we Americans are “keeping” these days:

  • In Ukraine, the US is backing a thuggish regime, installed through a bloody coup that overthrew a democratically elected government. That regime, since taking power, been using indescriminately shelling cities, and using fascist thugs re-classified as National Guardsmen to slaughter civilians and separatist rebels in the eastern part of the country. It is also becoming increasingly clear, as even the main English-language newspaper in Malaysia is reporting, that this thuggish regime based in Kiev was likely responsible for the deliberate downing of a Malaysian airline which killed all 283 passengers and crew (though the Obama administration continues to claim, on the basis of no evidence, that it was the separatists’ doing).
  • In Israel, we have a government and the ironically named Israeli Defense Force (IDF) slaughtering nearly 2000 Palestinians — over 400 of them children — trapped in the massive open-air prison and ghetto called Gaza. For over a month, the IDF has been relentlessly bombing, shelling and rolling tanks and bulldozers over the world’s most crowded prison camp and its 1.8 million people, deliberately shelling schools, hospitals, sewage treatment and water plants, and the only power generating facility, creating an incomprehensible humanitarian crisis. Israel is the single largest recipient of US financial and military aid, and most of the death and destruction in Gaza is the direct result of US-provided arms — weapons that include flesh-shredding anti-personnel shells and bombs, toxic gas and illegally used white phosphorus incendiary weapons. In fact, the US rushed more such deadly weapons to Israel as the IDF ran its stocks down in this one-sided assault on the walled-in Gaza-wide free-fire kill zone.
  • Over in Syria, where the US has been covertly supplying arms to an assortment of fanatic Islamic jihadists intent on overthrowing the dictator Bashar al Assad, we now know that it was those very jihadists, and not the Assad government, that cooly launched a deadly Sarin gas attack on a suburb of Damascus last year, killing hundreds. They did this monstrous crime in an attempt to throw blame on Assad and lure the US into joining the war against his regime — and came within a day of succeeding. More recently we learn that those jihadists, many of whom were trained by the CIA at secret camps in Jordan, have been stoning women in Syria to death for “adultery,” often forcing local villagers unwilling to participate in such horrors to watch this medieval atrocity.
  • Those same jihadis, trained by the US, are also sweeping across much of Iraq now, taking control of even large cities like Mosul, and slaughtering many of those in areas they conquer. There the US has been forced by this “blow-back” from its earlier support to turn on its trainees, much as it had to do a decade ago in Afghanistan, to begin bombing its wayward proteges to slow their advance. But let’s not forget that the people the US is now attacking in Iraq are the very people whom it earlier armed and trained to fight against Assad in neighboring Syria.

Of course, the US has many other vicious and unsavory “friends” all around the globe, in Venezuela, Cuba and Ecuador and Bolivia, Honduras and Colombia for example. But just judging by these three groups that it is backing — the Ukraine government, the Israeli government and the Islamic rebels in Syria — one can only conclude that the US is a truly global menace and leading source of international mayhem and terror.

The countries of Europe that are still part of the anachronistic, Cold War-era North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should listen to the growing voices of anger and alarm among their citizens who recognize that the United States, far from providing them with security, is stirring up conflict all around the globe (not to mention spying on, and probably extorting, their compromised leaders). Particularly in Ukraine, along Russia’s southern border, and in Palestine, these actions pose threats that could ultimately drag Europe into violent conflagrations that have not been seen since the end of World War II, nearly 70 years ago.

Israel’s ongoing slaughter of the Palestinians in Gaza, and its continued brutal occupation and usurpation of Palestinian land in the West Bank, will surely lead to a new explosion of violence and anger across the Middle East, which will almost certainly spill over into Europe. Meanwhile, one push too far — and we may be nearing that point — and the US and it’s “friends” in Kiev may trigger a Russian invasion of Ukraine in defense of the embattled Russian minority in that country. With over 20,000 heavily mechanized and well-trained Russian troops already on the border with Ukraine, and a huge modern airforce at the ready, the stage is set for such a cross-border action. If the US and its NATO “allies” were to attempt to block such a Russian action, World War III would be just one incident away.

The best action to take when someone is known to consort with thuggish or unsavory friends is to cut off contact with that person. Likewise, it would be wise for the nations of the world, and especially those currently linked to Washington through membership in NATO, to cut their ties with the world’s leading terror organization and perpetrator of violence: The United States of America.

 

The post Beware The World’s Leading War-Monger And Terrorist Organization – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Japan’s Growing Engagement In The Indo-Pacific – Analysis

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By Darshana M. Baruah

Japan’s recent decision to re-interpret its Article 9 of the constitution has marked a significant step in its defence policies. Of late, the Abe administration has been making efforts to re-engage with the Southeast Asian nations, renew its bilateral relationship with key actors in the region and play a bigger role in the evolving security architecture in the Indo-pacific. Beijing’s assertive behaviour in the South China Sea and East China Sea has to an extent provided the platform for Japan to seek closer ties with countries such as Vietnam, Philippines, Australia and India.

That maritime disputes are threatening regional security was clear at the conglomeration of the defence ministers’ and other senior government officials at the IISS Asia-Security Summit also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue. Held from 30 May-01 June 2014, the keynote speech at the forum was delivered by Shinzo Abe. Given the incidents that took place earlier in the month- of China placing a giant oil rig in Vietnamese waters- the issue of unilateral actions by countries and assertive behaviour in the South China Sea resounded throughout the dialogue. Tokyo’s mantra for the dialogue was “Japan for the rule of law, Asia for the rule of law, And the rule of law for all of us”- a theme that is largely seen to be violated by Beijing when it comes to the disputes.

On behalf of his country, Abe offered its support to the approaches undertaken by Philippines and Vietnam to resolve disputes indicating at the willingness to join hands against Beijing to come to a peaceful resolution of the conflicts. He stated that Japan ‘strongly supports the efforts by the Philippines calling for a resolution to the dispute in the South China Sea that is truly consistent with these three principles. We likewise support Viet Nam in its efforts to resolve issues through dialogue’. He also urged ASEAN to push through the Code of Conduct with China asking if it isn’t the “time to make a firm pledge to return to the spirit and the provisions of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea that all concerned countries in the Sea agreed to, and not to undertake unilateral actions associated with a permanent physical change?”. While Abe rarely made a direct comment at China, his speech revolved around aggressive and unilateral actions by China that now needs to be challenged. He also extended his support to the governments of the other disputing nations to unite against China. Abe’s remarks were strongly retorted by Chinese Lieutenant General Wang who did not shy away from pointing out that the “speeches of Mr. Abe and Mr. Hagel … [were] pre-coordinated. They supported and encouraged each other in provoking and challenging China, taking advantage of being the first to speak at the Dialogue.”

Since coming into power, Abe has shown signs of a greater re-engagement with Southeast Asia by strengthening bilateral ties with the ASEAN countries. Within the first 11 months of returning to office, Abe had toured all 10 ASEAN nations renewing its commitment towards maintaining stability in the region. Tokyo also pledged development aid to some of the countries and was on a mission to establish and re-new ties with the region. Japan’s efforts to re-connect with the region did not end with Abe’s tour-Japan was highly applauded for its assistance delivered to the Philippines in the aftermath of typhoon Haiyan, while Beijing was criticised immensely for its measly aid to Manila. Tokyo is also engaging with the navies of the region including India through exercises, aid and training. While Beijing is increasingly being seen as a threat, some nations in Southeast Asia are welcoming Japan’s support to protect and maintain their claims in the South China Sea. Although a key platform to maintain peace and security in the region, ASEAN has failed to project a unified view on the issue of maritime disputes. It is important to note that ASEAN is not a single geographical or political entity and the member nations bilateral ties with Beijing, restricts ASEAN’s ability to come to a conclusion.

Going beyond the ASEAN, Tokyo is also earnestly engaging with India and Australia on maritime issues and building closer ties with the two countries. During his visit in 2014 as the Chief Guest for India’s Republic Day, the two Prime Minister’s “reiterated the commitment of Japan and India to the freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes based on the principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)”. Noting the success of the existing maritime exercise between the two (JIMEX), New Delhi extended the invitation to Tokyo for the MALABAR Exercises in 2014. Japan and India are also increasing their defence and economic engagements resulting in stronger bilateral ties between the two. Soon after the Abe administration allowed the Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) to fight in collective self defence in foreign soil, Abe made a historic visit to Canberra-being the first Japanese to address the Australian Parliament. During his speech, Abe offered his condolences for the wartime horrors re-assuring that Tokyo will never “let the horrors of the past century’s history repeat themselves”. Abe also underlined the emergence of a new “special relationship” between Tokyo and Canberra noting that relationship between the two countries will only grow stronger. During the visit, Tokyo and Canberra signed the Japan-Australian Economic Partnership Agreement and as well as other defence and security agreements. The two countries have also reportedly signed a historic agreement to ‘jointly develop submarine technologies’.

Tokyo’s growing engagement with the countries of the region is a strong reflection of Japan’s desire to play a greater role in regional security. As Beijing continues to take assertive and aggressive actions in the region, Tokyo has found a way to renew its partnerships with the key actors of the region. While Japan has made an effort to reach out to the other nations of the region, it has equally received strong support from these nations in its desire to play a more constructive role in the Indo-Pacific. Japan’s growing engagement in the Indo-Pacific is also reflective of the country’s willingness to step outside of the US umbrella and forge stronger bilateral relationships. Continuing unilateral actions by Beijing in important Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCS) is a matter of concern carrying high risks of an armed conflict. If ASEAN collectively fails to provide the platform required in resolving the issues, it is inevitable that tri-lateral and bi-lateral agreements will emerge in the Indo-Pacific to secure SLOCS and to assure freedom of navigation.

(The writer is an Associate Editor of the ORF South China Sea Monitor)

Courtesy: ORF South China Sea Monitor

The post Japan’s Growing Engagement In The Indo-Pacific – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

We’re Human Fodder Caught In Crossfire Of Armed Groups And Armed Governments – OpEd

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By Dr Hakim

“Her father was killed in Helmand amidst fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan/U.S.-NATO forces,” said a relative about Gul Jumma, who looked down, shy and full of angst, sensing a future that’s not promising.

Gul Jumma, together with the Afghan Peace Volunteers, expressed their opposition to wars in this video. Gul Jumma holds up the sign for ‘Ukraine’, indicating ‘No to wars in Ukraine’. She understands what it is like to be caught in the crossfire, as happened to her father when he was killed in battle.

She and her surviving family members were displaced from her own village home in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan and now live in a squalid Internally Displaced Person’s ( IDP ) camp in Kabul. She is one of an estimated 600,000 IDPs in Afghanistan, whose flight is described as being ‘on the run without aid’.

So, at 10 years of age, Gul Jumma can already identify with the 100,000 Ukrainians who have been internally displaced in Ukraine,  the 730,000 Ukrainians who have fled to Russia and over 1,300 Ukrainians who have died since fighting began in April 2014.

Her hard experience has taught her to protect herself. She gets upset when the other street kids mistreat her in the literacy class. Sometimes, she snaps back at them.

When she was asked to draw a picture of her work in the streets, collecting scrap paper and plastic for her mother to use as fuel, she ignored her unpleasant work and drew herself wearing a colourful dress.

“I like wearing colorful dresses when I go to weddings or when my family and I are guests at the houses of our relatives and friends. My favorite fruit is the pomegranate.”

In a child-like way wiser than the complicated confusion of adults, Gul Jumma and the Afghan street kids see past the false differentiation between the ‘right and wrong and the good and evil’ sides of war.

They challenge us to be honest in giving an account to them, “Which warring side is good? Which killer is better?”

Like the Ukrainian child pictured below, they would say to any side or killer, whether the U.S.-backed Ukranian army or the Russian-backed rebels, or the U.S./NATO coalition-backed Afghan army or the Taliban/Afghan militia groups, “Don’t kill us!”

Ukraine boy don't kill us

Ukraine boy don’t kill us. Photo Dr Hakim

When Afghan youth, including little girls like Gul Jumma, hear people say that war is not the answer, like the anti-war Ukranian protesters are saying, they can empathize.  The Afghan Peace Volunteers swiftly agreed to express their solidarity with the ordinary people of Ukraine.

The United Nations reported in June this year that a record number of 50 million human beings worldwide have become refugees.

50 million persons, for the self-interests of fighting groups and governments, have become human beings seeking refuge from fellow human beings.

Whether they are Iraqi Christians, Iraqi Yazidis, Iraqi Muslims, Ukrainian free thinkers, Ukrainian Orthodox Christians and Catholics, Ukrainian Muslims, Palestinian Muslims, Israeli Jews, Syrian Muslims, Syrian Christians, Guatemalan Catholics etc., they are all refugees, and share the risks and crises all refugees face.

Some Palestinians, including children, who took refuge in UN schools in Gaza, were bombed and killed by the Israeli military nonetheless. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon called one such attack ‘a moral outrage and a criminal act.’

But, Mr Ban and the UN have been unable to do what the UN charter set out to do, to ‘remove the scourge of war from future generations’.

Waziri was an Afghan refugee in South Waziristan for 17 years. He and his family returned to live in Kabul in 2006. He told me the story of Pakistani Pashtun refugees who recently fled North Waziristan for relative safety in Khost Province of Afghanistan. “My friends and I mobilized a few community groups to provide oil, rice and sugar for about 610 refugee families in Khost,” Waziri shared.

Who did the Pakistani refugees flee from?  The Pakistani refugees fled from the Pakistan Army!

A Pakistani army commander had told the BBC that ‘the Taliban had already left North Waziristan before the offensive by the Pakistani army started.

So, the Pakistani army, backed by the U.S., stormed through North Waziristan, finding few if any Taliban, and forced fellow Pakistanis to flee from their own homes!

Waziri considers the military operation ‘a really big show’ at the expense of ordinary people. “I think the ISI and the Pakistani government themselves had informed the Taliban to leave! “said Waziri.

“The refugees I met in Khost lamented that they can’t go back to Waziristan now because they could be mistakenly killed by the Pakistani soldiers in the offensive. And, if the Taliban returned to the area after the offensive, the Taliban may kill them.”

Waziri ended off with this horrid story of our terrible human condition, “One of the refugees I met in Khost told me that as they were fleeing, his new-born baby was so weak from thirst that the baby died in his arms. Angry, disappointed and profoundly sad, the man carried the dead baby in his arms, and crying, he shouted at a Pakistani soldier, saying, ‘You might as well take the corpse of my baby and eat it. This is what you’re doing to us!”

These refugee stories show that the current leaders of the world, whether leaders of democratic or socialist governments or leaders of ‘extremist’ groups, have the same simplistic responses to wars, to the global refugee crises, and even to antiwar protesters : spying and surveillance, imprisonment, shoot and bombard, or Hillary Clinton’s slogan in Afghanistan to ‘fight, talk, build’!

The elite 1% of armed groups and armed governments are waging economic, environmental and military wars against the people! They, and perhaps we ourselves too, have lost our imagination and empathy.

But not Gul Jumma, not Waziri, not Ukrainian mothers who went on foot to a bridge carrying placards reading “Save our boys!”and not Israeli reservists who refuse to fight in Gaza. Certainly, not activists who go to jail for protesting elaborate secret government programs of targeted killings, drone murders, detentions without trial, torture and other clearly brutal acts.

Each of us should emulate them to protest against all wars, in solidarity with all refugees.

If there are 50 million refugees, there ought to at least be 50 million of us working together to divest and boycott, to stop military mobilization and conscription, to take the guilty elite to court, to participate in non-violent direct actions and protests and to provide all kinds of humanitarian assistance.

There ought to be at least 50 million of us working together to restore human dignity and freedom, including the building of small, self-governing, non-violent egalitarian communities, as practical alternatives to the status quo of a large, 1%-dominated, violent, unequal world.

‘No to Afghanistan in Ukraine. No to Ukraine in Afghanistan. No to wars in the world!’

We wish to live differently.

We no longer want anyone anywhere to be human fodder caught in the crossfire of armed groups and armed governments.

The post We’re Human Fodder Caught In Crossfire Of Armed Groups And Armed Governments – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Bank Of Albania Governor Under Pressure After Theft Probe

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By Lindita Komani

Civil society in Albania is calling for the Bank of Albania governor to resign after it was revealed that bank employees stole more than $7 million over a four-year period.

The bank’s commission on money circulation and inventory discovered the theft and informed the country’s prosecutor office in late July.

The police have arrested 10 bank employees so far, including a department director, and are conducting an investigation.

The bank promptly replaced the unit heads at the money issuing department and two controllers at the security and protection department. It also announced it has appointed a new director.

But civil society organised protests in front of Bank of Albania offices in Tirana demanding bank governor Ardian Fullani’s resignation.

Civil society representatives said the theft has shown the corruption in the bank and has weakened trust in the country’s most senior banking office holder. “People are demanding the governor’s resignation or his being discharged by parliament. Furthermore, they ask that a parliamentary commission investigate theft and abuse in this institution,” Zirkov Disha, protest organiser, told SETimes.

Others said that the theft at the heart of the country’s premier financial institution is a crippling demonstration of corruption.

“Fullani established a banking law system in which the consumer could never protect himself against private banks. This has cost Albanian citizens billions and has caused the ruination of their well-being and life,” Altin Goxhaj, director of the Consumer Protection Office, an NGO in Tirana, told SETimes.

Parliament appoints the bank’s governor based on a recommendation by the country’s president. Fullani began a term of seven years in 2011.

The government said it wants to reassure citizens that it is carefully following the investigation.

“The government deems as equally important both the need for an exemplary punishment of the culprits, and exemplary positioning of the Bank of Albania upfront by respecting its independence,” the government said in a statement on August 6th.

The Albanian Association of Banks issued a statement last week to reassure the public that financial flows are not affected.

“Despite the grave incident, the entire financial system has undertaken the necessary measures to ensure a normal liquidity supply to the inter-bank market, while the commercial banks are constantly committed to comply strictly with the regulatory framework and take the necessary measures for the accomplishment of security and safety functions,” it said.

However, civil society representatives said the issue is much more than a technical monetary matter and if the governor does not resign or is not removed, they will step up protests.

“Albanian citizens have to be treated with dignity by the political class and the civil servants who get paid with taxes. Albanian citizens cannot be robbed infinitely,” Disha said.

The post Bank Of Albania Governor Under Pressure After Theft Probe appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Israel Violates Truce, Fires At Gaza Fishermen

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Israeli warships on Tuesday opened fire at fishermen off the coast of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, in an apparent violation of an agreed-upon three-day ceasefire, a union official said.

Nizar Ayyash, spokesman for Gaza’s fishermen union, told Ma’an that a number of Palestinian fishermen were near the shore when Israeli forces shot at them with machine guns.

No injuries were reported.

Ayyash said Israeli naval forces had been preventing fishermen from fishing in the area, even within the “authorized fishing zone.”

An Israeli army spokeswoman did not immediately return calls seeking comment.

A 72-hour ceasefire between Israeli forces and Palestinian factions was set in place at midnight Monday.

Israeli forces frequently shoot at Gazan fisherman if they stray further than three nautical miles from the shore.

Palestinian factions have demanded that Israel lighten restrictions on fishermen as a part of a lasting agreement to end hostilities in Gaza.

Israel’s month-long offensive on Gaza has left nearly 2,000 Palestinians dead, the vast majority of them civilians, in addition to 67 people on the Israeli side, most of them soldiers.

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Iraq: Bishop Of Mosul On Mountain With Those Who Are Fleeing

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“They are arriving in thousands, in cars and on foot, in need of everything and in desperate search of a safe place”, said Monsignor Amel Shimon Nona, Chaldean Bishop of Mosul, contacted by MISNA in a Christian village in the extreme north of Iraq, where people are being sheltered in the homes, the school and Catechism hall.

Bishop Nona is concluding a visit in the governorate of Dahuk, on the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan that take to Turkey. “They are areas that appear safer in respect to the Ninive Plain. For this reason, thousands of Christians and also Yazidi have fled here”, explained the Bishop.

Monsignor Nona spoke to MISNA from Fish Khabor, a village situated around 80km from the city of Mosul, capital on the Ninive province seized in June by the Sunni militants of the Islamic State. The advance of the Islamist fighters is causing a mass flight of Christians, Yazidi and other minorities of Iraq’s historical ethnic-religious mosaic.

“The Islamic State is a threat to these communities. Let’s truly hope that the US bombings that began last week are able to halt the advance”, continued the Bishop. A hope shared by hundreds of Yazidi, who also today passed through Fish Khabor headed to Erbil, capital of the autonomous region of Kurdistan. “They are excluded even among the displaced: with no place to sleep, they rest along the roads. We are trying to assist them as much as possible in our villages”, added Monsignor Nona.

It is an emergency that will last long, despite the US airstrikes in defence of its allies (and oil wells) of Kurdistan, and stressed Mosul’s Bishop, despite the latest political developments that yesterday led to the nomination of a new prime minister. In regard to the new Premier, the Shiite Haider al Abadi, who obtained support from Iran after the US, Monsignor Nona made no comment. “Let’s hope that a new government can contribute toward peace”, he said, adding bitterly that “the Iraqis don’t trust politicians anymore”.

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Afghanistan After 2014 Elections: US As A Strategic Partner? – Analysis

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The aftermath of the Afghan 2014 presidential election confirms two problems of Afghanistan today. Firstly, democracy is at its nascent stage and elections are not without problems. Secondly, Afghanistan is still a fragile country and needs continued engagement of the international community.

By Halimullah Kousary

AFTER THREE presidential elections since 2001, Afghanistan is still a fragile state. Afghans and the international community hailed the most recent April 2014 election as a national voice against the militants and a manifestation of political maturity among the Afghan powerbrokers. But one of the two candidates boycotted the election process, which led to weeks-long standoff on the election and a threat of forming a parallel government. This indicates that Afghanistan is still suffering from political instability and serious political divisions.

After 13 years in power, President Hamid Karzai’s inability to figure out a solution to resolve election standoffs that are acceptable to the contending parties forced the intervention of the United States. In the latest case, Secretary of State John Kerry flew to Kabul and forged a commitment from both the candidates to form a government of national unity.

Afghanistan-US Strategic Partnership

Kerry urged a 100 percent audit of the votes in the presence of international observers. The audit process is not without issues but the American role shored up the need for a partnership with the US. It also shows that despite winding down its mission, the US still wields influence with the Afghan government and powerbrokers because Afghanistan receives billions of dollars in US aid.

In November 2013, President Karzai convened the Afghan Traditional Assembly, where around 2500 religious scholars, tribal leaders and government officials from across the country voiced support for the strategic partnership with the US.

President Karzai, however, held back his endorsement and left the partnership to be decided upon by his successor. This brought up a strong reaction from both the US and segments of Afghan society while Washington warned that refusal to approve the partnership would mean zero troop presence from all the NATO countries in Afghanistan.

President Karzai argued that the strategic partnership with the US without negotiation with the Taliban would not succeed in ending the war in Afghanistan. He even remarked that the war in Afghanistan is a battle over Afghanistan’s geostrategic position. This means the US objective of denying terrorists sanctuaries in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is becoming secondary to its objectives of tackling the threat of an emerging China and a re-assertive Russia in the broader region.

The US may well have such a broader objective. But in the meantime, what is crucial to Afghanistan is that without continued engagement of the international community, it is not yet ready to stand on its feet politically, militarily and economically. The country’s political fragility and the uncooperative neighbourhood necessitate a strong strategic partner. Such a partnership can be part and parcel of efforts to hold the country together and avert a repeat of the 1992 crisis as a result of the non-involvement in the peace process by the Taliban.

Uncooperative neighbourhood

For the Taliban strategic partnership with the US means continued fighting in the country. Their leader Mullah Mohammad Omar in his Eid message released in late July 2014 called on the candidates not to endorse the partnership and said that the war in Afghanistan would end when all the foreign troops pull out. But reservations prevail that the Taliban and their external backers may not cease violence even after a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.

This is because the Taliban’s fight during last 13 years in Afghanistan centred on two agendas – one to defend the country against foreign invasion and the other to re-instate the Islamic Emirate there. The latter is an equivocal no to the current government system and the Afghan constitution, which suggests the possibility of continued fighting by the Taliban even after the complete withdrawal of foreign troops.

Afghanistan also suffers from an uncooperative neighbourhood. In 2013 Pakistan said it charted a policy of “no interference and no favourites” towards Afghanistan but its apparent indifference to the presence of the Afghan Taliban on its soil proved the policy to be only rhetoric. Pakistani military is now positioned across the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) to only dismantle the anti-Pakistan militants.

The ongoing operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) is an indicator of such a strategy; there is as yet no sign of the Haqqani Network being targeted in NWA. There have even been speculation that the Haqqani Network was allowed to evacuate from NWA prior to the launch of the operation and operate from Kurram Agency of FATA- which remains largely safe from the US drone attacks. The intensity of the ongoing spring offensive “Khaibar” launched by the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network in Afghanistan also shows the absence of any pressure on both these entities in Pakistan. These were the first operations of such a scale by the Taliban and the Haqqani Network since 2010 and the Afghan government claimed that Pakistani military and intelligence were also involved.

Two options

In such a scenario where the Taliban seems determined to sabotage the country’s stability with continued support from Pakistan and where the goal is to re-instate the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, there are only two options open to the next Afghan government. One is to proceed with the strategic partnership with the US and face the belligerent Taliban but with the potential to gradually neutralise them. Afghans in general do not want the Islamic Emirate and thus the future government must deliver to the people by closing the chasm with the public in the past 13 years.

The second is to negate the strategic partnership and risk deterioration in the current political landscape as the 2014 election has shown. This option is clearly not feasible as it will lead to the military and economic dysfunction of the state. The West has already made it clear that no strategic partnership with the US means no troop presence from any country and that the responsibility for the consequences of zero troop presence lies with the Afghan government.

Mr Abe will nevertheless need to pay greater heed to political undercurrents and public sentiment in the coming months as the legislation for collective self-defence is further debated, in effect placing limits on his ambitions to steer Japan to become a country with a more “normal” military.

Halimullah Kousary currently serves as Deputy Head of Research with Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies (CAPS), Kabul. He was formerly an Associate Research Fellow with S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

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Bosnia And Herzegovina And XXI Century: I Am Going Into The Night – Essay

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There are a lot of writing reports in media from Bosnia and Herzegovina (as somebody stated of a so-called “Bosniak (Muslim)”, so called “Serbian” and so called “Croatian” press) about what kind of “bright” future is in front of us within next ten years.

At the same time, the power of the written word cannot penetrate at all into the minds of the righteous people whom, through their voting decisions create assumptions of that “bright” future. Strikes; shamelessly, completely non-controlled, untaxed enrichment; force of vital national interest[1]; the cry of the population of war veterans; more than 560,000 of unemployed[2] and poverty on a global scale is the “bright” future of Bosnia and Herzegovina in which we live today.

And what?!

I cannot explain what we have sinned so much that this truly “crumpled” present future happens to us.

I remember my father in the seventies and until the mid-eighties of the past century. For me was only important at the time to “figure out how to catch” some “chick” in High school and/or University, and for him … Being forty years old he had a decent income highly educated professor with which he could afford to have delicious holidays in France, a house by the sea and lavish meals … Imagine, he was not a member of the Communist Party, and he was the Director of High school – Geodesic technical school in Sarajevo, professor, lecturer … Really, why did they lie to us a little later, in 1990 that we will see the light at the end of the tunnel through the arrival of the so-called “democracy“ and with departure of “dictatorship of the proletariat“?

Myself, today, in 2014, in my fifties, I repeat, in my fifties, have what I have … I’m going to my father’s house at the sea coast. In France I am going only when someone calls me at his/her expense. Table with meals? If I may call it – poor with enrichment of basic vitamins …. Excuse me, yes, I am rich, because I am going to my father’s house at the sea coast in another country. Croatia. What was once, together with Bosnia and Herzegovina, part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. And it will never be. Thanks to whom? Unfortunately, also thanks to me, like millions of others who still laments over the ashes of the former state. My advantage is that I was writing, as opposed to “those millions”, even in the 1990s, within the pages of the first private newspaper in SRBiH titled ”POTEZ”[3] , a people’s newspaper from the city of Bugojno, of which I was a co-owner: “… Gentlemen, former comrades, I doubt you will change anything … “. Today, twenty-four years later I added just one sentence: “I made a mistake, and you took from me twenty-four years of my life …”

Is not the desire of each one of us to reach our own father making his own memories of his rich past? Is not the desire to do better? Is not the desire to live better?

Very much so, but within the area of former Yugoslavia, it will remain only a desirable wish. Of course, except to the selected ones (Who mentioned 93 billionaires in BiH today?). And then someone will say that I’m a dark Yugo- nostalgic. No, I am Human-nostalgic. If that means living better for all of us, then yes, I am, but please, do not talk to me, hidden under the cloak of nationalism[4] shaded with tectonic manipulation of everyday life, about better life in a country where that word “better“ slowly, but surely, fading from the vocabulary of everyday dreaming visions.

After all, you should vote, you – the livestock!

And shut up!

If you do not obey, you will not even eat!

Becoming a so called “human“.

Notes:
[1] About House of Peoples of Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Protection of the vital national Interest

A proposed decision of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH in the House of Peoples can be declared destructive to the vital national interest of the Bosniak, Croat, or Serb people by a majority votes from the Bosniak, Croat or Serb delegates. Such a proposed decision has to be approved by the House of Peoples by a majority of Bosniak, Croat, and Serb delegates who are present and voting.

In case the majority of Bosniak, Croat or Serb delegates object to an invocation of the vital national interest, the Speaker of the House of Peoples will immediately convene a Joint Commission consisting of three delegates, each elected among Bosniak, Croat, and Serb delegates, in order to resolve the issue. If the Commission fails to resolve the issue within five days, the case will be transferred to the BiH Constitutional Court which will review the procedural correctness of the matter, under emergency procedure.
Info: https://www.parlament.ba/sadrzaj/domovi/dom_naroda/default.aspx?id=20440&langTag=en-US&pril=b

[2] 44 % of the population who are in age of work and increase of 128.868 unemployed people comparing with 1999. Info: http://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih/sumorna-statistika-u-bih-za-15-godina-130000-nezaposlenih-vise

[3] “STROKE”

[4] Read “schauvinism”

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75 Percent Of Syria Chemical Materials Reported Destroyed

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By Cheryl Pellerin

Specialists on the U.S. container ship M/V Cape Ray continue their work in the Mediterranean Sea, neutralizing chemical materials from Syria and contributing to what the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, or OPCW, on August 7 confirmed as the destruction of 74.2 percent of Syria’s chemical stockpile.

U.S. military and civilian specialists aboard the ship began using the field deployable hydrolysis system to neutralize Syrian chemical materials on July 7, Director of Pentagon Press Operations Army Col. Steve Warren told reporters at the time, anticipating that it would take about 60 days to complete the job.

On August 5 at the Aberdeen Proving Ground-Edgewood Team CBRNE capabilities showcase, Adam Baker, a chemical engineer and project manager with the U.S. Army Edgewood Chemical Biological Center, detailed the hard work that went into turning a land-based hydrolysis system into a field-deployable system in just five months.

“We had a gap in capabilities for a system that was transportable, that could be operated out of a remote location and that would [process] bulk liquid agent at high throughputs.”

The system had to be able to be transported to a remote site and set up and be sufficient with a supply of reagents and diesel fuel, Baker explained.

The project was given the go-ahead in February 2013. In November 2013, he said, “That’s when they made the decision to start putting it on the Cape Ray.”

The timeline was short, Baker said, and they couldn’t start from scratch with a new system, so they used a process from the former Aberdeen Chemical Demilitarization Facility, or ABCDF, that had been used a decade ago to neutralize 1,700 tons of mustard – part of the destruction of the United States’ own chemical stockpile.

Baker said the engineers compressed that process into transportable, standardized shipping containers. They had two titanium reactors they could use for the Cape Ray that made it easier for rapid deployment of the two systems that are now on the ship.

One of the Cape Ray’s most critical design factors for the system, Baker said, “was that everything we needed had to go on that ship. Instead of having trucks come in every day and bring the reagent and trucks go out every day with your waste, all of those containers had to go on the ship.”

At least 269 of the standardized shipping containers are on the ship, holding everything the specialists and crew need and everything the hydrolysis process needs and then creates. Nothing is dumped from the ship.

The hydrolysis system essentially mixes the chemicals with water and sodium hypochlorite bleach and produces a low-level waste that will be treated to reduce acidity and then stored in containers on the ship until they’re delivered to commercial waste-treatment facilities.

Baker said the original chemical cargo from Syria consisted of about 600 tons of methylphosphonyl difluoride, usually called DF, the main precursor of sarin and other nerve agents, and 20 tons of mustard, a blister agent.

Today, a Pentagon spokeswoman confirmed that the Cape Ray crew now has neutralized 100 percent of the DF and is beginning to work on the mustard.

When the Cape Ray’s mission is complete, Baker said, officials in the Office of the Joint Program Manager for Elimination will decide on the long-term plan for the field-deployable hydrolysis capability.

“I know they want to keep it as equipment that can be used. They want to sustain it,” he added, “but they have to work out the funding and that’s a work in progress.”

The system is designed to process bulk liquid agent, the chemical engineer said, so other countries that have such stockpiles could find the field-deployable hydrolysis technology useful.

“When we designed it, we made sure to put as much flexibility into the system as we could,” Baker explained.

“We had a recipe for how we processed mustard and a recipe for how we processed DF, but you could use recipes for a lot of different agents,” he added, “so it’s just a matter of what the agents are, going back to the bench chemistry, figuring out how they need to be mixed and seeing how best to do that in this system.”

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Spain Backs Appointment Of New Iraqi Prime Minister

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The Spanish government expressed Tuesday its support to the President of Iraq in the constitutional task of proceeding to form a new government.

In this regard, the Spanish Government said it welcomes “with satisfaction the appointment of Dr. Haider Al-Abadi as candidate for prime minister as a positive step towards forming a national unity government that is essential for moving towards stability, reconstruction and the democratic consolidation of Iraq.”

Faced with a serious humanitarian situation in the country, in particular as a result of the recent attacks carried out in the north-west by the militias of the so-called Islamic State (IS), Spain reiterates its support for the people and authorities of Iraq in their task of restoring peace and stability, and of protecting the civilian population as it falls victim to this sectarian violence, the Spanish government said.

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Showdown Looms As Red Cross Shuns Russian Aid Convoy

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(EurActiv) — A Russian aid cavalcade of 280 trucks destined for eastern Ukraine may be blocked at the border, as it is not being accompanied by any staff from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), a core demand of the Kiev government.

With Ukraine reporting 45,000 massed Russian troops on its border, NATO has cited a “high probability” that Moscow could intervene militarily in the country’s east, where Kiev’s forces are encircling pro-Russian separatists.

Western officials fear that the aid convoy, expected to arrive in Ukraine on August 14 or 15, could be a cloak for a military action.

“We must be extremely careful because this could be a cover for the Russians to install themselves near Lugansk and Donetsk and put us before a done deed,” the French foreign minister Laurent Fabius told France Info radio today (12 August).

“This (convoy) is only possible, only justifiable, if the Red Cross authorises it,” he added.

The Ukrainian Security Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko also said that, to be admitted, any aid delivery from Moscow would need to pass through a government-controlled border post, and be accompanied by ICRC officials.

But Anastasia Isyuk, a spokeswoman for the Red Cross in Geneva, told EurActiv that, although negotiations with Moscow were ongoing, the cavalcade did not yet have the ICRC’s blessing.

“Right now there are no Red Cross staff accompanying this convoy,” Isyuk said. “We are ready to facilitate aid deliveries in a humanitarian manner providing practical details are codified and we receive security guarantees from both sides.”

The ICRC has said that its participation in the aid mission would depend on security guarantees, access to vehicle manifests, and respect for its neutrality.

That position was given a boost by the EU’s international cooperation, humanitarian aid and civil protection commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva, speaking in Brussels today.

Neutral, impartial, independent

The Russian aid “must be delivered in a way that strictly and solely assists affected populations,” she told journalists. “It always has to be done in accordance with principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence. No political or other objectives must be pursued.”

Another EU official told EurActiv that “we have to stress how important it is that the international aid organisations and above all the Red Cross are in the driving seat in implementing this.”

According to Isyuk, the ICRC yesterday requested information about the types of assistance being delivered from the Russian authorities, such as the volume of items, transportation arrangements, and storage details.

The response from Moscow had been “positive,” she said, but not enough to bring the organisation on board.

“Our work is neutral, impartial and independent and this is a precondition for any operation that the ICRC can participate in,” she added.

Shortages

Fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine since mid-April has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom have fled to Russia.

Thousands more inside Ukraine are thought to be short of water, electricity and medical aid due to the fighting. US President Barack Obama said that any Russian intervention without Kiev’s consent would be unacceptable and violate international law.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also warned on Monday “against any unilateral military actions in Ukraine, under any pretext, including humanitarian”.

More than 1,500 people are thought to have been killed including government forces, rebels and civilians in the four months since the separatists seized territory in the east and Kiev launched its crackdown.

The European Commission yesterday announced an additional €2.5 million of humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected people in Ukraine.

“I call on all sides of this conflict to facilitate the work of humanitarian organisations and allow for the provision of assistance to the civilian population in need, irrespective of who and where they are,” Georgieva said.
Arthur Neslen

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A Pragmatic Call For Resolving Ukrainian Crisis – Analysis

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By Özdem Sanberk & Güner Özkan

The downing of the Malaysian passenger airline in Ukrainian airspace indicates the very stark reality that if the Ukrainian conflict persists, it will have huge implications for both civilians and non-civilians. Embargoes imposed by the Western states on Russia are now intensifying with a new round of sanctions. Yet, their full impacts remain to be seen as Russia has so far not backed down from supporting pro-Russian rebels. Despite Western sanctions and ongoing talks between the sides, the Ukrainian conflict continues to elude the hopes of seeing reduced tension on the ground, thereby removing any possibility to resolve the conflict any time soon. At this point in time, proposals put forward by the European Leadership Network (ELN), a non-governmental body comprised of think-tanks from the UK, Russia, Turkey and Poland, in its 31 July Position Paper on the events in Ukraine appear to offer strongly tenable guidelines first for managing the crisis and then for resolving it.

De-escalating the crisis in Ukraine

When regarding the current military situation and civilian losses, as well as the economic and political costs of the conflict, de-escalation of the Ukrainian crisis requires nothing but a cooperative position by all sides. The ELN adopts this cooperative approach in its latest proposals. It firstly concentrates on urging the conflicting parties to take all necessary measures in not repeating another severe mistake as seen in the example of the Malaysian airline disaster. In this way, the ELN tries to caution all political and military actors against further deepening and escalating the conflict in Ukraine. This is of great importance not only to prevent a repetition of tragedies similar to those seen recently, but also to warn the West, Russia, the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists of the dangers of deepening the conflict.

Another timely suggestion is to keep the military personnel on the ground under full control within the line of command and control chain. After all, these military personnel and rebels hold the weapons, and if they are not strictly controlled, they could be ready to fire at will, thus increasing the likelihood of an occurrence that would cause even greater collision between the West and Russia. Therefore, it is wise to call increased military to military contacts through which such an eventual mistake could be prevented.

Ways for the conflicting parties to successfully take these steps is laid out in a third proposal that urges the actors inside and outside of Ukraine to engage in serious dialogue. There are indeed plenty such mechanisms that could initiate and facilitate a new round of dialogue and confidence building measures between the West and Russia, as within the framework of the NATO-Russia council. Even Turkey, which is in the same geographical, economic, political and security environment, can be very influential in the establishment of that dialogue seeing that it has maintained a strategic partnership with Russia, has a long-standing security alliance with the West and prospective EU membership. Indeed, the resolution of the conflict itself can also be achieved by the creating an active dialogue between the opposing domestic and external actors in the Ukrainian crisis.

Quelling the Ukrainian conflict

As the ELN also recognizes in its Position Paper, a political disagreement lies at the heart of the current confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis. Essentially, Russia and the West disagree on each other’s interpretations of national sovereignty/territorial integrity and the right to interfere/right to secede. As such, in addition to the current crises in Ukraine and Syria, other potential conflict zones of Moldova (Transdiniester), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Azerbaijan (Nagorno Karabakh) have continued to carry risks of spawning new bloodshed in Greater Europe. In fact, such an escalation is happening already e.g in the recent heavy fighting in the line of contact in the Nagorno Karabakh region. This resulted in the killing of at least 20 soldiers on both sides. Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers engaged in a heavy fighting which is widely believed to have been caused by the Armenian government’s welcoming of the Russian annexation of Crimea in the context of self-determination and its propagation of an identical model for the break-away region of Nagorno Karabakh. That is why the actors in the Ukrainian conflict should use every official and unofficial channel to promote common ground in the understanding of sovereignty, territorial integrity, secession and interference.

The economic dimension of the Ukrainian crisis is the second issue. If the West and Russia manage to further cooperate in the economic field, this may be a cure rather than, as currently seen, a curse for all parties in the Ukrainian crisis. Indeed, the economies of the countries in Greater Europe, to a varying degree, display an interdependent character. Energy and other trade relations between Europe, Russia and Turkey in Greater Europe should no longer be used as a political tool to create dependency. Neither should Ukraine be considered as a zero sum game in the economic rivalry between the West and Russia, seen as the EU versus the Eurasian Economic Union. The Ukrainian economy can be perfectly well accommodated within both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, as far as the already existing and potential economic transactions and human mobilizations between countries located to the east, west and south of Ukraine are concerned. This indeed proves that there has already been a very active economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok that has greatly contributed to the well-being of the countries located in this vast region. Ukraine is positioned at the heart of this area and thus can serve as a bridge of unification rather than a source of diversification in Greater Europe.

The humanitarian/human rights dimension of a conflict can perhaps sear long lasting negative imprints on the memories of individuals and states involved. Economic losses may be recovered, but not the harm caused by violations of human and minority rights. Especially those vulnerable ethnic groups and the traumas they experienced may likely persist a source of inter-communal friction and instability. The Ukrainian government and pro-Russia supporters in eastern Ukraine need to work tirelessly to reconcile and win the hearts and minds of one another. Also, the Russian annexation of Crimea does not and should not absolve the Russian government from its international legal responsibilities to safeguard the fundamental rights of minorities in the region. Especially the Crimean Tatars, who are still traumatized by the deportation of their entire nation by Stalin in 1944, are the most vulnerable ethnic group. Russia’s seizure of Crimea has not assuaged their concerns at all. Quite the contrary, to break the will of the Tatar people in their resistance to Russian annexation, Russia introduced new legal measures in Crimea to bar the Tatar community leader, Mustafa Cemil Kırımoglu, from entering the region for five years, and is threatening to dissolve the only representative organ of Crimean Tatars, the Mejlis, and prosecute its leader, Rıfat Cubarov, on charges of extremism.

In conclusion, the Ukrainian crisis is a kind of problem that can only be resolved by firstly managing the conflict. It is only then that there would be a window of opportunity to resolve the problem once and for all. In its Position Paper the ELN explains how and why this path is to be followed. It is now up to all actors involved in the crisis to embrace these proposals for the sake of a more peaceful, secure and prosperous Greater Europe.

About the authors:
Ambassador (Ret.) Özdem Sanberk, President of International Strategic Research Organisation (USAK)

Dr. Güner Özkan, European Leadership Network (ELN) Project Coordinator at USAK

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Lebanon: Hariri’s Return Strengthens Moderates But Incomplete Without Rushing Arms To LAF – Analysis

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By Riad Kahwaji

“He is back,” was what most Lebanese said with a sigh of relief about the sudden return of Saad Hariri, former prime minister and leader of the largest parliamentary block. Even his arch enemies the Shiite Parties Hizbullah and Amal, have welcomed his return even though they were largely behind the downfall of the government he headed in December 2010, and his subsequent self-exile due to security threats to his life by Syrian and Iranian-backed groups. Hariri’s opponents discovered after three years that the substitute for his moderate policies would be the rise of extremist Muslim Sunni groups in Lebanon associated with terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This fact became very clear in the recent showdown between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Syrian rebel armed groups in the town of Arsal on the Syrian borders north-east of Lebanon.

A few thousand gunmen from ISIS and the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra Front carried out a surprise attack on LAF positions around Arsal, killing 15 Lebanese troops and capturing some 20 others. The LAF regained the momentum a couple of days later and recaptured its lost positions. However, what caused concern to many Lebanese officials was that sectarian tensions rose in the country between Sunni and Shiites. The Shiite Hizbullah has been sending fighters into Syria to assist the Syrian regime in its fights against Syrian rebels. The Lebanese authorities have not done anything to stop Hizbullah fighters crossing the borders back and forth into Syria. This has frustrated the mostly moderate Lebanese Sunni community who first saw their Lebanese political leadership weaken with the ouster of Hariri and then felt unable to do much to help the Syrian Sunni rebels. This political vacuum made room for Sunni extremist clerics to appear on the Lebanese political scene and begin influencing opinions of few Lebanese Sunni communities who grew more sympathetic to Syria rebels, even the extremist ones. In the last battles in Arsal it was not the Sunni politicians who were out there trying to defuse the situation in the Sunni town. Instead, some Sunni clerics grouped in the so-called Muslim Scholars Association headed the mediations with the Syrian armed groups that led to their withdrawal from Arsal into Syria.

The Arsal incident was only the latest episode in a series of events that heightened sectarian tension in Lebanon. A few months ago, several Shiites neighborhoods in Lebanon witnessed a wave of suicide bombings by extremists, Lebanese and Arabs associated with ISIS and Al Nusra Front. Also the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon was the scene of clashes between Sunni gunmen and an Alawite group associated with Hizbullah and the Syrian regime. These clashes ended with the fleeing of the Alawite’s group commander and the deployment of Lebanese troops in the areas of fighting. Moreover, the weakening of Lebanese Sunni political leadership was in turn undermining the Sunni spiritual leadership that was preparing for the election of a new Grand Mufti. Hence, in the midst of all this tension and chaos Hariri’s return became a must to all players in Lebanon.

Hariri did not return empty-handed. He came back carrying a one-billion-dollar donation from Saudi Arabia to LAF and security agencies, in a move that underlined the difference between Riyadh’s and Tehran’s policies towards Lebanon. While Iran supplies Hizbullah with weapons, which weakens the Lebanese central government, Saudi Arabia is providing funds to LAF to better arm itself to counter threats posed by terrorist groups and strengthen the state. Riyadh announced last April its intention to fund a 3-billion-dollar procurement plan between Lebanon and France to equip the LAF with variety of weapons and defense systems. Hariri repeatedly declared in his speeches over the past few days that he returned to lead the moderate Muslims.

Significantly, Hariri’s presence in Lebanon brought about swift solutions to problems that were facing the Sunni community. A new moderate Grand Mufti was elected within 48 hours from his return. He hosted a luncheon that brought together all major Sunni leaders including former Prime Minister Najib Mikati who turned against Hariri in 2011 and headed the government that was backed by Hizbullah and other pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian parties in Lebanon. This asserted Hariri as the undisputed leader of the Sunnis in Lebanon and reaffirmed him as a national leader.

However, Lebanon’s problems are far from over. The country is still without a president awaiting an agreement between the Lebanese political parties on a candidate. The parliament’s term is up late next September and there is uncertainty on whether general elections could be held in the country in the current political and security environment. Acute economic hardships have hit the country hard on all levels. The war in Syria is still raging without control and with the possibility of spillover high due to continued Hizbullah’s involvement in the war there. Hizbullah’s intervention in the Syrian war is increasing extremism within parts of the impoverished Sunni neighborhoods in northern and eastern Lebanon, especially the border towns and villages. Lebanese security sources have detected an increased level of support for Syrian extremist groups within some communities along the borders. They are worried that this phenomenon could grow due to Hizbullah’s continued intervention in the Syrian civil war.

Therefore, even though Hariri’s return has given a boost to the moderate Sunni community and raised the morale of the pro-Western parties in the country, it is still not enough to help Lebanon confront the growing threat of groups like ISIS and Al Nusra Front. Hariri could help guide his party and the government in developing the poor Sunni neighborhoods and keep them off limits to the influence of extremist groups. However, the LAF needs better advanced weapons and defense systems to deal with highly professional and well-armed Islamist fighters like the ones they confronted in Arsal.

According to a senior Lebanese military official, the LAF is in bad need to close air support with effective precision weapons. “The only single asset the LAF possessed that could provide good reconnaissance with efficient air support was the one Cessna Caravan aircraft armed with Hellfire rockets,” said the military official. He noted that the US refused to make the second Cessna it gave the LAF Hellfire-capable. “We hope the US would speed up the delivery of 12 AT-6 close air support planes that it had promised the LAF,” the official added. He added that the LAF could not use the light Gazelle helicopter gunships because they were not armed with any precision weapons and could be shot down easily by the terrorists’ heavy weapons. “We had to be creative once again and go to our Air Force engineers who modified the Puma helicopters and armed them with 30-mm guns and 70-mm rocket launchers, and also proved effective in the battles in Arsal,” he said. But this still was not enough. The LAF needs better firepower and C4ISR assets. “The LAF’s aging T-55 (Russian) tanks broke down during the battle. Their guns misfired and engines died, which made the LAF heavily reliable on the only 10 M-60 tanks the US supplied the LAF with several years ago plus some M-48 tanks that are still operational. “We hope the US and the West would treat the LAF the same way it is treating the Iraqi Army which is fighting the same enemy: ISIS,” the official said. “We hope the U.S., France and other powers would expedite the sale and delivery of much needed precision weapons, attack aircrafts and defense systems to help the LAF which is now on the front line of defense against terrorism.” He noted that the Arsal battel was only “round one with ISIS” and it is only a matter of time before “round two starts.”

Clearly, Hariri’s return comes at a critical juncture in Lebanon’s domestic political scene as well as the requirements need to boost LAF’s capabilities. The next months should see Hariri advance his agenda by supporting LAF, plus making agreements with most of Lebanon’s faction, and perhaps finding himself again as Lebanese Prime Minister.

Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA

The post Lebanon: Hariri’s Return Strengthens Moderates But Incomplete Without Rushing Arms To LAF – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

South Africa To Increase Measures Against Rhino Poaching

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By More Matshediso

Pretoria – Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa says South Africa will build on its robust measures to curb the incidence of rhino poaching within its borders.

Addressing a media briefing on the outcomes of the 2013 rhino census conducted in the Kruger National Park (KNP), the Minister said SA would continue to push strategies to stabilise the rhino population.

“During the latest survey in 2013, conducted by SANParks, the rhino population survey showed that between 8 400 and 9 600 white rhinos are presently living in the Kruger National Park,” said the Minister.

SANParks conducts periodic population surveys. As of 2012, South Africa’s rhino population was estimated at 21 000.

South Africa is home to 82% of Africa’s rhino – both black and white – 93% of Africa’s white rhino and 39% of Africa’s black rhino.

Minister Molewa said government is cognisant of the fact that rhino poaching is a multibillion dollar worldwide illicit trade. This, she said, was the reason they would put in more emphasis on the Integrated Strategic Management approach to save rhinos from poachers.

“… That is why we will continue to strengthen holistic and integrated interventions and explore new innovative options to ensure the long-term survival of the species,” Minister Molewa said.

The approach is aimed at reducing the threat to rhinos and their biological management. Minister Molewa said rhino population in the Kruger National Park has stabilised. The translocation of 1 450 rhino from the KNP between 1997 and 2013 has contributed to the rhino population growth in the country.

“Poaching, natural deaths and the translocation of rhino from the Kruger National park presently match that of rhino births,” she said.

Minister Molewa said South Africa will continue to work with other countries to curb poaching.

She added that forensic technology, including DNA analysis, in the judicial process will be introduced to support the successful prosecution of alleged wildlife criminals.

National Police Commissioner Riah Phiyega said she has directed a team of detectives trained in wildlife crime investigations, forensics experts, the SA Police Service air wing, the flying squad and the dog unit to assist the SANParks Board with current investigations on poaching.

“This additional team will attend to all the outstanding and new crime scenes and continue to do proper crime scene investigation and management,” said Phiyega.

She pleaded with communities living around game reserves to continue playing their role in helping police arrest the poachers.

She warned that poachers were becoming more sophisticated in their methods to poach rhinos.

“It is our ultimate objective to establish a long term solution to drastically reduce the incidents of rhino poaching,” she said.

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Saudi Arabia Takes Steps To Guard Against Ebola Virus

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By Sultan al-Barei

The Saudi government is taking steps to prevent the spread of the highly contagious Ebola virus, which has a case fatality rate of up to 90% and causes muscular pains, fever, headaches and in some cases, internal and external haemorrhaging.

The kingdom has taken preventative measures to stop the virus entering from the West African countries where most cases have been recorded, in addition to tightening its measures countrywide and at border crossings.

World Health Organisation (WHO) procedures require that blood samples be sent to international laboratories to ascertain the diagnosis in the event of fatalities, said Dr. Waheed Abdul Majeed, an infectious diseases specialist at a state hospital in Jeddah.

By following these steps, “we can inspect the status of the virus to see whether it has changed or remained as it was observed in African countries”, he said.

The Saudi Ministry of Health followed this procedure last week after a Saudi man died while showing symptoms similar to Ebola, Abdul Majeed said. The man tested negative for the virus.

In the event of a suspected fatality from the virus, the kingdom creates a timeline of all the areas the deceased visited and the people with whom he came into contact, the doctor said. These people will then undergo compulsory and detailed medical tests to make sure they are virus-free.

Infection occurs through direct contact with the blood or bodily secretions of an infected person, he said.

The WHO announced an emergency plan to contain the virus after the first case was recorded in Guinea on February 9th. Since then, the number of confirmed Ebola cases has reached 1,779 with 961 deaths, based on the latest WHO figures.

In an August 8th statement, the WHO said an emergency committee that convened to discuss the outbreak in West Africa had unanimously agreed that the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern have been met.
Safeguarding pilgrims

“Although the International Air Transport Association has not yet placed restrictions on travel due to the Ebola virus, Saudi Arabia has taken several precautions to avoid a catastrophic outbreak in the kingdom,” said Faisal Aba Zaid of the public administration for the affairs of pilgrims at the Ministry of Hajj.

New measures include strict health monitoring at airports for arriving Saudis and visitors coming from countries where the virus has been cited or is prevalent, he said.

In April, Saudi Arabia stopped issuing visitor, hajj and umrah visas to residents of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and Saudi health authorities have put tight controls in place at the kingdom’s holy places in order to detect anyone exhibiting symptoms of the virus, Aba Zaid said.

Aba Zaid said he did not expect the hajj season to be affected by the epidemic in light of the tight preventative health measures Saudi Arabia has put in place.

The Ministry of Hajj is working with the Ministry of Health to keep abreast of the latest news and WHO updates related to the Ebola virus and to implement any required measures, he said.

“Medical centres and infirmaries located in areas where pilgrims gather have been equipped with quarantine units, especially as there are no globally recognised drugs to treat the virus,” he said.

“The Saudi authorities have taken serious preventative measures at land, sea and air ports and a medical staff of nurses and doctors have been stationed at the different ports and airports,” said Saad al-Shaaban, a customs officer at the Jeddah Islamic Port.

Detailed guidelines providing information on how to deal with any suspected case of the virus also have been distributed to staff at these crossings, he told Al-Shorfa.

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Libya: Terrorists Target Journalists

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By Aya Elbrqawi

Terrorists in Libya are targeting the press.

Three reporters from Alassema TV channel spent five days in captivity before their release on Wednesday (August 6th). They were snatched while covering a demonstration in support of the Libyan army.

A day earlier, five members of a crew for Albarqa TV were kidnapped at a fake checkpoint near Ajdabiya. They were abducted after reporting the inauguration of the new House of Representatives in Tobruk.

A cameraman who managed to escape from kidnappers described the ordeal on his Facebook page.

“I shake from the sound of the wind and shiver from the light of vehicles,” Ahmed Fathi al-Masri wrote. After hiding for 8 hours, he fled for safety, leaving his fellow abductees behind.

No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnappings.

“The channel has been attacking the terrorists and exposing the wrongdoings of some of the former General National Congress members,” Alassema employee Mohammed Omar told Magharebia.

“We continuously receive threats,” said another Alassema reporter, who refused to be identified.

Kidnappings are not the only threat to media professionals in Libya. Reporters also risk assassination.

Terrorists have tried on several occasions to kill Libya al-Ahrar TV journalist Khadija al-Amami, but she continues to speak out.

“The revolution was launched so everyone could enjoy freedom of expression,” she said.

Although journalists were “the ones reporting on the revolution to the outside world”, she said, they are now being kidnapped “by despicable hands that understand only one approach: if you’re not with me, you’re against me”.

“Such an approach doesn’t recognise free media that aims to build the country on sound foundations and reports on news objectively,” al-Amami added.

One case sparked particular outrage: the abduction and murder of Naseeb Miloud Karfana, a reporter for state-owned TV station Libya Al-Wataniya.

“Her throat had been cut and she appeared to have been tortured,” the international media watchdog group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said June 2nd after Karfana’s body was found in Sabha.

Her murder came just days after the assassination of top Libyan journalist Meftah Bouzid in Benghazi. Bouzid, the editor of Brnieq, was a vocal critic of jihadist groups.

Fellow Brnieq journalist Ahmed Saleh told Magharebia: “There have been many attacks, not only on journalists, but also right activists, such as Abdessalam El Mesmari who was assassinated because he spoke on TV about the terrorists.”

“We don’t forget the female journalist who was found slain, and also rights activist Salwa Bugaighis,” Saleh added. “Journalists, especially women, are continuously threatened.”

“To those terrorists, we have only one solution: to say the word of truth, even if it will have us killed,” the reporter said.

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Ending Eritrea’s Youth Exodus

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Eritrea’s youth exodus has significantly reduced the young nation’s human capital. While this has had advantages for the government – allowing the departure of those most dissatisfied and most likely to press for political change – the growing social and political impact of mass migration at home and abroad demands concerted domestic and international action.

Authoritarian rule, social malaise and open-ended national service drive thousands of young people to flee Eritrea every month, exposing the shortcomings of a leadership that has lost the confidence of the next generation. The International Crisis Group’s latest briefing, Eritrea: Ending the Exodus?, shows that while the government turned this flight to its advantage for a time, the scale – and attendant criminality – of the exodus are now pressing problems.

The briefing’ notes that as in the past, Eritreans are fleeing for political and economic reasons, including to sustain the communities they leave behind. But through their remittances, as well as a tax that many in the diaspora pay the state, they help prop up the very system they escaped.

Regional and wider international policies to further isolate Eritrea’s uncompromising leadership are counterproductive. Together with the border conflict with Ethiopia, they provide the regime with justification to maintain Eritrea’s “state of exception”, including an unending national service, a closed political system and the continued deferment of constitutional rights, especially individual social and economic freedoms.

The Eritrean government, with help from international partners, especially the EU and UN, should work toward gradual demobilisation and restructure the country’s economy to enhance job prospects for the young.

“The exodus is symptomatic of social malaise and growing disaffection with the regime” says Cedric Barnes, Horn of Africa Project Director. “The state’s demand for the sacrifice of individual ambition to the greater good of the Eritrean nation – resigning oneself to indefinite national service – causes more and more Eritreans to leave the country, even if that means risking their lives”.

“The impact of the exodus on final-destination countries demands a new approach to the current Eritrean government. In a Europe where immigration policies are increasingly in question, the Eritrean problem cannot be ignored”, says Comfort Ero, Africa Program Director. “For all sides, finding ways to end the exodus could replace continuing sterile confrontation with fertile ground for cooperation”.

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