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Paul Ryan’s 7 Terrible Ideas – OpEd

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Yesterday, the new Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, summed up his House Republican agenda – vowing to pursue legislation that would frame a stark choice for voters in 2016.

“Our No. 1 goal for the next year is to put together a complete alternative to the left’s agenda,” he said.

Despite the speech’s sweeping oratory and careful stagecraft, Ryan clings to seven dumb ideas that are also cropping up among Republican presidential candidates.

Here they are, and here’s why they’re dumb:

1. Reduce the top income-tax rate to 25% from the current 39%.  A terrible idea.  It’s a huge windfall to the rich at a time when the rich already take home a larger share of total income that at any time since the 1920s.

2. Cut corporate taxes to 25% from the current 35%.  Another bad idea.  A giant sop to corporations, the largest of which are already socking away $2.1 trillion in foreign tax shelters.

3. Slash spending on domestic programs like food stamps and education for poor districts.  What?!  Already 22% of the nation’s children are in poverty; these cuts would only make things worse.

4. Turn Medicaid and other federal programs for the poor into block grants for the states, and let the states decide how to allocate them.  In other words, give Republican state legislatures and governors slush funds to do with as they wish.

5. Turn Medicare into vouchers that don’t keep up with increases in healthcare costs.  In effect cutting Medicare for the elderly.  Another awful idea.

6.  Deal with rising Social Security costs by raising the retirement age for Social Security.  Bad!  This would make Social Security even more regressive, since the poor don’t live nearly as long as the rich.

7. Finally, let the minimum wage continue to decline as inflation eats it away.  Wrong again.  Low wage workers need a higher minimum wage.

These 7 ideas will harm most Americans.  Ryan is wrong.


Electric Cars: Batteries With Brains

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The battery is the heart of the electric car. Fraunhofer researchers have developed an energy storage device which is significantly more cost-effective over the entire life cycle in comparison with previous models. If one of the more than one hundred battery cells is defective, it can be replaced easily. Until now, the entire battery had to be replaced.

The core of electric cars are their batteries. So far, these have been monolithic blocks in which the individual battery cells as well as the necessary technology have been housed. All individual cells should theoretically be able to save the same amount of energy. In practice, though, this is somewhat different: due to production reasons, their capacities vary. This is problematic, since the cells are connected in series. The entire battery is therefore only as strong as its weakest cell. If this cell is “empty”, the remaining energy in the other battery cells does not help – the car has to be recharged.

For that reason, manufacturers presort and install cells of a similar capacity into a battery. Since some cells are sorted out as a result of this process, and this pushes the price of the batteries up. Another shortcoming is that when a cell is defective, the vehicle stops functioning. That means that the entire energy storage device has to be replaced.

Independent battery cells communicate with each other

Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA in Stuttgart have now created an alternative. “Our modular battery system solves these problems,” said Dr. Kai Pfeiffer, Group Manager at the IPA.

The trick: each battery cell has its own built-in microcontroller that records relevant physical parameters, such as the temperature and the state of charge of the cell. As a result, each cell knows what condition it is in. The cells “talk” to each other via the existing power wiring between battery cells. This is known as power-line communication. They can also communicate with other devices, such as the on-board computer, which uses the data from the cells to calculate how much remaining energy the entire battery still has, the so called state of charge.

Greater range

If a cell is empty, but the others still have energy stored, the car does not have to stop, like it did before. Rather, the empty battery cell simply decouples from the cluster, acting like a current by-pass. The others continue to deliver energy. “Depending on the cell quality, we can therefore increase the range by at least four percent,” explained Pfeiffer.“ Over time, this effect is amplified: in the case of an old battery, and if the empty cells are replaced, it is conceivable that a range up to ten percent higher can be achieved”.

Since one cell with lower capacity hardly affects the overall range of a car, the manufacturers no longer need to pre-sort it. This should significantly reduce costs. In addition, the capacities of the cells adapt to each other over time. This is because the ones that can store less energy are switched off earlier. The cells therefore run longer and, as a result, faster: their capacity decreases. And if a battery cell malfunctions, it is not necessary to bring the vehicle to the workshop. Since the car has more than one hundred cells, it does not depend on any individual one. And if the driver decides in favor of a repair, it is sufficient to merely replace the single cell instead of the entire battery.

The researchers have already developed a prototype of the battery cell. The challenge is now to miniaturize the electronics and embed them into cells. “We want it to cost less than a euro,” Pfeiffer said. Part of the development process is being conducted in the EU project “3Ccar”.

Why The San Bernardino Shooting Is Rare Among Mass Shootings

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The shooting in San Bernardino, California marked the 355th mass shooting in the United States in less than as many days in 2015. As details emerge regarding the events, it is clear that these types of crimes are morphing and not abating.

“Shootings involving mission-oriented females may be a new threshold which should be concerning to all of us, and the incident in San Bernardino might just be a hybrid, and a harbinger, of shootings to come,” said Mary Ellen O’Toole, PhD, Director, Forensic Science Program, George Mason University and Editor-in-Chief of Violence and Gender, a peer-reviewed journal published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers.

A “hybrid” means a spinoff from other cases of mass murder. “Like a cancer,” said Dr. O’Toole, “this crime is moving and growing in insidious ways, and is resistant to ‘treatment.'”

As described in the article “The Mission-Oriented Shooter: A New Type of Mass Killer,” a mission-oriented shooter is a person whose mission is to kill as many people as possible, or to achieve maximum lethality. These particular crimes are well planned and can involve months and even years of preparation.

In contrast to more recent mass shootings, the one that took place in San Bernardino is the first since Columbine to involve more than one of these types of shooters and, perhaps more surprisingly, the first to have involved a female shooter.

“Guns, clearly, are the elephant in the room,” said Dr. O’Toole. “But in addition, from a behavioral perspective, the ‘character’ and morality of people in this country appears to be seriously degrading. The lack of compassion, lack of guilt and empathy, an embrace of violence as a method to handle world problems, and a generalized world hatred push those people towards guns to carry out their desire for human destruction.”

“We at The Avielle Foundation are horrified and, honestly, sick of expressing our infinite heartbreak,” said Jeremy Richman, PhD, Founder and Director of The Avielle Foundation, of which Violence and Gender is the official journal, and the mission of which is to prevent violence by fostering brain science research, community engagement, and education.

“We must actively pursue solutions to preventing violence,” said Richman, adding, “We need to be comfortable advocating for our own brain health and that of our loved ones. How many more innocent people have to die, how many bright lives will be destroyed, how many more families will forever grieve before an overwhelming tide of support occurs to make change? We must push for brain health advocacy and research. We are all responsible for meaningful change.”

Muslims Say They Know How To Reform Islam And Now Is Time To Actually Do It

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Islam needs a “reformation” that can only be achieved by Muslims speaking out against extremism and promoting human rights, said a panel of Muslim public figures on Thursday.

“If Muslim minorities in non-Muslim countries are to be protected, we must demand the protection of non-Muslims within Muslim-majority countries,” said Farahnaz Ispahani, former member of the Pakistani Parliament, at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C. on Thursday.

Ispahani was part of a panel of Muslims speaking out against ISIS and Islamist extremism. The panel agreed that Muslims and Western democratic countries must not deny that Islamist extremism is behind acts of terrorism and human rights abuses worldwide, but rather work to counter that ideology.

“As Islamic extremists gain power and rule, human rights abuses including oppression of women, homosexuals, and religious minorities, as well as governmental tyranny, sectarian warfare, and bigotry inherent in Sharia law come to the fore,” Ispahani said.

Muslims should promote “modern pluralistic values” and “human rights” as established by the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights, she added.

“Right now there is no clear ideological campaign to fight ISIS and to fight Islamism.”

“We have all heard ‘Where are the Muslim voices?’” that are speaking out against ISIS, she noted, adding that “here we are, and we have others like us.”

While some have wrongly blamed all Muslims for Islamist terrorism, members of the D.C. panel said, others have wrongly failed to make any mention of Islam in condemning such acts.

“Too much deflection has been happening on this issue,” said Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, founder and president of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy. Muslims must acknowledge the fact that radical Islam has fueled human rights abuses and must push for a reformation that involves a “separation of mosque and state” with religious pluralism and respect for human rights, he said.

When Islamist extremists commit acts of violence, Muslims must resist the temptation to simply say the extremists “are not Muslims,” emphasized Naser Khader, a member of the Parliament in Denmark of the Conservative People’s Party. Simply denying that the extremists are true believers excuses the moderates from having to advocate for reform in Islam, he explained.

“We cannot say that the Islamic State are not Muslims. That is what they call themselves,” he said. ISIS has a state built on a “jihadist vision of Islam,” he said, murdering and enslaving other people “with the Koran in their hands.”

“If we the Muslims do not face the problem of violence that links to Islam in our time, how will we ever succeed in ripping Islam out of the hands of these destructive powers and lift our religion into the 21st century?” he asked.

The rights of women and religious minorities in particular should be central to an Islamic reformation, the panel insisted.

Many Islamists, including ISIS, hold centuries-old standards for women that ignore “progressive changes” that have happened since then, the panelists said. They argued that misogyny is rampant in these Islamist sects, which insist upon segregation of women at mosques and schools and the role of a woman being only to fulfill a man’s needs.

Islamist literature is “full of statements” against women’s rights, Ispahani said.

The Islamist concept of jihad also needs to be refuted, said journalist Asra Nomani.

Chapter 9 verse 5 of the Koran instructs to “kill the Mushrikun,” or those who equate someone else with God, she explained. ISIS members used this word when they beheaded 21 Coptic Christians in Libya in February.

“Common sense prevails that that is both unethical, immoral, and illegal,” she insisted, adding that critical thinking will show that verse was from the 7th century when Mohammed was surrounded by enemies intent upon destroying him.

“It is not a timeless verse that exists forever until today,” she said. “We now reject this literal reading so that it cannot be used any more as a sanction for murder.”

“Our jihad is a struggle for reformation,” she continued. “We are in a struggle for the future of our world…it is a struggle of ideology.”

Indonesia’s Submarines Procurement Plan: Spearheading Jakarta’s Maritime Ambition? – Analysis

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Indonesia plans to acquire more submarines to boost its defence capability. Before doing so, it needs to revamp its current strategic policy guidelines as well as enhance naval operational support.

By Adhi Priamarizki, Fitri Bintang Timur and Keoni Indrabayu Marzuki*

Indonesia’s Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu recently announced his plan to acquire more submarines to strengthen the country’s maritime defence capability. He claimed that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) supports his plan to procure brand new submarines, rather than second-hand ones. The Indonesian Navy (TNI AL) initially ordered six submarines (three Chang Bogo-class from South Korea and three Kilo-class from Russia).

Having operated German-made Type-209 (Cakra-Class) submarines for more than three decades, Indonesia is no stranger to the submarine platform. During the Sukarno era, the Indonesian Navy had 14 Soviet Union Whiskey-class submarines which were in service until the 1970s. The rise of the army-centric and West-leaning New Order regime under Suharto contributed significantly to ending the service of these submarines.

Necessity versus ability

By the end of the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme in 2024, TNI AL aims to become a green-water navy. The MEF plan requires the Indonesian Navy to operate at least 10 submarines, later revised to 12. Without a proper strategic guideline it will be difficult for the country to establish a coherent procurement plan. The country’s last defence white paper was published in 2008, while the new one, after delays, is supposed to be issued this year.

President Jokowi’s Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) aims to transform the army-centric paradigm to a maritime-focused strategy. However, the delay in translating the GMF into policy guidelines, especially for the defence sector, created doubt about the concept’s centrality as a strategic guidance. The 2008 White Paper gave no clear guidelines on the country’s geopolitical and geostrategic perception nor any organised procurement plans.

Besides security Indonesia’s plan for submarine procurement is to obviate increasing acquisition costs in the future and meet its aspiration to operate and master cutting-edge technology. Nonetheless, the problematic joint-production of one Chang Bogo submarine between Korean Daewoo Shipbuilding DSME and Indonesian PT PAL taught it a bitter lesson of the sluggish pace of technology transfer due to limited capability to absorb the transferred knowledge and the vendor’s reluctance to transfer it. Sending Indonesian engineers from PT PAL to South Korea was not enough, as the company still needs to build a facility which is capable of producing 2,000 tonnes submarine.

Securing Indonesian archipelagic waters’ choke points and strategic straits are crucial for the GMF’s efficacy. Based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982, Indonesia has the sovereignty of its waters but also must allow the passage of other countries’ naval and/or civilian ships. Complying with the demand of the International Maritime Organisation, Indonesia proposed Archipelagic Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs, or Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia – ALKI) through three straits, namely the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok Straits.

Building a strong maritime force is necessary to safeguard these ALKI routes. In addition, acquiring sophisticated maritime platforms from countries which do not use ALKI frequently, such as Russia, is considered prudent due to their low interest in the passage, and its alignment with Indonesia’s current defence budget austerity.

Potential housekeeping issues

The Indonesian Navy has also to deal with practical housekeeping issues.

Firstly, operating submarines requires technology-proficient and experienced officers. Having only two submarines at its disposal severely limits training opportunities. It is essential for the Indonesian Navy to increase its capacity before the new submarines arrive.

Secondly, establishing sufficient maintenance capability and logistic support are necessary to ensure these platforms’ readiness. Some issues have appeared during the current operation of Type-209 submarines, such as high maintenance costs and inadequate operational budget. Failing to boost local defence industry capability for maintenance and logistic support will place the submarine fleet in the vicious circle of dependency on foreign logistic support.

Thirdly, as submarine is one of the navy’s spearhead platforms, it may spark inter-service rivalry. There is a probability that these new cutting-edge platforms will stimulate envy in other services. Creating a fair, transparent and proper procurement plan supported by sound strategic policy is required to avoid unnecessary friction.

Convergence of foreign and defence policies?

Indonesia’s aspiration to procure submarines signifies its ambition to be recognised as a rising maritime power in accordance with the GMF doctrine. In a theatre of conflict, submarine is generally used as a means to conduct stealthy siege upon enemy fleets, raid commercial shipping lines or deny enemy ships from encroaching sovereign maritime boundaries.

The absence of clear strategic guidelines, however, makes it difficult to estimate its role in peace time. Noting the pillars of GMF – especially the protection of marine resources and maritime diplomacy – there is a high probability that submarines will be utilised for safeguarding its ALKI; for surveillance purposes – especially in border areas where illegal territorial breach are common, and potential flash-point areas are located, such as the Natuna Sea – and to enforce Indonesia’s sovereignty.

Juxtaposing Indonesia’s intention to procure submarines with its foreign policy goals suggests an interesting convergence between its defence and foreign policy. Several policies such as the controversial execution of convicted drug traffickers and scuttling of illegal fishing fleets, suggest that sovereignty has been the highlight of Indonesia’s foreign policy under President Widodo.

The convergence can be traced back to Sukarno’s 1963 principle of Trisakti that stressed Indonesia’s ability to be independent, and Jokowi’s concept of Berdikari (literally standing on one’s own feet) which he mentioned during the presidential campaign in 2014. Under President Jokowi’s leadership, the concept is incorporated not only in foreign policy, but also around its defence policies.

Such convergence would be beneficial for Indonesia’s foreign policy posture and, to a larger extent, for fulfilling its recent ambition to become a global maritime power. However, maintaining such convergence will be difficult as economic and domestic turbulences have not ceased.

*Adhi Priamarizki is a PhD student at Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Fitri Bintang Timur is a PhD candidate at Cranfield University, United Kingdom and Keoni Marzuki is a Research Analyst at the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Shi’ite Militias In Syria And Iraq: Proliferating The Sectarian Conflict – Analysis

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Shi’ite militias represent important stakeholders in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq who proliferate the sectarian bloodshed in the region. Despite their jihad narrative, their large fighter mobilization and massacring of Sunni civilians, they remain unnoticed and unaccountable.

By Aida Mihaela Arosoaie*

In Syria, Shi’ite militias are fighting alongside Bashar alAssad’s army, while in Iraq they represent the core of the force against ISIS. Whereas the militias in Iraq became prominent on the battlefield after the US-led invasion in 2003, the militias in Syria are a relatively new phenomenon which emerged after the civil war broke out in 2011. Most of militias are subgroups and splinters of major Shi’ite groups in Iraq and Lebanon or were founded by Iran’s Quds Forces.

These militias represent a threat to the stability of the Middle East as they proliferate the sectarian conflict in the region. The war in Syria and the fight against ISIS initiated an unprecedented Shi’ite mobilization akin to the Sunni mobilization in Afghanistan during the 1980s. Militias recruit individuals based on a Shi’ite jihad narrative which has sectarian contours. Moreover, in both countries Shi’ite militias systematically massacre Sunni civilians. Unaccountable and ignored, these militias perpetuate the sectarian conflict in the Middle East.

The background of the Shi’ite militias

In Syria, apart from small indigenous groups, the bulk of Assad’s Shi’ite militant auxiliaries, counting around 40,000 people, is drawn primarily from Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Most of the groups are either subgroups or splinters of major Iraqi Shi’ite militias, such as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), the Badr Organization (BO), Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), Promised Day Brigades (PDB), Iraqi Hezbollah etc. Lebanese Hezbollah and its subgroups are also fighting, as well as other smaller outfits whose creation was commanded by Iran’s Quds Forces.

In Iraq, the Shi’ite militias are indigenous and resemble the Lebanese Hezbollah model, wherein they penetrated the Iraqi political and military establishments. Currently, most of the Shi’ite militias are a part of Hashd al-Shabi (PMU), an Iraqi army-affiliated unit specially created to combat ISIS. The Shi’ite militias in the PMU are either the “Shrine Militias” – the perceived guardians of the Shi’ite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala – or the Iranian-backed militias that are associated with terrorist movements. The latter category includes the most powerful Shi’ite militias in the region, such as BO, AAH, KH, PDB etc.

In both Syria and Iraq, the imaginary battlecry employed by these militias is clearly sectarian. Sometimes they are directly led by clerics, such as Muqtada al-Sadr, the Iraqi cleric who formed his first militant group in 2003. Also, most of their names, banners and slogans have a distinctive Shi’ite character. There is a very close relation between the Shi’ite clergy and the Shi’ite militias, wherein the former are part of the recruitment channel, often visit the battlefields to boost the morale of the fighters and preach the necessity of a sectarian fight.

The narrative of Shi’ite jihad

In both countries, the justifications provided for the existence of such groups evolve around the narrative of Shi’ite jihad. Two recurrent motifs of the recruitment rhetoric represents the defence of shrines and the perceived humiliation of the Shi’ites at the hands of Sunnis. The most popular media of recruitment are slogans, posters and songs.

In Syria, the Sayyeda Zainab shrine located in Southern Damascus is fundamental to the recruitment. The slogan “Laybak ya Zainab” (At your service, O Zainab) and songs such as “Ya Zainab” were often heard on the battlefield or at funerals of Shi’ite fighters. In both countries, posters of shrines along with insignias of groups and telephone numbers have been widely posted online on websites and social media platforms. One popular recruitment-oriented song is “Ashat al-Muqawama” by singer Delfi, whose chorus reads “Ashat al-Muqawama, Shia al-Muqawama” (Long live the resistance, the Shi’ite resistance).

Over 60,000 Shi’ite fighters are reported to have been recruited to fight in Syria and Iraq. This situation is reminiscent of the Sunni mobilization in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Prominent Shi’ite clerical figures and politicians, such as Iranian cleric Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, play an important role in the recruitment as they publicly called upon Shi’ites to take up arms. This provides the mobilization an institutional status which is intended to normalise the phenomenon.

Most recruitment for the fighting in both Syria and Iraq is publicly carried out on the internet. Websites such as valiamr.com or ghobe.ir offer to enlist volunteers for fighting in Syria and groups on social media widely advertise them. For instance, Lebanese Hezbollah posted on its Facebook page a picture with the dome of the Sayyeda Zainab shrine and the message “Zainab, we are all your Abbas”, embedding in the image a phone number and the website valiamr.com. The same recruitment techniques have been used by the AAH, the Badr Organization and Iran-affiliated groups which operate in Syria under the name of Liwa Abu Fadl al-Abbas.

Sectarian massacres

In both countries, Shi’ite militias set a trend consisting of systematically massacring Sunni civilians following every important Shi’ite victory on the battlefield. In most cases, the massacres included slaughtering, torturing and sexual violence.

In Syria, Shi’ite militias carried out their first massacre on 8 October 2013 in Ath-Thyabbya. The event, which lasted for 13 days, was deemed a sectarian cleansing campaign, and culminated with the killing and forced disappearance of 13 families. Other massacres were carried out in villages surrounding Aleppo such as Rasm an-Nafl, Al-Malkiya and Al-Mazr, which resulted in the killing of 192, 69 and 95 civilians respectively.

In Iraq, one example represents the Diyala Province-based village Barwana, where Shi’ite militias executed 77 Sunni villagers. Also, after recapturing Tikrit from ISIS in April 2015, Shi’ite militias abducted around 200 Sunni residents from Al-Dur, of which 160 remain unaccounted. The looting of Al-Dur was also marked by the demolishing and torching of 950 houses, and the damaging of 95 shops.

Unnoticed stakeholders

Shi’ite militias in both Syria and Iraq are one of the most important stakeholders in the current conflicts. However, unlike ISIS or the extremist Syrian opposition, these militias are not subject to public international attention or demands of accountability. Nevertheless, their recruitment narrative of jihad is sectarian in nature and they also engage in systematic massacres of Sunni civilians. No doubt, these militias play an equally important role in the proliferation of the sectarian conflict in the Middle East.

*Aida Mihaela Arosoaie is a Research Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, a component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

IMF’s Reserve Currencies Need The Renminbi – OpEd

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Adding the renminbi in the IMF’s basket is the first step in opening up the world’s elite reserve currencies to emerging economies.

Currently, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) basket of major reserve currencies has only four members: the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. But things are about to change now as the IMF’s Board has accepted the membership of China’s renminbi in its elite basket.

The renminbi will be the first emerging-economy currency to join the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. Indeed, the IMF’s endorsement marks the most critical change to the basket since its creation almost half a century ago.

Nevertheless, some critics argue that adding the yuan to the IMF reserve currency basket would be a terrible mistake. They claim that its inclusion would not provide a significant boost to the currency’s internationalization and that it will crash the SDR basket.

They are wrong; on both counts.

Marginal short-term, huge long-term impact

The first argument is that the gains of the renminbi inclusion would be marginal, some US$40 billion in the next few years in the more than US$10 trillion of global reserves. That estimate is grossly flawed, however.

The inclusion of the yuan will first trigger the re-weighting of the IMF basket because it will now have five rather than just four currencies.

Currently, the basket is valued at US$280 billion and is dominated by the US dollar and the euro, which together account for four-fifths of the total. If the yuan’s initial weight would be the anticipated 10-14 percent, it would be prudent to expect a shift of US$50 billion in the yuan assets starting between 2016 and 2020.

But that’s not the full story.

Next, public investors — central banks, reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds — are likely to follow suit.

If China’s current share of global reserves is around one percent and the IMF decision could trigger another four percent that alone would translate to some US$350 billion in renminbi assets by 2020.

Finally, private institutional and individual investors would follow in the footprints.

If their allocations would rise to just one percent in the next half a decade, it would unleash US$200 billion into yuan assets by 2020.

When the old Bretton Woods system and the associated dollar hegemony evolved after World War II, the US economy accounted for almost half of world GDP. Today, its share is a fifth. Unlike then, the US economy now also suffers from twin deficits, secular stagnation and a debt burden exceeding the size of its economy.

SDR needs emerging-economy currencies

Meanwhile, China, which still dominates a third of global growth, has no role in the IMF basket. Instead, that elite basket has been dominated by US dollar (45 percent), the euro (36 percent), the pound (10 percent) and the yen (9 percent) — even though these currency economies no longer fuel the world economy.

What about public investors? Here, the status quo is even worse. Before the global crisis, advanced economies dominated most global reserves.

Today, that role belongs to emerging economies. Nevertheless, US dollar (62 percent), the euro (20 percent) and other advanced-economy currencies dominate a whopping 96 percent of the allocated foreign exchange reserves.

In the light of these realities, the economic reasons for including the yuan in the IMF basket are compelling, while the risks of not doing so are becoming overwhelming. It is time for the world’s currencies to look (just a bit) more like the people that the multilateral financial organizations claim to represent.

The original, slightly shorter version was released by Shanghai Daily on December 2, 2015, and was published by DifferenceGroup.net

Spain’s Frigate ‘Canarias’ Rescues 286 Migrants

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The Spanish Navy frigate “Canarias”, currently deployed on the European Union EUNAVFOR SOPHIA mission, rescued 286 people trying to reach Europe on board a wooden vessel of only 15 meters in length.

In the early hours of December 3, the frigate “Canarias” received a call from the Maritime Rescue Centre in Rome reporting the reception of a mayday call referring to a vessel fully laden with people that was adrift. Shortly afterwards, the European command of the operation also reported another vessel with a large number of migrants on board. This situation was repeated up to a total of seven times.

The “Canarias” dispatched its two inflatable boats and began to help the migrants. In a little over three hours, all the migrants – from various countries, including Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Morocco, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Mali – were rescued.

Following this operation, the evidence team from the “Canarias” boarded the vessel to collect evidence and subsequently sank the boat after deciding it was no longer fit for service. The lower deck was almost entirely flooded and it was a hazard to other boats in the area. Sinking this boat also contributes to weakening the business model adopted by people traffickers as it denies them the opportunity to reuse it in the future.

By collecting evidence, the servicemen who comprise Operation SOPHIA gain more precise knowledge of the modus operandi adopted by the mafias engaged in people trafficking on boats that are poorly equipped to deal with the harsh weather conditions that can be experienced in the Mediterranean.

This action brings the total number of people rescued by the “Canarias” in the Mediterranean since it joined Operation SOPHIA on October 5 to 915.


China’s Carbon Trading Pilot Programs Are Flawed – Analysis

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By Wang Yan*

As China prepares to launch a nationwide carbon cap-and-trade program to try to slow climate change, experts are warning of a long list of flaws in seven pilot programs that are already operating throughout the country.

Major issues ahead of the planned 2017 launch of a national carbon trading program include a lack of openness, transparency and fairness; a flawed system of allowance allocation which does not reflect real industry conditions; and an inadequate monitoring, verification and reporting system.

Inconsistencies in the existing pilot programs have manifested in wildly varying prices. During a survey earlier this year (2015), prices for carbon allowances were found to be five times more expensive in one of the markets than in one of the others.

A statement on climate change issued by Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama on September 25 was hailed as a breakthrough following years of dormancy of UN climate talks.

China’s cap-and-trade program, once established, will set a maximum amount of climate-changing carbon dioxide that can be released every year. It will force firms to buy or sell allowances to meet their emissions limits, providing a monetary incentive for them to reduce emissions.

“The recent joint announcement strengthens the common ground shared by both sides on climate change and may make them a model for other developed and developing nations to follow,” said Teng Fei from Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy during a recent interview with caixin.com.

In addition to announcing 20 billion yuan (US$3.1bn) to support other developing countries in combating climate change, roughly the same as the U.S.’s pledge of US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, Xi made another significant announcement in the joint statement: China plans to establish a national “cap-and-trade” program, the world’s largest emissions trading system (ETS), by 2017.

As the world’s largest greenhouse gas polluter every year, and its second-largest economy, China’s domestic efforts to slow climate change could see it play a leadership role in helping the developing world slow and adapt to climate change.

Joshua P. Meltzer of the Brookings Institution wrote a commentary in late September describing China’s ambitious ETS as the “most noticeable element” of the joint statement. “The decision by China to introduce a national cap-and-trade system stands in increasingly stark contrast to the absence in the U.S. at the federal level of a national program (or even a serious political debate) on pricing carbon,” he wrote.

Pilot Performance

In a pledge submitted to the UN ahead of the Paris meeting, China committed to making sure its annual greenhouse gas emissions stop increasing by 2030, but the absolute ceiling at which its pollution will peak has yet to be announced.

According to estimates by the Paulson Institute, an independent think tank located at the University of Chicago, the cap for China’s carbon emissions may range from three to four billion tons – far higher than the current annual carbon emissions of around one billion tons. The group estimates that the Chinese carbon market’s size may be 64 billion yuan (US$10.1bn) per year.

China’s National Development and Reform Committee (NDRC) has predicted the national carbon market to cap at two to three billion tons, which still allows China to eclipse the European Union (EU) as the world’s largest carbon market.

China’s experience with carbon trading dates back to October 2011, when it declared it would set up seven pilot regional carbon markets. They are located in Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, as well as the provinces of Hubei and Guangdong.

Since mid-2013, the seven pilot schemes have been rolled out successively, and about 2,000 companies have participated so far. By July 31, carbon allowances permitting more than 50 million tons of CO2 to be released have been traded under the pilot programs, at a combined value of about US$300 million, according to the Paulson Institute.

Yet as these pilot programs have been operating, each region’s market has performed differently.

The 2015 China Carbon Pricing Survey, which was conducted by China Carbon Forum and ICF International, showed that prices in the seven pilot schemes have fluctuated significantly.

“Prices in many schemes temporarily rose following their establishment in 2013 and 2014 (prices in Shenzhen even exceeded 100 yuan/ton for a short time in October 2013), but then declined and stabilized throughout late 2014 and early 2015,” reads the report. “In May and June 2015 prices in most schemes dropped sharply, largely due to oversupply of allowances.”

When the survey was taken in mid-2015, prices ranged from 9 yuan (US$1.42) per ton in Shanghai to 42 yuan (US$6.61) per ton in Beijing.

“For a healthy, intact carbon market, once the price runs too low, it may indicate there’s a surplus of allowances and that the overall emission cut target is lethargic,” said Jiang Enjun, senior researcher at Energy Research Institute.

“However, in China, so far the market is in its trial period, and prices, largely manipulated by some market forces rather than being adjusted by emission allowance demand, cannot fully indicate the present condition of the carbon market,” Enjun said.

As pilot projects, the seven different places can hardly be judged to be performing well or poorly either based on price or trading volumes.

Hubei Province appears to have traded the largest amount of allowances, but that is only because it allows for intermediary companies to trade allowances between themselves, while the other six pilot schemes do not allow this practice. By contrast, the city of Chongqing has been reluctant to participate, fearing economic impacts, and some days have passed by in that pilot program with very little trading at all.

Company Reaction

When the pilot schemes launched, most of the affected companies had no conception of what carbon trading was. Dimitri de Boer of China Carbon Forum said that, despite local governments’ mandates that high-emission enterprises take part in the carbon market, there were some who simply refused to buy allowances.

In Hubei Province, 138 coal power plants, chemical plants, cement producers and other enterprises that use as much energy every year as would be produced using 60,000 tons of coal were included in the pilot scheme. The director of a science and technology department within a large petrochemical company in Hubei said she started to take government-organized training programs on the carbon market in March 2013.

The petrochemical company executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity so she could speak honestly about government policies, said it was not difficult for her company to fulfill its compliance in 2014 with free allowances issued to the company by the government. (Most allowances in China have so far been free — a common approach when carbon trading programs are first being established.)

“Through the application of a new waste gas recycling technique last year, not only is our company producing an extra 10,000 tons of natural gas annually, we’re also making an extra 1 million yuan (US$157,000) by selling our saved allowances on the market,” she said.

“An unwillingness to participate in the carbon market is a universal attitude amongst enterprises, particularly when most industries are facing overcapacity,” said Wu Changhua, director of the greater China office of the Climate Group, an NGO. “Thus, it’s very important for the government to have the proper policies in place to stimulate enterprises’ enthusiasm.”

“Wait and See”

National ETS will cover such key industry sectors as iron and steel, power generation, chemical, building materials, papermaking, and nonferrous metals when it launches in 2017. These sectors were selected for two main reasons, according to Wu Changhua.

“First of all, these key industry sectors account for about 60 percent of [China’s] total emissions,” Changhua said. “Secondly, data collected during the past decade for these sectors is comparatively complete.”

The petrochemical executive from Hubei Province said that when the national ETS is formed, her company’s biggest concern will be the system’s fairness in terms of how it allocates allowances.

“To conclude whether China’s ETS is going to be effective or not, we need to see whether there is real trading within its system, whether the trading can stimulate technological innovation, and push companies to take measures to cut emissions, ” Changhua said. “We need to wait and see.”

*Wang Yan is a professional reporter from China. She has published over 200 pieces of in-depth environment reports in English and Chinese in China Newsweek and NewsChina Magazine. Some of her publications have won international fellowships or nationwide awards including The Environmental Press Awards issued jointly by Chinadialogue and the Guardian for two consecutive years in 2011 and 2012. This article was first published in UNDP blog on December 1, 2015. This story was sourced through the Voices2Paris UNDP storytelling contest on climate change and developed thanks to John Upton from Climate Central.

Plot To Destabilize Bangladesh – OpEd

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By Shamsul Huda

A new plot is in the works to destabilize Bangladesh which has just overcome bloody political turmoil caused by the boycott of the January 5, 2014 parliamentary elections by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The prolonged violence left nearly 100 people dead and thousands injured.

The victims in this case were local common people.

However, the new phenomenon of hit-and-run attacks is a serious cause for concern because security forces, minority communities, bloggers, Christian priests and foreign nationals are being targeted. Worse still, these attacks are being claimed by the Daesh terrorist group through a US-based website, the SITE Intelligence Group. A Japanese and Italian were killed and another Italian was seriously injured. Even the Bangladesh Army, which is generally held in high esteem, was not spared. Attacks on Shi’ite community happened for the first time in the history of Bangladesh.

Now the question has arisen whether Daesh exists in the highly Muslim-dominated country of 160 million people. The Bangladesh government is vehemently denying the presence of Daesh, saying that these attacks are designed by a local radical group at the behest of its overseas masters.

Although Daesh’s existence is denied, there have been some active militant groups like Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Al-Nusrat Front and others linked to Al-Qaeda. The JMB flexed its muscles in 2005 when it exploded around 500 bombs at more than 300 locations covering almost all the 64 districts of Bangladesh in the span of 30 minutes.

Prime Minster Sheikh Hasina recently disclosed to media that her government is under tremendous pressure and is being coerced into admitting to the existence of Daesh, which will mean Bangladesh is an insecure country for foreigners. Her ministers went a step further, pointing to some western countries, including the US and the UK, besides some other EU nations which have issued travel alerts for their citizens intending to visit Bangladesh. Some foreign nationals have been identified as the alleged recruiters of Daesh exploiting poverty in rural areas.

Bangladesh is safe for foreigners, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal claimed citing statistics that more than 10,000 foreigners visited the country in November. Currently, over 224,000 foreigners live and work in the country in a safe and peaceful atmosphere. Russian diplomat Alexander Nikolaev said that Bangladesh has been maintaining communal harmony and there has been an ill-intentioned plan to destabilize the country.

That Bangladesh is safe for foreigners is evident from a number of international events that were organized in recent months. Among the major events, prominent are Bangladesh Development Forum, International Folk Festival, International Club Football Tournament and the on-going Bangladesh Premium Cricket League in which many foreign players have been playing. Ironically, the Australian cricket team has canceled its tour to Bangladesh citing security concerns, but its football team participated in the International Club Cup Tournament. Most importantly, Queen Maxima of the Netherlands recently visited various parts of Bangladesh as a UN Secretary-General’s Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development (UNSGSA).

Bangladesh is, beyond doubts, relatively a safe and secular country where people belonging to many religions live together in harmony for generations. Although there were some communal incidents in the past, they had little religious roots as they were orchestrated mainly to serve the vested interests of some people to grab properties of minorities.

Bangladesh probably, for the first time in recent history, has reached a consensus on a national issue to withstand the challenges of international blame game on whether there is a base of Daesh in the country when BNP’s standing committee member and former army chief Mahbubur Rahman ruled out the presence of the terrorist group. It is hoped that whoever is behind the recent series of attacks on foreigners and minority communities, aimed at destabilizing the country, will be brought to book by the government.

President Margvelashvili: Saakashvili ‘Insulted’ Georgia And Presidency

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(Civil.Ge) — Georgia’s President Giorgi Margvelashvili said that his predecessor Mikheil Saakashvili “insulted” the Georgian presidency and the country when he chose to loss Georgian citizenship by obtaining the Ukrainian one.

President Margvelashvili signed a decree on December 4 terminating Georgian citizenship of Saakashvili, who was granted Ukrainian citizenship in May, 2015, when President Petro Poroshenko appointed him as governor of Odessa region.

According to Georgian legislation, a Georgian national loses Georgian citizenship after acquiring citizenship of a foreign country.

Asked about the decision, President Margvelashvili told journalists after a session of the National Security Council late on December 4 that his decree stripping Saakashvili of the Georgian citizenship was a formality and “the only legal procedure” envisaged in such situations when a person obtained citizenship of a foreign country.

“Today Mikheil Saakashvili was stripped of his Georgian citizenship. From the legal point of view this is the only procedure and process envisaged by the law,” President Margvelashvili said.

“From the political point of view, the fact that Saakashvili said no to the Georgian citizenship deserves to be assessed toughly – by doing so Georgia’s former president has actually insulted the presidency, as well as our country,” the Georgian President added.

Saakashvili said in an interview with RFE/RL Ukrainian service that Georgian president’s decree stripping him of the Georgian citizenship is “not just a legal act, it’s a political act of scared and failed authorities, which do not serve national interests.”

“The fact that it is a political decision can be determined by several reasons,” Saakashvili said. “First, there is a two-year interim period envisaged by the Ukrainian laws for revoking previous country’s citizenship. The Georgian government was well aware of it. Here are many our [Georgian] citizens working [in Ukraine] at different official posts, who also obtained Ukrainian citizenship… However, there is no such decision [on revoking citizenship] in respect of them.”

He also said that the Georgian authorities “are very afraid of me” and trying to bar him from running in next year’s parliamentary elections. “Although I have never said I wanted to take part in these elections,” Saakashvili added.

Saakashvili, who is wanted on multiple criminal charges in Georgia which he denies as politically motivated, is a chairman of formerly ruling and now opposition party in Georgia, United National Movement (UNM). Georgia’s law on political parties says that only a Georgian citizen has the right “to establish and participate in activities of a political party.”

Although the Georgian constitution bans dual citizenship, it also allows the President to grant Georgian citizenship to a foreign national “who has a special merit before Georgia” or if granting of Georgian citizenship to a foreign national is in “state interests.” A foreign national has to apply for citizenship to the Georgian President.

In separate remarks in a Georgian-language video address posted on his Facebook page, Saakashvili said that President Margvelashvili “will remain in Georgia’s history, if at all, only with this legal act”.

“They can take my passport, but no one can revoke me of being Georgian and no one will make me lose infinite love for Georgia. We will definitely return and we will definitely win together.”

US And EU’s Mistaken Support Of Al-Maliki Helped Growth Of Islamic State In Iraq – OpEd

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By Struan Stevenson*

(EurActiv) — When Haider al-Abadi was installed as Prime Minister of Iraq last year, it was the culmination of a long-delayed process, whereby the international community realised the harm that had been done to the country and the region by his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki.

When the West put its trust in Abadi and his programme of reform, it was the beginning of a necessary reversal of policy toward Iraq. But it was not alone sufficient to make up for the mistakes of the past, especially the decision by the European Union and the United States to accede to Iran’s demands by supporting Maliki’s re-election in 2010.

The current situation in the Middle East is in large part the consequence of such decision-making. For years, that foreign policy position demonstrated the West’s short-sightedness, tendency to cooperate with the wrong parties, and willingness to ignore regional problems until they have grown almost too big to contain.

We are still not free of all this. There is considerable concern that in the wake of the growth of ISIS (Daesh-ISIL), many Western powers will be even more willing to neglect the other problems in the region and to continue cooperating with people like Maliki and his backers in Tehran. The short-sightedness at play here should be obvious to anyone who paid attention to the conditions in which ISIS flourished.

The West’s willingness to tolerate dictators like Maliki in Iraq and Bashar al-Assad in Syria very much helped to set the stage for the broad-based sectarian conflict on which ISIS thrives. In the second term that he never should have been allowed to serve, Maliki drove Sunnis out of government and consolidated power among a handful of Shi’ites who were loyal to him and who benefited from his close affiliations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sunnis suffered for it and either exposed themselves to the wrath of Shi’ite militias or took cover beneath the fanatical protection of ISIS.

Meanwhile, the growing ISIS threat became something that Maliki could exploit politically to further ramp up his campaign against sectarian foes. Today, we see the same thing happening in Syria. But in that case, Iran is taking a much more public role, with its delegates to international security conferences publicly advocating for the West to drop its opposition to the Assad dictatorship in order to focus on ISIS.

The lessons from Iraq ought to make it clear that we cannot repeat the same mistakes and hope to restore any semblance of order in the Middle East. Certainly, we cannot deepen those mistakes by cooperating directly with Iran’s Shi’ite theocracy or by following its lead. To do so would only further contribute to the sectarian conflict that the West had already indirectly promoted alongside Maliki’s leadership in Iraq.

And it is not sufficient merely to avoid the same errors of policy. We must be proactive about reversing the effects of those errors. We must make it clear to players like Tehran, which would exploit poor Western decisions for their own ends, that we are now fully committed to a different way forward – one that attacks problems like ISIS at their roots by preventing dictators from laying the groundwork for their growth.

Haider al-Abadi’s public statements about the need for reform are encouraging. It is appropriate that he removed Maliki from his new post as vice president in August. But it is not enough. The former prime minister should have been arrested immediately upon vacating his seat. He should have been indicted, if not by the Iraqi government then by the International Criminal Court. Critics contend that Maliki is not only guilty of mismanagement and corruption, and the disappearance of 500 billion dollars, under his rule, but that he is also guilty of human rights abuses, owing to his support of Shi’ite militias and his contribution to attacks against enemies of the Iranian regime inside his country.

Indeed, the case against Maliki surely continues to grow. Despite technically being out of government, he continues to wield considerable influence and to use his stolen money for the funding of a private army. It is already clear that Maliki either willfully ignored or personally ordered six attacks on the Iranian dissident communities of Camp Ashraf and Camp Liberty, members of the People’s Mojahdein Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) during his term in office. And it may yet also become clear that his sectarian forces had a role in the seventh, which took place just at the end of October and brought the total death toll to 140.

The plight of the 2,200 asylum-seekers at Camp Liberty goes to show that mere awareness of the persistent instability in the Middle East is doing nothing to alleviate it. Even in the midst of public advocacy on those people’s behalf from senior American and European policymakers, the Iraqi government and the Iran-backed militias have consistently stepped up their repression of the camp. Even after the latest attack, the residents have been barred from receiving shipments of food, medical equipment, and materials for rebuilding.

These and other activities in the region will almost certainly continue unabated as long as the people who are most responsible for them face no consequences for their actions. If Camp Liberty is to be protected, if ISIS is to be defeated, and if sectarian conflict in general is to be undermined, Nouri al-Maliki must be held to account.

This would at once address several recent problems in Western nations’ Middle East policies. It would make an example of Maliki in the face of other tyrants and sectarian forces. It would help to eliminate his lingering destructive influence. And it would serve as a first step toward a set of policies that deal more appropriately and more harshly with other contributors to the problems of the region, including Syria’s Assad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

*Struan Stevenson was a Conservative MEP representing Scotland in the European Parliament from 1999 to 2014. He was President of the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iraq from 2009 to 2014. He is now President of the European Iraqi Freedom Association (EIFA)

Argentina: Macri Seeks Leadership In Continent

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By Andrés Gaudin

The people of Argentina voted for change for the next four years. On December 10, the country will bid farewell to a progressive government to instead be run by a right-wing party. In the first runoff of local history, held on Nov. 22, the Let’s Change Alliance, led by entrepreneur and former head of the government of the City of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, 56, defeated Daniel Scioli, of the ruling Front for Victory (FPV) party, by a meager 2.68 percent of votes. Macri will take office without a majority in either of the two branches of Congress, which will force him to relax, at least temporarily, the hard-line neoliberal agenda that he proposed.

However, the changes will be seen from day one. In fact, they can already be observed. At the announcement of the end to the social policies of the last 12 years of the three FPV administrations — one led by Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and two by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015) —, the prices of basic commodities increased. Producers of goods and food also anticipated the new government’s decision to eliminate state subsidies of public services and will have to study how this will affect their costs and the cost they pass on to consumers.

The new government, that according to its ideology will have a cabinet of ministers and other senior officials from the business sector, began to crumble just hours after the victory had been confirmed at the polls. The day after the second round, Ernesto Sanz, the other central figure of Let’s Change, after Macri, resigned from all positions in government and even political activity, leaving without a leader the Radical Civic Union (UCR), one of the two major parties of the alliance. Sanz’s mandate as Senator ends Dec. 10, and he was president of the more than one hundred-year-old party he abandoned. On that afternoon, the UCR legislators and senators also rejected an offer from Let’s Change to unify the legislative blocks.

Government of businessmen

At a press conference on Nov. 23, Macri set out the broad outlines of his administration. At the same time, it was known who will occupy the most important positions of cabinet ministers and the highest executive positions.

“This will be the government of the CEOs,” ridiculed opposition journalist Roberto Navarro, referring to the chief executive officers.

The Ministry of Finance will be run by Alfonso Prat-Gay, former CEO of JP Morgan Bank. The chief of staff will form a team with Mario Quintana, CEO of Pegasus investment Fund, and Gustavo Lopetegui, CEO of the airline LAN. The Minister of Production, Francisco Cabrera, has been CEO of Hewlett Packard, the pension fund company Maximum, the Roberts financial group, HSBC bank, and the newspaper La Nación. The Ministry of Energy will be occupied by Juan José Aranguren, CEO of Shell Oil, and Isela Costantini, CEO of General Motors in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, will be in charge of the presidency of Aerolíneas Argentinas. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Susana Malcorra, is chief of staff to the Secretary General of the United Nations and previously served as CEO of IBM and Telecom. The large business groups will also have their representatives in the cabinet.

Along with the economy, foreign policy will be the area with most novelty. Although Malcorra has not appeared in public, Macri took the opportunity to declare his major foreign policy plans, announcing two shocking declarations. First, there will be a total break with the policy of regional integration of the last 12 years. Second, Macri has not devoted a single sentence to what has been the linchpin of Argentina’s diplomacy since the country’s return to democracy in 1983: the sovereign claim over the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, occupied by Great Britain since 1833. Instead, he seemed pleased with a phone call from British Prime Minister David Cameron, “with whom we pledged to work together, without rancor.”

In the same vein, the new government will try to annul the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, signed in 2013 with the aim of continuing the stalled legal inquiry into the terrorist attack of July 1994 against the Jewish entity Argentine Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA).

Rapprochement with Pacific Alliance

In his eagerness to be a leader in the continent, Macri’s first statement was to ask for Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) by applying the “democratic clause”, an instrument signed by the member countries in 1998, which places sanctions to a member country when it breaks from “the democratic order.” The president-elect has not yet made any reference to the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). Instead, he repeatedly said at the announcement that he seeks a rapprochement with the Pacific Alliance (AP) trade bloc which includes Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, and Costa Rica and Panama as observer states.

“We intend to restore relations with Brazil, providing a new dynamic to MERCOSUR and seeking convergence with the AP to expand the destinations of our exports. We come with the aim of building good and predictable relations with our Latin American brothers and with the world at large,” Macri said. In two other moments he referred to the AP to point out that “Argentina needs to increase its exports [which have been] slowed by the overvalued currency and recession in Brazil.”

Macri surprised everyone when he said that the first thing he will do when he takes office is to review, and “if necessary, cancel”, the investment and integration agreements signed with China and Russia. Although the agreements with both countries were approved by both branches of the legislature, Macri said that he will “send them to Congress for discussion and approval.”

For outgoing Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman, the AP “is consistent with the old concept of the Washington Consensus and delights believers of neoliberalism and the continental right. There is a common theme in the countries that make up [the AP], which is that they are the same countries that recently signed the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which integrates the countries of the Pacific Rim of the Americas and Asia, excluding China”.

Delicate Dilemma: Why The US Must Sustain Israel’s Security – OpEd

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The present volatile situation in the Middle East is such that the US needs Israel more than ever if it is to keep secure its own stakes in the region and maintain its global superpower position.

By Hriday Ch. Sarma*

“Zionism’s only hope is the Jews of America.” Max Nordau, co-founder of the World Zionist Organization, said this after the First Zionist Congress to emphasize the importance of the US for the success of political Zionism and the establishment of a future Jewish homeland. Today the (Western) media is inundated with sensational stories about the Obama-Netanyahu personal rivalry and growing strains in the US-Israeli relationship. Whilst both relationships are not in perfect shape, this has really never been the case.

Privately-owned media houses often deliberately infuse sensationalism in order to make stories more appealing. In reality, however, there exists a larger situational and contextual picture to all hard news stories. For instance, various media sources have described Victory15, commonly known as V15, as a planned US campaign to oust Netanyahu. However, the seeds of V15 were hatched when Itamar Weizmann, an Israeli national studying history at the Tel Aviv University, wrote a long analytical post on his Facebook account in September last year that drew impressive media exposure and public attention among Israelis. Nimrod Dweck, another Israeli national and founder of an online marketing company, sort a meeting with Itamar and invited former Shin Bet security service head, Yuval Diskin, to attend. Dweck and Weizmann started working on the idea of bringing about a new political reality and put together a growing team of volunteers. The main funding for this public relations campaign came from a tie-up with the OneVoice Movement, a nonprofit organization with headquarters in New York that aims to encourage worldwide grassroots support for a two-state solution to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. V15 also hired 270 Strategies, an American political consulting group headed by Jeremy Bird, who worked on President Obama’s two victorious presidential campaigns. In fact, there is no confirmed evidence of Obama administration getting directly or even indirectly involved with the Israeli presidential election in any capacity.

Durable relationship built on interdependency

The US and Israel have always shared an intimate bond which goes beyond strategic alliance, however divergent their political and military interests often are. Since World War II, Israel has received the bulk of direct aid from the US. The financial support and political pressure of American Jews, a group whose number and socioeconomic importance made them by the mid-twentieth century the most powerful Jewish community in modern history, have been vitally instrumental in the birth of Israel as a state and with subsequent state-building activities. Until the mid-sixties, the US refrained from officially supplying arms to Israel, considering the fact that the Arabs would be alienated and provoked to ask the Soviets for weapons, which would start a frantic arms race across the Middle East. The US policy towards Israel first shifted under President John Kennedy with the sale of HAWK antiaircraft missiles in 1962. This strategic shift was pursued to avoid providing one state in the region a military advantage over the other. It further changed in 1968 when President Lyndon Johnson announced the sale of Phantom jets to Israel. That sale established the US as Israel’s principal arms supplier. It also marked the beginning of the US policy to give Israel a qualitative military edge over its neighbors.

Between 1949 and 1973, the US provided Israel with an average of about $122 million a year, a total of $3.1 billion. Since 1974, Israel has received nearly $108 billion in direct assistance from the US, according to conservative estimates of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs. Moreover, all past US loans to Israel have eventually been forgiven by Congress, which has helped Israel’s often-touted claim that they have never defaulted on a US government loan. In addition, there is the more than $1.5 billion in private US funds that go to Israel annually in the form of $1 billion in private tax-deductible donations and $500 million in Israeli bonds. These figures exclude short- and long-term commercial loans from US banks, which have been as high as $1 billion annually in recent years. That entire package of financial bonanza has not come as a free gift rather that has been paybacks, concessions and deserving dues which the US has handed out to Israel for its devoted loyalty, religious bonding, complimenting hi-tech businesses and strategic partnership.

Asset test: new strategic and economic dimensions of US-Israeli relations’ (2013), a report co-authored by Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, lays out insightful findings about the two country’s mutual dependency. It says that Israel is the only ally of the US in the Middle East whose interests are closely-aligned. At least very locally, Israel is today a bulwark against radical Islam in its controlled territories and in Jordan as a result of its cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. Israel is also a US-ally against radical nationalist regimes, like Syria, and radical Islamic regimes, like Tehran. Israel serves US interests at a time when US is not willing to use military force to prevent the spread of chemical weapons to extremist groups. US support for Israel has contributed to anti-Americanism among Arab societies, but there are various other reasons like support for authoritarian regimes, perceived anti-Muslim actions (such as Iraq), discontent with the war on terror. The US-Israeli relationship has not affected the subject of US-Arab relation. Moreover, Israel makes substantial hard security contributions to US national security in the military and defence domain with intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism cooperation, rocket and missile defence, military to military cooperation, defence industrial cooperation and homeland security. The report also talks in length about Israel’s contribution to the US in non-military sectors, especially economics and technology.

Current necessity overrides conundrum

US-Israeli relations hit a roadblock at the time when Israel executed Operation Protective Edge, and there were reported incidents of indiscriminate Israeli shelling of centres that hosted civilians in Gaza territories. However the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of 2014 occurred within a large security void at the regional level. This security void was first created when US and allied military pulled-out from Iraq by the end of 2011, and has thereupon expanded in scope and territory. Many restive non-state actors driven by their selfish interests have fiercely competed among themselves and against government authorities in order to fill the power vacuum.

Islamic State (IS) has been at the forefront all others in exploiting the power vacuum in the Middle East. It has achieved notable successes in erecting a caliphate that is spread over a 400-mile swathe of terrain that extends from southern Syria into central Iraq. This Islamic caliphate, with its distinct characteristics, effectively qualifies as a political-military entity that is alien to the established Westphalia based state system around the world. Now IS is attempting to fortify this newly-built caliphate and in this pursuit is unleashing a spree of terror attacks against all accessible soft-targets, i.e. particularly those within or adjacent to its area under domination. Although IS has not openly issued any threat of executing terrorist attacks against Israel for now, unlike it recently did against the US. However IS has openly proclaimed in the past that its final aim is to capture Jerusalem – the political capital of Israel.

The Iran nuclear agreement, which the US has recently started implementing with a view to lifting economic sanctions imposed on Tehran by the West, complicates the US-Israel relationship. Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of US Congress and the UN General Assembly to vociferously criticise the deal as bad for US national security and regional/global security. However, even Netanyahu understands that sabotaging the deal at this moment through Jewish connections within the US will seriously damage the US’s international reputation as a global peacemaker. The deal is an opportunity for Israel to further consolidate its position as an unrivalled military power in the Middle East with new bounties coming from the US and Western counties, which the highest Israeli political-military establishment understands well.

The present volatile situation in the Middle East is such that the US needs Israel more than ever if it is to keep secure its own stakes in the region and maintain its global superpower position. Israel needs to urgently strike a lasting peace arrangement with Palestine if it is to continue to economically grow amid escalating criticism from different quarters. The world today is no more a compartmentalized world of different unconnected regions; we are living in an information age whereby the cause of humanity prevails over chauvinistic-nationalism. A next Paris or Beirut like incident can only be avoided if the U.S. and Israel gets perfectly on-board to fight strong against radical Islamic terrorism.

*Hriday Ch. Sarma is a PhD Candidate in Energy Studies Program at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. He is also a Israel Analyst.

China Seeks Wider Global Reach With African Loans, Naval Presence: Analysts

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China on Friday announced it would extend $60 billion in debt facilities to African countries as well as writing off existing loans in a three-year plan to extend its influence in the region.

President Xi Jinping unveiled the plan in conference with leaders at a meeting of the African Union, while pledging at the same time not to “interfere in the internal affairs” of sovereign African nations.

But analysts said Beijing is now engaged in a long-term strategy to expand its political and military influence around the world.

Xi’s announcement comes after China said last week it was in talks with the Horn of Africa country Djibouti to build a permanent military logistics base to support Chinese peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions.

Beijing has repeatedly said it does not want military bases abroad, nor does it seek political interference in the “internal affairs” of other countries.

African critics of China’s already extensive presence in the continent say Beijing favors Chinese companies for major infrastructure projects, and imports Chinese workers rather than creating jobs for Africans.

But Xi told the two-day Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in South Africa that Beijing wants to “address issues holding back Africa’s development.”

“[These are]: inadequate infrastructure, lack of professional and skilled personnel, and funding shortages,” according to Xi, who addressed the conference following a visit to Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe’s government signed 10 economic accords with Beijing.

Long-term strategy

China, whose own economic growth has slowed in recent years, plans to step up investment in factories manufacturing goods for export, as well as building roads, ports, and railways.

In return, analysts said China regards Africa as a major source of commodities and as a region ripe for Beijing’s expanding political influence.

Li Xiaobing, director of the Western Pacific Institute at the University of Central Oklahoma, said China’s plan for a military base in Djibouti is part of a long-term plan to widen its military influence around the world.

“In the past, anti-terrorism or anti-piracy or peacekeeping missions had a time limit on them,” Li said.

“But the construction of this base in Djibouti is significant in terms of a longer-term strategy.”

He said Xi, who has waged a nationwide anti-corruption campaign since coming to power in late 2012, is now looking for further areas in which to consolidate his power.

“Xi Jinping is securely ensconced in Zhongnanhai,” Li said, referring to China’s national leadership compound in Beijing. “And he has rectified the local government and the military as far as he can.”

“But he has barely made a start overseas … Now he wants to set up a … Sinocentric power base.”

He said Xi’s strategy comes against the background of a Chinese sense of victimhood at the hands of 19th century colonial powers.

“[Some Chinese people think] that they have always been the victims, and that they should now rise up and take the opportunities that are there for development and expansion,” he said.

Colonialist path

Peter Kwong, Distinguished Professor at the City University of New York, agreed, saying that China appears to be taking a well-trodden colonialist path in Africa.

“It’s very similar to the [European] colonialism of the 19th century,” Kwong said.

“It’s not just about resources; it’s also about achieving political control over these places.”

Zhu Yongde, honorary professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology, said Xi is continuing his bid to become a major player in global politics.

“Xi Jinping is probably feeling the effects of having attended a number of international meetings recently,” Zhu said.

He said Xi is setting out to make China’s presence strongly felt on the international stage.

Responding to Xi on Friday, South African President Jacob Zuma said African countries need Chinese help to process abundant natural resources that have made them vulnerable to exploitation.

“That way what is buried in the belly of the soil will translate into benefit for the bellies of our citizens,” Zuma said.

Joint naval exercises

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval forces meanwhile held their first joint exercises with NATO ships last week on an anti-piracy mission, as Beijing seeks a greater role in global security.

China’s navy has a long-standing presence in the waters off Yemen and Somalia, where its merchant ships and oil tankers are frequent visitors, and where it helped evacuate people from Yemen’s civil war earlier this year.

China is Africa’s largest trading partner and the trade volume between them amounted to U.S.$220 billion in 2014, the official news agency Xinhua reported.

London-based BMI Research has estimated that Chinese investments in African countries stood at U.S.$32.4 billion at the end of last year.

Reported by Yang Jiadai for RFA’s Mandarin Service. Translated and written in English by Luisetta Mudie.


Iraq Raises Alarm As Turkey Sends Soldiers Across Border

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Iraq is demanding the immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops that are reportedly on a training mission near the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which is occupied by Islamic State (ISIL) radicals (known as Daesh in the Arab world).

“Turkish armed forces located near Mosul have invaded the country without permission and they must leave immediately,” a statement from the press service of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi, obtained by RIA Novosti, says.

On Friday, various media reports said that about 130 Turkish military personnel had been deployed to the Mosul area allegedly to provide training to Kurdish Peshmerga (a military force of Iraqi Kurdistan) which is somewhat ironic considering the Peshmerga are the best fighters in the region.

Abadi said on Twitter that the “unauthorized presence of Turkish troops in Mosul province is a serious breach of Iraqi sovereignty.”

Mosul was captured by Daesh militants in June, 2014. At the time, the city had a population of over 2 million. It is still controlled by the terrorists.

Daesh, a radical Sunni group, has ceased vast areas in Iraq, as well as Syria. A US-led international coalition, which includes Turkey, has been conducting airstrikes against Daesh targets in Iraq and Syria since September 2014.

Peshmerga forces in Iraq have been fighting against Daesh on the ground.

Iraqi government officials believe Turkish soldiers invaded to safeguard the transport of stolen Iraqi oil to Turkey.

US Supreme Court To Evaluate Federal Firearm Provision Again – Analysis

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On October 30, 2015, the US Supreme Court granted certiorari to hear Voisine v. United States, a decision examining the federal provision that makes it unlawful for an individual to possess a firearm or ammunition if he or she has been convicted of a misdemeanor crime of domestic violence (MCDV). A MCDV is defined as a misdemeanor offense under federal or state law that has, as an element, “the use or attempted use of physical force, or threatened use of a deadly weapon” committed by and against certain persons. The Court decided to hear one of two questions presented: whether a misdemeanor crime with a mens rea of recklessness qualifies as a “misdemeanor crime of domestic violence” as defined by 18 U.S.C. §§ 921(a)(33)(A) and 922(g)(9). The Court decided not to review the constitutionality of the provision under the Second, Fifth, and Sixth Amendments or the Ex Post Facto Clause.

Arguably the Justices paved the way for this case when deciding United States v. Castleman last term. In Castleman, the Court held that the requirement of “physical force” is satisfied by the degree of force that supports a battery conviction at common law, namely “offensive touching.” However, the Court noted that it had not resolved whether “a reckless application of force could constitute ‘use’ of force.” This is now the issue before the Court when it hears Voisine.

In Voisine, the First Circuit upheld the defendants’ MCDV conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(9), finding that their underlying convictions pursuant to Maine law qualified as predicate MCDV offenses. In doing so, the First Circuit analyzed whether Maine’s assault statute, which includes reckless acts, categorically fits within § 922(g)(9). The First Circuit in United States v. Booker had earlier held that a reckless misdemeanor satisfies the federal definition of MCDV. In Castleman, the Court did not say Booker was wrong, but highlighted other circuit court decisions, which had determined that “recklessness is not sufficient” to satisfy the use-of-force requirement. In Voisine, the First Circuit dismissed these other circuit cases, stating that “[a]ll but one of the ten cases cited in Castleman … as deciding the § 922(g)(9) mens rea issue in fact considered other statutes in other contexts…” Given § 922(g)(9)’s legislative history and unique purpose in ensuring that “domestic abusers convicted of misdemeanors, in addition to felonies, are barred from possessing firearms,” the First Circuit opined that the provision should be interpreted more broadly than other statutes, which do not include reckless crimes as qualifying predicate offenses.

Section 922(g)(9), according to the court, “is meant to embrace those seemingly minor predicate acts, occurring sometimes in moments of passion, where the perpetrator consciously disregarded a risk in light of known circumstances.” The First Circuit reviewed Maine’s definition of recklessness, which occurs “when the person consciously disregards a risk that the person’s conduct will cause such result.” This definition, according to the court, involves a volitional component and a substantial amount of deliberateness and intent. The First Circuit found the state’s definition of reckless “sufficiently volitional,” such that the crime of reckless assault in Maine constitutes a predicate offense for purposes of § 922(g)(9).

Notably, the First Circuit made clear that it was not deciding that “recklessness in the abstract is always enough to satisfy § 922(g)(9),” realizing that the term has not always been consistently used. Given the First Circuit’s focus on whether Maine’s mens rea requirement of reckless satisfies the statute and the different definitions a state may employ, it will be interesting to see what definition the Court will turn to upon hearing Voisine. Will it survey the states to see how they have defined recklessness in a particular context or will the Court turn to the meaning of the term under common law? If the Court overturns the First Circuit’s decision, the result could limit the types of state domestic violence convictions that qualify as predicate offenses under § 922(g)(9). As a consequence, there could be an increase in the number of persons eligible to possess a firearm, despite a misdemeanor conviction for domestic abuse, as such offenses would no longer satisfy § 922(g)(9). Were the Court to exclude crimes of domestic violence with a mens rea requirement of recklessness, Congress could pass a law including recklessness as a type of mental state that would satisfy § 922(g)(9)’s definition of MCDV.

Source:
This article was published by CRS as Legal Sidebar 12/3/2015 (PDF)

Prospect For Iran-Russia Cooperation Against Islamic State – Analysis

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By Hossein Bozorgmanesh*

Most analysts of Middle East’s developments argue that after the beginning of Russia’s military operations in Syria, which are aimed at shoring up military forces of the Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government, an unwritten alliance has come into being among Iran, Russia, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. As a result of this alliance, a single front has emerged with the final goal of keeping the Syrian government in place and destroying Islamist groups that are against Assad, including Daesh and al-Nusra Front. This front, in turn, has enabled the Syrian army to gradually purge critical areas of the country from terrorist elements with the help from Russia’s air force, and consolidate its grip on bigger swathes of Syrian territory. However, it must not be forgotten that threats posed by Daesh terrorist group and other extremist groups are not limited to Syria, but the threat of such extremist groups have been felt by Iran and Russia in the following three regions as well:

Iraq: Following the military invasion of Iraq by the United States and the overthrow of the country’s former dictator, Saddam Hussein, Americans dissolved the Iraqi army and its intelligence services. Due to this issue as well as weak management of the country by the occupying forces, the country became a major breeding ground for such extremist groups as al-Qaeda. Later on, widespread discontent with the performance of the former Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, and excessive demands by the country’s Sunni population in addition to financial support from rich Arab countries of the region, including Saudi Arabia, led to the emergence of Daesh terrorist group in Iraq. In view of the long border that Iran has with Iraq, this group can turn into a serious threat to Iran’s national security as well. Meanwhile, presence of Chechen militants from Caucasus region in Iraq and their possible return to Russia has been a major source of concern for Moscow.

Afghanistan: There are fertile grounds in Afghanistan for the activities of various extremist groups such as Taliban, Hekmatyar network and Al-Qaeda due to extreme poverty in the country, religious fanaticism, weakness of the central government, mountainous terrain, and existence of large farms where poppy is cultivated. As a result, many reports have been published during the past months about the presence of covert and operational Daesh cells in Afghan provinces of Ghazni, Faryab, Badakhshan, and Sar-e Pol. The reports include pictures of a Daesh training camp in northern Afghanistan, named after the group’s former Iraq commander, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In view of the long border that Afghanistan has with Iran, if the activities of Daesh terrorists spread to border provinces of Iran, it can have serious security consequences for the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, Russia is not happy about extensive presence of Chechen, Uzbek, and Tajik militants in Afghanistan, especially along Afghanistan’s borders with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan; a region that Moscow considers as its backyard.

Central Asia: The countries in Central Asia can be considered among important regions that have been of interest to a host of extremist Islamist groups following the collapse of the former Soviet Union. The presence of such extremist groups as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, in addition to extreme poverty and religious fanaticism among a large part of people in Central Asian countries, have provided a fertile ground for the activities of such extremist groups as Daesh. Given the presence of Daesh in Afghanistan’s border regions with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and widespread presence of immigrants from Tajikistan and other regional countries in Russia, infiltration of Central Asia by Daesh can have serious effects on the national security of Russia. Iran, on the other hand, has long border with Turkmenistan and can, therefore, be exposed to Daesh threat in its northeastern regions. Some developments, which have been considered as signs of presence of Daesh in Central Asia, include apprehension of 160 Daesh members in Tashkent by Uzbekistan’s security forces, extensive online activity of Daesh supporters on various websites, joining Daesh by Gulmurad Haliov, former commander of Tajikistan Interior Ministry’s special police force, presence of more than 3,000 militants from regional countries in Iraq and Syria, the announcement of solidarity with Daesh by the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, and activities carried out by covert Daesh cells, which aim to recruit new members and promote the group’s ideas.

On the whole, the fight against extremist groups in such countries as Iraq, Afghanistan and Central Asia, needs Iran and Russia to join hands and cooperate with crisis-hit countries in the region. Iran and Russia can play supplementary roles. For example, with regard to Afghanistan, Iran can lend its support to grounds forces as well as the related paramilitary forces that are affiliated to the central government in Kabul, thus, taking a serious step in fighting such extremist groups as Daesh. Russia, for its part, can bolster the Afghan air force, which is suffering from major weaknesses due to reluctance of the United States to equip Afghanistan’s air force with modern technology.

* Hossein Bozorgmanesh
Expert on Middle East Issues

The Threat Of Mass Release: Criminal Justice Run Amok – Analysis

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By David W. Murray*

Radical critics of America’s justice system claim it has wrongfully produced “mass incarceration”—the actual data do not support this charge. Instead, one finds that high rates of crime (which have fallen steeply in the past two decades) led to high rates of incarceration. The system operated justly in individual cases, and as crime rates have fallen, so have rates of incarceration. The system works and, for the most part, it works justly.

But there is no doubt that we will now suffer from a new threat: “mass releases” of convicted felons, under President Obama’s executive orders in the name of sentencing reform. Some 6,000 (of the approximately 200,000) convicted federal prisoners were released in November, but they are only the first wave of intended releases, which could affect as many as 46,000 total prisoners.

Supporters of the mass release call for more “second chances,” or even invoke the American traditions of redemption, to justify opening the prison doors. But is this executive action truly going to produce more justice?

No one doubts that there are mistakes and excesses in the justice system, especially under the “mandatory minimum” policies set in place under President Clinton, themselves being re-considered by bills now moving through Congress. That said, however, “mistakes” and “second chances” do not seem to account for what we are seeing today.

Instead, we risk a wholesale annulling of the operations of justice, critics offering their own judgment that the US system is broken, and produces injustices, especially for minorities. This charge is false.

Consider what happened when the President proposed executive “clemency” for prisoners, who were said to be low-level and non-violent, or “wrongly sentenced.” But after systematic review, rather than the “thousands” of prisoners that media claimed would be affected, the President found fewer than 150 individuals who fit the criteria.

Hence, the more reckless plan we face today, to abandon the criteria (perhaps for political gain) and push mass release. Criminal justice officials are stunned by these actions, and point out that many released prisoners are, in fact, multiple offenders, convicted of serious crimes, involving violence, weapons, and many victims.

A majority are serious drug traffickers, a group often claimed to be non-violent. FBI Director James Comey said recently of drug traffickers, recounting his days as a federal prosecutor in Richmond, Virginia, “. . . if you were black and poor it didn’t matter whether you were a player in the drug trade or not…violent crime dominated your life… There was no way to drive around the violence that came with the drug trade… [it] was a plague of violence that strangled Richmond’s black neighborhoods.”

Second chances? In reality, it’s hard to get into federal prison, with typically many crimes committed for every one arrest, and many arrests for more and more serious offenses before a judge finally sentences the worst and persistent criminals, often as the only way to protect victims and their communities.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has analyzed the cases of federal drug prisoners, and found that the average number of prior arrests for each felon was 11. Further, the data show that fully 77 percent of released federal drug trafficker felons will re-offend within 5 years.

No doubt that is why a national organization representing victims of crimes has asked Congress not to recklessly release felons back into their communities. Perhaps that is why District Attorneys in California, after a federal court had ordered multiple “early releases” of prisoners because of prison overcrowding, posted information about the felons carried in their letters of opposition to the release.

Though they were termed “non-violent” the District Attorneys revealed that many have “violent and lengthy criminal histories,” including gang members convicted of assault with a deadly weapon, of voluntary manslaughter, possession of weapons caches, of stalking and abuse of girlfriends, and the vicious beating of a 75-year-old woman.

And still President Obama plans on releasing thousands of comparable federal prisoners. Not surprisingly, the plan is not politically popular. According to an Opinion Research Center poll just released, 58 percent of Americans oppose the idea that drug traffickers should receive lessened criminal sentences.

Senators who support current sentencing reform bills are clearly running a political risk, no matter how many media commentators applaud the President’s intention.

This disapproval may be especially acute in the multiple states slated to receive, for instance, the 2,317 current prisoners identified with the Armed Career Criminal Act (felons convicted more than twice of violent or serious felony) who will be eligible for release under the pending Senate bill.

Communities in Florida could receive 360, for Georgia, it could be 93, or the 171 for Missouri, North Carolina’s 140, the 115 for Pennsylvania, the 104 for South Carolina, or the 218 for Tennessee (to cite some examples). (Clearly, these figures could magnify, perhaps 20 times over, were all 46,000 federal felons to be released.)

Victims’ groups and community leaders will be watching, with understandable apprehension, to discover the potential impact on their safety.

About the author:
*David W. Murray
, Senior Fellow

Source:
This article was published by the Hudson Institute.

Obama: We Will Not Be Terrorized – Transcript

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In this week’s address, US President Barack Obama offered his condolences to the families and community of the victims of the San Bernardino shooting. He recognized the possibility that the two attackers may have been radicalized, a reminder to all of us that we need to work together to prevent people from falling victim to attempts by extremist organizations to encourage violence. The President called on Congress to close the loophole that allows people on the No-Fly list to purchase guns, a simple and logical step that would make it harder for potential terrorists to acquire weapons. And he reminded us that we cannot accept mass shootings like this one as routine in our country, and emphasized that above all else, his priority is the safety and security of the American people.


Remarks of President Barack Obama
Weekly Address
The White House
December 5, 2015

Hi, everybody. This weekend, our hearts are with the people of San Bernardino—another American community shattered by unspeakable violence. We salute the first responders—the police, the SWAT teams, the EMTs—who responded so quickly, with such courage, and saved lives. We pray for the injured as they fight to recover from their wounds.

Most of all, we stand with 14 families whose hearts are broken. We’re learning more about their loved ones—the men and women, the beautiful lives, that were lost. They were doing what so many of us do this time of year—enjoying the holidays. Celebrating with each other. Rejoicing in the bonds of friendship and community that bind us together, as Americans. Their deaths are an absolute tragedy, not just for San Bernardino, but for our country.

We’re also learning more about the killers. And we’re working to get a full picture of their motives—why they committed these revolting acts. It’s important to let the investigators do their job. We need to know all the facts. And at my direction, federal law enforcement is helping in every way that they can. We’re going to get to the bottom of this.

It is entirely possible that these two attackers were radicalized to commit this act of terror. And if so, it would underscore a threat we’ve been focused on for years—the danger of people succumbing to violent extremist ideologies. We know that ISIL and other terrorist groups are actively encouraging people—around the world and in our country—to commit terrible acts of violence, often times as lone wolf actors. And even as we work to prevent attacks, all of us—government, law enforcement, communities, faith leaders—need to work together to prevent people from falling victim to these hateful ideologies.

More broadly, this tragedy reminds us of our obligation to do everything in our power, together, to keep our communities safe. We know that the killers in San Bernardino used military-style assault weapons—weapons of war—to kill as many people as they could. It’s another tragic reminder that here in America it’s way too easy for dangerous people to get their hands on a gun.

For example, right now, people on the No-Fly list can walk into a store and buy a gun. That is insane. If you’re too dangerous to board a plane, you’re too dangerous, by definition, to buy a gun. And so I’m calling on Congress to close this loophole, now. We may not be able to prevent every tragedy, but—at a bare minimum—we shouldn’t be making it so easy for potential terrorists or criminals to get their hands on a gun that they could use against Americans.

Today in San Bernardino, investigators are searching for answers. Across our country, our law enforcement professionals are tireless. They’re working around the clock—as always—to protect our communities. As President, my highest priority is the security and safety of the American people. This is work that should unite us all—as Americans—so that we’re doing everything in our power to defend our country. That’s how we can honor the lives we lost in San Bernardino. That’s how we can send a message to all those who would try to hurt us. We are Americans. We will uphold our values—a free and open society. We are strong. And we are resilient. And we will not be terrorized.

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