By Brig Anil Gupta (Retd.)*

Karakoram Highway (KKH) connects Abbottabad in Punjab (Pakistan) to Kashgar, Xinjiang region of China across the Karakoram ranges. India has five mountain ranges which guard its northern frontier, namely, Karakoram Range, Zangskar Range, the Ladakh Range, Himalayan Range and the Pir Panjal Range. The Karakoram ranges are the northern most and also form the de facto border along which runs the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. Karakoram Highway is the highest paved strategic international road which crosses the Karakoram Range at Khunjerab Pass (15,397’) and is presently a fair weather road. KKH meanders through the Gilgit–Baltistan region (part of Jammu & Kashmir state and presently in illegal occupation of Pakistan). The work is in progress to make it an all-weather road through construction of tunnels, widening of the road to thrice its present specification, construction of bridges and enhancing the load carrying capacity by three times.

The highway initially was constructed jointly by Pakistan and China, but its up-gradation is being undertaken by a Chinese company called China Road and Bridge Corporation (CBRC). Consequently, there is large-scale presence of Chinese labour and military troops in the area. The KKH will be linked to the newly- constructed port of Gwadar, built with Chinese aid. This would reduce the distance from the nearest seaport to the land-locked Xinjiang province by 200 km.

It is also proposed to develop KKH into an economic corridor, referred to as the Karakoram Corridor (KC). It would involve up- gradation of KKH into an all-weather expressway, laying of optic fibre cable (OFC) along its entire length, 1,100 km of trans-Karakoram rail link, laying of oil and gas pipelines. KKH and KC serve both political and strategic interests of China and Pakistan. India cannot afford to remain quiet to increased Chinese presence in the disputed Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK). It has obvious implications for India’s security. While China claims it to be part of its economic strategy to revive old trade routes, Indian security experts denounce it as part of China’s “String of Pearls” strategy to encircle India as well as ensure its presence in the strategically important Gilgit-Baltistan region. It is like the case of a half-filled glass. It depends on how the viewer perceives it: half-empty or half-filled? There is no doubt that the Karakoram Corridor would provide China access to the Indian Ocean, thus giving a boost to its trade. But the fact that it can also be used for military purposes to threaten India and de-stabilise the Indian Ocean can not be ignored.

Readers would recall that in the past KKH has been used by China to supply strategic material for production of its nuclear arsenal as well as for supply of long-range missiles. It was also used to equip the Taliban in Afghanistan during their fight against the USSR. Pakistan used it to ship American weapon systems to China for reverse engineering. Thus, KKH poses a great security challenge to India. It can be used for rapid movement of troops and material from China and Pakistan. It can be used for stationing missiles in PoJK. The tunnels would provide enhanced security to these missiles and their deployment can be kept concealed from Indian and international surveillance systems.

In case of an India-Pakistan war China can make a “pincer movement” to threaten India and tie down its troops in Ladakh sector. China can also keep an eye on the Indian activities in the region by establishing listening posts and advanced surveillance bases in PoJK. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force would have the additional benefit of using the air fields in PoJK in case of hostilities with us. KKH can also become a lifeline for promoting terrorist activities in the troubled Kashmir region. The increased Chinese presence in PoJK will act as a hindrance to resolving the Jammu and Kashmir problem.

Thus Karakoram Highway (KKH)/ Karakoram Corridor (KC) is the focal point of the Pakistan-China nexus against India and for domination of the region. Pakistan has already illegally ceded to China parts of the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan, an integral part of the state of J&K, in Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin. Pakistan calls China as its strategic partner and they both have a common enemy, i.e., India.

A new “Great Game” is being played by China in the region to ensure its hold over the strategic region of Gilgit-Baltistan with active connivance of Pakistan. The Indian security establishment cannot turn a blind eye to the happenings in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. Saltoro Ridge and Siachen Glacier assume great strategic importance in this context. Under no circumstances should India vacate Siachen Glacier. Our defences in Ladakh sector should be strengthened through rapid development of infrastructure. Re-activation of Daulat Beg Oldi airfield in Ladakh by the Indian Air Force has sent a strong message across. The much needed up- gradation and modernisation of the surveillance systems should be taken on war-footing. Long-range surveillance radars and satellites should be deployed to keep the main arteries in China and PoJK under surveillance. Our Special Forces should be tasked, equipped and trained for interdiction of KKH.

Diplomatically, India should oppose Pakistan’s action of separating Gilgit-Baltistan region from PoJK and making it a separate region directly under the federal government. Any talk on ‘K’ issue must include the Gilgit-Baltistan region with India insisting on its complete vacation by Pakistan. Incidentally, with the region being Shia-dominated it is also a victim of Sunni hegemony in Pakistan. Our relations with other neighbours in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region should be strengthened to negate Chinese influence in the region and to isolate Pakistan.

The Narendra Modi government has already flagged it as a major foreign policy initiative which has begun to yield success.

Similarly, in keeping with Kautilya’s advice that “enemy’s neighbour should be your friend”, India’s relations with countries that border China and Pakistan, like Myanmar, Vietnam, Japan, Mongolia, Taiwan and Afghanistan should be friendly and mutually beneficial. Another foreign policy initiative of the Modi government to renew and improve relations with Indian Ocean Rim countries should be pursued with vigour.

Despite recent bonhomie in Sino-Indian relations and the proposed joint military exercise between the two countries India cannot afford to let its guard down. As long as we have an unsettled border with China as well as taking note of China’s military posture in Tibet, India would have to be ready to thwart any Chinese misadventure. Pakistan on the other hand continues to be the breeding ground of terror and an important player of the global jihad against India. It has unleashed a proxy war. Its strategic alliance with China is solely aimed at threatening and destabilising India. Thus, Karakoram Highway and its proposed expansion that provides connectivity to both our hostile neighbours poses a major security challenge.

*Brig Anil Gupta (Retd.) is a Jammu-based security and strategic analyst. He can be contacted at anil5457@gmail.com

By C Uday Bhaskar*

The former Prime Minister of Nepal, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, announced his surprise resignation from his parent Maoist party and Parliament on Saturday (September 26) to express his deep disappointment over the just promulgated mew constitution of his country. The fact that the legitimate concerns of the Madhesis and other groups have not been equitably accommodated has already led to considerable violence and loss of life in Nepal but the Bhattarai resignation will be of deep import to the emerging political contour of the contestation now gathering traction in the birthplace of the Buddha.

It may be recalled that the promulgation of the much awaited ‘new’ constitution by the Constituent Assembly (CA) of Nepal on Sunday(September 20) in Kathmandu has led to considerable turmoil and opposition within that country and aroused visible concern and ire in Delhi. This is a great pity given that the people of Nepal have waited for almost seven years for this exercise of consensual drafting and having in place an approved constitution, as the former monarchy makes the transition to a modern democracy.

The approval was far from unanimous and of the 601 lawmakers in the CA – only 507 voted in favour and the others either abstained or opposed the new constitution. The principal domestic opposition to the new Constitution has come from the Madhesis (inhabitants of the plains who are migrants from India) and the jan-jaatis (ethnic indigenous minorities) who together represent almost 69 percent of Nepal’s 26 million population.

The proposed federal re-structuring of Nepal envisages seven new states, wherein the Madhesis would be distributed for electoral purposes – and only one of the new provinces would have a plains-people’s majority – but again with limited fiscal resources and related autonomy.

Women have been treated with scant regard for equality in the new constitution and Nepal continues to be among 26 nations globally that confer citizenship rights based on gender and birth. In a sharp protest, one of Nepal’s best known writers, Manjushree Thapa, posted a searing comment entitled: ‘Why I burned my country’s new constitution.’

The manner in which the elite hill people of Nepal – the traditional ruling class – have retained their primacy has caused deep anguish and C K Lal, one of Nepal’s most respected intellectuals, noted sadly: “Citizenship is the foundational feature of a democratic statute. By conflating nationality with citizenship, a constitution written in the second decade of the twenty-first century ensures that ideas of bloodline, masculinity and patriotism shall continue to be guiding principles of protecting the purity of Nepali Nation. In operative terms, it means that the women and the Madheshis of all genders will have lesser citizenship rights and may be barred from higher public posts if they fail the ancestry test.”

Introducing such gross injustice in a document as central and sacred as the Constitution that in many ways discriminates against more than 70 percent of the population is neither equitable not defensible and hence the current level of protests and street violence is only likely to grow in coming weeks. More than 40 lives have already been lost and any kind of intimidation by those who benefit from the new provisions in the Constitution will only exacerbate an already volatile situation.

Thus India’s concerns are not unfounded and the Delhi response to the new constitution “that its promulgation has been noted” is terse and the diplomatic signal unambiguous. The Modi government has conveyed its disappointment, concern and ire in no uncertain terms and the reasons are varied but valid.
The disappointment stems from the nature of the special relationship that Nepal shares with India. Open borders across 1750 km and recruitment of Nepalese citizens in the Indian army is Nepal-specific and no other neighbour has this status. Furthermore, when Modi visited Nepal in August 2014, soon after he assumed office, it appeared that his exhortation to the members of the CA to adopt an inclusive and equitable document was given the consideration it deserved. The fact that the new constitution is as skewed as it is speaks for itself.

It is understood that Modi had spoken to his Nepali counterpart Sushil Koirala last month urging him to have an inclusive document – but clearly this had little impact. Ad the last-minute dash by Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar to Kathmandu, advising a delay in the announcement about the Constitution pending negotiations with the disenfranchised groups, fell on deaf ears – and the snub from Nepal was the equivalent of poking Delhi in the eye. Hence the unprecedented turn of phrase in the Indian diplomatic response on Sunday.

The concern in Delhi stems from the manner in which domestic violence and unrest in Nepal – particularly in the plains that adjoin India and where there is an open border – can impact India’s proximate states. Bihar is case in point and the current election cycle can be adversely affected by the fallout from Nepal. The scope for clandestine and criminal activity directed against India by using Nepal as a transit has been an abiding pattern over the last two decades.

And finally the ire in Delhi can be linked to a sense of being deliberately misled by Nepal’s top political leadership apropos the constitution. The PMO in Nepal is being perceived of engaging in double-speak and it is understood that during the Jaishankar visit – attention was drawn to an article by Prateek Pradhan – the former press adviser to the Nepali PM which was very critical of India and PM Modi.

Many constituencies in Nepal empathize with Delhi’s concerns and aver that a high-level political meeting is necessary – to ensure that Nepal does the ‘right’ thing by its own citizens in relation to the constitution. The Modi government will have to find that delicate balance between advising Kathmandu without being accused of interference. Concurrently Delhi will have to review its own capacity to monitor domestic political developments in a proximate state. Is there a pattern here with the Maldives imbroglio that needs rigorous introspection ?

It may be recalled that BR Ambedkar, the principal architect of the Indian Constitution fought tooth and nail with his peers to resist the tyranny of enshrining majority sentiment in a politically sacred document. An equitable and inclusive path was the final outcome. Ambedkar further noted: “My social philosophy may be said to be enshrined in three words: liberty, equality and fraternity. My philosophy has roots in religion and not in political science. I have derived them from the teachings of my master, the Buddha.”

The cue for the land of the Buddha’s birth needs little reiteration. Nepal needs to find its own Ambedkar at this critical juncture and restore the normative to the word and spirit of the new constitution. Will the Bhattarai resignation be the appropriate catalyst ? The alternative is bleak.

*C Uday Bhaskar is Director, Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in

Address by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF At “A Conversation with Christine Lagarde”

(Council of the Americas Washington, D.C., September 30, 2015) — Good morning. Ambassador Negroponte, thank you for the kind introduction, and thank you to the Council of the Americas for inviting me here today.

It is a great pleasure to “raise the curtain” on the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings to be held next week in Lima – our first in Latin America in nearly fifty years.

For those past 50 years, the Council of the Americas has brought together opinion leaders to exchange ideas and forge solutions to Latin America’s biggest challenges. Your mission is very important today because the region is facing serious challenges – and so is the world.

Indeed, I am concerned about the state of global affairs. The refugee influx into Europe is the latest symptom of sharp political and economic tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. While this refugee crisis captures media attention in the advanced economies, it is by no means an isolated event. Conflicts are raging in many other parts of the world, too, and there are close to 60 million displaced people worldwide.¹

Let us also not forget that the year 2015 is on course to be the hottest year on record, with an extremely strong El Niño that has spawned weather-related calamities in the Pacific.

On the economic front, there is also reason to be concerned. The prospect of rising interest rates in the United States and China’s slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility. There has been a sharp deceleration in the growth of global trade. And the rapid drop in commodity prices is posing problems for resource-based economies.

Besides the heartbreaking suffering from conflict and forced migration, there is a human toll from economic dislocation and low activity: more than 200 million people are unemployed worldwide;² income and wealth inequality keep on rising; and women continue to be disadvantaged both in pay and labor market opportunities.

Now, it could be much worse, of course. Let us not forget that we have come out of a major financial crisis a few years ago, and some areas of the world have been doing quite well throughout that period.

For example, think of the many countries in Latin America which, over the past two decades, have transformed themselves economically and socially – bringing a better life to millions of their citizens in the process. There has been tangible progress in Africa, too, and Asia’s economic weight has continued to grow tremendously in recent years.

But many of these gains now seem in jeopardy, and understandably, there is some confusion and concern. I am asked all the time: “Are current economic developments just cyclical or are they structural – is something more fundamental going on?”

The simple answer is that there is no simple answer. Certainly, we are at a difficult and complex juncture. My key message today, however is this: with the right policies, strong leadership, and global cooperation, it can be managed.

Think of past challenges – the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s, the end of the Bretton Woods system, or the problems that confronted the newly independent countries of the former Soviet Union.

Today’s world is, of course, different – demographic pressures, climate change, and environmental degradation are more acute now. But there was just as much risk and uncertainty back then, and policymakers did manage to lead the world economy back into calmer waters.

This is what they must do again today.

Peru’s Nobel laureate, Mario Vargas Llosa, once said: “Uncertainty is a daisy whose petals are never fully plucked.”

Policymakers will pluck some of these “petals” in our Meetings in Lima next week. Today, I would like to pluck a few myself by asking three questions:

Where do we stand? What should we do? How do we make it happen?

1. Where do we stand?

Let us start with the state of the global economy; and then focus on some of the transition issues underlying it.

State of the Global Economy

Our World Economic Outlook numbers will be released next week, but I can already tell you this: global growth will likely be weaker this year than last, with only a modest acceleration expected in 2016.

The good news is that we are seeing a modest pickup in advanced economies. The moderate recovery is strengthening in the Euro Area; Japan is returning to positive growth; and activity remains robust in the US and the UK as well.

The not-so-good news is that emerging economies are likely to see their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth.

India remains a bright spot. China is slowing down as it rebalances away from export-led growth. Countries such as Russia and Brazil are facing serious economic difficulties. Growth in Latin American countries, in general, continues to slow sharply. We are also seeing weaker activity in low-income countries – which will be increasingly affected by the worsening external environment.

At the global level, there is still a drag on the economy because financial stability is not yet assured. Despite progress in recent years, financial sector weaknesses remain in many countries, and financial risks are now elevated in emerging markets.

If we put all this together, we see global growth that is disappointing and uneven. In addition, medium-term growth prospects have become weaker. The “new mediocre” of which I warned exactly a year ago – the risk of low growth for a long time – looms closer.

Why? Because potential growth is being held back by low productivity, population aging, and the legacies of the global financial crisis. High debt, low investment, and weak banks continue to burden some advanced economies, especially in Europe; and many emerging economies continue to face adjustments after their post-crisis credit and investment boom.

Major economic transitions and spillovers

This outlook is heavily affected by some major economic transitions that are creating global ripple effects – what we call spillovers and spillbacks. Let me highlight two of these: China’s transition to a new growth model; and the normalization of U.S monetary policy.

To be clear: both of these shifts are necessary and healthy. They are good for China, good for the United States, and good for the world. The challenge is to manage them as efficiently and as smoothly as possible.

First, China, which is in the midst of a fundamental and welcome transformation. It has launched deep structural reforms to lift incomes and living standards. These reforms will, by design, lead to a “new normal” of slower, safer, and more sustainable growth. The new model relies more on consumption and less on commodity-intensive investment. More on services and less on manufacturing.

It also requires transitioning to a stable, more market-driven financial system. In other words, China’s policymakers are facing a delicate balancing act: they need to implement these difficult reforms while preserving demand and financial stability.

As I said, this kind of major transition can create spillover effects – through trade, exchange rates, asset markets, and capital flows.

We saw some of these spillovers in recent months: investors were worried about the speed at which China’s economy is slowing. These concerns put further pressure on commodity markets and triggered sizeable currency depreciations in a number of commodity exporters.

Those countries have, for many years, relied on China as an export destination. For example, China consumes 60 percent of the world’s iron ore. But as it invests less, China will reduce its appetite for commodities.

This will contribute to what could be a prolonged period of low commodity prices – a change that will need to be managed by policymakers, particularly in the large commodity exporters.

The second major transition concerns the normalization of U.S monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years – although the Fed has also clearly indicated that rates are expected to remain low for some time. This transition reflects better economic conditions in the US, which is also good for the global economy.

Low interest rates contributed to a search for yield on the part of investors, which supported financial risk-taking and higher valuations of equities, sovereign bonds, and corporate credit. So the Fed also faces a delicate balancing act: to normalize interest rates while minimizing the risk of financial market disruption.

Again, there are potential spillovers. The prospect of rising U.S. rates has already contributed to higher financing costs for some borrowers, including emerging and developing economies.

This is part of a necessary adjustment in global financial conditions. The process, however, could be complicated by structural changes in fixed-income markets, which have become less liquid and more fragile – a recipe for market overreactions and disruptions.

Outside the advanced economies, countries are generally better prepared for higher interest rates than in the past. And yet I am concerned about their capacity to buffer shocks.

Why? Because many emerging and developing economies responded to the global financial crisis with bold counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary actions. By using these policy buffers, they were able to lead the global economy in its time of need. And over the past five years, they have accounted for almost 80 percent of global growth.

These policy actions generally went together with an increase in financial leverage in the private sector, and many countries have incurred more debt – a significant portion of which is in U.S dollars.

So rising U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar could reveal currency mismatches, leading to corporate defaults – and a vicious cycle between corporates, banks, and sovereigns.

The bottom line is that proactive policy management by everyone – and especially the emerging economies – is now more important than ever.

2. What should we do?

So much for the diagnosis. What should be done? That is my second question.

While the transitions underway carry a downside risk, we know that this can be managed – by supporting demand, preserving financial stability, and implementing structural reforms.

Most economists would probably agree with this general recipe, but I would like to be very specific today. As I noted earlier, action is required now, and we need to intensify our policy efforts.

To be clear: I am calling on policymakers to make a policy upgrade to address the current challenges.

What do I mean by “upgrade?”

On the demand side, most advanced economies, except the United States and possibly the UK, will continue to require accommodative monetary policies. All advanced economies, however, should fully incorporate spillover risks in their decision-making process and, in addition, ensure that their communications are very clear in this regard. This constitutes a crucial policy upgrade.

The Euro Area can upgrade by fully tackling nonperforming loans worth some €900 billion. This is one of the major unresolved legacies of the financial crisis. By removing the NPL buildup, banks would be able to increase the supply of credit to companies and households. It would enhance the potency of monetary accommodation, improve the outlook, and bolster market confidence.

Emerging economies would need to improve the monitoring of foreign currency exposures of major companies. They should also use macroprudential tools to ensure the resilience of banks vis-à-vis the buildup of corporate leverage and foreign debt. This would contribute to financial stability and reduce the risk of a vicious cycle between corporates, banks, and sovereigns.

At the global level, there is a pressing need to complete and implement the regulatory reform agenda – with a special focus on improving the transparency and oversight of non-banks, or shadow banks. And we still have another major upgrade ahead of us – the resolution framework for systemic, globally active financial institutions remains inadequate.

On the fiscal side, countries should use policies that are as flexible and growth-friendly as possible. The IMF continues to recommend that advanced economies with room for fiscal stimulus use it to boost public investment, especially in quality infrastructure. Credible medium-term fiscal plans also remain a priority, especially for the United States and Japan.

Commodity exporting countries that have policy room for maneuver should use it to smooth their adjustment to lower prices. Others should rely on growth-friendly fiscal rebalancing – including tax reforms, energy pricing reforms, and by reprioritizing spending, including to protect the most vulnerable.

What about the upgrade? Commodity exporters such as Colombia, Norway, and Botswana used the commodity boom to strengthen their fiscal frameworks against shocks. This has put them in a position where they can better determine the pace of necessary fiscal adjustment and thus preserve growth. There is a useful lesson here for others.

Finally, all countries need to upgrade their economic structures through reforms in labor and product markets, infrastructure, education, healthcare, and trade, to name just a few.

3. How do we make it happen?

Which brings me to my last, and perhaps most important question: How to make it happen?

It is, of course, easy to make policy recommendations. But implementation requires skillful and savvy policy making, especially in this phase of lower growth and higher uncertainty.

Moreover, it is important that these policies are implemented not only at the national level, but also that they contribute to a coherent global approach. Given the collective nature of many of the issues involved – like climate change, trade, migration, and the global financial safety net – increased international cooperation is more urgent and essential than ever before.

I was glad to see this spirit come through in the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals last weekend in New York. I hope that it will also lead to a meaningful agreement at the Climate Change Summit in Paris in December.

Or take, for instance, the current refugee crisis in the Middle East and Europe. This is not just a humanitarian issue – it is an economic issue that affects everyone. Everyone has an obligation to help.

The IMF will play its part. We are analyzing the economic impact on our affected members, and we will provide specific policy recommendations. We are also providing more fiscal space in our program support – as we have done already in Jordan, Iraq, and Tunisia.

With our mandate to address growth and economic stability issues at the national and global level, we also continue to refine our core activities – surveillance, lending, and capacity building. And we are adapting to further strengthen our support for our membership as they face the ongoing transitions that I have outlined.

What do I mean by “adapting”? Our “AIM” is to improve along three dimensions: “A” as in “more agile,” “I” as in “more integrated,” and “M” as in “member-focused.”

• First, more agile – for example, focusing our policy advice much more on managing short and medium-term risks and spillovers. Analyzing the inter-linkages between economies and connecting the dots is becoming a hallmark of our work.
• Second, more integrated – macro-financial linkages, for instance, are becoming better integrated into our projections and risk assessments; so are macro-critical issues which have a bearing on growth sustainability – such as financial inclusion, inequality, climate change, and policies to support the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals.
• Third, member-focused – enhancing our delivery of both country-specific assistance and cross-country experience. In my travels to our membership, I find that this sharing of best practices is now one of the Fund’s most highly valued contributions.

I will elaborate further on these “Aims” in my annual address to our 188 member countries next week in Lima. Let me add just one crucial point: the Fund can only be as effective as the support we receive from our members.

Therefore, the adoption of the 2010 Quota and Governance reforms is essential to reflect the dynamic changes taking place amongst our membership, and to ensure that the Fund has the resources that are needed to respond to our members’ needs – today and tomorrow. In fact, this is at the heart of the global financial safety net.

I continue to urge ratification by the U.S. Congress as quickly as possible.

It would be in line with the important role that the United States plays in the IMF – and it is, quite simply, indispensable if the world is to effectively manage the transitions that I have discussed with you here today.

Conclusion

Let me conclude by quoting from the IMF’s founding father, John Maynard Keynes. In the midst of the Great Depression, he wrote this:

“It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress is over. But I believe that is a wildly mistaken interpretation of what is happening to us.

We are suffering not from the rheumatics of old age, but from the growing pains of over-rapid changes, from the painfulness of readjustment between one economic period and another.”

Keynes’s note of realism – and optimism – proved to be right, of course. I believe it is a fitting note on which to end.

Yes, there is uncertainty. Yes, the challenges are great. And yes, with the right policies, leadership and cooperation, we can manage through to a brighter future for us all.

Thank you.

¹ UNHCR’s Global Trends Report: World at War (June 18): the number of people forcibly displaced rose to a record 59.5 million at the end of 2014, up from 51.2 million in 2013 and 37.5 million a decade ago.

² ILO report, World Employment and Social Outlook, Trends 2015: 201 million are now formally unemployed worldwide.

Russia has conducted its first airstrikes in Syria, US officials said, shortly after the country spoke to the UN to urge an international coalition against Daesh (ISIS).

A security source, however, told AFP the airstrikes appeared to have taken place in the provinces of Hama, Latakia and Homs, where Daesh has little presence and the Syrian Arab Army is trying to regain territory from opposition fighters.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights earlier reported Wednesday at least 27 people were killed and dozens wounded from Syrian army airstrikes. Six of the dead were children, the monitor said.

Russia on Wednesday gained approval from its parliament to conduct airstrikes in the war-torn country.

“The Federation Council unanimously supported the President’s request — 162 votes in favor of granting permission,” Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergey Ivanov said, according to Russian news agency Tass.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was the force to support to defeat Daesh. But analysts have expressed concern over Russian troops’ deployment in regime-held areas, indicating Russian military force would likely be used against rebels.

Original article

The first Ikea furniture store, the world-renowned Swedish low-cost giant, will not open for the moment in Morocco. Authorities blocked the opening at the last moment after the government of Stockholm announced its imminent recognition of the Arab Saharawi Republic (RASD).

Moroccan authorities, however, deny that the decision is attributable to ‘diplomatic pressures’, explaining that the company structures in Zenata, between Muhammadiya and Casablanca, “are without certificates of conformity”.

According to Le320 newspaper, the decision is instead “an actual reprisal” aimed at dissuading the Swedish government. “Ikea does not do politics”, was the firm comment of the country managing director, without however specifying if a new date has been set for the opening.

The Western Sahara, the last African colony, was occupied militarily by Morocco in 1975. Its independence was declared by the Polisario Front, backed by Algeria. The RASD, which proclaimed itself independent in 1976, and the African Union, but is recognized by some states, but not the UN that included it in a list of non-autonomous territories.

The Prime Minister chosen by Muhammadu Buhari, four months after swearing as President, is the actual Head of State. He will also head the key Oil Ministry, confirmed a presidential spokesman.

President Buhari has past experience in the sector, given that when the state Nigerian Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) was established in 1977 he was serving as Oil minister.

In the 90s he then headed the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), which managed oil export proceeds.

The announcement of the President’s new post comes a day ahead of the nomination of other cabinet members. Attended for some time to allow, according to Buhari, the introduction of “good conduct and governance regulations”.

By Parviz Azizi

The 70th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will take place in New York City this week and there will be 160 global leaders in attendance. After being absent for almost 10 years from the UNGA, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be delivering a speech along with Cuban President Raul Castro. This year, global leaders will be focusing on sustainable development and international security; mostly dealing with the Syrian-Iraqi conflict with Islamic State, the Ukrainian conflict, and the Afghan conflict. Leaders will be aiming to find a solution to the outbreak of refugee crisis.

This all shines light on the fact that, after 14 years of effort by US and NATO to restore peace and order in Afghanistan, the country is still very much at risk of becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups. The Taliban and other insurgent groups are capable of actively operating across Afghanistan. Moreover, the central government in Kabul remains divided after last year’s election and Afghanistan remains an unstable nation, making Afghan refugees the second-largest group on the move behind the Syrians.

With the end of NATO’s mission in 2014, and due to changes in the Afghan leadership and foreign aid inflows, Afghanistan has experienced three major transitions. The country is experiencing political, military, and socio-economic transitions simultaneously, causing delays, obstacles, and challenges for the newly established democratic institutions in Kabul. It has been a major challenge for Afghan leaders to deal with negative outcomes stemming from these transitions, and make needed adjustments within the Afghan political system.

It is important to keep in mind that these three major transitions are happening at the same time. Consequently, it will take several years to make the appropriate adjustments to Afghan democratic institutions. For instance, Tunisia was a stable state during the Zine El Abidine Ben Ali regime from 1989 to 2011; however, after undergoing a political transition during the Arab Spring of 2011, the country is still in chaos, with high unemployment among the youth population and the emergence of Islamic fundamentalist Wahhabi movements across Tunisia. Compared to the Tunisia of 2011, which only underwent a political transition, one can argue that the national unity government is maintaining government functions smoothly as it tries to restore consistency and stability to Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s Hybrid Presidential System

Divisions among the leaders of the national unity government (NUG) has become a major obstacle to adjusting to national circumstances. In addition, the newly created ‘hybrid presidential system,’ with Dr. Ghani as president and Dr. Abdullah as chief executive officer, is another challenge. The power-sharing deal between Ghani and Abdullah has caused a lot of disagreement and delays on governmental projects. Similar examples can be found in the national unity governments of Cambodia in 1993, and Kenya and Zimbabwe in 2008, and in every case the outcome wasn’t positive. Taking into consideration Afghanistan’s ethnic divisions, this newly hybrid-presidential system may contribute to ethnic conflicts and even lead to another civil war. It is important to understand that the majority of Afghan leaders were former warlords and today these very individuals are also part of the national unity government.

Furthermore, it is wrong to believe that the NUG is in political crisis; perhaps it is better to use the term “political gridlock” to describe the current situation. Former Intelligence Chief Amrullah Saleh claims that the NUG is having a crisis of leadership and management because both leaders are not capable of delivering on policies. Both President Ghani and CEO Abdullah have open lines of communication, but they lack the ability to perform strategic planning and coordination in their day-to-day decisions. Under the present leadership, the government is becoming weaker. The result is tragically predictable: Taliban fighters are gaining more territories in the northeastern part of the country and lately they were able to re-capture most of Helmand province. The NUG administration also promised to fight widespread corruption and implement electronic identity cards for all Afghan voters to prevent future election fraud. It had also vowed to reform the electoral system itself. These projects now seem to be on hold indefinitely.

From a security perspective, NATO’s quick withdrawal had a significant impact on Afghanistan’s security services. The security situation has remained stable in major cities, but it is deteriorating in the villages. Earlier this month, it was reported by TOLO News that ISIS (Daesh) have consolidated their power in Nangarhar province, where Daesh are presently operating prisons and have taken 150 people hostage. According to reports they managed to kill 600 people in the past month. Also, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan (ISI) is flexing its muscle further into Afghanistan, because insecurity has significantly increased in the northern part of Afghanistan. In a leaked report in 2006, the British Defense Ministry claimed that ISI is significantly involved in supporting insurgents against the government in Kabul and that the Pakistani spy agency might have even been involved in the 2005 London bombings. This security deterioration in the rural areas of Afghanistan is getting worse, and if this matter is not taken seriously, insecurity will begin to impact the entire country. After being elected as the first vice-president of Ashraf Ghani in October of 2014, General Dostum once America’s greatest ally against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, has joined the Afghan National Army on the frontlines to fight against insurgents in Faryab province. This move by the four star Afghan general has also boosted the moral of Afghan security forces. It is the first time in Afghan history that an Afghan political leader is willing to leave the presidential palace to fight against the enemy alongside with the National Army on the frontlines.

During the months of July and August 2015, General Dostum, along with his two sons, launched a massive military operation to clear Faryab province from insurgents. Under General Dostum’s clearance operation, the Afghan National Army was capable of clearing several districts in Faryab, such as; Baland Ghor, Khetai, Katawolang, Tagab Erak, Qowchin, Khwaja Kenti and Sari Cheshma. The Khaama Press reported on August 20th 2015 that several senior Taliban leaders were killed and also a Pakistani General of Inter-Intelligence Services (ISI) was shot in his left eye and died during the operation. General Dostum claims that this is accurate proof that Pakistan directly supports the Taliban and Daesh in Afghanistan. According to some sources, there are 3,000 Taliban fighters stationed in Faryab province and also the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has provided 500 militiamen to fight alongside the Taliban. The province of Faryab is strategically important for the insurgents, because Faryab is the gateway to the other northern provinces. If the insurgents consolidate their power in Faryab province, they will be able to penetrate districts in Balk province and destabilize Mazar-e-Sharif and also promote instability in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the near future. Commander Mohammed Zakaria from the 209th Shaheen Corps responsible for the security of the Northern Province claims that Kunduz province remains the traditional operation base for the insurgents and a major military campaign is also being planned to clear insurgents from Kunduz province in September 2015.

The Pakistan Factor

Foreign spies are active inside the Afghan Presidential Palace in Kabul. Possibly rumors; however, these double agents were also able to participate in important meetings. The presence of these foreign agents in the heart of Kabul has a significant impact on this newly hybrid-presidential system. During a session of the Council of Ministers in Kabul last month, CEO, Abdullah claimed that the presence of double agents or enemy spies within the Afghan government ranks are more dangerous than the insurgents, because they provide valid intelligence for the Taliban and other insurgents. He also claimed that the presence of these spies from the neighboring countries are part of the NUG’s inheritance, and this has caused political gridlock. Moreover, former Jihadi leader Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf claimed this month that most terrorist attacks against major Afghan cities were plotted from the Presidential Palace in Kabul due to the presence of “double agents inside the Afghan political system.” Often, these double agents in Kabul are referred to the fifth pillar in the government, because they play an important role in the decision-making of the NUG. On September 21st 2015, the Afghan Parliament’s Internal Security Commission requested that the Afghan spy agencies (NDS) identify these so-called double agents in Kabul.

In June 2015, President Ghani signed the controversial intelligence Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Pakistan; the aim of this agreement was to enhance cooperation between Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Pakistan’s Intelligence Service (ISI) in their fight against terrorism and separatists. However, this Memorandum of Understanding has been strongly criticized by former president Hamid Karzai, CEO Abdullah Abdullah, and by all levels of the Afghan government. In a sense, the signing of this memorandum is like selling the sovereignty of Afghanistan to Pakistan and allowing the sworn enemy of Afghanistan to penetrate deeper inside the Afghan security services and be able to manipulate key Afghan government agencies in Pakistan’s favor. It is also important to keep in mind that the final document of the MoU was signed by President Ghani and ISI without informing or consulting the CEO Abdullah. Thus, former president, Hamid Karzai informed Dr. Abdullah about the ratification of MoU agreement. During the formation of the National Unity Government in 2014, it was decided the CEO should be able to participate in bilateral decision-making meetings with the president. However, the signature of MoU document by President Ghani without the CEO’s consent confirmed that the president did not respect the terms. In addition, this showed that the NUG remains divided and they do not speak with a single voice. The chief executive officer position is written in the Afghan constitution and will consequently end in two years. President Ghani will have to hold a loya jirga meeting in two years, in order to amend the Afghan constitution and create the position of the prime minister for Dr. Abdullah.

Another example illustrating weakness and division among key NUG leaders is the decision taken by the first vice-president, General Dostum to launch a military operation to clear Faryab province from insurgents. This decision was taken unilaterally by General Dostum with the support of the acting provincial governor of Northern Balkh province, Ata Mohammad Noor. This new military alliance in Northern provinces between General Dostum and Governor Noor is very controversial, because this alliance is reminiscent of the Afghan civil war of the 1990s. On September 13th 2015, Khaama press reported that General Dostum is willing to lead another operation against ISIS in Nangarhar province. General Dostum’s military operation to clear insurgents from Faryab province was very effective and the citizens of Nangarhar province agreed to fight with General Dostum side-by-side like brothers against ISIS.

October 2015 marks the first anniversary of the national unity government and both leaders should make an effort to make the hybrid-presidential system work in order to solve the current political gridlock. If they are unable to come to a solution to end this political impasse, the Taliban and other insurgents groups will have ever greater influence and they will expand their areas of control. As a result, former warlords will form their own militias again to drive the Taliban back. Under these conditions, it wouldn’t be long before Afghanistan was in the grips of yet another civil war.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

If the peevish expression on Barack Obama’s face was any indication, Vladimir Putin is a force in the world who cannot be ignored. Ever since Russia annexed Crimea in response to the United States- and NATO-backed coup in Ukraine, Obama and the corporate media have falsely declared that Putin is isolated from the rest of the world. They claim he is a monster, a despot and an irrelevance on the world stage.

While the G8 member nations turned themselves into the G7 in order to snub Russia, president Putin was making friends elsewhere. He may have been isolated from the United States and its clique, but not from China and the other BRICS nations or Syria or Iran or Iraq. While western nations use the Islamic State (ISIS) as a ruse to exact regime change in Syria, Putin has formed an alliance to carry out the task of eradicating that danger which was created by western intervention.

Presidents Obama and Putin both made their respective cases before the United Nations General Assembly at its annual meeting. Obama’s speech was an apologia for imperialism and American aggressions. He repeated the lies which no one except uninformed Americans believe. If he calls a leader a tyrant he claims the right to destroy a nation and kill and displace its people. Despite the living hell that the United States made out of Libya, Obama continues to defend his crime. He blandly adds that “our coalition could have and should have done more to fill a vacuum left behind.” Apparently he hopes that no one is paying attention to the horrors inflicted on Libya or the ripple effect which created numerous other humanitarian crises.

Not content to defend the indefensible, the president made it clear that the Obama doctrine of regime change and terror is alive and well. “I lead the strongest military that the world has ever known, and I will never hesitate to protect my country or our allies, unilaterally and by force where necessary.”

In contrast, the man labeled a dictator acknowledged the importance of respecting every nation’s sovereignty. “Rather than bringing about reforms, an aggressive foreign interference has resulted in a brazen destruction of national institutions and life itself. Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress, we got violence, poverty and social disaster. Nobody cares a bit about human rights, including the right to life.” Making good use of his time in the spotlight, he made clear that he wasn’t fooled or cowed by the United States. “I cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realize now what you’ve done? But I am afraid no one is going to answer that. Indeed, policies based on self-conceit and belief in one’s exceptionality and impunity have never been abandoned.”

Obviously Putin has self-interest in supporting his allies in Syria and for fighting ISIS. He acknowledged that his country is at risk from some of its own citizens who have sworn an allegiance to that group. Nonetheless, it is important that at least one nation in the world is capable of standing up to American state sponsored destruction and is willing to take action in that effort. Before the United Nations proceedings took place, Russia announced that it would share intelligence with Iran, Iraq and Syria in order to combat ISIS. If the United States were true to its word, that alliance would be welcomed instead of scorned.

Not since the late Hugo Chavez declared that George W. Bush left a “smell of sulfur” has an American president been so openly confronted at the United Nations. Putin’s presence makes it clear that Obama can no longer expect to carry out his international dirty work without effective opposition.

While the corporate media noted the tense photo opportunity between the two presidents they neglected to mention the real issues behind the bad feelings. At a press conference after his address Putin was asked about French president Hollande’s insistence that Assad leave the Syrian presidency. “I relate to my colleagues the American and French presidents with great respect but they aren’t citizens of Syria and so should not be involved in choosing the leadership of another country.”

That simple statement explains the totality of American enmity towards Russia. The NATO nations claim a right to choose leaders, create and support their own terrorist groups and destroy anyone who doesn’t do what they want. Putin is making a case for non-interference and that makes him persona non grata in the eyes of the supposedly more democratic West.

The world ought to fear pax Americana, not a Russian military presence in Syria. There cannot be true peace and stability unless nations and peoples are left to their own devices. The helping hand of United States democracy is anything but. It is a recipe for disaster and requires forceful opposition. If Russia can be a reliable counterforce the whole world will benefit, even if Barack Obama frowns before the cameras.

By Emily Schwartz Greco

With his gentle grace, disarming humility, and penchant for saying “God bless America” like he means it, Pope Francis appeared to sweep Washington off its feet. Cheering throngs accompanied his every move. The powerful and powerless alike made a fuss.

Take Senator Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican who cherishes the oil industry. She swooned over “the love that this man radiates” after Francis blessed her rosary beads.

Francis had just counseled Murkowski and her colleagues to safeguard “our common home” and “avert the most serious effects of the environmental deterioration caused by human activity.” The pontiff also told U.S. lawmakers: “I am convinced that we can make a difference and I have no doubt that the United States — and this Congress — have an important role to play.”

Translation: Please fight climate change.

After mopping up the tears he cried in the pope’s presence a day before he would say Francis inspired his resignation, John Boehner sounded constructive. “With great blessings, of course, come great responsibility,” the House Speaker said. “Let us all go forth with gratitude and reflect on how we can better serve one another.”

So what did lawmakers do that day in the House of Representatives?

Between unanimously agreeing to rename a Missouri post office and letting Representative Doug LaMalfa of California extol National Rice Month, House Republicans dug into the deceptively named “Responsibly and Professionally Invigorating Development” (RAPID) Act.

This measure would arbitrarily restrict environmental reviews for pipelines, dams, and other big federally funded infrastructure while choking off input from the general public. The bill would also bar federal authorities from considering the “social cost of carbon” — climate change — when deciding whether to greenlight these projects.

President Barack Obama has said he’d veto this ploy if it ever cleared both chambers, and experts don’t expect it to become law. Yet when Representative Thomas Marino, a Pennsylvania Republican and a Catholic, took the House floor to urge RAPID’s passage “to get this country working again,” he sounded serious.

Representative Hank Johnson was aghast. “Not only would this Republican bill have the fox guard the henhouse, it would have him install the chicken wire as well,” Johnson said. The Georgia Democrat, who happens to be Buddhist, reminded his colleagues that the pope had just asked them to protect the environment a few hours earlier.

The House passed the bill the next day in a vote largely split along party lines. A related Orwellian-named measure, the Federal Permitting Improvement Act, awaits Senate action. Technically, both bills would undermine the National Environmental Policy Act, known as NEPA.

Congress couldn’t have chosen a worse way to snub Francis.

After the address and before the pope floated off to his next engagement — lunch with 300 homeless people — the pontiff stood on the Capitol balcony, Evita-style. As he blessed everyone gathered before him in Spanish, I stood there thinking that we must have looked like a mass of multi-colored specks.

Yet Francis expressed a belief in our collective power by asking us all to pray for him. Sensitive to the existence of America’s growing population of non-believers, he suggested that people “send good wishes” his way if praying wasn’t their thing.

Maybe the pontiff should have asked us to pray for something else: that Congress might actually listen to a word he’d just said.

*Columnist Emily Schwartz Greco is the managing editor of OtherWords, a non-profit national editorial service run by the Institute for Policy Studies. OtherWords.org.

Only last week, French president Hollande said the deal would not entail any financial costs for his country. According to the French Senate Finance Commitee, the country’s budget is set to lose about 250 million euros on the deal to sell two Mistral ships originally built for Russia to Egypt.

“If the agreement with Egypt to resell the ships is implemented, it will cost the nation’s budget 200 to 250 million euros,” the committee’s statement reads.

This is in stark contrast with last week’s statement by French president Hollande that the nation would not bear any costs from the deal with Egypt. “A decision was made to provide the Mistrals to Egypt, we agreed with President Sisi on the terms and the price. France will not bear any financial costs from this agreement,” he told reporters.

France and Russia terminated a $1.3-billion contract last month following Hollande’s suspension of the warships’ deliveries late last year over the Ukrainian conflict.

Paris repaid Moscow around $1 billion as compensation for breaching the contract.

About 20 million years ago a single flea became entombed in amber with tiny bacteria attached to it, providing what researchers believe may be the oldest evidence on Earth of a dreaded and historic killer – an ancient strain of the bubonic plague.

If indeed the fossil bacteria are related to plague bacteria, Yersinia pestis, the discovery would show that this scourge, which killed more than half the population of Europe in the 14th century, actually had been around for millions of years before that, traveled around much of the world, and predates the human race.

Findings on this extraordinary amber fossil have been published in the Journal of Medical Entomology by George Poinar, Jr., an entomology researcher in the College of Science at Oregon State University, and a leading expert on plant and animal life forms found preserved in this semi-precious stone.

It can’t be determined with certainty that these bacteria, which were attached to the flea’s proboscis in a dried droplet and compacted in its rectum, are related to Yersinia pestis, scientists say. But their size, shape and characteristics are consistent with modern forms of those bacteria. They are a coccobacillus bacteria; they are seen in both rod and nearly spherical shapes; and are similar to those of Yersinia pestis. Of the pathogenic bacteria transmitted by fleas today, only Yersinia has such shapes.

“Aside from physical characteristics of the fossil bacteria that are similar to plague bacteria, their location in the rectum of the flea is known to occur in modern plague bacteria,” Poinar said. “And in this fossil, the presence of similar bacteria in a dried droplet on the proboscis of the flea is consistent with the method of transmission of plague bacteria by modern fleas.”

These findings are in conflict with modern genomic studies indicating that the flea-plague-vertebrate cycle evolved only in the past 20,000 years, rather than 20 million. However, today there are several strains of Yersinia pestis, and there is evidence that past outbreaks of this disease were caused by still different strains, some of which are extinct today.

While human strains of Yersinia could well have evolved some 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, Poinar said, ancient Yersinia strains that evolved as rodent parasites could have appeared long before humans existed. These ancient strains would certainly be extinct by now, he said.

The complex mode of transmission of plague is also reflected in the flea seen in this fossil.

When a flea feeds on a plague-infected animal, the Yersinia pestis bacteria taken up with the blood often form a viscous mass in the flea’s proventriculus, located between the stomach and esophagus. When this happens, the fleas can’t obtain enough blood, and as they attempt to feed again, bacteria are often forced back out through the proboscis and into the wound.

This blockage is in part what makes them effective vectors of the plague, and the dried droplets on the proboscis of the fossil flea could represent a sample of the sticky bacterial mass that was regurgitated.

“If this is an ancient strain of Yersinia, it would be extraordinary,” Poinar said. “It would show that plague is actually an ancient disease that no doubt was infecting and possibly causing some extinction of animals long before any humans existed. Plague may have played a larger role in the past than we imagined.”

The fossil flea originated from amber mines in what is now the Dominican Republic, between Puerto Plata and Santiago. Millions of years ago the area was a tropical moist forest.

Very few fleas of any type have been found preserved in amber, Poinar said, and none have been reported with associated microorganisms, as in this case. This specimen had some other unique morphological features that indicate it’s a species that long ago went extinct.

But it was the associated bacteria that fascinated the researchers.

“Since the dried droplet with bacteria is still attached to the tip of the proboscis, the flea may have become entrapped in resin shortly after it had fed on an infected animal,” Poinar said. “This might have been one of the rodents that occurred in the Dominican amber forest. Rodent hair has been recovered from that amber source.”

Flea-like creatures found in conventional stone fossils date back to the time of the dinosaurs, Poinar said, and the role of insects in general, and as carriers of disease, may have played a role in the demise of the ancient reptiles.

In 2008, Poinar and his wife, Roberta Poinar, wrote a book “What Bugged the Dinosaurs? Insects, Disease and Death in the Cretaceous.” It explored the evolutionary rise of insects around the same time that dinosaurs went extinct. The thesis developed in the book added insect-borne diseases as a likely component, that, along with other biotic and abiotic factors such as climate change, asteroid impacts and volcanic eruptions, led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Some modern diseases such as leishmaniasis and malaria clearly date to those times.

Bubonic plague in modern times can infect and kill a wide range of animals, in addition to humans. It is still endemic in many countries, including the United States where it’s been found in prairie dogs and some other animals. Even though today it is treatable with antibiotics, in the U.S. four people have died from plague so far this year.

During the Middle Ages, however, three phases of the disease – bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic plague – earned a feared reputation. Periodic waves of what was called the Black Death, for the gruesome condition in which it left its victims, swept through Europe and Asia, altogether killing an estimated 75 to 200 million people.

Scholars say that religious, social and economic changes caused by the plague altered the course of world history.

The answer appears to be yes. Schooling plays a surprisingly large role in short-changing the nation’s most economically disadvantaged students of critical math skills, according to a study published Wednesday in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

Findings from the study indicate that unequal access to rigorous mathematics content is widening the gap in performance on a prominent international math literacy test between low- and high-income students, not only in the United States but in countries worldwide.

Using data from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), conducted by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), researchers from Michigan State University and OECD confirmed not only that low-income students are more likely to be exposed to weaker math content in schools, but also that a substantial share of the gap in math performance between economically advantaged and disadvantaged students is related to those curricular inequalities.

The authors–William H. Schmidt, Nathan Burroughs, and Richard Houang, all of Michigan State University, and Pablo Zoido, of OECD–found that in almost every one of the 62 countries examined, including the United States, a significant amount was added to the social class-related performance gap because of what students studied in schools. The 2012 PISA was the first international study to include student-level indicators of exposure to math content. The authors relied on data from more than 300,000 students, who ranged in age from 15 years and 3 months to 16 years and 2 months.

“Our findings support previous research by showing that affluent students are consistently provided with greater opportunity to learn more rigorous content, and that students who are exposed to higher-level math have a better ability to apply it to addressing real-world situations of contemporary adult life, such as calculating interest, discounts, and estimating the required amount of carpeting for a room,” said Schmidt, a University Distinguished Professor of Statistics and Education at Michigan State University. “But now we know just how important content inequality is in contributing to performance gaps between privileged and underprivileged students.”

In the United States, over one-third of the social class-related gap in student performance on the math literacy test was associated with unequal access to rigorous content. The other two-thirds was associated directly with students’ family and community background.

On average, across the 33 OECD countries studied, roughly a third of the relationship of socioeconomic status (SES) to math literacy was due to inequalities in math coverage, with sizeable variation across countries, ranging from nearly 58 percent in the Netherlands to less than 10 percent in Iceland and Sweden. (See Table 1 below for complete OECD country ranking.)

Among the 33 OECD participating countries, the U.S. ranked 11th in the relative importance of schooling to SES inequality.

There are striking differences in how countries group their students and structure their instructional opportunities, meaning that in countries like the U.S. there are greater within-school inequalities in content coverage, while in other countries such as France, Germany, and Japan inequalities are larger between schools.

Regardless of whether unequal learning opportunities for lower-income students were found within or between schools, they exacerbated inequitable student outcomes.

“In the United States, public school curricular and tracking policies are contributing to the growing performance gap between poor and rich students,” said Schmidt.

“Because of differences in content exposure for low- and high-income students in this country, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer,” said Schmidt. “The belief that schools are the great equalizer, helping students overcome the inequalities of poverty, is a myth.”

Burroughs, a senior research associate at Michigan State University, noted that the findings have major implications for school officials, given that content exposure is far more subject to school policies than are broader socioeconomic conditions.

Table 1: Percentage of Total Socioeconomic Inequality Contributed by Unequal Access to Rigorous Mathematics

OECD Average 32%

Saudi Arabia has come a long way in combating the menace of smoking. Be it in the form of cigarettes or Sheesha (water pipe), the banning of this practice in public places such as malls, office buildings and restaurants has been welcomed by most residents.

This menace to public health and the economy is often staggering. This has led to long-term health issues costing governments’ extraordinary amounts of money towards the care of those afflicted with smoking related diseases. In the United States long-term health issues cost the government a whopping $193 billion loss to the economy — an amount directly related to smoking caused illnesses and lost productivity.

China is no less vulnerable. A 2011 report by Chinese health experts estimated that 3.5 million Chinese would die each year because of smoking-related disease within the next 15 to 20 years. One can imagine the additional effect on growth and productivity on the world’s second largest economy as more and more people get struck down with debilitating diseases caused by smoking.

Advanced countries are fighting back. Public smoking is banned. Taxes on the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco related products are extraordinarily high, and labeling on cigarette packs is often very graphic and clear: Smoking kills! From the United States to Australia, governments are clamping on tobacco companies with regulations to throttle consumption and it seems to be having effect.

In much of the Third World there is vulnerability, perhaps because of less stringent regulations or ignorance of the dangers such products will cause. The cigarette manufacturers smarting from losses elsewhere have set up regional headquarters in the UAE and man them with Arab nationals to market their products to the regional population. And it appears to be working. In the GCC, statistics indicate that smoking and tobacco consumption in the GCC is on an unprecedented rise, and especially among the young.

Earlier this month a report came out that the price of tobacco and tobacco products may increase between 20 to 30 percent in Saudi Arabia in the coming three months. This was attributed to the pressures and restrictions being enforced by the Customs department.

While tobacco prices have steadily increased over the years, there has been no change in custom duties since the last increase in 2000 according to Abdul Mohsin Al Shaneifi, director of restrictions and tariffs in the customs department. What this tells me is that the obscene profits generated by the higher prices are not going to go to the government’s treasury but to the pockets of the very people who are responsible for distributing these harmful products.

It is no wonder that the representatives of the tobacco companies based in the UAE enjoy a lavish lifestyle. For them, every price increase means more profit and more bonuses, regardless of the health miseries generated. So how do we fight back? Let us take care of the problem before it becomes a bigger problem.

Anti-smoking campaigns must be introduced early on in schools. Televised public service messages on the dangers of smoking should be screened during televised soccer games where viewership is heavy. The government must slap heavy cigarette import duties to pay for the ever-climbing cost of health-care for smoke-related diseases. The taxes should also fund countrywide anti-smoking educational campaigns. The promotional activities and financial affairs of the regional tobacco companies’ offices must be routinely audited by independent professionals and reports must be submitted to GCC governments.

As one health official stated, “If we look at the magnitude of this problem and its detrimental effects on health, society and economy, the rapidly growing number of smokers of different ages who squander their money on smoking and the increasing rate of diseases caused by smoking, we will realize that it is important for all civil organizations to join forces to combat tobacco.”

Let us bleed the tobacco companies dry before they finish off our last breath!

This article appeared at the Saudi Gazette

By J Nastranis

A new report released after the adoption of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is quite upbeat about Africa’s development prospects, but expresses serious reservations on several counts. “Having made encouraging progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), African countries have the opportunity” to use the SDGs “to tackle remaining challenges and achieve a development breakthrough,” says the report.

“Leadership, innovation and targeted investments in a number of social sectors have led to transformative interventions and in many cases revolutionized people’s lives,” says the report titled ‘Assessing Progress in Africa Toward the Millennium Development Goals – Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda’.

The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the African Union (AU), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) have jointly produced the report.

The report praises Africa for having achieved an acceleration in economic growth, established ambitious social safety nets and designed policies for boosting education and tackling HIV and other diseases. It has also introduced women’s quotas in parliament, leading the way internationally on gender equality, and increased gender parity in primary schools.

While admitting that poverty rates are still hovering around 48 percent, according to the most recent estimates, the study adds that most countries have made progress on at least one goal. For instance, The Gambia reduced poverty by 32 percent between 1990 and 2010, while Ethiopia decreased its poverty rate by one third, focusing on agriculture and rural livelihoods.

The report goes a step further and says that some policies and initiatives have been groundbreaking. For example, Niger’s School for Husbands, which it says has been successful in transforming men into allies in promoting women’s reproductive health, family planning and behavioural change towards gender equality. Cape Verde is reported to have increased its forest cover by more than 6 percentage points, with millions of trees planted in recent years.

But there is the seamy side of the story, says the report adding that much more work lies ahead to ensure living standards improve for all African women and men.

“While economic growth has been relatively strong, it has not been rapid or inclusive enough to create jobs. Similarly, many countries have managed to achieve access to primary schooling however considerable issues of quality and equity need to be addressed.”

The report calls for addressing inequality in all its dimensions:

• Rural development programmes should be integrated, creating growth poles or clusters in rural communities.
• Agricultural productivity should be improved to enhance employment opportunities and rural livelihoods while ensuring a predictable supply of raw materials for the manufacturing sector.
• Social protection programmes should be implemented in order to address the needs of the vulnerable and improve the productive capacities of the labour force.
• The gender gap in inequality should be closed by instituting: conditional cash transfers that prioritize females; curricula reforms and gender-sensitive teaching methods; measures against gender-based violence in schools; and affirmative action programmes that facilitate the full participation of girls in school and the labour market.

Calling for improving productivity and human capital, it says:

• Teachers’ professional development should be improved.
• The educational curricula should be upgraded with a strong component on in-school assess-ment and systematic evaluation of learning achievements.
• The provision of adequate text books and other ICT-based pedagogic materials should be ensured.
• Access to quality early childhood care and development should be enhanced.
• Educational management and planning capacities should be upgraded.

The joint report adds: The continent’s new development priorities, as embodied in the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, are both comprehensive and universal. But it warns that their implementation will entail mobilizing additional resources and partners, and putting in place more robust monitoring systems.

According to the Agenda 2063 website, it is both a Vision and an Action Plan. It is a call for action to all segments of African society to work together to build a prosperous and united Africa based on shared values and a common destiny.

The background to the agenda is that in their 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration, the Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU), while acknowledging past successes and challenges, rededicated themselves to the continent’s accelerated development and technological progress.

They laid down vision and eight ideals to serve as pillars for the continent in the foreseeable future, which Agenda 2063 will translate into concrete objectives, milestones, goals, targets and actions/measures. Agenda 2063 strives to enable Africa remain focused and committed to the ideals envisaged in the context of a rapidly changing world-

In yet another important part, the report, its authors say: “Africa’s regional strategy for sustained and inclusive development, complemented by the global post 2015 development agenda, provide an appropriate framework for sustainable development. Nevertheless, an important lesson of the MDGs is that success will hinge on a credible means of implementation.”

Poor implementation mechanisms and excessive reliance on development aid undermined the economic sustainability of several MDG interventions, the report adds.

With official development assistance to Africa projected to remain low over the period 2015-2018, at an average of around 47 billion dollars annually, the focus should be on boosting and diversifying economies, mobilizing domestic resources and new partners, unleashing the economic potential of women and fighting illicit financial flows, the report’s authors advise.

They add: Achieving sustainable development will also be impossible unless African nations and communities are resilient, able to anticipate, shape and adapt to the many shocks and challenges they face, including climate-related disasters, health crises such as the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and conflict and instability. Investments now in prevention and preparedness will minimize risk and future costs.

Demands to change the definition of victimhood derive from the historical narrative and political dimensions of victimhood.  To recognise paramilitaries as victims would be seen as legitimising their campaigns, whilst removing victimhood status from certain people would demonise and delegitimise them.

By Paul Gallagher

Ever since The Victims and Survivors (Northern Ireland) Order 2006 (which defined victimhood as a result of ‘The Troubles’) was established there have been calls to scrap it.  This is due to the fact that some see the current definition as ‘politically expedient and morally defunct’.  DUP MPs have attempted to amend the legislation every year since it was set and now there are calls from the umbrella group Innocent Victims United (IVU) for a Public Referendum on the issue claiming that this is the only way for the supposed widespread ‘swathes’ of public support to be demonstrated: ‘to let the people’s voices be heard’.

The current definition is as follows:

• (a) someone who is or has been physically or psychologically injured as a result of or in consequence of a conflict related incident;
• (b) someone who provides a substantial amount of care on a regular basis for an individual mentioned in paragraph (a);
• or (c) someone who has been bereaved as a result of in consequence of a conflict related incident.

There is no mention in the definition of the background or perceived morality of said individuals: only that they have been harmed in some way as a result of or in consequence of a conflict related incident.  Those who propose a change demand that the background and the perceived morality of said individuals becomes a determinant factor in such individuals and their carers receiving official recognition as victims.

IVU is asking for this referendum in the hope of generating a debate where we can have a ‘genuine examination of the fundamental issue which cripples this society from moving forward’.  This may be so but what is the short punchy referendum question going to look like and who will decide the wording?  We will need a plain straightforward question to which the answer must be: yes or no?  Realistically I cannot see this happening.  The questions around victimhood are more complex than yes or no and black or white.

Proposals have been put forward by IVU as to who would be excluded from victim recognition in the event that a referendum demands change.  One such proposal is if someone was or ever has been a member of a proscribed organisation.  Would this happen to include members of the UDA?  According to IVU the answer is yes; UDA membership would warrant exclusion. However, the UDA only became a proscribed organisation in 1992 even though it had been involved in violence and paramilitarism for decades.  It was perfectly legal to have been a member of the UDA up to 1992.  So if a UDA member had been killed before the 10th of August 1992 the IVU could maybe count you in as an ‘innocent’ victim.

IVU and similar victims groups along with various politicians have been calling for a change for years now but my question is who benefits and who loses; and why?  What is the real reason for this call?  Is the demand for a change simply borne out of an abhorrence of moral equivalence?  Or is it something more cynical?

We are told that the definition was first devised out of expediency.  This is true.  The whole peace process has been politically expedient.  It had to be.  We needed practical solutions to complex problems.  We were coming out of decades of conflict with many people killed and injured by many different actors.  It was a stalemate that could only be resolved through political dialogue and compromise.  There was no decisive victory so there was no chance for one side to decide the terms of the peace.  What we were left with was a society marred by the violence.  We needed to look at the harms inflicted upon each other: not who did it.

The main thrust of the argument from IVU is that it was all the fault of the ‘terrorists’ and the handful of individuals who brought shame on the military and police by ‘dishonouring the code’.  These are the people who cannot be considered victims in the same way that the ‘innocent’ victims are.  I can understand this notion but I disagree with it.

Those convicted of being ‘terrorists’ are easy to pinpoint; they have criminal convictions.  However, there have been and will continue to be an avalanche of cases where such convictions have been quashed due to violations by those in the security forces who presumably ‘dishonoured the code’.  There are also those who were said to have been ‘involved’ but were never convicted of any offence.

Recent revelations surrounding allegations of collusion between the security forces and various paramilitary groups have cast doubts on whether such a ‘code’ even existed here in the first place.  Recent comments from the former head of Special Branch, Raymond White, indicated that when he requested clarifications, at a meeting with Margaret Thatcher, for legal guidelines on agents involved paramilitary activity he was told to ‘carry on with what you are doing, just don’t get caught’. If we follow this logic there was no code.  The few rotten apples theory does not hold water anymore; it was the barrel itself that was rotten.

The problem with black and white definitions and punitive exclusions are that the situation here was too complex and messy.  I think that this is understood by some in IVU.  Recent press releases from IVU acknowledge ‘that perpetrators and their families live among us (as has always been the case) and if such individuals require support via psychological or welfare-based services enabling them to deal with the aftermath effects of actions they inflicted upon their fellow neighbour then this State has an obligation to provide such support to them as citizens of this Nation’.  This recognises the need to look after those who have been harmed or affected by violent conflict and follows the thinking of Gandhi who said: “The measure of a country’s greatness should be based on how well it cares for its most vulnerable populations”.  Ironically this sentiment fits with the current definition which they seek to change.

I sense that the demand to change the definition is more around the historical narrative and political dimensions of victimhood.  To recognise paramilitaries as victims would be seen as legitimising their campaigns and that would not do.  As I said above certain sections of the community want to pin the blame for all of our ills on the paramilitary groups and onto them alone.

It may also be a way of shutting down calls from those who demand that certain killings be investigated.  Removing victimhood status from certain people would demonise and delegitimise them: labelling them as ‘undeserving perpetrators’ who brought their demise upon themselves.  Why should we look into those killings?

By pinning all of the blame for the Troubles onto the paramilitary groups, any other actors in the conflict would be viewed as clean, innocent and blameless: apart from the few bad apples who ‘dishonoured the code’.  They would sit at the top of this victim hierarchy.  They are to be reified above all other victims and should be left untouched.

Changing the definition for such political ends would be unjust and morally defunct.  It does no service to people suffering on the ground today.  The battle over the definition of victimhood is just another in the ‘battle a day’ mentality of our political discourse.  The war on the streets may be relatively quiet but the conflict remains alive and well in the minds and egos of some sections of our community.  There is a debate to be had on the issues that have crippled our society for years but we cannot let it descend into one with a yes or no answer: it’s not all black and white.

Some may attempt to label me with being an apologist for terrorists for holding such views but I tend to look beyond such sweeping judgements. I know full well the impact of violence on our people and I would not justify it.  However I do try to understand it; to look into the motivations for violence and to make sure I do all that I can to make sure it is never repeated.  Violence is wrong and should not be used in place of dialogue.  That goes for the State too.  The State should not have a divine right to utilise violence to further its political ends.

Paul Gallagher was injured at his home in Belfast, Northern Ireland, in an indiscriminate sectarian gun attack in 1994 in which he was left paralysed and confined to a wheelchair.  He is currently the Chairman of Victims and Survivors Trust – a registered charity supporting victims of conflict.  He is also studying for a Degree in Psychological Trauma Studies at Queen’s University, Belfast.

This article was originally published on Paul Gallagher’s blog, ‘A Journey into the Grey Zone’, and is available by clicking here.

Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena said the edifice of sustainable development should be built upon the foundation of self-discipline and equity. If this could be practised at a personal, community, national and global level, it would mark a giant leap forward for human kind, he added.

“I propose that we, as national leaders, take cognizance of this self-discipline and equity-based approach when drawing relevant Action Plans for the future,” he told the fellow Heads of States participating in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

Addressing the 70th General Debate of the UNGA in New York today (September 30), the President said, in dealing with the past, Sri Lanka will follow a process of truth seeking, justice, reparation and non-recurrence.

President Sirisena said it is imperative that Sri Lanka adopts a new social, economic and political approach to rise up to the challenges of the 21st century. In this regard, reconciliation receives priority attention in my country, he said. He pointed out that the new consensual government under his leadership has already taken several steps to introduce and operationalize constitutional and institutional reforms required to accelerate the achievement of these goals.

“All forms of war and terrorism are a disgrace to humanity,” the President emphasized. He recalled that the Preamble of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states the manner in which such rebellions break out. “Whatever their root cause is, the challenge of this era is to find ways and means to defeat such brutality against humanity. Resorting to terrorism as a means to solve grievances as well as action taken to eliminate terrorism can create problems. Sri Lanka succeeded in eliminating terrorism, which continues to throttle other developing countries extending from Asia to Africa and Latin America,” he pointed out.

“We defeated one of the world’s most ruthless terror outfits. Equally, our post conflict experiences also have been significant. We believe that all these experiences can be shared fruitfully with other developing countries affected by terrorism. Sri Lanka remains prepared to engage in a more active dialogue with these countries and will continue to speak and advocate against terrorism,” he said.

Referring to Sri Lanka’s achievements, he said that Sri Lanka never compromised on these policies which includes universal free education, free healthcare and eradication of poverty. Following a path of social democracy, Sri Lanka has succeeded in achieving high levels in the Human Development Index, even during the years of conflict. This success is testimony to our commitment for achieving the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations, he said.

“As we learn from the Buddhist ethos prevalent in Sri Lanka, I recognize there are three kinds of human conflicts,” President Sirisena said and listed them as:

*The first is the conflict between the human being and nature. We are constantly engaged in this conflict in order to enjoy material comforts in life. As a result, modern human beings seek to exploit natural resources extensively in the name of development.

*The second is the conflict between ‘human’ and ‘human’. Such conflicts occur among individuals, among communities and among nations. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirms that such conflicts occur when human rights are not protected by rule of law, and,

*The third is the conflict within the human being.

“The two kinds of conflict I mentioned earlier occur when we lose the battle within us as human beings. Therefore, this is the root cause of all conflicts,” he said.

The full text of the speech:

Mr. President,

Mr. Secretary-General,

Excellencies,

Delegates,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Being a long standing member of the United Nations, it is indeed an honour and a pleasure for me to address the United Nations annual General Assembly as the newly elected President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka.

Your Excellency Mogens Lykketoft, on behalf of the Government and people of Sri Lanka, please accept my heartfelt congratulations on your election as the President of the 70th Session of the General Assembly.

Let me also convey my gratitude to the former President His Excellency Sam Kutesa who contributed immensely to the achievements of the 69th Session of the General Assembly.

The United Nations now has a distinguished track record of seventy years. We in the UN have consistently engaged in the responsible and challenging task of ensuring global peace, security and development during these past seventy years. However, I realize that similar challenges still lie ahead of us.

Mr. Trygve Lie, the first Secretary-General of the United Nations, when leaving office at the height of the Korean crisis in 1953 described the Secretary-General’s position as: “The most impossible job in the world”. It is no secret that all Secretaries-General who have held office contributed substantively to promote the universality of the United Nations and make it an organization that could serve humanity well in to the future.

The incumbent Secretary-General His Excellency Ban Ki-moon has also made an excellent contribution to the Organization. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, please accept my honoured gratitude and that of my people for the service you have rendered.

Mr. President,

Sri Lanka has been a member of the United Nations for sixty years. As a member state we have played a very active and responsible role in this organization.

Sri Lanka is a nation that respects the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and international conventions and treaties. A main objective of the UN is to recognize, safeguard and promote human rights. Sri Lanka remains committed to fulfil this responsibility. In this respect, we intend implementing a new programme and plan of action in Sri Lanka to advance human rights.

Sri Lanka plays a multi-faceted role in the United Nations. Our contribution to UN peacekeeping missions that began in the 1960s continues. Sri Lanka looks forward to enhancing further, our committed contribution to UN Peace Keeping in the future.

Mr. President,

A new era of democracy dawned in Sri Lanka on January 08th 2015 ushering in justice, freedom and equality. Our social and human development approach is founded on pluralism, reconciliation and sustainable development. The development vision of my Government for the next five years is also based on the same.

The theme of this Session – “Seventy Years of the UN: the Way Forward to Peace, Security and Human Rights”, is therefore very much in consonance with the vision of my Government. Moreover, my Government is committed to developing a proactive and practical programme in Sri Lanka to further ensure peace, security and human rights.

Mr. President,

The people of Sri Lanka elected a new President and a new Government in two consecutive elections during the last eight months. Within the first six months, my Government introduced essential amendments to the Constitution in order to strengthen democracy in Sri Lanka. These amendments have reinforced the foundations of good governance through institutional reforms that strengthened pluralism and democracy. With my personal intervention and facilitation, some of the executive powers vested in the Presidency were transferred to the Parliament and other independent institutions.

Following the General Elections in August this year, I was able to unite the two major political parties in the country to create an alliance for consensual governance in the country, changing the confrontational political culture that prevailed in the country for six decades.

Our new vision for the country involves achieving the twin objectives of sustainable development and reconciliation. A fundamental requirement in this context is dealing with the past honestly and building a modern Sri Lankan Nation.

In dealing with the past, we will follow a process of truth seeking, justice, reparation and non-recurrence.

It is imperative that Sri Lanka adopts a new social, economic and political approach to rise up to the challenges of the 21st century. In this regard, reconciliation receives priority attention in my country. The new consensual government under my leadership has already taken several steps to introduce and operationalize constitutional and institutional reforms required to accelerate the achievement of these goals.

Mr. President,

Sri Lanka is a country that has suffered from conflict. While conflict brings destruction to a society, there are also many lessons that could be learnt during and after a conflict.

All forms of war and terrorism are a disgrace to humanity. The Preamble of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states the manner in which such rebellions break out. Whatever their root cause is, the challenge of this era is to find ways and means to defeat such brutality against humanity. Resorting to terrorism as a means to solve grievances as well as action taken to eliminate terrorism can create problems. Sri Lanka succeeded in eliminating terrorism, which continues to throttle other developing countries extending from Asia to Africa and Latin America.

We defeated one of the world’s most ruthless terror outfits. Equally, our post conflict experiences also have been significant. We believe that all these experiences can be shared fruitfully with other developing countries affected by terrorism. Sri Lanka remains prepared to engage in a more active dialogue with these countries and will continue to speak and advocate against terrorism.

Mr. President

It is in this context that I wish to address the theme of this Session.

We all know that the United Nations was established with the objective of preventing the recurrence of human tragedies derogatory to mankind that took place in the twentieth century. The theme this year is: “Peace, Security and Human Rights”. This theme motivates us to review whether we have lived up to the initial expectations of the United Nations during the past seven decades.

Mr. President,

I believe that for global development, it is important to have a dialogue within the South as much as between the North and South. My country that represents the South can contribute immensely to nurture such South-South dialogue.

Mr. President,

Sri Lanka is in the forefront among the oldest representative democracies in the South Asian region. We have been fortunate in preserving the democratic ethos in our country despite the prolonged conflict. Despite several factors militating against maintaining a high economic growth rate, we succeeded in sustaining the state social welfare policies that were carried over from Independence. We never compromised on these policies which includes universal free education, free healthcare and eradication of poverty. Following a path of social democracy, Sri Lanka has succeeded in achieving high levels in the Human Development Index, even during the years of conflict. This success is testimony to our commitment for achieving the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations.

Mr. President,

Development should result in the empowerment of women and youth and assure security for children. Frustration in youth usually leads to conflict. Nevertheless, Youth is the driving force for sustainable development. Therefore, we should transform the youth to a totally skilled workforce to succeed in the 21st century knowledge-based world. It should be a lead component of the Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda.

We should similarly launch a national programme to empower women and thereby enhance their contribution in development. Special programmes to protect the children and safeguard their rights are also an essential factor to develop an efficient and humane society.

My understanding of sustainable development is not to have sectorally or group-wise isolated development, but to have an inclusive model of development that is capable of uplifting development standards globally. For this purpose, I stress on the need for a fresh universal approach.

Mr. President,

As we learn from the Buddhist ethos prevalent in Sri Lanka, I recognize there are three kinds of human conflicts.

The first is the conflict between the human being and nature. We are constantly engaged in this conflict in order to enjoy material comforts in life. As a result, modern human beings seek to exploit natural resources extensively in the name of development.

The second is the conflict between ‘human’ and ‘human’. Such conflicts occur among individuals, among communities and among nations. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirms that such conflicts occur when human rights are not protected by rule of law.

The third is the conflict within the human being. The two kinds of conflict I mentioned earlier occur when we lose the battle within us as human beings. Therefore, this is the root cause of all conflicts.

Mr. President,

Extremism, over-consumption, arbitrary exploitation of the environment, violation of human rights, vicious disparities in income are all results of our inability to overcome our craving. Among other problems, they cause insecurity, conflict, violation of rights, and exploitation.

The edifice of sustainable development should therefore be built upon the foundation of self-discipline and equity. If this could be practised at a personal, community, national and global level, it would mark a giant leap forward for human kind.

I propose that we, as national leaders, take cognizance of this self-discipline and equity-based approach when drawing relevant Action Plans for the future.

Lastly, we will strive with commitment to raise my beloved people and the Motherland to greatness and wisdom and to bring liberation to the entire humanity in the world.

May the Noble Triple Gem Bless you.

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy recalled during question time in the Lower House that the person who proposed that the Catalan elections last Sunday should be a referendum had not achieved his aim, given that most of the citizens had taken a position against independence.

On another front, Rajoy stressed that there had been “a very significant strengthening of collective agreements” and a reduction in redundancy plans.

During question time, both the Catalan member for CiU, Josep Sánchez Llibre, and the leader of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, asked Mariano Rajoy questions about the situation in Catalonia following the elections on Sunday.

In his answers, the Prime Minister said that the person who called the Catalan elections and presented them “as if they were a referendum has not achieved his objectives” because “most people have said that they were not in favor of independence.” In other words, before he did not have the support of the law and “now he doesn’t have the support of the citizens either.”

“Catalonia has to enter a stage of normality”

Rajoy insisted that after the results on 27 September, “what has to be done is to form a government as quickly as possible, and to ensure the law is obeyed”, in order not to generate more “uncertainty, instability and division in Catalan society as a whole”. In his opinion, the Catalans have to “enter a period of normality, a period that is characterized by collaboration, institutional dialogue” and respect for the law.

Rajoy also pointed out that in this process he has complied with his obligation as Prime Minister of the Government, and recalled that “we are all obliged” to comply with the law, which is what governs how citizens live together.

In defense of constitutional loyalty and dialogue

At the same time, Rajoy recalled that he has always been prepared to talk “within the framework of the law” with the President of the Catalan Government, and has questioned those who aim to do away with “basic principles” such as “national unity, national sovereignty and equality between Spanish people”.

In any event, Rajoy said that in the future, the situation in Catalonia would have to be resolved “with dialogue, with courtesy and without anxiety.” He reproached the Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez for having maintained a position that is equidistant between “someone defending the Spanish Constitution and someone challenging the State by aiming for independence.” In addition, he urged him to set out clearly what the Constitutional reform he demands consists of, because “if not, we are going to think that it is a mere slogan.”

Redundancy plans have fallen by 40%

In response to the member for Izquierda Plural group, Cayo Lara, the Rajoy said that the labor reform had served to reduce labor conflict, as it has made collective bargaining more flexible and currently “layoffs are no longer the last resort.”

According to data provided by the Prime Minister, collective agreements have increased by 43%, while redundancy plans (EREs) have fallen by 40%. In addition, labor flexibility has meant that 300,000 people have been able to maintain their jobs thanks to 6,337 opt-outs from the provisions of collective agreements. There are also fewer strikes and fewer days not worked.

But for Rajoy, the best data are those for job creation and Social Security membership released in recent months. In addition, according to the European Commission’s Economic Office, Spain is the country with the second highest growth in permanent employment in Europe.

To sum up, Rajoy said “the economic situation is much better than it was at the start of this term in office, and we have overcome the serious economic crisis better than the vast majority of countries in the EU.”

The accusation against Artur Mas

At the close of question time, once in the corridors of the lower house, Rajoy was asked about the decision of the High Court of Justice of Catalonia to question Artur Mas as accused in relation to the ballot call on 9 November. He insisted that “it is false, and what is more profoundly unfair, to attribute this type of decision to the Government. This is a decision that corresponds to the body that has taken it, the High Court of Justice of Catalonia.”

Rajoy defended the separation of powers: “Here we have a separation of powers. The Government has nothing to do with the decisions taken by the High Court of Justice of Catalonia, and the only thing we do, as with any other court, is to accept and respect them and that is what I believe we should all do. We therefore respect the division of powers, and this is a judicial decision.”

Rajoy said that Artur Mas should “appear and explain what he is asked,” as in the case of “any other person who may be called to answer questions in court” because “in a democracy judicial decisions are respected, whether we like them or not.”

By Robert MacPherson*

Ahead of the Bandung Asian-African Summit in Indonesia this past April, statements from Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s office suggests a long-range view for enhancing relationships on the continent. Driven by “commitment in strengthening cooperation” and achieving “prosperity through South-South cooperation,” Malaysia is expressing great enthusiasm in exploring opportunities across Africa.2

Indeed, the continent could find itself playing a central role as part of Malaysia’s effort to develop a latticework of political and trade relationships with developing nations. Since the 1990s, Singapore’s northern neighbour has undertaken a sustained effort to build partnerships across the developing world as part of its vision to achieve greater resiliency on the global stage through political and economic diversification.3 The Malaysian Technical Cooperation Programme has featured strongly as a mechanism to deepen bilateral relationships with developing countries, welcoming more than 20,000 participants from 138 countries since launching in 1978.4 In the wake of the recent financial crisis, this commitment to South- South cooperation has certainly been renewed.

MALAYSIA’S 2011 FDI ECLIPSE OF CHINA AND INDIA

Taking note of Africa’s burgeoning investment opportunities, which have delivered some of the highest returns globally in recent years, Malaysia has responded with ever larger amounts of foreign direct investment that blazed a trajectory of consistent 20%+ year-on-year growth over the past decade. These FDI flows culminated at a whopping $19.3 billion in 2011, or 24% of Malaysia’s total FDI outflows that year,5 eclipsing those of both China and India on the continent, and following behind only the United States and France as the third largest international investor that year.6

According to World Bank and UN Trade Statistics for the same year, imports from sub-Sahara Africa reached nearly $1.8 billion, while exports totalled $4.2 billion. Imports have since dropped to around $1.2 billion in 2013,7 while export levels have roughly stayed constant,8 indicating that Malaysia’s interests are less extractive and more focused on identifying markets for Malaysian goods. In terms of total Malaysian trade for 2013, however, African imports amount to less than 1%9 of Malaysia’s total, while exports to Africa are at a mere 1.6% of the total,10 indicating yet still substantial room for growth.

Firms can now be found operating in a wide range of sectors across the continent, from hotel and leisure, shopping, mining, financial services, etc.. The diversity of undertakings reflect Malaysia’s own recent transformation into a more multi-sectored and dynamic economy and indicate appetite in the private sector to establish meaningful in-roads into frontier markets well beyond the ASEAN region.

Economic activity with South Africa has been particularly significant, with bilateral trade relations between the two countries growing by 42% over the 2008-2012 period, reaching 19.7 billion rand (about US$2.5 billion) in 2012. During this past February at the second session of the South Africa-Malaysia Business Forum held in Kuala Lumpur, President Jacob Zuma re-affirmed plans to intensify cooperation and highlighted bilateral progress over the past 20 years which “has grown rapidly in many fields and solidified into a multi-facetted relationship.”11

Apart from South Africa, major trade partners for the export of Malaysia goods in 2014 included Kenya at $737 million, Angola at $585 million and Nigeria at $389 million. The largest trade partners for the import of Africa goods, on the other hand, are concentrated in West Africa, with the highest ranking being Cote d’Ivoire at $355 million, Ghana at $346 million and Algeria at $310 million.12

TECHNOLOGY AND KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS

Elsewhere on the continent, Malaysian company Probase Manufacturing Sdn. Bhd. completed its first road development project in Kenya this past June which leveraged new soil technology to cut the expected price tag of such a project by more than half, while in the process peeking the interests of Rwanda and Swaziland to undertake similar pilot projects worth $3 million each in their countries.13 Other companies, like Pacific Inter-Link, are already long established with a well-entrenched presence on the continent with regional offices in markets like Ethiopia, Nigeria and Ghana, among others, that are engaged in manufacturing and commodities trading.14

While Africa may not be reciprocating in similar levels of FDI, the relationship is nonetheless a two-way street of growing awareness and integration. Preceding the 2011 investment surge, 2010 was marked by an equally rapid increase in the number of African students enrolling into Malaysian universities. According to official UNESCO figures, Malaysia welcomed 120% more African student enrolments in 2010, reaching 11,825 from 5,373 in the prior year. Malaysia is a top-five education destination for a number of African countries and for that year ranked second for out-bound students in Botswana, third for Nigeria and fifth for South Africa.15 The total number of enrolments has only continued to rise thereafter, drawn by easier access to student visas, as compared to countries like the United States, more affordable tuition fees and the multiracial context of the society.16

GROWING POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT

Political engagement has also been two-way, with the Malaysian agenda driven by a robust network of diplomatic missions on the continent that is comparatively larger than many of its ASEAN counterparts. Moreover, the Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation has offices in Johannesburg, Nairobi, Cairo and Lagos and there are a number of business councils set-up to guide and promote economic activity in Egypt, Algeria and South Africa.17 The Malaysian mission to Egypt has been particularly proactive in cultivating pan-African opportunities, especially with explorations into opportunities related to palm oil across West Africa. Head of State visits, on the other hand, have been less frequent with only a few notable bilaterals in recent years, the most significant from Malaysia’s side being Prime Minister Razak’s 2012 South Africa visit.18

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Foreign affairs views the continent as a potential “source of political support for Malaysia in the international fora” and of “strategic importance [for forging] well developed relations and links with African nations.” Stating that Malaysia would be at an “advantage should it expand its bilateral political and economic relationships with most if not all countries on that continent,” their foreign affairs posture seems to drive towards establishing a greater presence of diplomatic missions that would increase coverage and assistance for investment and trade related activities.19 Addis Ababa, the capital of Africa’s fastest growing country, likely ranks as a high priority for deepening relationships, especially since Malaysia has not yet reciprocated to Ethiopia’s Consulate General Office already established in Kuala Lumpur.

THE NEXT WAVE OF OPPORTUNITY: ISLAMIC FINANCE

This current rhythm of engagement is priming the Malaysia-Africa corridor to take advantage of the next wave of opportunity. According to the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre, there are increasingly attractive and feasible possibilities for linking Kuala Lumpur’s bustling Islamic finance community to those sponsors who struggle against substantial funding gaps for critical African infrastructure projects. Several African nations have already successfully turned to the global sukuk market for funding in 2014, such as Senegal’s raise of $208 million Islamic bond and even a $500 million five-year bond by South Africa, a country with less than a 2% Muslim population. Niger has also signed up for a sukuk programme worth $260 million, while Nigeria and Ivory Coast are actively exploring options with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector.20

A 2014 study by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry indicated that Gulf entities have provided $30 billion worth of funding towards African infrastructure over the past 10 years. However, it has not been enough in addressing constraints caused by the non-existent or decrepit infrastructure widely attributed to being a key bottleneck for accelerating growth. Experts estimate an ongoing USD$31 billion per year funding gap for infrastructure on the continent, an opportunity for Malaysian underwriting to play a relevant and much needed role in advancing the continent’s broader development agenda. Already the central banks of Nigeria and Mauritius are shareholders in the Malaysia-based International Islamic Liquidity Management Corp,21 but with Africa currently accounting for less than 3% of global Islamic banking assets, the continent remains the next frontier for Islamic finance.22

THE NEXT WAVE OF OPPORTUNITY: THE HALAL INDUSTRY

Similarly, the halal industry presents Malaysia with excellent opportunities for joint entries into Africa with regional partners in ASEAN such as Singapore and Indonesia. Halal players in food, travel and lifestyle products should begin incorporating Africa into their global expansion strategy, if they have not already, with a view to tap into the fastest growing middle class in the world, dense urban centres and a nearly 30% Muslim population. Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in particular has been hands-on in stimulating more Africa-bound halal exports, hosting a discussion this past July squarely focused on distribution channels on the continent and providing the over 200 industry attendees with contact information on 550 African importers of halal products.23 Through smart partnerships among ASEAN neighbours who can share relationships and combine propositions, the risk and complexity associated with first market entry could be reduced, enabling companies to increase the probability of success in securing a strategic foothold while Africa’s competition barriers are still low.

As the largest exporter of halal goods in the world already, with exports reaching to around $11 billion in 2013,24 Malaysia is well positioned to lead such a charge into Africa. The global halal market is rapidly expanding beyond the traditional confines of the food and beverage space, to include products such as cosmetics, tourism and health products, becoming a more holistic concept. Although Africa currently represents only 15% of this global market, or $153.4 billion in 2010,25 projections for population growth and the expansion of the Islamic faith indicate highly favourable growth drivers ahead for halal and opportunities. The domestic Malaysian halal market is comparatively small at $6 billion in 2010, suggesting that the country will continue to undertake an export-oriented strategy with Africa likely to be one of its most rapidly growing customers going forward.

Over the next few decades, high fertility rates will cause the population of sub-Saharan Africa to grow at a faster rate than any other region globally. The population is expected to double to about 1.9 billion by 2050, representing a staggeringly disproportionate increase of 12% to 20% share of the world’s total population. Moreover, during the course of this population boom, Muslim communities are expected to expand at a rate of 170%, outpacing Christianity at 115%, with Muslim followers increasing from about 248 million to 670 million.26

Halal exporters are aware of these trends and are eager to make inroads into Africa and reap the benefits from riding this pending wave of growth ahead. As Malaysian firms evaluate options for the most ideal points of access into the broader market, the United Arab Emirates is increasingly being viewed as a gateway with immediate access to the Middle East and North Africa. The Halal Industry Development Industry Corporation of Malaysia’s CEO Dato Seri Jamil Bidin remarked last year that “it was natural to look at strategic collaboration with the UAE,” with Malaysia’s role being “a sourcing country… where the product can come certified from Malaysia and then [is] re-exported to countries in Europe and North Africa,” adding “the UAE is strong in trading and we want to leverage that.”27

While Egypt is the largest halal market in North Africa with more than 70 million Muslims, Nigeria is also a key target market with the region’s largest population and consumer base. Nigeria also provides convenient access to several neighbouring West African countries, including Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal and Guinea, all of which are classified as Muslim-majority and continue to present demand for halal foodstuffs.28

THE NEXT WAVE OF OPPORTUNITY: OVERCOMING ENTRY BARRIERS WITH SOUTH AFRICA AS A GATEWAY

On a fully pan-Africa basis, however, it is difficult to paint the opportunity with a broad brush. It remains a fragmented market, with varying sects of Islam bringing their own unique definitions of what it means to be halal, compounded further by differences in income levels, awareness levels, and ethnicities. Several foreign halal players have failed in recent years to establish traction caused by inadequate preparation in adapting and localizing products and packaging. But, this is where Malaysia enjoys a particularly strong competitive advantage by leveraging on its status as a global centre of halal excellence and symbol of quality assurance – a reputation reinforced every time it hosts global industry gatherings such as the MIHAS Expo and World Halal Forum.

Despite the challenges and fragmentation, the common denominators threaded through Africa’s predominantly Muslim communities are rising per capita incomes and import- dependency for food, critical elements of success for Malaysia’s exports. Moving ahead, however, there are signals that this landscape will shift towards a greater presence of local producers in Africa. Although South Africa has a small minority Muslim population representing only 2% of the whole, the country has already emerged as the regional halal industry leader and now also as one of the largest producers worldwide.29

Indeed, with several halal certification bodies, strong pan-Africa distribution capabilities, and a growing bilateral relationships with ASEAN, South Africa presents interesting acquisition and strategic partnership opportunities for Malaysia and its neighbours looking for a local production capability and new sales channels. According to the Trade Commissioner Norhaliza Halid of MATRADE Johannesburg last year, “Consumer preference towards halal products from both Muslim and non-Muslim consumers in the country provides good opportunities for Malaysian manufacturers,” adding that despite the minority Muslim population “60% of all products sold at retail outlets in South Africa are halal certified.” Illustrating the point, twelve Malaysian companies participated last year at South Africa’s 12th Africa‘s Big Seven event, the continent’s largest food and beverages industry trade exhibition, and generated RM 21.9 million worth of sales.30 Already a lucrative opportunity for food and beverage players, the opportunity will be even more appealing to Malaysia once greater convergence occurs with the Islamic financial services industry, perhaps if incentives are given to halal manufacturers to maintain a Shari’a compliance balance sheet.

CONCLUSION

While the ASEAN-Africa nexus is still in nascent stages, Malaysia stands out as a trail-blazer into new markets and industries. At times Africa can be perceived as a more complicated option when compared to other immediate opportunities within Asia Pacific markets where Malaysia has greater general awareness. Nevertheless, Africa’s upside potential is becoming too great for many to ignore. Africa is rising and its nations are turning to Asia for partners in development, successfully appealing to those who appreciate the value in undertaking patient and long-term expansion strategies in the world’s fastest growing region. With Malaysia aiming to achieve first-world status by 2020, it is not only a growing source of investment, but a development showcase as well for what the once mislabelled “hopeless” continent is now set out to achieve in its own right in the coming decades.

About the author:
*1 Robert MacPherson is an adjunct researcher at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies and Vice President at Reciprocus International, a global M&A advisory boutique headquartered in Singapore. Email: Robert MacPherson <robert@reciprocus.com>.

Source:
This article was published by ISEAS as ISEAS Perspective 2015 Number 54 (PDF)

Notes:
2 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia (19 April 2015), Press Release on the Working Visit of Yab Prime Minister of Malaysia to Bandung, Indonesia: http://www.kln.gov.my/web/guest/press-release/- /asset_publisher/t3pS/content/press-release-on-the-working-visit-of-yab-prime-minister-of-malaysia-to- bandung-indonesia-siaran-akhbar-lawatan-kerja-yab-perdana-menteri-ke-bandung- indonesia?redirect=%2Fweb%2Fguest%2Fpress-release
3 Malaysia Prime Minister’s Department (10 May 2005), South-South Cooperation – The Way Forward: http://www.epu.gov.my/documents/10124/3ed0f961-70ff-49b2-b927-4dcb3e29f962
4Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia, Malaysian Technical Cooperation Programme (MTCP): http://www.kln.gov.my/web/guest/malaysian-technical-cooperation-programme
5 Reuters (25 march 2013), Malaysia, not China, is Asia’s top investor in Africa: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/malaysia-africa-idUSL5N0CH2QY20130325
6 United Nations, Conference on Trade and Development (2013), World Investment Report 2013: http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2013_en.pdf
7 World Bank via Trading Economics Portal (2013), Merchandise imports from developing economies in Sub- Saharan Africa in Malaysia: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/merchandise-imports-from- developing-economies-in-sub-saharan-africa-percent-of-total-merchandise-imports-wb-data.html
8 United Nations Statistics Division (July 2014), World Exports by provenance and destination: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/imts/tables/Table41-2014-Jul.xls
9 World Bank (Accessed 29 August 2015), Imports of goods and services (BoP, current US$): http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BM.GSR.GNFS.CD
10 World Bank (Accessed 29 August 2015), Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$): http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.GNFS.CD
11 The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa (26 August 2013): Statement by President Zuma, at the Joint Press Conference following the Bilateral Meeting with Prime Minister of the Federation of Malaysia, Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak, in Putrajaya: http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/pebble.asp?relid=15974&t=79
12 Trade Map (Accessed 29 August 2015), List of importing markets for the product exported by Malaysia in 2014 / List of supplying markets for the product imported by Malaysia in 2014: http://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry.aspx
13 High Commission of Malaysia in Nairobi (2015), Meru International Investment Conference and Official Opening of Kanjai-Miathene-Mikinduri Road: http://www.kln.gov.my/web/ken_nairobi/n2015/- /asset_publisher/ME2g/blog/meru-international-investment-conference-and-official-opening-of-kanjai- miathene-mikinduri-road?redirect=%2Fweb%2Fken_nairobi%2Fn2015
14 Pacific Inter-Link Corporate Website (July 2015): http://www.pacificinter-link.com.my/contact.html
15 UNESCO (2012), Opportunities lost: The impact of grade repetition and early school leaving: http://www.uis.unesco.org/Education/Documents/ged-2012-en.pdf
16 US-China Education Review, An Exploration of African Students in Malaysia: http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED529386.pdf
17United Nations Office of Special Adviser on Africa (2013) Infrastructure Development Within the Context of Africa’s Cooperation with New and Emerging Development Partners: http://www.nepad.org/sites/default/files/Role%20of%20Emerging%20Partners%20in%20Infrastructure%20Dev elopment.pdf
18 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia (6 January 2012), Press Release Working Visit to South Africa by Y.A.B. Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak Prime Minister, 7-8 January 2012: https://www.kln.gov.my/archive/content.php?t=3&articleId=1880852
19 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia (2015), Bilateral Diplomacy Africa: http://www.kln.gov.my/web/guest/bd-africa-bd
20 Reuters (17 March 2015), Africa builds an appetite for Islamic Finance, says IDB Unit: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/17/sukuk-africa-idUSL6N0WJ25B20150317
21 Financial Times (21 May 2014), Islamic finance to get Africa boost: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond- brics/2014/05/21/islamic-finance-to-get-africa-boost-with-new-bond-issues/
22 Malaysia International Islamic Finance Centre (11 February 2015), Africa the next frontier for Islamic Finance: http://www.mifc.com/index.php?ch=28&pg=72&ac=112&bb=uploadpdf
23 Antara News (7 July 2015), Ministry encourages Indonesian halal products to enter Aspasaf market: http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/99439/ministry-encourages-indonesian-halal-products-to-enter-aspasaf- market
24 Ankush Chibber (24 February 2014), Malaysia to use UAE as gateway to halal markets in Africa, Europe: http://www.foodnavigator.com/Regions/Middle-East/Malaysia-to-use-UAE-as-gateway-to-halal-markets-in- Africa-Europe
25 Edbiz Consulting (2013), Global Islamic Report 2013: http://www.gifr.net/gifr2013/ch_13.PDF
26 Pew Research Centre (2 April 2015), The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010- 2050. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/sub-saharan-africa/
27 Ankush Chibber (24 February 2014), Malaysia to use UAE as gateway to halal markets in Africa, Europe: http://www.foodnavigator.com/Regions/Middle-East/Malaysia-to-use-UAE-as-gateway-to-halal-markets-in- Africa-Europe
28 The Government of Canada (2011), The Global Halal Food Market: http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/industry- markets-and-trade/statistics-and-market-information/by-region/global/global-halal-food- market/?id=1410083148808
29 Islam Today (30 July 2012), South Africa Emerges as Halal Industry Leader: http://en.islamtoday.net/artshow-233-4501.htm
30 MATRADE Johannesburg (8 July 2014), Sales Worth RM21.9 Million Register at Trade Expo in South Africa: http://mymatrade.dev.skali.net/documents/12582/1610/Halal+Industry+in+South+Africa.pdf/f9294e4d-63e2- 45c5-a187-f70a1c97283c

By Jared Ferrie

With the government hospital shut down, a facility run by Médecins Sans Frontières is now the only place for people needing urgent trauma care to be treated in Kunduz, which was taken by the Taliban on Monday. Afghan forces have been battling the insurgents to regain control of the northern city of about 300,000 people, and residents are caught in the middle.

Doctors are already struggling to treat an influx of wounded civilians while casualties are expected to rise as fighting continues between Afghan government forces and the Taliban in Kunduz, which is the first provincial capital to fall to the insurgent group since it was ousted from power in 2001.

“The MSF hospital is completely overwhelmed and wounded continue to arrive,” said the charity’s operational coordinator, Renzo Fricke. “With the hospital reaching its limit and fighting continuing, we are worried about being able to cope with any new influxes of wounded.”

Fricke told IRIN that MSF had treated more than 250 patients since Monday morning, including 53 children. Most patients suffered gunshot wounds and 66 arrived in critical condition.

Two medical staff with the International Committee of the Red Cross have been working “around the clock” at the MSF hospital, which is running low on medical supplies, ICRC spokeswoman Neha Thakkar told IRIN.

“As the ICRC endeavours to deliver those medical supplies, we urge all parties to the conflict to respect international humanitarian law that requires them to not target civilian lives and property,” she said.

Civilians in the crossfire

So far, the Taliban fighters have not “demonstrated violence against civilians”, said Lola Cecchinel, head of research at ATR, a Kabul-based consulting company. They have put civilians in danger, however, by hiding in people’s houses “to blend in with the civilian population”, Amnesty International said in a statement citing reports from local residents.

Casualties are likely to increase as Afghan and foreign forces launch an assault to take back the city, Cecchinel told IRIN. She said the Taliban are likely to be driven from Kunduz, but their successful offensive has been “a major blow for the central state”.

The Taliban took control of Kunduz as President Ashraf Ghani marked his first year in office yesterday, and he has come under fire from MPs who called for his resignation in a televised session of parliament today. They accused him of mishandling the battle for control over the city.

In a statement released Tuesday, Ghani accused the Taliban of using civilians as human shields and said his government “does not want the clearing operations to cause any civilian casualties in Kunduz city”. Ghani said he had dispatched reinforcements to Kunduz, including special forces.

Too little, too late?

Those measures have come too late, according to some analysts. They argue that Ghani failed to implement an effective strategy to take back parts of Kunduz Province that were controlled by the Taliban and provide enough security to protect the provincial capital.

“Although Kunduz was among the priority provinces he listed when he arrived in office, there has been little effort to tackle the most pressing issues there: lack of leadership, poor governance structures, and power in the hands of warlords,” said Cecchinel.

Many have criticised Ghani for activating militia groups this year in an attempt to impose government authority in the province. Residents have told IRIN that militia members committed abuses including assaulting and extorting civilians, and stealing their property.

“Instead of investing in the state forces in times of crisis, the government keeps on supporting armed groups with little or no loyalty to the state, who abuse the population with impunity and further disintegrate the authority of the state,” said Cecchinel.

America’s dilemma

In addition to creating problems for Ghani, the takeover of Kunduz poses a problem for the United States, which led an invasion in 2001 that pushed the Taliban from power. Kunduz was one of the last cities to fall to US and Afghan fighters in 2001, and the US has now been drawn into battle there again despite having scaled back its military presence in Afghanistan as part of a plan to withdraw almost all of its troops by next year.

The Pentagon said it had carried out an airstrike Tuesday on Taliban fighters who were moving towards the airport where Afghan and US soldiers were stationed.

The fall of Kunduz raises questions about the ability of Afghan security forces to fight the Taliban without heavy US backing.

“The situation is a setback for Afghan forces,” said Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook in a statement, but he added that the US “has confidence” in Afghanistan’s military.

That confidence will be put to the test in the coming days, as the Taliban appear determined to hold on to Kunduz for as long as they can – which is bad news for the city’s residents, many of whom are likely to fall victim to the violence.

After the National Women’s Futsal team captain, Nilufar Ardalan, was denied leaving the country to participate in the Asian Championships 2015 because her husband refused to give her permission to leave the country, negative reactions to the legal requirement of a husband’s permission for Iranian women seeking to travel abroad continues to make headlines.

Shahindokht Molaverdi, President Rohani’s deputy for women’s and family affairs says there is persistent public protest against this law and her office is making every effort to reform the law.

ISNA reports that Molaverdi said on Wednesday September 30 that she has received over a thousand emails regarding the law obliging women to obtain permission from their husbands to leave the country

The regulation is written based on the Article 18 of Iran’s Passport Law which was passed in 1973. According to the legislation, married women travelling abroad need to file a signed permission from their husband at Official Documents Registry. The same article however does allow women to obtain permission directly from the prosecutor’s office in special situations such as pilgrimage trips.

Molaverdi stressed that the legislation is very outdated and the situation of Iranian women had changed considerably from 1973.

She added that her office is seriously pursuing channels to reform this legislation and until then they will also work closely with women in particular situations to avail them of all legal ways of bypassing this outdated law.

While Nilufar Ardalan did not manage to accompany her team to the championship games in Malaysia, Iran’s women’s futsal team won the championships and were welcomed back to the country by their captain. Ardalan’s story received widespread attention in social media and many Iranians have called for change in the legislation.

A public petition was also rendered to the office of Molaverdi expressing public demand for rescinding this law.