By Francesco Brunello Zanitti*

Is the new Russian approach towards China and India, vector for a multipolar world order? Will the new Davos – gathering between vanity fair and summit of the mightiest – in future take place in Kyrgyzstan – Central Asian country surrounded by the most prosperous and promising powers?

The last months of 2014 were marked by a series of significant bilateral agreements and summits involving Russia, India and China. According to many international analysts, the research of better relations with the two Asian giants by Moscow represents another further step towards global transformation from an unipolar order ruled by United States to a multipolar one.

A key point in order to analyze the fundamental reasons of Moscow’s approach towards China and India is connected to difficulties emerged in the last year with European Union and United States. Complications in Russia-West relations are clearly exemplified by the Ukrainian imbroglio.

However, it’s also necessary to dwell on long-term strategic interests of the countries involved. Despite the current shaky situation of Eastern Europe and Middle East, generally speaking Beijing and New Delhi look at Russia as a reliable partner with whom it’s fundamental continue to dialogue, cooperate and trade.

China-Russia dialogue is growing from mid-nineties, while Indian strategic relationship with Moscow is heir of the one established during Cold War with Soviet Union. Moreover, it should not to be underestimate the fact that Russia, India and China are already actively cooperating in other multilateral organizations, such as BRICS forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and have the opportunity to develop new platforms for political, economic and military cooperation, for example within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The strategic triangle Russia-India-China (RIC), taken into account difficulties of relations especially considering Indo-Chinese bond characterized at the same time by cooperation and competition, could therefore be an interesting model of dialogue in the new multipolar world order.

The strengthening of Russian-Chinese cooperation

Regarding the close relationship between China and Russia, it is possible to consider latest agreements on energy co-operation, taking into consideration that improvements of this relation have been underway for about two decades after the fall of Soviet Union. It can be argued that Russian-Chinese partnership is based on three basic pillars, key points of Chinese foreign policy: peace, cooperation and development, to which it’s possible to add mutual profit for both sides and “win-win strategy”.

A milestone of last year improvements in bilateral relations was the May 2014 agreement worth $ 400 billion, which concerns pipeline Power of Siberia and the sending of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to China. The sale of gas will not begin immediately because natural gas fields in Eastern Russia require infrastructural improvements as well as connecting pipelines have yet to be installed. However, according to agreements the sending of natural gas through the eastern route will be operative from 2018.

Russia and China have also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the western route, which could guarantee to China further 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. The main important consequence of these agreements is that they could transform China in the largest consumer of Russian gas. An aspect that should not be underestimated in a consideration of medium-long term is that China could become the main market of Russian energy resources as a whole, overcoming Europe.

In 2012 Russian exports of natural gas towards Europe totaled $66 billion and accounted for more than 10% of total Russian exports. In the diversification of its exports, Russia could find in Chinese market a viable alternative to Europe, while the latter should find clear alternatives such as shale gas from United States reducing its energy dependence from Russia.

At the same time, there is an important strategic advantage for Beijing because it would receive resources through land. This would be a major transformation of Chinese energy supplying, considering that currently resources destined to China are transported by sea through the Strait of Malacca, controlled by United States, and through areas characterized by tensions and territorial disputes (South and Eastern China Sea).

Becoming a fundamental energy partner of China, Russia would be also a competitor of United States since Chinese territory is one of the most advantages markets for Washington’s exportations of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Energy sector represents the most important area in which Russian-Chinese cooperation could further develop: for example Rosneft has offered a 10% stake to Chinese authorities for the project of joint exploitation of Vankor oil field in Eastern Siberia, Rosneft’s third-largest onshore production subsidiary. This deal would represent the most substantial Chinese equity participation in Russia’s onshore oil industry to date. Furthermore, it will be offered a representative office to China in the board of the same project, while Moscow would offer the sale of oil from Vankor’s field with payments in Yuan, a move that would exemplify a challenge to international dollar system and its role as reserve-currency in the world.

China aims to invest in Asian infrastructural sector with the ambitious objective to create a complex network of high-speed railways, pipelines, ports and optical fibers cables that could link Chinese cities to neighboring countries and beyond; in this case two projects could be cited, the Silk Road Economic Belt through Eurasia and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road trough East and South China Seas and Pacific and Indian Oceans. These projects could effectively link Europe to Asia-Pacific. Some components of these plans are already under construction, especially in Central Asian republics, but Chinese intentions are to create more links with Russia, Iran, Middle East, Turkey, Indian Subcontinent, South-East Asia and Europe.

The current Asian political scenario, considering these Chinese infrastructural projects, is then characterized by the consolidation of a strategic cooperation between Russia and China, a factor confirmed at the end of the last meeting between APEC countries (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), hosted by Beijing (November 10th – 11th, 2014). This strategic cooperation has been further emphasized by visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in Beijing few days after APEC summit. From all these meetings and subsequent agreements emerged the prospect of an alliance based on common economic, military, political and energy interests in order to share development and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

This cooperation could also appear to some extent as a political response to NATO’s containment of Russia and US pivot strategy finalized to rebalance of power in Asia-Pacific. This particular kind of interpretation focused on Washington’s concerns is founded analyzing Eastern Europe’s tensions and sporadic diplomatic clashes for the economic control of East and South China Seas.

China looks favorably to economic consequences arising from its cooperation with Russia. The international situation and concerns related to strategic issues have created the conditions for a strengthening of teamwork between Russia and China so that Moscow could defend its interests and Beijing could maintain globally a balance of power. It is possible that this kind of collaboration could go further, making the two countries interdependent and able to reinforce relationship in other sectors (agriculture, aerospace, defense and information technology).

Russia and China have already a consolidated business relationship worth approximately $ 100 billion and at the same time China could support Moscow to deal with the effects of Western sanctions on its finances. Beijing would continue to invest in Russian bonds and make direct investments in Russia. China is currently in the position to do so, given the availability of foreign exchange reserves (more than $ 4,000 billion).

Additionally, as demonstrated by the visit of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu to Beijing the Russian-Chinese cooperation will be strengthened in other fronts such as that of the military cooperation, which could be implemented considering common concerns related to cited US Pivot to Asia. As announced by Shoigu during 2015 there will be Russian-Chinese joint naval exercises not only in the Pacific, but also in the Mediterranean Sea.

This is a deliberate long-term Russian strategy to leave behind cooperation with Europe and United States or is a merely tactic searching a revitalization of relations with the West? It’s likely that Russia contemplates strengthening of partnership with Beijing as a useful alternative to relationship with Europe, but also to counterbalance US role in Asia-Pacific. However, the whole scenario is more multifaceted, given the complexity of Sino-US relations and the economic interdependency between Washington and Beijing.

Tensions between Russia and West could be exploited to its advantage by China. Given the all picture, another point to consider is in fact that China does not intend to completely sever its relations with Washington coming to a strategic rivalry between blocks typical of Cold War period. The complexity of Sino-American relations is evident, given the value of economic cooperation and common concerns on various global issues (Islamic terrorism, the future of Afghanistan, Iran’s nuclear issue and agreements on global warming). The current global context is not characterized by the presence of ideological opposing blocs, but can be rather be described as an evolving multipolar system characterized by power centers interdependent with an increasingly significant role of Asian countries.

The long-term synergy between India and Russia

After China, Moscow may look to other alternatives to Europe for its natural resources exportations, considering a strengthening of relations with Japan, South Korea and India.

In the specific case of India, the Sino-Russian energy pact could be followed by a similar cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi. Narendra Modi, the new prime minister of India in charge from last May 2014, is searching to improve relationships with many global and regional actors, like United States, China and Japan. Russia is another important partner, to which current India’s government looks with deep attention in a changing international environment. At the same time it’s thanks to Vladimir Putin that from the end of nineties Russia-India strategic partnership had new force after the fall of Soviet Union.

A stronger Indo-Russian energy relation could significantly change the political equilibriums of Asian continent. This kind of cooperation would be focused on natural gas and in particular in the importation by India of LNG, despite the need of infrastructural improvements in Indian and Russian territories. Since India has limited reserves of natural gas, it would be for New Delhi a concrete opportunity to diversify its energy supply and a necessary provision in order to support economic growth and meet rising domestic demand of energy resources. However energy collaboration could also involve Russian oil.

Nevertheless, there are a number of political issues that could hinder Indo-Russian energy cooperation. Russia negative relations with Western countries represent a counterproductive aspect for India and an expected tightening of Western sanctions against Russia linked to Ukrainian situation could affect the activity of certain Indian public companies with interests in dealing with Russian counterparts, such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) and Bharat Petroleum (BP). ONGC’s interests to drill shale oil in Siberia could be delayed because sanctions against Moscow make it more problematic to work with US counterparts, given the fact that last September 2014 Washington banned its companies from supporting exploration and productive activities in deep water, Artic offshore and shale projects in Russia.

This problematic situation could affect ONGC’s activity because it has contracted US firm Liberty Resources to drill four wells in the Bazhenov shale formation in Siberia, a project that now could be interrupted. ONGC has also a 20% stake in the Sakhalin 1 project in Russia and is in consultations with Rosneft over a stake in two east Siberian oil fields and it could look out for alternative solutions for drilling in the Bazhenov.

GAIL company, the nation’s largest natural gas distributor,has recently signed several agreements with some US corporations, for example the pact with US-based WGL for buying about 2.5 million tons of gas for twenty years. GAIL may incur therefore in problematic situations in the case of business activity with Russian firms, for example Gazprom held discussions with GAIL for deliveries also of Russian LNG.

While it’s true that India has other public companies that haven’t developed agreements outside of the Subcontinent and could benefit from an effective Indo-Russian energy cooperation, United States see adversely the developments of New Delhi-Moscow relations. Washington has publicly expressed its disappointment in the aftermath of the positive 15th Indo-Russian bilateral summit held last December in New Delhi, arguing that this is not a good time “to make business with Russia as usual”.

New Delhi has not approved Western sanctions against Russia, but at the same time it has not yet recognized Crimea as an effective part of Russia, though refusing to criticize openly Moscow. At this particular juncture it’s clearly emerging an Indian intention to maintain a substantial strategic autonomy and a difficult balance position in its approach towards United States and Russia.

Though, it’s at the same time clear that Washington has used and will continue to apply sanctions to commercial activities related to energy sector as a political tool to isolate opponents (for example Iran in the past for nuclear issue and Russia today for Ukrainian situation),pressuring its allies (for example India) to stop commercial activities with these antagonists States that have to change a specific political behavior according to Washington strategic calculus.

Iran’s case of few years ago is emblematic: New Delhi as a result of US pressure supported sanctions against Tehran regarding nuclear issue, partially spoiling Indo-Iranian traditional good cooperation. If it is true that in that case sanctions had United Nations assent and India is against unilateral sanctions, it is certainly not to be underestimated US irritation towards India’s attempts to improve relations with Russia.

At the last Indo-Russian bilateral summit the two countries signed twenty agreements – seven intergovernmental and thirteen commercial – including a strategic vision for a peaceful cooperation in the use of atomic energy. In summary, agreements have concerned energy sector, fields of technology and innovation and they promoted a wide-ranging engagement in commercial activities, considering the use of national currency for bilateral trade.

According to Vladimir Putin’s statements, Russia will support India in the construction of twelve nuclear power plants after the positive results related to Kudankulam nuclear power project and the oil company Rosneft will start to send ten tons of oil per year. Russian authorities offered to build in India one of the most advanced Russian helicopters and it will speed up the implementation of the joint project for the fifth-generation fighter jet. Russia aims also to participate in the plan for the realization of Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and facilitate the process of India’s accession to SCO.

However, trade is declining and it’s equal to $ 11 billion; for a comparison, Indo-Chinese bilateral commerce is about 70 billion, while Sino-Russian stands around 100 billion. In this sense, negotiations to promote a free trade agreement between India and Eurasian Union could be seen as a measure suitable to boost bilateral commerce. It’s also important that the project for North-South Transport Corridor (involving Russia, India and Iran) would be effectively implemented since the intentions of a commerce network that could integrate South Asia, Iran, Central Asia and Russia.

The geographical distance between India and Russia is significant, but last bilateral summit showed willingness in both sides to overcome this particular difficulty. The basic idea is to encourage a transformation of bilateral cooperation in a much better quality, observing also the international framework and supporting the development of a collective, balanced and inclusive security in Asia-Pacific, considering the legitimate interests of all States in a region led by the respect of international law.

Narendra Modi has recently affirmed the importance and priority assigned to Moscow in the strategic calculus of New Delhi, claiming that Russia will remain the most important partner of India in defense sector. The Indian government is also interested to enhance cooperation with Russia in spite of sanctions sponsored by Washington. However, it is important to underline that Modi is keen to have stronger defense ties with US – the main partner in the sector of arms imports in recent years during Manmohan Singh government – although it’s not possible at this moment to replace Russia’s role. At the same time Moscow is looking to Pakistan, which could become a strategic military partner of Russia. Another aspect is that Russian-Chinese partnership could be seen with concern by New Delhi: Russian technologies and systems are now exported also to China, not only to India, and a rising Chinese power could transform Asian balance of power, pushing India towards United States.

Nevertheless,India seems interested to promote a deep cooperation with Russia, which could aspire to become one of the countries most concerned in governmental campaign “Make in India” launched by Modi and designed to accelerate the economic growth of the country and particularly to support the Indian manufacturing sector by attracting foreign direct investment. In this case the nature of Indo-Russian cooperation could be transformed by purchaser-consumer structure to joint manufacturing partners.

The recent meeting between Putin and Modi, as well as summits and agreements between Russian and Chinese authorities are particularly important for the period in which they occurred, few months after the inauguration of a new government in India andwith the specter of a “New Cold War” between West and Russia, though the use of the term “Cold War” in order to describe the current standoff of US-Russian relations is not totally correct.

There are different expectations from Russian government that new course in India will fortify Indo-Russian partnership and many signals go in this direction; as well as it could be possible a strategic alliance with China, considering many fields of joint cooperation. The world order is changing and Western countries should take into account the complex network of relations involving Russia, India and China and other Asian countries. These regional powers are no longer only spokesman of an emergent world seeking voice in an anachronistic international system, considering for example India and China aspirations to reorganize board of United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Furthermore, Russia, India and China are not only characters of multilateral forums such as BRICS or G-20, but they are already proponents of deep bilateral relations and bearer of new systems of payment in international trade, considering the use of national currencies than could potentially change future global balances of power. These are clear exemplifications of the emergence of a multipolar world order.

*Francesco Brunello Zanitti, Southern Asia Research Program’s Director, and one of the Scientific Directors of the Italian Institute for Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (Istituto di Alti Studi in Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliarie – IsAG, Rome). Member of Editorial Committee of “Geopolitica” (IsAG’s journal) Rome.

First published by www.moderndiplomacy.eu

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Sri Lanka successfully concluded the much anticipated presidential election on January 8, 2015. The New Democratic Front (NDF), or the opposition alliance candidate Maithripala Sirisena, won the election. He polled 51.3 percent of the total votes cast and his rival, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, managed 47.6 percent of the votes. The successful conclusion of the election and the results were a victory for the people of the once vibrant democracy. The election was relatively free despite the abuse of resources and violence and the transition of power to the opposition coalition was smooth. Surprising many in Sri Lanka and abroad, President Rajapaksa left his official residence even before half of the results were formally announced.

Attempted Coup?

Insiders, along with some leading members of the new government now claim that Rajapaksa, sensing the defeat, attempted to suspend the counting of votes with the assistance of the armed forces.

According to this theory, his brother who was the Defence Secretary, played a major role in this conspiracy or what some call the attempted coup. So far, military coups have not succeeded in Sri Lanka. This time also — insiders maintain that the commanders of the armed forces refused to collaborate. The military thus far has not refuted the claims that the president sought the assistance of the armed forces to suspend the election. If true, this is a serious issue, which needs to be investigated carefully. One could expect more details to emerge in the coming weeks.

Largely due to the alleged attempted coup, Maithripala Sirisena was sworn in immediately as the 6th Executive President on January 9th and the United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremasinge became the Prime Minister. President Sirisena and his confidants are in the process of forming an all-party government. The problem, however, is that the opposition alliance does not have adequate seats in the 225 member parliament to successfully prove its majority when the national legislature reconvenes at the end of January. One way to handle this issue is to convince members of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), party of the former president, to join the new government. Reports indicate that some UPFA members have already agreed to support the new administration. Given the political culture of elected representatives in Sri Lanka, mustering adequate support to form and continue the administration will not be an impossible task.

Return of Rajapaksa

However, a turn of events took place when Rajapaksa suddenly came out of presumed retirement within one day of his retreat to his ancestral home and got his party supporters to declare him the president of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), dominant partner of the UPFA. Why did Rajapaksa return? So far, nobody from the Rajapaksa camp has given an explanation. One possible reason is the full comprehension of the election results. When Rajapaksa reached his ancestral home, he declared that he did not really lose the election, but was voted out by the “Tamils.” He probably meant minorities. It is possible that Rajapaksa quickly realized that he lost the election with a narrow margin and a substantial majority of the Sinhalese voted for him.

This factor is significant because the 51 percent of votes Sirisena received was generated by an ad hoc coalition. It is possible that at least some coalition partners will contest separately in the forthcoming parliamentary election. The JVP, which stayed out of the presidential race, will also contest. These votes therefore will scatter. Rajapaksa’s votes probably came from a unified coherent block of votes. In fact, they could be called Rajapaksa votes. If parliamentary elections are conducted in the near future, Rajapaksa may be able to win the majority of the seats in the national legislature and effectively challenge the Sirisena presidency. He only needed to retain control over his party, the SLFP. Hence, the return.

Rajapaksa’s Challenges

However, retaining control over the party in the long run will not be easy. There are two reasons for this.

One, Rajapaksa does not have a well-established or deep-rooted base within the SLFP. It was and to a certain extent is a party of the Bandaranaikes. In the last decade Rajapaksa effectively controlled the party solely due to his authority as the president of the state. Now he needs to compete for the control over the party with Chandrika Kumaratunga, daughter of the founding father of the party, S.W.R.D. Bandaraneike. Doing it without the powers and authority of the presidency will be challenging. The majority of the party stalwarts would probably prefer an alternative leadership due to the authoritarian style of governance by Rajapaksa.

Two, Maithripala Sirisena did not leave his party, the SLPF, to contest the presidential election. He was sacked by Rajapaksa. Sirisena maintains that he is still a member of the party and as the highest office holder, could claim right to the leadership. Therefore, this case could end up in a court of law. Sri Lankan judiciary is not fully independent and as proved under Rajapaksa, most of it became an extended arm of the government. The judiciary can easily be pro-incumbent. Therefore, if this case goes to the court, the decision probably will favor the incumbent president Maithripala Sirisena.

Consequences

Nevertheless, the return of Rajapaksa has the potential to (1) slow down the democratization process the opposition alliance promised and (2) exacerbate ethnic polarization. These problems will become profound if Rajapaksa manages to sustain his present agenda and politics.

The idea behind Rajapaksa’s return is to enter parliament and lead the opposition to the newly-elected administration. The Sirisena led coalition promised to remove authoritative presidential powers and strengthen parliament. Strengthening parliament would allow Rajapaksa to return to power in the long run. This fear might slow down the constitutional reform agenda of the present administration. Also, active politics of Rajapaksa might necessitate tough actions against the former president and his allies, for example, on issues such as corruption and abuse of power. Any serious action against the former president and his company could and would entail not so democratic measures.

If Rajapaksa continues in active politics he would most probably use racial slogans against the present government and fear of the LTTE as a main weapon. Immediately after the election, Rajapaksa openly complained that it was the Tamils who defeated him. Pro-Rajapaksa elements also unleashed a campaign suggesting military camps in the North were stoned by LTTE supporters and LTTE flags are flying in the region (again). The campaign was so strong that the military had to come out and deny these reports. Any concession by the present government to the Tamils will be depicted as a sellout of the motherland. Rajapaksa is a master of street politics. Therefore, a Rajapaksa led opposition will mobilize masses on to the streets with protests and marches forcing the administration into a muted mode on this front.

President’s Options

What are the newly elected president’s options? First, he cannot make tactical errors in the early days of his presidency. When taking oath as president, Sirisena stated that he will not contest again and will be a one-term president. He repeated the same statement in his address to the nation from Dalada Maligava. This would no doubt boost the confidence of Rajapaksa and his supporters because they now know that they only have to survive for six years and then they can take another shot at the presidency. All Sri Lankan executive presidents who contested the second term have won. If one goes by this logic, President Sirisena will be able to win another term.

Therefore, the general expectation would be for him to occupy the office of the president for twelve years. In twelve years Rajapaksa will be too old to compete and succeed. This assumption will prevent people from rallying behind Rajapaksa. Therefore, even if President Sirisena intends not to contest for another term it is better not to talk about it until he consolidates his position and authority.

Second, taking full control of the SLFP would prevent Rajapaksa from using parliament as a means to challenge the programs of the Sirisena administration. It is suggested that parliament will be dissolved after 100 days, probably in April 2015. Dissolving parliament without full control of the SLFP would not be a smart strategy. If the 2015 presidential election results are of any indication, Rajapaksa with the SLFP and most of the UPFA under his command will win most seats in parliament as a single entity. An immediate parliamentary election would most probably favor Rajapaksa. Therefore, Sirisena may want to postpone the idea of dissolving parliament until he takes full control of the SLFP and proves his credentials as an effective and democratic administrator, especially to those who did not vote for him in the just concluded presidential election.

Third, as a presidential candidate, Sirisena started his campaign with the slogan to abolish the executive presidential system. His manifesto however, talked about reforming or trimming the autocratic powers of the president. The chances are that the executive presidency will remain with some reform. A reform program would necessitate a constitutional amendment. If President Sirisena could muster the required two-thirds majority in parliament, the new administration could introduce an amendment reintroducing the two-term limit applicable to the present president and all former presidents. This would shut down any hope of Rajapaksa returning to power and provide space for the new president to press ahead with his democratization agenda.

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The ancient physician/alchemist, Paracelsus, said: “The dose makes the poison.” According to a new study published in PeerJ, even oxygen may fall prey to the above adage. While essential to human life, aspects of oxygen metabolism may promote cancer. Capitalizing on the inverse relationship of oxygen concentration with elevation, researchers found lower rates of lung cancer at higher elevations, a trend that did not extend to non-respiratory cancers, suggesting that carcinogen exposure occurs via inhalation.

In the United States, lung cancer is responsible for 27% of all cancer deaths, claiming an estimated 160,000 lives per year [1]. While smoking is linked to as many as 90% of lung cancer cases, this new study suggests that atmospheric oxygen may play a role in lung carcinogenesis.

Oxygen is highly reactive and even when it is carefully and quickly consumed by our cells, it results in reactive oxygen species (ROS) which can lead to cellular damage and mutation. While oxygen composes 21% of the overall atmosphere, lower pressure at higher elevations results in less inhaled oxygen – an effect which notoriously frustrates athletes at high altitudes. For example, across United States counties, elevation differences account for a 34.9% decrease in oxygen from Imperial County, California (-11 m) to San Juan County, Colorado (3473 m).

To investigate whether inhaled oxygen could be a human carcinogen, two researchers compared cancer incidence rates across counties of the elevation-varying Western US. They found that as county elevation increased, lung cancer incidence decreased. The effect was dramatic with incidence decreasing by 7.23 cases per 100,000 individuals for every 1,000 meter (3,281 feet) rise in elevation, equating to approximately 13% of the mean lung cancer incidence of 56.8 cases per 100,000 individuals. A variety of statistical techniques attested that the association was not due to chance.

The observed association does not prove that oxygen causes lung cancer. The study looked at groups of people rather than individuals and many variables in addition to oxygen levels are correlated with elevation. Accordingly the researchers performed a thorough analysis to investigate confounding potentials. Their model accounted for important risk and demographic variables, such as smoking prevalence and education. The association was consistent across population subgroups, states, and models that included a range of additional factors.

The researchers also evaluated breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer: the remaining three most common cancers in the United States. Elevation’s association with these non-respiratory cancers was either weak or absent, supporting the hypothesis of an inhaled risk factor. Furthermore, environmental correlates of elevation, such as sun exposure and fine particulate matter (a measure of pollution), produced vastly inferior predictions of lung cancer incidence compared to elevation itself.

Two past epidemiological reports, looking at elevation as a confounder, proposed that elevation-dependent oxygen variation was responsible for lower cancer mortality at high elevation [2, 3]. Unlike the two previous studies, the current study was specifically designed to assess the effect of elevation and benefited from a recent proliferation of high-quality county-level data. In total, the study relied on over 30 variables with sufficient coverage and precision to enable the inclusion of ~250 Western US counties. Using high resolution census data, the researchers calculated elevation values that reflected population dispersion within each county, thereby more accurately estimating the atmospheric exposure of each county’s populace. All resources were public, underscoring the importance of open data for future scientific discovery.

The research was published today in the peer-reviewed open access journal PeerJ. Both authors are strong advocates for transparent science and open-access publishing and in addition to the full release of the dataset and analysis, the peer review history is also being made available by PeerJ—a nascent practice that is gaining popularity.

The authors hope additional researchers will focus their efforts on oxygen’s role in human carcinogenesis. Analysis of diverse regions and individual-level datasets would contribute further epidemiological evidence. Ultimately, completely-controlled, experimental investigation using models of carcinogenesis will be critical to our understanding of the phenomenon.

If future analyses confirm oxygen-driven tumorigenesis, the medical implications could be large. For example, as the authors explain, “were the entire United States situated at the elevation of San Juan County, CO (3473 m), we estimate 65,496 fewer new lung cancer cases would arise per year.” While the authors do not expect or recommend individuals to relocate based on this finding, identifying a universal and major risk factor could provide new insights into lung cancer etiology. From these insights, better treatments and preventative measures may arise.

Notes:
[1] Siegel R, Ma J, Zou Z, Jemal A (2014) Cancer statistics, 2014. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians. doi:10.3322/caac.21208

[2] Weinberg CR, Brown KG, Hoel DG (1987) Altitude, radiation, and mortality from cancer and heart disease. Radiation Research. doi:10.2307/3577265

[3] Van Pelt WR (2003) Epidemiological associations among lung cancer, radon exposure and elevation above sea level. Health Physics. pubmed:13678279

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Spanish President Mariano Rajoy attended the ceremony at Zarzuela Palace during which the new State’s Attorney General, Consuelo Madrigal Martínez-Pereda, was sworn in before His Majesty the King of Spain.

The Minister for Justice, Rafael Catalá, acted as Commissioner for Oaths. The ceremony was also attended by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and President of the General Council of the Judiciary, Carlos Lesmes.

The Council of Ministers proposed that Consuelo Madrigal be appointed to the post of State’s Attorney General on 19 December after the resignation of her predecessor, Eduardo Torres-Dulce, was accepted. After receiving a favourable report from the General Council of the Judiciary and being interviewed by the Justice Committee of the Lower House of Parliament, she was named State’s Attorney General by the Council of Ministers on Friday, 9 January.

Consuelo Madrigal, the first woman to hold this post in Spain since the transition to democracy, has a Degree in Law from the Complutense University of Madrid. She joined the Public Prosecution Service in 1980 and, until now, was Head of the Public Prosecutor’s Office for the Juvenile Jurisdiction.

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The Burmese government should accept the United Nations call to amend the discriminatory law that deprives Rohingya Muslims of Burmese citizenship, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday in a letter to President Thein Sein.

On December 29, 2014, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on the Burmese government to amend the 1982 Citizenship Law so that it no longer discriminates against the Rohingya. Successive Burmese governments, including the current administration of Thein Sein, have used the law to deny citizenship to an estimated 800,000 to 1.3 million Rohingya by excluding them from the official list of 135 national races eligible for full citizenship.

“Burma’s discriminatory citizenship law not only deprives Rohingya of citizenship, but for decades has encouraged systematic rights violations,” said Brad Adams, Asia director. “Amending the law to bring it in line with international standards is the first step for resolving this long-standing human rights abomination.”

Human Rights Watch has long documented serious abuses of Rohingya in Burma, including ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.

The Burmese government should request assistance from the UN to amend the citizenship law to meet international standards. This would include providing Rohingya full citizenship on a non-discriminatory basis and ensuring that children are never made stateless. The category of “associate citizen” and other forms of second-class citizenship that give local officials legal tools and bureaucratic latitude to deny minority groups their full rights should promptly be eliminated.

“The appalling treatment of the Rohingya is a major blight on the Burmese government’s efforts to bring human rights reform,” Adams said. “Failing to redress the misery inflicted by government policies on the Rohingya is a recipe for prolonged repression.”

Sectarian violence between ethnic Arakanese Buddhists and Rohingya and other Muslims erupted twice in 2012, leading to approximately 167 deaths and widespread property destruction. A second round of violence in October 2012 resulted in government-backed crimes against humanity amounting to a campaign of ethnic cleansing aimed to drive the Rohingya from urban areas of Arakan State. There remain over 140,000 internally displaced Rohingya and Arakanese in camps throughout Arakan State. Many Rohingya have been receiving only rudimentary and inadequate assistance due to government restrictions and Arakanese ultra-nationalist intimidation against international aid workers.

The March-April 2014 census conducted by the Burmese government with assistance from the United Nations Population Fund did not enumerate people who self-identified as Rohingya. Preliminary results released in August estimated that 1.09 million people were not counted.

In response to the prolonged displacement, the government formulated a draft Rakhine Action Plan, which was disclosed by the media in September 2014. The plan contained discriminatory provisions that could, if enacted, ensure long-term segregation of displaced Rohingya and enshrine statelessness as a national policy. Months after a promised release, the Rakhine Action Plan has yet to be made publicly available, which adds to concerns in affected communities.

Thein Sein needs to ensure that any “action plan” to address displacement and other humanitarian issues in Arakan State does not include forced relocation, segregation of ethnic groups, or measures in violation of international human rights law. Instead, the government should establish conditions and provide the means to allow displaced persons to return voluntarily, in safety and with dignity, to their homes or other places of voluntary resettlement.

“The Burmese government is planning policies that will enshrine permanent segregation and denial of basic freedoms for the Rohingya,” Adams said. “Concerned governments shouldn’t be playing along with this charade, but insisting on the granting of full citizenship on the basis of equality under the law.”

The post Burma Needs To Amend Biased Citizenship Law, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Andrew Topf

The collapse of the oil price has created losers and winners, and like every major movement in a commodity sector, the trick for investors is figuring out which side of the trade to be on. The most obvious victim of the slide in Brent and WTI prices over the last 6 months has been the major oil producers. Holders of these equities have seen price slides up to 33 percent. The question for oil company investors now is how to determine which of these companies are prepared to weather a sustained period of oil prices around $50 a barrel, or worse. Inevitably, those companies with high debt levels combined with high operating costs will be the first to get washed away. In contrast, low-leveraged companies with attractive cost structures are likely to survive. These companies will gain when the oil price comes back, and are the ones that investors should be eyeing right now.

But stock picking isn’t the only way to make money out of the butchered oil price. Here are 5 ways to position yourself for either a recovery or a further deterioration of the oil market, depending on where you place your bet.

1. Buy low-cost, low-debt producers

Oil production is, to say the least, a costly business. The cost of finding and “lifting” a barrel of oil out the ground varies between $16.88 in the Middle East to $51.60 offshore in the United States, according to the US Energy Information Administration. An analysis by Citi published by Business Insider shows that a significant amount of US shale oil production will be challenged if Brent prices move below $60 (Brent is currently at $49), and that companies are canceling projects that require prices above $80 a barrel to break even.

In this difficult price environment, investors want to buy companies that can produce at a lower rate than their competitors and do not have significant debts they need to service while having to accept lower commodity prices. Here are three possibilities:

Crescent Point Energy (NYSE, TSX:CPG): A conventional oil and gas producer with assets in Canada and the United States, Crescent Point can pull oil out of the ground at a cheaper rate than its Canadian oil sands rivals. Despite cutting spending by 28 percent in 2015 compared to last year, the Saskatchewan-focused firm is still planning to increase average daily production to 152,000 barrels. Crescent Point has a solid balance sheet, with net debt totaling $2.8 billion as of Sept. 30, against a market value of $11.55 billion. CPG also offers a very attractive 10.64% dividend at its current share price, leading to the speculation that its dividend could be cut if low oil prices persist. However, Crescent Point has stated that it will only cut its dividend as a last resort and has other levers at its disposal, including borrowing through one of its credit facilities or further reducing its capital budget later this year.

Husky Energy (TSX:HSE): Having gotten clobbered 25 percent over the last six months, partly due to cost overruns at its Sunrise oil sands project, upstream and downstream behemoth Husky now offers a respectable 4.69% dividend for buy and hold investors. Husky is pulling in the reins on spending, trimming $1.7 billion off its capital budget in 2015, mostly at its Western Canadian oil and gas operations. A third of Husky’s production in 2015 was natural gas, which has held up better than oil, and should provide smooth earnings going forward. The company will also get a bump in cash flow from its Liwan project in the South China Sea. This joint venture with Chinese company CNOOC is in its second phase and Husky will receive a 50 percent price premium on the gas compared to North American prices.

Suncor Energy (NYSE, TSX:SU): The Canadian oil sands giant has been a lean machine since scrapping its $11.6-billion upgrading plant back in 2013. As The Motley Fool pointed out in a recent piece, Suncor has dropped its operating costs from $37 per barrel in 2013 to $31.10 in the last quarter. The company is not being strangled by a high debt load as it contends with lower margins. SU had about $6.6 billion in debt compared to nearly $42-billion in shareholder equity as of Sept. 30, one of the lowest debt ratios in the industry, notes Motley Fool. Lastly, investors with a long view can take comfort from Suncor’s respectable 3.17% dividend.

2. Shift your individual stock holdings to an energy ETF

Picking energy stocks is tough at the best of times, let alone during this volatile, catch-a-falling-knife environment. Shifting to an energy ETF might be a better way to hedge oil risk right now. One possibility is the iShares S&P TSX Capped Energy Index Fund (XEG). The index includes energy stocks listed on the TSX, with the weight of any one company capped at 25 percent of the market cap of the index. Owning the ETF may be a good way to capture a short-term bounce in the energy market if momentum swings to the upside.

3. Short the oil price.

The time to begin shorting oil would have been 6 months ago, but those who believe crude has further to fall could still earn some gains if they time a short correctly. One way to do that is to purchase an inverse oil ETF. Zacks has a good article on 4 possibilities, including the popular ProShares Ultrashort DJ-UBS Crude Oil ETF (SCO). Another is the Horizon BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF (HOD). This derivative-based fund resets its leverage daily, making it a complex instrument that should only be used by experienced traders. An investor who bought HOD back in June would have realized a 6-month gain of 264.5%.

4. Short the service companies.

Oil producers have revenue coming in even though the price of oil is down. Oilfield service companies are beholden to producers to drill and service new and existing wells, making them especially vulnerable to falling prices. When the majors cut their capex budgets, oilfield service companies feel the pain. Hedge funds started shorting oilfield service companies in November, with CGG, Fugro and Seadrill among the most shorted stocks in Europe, according to Markit data quoted by Reuters. US-based short candidates include Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) and National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE:NOV).

5. Buy transportation stocks.

Lower prices for gasoline, bunker fuel and jet fuel have made winners out of airlines, shipping and trucking companies. Two examples are Delta Airlines, up 27.2% since June, and Canadian regional carrier WestJet (TSX:WJA), which has gained 19.2% in the same period. Transportation logistics companies such as TransForce Inc. (TSX:TFI), Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA), Echo Global Logistics (NASDAQ:ECHO) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT) may also be worth a look, although the dividend payouts on these companies tends to be meager or non-existent compared to the oil majors.

The author does not hold positions in any of the above-mentioned equities. Due diligence is recommended before making any investment decisions.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/5-Ways-to-Play-the-Oil-Price-Plunge.html

The post Five Ways To Play The Oil Price Plunge – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

When levees fail, either naturally or as an intentional breach, as was the case on the Mississippi River in 2011, an orchestrated effort is made to remove or repair flood-damaged homes and other structures. A University of Illinois soil scientist believes that an equivalent effort should be coordinated to assess soil damages, including how flooding has affected soil productivity and land used for agriculture.

“The United States Army Corps of Engineers, the Mississippi River Commission, and the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service should develop an agreement to immediately update the soil survey maps, conduct a land scouring and deposition survey (commonly done now by USDA, NRCS), and create a soil conservation plan to ensure a rapid federal response after every levee breach and subsequent flooding event,” said Ken Olson.

“This should be part of the federal government emergency response to a natural disaster. Disaster and emergency relief funds are now being used for restoration and repair work, including opening drainage and road ditches by removing sediment, levee repairs, crater lake filling, restoration of land-scoured areas adjacent to the levee breaches, and sand deposit removal from fields next to the crater lakes.”

Olson led a team of scientists in a study of a 195-acre O’Bryan Ridge gully field area in Missouri and found that the area suffered a permanent loss of 30 percent of its agricultural productive capacity. After reclamation in spring of 2013, the middle and lowest parts of the gullies were still not suitable for row crops. In spring of 2014, many of the ponds were drained, additional ridgetop topsoil and subsoil were used to fill in more of the gullies, which reduced the sloping acreage. More of the field was returned to soybean production each year but with significantly lower soybean yield potential.

Olson said that if the soil survey is immediately updated after every levee breach and subsequent flooding event the damage assessment will help agency technical staff, local leadership, and farmers. They would then have the information they need to make decisions and develop strategies to return the gully field lands to agricultural production or alternative land uses and to address future flood events.

“With the increase in extreme weather events, there is an increased likelihood of future use of the New Madrid Floodway to manage Mississippi River flooding,” Olson said. “The soil damages and gully fields on O’Bryan Ridge will happen again and require more costly restoration.”

Olson cautioned that the current repair and restoration efforts are restoring some of the lost soil productivity and production capacity but restoration efforts won’t prevent a repeat of the 2011 soil damages.

“The new farmland that was created is either too erosive or too low in soil productivity and is no longer suited to continuous soybean production without conservation practices and a crop rotation,” Olson said. “A terrace system and contour farming with grassed waterways will likely be needed to retain production under continuous soybean on any remaining sloping lands on the tract.”

Olson added that no-till management doesn’t provide a mechanical method to eliminate annual rills, which can quickly turn into new gullies—as happened in 2013. Planting cover crops after row crops could make the soil less vulnerable to future flooding and subsequent water erosion, as well as offer the added benefit of sequestering soil organic carbon.

“Ironically, if the 195-acre gully field on O’Bryan Ridge had grassed waterways on the sloping soils, had been planted to winter wheat in the fall of 2010, or if the soybean field had a cover crop and/or forages when the flooding occurred in May of 2011, the land scouring and gully formation would have been greatly diminished,” Olson said.

The post Rescuing Farmland After A Flood appeared first on Eurasia Review.

While it is widely known that “huffing” – inhaling organic solvents or propellants to achieve a “high” – is extremely dangerous, new products being sold as “poppers” and distributed throughout the US, primarily to men who have sex with men (MSM), actually contain harmful solvents and propellants and pose the same health risks as huffing.

In their article titled “Sometimes Poppers Are Not Poppers: Huffing as an Emergent Health Concern among MSM Substance Users”, authors Timothy M. Hall MD PhD, Steven Shoptaw PhD, and Cathy J. Reback PhD point out that these products marketed as “poppers” are not equivalent to conventional poppers, which are based on alkyl nitrites and related to the medication amyl nitrite.

Traditional poppers, originally garnering the nickname through glass ampoules that “popped”, have been popular among MSM due to its mild psychoactive effects and relaxing of smooth muscle, used to enhance sexual experience. The new products, with exciting and enticing brand names such as “Maximum Impact” can instead cause the damaging health effects associated with less benign inhalants – a rare but fatal arrhythmia in some individuals known as “sudden sniffing death”, delirium in the short term, potentially permanent impairment in memory and executive functioning, and neuropathy.

There has been essentially no recognition in the LGBT or mainstream press about these huffing solvents now being marketed as “poppers”. These substances received little attention in addiction textbooks, and searches in PubMed and Google fail to turn up systematic reporting on the issue. The use of these inhalants was found by the authors to be on the rise, however, when surveying Los Angeles informants, searching internet sites, and reading drug-related message boards. Depictions of huffing poppers have been seen in MSM-oriented online pornography since 2010.

MSM can easily be introduced to these products through sexual partners without realising the substances they are inhaling. Clinicians must also recognize the increased risk in inhaling solvents over alkyl nitrite.

To emphasize the need for education about these potentially dangerous “poppers”, Timothy M. Hall MD PhD said, “Clinicians are taught almost nothing about regular nitrite poppers. They’re little more than a footnote at the back of most addiction textbooks, lumped in with sniffing glue and huffing aerosols, even though the physiologic effects are quite different. Gay and bisexual men, on the other hand, have little exposure to huffing but tend to think of nitrite poppers as fairly benign. There’s a real risk here for MSM to be taking a much more harmful substance than they’re expecting, and for clinicians not to recognize the difference.”

The post The Dangers Of ‘Poppers’ Under-Reported appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Negotiators shouldn’t always try to keep their cool during a heated meeting. Trying to suppress their anger about important points related to the negotiations could, in fact, cause them to lose the focus of discussions, says Bo Shao of the University of New South Wales in Australia, who led a study in Springer’s Journal of Business and Psychology.

Much is known about the impact of how anger is experienced and expressed in negotiations, but not necessarily about the role that the suppression of heated emotions has in such situations. Shao and his fellow researchers therefore examined how and when anger suppression affects negotiators’ mental states and indirectly also their performance. The study is also one of the first to consider the role that the source of anger plays in negotiations.

Given the growing popularity of e-commerce and virtual teams in the economy, computer-mediated negotiations are becoming more common to resolve conflicting interests. In an online negotiation experiment, 204 undergraduate students from a university in the United States were enrolled to participate. The intervention lasted 20 minutes and participants filled out a questionnaire afterwards. In the part of the experiment that tested the influence of an anger source, nearly half of the participants were made to feel heated emotions unrelated or incidental to the negotiation. This was done by showing them a video clip of a bully in action.

To test the influence of anger that is related to the issue at hand, the person with whom the participants negotiated online was intentionally provocative throughout the negotiations. This included using tactics such as telling the other side what to do, labelling their behaviors negatively, making accusations of intentional violations, and blaming the other.

It was found that negotiators did not necessarily become mentally exhausted when they tried to suppress their anger. Instead, they lost focus on the matters at hand if they tried to quash their feelings about issues that were integral to the discussions. The same did not happen if the negotiators bottled up their infuriation about an incidental matter. This shows that the source of emotions can play an important role in regulating feelings.

“These findings cast doubts on the belief that negotiators should always suppress their anger,” said Shao. “To be effective, negotiators should be aware when it is detrimental or not to do so, and adopt strategies that help them maintain their focus.”

The post Repressing Anger About Important Matters Makes Negotiators Lose Focus appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(Civil.Ge) — Georgia’s President Giorgi Margvelashvili expressed hope that government members will attend his annual state of the nation address in Parliament in Kutaisi in February.

Government members were not present at President Margvelashvili’s first annual address in Parliamet last year.

“I hope that last year’s occurrence, when the government was not able to be present at the presidential address, will not reoccur this year, because it brought nothing good either to our state or to the image of our state internally or internationally,” President Margvelashvili said on January 13.

“I hope that although the Parliament is in Kutaisi, the government will find time to be present at this address,” he said.

The post Georgia: President Hopes Government Won’t Snub His State Of Nation Address appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Sultan al-Barei

Saudi Arabia stepped up security on its border with Iraq following last week’s suspected “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) attack on Suweif border post, which drew widespread condemnation.

The January 5 attack at dawn killed the commander of Saudi Arabian border guards in the Northern Province, Brig. Gen. Awdah Mouawad Al-Balawi, and two guards, alarabiya.net reported.

The Saudi Interior Ministry identified four attackers, all Saudi nationals who were killed during clashes at the post.

Saudi security forces launched large-scale campaigns in the Arar region late on Wednesday that led to the arrest of a number of people suspected of links to the incident, Al-Hayat newspaper reported.

The attack underscored the urgent need to continue fighting terrorist groups, ISIL in particular, ideologically, militarily and in the media, said King Saud University media professor Salman Dhahi, who specialises in the evolution of social networking through modern media means.

“As long as there are youth who are deluded in the name of religion, there will be an ever-heightened need to fight ISIL’s media and ideology, […] particularly as ISIL’s media machine continues to spread its poisons among Arab and Western youth and delude them into thinking that joining the group and following its orders and dark views is an implementation of Islamic teachings,” Dhahi said.

“Therefore, spreading correct and moderate Islam has become necessary in this war, in which there is no room for complacency or indifference,” he said.

ISIL’s sharia fallacies must be firmly addressed through real dialogue with those who have been deluded by such groups, he said.

“What happened at the Saudi border affirms the correctness of Saudi Arabia’s decision to participate in the international coalition’s campaign against terrorism,” said former Saudi military attaché Maj. Gen. Mansour al-Shihri.

‘Enormous Task’

Saudi Arabia is participating in airstrikes alongside a number of other Arab and Western countries, and reinforcing the border with Iraq with thousands of guards, who have detected and eliminated ISIL elements before they could infiltrate Saudi territory, he said.

Al-Shihri said border guards play a crucial role in the fight against terrorism, calling on Saudi society to support them.

“The close relationship between the security forces and Saudi society will be an impenetrable bulwark in confronting ISIL and others who hold terrorist views, such as al-Qaeda and others,” al-Shihri said.

The task laid on the shoulders of Saudi security agencies is enormous given that the border with Iraq is 814 kilometres long and ISIL elements are spread across a number of border areas, he said.

The attack on the Saudi border guards came as part of a plan of “death, horror and destruction” which “terrorist groups” seek to sow throughout the region, “particularly as the Arab and international noose is tightening in Syria and Iraq”, said Umm al-Qura University comparative jurisprudence professor Abdullah al-Muqrin.

The military campaign against terrorist groups must be accompanied by a dissemination of correct Islamic thought among youth, al-Muqrin told Al-Shorfa.

Saudi Arabia’s Council of Senior Scholars condemned the attack shortly after it occurred, with its secretary general saying in a statement, “This vicious criminal attack is a form of terrorism, which is a major crime, and injustice and aggression prohibited and criminalised by Islamic sharia.”

The attack reaffirms the council’s previously-stated position: that it supports the Saudi government’s “pursuit of those who belong to terrorist criminal groups and uncovering of those who belong to ISIL or al-Qaeda and others”, Sheikh Fahd bin Saad al-Majed said.

“Everyone should co-operate to eradicate this serious threat,” he added.

The post Saudi Arabia Calls For Solidarity With Security Forces Against Islamic State appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Pope Francis on Wednesday canonized Joseph Vaz, Sri Lanka’s first saint, praising the 17th century priest’s love for the Sri Lankan people, his “missionary zeal” and his example for all Christians.

“Leaving behind his home, his family, the comfort of his familiar surroundings, he responded to the call to go forth, to speak of Christ wherever he was led,” the Pope said in his homily.

“Saint Joseph knew how to offer the truth and the beauty of the Gospel in a multi-religious context, with respect, dedication, perseverance and humility. This is also the way for the followers of Jesus today.”

The post Sri Lanka: Pope Francis Canonizes Nation’s First Saint appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ana Echagüe*

Saudi Arabia is trying to manage instability by clamping down domestically on any expression of dissent and helping prop up fellow authoritarian states such as Egypt and Bahrain. It is continuing its struggle for regional power and influence with Iran, in part via proxies in third countries such as Syria. In the fight against the transnational threat represented by the Islamic State (IS), Saudi Arabia has cooperated with the United States (US) and joined the anti-IS coalition.

The unifying theme bringing together its diverse coping mechanisms is a more active and, at least in tone, more aggressive foreign policy. Disappointed with its traditionally close relationship with the US, which Riyadh now deems untrustworthy, Saudi Arabia is trying to market itself as the leader of a fellow community of Sunni states.

Scrambling to contain threats

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is surrounded by disorder: in Bahrain to the east, Yemen to the south, Syria to the west and Iraq to the north. Unsettled by the political instability derived from the Arab uprisings, Riyadh’s threat perceptions are further magnified by two particular characteristics, one domestic and one regional.

In Saudi Arabia, state interest is conflated with regime security. This means that regime survival is the defining characteristic of both domestic and foreign policies. The regime is as concerned with domestic risks to its power as with external threats, and this often determines its alliance and foreign policy choices. The Saudi crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, including its designation as a terrorist organization, can be seen in this light, as the regime is extremely fearful of political sentiments being awakened through transnational ideological platforms such as political Islam.

Regionally, Saudi Arabia’s threat perception is driven by its competition with Iran for the dominant geopolitical role. Saudi Arabia’s concerns over Iran predate the Arab uprisings, and were exacerbated by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent change in the balance of power in Iran’s favor. They have been further aggravated by the potential nuclear agreement between the West and Iran, which would likely result in Tehran adopting a more prominent regional role. Competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran is played out in third states through military, financial, and ideological support. Saudi actions in Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon can be mainly understood within this context.

Pragmatic attempts to ensure its own regime survival, promote regional stability or expand its influence have led the Saudis to adopt a whole range of measures. Their main aim is to contain the spread of Iranian influence, the perceived threat posed by Muslim Brotherhood ideology and that of salafi jihadism. This has led the regime to adopt an unprecedented level of activism, moving beyond its usual recourse to its deep pockets to military interventions in Bahrain and Syria.

Instability in Egypt rattled Riyadh, since the Saudis see Egypt as a key state for balancing Iranian influence – which explains the unconditional Saudi support for the current Sisi government. The Saudis, together with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have pledged more than $20 billion (in loans, grants and oil) in aid to Egypt since the 2013 coup.

Saudi preoccupation with Syria is also a function of its concern over Iran’s rising clout (Tehran is currently one of the main backers of the Assad regime). A friendly regime in Syria would re-establish a more favourable regional balance of power. After some initial hesitation, Saudi Arabia became the most vocal advocate of arming the Syrian opposition and the ouster of Assad. By November 2012, it was working with the US to support the insurgents in southern Syria, via Jordan. As Washington prevaricated, the Saudis became increasingly dissatisfied. After the Syrian army’s chemical attack in August 2013 and Washington’s refusal to respond with military strikes, Riyadh reportedly began to increase its support to selected rebel groups. Most recently, Saudi Arabia joined the anti-IS coalition (together with Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan). Nevertheless, Riyadh has been very vocal about its desire to make the fight as much about Assad as about IS, with little success.

In its immediate neighbourhood, Saudi Arabia has focused on countering any spread of the Arab spring revolutions. Within the Gulf, concern over protests in Bahrain and Oman led the other four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to provide a $20 billion economic package to help the two countries. Saudi Arabia also led the deployment of a GCC military force in Bahrain to help suppress the budding uprising. Attempts to close ranks with other monarchies by inviting Jordan and Morocco to become members of the GCC, while failed, signal the potential for an authoritarian monarchical axis. Likewise, Saudi Arabia’s calls for greater unity among the six GCC states were intended as a closing of ranks, not only to counter Iran but also to discourage any pressure for reform derived from the Arab uprisings.

In Yemen, concerns over stability led Saudi Arabia to spearhead a GCC initiative to ease former ally President Saleh out of power, in such a way as to affect as little as possible the existing balance of power. As that initiative has unravelled, insurgent Houthi forces have gained prominence and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains a threat. As a result, Riyadh currently seems at a loss as to how to react.

A more assertive approach

Saudi Arabia has adopted an uncharacteristically aggressive foreign policy, a significant departure from its traditional consensual and cautious approach. Its traditional soft power tools of diplomacy, use of media outlets, financial incentives, and religious credentials have been overshadowed by the deployment of military force to Bahrain and Syria (as part of the anti-IS coalition).

While numerous Saudi commentators attribute the change to the regime’s growing self- confidence, the most likely explanation is a sense of vulnerability. Saudi Arabia’s sense of insecurity was triggered by the US invasion of Iraq and the consequent upending of the regional balance of power. But the change in policy has been particularly noticeable since 2011 when Saudi Arabia became persuaded that the US was not ready to protect its erstwhile allies, such as Egypt.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

Disappointed with the actions, or lack thereof, of the West, Riyadh started advocating Arab solutions ‘to solve Arab problems’. But Saudi attempts to bolster its regional leadership have been erratic and the results unimpressive. For example, efforts to achieve greater unity and institutionalization of the GCC have so far faltered. However, the announced return in November 2014 of the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE to Doha, after their withdrawal in March of the same year, may be a sign that Saudi efforts will at last pay off. The diplomatic spat over Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been resolved (or papered over) in favour of presenting a united front in the face of regional challenges.

Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the US has traditionally been a pillar of its security strategy. However, the combination of the US ‘pivot’ to Asia, Washington’s refusal to take military action against the Assad regime in Syria and its ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran, has raised alarms in Riyadh.

The increasing production of shale oil in the US and the consequent reduced dependence on Gulf oil have deepened Saudi fears that its special relationship with the US, based on an exchange of oil for security, would irretrievably change. This has spurred discussions in Saudi Arabia about diversifying its security arrangements. However, there are no real contenders to replace the US, given Europe’s limited will and capacity for engagement in the region and China’s and Russia’s lack of appetite for a regional security role. For all its talk of independence from the US, Saudi Arabia is likely to follow in the broad wake of US policy even if it attempts some form of hedging with other actors.

Saudi Arabia is likely to continue trying to present itself as the Sunni regional leader in the fight against instability, extremism and Iran’s predatory actions. However, aside from overstating its capabilities, its new-found assertiveness is exacerbating sectarian tensions both domestically and regionally, and has marshaled few successes. Its contacts with Sunni tribes in Iraq have so far not encouraged an effective front against IS, and its military contribution to the anti-IS campaign in Syria has been limited, although valued for symbolizing regional support.

Calls for a greater focus on toppling Assad have also been unsuccessful so far, although it looks like the US might agree to two of Riyadh’s requests: a no-fly zone on the border with Turkey and increasing support to the moderate opposition. Given its continued zeal to get rid of the Assad regime, it seems unlikely that there will be détente with Iran, despite pledges by the foreign ministers of both countries to improve ties following their meeting in September 2014, the first since Iranian President Rouhani came to power.

In its immediate neighborhood, although it has helped stave off revolution in Bahrain, constant low-level instability could prove just as disruptive to both the Saudi and Bahraini regimes. Riyadh also seems to have lost control over the Yemen file, as that country inches towards state failure and civil war. Riyadh’s most solid looking front at the moment is with Egypt and the UAE.

Implications for Europe

Europeans have scant leverage over Saudi Arabia, but Europe should continue to support President Obama’s efforts to sign a nuclear agreement with Iran, even more so after the extension of negotiations to June 2015. The decision to extend the interim accord poses significant risks as the Republican-led US congress is likely to try to impose further sanctions on Iran, which could jeopardise the talks, while Iranian hardliners could also pose obstacles. An important aspect of a successful deal will be selling its merits to the Arab Gulf states, which so far fear that a deal will come at their expense.

This is perhaps one area where Europeans could engage, given the lackluster effort by the Obama administration so far to bring Saudi Arabia on board. France could use its strengthened relations with Riyadh to encourage a favorable reception by the kingdom of an agreement, especially since Paris has had the toughest position at the negotiations. Likewise, Europeans could lobby the US congress to refrain from imposing additional sanctions. A nuclear deal offers the best opportunity for the reintegration of Iran into the regional security system, perhaps opening the way for more engagement on areas of mutual interests, such as fighting IS, and on more contentious issues, such as Syria. Achieving a certain balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia could help minimize their competition by proxy, which has been so damaging to the region.

In Syria, Europe should support the United Nations’ latest initiative for ‘freezing’ the war and open a dialogue with Iran on this issue. Iran is not adamant about the survival of the Assad regime, and the March 2014 four-point plan for Syria presented by Tehran included the decentralization of power away from the presidency. While the distrust of Iran among regional actors is understandable, Saudi Arabia needs to understand that it is sometimes necessary to negotiate with your enemies. Tehran has signaled through statements by Rouhani that it may be ready to develop constructive relations on the regional crises, and this is an opportunity that Riyadh should seize.

In addition, Europe should voice its concerns over increased authoritarian practices that are suffocating civil society and leading to egregious human rights violations in the Gulf states and Egypt. Europeans, particularly France and the United Kingdom, should not let their commercial and security imperatives override basic human rights concerns, nor allow Gulf states to use the cover of fighting terrorism to crush any form of domestic dissent. Instead of just appealing to values, Europeans should frame their concerns along pragmatic lines related to regional stability; they should strongly communicate to Riyadh that repression will only breed further radicalism.

About the author:
* Ana Echagüe is senior researcher at FRIDE.

Source:
This article was published by FRIDE as part of its larger report, Challenges for European Foreign Policy in 2015. How others deal with disorder (PDF), edited by Giovanni Grevi and Daniel Keohane, and can be found on pages 79-86.

The post Saudi Arabia: Putting On A Brave Face – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Unfortunately, in many circles, anger has a bad reputation. There are several reasons for this. One reason is that we are scared when people are angry at us, so we try to scare people, especially children, out of being angry. By doing this, we hope to escape responsibility for our dysfunctional behavior.

Another reason that anger has a bad reputation is because it enables people to defend themselves against violence and other forms of abuse. But if we want obedient and hardworking students, reliable and pliant employees/soldiers and submissive law-abiding citizens, then we must terrorize people out of being angry. Social control is not easy with people who are powerful and you need your anger to be powerful.

A third reason that anger has a bad reputation is that anger is often confused with violence. But anger and violence are not the same thing. People who are violent are not angry; they are scared or, more accurately, terrified, and they use violence in a dysfunctional attempt to get what they need. See ‘Why Violence?‘ and ‘Fearless Psychology and Fearful Psychology: Principles and Practice‘

Anger is a vitally important evolutionary gift and without it we are perpetual victims. Anger has two primary evolutionary functions: to let us know when we are being threatened or attacked (whether by a more ‘subtle’ abuse or in an explicitly violent manner) while also giving us the power to respond effectively to this threat/attack.

The individual who is not afraid to be angry, will respond immediately, powerfully and, in virtually all cases, nonviolently to any threat or attack, warding off the attacking individual, for example, simply by clearly showing their anger (which is, of course, a clear defence in itself, and watching a snarling dog or wolf will readily convince you of the effectiveness of this form of defence).

In contrast, the individual who is afraid to be angry will either retreat inappropriately, use violence to ‘counter-attack’ (including in situations in which the ‘threat’ or ‘attack’ to which they are responding is actually an outcome of their own projection) or engage in vicarious and powerless acts of rebellion or interference.

What is a powerless act of rebellion? It is an act that is harmful to themselves, others and/or the Earth that is done in a way that allows the individual to either avoid responsibility (as would occur, for example, by dropping an item of rubbish, carrying out an act of vandalism or starting a wildfire where no one will see them) or to delude themselves that they will not be held accountable (as occurs, for example, when someone pretends that there is no connection between their unhealthy diet and their ill-health).

Similarly, an individual might engage in a powerless act of interference in the life of another as an unconscious manifestation of their suppressed anger. For example, if someone is angry because they feel that they are being forced to clean up after someone else, but this anger is fearfully suppressed and cannot be acted upon by raising and dealing with the conflict openly, then the person might half clean up but then leave all of the cleaning equipment in the way of the other person in an attempt to powerlessly ‘force’ that person to clean up after them.

More interestingly perhaps, an individual might engage in a powerless act of interference in their own life as an unconscious manifestation of their suppressed anger. How might they do this? And why? A person might get in their own way, for example, by being untidy, disorganised or by persisting in using dysfunctional equipment (rather than having it repaired). And they do this as an unconscious projection of one or both of their parents ‘getting in my way’ when they were a child. This ‘getting in my way’ usually occurs when the child is ‘held to account’ for making mistakes (that is, being inappropriately and unfairly treated as dysfunctional) but is not allowed to get angry about this unjust response to its ‘mistakes’. So, not allowed to get angry, the child (and later the adult) wants to ‘insist’ on doing what they want (dysfunctional or otherwise) because this represents them trying to learn to do things for themselves (and ‘getting away with’ making mistakes in doing so). Unfortunately, they are now trapped in this behaviour pattern because they cannot have the feelings, which are fearfully suppressed, that would allow them to restore more functional
behaviour.

Finally, the individual whose anger is warped by both their own fear and pain, will probably act in a vindictive manner, trying to inflict unnecessary or excessive violence on the person who is threatening or attacking them (again, including in situations in which this threat/attack might simply be a projection from their own past).

As these simple examples illustrate, if someone’s anger has been fearfully suppressed, the anger will manifest in a variety of dysfunctional ways. They might be violent as well because they lack the emotional capacity and skills to resolve conflict nonviolently. But, of course, whatever the problem, violence cannot solve it (although it might destroy particular symptoms of the problem).

Unfortunately, children are routinely denied functional outlets for their appropriate anger at adult abuse. They are also denied the meaningful outcomes that would arise if they were allowed to express their anger as part of their articulation of any grievance. So they do things like ‘niggle at’ or tease their siblings and friends, torment the family pet or smash toys.

So what do we do? If you feel angry, you should express your anger fully and completely but in a safe way. And you should give your child the same opportunity (including when they are angry with you). How? Here are some suggestions but you (or your child) will need to decide what will work best for you/them. Try screaming (into a pillow if noise is an issue). Or smash a bat or racquet into a mattress or cushion. Or punch a pillow or punching bag. Perhaps you should get an axe and chop wood (thinking about utterly destroying who/what is making you angry) until your anger has been vented.

If you feel angry you need to exert enormous physical effort to adequately express it. This might require considerable time for any one session and you might need to do a great many sessions (particularly if your anger is tapping into suppressed anger from your past). If you can set up a safe space for expressing anger, then do so. Whatever you do, however, don’t waste your time saying or writing ‘I feel angry…’. And don’t waste a moment of your life in an ‘anger management’ course. Anger, like all emotions, needs to be expressed, not ‘managed’ (that is, suppressed).

Moreover, and this is vitally important, the learning that comes from expressing your anger must be allowed to manifest in changed behaviour. You will find this challenging if your child realises they no longer want to go to school – see ‘Do We Want School or Education?‘ – so you have a simple choice: you can let your child realise their evolutionary potential or you can destroy them.

If we do not allow children to be angry when it naturally occurs (by terrorising them, one way or another, into not feeling and expressing their anger so that they can functionally alter their behaviour in response to it), then we systematically destroy their personal power and make them perpetual victims of the teachers and bullies at school, and their employers and others later in life.

In essence then, if you want a powerless, obedient child who submits to you, teachers and (later) employers while playing no part in resisting violence and exploitation (whether of themself or others), then just ensure that you frighten your child out of being angry so that they lack the courage to be the unique and powerful organism that evolution intended.

But if you want a powerful child who is deeply committed to social justice, then they must be unafraid of feeling and acting on their anger.

Strange as it may seem given the widespread and popular misconceptions about anger and violence, it is anger that drives our struggle for a just and peaceful world. If you wish to join this movement, you can sign the online pledge of ‘The People’s Charter to Create a Nonviolent World‘.

If we are scared of our anger, we are powerless and more likely to be violent.

The post The Importance Of Being Angry – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Following another disappointing year in 2014, developing countries should see an uptick in growth this year, boosted in part by soft oil prices, a stronger US economy, continued low global interest rates, and receding domestic headwinds in several large emerging markets, according to the World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report, released Tuesday.

After growing by an estimated 2.6 percent in 2014, the global economy is projected to expand by 3 percent this year, 3.3 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017 [1], predicts the Bank’s twice-yearly flagship. Developing countries grew by 4.4 percent in 2014 and are expected to edge up to 4.8 percent in 2015, strengthening to 5.3 and 5.4 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

“In this uncertain economic environment, developing countries need to judiciously deploy their resources to support social programs with a laser-like focus on the poor and undertake structural reforms that invest in people,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “It’s also critical for countries to remove any unnecessary roadblocks for private sector investment. The private sector is by far the greatest source of jobs and that can lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.”

The World Bank said that underneath the fragile global recovery lie increasingly divergent trends with significant implications for global growth. Activity in the United States and the United Kingdom is gathering momentum as labor markets heal and monetary policy remains extremely accommodative. But the recovery has been sputtering in the Euro Area and Japan as legacies of the financial crisis linger. China, meanwhile, is undergoing a carefully managed slowdown with growth slowing to a still-robust 7.1 percent this year (7.4 percent in 2014), 7 percent in 2016 and 6.9 percent in 2017. And the oil price collapse will result in winners and losers.

Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, due to four factors, said the World Bank. First is persistently weak global trade. Second is the possibility of financial market volatility as interest rates in major economies rise on varying timelines. Third is the extent to which low oil prices strain balance sheets in oil-producing countries. Fourth is the risk of a prolonged period of stagnation or deflation in the Euro Area or Japan.

“Worryingly, the stalled recovery in some high-income economies and even some middle-income countries may be a symptom of deeper structural malaise,” said Kaushik Basu, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “As population growth has slowed in many countries, the pool of younger workers is smaller, putting strains on productivity. But there are some silver linings behind the clouds. The lower oil price, which is expected to persist through 2015, is lowering inflation worldwide and is likely to delay interest rate hikes in rich countries. This creates a window of opportunity for oil-importing countries, such as China and India; we expect India’s growth to rise to 7 percent by 2016. What is critical is for nations to use this window to usher in fiscal and structural reforms, which can boost long-run growth and inclusive development.”

The World Bank said that on the back of gradually recovering labor markets, less budget tightening, soft commodity prices, and still-low financing costs, growth in high-income countries as a group is expected to rise modestly to 2.2 percent this year (from 1.8 percent in 2014) in 2015 and by about 2.3 percent in 2016-17. Growth in the United States is expected to accelerate to 3.2 percent this year (from 2.4 percent last year), before moderating to 3 and 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. In the Euro Area, uncomfortably low inflation could prove to be protracted. The forecast for Euro Area growth is a sluggish 1.1 percent in 2015 (0.8 percent in 2014), rising to 1.6 percent in 2016-17. In Japan, growth will rise to 1.2 percent in 2015 (0.2 percent in 2014) and 1.6 percent in 2016.

That said, according to the World Bank, trade flows are likely to remain weak in 2015. Since the global financial crisis, global trade has slowed significantly, growing by less than 4 percent in 2013 and 2014, well below the pre-crisis average growth of 7 percent per annum. The slowdown is partly due to weak demand and to what appears to be lower sensitivity of world trade to changes in global activity, finds analysis in the report. Changes in global value chains and a shifting composition of import demand may have contributed to the decline in responsiveness of trade to growth.

The World Bank said that commodity prices are also projected to stay soft in 2015. As discussed in a chapter in the report, the unusually steep decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014 could significantly reduce inflationary pressures and improve current account and fiscal balances in oil-importing developing countries.

“Lower oil prices will lead to sizeable real income shifts from oil-exporting to oil-importing developing countries. For both exporters and importers, low oil prices present an opportunity to undertake reforms that can increase fiscal resources and help broader environmental objectives,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of Development Prospects at the World Bank.

Amongst large middle-income countries that will benefit from lower oil prices is India, where growth is expected to accelerate to 6.4 percent this year (from 5.6 percent in 2014), rising to 7 percent in 2016-17. In Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, the fall in oil prices will help lower inflation and reduce current account deficits, a major source of vulnerability for many of these countries.

However, sustained low oil prices will weaken activity in exporting countries, said the World Bank. For example, the Russian economy is projected to contract by 2.9 percent in 2015, getting barely back into positive territory in 2016 with growth expected at 0.1 percent.

The World Bank noted that in contrast to middle-income countries, economic activity in low-income countries strengthened in 2014 on the back of rising public investment, significant expansion of service sectors, solid harvests, and substantial capital inflows. Growth in low-income countries is expected to remain strong at 6 percent in 2015-17, although the moderation in oil and other commodity prices will hold growth back in commodity exporting low-income countries.

“Risks to the global economy are considerable. Countries with relatively more credible policy frameworks and reform-oriented governments will be in a better position to navigate the challenges of 2015,” concluded Franziska Ohnsorge, Lead Author of the report.

Regional Highlights:

According to the World Bank, the East Asia and Pacific region continued its gradual adjustment to slower but more balanced growth. Regional growth slipped to 6.9 percent in 2014 as a result of policy tightening and political tensions that offset a rise in exports in line with the ongoing recovery in some high-income economies. The medium-term outlook is for a further easing of growth to 6.7 percent in 2015 and a stable outlook thereafter, reflecting a gradual slowdown in China, which will be offset by a pick-up in the rest of the region in 2016-17. In China, structural reforms, a gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and continued prudential measures to slow non-bank credit expansion will result in slowing growth to 6.9 percent by 2017 (from 7.4 percent in 2014). In the rest of the region, excluding China, growth will strengthen to 5.5 percent by 2017 (from 4.6 percent in 2014) supported by firming exports, improved political stability, and strengthening investment.

Growth in developing Europe and Central Asia is estimated to have slowed to a lower-than-expected 2.4 percent in 2014 as a sputtering recovery in the Euro Area and stagnation in Russia posed headwinds. In contrast, growth in Turkey exceeded expectations despite slowing to 3.1 percent. Regional growth is expected to rebound to 3 percent in 2015, 3.6 percent in 2016 and 4 percent in 2017 but with considerable divergence. Recession in Russia holds back growth in Commonwealth of Independent States whereas a gradual recovery in the Euro Area should lift growth in Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey. The tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the associated economic sanctions, the possibility of prolonged stagnation in the Euro Area, and sustained commodity price declines remain key downside risks for the region.

The World Bank said that growth in Latin America and the Caribbean slowed markedly to 0.8 percent in 2014, but with diverging developments across the region. South America slowed sharply as domestic factors, exacerbated by economic slowdown in major trading partners and declining global commodity prices, took their toll on some of the largest economies in the region. In contrast, growth in North and Central America was robust, lifted by strengthening activity in the United States. Strengthening exports on the back of the continued recovery among high-income countries and robust capital flows should lift regional GDP growth to an average of around 2.6 percent in 2015-17. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and a steeper decline in commodity prices represent major downward risks to the outlook.

Following years of turmoil, some economies in the Middle East and North Africa appear to be stabilizing, although growth remains fragile and uneven, said the World Bank. Growth in oil-importing countries was broadly flat in 2014, while activity in oil-exporting countries recovered slightly after contracting in 2013. Fiscal and external imbalances remain significant. Regional growth is expected to pick up gradually to 3.5 percent in 2017 (from 1.2 percent in 2014). Risks from regional turmoil and from the volatile price of oil are considerable; political transitions and security challenges persist. Measures to address long-standing structural challenges have been repeatedly delayed and high unemployment remains a key challenge. Lower oil prices offer an opportunity to remove the region’s heavy energy subsidies in oil-importing countries.

According to the World Bank, in South Asia, growth rose to an estimated 5.5 percent in 2014 from a 10-year low of 4.9 percent in 2013. The upturn was driven by India, the region’s largest economy, which emerged from two years of modest growth. Regional growth is projected to rise to 6.8 percent by 2017, as reforms ease supply constraints in India, political tensions subside in Pakistan, remittances remain robust in Bangladesh and Nepal, and demand for the region’s exports firms. Past adjustments have reduced vulnerability to financial market volatility. Risks are mainly domestic and of a political nature. Sustaining the pace of reform and maintaining political stability are key to maintaining the recent growth momentum.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth picked up only moderately in 2014 to 4.5 percent, reflecting a slowdown in several of the region’s large economies, notably South Africa. The World Bank said that growth is expected to remain flat in 2015 at 4.6 percent (lower than previously expected), largely due to softer commodity prices, and rise gradually to 5.1 percent by 2017, supported by infrastructure investment, increased agriculture production, and buoyant services. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks arising from a renewed spread of the Ebola epidemic, violent insurgencies, lower commodity prices, and volatile global financial conditions. Policy priorities include a need for budget restraint for some countries in the region and a shift of spending to increasingly productive ends, as infrastructure constraints are acute. Project selection and management could be improved with greater transparency and accountability in the use of public resources, the World Bank said.

[1] Using 2010 purchasing power parity weights, global growth would be 3.6 percent in 2015, and 4.0 percent for each of 2016 and 2017.

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The socio-economic impacts of Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone are far-reaching and persistent, according to two new World Bank Group reports.

Both countries continue to experience job losses, despite their differing health outlooks. These impacts have not been limited to the areas where infections have been the highest, which points to economy-wide slowdowns. As a result, many households have been forced to take short-term actions to cope, which can have substantial long-term effects on welfare.

“The Ebola virus itself must be eradicated- this is the number one priority,” said Ana Revenga, Senior Director for Poverty at the World Bank Group. “But its socio-economic side effects put the current and future prosperity of households in Liberia and Sierra Leone at high risk. We must pay careful attention to those who are most vulnerable to both health and economic shocks, and ensure that they are supported throughout and after the crisis.”

In order to capture the key socio-economic effects of Ebola, the World Bank Group and partners are undertaking high-frequency mobile phone surveys. In Liberia the surveys are conducted by the Gallup Organization in partnership with the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services, and in Sierra Leone, the data collection is led by Statistics Sierra Leone in partnership with Innovations for Poverty Action.

Liberia

The Liberian economy continues to shed jobs faster than they are replaced. According to the third round of the phone survey, nearly half of Liberian household heads remain out of work despite response-related jobs being created in the construction and health fields. The most recent job losses were predominantly among wage workers in urban areas, and come mainly from the private and non-governmental sectors. Contrary to those in the public sector, who continue to be paid despite being out of work, these newly unemployed represent lost income for households.

Women are particularly vulnerable as the labor market stagnates, since they work disproportionately in the hard-hit non-farm self-employment sector. Of those working at the baseline, 60 percent of women are not currently working, compared with 40 percent of men; and, women have been consistently more likely to be out of work compared with men.

There are new concerns about farmers’ ability to organize work teams given Ebola fears, reducing harvests. Among the households that had finished their harvest, over 80 percent reported that their harvest was smaller this year than last, and the main reason cited was an inability to work in groups due to the Ebola virus. This issue was also the main reason that the harvest was incomplete for the remainder of agricultural households.

Food insecurity persists across the country, and households continue to report not having enough money to afford rice, regardless of price. About three-quarters of households indicated that they were worried at some point in the previous week that they would not have enough to eat. Around two-thirds of households responded that they were not able to purchase enough rice to meet their needs in the previous two weeks, and nearly 80 percent of those cited a lack of money as the main reason rather than availability or high prices. Rice prices continue to be 40 percent above the January baseline.

Sierra Leone

In the first round of data collection, wage and non-farm self-employed workers saw the largest declines in employment in urban areas of Sierra Leone, with Ebola cited as one of the main reasons for not working. An estimated 9,000 wage workers and 170,000 self-employed workers outside of agriculture are no longer working since the July/August 2014 baseline. The percent of households engaged in a non-farm household enterprise that was no longer operating tripled from 4 to 12 percent and among those still operating these businesses, average revenue decreased by 40 percent.

These job losses have been caused mainly by the indirect effects of necessary preventive measures to restrict disease spread and by the general disruption to the economy caused by the outbreak. No differences were found in labor impacts between quarantined and non-quarantined districts, further highlighting the importance of economy-wide indirect effects.

Food insecurity is high as the harvest continues. There is no evidence thus far on negative impacts on agriculture due specifically to Ebola, but harvest activities are still ongoing and future rounds of data collection will track Ebola-related effects if and when they arise.

There is some evidence of a decrease in utilization of health services for non-Ebola conditions in Freetown. In particular, a much lower proportion of women in the capital reported post-natal clinic visits than in 2013. In the rest of the country, however, there is little evidence of such a decline.

“These high frequency surveys have been enormously helpful in bridging the gap between country-level growth analysis and the observations from those on the ground as part of the response,” says Kristen Himelein, the World Bank Group’s poverty economist for Liberia and Sierra Leone. “From a poverty perspective, we are particularly concerned about households being forced into coping strategies that may harm their long term prospects to improve welfare, and now we can follow this in almost real time.”

The continued mobile-phone surveys will allow for timely and robust monitoring of how Ebola is affecting economies and households in Liberia and Sierra Leone—with the aim of helping governments and other stakeholders address the most pressing socioeconomic issues as they arise and assist in planning for the eventual crisis recovery.

The World Bank Group said is mobilizing nearly $1 billion in financing for the countries hardest hit by the Ebola crisis. This includes $518 million from IDA, the World Bank Group’s fund for the poorest countries, for the emergency response, and at least $450 million from IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, to enable trade, investment, and employment in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

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Microsoft has criticized Google for highlighting a security flaw in Windows 8.1 before it had the time to fix it, Digital Spy said.

The computing giant’s security chief Chris Betz said that the search engine firm’s actions were more about one-upmanship than “principles”.

He wrote in a blog post: “We asked Google to work with us to protect customers by withholding details until Tuesday, January 13, when we will be releasing a fix.

“Although following through keeps to Google’s announced timeline for disclosure, the decision feels less like principles and more like a ‘gotcha’, with customers the ones who may suffer as a result.

“What’s right for Google is not always right for customers. We urge Google to make protection of customers our collective primary goal.”

Betz argues that public exposure of these flaws puts pressure on companies to scramble and push out a patch, sometimes prematurely.

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Beneath the cold waves of Lake Michigan rests an aging shipwreck, its wooden planks encrusted with brown-and-gray zebra mussels, that may be the remnants of a 17th-century ship called the Griffin, two Michigan-based treasure hunters say.

French explorer René-Robert Cavelier, Sieur de La Salle built the Griffin in 1679, but it was lost in Lake Michigan the same year.

In 2011, Michigan-based treasure hunters Kevin Dykstra and Frederick Monroe found a shipwreck as they were searching for the $2 million in gold that, according to local legend, fell from a ferry crossing Lake Michigan in the 1800s, they told WZZM, a western Michigan news station.

Their sonar caught a mass below, and Dykstra dove into the water to take video.

“I didn’t go down there with the expectation of seeing a shipwreck — I can tell you that,” Dykstra told Live Science. When he and Monroe later reviewed the video, they realized it might be the Griffin.

But other experts aren’t convinced that the wreck is the Griffin. Rather, it may be the remnants of a tugboat that was scrapped after “steam engines became more economical to operate,” said Brendon Baillod, a Great Lakes historian who has written scholarly papers on the Griffin.

The wreck’s discoverers agree that more evidence is needed.

State archaeologists reviewed the footage, and “They’ve been very diligent to say, ‘This is really interesting; these are some neat pictures,'” Dykstra said. “Can we call this the Griffin? Certainly not — not without a lot more information — but these are very compelling.”

La Salle sailed the Griffon through the Great Lakes and crossed into Lake Michigan in an effort to reach the mouth of the Mississippi River, Baillod said. But the explorer ran out of money, so he disembarked with the other expedition leaders, leaving the ship and its crew to pay off his debts with furs. La Sallenever saw the Griffin again.

La Salle returned to the area in 1682, to try again to locate the Mississippi’s mouth. But members of the Potawatomi tribe brought pieces of the ship to the explorer, including some moldy beaver furs and a pair of sailor’s britches, said Baillod, who translated La Salle’s journal from French to English.

The Native Americans told La Salle the crew planned to sail toward the Straits of Mackinac in stormy weather.

“The [American] Indians told the captain not to sail out, to wait the storm out, but he wouldn’t listen to them,” Baillod said. The captain lost control of the ship as strong winds blew it away from shore, southward, toward islands in the distance.

“They lost the ship from sight,” Baillod said, “and that’s the last anybody has ever seen the Griffin.”

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By Avinash Godbole

Mahindra Rajapaksa lost to his rival and one time ally Maithripala Sirisena in the Presidential elections held on 8 January 2015. Sirisena of the New Democratic Front (NDF) won 51.28 percent of the votes against the 47.58 percent secured by Rajapaksa of the United People’s Front Alliance. Given Rajapaksa’s popularity in the aftermath of the decisive victory against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the summer of 2009, Sirisena’s triumph in these elections has come as a surprise to many. But a peak below the surface brings out a different reality of the Sri Lankan political landscape.

China emerged as Sri Lanka’s most benevolent friend during the reign of Rajapaksa. This friendship reached its zenith when in September 2014 Xi Jinping became the first Chinese President to visit Sri Lanka. Between 2004 and 2014, domestic changes in Sri Lanka, coupled with China’s expanding global ambitions as well as capability, created a fertile ground for greater engagement between the two countries. This greater Chinese engagement with Sri Lanka was also facilitated by the inability of successive NDA and UPA governments to forge better relations with Sri Lanka in the defence arena – a consequence of the constraints imposed upon them by coalition politics. India limited itself to giving non-lethal weapons and humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka, whereas China emerged as a major defence supplier of that country.

The aftermath of victory over the LTTE was not exactly sweet as the all-out war had nearly drained the Lankan economy, while charges of human rights violations and the global economic slowdown led to reduced investments. Once again, it was Beijing that came to Colombo’s rescue. It is at this point that Rajapaksa adopted the Chinese model of growth – massive infrastructure investments in roads, energy, air and sea ports – which was moreover largely funded by Chinese banks. Since 2009, Sri Lanka has received a total of $4 billion from China in the form of aid, soft loans and grants. Nearly 70 per cent of infrastructure projects in the country have come to be funded by Chinese banks and institutions and are being built by Chinese companies. Sri Lankan observers have noted that these loans would have gotten stuck in legal work or environmental or some other regulations if they had been from the Asian Development Bank or the World Bank. However, the ease of process and the swiftness of work had also guided the Rajapaksa government to accept loans that were too costly for projects that had too long gestation periods. During the same time frame, 16 per cent of Sri Lankan imports have come to originate from China whereas Sri Lanka’s own exports to China remained stagnant at 1.2 per cent of its total exports. In contrast, Sri Lanka’s total exports to India rose from one to six per cent of its total exports during the same period.1

It is noteworthy that President Rajapaksa’s brother Basil Rajapaksa was Minister of Economic Development since 2010 and various political and media establishments in and outside Sri Lanka had raised concerns about the nature of Sri Lanka’s business ties with China. Chinese loans came with strict conditions, leading to benefits to Chinese companies which were in turn building these projects with a labour force brought in from China, many of whom were moreover believed to be convicts.2 Thus, Sri Lanka also experienced jobless growth, similar to the experience of many African countries where Chinese investment had increased exponentially in the last decade.

The opposition UNP led by Ranil Wickramasinghe had consistently raised questions about the functioning of the Rajapaksa government as well as about allegations of corruption and nepotism in this form of the growth model adopted. In the run-up to the elections, Wickramasinghe also pledged to scrap the ambitious $1.34 billion Colombo Port City project, funded, built and to be operated eventually by a Chinese lead consortium.3 How and whether the new government does that and what happens to the other Chinese investments in Sri Lanka remains to be seen. It will also be interesting to see if the allegedly hasty clearances and graft and cost overestimation allegations linked to Chinese investments are indeed probed by the incoming government. If the new government walks the talk in this regard, then the Sri Lankan economy should take a turn towards a more open, equitable, participatory and affordable development.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India

1. See, for example, Dinouk Colombage, “Sri Lanka’s surging cash reliance on China”, Al Jazeera, 26 August 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/08/sri-lanka-economy-reliance-china-infrastructure-20148256345589851.html (Accessed 26 August 2014).

2. See Udara Soysa, “Why does Sri Lanka need Chinese Convicts?”, The Sunday Leader , 18 July 2010, http://www.thesundayleader.lk/2010/07/18/why-does-sri-lanka-need-chinese-convicts/ (Accessed 9 January 2015).

3. Meera Srinivasan, “Colombo Opposition takes Anti-China Stand”, The Hindu, 21 December 2014, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/colombo-opposition-takes-antichina-stand/article6711406.ece (Accessed 9 January 2015).

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/DidtheChineseModelofGrowthDefeatRajapaksa_AvinashGodbole_120115.html

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Iranian President Hassan Rohani says the recent fall in global crude prices will not pressure the Islamic Republic.

President Rohani said, “Iran won’t be pressured by the slump in oil prices” as it has envisaged economic plans to compensate for the drop.

Rohani said that his administration has based the country’s budget on the lowest ever dependency on oil revenues, adding that oil sales account for only one third of Iran’s budget.

The Iranian chief executive described the recent drop in oil prices as a “conspiracy” against certain countries, saying those behind the scheme would regret the move.

Those behind the fall in prices won’t be able to continue on that path, he said.

The Iranian president said countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are losing the most since their budgets are heavily dependent on oil revenues.

Iran’s President also said the country is to build two more nuclear plants in the southern city of Bushehr towards the use of peaceful nuclear energy.

Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

“The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is different from the power plants of other countries since this power plant is the symbol of a nation’s resistance,” he noted.

“The construction of this power plant and making it operational showed the world that should a nation have a will to attain a goal, it will take steps in that direction, stand up for its rights and attain its goal.”

The Iranian chief executive said the plant is an example that shows Iran “is only after peaceful use of nuclear energy and electricity production.”

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