Most of the concerns about climate change have focused on the amount of greenhouse gases that have been released into the atmosphere.

But in a new study published in Science, a group of Rutgers researchers have found that circulation of the ocean plays an equally important role in regulating the earth’s climate.

In their study, the researchers say the major cooling of Earth and continental ice build-up in the Northern Hemisphere 2.7 million years ago coincided with a shift in the circulation of the ocean – which pulls in heat and carbon dioxide in the Atlantic and moves them through the deep ocean from north to south until it’s released in the Pacific.

The ocean conveyor system, Rutgers scientists believe, changed at the same time as a major expansion in the volume of the glaciers in the northern hemisphere as well as a substantial fall in sea levels. It was the Antarctic ice, they argue, that cut off heat exchange at the ocean’s surface and forced it into deep water. They believe this caused global climate change at that time, not carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

“We argue that it was the establishment of the modern deep ocean circulation – the ocean conveyor – about 2.7 million years ago, and not a major change in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere that triggered an expansion of the ice sheets in the northern hemisphere,” says Stella Woodard, lead author and a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences. Their findings, based on ocean sediment core samples between 2.5 million to 3.3 million years old, provide scientists with a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of climate change today.

The study shows that changes in heat distribution between the ocean basins is important for understanding future climate change. However, scientists can’t predict precisely what effect the carbon dioxide currently being pulled into the ocean from the atmosphere will have on climate. Still, they argue that since more carbon dioxide has been released in the past 200 years than any recent period in geological history, interactions between carbon dioxide, temperature changes and precipitation, and ocean circulation will result in profound changes.

Scientists believe that the different pattern of deep ocean circulation was responsible for the elevated temperatures 3 million years ago when the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was arguably what it is now and the temperature was 4 degree Fahrenheit higher. They say the formation of the ocean conveyor cooled the earth and created the climate we live in now.

“Our study suggests that changes in the storage of heat in the deep ocean could be as important to climate change as other hypotheses – tectonic activity or a drop in the carbon dioxide level – and likely led to one of the major climate transitions of the past 30 million years,” says Yair Rosenthal, co-author and professor of marine and coastal sciences at Rutgers

The paper’s co-authors are Woodard, Rosenthal, Kenneth Miller and James Wright, both professors of earth and planetary sciences at Rutgers; Beverly Chiu, a Rutgers undergraduate majoring in earth and planetary sciences; and Kira Lawrence, associate professor of geology at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania.

The post Past Climate Change Was Caused By Ocean, Not Just Atmosphere appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(EurActiv) — At a summit meeting in Brussels on Friday (24 October), EU leaders asked the European Commission to come up with a plan for better coordinating economic policies.

With a troubled European economy, and Germany’s reluctance to invest more in the eurozone, EU leaders agreed to work on a better governance structure, in order to coordinate actions that would boost growth in the 28 country bloc.

“We still have fairly big economic challenges such as unemployment. We also need to work for a better inflation rate,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“By December, we will hear from the Commission what kind of contributions we should make to the investment programme. We want proposals to be submitted so that we can better coordinate policies in the eurozone,” Merkel added, noting she has always been in favour of closer economic coordination.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned EU leaders that more needs to be done in order to avoid a return to recession, and asked them to come up with a calendar for structural reform by December.

Hinting to Germany, Draghi insisted that those countries with the requisite resources should consider stimulating demand by investing more.

“Draghi has pointed out the importance of structural reforms and creating right conditions for investment,” said Merkel.

EU leaders repeatedly said throughout the day that fiscal discipline has to go hand in hand with more investment to boost growth.

Draghi presented slides depicting the economic situation in the euro area. Those showing the situation of member states, specifically on government debt and deficit, were divided into three categories.

The countries with debt under 60% are Estonia, Luxembourg, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Finland.

The countries with debt between 60% and 90% are the Netherlands, Malta, Slovenia,Germany and Austria.

The third category of countries with debt over 90% are Spain, France, Cyprus, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Greece (174.9%).

On government deficits, the countries under 2% are Luxembourg, Germany, Estonia, Austria, Latvia, the Netherlands.

Those between 2% and 3% are Finland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Malta, Italy and Belgium. Those with deficits over 3% are France, Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, Ireland and Spain.

Regarding real GDP per capita, the slides show a widening gap between the US and the eurozone, unfavourable to the bloc of 17 countries.

Confident couple

The European Commission has asked France for more information on its 2015 budget plan, French President François Hollande said after the summit. However, he ruled out making bigger savings than the unprecedented €21 billion already planned.

France is cutting its public deficit less quickly than promised to EU partners, raising the chances that the European Commission will reject its 2015 budget and ask for amendments.

Hollande’s Socialist government is wary of trying to squeeze more savings out of the budget on the grounds that tougher belt-tightening could undermine a fragile economic recovery.

Italy said it could cut its budget deficit slightly more than planned next year, after the European Commission request for clarification.

“We’re discussing one, two billion euros” in further cuts, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said. “The problem of €2 billion that could in theory be needed is truly a small effort” for Italy, he said.

Renzi’s government published earlier on Thursday a letter sent by the European Commission saying there was a “significant deviation” in next year’s draft budget from the debt-cutting pledges it had previously made to the EU.

Asked by journalists after the summit about the delicate situation of Italy and France, Commission President José Manuel Barroso said that he is in favour of more flexibility with the EU budget, including through an “investment clause”, but it was the EU ministers of economy and finance who had “killed” this proposal.

“We are in contact with the various governments, consultations at technical level are ongoing, to see what are their last positions concerning the draft budgets. What the Commission needs to check before the end of the month is not if the budget is perfectly OK, but if there are or not particularly serious deviations [from the EU rules].”

The post France And Italy Promise To Reform, EU Leaders Vow Closer Economic Coordination appeared first on Eurasia Review.

For Jammu and Kashmir, the Line of Control (LoC) is not only a symbol of state interference in social life, but also an emotional object representing the importance of cross-border alliances. In this sense, areas along the LoC represent a social structure where state-owned military paraphernalia is considered a symbol of authority, not protection.

By Mazhar Iqbal

The Line of Control (LoC) is a dotted line on the map of South Asia that bisects the Jammu and Kashmir region, representing its contested status between India and Pakistan. About 800 kilometers long, the LoC, which is also known as the Ceasefire Line, originates from the river Tawi near Jammu and ends at the snow-clapped mountains in Kargil.

It’s amongst one of the most heavily-militarized separation barriers in the world. On the ground, it’s a fenced boundary entangled with several-meters-high, double-rowed barbed wire passing through valleys and hillocks, mountains and rivulets. Apart from the barbed wire, the Indian military has installed floodlights, surveillance equipment, seismic imaging devices and audio sensors to monitor any movement in the area. These gadgets are in addition to a round-the-clock patrol maintained by Indian Border Security Force (BSF) personnel.

In last few weeks, the inviolability of the LoC has been questioned several times. A total of nine Pakistani and eight Indian civilians have reportedly been killed in a fresh escalation of tension on this border. Historically, it’s a soldier’s nightmare and a civilian’s death trap. The blotted history of mistrust and suspicion between India and Pakistan – marked by poisonous verbosity of hostile politicians and supported by jingoistic national media – has proved itself to be much stronger than the ceasefire agreements or the lofty ideal of peaceful co-existence.

Around the world, separation barriers are constructed to limit the movement of people across a region or to separate two populations. The current map of the world depicts an alarming increase in these fences, though a few of them are strategically important. Jammu and Kashmir’s split is deemed to be a nuclear flashpoint. Pakistan and India are nuclear states.

The installation of a security barricade is stimulated by a sense of protection. Yet the human implication in a conflict-ridden area is irreparable. The civilian population was there before the military barrier was installed. Though a major part of the LoC is covered by forest blocks and hilly terrain and runs through a mountainous region, some of its locations present a typical picture of division of cultivable land; a peasant’s house in India and his arable land in Pakistan.

Political impulsiveness, instability and the mercurial nature of geo-political relations amongst neighboring states in the whole South Asian region has always proved to be a catalyst for increased tension on the LoC. The temperament of forces deployed here is guided and goaded by political happenings in the region. In recent months, there has been a growing debate in Pakistan that the instability of the country’s political setup is causing disturbance along the LoC.

However, there is another explanation in Pakistan that the Indian government is working behind the scenes to implement its agenda of downsizing the role of separatist elements in electoral politics of the disputed region. Also, an atmosphere of aggressiveness can divert public outcry from administrative failure in the aftermath of a natural disaster and can prove productive to fulfil the political ambitions vis-à-vis the so-called Mission 44. Mission 44 is a stated electoral agenda of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to form the next government in Jammu & Kashmir. The BJP has never been able to independently form the government and has traditionally been considered a negligible political force.

The Indian locus on fortifying an intra-state border is in contradiction with its territorial claims. India has historically claimed a territorial right over the entire state, whereas an expenditure of millions of dollars to erect a short-term borderline within the state implies that the current Indian government is willing to withdraw its right on the other part of the state, which is under Pakistan’s administration. Pakistan’s stated position on the LoC is that the border in Jammu and Kashmir is un-demarcated and any measure to alter its status or to erect permanent obstacles is a direct violation of India’s international obligations.

Perhaps the challenge to establishing India’s authority over the whole of Jammu and Kashmir is bigger than the BJP’s speculations. It is a vibrant society with an established history of resistance against coercion. Over one billion people simply can’t put barricades alongside their courtyards. Hundreds of villages and grazing areas of inhabitants of those villages have virtually been traversed by the LoC.

Despite the explosive nature of the military zone, Kashmir grazers habitually take their cattle to farmlands where they are always on mercy of rival forces. A fence can only make access of annoying elements difficult, but not impossible. Putting barricades in peoples’ pastures, without asking them, can never be a welcome move.

For Kashmiris, the LoC is not only a symbol of state interference in social life, but also an emotional object representing the importance of cross-border alliances. In this sense, the areas along the LoC represent a social structure where state-owned military paraphernalia is considered a symbol of authority, not protection.

The LoC iconizes the state as an indeterminate sovereign power that has a merciless business of showing power to its neighbor upon the bodies and souls of its subjects. The very notion of showing strength to neighbours has characteristically shaped the underlying fabric of India-Pakistan relations. A neighbourhood is no longer a place where charity begins; it’s an abandoned farmland, a deserted house or a dwelling of devils and demons.

Mazhar Iqbal is a peace and human rights activist and member of Press for Peace.

Press For Peace is a member of the Global Coalition for Conflict Transformation, comprised of organizations committed to upholding and implementing the Principles of Conflict Transformation.

The post Jammu And Kashmir: A Dotted Line And A Blotted History – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Gulf states are stepping up their awareness campaigns to alert young people about the dangers of extremism, said Kuwait’s Information Minister Sheikh Salman Al-Hamoud Al-Sabah.

He said the new ‘Gulf Awareness’ programs would adopt a different approach with the aims of moving youth away from extremist and harmful views.

Al-Sabah’s remarks followed a meeting of the Gulf information ministers that concluded in Kuwait recently.

The meeting discussed plans for combating extremism.

Terrorism in the media has become a global phenomenon, he said.

A recent meeting of interior ministers of the European Union has stressed the need to boost monitoring mechanisms against media networking sites that support terrorism, he pointed out.

Gulf authorities will support educational and media awareness campaigns to prevent terrorist ideologies and extremist thoughts from spreading across the Internet via social networking sites.

GCC countries plan to launch educational and media awareness campaigns that challenge terrorist ideologies, and defuse extremism that is today spreading across the Internet through social networking sites.

While ruling out any censorship measures on social networking sites, the minister said GCC telecommunication companies would be required to develop accurate monitoring systems.

He said the conditions in the region have called for reviewing priorities and focusing on the phenomenon of extremism.

According to Al-Sabah, the ministers of information agreed during their recent meeting in Kuwait to set out new plans for media awareness campaigns as well as regulatory measures to monitor and review any developments.

During the meeting, the GCC ministers also agreed to a proposal submitted by the Saudi cultural minister to “employ awareness and educational measures to challenge extremist and terror-related thoughts, an issue that has been threatening all members of the Gulf society.”

The post GCC Vows Tough Steps To Curb ‘Media Extremism’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Grand Mufti Abdul Aziz Al-Asheikh has issued a fatwa declaring the issuing and receiving of fraudulent medical sick leave certificates as sinful behavior.

The grand mufti was reported as saying in the local media recently that medical professionals who issue the certificates and workers requesting them are sinners. These bogus reports result in businesses losing money, he was quoted as saying.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (Nazaha) has confirmed it received the fatwa on the matter from the grand mufti dated Sept. 7 this year.

The fatwa came in response to the commission’s request for an opinion from the mufti on the issue.

The Standing Committee for Scientific Research and Ifta has confirmed it is illegal to grant a medical report for sick leave if the person is not sick, or not ill enough, to be granted leave. The fatwa described the act as sinful and impermissible.

The Nazaha said it hopes the fatwa would raise awareness about the issue and prevent workers from indulging in illegal and corrupt acts.

The post Grand Mufti: Bogus Sick Leaves Are Sinful appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Alsir Sidahmed

It is no longer a issue of whispering in the corridors of the oil industry. It is now part of public debate. Is Saudi Arabia launching an oil price war in tandem with the US to undermine or at least weaken energy dependent adversaries Russia and Iran?

The latest to join this discussion is the notable New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who wrote on Oct. 14 under the headline “Pump War?”

“One can’t say for sure whether the American-Saudi oil alliance is deliberate or a coincidence of interests, but, if it is explicit, then clearly we’re trying to do to President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exactly what the American and Saudi Arabia did to the last leaders of the Soviet Union: pump them to death — bankrupt them by bringing down the price of oil.”

It is no surprise that people try always to find a link between oil and politics.

After all the black gold got its description as a strategic commodity because more than 100 years ago, in 1911 to be exact, then minister of Britain’s admiralty young Winston Churchill made a remarkable decision to shift from coal to oil as a source of energy.

That decision was seen instrumental in securing victory for the Allies as well as securing the oil politico-economic affinity.

It was the Arab-Israeli war of 1973 and its fallout by the Arab oil embargo, then the Iranian revolution that have consolidated the relationship between oil and politics. Even the 1986 oil price war was given a political dimension and was seen as playing a considerable role in the collapse of the Soviet Union three years later.

However, the central and crucial point to remember is that in both cases now and back in 1986 the drop in oil prices is and was in fact a reaction to market realities and not a deliberate action to achieve certain political ends.

It was a different market then in 1986, when OPEC was adopting a strategy of defending an official bench market price.

Within that strategy, the Kingdom was given the role of the swing producer, who within 5 million barrels per day (bpd) allocation was to raise and reduce its output according to market needs. But the real performance showed that other OPEC members were not committed to their respective quotas. As a result the kingdom saw its market share dwindling to little over 2 million bpd, or less than what Britain used to pump then out of the North Sea.

That was the prime motive that pushed Riyadh to drop its commitment to the official OPEC price, adopt a more flexible and lucrative netback selling arrangement to attract customers and restore its market share.

That shift toward market share was adopted by the rest of OPEC, which led eventually and over time to double the organization’s market share to an average of 30 million bpd currently from 16 million bpd then.

The other significant shift was that the kingdom no longer plays officially the role of the swing producer, though it continues to raise its production and lower it as it sees fit according to a Riyadh sovereign decision, not an OPEC one.

Last year for instance it raised its production to record high of 10 million bpd, and then reduced it to 9.7 million bpd currently according to industry estimates.

Over the years the Kingdom has developed three main goals: the first was to adopt moderate pricing system that is in line with market realities with the goal of making consumers use oil as long as possible given the abundance of oil in the Kingdom’s reserves; also to have a spare production capacity ranging between 1-2 million bpd to compensate for any supply shortage and enhance the Kingdom’s strategic importance and finally to have enough income to enable it meet its domestic and foreign commitments and invest in maintaining and expanding its oil industry.

Though relationship between oil and politics can’t be ruled out completely, but Riyadh has made it very clear in number of occasions that it prefers separating the two. In fact OPEC meetings in the past few years became more like those conducted by private businesses in terms of its focus, and the short time it takes to make a decision in a one day meeting.

Like what happened back in 1986, this time also the drop in oil price is due to oversupply and the emphasis of Riyadh on its market share more than on defending any price, which it sees to reflect market realities.

The oversupply is due mainly to two things more production is coming from OPEC members despite the security and political instability plaguing some of OPEC countries, while the other is coming from a new source: that is the US and its fracturing technology that managed to raise US domestic production of oil and gas to its highest level in 28 years.

There are some reports to suggest that by the end of this month total US domestic production of oil and liquids will place the US is the biggest producer ahead of both the Kingdom and Russia.
This represents a qualitative shift that was made possible by the price of oil exceeding $80 a barrel, which was seen as a reasonable price that allows for making fracturing commercially viable.

According to this calculation even the US will be hurt if the oil price is to drop below $70 a barrel and may see its shale oil bonanza comes to an end. If history is any guide, one of those who urged Riyadh to call off the oil price war back in 1986 came from the US, who saw that many of its oil producing states had suffered by the steep drop then of oil prices.

The disaster was not only in the financial bleeding of those oil producing states, but many of them have what was known as stripper wells that bump between 5, 000 — 10, 000 bpd. And if such wells are closed because of the low prices, they would never be opened again.

Email: asidahmed@hotmail.com

The post The ‘Politics’ Behind Oil Price Fall – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Linked to “Islamic Extremism” says the headline in the New York Times.

Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, Martin Rouleau-Couture, Alton Nolen, Mohammad Ali Baryalei, Mehdi Nemmouche, Michael Adebolajo, Mohammed Merah, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad — all Muslims in the West, all involved in deadly attacks, all linked to Islamic extremism. The link is surely clear-cut, right?

And now comes the latest on the list:

New York Daily News reports: A man armed with a hatchet who attacked a group of rookie cops on a Queens street, critically injuring one, was shot dead by the officers on Thursday afternoon, and a female bystander was hit by an errant round.

Police are investigating the possibility that the attacker killed on a rainswept shopping corridor, identified by police sources as Zale Thompson, 32, had links to terrorism. A Zale Thompson on Facebook is pictured wearing a keffiyeh and had a recent terrorism-related conversation with one of his Facebook friends, according to a police source.

Radio Free America and the New York Daily News, please take note: The man in the photo is not Zale Thompson and he’s not wearing a keffiyeh.

The photo is of a Tuareg Berber warrior and was taken somewhere in the Sahara in the nineteenth century. His head garment is called a tagelmust which provides essential protection for those living in a region subject to frequent sand storms. The Arabic text is the Sūrat al-Fātiḥah, the first chapter of the Quran.

CNN reports: Authorities are looking to see if the unprovoked attack, in the New York borough of Queens, is tied to recent calls by radicals to attack military and police officers, law enforcement officials say.

Asked about a possible connection to terrorism, Bratton said, “There is nothing we know as of this time that would indicate that were the case. I think certainly the heightened concern is relative to that type of assault based on what just happened in Canada.”

On Wednesday, Cpl. Nathan Cirillo was shot and killed as he stood guard at Canada’s National War Memorial before shots erupted in the halls of the country’s Parliament minutes later.

The Ottawa gunman had “connections” to jihadists in Canada who shared a radical Islamist ideology, including at least one who went overseas to fight in Syria, multiple U.S. sources told CNN on Thursday.

Connections, ties, links — human beings have an insatiable need to try and understand how things fit together; how to discern coherence when confronted by chaos. This drive is at the core of the creative impulse. Without it there would be no science or art.

At the same time, discovery is more popular than exploration. Most people would rather have answers than be left with questions.

When with disturbing frequency on the relatively peaceful streets of Western cities, men identified as Muslims who appear to be acting alone, attack soldiers and police officers, it’s hard to avoid seeing these acts of brutality all being connected. But there are multiple problems in jumping to this conclusion.

Firstly, in attempting to identify a trend there is always the risk that the imputed trend is actually a function of the act of labeling. The trend might be more of a construction than a discovery.

How many isolated incidents need to occur before they are seen as connected? That determination is subjective, often arbitrary and can easily be affected by whatever happen to be the competing news stories of the day.

Consider for instance something that threatens the lives of all Americans — a threat far greater than that posed by terrorism.

Physicians for Social Responsibility note: “About 6% of cancer deaths per year — 34,000 deaths annually — are directly linked to occupational and environmental exposures to known, specific carcinogens.”

Yet when legal efforts are made to hold the manufacturers of those carcinogens responsible for any of those deaths, the legal process most often leans in favor of commercial interests. Epidemiologists have to painstakingly document all the evidence that clusters of cancer cases can indeed be linked to an industrial polluter before courts are persuaded that the connection is irrefutable and criminal responsibility has been proved.

Some connections are scientifically established years before they become legally accepted.

It’s one thing for an individual to be tied to Islamic extremism because they are in direct communication with members of organizations such as ISIS or al Qaeda, but what if they are merely inspired by such groups?

If the ties have been formed and sustained purely through social media, mainstream media, and the popular obsessions of a particular era, then for the individuals listed above, their links to Twitter and Fox News, for instance, played just as instrumental role in their radicalization as the ideology to which their actions are being ascribed.

Moreover, in spite of the fact that the media is attached to one narrative — a narrative that sells well because it exploits popular xenophobic fears — another link that might be even more important than ideology is the psychology of conversion.

Most of these men converted to Islam and religious conversions of any kind are fraught with psychological risks.

The convert invariably has a much deeper personal investment in the object of their faith than someone for whom their religion was simply a dimension of their upbringing. The convert is always more self-conscious about their religious identity.

This might make the convert more devout, but often it also unleashes a vindictive self-righteousness. A fractured ego can be empowered by an acquired religious authority that purges self-doubt and provides a zealous sense of purpose. Those who once felt downtrodden and demeaned may decide that they are going to teach the world to show them respect after having concluded that with their new-found faith they have God on their side.

This says much more about the psycho-dynamics of conversion than it says anything about the nature of Islam.

That Zale Thompson, having been kicked out of the U.S. Navy, chose the image of an African warrior as his avatar on Facebook, probably says more about his experiences as an African-American and a desire to identify with men who once conquered Spain rather than those who were once enslaved, than it says about the extent of ISIS’s influence.

Even though 9/11 taught about the importance of “connecting the dots,” it’s equally important not to connect too many dots or the wrong dots.

The post In The West A Growing List Of Attacks, Linked To What? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In this week’s address, the President discussed the measures we are taking to respond to Ebola cases at home, while containing the epidemic at its source in West Africa. This week we continued to focus on domestic preparedness, with the creation of new CDC guidelines and the announcement of new travel measures ensuring all travelers from the three affected countries are directed to and screened at one of five airports. The President emphasized that it’s important to follow the facts, rather than fear, as New Yorkers did yesterday when they stuck to their daily routine. Ebola is not an easily transmitted disease, and America is leading the world in the fight to stamp it out in West Africa.

Remarks of President Barack Obama
Weekly Address
The White House
October 25, 2014

Hi everybody, this week, we remained focused on our fight against Ebola. In Dallas, dozens of family, friends and others who had been in close contact with the first patient, Mr. Duncan, were declared free of Ebola—a reminder that this disease is actually very hard to catch. Across Dallas, others being monitored—including health care workers who were most at risk—were also declared Ebola-free.

Two Americans—patients in Georgia and Nebraska who contracted the disease in West Africa—recovered and were released from the hospital. The first of the two Dallas nurses who were diagnosed—Nina Pham—was declared Ebola free, and yesterday I was proud to welcome her to the Oval Office and give her a big hug. The other nurse—Amber Vinson—continues to improve as well. And in Africa, the countries of Senegal and Nigeria were declared free of Ebola—a reminder that this disease can be contained and defeated.

In New York City, medical personnel moved quickly to isolate and care for the patient there—a doctor who recently returned from West Africa. The city and state of New York have strong public health systems, and they’ve been preparing for this possibility. Because of the steps we’ve taken in recent weeks, our CDC experts were already at the hospital, helping staff prepare for this kind of situation. Before the patient was even diagnosed, we deployed one of our new CDC rapid response teams. And I’ve assured Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio that they’ll have all the federal support they need as they go forward.

More broadly, this week we continued to step up our efforts across the country. New CDC guidelines and outreach is helping hospitals improve training and protect their health care workers. The Defense Department’s new team of doctors, nurses and trainers will respond quickly if called upon to help.

New travel measures are now directing all travelers from the three affected countries in West Africa into five U.S. airports where we’re conducting additional screening. Starting this week, these travelers will be required to report their temperatures and any symptoms on a daily basis—for 21 days until we’re confident they don’t have Ebola. Here at the White House, my new Ebola response coordinator is working to ensure a seamless response across the federal government. And we have been examining the protocols for protecting our brave health care workers, and, guided by the science, we’ll continue to work with state and local officials to take the necessary steps to ensure the safety and health of the American people.

In closing, I want to leave you with some basic facts. First, you cannot get Ebola easily. You can’t get it through casual contact with someone. Remember, down in Dallas, even Mr. Duncan’s family—who lived with him and helped care for him—even they did not get Ebola. The only way you can get this disease is by coming into direct contact with the bodily fluids of someone with symptoms. That’s the science. Those are the facts.

Sadly, Mr. Duncan did not survive, and we continue to keep his family in our prayers. At the same time, it’s important to remember that of the seven Americans treated so far for Ebola—the five who contracted it in West Africa, plus the two nurses from Dallas—all seven have survived. Let me say that again—seven Americans treated; all seven survived. I’ve had two of them in the Oval Office. And now we’re focused on making sure the patient in New York receives the best care as well.

Here’s the bottom line. Patients can beat this disease. And we can beat this disease. But we have to stay vigilant. We have to work together at every level—federal, state and local. And we have to keep leading the global response, because the best way to stop this disease, the best way to keep Americans safe, is to stop it at its source—in West Africa.

And we have to be guided by the science—we have to be guided by the facts, not fear. Yesterday, New Yorkers showed us the way. They did what they do every day—jumping on buses, riding the subway, crowding into elevators, heading into work, gathering in parks. That spirit—that determination to carry on—is part of what makes New York one of the great cities in the world. And that’s the spirit all of us can draw upon, as Americans, as we meet this challenge together.

The post Obama: Focused On The Fight Against Ebola – Transcript appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jim Garamone

It is imprudent to assess the U.S. strategy against terrorists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant after only three months, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby said during a Pentagon news conference Friday.

The Pentagon press secretary said the strategy against ISIL is not just sound, but it’s working.

“The coalition continues to gain both momentum and strength,” Kirby said. “And we know we’re having a direct effect on ISIL inside Iraq and inside Syria.”

Airstrikes against the terrorist group only began Aug. 8, Kirby reminded the reporters. At that time, U.S. government officials said the effort against the extremists would take time, and degrading and destroying the group would be hard and complicated.

“Here we are, not three months into it and there are critics saying it is falling apart, it’s failing, the strategy is not sound,” Kirby said. “You cannot adequately gain a sense of the strength of a strategy over the course of three months. It’s just not possible. And it would be imprudent to do that.”

ISIL is losing sources of revenue through airstrikes on refineries and crude oil collection points inside Syria, the admiral said. Other airstrikes have taken out ISIL command and control facilities and finance centers.

The strikes have hit training camps and destroyed “countless vehicles and artillery pieces and other firing positions,” Kirby said.

“They’ve lost hundreds of fighters,” he added. “They certainly, we believe, have lost the ability to move about as freely as they once could. And when they do, they are typically hit.”

The group has had to change tactics, techniques and procedures to adjust to the coalition firepower and to the increased pressure from Iraqi and Kurdish fighters on the ground.

“That doesn’t mean they’re defeated,” the admiral acknowledged.

ISIL is still pushing for ground and for adherents, he said. There will be times when the terror group will gain ground, Kirby said, but time is against them.

Combat is a see-saw, the admiral said, “It goes back and forth. And every day is different. We believe that the strategy is sound. We also believe that it is showing effect. And … it’s really important for people to have a sense of patience here as we work it through.”

The post Pentagon Spokesman Urges Patience In Anti-ISIL Campaign appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A 19-year-old mortarman has become the first US soldier to die in the fight against ISIS in Iraq, albeit from a “non-combat injury,” the Pentagon acknowledged.

The death of Marine Lance Corporal Sean P. Neal of Riverside, California, which occurred on Thursday in Baghdad, is under investigation, according to the Pentagon. He was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, and was one of 1,600 US troops serving in Iraq. Pentagon officials confirmed his death Friday night.

Neal is the “first casualty announced by the Department since Operation Inherent Resolve was announced,” said Maureen Schumann, a spokeswoman for the US Defense Department, according to the Guardian.

Having enlisted in the army in July 2013, Neal was part of the special Marine air-ground task force, the 1 Marine Expeditionary Force public affairs office reported. He got to Baghdad around September this year.

However, Neal could actually be the second fatality as earlier this month a marine went missing at sea. The US military lost Corporal Jordan L. Spears of Memphis, Indiana, on October 1. The 21-year-old aircrew member is now presumed dead.

“Cpl. Spears was a cherished member of our MEU family, and he fulfilled a key role in our aviation combat element,” Col. Matthew Trollinger, commander of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, wrote on the unit’s official Facebook page.

In June, President Obama ordered US troops back into Iraq, grounding this move on the expansion of the Islamic State (IS, formerly known as ISIS/ISIL). Officially troops, based in the capital, Baghdad, and the northern city of Erbil, play a “non-combat” role – they are supposed to advise and train Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their counterattacks.

Airstrikes within the framework of the Operation Inherent Resolve started on August 8 in Iraq, later extended to Syria in September. The US-led coalition fights against the Islamic State militants, their positions and vehicles. Its bombings also target the Turkish-Syrian border, where the besieged Kurdish town of Kobani is located.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said on Friday, “The coalition continues to gain both momentum and strength.” He added, “And we know we’re having a direct effect on ISIL inside Iraq and inside Syria.”

Although calling the strategy “sound,” the spokesman underlined that the Islamic State is still pushing for ground and for adherents.

A total of 4,487 US military were killed in the Iraq War that lasted from 2003 to 2011.

The post 1st US Soldier Killed In Iraq Anti-ISIS Campaign appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Hassan al-Obaidi

The Iraqi army has discovered a mass grave near Fallujah that contains the bodies of 19 civilians executed by the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL), the Defence Ministry said last week.

The ministry said in a statement that the army found the grave site after entering the town of Thiraa Dijlah, about 30 kilometres northeast of Fallujah, and retaking it from the group.

Army troops found the bodies of 19 civilians who had been executed by ISIL, including three 16- and 17-year-olds, Iraqi army commander in Anbar Lt. Gen. Rashid Flaih told Mawtani.

“ISIL carried out a wide campaign of executions in the town of Thiraa Dijlah” that included families of security forces, he said.

Earlier this month, the Iraqi army advanced under aerial cover and expelled ISIL from al-Dhabitiya, Banat al-Hassan and Thiraa Dijlah, three towns outside Baghdad near the border with Anbar, the ministry said.

Baghdad military commander Lt. Gen. Abdul Ameer al-Shammary said earlier this month that “army troops inflicted heavy casualties in the ranks of the group, forcing [ISIL elements] to flee from the three towns towards al-Karma in the west”.

Al-Shammary said Iraqi forces would clear explosives from the three towns before inviting residents to return.

Mass graves found in most ISIL-captured cities

Mass graves “have become a feature of cities captured by ISIL and in every town it enters there has been more than one mass grave for victims it tortures and kills”, Anbar deputy governor Mustafa al-Irsan told Mawtani.

Men, women and children have been found in these graves, he said.

The grave near Fallujah is estimated to be within three months old, he said, adding that the victims were difficult to identify and have now been transferred to Baghdad for DNA testing.

“ISIL uses school yards and parks to bury victims using bulldozers in one deep hole and in a disgusting manner far from any sense of humanity and compassion,” said Iraqi Sahwa leader Sheikh Ahmed Abu Reesha.

“Security forces and tribesmen previously found three similar graves in different parts of Anbar and we expect to find more,” he said.

“They are a witness to the ugliness and filthiness of ISIL’s actions in cities where they assumed the ‘caliphate’ and claimed to be protecting its people while killing them,” Abu Reesha added.

Dozens of local residents arrived at Madinat al-Tibb Hospital in central Baghdad after the security forces transferred the bodies of the victims there and announced the start of DNA testing.

Eight of the corpses were difficult to identify because their features had disappeared.

“Currently, we are taking samples from the victims and matching them to samples of citizens who lost their children, so they can be buried by their relatives in an Islamic, respectful and humane way before anything else,” said Dr. Faisal al-Musawi of the forensic medicine department in Baghdad.

Identification of bodies has become difficult after ISIL began to tamper with corpses through mutilation, beheading, burning or even cutting and booby trapping them, he told Mawtani.

“I lost my son and my daughter’s husband two months ago,” said Amina Ahmed al-Janaby, 53, as she stood at the hospital door. “I do not know whether they are alive or dead, so whenever I hear about the arrival of victims’ bodies I go there in an attempt to find them.”

“I know they are captured by ISIL, so their chances of survival would be very weak,” she said. “That group does not know mercy or humanity. They were civilians who travelled there for trade and were detained at a checkpoint [the group] had set up.”

“I am Sunni and a living example and proof that this group does not represent Iraqis,” she said.

The post Iraqi Army Uncovers Mass Grave Near Fallujah appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Saeid Jafari

1. Branching from Al-Qaeda

Without a doubt, the emergence of the ISIS terrorist group, which is currently calling itself the Islamic State, was closely related to an organization whose founding leader was slain a few years ago. In terms of its main core and theoretical background, the Islamic State is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, which has branched from the bigger organizations. Of course, followers of the new branch have shown a special penchant for high degrees of violence.

2. Questionable performance of Nouri Al-Maliki

Unlike his last years in power, when former Iraqi prime minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, came to office succeeding his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, he had no good command over the situation in the country. Soon after his appointment as prime minister, Baathist elements who were still loyal to the former Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, were not happy with the changes in the country. This was natural because until quite recently, they saw themselves at the highest levels of power, but now they had been set aside and marginalized. In order to prevent their potential opposition from turning into real action, the United States decided to give them a share in the power game. Al Sahwa militia was made up of former Sunni soldiers who were promised to be paid in return for fighting the extremist forces of Al-Qaeda and protecting order in the new Iraq. According to the primary agreement, they were supposed to be recruited by the Iraq army after a while. Maliki, however, disbanded the militia once he consolidated his power. He disarmed them without even recruiting them for the Iraqi army. Maliki’s performance a year ago and in the face of protests from people in Fallujah was not responsible and he chose to use violence against Sunni protesters. As a result, those forces who had fought to protect the new order turned into critics of the situation because they had been dismissed from the political game. Of course, other inequalities under the government of Maliki further prompted them to turn from critics into the opposition. As a result, when the ISIS attacked Iraq, they gave them a warm welcome and considered ISIS forces as their saviors.

3. Failure of the Arab Spring

Soon after sentimental Egyptian youth along with simplistic political elite of the country poured into the streets to celebrate the ouster of the former Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, they did not know that they were paving the way for another coup d’état in history of their country. At that time it was quite possible to predict that after dialogue as well as peaceful change and transition to democracy hit a deadlock, the country would fall into the vortex of violence and radicalism. From that time, the more radical parts of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood became critical of the moderate figures of this group noting that if they had appeared firmer in the face of their opposites, they would not have been in prison. Basically, a review of historical events will reveal that any time that peaceful processes for change end in failure, that change will take place in a violent manner. The fall of the government of Morsi in Egypt caused people to lose hope in the possibility of a soft change and it was under those circumstances that the discourse advocated by radical groups gained more ground.

4. Developments in Syria

Most opposition groups in Syria believed that the country’s President Bashar Assad is nearing the end of his rule and Western countries along with regional Arab states and Turkey can speed up that process by lending their support to opposition forces fighting against the Syrian government. However, certain factors, which cannot be fully discussed here, changed the equation in Syria. Assad has remained in power and those political currents which had been equipped and armed by the Syrian opposition became bigger and more dangerous. The Al-Nusra Front and the ISIS were among the most important of those groups. Finally, those groups, which saw their jockeying ground becoming increasingly limited in Syria, turned to its eastern neighbor, Iraq. At that time, Iraq was a country that for a variety of reasons enjoyed enough potentials to be used by extremist groups for their activities.

5. Popularity of extremism theory in Arab Middle East

Whether we like it or not, the theory of extremism is very popular in the Arab Middle East. There are many reasons to explain this situation. They include a sense of humiliation among Arabs following the collapse of the Islamic civilization, especially in relation to developments between Arabs and Israel; inefficiency of political systems in this region; depriving people of their right to determine their own destiny in a peaceful manner; and a host of economic and other problems. To the above list should be added the failure of developments known as the Arab Spring. Through those developments the Arab nations made another attempt to determine their destiny in a peaceful manner, but their efforts failed. Therefore, a large part of the Arab society (or maybe a small part but with a high degree of influence on other parts) reached the conclusion that violence and brute force was the only way remained to change the status quo. That part also tried to bank on such theories as Salafism and a return to original religious tenets to define a new path for its moves.

Future outlook

Now that situation has ended up where it is right now, failure to adopt a logical strategy which would address the main causes that have led to this situation, can made conditions in the Middle East even worse. A study of regional history would reveal that the approach taken by the United States under the aegis of fighting against terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has not been able to weaken terrorist groups in the Middle East. On the opposite, it has increased the intensity and level of terrorist attacks in this region to an unprecedented manner. As said before, the current crisis in the Middle East is more a software problem rather than a hardware one and its resolution, as such, needs soft measures. Therefore, it seems that before taking any military action, a radical treatment should be administered for this crisis. Of course, the situation in the region is currently so critical that military measures may need to be considered alongside more radical solutions. Perhaps even the US President Barack Obama cannot be blamed for the current situation because his predecessor, George W. Bush was instrumental in creating the current situation. However, he cannot be totally exonerated of any blame as well. This is true because the incumbent US president has practically failed to come up with a solid strategy in relation to a crisis whose resolution calls for special attention and calculated strategies. This is a crisis which if not controlled, as put by the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, can consume the entire world in its flames and lead to spillover of a more advanced form of radicalism into European countries and the United States.

Saeid Jafari
Expert on Middle East Issues

The post Five Major Reasons Leading To ISIS Emergence – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

It is an old debate on fictions. St. Augustine, in his lengthy and at times revealing scribbles, proposed that humans were placed on this earth for a purpose. Disappointing it must be to then discover that humans have no purpose at all, the sort of accidental matter that coexist with Mother Nature’s musical furniture. They simply are. This brute simplicity is not something that measures for the historians who see value in movement and process, the classic error in wishing to draw moisture out of sand, and sweetness out of salt.

Nonetheless, it gives soothsayers, policy makers and international relations commentators a lot of material to work with. The international system has magical ciphers that can be picked and read. There are signs. The next century must belong to some country, as if ownership is something that can be pinched in futuristic terms.

The latest talk show babble doing the heated rounds is the idea that, with a strange conjunction of newly elected leaders in the Asia Pacific, that we are facing yet another “Asian Century”. This, it might be said, is a century that has been in the wings for sometime, gathering dust. The American century (more of that later) was stripping, fighting, and bellowing for much of the last century, and so it comes down to the question as to who else was willing to stride into view. The powers of the Asian region are certainly interested, but their resumes were shortened by an assortment of financial crisis and political squabbles.

In 2012, the Australian Government, succumbing to slogan and supposition, decided what the country would be doing in Australia in the Asian Century. The Prime Minister then, Julia Gillard, decided to read the tarot cards. “Predicting the future is fraught with risk, but the greater risk is in failing to plan for our destiny. As a nation, we face a choice: to drift into our future or to actively shape it.”

The White paper is revealing, showing Australia to be a keen man servant for Asian needs. (It is worth nothing here the usual ignorance that accompanies such announcements: what is “Asia” in this?) The point, however, is assumed: the Asian century is upon us, even if it has no form or tangible means of being grasped. “In this century, the region in which we live will become home to most of the world’s middle class. Our region will be the world’s largest producer of goods and services and the largest consumer of them.”

There have been three charging forces who have been selected as significant in this regard.
They are the starlets on the political scene – the two, at least functional democracies, India and Indonesia, and then the People’s Republic of China, distinctly not democratic but very keen in buying into the fashion walk of political talk. That these should all be lumped together in a conversation about a “century” should puzzle all.

The three certainly have promising leaders, though a leader’s promise remains a deep frozen contingency till something appears, or at the very least thaws, on the record. President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, for all his regional experience, remains grinningly virginal; India’s Narendra Modi is still doing the rounds convincing people that he will not metamorphose into a Hindu nationalist fiend rounding up Muslims; and China’s Xi Jinping is busying himself with the fad of reform in Beijing while nodding vigorously to the tradition of Deng Xiaoping.

President Xi has certainly made sounds along the line of building bridges with India for “an Asian century of prosperity”. Eyes are focused keenly on a declining West – an ailing European Union, a United States that is running out of puff. But what tends to rupture the prospects of ordered collaboration lies in those traditional power disagreements: strong leaders do not necessarily imply wise heads. Territorial disputes remain a flash point, with the only stimulant drawing all together trade. (Tediously, we have Modinomics, Abenomics, and, wait for it to come, Jokonomics.)

Such optimism for centuries has precedents. Henry R. Luce of Time magazine spoke famously of The American Century, the sort of holy water that was bound to stick in the corridors of power. He was writing in February 1941, some months before the first Japanese bombs began falling on Pearl Harbour. The non-interventionists were still holding court over imminent US involvement in the Second World War. “Consider the 20th Century,” he seemed to thunder. “It is not only in the sense that we happen to live in it but ours also because it is America’s first century as a dominant power in the world.” Hence, the idea that time is a form of historical real estate you can pinch.

The African hopefuls, flush from post-colonial release, were such individuals as Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah. They inspired a sense that another era beckoned on the continent. The African literature set was mandatory reading for any socialist, champagne or otherwise, for several years. Then the project soured, and the champagne flattened. The corpses, the ruined states, the emptied treasuries, and the torture chambers all somehow took away from the glossy optimism. Colonial powers were brutal, but leaders educated in the manners of the colonists simply knew better. Such “decades” or “centuries” suggest far more problems than solutions. It excites the brutes.

Last year, in another act of re-invention, there were a spate of articles speculating about African growth, and whether there would be an “African century” in due course. Oliver August, writing for The Economist, could even claim that he travelled 15,800 miles over Africa’s roads without once being solicited for a bribe. But even such speculation had to come with disabusing notions of uneven growth, singular characteristics between the powers, and various regimes. For Todd Moss, head of the Emerging Africa Project at the Centre for Global Development, Africa might be “big and important and historically different from the past”, but “the dominant trend is divergence among countries” (Foreign Policy, Mar 29, 2013). They, it seems, will have to wait.

Certainly, the entire business of finding centuries that have yet to happen takes medieval mysticism and eschatology to another level. Instead of having European proselytisers leading us on a child crusade, we have a deodorized public relations expert loving pie charts and graphic projections, drinking too much coffee at in a think-tank office with dubious funding links. “The next century will have…” More pie charts, more hopeful figures that will never eventuate. Companies, excited, up stakes and rush with capital and bank assets to a region that will, in time, become the next scented wonder of the financial world.

The failing soothsayers tend to eventually fall over, replaced by another bunch of tea leaf readers. At the heart of such predictions is a terrible, and in some cases disturbing desire to streamline and find the catch-all idea: that economic growth can be measured like a sporting league table. Those economists have held sway for too long. The same goes for the international relations non-experts, who presume, without cause, that difference does not produce conflict.

The post Histories Of Illusion – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In era of globalized awareness, best business, government practices demand local consent and social license.

By John Morrison

There was a time when signing a piece of paper and a handshake were enough for companies to start a factory or mine. This is how business still works in many places, but globalization – delivering economic development to all corners of the planet – is also bringing greater awareness about social, economic and environmental consequences. Now, business also needs the consent of local people and not just a certificate from the town hall or central government. Such consent is increasingly linked to the concept of “social license” required for an activity to proceed without community opposition including roadblocks, sit-ins, boycotts or NGO campaigns.

The term “social license to operate” first arose in the extractive sectors, as Bruce Harvey, longtime Australian mining hand, puts it: “In an increasing world of scrutiny and mobilization of local voices, if you don’t have the broad based support of local people for what you want to do, then you won’t get your legal license.”

There are many examples where the absence of social license has resulted in project delays and cancellations, from dam building in Myanmar and oil production in Niger Delta to genetically-modified crops in Europe and nuclear power in Germany.

Businesses need three forms of license – political, legal and social – to proceed with certainty. But whose permission is required? Who needs to be consulted and fundamentally whose consent must be secured? In my book on The Social License, I argue that trust, legitimacy and consent are essential components for any understanding of how business activities impact the pre-existing social contract that binds any society or community.

Consider one of the most high-profile business disasters of recent times. BP’s Deepwater Horizon, an oil drilling facility, blew up in April 2010 killing 11 men and causing about $40 billion liability for the company, not to mention reputation damage. The deep-water operation certainly had its legal license, and the company might well have assumed political license, given the US government’s moves towards energy security. But social license for a drilling platform far off the coast?

BP clearly understood the value of social license – at least for some of its projects – and invested time and resources to gain the consent of local populations and ensure security for oil and gas pipelines in Indonesia, from the Caspian to Mediterranean seas, and Colombia. International human-rights NGOs, former US senators, anthropologists and community experts were involved as independent voices. So-called “multi-stakeholder” approaches to understanding risks, possible impacts and company mitigations can achieve a level of consensus surrounding the proactive steps that a company takes to reduce risk while protecting well-being and livelihoods. Crises might still happen to good companies and their activities, but strong stakeholder relations that are built on meaningful consent will strengthen the social license.

BP’s tragic Gulf of Mexico spill cannot be explained purely in social license terms. The crisis may have unfolded in the same way had BP engaged their competitors, the US government, international NGOs and local communities in the risks associated with deep-water drilling and to review expectations and plan risk reduction. There would still have been fines, although perhaps not at the scale now predicted, as well as bad publicity and rightly so. But the complete loss of political and social license in the weeks following the disaster owe much to the fact that BP’s competitors, NGOs, trade unions, community groups and government agencies found no reason to defend the company or its actions. Such players had no stake in the company’s risk mitigation program. Few outside of the industry had participated in discussing the social risks of deep-water drilling or could determine whether the company was taking adequate precautions.

It is not an argument for good public relations. Unlike public relations, companies cannot self-award a social license for their activities, rather they must earn it by involving others, including their competitors, communities and NGOs, in achieving levels of consensus that both reduce the risk of bad events and, when they do happen, also involve others in achieving adequate remedies.

It is always easier to observe the absence of social license than its presence, and examples of its existence are bound to be contested, but here are two examples.

The bulk text-messaging service of Safaricom in Kenya was thought to have inadvertently fueled ethic violence in the Rift Valley following the 2008 elections. Instead of engaging in denials or a glossy public-relations campaign, the company developed careful protocols for the 2012 elections – including the involvement of third-party observers in how the company dealt with hate speech while maintaining freedom of expression to the highest possible degree. Safaricom remains one of the most popular and trusted companies in Kenya – and one could easily say that its activities enjoy strong social license.

Likewise, the Gap Inc. clothing company faced much criticism for its sourcing activities in Cambodia in the late 1990s. Gap did engage in multi-stakeholder efforts in the early 2000s resulting in its 2004 Social Report that set a new standard in corporate human rights transparency for its time. Importantly, the report set out “gray areas” where the risk of child labor and bonded-labor was likely to still exist despite the company’s best preventative measures. Stakeholders recognized that Gap Inc. was indeed doing as much or more than its competitors.

So, when the BBC broke the news alleging use of bonded labor by a Gap supplier near Delhi in 2008, the company in many ways did not have to defend itself in the classic public-relations sense. Rather, the chairman of the multi-stakeholder Ethical Trading Initiative and the main trade union involved joined the company’s defense. The charges did not dominate the headlines in the way that the Cambodia allegations had done years before – trust was maintained.

Gap Inc. had secured social license for its activities, and its risk mitigation and efforts on fair labor were robust enough to suggest that the violation was an aberration. But it should not be inferred that Gap enjoys similar social license for other activities, or that its social license in India is indefinite. Maintaining social license for specific activities requires an ongoing commitment to engaging with those outside of the business, be they communities, trade unions, NGOs, suppliers or competitors.

While a social license might seem like an intangible asset for many companies – it is an increasingly essential one. A recent study by Queensland University actually values such a license as worth up to $20 million a week for large mining operations should they be blocked by local communities.

Political leaders might also take interest in the concept as it does not just apply to business activities. It was clear that during the recent run-up to the Scottish referendum that all three leaders of the UK’s main political parties had lost social license in Scotland. They had in many ways become a liability for their own cause, only saved during the final hours with an appeal for unity by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

While community consent is not an absolute and most do not eliminate the “Not in My Back Yard” complaints, social license is set to move central stage in discussions about how activities achieve legitimacy in the eyes of society in a globalized economy.

John Morrison has been executive director of the Institute for Human Rights and Business since its founding in April 2009. The institute is a global “think and do” tank on human rights policy and practice that works with governments, business, civil society and trade unions to tackle systemic dilemmas. He is author of The Social License: How to Keep Your Organization Legitimate.

The post Government Approval Not Enough, Businesses Need Social License – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Rufiz Hafizoglu

Turkish Interior Minister Efkan Ala and Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus were attacked in the country’s Sanliurfa province, Kanal7 TV channel reported on Saturday.

Reportedly, a group of unknown people threw stones at a government delegation which arrived in the Sanliurfa province to get acquainted with the living conditions of refugees from Syria’s Kobani city, the number of which exceeds 150,000.

The interior minister and deputy prime minister were not injured as a result of the attack.

The post Turkey: Deputy PM, Interior Minister Attacked By Protestors, Uninjured appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Saima Ghazanfer*

The Indian strategic community appears to be perturbed by the rise of China as an economic powerhouse of the world and that country’s unprecedented growth in offensive and defensive military might over the preceding decades.

To position itself as a great power, India is also trying to emerge as a formidable pole of economic and military power. To realize the dream into a tangible reality, India is striving hard to enhance its hard and soft power by reaching to far corners of the world in order to secure and safeguard its geo-strategic, military and economic interests. This hot pursuit of great power status is replete with multifaceted pitfalls leading to direct diplomatic and economic confrontation with China.

Since the Chinese takeover of the Gwadar port, the Indian government has been deliberating to manipulate by constructing the first foreign project at Chabhar in Iran. In the recent past, India has announced that it will invest millions of dollars to develop the project to get an access to the sea-land route in Afghanistan. No doubt, the successful November 2014 deal on Iran’s nuclear issue is much awaited by many international actors across the world, yet the assumption of successful agreement on decade long Iran’s nuclear issue seem unpractical.

Located on the confluence of the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman, the port is 76 km away from Gwadar with close proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit to 4% of the world’s oil trade. The project intends to be of ‘extreme importance’ as operationalization will give access to landlocked Afghanistan and energy resources rich Central Asian states, the most significant by circumventing Pakistan.
In this regard, Narendra Modi’s government approved $ 85.21 million investment, to complete the strategic point. The foundation of the project was laid by its predecessor PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in 2003, and a MoU was signed with then Iranian president Mohammad Khatami. Initially, to link the port by land, in 2009, India constructed the Zaranj-Delaram road. The country intends to expand the road network from Chabhar and intends to link up the Zaranj-Delaram road to Afghanistan’s “garland” road network that would connect the port with major cities of Afghanistan, including the capital of Kabul.

To extend the sea route, the port will be developed by joint venture of the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) and the Kandla Port Trust (KPT). To this end, fully constructed berths will be released at Chabahar for a decade, which could be renewed by “mutual agreement.”

Not surprisingly, the project also aims to keep an eye on the two rivals in the region — Pakistan and China — though the latter is not a declared one. Apparently, India wants love to abound with China; however, the former’s desire is stronger than the latter.

Nonetheless, however, the US desire to contain China has benefitted India strategically and economically. The Indo –US civil nuclear deal refuted the Indian “Hindi Chini, Bhai Bhai’ slogan.

Evidently, the Chinese presence in Gwadar is festering like wound to India. Soon after the Chinese takeover of Gwadar, fake Indian apprehensions of “China encircling India” and “China undermining India maritime security” started to surface. The Indian exaggeration overruled the fact that there is still long way before Gwadar will be operational as international transit route facility.

Even so, ]the growing Indian diplomatic and economic footprint in Afghanistan is viewed with suspicion and anxiety that is bound to lead to countermeasures to checkmate deepening Indian influence in Afghanistan that is vitally critical to national security of Pakistan. Due to Pakistan’s security concerns and geo-strategic sensitivities, so far India has resisted Kabul demand for supply of heavy and offensive military hardware to ANF. Furthermore, Pakistan asserts that India is aiding and abetting insurgency in Baluchistan through Afghanistan.

Chbahar is located in Iran’s most volatile and anti-regime province Sistan-Baluchistan, a quagmire of Sunni Baloch Jundullah insurgents. The insurgents have launched repeated attacks in the province, even in the wake of chief Addolm alek Rigi execution. Insurgency has resurrected in November 2013 in vulnerable province. A terrorist Salafi group named itself Jaishul al Adl” (Army of the Justice) attacked and caused death of 16 Iranian soldiers.
Israel is deeply concerned about successful prospect deal with Iran, demands stringent sanctions, and considers some restrictions on Iran’s nuclear project as failure. Israel asserts an agreement devoid of setting the quantity and quality of Iran remaining operational centrifuges; as an imperfect deal. Israel officials warned the USA to preclude reaching a bad deal.

Finally, India foresees the operationalization of port as a mean to hold global footprints, but the mighty China is more vigilant and pragmatic. So far, little chances of Indian aspiration to emerge as regional power in the region due to the presence of mighty China and challenging Pakistan. Chinese military, economic might is far ahead of India and aspiration cannot be attained easily. For the first time in the history, two Chinese warships docked at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port to take part in joint naval exercises in the Gulf, endorsed by Iranian media and Chinese Defence Minister.

*Saima Ghazanfer, M.Phil IR

The post India: In Pursuit Of Great Power Status – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Mounting tension between Israel and Palestinians on the occupied West Bank and in East Jerusalem have spilt on to Israeli Palestinian soccer pitches in Israel proper as Israel swings towards ultra-nationalists that make Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu look like the best card in a bad hand.

Israeli human rights and legal advocacy group Adalah – The Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights charged in a petition to the Tel Aviv district court that the Israel Football Association (IFA) was segregating Israeli and Palestinian teams and discriminating Israeli Palestinian players in its Shomron amateur division. Adalah was acting on behalf of Muhammad Lutfi from the Israeli town of Umm al-Fahem, the father of a young Israeli Palestinian soccer player.

In its petition to the court Adalah said the IFA had advised 13 of the 15 Palestinian teams in the division that they were being moved into a division for Palestinians only. The remaining two Palestinian teams would be grouped in a division alongside 12 Israeli Jewish teams, Adalah said. Adalah asserted that the regrouping was sparked by objections by some Israeli Jewish parents against their children playing with Palestinians.

The case was filed in the wake of this summer’s Gaza war during which fuelled anti-Palestinian and ultra-nationalist sentiment in Israel. With Mr. Netanyahu privately anticipating early elections, Economy Minister Naftali Bennett, the leader of the Jewish Home party and a proponent of the Israeli settler movement has emerged as a formidable threat to the prime minister. Mr. Bennett has threatened to bring the government down by abstaining if not voting in favour of a no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday if Mr. Netanyahu refuses to authorize further housing projects in occupied Palestinian territory. Mr. Netanyahu could waylay Mr. Bennett’s effort by reaching out to religious parties.

The Israeli Palestinian soccer tensions also come amid increasing unrest in Jerusalem with Palestinian youths and Israeli security forces clashing over access to the Temple Mount or Haram al-Sharif, which is holy to both Jews and Muslims. The stealth acquisition by Israeli settlers of properties in Jerusalem’s predominantly Palestinian district of Silwan that sits just under the Temple Mount has further fuelled tension. Jewish residents have moved into the newly acquired properties in the neighbourhood in the middle of the night in a bid to avert Palestinian protests.

In a letter to the parents involved in the court case, the IFA appeared to acknowledge that objections by Israeli Jewish parents had played a role in its decision. ““We will not contradict the desires of the clubs (regarding the divisions), and we will not force a child to play in a league that is not joyful for him/her and that does not help his/her professional development”. The IFA said it was referring to differing playing levels.

“The petition contended that segregation between children based on their national belonging delivers a negative message that Arab teams are unwanted and are not skilled enough to play with Jewish teams. This message is offensive to children and violates their right to equality with Jewish children… the decision of the IFA to segregate the teams, even if only in certain areas, reinforces discrimination and prejudices against Arab citizens of Israel,” Adalah said in a statement.

“Furthermore, the IFA’s decision to not distribute teams according to objective general standards, regardless of national belonging, will strengthen and perpetuate the lack of respect and lack of acceptance of others. This is particularly important in the matter of children’s sports, where it should not only teach children to be successful but to also teach them the values of mutual respect for different people,” Adalah said.

The law suit coincided with the imposition by the IFA of a fine on Israeli’s leading Palestinian team, Bnei Sakhnin, long viewed as a symbol of Israeli-Palestinian co-existence, for engaging in politics by honouring a controversial Israeli Palestinian former member of parliament as well as Qatar. Israel has turned on Qatar because of the Gulf state’s support for Hamas, the Islamist militia that controls the Gaza strip, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The honouring was intended as an expression of gratitude to former deputy Azmi Bishara for arranging funding from Qatar for the club at the height of the Gaza war. Qatar is the only Arab country that does not officially recognize Israel to have openly invested in the Jewish State. Bnei Sakhnin it turned to Mr. Bishara for help after Israel authorities had refused to come to the club’s financial rescue.

Mr. Bishara, a close associate of Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, moved to Qatar in 2007 amid suspicion that he had spied for Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

To be sure, the 15,000 Israeli shekel ($4,000) fine was light against the backdrop of calls by members of Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet, including Culture and Sport Minister Limor Livnat and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, to expel Bnei Sakhnin from Israel’s Premier League.

Israeli-Palestinian tension was further reflected in soccer with fans of Beitar Jerusalem, Israel’s most racist anti-Palestinian, anti-Muslim soccer group chanting during a soccer match this week “Jerusalem is ours” and “48,” a reference to the 1948 Israeli-Arab war from which Israel emerged as an independent state. The Beitar fans were responding to a banner hoisted in Bnei Sakhnin’s Doha Stadium during a match immediately after the controversial ceremony which had the words “Jerusalem is ours” inscribed beneath a picture of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, one of Islam’s holiest sites.

Israeli President Reuven Rivkin summed up the mounting tension by saying that “Jerusalem cannot be a city where the light rail, which services all the city’s residents, is attacked in a way that threatens the ability to lead a normal life.” Mr. Rivkin was referring to this week’s ramming of a train station by a Palestinian car driver. A three-month old baby was killed in the incident. It was not clear whether the incident was an accident or an attack by the driver. “Jerusalem cannot be a city into which moving into apartments happens in the middle of the night,” Mr. Rivkin went on to say.

Israeli youths responded to the train station incident with a demonstration calling for revenge. “Arabs, beware! Jewish blood is not valueless,’’ they chanted.

The post Mounting Israeli-Palestinians Tensions Reverberate On Soccer Pitch – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

“Settlements” – there’s a word to conjure with. It carries connotations of hardy pioneers, supported by their doughty wives, trekking across empty plains to set up a collection of makeshift homes on virgin land, aiming to scratch a living from the barren soil. When applied to Israel, however, the term has been stretched well-nigh beyond breaking point to embrace wholly urban districts of Jerusalem with populations of up to 50,000, like Ramot, Pisgat Ne’eve, or Gilo, or fully-fledged cities such as Beitar Illit, Ma’ale Adumim or Modi’in. Over the years “settlement” has become a catch-all description for housing and social developments, large and small, carried out in the areas that Israel captured from Jordan in the Six Day War of 1967 – in other words, beyond the Green Line.

The Green Line? During the 1949 Arab-Israeli Armistice Agreement talks, presided over by UN mediator Dr Ralph Bunche, someone seized a green pencil and delineated the boundary lines between the armies of Israel and those of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria at the moment the fighting ceased in 1948. At Arab insistence, the terms of the Armistice Agreements made it abundantly clear that the Green Lines were not creating permanent borders. In the words of former President of the International Court of Justice, Professor Judge Stephen M Schwebel, they “expressly preserved the territorial claims of all parties, and did not purport to establish definitive boundaries between them.”

As far as the West Bank and East Jerusalem were concerned, the wording states: “No provision of this Agreement shall in any way prejudice the rights, claims and positions of either Party hereto in the ultimate peaceful settlement of the Palestine question, the provisions of this Agreement being dictated exclusively by military considerations.”

From 1949 the areas bounded by the Green Lines represented the status quo between Israel and its Arab neighbors until, on 6 June 1967, Israel pre-empted the co-ordinated Arab attack about to be launched on it from Egypt, Syria and Jordan. In the fighting that followed, areas beyond the Green Line west of the River Jordan fell into Israel’s hands, and over the years the basic principle of the armistice agreement has become blurred. In many minds – including, it would seem, among UN and EU officials – those armistice lines, which “did not purport to establish definitive boundaries”, have morphed into the borders of a putative sovereign state of Palestine. The Palestinian Authority (PA) certainly subscribes to this view. Ignoring entirely the terms of the agreement, it is currently asking the world to recognise a state of Palestine bounded by the Green Line, and including East Jerusalem and Gaza.

Previous peace negotiations, of which there have been many, have produced modified versions of this demand, including the swapping of land on either side of the Green Line to allow the major Israeli conurbations to remain within Israel while increasing the area allotted to a Palestinian state by equivalent amounts. As each attempt at reaching a deal has collapsed, so the delicate give-and- take of negotiation and compromise has collapsed with it. Now, with PA President Mahmoud Abbas wooing the UN Security Council for its backing to by-pass peace negotiations altogether, recognise the state of Palestine and demand Israel’s withdrawal from the whole of the occupied territories within a given deadline – November 2016 has been mentioned – the settlement issue has assumed major significance. It is certainly impacting on Israel’s relations with the EU.

Last week a confidential internal EU briefing document, intended only for the eyes of the EU ambassador to Israel, Lars Faaborg-Andersen, found its way into the media. Declaring that the EU regards sustaining the two-state solution as its priority, the document sets out a series of “Red Lines” regarding possible Israeli intentions in what it designates “the occupied Palestinian territories”. Faaborg-Andersen is required to hold “thorough discussions” with the Israeli government on these new EU Red Lines. Reading between the lines – if one may put it so – It is a fair assumption that the EU is gearing itself up to tighten the economic restrictions it has already imposed on industrial and commercial activity by Israeli companies with interests beyond the Green Line.

Back in June the Director of Carnegie Europe, Jan Techau, wisely remarked that EU-Israeli relations were in danger of being “hi-jacked by settlements”. Mutually beneficial cooperation between the EU and Israel, he believes, is being undermined by the settlement issue, which is increasingly dominating the debate between the two sides.

That EU-Israeli relationship is certainly fast-developing. Not only is scientific and technology cooperation intensive, but the trade volume between the two is enormous and growing. In July 2012, the EU took unprecedented measures to enhance its relations with Israel in sixty trade and diplomatic policy areas, including increased access to its single market, closer cooperation on transport and energy, and enhanced ties with nine EU agencies. And in October 2012, despite fierce opposition from the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement, the European parliament ratified a critical framework agreement to facilitate the export to Europe of Israeli industrial products.

Yet, as veteran Middle East observer Stephen J Rosen recently pointed out, the EU’s policy towards Israel seems to be moving in opposite directions at the same time. While one path is marked by expanding economic co-operation, the other – shaped by policies centred on the settlements – is apparently designed to encourage boycotts of Israel’s major banks and many of its key companies and research institutions.

The settlement issue divides Israeli public opinion pretty nearly down the middle, but none can deny that it has become a hot potato in Israel’s international, and indeed Jewish diaspora, relations. In the judgement of the Director of Carnegie Europe: “The current government still underestimates the enormous damage it does to its own reputation and credibility when it authorizes further developments of settlements in disputed areas.”

Should dialogue fail to resolve the EU’s new Red Lines to its satisfaction, they could well turn into ultimata to Israel, with tightening of sanctions as the deterrent. There is surely a pressing need for Israel to engage with the EU about the settlement issue, as part of a wider dialogue aimed at clarifying the whole matter of financial, industrial and commercial activity outside the Green Line.

“There’s no point trying to dress it up,” writes Elinadav Heymann, director of the European Friends of Israel, “the issue of settlements is a boil on the EU-Israel relationship that needs to be lanced.”

The post Green Lines And Red Lines – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Jai Kumar Verma

The strength of Islamic terrorist organizations is escalating in Xinjiang region of China.

Several Uyghur outfits, including East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), East Turkistan Liberation Organization (ETLO), United Revolutionary Front of East Turkestan (URFET), and the Uyghur Liberation Organization (ULO) carried out several terrorist incidents despite the ruthless repression by authorities of People’s Republic of China (PRC). Besides these organisations, there are a few more Uyghur terrorist outfits and their splinter groups.

The aim of ETIM is the creation of an Islamic state with the name of Uyghuristan or Eastern Turkistan and to convert all Chinese into Islam. ETIM was declared a terrorist organisation by United States of America, Pakistan and a few more countries.

The majority inhabitants of Xinjiang region are Uyghur Muslims who are closer to the residents of Central Asia than Han Chinese. In fact, in 1933-34 Uyghur Muslims had established an independent Islamic state although for a short duration. Now PRC is making an attempt to settle more and more Han Chinese to change the demography of the region.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan gave asylum to Uyghur separatists. However, China signed treaties with these countries and they not only stopped helping the Uyghurs, but also extradited Uyghur separatists residing in their areas.

Uyghur Muslims affirm that Chinese are exploiting their mineral wealth and want to exterminate their culture, language, religion and separate identity. Hence some Uyghurs advocate the need for a sovereign state while a few groups are for an autonomous state so that their special entity can be retained. The Muslims allege that the Chinese authorities do not allow them to perform their religious rituals.

The Chinese security personnel launched search operations in Xinjiang region even in the pious month of Ramadan, where only houses of Muslims were searched; ladies wearing veils and men having beards were questioned and young Muslims were detained, interrogated and searched. In the month of Ramadan Muslims were compelled to break the fast.

These and several other restrictions have generated animosity in Uyghur Muslims and there were violent demonstrations in several cities, including Elishku and Alaqagha. In March 2014, the Islamic radicals slaughtered 29 people with knives at Kunming railway station, while in May they killed at least 31 people in a shopping area in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang province.

On July 28, Muslims attacked a police station in Elishku with knives and sticks. Chinese security agencies claim that the crowd after attacking the police station raided the houses and shops of Han Chinese and killed more than 30 people. According to authorities, police resorted to firing in which more than 60 activists were killed. However, according to independent sources the death toll was more than 100. The list of violent incidents is very long despite the suppression of news and banning of international and local media from reporting.

Chinese authorities allege that Muslim extremists as well as countries inimical to China are disseminating Wahhabi Islam in this region. They are spreading fabricated stories of Chinese repression and discrimination. These forces use the internet to propagate fundamentalism and separatism among Uyghur Muslims. Chinese allege that Alim Seytoff, president of the Uyghur American Association based in Washington DC, is also behind spreading mischievous information.

ETIM and other Uyghur outfits get financial assistance and training from various terrorist groups including Al Qaeda. These terrorist outfits are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan also assists these radical organisations.

The Uyghur terrorist groups also contacted the Islamic State (IS) of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to get assistance against the Chinese government. China figures in the shortlist of countries prepared by Baghdadi where Muslims are “persecuted”. At present IS is attracting Muslim fighters from all over the world, and according to a report more than 200 Chinese Muslims have already joined IS and several others may follow. Chinese authorities are worried that once these Muslims return to China they will spread terrorism and fundamentalism in the country.

China pursues a very stringent policy against terrorism, separatism and religious fundamentalism. They are considered as a grave threat not only to the peace and tranquillity of the nation but also viewed as a formidable danger to national security and stability. The Human Rights Organisations, including Amnesty International, allege that Chinese are persecuting religious dissidents, especially Uyghur Muslims, under the garb of anti-terrorism operations.

Chinese authorities want to crush the Uyghur movement as they visualize that very soon various Islamic terrorist groups will enhance their assistance to Uyghur terrorist outfits. In this way not only will the issue get international recognition but it may escalate to Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

According to a report, the Chinese government has sent more than 200,000 Communist Party workers in the area, and $2 million would be spent on collecting intelligence about Uyghur Muslim extremist organizations and their leaders. The authorities would install electronic gadgets, including cameras, and also resort to intense house searches, checking of vehicles and strangers in the area. Mosques and other religious places would also be searched.

Several underground mosques are operating in Muslim majority areas. Chinese security forces allege that these underground mosques render shelter to terrorists. Muslims who come back from Haj also spread fundamentalism in the region.

Uyghur Muslims say that unemployment, discrimination, corruption and high handedness of the Chinese authorities are mainly responsible for the rise of Islamic extremism and terrorism. Uyghurs face discrimination in the whole of China as they are considered second grade citizens in their own country and it increases their frustration. Analysts believe that as there is no freedom of expression Muslims of the region are adopting radical Islam, and in turn terrorism.

The experts of Uyghur region point out that Chinese should stop repression and give some more religious liberty to the residents of this area otherwise terrorism would increase, and several Islamic terrorist groups which are operating in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan would render financial assistance and training to Uyghur extremists. Several Muslim countries would extend financial assistance to Uyghur fanatics, and there is no dearth of fundamentalist material on the internet.

The Chinese government machinery fabricates figures and publicizes about the establishment of trade and industry and large-scale improvement in infrastructure of the region, but fictitious figures do not satisfy the Muslim residents of the region. The Chinese government should invest in the region as mere lip service would not suffice.

China has emerged as a big economic power hence most of the countries do not want to antagonize PRC by assisting the Uyghur separatist movement. Besides, several South Asian and Central Asian countries are worried about the spread of Muslim fundamentalism. These countries do not want breakup or any political instability in China.

Uyghurs have to resort to large-scale terrorist activities to attract world attention. China must realize that it is a homegrown pro-independence movement, started because of discrimination and exploitation of the Uyghurs, and it has very little support from outside. It may not pose a major danger to the unity of a big and powerful country like China at the moment, but if Beijing does not take remedial measures to redress the grievances of Uyghur Muslims this independence movement will not only grow in Xinjiang region but also spread to other areas. At present majority of Uyghurs do not want to establish an independent Islamic state, but time and thinking change very fast.

(Jai Kumar Verma is a Delhi-based strategic analyst. He can be contacted at southasiamonitor1@gmail.com)

The post Terrorism In China’s Xinjiang Region Is Escalating – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Chris Alden and Yu-Shan Wu

The announcement of a joint agreement between the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and Hebei Iron and Steel Group to open a steel mill in Phalaborwa could signal a new stage in the longstanding relationship between South Africa and China. Financed in part by the China Africa Development Fund, the deal reportedly involves the Chinese company taking a 51% share in the joint venture and building a processing plant that will go beyond the mere extraction of resources for export and generate local employment.

This initiative is part of a trend that links up with other Chinese investments such as expansion of Hisense and the FAW automotive manufacturing plants, discussions of the revival of the Coega Industrial Development Zone and even a prospective mixed-use residential, retail and light-industry facility east of Johannesburg. The momentum building behind more than a decade and a half of cooperation is producing closer economic ties that mirror the burgeoning bilateral diplomatic relationship.

After a slow start, two way trade has accelerated since 2009, jumping by 32% between 2012 and 2013 – from R205 billion to R270 billion, making China the largest trading partner of South Africa. While total trade is still dominated by resource exports from South Africa and finished products imported from China, there has been much effort by both governments to encourage economic diversification.

As investors, however, Chinese firms have shown great caution in broaching the South African market, focusing initially on investment in the mining and construction sectors; followed by purchase of an equity share in the financial sector; then movement into manufacturing of consumer products and eventually buying stakes in local media.

According to figures by UNCTAD (in millions of USD), the Chinese FDI stock in South Africa in 2012 was $5,077 million, compared to the European Union’s $124,269 million and the US’s $11,711 million. This is partly because Chinese investors find the South African business environment very complex – including the rigid labour market and regulatory regime as well as BEE requirements – and ever fraught with perceptions of personal risks like crime. For their own part, South African firms have made some significant gains in breaking into the Chinese market with the lucrative investment of Naspers into a sensitive media sphere, more specifically the social media business Tencent, being a leading example of what can be done. In turn Naspers is an important conduit for Tencent’s entrance into the South African market as reflected by WeChat (a social media and messaging app) that appeared on the local scene in 2013.

On the diplomatic front, by way of contrast, bilateral ties have moved steadily closer over the years. Underpinning this development is the fact that South Africa and China have come to realise that they share many common perspectives on international affairs. In this regard, South Africa’s two terms on the UN Security Council provided an important opportunity to work with Beijing on a range of African issues and, in the course of interaction, develop trust.

Their joint participation as part of the BASIC group in the international climate change negotiations have helped shaped the developing country perspective, providing another opportunity to collaborate.

Bilateral defence cooperation remains modest while Chinese mediation and peacekeeping in Africa have won praise from top South African generals. The invitation to join BRICS (the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Forum) cemented South Africa’s global stature and provided a platform for its foreign policy aspirations.

And, despite the maddeningly slow process of forming the BRICS development bank, Beijing’s support for the inclusion of Africa as a possible third party recipient of loans falls squarely in line with South Africa’s continental development agenda.

Indeed, under President Jacob Zuma, the relationship is deepening, with the exchange of senior ANC personnel for management training and efforts to learn from aspects of the Chinese development experience in handling cumbersome para-statals.

And yet, even in the area of international affairs there remain issues of difference, especially on Africa. The recent allegations of a $38 million Chinese arms deal with South Sudan caused some to question the real motives of Beijing’s mediation efforts in that ongoing conflict.

Closer to home, the public outcry generated by President Ian Khama’s disappointment with the quality and pace of Chinese infrastructure projects in Botswana introduced new hesitancy on the part of potential Southern African business partners. Moreover, local businesses and trade unions continue to worry about unfair competition, the asymmetry in the trade relationship and labour practices by some Chinese firms.

This perception gap between a relationship that is expanding its official development and international cooperation into new sectors and South African and Chinese publics that continue to view each other with a measure of suspicion is a matter of mutual concern.

Indeed both governments have launched public campaigns to educate their societies, notably the current ‘South Africa Year in China’ and ‘China’s Year in South Africa’ set to run in 2015. Beyond these formal outreaches, the presence of one of the largest Chinese communities in Africa and an active civil society increase the possibilities of finding a conduit for interaction that will lay the foundation for deeper understanding.

South Africa’s ties with China display the diversity and dynamism that is to be expected from a maturing relationship. A unique trait is the willingness to engage one another and tackle any challenges through consultation.

The upcoming FOCAC 2015, a triennial ministerial meeting between China and Africa that is to be hosted by South Africa next year, promises to provide a platform where this growing bilateral relationship can be mobilised to address continental concerns.

Professor Chris Alden and Ms Yu-Shan Wu are researchers with the South Africa Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) and have recently published a paper entitled ‘South Africa and China – the making of a partnership’.

This article was published by SAIIA.

The post South Africa And China: Building Bridges To Beneficiation – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.