Ethanol fuel refineries could be releasing much larger amounts of some ozone-forming compounds into the atmosphere than current assessments suggest, according to a new study that found emissions of these chemicals at a major ethanol fuel refinery are many times higher than government estimates.

New airborne measurements downwind from an ethanol fuel refinery in Decatur, Illinois, show that ethanol emissions are 30 times higher than government estimates. The measurements also show emissions of all volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which include ethanol, were five times higher than government numbers, which estimate emissions based on manufacturing information. VOCs and nitrogen oxides react with sunlight to form ground-level ozone, the main component of smog.

If emissions at the more than 200 fuel other ethanol refineries in the U.S. are also being underestimated, these plants could be a higher source of VOC emissions than currently thought, according to the new findings accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.

Ethanol, a renewable transportation fuel made from corn, constitutes approximately 10 percent of the fuel used in gasoline vehicles in the U.S., according to the new study. The renewable fuel standard mandating the use of ethanol and other renewable fuels aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports, while encouraging development and expansion of the U.S. renewable fuels sector, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The new study is one of the first and most detailed investigations of emissions from ethanol fuel refining, according to its lead author Joost de Gouw, a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Information about the refining process is one piece of examining the entire lifecycle of ethanol fuel emissions, from growing the corn used to make the fuel to the effect of emissions on urban air quality, he said.

“Over the past decade, because of the renewable fuel mandate, we have added 10 percent of ethanol to all the gasoline that is sold in the U.S. and so the question is: what does that do to the environment,” de Gouw said. “That is a very complicated question and it has many different aspects. One of the aspects is the air-quality implications and, to get at them, we have to know what are the emissions associated with producing ethanol and using ethanol. That is where this study fits in.”

To make the measurements they report, de Gouw and his colleagues flew an airplane downwind of an Archer Daniels Midland ethanol refinery, the third largest producer of fuel ethanol in the U.S., and took air-quality readings at three different distances from the plant. The researchers used those to calculate emissions of various gases, including VOCs, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide.

They then compared their findings with government emissions estimates from 2011. Emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides – compounds generated by the coal-burning plant – were in-line with government estimates, but emissions of VOCs, including ethanol, were higher than government estimates. De Gouw said the VOC emissions are likely generated by the refining process, not the coal-burning that powers it.

The researchers also used government estimates and ethanol production numbers from the Renewable Fuels Association to analyze emissions from all fuel ethanol refineries in the U.S. and compare those to emissions from burning ethanol in motor vehicles.

Prevailing estimates had indicated that refining ethanol fuel and burning it in cars and trucks generate equivalent amount of VOCs, including ethanol. But, the new emissions measurements from the Decatur plant show that ethanol emissions from production of one kilogram of ethanol at the refinery are 170 times higher than what comes out of a vehicle burning the same amount of ethanol, de Gouw said. If the Decatur refinery is like most other refineries in the U.S., he added, “the higher emissions of ethanol and VOCs that we calculated from our data would make the refining process a larger source of these gases than burning the ethanol fuel in your car.”

“Obviously, this was just one refinery that we looked at, so we’d like to do more and see if these findings are more universal or if this plant was just exceptional,” de Gouw added.

The new study points to the need for more measurements of emissions coming from ethanol fuel refineries, said Dylan Millet, an associate professor of atmospheric chemistry at the University of Minnesota in St. Paul. He was not involved with the new research. Additional observational data will help scientists better understand the emissions and their impact on air quality, he said.

“If we are going to accurately assess the air-quality implications of our fuel choices, then these are important emissions to know,” Millet said.

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The coalition airstrikes, led by Saudi Arabia, targeted the key areas held by Houthi rebels at Sadaa in Yemen in the past 24 hours, destroying a communication facility, rebel headquarters and places where arms and ammunition were stored.

The air raids, which began on Friday evening, also successfully targeted rebel camps and gatherings, the Coalition Command said.

It urged civilians to stay away from Houthi gatherings and their military sites.

“We have kept two options open — military support to Operation Restoring Hope and, at the same time, a fitting response to those who carried out attacks on the cities of Najran and Jazan,” defense spokesman Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri told reporters at the Riyadh airbase on Saturday.

The coalition forces carried out 130 airstrikes targeting 100 sites in Sadaa, Maran, Albiqaa and the borders between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, he said.

“The air raids focused on the headquarters and command and control of the Houthi leaders. Currently, the aim of the operation now is to prevent the movement of the rebels, protection of Yemeni citizens and facilitation of relief and humanitarian work in the country,” Al-Assiri added.

The Coalition Command stressed that the airstrikes achieved its objective in Sadaa through destroying the headquarters of the Houthi leadership, including that of Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi in Duhayan, Jabal Al-Tyes and the Directorate of Majaz.

The Coalition Command said the air raids also targeted the headquarters of Mohammed Hassan Qabali in Bani Moaz in Sadaa, Ahmed Nasser Almaran in Bani Moaz in Saada, Hamid Alsmad, the official spokesman of the Houthi militia Mohammed Abdulsalam in Sohar Directorate, Houthi political office director Saleh Habra in Saada, Ahmed Saleh Hendi in Mzab, member of the Houthi Cultural Office Saleh Alsmad Abu Fadel, Abdulkarim Alhouthi in Dhyan, director of the Houthi militia office in Altalh Mehdi Al-Mashat and two headquarters of the Houthi militia military leaders (Dgsan and Abu Salem) in Saada, in addition to destruction of the headquarters of the leader of Yousef Al-Fishi.

The post Saudi Arabia Says Coalition Airstrikes Hit Houthi Terror Hub In Yemen appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

US President Barack Obama is known for his persuasive talents. Indeed, the upcoming Camp David summit may not only ease the minds of the invited GCC leaders and calm the anger aroused by the impending Iranian nuclear agreement. It may also turn a new page in the history of the region. Still, we are skeptical, because the task seems too difficult and complex to achieve.

Obama’s initiative has been a positive step following the series of negative measures the Gulf countries believe the US has taken against them in the negotiations with Iran — measures they feel have failed to take into account the enormous risks to other countries in the region. One writer, defending Obama, argues that the president’s open policy of seeking to resolve old tensions is not limited to Iran; he reinitiated ties with Cuba after 50 years, without imposing any conditions on Havana.

However, it is wrong to compare Iran with Cuba. Iran is a malignant force, while Cuba is benign and no longer represents a threat to any party. Tehran’s religious ideology is based on change and domination; it took part in the violence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Gaza, Yemen, Sudan and Central Africa, and further afield; Iran has been active in Southeast Asia, and involved in the bombings in Argentina. Cuba’s hostile military and political activities, on the other hand, ended at the beginning of the millennium, a decade and a half ago.

Both the matters to be discussed, and intentions of the participants at the Camp David summit, will make negotiations tricky. The Gulf states fear that the imminent nuclear agreement will solely deal with Iran’s nuclear program, thus opening the floodgates for Iran to threaten the Gulf region’s very existence.

If the architect of the US agreement wants to reassure everyone around the table at Camp David, he will hear a long list of issues linked to Iran. Many clashes between Iran and the Gulf countries may arise on land and at sea as a result of the potential vacuum left after the signing of any nuclear agreement, if the United States reduces its military presence or decides to remain neutral. Therefore, the imminent deal between Iran and the US poses a major threat to the countries of the Gulf region — not a source of security and stability, as the White House claims.

What can be seen as positive is that Obama decided to address these concerns and objections at Camp David before any deal is signed with Iran, in order for Arab Gulf leaders to pose questions about the nature of the mysterious agreement and its potential repercussions on their nations.

There is also a perception among them that the Camp David summit is just a marketing tool, from which Obama wants to promote the deal without making any real commitments or giving any clear answers.

What commitments could the US government and other western countries provide to ensure the security and stability of the Gulf? Arms sales and missile shields will not be enough; the most important thing is to get an explicit commitment that sets the boundaries for any attack from Iran or its allies against the Gulf countries. Such a commitment has succeeded in maintaining the stability of the Gulf region over the past five decades, with the exception of the war waged by Saddam Hussein on Kuwait. Due to this commitment and an American presence, Iran did not dare to cross the waters of the Gulf.

Such a commitment would not only help in maintaining the stability of the Gulf and guaranteeing the supply of oil to world markets, but would also be important to an Iran divided by internal conflict between its institutions and leaders. There are two groups in Iran; the first includes extremists who believe in expansion and domination, and the second wants to focus on internal reforms and end all foreign exploits.

A strong American stance, guarding against Iran’s exploitation of any nuclear agreement and pledging to maintain the security of the Gulf region, would strengthen the position of moderate Iranian leaders, and would push Iran toward seeking reconciliation and regional stability.

The post All Eyes On Camp David Meet With GCC Leaders – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Over 100,000 people from Yemen’s flashpoint Saada province fled to adjacent Amran over the past three days, a Yemeni official said Sunday.

“For the third day in a row, Amran is still receiving large numbers of displaced residents whose homes in Saada have been destroyed in front of them,” Faisal Jamaan, Amran’s governor, was quoted as saying by the official Yemeni news agency.

Since Thursday, a Saudi Arabia-led military coalition, which launched an operation in Yemen six weeks ago, has launched hundreds of airstrikes in Saada, the stronghold of Shiite Houthi militant group in northern Yemen.

The coalition on Thursday dropped leaflets on Saada’s residents, urging them to leave the province after declaring the whole of Saada a military target.

“Over 100,000 displaced people who have fled to Amran are in desperate need for humanitarian aid in these difficult circumstances,” Jamaan said.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia vowed a “harsh” response to what it described as recent Houthi “assaults” near the border with Yemen, which have left ten people dead in Saudi Arabia.

Since late March, Saudi Arabia and several of its Arab allies have been pounding Houthi positions across Yemen.

Riyadh says its campaign is in response to appeals by Yemen’s embattled President, Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, for military intervention against the Houthis.

The Houthis, meanwhile, denounce the offensive as an unwarranted “Saudi-American aggression” on Yemen.

The post Yemen: Over 100,000 Flee Saada In Past Three Days appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi authorities have conducted a concerted campaign since 2013 to detain and deport hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrant workers, resulting in abuses against many of them, Human Rights Watch said in a report released Sunday.

The 36-page report, “Detained, Beaten, Deported: Saudi Abuses against Migrants during Mass Expulsions,” draws on interviews with 60 workers deported to Yemen and Somalia who experienced serious abuses during the expulsion campaign. They described beatings and detention in poor conditions before they were deported. Many arrived back in their countries destitute, unable to buy food or pay for transportation to their home areas, in some cases because Saudi officials arbitrarily confiscated their personal property.

“Many of the hundreds of thousands of migrants Saudi Arabia has deported in the last year and a half have been sent back to places where their safety is threatened,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director. “Saudi Arabia should treat all migrants with respect and decency, regardless of their status, and provide a fair legal process, including the right to challenge their deportation.”

Saudi Arabia stopped deporting citizens of Yemen in late March 2015, following intensification of violent conflict in Yemen, in which Saudi armed forces were involved. In April, Saudi authorities announced that all undocumented Yemenis who had been in Saudi Arabia before April 9 would be eligible for a six-month renewable visa enabling them to work and live legally in Saudi Arabia. Deportations of nationals of other countries are unaffected. Saudi Arabia should not resume deportations of Yemenis – or deport nationals of other countries– until it is able to carry out deportations in a manner that respects people’s rights, Human Rights Watch said.

None of the workers interviewed were allowed to challenge their deportations or apply for asylum. Saudi Arabia has not established an asylum system under which migrants could prevent their forced return to places where their lives or freedom would be threatened.

On November 4, 2013, the first day of the Islamic New Year, Saudi police and labor authorities began the nationwide campaign to locate, detain, and deport undocumented migrant workers. This followed an April 2013 amendment to the labor law that allowed police and labor authorities to enforce labor code provisions against undocumented workers, including detaining and deporting anyone not working for a designated employer.

The campaign has consisted of raids on neighborhoods and businesses and ID checks at checkpoints. It resulted in the detention of 20,000 workers in the first two days alone, and has continued in phases ever since. In April 2014, Interior Ministry officials confirmed that they had deported 427,000 undocumented foreigners over the previous six months. On December 14, 2014, the Saudi newspaper Arab News reported that Saudi Arabia had detained 108,345 migrant workers across the country and deported 90,450 of them over the previous 40 days.

Saudi authorities announced a new round of detentions and deportations of undocumented foreigners during the first quarter of 2015, and said on March 23 that Saudi Arabia had deported 300,000 people over the previous five months, an average of nearly 2,000 a day.

Most of the deported migrant workers Human Rights Watch interviewed in northern Yemen and in Mogadishu said they had entered Saudi Arabia by crossing the border from Yemen. However, some had become undocumented when they fled abusive employment situations in Saudi Arabia and sought alternative work. Under Saudi Arabia’s kafala – or sponsorship – system, most migrant workers are not allowed to change jobs or leave the country without their employer’s agreement. This leaves them vulnerable to exploitation and abuse.

The migrant workers described serious abuses during detention in Saudi Arabia and deportation, including attacks by security forces and private citizens, inadequate detention conditions, and physical and other abuse in detention.

The campaign precipitated a wave of unrest in urban areas populated by undocumented workers, triggering violent attacks on migrants by Saudi police and private citizens, especially during November 2013. The most violent attacks occurred on the evening of November 9 in areas around the Manfouha neighborhood of southern Riyadh, where the majority of residents are Ethiopians. Manfouha residents told Human Rights Watch that at least three Ethiopian workers were killed.

Migrants said they had inadequate food and sanitation in detention and some said that guards beat them. “When they started deporting people I was working as a day laborer in Jeddah,” one deported Yemeni said. “I was afraid because of the deportation campaign and turned myself in to go back. They kept me in Buraiman Prison for 15 days. Sometimes they brought food but it was very little and people fought over it. There was no medical care. Sometimes they slapped us with belts.”

Another Yemeni deported in November 2013 after police caught him working illegally in the southern Saudi town of Jizan said he spent one night in a deportation center before Saudi officials sent him back to Yemen by bus through the al-Tuwal border crossing. “The jail conditions were bad,” he said. “There are no clean bathrooms and no separation barrier so we could see others using the toilet. They took the batteries from our phones and our SIM cards, but some people refused to give them over and the guards beat them with cables.”

Saudi Arabia should immediately halt mass expulsions, and ensure that any future deportations, are based on an individual assessment of the circumstances of the person being removed, including any international protection needs, Human Rights Watch said. Saudi Arabia should also change its labor rules to prevent thousands of workers from becoming undocumented and, most important, let workers change jobs if they face abuses. Saudi Arabia should also abolish the exit visa requirement to obtain permission from the employer to leave the country.

The Saudi government should sign and ratify the Refugee Convention, enact refugee law consistent with international standards, and establish fair asylum procedures for foreign nationals who may be at risk of persecution in their home countries, Human Rights Watch said. In the meantime, it should allow the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to exercise its mandate to determine the refugee status of asylum seekers and facilitate durable solutions for those recognized as refugees, including, where appropriate, integration in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi government has legitimate authority to deport undocumented migrants. But it must comply with international law, which requires treating migrants with dignity at all times and not returning anyone who would face a real risk of serious abuse on return. Saudi Arabia should give migrants who might fear persecution upon return the opportunity to lodge asylum claims, and consider any other protection needs, Human Rights Watch said.

“In seeking to enforce its labor laws, Saudi Arabia needs to be aware that these same laws sometimes encourage abuses that lead workers to become undocumented,” Whitson said. “Saudi Arabia will never solve the problem of informal work until it fixes its labor system to root out long-term systemic abuses.”

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The story of the run-up to the Global Crisis is, unfortunately, not an entirely new one. This column argues that regulators would do well to read up on the ‘Panic of 1907’. What quelled rumours and panicky behaviour back then still applies – maintaining market liquidity through measures that encourage transparency.

By Caroline Fohlin, Thomas Gehrig and Marlene Haas*

Opacity may be a major source of market freezes. This phenomenon arose in dramatic fashion in the 2007-8 Global Financial Crisis, when interbank markets suddenly froze, causing a major withdrawal of global liquidity.

Much of the post-Crisis concern from policymakers was focused on both financial instruments that were frequently labelled ‘complex’ and ‘exotic’ and on trading that took place in opaque markets and institutions, outside the purview of regulatory bodies (otherwise known as the ‘shadow banking system’, see Gorton and Metrick 2012). Fundamentally, market participants could not fully assess the value of these assets or the risks to their valuations.

The Panic of 1907 and the Global Crisis

Interestingly, it turns out that most of the component parts of this most recent episode are not new. Indeed, the Panic of 1907 in the US displays many parallels with the 2007-8 Crisis, despite the fact that the institutional environment was quite different: financial markets in 1907 were yet to be regulated by the federal government; the Federal Reserve System was only founded in 1913; and statutory regulation of stock trading and corporate reporting came even later. The world of 1907 was largely characterised by spontaneous actions, private initiative and self-regulation.

This all begs the question of whether early markets were more or less resilient with respect to economic or financial crises.

Since the Panic of 1907 has been characterised in the literature as a financial crisis driven purely by rumours rather than fundamentals (Moen and Tallman 1990, Frydman et al. 2015), it lends itself perfectly to a rigorous analysis of the role of information costs. While many previous studies have examined the Panic at the aggregate level, we are able to offer a much more nuanced ‘microstructure’ view of the unfolding crisis by exploiting a new database for all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange from 1905 through to 1910. For every trading day during this six-year period, we hand-collected opening, closing, high and low transactions prices, market-makers’ closing bid and ask quotations, and total trading volumes for all stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange as well as from its primary competitor, the Consolidated Exchange.¹ We compute several measures of liquidity and then, using a methodology developed by Huang and Stoll (1997) and refined by Gehrig and Haas (2014), we decompose bid-ask spreads into their main transaction cost components: information costs (or adverse selection costs), inventory holding costs, and operating costs (cum market power).  Our results demonstrate the crucial role of information opacity in turning a relatively minor hiccup into a market-wide liquidity freeze.

Development of the 1907 Panic

The Panic of 1907 began on 16 October 1907 with the failure of the brokerage firm of Otto Heinze. Heinze’s brokerage house was forced to close when he attempted to corner shares of the United Copper Company and pull a classic short squeeze. The manipulations caused wild swings in the price of United Copper, but the price ultimately plummeted and forced Otto into financial ruin. United Copper was partly owned by Otto’s brother, the notorious copper magnate, FA Augustus Heinze, and was traded in an ‘on the curb’ market, not on the New York Stock Exchange. The Heinze failure set off rumours that certain financial institutions had financed the failed short squeeze and therefore held unpayable debts from Otto Heinze. Much of the lending among these New York City banks rested on the collateral of securities.   Thus, with the stock market already several months into a decline (see Figure 1), and the fear of margin calls, the market was particularly vulnerable to a run. As the graph of stock prices shows, mining sector stocks were particularly volatile and most hit by the falling prices in the run-up to the crisis.

Figure 1. Average daily stock prices, 1905-1910

It is interesting to track in more detail the progression of the rumours through the financial system, as it underscores how little it takes to cause a big problem. In this case, Augustus Heinze was the key link in the rumour chain. He had moved – just a few months prior – to Manhattan and taken an active interest in banking and finance. He became president of the Mercantile Bank and took on directorships at several other banks and trust companies. Thus, as rumours spread about counterparties to his brother Otto’s brokerage firm, depositors ran on Mercantile National and on the trust companies with known ties to Heinze – first and foremost, the Knickerbocker Trust Company, with $69 million in assets (Tallman and Moen 1990). After the closure of the Knickerbocker Trust Company on Tuesday 22 October, depositors rapidly began withdrawing from other trust companies. In an era in which investors learned price information by traveling to or phoning their brokers – who, in turn, relied on a stream of information printed onto ticker tape arriving via telegraph – the only way to learn news in real time was to appear in person. Given that disclosure requirements and transparency were low, traders faced a continual threat of informational contagion.

Figure 2 (above) reproduces the now-famous photograph in Harper’s Weekly following the peak of the panic, and gives an impression of what that ‘price discovery’ process looked like.

Information as the driver of illiquidity

Clearly, information asymmetry sets the stage for panic, and we can observe the fallout in measures of market liquidity. We find that daily relative quoted spreads increased six-fold over the peak of the crisis, and rose significantly in advance of the most acute period of crisis – starting already by September 1907. The heightened illiquidity lasted until March 1908, several months after the crisis ended. At the same time, trading volume declined steadily and remained depressed well into 1908.

Figure 3. Daily cross-sectional median relative effective spreads, 1905-1910

Moreover, we find that transaction costs increased more for smaller and less liquid stocks and for companies in the more opaque market segments (e.g. mining and manufacturing).  Illiquidity also disproportionately hit the so-called ‘unlisted department’ of the New York Stock Exchange. As part of its strategy vis-à-vis its main competitor – the Consolidated – the New York Stock Exchange had formed this ‘department’ to allow trading in the stocks of smaller or riskier firms that did not meet the Stock Exchange’s stringent listing requirements or that did not want to go through the vetting process involved in listing and preferred instead to keep their accounting data private. As we expect, these unlisted stocks generally suffered more from higher informational costs, and these information costs were especially elevated when rumours were most active in the last quarter of 1907. It also took longer for adverse selection risk to decrease in unlisted stocks compared to listed stocks. This implies that investments in listed companies that had to publish accounting information indeed served as a hedge against adverse selection risk and especially so in times of heightened uncertainty.

The decomposition of spreads into their adverse selection, inventory holding and order processing components establishes that all three of them played a significant role in increasing market illiquidity during the Panic. Arguably, however, adverse selection costs were the largest component, which is of little surprise given the informationally more opaque environment in the early 20th century.

Since liquidity has been established as a priced factor in stock returns (Acharya and Pedersen 2005), we extend their work and ask whether the components of liquidity costs themselves are also priced in the market. Indeed, our asset-pricing analysis verifies that each factor of our bid-ask decomposition was independently priced, and hence carried a corresponding (illiquidity) premium already in the early markets. Hence, not surprisingly, liquidity concerns always have constituted fundamental characteristics of securities markets.

The upshot of the Panic of 1907

The Panic of 1907 marked the beginning of the end of unregulated capital markets and weak central monetary authority in the US. While private initiatives – the concerted effort organised by John Pierpont Morgan – ultimately resolved the crisis, it provided central banking advocates the ammunition they needed to push through the Federal Reserve Act, and in the meantime the provision of emergency currency via the Aldrich-Vreeland Act (which would come into play in the summer of 1914). The episode prompted the famous Money Trust hearings in Congress that led to the Clayton Antitrust Act, as well as a state-level investigation in New York that ultimately led to the disbanding of the NYSE’s ’unlisted’ department. These regulatory steps laid the foundation for the more far-reaching interventions as the US Securities and Exchange Commission that emerged much later.

This long-ago episode elucidates how opaque markets and institutions allow rumours to cause runs and can freeze liquidity in short order. Our microstructure analysis of this historical crisis reminds us of three fundamental points:

• Transparency is the lynchpin of properly functioning markets;
• Liquidity is the measure of a market’s health status;
• Illiquidity in one minor market segment – however minor — can readily infect other, if not all, market segments.

Policy should focus on maintaining market liquidity through measures that encourage transparency.

*About the authors:
Caroline Fohlin
Research Professor in the Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University

Thomas Gehrig
Department of Finance, University of Vienna

Marlene Haas
PhD candidate, Vienna Graduate School of Finance

References:
Acharya, V and L Pedersen (2005), “Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk”, Journal of Financial Economics 77(2): 375-410.

Fohlin, C (2014), “A New Database of Transactions and Quotes in the NYSE, 1900-25 with Linkage to CRSP”, JHU mimeo.

Fohlin, C, T Gehrig, and M Haas (2015), “Rumors and Runs in Opaque Markets: Evidence from the Panic of 1907”, CEPR Discussion Paper 10497, London.

Frydman, C, E Hilt and L Y Zhou (2015), “Economic Effects of Runs on Early ‘Shadow Banks': Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907”, Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming.

Gehrig, T, C Fohlin (2006), “Trading Costs in Early Securities Markets: The Case of the Berlin Stock Exchange 1880-1910″, Review of Finance 10: 585-610.

Gehrig, T and M Haas (2014), “Lehman Brothers: Did Markets Know?”, ECGI-DP, 424/2014, Brussels.

Gorton, G and A Metrick (2012), “Securitized banking and the run on repo”, Journal of Financial Economics 104(3): 425-451.

Huang, R and H Stoll (1997), “The Components of the Bid-ask Spread: A General Approach”, Review of Financial Studies 10(4): 995-1034.

Tallman, E W and J R Moen (1990), “Lessons from the Panic of 1907”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review.

Footnotes:
1. See Fohlin (2014) for more detail on the larger data collection project.

The post Rumors And Runs In Opaque Markets: Evidence From The Panic Of 1907 – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Wilson John*

It is not the first time that the Pakistan army has accused the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), India’s external intelligence agency, of fomenting trouble in Pakistan.

Propaganda against India and its security forces have a staple ingredient of the Pakistan army’s proxy war against India for over three decades now. What is, however, different this time is the timing and the possible reasons for such an outburst.

The central premise of the allegations is that R&AW is behind much of the terrorist attacks taking place in Pakistan, especially those happening in Balochistan and the tribal areas.

These allegations have since been magnified many times over by the ISI’s media wing through a clever media management strategy exploiting all available media platforms.

It is obvious that the Pakistan army is up to no good. India should be cautious of what lies behind this seemingly sudden provocation. Of the several reasons for this mudslinging at India, the following are noteworthy and are being listed in order of importance:

Propaganda has been an important tool in Pakistan’s asymmetric warfare against India.

The Pakistan army prepares the ground for a major attack against India and its assets by raising the pitch of allegations to whip up public support at home, to create a cloak of denial as well a perverse justification for any such acts. This has been the case in the past, including the Mumbai attacks of 2008.

Part of this plan is to revive terrorism in Kashmir. All the anti-India groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammad, the Hizb-ul Mujahideen and others have been activated with terrorist camps and launching pads in place. Recent events in the Kashmir valley show that a season of protests and violence is on. Sporadic attacks against the security forces and the Amarnath pilgrimage are on this agenda.

This is a clever ploy to spoil Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to China by creating a distraction, thereby steering the agenda of discussions to issues where both New Delhi and Beijing have a starkly different position.

For instance, the increasing Chinese presence in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and the possibility of a larger Chinese presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Chinese could very well be on board with the Pakistani plan.

This in preparation for a major military offensive against the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) in Karachi and elsewhere in Sindh. There is already a major operation going against the Baloch people in which innocent men, women and children have been targeted.

The MQM, a party of mohajirs (those who came from India after Partition), has been a sore point with the army as well as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N.

In fact, Sharif, in collaboration with the ISI, had earlier engineered a split within the MQM and carried out a brutal suppression of the Altaf Hussain faction. The MQM recently has been questioning the army’s role in curbing terrorism, a stand which has the made it an enemy in the eyes of the generals.

Along with the MQM, the army wants to put down another rebellion happening elsewhere in Sindh. For a few years, the army has been quietly quelling a slow but steady rise of dissent among Sindhi youth.

Like in Balochistan, the army has adopted the brutal ‘kill and dump’ policy. Several Sindhi young men, mostly from the University of Sindh, have been kidnapped by the ISI and their whereabouts have remained unknown since then.

The Pakistan Human Rights Commission and other human rights organisations have documented these disappearances.

This is undoubtedly a move to scuttle any possible rapprochement with India.

It is no less important for the Pakistan army that such allegations distract and mislead public attention from the army’s colossal failure to contain terrorist groups which it promised to pursue till the end after the December 2014 Peshawar attack.

For all the allegations, the Pakistan army has not come out with any convincing evidence of India’s role in Balochistan or elsewhere. The Pakistan leadership have been raising these allegations with their patrons in Washington, DC and Beijing for some time and reported to have passed on several files of evidence against India.

It is strange that the media-savvy Pakistan army has chosen to keep this a tightly-held secret which, in fact, should have been other way round.

In 2009, the Pakistan army had chosen to go public with similar allegations against India and had held a press conference to make the evidence public. Incriminating photographs of Indian-made ammunition used by Baloch rebels were handed over to the media with details of the connivance.

The Pakistani media splashed it with abandoned glee only to be proved wrong by a blogger within hours. The blogger established that the ammunition shown by the Pakistan army to be of Indian-origin was in fact Chinese-made.

The blog (external link) carried the same photographs released by the Pakistan army but with cut-outs showing Chinese inscriptions. That put an end to the Pakistani campaign.

*The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi

Courtesy: Rediff.com, May 8, 2015

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Few are able to bridge Egypt’s deeply polarizing divide between supporters and opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood following the 2013 military coup that toppled President Mohammed Morsi. Mohammed Aboutreika, Egypt’s most celebrated and storied soccer player, is proving to be either the exception that proves the rule or an indication of shifting attitudes amid an uproar after authorities froze his company assets on suspicion of funding the Brotherhood.

Breaking the mould was always part of Mr. Aboutreika’s trademark. He was revered for having been declared African footballer of the year four times and having been instrumental in securing storied Cairo club Al Ahli SC’s multiple African and Egyptian titles as well as many of the Egyptian national team’s trophies despite controversy over his refusal to hide his Islamist and pro-Palestinian inclinations and support for Ultras Ahlawy, the militant, highly politicized Al Ahli support group that played a key role in the 2011 popular uprising and subsequent anti-government protests.

The outpouring of support following the freezing of the assets of a travel agency that he owns demonstrates not only Mr. Aboutreika’s continued popularity since his retirement in 2013 but also his ability to rise above Egypt’s deep-seated fault lines. Among those who spoke out in favour of Mr. Aboutreika were many of his fellow players, a group that has historically been careful to remain on the political side lines and was glaringly absent during the popular revolt that toppled President Mohammed Mubarak in 2011 and the mass protests that led to the overthrow of Mr. Morsi in 2013.

Soccer players, who were feted by autocratic leaders and managers appointed by their regimes, long seemed the epitome of American-Palestinian scholar Hisham Sharabi’s notion of neo-patriarchism, which he developed in a controversial 1992 book that is still banned in many Arab countries.

Mr. Sharabi argued that Arab society was built on the dominance of the Father (patriarch around which the national as well as the nuclear family were organized. Between ruler and ruled, between father and child, there existed only vertical relations: in both settings the paternal will was absolute, mediated in both the society and the family by a forced consensus based on ritual and coercion.

In other words, according to Mr. Sharabi, Arab regimes franchised repression so that in a culturally patrimonial society, the oppressed participated in their repression and denial of rights. The regime’s leader was in effect the father of all fathers at the top of the pyramid.

The identification of the deposed leaders of Egypt, Yemen and Libya – Hosni Mubarak, Abdullah Ali Saleh and Moammar Qaddafi – as well as Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and some of those that have succeeded them with their country’s national soccer teams turned their successes and failures into barometers of how their regimes were faring.

They also turned celebrated soccer players and managers into regime supporters who saw the autocrat as their father figure. Egyptian players, Mr. Aboutreika who endorsed Mr. Morsi’s presidential candidacy and Al Ahli striker Ahmed Abdel Zaher excluded, were no exception. Mr. Abdel Zaher was sanctioned in November 2013 after he showed the four-finger sign raised by opponents of the coup in memory of the hundreds who were killed three months earlier when security forces broke up a Brotherhood sit-in on Cairo’s Rabaa Al-Adawiya Square.

Response to the freezing of the assets in Asshab Tours by the committee tasked with confiscating property of the Brotherhood that has been designated as a terrorist organization and the arrest of the company’s director on suspicion of having funded violent attacks broke the Sharabi mould. The freezing galvanized the soccer community in a country in which football is a national craze.

Asshab Tours was one of eight travel companies targeted by the committee. Pro-government media asserted that Mr. Aboutreika had established Asshab Tours in 2013 with the explicit purpose of funding the Brotherhood. The freezing followed repeated attacks on Mr. Aboutreika by pro-government sports journalists that focused on his alleged links to the Brotherhood.

Mr. Aboutreika set off the uproar on social media by tweeting that “money comes to our hands, not our hearts. You can seize whatever funds you want, but I will never leave Egypt.” Amid a multitude of pro-Aboutreika hashtags, Egyptian blogger Zeinobia noted that pro-government tweeters had countered with a hashtag identifying Aboutreika as a Brotherhood sheep.

In response to the attacks, former Ahli player Sayed Muawad wrote on Twitter: “I love you for the sake of Allah.” Egyptian national team director Ahmed Hassan added that “apart from personal, political loyalty, I will continue to bear witness that this person upholds the highest moral standards until the end of my life” and Wadi Degla player Ahmed al-Mirghani warned that “freezing Treika’s funds is catastrophic.”

Al Zamalek Omar Gaber midfielder declared, “I’m so proud to have played with a legend such as yourself” in the Egyptian national squad. National team and Al Ahli goalkeeper Sherif Ekramy chimed in saying that “no one can doubt his national loyalty as well as his humane treatment of others. His money and sources of his income are an open book for all. Your place in Egyptian hearts is enough.”

Mr. Aboutreika’s popularity is as much a result of his soccer feats, including last-minute goals, as of his willingness to speak out on issues that stirred national emotions such as the publication in Europe of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed that many in the Muslim world deemed disrespectful and blasphemy or the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of the Gaza Strip.

“We sacrifice our lives for you, Muhammad,” read Mr. Aboutreika’s T-shirt which he bared on the pitch after taking off his jersey off during the cartoon crisis. “Sympathize with Gaza,” was Mr. Aboutreika’s message when he did the same in support of the Palestinians.

Mr. Aboutreika was outspoken in his support for Ultras Ahlawy after 74 of its members were killed in 2012 in a politically-loaded soccer brawl in Port Said in which many believe that the military and security forces acquiesced in a bid to teach militant soccer fans a lesson.

Mr. Aboutreika refused at the time to shake the hand of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the then head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that governed the country during the transition from Mr. Mubarak to Mr. Morsi’s election. “I was unhappy with the country’s situation,” Mr. Aboutreika said.

The post Aboutreika: Bridging Egyptian Polarization Or Signalling A Shift In Attitudes? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Graham Land

There are eight species of pangolin — four in Asia and four in Africa. All Asian pangolin species are either critically endangered or endangered, while their African counterparts are classified as vulnerable. While trade in all eight species is outlawed by international treaty, public consciousness is not in the fight against trafficking, which is quickly leading to the pangolin’s demise.

The numbers are astounding. By the most conservative estimates, 10,000 pangolins are trafficked illegally each year. If you assume only 10% to 20% of the actual trade is reported by the news media, the true number trafficked over a two-year period was 116,990 to 233,980, according to Annamiticus, an advocacy group. (via CNN)

Why are these shy, solitary mammals the most hunted creatures on the planet?

Like many illegally trafficked animals, pangolin body parts are used in traditional medicine and cuisine. In Indonesia, a single pangolin can fetch around US$45-60.

It is the pangolin’s scales that are in demand. TCM (Traditional Chinese Medicine) holds that when dried and roasted, the scales can cure palsy, drain pus and stimulate lactation. Yet as with most “cures” involving the body parts of exotic animals, there is absolutely no basis to these beliefs. Pangolin scales are nothing more than keratin, the same material in human fingernails — just like rhino horn. Pangolin blood is also considered a healing elixir in China and Vietnam.

The pangolin scales are useful for one thing: protecting pangolins. It’s the main way they guard against attacks by big cats and other predators. They simply roll up into a ball and let their thick scales do the rest. If that isn’t enough, they can also emit a horrible smelling acid, comparable to the stink from a skunk. Humans, on the other hand, are not so easy to deter, especially if there is money to be made.

Why have so many people never even heard of a pangolin?

Pangolins do poorly in captivity. They get stressed out, depressed and tend to die early. Because of this, we know little about the length of their natural lifespans (in fact, even pangolin experts know little about the mysterious scaled mammal). It also makes them poor zoo attractions. That said, they are pretty cool looking, though they lack the excitement of tigers or pandas, and that is probably why pangolin conservation groups receive so little money, whether from the government of private donors. You can’t make tourist dollars with pangolin parks.

Pangolin conservation requires knowledge and awareness

Despite the lack of awareness and glamor, there are efforts to save the pangolin. Among these are initiatives in Indonesia to prosecute traffickers, destroy seized pangolin meat and scales, as well as release live pangolins that have been recovered from traffickers.

Perhaps some day we will come to love the pangolin, but it would be more effective if people stopped believing in mumbo jumbo TCM cures, which can hurt the patients almost as much as the animals whose bodies they use as medicine.

The post Pangolins Could Be Gone Before The World Even Knows They Exist – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Alvaro de Juana

Following a private meeting at the Vatican with Pope Francis, who has helped to broker improved relations between Cuba and the United States, the president of the Caribbean nation suggested he could return to the Church in the future.

“I will start praying again and return to the Church” if the Pope continues what he has been doing, Raul Castro said on Sunday.

Castro is president of Cuba and the younger brother of Fidel, the leader of Cuba’s communist revolution. He spoke to the press a few hours after his meeting with Pope Francis.

The Cuban leader also said he was impressed with the Pope’s “wisdom and modesty,” adding that he reads all of his speeches.

The May 10 meeting was the first between the two leaders, ahead of Pope Francis’ upcoming visit to the island nation.

According to a statement released by the Holy See press office after the meeting, Castro “wished to say ‘Thank you’ to the Holy Father for his active role in the development of the improvement of relations between Cuba and the United States of America.”

Castro also “presented the sentiments of the Cuban people to the Pope as they await in preparation for the coming visit to the island in the month of September,” the statement reads.

While the Vatican qualified today’s visit as a “strictly private”, the Holy See press office released some details of the meeting in a statement shortly afterward.

Castro arrived at the Vatican at 9:30am from Russia, where he had participated in a commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Europe.

The two leaders met for about 50 minutes and spoke of the Pope’s work in bettering relations between Cuba and the United States. They also spoke of the Roman Pontiff’s upcoming visit of Cuba ahead of his week-long trip to the United States, which will include the World Meeting of Families in Philadelphia, and the canonization of Blessed Junipero Serra in Washington, DC.

The Vatican announced Pope Francis’ September trip to Cuba on April 22.

Castro was accompanied by a 10-person delegation, including the president of Cuba’s Council of Ministers, his exterior minister, and the Cuban ambassador to the Holy See.

As is customary, the Pope and the president exchanged gifts. Castro gave Pope Francis a silver medal commemorating the 200 years since the Cathedral of Havana was built. It is one of only 25 of the medals in existence.

Castro also gave the Pope a work of contemporary art by the Cuban artist Kcho, who was part of the delegation. The piece is a large cross composed of pieces from shipwrecked boats, with the image of an immigrant praying in front of it.

Kcho explained to the Pope that the work “was inspired by his commitment to calling the world’s attention to the problems of migrants and those who are forced to flee their homes, starting with his famous trip to Lampedusa” in July 2013.

In return, Pope Francis gave Castro a copy of his apostolic exhortation Evangelii Gaudium and a large medallion which shows St. Martin of Tours sharing his cloak with a poor person.

He told Castro the gift “is an intuition of that which we must do: cover the misery of our people and then promote the people.”

The Holy Father added that he “wanted to give it to him because it is a sign of goodwill.”

After the audience with Pope Francis, Castro met with the Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, after which he spoke to the press about the meeting.

Last December, Castro and U.S. President Barack Obama announced to the world that they would be taking steps to normalize their diplomatic relations, and surprised many in thanking and praising the work of Pope Francis.

Castro had also met with Benedict XVI on March 27, 2012 during his trip to the Caribbean nation, and St. John Paul II was the first Pope to receive then-Cuban president Fidel Castro in 1996. Two years later, he made his own historic visit to Cuba.

The post Cuba’s Raul Castro Considering Returning To Catholic Church appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Some of the worst nights of my life have taken place in early May — Margaret Thatcher’s first election victory on May 3, 1979 (when I was too young to even vote), and the 2010 election, on May 6, 2010, which brought a Tory-led coalition government, led by David Cameron, to power.

There were other dreadful nights, on or around May — the Tory victories on June 9, 1983, June 11, 1987 and April 9, 1992 — and after the anti-Tory euphoria of Tony Blair’s victory wore off, following New Labour’s landslide victory on May 1, 1997, the reality of a New Labour Britain was of course a huge disappointment, as the party embarked on its own neo-liberal trajectory, and the country became host to a housing price casino that was a poor substitute for an actual functioning economy — and, in 2003, also became the home of an illegal warmonger.

As a result, the rest of New Labour’s victories — on June 7, 2001 and May 5, 2005 — were also disappointing, as the party failed to remember what it was supposed to be, and continued, instead, as a general betrayer of its founding values. On those occasions, however, the disappointment in a Labour victory was, pragmatically, offset by slim gratitude that at least the Tories weren’t back in.

All that changed in 2010. With the Labour government discredited, in the eyes of a majority of the voting public, as a result of the global financial crash of 2008 (even though the Tories were also 100% in bed with the bankers, and most people seemed to have been delighted with New Labour’s housing bubble), the Tories emerged as the largest party, although David Cameron’s efforts to sell himself as a charismatic leader fell short of his expectations. An unholy alliance with the Liberal Democrats was then required for the Tories to embark on their horrible assault on the British state, and on everyone not fortunate enough to be rich, that they have imposed ever since, and that they will now be hoping to inflict on us for the next five years.

Tory crimes

That is a truly chilling thought, as Cameron and Osborne’s Tories have, over the last five years, proven that they have only three reasons for existing: to enable the rich to get richer, to privatise almost everything that has not yet been privatised, and, while undertaking this butchery — which involves a monstrous belief in the need to destroy almost all state provision of services, including the NHS, the single greatest institution in the UK — to make life as miserable as possible for all vulnerable members of society; in particular, the working poor, the unemployed, and the disabled. See my extensive archive of articles, under the heading, “Battle for Britain: Fighting the Coalition Government’s Vile Ideology.”

Among the Tories’ many disgraceful policies — notwithstanding the fact that some were inherited from Labour, but have been more aggressively pursued — are reviews for the disabled, designed to find people with severe mental and physical health problems fit for work when they are not (and there are no jobs anyway), and to subsequently cut their benefits, the enthusiastic promotion of zero hours contracts, and the implementation of a range of workfare schemes, designed to make the unemployed work for hourly rates that are way below the minimum wage.

Another horrible innovation has been the benefit cap, which has imposed restrictions on the amount of housing benefit that can be claimed by those without work, portraying them as scroungers when most of the money goes to private landlords and not, of course, the claimants themselves.

Also noteworthy is the bedroom tax, whereby a cabinet of millionaires forced unemployed people to move out of their homes if they dared to have what was regarded as a spare room, even though it is fundamentally offensive to decide that poorer people are not entitled to regard their homes as homes, or to have the luxury of any spare space whatsoever, and even though there are few smaller properties for them to move to, and it has ended up costing more than before while making life miserable for vast numbers of people.

The Tories also attacked students, tripling tuition fees, and undermined state schools, and they have presided over an even more bloated and ridiculous house price casino than existed under New Labour. London is now the global capital for super-rich dictators and criminals, who drive up house prices while contributing almost nothing to the wider economy, as they are protected from fair taxation through the vile and unjustifiable allowances for “non-doms” to be parasites in the UK, by pretending to live somewhere else. All the while, the gap between the rich and the poor has continued to grow to monstrous levels.

Winners and losers

The Lib Dems, it turned out, committed political suicide through their coalition with the Tories, losing 49 of their 57 seats on Thursday, but, depressingly — almost incomprehensibly — the Tories were not only unpunished at the ballot box; they actually secured enough seats to form a government on their own.

The other winners in the election were the Scottish National Party (SNP), who conquered Scotland, securing 56 of the 59 Scottish seats, up from just six in 2010. This was a disaster for Scottish Labour, of course, and while it was punishment for their disdainful approach to those seeking independence, I personally think that what drove the landslide even more was Scottish voters’ perceived need to set themselves up in the clearest manner possible, not just as a declaration of their own identity, as a continuation of the national conversation that arose through last year’s referendum on independence,  but also, explicitly, in opposition to the power base in Westminster — the Tories. This could only be achieved by taking over from Labour, because the Tories, of course, have been in the electoral wilderness in Scotland since the Thatcher days.

The losers in this election were not primarily the Labour Party, whose share of the vote, and number of seats gained, actually increased slightly from 2010 — although it would be foolish not to acknowledge that Labour’s pledges, including supporting the NHS, scrapping the bedroom tax, and ending “non-dom” status, failed to convince numerous voters who, by voting Tory, actually voted to make life much more difficult for themselves.

The biggest losers, primarily, were other parties — and, as I noted in an article just before the election, entitled, “Time for Proportional Representation: Whatever the Outcome of the General Election, Our Voting System is Unfair and Unrepresentative” — the electoral process itself.

The biggest single group in the election were the 15,733,706 people who didn’t vote, far more than the 11,334,920 people who voted for the Tories. Nevertheless, the Tories secured a majority of the seats (50.9%) even though they had just 36.8% of the vote, and the support of just 24.4% of those eligible to vote. On the other extreme, UKIP got just one seat even though they secured 3,881,129 votes, meaning that it was 113 times harder for them to get a seat than it was for the Tories.

A broken and unjust system

Here’s a more detailed breakdown of why the current system is so broken and unjust:

11,334,920 people voted for the Tories, which was 36.8% of the voter turnout (30,691,680), but just 24.4% of the total number of people eligible to vote (46,425,386).

In addition, the distribution of seats per vote was also unfair. With their 36.8% of the vote, the Tories nevertheless secured 50.9% of the seats. Each of their 331 seats, therefore, required 34,244 votes.

Another party that benefitted from the uneven distribution of votes under the “first past the post” system was Labour, who received 9,344,328 votes. That was 30.4% of the voter turnout, and enabled them to secure 232 seats (35.7% of the total). Each of their seats, therefore, required 40,277 votes.

Also benefitting was the Scottish National Party, whose 1,454,436 votes represented 4.7% of the voter turnout. In terms of seats, however, the SNP’s 56 seats constituted 8.6% of the total. Each of their seats required just 25,972 votes.

The losers in this unequal carve-up of the British people and their intentions were, primarily, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the Green Party.

The Liberal Democrats, although electorally almost wiped out, still managed to secure 2,415,888 votes (7.9% of the total), which translated into 8 seats (just 1.2% of the total). Each of their seats, therefore, required 301,986 votes.

UKIP secured 3,881,129 votes (12.6% of the total), but this translated into just one seat (0.2% of the total), and the Green Party secured 1,154,562 votes (3.8% of the total), which also translated into just one seat (0.2% of the total).

Under proportional representation, the 30,691,680 votes cast, divided by 650 seats,  would have translated into 47,218 votes per MP, with the following breakdown (which would be fair, even though I despise UKIP):

Con: 240 instead of 331
Lab: 198 instead of 232
Lib Dem: 51 instead of 8
SNP: 31 instead of 56
UKIP: 82 instead of 1
Green: 24 instead of 1

Call for electoral reform

If you find this situation unacceptable, please sign the Avaaz petition, “Democratic Deficit,” which calls on MPs to undertake an urgent review of the electoral system.

As they state:

The first past the post system is designed for two-party politics. But that’s just not on our landscape any more. Over 1 million voted for the Green Party and got just one seat and whether you agree with them or not, UKIP also suffered from this yawning democratic deficit.

With 1 in 3 people not bothering to vote, we need to reconnect politics back to the people. Let’s end the era of ‘wasted votes’ and create a system where every voice in Britain matters. Let’s call on all our MPs to fight for an electoral review as soon as parliament reconvenes.

Still unconvinced? How about this then for my parting shot?

Can it be fair that, with 11,334,920 votes, the Tories are running the country, with 331 seats, while the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and UKIP, with 7,451,479 votes, got just ten seats between them?

The answer has to be no.

The post UK Election: Tory Victory Disaster For People Of Britain And Democratic Process – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Marika Sosnowski for Syria Comment*

In 2015, the UN has requested a staggering US$8.4 billion to help 18 million people within Syria and the immediate region. This is a huge sum and the largest humanitarian appeal in UN history. Five years in to the brutal civil war, the humanitarian response to the Syrian crisis has predominantly focused on providing immediate relief in the form of food, health and sanitation. However, the complex and extended nature of the Syrian conflict now means that humanitarian actors are grappling with the medium to long-term issues the conflict has caused for Syria and its neighbours. These challenges include civil society development and increasing the rule of law within liberated Syrian communities, providing children with access to education as a normalising measure and an increased focus on livelihoods and creating economic opportunities in refugee populations.

At a meeting of donor countries in Berlin in December 2014, the UN announced the Strategic Response Plan for Syria that ‘incorporates, for the first time, significant development aspects’ in addition to addressing essential humanitarian needs (my italics). The Strategic Response Plan shows that the situation in Syria is no longer all about immediate disaster relief but has shifted to also include resilience and development aspects. As the term suggests, rather than addressing immediate needs, the aim of resilience and development programs is to act as a crucial bulwark against future instability and violence spawned by the Syrian conflict regionally and globally.

The medium to long-term advantages of resilience and development programming not only include regional stability but domestic benefits for national security and counter-terrorism. However, in order to be fully effective, donor requirements in the allocation of aid funding, particularly towards small Syrian NGOs, need to be rethought as well as supporting greater access for larger donors to hard-to-reach areas within Syria. These initiatives will hopefully provide more effective programming, value for money and ultimately, benefit people searching for some level of stability amongst the chaos.

Aid as a counter terrorism measure

A concern for most donor countries has been the threat posed by foreign fighters returning from the Syrian conflict or homegrown terror attacks inspired by the likes of ISIS. Given that many Western countries are now directly involved in military action against ISIS, an increasing number of foreign fighters may be likely to view their circumstances through the prism of a global war. This places countries in the military coalition at greater risk of blowback. Additionally, the dominant counter-terrorism response in many countries such as Australia, the US and France has so far been punitive and involved blanket prohibition and imprisonment of foreign fighters. For example, France recently jailed two underage boys who had returned voluntarily from Syria and Iraq after becoming disillusioned with IS and Australia has passed wide-ranging counter-terrorism legislation that includes imprisonment for entering areas of Iraq and Syria.

A recently published policy paper by the Brookings Institute suggests that instead of over-relying on punitive measures to combat terrorism, increasing funding and involvement in humanitarian programs that aim to help people affected by the conflict in Syria has the potential to deradicalise a significant portion of foreign fighters who were originally motivated, not by violence, but by a genuine desire to defend the Syrian people against the brutality of the Assad regime. Older research by AidData also suggests that foreign aid has the ability to decrease incidents of terrorism especially when the funding is targeted towards resilience and development sectors such as education, health, civil society and conflict prevention.

Agile and targeted aid

Syrian NGOs and local community organisations such as local councils are well placed to play a larger role in the delivery of these resilience and development programs given that they have direct access to many hard-to-reach areas and communities within Syria, local knowledge, language skills and are well connected with the ability to negotiate between different groups and areas. Unfortunately, the international community has so far been somewhat suspicious of supporting Syrian humanitarian organisations because many are considered unknown entities that cannot fulfil various funding and reporting requirements. These requirements include being in existence for more than five years (many were only created as a result of the uprising that began in 2011), being registered in Syria (there were various restrictions placed on the registration of civil society organisations under the al-Assad regime) or having undertaken a number of audits. While there are genuine donor concerns with monitoring and evaluating aid delivery – ISIS’ distribution of World Food Program marked packages early this year remains a very public example of failure – restrictions on funding Syrian organisations need to be rethought in light of the benefits they can offer.

Additionally, Security Council resolution 2191, and its two predecessors 2139 and 2165, succeeded in securing authorisation for UN agencies to use the most direct routes available for delivering relief inside Syria without the prior approval of the Assad regime. This includes through border crossings and across conflict lines. Thomas H. Staal, acting assistant administrator for USAID’s Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance said in a recent statement that, ‘this resolution [2191] has allowed us to access people in need in an average of 66 hard-to-reach areas each month.’ In practice, many issues remain. A recent multi-author report assessing the impact of the resolutions suggests that in order to be effective, influential countries must continue to press for the streamlining of administrative processes for aid agencies and maintain timely access through border crossings. However, the fact that they were passed by the Security Council at all does potentially mark an important shift in international humanitarian law with repercussions for humanitarian access going beyond the Syrian crisis.

Rethinking aid to Syria

Jordan and Lebanon have recognised the need for longer-term development and stabilisation initiatives to address the structural deficiencies and challenges to social, economic and environmental sustainability associated with the influx of large Syrian refugee numbers. However, the international community has generally been slow to recognise the ongoing and complex nature of the Syrian conflict and see that shifts in humanitarian response cannot be linear, from humanitarian to resilience to development, but rather need to consider and address all these elements in tandem. While some donor countries, such as the USA, UK, Denmark and Canada have begun to adopt this approach, other countries like Australia lag in this area.

Large and reputable humanitarian agencies like the UN, Oxfam, World Vision and Save the Children continue to play a significant role in the delivery of the humanitarian response to the Syrian quagmire. However, new thinking is also necessary in diversifying the allocation of aid money as well as supporting the implementation of SC resolution 2191 as ways to effectively access areas within Syria given the vast scale and rapidly changing nature of the conflict.

In uncertain times citizens crave even basic levels of stability. Sadly, there remains a very real need to continue life-saving essential support to millions within Syria and regionally. The additional focus of the international community and the UN on development and resilience initiatives inside Syria and for refugees can also hopefully contribute to increasing levels of stability and normalcy for the all too many people affected by this conflict.

*Marika Sosnowski – @MikiSosnowski – http://marikasosnowski.com/

The post The Evolving Humanitarian Response To Syrian Crisis – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dalga Khatinoglu*

During his visit to Germany Iran’s oil minister said that exporting gas through Turkey to the EU is not Iran’s priority.

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on May 7 that “gas prices were too low in Europe and transporting gas there from Iran faces legal obstacles and costly fees. For example, if Iran wanted to export gas to Europe, it would likely go through Turkey, where it could be subject to transit fees”.

During last month, as hopes for elimination of sanctions imposed on Iran have risen due to progress in the nuclear talks, estimations of joining Iranian gas to the Trans Anatolian Pipeline to be delivered to EU by Trans Adriatic pipeline were lauded.

Iran possesses 33.8 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, making it number one in the world, while the country wants to increase gas production from current 660 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) to about 1,100 mcm/d by 2019.

However, Zanganeh said, “Another option for Iran’s gas export to EU is liquefying it and exporting by ship. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the most suitable option to sell gas to Europe”, adding that this option won’t be available for another three years.

In the light of current nuclear negotiations aiming to reach a comprehensive deal by June 30 and pave the way for elimination of the sanctions, Iran and Germany want to take the lead in resuming economic ties.

May 6 Mehr News Agency reported that Zanganeh would discuss the ‘Iran LNG’ project with Germany’s Linde AG during his visit. The capital investment needed for the Iran LNG plant was estimated at $5 billion.

Linde AG had signed an agreement a decade ago to supply equipment to Iran for building a 10.5-million metric tons per year LNG production plant, but refused to keep the deal in 2010 due to the sanctions.

During Ahmadinejad’s first presidency term (2005-2009), Iran should have built LNG plants with 70 million tons of production capacity, but all of them were cancelled due to sanctions. The LNG project contracts were with French Total, Spanish Repsol, Dutch-British Shell, Malaysian Petronas, Chinese SINOPEC group, Chinese CEPA, Polish state-owned gas company (PGNiG) and Malaysian Petrofield LNG Co.

Why LNG?

Iran has a project to realize 1,860 km 9th cross-country pipeline with 110 mcm/d gas delivery capacity from South Pars gas field to Turkey’s border. The cost of this pipeline is estimated to be $6 billion. Last month, Iran proposed doubling gas export to Turkey, but Ankara rejected it. Iran currently sells 9.76 bcm/a of gas to Turkey.

Iran has another pipeline project worth $2 billion -more or less in the same direction- to transit 110 mcm/d gas from South Pars to Iraqi Kurdistan borders; an agreement with Iraq to deliver 25 mcm/d to Baghdad’s power plants; and is preparing a 35 mcm/d of gas delivery to Iraq’s Basra power plants, a region which is very close to South Pars.

Iran also has a deal with Oman and Pakistan to deliver 10 bcm/a of natural gas to each country. In the Oman deal, a 260 km under-water pipeline needs to be built, while the pipeline from South Pars to Pakistani borders has been mostly completed.

Therefore, it seems Iran is right to concentrate on regional markets, making delivery of gas to the EU Iran’s non-priority.

Building LNG plants is more attractive for Iran, firstly because transferring gas through pipelines is very expensive, secondly, because Iran can sell LNG by shipping it to wherever it wants, leaving Iran independent from signing long-term deals with restricted markets.

*Dalga Khatinoglu is an expert on Iran’s energy sector, head of Trend Agency’s Iran news service.

The post Exploring Iran’s LNG Option For Gas Export To EU – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Despite the White House’s boasting a few months ago that Yemen was an example of President Barack Obama’s successful leadership, Yemeni jihadists on Saturday gained control over a major city in the Southwestern Saudi Arabian province of Jizan. Senior Yemeni military sources said on Saturday that the country’s tribal fighters won control over the city of Ahad al-Masareha in Jizan after exchanging fire with the Saudi forces for only about 3 hours. The tribesmen have also captured more than 60 Saudi soldiers and police officers after taking control of that major city, the sources added.

According to a CNN report, Saudi missiles struck its neighbor, Yemen, on Friday into Saturday. The Saudi’s action was reported by the United Nations as being an overwhelming air force attack that appeared to be a breach of international law regarding warfare and war crimes.

The U.N. leveled accusations against the Saudis over their attack against Houthi (Shiite] rebels in Yemen. The Saudis conducted about 130 airstrikes within a 24-hour period and their targets included Yemeni schools and hospitals. However, according to a Saudi commander, Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri, the hospitals and schools that were targeted and destroyed were used as weapons storage sites.

Such practices are common with radicalized Muslims such as when the Palestinians used a United Nations facility in Gaza to hide rockets, missiles and other weaponry during last year’s conflict between Israeli soldiers, police and border guards and the terrorist groups Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Upon invading the Saudi city and driving out the Saudi military, the Yemeni invaders looted and plundered the city for what they said was their “share of the spoils.” The tribal forces also commandeered upwards of 20 U.S.-built Hummer vehicles, 17 armor-plated Jeeps, a huge number of arms and an even larger amount of ammunition in the operation.

Saudi Arabia began its air force’s bombing campaign against Yemen on March 26 in the hopes of restoring power to exiled Yemeni President Mansour Hadi, who is a staunch Sunni Muslim. Their enemies from Yemen are Shiite. Hadi had left Yemen and sought asylum in January and refused to reconsider the decision despite calls by revolutionaries of the Houthi movement.

Despite the Saudi Arabian Kingdom’s claims that it is bombing the positions of the Ansarullah fighters, Saudi bomber pilots are strafing residential areas. According to Fars News Agency tallies, the Kingdom’s attacks have so far killed upwards of 3,600 civilians, the majority of them women and children.

The post Yemeni Jihadists Invade Saudi Arabian City In Jizan Province – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

We continue with the third part of analyzing Media (il)literacy within South-East Europe, having in mind that having an illiterate media-type people within the area is a blessing for the politicians.

People usually say, “Trust them, without doubt,” when referring to the  content of the news on any News channel in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo*, and Macedonia…

2. The gradual strategy (by Noam Chomsky)

“Acceptance to an unacceptable degree, just apply it gradually, dropper, for consecutive years. That is how the radically new socioeconomic conditions (neoliberalism ) were imposed during the 1980s and 1990s: the minimal state, privatization, precariousness, flexibility, massive unemployment, wages, and do not guarantee a decent income, so many changes that have brought about a revolution if they had been applied once.”

Croatia: Transition is something that is unavoidable within the past twenty years, but the “transition” is in the way how former communists and current capitalists (but also the newest nationalistic tycoons) thought it should be: a cheap buy off during privatization of the former big trade and production companies, merging them within consortiums, and the “killing” (i.e. even buying them and linking them to the existing clusters) of small companies through the damping of prices for the goods presented within the market. It has to happen, they have said – politicians, because that is the future. Slowly, we will develop, they were saying in the 1990s (XX Century). Currently, in the second decade of XXI century, Croatia has an unemployed rate of 16,.7 % and is among most undeveloped countries of the European Union. Transition has killed a future over there. Is there a light at the end of tunnel? Maybe, through lustration, but is it too late?

Is the Media in on it? Just under the control of the ones who have the money and pay to present their own variant of truth. Independent media: died in 2008 with the Feral Tribune, possibly the most independent media in Former Yugoslavia area, beginning from 1990.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: First, divide a country in small pieces (in Dayton, back in 1995, which had stopped the War, but did not bring anything else other than peaceful suffering) and have 148 ministers within four levels of authorities (municipal, cantonal, entity and state level – and there is even a fifth, separate, district level for one city-Brčko) for education and divide, which is unavoidable (because, we are different, for God’s sake…nacionalists screamed…being faced with the point that there is no need for the translation of three “different” languages: Bosnian, Croatia and Serbian in Bosnia and Herzegovina…60% of equality of languages, proved by world-known linguistics, shows that in use is only one language, and yet over here there is 80% of equality…so?!) children as known apartheid once upon a time in South Africa and/or Nazi Germany. You can even find in Bosnia and Herzegovina (especially in Middle Bosnia Canton and Herzegovina Neretva Canton) schools in which kids are entering in the same building, but going to different classrooms and having two directors for two schools under one roof and two different professors for the same subject, because…of simply Apartheid, regardless of if we are talking about Bosniaks, Croatian and or Serbs. What we will do about the others, then? Nothing, and it will happen to them like it happens to in the famous “Sejdić – Finci question” since 2009. Gradually, strategically going towards the history because they are the “others“ and not “our kind of human nationalists”. It has been shown that today’s kids, after 20 years of brain-washing with “my own history, language and geography” do not not know anything about those we are different from them. But then, that was the goal of the gradual strategy for division of education. It has been a very successful one, I have to admit, because, it will not help in the interaction of the cultures and by that improvement of my and/or his/her own culture, but instead a separation of it. For good. In the XXI Century. In the heart of Europe. In the Balkans.

Media (il)litteracy has been shown with the unitary and/or nationalistic supression of the truth. There is no “middle of the road“ truth, but one small reflextion of the light within very small group of teachers and students led by Prof. Nenad Veličković from University of Sarajevo within “Školegijum“, who tries to wake up memories on the bright future within education, just if…we interact properly.

Serbia: The myth of Kosovo’s battle in Serbia has been built through the centuries reflecting a lost battle as the victory. The battle was lost in 1389 when Turks won against the Serbian army —  but “we won” Serbian nationalists have screamed through the ages, centuries. Today, Kosovo*, and everybody sees that, is not anymore in any kind of way in Serbia, and it has been recognized as sovereign state by the side of 108 countries in the World. Of course, there are still a lot of things (politically, economically, socially) to be done to be fully recognized by the UN and big-world countries such as Russia and/or Spain, but having the USA, Great Britain and Germany recognize them shows a lot. Nevertheless, let’s go back to the gradual strategy of both sides in regards to their own thoughts about the Kosovo as part of or not part of Serbia: Serbia was teaching everybody that Kosovo is part of Serbia and will never be recognized such as sovereign country by Serbia – especially after delusion of Yugoslavia and losing even small control over it by Serbian authorities. At the same time the gradual strategy of Kosovo is slow and easy negotitations to gain as much as sovereignty as they can by small, successful steps. Who will win, in the end. No one yet knows,  but we do know who has lost: Both the citizens of Kosovo and Serbia. Why? Check out unemployment rates and recession. Can they physically survive if fed only through a national(istic) vocabulary such as: “We will eat roots of the plaints but Kosovo will stay as a part of Serbia,“ and/or “Kosovo is on its own regardless of the suffering…and we will suffer even more…and stay on its own.“?! What about humanity. Gradual strategy of humanity? Is there any over here. Or this is the real end, my dear friend.

Media (il)litteracy reflection with exclusions of the truths on both sides — and people on both sides are really brainwashed with their “own truth”. No other truth is acceptable but ours, presented in all media in Serbia and/or Kosovo. Just walk on the street in Belgrade and ask either side is Kosovo independent…You might be beaten even.

Montenegro: Majority of Montenegrians over the minority of Serbians. Both with orthodox roots. Two different churches. One God. Same religion. Showing that the language is Montenegrin, and not the Serbian language as it used to be called — even introducing new words within it. Slowly, but surely, nations within the area of the Balkans are shaping them up within their own culture and language what is the preconditions to become real nations. But, what about this: “We are two tribes of the same people. But. The problem is which one!” That is why there are disputes between Serbians and Montenegrians in Montenegro. Serbs were saying that Montenegrians are Serbs and Monetegrians are saying that Serbs in Montenegro are Montenegrians. Where are the humans, after all?

Media (il)litteracy reflection with exclusions of the truths on both sides and people on both sides are really brainwashed with their “own truth”. No other truth is acceptable but ours, presented in all media in Serbia (focusing on Serbs in Montenegro and some news journals and portals in Montenegro even) and/or Montenegrin newspapers and portals. There are even cities in Montenegro which are more Serbian than Serbs cities in Serbia. Am I wrong?

Macedonia: Recent riots against the Government (1,000-3,000 people between 5.5. – 7.5. 2015) on the streets of Capitol of Macedonia, city of Skopje is a reflection of the gradual strategy of both sides that having a stable country is bad for them. Both can exist only within organized anarchy where they can blame each other for all wrong things done in the past. Basically, on the ground is the fight for the authority and money (as shown even within recent coup d’etat in Islamic community of Macedonia).

What about Media (il)literacy? Nothing special Good old story of being controlled by the power of money and authority.

Solution: Simple, as it might be. Education based on scientific knowledge of educators who respect others and different ones and within months it will be changed. The [roblem is…where to find them (educators) with mentioned quality. And how to give them that power of teaching? The questions arises, but that is good, because practical answers will come, eventually. Without that, even the worst thing that can happen would be as it was back in 1990, after the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Guess?

P.S.. Next time: The strategy of deferring

The post South-East Europe On Edge Of Civilization: Depending Who You Ask – Media (il)literacy (Part III) – The Gradual Strategy – Essay appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Hilary Wise*

Mona Samouni was 10-years-old when she lost her home, her parents and 19 other relatives, after they were crushed before her eyes in one of the bombing raids of Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in 2009. In an award-winning film, she speaks of her past experiences with an almost eerie detachment, as if she is telling someone else’s story.

One can only guess at what is going on behind that calm facade, as she sends a heartbreaking message to other, luckier children: “I ask the children of the world to take good care of their mothers and fathers… People don’t appreciate the blessings they have till they lose them.”

For years after that shattering event, Mona obsessively drew and redrew the images that haunted her – “a sea of blood and body parts”. She suffered recurring nightmares, fits of anger and lack of concentration at school. But thanks to a loving family environment and intensive therapy, she seems to be gradually recovering.

‘Continuous PTSD’

Of the 900,000 children in Gaza, UNICEF reckons 373,000 are in need of “psycho-social first aid”.

The Gaza Community Mental Health Programme (GCMHP), which runs three psychiatric clinics in Gaza treating both children and adults, struggles to cope. Psychiatrist Yasser Abu Jamei, who heads the GCMHP and who himself lost many members of his extended family in last summer’s onslaught, said: “There was no place for parents and children to hide… You never knew where the bombs were going fall.”

According to Dr Abu Jamei, the most common symptoms among children are anxiety and fear. They are afraid of being separated from their parents, have frequent nightmares and often develop a stammer. Schools report higher levels of aggression and low school achievement for many children. An important part of GCMHP’s work is training both teachers and parents on how to deal with the aggression.

Of the situation in Gaza, Dr Abu Jamei jokes: “This is a form of continuous post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)” – or, as I like to say, it can’t be “post-traumatic stress disorder” if it is not yet “post”. Because, beyond the daily privations of life in Gaza – the desperately overcrowded housing conditions, inadequate food, a contaminated water supply, badly damaged schools – the wider context is one of ongoing, unpredictable attacks.

The film in which Mona Samouni appears, Where Should The Birds Fly, gives the lie to Israel’s claim that its assaults on Gaza are purely retaliatory: we see the harassment of farmers attempting to harvest their crops and of fishermen trying to earn a living in the polluted stretch of sea where they are supposedly allowed to put down their nets. But for the presence of international observers, the casualties from such attacks would undoubtedly be much higher.

In seeking to understand Israel’s seemingly random brutal actions, we should remember a key slogan in Bill Clinton’s election campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid!”

An Israeli-made film, The Lab, lifts the lid on the Israeli arms industry – a multi-billion dollar a year earner and the backbone of Israel’s economy. As the title indicates, Gaza is the place where the effectiveness of Israel’s super-sophisticated weaponry and new military strategies can be evaluated and demonstrated to the world.

Israeli industry minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer explains in the film how Israel has an edge over its competitors in the field: “People like to buy things that have been tested. If Israel sells weapons, they have been tested, tried out.”

Even more chillingly, Amiram Levin, former general and now an arms dealer, explains to a rapt audience the role of the Palestinian people: “You have to understand, most of these people [in Gaza] were born to die – we just have to help them.”

Israel has certainly been launching increasingly violent attacks on Gaza every couple of years since 2008, and arms sales have been soaring. Does this mean that the people of Gaza can expect a fresh all-out assault every time the Israeli arms industry needs a boost, irrespective of international conventions on the rights of civilians?

The recent report by the Israeli military whistleblower organisation Breaking the Silence, confirms that the Israeli army is now in open contempt of the accepted rules of armed conflict: last summer soldiers were told to shoot and shell anything within range – the range of a tank being two kilometres. Those who questioned these orders were told: “There are no innocent civilians.” No wonder the dead in the last onslaught were very largely civilians, including 537 children.

But what if Palestinian children, both in Gaza and in the West Bank, were also unwitting subjects in another long-term experiment – one of social and psychological engineering? In the West Bank children may not suffer the traumas of those in Gaza – but when your parents are humiliated by soldiers and attacked by settlers before your eyes and you fear a violent incursion by heavily armed men in the middle of the night, what are the long-term psychological effects?

As Israel’s sophisticated psychologists must know, witnessing and experiencing violence and humiliation while being powerless to resist breeds anger, frustration and the desire for revenge. Is this precisely what Israel wants? Do they hope to produce a generation of disturbed young people, some of whom will be spurred to desperate acts of retaliation? There is a logic to it. Israel relies absolutely on provoking some form of violent response, however ineffective, that it can use to justify its demonstrations of military might and its ongoing expropriation of Palestinian land.

Gazan-British mental health worker Wasseem El Sarraj speaks of the “sustaining rituals” of everyday life in Gaza, which somehow survive: “There is laughter, happiness and beauty amid deep and profound suffering.” The population is fortified by a strong sense of identity, enduring family networks and the knowledge that both international law and natural justice are on their side. But all fear that Gaza’s legendary resilience may be put to the test once more, before long.

* Hilary Wise is a writer, an academic and an activist. She also was editor of Palestine News for eight years. (This article was originally published in PalestineChronicle.com)

The post Gaza: Children In Crisis – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mert Ussakli*

“April is the cruelest month.” For many, T.S. Eliot’s famous line may conjure images of the post-World War I wasteland, but for the Turkish, it brings back many other painful memories. The anniversary of the Armenian genocide on April 24, the anniversary of the May 1, Taksim Square massacre of 1977, the approaching second-year anniversary of the Gezi Park protests in 2013… All of these polarizing historical events line up one by one on each cruel Turkish spring. What do these sad events remind us of?

Perhaps, first that Anatolia and Istanbul are historically multicultural landscapes that have been home to many peoples. Second, that unfortunately, a homogenizing tension has constantly been looming over Turkey.

If the Armenian tragedy or the anti-leftist massacre of 1977 teaches us anything, it’s that the struggle to homogenize Turkey has been on the agenda of various groups that have managed to maintain their political and ideological power. These are groups like the Young Turks of 1915 and the pro-American right-wing ideologues of the 1970’s. Although our intuition is to call all such polarizing and homogenizing actions “anti-cosmopolitan,” or in other words, against the modern idea of a universally shared morality of mutual respect, the last decade leading up to the Gezi Park protests teaches us something different.

The critique of Gezi Park protesters was aimed exclusively at the governing party, AKP, and (then prime minister) president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and their urban and social decision-making. If we go back to 2003, when AKP was elected, they represented a progressive front that was a step away from the strictly secular nationalist character that had shaped the nation’s political history until then. The liberals believed in AKP’s Islam-democracy synthesis. After the economic debacle of 2001, their liberal economic model seemed like a promising idea that would help Turkey find its place in a global economic framework and therefore help recovering from the crisis. AKP’s main critic, the outdated strict secularist opposition, wasn’t able to prevent AKP’s coming into power.

Fast forward to the chaos among tear gas canisters and injured citizens at Gezi Park in 2013—we see an educated youth protesting and clashing with the police to stop the construction of a shopping mall on one of the last green spaces of Istanbul. What happened? The plan to liberate the economy came at an unwarranted cost, and that cost was the rapid urbanization, globalization and consequently homogenization of a city like Istanbul. The Gezi Park events were the consequence of a growing frustration amongst Istanbullers, disappointed by the poorly planned urban expansion of Istanbul. The issue wasn’t merely an urban issue. Many local gems, like the classic Emek Cinema of Taksim and other shops and bazaars run by minorities were all replaced by global brands and shopping malls.

As a Turkish young adult who often roams the streets of Kadıköy and Taksim, I can say that this transformation is truly felt in the city. I saw Syrian and Armenian high schools shut down due to declining attendance and funding, my favorite Greek food joint replaced by a mediocre international ice cream brand, old buildings pre-dating the Republic—which used to be inhabited by the Armenian minority—renovated and turned into shopping malls, and many other similar changes. These are examples of the kind of social consequences that resulted from the pragmatist strain of cosmopolitanism Turkey adopted in the 2000’s. This policy necessitated that every citizen conform to a single urban and economic scheme. However, to preserve a multicultural environment, we must expect to have multiple socio-economic models to work at the same time.

It’s a compromise between the one and the other, and Turkey is currently favoring what we might call “practical cosmopolitanism”. As a consequence, Turkey is approaching a homogenized future in an accelerated pace.

This kind of practical cosmopolitanism is against the vein of what we should strive for if we want to preserve the uniqueness of places like Istanbul. Perhaps the angst of Gezi mainly aimed at the surging (and persisting) authoritarianism of the AKP government, but the way in which Istanbul is gradually losing what makes it unique was surely its catalyst.

What Turkey needs is a new cosmopolitan project. One that is respectful, inclusive and open-minded. What practical cosmopolitanism gives us is a free culture market. This market is, unfortunately, easily dominated by the alluring materialism of a uniform, globalized economy. This comes to us in the form of shopping malls, brands and rapid urbanization. This is exactly what Turkey, and Istanbul in particular, does not need. When considering cosmopolitanism, we must always remind ourselves to neither be habitually bound to our local cultures nor open to cultural influx to the point of cultural assimilation. The danger is that it is very easy to slide into one of these two trajectories and this is exactly what has been happening in Turkey this past decade or so.

As we remember Turkey’s tragedies, we must put them and today’s struggles side by side to steer away from an assimilationist, “non-cultural” future. There is a value to cultural and urban nuances. This is a type of value we cannot measure objectively. Considering the future of Turkey, we have to take these nuances into account. Where we live, we must live together, as different groups, as different people; respecting, understanding, and in harmony. Only by embracing this unique humanist specimen of cosmopolitanism can we understand Turkey’s polarizing past correctly and choose to stand against the homogenizing specter that haunted our past and still haunts us today.

*Mert Ussakli is an undergraduate student from Istanbul, Turkey studying computer engineering at Columbia University. He works as a freelance music journalist for Columbia Spectator and occasionally hosts a radio show at New York City’s WKCR.

The post Mourning A Turkish Spring And Preserving A Cosmopolitan Turkey – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Houthi fighters in Yemen have announced that they are prepared to engage in negotiations with the Saudi-led coalition forces bombing their country to end the plight of their people.

In a statement issued on Sunday May 10, they also called for more humanitarian aid for the people of Yemen.

Reuters reports that in their statement, the Houthis agree to hold talks with the coalition forces under the umbrella of the UN.

Saudi Arabia had announced that if the Houthis accept a ceasefire, they will stop air strikes on Tuesday for five days.

Reports indicate that the Yemeni capital of Sanaa is surrounded by a cloud of dust from the continued Saudi attacks.

The post Yemen: Houthi Fighters Say Ready For Talks With Saudi-Led Coalition appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Joanna Paraszczuk

(RFE/RL) — For the Islamic State (IS) group, appearances are everything.

That’s why, in recent days, the militant group has focused its propaganda efforts on positive developments in the Iraqi city of Mosul.

IS overran Mosul — Iraq’s second-largest city with a population of around 2 million people — in June 2014.

But if the assumption is that the city was left in ruins, IS’s propaganda machine begs to differ. It is sharing pictures of the city showing supermarkets with shelves stocked full of goods and workers diligently tending the city’s public gardens.

Perhaps the most bizarre of IS’s recent PR efforts is a series of photographs claiming to show the grand reopening of Mosul’s finest hotel, the Nineveh International.

In one photo, shared on Twitter on May 2, a throng of men and black burqa-clad women are seen gathered near the hotel’s pool. They are there not to watch a public execution, but to attend a party. In another image, a small bunch of colored party balloons are captured floating against a background of black IS flags.

In another set of images, workers are shown renovating the hotel’s exterior. (IS, which always looks for opportunities to portray itself as a bona fide state performing real government services, likes to show photographs of municipal employees working under its command.)

IS hasn’t just reopened any old hostelry. The Nineveh International Hotel is — or was — one of the best hotels in Mosul, perhaps even in Iraq. The SouthTravels.com website notes that the hotel is just 10 minutes from the city center and says its 265 rooms boast “luxurious elegance and comfort.”

A review on TripAdvisor claims that the hotel is “the best hotel in Iraq” with a “very nice wedding room.”

The reviews were, of course, made before IS overran Mosul in June 2014.

‘Business As Usual’

That IS has reopened one of Mosul’s best hotels is no mere flight of militant whimsy. Like the photographs of well-stocked supermarkets and tidy gardens, IS’s five-star hotel is part of a concerted effort by the group to give the impression that it is not just in control of life in the Iraqi city, but that Mosul is living the good life.

The same message of “business as usual in Mosul” was put out in January via British IS hostage John Cantlie. The captive photojournalist insisted that Mosul was an “absolute heartland” for IS, that the city’s residents were happy, and that markets were “bustling.”

Behind IS’s carefully constructed facade, however, a grimmer reality lurks.

Though IS has almost total control of messages coming out of Mosul — the militant group has shot journalists working in the city — some news does filter out of Mosul via activists. And they say that life in the city is far from the rosy picture painted by IS propaganda.

Mosul Eye, a local historian who has been secretly documenting IS’s activities in Mosul since the militants overran the city in June, has provided a glimpse on Twitter of what life is really like in Mosul. It is not possible to verify the identity of Mosul Eye, but Iraq watchers believe the account is credible.

Some of Mosul Eye’s most recent postings describe some of the grim realities of life under IS.
The Mosul Eye, with an advertisement for beardsThe Mosul Eye, with an advertisement for beards

On May 2, Mosul Eye wrote that IS members arrested 32 people in Mosul and shot five of them dead, “with no clear reason that led to those arrests.”

The group has also issued a decree that forces Christians to hand their homes over to IS’s foreign militants, according to Mosul Eye.

Local Iraqi militants who were already occupying houses belonging to Christians have reportedly been ordered to vacate the homes within a month.

IS has also used child militants in Mosul, according to Mosul Eye, which said the group had involved kidnapped Yazidi children.

Some of the ways IS members exert control over Mosul residents appear bizarre: the extremist group recently issued a decree ordering all men to grow beards, while Mosul Eye claims that the group is now insisting that men’s trousers be a certain length.

Defiance

IS’s reopening of the Nineveh International Hotel can also be seen as an act of defiance in the face of IS losses and pressure from U.S.-led air strikes and Iraqi plans to retake Mosul.

The United States carried out 12 air strikes in 24 hours on May 4-5 in Iraq, including near Mosul.

The posting by IS of images of Mosul residents gathering at an IS-run party at a large hotel in the city gives the message that the militant group is not concerned with the air strikes.

IS also wants to show that it is still in control in Mosul, despite the loss of Tikrit on March 31.

IS has also lost ground in other areas of Iraq, as a map released by Pentagon officials in April showed.

Taste For Luxury?

Beyond the propaganda messages, there is likely another, simpler, reason behind the militant group’s reopening of the Nineveh International Hotel: some militants have a taste for the extravagant.

IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became the butt of jokes last year when he was filmed in a mosque in Mosul wearing what appeared to be either a Rolex or a $5,000 Omega Seafarer which, as CNN pointed out, is the timepiece of choice for the fictional spy James Bond.

Senior IS commander Tarkhan Batirashvili (also known as Umar al-Shishani) demonstrated his penchant for luxury when he appropriated a villa, replete with gilded furniture, a swimming pool, and a Chinese-style bridge in Syria’s Aleppo Province. Batirashvili reportedly liked to spend time pondering life while relaxing in the villa’s jacuzzi.

The post Iraq: Islamic State Mounts Propaganda Campaign In Mosul appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Over the course of Greece’s painful and protracted negotiations with European creditors, Athens has sought, at various times when a deal seems to be slipping away, to play the Russian pivot card.

What began as a series of diplomatic overtures between the Tsipras government and Moscow quickly turned more serious once rumors began to swirl around Greece’s potential participation in Russia’s Turkish Stream pipeline which, as a reminder, will allow Russia to bypass Bulgaria by piping gas through Turkey, then through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, and Hungary straight to the Austrian central hub.

In short order, it leaked that Moscow was set to advance Greece $5 billion against the future potential profits from the pipeline, a payment which we characterized as a get-out-of-Troika-jail free card and although conflicting reports emerged thereafter regarding just how soon money would actually be flowing from Moscow to Athens, discussions around the pipeline continued to move forward when Gazprom chief Alexei Miller visited Greece late last month to discuss “current energy issues of interest.”

That visit proved more than Europe could bear, and so the European Commission promptly filed antitrust charges against the Russian gas giant in an absurdly transparent attempt to punish the Kremlin for interfering in negotiations between the EU and its Aegean debt serf.

Now with negotiations between Athens and creditors still fraught with uncertainty, and with the IMF now reportedly at odds with the rest of the Troika over appropriate bailout terms, another interested party is stepping into the melee because, as NY Times reports, fresh off a humiliating political defeat at the hands of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Washington is in no mood to see the “birthplace” of Western civilization co-opted by a Russian natural gas firm.

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