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Is Turkey Entering An Energy Bottleneck? – OpEd

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In the coming days, we will be seeing new developments in  Turkey’s energy markets and should therefore make upfront predictions to develop appropriate strategies. We have very serious problems in our natural gas supply. Even if we do not have any political friction with Ukraine or Russia, in the days when temperatures drop below -5 °C our natural gas demand will not be met. There are optimistic expectations that this shortage may be made up by gas being supplied from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz-2, Israeli offshore fields, or Northern Iraq, however these prospects have not yet been secured with contracts. In these difficult times, in an overly complicated geography, these optimistic expectations represent nothing more than “wishful thinking”, as we cannot plan for the future based on such loose conditions.

Our installed electricity generation capacity has reached 68,000 MWe, but the peak (maximum) output does not exceed 40,000 MWe. While we have had a limited number of new thermal power plant ventures in recent years, more will be needed to fulfill our rising energy demand and this will take some time.

Currently, we have a host of power plant ventures which initiated their investments in the year 2007 or earlier. While opportune investments in wind and geothermal power plants have increased, recently, no new ventures to construct thermal power plants have been seen. The most recent thermal power plant projects, under construction in Tufanbeyli, Göynük, Adularia, and Iskenderun, are expected to be commissioned in 2015 at the latest. Besides these, there are no other new thermal power plant projects in the works.

Our hydro-electric power plants have all but stopped operating. In general, most dam reservoirs are only half-full because of the lack of rainfall that we have received in recent years. During and after the winter season, we may see an increase in precipitation that could replenish the reservoirs of our hydro-electric dams, but it is unsure if these accumulations will be enough to produce substantial amounts of electricity.

There are new natural gas-firing combined cycle thermal power plant ventures, but there is not enough natural gas to fuel them nor any contracts that ensure the inflow of gas. Moreover, we do not yet have the free market conditions or the legal assurances that could safeguard the system.

One can enact as many rules and regulations as they like, but in the long term this will not secure a necessary supply of gas. Gas prices should not be subsidized by public funds. The cost of natural gas increased between 2005 and 2007, whereas electricity prices stayed constant between 2002 and 2007 by way of subsidization. This has posed difficulty for private players in the energy market.

Shell Corporation has initiated 2 separate drillings in our country to explore for shale-gas, at a cost of 40 million US dollars each. The third well is awaiting the approval to commence drilling. Optimistic estimates predict that there are about 1.8 trillion cubic meters worth of shale gas reserves in South East Anatolia, so, considering that our current annual gas demand is around 45 billion cubic meters, such a discovery would meet our needs for at least the next 40 years. However, for this to become a reality we would need to make substantial investments in drilling. This brings up the question of who would pay for such an expenditure.

Over the last 10 years, public companies were unable to make any investments in the energy sector. Public institutions have promoted and encouraged only local and foreign investors to fund projects. Public institutions have tried to avoid any legal responsibility, and have not agreed to guarantee any purchases when it comes to energy sales. They have opted to avoid the assumption of any legal, contractual, and financial responsibility. While it is necessary for the country to invest more in energy generation, there is simply no easy money to do so. In this case, both local and foreign investors have serious concerns as to the reliability of the investment environment.

Old local coal-fired thermal power plants were sold due to privatization, however, their availabilities are low, they are operationally inefficient, and they possess equipment that is not conducive to environmental protection including low quality electrostatic precipitators. Furthermore, most of them have no flue gas desulphurization units. Such plants require costly rehabilitation, or even complete replacement. Yet, they are legally exempt from rehabilitation and can continue operating until 2018 without any upgrades. Here, while this exemption was actually overturned by judicial decree, the new ruling is not enforced. This has led to a situation in which the plants will continue to operate as they have before until a new legal measure is implemented. In this way, the old, existing coal-fired thermal power plants continue to pollute the environment without the use of newer, better, and bigger environmental equipment. To top it off, there is also the possibility that this exemption status could be extended for an additional 3 year years.

The construction of new thermal power plants continues, namely, the Diler 600-1200 MW, Cen-AL 1200 MW, Biga 1200 MW, Şırnak 405 MW, Soma 450 MW, Kırıkkale 800 MW, Bandırma 920 MW and some other small 400 MW plants.

Most hydroelectric power plants, such as the controversial Ilisu 1,200 MW Dam and the Kalehan 300 MW Dam, plus some other 3-5 GW projects, should come on line within the next few years. New ventures in wind energy that will produce a total of 500 MW per year for the next 4 years may also begin operations soon.

Most of these new power plant ventures were actually initiated long ago and they are just now beginning to come closer to commencing operations. Now, the construction and equipment procurement of these projects are in their advanced stages within the financial markets, despite the setbacks which may have been experienced.

Within the next 4 to 5 years, new solar plants with capacities of 1-3 GW can also begin to contribute to meeting the predicted peak electricity demands during the summer months.

With a combined average capacity of 10-13 GW, new solar power plants may be introduced within the next 3 to 4 years. After this we should also consider nuclear power plants. Investment financing in this sector is dependent on the social and political climate. According to the newly released “Medium Term Economic Program”, Turkey’s growth rate is expected to fall to 4.5% per year, and an annual increase in energy demand will be readjusted accordingly.

When it comes to the natural gas supply, if we have no failings in domestic transmission, if the Ukraine-Russia crisis does not escalate, and if there are no technical capacity issues at the Russian points of entry, then we may consider new contracts to purchase extra gas from Russia. European gas consumption is predicted to decline by at least 10%, and as a result, natural gas prices will inevitably decline to levels that are most likely less than 240 US dollars per thousand cubic meters, whereas the current price is hovering around 400 US dollars per thousand cubic meters. This situation means that for Russia any additional gas sale in the future will be a very valuable gain.

In the Elbistan coal fields, each plant has four units that are capable of producing 350 MWe each. The Afşin-A plant is running only one unit at a 240 MWe capacity. Afşin-B plant has only two units running at full capacity. Here, the other units are down. They need rehabilitation, maintenance, or even complete replacement. For the rehabilitation of these units, a new tender for engineering consultation has been released which will take some time to complete. The Çöllolar coal field is closed due to a past land slide which occurred in the mine. The Hurman Creek, which passes through coal field, will be equipped with a new artificial river bed. Operations to dewater the coal field are currently underway.

New ventures that seek to exploit the Elbistan C-D-E coal fields are underway. Site visits, feasibility studies, and the drawing up of preliminary contracts have been carried out by Chinese, South Korean, Japanese, and Qatari investment groups. An investment budget of around 12 billion US dollars is being discussed. The public side should also participate in these stages of the project to help shoulder the risks to these groups’ investments.

The new Afşin power plants in the Elbistan coal fields will face 4 major risks that the public sector should take major initiative to address. These are: the artificialization of the river bed, replacement and removal of existing power lines away from the coal field, land expropriation and resettlement of the local population, and construction of new dams to meet the plants’ water needs. These efforts are to be within the scope of public enterprises as private entities are incapable of addressing issues of this scale.

Alternately, the price of imported coal on the international market has dropped to FOB 60-70 US dollars per metric ton, which corresponds to approximately 2.40-2.50 US dollars per MMBTU. In the past, this price hovered in the range of 80-90 US dollars per metric ton, and even climbed to 160 US dollars at one point. This development shows that investment in the sector comes with its own inherent risks.

Nonetheless, the local price of coal is stable in the long run, at around 2.00-2.50 US dollars per metric ton at mine mouth delivery. The fluctuations in these prices are limited at best.

We may also want to consider the production of synthetic gas from low quality underground coal mines. While its calorific value is 1/4 or 1/5 that of natural gas, at around 1500-2500 kcal HHV per thousand cubic meter, syn gas is more environmentally friendly compared to coal. In this regard, a couple of pilot field test plants are being constructed at Soma-A and Tuncbilek.

All in all, with these developments in mind, we have serious problems facing our local energy markets as it is proving more and more difficult to meet the ever-increasing energy demand that is so vital for our economic and social development.

The post Is Turkey Entering An Energy Bottleneck? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


It’s Rarely About The Environment Anymore – OpEd

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Back in 1970, when I got involved in the first Earth Day and nascent environmental movement, we had real pollution problems. But over time, new laws, regulations, attitudes and technologies cleaned up our air, water and sloppy industry practices. By contrast, today’s battles are rarely about the environment.

As Ron Arnold and I detail in our new book, Cracking Big Green: To save the world from the save-the-Earth money machine, today’s eco-battles pit a $13.4-billion-per-year U.S. environmentalist industry against the reliable, affordable, 82% fossil fuel energy that makes our jobs, living standards, health, welfare and environmental quality possible. A new Senate Minority Staff Report chronicles how today’s battles pit poor, minority and blue-collar families against a far-left “Billionaires Club” and the radical environmentalist groups it supports and directs, in collusion with federal, state and local bureaucrats, politicians and judges – and with thousands of corporate bosses and alarmist scientists who profit mightily from the arrangements.

These ideological comrades in arms run masterful, well-funded, highly coordinated campaigns that have targeted, not just coal, but all hydrocarbon energy, as well as nuclear and even hydroelectric power. They fully support the Obama agenda, largely because they helped create that agenda.

They seek ever-greater control over our lives, livelihoods, living standards, liberties and wealth. They know they will rarely, if ever, be held accountable for the fraudulent science they employ and the callous, careless, even deliberate harm they inflict. They also know their own wealth and power will largely shield them from the deprivations that their policies impose on the vast majority of Americans.

These Radical Greens have impacted coal mines, coal-fired power plants, factories, the jobs that went with them, and the family security, health and welfare that went with those jobs. They have largely eliminated leasing, drilling, mining and timber harvesting across hundreds of millions of acres in the western United States and Alaska – and are now targeting ranchers. In an era of innovative seismic and drilling technologies, they have cut oil production by 6% and gas production by 28% on federally controlled lands.

Meanwhile, thanks to a hydraulic fracturing revolution that somehow flew in under the Radical Green radar, oil production on state and private lands has soared by 60% – from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 (the lowest ebb since 1943) to 8 million bpd in 2014. Natural gas output climbed even more rapidly. This production reduced gas and gasoline prices, and created hundreds of thousands of jobs in hundreds of industries and virtually every state. So now, of course, Big Green is waging war on “fracking” (which the late Total Oil CEO Christophe de Margerie jovially preferred to call “rock massage”).

As Marita Noon recently noted, Environment America has issued a phony “Fracking by the Numbers” screed. It grossly misrepresents this 67-year-old technology and falsely claims the industry deliberately obscures the alleged environmental, health and community impacts of fracking, by limiting its definition to only the actual moment in the extraction process when rock is fractured. For facts about fracking, revisit a few of my previous articles: here, here and here – and another new US Senate report.

Moreover, when it comes to renewable energy, Big Green studiously ignores its own demands for full disclosure and obfuscates the impacts of technologies it promotes. Wind power is a perfect example.

Far from being “free” and “eco-friendly,” wind-based electricity is extremely unreliable and expensive, despite the mandates and subsidies lavished on it. The cradle-to-grave ecological impacts are stunning.

The United States currently has over 40,000 turbines, up to 570 feet tall and 3.0 megawatts in nameplate output. Unpredictable winds mean they generate electricity at 15-20% of this “rated capacity.” The rest of the time mostly fossil fuel generators do the work. That means we need 5 to 15 times more steel, concrete, copper and other raw materials, to build huge wind facilities, transmission lines to far-off urban centers, and “backup” generators – than if we simply built the backups near cities and forgot about the turbines.

Every one of those materials requires mining, processing, shipping – and fossil fuels. Every turbine, backup generator and transmission line component requires manufacturing, shipping – and fossil fuels. The backups run on fossil fuels, and because they must “ramp up” dozens of times a day, they burn fuel very inefficiently, need far more fuel, and emit far more “greenhouse gases,” than if we simply built the backups and forgot about the wind turbines. The environmental impacts are enormous.

Environmentalists almost never mention any of this – or the outrageous wildlife and human impacts.

Bald and golden eagles and other raptors are attracted to wind turbines, by prey and the prospect of using the towers for perches, nests and resting spots, Save the Eagles International president Mark Duchamp noted in comments to the US Fish & Wildlife Service. As a result, thousands of these magnificent flyers are slaughtered by turbines every year. Indeed, he says, turbines are “the perfect ecological trap” for attracting and killing eagles, especially as more and more are built in and near important habitats.

Every year, Duchamp says, they also butcher millions of other birds and millions of bats that are attracted to turbines by abundant insects – or simply fail to see the turbine blades, whose tips travel at 170 mph.

Indeed, the death toll is orders of magnitude higher than the “only” 440,000 per year admitted to by Big Wind companies and the USFWS. Using careful carcass counts tallied for several European studies, I have estimated that turbines actually kill at least 13,000,000 birds and bats per year in the USA alone!

Wildlife consultant Jim Wiegand has written several articles that document these horrendous impacts on raptors, the devious methods the wind industry uses to hide the slaughter, and the many ways the FWS and Big Green collude with Big Wind operators to exempt wind turbines from endangered species, migratory bird and other laws that are imposed with iron fists on oil, gas, timber and mining companies. The FWS and other Interior Department agencies are using worries about sage grouse and White Nose Bat Syndrome to block mining, drilling and fracking. But wind turbines get a free pass, a license to kill.

Big Green, Big Wind and Big Government regulators likewise almost never mention the human costs – the sleep deprivation and other health impacts from infrasound noise and constant light flickering effects associated with nearby turbines, as documented by Dr. Sarah Laurie and other researchers.

In short, wind power may well be our least sustainable energy source – and the one least able to replace fossil fuels or reduce carbon dioxide emissions that anti-energy activists falsely blame for climate change (that they absurdly claim never happened prior to the modern industrial age). But of course their rants have nothing to do with climate change or environmental protection.

The climate change dangers exist only in computer models, junk-science “studies” and press releases. But as the “People’s Climate March” made clear, today’s watermelon environmentalists (green on the outside, red on the inside) do not merely despise fossil fuels, fracking and the Keystone pipeline. They also detest free enterprise capitalism, modern living standards, private property … and even pro football!

They invent and inflate risks that have nothing to do with reality, and dismiss the incredible benefits that fracking and fossil fuels have brought to people worldwide. They go ballistic over alleged risks of using modern technologies, but are silent about the clear risks of not using those technologies. And when it comes to themselves, Big Green and the Billionaires Club oppose and ignore the transparency, integrity, democracy and accountability standards that they demand from everyone they attack.

The upcoming elections offer an opportunity to start changing this arrogant, totalitarian system – and begin rolling back some of the radical ideologies and agendas that have been too institutionalized in Congress, our courts, Executive Branch and many state governments. May we seize the opportunity.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death.

The post It’s Rarely About The Environment Anymore – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Airline Deregulation Act Of 1978 – OpEd

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President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act on October 24, 1978. That law phased out the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) over the next four years, ending five decades of federal regulation of passenger airfares on interstate commercial flights and entry into the airline industry. One of prime movers behind this first legislative initiative to deregulate a major U.S. industry was Alfred Kahn, a respected academic specialist in the economics of regulation from Cornell University’s faculty, then serving as the CAB’s chairman.

Ostensibly intended to protect the flying public against excessive ticket prices, the CAB did no such thing. Evidence began accumulating in the late 1960s and early 1970s that airfares on regulated interstate flights were in fact considerably higher than the fares charged on routes covering the same distance on flights departing and landing within the same state (e.g., California’s Pacific Southwest Airlines, the forerunner of today’s Southwest Airlines), which were not subject to federal regulatory controls.

Moreover, as reported by Nobel laureate George Stigler, in his famous 1971 article published in the Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science (“The Economic Theory of Regulation”), throughout its history, the CAB never saw fit to authorize the entry of any new commercial airline. In consequence, owing to mergers and consolidations of route networks over time, fewer U.S. airlines were flying the skies in 1970 than had been operating when the CAB was created in 1938.

The commercial airline industry thus stood front and center as an example of Stigler’s “capture theory” of regulation, which teaches that, far from being thrust upon unwilling firms to protect the public’s interest, regulation is acquired by and operated in the interest of the regulated industry itself.

As pointed out by other economists, including George W. Douglas, James C. Miller III and Thomas Gale Moore, a fly landed on the regulatory ointment. Because of federal regulation, the airlines could not compete for passengers by cutting airfares below the minimums prescribed by the CAB. (Those minimum airfares were set for the twin purposes of safeguarding the interests of consumers and of guaranteeing that the airlines’ owners earned “reasonable” rates of return on their investments.)

Non-price competition eventually eroded the airlines’ regulatory profits. Each airline sought to increase the number of passengers carried on scheduled flights relative to rivals by offering sumptuous meals (even to those flying “coach) and hired well-known chefs to oversee in-flight meal services. They hired attractive young women as stewardesses, outfitted them with uniforms designed by notable couturiers (readers of a certain age will remember Braniff Airlines’ “When you got it, flaunt it” advertising campaign featuring “stews” in hot pants), superannuated them on their 30th birthdays, and put them on notice that personnel actions would be taken if they gained too much weight.

But the most salient cost-raising aspect of non-price airline competition was the incentive to offer passengers, especially business travelers, a variety of convenient departure and arrival times between major cities. Doing so required purchasing more aircraft and hiring more pilots and other aircrew members. The upshot was that only half of the seats on a typical flight were filled (a 50 percent “load factor,” in airline jargon).

Towards the end and recognizing that the CAB could not protect their profits, the airlines asked to be deregulated. A possibly apocryphal story suggests that the airlines’ request was supported by Nevada’s congressional delegation owing to the CAB’s perceived failure to authorize more flights to land in Las Vegas.

Prompted in part by Alfred Kahn’s testimony, Congress passed the Airline Deregulation Act and President Carter signed it into law on October 26, 1978. Because of the stagflation and “malaise” gripping the economy at the time, President Carter justified his action publicly as an initiative that would help fight inflation. That explanation was, of course, nonsensical, but Mr. Carter was trained at the Naval Academy as a “nuculer” (his Georgian pronunciation of “nuclear”) engineer, not as an economist.

It is important to emphasize that the Airline Deregulation Act did not undercut the regulation of aircraft safety by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) while deregulating the CAB’s economic controls over airfares and market entry. Safety (measured by the number of airline accidents and passenger injuries and deaths per mile travelled) has been rising secularly for many years so that flying is about the safest travel mode on the planet; it is certainly much less risky to board a plane to Granny’s house for Thanksgiving than to drive there.

At the end of the day, however, October 24th is a date that should be celebrated for relaxing the federal government’s regulatory death grip on the American economy. Few examples of deregulation exist. Another, for which thanks also are owed to President Carter and to Senator Ted Kennedy, is the sun-setting of the Interstate Commerce Commission, established in 1887 to oversee railroad pricing and later given authority to regulate over-the-road motor carriers and interstate pipelines.

Although flying coach nowadays is like riding a Greyhound Bus, airfares are significantly lower, thereby making flying affordable to many more people. One can lament the loss of some of the benefits of regulation, such as meals in coach, attentive cabin attendants, and lots of empty seats, but most people probably prefer lower airfares to the higher ones that regulators previously forced them to pay.

The post Airline Deregulation Act Of 1978 – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi Arabia: Women Driving Campaign Dropped

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By Ghazanfar Ali Khan and Afifa Jabeen Quraishi

Women will not take to the streets on Sunday to mark the one-year anniversary of a nationwide campaign launched on Oct. 26, 2013 calling on the Saudi government to lift the driving ban.

The statement, made by a leading advocate, comes in the wake of a recent Interior Ministry warning against women driving.

Some 2,500 women had signed the online campaign to drive cars on the Kingdom’s streets on Sunday.

“The ministry’s warning will be heeded. What happened last year was not orchestrated,” said Samia El-Moslimany, a Saudi woman and supporter of the Oct. 26 campaign.

The ministry described any such attempt by women to drive in public “an opportunity for predators to undermine social cohesion.”

El-Moslimany said: “Nothing has been planned to violate the ministry’s warning. Oct. 26 is a symbolic day. The campaign is only to create awareness on the issue.”

Campaigners had been encouraging women to drive and post pictures or clips of them driving online like they did in the run-up to last year’s protest.

Last year’s campaign gathered pace on social media, with several uploading footage of them driving on YouTube.

At least 25 women had gotten behind the wheel, of whom five were stopped by police and their male guardians were made to sign pledges not to allow their female relatives to drive again.

El-Moslimany herself was detained last year for getting behind the wheel on Oct. 26.

“The issue of women driving has nothing to do with society. It could happen through a royal decree much in the same way King Faisal introduced education for women and girls despite the consternation of conservatives,” she said.

Two vital organizations, meanwhile, have lent their support to women driving by making their very first public comments on a ban that has long since garnered protest and disdain.

Members of both the Shoura Council and the National Society of Human Rights (NSHR) have, however, called for a “gradual approach” to allowing women behind the steering wheel.

Members also called for refraining from demonstrating against the continued ban.

“The Saudi government has said all along that there is nothing official against women driving,” said Saleh Al-Kathlan, deputy chief of the NSHR, here Saturday.

“Then, along comes the recent statement made by the Ministry of Interior citing ‘government regulations’ against driving and warning that violators of such ‘regulations’ would be punished,” he added.

“In such a situation, the basis of society’s argument for allowing women to drive becomes meaningless,” said Al-Kathlan.

“This puts human rights activists advocating a gradual approach to this issue in a very awkward position,” said representatives from the NSHR.

Shoura member Hoda Al-Helaissi backed the move, saying “there is a social and economic need for women to drive.”

“However, this will not happen if society is not ready. Delving into the reasons behind why our society is not ready will not solve the problem per se,” said Al-Helaissi.

“More and more students — especially young women — are coming back from abroad after completing their scholarships, looking to make a life for themselves,” she said. “Their financial status and newly acquired thoughts will not allow for such a restriction.

She added: “That is at the one end. On the other, women in the lower financial bracket who are alone, divorced or widowed cannot afford a driver. I believe the time will come when women will have to drive because life demands cannot wait. All it is now is a waiting game to see when this will happen.”

Ziad Al-Okayyal, a Saudi businessman, said: “The debate over allowing women to drive has been heating up between the opposing and supporting camps, which use religious, social and economic reasoning to garner support for their views.”

Some say that having a male stranger to drive women around defies the purpose from a religious and social perspective.

About 47 percent of women in the Kingdom own cars, according to statistics, but need drivers to get around.

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Cardinal Nichols Clarifies, Dispels Media Portrayals Of Synod

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After returning from the 2014 Synod on the Family, Cardinal Vincent Nichols of Westminster has clarified that the meeting was focused upon reaching out to those in difficulty, rather than changing doctrine.

“You may have heard or read that this Synod has been about changing the teaching of the Church on marriage, family life or sexual morality. This is not true,” the cardinal said.

“It was about the pastoral care that we try to offer each other, the ‘motherly love of the Church’, especially when facing difficult moments and experiences in family life.”

In a pastoral letter released Oct. 24, Cardinal Nichols recounted the “rich and moving experience” of taking part in the Extraordinary Synod of Bishops that was held earlier this month in Rome.

He rejected numerous media portrayals of the synod, stating firmly, “There was no suggestion that the teaching of the Church might somehow give approval to the notion of ‘same-sex marriage’ or that its teaching on sexual morality is to change.”

Rather, he said, it was made clear that people should not be identified simply by sexual orientation, because they have a deep and unique dignity as a human person and a Christian that must be respected.

In addition, he said, it was clear at the synod that the Church’s teachings on respect, compassion and acceptance towards all people need to be “translated into loving care, in our daily life in the Church, in our parishes, and indeed in society.”

Cardinal Nichols also dispelled the notion that the synod “represented a ‘defeat for Pope Francis’ or that he was disappointed at its outcome.”

“At the end of our meeting Pope Francis spoke at length about his joy and satisfaction at its work,” the cardinal said, adding that the Pope stressed the synod as “a spiritual journey, not a debating chamber.”

“In fact, the very word ‘synod’ means making a walk or a journey together,” he said, explaining that this is what the synod participants did as they discussed a global range of issues affecting families, ranging from war, immigration and polygamy to inter-religious marriage, cohabitation and divorce.

Listening to the real struggles of married couples, synod participants were able to see both the overwhelming suffering that accompanies so many people today and the great joy and importance of marriage and family as a “sanctuary of holiness.”

“Pope Francis set the tone” at the synod, Cardinal Nichols said. “He asked us to look reality in the eye; to speak openly from the heart; to listen humbly and respectfully to each other.”

The result was a “marvelous experience of the Church as a family and of the Church, at this level, hard at work, trying to follow the promptings of the Holy Spirit and express them in carefully chosen words.”

While there were disagreements among synod members, there was no rancor or contestation, the cardinal said. Rather, participants demonstrated tranquility and trust, in response to the call of Pope Francis, who emphasized the need for the Church to go out and find the lost sheep in today’s world.

Cardinal Nichols explained the synod process of working to form documents that would reflect the views of participants.

“By the end I believe we got there,” he said, noting that the final synod report was voted on paragraph by paragraph, to show where the greatest areas of agreement were. That document will be the starting point for next year’s synod, which will focus on ‘The Vocation and Mission of the Family Today.’

“Central to the work of the Synod that has just ended was the desire to strengthen and reinvigorate the pastoral practice of the Church,” Cardinal Nichols emphasized. “A central principle for this pastoral care emerged clearly: that in trying to walk alongside people in difficult or exceptional situations, it is important to see clearly and with humility all the good aspects of their lives.”

“From this point, we learn to move together towards conversion and towards the goodness of life that God has for us and that Jesus opens for us all.”

This approach is particularly important in reaching out to individuals who are not living in the way that God asks, such as those cohabiting or the divorced and remarried, the cardinal said. Recognizing that there is still “real goodness” in their lives despite these shortcomings allows a basis for approaching them in care and offering an invitation to come closer to the Church and its call, knowing that this is where true happiness is found.

The coming year leading up to next year’s three-week synod has been described by Pope Francis as a time “to mature, with true spiritual discernment, the proposed ideas and find concrete solutions to so many difficulties and innumerable challenges that families must confront.”

Cardinal Nichols echoed this call, voicing hope that the ongoing prayer and reflection will yield fruit that will renew the Church “in response to the unfailing love of Jesus, under the leadership of Pope Francis and always in union with him.”

The post Cardinal Nichols Clarifies, Dispels Media Portrayals Of Synod appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Vietnam-India-Japan Trilateral As An Asian Strategic Coalition – Analysis

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By Dr Subhash Kapila

Imperatives exist for the crystallisation of an Asian Strategic Coalition comprising Vietnam, Japan and India for a more balanced Asian security environment and the foundation for this is already in existence in the form of Vietnam-India Strategic Partnership, Japan-India Special Global &Strategic Partnership and Japan-Vietnam Strategic Partnership.

Advocacy for this Asian Strategic Coalition stands made in the last year or so by me in my Presentations at International Conferences in Vietnam and Russia. Rise of Asian Strategic Coalitions was argued was a logical outcome of Russia not willing to de-link from China and the United States not wholly dispensing with its China Hedging Strategy. Rise of indigenous Asian Security Coalitions was therefore a natural corollary.

The Asian security environment cannot afford a strategic vacuum where China has an undeterred run of the Asian strategic landscape in the absence of the United States and Russia shirking from a wholesome shouldering of their strategic responsibilities as Great Powers and their own considerable stakes in Asia Pacific security.

Imperatives therefore exist to weld together the existing strategic partnerships in a Trilateral Strategic Coalition of Vietnam-India-Japan. It is my assessment that such a process would not raise hackles of the United States or Russia. In fact one could say that both these Great Powers would welcome such a step towards a balanced Asian security environment. This is evidenced by the United States lifting the ban on arms sales to Vietnam and Russia selling six submarines to Vietnam along with scores of Fighter Combat Aircraft.

China would be the only Asian nation which would make noises against such a Trilateral Coalition fully conscious of the reality that the rise of such a Strategic Coalition, as opposed to a formal Military Alliance is by itself in the nature of imposing political and strategic deterrence on China’s military brinkmanship across the Asian landscape and Asian maritime expanses. It has already come out against the nascent crystallisation of such a Trilateral and that strong Chinese opposition is ample evidence that such a Trilateral is an imperative for Asian security.

India under its new dynamic and assertive Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands uniquely placed to weave the Vietnam-India-Japan Strategic Trilateral Coalition into shape with the benefit of his discussions with Japanese Prime Minister during his recent visit to Tokyo and now can have discussions with the Vietnamese Prime Minister when he visits New Delhi on October 27-28, 2014. There can be no differences of opinion between Vietnam, India and Japan on the imperatives of such a Trilateral going by the strategic convergences that exist between these three nations. Nuances may differ but these can be ironed out by more detailed discussions.

Vietnam is crucially impacted by Chinese military adventurism and aggression in the South China Sea maritime expanse and India and Japan both have sizeable strategic and economic stakes in the security and safety of ‘global commons’ which now cover both maritime and aerial space dimensions after China’s unilateral declaration of an ADIZ over the East China Sea and is estimated to attempt the same over the South China Sea region.

Vietnam is the pivotal state in South East Asia and a powerful one too with its elongated configuration running parallel to the South China Sea. It has an unrivalled geostrategic location in relation to the security dominance of the South China Sea. China fully conscious of this reality has indulged in ‘island grabbing’ of Vietnamese Islands that dot the South China Sea. In terms of Asian security and the security of the South China Sea maritime expanse it is only Vietnam that stands between China and its military ambitions for full-scale sea control of the South China Sea at the expense of subverting the safety of the ‘global commons’.

Japan and India are the two contending Asian Powers against China’s unilateral strategic dominance of the Asian strategic space which China covets as its exclusive domain. China has laid bare its intentions in this direction in no uncertain terms, with Vietnam as its first target. It is now upto Japan and India to shoulder their responsibilities as responsible and benign stakeholders in Asia security to weave a Vietnam-India-Japan Trilateral Strategic Coalition for effective Asian security. This is an idea which was long overdue but its moment has now crucially arrived.

(Dr Subhash Kapila is Consultant, International Relations &Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analyses Group. He can be reached at drsubhashkapila.007@gmail.com)

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Germany Struggles To House Rising Number Of Asylum Seekers – Analysis

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When a video emerged last month of security guards physically abusing a resident of a refugee housing facility in the German town of Burbach, the ensuing media furore shone a light on an asylum system straining under the weight of an unprecedented caseload.

The video showed a young man handcuffed and lying on a mattress covered in vomit with a guard standing next to him. After police confiscated the guards’ cell phones, a photo was also found showing one of the guards standing with his foot on an Algerian refugee’s neck.

Over 130,000 asylum applications were made in Germany between January and September this year, by far the largest caseload in the European Union in terms of absolute numbers (as a percentage of the population several smaller countries such as Sweden, Malta and Austria have a higher “burden” of asylum seekers than Germany, the largest country in the EU). The Ministry for Migration and Refugees estimates that the number will reach over 200,000 by the end of the year, the highest level since the country received a large influx of asylum seekers during the Bosnian conflict in the early 1990s.

In June, the government approved a plan to grant temporary asylum to an additional 10,000 Syrians, primarily those with relatives already in Germany. Two similar programmes in 2013 brought another 10,000 Syrian refugees to the country. Although the number of Syrian refugees in Germany lags far behind – in both absolute and relative terms – the numbers in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, a quarter of asylum applications in Germany during September 2014 were from Syrians.

The Migration and Refugees Ministry, which processes asylum requests, has an estimated backlog of over 100,000 applications. In an effort to shorten the current average wait time of seven months to respond to each asylum claim, the Ministry is set to hire hundreds of new employees over the coming months.

Housing shortage

Meanwhile, Germany’s infrastructure for housing asylum seekers is showing signs of buckling under the pressure, with conditions deteriorating at overcrowded refugee shelters.

New asylum seekers are required to live in a short-term shelter for up to three months after they file their asylum applications. Afterwards, they are supposed to be moved into longer-term accommodation or, in some states, a private apartment, but the shortage of such housing is resulting in longer stays at increasingly over-stretched temporary shelters.

Following the revelations of abuse in the town of Burbach, 92km southeast of Cologne, asylum seekers at shelters in Hamburg and in the state of Saxony reported that they had also been abused by security guards.

In early October, the public broadcaster NDR reported abuse allegations at a Hamburg shelter on Schnackenburgallee, which currently houses about 1,200 asylum seekers, just over 300 of whom were living in tents as of mid-October. Most others are staying in containers more commonly found on construction sites. The containers, converted into small living spaces with four or five beds, have become a widespread form of housing for asylum seekers across Germany.

Germany’s 16 states are assigned a proportional number of asylum seekers, with more populous states taking in more refugees. Only 2.5 percent are sent to Hamburg, but the city’s shelters are experiencing many of the same problems as others around the country: overcrowding, poor conditions and allegations of abuse by staff.

Hamburg shelter

On a Friday afternoon in October, a group of men from Syria stand outside the entrance to the Schnackenburgallee shelter. Some of them have been living there for well over six months despite the fact that Schnackenburgallee is a short-term shelter which, along with a former post office building in the Hamburg neighbourhood of Harburg, was opened earlier this year to house the city’s rising number of refugees.

Both shelters are already overcrowded due to the lack of space at longer-term refugee housing, says Frank Reschreiter, a representative of Hamburg’s Interior Ministry. Tents had to be pitched on the grounds of the Schnackenburgallee shelter and in front of the building in Harburg months ago, but Reschreiter says residents are gradually being moved out of them. “We want to have all the tents gone by winter,” he said.

Alaa Hegazi, 28, from Syria, has been at Schnackenburgallee for nine months and is sharing a small container with four other men. He said he was expecting to be transferred to different housing in two weeks, but one week after he spoke to IRIN, city authorities informed him that he would be deported to Spain at the end of the month.

The EU’s Dublin Regulation allows Germany to deport asylum seekers to the EU country where they first registered their asylum claim, most often Mediterranean countries such as Italy and Greece where the majority of asylum seekers enter the EU. Alaa Hegazi came to Germany after registering as an asylum seeker in Spain.

Residents at Schnackenburgallee complain that the food makes them sick, they wait hours to speak with social workers, and share one bathroom with dozens of other people. They also accuse some of the security guards of being aggressive and unable to communicate with them.

Although the containers most residents live in are small, they are considered preferable to the tents, where 20 or 30 people sleep in rows of bunk beds.

Zeneb*, 29, from Afghanistan, had to stay in one of the tents outside the Harburg shelter with her three children when she arrived in Hamburg a month ago, despite being eight-months pregnant. “They put me in the tent because there was no room in the building. It was so cold at night and the bed was so uncomfortable,” she said. After becoming sick, Zeneb and her family were given a room inside the building.

City authorities recently announced that Hamburg will provide housing for another 2,800 refugees in 2015, most of whom will have to be housed in temporary accommodation such as tents and containers, according to the Hamburg Refugee Council.

A new study (in German) from Pro Asyl, a German refugee rights organization, found that seven of Germany’s 16 states have no minimum standards for refugee housing. Bernd Mesovic, deputy director of Pro Asyl, said some states house asylum seekers in apartments, while others have relied on large shelters and temporary makeshift housing, like containers.

In Bavaria, where 15.2 percent of refugees are housed, the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung recently published photos of refugees sleeping outdoors and crowded into a tent that had recently been used for the Oktoberfest (beer festival). Meanwhile, over 2,300 refugees in Munich are living in a former military barracks that has been converted into a shelter.

“Germany should be able to handle a certain amount of fluctuation in the number of refugees,” commented Mesovic. “Long-term public housing should be built that can accommodate refugees and others who need it.”

Right to work largely “symbolic”

Last month, the German Bundesrat (upper house of parliament) approved a new law that gives asylum seekers the right to work after three months in the country. Previously, asylum seekers could work only after nine months. The new law, which will go into effect after being signed by President Joachim Gauck, specifies that during an initial 15-month period after asylum seekers arrive, they can only be considered for a job if no qualified Germans or foreigners with work permits apply.

According to Mesovic, the new law is unlikely to improve asylum seekers’ living conditions. He described it as largely “symbolic”, noting that asylum seekers are unlikely to find work within months of arriving in Germany. “There are few people who would hire them,” he said, adding that many asylum seekers would first need help learning German and having their professional qualifications recognized.

As the political debate continues about how to fund and manage adequate refugee housing, Germany is one of 25 EU countries participating in Mos Maiorum, a campaign to round-up undocumented migrants launched on 13 October and expected to last for two weeks.

Out of 240 reported identity and border checks documented on a crowd-sourcing website since Mos Maiorum began, 104 of the incidents have been in Germany. However, a spokesperson with Germany’s federal police said the number of arrests in connection with Mos Maiorum would only be announced after the campaign ends on 26 October.

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Rare Footage Captures Ebola Discovery In 1976 (Video)

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As the largest recorded Ebola epidemic in West Africa has infected over 10,000 people, a Belgian newspaper publishes rare footage from 1976 when the deadly virus was first identified in Congo, or in Zaire as it was then known.

The three videos were recently released by the Institute of Tropical Medicine and were published by the Belgian newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws on Tuesday.

In 1976, a group of researchers headed by Belgian scientist Peter Piot who travelled to the remote village of Yambuku in the Republic of Zaire (currently the Democratic Republic of Congo). The scientists went to Africa to study what they thought to be the Marburg virus – a hemorrhagic fever virus that was discovered a few years earlier.

However, what they found was a virus we know today as Ebola, which was named after the small river that flows near the Yambuku village.

The videos show how the researchers tending to the Ebola-infected residents wearing protective gear – gas masks and white suits – similar to the ones used today. The doctors would burn their clothing to prevent further spread of the disease.

“An epidemic of unknown origin and transmission…is really frightening. Then you ask, is this transmitted by mosquitoes, food, by water, by shaking hands, sex—the usual ways?,” Dr. Piot said in an interview to The Wall Street Journal in October.

“The first known case, a 44-year-old male instructor at the Mission School, presented himself to the outpatient clinic at Yambuku Mission hospital on 26 August 1976 with a febrile illness thought to be malaria,” according to the 1978 bulletin of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Following the man’s death in September nine more cases occurred in the first week of the same month. During this outbreak 280 deaths out of 318 cases were recorded.

Since 1976 there have been several outbreaks of the deadly virus, with the largest epidemic currently ongoing in West Africa. According to the WHO, 10,141 cases of the Ebola virus have been registered through Thursday with 4,922 deaths from the disease.

Eight countries have been affected, with Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone suffering the most. The virus is transmitted through blood or bodily fluids, according to the WHO. Persons infected with the Ebola may start showing symptoms – such as fever, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhea and internal and external bleeding – as soon as two days after contracting the virus.

The average EVD case fatality rate in the current epidemic is around 50 percent, while case fatality rates have varied from 25 percent to 90 percent in past outbreaks, the WHO said.

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Iran Executes Woman For Killing Ex-Intelligence Officer

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(RFE/RL) — Iranian authorities have hanged a 26-year-old woman for the murder of a former intelligence official.

Iran’s official IRNA news agency quoted the Tehran prosecutor’s office as saying Reyhaneh Jabbari was hanged at dawn on October 25.

A Facebook page, “Save Reyhaneh Jabbari From Execution In Iran,” that campaigned for her release confirmed her execution.

Amnesty International said in a October 24 statement that Jabbari, an interior designer, was due to be executed for the 2007 stabbing of Morteza Abdolali Sarbandi.

A UN human rights monitor has said the killing of Sarbandi was self-defense after he tried to sexually assault Jabbari, and that her 2009 trial and conviction was flawed.

The United Nations says more than 250 people have been executed in Iran in 2014.

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Ukraine: Poroshenko Bloc Set To Dominate Elections – Analysis

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By Oleg Shynkarenko

With less than a month to go until Ukraine’s presidential elections, President Petro Poroshenko’s coalition looks to dominate the vote, although nearly a third of voters remain undecided.

According to a poll carried out last month by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives foundation, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc has a clear lead with 26.9 per cent.

In second place was the populist Radical Party with 6.2 per cent and Batkivschyna, led by former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was third with 5.5 per cent. Other pollsters put Batkivschyna second and the Radicals behind.

The October 26 election will be overshadowed by the conflict in the east of the country, where separatist leaders say they will prevent people voting and instead hold their own ballot in November. Crimea, annexed by Russia in March, held an election for its assembly last month.

Yevhen Semehin, 28, a civic activist from Makeyevka in the eastern Donetsk region, said more than two million voters had been disenfranchised.

“Residents of the two regions [Donetsk and Luhansk] have been deprived of their constitutional right to vote and influence the future composition of the Supreme Council,” he said. He believes a parliamentary election should only be held if everyone in Ukraine gets to vote, otherwise the legislature will be “illegitimate”.

Following his victory in May’s presidential race, Poroshenko called an early parliamentary election for October with the aim of creating a legitimate elected body.

According to the Central Election Commission, over 50 political parties have registered for the election. With the threshold set at five per cent, there will be fierce competition among the more than 6,600 candidates for the 450 seats in parliament.

Analysts say that the political landscape can be divided into three main streams – liberal democrats, nationalists and figures from the old order.

Many share similar platforms, and this may split the vote. Some parties like Samopomich (“Self-Reliance”), headed by Lviv mayor Andry Sadovy under the slogan “Christian morality and common sense” have been very active on social media but are unlikely to translate this into electoral success.

The party was predicted to take just 1.7 per cent of the vote in the Ilko Kucheriv poll.

“Samopomich is just one of many new democratic parties which hold very similar views, but all of which are separated from each other, so that they cannot achieve a cumulative effect in voter percentages,” political scientist Olexiy Haran told IWPR. “It isn’t enough to have some progressive ideas that satisfy a sophisticated and well-informed Facebook audience. “You need a fairly comprehensive political narrative and a developed network of regional organisations in order to gain recognition among the broader population.”

Haran said the high level support for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc was attributable to the president’s pragmatic approach, but he warned its appeal could fade if it failed to convince voters that it had taken action against corruption or that it could end the war in the east.

This view was shared by Halyna Saychuk, a 26-year-old Kiev bookkeeper, who told IWPR, “I might vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, but I’m not sure. I’d like to believe him, but I can’t believe just like that. He needs to deliver everything he’s promised.”

With nearly a third of voters undecided, some smaller groupings may make it past the threshold. The Ilko Kucheriv poll listed the possibles as the liberal Civic Position with 4.6 per cent, the People’s Front, led by current prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk with 3.9 per cent and the nationalist Svoboda (“Freedom”) party with 3.3 per cent.

The Communist Party of Ukraine could also scrape in if it does better than the three per cent currently predicted, but it is seen by many as a symbol of Russian control, and it did not support the Kiev protests earlier this year that led to a change of government. The toppling of statues of Vladimir Lenin in towns around Ukraine is another reflection of perceptions of the Soviet past.

In all, 127 politicians who sat in the parliament of former president Viktor Yanukovich are running for office again. Most are running as independents in “single mandate constituencies”, which account for 225 seats in parliament filled on a first-past-basis. The rest are elected by proportional representation from lists of candidates offered by parties.

These old guard figures include Vladyslav Atroshenko, who voted for anti-protest legislation in January that resulted in the death of more than 100 protestors. Atroshenko is among the politicians named on an internet site dedicated to naming and shaming politicians who supported the Yanukovich regime.

Activists have also tried to block the candidacy of Valery Khoroshkovsky, former head of the security service and one of Ukraine’s richest men.

Khoroshkovsky left Ukraine in 2012, and the law prohibits anyone who has not resided in the country for the last five years from running for office. However, his lawyers have argued successfully that he was on an extended business trip.

Some politicians from Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions, once the dominant political force, have re-formed as the Opposition Bloc. This grouping consists of numerous small parties, but the Ilko Kucheriv poll gave it just 3.4 per cent of the predicted vote.

It is also unclear how right-wing Ukrainian nationalist parties will perform, even though many supporters are now fighting in volunteer forces in the east. The Ilko Kucheriv poll gave Svoboda 3.3 per cent and Right Sector just 0.9 per cent.

Voters may be put off by the nationalists’ emphasis on aggressive direct action, for instance the “Trash Bucket Challenge”, in which right-wing activists grab politicians they accuse of corruption and put them into large rubbish bins. Video footage of these incidents has been shared widely on social media,

“We first started the Trash Bucket Challenge in Odessa, to give judges a hint that they aren’t doing their jobs properly,” Right Sector spokesman Borislav Bereza told IWPR. “People took up our initiative, because it’s the only way to fight for justice in Ukraine right now.”

A politicians from the Party of the Regions, Nestor Shufrych, was badly beaten in Odessa last month when he met local voters.

“He was going to fake his own beating, but our activists helped him get a more realistic result,” Bereza joked. “We can’t control people when they deliver justice.”

Many Ukrainians think this mob justice undermines the political credibility of those behind it.

“It looks very attractive on YouTube. I always laugh when they throw officials in rubbish bins, but I wouldn’t want to vote for them, because they arent real politicians,” Oleg Kaplan, a 32-year-old engineer said.

According to a recent poll by market research agency GFK Ukraine, 72 per cent of eligible voters plan to participate in the polls.

Iryna Sedova, 35, a journalist, noted that as she was formerly resident in Crimea, she needed to register elsewhere in order to be able to vote.

“I wasn’t able to do it in the last presidential election, because I didn’t have the time time and the queue was longer than 200 people. The clerks took 15 minutes to register four voters, so half of those waiting were just not included in the lists. I think we can expect the same story in this election.”

Some voters are excited about having a chance to pick new democratic movements. Lyudmila Melnyk, 28, a psychologist from Kiev, said she would be voting for Democratic Alliance, a youth movement with an anti-corruption agenda.

“It’s the first Ukrainian party created by an NGO rather than as a project of oligarchs or state officials,” she said. “It gets money from crowdfunding campaigns and shows how every cent was spent.”

But others, although they plan to vote, say they are disappointed with the political landscape that has emerged since the revolution on Kiev’s Maidan square.

“I haven’t decided on my choice,” said Olexander Vesheleny, 29, a lecturer from Vinnytsya. “The most decent lists – though not ideal – are those of Civic Position, Democratic Alliance, the People’s Front and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. But when we talk about Ukrainian politics, is it really about ideology?”

Oleg Shynkarenko is a Ukrainian journalist based in Kiev. This article was published by IWPR.

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Nigeria: 17 Dead, Dozens Kidnapped In Attack

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At least 17 people were killed and dozens abducted, some of them girls as young as 11, by suspected Boko Haram militants in a series of attacks on Thursday in the central region of Nigeria’s northeast Borno State, a local village chief said on Sunday.

“Seventeen persons were killed by the assailants after last Thursday’s attack on Ndongo community,” Alhaji Shettima Maina, who is in charge of Maffa village about 50 kilometers (30 miles) east of the city of Maiduguri, told journalists in Maiduguri. “We buried the remains of the victims in Maffa on Friday.”

“The insurgents … grabbed young people, boys and girls, from our region,” Maina told the French news agency AFP.

“They took all boys aged 13 and over… and all girls aged 11 and more. According to our information, 30 young people were abducted in the last two days,” Maina said on Sunday.

Another village elder, Mallam Ashiekh Mustapha, confirmed the account of the deaths and abductions.

The attack marks the latest in a series of attacks by suspected Boko Haram militants in northern Nigeria despite the announcement of a cease-fire by the Nigeria government and ongoing negotiations with the group in neighboring Chad.

Maina said his village and areas around it were targeted in nearly daily raids by Boko Haram, prompting many residents to flee to the city of Maiduguri for safety.

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Ron Paul: Once-Peaceful Canada Turns Militaristic; Blowback Follows – OpEd

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In 1968 the government of Canada decided to openly admit Americans seeking to avoid being drafted into the US war on Vietnam. Before, would-be immigrants were technically required to prove that they had been discharged from US military service. This move made it easier for Americans to escape President Johnson’s war machine by heading north.

Although a founding member of NATO, Canada did not join the United States in its war against Vietnam. The Canadian government did not see a conflict 7,000 miles away as vital to Canada’s national interest so Canada pursued its own foreign policy course, independent of the United States.

How the world has changed. Canada’s wise caution about military adventurism even at the height of the Cold War has given way to a Canada of the 21st century literally joined at Washington’s hip and eager to participate in any bombing mission initiated by the D.C. interventionists.

Considering Canada’s peaceful past, the interventionist Canada that has emerged at the end of the Cold War is a genuine disappointment. Who would doubt that today’s Canada would, should a draft be re-instated in the US, send each and every American resister back home to face prison and worse?

As Glenn Greenwald pointed out this past week:

Canada has spent the last 13 years proclaiming itself a nation at war. It actively participated in the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and was an enthusiastic partner in some of the most extremist War on Terror abuses perpetrated by the U.S.

Canada has also enthusiastically joined President Obama’s latest war on Iraq and Syria, pledging to send fighter jets to participate in the bombing of ISIS (and likely many civilians in the process).

But Canada’s wars abroad came back home to Canada last week.

Though horrific, it should not be a complete surprise that Canada found itself hit by blowback last week, as two attacks on Canadian soil left two Canadian military members dead.

Greenwald again points out what few dare to say about the attacks:

Regardless of one’s views on the justifiability of Canada’s lengthy military actions, it’s not the slightest bit surprising or difficult to understand why people who identify with those on the other end of Canadian bombs and bullets would decide to attack the military responsible for that violence.

That is the danger of intervention in other people’s wars thousands of miles away. Those at the other end of foreign bombs – and their surviving family members or anyone who sympathizes with them – have great incentive to seek revenge. This feeling should not be that difficult to understand.

Seeking to understand the motivation of a criminal does not mean that the crime is justified, however. We can still condemn and be appalled by the attacks while realizing that we need to understand the causation and motivation. This is common sense in other criminal matters, but it seems to not apply to attacks such as we saw in Canada last week. Few dare to point out the obvious: Canada’s aggressive foreign policy is creating enemies abroad that are making the country more vulnerable to attack rather than safer.

Predictably, the Canadian government is using the attacks to restrict civil liberties and expand the surveillance state. Like the US PATRIOT Act, Canadian legislation that had been previously proposed to give the government more authority to spy on and aggressively interrogate its citizens has been given a shot in the arm by last week’s attacks.

Unfortunately Canada has unlearned the lesson of 1968: staying out of other people’s wars makes a country more safe; following the endless war policy of its southern neighbor opens Canada up to the ugly side of blowback.

This article was published by The RonPaul Institute.

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Afghan President Visits Saudi Arabia

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(RFE/RL) — Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has visited Saudi Arabia on his first overseas trip since taking office last month.

Local newspapers on October 26 published photographs of Ghani performing a pilgrimage and praying in the western city of Medina.

The official Saudi Press Agency reported that in talks with Crown Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz in the capital, Riyadh, the two sides “reviewed prospects for cooperation between the two brotherly countries.”

In a statement on October 25, Ghani’s office said he would perform Umrah, a pilgrimage to Mecca that can be undertaken at any time of year.

Ghani’s next scheduled trip is to China from October 28-31, where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and potential investors in the rebuilding of Afghanistan.

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Syria: Seven IS Fighters Killed In Ongoing Kobani Clashes

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Seven militants from the Islamic State (IS) have been killed in the ongoing clashes with the forces defending Ain Al-Arab in northern Syria, as the insurgents could not seize control of the Al-Jumruk district in the town, a monitoring group said on Sunday.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in the UK, quoted “reliable sources” as saying that clashes between IS and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units in Souq Al-Hal marketplace in the town (Kobani in Kurdish) continued through midnight on Saturday, as the insurgent group tried to restore dead bodies of its elements.

The fighting coincided with IS shelling of other parts in the town, as similar clashes went on the southern front of Kobani, leaving at least seven IS militants killed. Several fighters from the Units have also been reportedly killed, the Observatory said.

It noted that IS had failed in a fourth attempt to seize Kobani’s Al-Jumruk, as it sought to siege the People’s Protection Units in the town and cut off their supplies.

According to the Observatory’s sources, the Units carried out a “quantum operation” targeting two IS military vehicles at the center of Kobani western countryside. Many have reportedly been killed in the attack.

Meanwhile, the monitoring group said fighting went on between the Syrian opposition forces on one hand and the regime and allied Asian and Arab militants on the other in many governorates.

Original article

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GCC ‘Relatively Upbeat’ Despite Oil Price Plunge

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By Khalil Hanware

Gulf states, which have based their budgets on an oil price of $80 a barrel or less, are likely to remain relatively sanguine about current oil market conditions, say Saudi-based economists and analysts.

Their assessment follows International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde’s recent warning that Gulf states would face budget shortfalls if the recent decline in oil prices persists.

“A sustained decline of $25 a barrel in the oil price would reduce the revenues of most Gulf countries by eight percent of gross domestic product, and put many of them into a fiscal deficit situation,” Lagarde benchmark US oil price has fallen to levels not seen since mid-2012, while in London Brent North Sea crude is around a four-year low.

The price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at around $81 a barrel on Friday while Brent was changing hands for about $86.

Reacting to Lagarde’s remarks, John Sfakianakis of Ashmore Group commented: “Saudi Arabia alone is sitting on foreign reserves which are nearly equal to the size of the country’s entire economy. And unlike most of the developed economies where debt is a structural problem, Saudi Arabia has the second lowest debt to GDP ratio in the world.”

Basil Al-Ghalayini, CEO of BMG Financial Group, said: “If the oil prices continue to decline, the impact on the Saudi budget could be noticeable. If that happens, future budgets will be adjusted but I do not expect the Saudi government to cut down its spending on medium-term infrastructure projects.”

He added: “As for the stock market, usually, oil prices and geopolitical risk are the global factors which do influence traders and investors’ sentiments in Saudi Arabia and the GCC region. Having said that, the fundamentals of the leading companies in Tadawul are still strong.”

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All-Share Index rose 1.5 percent on Sunday even as shares in Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) fell on disappointing third-quarter results.

Other stocks more than offset SABIC’s decline. The Banking and Financial Services index rose 2.25 percent.

Oil prices have fallen by a quarter since June as excess supply and weaker demand create a glut on world markets.

Speaking on current oil market conditions, Sfakianakis added: “What is happening today is healthy for both oil producers and oil consumers. For the oil producers it’s healthy to re-prioritize and apply some fiscal restraint, but always mindful of the infrastructure needs that produce over time higher output multipliers for regional economies.”

He said: “For consumers, lower oil prices should be well-received as there are direct recovery benefits for many developed and emerging economies.”

But Sfakianakis acknowledged that “there is always concern when a country’s total revenues depend almost exclusively on one source which in the case of the Gulf economies is oil. Having said this, most of the Gulf economies have substantial fiscal buffers to support sensible spending for sometime.”

The macro fiscal picture of the Gulf economies today is far better than a decade ago when oil was beginning its upward trend, he pointed out.

Ole Sloth Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said crude oil finally managed to stabilize after its pounding in previous weeks. But not before WTI crude oil once again tested the $80 a barrel level after another strong weekly inventory report from the US.

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Ukraine: Poroshenko Bloc Leading In Elections, 7 Parties To Enter Rada – Exit Polls

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Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s party is in the lead with over 22 percent of votes in the country’s Sunday parliamentary elections, exit polls say. Poroshenko’s bloc is closely followed by two other pro-Europe parties.

A total of seven political parties will be represented in Ukraine’s Parliament – Verkhovnaya Rada.

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc took a winning margin with 23 percent and is closely followed by the People’s Front party – led by Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk – which got over 21 percent, according to international exit polls.

“We can say today that a third of voters supports the president’s course for carrying out reforms for entering the European Union,” said Yuriy Lutsenko, the leader of the Poroshenko Bloc.

After the exit polls were announced, Poroshenko thanked voters for their support and said that coalition talks will start on Monday.

In third place with 14 percent is the newly-formed Self-Help party led by Andrey Sadovuy, the mayor of the major western Ukrainian city of Lvov. Next is the Opposition Bloc headed by former deputy prime minister Yury Boyko with over 7 percent, according to the polls.

The Radical Party lead by nationalist Oleg Lyashko took fifth place in preliminary polls with over 6 percent, and was followed by far-right Svoboda (Freedom) party with less than 6 percent.

The least votes – over 5 percent – were given to the All-Ukrainian Union Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), currently led by Ukraine’s former prime minister Yulia Timoshenko, who is calling for a national referendum on Ukraine joining NATO and imposing sanctions against Russia.

It is no surprise that the three major pro-EU parties would secure the most votes in the Rada elections. However, the unexpected turn is the high percentage of the Opposition Bloc which is linked with the allies of the ousted President Viktor Yanukovich.

The international exit poll was conducted by the joint forces of the Canadian government, the Sociological Group “Rating” (Ukraine), Baltic Surveys (The Gallup Organisation) with the support of the International Republican Institute (IRI).

The Ukrainians voted Sunday to choose from a total of 29 political parties. A party has to pass the threshold of five percent in order to be represented in the Rada. Half of the seats in the 450 member parliament will be filled by the leading blocs, while the other half will be filled by candidates running in single-member constituencies.

However, voting did not take place in the eastern part of the country in the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Authorities of these regions stated they would not go to the polls and plan to hold elections of their own heads and parliaments on November 2.

Russia has supported the eastern republics saying it will accept the results of both elections.

“It’s now necessary to support fledgling ties between Kiev and the People’s Republics of Lugansk and Donetsk and then to start a comprehensive political dialogue with the purpose of finding ways for reaching national accord and conducting constitutional reform with the participation of all regions and political forces,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Verdens Gang (VG) Norwegian newspaper on Saturday.

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Islamic State Militants Fire Iraqi Anbar Province With Chlorine Shells

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Islamic State (IS) militants fired chlorine-filled shells on a residential district in Iraqi’s western Anbar Province, commander of the rapid intervention forces in Anbar, Shaaban Obaidi said Sunday.

“The militants of “Daesh” [the Arabic for Islamic State] fired seven shells filled with chlorine on the residential district in Al Anbar,” the local Khabarnet News Agency quoted Obaidi as saying.

According to the commander, no casualties were registered as a result of the shelling, as residents had left the buildings and some shells did not explode.

In September, Iraqi media said that the IS militants fired the city of Dulu’iyya with shells that contained toxic substances, presumably chlorine.

A week after the news of the incidents in Dulu’iyya was released, Iraqi mass media, referring to a member of Iraq’s parliament, reported that 300 soldiers, who were trapped in the suburbs of Fallujah, were killed by a chlorine attack.

Iraq’s Ministry of Defense stated on September 28 that IS extremists have used chlorine in fougasses several times, but do not currently possess enough chlorine to cause severe destruction.

The IS, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), has been fighting the Syrian government since 2012. In June 2014, the group extended its attacks to northern and western Iraq, declaring a caliphate on the territories over which it had control.

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China’s Rise Is America’s Opportunity – Analysis

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By Thomas Moriarty

Since ISIL has captured America’s attention by its rapid conquest of much of Iraq and Syria, it has been the focus of American diplomacy, if American diplomacy can be said to have a focus. But given America’s ties with East Asia, events in East Asia pose a greater threat, and provide a greater opportunity. America should build up naval strength so as to retain its position as the key diplomatic player in the region.

A recent poll of Chinese and Japanese citizens by Genron/China Daily finds that 53% of the Chinese respondents and 29% of Japanese respondents expect a war between China and Japan. The poll also finds that 93% of Japanese respondents have a negative view of China and that 87% of Chinese respondents have a negative view of Japan. Tensions in the region are high, and a war would have severe economic ramifications around the world.

This tension arises from China’s economic, military and diplomatic rise, and the aggressive way the Chinese have exercised this newfound clout. The Chinese are well aware that their economy is growing much faster than America’s and that America has chosen to decrease its defense, particularly naval, spending, at the same time as Chinese military, particularly naval, spending is rapidly increasing.

As a result of this confidence, China is asserting its territorial and geopolitical ambitions, including in many cases through the unapologetic display of naval power. Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and even Indonesia have faced Chinese escalation of nautical territorial disputes; India and China continue to dispute the ownership of Arunchal Pradesh/South Tibet; and China continues to claim the entire nation of Taiwan as Chinese territory. Increasing Chinese naval power and geopolitical ambition present a major and destabilizing threat.

As is wont to happen when a country accrues power and uses it against its neighbors, neighboring states have moved to resist. Unsurprisingly, a regional naval arms race is underway. China and India are both developing aircraft carrier fleets; Vietnam is upgrading its navy and other states in the region are purchasing boats and modernizing their fleets.

Most states concerned by Chinese aggression have moved to increase their naval strength. Australia has built a new type of LHD (Landing Helicopter Dock) ship, and Japan has built a flat-topped destroyer that some speculate could be used to launch aircraft. Japan, Australia and India have also increased their military cooperation with each other and their naval aid to less powerful states such as Vietnam and the Philippines. Especially notable are the recent Japanese agreements with India regarding economic, diplomatic and nuclear cooperation.

We now come to the opportunity. All the regional powers know that America has significant economic and diplomatic interests in the region which are best served by regional peace and stability. The countries under Chinese threat would be reassured by an increased American military presence in the region. This would represent a credible commitment by America to the safety and security of countries under Chinese threat. The Obama administration’s “rebalance to Asia” might have had this effect but deep defense budget cuts have neutralized it.

Taken together, America and those countries under American protection from China would be vastly more powerful than China. Without American protection, however, states in the region would be less powerful than China. They thus need American diplomatic and military support.

Critically, though, America would not be entering into an anti-China coalition analogous to the Cold War containment of the Soviet Union. America has deep, long-standing and extremely important interests in its relationship with China as well. Rather, America would re-establish itself as an influential arbiter of regional disputes. Since American strength would be necessary to prevent China from attaining its goals in regional disputes, America, by either supporting or not supporting China’s adversary in the dispute, could choose whether China would or would not attain its ends. Thus, China would also come to depend on America in securing its interests in the region.

Such a solution would not be new. When Egypt attacked Israel in 1973, America made itself necessary to the security and interests of both Egypt and Israel, first by resupplying Israel, thus preventing an Egyptian victory, and then by using Israel’s resultant position of dependence on the United States to make Israel cease its counteroffensive, which threatened the survival of the Egyptian military. America thereby became the arbiter of disputes in the region, sidelining the Soviet Union.

America can strengthen its position as the arbiter of disputes in East Asia with naval power. Aside from the territorial conflict with India, all the potential disputes are on the water and a naval arms race is underway. America has the most skilled and powerful navy in the world, with unparalleled experience dealing with operations involving multiple militaries, including those of some nations potentially in conflict with China. America thus has the capability to create the necessary balance of power to become the arbiter of disputes.

For America to regain this position, the American commitment must be credible. While the United States Navy is currently much more powerful in the Pacific than the Chinese Navy, China is rapidly arming to close the gap, while the United States is allowing its navy to wither away at an alarming rate, from 594 ships in 1987 to 289 today, reducing our ability to dispatch forces where they are needed around the globe. Until America reverses that erosion, our naval power will be unreliable, and insufficient to enable America to settle regional disputes. In the absence of credible American naval force, American statements about events in East Asia have as much credibility as the bark of a toothless dog. To be relevant, we must have teeth.

Thomas Moriarty is a writer living in New York City. This article was published by Hudson Institute.

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Iran: 350th Anniversary Of Vank Cathedral

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By Firouzeh Mirrazavi

A ceremony was held in Isfahan capital city on Monday (20th October, 2014) to mark the 350th anniversary of construction of the Holy Savior Cathedral also known as Vank Cathedral. Vank Cathedral, also known as the Church of the Saintly Sisters, is the most visited cathedral in Isfahan. Vank means “cathedral” in the Armenian language. The ceremony was attended by Armenian Church Leader His Holiness Aram I, Archbishop of Isfahan province and southern parts of Iran Babken Charian and a group of Isfahan’s Armenian residents and officials. During the service, Archbishop Charian recited Prayers of Lament and holy bread was distributed among worshipers.

Vank Cathedral, Armenian Quarter, Esfahan, Iran. Photo by Mike Gadd, Wikipedia Commons.

Vank Cathedral, Armenian Quarter, Esfahan, Iran. Photo by Mike Gadd, Wikipedia Commons.

Following the Ottoman war of 1603-1605, Armenians began to arrive in Iran in search of a new life under the Safavid King Shah Abbas I. Shah Abbas I, who settled tens of thousands of them in the Iranian provinces south of Aras River, also relocated Armenians, who had fled from the Ottoman massacre in Nakhchivan to Iran.

Nakhchivan suffered a lot during the 14th to 18th century wars between Persia and the Ottoman Empire. The city fell under Safavid rule in the 16th century. In 1604, when Shah Abbas I realized that the lands of Nakhchivan and its surrounding areas might fall into Ottoman hands, he decided to force the entire Muslim, Jewish and Armenian population of the city to leave their homes and move to Iran. The Armenian immigrants settled in Isfahan, the capital of the Safavid Dynasty, and populated the city’s New Jolfa district, which was named after their original homeland in today’s Azerbaijan Republic.

Upon entering Iran, Armenian refugees started building churches and monasteries to continue their religious activities in their new home. The first monastery in Jolfa was built in 1606 and included a little church called Amna Perkich, which means ‘All Healing.’ The little church was later expanded and turned into the magnificently designed Vank Cathedral, which was built 50 years later under the supervision of Archbishop David. One of the largest and most beautiful churches of Iran, the cathedral was completed in 1664. It includes a bell-tower, built in 1702, a printing press, founded by Bishop Khachatoor, a library established in 1884, and a museum opened in 1905.

The architecture of the building is a mixture of the 17th-century Safavid style with high arches and an Islamic-style dome. The cathedral has greatly influenced the architecture and decorative treatment of many churches in Iran and the Mesopotamian region. The main entrance of the cathedral is a large wooden door through which visitors enter the courtyard of the building. Upon entering the courtyard, one encounters two rooms that were once used as administrative offices, which helped Armenians process their paperwork. A large freestanding belfry stands in the cathedral courtyard and towers over the graves of Orthodox and Protestant Christians who have been buried along the wall before the entrance. Built 38 years after the main structure, the belfry leads into the nave.

On the right side of the belfry there is a large blue inscription surrounded by crucifix stones. The stones have been collected from the ruined churches of the Jolfa quarter. On a raised area to the left, a memorial has been set up in memory of the victims of the Ottoman massacre. Every year on April 23 Armenians gather by the memorial to light candles in honor of their martyrs. At a corner of the cathedral’s courtyard, rooms and halls have been built to accommodate guests, the Isfahan archbishop and his retinue, as well as other Armenian religious authorities in Iran. Across the courtyard and facing the cathedral is a building, which houses the Vank library and museum.

The library contains more than 700 manuscripts and hard-to-find sources on Armenian and medieval European languages and arts. The Vank museum houses unique and priceless collections of various types of items gathered from across the Armenian world. Built in 1871, the museum contains numerous objects related to the history of the cathedral and the Armenian community of Isfahan, including the 1606 edict of Shah Abbas I establishing New Jolfa and prohibiting interference with, or the persecution of, Armenians and their property and affairs in the district. Exquisite Bibles are also part of the museum’s dazzling collection. A seven-gram bible displayed at the museum is believed by some to be the world’s smallest written text in seven languages.

Safavid costumes, tapestries, European paintings brought back by Armenian merchants, embroideries and other valuable items from the Iranian-Armenian trading heritage are also part of the museum’s unique archive. The Vank museum also houses an extensive collection of photographs, maps, and Turkish documents related to the 1915 massacre of Armenians by Ottoman kings. Vestments, monstrances, chalices and other sacramental objects have also been displayed at the museum.

The Vank printing house is known as the first of its kind in Iran and the Middle East. The first book published at Vank was about the lives of Armenian priests and monks, a few prints of which are now kept at the Vank museum. The early printing machine, which was built by Bishop Khachatoor, was replaced by a new one brought from Amsterdam in 1647. Later in 1844, an Armenian resident of Jolfa brought a printing machine from Europe, which is also housed at Vank Museum. The first book printed by the machine was the Psalms of David, which is now kept at Oxford’s Bodleian Library.

The interior of the Vank Cathedral. Photo by ZhuPix, Wikipedia Commons.

The interior of the Vank Cathedral. Photo by ZhuPix, Wikipedia Commons.

The dun-colored brick exterior of the cathedral gives way to a stunning combination of Persian tiles, Byzantine gold and European-style frescos inside. The modern and plain exterior has a striking contrast with its gloriously decorated interior. The entrance ceiling is adorned with floral motifs and the top of the walls are covered with murals depicting events from the life of Jesus. The interior is adorned with paintings, gilded carvings and eye-catching tilework and the pendentives bear painted images of a cherub’s head surrounded by folded wings. On the northern wall of the cathedral paintings of Judgment Day can be seen with heaven depicted above and hell below. The bottom parts of the interior walls are covered with paintings depicting Armenians being tortured by the Ottoman Turks. The double-layer brick dome is beautifully gilded and adorned with paintings and floral patters in its azure interior.

The paintings depict the Biblical story of the creation of the universe and man’s expulsion from Eden. Eight windows surround the dome with biblical scenes painted between them. The creation of Adam and Eve, eating the forbidden fruit and the death of Able are among the stories painted between the windows. The narthex is also adorned with four paintings, which are surrounded with floral patterns and show tortures inflicted upon holy figures. The birth of Jesus, the Last Supper, the crucifixion of Jesus and the Ascension of Jesus are also among the biblical stories depicted in the paintings inside the cathedral. The paintings have been inspired by both old and new testaments and have been painted by Armenian masters and three monks, namely; Havans, Stepanus and Minas.

After the death of Shah Abbas I, his successor Shah Abbas II also paid close attention to Armenians and New Jolfa, which is located on the banks of the Zayandeh River and still houses a large part of the Iranian-Armenian community.

Iran’s Armenian community grew in number as until 1933 immigrants and refugees continued to flock to Iran from the Soviet Union. They built churches, schools and various cultural, artistic and sports centers across the country and eventually became Iran’s largest Christian community. Today, Iranian-Armenians have two seats in the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) and are the only minority with official observing status in the country’s Guardian and Expediency Councils. Armenians also publish books, journals, periodicals, and newspapers, including the daily Alik. Many Armenians served in the Iranian army, and many died in action during the Iran–Iraq War. Due to Iran-Iraq War the number of Iran’s 250,000 Armenians further decreased to its current 150,000. Today in Iran there are about 120,000 – 150,000 Armenians left. Half of which live in the Tehran area. A quarter live in Isfahan, and the other quarter is concentrated in Northwestern Iran or Iranian Azarbaijan. In addition to having their own churches and clubs, Armenians of Iran are one of the few linguistic minorities in Iran with their own schools.

Firouzeh Mirrazavi
Deputy Editor of Iran Review

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Bosnia And Herzegovina And XXI Century: Madness Of Pre- And Post Election – Essay

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I’d like to present a thesis, my dear Professor, that has haunted me for a long time and I do not want to go public with it until I hear your opinion. Can I? And when could you not do that, my student!? I heard the echo of own ego that impatiently expected elaboration on the subject … In fact, I have a feeling that this was all prepared in planned manner within this way because:

  • Thirty years ago, several future leaders of all local nations met secretly preparing forth-coming, within the desire to financially ensure themselves and their little minions around them.
  • The poisoned beautiful water source from which we drank purified water inspired with our bright future.
  • They split apart brothers per soil/ground and divided themselves by blood and nations by killing Slav’s nation being within us.
  • And now trying to insist on the separation of what has been already divided.

Well said. It is a thesis for thinking, but as you have said: they insist on the separation of what has been already divided! … I’m going with an antithesis for you: you are dealing with the past and feed yourself with the present, but do not have a vision for the future! How to create a valid assumption of the future, progress-oriented if you defend the thesis of this nature in the simple present?

I was expecting this question, dear Professor. And the answer is:

  • Introduce control of elected ones. After being posted to the function regardless of the location and size of the same, every three months, do the checking of the promised, done and implemented.
  • If you are not satisfied, penalty points (33 of them for every three months) goes to their Party and when the party fulfill a quota of 99 penalty points, losing place that won on the elections and on its place comes next Party by the number of votes and again everything comes under the control .
  • Regardless of whether it’s Blue, Green or Red Party, in front of the law and justice all are the same – all responsible – all to be checked.

And only then will we be able to expect that somewhere and somehow, at least I think so, in 2020, create a presumption that the people elected by the people (or more – peoples) for the people (or more-people) becomes to be utility service for the benefit of the people of the same ethnic group (or more of them-peoples). Because of the people (or more- peoples) of itself.

Beautiful talk from your side. And how to do it:

  • In a country where it knows very well the price of each and every service.
  • In a country where the prestige is to cheat yourself and then the other ones.
  • In a country where it is most profitable to be a bigot and a hypocrite.
  • In a country where ignorance is a measure of knowledge and not vice versa.
  • In a country where…

Enough, my Professor! You think that I don’t know that. I do know that, my friend, but I’m trying to find an alternative to the hither hopelessness. And…

a) If every one of us, at least try to that, we would create presumptions for better living conditions in these areas.

b) When and if any of us would at least see himself/herself in this hopelessness as a person with specified target that goes towards common good.

c) If every one of us looked at his neighbor, and said to himself/herself that this country he/she only borrowed from future generations and not usurped for all times.

d) If every one of us …..

Now you’ve overdone it, stopped my Professor. For a moment, he made a pause and then said something that will remain forever as the measure of all things here and now:

I do not want to run away from the truth, just like you, but to create the presumptions for all that you are talking about, you must do the following:

  • Rule of law uber alles;
  • Democracy as a prerequisite against autocratic vision of the past, present and future;
  • A man identified as being in words HOW DOES HE WORK AND LIVING rather than WHAT IS HIS/HER NAME AND NATIONALITY;
  • Two things must be done within something what is called life: DIE AND PAY TAXES.

I felt silent for a moment. Then I slid my hand into my pocket and pulled out an unreported gun leftover from the war (and whom is not!) and in cold blood I aimed in his direction. What are you doing? in astonishment cried the Professor. Nothing, except I am creating presumptions. You do not need me anymore, old chap, and I tried to throw a cold drum / gun into the face of my classmate.

I heard one shot. And then come the lights and it darkens….

Presumption? Presumptions I leave to you, dear readers, because neither teachers nor students exist any more.

On behalf of the common good.
Centered towards individual.
That’s enough.
And too much.
And nothing has been, cannot be and will not be done.
Because of the madness that rules within our areas.
Madness of exclusion, ignorance and hatred.
I’m leaving, but not like before.
This time I am leaving…forever.

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