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EU’s Mogherini To Visit Iraq

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High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini will travel to Baghdad, Iraq on December 22 where she will be meeting the President of the Republic Fuad Masoum, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi and Foreign Minister Ibrahim al Jaafari. She will also meet with the Speaker of the Council of Representative’s (CoR) Ibrahim Al Jabouri.

Mogherini will send a message of solidarity and confirm the EU readiness to deepen the relationship with Iraq, according to the EU.

Mogherini will also travel to Erbil on December 23 where she will discuss the major challenges facing the Kurdistan region and its people with President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq Massoud Barzani and Prime-Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan Barzani, both with regard to the fight against ISIL / Da’esh and in confronting the humanitarian disaster that ISIL has created.

The EU has provided EUR 20 million in humanitarian aid and is already implementing development projects in Iraq. It stands ready to provide further political, humanitarian and development support to Iraq in its fight against violent extremism, the EU said in a statement.

Before leaving, Mogherini will visit a Christian refugees’ center where she will meet with families and children hosted by this center.

The post EU’s Mogherini To Visit Iraq appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Sri Lanka: Candidates Promise No Election Violence During Pope’s Visit

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Church officials say they have received vows from the opposition candidate and the incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa that the results of next month’s presidential election will be accepted without protests or post-election violence.

“Both [opposition and incumbent] candidates assured the bishops that they can control election violence before and after the election,” said Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith at Abhayarama Temple in Colombo on Thursday evening.

“Bishops asked them explicitly whether after the election, [they will accept] that only one will be victorious and one will be the loser. Then both agreed to welcome the Holy Father as scheduled on January 13 and avoid post-election violence,” Ranjith said at a press conference during a Congress of Religions event.

The election coincides with the long-planned papal visit on January 13-15. Concerns have been raised over the potential for violence, but also that President Mahinda Rajapaksa has tried to capitalize on the papal visit in his battle for an unprecedented third term. Last month, election posters featuring Pope Francis and Rajapaksa were displayed in neighborhoods around the capital Colombo.

Church officials, in turn, have called for a postponement of the election, while some Catholic voters have urged the pope to cancel his visit altogether.

“We appealed to the government to either postpone or give more time for the papal visit after the election,” Ranjith said.

Rajapaksa, 69, called the election two years ahead of schedule and faces an unexpected challenge from his former party general secretary and health minister, Maithripala Sirisena. They are considered the two strongest candidates among the field.

The Congress of Religions, made up of leaders from a range of faiths, appealed to the political parties to ensure free and fair elections and avoid violence.

Professor Bellanwilla Wimalaratne Thero, a Buddhist monk, said the candidates should speak truthfully without stirring up hatred.

“There was election violence in the earlier presidential elections, and we appeal [to] all citizens to exercise their rights of selecting their leader without fear,” he said.

Opposition political parties, meanwhile, demonstrated at the Elections Secretariat yesterday to call for a free and fair election.

Already, election observers say there is an increase in the number of complaints about pre-election violence compared to previous polls.

Keerthi Tennakoon, executive director of the Campaign for Free and Fair Elections, said that 317 complaints have been lodged and that police have not arrested the suspected culprits in some places.

“Several shooting incidents have been reported and an unidentified group destroyed the stage of an opposition candidate and the group burned a vehicle with a sound system for a meeting,” Tennakoon said.

“There have also been complaints that the military has been used to campaign for the president,” Tennakoon added.

The Vatican confirmed the pope’s three-day apostolic visit to the country in July. During the visit, Pope Francis is set to canonize the 17th century Indian missionary priest, Blessed Joseph Vaz.

Some lay leaders and priests expressed concern over politicization of the papal visit and appealed to the Vatican to delay his trip to the country.

Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, said he had renewed hope over the past two weeks, as the number of violent incidents began dropping. But, he said, it was important that the government takes pains to prevent violence.

“There is a possibility of post-election violence and the settling of scores in the aftermath of a close and bitterly fought election,” Perera said.

“The pope’s visit would be a positive factor in ensuring that the security forces and police do not permit post-election violence to get out of hand,” he said.

The post Sri Lanka: Candidates Promise No Election Violence During Pope’s Visit appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Troubled Russian-Polish Relations Require Sound, Humane Approach – Analysis

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Troubled Russian-Polish relations require humane ways to solve them, such as direct and constructive dialogue that allows people from both countries to hear and listen to each other, said guests of the Russian-Polish youth forum hosted in Moscow and Russia on December 13-17, 2014.

The Polish guests and the Russian participants researched the problem of repairing Polish-Russian contacts, and discussed the role and the potential of younger generation in this process during the three forum workdays that took place in the “Chistye Prudy” hotel complex in the Penza region.

Several experts paid particular attention to the problem of establishing contacts between the new generations in Russia and Poland. One of them, Paula Nangnerowicz, project coordinator at the Polish Center for Citizenship Eduction, pointed out the importance of early contacts, when their opinion of each other is formed while they are under constant influence of many factors, such as international history studies, and various potentially false notions.

In her opinion, youth conferences such as the Russian-Polish forum provide a real opportunity to openly ask questions, learn more about each other, and establish closer contacts that may be useful in the future.

“I think the best thing that we can do is meet, talk about what is important for us, what is important for you, what are our problems which are the same for us, where we are different, what we can do to remember about these similar situations and similar problems, and forget about differences,” the expert stressed.

However, Cornelia Reichel, culture management at the fund “Yulanovsk – Capital of Culture” fund for the Robert Bosch Stiftung, noted that establishing dialogue may sometimes not be easy.

“You can have dialogue only when you know the topic. I have been living in Russia for a year, and I have an impression that people in Germany and, I think, in Poland do not know what the Russians are thinking, and vice-versa – the Russians do not understand what people in Poland and German are thinking. Finding the issues we must talk over to understand each other – this is my primary mission, my primary task, and I think this idea must always be present in contacts between Russia and Poland, between Russia and Germany, between Russia, Poland and Germany,” she pointed out.

In the expert’s opinion, Russian-Polish relations have good development potential, but bringing them up to a new level would require many decades of regular and close contacts supported by various platforms for people-to-people communication.

“This is the first step, then more joint projects: if we work this way, I think it will be much better 10-20 years from now,” Cornelia Reichel believes.

At the same time, Marek Baranski, co-chairman of the Russian-Polish Youth Council, regretfully stated that current relations between two countries are far from ideal.

“We stopped understanding each other. In the last 25 years, we lost the ability to understand each other perfectly well. Of course this also shows in our international relations,” he said in an interview to “PenzaNews” agency.

In his opinion, there were several reasons for this change, including the uneasy 2014 Ukrainian conflict.

Marek Baranski stressed that establishing contact is the only way to bridge the gap between Moscow and Warsaw.

“Right now, people in Russia are sticking to their opinion, people in Poland to theirs, and there are very few platforms for discussion like this one. We simply will not luck out without dialogue,” he said.

Dmitry Gorodov, public relations specialist of the Center for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding, spoke in support of this point of view.

According to him, cultural and scientific contacts are vital for overcoming political and ideological issues in order to move on to mutual cooperation.

“The next year of culture [of Poland] in Russia is not cancelled – on the other hand, it’s been boosted. There was a large press conference of the Russian Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky: he said that culture cannot be cancelled, it’s impossible to do, and we will be opening even more for our partners in Poland and other countries. There will be other projects as well: I’m speaking not only about Russian-Polish relations, but also other projects with other countries. We are not canceling anything, only boosting the campaign in order to establish dialogue with other countries,” he stressed.

However, Dmitry Gorodov reminded that several recent events had negative impact on international relations, and current political climate forced the Russian-Polish Group on Challenging Issues to temporarily shut down.

“It included many respectable persons from both countries, and the group was active until now. Around this time, in November, they would have had another meeting in Lublin, but this did not happen at the initiative of the Polish party. We fully supported [the event], and all our representatives were ready,” he said.

Nevertheless, the representative of the Center for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding expressed his belief that constructive dialogue will resume despite the present issues.

“The politicians can negotiate, and out countries have all the potential for future mutual cooperation, including cultural affairs,” he explained.

According to Mateusz Czerniga, board member of the Polish Council of Youth Organizations, both countries need such cooperation even more than ever before.

“In Poland, one institution took some experiments. According to them, 65% of Polish people think that our relations are the worst in the history ever. The important thing is that 40% of these people think that better relations are possible, but we just have to come to the round table and talk about the problems, talk about the things which have to be solved,” he said.

From his point of view, Polish-Russian cooperation must be based not on official contacts, but on common culture, Slavic roots and common identity of both peoples.

“The current problems between Poland and Russia are that we are working on our own relations on the political level. We should come a step further, or rather a step forward, and come back to the relations between people themselves. We should talk not only on political level. We should move away some historical problems, like the things which happened during WWII, and we have to talk as people,” Mateusz Czerniga explained.

According to Konstanty Chodkowski, founder and director of the Adam Jerzy Czartoryski International Fund, this requires overcoming current stereotypes that were formed both in Poland and Russia by the media.

“If there is no knowledge, we are only thinking of stereotypes that are known to us but do not reflect the reality. They form myths, other stereotypes, bad relations: nobody wants to ask about it, nobody wants to meet with each other – they simply somehow know what they know, have vague opinion about Poland and Russia,” he stressed.

The expert expressed his belief that both Russia and Poland must allocate more funds to organizations that work to establish closer diplomatic relations between the states.

“All countries have much less useful items the authorities are spending money on. For example, how should I explain the logic of the Polish government, if the Center for Polush-Russian Dialogue and Understanding receives only 4 million zloty, while so-called ‘milk bars’ in Warsaw that sell cheap but poor-quality meals receive 26 million zloty a year. I see that it is more important for my country to support ‘milk bars’ […] rather than dialogue between Poland and Russia, because there’s no money for it. We have several research institutions: their budgets are very scarce. At the same time, ballet-dancing schools in Poland receive 40 million zloty a year. What are the priorities? I’m not against ballet-dancing schools, but I think the moment makes achieving understanding between Polish and Russian people much more important,” Konstanty Chodkowski said.

In his opinion, students exchange programs that should be promoted through city-to-city contacts can facilitate friendly relations.

“There are laws, and there is potential. Each year we can invite Polish gymnasium students to Russia and Russian school students to Poland. If this happens, they will know more about Russia and Poland right from childhood,” the expert pointed out.

In his opinion, another important task is experience exchange between people who have had first-hand contact with foreign culture.

“I know Russian language, and I’m telling people in Warsaw that Russians do not want to offend, attack or rob anyone. You know it perfectly because you live here, but it’s not so obvious in Poland,” said the analyst.

In conclusion, he stressed that closing the gap between Russia and Poland requires resolute cooperation and united force of many social organizations in each country.

“This depends only on us, on what we do after the forum: either we just had a visit, had a nice talk; or we begin doing something, building relations out of these meetings and contacts we had here. There are quite many initiatives like this all over Russia: if all people who do this unite, they’ll make a great force that can make something real,” the expert concluded.

The Russian-Polish youth forum was organized by the National youth council of Russia and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science and the Penza State University. Its main program took place in Penza on December 14-16.

The event aimed to encourage international youth cooperation, develop intercultural contacts, create of a unified infospace, and boost youth contacts of both countries.

After the three workdays of the forum, the guests of the event held a meeting with representatives of the Federal Agency on Youth Affairs in Moscow.

The second Russian-Polish youth forum is expected to take place in Poland in 2015.

This article was published by Penza News.

The post Troubled Russian-Polish Relations Require Sound, Humane Approach – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

China’s Energy Demand And South China Sea Dispute – Analysis

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By Selcuk Colakoglu

The South China Sea is known for its complex maritime disputes. Though parties involved in the disputes have been careful to keep the issue of sovereignty discussed within the frame of diplomatic debate, the problem has nonetheless seen recent escalation. From an energy security perspective, it seems that the situation might make the global agenda that much busier.

The South China Sea (SCS) has hosted and still hosts the world’s most complex system of maritime disputes. Besides disagreement on the border of the continental shelf and the delineation of exclusive economic zones, there are disputes in the Sea over who has sovereignty over various small islands and skerries.

Bordering the SCS, there are seven parties involved in the disputes over sovereignty of the islands, namely, Brunei, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Paracel and Spratly island groups, consisting of rocky archipelagos, are more or less controlled by all of these seven countries. Here, each party’s sovereignty claims overlap with those of at least two or three of the other countries, regardless if the island is a livable habitat, a rock, an atoll or a reef. Among the parties to the problem: (i) China cites two thousand year-old legislation that claims all maritime areas in the territorial waters of the other countries, including all the islands; (ii) Vietnam claims rights to the Paracel and Spratly islands, as well as the western half of the SCS; (iii) the Philippines, claims rights to the Spratly islands and the area surrounding them (iv) Taiwan claims the Paracel islands; and (v) Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia have overlapping exclusive economic zones and claims to the continental shelf.

The risk of escalation

Seeing that it is an area over which multiple actors claim sovereignty, preventing the risk of escalation in the SCS is the most important item on the agenda for the involved parties as well as the international community. In fact, in 1974 and in 1988, bloody clashes broke out between China and Vietnam over control of the Spratly and Paracel islands. In recent years, growing tension has risen among the involved countries as a result of the SCS disputes. In 2012, China created a new prefecture named Sansha that consists of the Paracel and Spratly islands, an act that was met with strong protest by Vietnam and the Philippines. Again in 2012, the blockade of Vietnamese research vessels in the SCS by the Chinese navy caused a rise in political tension between the two countries.

In 2013, the Philippines appealed to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) because of the disputes with China in the SCS, citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Generally, China prefers resolving SCS disputes through bilateral negotiations, and has thus stood in total opposition to the involvement of the ICJ in the matter.

Other countries, however, would like to resolve the problem by way of international mediation and with the help of the skillset possessed by the ICJ, thereby avoiding the assumption of a direct stance against China. Barring China and Taiwan, all five other states involved in the disputes are ASEAN members, and with the spirit of cooperation enshrined within the framework of this organization, these countries were able to adopt a common position to resolve, or at least manage, the problem without escalating political tensions. Taiwan, a nonmember of ASEAN and not even recognized as an independent state, is of a similar opinion, namely, that the issue should be resolved through negotiations as to avoid a deterioration of the matter.

On the other hand, in recent years, China is not only vocally reiterating its sovereignty claims over the SCS, but has also been pursuing a more active approach to assert these claims. In this way, the South China Sea problem is the most important issue in China-ASEAN relations.

The importance of South China Sea energy resources for China’s energy needs

China, as the world’s largest oil importer, is highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and Africa. However, the long sea route to reach these regions also poses a risk in terms of energy security for China. Therefore, China is formulating various strategies to diversify its energy suppliers and to develop its own domestic energy resources; therefore, it has begun to explore the potentials hidden beneath the SCS, which it considers to fall under Chinese sovereign territory.

In this vein, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has been appointed to prospect for deep sea oil and natural gas. In 2009, CNOOC declared a budget of $30 billion for over 20 years allotted to deep-sea resource prospection, thus showing the importance of the maritime area for the country. China now aims to complete the construction of a second deep-sea drilling platform in 2016.

China’s riparian regions that border the SCS are thought to be rich in energy resources. Here, even though there are proven energy reserves located under China’s Pearl River Delta and offshore from Hainan Island, the main wealth of the SCS is thought to be located in its southern half, off the coasts of Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

According to a recent geological survey, there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 4 trillion cubic meters of gas beneath the SCS. These figures better explain why China persistently refuses to recognize the other parties’ exclusive economic zones and claims to the continental shelf of the SCS. For logistical convenience and to minimize the security risks, after the projects around Hainan Island, China plans to start prospection and production in a region just a bit further out to sea – the Paracel Islands.

While Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei have already commenced extraction in the SCS, the Philippines and Vietnam are also preparing to begin their own extraction operations. Vietnam is exploring the Nam Con Son and Cuu Long fields, while the Philippines is doing the same around Malampa and the Reed Bank area. Additionally, as a non-oil exporter that still imports refined petroleum products, Vietnam concedes to allow some European, American, Russian, Indian and Malaysian companies to conduct prospections in various areas of the SCS. Here, Malaysia’s Petronas company, with its foreign partners, has attained the capacity to explore both coastal regions and the deep sea.

As a result, the SCS, in terms of the overlapping and contentious claims to sovereignty as well as energy security, is most likely to feature more heavily on the global agenda. The parties have been trying their best to keep the sovereignty debate within the field of diplomacy. However, at the same time, tensions regarding China’s claims to the SCS, particularly with regard to opposition posed by Vietnam and the Philippines, have exhibited a tendency of escalation in recent years. This situation may accelerate the development of the proposed military alliance between Vietnam and the Philippines, who feel that they are not strong enough in the face of the Chinese Navy. Considering this, it would not be a coincidence if the Philippines were to seek to expand its security cooperation with the US while Vietnam does the same to deepen its strategic relationship with the US.

The post China’s Energy Demand And South China Sea Dispute – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US-EU Cooperation Against Terrorism – Analysis

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By Kristin Archick*

The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States and the subsequent revelation of Al Qaeda cells in Europe gave new momentum to European Union (EU) initiatives to combat terrorism and improve police, judicial, and intelligence cooperation. The EU is a unique partnership that defines and manages economic and political cooperation among its current 28 member states.1 The EU is the latest stage in a process of European integration begun in the 1950s to promote peace and economic prosperity throughout the European continent. As part of this drive toward further European integration, the EU has long sought to harmonize policies among its members in the area of “justice and home affairs” (or JHA). Efforts in the JHA field are aimed at fostering common internal security measures while protecting the fundamental rights of EU citizens and promoting the free movement of persons within the EU.

Among other policy areas, JHA encompasses countering terrorism and cross-border crimes, police and judicial cooperation, border controls, and immigration and asylum issues. For many years, however, EU attempts to forge common JHA policies were hampered by member state concerns that doing so could infringe on their national legal systems and national sovereignty. Insufficient resources and a lack of trust among member state law enforcement agencies also impeded progress in the JHA area.

The 2001 terrorist attacks changed this status quo and served as a wake-up call for EU leaders and member state governments. In the weeks after the attacks, European law enforcement efforts to track down terrorist suspects and freeze financial assets—often in close cooperation with U.S. authorities—produced numerous arrests, especially in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Germany and Spain were identified as key logistical and planning bases for the attacks on the United States. As a result, European leaders recognized that the EU’s largely open borders and different legal systems enabled some terrorists and other criminals to move around easily and evade arrest and prosecution. For example, at the time of the 2001 attacks, most EU member states lacked anti-terrorist legislation, or even a legal definition of terrorism. Without strong evidence that a suspect had committed a crime common to all countries, terrorists or their supporters were often able to avoid apprehension in one EU country by fleeing to another with different laws and criminal codes. Moreover, although suspects could travel among EU countries quickly, extradition requests often took months or years to process.

Since the 2001 attacks, the EU has sought to speed up its efforts to harmonize national laws and bring down barriers among member states’ law enforcement authorities so that information can be meaningfully shared and suspects apprehended expeditiously. Among other steps, the EU has established a common definition of terrorism and a list of terrorist groups, an EU arrest warrant, enhanced tools to stem terrorist financing, and new measures to strengthen external EU border controls and improve aviation security. The EU has been working to bolster Europol, its joint criminal intelligence agency, and Eurojust, a unit charged with improving prosecutorial coordination in cross-border crimes in the EU.

The March 2004 terrorist bombings of commuter trains in Madrid, perpetrated by an Al Qaeda- inspired group of North Africans resident in Spain, injected a greater sense of urgency into EU counterterrorism efforts and prompted the EU to establish a Counterterrorism Coordinator, in part to enhance intelligence-sharing among EU member states. The Madrid attacks, along with the July 2005 bombings of London’s metro system that were carried out by young Muslims born and/or raised in the United Kingdom, also gave added impetus to EU initiatives aimed at improving transport security and impeding terrorist travel.

Furthermore, the terrorist incidents in Madrid and London brought the issue of “homegrown” Islamist extremism to the forefront of European political debate. Many EU countries have large and growing Muslim minorities. While the vast majority of Muslims in Europe are not involved in radical activities, the Madrid and London attacks highlighted questions about whether EU governments had done enough both to integrate Muslims into mainstream European society and to counter Islamist extremism. In December 2005, the EU adopted a new counterterrorism strategy to “prevent, protect, pursue, and respond to the international terrorist threat,” as well as a plan to combat radicalization and terrorist recruitment.2

Over the last several years, the EU has continued working to strengthen its counterterrorism capabilities. In 2008, the EU expanded its common definition of terrorism to include three new offenses: terrorist recruitment, terrorist training, and public provocation to commit terrorism, including via the Internet. In 2010, the EU issued its first-ever internal security strategy, which highlights terrorism as a key threat facing the EU and aims to develop a coherent and comprehensive EU strategy to tackle terrorism as well as organized crime, cybercrime, money laundering, and natural and man-made disasters.

Despite the death of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in May 2011, experts expect that the “Al Qaeda narrative” and Al Qaeda-related groups will likely continue to attract followers. A young French Muslim extremist who murdered seven people in the Toulouse region of France in March 2012 reportedly spent time in Pakistan and Afghanistan; according to some media accounts, he asserted that he was acting in the name of Al Qaeda before being killed himself in a shoot-out with French police. In the United Kingdom, prosecutors contended that the two Muslim extremists convicted in the brutal slaying of a British soldier in May 2013 were inspired by Al Qaeda.3 Meanwhile, the deadly July 2012 terrorist attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria—which has been linked to the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah organization—and the March 2013 conviction of a Hezbollah operative in Cyprus serve as stark reminders that Europe remains vulnerable to terrorist activity perpetrated by a number of groups in addition to Al Qaeda.

EU policy makers are also increasingly worried by reports of European citizens being recruited to fight with Islamist extremist groups in conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in Syria and Iraq. European security services warn about the potential danger such trained militants might pose should they eventually return to Europe (see the text box for more information on European fighters). Such fears have been heightened by the May 2014 killing of four people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels, Belgium. European authorities believe that this attack was carried out by a French Muslim who reportedly spent the past year with Islamist fighters in Syria.

French and Belgian officials assert that the suspect may have been associated with the terrorist group known as the Islamic State (alternatively referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, ISIL or ISIS). European concerns about the Islamic State, especially its apparent use of European Muslims as recruitment and propaganda tools, have been exacerbated by recently released videos featuring European fighters and by the beheadings since August 2014 of three Americans and two United Kingdom citizens—believed to have been carried out by a suspected British member of the Islamic State.

Amid the range of terrorist threats facing Europe, EU policy makers assert that continued vigilance and cooperation among EU member state law enforcement and intelligence services remains essential. The growing security concerns raised by European fighters in Syria and Iraq, in particular, have figured prominently in recent high-level EU ministerial discussions. In June 2013, EU officials expressed broad support for a package of 22 measures proposed by the EU’s Counterterrorism Coordinator and directed work to begin on preparing implementing measures where necessary. Information released by the EU asserts that the 22 measures focus on preventing the flow of foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq, improving information exchanges and the detection of suspicious travel, providing an adequate criminal justice response, and engaging more closely with third countries.4 In late August 2014, EU heads of state and government called for the “accelerated implementation” of this package.5

In October 2014, EU officials asserted that work should be revived urgently on an EU-wide system for the exchange of airline Passenger Name Record (PNR) data to help improve EU information-sharing on foreign fighters and keep better track of their movements. Although establishing an EU PNR system has been under discussion for years, the most recent legislative proposal has been stalled in the European Parliament—a key EU institution—since April 2013 because of data privacy and protection concerns. The Parliament has taken up consideration of the EU PNR system again in light of the foreign fighter phenomenon, but many European Parliamentarians remain skeptical, and some suggest that the possible threats posed by returning foreign fighters are being exaggerated in order to secure approval of the EU PNR system.6

Also in October 2014, EU officials agreed to strengthen security checks at external EU borders further in response to the possible foreign fighter threat. While no additional details were forthcoming from the EU, press reports suggested that member states have tasked the European Commission (the EU’s executive) with exploring ways to implement systematic electronic checks of travel documents at EU external borders and to enable cross-referencing with national police databases and existing EU border control information systems.7 In addition, EU policy makers have been holding discussions with Internet and social media companies such as Google, Twitter, and Facebook, to explore what more can be done to tackle radicalization and counter jihadist propaganda online.8

Besides the work at the EU level, a group of EU member states most affected by the foreign fighter phenomenon have been meeting regularly since 2013 under the leadership of Belgium to share information on the nature of the threat, compare policy measures, and discuss intensified cooperation. In early July 2014, several of these EU countries agreed to an “action plan” broadly aimed at stopping Europeans from going to fight in Syria and Iraq, improving the monitoring of returning European fighters, and increasing information exchanges.9 EU officials maintain that while the measures agreed in the “action plan” will be implemented by the competent national authorities, they will also be promoted at the EU level.10

Despite the political commitment of EU leaders to promote greater cooperation on Justice and Home Affairs issues and to improve the EU’s collective ability to better combat terrorism, forging common internal security policies has been challenging. Different views among member states and between EU institutions on issues such as data privacy or intelligence-sharing often complicate harmonizing national laws or establishing EU-wide policies in the JHA field. While the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, which entered into force in December 2009, allows member states to use a qualified majority voting system for most JHA decisions to speed EU decision-making, EU member states still strive for consensus as much as possible. At the same time, the Lisbon Treaty adds another actor—the European Parliament—into the JHA policy-making process by giving it the right to approve or reject most JHA-related legislation.11 Some analysts suggest that like other EU counterterrorism policies over the years, progress on EU measures to address the potential foreign fighter threat—especially those related to improving information-sharing—has been slowed by national sovereignty sensitivities in some member states and European Parliament concerns that pending proposals not undermine EU data protection standards.

In addition, implementation of many EU policies in the JHA field is up to the member states, and lag times may exist between when an agreement is reached in Brussels and when it is implemented at the national level. Furthermore, EU member states retain national control over their law enforcement and judicial authorities, and some national police and intelligence services remain reluctant to share information with each other or with Europol. In short, efforts to enhance EU-wide cooperation against terrorism and other cross-border crimes remain works in progress.

U.S.-EU Counterterrorism Cooperation: Progress to Date and Ongoing Challenges

As part of the EU’s efforts to combat terrorism since September 11, 2001, the EU made improving law enforcement and intelligence cooperation with the United States a top priority. The previous George W. Bush Administration and many Members of Congress largely welcomed this EU initiative in the hopes that it would help root out terrorist cells in Europe and beyond that could be planning other attacks against the United States or its interests. Such growing U.S.-EU cooperation was in line with the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations that the United States should develop a “comprehensive coalition strategy” against Islamist terrorism, “exchange terrorist information with trusted allies,” and improve border security through better international cooperation. Some measures in the resulting Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-458) and in the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-53) mirrored these sentiments and were consistent with U.S.-EU counterterrorism efforts, especially those aimed at improving border controls and transport security.

U.S.-EU cooperation against terrorism has led to a new dynamic in U.S.-EU relations by fostering dialogue on law enforcement and homeland security issues previously reserved for bilateral discussions with individual EU member states. Despite some frictions, most U.S. policy makers and analysts view the developing partnership with the EU in these areas as positive. Like its predecessor, the Obama Administration has supported U.S. cooperation with the EU in the fields of counterterrorism, border controls, and transport security.

At the November 2009 U.S.-EU Summit in Washington, DC, the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to work together to combat terrorism and enhance cooperation in the broader JHA field. In June 2010, the United States and the EU adopted a “Declaration on Counterterrorism” aimed at deepening the already close U.S.-EU relationship and highlighting the commitment of both sides to combat terrorism within the rule of law. In June 2011, President Obama’s National Strategy for Counterterrorism asserted that in addition to working with European allies bilaterally, “the United States will continue to partner with the European Parliament and European Union to maintain and advance CT efforts that provide mutual security and protection to citizens of all nations while also upholding individual rights.” The EU has also been a key U.S. partner in the 30-member Global Counterterrorism Forum, founded in September 2011 as a multilateral body aimed at mobilizing resources and expertise to counter violent extremism, strengthen criminal justice and rule of law capacities, and enhance international counterterrorism cooperation.12

Recently, U.S. and EU officials have been discussing ways to combat the foreign fighter phenomenon given increasing concerns that both European and American Muslims are being recruited to fight with Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq. U.S. policy makers, including some Members of Congress, have expressed worries in particular about such foreign fighters in light of short-term visa-free travel arrangements between the United States and most EU countries. In early July 2014, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder asserted, “We have a mutual and compelling interest in developing shared strategies for confronting the influx of U.S. and European-born violent extremists in Syria. And because our citizens can freely travel, visa-free … the problem of ighters in Syria returning to any of our countries is a problem for all of our countries.”13 In September 2014, the White House noted that U.S. officials from the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security are “working closely” with EU counterparts to “address a wide range of measures focused on enhancing counter-radicalization, border security, aviation security, and information sharing” to address potential threats posed by foreign fighters.14

Nevertheless, some challenges remain in the evolving U.S.-EU counterterrorism relationship. Among the most prominent are long-standing data privacy and data protection concerns, which have long complicated a range of U.S.-EU information-sharing agreements and have received renewed attention in the wake of the unauthorized disclosures since June 2013 of U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance activities. Other issues that have led to periodic tensions include detainee policies, differences in the U.S. and EU terrorist designation lists, and balancing measures to improve border controls and border security with the need to facilitate legitimate transatlantic travel and commerce.

Developing U.S.-EU Links

Contacts between U.S. and EU officials—from the cabinet level to the working level—on police, judicial, and border control policy matters have increased substantially since 2001, and have played a crucial role in developing closer U.S.-EU ties. The U.S. Departments of State, Justice, Homeland Security, and the Treasury have been actively engaged in this process.15 The Secretary of State, U.S. Attorney General, and Secretary of Homeland Security meet at the ministerial level with their respective EU counterparts at least once a year, and a U.S.-EU working group of senior officials meets once every six months to discuss police and judicial cooperation against terrorism. In addition, the United States and the EU have developed a regular dialogue on terrorist financing and have established a high-level policy dialogue on border and transport security to discuss issues such as passenger data-sharing, cargo security, biometrics, visa policy, and sky marshals. Over the last few years, U.S. and EU officials have also engaged in expert-level dialogues on critical infrastructure protection and resilience, and preventing violent extremism.

U.S. and EU agencies have also established reciprocal liaison relationships. Europol has posted two liaison officers in Washington, DC, and the United States has stationed an FBI officer in The Hague, Netherlands, to work with Europol on counterterrorism. A U.S. Secret Service liaison posted in The Hague also works with Europol on counterfeiting issues. In 2006, a U.S. liaison position was established at Eurojust headquarters in The Hague as part of a wider U.S.-Eurojust agreement to facilitate cooperation between European and U.S. prosecutors on terrorism and other cross-border criminal cases.

New Law Enforcement and Intelligence Cooperation Agreements
U.S.-EU efforts against terrorism have produced a number of new accords that seek to improve police and judicial cooperation. In 2001 and 2002, two U.S.-Europol agreements were concluded to allow U.S. law enforcement authorities and Europol to share both “strategic” information (threat tips, crime patterns, and risk assessments) as well as “personal” information (such as names, addresses, and criminal records). U.S.-EU negotiations on the personal information accord proved especially arduous, as U.S. officials had to overcome worries that the United States did not meet EU data protection standards. The EU considers the privacy of personal data a basic right, and EU regulations are written to keep such data out of the hands of law enforcement authorities as much as possible. EU data protection concerns also reportedly slowed negotiations over the 2006 U.S.-Eurojust cooperation agreement noted above. In 2007, the United States and the EU also signed an agreement that sets common standards for the security of classified information to facilitate the exchange of such information.

In 2010, two new U.S.-EU-wide treaties on extradition and mutual legal assistance (MLA) entered into force following their approval by the U.S. Senate and the completion of the ratification process in all EU member states.16 These treaties, signed by U.S. and EU leaders in 2003, seek to harmonize the bilateral accords that already exist between the United States and individual EU members, simplify the extradition process, and promote better information-sharing and prosecutorial cooperation. Washington and Brussels hope that these two agreements will be useful tools in combating not only terrorism, but other transnational crimes such as financial fraud, organized crime, and drug and human trafficking.

In negotiating the extradition and MLA agreements, the U.S. death penalty and the extradition of EU nationals posed particular challenges. Washington effectively agreed to EU demands that suspects extradited from the EU will not face the death penalty, which EU law bans. U.S. officials also relented on initial demands that the treaty guarantee the extradition of any EU national. They stress, however, that the extradition accord modernizes existing bilateral agreements with individual EU members, streamlines the exchange of information and transmission of documents, and sets rules for determining priority in the event of competing extradition requests between the United States and EU member states. The MLA treaty will provide U.S. authorities access to European bank account and financial information in criminal investigations, speed MLA request processing, allow the acquisition of evidence (including testimony) by video conferencing, and permit the participation of U.S. authorities in joint EU investigations.17

Despite these growing U.S.-EU ties and agreements in the law enforcement area, some U.S. critics continue to doubt the utility of collaborating with EU-wide bodies given good existing bilateral relations between the FBI and CIA (among other agencies) and national police and intelligence services in EU member states. Many note that Europol lacks enforcement capabilities, and that its effectiveness to assess and analyze terrorist threats and other criminal activity largely depends on the willingness of national services to provide it with information. Meanwhile, European officials complain that the United States expects intelligence from others, but does not readily share its own. Others contend that European opposition to the U.S. death penalty or resistance to handing over their own nationals may still slow or prevent the timely provision of legal assistance and the extradition of terrorist suspects in some cases.

Tracking and Suppressing Terrorist Financing

The United States and the EU have been active partners in efforts to track and stem terrorist financing. The two sides cooperate frequently in global forums, such as the United Nations and the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force, to suppress terrorist financing and to improve international financial investigative tools. The United States and the EU both benefit from an agreement that allows U.S. authorities access to financial data held by a Belgian-based consortium of international banks—known as SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications—as part of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Terrorist Finance Tracking Program (TFTP). U.S. authorities have shared over 2,000 leads resulting from the SWIFT data with European governments, and U.S. and EU officials assert that many of these leads have helped in the prevention or investigation of terrorist attacks in Europe.18 However, the TFTP and the U.S.-EU agreement permitting the sharing of SWIFT data remains controversial in Europe due to ongoing data privacy concerns. (For more information on the U.S.-EU SWIFT agreement, see “Promoting Information-Sharing and Protecting Data Privacy” below).

Designating Terrorist Individuals and Groups

U.S. and EU officials have worked together successfully since 2001 to bridge many gaps in their respective lists of individuals and groups that engage in terrorist activities, viewing such efforts as important in terms of symbolically presenting a united U.S.-EU front, and in helping to curb terrorist financing. The EU maintains two separate lists of terrorist organizations and individuals. One list focuses on persons and groups associated with Al Qaeda and the Taliban that essentially enacts into EU law the post-9/11 U.N. Security Council sanctions against those individuals and organizations; it has been frequently updated over the years and now includes Al Qaeda-affiliated groups such as Jabhat al Nusra in Syria and the Nigerian-based Boko Haram.19 The second EU list, which contains terrorist persons or entities not affiliated with Al Qaeda, is often referred to as the EU’s “common terrorist list” or “blacklist;” the composition of this list has been controversial at times and the subject of U.S.-EU debate.

The consolidated version of the EU’s “common terrorist list” or “blacklist” includes over 80 individuals or entities based both in Europe and worldwide.20 However, the specific law enforcement measures applied to those named depends on whether an individual or organization is considered “external” to the EU (i.e., those based primarily outside of EU territory such as Hamas and Hezbollah) or “internal” (i.e., those based within EU territory such as the Basque group ETA, the Real IRA, or the Italian anarchist Red Brigade). For “external” persons and groups, all EU member states are legally obligated to freeze the assets of those named, ensure that financial resources are not made available to them (within EU jurisdiction), and provide law enforcement assistance to each other in related police investigations and legal proceedings.21 For “internal” persons and groups, inclusion on the EU’s common terrorist list formally subjects them only to the list’s strengthened police cooperation measures, but national governments generally seek to apply their own sanctions to stem financing for such individuals and entities.22
In order for a person or entity to be added to (or deleted from) the EU’s common terrorist list, there must be unanimous agreement among all EU member states. Over the last decade, the United States and other countries have successfully lobbied the EU to add several organizations— such as the Turkish-based Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), some Palestinian groups (including Hamas’ military and political wings in 2001 and 2003 respectively), and Hezbollah’s military wing (in July 2013)—to the EU’s common terrorist list. The United States has also taken some cues from the EU and has included a number of members of the Basque separatist group ETA, among others, to its terrorist designation lists.23

Nevertheless, fully harmonizing the U.S. and EU terrorist designation lists has presented challenges, and generated some frictions periodically. For example, the EU remains hesitant about adding some suspected Hamas-related charities to its common terrorist list because some EU members view them as separate entities engaged in political or social work.24 Several charities that the United States has designated as fronts for Hamas, such as the UK-based Interpal, have been investigated by European national authorities but have been cleared of funding Hamas terrorist activities. Given that such charities have passed scrutiny at the national level, it is unlikely that EU governments would agree to blacklist them at the EU level.25

For many years, EU member states were also divided on whether the Lebanese-based Hezbollah organization should be included on the EU’s common terrorist list. The United States considers Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, to be a foreign terrorist organization and applies financial and other sanctions to the group and its members. While some EU member states, such as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, had long supported adding either all or part of Hezbollah to the EU’s common list, France and other members had opposed doing so.

Traditionally, EU members that were hesitant about putting Hezbollah on the EU’s common list argued that it would be counterproductive to managing relations with Lebanon given Hezbollah’s role in the Lebanese government and its representation in Lebanon’s parliament. Some EU member states were also apparently reluctant to add Hezbollah to the EU’s list because they viewed Hezbollah as providing needed social services in some of Lebanon’s poorest communities. On the other hand, critics of Hezbollah’s absence from the EU’s list contended that Hezbollah was responsible for numerous terrorist attacks in the Middle East and elsewhere, and that Hezbollah had long used Europe as a primary base for fundraising and financial services. Those in favor of including Hezbollah on the EU’s list also noted that Hezbollah leaders themselves reportedly admitted that if the EU were to blacklist the group, it would have serious negative implications for Hezbollah’s financial and moral support in Europe.26

Over the last two years, several events led to a renewed debate within the EU on Hezbollah, and to repeated U.S. (and Israeli) calls for the EU to add Hezbollah to its common terrorist list. These included the July 2012 bombing at an airport in Burgas, Bulgaria (in which five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian bus driver were killed) that has been linked to Hezbollah, as well as the March 2013 conviction in Cyprus of a Hezbollah operative (with dual Lebanese-Swedish citizenship) involved in planning attacks on Israeli tourists there. In addition, Hezbollah’s increased profile in lending active military and logistical support to the Syrian government of Bashar al Asad, despite the regime’s violent response to the popular uprising and civil war, heightened concerns about the group and prompted further appeals—both from within and outside Europe—urging EU action against Hezbollah.

By late spring 2013, it appeared that a consensus was forming among EU member states to put Hezbollah’s military wing on the EU’s terrorist list, but not the entire Hezbollah organization. Many observers viewed this as a “compromise” position that would be more amenable to those EU members still concerned that adding all of Hezbollah could destabilize Lebanon and reduce the EU’s influence in the region. In late July 2013, the EU announced that its 28 member states had agreed to add Hezbollah’s military wing to its common terrorist list. In adopting this decision, however, the EU also asserted that doing so “does not prevent the continuation of dialogue with all political parties in Lebanon,” nor the “legitimate transfers to Lebanon and the delivery of assistance, including humanitarian assistance, from the European Union and its Member States in Lebanon.”27 With this statement, the EU sought to underline that its decision to add Hezbollah’s military wing to its terrorist list would not preclude the EU from interacting with Lebanon’s government, which includes ministers associated with Hezbollah.

Many analysts judge that some of the most important implications of the EU’s decision may be largely symbolic, in terms of sending Hezbollah a message that the EU will not tolerate terrorist attacks within its borders and that the organization’s terrorist activities will endanger any legitimacy it may have as a political and social actor. Some experts hope that the EU designation will spur EU governments to initiate or enhance intelligence investigations into activities that may be tied to Hezbollah’s military wing, and thus make Europe a far less attractive base of operations for Hezbollah.

Nevertheless, critics contended that listing only Hezbollah’s military wing was insufficient because Hezbollah would still be allowed to fundraise in Europe. Those of this view argue that there is no meaningful distinction between Hezbollah’s political and military wings, and note that the EU has not provided authoritative guidance on how to distinguish between what it views as these two wings.28
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have long urged the EU to include Hezbollah on its common terrorist list. Following Bulgaria’s announcement in February 2013 implicating Hezbollah in the Burgas bombing, the Obama Administration called on Europe “to take proactive action to uncover Hezbollah’s infrastructure and disrupt the group’s financing schemes and operational networks in order to prevent future attacks.”29 In the wake of the Burgas bombing, individual Members and groups of Members, in both the House and Senate, sent several letters to EU officials and institutions calling upon the EU to add Hezbollah to its terrorist list. At the end of the 112th Congress, the Senate passed S.Res. 613 in December 2012, and the House passed H.Res. 834 in January 2013, both of which called on the governments of Europe and the EU to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and to impose sanctions. The Obama Administration and many Members of Congress have welcomed the EU’s decision to put Hezbollah’s military wing on its common terrorist list as a positive step.30

Promoting Information-Sharing and Protecting Data Privacy

Although the United States and the EU both recognize the importance of sharing information in an effort to track and disrupt terrorist activity, data privacy has been and continues to be a key U.S.-EU sticking point. As noted previously, the EU considers the privacy of personal data a basic right; EU data privacy regulations set out common rules for public and private entities in the EU that hold or transmit personal data, and prohibit the transfer of such data to countries where legal protections are not deemed “adequate.” In the negotiation of several U.S.-EU information- sharing agreements, some EU officials have been concerned about whether the United States could guarantee a sufficient level of protection for European citizens’ personal data. In particular, some Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and many European civil liberty groups have long argued that elements of U.S.-EU information-sharing agreements violate the privacy rights of EU citizens.

The unauthorized disclosures since June 2013 of U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance programs and the spate of subsequent allegations of U.S. collection activities in Europe (including reports that U.S. intelligence agencies have monitored EU diplomatic offices and computer networks, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s mobile phone) have strained transatlantic trust and exacerbated EU worries about U.S. data protection safeguards.31

Consequently, many analysts are increasingly concerned about the future of U.S.-EU information- sharing arrangements, especially given the deep dismay of many MEPs. As discussed in this section, many U.S.-EU information-sharing accords require the approval of the European Parliament, which has not been shy in the past about opposing or demanding changes to accords such as SWIFT and the U.S.-EU Passenger Name Record (PNR) agreement that permits sharing airline passenger data. The U.S.-EU SWIFT agreement will be up for renewal in 2015, and the PNR accord in 2019.

In July 2013, the European Parliament passed a resolution expressing serious concerns about the reported U.S. surveillance programs and established its own special working group (within the Parliament’s civil liberties committee) to investigate the alleged U.S. collection activities, as well as similar, related surveillance practices by security services in certain EU member states.32 The Parliament’s working group was chaired by Claude Moraes, a British MEP from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) political group. In March 2014, the full Parliament adopted the so-called “Moraes report,” which was deeply critical of the NSA’s alleged mass surveillance programs and contained a number of recommendations pertaining to a wide range of U.S.-EU security and economic issues.33

With respect to U.S-EU information-sharing arrangements, the “Moraes report” noted concerns about the U.S.-EU PNR accord and reiterated previous calls from some MEPs to suspend the SWIFT agreement. The “Moraes report” also urged the swift conclusion of the ongoing negotiations on the umbrella U.S.-EU Data Privacy and Protection Agreement (DPPA), and called on the United States to revise its legislation to recognize the privacy rights of EU citizens and to provide them with judicial remedies for any potential violations. Although the Parliament’s resolution approving the “Moraes report” is not binding on the European Commission or the EU’s member states, it does express the “sense” of the Parliament (similar to House and Senate resolutions) and carries a degree of political weight.

The reported NSA programs and other alleged U.S. spying activities have also spurred the European Parliament to demand that EU data protection reforms, which have been under discussion in the EU since early 2012, should include even stronger safeguards than those initially proposed by the European Commission for data transferred outside the EU, including to the United States. In March 2014, the full European Parliament approved a version of EU data protection reform legislation that would require U.S.-based Internet firms, social media companies, and telecommunication providers to obtain the approval of European officials before complying with any U.S. warrants for personal data of EU citizens; significant monetary penalties would be imposed should companies fail to comply. U.S. officials and business leaders worry that such provisions could impede U.S.-European law enforcement cooperation and be overly burdensome for U.S. companies, potentially putting U.S. firms in a situation in which they are forced to choose between complying with U.S. legal demands for data and EU rules that may prohibit its transfer. The Parliament’s version of the EU’s data protection reform package, however, must still be approved by EU member states, at least some of which appear concerned about their potential negative impact on European technology firms and economic growth.34

U.S. officials have sought to reassure EU leaders and MEPs that U.S. surveillance activities operate within U.S. law and are subject to oversight by all three branches of the U.S. government. Some observers note that the United States has been striving to demonstrate that it takes EU concerns seriously and is open to improving transparency, in part to maintain European support for the SWIFT and the PNR accords. At the EU’s request, a high-level U.S.-EU working group was established to discuss the reported NSA surveillance operations, especially the so-called PRISM program (in which the NSA allegedly collected data from leading U.S. Internet companies), and to assess the “proportionality” of such programs and their implications for the privacy rights of EU citizens.35
In November 2013, the European Commission (the EU’s executive) issued a report on the findings of this working group, along with recommendations for addressing European concerns about U.S.-EU data flows and restoring transatlantic trust.36 U.S. and EU policy makers have been seeking possible ways to implement some of the Commission’s proposals. In June 2014, U.S. Attorney General Holder announced that as part of efforts to conclude the DPPA, the Obama Administration would seek to work with Congress to enact legislation to provide EU citizens with the right to pursue redress in U.S. courts for certain data privacy violations—a key EU demand.

The U.S.-EU SWIFT Accord

Controversy over Europe’s role in the U.S. Terrorist Finance Tracking Program surfaced originally in 2006, following press reports that U.S. authorities had been granted secret access to SWIFT financial data since 2001. In an attempt to assure Europeans that their personal data was being protected, U.S. officials asserted that SWIFT data was used only for counterterrorism purposes, was obtained by the U.S. Treasury Department by administrative subpoena, and that no data mining occurred as part of the TFTP. In June 2007, the United States and the EU reached a deal to allow continued U.S. access to SWIFT data for counterterrorism purposes, but some European politicians and privacy groups remained worried about whether the program was consistent with EU rights and data protection standards.37

In 2009, changes to SWIFT’s systems architecture—including a reduction in the amount of data stored on U.S. servers and the transfer of a large portion of data to a storage location in Europe— necessitated a new U.S.-EU agreement to permit the continued sharing of SWIFT data with the U.S. Treasury Department. In November 2009, the European Commission reached a new accord with the United States on SWIFT. However, under the EU’s new Lisbon Treaty, the European Parliament gained the right to approve or reject international agreements such as the SWIFT accord by majority vote. In February 2010, the Parliament rejected this new version of the U.S.- EU SWIFT agreement by a vote of 378 to 196 (with 31 abstentions); those MEPs who opposed the accord claimed that it did not contain sufficient protections to safeguard the personal data and privacy rights of EU citizens. Given the EP’s long-standing concerns about SWIFT and the TFTP, many observers were not surprised that some MEPs took the opportunity to both assert the Parliament’s new powers and to halt U.S. access to much of the SWIFT data until their views regarding the protection of data privacy and civil liberties were taken on board more fully.

In May 2010, the European Commission and U.S. authorities began negotiating a revised U.S.- EU SWIFT agreement that could garner the necessary Parliament support. Two key EP concerns related to guaranteeing judicial remedy for European citizens in the United States in the event of possible data abuse, and the use of “bulk data” transfers. Many MEPs wanted more targeted transfers and less data included in any transfer, but U.S. and EU officials contended that such “bulk” transfers were essentially how the SWIFT system worked and had to be maintained for technical reasons. Some MEPs also called for greater supervision by an “appropriate EU- appointed authority” over U.S. access to SWIFT data.38

In June 2010, U.S. and EU officials concluded a new draft SWIFT agreement. Among other provisions, the draft provided for the possibility of administrative and legal redress for EU citizens in the United States and gave Europol the authority to approve or reject U.S. Treasury Department requests for SWIFT data. Press reports indicated, however, that some MEPs were still unhappy with several of the draft’s provisions. In order to avoid another “no” vote by the Parliament, EU and U.S. officials agreed to two additional changes to the draft. First, a new provision was included in the draft effectively guaranteeing that an independent observer appointed by the European Commission would be based in Washington, DC, to oversee (along with SWIFT personnel) the extraction of SWIFT data.39 The second change required the European Commission to present plans for an EU equivalent to the U.S. TFTP within a year. Such a “European TFTP” would be aimed at enabling the EU to extract SWIFT data on European soil and send the targeted results onward to U.S. authorities, thereby avoiding “bulk data” transfers to the United States in the longer term.40

The European Parliament approved the latest iteration of the U.S.-EU SWIFT accord on July 8, 2010, by 484 votes to 109 (with 12 abstentions). The agreement entered into force on August 1, 2010, for a period of five years. Some MEPs, however, were still concerned about the EU’s role in the U.S. TFTP and whether the SWIFT accord was being properly implemented. Several MEPs criticized Europol for too readily approving vague U.S. requests for SWIFT data. As part of a review of the U.S.-EU SWIFT agreement released in March 2011, the European Commission recommended certain measures to help make the TFTP more transparent, including by providing more information to Europol in writing. In December 2012, the Commission released the results of a second review of the agreement. This second review concluded that the TFTP had provided concrete benefits in the fight against terrorism (including for EU countries), that the agreement’s safeguards were being properly implemented, and that the recommendations presented in the first review report of 2011 had been followed up to a large extent.41

As noted previously, the unauthorized disclosures since June 2013 of alleged U.S. surveillance activities in Europe have renewed European concerns, especially in the European Parliament, about how the United States handles the personal data of EU citizens. In October 2013, following press reports that the NSA had purportedly monitored German Chancellor Merkel’s mobile phone and additional allegations of NSA collection operations in France, Spain, and other EU countries, the Parliament passed by a slight majority a non-binding resolution calling for the immediate suspension of the U.S.-EU SWIFT accord.42 The EP’s March 2014 resolution approving the “Moraes report” also asserted that the U.S.-EU SWIFT agreement should be suspended. Although these resolutions are largely symbolic (actually suspending the SWIFT accord would require the European Commission and the member states to take action and they are not inclined to do so), experts are concerned that future iterations of the SWIFT accord may not be able to secure the required Parliament approval. In November 2013, the European Commission issued another review of the TFTP, noting that the U.S.-EU agreement on the use of SWIFT data had generated significant leads for European intelligence services and had been helpful in investigating numerous terrorist threats, including during the 2012 London Olympics and those posed by EU nationals training with Islamist extremist groups in Syria.43

Passenger Name Record (PNR) Data

In May 2004, the United States and EU reached an initial agreement permitting airlines operating flights to or from the United States to provide U.S. authorities with passenger name record data in their reservation and departure control systems within 15 minutes of a flight’s departure (in order to comply with provisions in the U.S. Aviation and Transportation Security Act of 2001, P.L. 107- 71). This PNR accord was controversial in Europe because of fears that it violated the privacy rights of EU citizens and did not contain sufficient protections to safeguard their personal data. As a result, the European Parliament lodged a case against the PNR agreement in the EU Court of Justice; in May 2006, the Court annulled the PNR accord on grounds that it had not been negotiated on the proper legal basis. EU officials stressed, however, that the Court did not rule that the agreement infringed on European privacy rights.

In July 2007, the United States and the EU concluded negotiations on a new, seven-year agreement to ensure the continued transfer of PNR data. U.S. officials appeared pleased with several provisions of this new deal, such as allowing the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to share PNR data with other U.S. agencies engaged in the fight against terrorism; extending the length of time that the United States could store such data (from 31⁄2 to 15 years ultimately); and permitting the United States to access sensitive information about a passenger’s race, ethnicity, religion, and health in exceptional circumstances. The new accord also required airlines to send data from their reservation systems to U.S. authorities at least 72 hours before a flight’s departure. The United States agreed, however, to reduce the number of fields from which data would be collected, from 34 to 19.44

Although the 2007 U.S.-EU PNR agreement was provisionally in force since its signing, the European Parliament had to approve it in order for the accord to be formally signed and remain in force. Many MEPs, however, objected to key elements of the 2007 agreement, including the amount of PNR data transferred; the length of time such data could be kept; and what they viewed as an inadequate degree of redress available for European citizens for possible data misuse. Some MEPs also worried that U.S. authorities might use PNR data for “data mining” or “data profiling” purposes. At the same time, many MEPs recognized that rejecting the U.S.-EU PNR agreement would create legal uncertainties and practical difficulties for both travelers and air carriers. As such, in May 2010, the Parliament agreed to postpone its vote on the 2007 PNR deal, calling instead upon the European Commission to present a “global external PNR strategy” setting out general requirements for all EU PNR agreements with other countries; the EP essentially expected that the EU PNR deal with the United States (as well as similar EU agreements on PNR data pending with Australia and Canada) would be renegotiated to conform to the new PNR standards put forth by the Commission.45

In September 2010, the European Commission issued its “global external PNR strategy”46 and called for the renegotiation of the EU’s PNR agreements with the United States, Australia, and Canada. Among other general principles proposed in the “external PNR strategy,” the Commission asserted that PNR data should be used exclusively to combat terrorism and other serious transnational crimes, passengers should be given clear information about the exchange of their PNR data and have the right to effective administrative and judicial redress, and that a decision to deny a passenger the right to board an airplane must not be based solely on the automated processing of PNR data. The Commission also proclaimed that the categories of PNR data exchanged should be as limited as possible and that PNR data should be retained no longer than absolutely necessary. In November 2010, the European Parliament welcomed the Commission’s PNR strategy and endorsed the opening of new PNR negotiations with the United States. The Parliament emphasized, however, that the exchange of PNR data must be both “necessary” and “proportional,” reiterated that PNR data must not be used for data mining or profiling, and called on the Commission to also explore less intrusive alternatives.47

Although many U.S. officials had been wary about reopening negotiations on the PNR accord, the Obama Administration assented to discussing at least some adjustments, largely in recognition of the fact that the EP was unlikely to approve the 2007 agreement. U.S.-EU negotiations on a revised PNR accord were launched in December 2010. U.S. officials continued to maintain that the 2007 accord sufficiently protected both the data collected and individual privacy rights; they noted that two joint reviews conducted by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the European Commission since 2004 confirmed that the United States had not misused the PNR data. U.S. policy makers asserted that any revised PNR agreement must not degrade the operational effectiveness of the current PNR program and should permit further enhancements. U.S. officials also cautioned that any new PNR agreement with the EU must not invalidate bilateral PNR deals that the United States had concluded with various EU member states.48 In mid-May 2011, resolutions were introduced in the House (H.Res. 255) and passed in the Senate (S.Res. 174) essentially supporting the existing 2007 U.S.-EU PNR accord and urging DHS to reject any efforts by the EU to modify the agreement in a way that would degrade its usefulness in the fight against terrorism.

In late May 2011, the United States and the European Commission concluded negotiations on a revised PNR agreement, a draft of which was leaked to the press. According to U.S. officials, the draft contained new innovations to enhance the protection of passengers’ personal information. For example, the May 2011 agreement introduced a new provision whereby after six months, portions of a passenger’s record would be depersonalized and “masked” (or hidden); it decreased the time that PNR data would be stored in an “active” database; and progressively restricted the number of authorized personnel with access to the data. U.S. officials contended that the draft accord provided greater legal certainty and clarity on a passenger’s rights to redress, and affirmed that the United States would not make a decision to deny boarding based solely on the automated processing of PNR data. In addition, it recognized that should the EU in the future develop its own PNR system, the parties would consult to determine if it necessitated making any changes to the existing accord in order to ensure full reciprocity between the two systems.49

Despite these revisions to the U.S.-EU PNR agreement, press reports indicated that some MEPs remained unsatisfied. They pointed out that the May 2011 version of the accord still allowed the United States to retain passenger data ultimately for up to 15 years (albeit in a “dormant” state after 5 years), did not reduce the amount of data transferred, and increased the requirement that airlines transmit the data to U.S. authorities from 72 hours before a flight departs to at least 96 hours. Furthermore, some MEPs worried that the new deal broadened the use of PNR data to more criminal offenses than contained in the 2007 iteration.50

In October 2011, the House Homeland Security Committee’s Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence held a hearing on intelligence-sharing and terrorist travel, at which the negotiations on the U.S.-EU PNR agreement figured prominently. U.S. officials testifying at the hearing asserted that the May 2011 draft of the PNR accord was stronger than the 2007 version, preserving and in some cases improving its operational effectiveness. At the same time, they noted, it addressed all concerns raised by the EU, including those pertaining to data security and protection, the scope of offenses covered, and the right of passengers to redress.51

Nevertheless, in an effort to further assuage European concerns, U.S. and EU negotiators continued to work on revising the PNR accord. In November 2011, the United States and the EU concluded a new draft PNR agreement, which the European Commission asserted contained “real improvements” over the version leaked in May. Although the November 2011 iteration was similar to the May 2011 version and retained many of its same provisions, two further changes were included that were aimed at meeting EU demands: limiting the use of PNR data specifically to terrorist or other serious transnational crimes that could result in three years or more in prison; and varying the retention time depending on the type of crime under investigation (data would still be retained ultimately for 15 years for terrorist investigations, but only 10 years for investigations into other types of crimes).52

In December 2011, EU member states approved the new U.S.-EU PNR agreement, although Germany and Austria abstained because they still viewed the data retention and redress provisions in the new accord as insufficient. Some MEPs shared these concerns, maintaining that the additional changes in the November 2011 PNR accord were largely cosmetic and that it should therefore be rejected. Other MEPs backed the new agreement, noting European Commission arguments that the accord contained stronger data protection guarantees than the 2007 version. A number of MEPs asserted they would vote for the 2011 accord despite some misgivings regarding the data privacy safeguards because in their view, it was better to have an agreement providing the airlines with legal certainty than no agreement at all (the Commission contended that should the Parliament reject this latest version of the PNR agreement, the United States had made clear there would be no further negotiations).53

On April 19, 2012, the full Parliament approved the U.S.-EU PNR agreement by a vote of 409 to 226, with 33 abstentions. U.S. officials welcomed the Parliament’s endorsement, asserting that it reaffirmed the shared commitment of the United States and the EU to countering terrorism and other transnational threats while protecting privacy and other civil rights.54 The new U.S.-EU PNR accord took effect on June 1, 2012, and will be valid until 2019.
In November 2013, the European Commission published the results of the most recent U.S.-EU joint review of the PNR program. The Commission asserted that the PNR agreement provides an efficient tool to fight terrorism and other serious international crimes; it also noted that U.S. authorities respect their obligations under the accord and are implementing it correctly.55 Nevertheless, in light of the renewed unease about U.S. data protection safeguards following the allegations of U.S. surveillance activities, some MEPs have raised questions about the PNR program. The Parliament’s March 2014 resolution approving the “Moraes report” called on the European Commission to respond to concerns about whether U.S. laws provide adequate protection for PNR data saved in cloud systems operating on U.S. soil.

U.S.-EU Data Privacy and Protection Agreement

Many U.S. and EU leaders believe that law enforcement information-sharing agreements such as SWIFT and PNR are vital tools in the fight against terrorism. At the same time, U.S. officials have often been frustrated by the need for painstaking and often time-consuming negotiations with the EU on every individual agreement that involves sharing personal data between the two sides. For many years, Washington has sought to establish an umbrella agreement in which the EU would largely accept U.S. data privacy standards as adequate and thus make the negotiation of future data-sharing accords easier in the law enforcement arena.
In 2009, the European Parliament called for a U.S.-EU framework agreement to help better ensure the protection of personal data exchanged between the two sides in the fight against terrorism and crime. In late May 2010, the European Commission proposed a draft mandate for negotiating such an accord that could apply to all U.S.-EU data-sharing agreements in the law enforcement context.

The Commission hopes that an overarching deal on data protection will bridge what it views as U.S.-EU differences in the application of privacy rights and guarantee that all data transferred is subject to high standards of protection on both sides of the Atlantic. The Commission noted, however, that any such framework agreement would not provide the legal basis for the actual transfer of personal data between the EU and the United States, and that specific agreements on SWIFT or PNR, for example, would still be required.56 EU member states approved the Commission’s mandate in early December 2010.

In March 2011, the United States and the EU officially launched negotiations on a framework Data Privacy and Protection Agreement (DPPA) to protect personal information exchanged in a law enforcement context. U.S. officials asserted that this U.S.-EU accord should be based broadly on the principle of mutual recognition of each other’s data protection systems, thus making it clear that while the U.S. and EU regimes may differ, they both protect citizens’ rights to privacy and other civil liberties effectively.

As such, U.S. authorities hoped that the negotiations would ultimately result in an EU finding of “adequacy” for U.S. data protection standards. Many analysts believe that the DPPA will likely build on the common personal data protection principles adopted by the United States and the EU in October 2009.57
In June 2012, U.S. and EU officials stated that considerable progress had been made in negotiating a DPPA, including on provisions related to data security, the transparency of data processing, maintaining the quality and integrity of information, and oversight. However, some controversial issues remained, including purpose limitation, retention times, and redress.58 For years, many EU officials and MEPs have insisted that European citizens need the right of judicial redress in the United States, and have pushed for the U.S. Privacy Act of 1974 to be amended to extend judicial redress to EU citizens (currently, the U.S. Privacy Act limits judicial redress to U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents). Successive U.S. administrations have long countered that Congress would probably not be inclined to support amending the Privacy Act, but that EU citizens could seek redress concerning U.S. government handling of personal information through agency administrative redress or judicial redress through other U.S. laws, such as the U.S. Freedom of Information Act. Amid the stumbling block of judicial redress, observers suggested that the DPPA negotiations were largely stalled.

The revelations and allegations since June 2013 of U.S. surveillance activities, however, appear to have injected renewed momentum into the DPPA discussions. In the European Parliament’s previously noted July 2013 resolution on the NSA programs, MEPs called for the European Commission and U.S. authorities to resume the negotiations on a DPPA “without delay.” The Parliament’s aforementioned “Moraes report” in March 2014 asserted that concluding the DPPA was a precondition for the restoration of transatlantic trust, and urged the United States to revise its legislation to provide EU citizens with the right to judicial redress for any potential violations of their privacy rights.

In June 2014, U.S. Attorney General Holder announced that, “in support of our desire to bring the DPPA negotiations to conclusion, the Obama Administration is committed to seeking legislation that would ensure that, with regard to personal information transferred within the scope of our proposed DPPA … EU citizens would have the same right to seek judicial redress for intentional or willful disclosures of protected information, and for refusal to grant access or to rectify any errors in that information, as would a U.S. citizen under the Privacy Act.”59 Observers suggest that this decision represents an effort by the Obama Administration to spur final agreement on the DPPA and restore EU trust and confidence in U.S. data privacy and protection commitments. Analysts point out that the Administration must now work with Congress to formulate an official legislative proposal, and that it remains unclear whether it could achieve sufficient congressional backing to become U.S. law. EU member states and the European Parliament must ultimately approve any eventual U.S.-EU DPPA for it to take effect.60

Strengthening Border Controls and Transport Security

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, roughly 30,000 passengers arrive daily from Europe at U.S. ports of entry, as do more than 3,000 commercial containers.61 Over the last decade, the United States and the EU have emphasized cooperation in the areas of border control and aviation and maritime security, and have concluded several agreements on such issues. The two sides have sought to enhance international information exchanges on lost and stolen passports and to promote the use of interoperable biometric identifiers to improve travel document security. In January 2010, the United States and the EU issued a joint declaration in which they pledged to intensify U.S.-EU efforts to strengthen aviation security measures worldwide, and in October 2010, U.S.-EU collaboration played a key role in forging an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) declaration on aviation security, agreed to by 190 countries. The United States and the EU have also worked together to improve cargo security and to strengthen global supply chain security. In a joint statement in June 2011, the United States and the EU reaffirmed their determination to bolster supply chain security and foster greater global cooperation on this issue. At the same time, U.S. and EU officials continue to grapple with finding the appropriate balance between improving border security and facilitating legitimate transatlantic travel and commerce.

Aviation and Air Cargo Security

Since the 2001 terrorist attacks in which airplanes were used as weapons, both the United States and the EU have implemented a range of measures aimed at improving aviation security.62 Several incidents over the last few years have brought aviation and air cargo security to the forefront of U.S.-EU discussions again, especially the December 2009 attempt by a Nigerian passenger to blow up an airliner en route from Amsterdam to Detroit with a device concealed in his underwear; and the thwarted October 2010 “Yemen bomb plot,” in which two Chicago-bound printer cartridge packages containing explosives were shipped from Yemen on various cargo and passenger flights (one package was transferred in Germany before being intercepted in the UK). The decision by U.S. authorities in early July 2014 to institute tighter rules for carrying electronic devices (such as mobile phones) on board some international U.S.-bound flights, reportedly because of fears that Al Qaeda-linked groups could be seeking to use such devices to disguise explosives, highlights the continuing terrorist threat to aviation.

Many U.S. and EU rules and regulations implemented since 2001 have coincided closely, and the two sides have sought to work together to bridge gaps in their respective policies given the significant volume of transatlantic flights (more than 2,500 every week). For example, in 2003, some EU countries objected to new U.S. rules requiring armed air marshals on certain flights to and from the United States; U.S. officials pledged to consider alternative measures for European countries opposed to armed air marshals. Moreover, in 2008, the United States and the EU reached an agreement on coordinating air cargo security measures.63 Among other provisions, the two sides pledged to institute commensurate systems to ensure the security of all cargo on passenger flights between their respective territories, in part to comply with a provision in the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-53) that mandates 100% screening of cargo transported on U.S. domestic and U.S.-bound international passenger flights equivalent to the level of security used for checked baggage.64

In June 2012, the United States and the EU announced that they had reached an agreement on an air cargo security partnership, in which each side will recognize the other’s air cargo security regime, thereby eliminating duplication of security controls and the need to implement different regimes depending on the destination of air cargo. U.S. and EU officials assert that this mutual recognition of air cargo security regimes will enhance cargo security and result in huge savings for U.S. and European cargo operators in terms of both time and money, improving the speed of transatlantic shipments and reducing costs. As part of the agreement, both sides also pledged to exchange information on the evolution and the implementation of their security regimes. According to press reports, EU officials assert that this mutual recognition agreement will enable European operators to meet the U.S. requirement for 100% screening of cargo on passenger planes bound for the United States from abroad contained in the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007, noted above.65

Despite a shared commitment to promote U.S.-EU cooperation in the areas of aviation and air cargo security, some differences in perspective remain. In the aftermath of the failed 2009 attack, the United States accelerated installation of body scanners at U.S. airports and encouraged the EU to follow suit. Although some EU countries and leaders supported installing body scanners at European airports, other EU member states were hesitant due to concerns that the scanners could compromise privacy rights and pose health dangers. Some Members of the European Parliament expressed similar worries. However, in July 2011, the European Parliament backed the use of body scanners at EU airports provided that safeguards were instituted to protect passenger privacy and ensure passenger health; the safeguards recommended by the EP included the requirement that scans only produce stick figure images and not body images, and a ban on x-ray scans (an alternative millimeter wave scan was permitted instead). The EP also asserted that the use of the scanners should be voluntary, with passengers having the right to opt for a manual search. In November 2011, the European Commission adopted the EP’s conditions in setting common standards for the use of body scanners at EU airports, but member states are not required to deploy such scanners and some are unlikely to do so.66

Some EU officials and European Parliamentarians have also been uneasy about the use of body scanners at U.S. airports, given the large volume of European visitors to the United States. However, at least some European privacy and health worries were likely assuaged in January 2013, when the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced that it would remove all full-body scanners that produce detailed, revealing images by June 2013. Body scanners will remain at U.S. airports, but only those that produce more generic body images will be employed and most (but not all) of these scanners (either currently in use or contracted for by the TSA) use millimeter wave technology rather than low-dose x-rays. Many Members of Congress, like their counterparts in the European Parliament, had long expressed concerns that the more revealing body scanners violated passengers’ privacy rights.67

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have been worried about planned changes to EU regulations governing liquids and gels in carry-on baggage on board planes. Following the August 2006 disruption of a plot to use liquid explosives to blow up transatlantic flights, the United States and the EU began prohibiting passengers from carrying most liquids and gels on board planes. The United States has worked with the EU and other countries to harmonize the small amounts of travel-sized liquids and gels that are permitted in carry-on baggage in an effort to minimize inconvenience to international travelers. In 2010, however, the EU announced plans to eliminate restrictions on liquids in cabin baggage by April 2013, following the introduction of liquid screening equipment in all EU airports. U.S. policy makers voiced concerns about the effectiveness of current liquid- screening technology and argued that it was premature to ease the liquid and gel restrictions. Some EU governments and segments of the airline industry expressed similar worries about airline security and noted that the planned changes could result in potential flight delays.

In light of these concerns, the EU postponed its original 2013 deadline for introducing liquid screening equipment and eliminating all restrictions on liquids and gels in carry-on baggage. The EU maintained that it was still committed to doing so in the longer term. In January 2014, as a first phase, the EU lifted the prohibitions on “duty-free” liquids and gels in cabin baggage, and hopes to end all restrictions on liquids and gels aboard planes by January 2016.68

Maritime Cargo Screening

In April 2004, the United States and the European Union signed a customs cooperation accord; among other measures, it calls for extending the U.S. Container Security Initiative (CSI) throughout the EU. CSI stations U.S. customs officers in foreign ports to help pre-screen U.S.- bound maritime cargo containers to ensure that they do not contain dangerous substances such as explosives or other weapons of mass destruction. Ten EU member states currently have ports that participate in CSI.

In May 2012, the United States and the EU agreed to recognize each other’s trusted shipper programs in an effort to improve supply chain security and boost trade opportunities. This mutual recognition accord is intended to speed up customs procedures for some 15,000 U.S. and European companies designated as “trusted traders” by either the U.S. Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) program or the EU’s Authorized Economic Operators (AEO) regime. U.S. and EU officials hope this agreement will not only lower costs and simplify procedures for trusted traders but also allow customs authorities to concentrate limited resources on risky consignments and better facilitate legitimate transatlantic trade.

Recently, U.S.-EU tensions have receded over a provision in the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-53) that set a five-year goal of scanning at foreign ports of loading all containers bound for the United States for nuclear devices. EU officials viewed 100% container scanning as unrealistic, and argued that it could disrupt trade and place a heavy financial burden on EU ports and businesses. U.S. policy makers in both the Bush and Obama Administrations shared these concerns about the cost and effectiveness of 100% scanning, suggesting that it could result in lower profits and higher transportation costs for U.S. importers; they also pointed out that the United States and Europe already had programs in place to identify high risk cargo shipments and target them for further inspection. In May 2012, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security notified Congress that it was extending the July 2012 100% scanning deadline by two years; in June 2014, DHS announced an additional two-year extension.

Proponents of 100% scanning continue to urge its full implementation, arguing that the manifest data currently used by U.S. and European authorities to determine which containers need closer scrutiny is not an adequate basis for determining risk.69

Visa Waiver Program (VWP)70

For many years, the United States and the EU were at odds over the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP) and the EU’s desire to have it applied equally to all EU members. The VWP allows for short-term visa-free travel for business or pleasure to the United States from 38 countries, most of which are in Europe. New EU members were eager to join the VWP, but most were excluded for years due to problems meeting the program’s statutory requirements. Although some Members of Congress supported extending the VWP to new EU members (especially those in central and eastern Europe) given their roles as U.S. allies in NATO and in the fight against terrorism, others were skeptical of the VWP post-9/11 because of security concerns. Many noted that terrorists with European citizenship—including French citizen Zacarias Moussaoui, the “20th” September 11 hijacker, and British-born Richard Reid, the airplane “shoe bomber”—travelled to the United States under the VWP.

In July 2007, Congress passed the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007 (P.L. 110-53), which included changes to the VWP aimed at both strengthening the program’s security components and allowing more EU members (and other interested countries) to qualify. Among other measures, P.L. 110-53 called on VWP participating countries to meet certain security and passport standards and to sign on to a number of information-sharing agreements; it also required visitors entering the United States under the VWP to submit biographical information to U.S. authorities through the web-based Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) at least two days before traveling.71 At the same time, P.L. 110-53 eased some admission requirements to make it easier for several new EU member states (and other interested countries) to join the VWP. As a result, 23 of the EU’s 28 member states now belong to the VWP. The EU, however, continues to encourage the United States to admit the remaining five EU members (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland, and Romania) to the VWP as soon as possible.

The VWP is one reason U.S. officials are increasingly alarmed by reports of European citizens or residents fighting in Syria and Iraq. Not only can such European fighters easily return to their home countries, many European passport-holders can also enter the United States without first acquiring a visa. Amid such concerns, some Members of Congress have introduced new legislation on the VWP. While some measures largely aim to strengthen the VWP’s security components further (see H.R. 5470, introduced September 15, 2014 by Representative Candice Miller), other proposals would temporarily suspend the VWP or the participation of certain countries (see H.R. 5434, introduced September 10, 2014 by Representative Doug Collins; and H.R. 5594, introduced September 18, 2014, by Representative Tulsi Gabbard).

The Obama Administration continues to support the VWP as a key facilitator of transatlantic commerce and tourism, and rejects calls from some critics to suspend it because of the potential foreign fighter threat. In early November 2014, however, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced that VWP travelers would be required to submit additional biographic information through ESTA. U.S. officials contend that the new ESTA requirements will enable more accurate and comprehensive screening of VWP visitors, while preserving legitimate trade and travel.72

Detainee Issues and Civil Liberties

U.S. and European officials alike maintain that the imperative to provide freedom and security at home should not come at the cost of sacrificing core principles with respect to civil liberties and upholding common standards on human rights. Nevertheless, the status and treatment of suspected terrorist detainees has often been a key point of U.S.-European tension. Especially during the former George W. Bush Administration, a number of U.S. policies were subject to widespread criticism in Europe; these included the U.S.-run detention facility at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba; U.S. plans to try enemy combatants before military commissions; and the use of “enhanced interrogation techniques.” The U.S. practice of “extraordinary rendition” (or extrajudicial transfer of individuals from one country to another, often for the purpose of interrogation) and the possible presence of CIA detention facilities in Europe also gripped European media attention and prompted numerous investigations by the European Parliament, national legislatures, and judicial bodies, among others. Some individuals held at Guantánamo and/or allegedly subject to U.S. rendition have been European citizens or residents.

Many European leaders and analysts viewed these U.S. terrorist detainee and interrogation policies as being in breach of international and European law, and as degrading shared values regarding human rights and the treatment of prisoners. Moreover, they feared that such U.S. policies weakened U.S. and European efforts to win the battle for Muslim “hearts and minds,” considered by many to be a crucial element in countering terrorism. The Bush Administration, however, defended its detainee and rendition polices as important tools in the fight against terrorism, and vehemently denied allegations that such policies violated U.S. human rights commitments. Bush Administration officials acknowledged European concerns about Guantánamo and sought agreements with foreign governments to accept some Guantánamo detainees, but maintained that certain prisoners were too dangerous to be released.

U.S.-EU frictions over terrorist detainee policies have subsided to some degree since the start of the Obama Administration. EU and other European officials welcomed President Obama’s announcement in January 2009 that the United States intended to close the detention facility at Guantánamo within a year. They were also pleased with President Obama’s executive order banning torture and his initiative to review Bush Administration legal opinions regarding detention and interrogation methods. In March 2009, the U.S. State Department appointed a special envoy to work on closing the detention facility, tasked in particular with persuading countries in Europe and elsewhere to accept detainees cleared for release but who could not be repatriated to their country of origin for fear of torture or execution. Some EU members accepted small numbers of released detainees, but others declined.

At the same time, the Obama Administration has faced significant challenges in its efforts to close Guantánamo. Some observers contend that U.S. officials have been frustrated by the reluctance of other countries, including some in Europe, to take in more detainees. Congressional opposition to elements of the Administration’s plan for closing Guantánamo, and certain restrictions imposed by Congress (including on the Administration’s ability to transfer detainees to other countries amid concerns that some released detainees were engaging in terrorist activity), have also presented obstacles. Consequently, the Obama Administration has not fulfilled its promise to shut down Guantánamo. In March 2011, President Obama signed an executive order that in effect created a formal system of indefinite detention for those detainees at Guantánamo not charged or convicted but deemed too dangerous to free. The Administration also announced in March 2011 an end to its two-year freeze on new military commission trials for Guantánamo detainees.73

Some European policy makers continue to worry that as long as Guantánamo remains open, it helps serve as a recruiting tool for Al Qaeda, its affiliates, and other Islamist extremist groups. European officials have also voiced concern about the physical well-being of those detainees at Guantánamo who began hunger strikes in early 2013 to protest their ongoing incarceration. In May 2013, the European Parliament adopted a resolution that expressed concern for those on hunger strike, and again called upon the United States to close the detention facility.74

The Obama Administration asserts that it remains committed to closing Guantánamo. In late May 2013, President Obama renewed his pledge to work toward this goal, and announced that U.S. authorities would restart the process of sending home or resettling in third countries those detainees already cleared for transfer. In August 2013, the Administration released two Algerian detainees (the first such releases in nearly a year), after certifying to Congress that they no longer posed a threat to U.S. national security. Media sources indicate that nine additional detainees were transferred to other countries during the remainder of 2013, including three to Slovakia.

In December 2013, Congress passed a measure in the FY2014 defense authorization bill (P.L. 113-66) easing restrictions on the Administration’s ability to transfer low-risk detainees to other countries. In signing the bill into law, President Obama asserted that it was a “welcome step” toward ultimately closing the detention facility, but urged Congress to lift other restrictions that still prevent the transfer of Guantánamo detainees to prisons on U.S. soil for trial in U.S. courts. Some commentators suggest, however, that Congress may not be inclined to take further action aimed at shuttering Guantánamo amid the controversy that erupted in late May 2014 following the Administration’s transfer of five Taliban prisoners from Guantánamo to Qatar (without prior congressional notification) in exchange for the release of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl from captivity in Afghanistan. Of the almost 800 individuals detained at Guantánamo since early 2002, press reports indicate that 143 remained as of the end of November 2014.75

European concerns also linger about the past role of European governments in U.S. terrorist detainee policies and practices. In September 2012, the European Parliament passed a non- binding resolution (by 568 votes to 34, with 77 abstentions) calling upon EU member states to investigate whether CIA detention facilities had existed on their territories.76 The resolution urged Lithuania, Poland, and Romania in particular to open or resume independent investigations, and called on several other member states to fully disclose all relevant information related to suspected CIA flights on their territory. Meanwhile, some U.S. and European officials worry that allegations of U.S. wrongdoing and rendition-related criminal proceedings against CIA officers in some EU states (stemming from the Bush era) continue to cast a long shadow and could put vital U.S.-European intelligence cooperation against terrorism at risk.77

U.S. Perspectives and Issues for Congress

Successive U.S. administrations and many Members of Congress have supported efforts to enhance U.S.-EU cooperation against terrorism since the 2001 attacks on the United States. Although some skeptics initially worried that such U.S.-EU collaboration could weaken strong U.S. bilateral law enforcement relationships with EU member states, the George W. Bush Administration essentially determined that the political benefits of engaging the EU as an entity on police and judicial matters outweighed the potential risks given Europe’s role as a key U.S. law enforcement partner. They also hoped that improved U.S.-EU cooperation on border controls and transport security would help authorities on both sides keep better track of suspected terrorists and prevent them from entering the United States or finding sanctuary in Europe.

At the same time, observers note that U.S.-EU counterterrorism cooperation is complicated by different EU and member state competencies, and U.S. policy preferences. An increasing number of policy areas relevant to counterterrorism—including data protection, customs, and visas—fall under the competence of the Union (i.e., EU members adopt a common policy, agree to abide by its terms, and negotiate collectively with other countries). However, at times, the United States continues to prefer to negotiate on some issues—such as the Visa Waiver Program—bilaterally, and observers assert that this disconnect can lead to frictions in the U.S.-EU relationship.

Nevertheless, both the United States and the EU appear committed to fostering closer cooperation in the areas of counterterrorism, law enforcement, border controls, and transport security. As noted previously, the Obama Administration has largely continued the Bush Administration’s policy of engagement with the EU in these areas. U.S.-EU cooperation against terrorism is increasingly viewed as key to combating potential threats posed by European and American citizens fighting with Islamist groups in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa. U.S. policy makers and analysts contend that the foreign fighter phenomenon also underscores the importance of existing U.S.-EU information-sharing agreements that help facilitate the sharing of traveler information and the tracking of potential terrorists. Some U.S. officials have reportedly been encouraging the EU to move forward with approving and implementing its own system for sharing airline passenger data in order to improve European capabilities to keep tabs on suspected foreign fighters.78

Aviation and cargo security, U.S border control measures, and visa policy may continue to be salient issues for Congress that could affect how future U.S.-EU cooperation evolves. In September 2014, several congressional hearings were held on countering terrorism and the potential threats posed by Western foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq.79 As noted previously, various pieces of legislation have been introduced recently on the VWP; these range from measures to enhance VWP security controls to those that seek to limit or suspend the program.

Congressional decisions related to intelligence-gathering reforms and data privacy and protection issues may also have significant implications for U.S.-EU counterterrorism cooperation in the years ahead. Possible changes to the laws that govern U.S. surveillance activity, and congressional reactions to the Obama Administration’s proposal to provide EU citizens judicial redress in the context of a potential U.S.-EU Data Privacy and Protection Agreement, will be closely watched in Europe. In addition, given the European Parliament’s growing influence in many of the areas related to counterterrorism and its new role since 2009 in approving international agreements—such as the U.S.-EU SWIFT and PNR accords—Members of Congress may increasingly be able to help shape Parliament’s views and responses.

Many European Parliamentarians appeared to appreciate efforts by some Members of Congress to engage in substantive dialogue on the alleged U.S. surveillance operations and their implications for EU data privacy rights. In November 2013, for example, Representative Jim Sensenbrenner testified before the European Parliament on possible changes to U.S. legislation governing surveillance practices, and urged Parliament “to work pragmatically with the United States to continue balanced efforts to protect our nations.”80 Other Members, including Senator Chris Murphy, Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs, have expressed similar sentiments acknowledging European worries about the reported U.S. intelligence collection programs, while asserting the ongoing need for close U.S.-European counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation.81 At the end of 2013, both Senator Murphy and Representative Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, led congressional delegations to Europe to discuss the alleged U.S. intelligence activities with European Parliamentarians and other European officials, and to reaffirm the importance of close U.S.-European political, security, and economic relations.

Some Members of Congress have ongoing contacts with their counterparts in the European Parliament, and the existing Transatlantic Legislators’ Dialogue (TLD) brings members of the Parliament and the U.S. House of Representatives together twice a year to discuss a wide range of topical foreign policy and economic issues. In recent years, several Members of Congress and many European Parliamentarians have expressed interest in strengthening ties and cooperation between the two bodies further. Such exchanges could provide useful opportunities for enhancing transatlantic dialogue on the wide range of counterterrorism issues facing both the United States and the EU.82

About the author:
Kristin Archick
Specialist in European Affairs

Source:
This article was published by the Congressional Research Service, which may be accessed here.

Notes:
1. The 28 members of the EU are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. For more information on the EU, see CRS Report RS21372, The European Union: Questions and Answers, by Kristin Archick.
2. The EU adopted a revised and updated strategy for combating radicalization and terrorist recruitment in June 2014. For background on EU efforts to prevent radicalization and counter terrorist recruitment, see CRS Report RL33166, Muslims in Europe: Promoting Integration and Countering Extremism, coordinated by Kristin Archick.
3. Maia de la Baume, “Radicalism Prompts Warnings in France,” New York Times, October 8, 2012; “Woolwich Suspect Had Al Qaeda, Jihad Texts, Court Hears,” Reuters, December 5, 2013.
4. Council of the European Union Press Release, Justice and Home Affairs, 3244th Council Meeting, June 6-7, 2013; also see, Council of the European Union Press Release, Justice and Home Affairs Council Background Note, October 8, 2014.
5. European Council Conclusions, August 30, 2014.
6. Although the European Commission (the EU’s executive) first floated establishing an EU PNR system in November 2007, progress has been slow because of different member state sensitivities about privacy rights and counterterrorism practices. In February 2011, the Commission presented a new proposal for an EU-wide PNR system. In April 2012, EU member states approved creating an EU PNR system that would oblige airlines to transfer the PNR data of passengers on international flights into and out of EU territory to the member state of arrival or departure; member states would be allowed to collect PNR data from intra-European flights but not required to do so (mandating the inclusion of PNR data from intra-European flights was controversial for some EU members because of data privacy concerns). The European Parliament, however, must still approve establishing this EU PNR system, but some Parliamentarians have opposed certain elements of the current proposal; it has been blocked by a key parliamentary committee since April 2013 because of worries that it does not sufficiently protect citizens’ data privacy rights. European Commission Press Release, “EU Proposal for Passenger Data to Fight Serious Crime and Terrorism,” February 2, 2011; “PNR-EU27 Outline European System,” Agence Europe, April 27, 2012; “MEPs Reject EU Passenger Data Storage Scheme,” EurActiv.com, April 24, 2013; Nikolaj Nielsen, “Data Retention Issue Stymies EU Air Passenger Bill,” EUObserver.com, November 11, 2014.
7. Council of the European Union Press Release, Justice and Home Affairs, 3336th Council Meeting, October 9-10, 2014; Nikolaj Nielsen, “Europe at Risk of Huge Number of Returning Jihadist Fighters,” EUObserver.com, October 10, 2014; “JHA: Member States Agree on Strengthening External Border Controls,” Agence Europe, October 10, 2014.
8. Nikolaj Nielsen, “Internet Giants Discuss Jihad with EU Ministers,” EUObserver.com, October 9, 2014.
9. According to press reports, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom agreed to the “action plan.” Details of the “action plan” remain confidential for security reasons. Sweden reportedly declined to subscribe to the “action plan,” contending that it does not go far enough to address the foreign fighter threat. Nikolaj Nielsen, “EU States Adopt New Counter-terrorism Plan,” EUObserver.com, July 9, 2014; Nikolaj Nielsen, “Doubts Emerge on Belgium’s Counter-terror Group,” EUObserver.com, July 10, 2014.
10. Council of the European Union Press Release, Justice and Home Affairs Council Background Note, October 8, 2014.
11. The Lisbon Treaty also adds an “emergency brake” that allows any member state to halt certain JHA measures it views as threatening its national legal system, and ultimately, to opt out. Despite these safeguards, the UK and Ireland essentially negotiated the right to choose those JHA policies they want to take part in and to opt out of all others; Denmark extended its existing opt-out in some JHA areas to all JHA issues. The Lisbon Treaty technically renames JHA as the “Area of Freedom, Security, and Justice,” although JHA remains the more commonly-used term. For more information on the Lisbon Treaty, see CRS Report RS21618, The European Union’s Reform Process: The Lisbon Treaty, by Kristin Archick and Derek E. Mix.
12. For more information on U.S.-EU collaboration in the Global Counterterrorism Forum, see White House Press Release, “Fact Sheet: U.S.-EU Counterterrorism Cooperation,” March 26, 2014.
13. U.S. Department of Justice, Remarks by Attorney General Holder Urging International Effort to Confront Threat of Syrian Foreign Fighters, July 8, 2014.
14. White House Press Release, “Fact Sheet: Comprehensive U.S. Government Approach to Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Syria and the Broader Region,” September 24, 2014.
15. On the U.S. side, the State Department has the lead in managing the interagency policymaking process toward enhancing U.S.-EU police, judicial, and border control cooperation, while the Justice and Homeland Security Departments provide the bulk of the legal and technical expertise. The Treasury Department has the lead on efforts to suppress terrorist financing.
16. In September 2006, former U.S. President George W. Bush transmitted the U.S.-EU treaties on extradition and MLA to the Senate for its advice and consent, along with separate bilateral instruments signed by the United States and individual EU member states that reconciled the terms of existing bilateral extradition and MLA treaties with the new EU-wide treaties. The Senate gave its advice and consent in September 2008. All EU member states also had to transpose the terms of the U.S.-EU extradition and MLA accords into their national laws. Following the completion of this process in all EU member countries, the United States and the EU exchanged the instruments of ratification for both agreements in October 2009, thus allowing them to enter into force in February 2010.
17. U.S. Department of Justice Press Release, “U.S./EU Agreements on Mutual Legal Assistance and Extradition Enter into Force,” February 1, 2010.
18. U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Terrorist Finance Tracking Program: Questions and Answers,” available at http://www.ustreas.gov.
19. See Council Regulation (EC) No. 881/2002, originally issued in May 2002. Since then, there have been 223 amendments; the most recent one was issued on November 28, 2014.
20. The legal basis in EU law for the EU’s common terrorist list is Council Common Position 2001/931/CFSP, adopted December 27, 2001; it sets out the criteria for designating persons or groups as “terrorist” and identifies the actions that constitute terrorist acts.
21. For the financial asset-freezing measures and other sanctions that EU member states must apply to “external” individuals or groups designated as terrorist, see Council Regulation (EC) No. 2580/2001, adopted December 27, 2001.
22. Paul Ames, “EU Adopts Anti-terrorist Measures,” Associated Press, December 28, 2001.
23. “U.S. Takes Action with EU on Expanded Terror List,” Agence France Presse, May 3, 2002.
24. The EU common terrorist list currently includes two charities that are believed to be related to Hamas: the U.S.- based Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development; and Al-Aqsa, e.V. (or the Al-Aqsa Foundation), located throughout Europe.
25. Of 11 charities currently designated by the United States as front organizations for Hamas, five are based primarily in Europe (including Al-Aqsa, e.V.). For more information, see U.S. Treasury Department, http://www.treasury.gov/ resource-center/terrorist-illicit-finance/Pages/protecting-fto.aspx.
26. Steven Weisman, “Allies Resisting as U.S. Pushes Terror Label for Hezbollah,” New York Times, February 17, 2005; James Phillips, “Hezbollah’s Terrorist Threat to the European Union,” The Heritage Foundation, August 28, 2007; Nicolas Kulish, “Despite U.S. Fear, Hezbollah Moves Openly in Europe,” New York Times, August 16, 2012.
27. European Union Press Release, “Joint Council and Commission Declaration on the Specific Restrictive Measures to Combat Terrorism,” July 25, 2013.
28. Benjamin Weinthal, “In Europe, A Growing Case for Banning Hezbollah,” The Atlantic, April 17, 2013; Michael Birnbaum and Ruth Eglash, “EU Designates Hezbollah’s Military Wing as a Terrorist Organization,” Washington Post, July 22, 2013; Matthew Levitt, “Europe’s Moment of Decision on Hezbollah,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, July 22, 2013.
29. Statement by (then) Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism John Brennan on Bulgaria’s Announcement of Hezbollah’s Role in the 2012 Burgas Terrorist Attack, The White House, February 5, 2013.
30. Joshua Chaffin and Abigail Fielding-Smith, “EU Declares Hizbollah Military Wing a Terrorist Organization,” Financial Times, July 22, 2013; Julian Pecquent, “Lawmakers Welcome EU Adding Hezbollah to its Terror List,” TheHill.com, July 22, 2013.
31. Michael Birnbaum, “EU Fury on Allegations of U.S. Spying,” Washington Post, June 30, 2013; Alison Smale, “Indignation Over U.S Spying Spreads in Europe,” New York Times, October 24, 2013. For more information on the NSA surveillance programs, see CRS Report R43134, NSA Surveillance Leaks: Background and Issues for Congress, by Catherine A. Theohary and Edward C. Liu; and CRS Report R43459, Overview of Constitutional Challenges to NSA Collection Activities and Recent Developments, by Edward C. Liu, Andrew Nolan, and Richard M. Thompson II.
32. See European Parliament resolution P7_TA(2013)0322, adopted July 4, 2013 (with 483 votes in favor, 98 opposed, and 65 abstentions); also see “Parliament To Launch Enquiry Into U.S. Eavesdropping,” EurActiv.com, July 3, 2013.
33. See European Parliament resolution P7_TA(2014)0230, adopted March 12, 2014 (with 544 votes in favor, 70 opposed, and 60 abstentions). The full text of the “Moraes report” is contained in this resolution.
34. European Parliament Press Release, “MEPs Tighten Up Rules To Protect Personal Data in the Digital Era,” March 12, 2014.
35. On the EU side, this ad hoc working group has been co-chaired by the European Commission and the Presidency of the Council of the European Union (which rotates among the member states every six months), with participation from other EU foreign policy, counterterrorism, and data protection officials; U.S. participants have included officials from the U.S. Department of Justice, the State Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
36. European Commission Press Release, “European Commission Calls on the U.S. to Restore Trust in EU-U.S. Data Flows,” November 27, 2013.
37. “Frattini Claims Major Advance in Data Privacy Dispute,” European Report, June 29, 2007; David S. Cohen, U.S. Treasury Department Assistant Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Remarks to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 7, 2010.
38. “MEPs Hail Historic Rejection of SWIFT Deal,” Agence Europe, February 13, 2010; “Countering Terrorist Threats—In the Air and on the Ground,” EU Insight, April 2010; “SWIFT: Commission To Negotiate Under Pressure from EP,” Europolitics, April 23, 2010.
39. Toby Vogel, “SWIFT Deal on Data Sharing with U.S. Reopened,” European Voice, June 24, 2010; “SWIFT: Rapporteur Announces Last-Minute Agreement,” Europolitics, June 25, 2010.
40. In July 2011, the European Commission issued a preliminary study with several options for establishing what it termed a European Terrorist Finance Tracking System (TFTS). After assessing these various options, in November 2013, the Commission concluded that establishing an EU TFTS would raise serious challenges in terms of data storage and protection, pose technical difficulties, and entail significant financial costs. As such, the Commission essentially advised against pursuing an EU TFTS, but noted that the final decision on whether to create a system rested with the EU member states and the European Parliament. Most observers expect that the EU will not move forward with creating a TFTS at this time. European Commission Press Release, “EU-US Agreements: Commission Reports on TFTP and PNR,” November 27, 2013.
41. European Parliament Press Release, “Parliament Gives Green Light for SWIFT II,” July 8, 2010; “Europe Seeks More Openness from U.S. Anti-terror Program,” International Herald Tribune, March 18, 2011; European Commission Press Release, “Terrorist Finance Tracking: Citizen’s Safeguards Are in Place,” December 14, 2012.
42. European Parliament resolution P7_TA(2013)0449, adopted October 23, 2013, with 280 votes in favor, 245 opposed, and 30 abstentions.
43. European Commission Press Release, “EU-US Agreements: Commission Reports on TFTP and PNR,” November 27, 2013.
44. Paul Lewis and Spencer Hsu, “Travelers Face Greater Use of Personal Data,” Washington Post, July 27, 2007.
45. James Kanter, “Europe Acts on Privacy Front,” International Herald Tribune, April 7, 2010; “EP Suspends Vote on
PNR,” Agence Europe, May 6, 2010.
46. Communication from the Commission on the Global Approach to Transfers of Passenger Name Record (PNR) Data
to Third Countries, COM/2010/0492, September 21, 2010.
47. EP Resolution P7_TA-PROV(2010)0397, November 11, 2010.
48. “Will Napolitano Change 2007 PNR Accord?,” Europolitics Transport, October 12, 2010; Edward Cody, “Armed with New Treaty, Europe Amplifies Objections to U.S. Data-sharing Demands,” Washington Post, October 26, 2010; “MEPs Assent to Talks on Airline Passenger Information-sharing,” Agence Europe, November 13, 2010.
49. As noted previously in this report, establishing an EU-wide PNR system has been discussed for years. The most recent legislative proposal put forward by the European Commission has been stalled in the European Parliament since April 2013, largely because of data privacy issues.
50. Alan Travis, “U.S. To Store Passenger Data for 15 Years,” The Guardian, May 25, 2011; Statement by U.S. Ambassador to the EU, William Kennard, on the U.S.-EU PNR Agreement, May 26, 2011.
51. House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, “How DHS Addresses the Mission of Providing Security, Facilitating Commerce and Protecting Privacy for Passengers Engaged in International Travel,” 112th Congress, October 5, 2011.
52. “EU-US PNR Agreement,” Agence Europe, November 11, 2011; Valentina Pop, “Unhappy MEPs to Approve Passenger Data Deal,” EUobserver.com, November 11, 2011.
53. “In’t Veld Says EU-US PNR Agreement Should Be Rejected,” Agence Europe, February 2, 2012; “PNR Agreement Will Not Be Renegotiated, Warns Malmstrom,” Europolitics Transport, February 20, 2012; “MEPs Divided Over EU- US PNR; S&D Very Cautious,” Agence Europe, February 29, 2012.
54. Statement by U.S. Ambassador to the EU, William Kennard, on the European Parliament’s Endorsement of the U.S.- EU PNR Agreement, April 19, 2012; “MEPs Bring an End to PNR Agreements Saga,” Agence Europe, April 20, 2012.
55. European Commission Press Release, “EU-US Agreements: Commission Reports on TFTP and PNR,” November 27, 2013.
56. European Commission Press Release, “European Commission Seeks High Privacy Standards in EU-US Data Protection Agreement,” May 26, 2010.
57. For more information, see U.S. Department of State Press Release, “U.S., EU Reach Agreement on Common Personal Data Protection Principles,” October 28, 2009.
58. U.S. Department of Justice Press Release, “Joint Statement on the Negotiation of a EU-U.S. Data Privacy and Protection Agreement by Attorney General Eric Holder and European Commission Vice-President Viviane Reding,” June 21, 2012.
59. U.S. Department of Justice Press Release, “Attorney General Holder Pledges Support for Legislation to Provide EU Citizens with Judicial Redress in Cases of Wrongful Disclosure of Their Personal Data Transferred to the U.S. for Law Enforcement Purposes,” June 25, 2014.
60. Nikolaj Nielsen, “U.S. to Extend Privacy Rights to EU Citizens,” EUObserver.com, June 25, 2014.
61. Testimony of Mark Koumans, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Europe and Eurasia Subcommittee, “Overview of Security Issues in Europe,” 112th Congress, May 5, 2011.
62. The EU first adopted common rules on aviation security in 2002, detailing measures regarding access to sensitive airport areas, aircraft security, passenger screening and baggage handling, among others. These measures were revised and updated in 2008 and became fully applicable in April 2010.
63. Ned Levi, “TSA To Finally Screen Air Cargo on Passenger Flights,” Consumer Traveler, November 4, 2008. The text of the 2008 U.S.-EU agreement on air cargo security is available at http://www.tsa.gov/assets/pdf/ eu_us_enhancing_air_cargo_security.pdf.
64. In the United States, the screening of all cargo on passenger flights, as called for in P.L. 110-53, has been implemented in stages. The U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has required the screening of all cargo transported on U.S. domestic passenger flights since August 2010, and the screening of all cargo on international passenger flights inbound to the United States since December 2012. For more information, see CRS Report R41515, Screening and Securing Air Cargo: Background and Issues for Congress, by Bart Elias.
65. European Commission Press Release, “EU-US Security Agreement Allows Cheaper and Faster Air Cargo Operations,” June 1, 2012; U.S. Transportation and Security Administration Press Release, “TSA and EU Achieve Unprecedented Air Cargo Security Through Agreement,” June 1, 2012; Nicola Clark, “U.S. and European Union Agree on Air Cargo Security,” New York Times, June 1, 2012.
66. For example, the UK, the Netherlands, France, and Italy have been trying out full-body scanners at their airports, but Germany, Spain, and some Nordic countries remain more cautious about using the scanners. “EU Puts Off Reply To U.S. Request for Airport Body Scanners,” Agence France Presse, January 21, 2010; “Body Scanner Approved by EP, with Conditions,” Agence Europe, July 7, 2011; “Europe Sets Rules for Airport Body Scanners,” Agence France Presse, November 14, 2011.
67. Ron Nixon, “Unpopular Full-Body Scanners to be Removed from Airports,” New York Times, January 18, 2013; Jeff Plungis, “Naked-image Scanners to be Removed from U.S. Airports,” Bloomberg.com, January 18, 2013. For more information, see CRS Report R42750, Airport Body Scanners: The Role of Advanced Imaging Technology in Airline Passenger Screening , by Bart Elias.
68. Nicola Clark, “Europe Postpones Easing Rules on Carrying Liquids on Planes,” New York Times, April 30, 2011; Jonathan Stearns, “EU Abandons Plan to End Liquids Curbs in Air Travel in 2013,” Bloomberg.com, July 18, 2012; Tanya Mohn, “EU Eases Rules on Liquids on Planes,” New York Times, November 28, 2013.
69. “EU Hits at U.S. Plan To Scan Containers,” Financial Times, August 2, 2007; “U.S. Cargo Scanning Law Unfair,” Reuters, March 10, 2008; “Underwear Bomber Could Have Evaded Full Body Scanner,” Europolitics, March 29, 2010; “New Customs Pact Spells Likely End to 100% Scanning Rule,” Europolitics, May 7, 2012; Joel Griffin, “Maritime Cargo Scanning Mandate Extended,” SecurityInfoWatch.com, June 6, 2014.
70. For more information on the VWP, see CRS Report RL32221, Visa Waiver Program, by Alison Siskin.
71. ESTA checks the biographical information submitted against relevant law enforcement databases; those individuals not approved under ESTA must obtain a U.S. visa. ESTA approval is good for two years and valid for multiple entries.
72. Greg Miller, “U.S. To Step Up Screening of European and Other Visitors Who Don’t Need Visas,” Washington Post, November 3, 2014; Stephen Dinan, “Visa-free Visitors Must Give More Information as Terrorist Fears Grow,” Washington Times, November 3, 2014.
73. “Europeans Still Resisting Obama Over Guantanamo Inmates,” Deutsche Welle, February 17, 2010; Peter Finn and Anne Kornblut, “Obama Creates Indefinite Detention System for Prisoners at Guantánamo,” Washington Post, March 8, 2011.
74. See EP Resolution P7_TA(2013)0231, adopted May 23, 2013.
75. Peter Finn and Julie Tate, “Hurdles To Closing Guantanamo Just as High Under New Obama Plan,” Washington Post, May 23, 2013; Craig Whitlock, “Two Algerians Released from Guantanamo Bay,” Washington Post, August 29, 2013; Philip Rucker, “Obama Signs Defense Law, Calls It a ‘Welcome Step’ Toward Closing Guantanamo Bay Prison,” Washington Post, December 26, 2013; Charlie Savage, “5 Guantanamo Inmates Are Sent to Eastern Europe,” New York Times, November 20, 2014. Also see, “The Guantanámo Docket,” http://projects.nytimes.com/guantanamo.
76. See EP Resolution A7-0266/2012, adopted September 11, 2012.
77. “EU Investigation of CIA Flights May Threaten Intelligence Cooperation,” Associated Press, February 28, 2007; “The Dark Pursuit of the Truth,” The Economist, July 30, 2009.
78. Nikolaj Nielsen, “EU States Adopt New Counter-terrorism Plan,” EUObserver.com, July 9, 2014.
79. See, for example: Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, “Cybersecurity, Terrorism, and Beyond: Addressing Evolving Threats to the Homeland,” 113th Congress, September 10, 2014; House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Border and Maritime Security, “One Flight Away: An Examination of the Threat Posed by ISIS Terrorists with Western Passports,” 113th Congress, September 10, 2014; House Homeland Security Committee, “Worldwide Threats to the Homeland,” 113th Congress, September 17, 2014; and House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats, “Islamist Foreign Fighters Returning Home and the Threat to Europe,” 113th Congress, September 19, 2014.
80. As quoted in Dan Roberts, “Jim Sensenbrenner Takes NSA Reform Case to European Parliament,” The Guardian, November 11, 2013.
81. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy, Press Statement on Alleged NSA Surveillance of European Allies, October 29, 2013.
82. For more information, see CRS Report R41552, The U.S. Congress and the European Parliament: Evolving Transatlantic Legislative Cooperation, by Kristin Archick and Vincent L. Morelli.

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Ten Years After Indian Ocean Tsunami: Walking Last Mile Together On Early Warning – OpEd

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By Dr Shamshad Akhtar with Ministers from India, Indonesia, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Thailand*

On 26 December 2004, the world experienced one of the deadliest natural disasters ever recorded. A 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, triggered a massive tsunami that directly affected fourteen countries in Asia and Africa. The tectonic shifting of plates and the widespread impact of the resulting waves, led to 230,000 deaths and massive human suffering.

Ten years later, we come together as a community to commemorate the loss of those who fell victims to the wrath of nature and to recognize the suffering due to the natural disasters that have hit our region. This month, several affected countries in the region will host remembrance ceremonies for the Indian Ocean Tsunami. This is an opportunity to raise public awareness in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond on the importance of building greater resilience to natural disasters, and how we can collectively work to maintain this momentum enhancing our capacities to deal with such catastrophic events.

The 2004 Tsunami led to an unprecedented global outpouring of support, and a key lesson from the human tragedy was the importance of early warning. When the wave struck, early warning systems were inadequate. As a result, many received no warning except the sight of the wall of water rushing towards them. Our region must never again be caught so unprepared.

In the aftermath, the Asia-Pacific region embarked on a collective effort to develop approaches and mechanisms for better early warning systems to reduce the impact of future disasters. These efforts have intensified over the intervening years in Asia and the Pacific, the most disaster-prone region in the world. Building resilience in this region is not an option but an imperative to safeguard and promote sustainable development, lives and livelihoods.

The Indian Ocean Tsunami fundamentally changed how we deal with natural disasters, making a profound impact on policies and budgets as well as operational and technical work. Importantly, the experience of the Tsunami shaped the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which was adopted in Kobe, Japan, weeks after the disaster.

Real progress has been made in implementing the HFA and building Asia-Pacific resilience. Governance has been strengthened, with more than half of Asia-Pacific countries having enacted legislation and created institutions dealing specifically with disaster risk management. The budgetary allocations for disaster risk and mitigation works have been improved – although this varies across countries. Institutional capacities for early warning, preparedness and response have also been strengthened, but more must be done. The countries of Asia and the Pacific are redoubling efforts to reinforce implementation capacities, educate vulnerable communities and address underlying risks.

The regional commitment to early warning is reflected in the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Systems (IOTWS), which became operational in 2011, with Australia, Indonesia and India in charge of issuing regional tsunami bulletins. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) projects that this new system will save an average of 1,000 lives each year for the next 100 years.

On 11 April 2012, an earthquake of magnitude 8.6 off the coast of Indonesia provided a useful test of the IOTWS. Within 10 minutes of the quake, the countries at risk had received bulletins with tsunami warning information from the three regional service providers. In turn, millions of people received warnings and moved rapidly to higher ground. Fortunately no tsunami was triggered that day, but the experience suggests that real progress has been made since 2004.

At the national level, several countries have also made major investments in early warning systems, including setting up state-of-the-art warning centers, which have contributed to the Asia-Pacific region increasingly being considered a global hub for excellence in this field.

The tsunami also led to the creation of innovative funding mechanisms. Thanks to the Royal Thai Government’s contribution of US$ 10 Million, the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness was launched in 2005. Pooling resources from multiple donors to strengthen multi-hazard early warning systems, the Trust Fund has supported 26 projects benefitting 19 Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian countries. The Fund supported the establishment of the IOTWS, and has provided targeted support to countries facing high risks, but with limited national capacity.

Despite this progress we must not forget the importance of local level, community-based risk reduction. This “last mile” of early warning systems – the vulnerable communities at risk – remains a critical gap in need of additional attention and resources. It must be a high priority to ensure that the most vulnerable communities receive timely and understandable warnings that they know how to act upon in times of crisis.

So ten years on, how much better prepared is the Asia-Pacific region for a major tsunami? Considerably better than we were in 2004, but the full answer will only be known one day in the future, during the first few hours after a strong earthquake has caused a new tsunami. To prepare for that day, regional cooperation is essential, especially in early warning, as natural hazards know no borders.

Working together to reduce disaster risk and build resilience is comparable to pushing a big rock uphill together — if we do not constantly move forward, we risk sliding backwards. It involves developing a culture of preparedness and cooperation across the region, and shifting from a focus on response to a greater emphasis on prevention.

In June this year, the Royal Thai Government hosted the 6th Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction to consolidate the regional voice for a successor HFA agreement. As countries from around the world prepare to meet in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, the Asia-Pacific region will bring our essential lessons and experiences to help shape this new global framework.

Note about the authors.

  • Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP). She is also the UN’s Sherpa for the G20 and previously served as Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan and Vice President of the MENA Region of the World Bank.
  • General Tanasak Patimapragorn, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand
  • Dr. Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister for Ministry of Science & Technology and Ministry of Earth Sciences, Republic of India
  • Mr. Mahinda Amaraweera, Minister of Disaster Management, Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
  • Mr. Mohamed Zuhair, Minister of State, Ministry of Defence and National Security, National Disaster Management Centre, Republic of the Maldives
  • Dr. Syamsul Maarif, Minister/Chief, National Agency for Disaster Management, Republic of Indonesia

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Spain Condemns Killings In Deir Ez-Zor, Syria

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The Spanish government condemned Friday the killings carried out by the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (DAESH in Arabic) in the province of Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria, which have come to light following the discovery of mass graves containing the bodies of over 200 civilian members of the al-Sheitat tribe.

In a statement, the Spanish government said, “The deplorable crimes committed on a daily basis and claimed with the utmost cynicism by DAESH demonstrate the urgent need for a process of national reconciliation in Syria capable of allowing collaboration between all parties, both inside and outside the country, to fully eradicate this terrorist gang and bring its members to justice.”

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Spain: Man Crashes Car Into PP’s Madrid Headquarters

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Early Friday a Spanish man who was distraught over his financial situation intentionally crashed his car loaded with combustibles into the Madrid headquarters of the Partido Popular (PP), the ruling Spanish party of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Despite the driver being able to crash his car into the main entrance of the PP headquarters, the car did not explode nor were there were any personal injuries, the PP said.

According to PP officials, the incident isn’t being considered as a terrorist act, although security protocols were activated.

Local press is reporting that the man, identified as Daniel Perez Berlanga, (37), a bankrupt businessman, was upset as “he had lost everything.”

The PP said in a statement that the nature of the explosives that were found has still not been confirmed.

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The Half-Moon Shoal Trials: China’s Half-Hearted Response – Analysis

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China has responded softly to the Philippines’ conviction of nine Chinese fishermen for poaching near Half-Moon Shoal. China’s not-so-strident stance raises questions about its “historic rights” claim in the South China Sea.

By Lim Kheng Swe and Li Mingjiang

IN NOVEMBER 2014, a Philippine court found nine Chinese fishermen guilty of poaching sea turtles near the Half-Moon Shoal in the South China Sea. Manila claimed that the poaching took place in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). On that basis, the fishermen were fined US$102,000 each, and they may remain in jail until May 2015 as they are unlikely to be able to pay up.

China also claims sovereignty over the shoal. From Beijing’s point of view, the fishermen were in Chinese waters exercising China’s “historical rights”, and the Philippines had no right to arrest them and try them in a Philippine court. What is puzzling, though, is China’s low-profile response to the arrest, legal process, and verdict despite the fact that Chinese leaders have been expressing strong resolve to protect China’s maritime interests.

China’s Half-hearted response

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the arrest had infringed on China’s sovereignty and called on the Philippines to release the men and their boat. China, though, has not openly placed other forms of diplomatic pressure or other coercive means on Manila to release its citizens. China’s actions could be a gauge as to its current policy towards the South China Sea, behind the official statements.

Beijing’s stance stands in sharp contrast to its actions over a similar case in 2010, when the Japanese coast guard vessels arrested a Chinese fishing-boat captain in waters over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, turning him over to a Japanese court. Beijing suspended all high-level exchanges and blocked rare-earth exports to Japan, eventually securing the captain’s release.

The nine fishermen were arrested on 6 May 2014, after the Philippine coast guard spotted two Chinese fishing vessels in the vicinity of Half-Moon Shoal. One ship fled, but the Philippine authorities boarded the other vessel, and arrested the fishermen, taking them to Palawan to be charged and stand trial.

In response to their arrest, China demanded the release of the fishermen and their boat. China also placed pressure on the Chinese community of Palawan not to cooperate with the Philippine authorities, making it difficult for the courts to find an interpreter. Furthermore, the Chinese embassy refused to issue a “certificate of indigence”, which would qualify the defendants for a public lawyer, further delaying the trial.

China therefore tried to show that it does not recognise the jurisdiction of Philippine law primarily by using the loopholes of that very legal system, which contradicts the very aims it sets out to accomplish. This approach is very different from Beijing’s very vocal stance towards Japan in 2010, and has implications for its claims in the South China Sea. Beijing’s response, after the fishermen were found guilty, further cements the impression of China “going soft” on the issue.

Why so quiet?

Certainly, the “history issue” between China and Japan played a vital role in China’s response to Japan’s arrest of the Chinese captain. Chinese authorities may feel safe that a softer stance to the fishing dispute with the Philippines would not entail strong nationalistic backlash inside China. But, there are other factors that have helped shape China’s nearly quiet response this time around.

This small incident suggests that China is perhaps changing its tone over the South China Sea. There are four possible reasons: Firstly, China’s soft response may reflect the tacit understanding of many among the Chinese elite that China’s claim in the South China Sea, still ambiguous in some respects, has weaknesses.

China understands that, under mainstream interpretations of international law, it cannot realistically make an exclusive claim to the waters within the entire nine-dash line, disregarding the interests of its Southeast Asian neighbours. This is compounded by a second factor, namely that such fishing disputes happen very often in the South China Sea, meaning that China no longer has any strong impulse to act.

Thirdly, the Philippines has initiated an international arbitration that is mainly targeted at China’s positions in the South China Sea. Although China does not officially recognise the arbitration proceedings, it does not want to arouse international tension that may have an impact on the proceedings. China’s top priority is to encourage the tribunal to drop the case. Beijing may have feared that a high-profile and heavy-handed approach to the fishing dispute would only help the Philippine legal case.

Lastly, China is trying to mend fences with ASEAN countries after a few years of difficult interactions over the South China Sea disputes. China has proposed several initiatives, such as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the attempt to forge a “Diamond Decade” in the Sino-ASEAN partnership over the next ten years, and the declaration of 2015 as a Sino-ASEAN “Maritime Cooperation Year”. China would not want to take any actions that could scupper the positive trajectory in Sino-ASEAN relations.

Implications for China’s historical rights claim

China has not clearly defined its claim in the South China Sea, largely because of the ambiguity revolving around the nine-dash line. The policy discourses in China have revealed a few possible interpretations of the line. Emerging as mainstream is the view that China enjoys sovereignty over all the land features and “historical rights” in the waters within the whole nine-dash line.

The right of Chinese citizens to exploit the fishing resources within these waters has been a key component of the “historical rights” claim. This view is based on the argument that Chinese fishermen have historically exploited the resources within the nine-dash line for hundreds of years.

China faces a dilemma in its actual behaviour in the South China Sea. If it tries to press its claims strongly, it risks inflaming relations with its neighbours, hurting regional stability. However, by not doing so, China has not shown sufficient resistance over the arrest of its fishermen for exercising their ‘historical right’ to fish near Half-Moon Shoal. By taking such an approach, China is not standing up for its own claimed historical rights in the South China Sea, thus weakening its very claims in the South China Sea.

Lim Kheng Swe is a Research Analyst and Li Mingjiang is Associate Professor and Coordinator of the China Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

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Staples Data Breach Exposes 1.16 Million Cards In 115 Stores

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The world’s largest office supply retailer Staples has revealed that up to 1.16 million of its clients’ payment cards might have been “affected” by a massive malware attack on the company’s point-of-sales systems.

“Staples’ data security experts detected that criminals deployed malware to some point-of-sale systems at 115 of its more than 1,400 US retail stores,” the company said in a press release.

The investigation which was launched after the discovery of the malware attack in mid-September, revealed that the virus exposed some transaction data, including cardholder names and payment card numbers details.

“At 113 stores, the malware may have allowed access to this data for purchases made from August 10, 2014 through September 16, 2014. At two stores, the malware may have allowed access to data from purchases made from July 20, 2014 through September 16, 2014,” the company said.

After detection, Staples claims it has enhanced its security and worked closely with payment card companies and law enforcement on this matter.

Overall, the company believes that approximately 1.16 million payment cards may have been affected, in a breach which was first announced in October. To those affected the company is offering free identity protection services including “credit monitoring, identity theft insurance, and a free credit report.”

The Staples incident is the latest in a row of massive data breaches at large retailers in the US in less than a year. At Home Depot, data for 56 million cards and 53 million e-mail addresses was stolen in November. While in March, Target’s breach resulted in potential theft of 40 million cards and 70 million addresses and other personal information.

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Nakhchivan: A Short Introduction – OpEd

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According to early history, the current territory of Nakhchivan is the ancient land of Azerbaijan, it is considered to be one of the ancient civilization places and a cultural center of great importance in the world. The local settlers and people of Azerbaijan established an old and rich culture in Nakhchivan which continues to be present until today. The national history, development of scientific discoveries and the ancient cultural heritage of the Azerbaijani people has taken shape in Nakhchivan.

The word “Nakhchivan” has its origins, based on the historical sources, from the word “Nagshijahan” which means the “decoration of the world”, “adornment of the world”. But according to the wide spread legend and story among the local people the word “Nakhchivan” has a deep relation with the prophet Noah, namely, with the “world storm” that is “Nuhchuvan” –the place of Noah’s supporters, the land of Noah. It must be noted that the grave of Prophet Noah is in Nakhchivan. [1] Even the word Nakhchivan is explained “Nachuanna/Nakhchvan” which means the land of “miracle and splendid waters” or the place of “healing mineral waters”. Today, according to the new Constitution of the Republic of Azerbaijan and also accomplished by a referendum held in 1995, the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan is an autonomous region within the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Nakhchivan, with a population of over 460 thousand people has its own Constitution, Supreme Majlis, Cabinet of Ministers and Supreme Court. The Supreme Majlis of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic consists of 45 deputies (representatives). According to the Constitution the Chairman of the Supreme Majlis of Nakhchivan is the Supreme leader of the Autonomous Republic. The Supreme Majlis leader, Mr. Talibov Vasif Usif oglu, issues decrees and orders as they are described by the constitution of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and national constitution. The laws of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic are signed by the Chairman of Supreme Majlis of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

The national symbols of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic are the national flag, emblem of the Azerbaijan Republic, the national anthem of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The ruling system in Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is the same as in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The city and district administrations of the autonomous republic are headed by the executive power. The heads of the executive power is appointed by the President of the Azerbaijan Republic upon the recommendation of the Chairman of Supreme Majlis of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

During the decade of 1995 – 2005, around one hundred modern elementary and high schools were built in the cities and villages of the Autonomous Republic, new education buildings were constructed at the Nakhchivan State University, Nakhchivan Teachers’ Institute and Nakhchivan Private University, as well as new buildings were inaugurated for the Nakhchivan Branch of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences. Additionally six scientific research institutes began their operations. At the same time, cultural and educational establishments, sport centers and administrative buildings were built in the whole region of Nakhchivan.

Under the leadership of Nakhchivan’s leader Mr. Vasif Talibov there have been significant advancements towards the political, public and cultural processes which contribute in the wellbeing and economy of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijani nation.

Normal relations have been established and several agreements have been signed with the neighboring foreign countries including the Republic of Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. These relations have further strengthened the economic and trade ties in the region as well as have promoted a further advancement of the development of science, education and culture in Nakhchivan and throughout Azerbaijan.

Many historical-architectural monuments of Nakhchivan, including the Momine Khatun Sepulchers, Garabaghlar Vault Complex, Yusif Kusеyr oghlu Vault, the Khan’s House, Buzkhana, Imamzadeh Sanctuary Complex, Alinjechay Khanegah Complex, Ismayilkhan Bath-House, and other historic buildings have been overhauled and restored properly. The home-museums of J.Nakhchivanski, H.Javid, M.S.Ordubadi, J.Mammadguluzadeh and Y.Mammadaliyev have been reconstructed. Bahruz Kangarli’s name has been perpetuated and his home-museum was built during this administration. The 150th jubilee of the distinguished poet, professor and philosopher M. T. Sidgi was celebrated, his plays were published and various conferences were held in his honor. A monumental sepulcher has been erected in memory of H. Javid.

Under the leadership of Mr. Talibov, in July 2006 was held the International symposium “Nakhchivan in the international sources”. This event played an important role in the study of Nakhchivan’s history from the based on the research conducted by scholars and international academicians. This was the best response to the lawless territorial claims of Armenian chauvinists in regards to Nakhchivan. In June, 2006, was held another scientific symposium organized by the Supreme Assembly of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republi, the Azerbaijan National academy of Sciences, A.A.Bakichanov Institute of History, and the Nakhchivan Branch of the Academy as well as the Nakhchivan State University. Over 50 academic papers were given at the symposium which was attended by Turkish and Iranian scientists as well. Additionally on September 14-16, 2000 was held the international symposium under the topic of “Natural Resources of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and ways for a more effective Use”.

Another initiative of Mr. Vasif Talibov, which fosters the study of the local history is the special decree destined to the study of the Gamigaya complex of historic-ethnographic monuments, signed in April 26, 2001. These activities ensure again that Nakhchivan has been an integral part of Azerbaijan since prehistoric times and belongs to the Azerbaijani people. Thanks to this decree, archeological and ethnographic expeditions are arranged every year in the Gamigaya complex.

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Climate Change: Glimmers Of Hope? – Analysis

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With the weaker-than-expected agreement at the recent Climate Change Conference at Lima, there is an urgent need to replicate innovative green endeavours in civil society and business for a sustainable global economy with grassroots empowerment.

By Rajni Bakshi*

Chennakhotapalli, a village on the Bangalore-Hyderabad highway, could be a show case for climate mitigation action. Over a thousand farmers in the area are running projects—like organic agriculture and cooking without coal or wood—under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that reduce carbon emissions. But most of them are under no illusion that their efforts will actually stem climate change.

The CDM, a part of the Kyoto Protocol, encourages emission-reduction projects in developing countries, which earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits. Each credit is equivalent to one tonne of CO2, and can be sold and traded—mostly to be used by developed countries to meet their emission reduction targets.[1]

So why do communities around Chennakhotapalli participate in the programme and yet have few expectations of change at the macro level? Because they know that without a major paradigm shift in technology and business models, climate change cannot be stemmed, no matter how many villages and towns join the CDM.

While micro endeavours like the ones around Chennakhotapalli are celebrated at international gatherings like the recent Conference of Parties on climate change at Lima, their demand for a profound shift away from “business as usual” remains on the fringes. Thus, government-level negotiations are reduced to haggling over who has a greater “right” to add carbon to the earth’s atmosphere. [2]

At the same time, given that the outcome of the Lima summit has been lower than the lowest expectations, there is an increasingly urgent need to highlight efforts by civil society and businesses to create the building blocks of what can eventually become a paradigm shift.

Hence farmers in a seemingly unremarkable village in South India are working to move to a different paradigm—one that replenishes rather than depletes the environment—and believe that it is possible.

Over the last quarter century many of them have been closely involved with Timbaktu Collective, a local non-governmental organisation that has revived hundreds of acres of barren land—filling it with trees, shrubs, pastures, and water bodies—using mostly organic methods that have a low eco-footprint. [3]

India is home to hundreds of such innovative endeavours, many of which are inspired by Gandhi’s critical insight that an economic system that treats greed as a positive value is not sustainable.

This is what British economist Nicholas Stern confirmed when, in a 2006 report for the British Treasury, he famously described climate change as the greatest market failure in history, because everyone pursuing their self-interest has led to a collectively self-destructive outcome.[4]

Many who share this assessment have creative responses to offer. For example, British billionaire Richard Branson supports a Carbon War Room, a potential hub for technologists, financiers, and innovators. This initiative aims to accelerate the adoption of business solutions that reduce carbon emission at a gigaton scale. According to the Carbon War Room’s website, almost all the technologies required to make a dramatic shift towards a low carbon economy already exist but are not being used on the scale required because government policy and financial systems are lagging behind. [5]

The Rocky Mountain Institute in the U.S., led by Amory Lovins, co-author of the book Natural Capitalism, published in 1999, has been working closely with businesses to deploy technologies that will inaugurate a new industrial revolution. On 17 December, the Carbon War Room and the Rocky Mountain Institute announced an ambitious collaboration to advance market-based solutions to drive global energy use away from fossil fuels. [6]

However, these positive trends are up against daunting odds. The Green Climate Fund of the UNFCC needs to raise $100 billion annually for climate action, but at present governments have made a total commitment of only about $9.7 billion.

Contrast this with the estimate of the International Energy Agency which states that there is still an annual global subsidy of $544 billion for fossil fuel consumption. [7] To top this, the International Monetary Fund, which also takes into account the negative effects of burning fossils, estimates that the subsidies actually amounted to about $1.9 trillion in 2011. [8]

The G20 governments are not only lagging behind in commitments they have made to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, they are annually spending about $88 billion to subsidise the quest for still more fossil fuels. [9]

It is in this context that the farmers around Chennakhotapalli don’t see CDM as a solution. If human life is to be sustained right into the 21st century, the solution is not merely technology or finance but a shift in the value system. The folks at Timbaktu have etched their creed on a stone that marks the entry to their land: “Live simply so that others may simply live.”

*Rajni Bakshi is Gandhi Peace Fellow, Gateway House. This feature was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

References

[1] Clean Development Mechanism, Mission statement, 17 December 2014 <http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/mechanisms/clean_development_mechanism/items/2718.php>

[2] Bakshi, Rajni, ‘The Lima Agreement’, Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, 17, December, 2014, <http://www.gatewayhouse.in/the-disappointing-lima-agreement/>

[3] Timbaktu Collective Vision-Mission Statement, 15 December, 2014, <http://www.timbaktu.org/about-us/vision-mission-philosophy/>

[4] Stern Review on Climate Change, 18 December, 2014, <http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130129110402/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm>

[5] Carbon War Room Mission statement, <http://www.carbonwarroom.com/what-we-do/mission-and-vision>

[6] Richard Branson and Amory Lovins Create Mega-Think Tank for Clean Energy by Stephen Lacey, December 17, 2014, < http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/richard-branson-and-amory-lovins-create-mega-think-tank-for-clean-energy>

[7] Energy Subsidy Reform, Executive Summary, <http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/012813.pdf>

[8] Bast, Elizabeth, Shakuntala Makhijani, Sam Pickard and Shelagh Whitley, November 2014, <http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9235.pdf >

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Cuba: End Of Isolation – Analysis

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The U.S. has finally ended its outdated policy of isolating Cuba. It is a triumph for the proud and courageous Cubans who have withstood so many overt and covert destabilisation attempts by the U.S. It is also a victory for Latin America which has opposed the U.S. embargo and advocated normalization of relations with Cuba.

By R. Viswanathan*

In a surprise and dramatic move, U.S. President Barack Obama announced on December 17 the re-opening of diplomatic relations with Cuba. He was honest and candid in admitting the failure of his country’s outdated policy of isolating Cuba for the last five decades. Having tried every trick for ‘regime change’ in Cuba without success, the U.S. has finally decided to change its own policy, and swallowed its pride.

It is a triumph for the little nation which has withstood the big bully and its numerous overt and covert destabilisation attempts. It should be a personal satisfaction for the legendary Fidel Castro, who has survived several assassination attempts by CIA. The courageous and proud Cuban leadership has stood its ground despite adversities and U.S-inspired conspiracies. Recognising the fact that Obama too has shown exceptional boldness with his initiative, the Cubans have responded with grace, holding their head high and without conceding on their principles. President Raul Castro said in his TV address on December 17, “President Obama’s decision deserves the respect and acknowledgement of our people,” adding, “we must learn the art of coexisting with our differences in a civilized manner”.

It is also a victory for Latin America as a whole. Despite the disapproval of the U.S, all the countries of the region have maintained diplomatic relations with Cuba, consistently opposing the embargo and calling for their removal in regional and global forums for decades. On December 17, at the Mercosur summit in Parana, Argentina, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez said in her opening statement, “I thought we were never going to see the end of the U.S. Cuban embargo.”

The Latin Americans remember well the U.S. role in the destruction of democracies and violation of human rights in some of their own countries, even as the U.S. did business with communist dictatorships in China and Vietnam. Nor have they forgotten the repeated U.S. military interventions in Cuba after the end of Spanish rule, and especially the humiliating Platt Amendment passed by the U.S. Congress in 1901, under which the U.S. government asserted its right to interfere in the internal affairs of that country. Latin Americans also believe the U.S. embargo perpetuated the dictatorial regime of the Castros. Had the U.S. kept people-to-people contacts open, the Castro brothers may have been swept away like many other military dictatorships in the region during the wave of democratisation in the eighties.

In a clear message to the U.S, the Latin Americans formed in 2011 the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in which they have included Cuba and excluded U.S. This is a regional forum to discuss its destiny without the usual U.S. interference.

In the last Summit of the Americas held in 2012 in Cartagena, Colombia, all the Latin American and Caribbean heads of state voted to invite Cuba to the next summit. Some had even threatened to boycott future summits if Cuba was not invited. Even the host and U.S. ally President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia said, ‘No Cuba, no summit.’ Ecuador president Rafael Correa had already boycotted the 2012 summit protesting the exclusion of Cuba.

Consequently, the U.S, which had kept Cuba out of the Summit of the Americas – a forum created by the U.S. in 1994 – found itself isolated on the Cuban issue. Facing the united pressure of Latin America, the U.S. reluctantly agreed to the inclusion of Cuba in the forthcoming summit in Panama in April 2015.

The loosening of the U.S. economic restrictions is timely for Cuba whose patron Venezuela is in a helpless mess, unable to continue its generous supply of oil and aid to Cuba. Hugo Chavez, who worshipped Fidel Castro as his hero, went out of his way to help Cuba which had endured hardship after the end of Soviet aid following the collapse of the USSR. The state-controlled economy of Cuba is in shambles, facing a shortage of foreign exchange, endless queues before empty supermarket shelves, crumbling infrastructure and public services. The end of political isolation and the economic embargo will help Cuba attract foreign investment and tourist dollars, export its goods to the U.S. market and revive its agriculture and industry. The economy needs reform, growth and export markets to transform itself in the same way as China and Vietnam have.

India has always opposed the U.S. economic embargo and isolation on Cuba. The two countries have had warm relations, both bilaterally and multilaterally, including on non-alignment. Fidel Castro gained instant publicity in India when at the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in New Delhi in 1979, Castro famously met former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi with a Latin hug. Of all the countries in Latin America, Cubans are the largest beneficiaries of India’s ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) aid programme. Once the U.S. sanctions on Cuba are lifted and the country starts to rebuild its broken economy, there will be opportunities for Indian business too.

For now though, the U.S. rapprochement will not create a dramatic change in Cuba. President Raul Castro will continue his policy of gradual and calibrated economic liberalisation without letting go of political control, as China and Vietnam have been doing. Ultimately, the change in Cuba will come from within, rather than from an outside prescription.

*Ambassador Viswanathan is Distinguished Fellow, Latin America Studies, Gateway House. He is the former Indian Ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela, and Consul General in Sao Paulo. This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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Iraq: Three Top Islamic State Leaders Confirmed Killed In Air Strikes

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Iraqi officials have confirmed the death of a key aide to the Daesh, or ISIL, group leader and one of his military chiefs in the US-led coalition airstrikes in northern Iraq.

The airstrikes killed a confidante of Ibrahim Samarrai, who is known by the alias Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and one of his military chiefs. A third militant, described as a mid-level leader, was also killed in the airstrikes.

Iraqi officials also said that their operations are beginning to weaken the terrorist group’s leadership structure in Iraq.

Earlier, US officials also confirmed that two senior ISIL leaders were killed in coalition airstrikes in north of Iraq.

The Daesh militants, who have seized swathes of land in Iraq, have been carrying out horrific acts of violence against all communities in the Arab country.

The US-led coalition began targeting positions held by the ISIL terrorists in Iraq in August but the raids have so far failed to dislodge the Daesh.

On Thursday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said that the Iraqi security forces have succeeded to push away ISIL militants in several provinces but called on the international community to work closer with Baghdad in the fight against the terrorist group.

Original article

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Pakistan: A School Becomes A Killing Field – OpEd

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The massacre of 134 children in the early morning attack in Peshawar should prompt Pakistan’s military and political leaders to reconsider their conflicted approach to the insurgency that is threatening the entire region.

By Sameer Patil

Unlike the attack on the Lindt Chocolate Café in Sydney, Australia on 15 December 2014, the attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, Pakistan on 16 December 2014 was an organised attempt by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to hit out at the Pakistan Army’s interests.

This attack by Mullah Fazlullah’s TTP is a response to the Pakistan Army’s military operation in North Waziristan launched in June 2014. Although the Pakistan military had claimed success in operation Zarb-e-Azb, the attack on the Army Public School clearly shows that the TTP has been able to maintain its operational network, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region which has emerged as a hub of militant activity.

The TTP split into various factions in May 2014 and these divided factions are battling for supremacy and publicity by engaging in terror attacks. The retributive suicide attack on the Pakistani side of the Wagah border in November 2014 which had claimed over 50 lives, is also an example of this strategy.

The killing of school children and teachers in the Peshawar school further substantiates the need for Pakistan to demonstrate resolve in combating all terror-related violence, and not distinguish between the terror groups attacking Pakistan’s interests versus anti-India terrorist outfits.

Gateway House’s National Security and Terrorism Studies Fellow, Sameer Patil, mapped the evolution of the TTP in an article published on November 11, 2013.

The November 1 U.S. drone strike that killed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Amir, Hakeemullah Mehsud, has created problems for Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistani army, temporarily intensified U.S.-Pakistan troubles – and potentially re-opened the space for an American role in Kashmir.

For Nawaz Sharif, a long time opponent of drone strikes, the continuing strikes – with Pakistani military consent – is a major embarrassment. It also foils his initiative of holding peace talks with the TTP – talks the U.S. had opposed. Hakeemullah Mehsud’s killing has exacerbated anti-U.S. sentiments in Pakistan.

Predictably, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan who supported talks with the Taliban, has exploited this anti-American wave. On November 4, the PTI-led Khyber Paktunkhwa assembly voted to cut off NATO supply routes if drone strikes do not cease by November 20. Khan may get support from the Pakistan Army for standing up to American pressure – but his pro-Taliban talks position is in contradiction with the Army’s anti-Taliban talks stance.

The TTP has repeatedly targeted the Pakistani Army and its facilities, and it has a major challenge now in dealing with the TTP’s retributive attacks. The new TTP chief, Mullah Fazlullah – nicknamed ‘Radio Mullah’ for his use of FM radio for religious sermons – is a known Islamic hardliner who has dismissed the peace talks as a ‘waste of time’ unlike predecessor Hakeemullah Mehsud who had demonstrated openness to talking with Islamabad. But Fazlullah also has to consolidate his position, and stand up to pressures from the 28 disparate groups that make up the TTP, manage TTP links with al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.

Don’t expect a U.S.-Pakistan rift. The bilateral is still stable because the U.S. needs Pakistan to secure its drawdown from Afghanistan and Pakistan needs American aid funding. In fact, the events of the last week have unexpectedly re-created an opportunity to project a positive U.S. image in Pakistan – through its potential mediation on Kashmir. In a new book, former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S., Husain Haqqani, reveals that in 2009, Washington secretly told Pakistan that in lieu of Islamabad ending support to terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the U.S. would nudge India on the Kashmir issue.

Allowing the U.S. to continue drone strikes would fulfill some part of this deal – and enable Nawaz Sharif to strengthen his domestic position, should the U.S. agrees to mediate in Kashmir. Sharif already holds some domestic trump cards: Army chief General Kayani retires on November 29 and feisty Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhry will cede the bench on December 11. This gives him a chance to influence Pakistan’s polity by appointing his preferred choices in these two positions.

Nota bene: Sharif would do well to choose carefully; past army chief Musharraf replaced him in a coup.

*Sameer Patil is Associate Fellow, National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism, at Gateway House. This feature was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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India 2015: China’s Check Or Mate? – Analysis

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From the Indian perspective, how China manages the readjustment of its economy and how secure South Asia remains, will be two major determinants that will influence world affairs in 2015. Gateway House has developed four scenarios to explain the outcomes that will ensue, starting 2015, when these two determinants intersect.

By Akshay Mathur with Gateway House research team*

2015: The year that India can. A new, wants-to-do government. A system that’s cranking up once more. Stalled infrastructure projects being revived. Jobs matter again. Ecologically sustainable business models are being considered. Tech on the rise. States taking more of the initiative. A controlled fiscal deficit due to unexpected savings from falling oil prices. A proactive foreign policy has raised India’s profile. Economic diplomacy has re-ignited investor interest. A free-trade agreement with ASEAN fulfils the Acting East promise. Securing our neighbourhood with active diplomacy and aid, to ensure stability in South Asia.

So what can change this promising picture?

In a word, China.

At every step, India will come up against the great wall of China – to our benefit or to our detriment.

Will China check or charm India?

Like India, China too is in high gear. Regionally, it is an economic and geopolitical aggressor. Its giant $9 trillion economy has plateaued, forcing it to expedite its move towards an open economy. The world’s factory is now focused on becoming a consuming economy too. Technology imitation is giving way to genuine innovation. China has gigantic exports but its massive aid now dominates financing in Asia, Africa and Latin America – sometimes more than that of powerful multilateral agencies like the World Bank or bilateral agencies like the US Exim Bank. It’s acquiring energy assets on the earth, and securing a place in space, beyond the moon to Mars. The People’s Liberation Army has aggressively advanced influence into Central Asia, Pakistan, Nepal and is adventuring into India. Its navy already asserts itself in the South China Sea and is now seeking parity in the Indian Ocean with other naval powers. It’s on a mission to replace America in a unipolar world.

These ambitions require varied levels of adjustment by China, a tuning that is already evident from the slowing of its economy. This is natural, as a developing country stabilises and moves to more advanced levels.

The question is: will China’s adjustment be orderly, or disorderly? A methodical realignment will require Beijing to rein in its extravagant public spending by instituting prudent lending by its banks and reduced foreign aid and acquisition programmes. A disorderly slowdown will disrupt the financial system, perhaps causing damage to domestic banks, property prices to crash and manufacturing to slow. In turn this will impact China’s domestic employment and wages, and global trade and financial linkages.

From the Indian perspective, two determinants will influence world affairs in 2015. China, as explained above, is the dominant one. The second is stability in our neighbourhood, in particular, security risks emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Another Mumbai-style attack in India, a military coup in Pakistan, the resurrection of Taliban in Afghanistan, the resumption of anti-India terrorist groups in Bangladesh, and rising inequality and resident insurgencies in India – these can all destabilise South Asia.

Energy, which until now, would have competed as a determinant, is no longer a risk for India in 2015 – barring geopolitical shocks or natural catastrophes in the producing regions.” The world is in the low point of a boom-bust oil cycle, which, thanks to viable alternate energy finds, could last two decades.

Gateway House has developed four scenarios, to explain the outcomes that will ensue, starting 2015, when these two determinants intersect.China-check-or-mate-2

1. A stable South Asia that intersects with an orderly slowdown in China will strengthen the rise of the South and its effort to create an alternate political and economic architecture that more accurately reflects its own conditions and global heft. Forums like BRICS will lead the way. BRICS, Zindabad.

Impact on India: India and China will have a more equal voice in creating alternate global governance structures.

2. Unstable South Asia that overlaps with an orderly Chinese economic slowdown will strengthen China’s authority in new institutions, even as it increases its influence in the existing world order. China will be on course for parity with the United States, resulting in a G2.

Impact on India: India will be sidelined, as it will no longer be required as the swing power. The US and China will be making the global decisions, not necessarily in our interest. India excluded from new global trade agreements like TTP, FTAAP.

3. If both South Asia and China are unstable – South Asia because of security, and China because of the economy – then the US will consolidate its power and retain its unipolar dominance. Co-operation with Pakistan for a tidy drawdown of troops from Afghanistan is on the cards, as is a surrender by India on trade and climate change negotiations. The dollar strengthens with the US exercising ‘exorbitant privilege.’ BRICS and G20 recede in importance, and the World Bank and IMF call the shots again. The Voice of America will be gospel.

Impact on India: The US will become India’s godfather – pre-eminent arms provider, and pressure will mount to assist US in military interventions in West Asia. The US will disregard IPR issues to promote its multinationals. It will be back to the 1970s, when India depended on the US for capital, technology and innovation.

4. A stable South Asia combined with a disorderly Chinese economic slowdown will reinforce Democracy Dividends – The vibrancy of private sector-led entrepreneurship, public participation in political processes, adoption of business models that serve both stake-holders and shareholders, and framing of equitable policies.

Impact on India: Achhe din, for sure. Focus away from counter-insurgency and law-and-order issues. World will look to India as a reliable alternative to China for goods and services – giving us room to grow, sustainably.

Recommendations for India:

Scenario 1: BRICS Zindabad

  • Promote a non-dollar architecture, in the face of stiff resistance from the West.
  • Institutionalise a decentralised model of renewable energy generation for bottom-up wealth creation.

Scenario 2: G2

  • Never waste a good crisis: follow up reforms for governance, national security, and electoral processes.
  • Strengthen relations with other stagnant powers like the EU, and Japan, and actively excluded powers such as Russia.

Scenario 3: Voice of America

  • Focus on building the Asian Security Quadrilateral – US, Japan, Australia, India – and call on promised US support for UN Security Council permanent membership.
  • Resist IPR pressures on pharma and agriculture.

Scenario 4: Democracy Dividends

  • Influence global policy away from militaristic solutions, re-experiment with non-violence.
  • Increase women in the workforce as cornerstone of Make in India campaign.

Methodology:

The above is broadly based on the Net Assessment method, usually used to prepare policy-makers for scenarios that are or are not likely to occur in the future.

The above process produced 48 scenarios, viewed through the lens of 16 major categories: Trade, Currency Wars, Terrorism, Inequality/Democracy, China’s growth, Climate Change, South Asia, Iran & West Asia, Chinese aggression targeted at India, Fight for Multilateral & Regional Dominance, Disasters & Pandemics, Technology-enabled Aggression, Energy.

About the authors:
*Akshay Mathur is Geoeconomics Fellow and Head of Research at Gateway House

Research Team:
Geopolitics: Neelam Deo
Geoeconomics: Rajrishi Singhal, K N Vaidyanathan, Akshay Mathur
Energy: Amit Bhandari
Security: Sameer Patil
Democracy and Nation-Building: Rajni Bakshi

Editor: Manjeet Kripalani

Researchers: Karan Pradhan, Sharmadha Srinivasan

This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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The Indian Ocean Zone Of Peace: Sifting ‘Facts’ From ‘Illusion’– Analysis

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By Abhijit Singh

“In theory”, a popular saying goes, “there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice there is”. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s recent pitch for an Indian Ocean Zone of Peace (IOZOP) at the Galle dialogue in Sri Lanka is a classic example of theoretical formulations not always meeting the test of practical utility. In principle, the proposal to declare the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as a zone of peace is strikingly apposite. Increasing Chinese presence and the threat of PLA-N bases in the IOR, the growing interests of other major powers (US, UK, Russia, France and Japan) in the region, and the many Chinese infrastructure projects in the region, create an imperative for India to actively limit the military maritime activity of external powers in the region. But attempting to do so through the IOZOP route will ensure that while no military activity is ever practically curtailed, Indian influence and credibility in the region will stand severely eroded.

The trouble with the IOZOP proposal is its flawed premise: that by simply declaring the region a “Zone of Peace”, foreign military presence and activity can be effectively halted. Proponents of the proposal believe that in the absence of military strength and influence to counter the growing Chinese presence in the region, India should use the multilateral route to create a consensus for preventing the military activity of external powers in the region. A study of the past would, however, disabuse ardent Indian Ocean peaceniks of the efficacy of such a proposal.

In an op-ed in The Hindu recently, T.P. Sreenivasan, India’s representative to the Ad Hoc Committee on the Indian Ocean in the early 1980s, brought out that the original 1971 proposal of an IOZOP was not so much about peace and tranquillity in the IOR, as it was about circumscribing the presence of Western powers in the region. The Ad Hoc Committee, he points out, considered the various provisions of the proposal at length but none was found feasible because members stood bitterly divided on the issues. Most permanent members – except China – were vehemently opposed to the suggestion of no bases in the IOR. The littoral and hinterland members, on the other hand, supported it. “The innumerable problems India has faced on account of the U.N. resolution and the U.N. Ad Hoc Committee on the Indian Ocean”, Sreenivasan perceptively points out, “must be recalled before we take any formal initiative in this regard.”

Opposition to the proposal from the major maritime powers is likely to arise this time as well, the only difference being that today China too would likely join the chorus for rejecting the proposal. With growing Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean, it is almost a given that Beijing would actively reject any suggestion that seeks to limit China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean. More worryingly, any such proposal would be detrimental to India’s own power-projection in the neighbourhood. Sri Lanka’s original 1971 proposal, as Sreenivasan points out, was driven not only by the fear of extra-regional military presence but also by a perceived uneasiness about growing Indian naval power particularly in the aftermath of the 1971 war when the Indian Navy had launched an audacious attack on Karachi. In some ways, the IOZOP was an attempt by Colombo to buy some insurance against any possible Indian designs on Sri Lanka.

Paradoxically, it is India that has been dichotomous in its security approach to the Indian Ocean – opposing, on the one hand, extra-regional military presence and yet depending on US naval power to underwrite regional security. Expectedly, the response to the revival of the IOZOP too has been fanciful on many levels. First of all, the Indian Navy might be a net-security provider in the region but it also honestly admits to a lack of capacity that renders assistance by other maritime players in the region a rank imperative. A principal precept of the Indian Navy’s maritime strategy is cooperative security and meaningful contributions in this regard have so far come only from the big naval powers in the region.

Secondly, the real danger from an Indian standpoint is not increased US interest in the Indian Ocean Region but the lack of it. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the US Pivot to the Pacific, American interest in the Indian Ocean has been waning. With the shale revolution, the US is losing interest in the Middle East. Consequently, its stakes in securing the flow of energy from the Persian Gulf too have reduced. Regrettably, US naval retrenchment from the region also means a reduced ability to confront larger threats to peace and security in West Asia. This is one reason why many other states are rushing to fill in the vacuum created by the impending American withdrawal. The UK’s announcement of reviving its maritime presence in Bahrain needs to be seen in this light.

While London’s decision to reopen its naval base in Manama, Bahrain, is a cause for worry mainly because it implies further militarisation of the IOR, the fact is that the Royal Navy never really ceased to be a presence in the region (the RN has four mine-hunter warships permanently based at Manama from where British Destroyers and Frigates in the Gulf are regularly supported). All that UK is now seeking is to bolster the existing infrastructure at the Port, providing its navy with a forward operating base that would enable sustained security operations and the accommodation of its service personnel.

This does not mean that RN ships will be a regular presence in the broader security affairs of the IOR; much of the heavy-lifting in the Western and Eastern Indian Ocean will still need to be done by indigenous powers like India. The Royal Navy’s new base merely implies the UK’s desire to be able to tend to security hot-spots such as the Islamic State’s threat to the Middle East and the Levant – areas that India might have no interest getting involved in. Similarly, France, Japan and Australia are marginal players in the strategic affairs of the Indian Ocean, even though each of them contributes substantively to regional security. Circumscribing their space for operations by imposing a moratorium on maritime activity and presence is likely to damage the cause of collective security in the region.

An additional concern is that once a Zone of Peace is declared, Pakistan might revive its proposal for a denuclearized Indian Ocean – a proposition first raised in the aftermath of India’s nuclear test in 1974 and one that New Delhi strongly resisted. This could be a potentially game-changing move that needs to be understood in its entirety before endorsing a Zone of Peace. Pakistan’s nuclear efforts in the Indian Ocean are motivated solely by the presence of India’s strategic submarine capability (the Arihant). The Pakistan Navy (PN) does not quite need a ballistic missile capable submarine as it is not bound by “no-first use” and does not consequently need a survivable weapon. It, however, feels compelled to counter India’s SSBN, which, it feels, has skewed the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. As a preliminary measure, the PN has invested in a naval tactical missile capability, but its aspiration to develop a strategic ballistic missile capable submarine has not proceeded beyond an expression of intent. Pakistan would, however, be happy to eschew naval tactical nuclear weapons if India were to take away its SSBN out of the equation. To compound matters, New Delhi’s backing of a ZOP in the IOR will leave it with no moral or political grounds to justify its opposition to a denuclearised Indian Ocean.

Lastly, while there is anxiety about China’s aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, many Indian Ocean states are not fully convinced that the PLA-N’s presence in the IOR poses an active threat to maritime security. It is highly unlikely – especially against the backdrop of Beijing’s proposal for a maritime silk road which has received enthusiastic backing from the Maldives and Sri Lanka – that other Indian Ocean states would be keen on a ‘ban’ on Chinese naval activity in the region. Yet, there is an almost universal acknowledgement of India’s contribution to the security and well-being of smaller Indian Ocean states (a case in point being the ‘fresh-water’ assistance recently rendered by the IN to Maldives).

In the event that a ZOP is announced, it is India that will stand to lose the most because its proposal will be seen as a ‘backdoor’ manoeuvre to limit the Chinese presence and an effective abdication of leadership and responsibility in the IOR.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheIndianOceanZoneofPeace_asingh_191214.html

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Celebrating Yalda Night – OpEd

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By Firouzeh Mirrazavi

Iranians around the world celebrate Yalda, which is one of the most ancient Persian festivals. The festival dates back to the time when a majority of Persians were followers of Zoroastrianism prior to the advent of Islam.

On Yalda festival, Iranians celebrate the arrival of winter, the renewal of the sun and the victory of light over darkness.

Considered the longest night of the year, Yalda eve is the night when ancient Iranians celebrated the birth of Mithra, the goddess of light.

Yalda, which means birth, is a Syriac word imported into the Persian language. It is also referred to as Shab-e Chelleh, a celebration of winter solstice on December 21–the last night of fall and the longest night of the year.

Ancient Persians believed that evil forces were dominant on the longest night of the year and that the next day belonged to the Lord of Wisdom, Ahura Mazda.

In addition to Iran, Central Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and some Caucasian states such as Azerbaijan and Armenia share the same tradition and celebrate Yalda Night annually at this time of the year.

On this night, family members get together (most often in the house of the eldest member) and stay awake all night long. Dried nuts, watermelon and pomegranate are served, as supplications to God for increasing his bounties, as well classic poetry and old mythologies are read aloud.

Iranians believe those who begin winter by eating summer fruits would not fall ill during the cold season. Therefore, eating watermelons is one of the most important traditions in this night.

Pomegranates, placed on top of a fruit basket, are reminders of the cycle of life–the rebirth and revival of generations. The purple outer covering of a pomegranate symbolizes birth or dawn, and their bright red seeds the glow of life.

As days start lengthening, ancient Iranians believe that at the end of the first night of winter which coincides with December 21 this year, darkness is defeated by light and therefore they must celebrate the whole night. As the 13th-century Iranian poet Sa’di writes in his book Boustan: “The true morning will not come until the Yalda Night is gone.”

Early Christians linked this very ancient Persian celebration to Mithra, goddess of light, and to the birth anniversary of Prophet Jesus (PBUH). In birth, sun and Prophet Jesus (PBUH) are close to each other, says one Iranian tale of Yalda.

Today, Christmas is celebrated slightly off from Yalda Night. However, Christmas and Yalda are both celebrated in a similar fashion by staying up all night and celebrating it with family and friends, and eating special foods.

In most ancient cultures, including Persia, the start of the solar year has been marked with the celebration of the victory of light over darkness, and the renewal of the sun. For example, 4,000 years ago, Egyptians celebrated the rebirth of the sun at this time of the year. Their festival lasted for 12 days to reflect the 12 divisions in their solar calendar.

The ancient Roman festivals of Saturnalia (god of agriculture, Saturn) and Sol Invicta (sun god) are amongst the best known celebrations in the western world.

Iranians adopted their annual renewal festival from the Babylonians and incorporated it into the rituals of their Zoroastrian religion. The last day of the Persian month Azar is the longest night of the year, when the forces of evil are assumed to be at the peak of their strength.

The next day, which is the first day of the month ‘Dey’ known as ‘khorram rooz’ or ‘khore rooz’ (the day of the sun), belongs to Ahura Mazda, the lord of wisdom. Since days become longer and nights shorter, this day marks the victory of the sun over darkness. The occasion was celebrated as the festival of ‘Deygan’, which is dedicated to Ahura Mazda on the first day of ‘Dey’.

Fires would be burnt all night to ensure the defeat of the forces of evil. There would be feasts, acts of charity and prayers performed to ensure the total victory of sun–essential for the protection of winter crops. There would be prayers to Mithra (Mehr) and feasts in his honor, since Mithra is the Eyzad responsible for protecting “the light of the early morning”, known as ‘Havangah’. It was also assumed that Ahura Mazda would grant people’s wishes, especially those desiring an offspring if all rites are performed on this occasion.

One of the themes of the festival was the temporary subversion of order. Masters and servants reversed roles. The king dressed in white would change place with ordinary people. A mock king was crowned and masquerades spilled into the streets. As the old year died, rules of ordinary living were relaxed. This tradition persisted till the Sassanian rule and is mentioned by Birouni, the eminent scientist and traveler, and others in their recordings of pre-Islamic rituals and festivals.

Its origin dates back to the Babylonian New Year celebration. They believed that the first creation was order, which was born out of chaos. To appreciate and celebrate the first creation, they held a festival and all roles were reversed. Disorder and chaos ruled for a day and eventually order was restored at the end of the festival.

The Iranian Jews, who are amongst the oldest inhabitants of the country, in addition to Shab-e Chelleh, also celebrate the festival of Illanout (tree festival) at around the same time.

The celebration of Illanout is very similar to Shab-e Chelleh’s. Candles are lit and a variety of dried and fresh winter fruits are eaten. Special meals are prepared and prayers are performed. There are also festivals in parts of southern Russia, which are identical to Shab-e Chelleh with local variations. Sweet bread is baked in the shape of humans and animals. Bonfires are lit, around which people danced and made movements resembling crop harvesting.

Comparisons and detailed studies of all these celebrations will shed more light on the forgotten aspects of this wonderful and ancient festival, where merriment was the main theme of the festival.

One of the other traditions of Yalda night, which has been added in recent centuries, is the recitation of the classic poetry of Hafez, the Iranian poet of 14th century AD. Each member of the family makes a wish and randomly opens the book and asks the eldest member of the family to read it aloud. What is expressed in that poem is believed to be the interpretation of the wish and whether and how it will come true. This is called Faal-e Hafez (Hafez Omen).

Coinciding with the beginning of the winter, Yalda is an occasion to celebrate the end of the crop season. It is today an event to thank the Lord for all blessings and to pray for prosperity in the next year.

Firouzeh Mirrazavi
Deputy Editor of Iran Review

The post Celebrating Yalda Night – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Longing For Lost American Dream – OpEd

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By Harun Yahya

The idea of the American Dream is rooted in the United States’ Declaration of Independence, which proclaims that “all men are created equal” and that they are “endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights” including “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

For these reasons, the American Dream emerged as a symbol of hope and freedom not only to the American people but also to the people of other continents. Citizens of countries under military rule or other oppressive dispensations have for years been longing to achieve the American-style democracy and liberal ideals. They also crave for the same liberty as enjoyed by their American counterparts. The US became the center of global attention because the Americans were a people who recognized that human beings were created with rights. And now?

For countries in chains, America used to be a dream, but now the dream has blurred. Anti-US sentiments are on the rise across the globe particularly in the Middle East. The rage against America is also growing even among its allies. Nobody believes any longer that the US can bring them democracy. Everyone now equates US promises of democracy with bloodshed and divisions.

That fine dream has to a large extent lost all influence with the East. However, the point I wish to emphasize is the effect on the American people. How and why did America, which we thought of as a country of happy, optimistic and go-getting people become a nation of suicides, aggression and protests? Why are the people of the country unhappy?

Many western writers investigating the subject ascribe this unhappiness to economic troubles. Economic collapse cannot be a reason for unhappiness; it is unhappiness that causes the collapse of economies. When people feel unhappy, insecure and uneasy, they tend to hide what they have away, rather than sharing and investing. Crisis comes in times like that.

The reasons leading the Americans to unhappiness are therefore different. We need to have a close look at the US administration’s policies in order to understand the reasons. The recently unveiled CIA torture report was nothing more than an official acknowledgment of what had already been well-known facts about America’s Middle East policies. People were not unaware of what went on in Abu Ghraib, or in the CIA’s torture stations found across the world. Statements such as “These things belonging to the past” are just an attempt to calm the American people. Everyone in the troubled spots in the Middle East knows that CIA stations are still active, maybe not as much as during Iraq’s occupation, and there still are countless prison camps with no rule of law, like the one in Guantanamo Bay.

This is not a policy that changes with America’s leaders. This is a policy of the secret state that every American leader has to implement. Successive American administrations have for years been monopolized by the secret state, the architect of these policies. These violent policies that came to the fore with the release of torture report is not exclusive to the Middle East.

Although human rights and freedoms are always kept on the agenda in America, the American people are also subjected to a similar policy of violence at home. Racism is astonishingly widespread in some states. People are free to bear arms and the police have the right to shoot anyone under circumstances they regard as suspicious. As required by this policy of violence, in most cases police fire is intended to kill, rather than to deter or neutralize people by wounding them. The Ferguson case is just one example.

While the US lifted the death penalty as a priority in Iraq, where it went for reasons of democracy, the death penalty is still actively implemented in several US states. Suicides are a terrible problem that America is now facing. One in every six US troops returning from the Middle East suffers from depression, and a soldier takes his own life every 84 minutes. The number of troops committing suicides in the last 10 years exceeds that of all those who died in Afghanistan and Iraq. The words of Deputy US Chief of Staff Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III on the subject are striking, “Suicide is the toughest enemy I have faced in my 37 years in the army.”

While the eyes of the US turned toward the Middle East because of the Sept. 11 attacks, it faces its own deep-rooted problems of hostage crises, school massacres in which children shoot teachers and fellow students, and serial killers. The country has moved away from its spiritual roots and religious believers are persecuted in many states. The fact that only 35 million people in America, which is home to 270 million Christians, actually attend church is a terrible sign.

It is a fact that the policy of teaching lessons through violence, for long determinedly observed by the US secret state, has wreaked havoc on the American people themselves. A strategy that regards love as unimportant can turn even such a fine and loving people as the Americans to pessimism and rage. As materialist education turns people away from religious values, violence is depicted as the only solution and young people are sent off to commit atrocities in the Middle East, these terrible outcomes have become impossible to avoid. Many of the American people no longer believe in American Dream to strive for.

The American Dream must return. Oppressive policies emerge in all those countries where secret states hold the rein; this must not be allowed to harm either those countries or America. It needs to be known that there is a rational majority in America that is strongly opposed to torture, war and hatred, and efforts should be made to restore the American Dream with them. Because America is a valuable country, its people are a fine people and this cause is a fine cause. The world will soon become a place when everyone enjoys equal rights given by the Creator, when freedom and democracy are perfectly applied, a place of delightful happiness. In order for that to happen, however, we need to strive together.

The writer has authored more than 300 books translated into 73 languages on politics, religion and science. He tweets @harun_yahya.

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Israel And Splendid Isolation – OpEd

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ALMOST A thousand Israeli personalities have already signed an appeal to European parliaments for their governments to recognize the State of Palestine.

I am honored to be among the signatories, which include former ministers and members of the Knesset, diplomats and generals, artists and businessmen, writers and poets, including Israel’s three outstanding writers Amos Oz, David Grossman and A. B. Yehoshua.

We believe that the independence of the Palestinian people in a state of their own, next to the State of Israel, is the basis for peace, and therefore as important for Israelis as it is for Palestinians. This, by the way, has been my firm conviction ever since the 1948 war.

The extreme right wing, which has ruled Israel in recent years, holds the opposite belief. Since it wants to turn the entire area between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River into the “nation-state of the Jewish people”, it totally rejects the setting up of a Palestinian state.

These, then, are the battle lines:

A Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital, an Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty, the end of the occupation, peace between Israel and the entire Arab and Muslim world, or a Greater Israel, continuous occupation or annexation, more settlements and ethnic cleansing, permanent war.

Israel has to choose.

So has the world.

LATELY, SEVERAL European parliaments have called upon their governments to recognize the State of Palestine. We want to encourage that process.

The Portuguese parliament did so last Friday, following the parliaments of the UK, Ireland, France and Spain. The European parliament, an institution with growing influence and power, has done so, too.

These are only recommendations. But the government of Sweden has officially recognized the State of Palestine. Some misguided spirits have stated that this was the first recognition of Palestine by a European Union country. That is quite wrong: Palestine has already been recognized by the EU countries of Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, as well at the European non-EU states of Albania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, Iceland, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine.

Quite an impressive list. But is it important?

THE AMERICAN Declaration of Independence stresses the importance of a “decent respect for the opinion of mankind”.

The Israeli declaration of independence does not include this phrase, but its whole composition shows that is an attempt to explain its aims to the world and attain world-wide diplomatic recognition.

However, David Ben Gurion, who read the declaration aloud at the founding meeting, soon after announced his doctrine: “It is not important what the Goyim say, the important thing is what the Jews do!”

Is this really true? Doesn’t the opinion of mankind count?

It was perhaps true 150 years ago, when Benjamin Disraeli proclaimed the British policy of “Splendid Isolation”. I doubt it. Even then, Great Britain was deeply involved in European and world affairs.

Since then, the world has changed profoundly. Governments have become much more democratic, mass education has broadened the basis of public opinion, undreamt of means of mass communication have promoted transparency, some speak of the “world village”.

Public opinion has a huge impact on politicians in democratic countries, and even in dictatorships. Where public opinion leads, governments sooner or later follow. Public sentiments become governing policy. This has diplomatic, economic and even military consequences.

THE UNITED NATIONS is the chosen vessel for voicing the “opinion of mankind”.

After its founding, Israel fought a hard battle for acceptance in the world organization. The declaration of independence, which promised democracy and equality for all inhabitants, played an important role in this struggle.

Yet Ben Gurion used to call the UN “Um-Shmum” (UM is the Hebrew acronym of the United Nations, adding the letters “Shm” is the Yiddish way of expressing contempt.

For more than 40 years now, this contempt has never been shaken. Israeli leaders relied on the US to block each and every Security Council resolution that the Israeli government disapproved of, irrespective of its content. If the UN had been asked to reaffirm the Ten Commandments contrary to Israeli wishes, the US would have vetoed them.

Now, for the first time in UN history, this sword of Damocles may disappear. The US has hinted that it may not veto a Security Council draft resolution that the Israeli government strenuously objects to.

Incredible! No US veto? It’s like saying that the sun may not rise tomorrow.

HOW COME? What has happened?

The simplest answer is that Barack Obama, like so many others, is fed up with Binyamin Netanyahu. Our prime minister has burned one bridge too many.

He has humiliated the US president time and again. He has let loose the hounds of AIPAC against him. And he has done the worst he can do to a politician: he has openly supported his opponents in the last two election campaigns.

The Prime Minister’s support of Mitt Romney was nothing short of scandalous. Netanyahu, following the orders of his owner, the primitive but enormously powerful casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, campaigned for Romney openly and unabashedly. In return, Adelson created and finances the Yisrael Hayom (“Israel Today”) newspaper, which, being distributed gratis, now has the widest circulation in the country. Its sole editorial policy is to support Netanyahu through thick and thin.

In the recent US mid-term elections, AIPAC assisted the Republicans again, helping them to turn the Senate into an anti-Obama bastion.

Obama has kept quiet. But he would be superhuman if he didn’t plot his revenge. He has done so by secretly encouraging the Europeans to go on with their pro-Palestinian efforts. Now he has come out into the open. The US has announced that it is considering not to use its veto.

At stake is a Palestinian draft that would have the Security Council set a one-year time limit for achieving a peace agreement and a three-year limit for the end of the occupation and the creation of a Palestinian State along the 1967 borders. For right-wing Israelis, that comes near to the end of the world.

At stake is also a French draft, which does not go so far but also sets a two-year time limit to peace negotiations.

These drafts would have been unthinkable just a year ago. They show Israel’s deepening isolation.

NO POLITICIAN likes radical breaks. After 41 years of an unbroken record of American use of the veto on behalf of Israel (and almost nobody else), not vetoing would be a revolutionary step. It may have a profound impact on US domestic politics, including the next presidential elections. It may hurt Hillary Clinton’s chances (perhaps an additional temptation for Obama.)

Also, important US strategic interests are involved. The Arab world may be in chaos, but it still unanimously supports the Palestinian cause diplomatically. America is relying on Arab participation in the coalition that is fighting against the Islamic State (ex-ISIS). An anti-Palestinian veto at this juncture would hurt all Arab governments who are inclined to join. Jordan, for example. Saudi Arabia. Egypt.

John Kerry, poor John Kerry, is rushing around meeting with “everybody and his wife” (as we say in chauvinist Hebrew slang) to find a solution. He is threatening Mahmoud Abbas with cutting off his funds. But Abbas rightly tells him that he has nothing to lose – if he cannot show some achievements very soon, the West Bank may well explode and the Palestinian Authority disintegrate.

In desperation, Netanyahu went to Rome to meet Kerry personally and had a stormy session with him. It seems that Kerry didn’t promise anything. Sa’eb Erekat had an even stormier session with Kerry, with shouting, table banging and all.

Ex-president Shimon Peres, out of office but still an inveterate spit-licker, went to help Netanyahu with the French. He appealed to the (converted Jewish) Foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, and pleaded with him not to hurt Netanyahu on the eve of elections.

Tzipi Livni, forgetting that she was dismissed from the government and is now a leader of the opposition, phoned Kerry to support Netanyahu.

Kerry took up the idea. He asked everybody to do everything to postpone the matter until after the Israeli elections.

Interfering in another country’s internal elections? God forbid! Who would dream of such a dastardly thing!?

YET WHATEVER the US does or does not do is interfering in our elections.

If it uses its veto, that is direct and blatant support of the extreme right-wing in Israel. It would show that Netanyahu was right all along, that America is in our pocket, that Israel’s isolation is a myth, that we can go on doing what we are doing, occupation, settlement and all.

If the US does not use its veto and a pro-Palestinian, pro-peace resolution is adopted, it would prove that the left-wing is right in asserting that the “opinion of mankind” does count, that the not-so-splendid isolation of Israel is growing to dangerous proportions, that a change of government and policy is urgently needed.

This week, Obama threw an international bomb: after 56 years of burning enmity between the US and Cuba, he announced the resumption of diplomatic relations. This shows that he has decided to use the two years left to him in power, without the possibility of being re-elected, in order to do what he reality wanted to so all the time, but was afraid to do. He can spite the Congress and do what his soul desires.

He can decide to act now decisively to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Let’s hope he does.

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