Despite the failed coup attempt on 13 May, popular mobilisation against outgoing President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third term has not abated, and confrontation between the government and the “Halte au troisième mandat” (Stop the Third Mandate) street movement is intensifying.

A new International Crisis Group report notes that over 90,000 Burundians have fled and a cholera outbreak has been declared in the most populous place of refuge in western Tanzania. As international pressure on the president continues to fall on deaf ears and the government reiterates its intent to hold municipal and legislative polls on 5 June, and the presidential election on 26 June, all elements of an open conflict have fallen into place. Delayed elections are not sufficient to avoid a rapid escalation of violence, a political and security climate conducive to free and peaceful elections must be restored. The East African Community (EAC) summit on 31 May in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is the perfect opportunity to reflect on, and react to, this reality.

The week following the attempted coup saw the government’s radicalisation and attempted arrests of journalists and politicians. Protesters responded to the “Halte au troisième mandat” movement’s call for a resumption of protests in Bujumbura on 18 May with fervour. Diplomatic initiatives meanwhile have not yielded any progress. The dialogue between the government and the opposition established by the UN special representative, which was suspended a few days after the assassination of opposition figure Zedi Feruzi in the Ngagara neighbourhood of Bujumbura on 23 May, remains fragile. The opposition has just announced that it will not participate in the elections.

In this climate of fear and uncertainty several scenarios are possible for Burundi’s immediate future, ranging from the highly improbable withdrawal of President Nkurunziza’s candidacy, to the significantly more dangerous path toward a more or less violent, and intractable, conflict. Nevertheless, peaceful resolution is still possible if the following measures – aimed at appeasing electoral tensions and improving security and political conditions – are taken as soon as possible:

If Burundian authorities refuse to push back the polls and the climate of repression intensifies, the following measures should be taken:

The post Burundi: Peace Sacrificed? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Bhaskar Roy*

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to Bangladesh (June 6/7) is expected to be a game changer in relations among SAARC nations despite Pakistan’s efforts to be a spoiler.

It is time the leaders of these countries realized that using Pakistan and some big extra regional countries to stall India’s development (read rise) can only be self – destructive. Prime Minister Sk. Hasina of Bangladesh has broken out of this syndrome.

Pakistan has apparently begun to feel the heat. Pakistani High Commissioner in Bangladesh, Shuja Alam met (May. 26) Dhaka University Vice Chancellor Dr. A. A. M. S. Arefin Siddique and proposed strengthening academic and research among Universities in Pakistan and Dhaka University. Shuja Alam also discussed strengthening of collaborative programmes including teacher and student exchanges.

Shuja’s decision to meet Arefin Siddique was an astute move, given the fact Siddique has enormous influence not only with Awami League led government but enjoys high regard among the people of Bangladesh. He is a staunch nationalist, pro-liberation and anti-Islamist. Getting him to soften on Pakistan will be a major success for Pakistani diplomacy in Bangladesh. While seeking improvement in bilateral relations Pakistan’s ISI continues to try and destabilize Bangladesh, including by fomenting radical terrorism. Police in Dhaka’s Gazipur recently arrested an ISI agent Khaled Mehmud who is a Pakistani citizen. Mehmud was staying illegally in the country and was trying to create an unstable situation in the garment factory in which he was working. This is clandestine economic warfare. Earlier in February, Pakistan was forced to withdraw one Mazar Khan, an Attache in the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka, who was caught for terror financing and distributing fake currency. Khaled Mehmud was in touch with Mazar Khan. This is only the tip of the iceberg.

Modi is travelling to Bangladesh with the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in his bag. The LBA, otherwise known as the Indira – Mujib pact, was signed in May 1974. The ratification of the agreement was held up in India, but successive governments in Bangladesh did not show any inclination to address this issue. Both the Bangladeshi Prime Minister and the government, and the opposition BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister, have welcomed the Indian step, a rare consensus between the two sides. This has been appreciated in India. But Khaleda Zia’s criticism of the earlier Congress led government was a Freudian slip, revealing she may have opposed it if UPA government had done it. Carrying this kind of a rancour will not be conducive for a healthy bilateral relationship.

Another agreement that has not been talked about is the India – Bangladesh sea boundary agreement. An international tribunal ruled on the issue and Bangladesh was the main beneficiary. India accepted the tribunal judgment without any protest.

These two agreements stand out as examples on how to resolve boundary and territorial issues between countries. China should consider these examples if they the really mean what they say about a peaceful and stable Asia.

Unfortunately, the Teesta river water sharing agreement between the two countries suffered a setback in 2011 when West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee pulled back at the last moment. The agreement is ready to be signed, and Mamta Banerjee has shown some inclination to go along with it. Apparently she wants some tinkering if for nothing else but to show her supporters that she had some objections earlier and they have been addressed. Till the agreement is signed and the ink is dry, nothing can be said about the mercurial West Bengal chief minister. Modi has to be at his persuasive best to keep Banerjee interested. Latest information suggests she would be travelling to Dhaka with Modi, brightening the chances for the Teesta deal.

If the Teesta agreement is signed during Modi’s visit then all major bilateral issues would be resolved in one stroke. This would now pave the way for river water management between the two countries. There are 54 rivers that flow from India to Bangladesh, and the flow of some of these rivers may have to be augmented especially those that flow from Nepal into India. This would eventually lead to flood management.

Bangladesh may like to consider the flow of the Brahmaputra river. The river starts from the Tibetan plateau and is known in China as the Tsangpo. Taking a sharp turn known as the Great Bend, it enters India as the Brahmaputra in Assam, and flows into Bangladesh as Meghna. Any tinkering by the Chinese to alter the flow of this river will eventually destroy the ecology in Assam and desertify almost half of Bangladesh.

The Chinese are building a series of dams to generate electricity and claim that the run of water dams will not in any way alter the character of the river. This is not quite true. The Lancang river from Tibet which flows to the South East Asian countries as the Mekong, is already suffering ecologically by the run of river dams built on the Lancang. And if they go ahead and divert the Tsang Po to internal China, the disaster will be unimaginable.

The Indian government is in the process of giving an US $ 2 billion soft loan to Bangladesh, in addition to the US $ one billion soft loan already given. This is expected to be announced by Modi in Dhaka.

The US $ 2 billion is meant for building infrastructure like roads, bridges, power projects and ports. This will go a long way in improving connectivity in Bangladesh and Indian transport through Bangladesh. North East Indian states can access the Chittagong port which will help both sides.

The infrastructure construction will help in laying down road connectivity between Nepal and Bhutan to Bangladesh through India. A Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) is to be signed among all four countries on June 15.

The economic benefits that accrue from this connectivity will be tremendous. This will be the first SAARC sub-regional cooperation and will not be impacted by blocking policies of SAARC members like Pakistan. This will be a peoples’ project in which the interests of the people of all four countries are invested.

Members of this sub-regional body must ensure that a fifth country does not enter this body any time soon. An exception, however, can be considered in the case of Sri Lanka after its internal political situation stabilizes. This sub-regional body can be included in India’s Act East policy through Myanmar and Bangladesh to Vietnam. It must also be emphasized that this body remains independent of China’s maritime Silk Road project.

It is time that India starts military diplomacy in earnest with selected neighbours. Although Bangladesh is an important and friendly neighbour, military exchanges fall far short of its potential and necessity. A firm structure needs to be created.

There is a need for the Services Chiefs and Defence ministries including defence ministers to meet regularly. There are a lot of areas common to both. They include joint counter – terrorism exercises between the two armies, anti-piracy tasks, search and rescue missions among others. India must consider how it could help Bangladesh in military hardware and communication area. Naval patrol boats built in Indian facilities could be very useful to Bangladesh as Sk. Hasina is striving to modernise the Bangladesh navy. If India waits too long the gaps will be filled in by other countries. Military diplomacy should be on Modi’s agenda.

Terrorism is one subject that should be on the table, although there is good cooperation between the agencies on the subject. The footprints of the ISIS has been discovered in both the countries. The ISIS ideology is attracting educated young people. ISIS members appear to have had some experience with other Islamic terrorist organizations. The Hizb-ul-Tehrir (HUT) which targets educated and influential people and also dreams of an Islamic caliphate is growing quickly.

Both Modi and Sk. Hasina have proved to be strong leaders. Sk. Hasina in particular has faced severe internal challenges and western pressures and come out victorious. Her opponents, the BNP led 18- party alliance, is in a shambles. Western machinations for regime change appears to have abated to a significant extent. Sk. Hasina has given development to her people and the west is inclined to help. The World Bank has drawn a special programme for Bangladesh. But Sk. Hasina should apply herself to two tasks. One is the law and order problem. Disappearance of people cannot be expected from a country like Bangladesh.

Next, is to tackle the Islamists firmly with vigour. To think that it is a sensitive issue and be handled softly will only encourage terrorists. The killers of the secular bloggers must be brought to justice and membership of these terrorist organizations should be deemed as acts against the state.

There is euphoria and excitement in Bangladesh over Modi’s visit. They should not be disappointed.

*The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst. He can be reached at e-mail grouchohart@yahoo.com

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Compared to other developed countries, the US ranks high on income inequality and low on social mobility. This could be particularly concerning if such a trend is self-perpetuating. In this column, the authors argue that there is a causal relationship between income inequality and high school dropout rates among disadvantaged youth. In particular, moving from a low-inequality to a high-inequality state increases the likelihood that a male student from a low socioeconomic status drops out of high school by 4.1 percentage points. The lack of opportunity for disadvantaged students, therefore, may be self-perpetuating.

By Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine*

High inequality and low social mobility: the Great Gatsby curve

Compared to other developed countries, the US ranks high in income inequality and low in social mobility. International comparisons suggest that these measures are related; highly unequal countries tend to have low social mobility, as measured by intergenerational income persistence (Corak 2006). Alan Krueger, a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, popularised this relationship as the ‘the Great Gatsby curve’. Combining our own data with data from Chetty et al. (2014), we construct a similar Great Gatsby curve for states in the US, shown in Figure 1, which resembles the international pattern (Kearney and Levine 2014a).

Figure 1. The Great Gatsby curve in the US

Figure 1. The Great Gatsby curve in the US. Notes: Income persistence is the relative mobility measure obtained from Chetty, et al. (2014). The 50/10 ratios are calculated by the authors.

If equality of opportunity were to prevail in a society, one would expect to see high social mobility, all else equal. There is reason for concern, then, that the US ranks poorly on the Great Gatsby curve, casting some doubt on the proposition that a child’s chances of success are independent of her family background.

High income inequality and school dropout rates in the US

There is particular cause for concern, however, if the US’ position on the Great Gatsby curve is somehow self-perpetuating. That is, if high inequality and low mobility affect the behaviour of disadvantaged youth in a way that further diminishes their chances of success, inequality may begin to look something like a vicious circle. This is the question we investigate in this column. In particular, we examine whether high income inequality (as measured as the gap between the bottom and middle of the income distribution) and low social mobility have a causal impact on high school dropout rates among disadvantaged youth—a decision that has important consequences for their ability to climb the economic ladder. Figure 2 shows that income inequality and dropout rates across states are correlated. The purpose of this column is to assess whether this correlation reflects a causal relationship between the two.

Figure 2. Relationship between inequality and rate of high-school non-completion

Figure 2. Relationship between inequality and rate of high-school non-completion

To measure income inequality, we focus on the ratio of the 50th percentile of the income distribution to the 10th percentile. We focus on this measure because the distance between the low-end and the middle of the income distribution seems more relevant to disadvantaged youth than is the distance to the top of the distribution. Our data confirm that dropout rates are more responsive to the 50/10 ratio than other measures of the income distribution. To measure social mobility, we use the intergenerational income persistence measure provided by Chetty et al. (2014), which captures the change in the child’s percentile rank for a one percentile increase in the parents’ rank. As a proxy for adolescents’ socioeconomic status (SES), we use the educational attainment of an individual’s mother. Although this is not a perfect measure, it is strongly correlated with a child’s socioeconomic status, and is available across the datasets we use.

Income inequality in the US has grown in recent decades, but this is largely attributable to growth in incomes at the top of the distribution. By contrast, lower-tail inequality, as measured by the 50/10 ratio, has remained relatively stable. The same is true of social mobility. However, there is substantial, persistent variation in lower-tail inequality and social mobility across states and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We exploit this persistent geographic variation to explore the effects of inequality and mobility on the future economic prospects of disadvantaged youth, captured in this analysis by their decision to drop out of high school.

Although we are interested in the causal impact of both income inequality and social mobility on dropout rates, inequality and mobility are highly correlated and so it is difficult to tease apart the independent effect of each. For ease of exposition, we refer to income inequality as the explanatory variable of main interest, rather than repeatedly noting that we are interested in both inequality and mobility. Similarly, for ease of exposition, we will refer to variation in inequality across states, although we also consider variation across metropolitan statistical areas.

In our empirical analysis, we assess whether youth with low socioeconomic status in persistently high inequality locations are relatively more likely to drop out high school.  In high inequality states, higher dropout rates across the socioeconomic spectrum would signal that it is something else about the state that is the cause. If inequality has a causal impact, however, we would expect to see those at the bottom of the economic ladder affected the most, which is precisely what we find.

• We find that a one point increase in the 50/10 ratio—about equivalent to moving from a low-inequality state to a high-inequality state—increases the likelihood that a low-socioeconomic status male student drops out of high school by 4.1 percentage points.
• By contrast, we find a small and statistically insignificant impact for low-socioeconomic status female students.

The finding that income inequality leads to lower rates of educational investment among lower income youth contradicts the predictions of a standard human-capital model, which predicts that when the returns to education are greater, an individual should seek to obtain more education. To consider this directly, we estimate an augmented model that includes a measure of the wage differential between high-school graduates and dropouts. Controlling for this wage premium does not alter the estimated positive effect of the 50/10 ratio and high school dropout rates. But at the same time, the data do indicate a negative relationship between the wage premium and high school dropout rates. In other words, the data clearly indicate offsetting effects.

Inequality in the form of wage returns does have the presumed positive effect, while overall household level income inequality has a negative effect on educational outcomes for low-income youth.

Is it only an effect of income inequality?

A limitation in our methodology is that we may be confusing the effect of inequality with other persistent differences across states that are correlated with inequality and have a disproportionate effect on the educational outcomes of low-income youth. Plausible examples include other features of the income distribution, the industrial composition of the labour market, or the demographic characteristics of a state (like the minority composition or fraction of single parent households). We run horse-race models directly comparing the effects of these conditions on the dropout rate of low-income youth to that of lower-tail income inequality. In every case, the data clearly show that the gap between the bottom and the middle of the income distribution leads to lower rates of high school completion among low-socioeconomic status youth, and the magnitude of that estimated effect is remarkably consistent across specifications.

We then run a series of analyses aimed at identifying mediating factors driving the link between income inequality and high school dropout rates. We consider whether the observed link is being driven by rates of residential segregation by race or income, or by public school financing. The data do not offer support for these mechanisms.

We also empirically explore one final alternative explanation. It is possible that the relationship we observe is attributable to the distribution of innate ability in the population under consideration. Perhaps low-income youth in more unequal places are simply of lower ability, for whatever reason. If this were the case, our results would reflect something about the underlying ability of the population, rather than income inequality as such. To investigate this possibility, we incorporate into the model the test scores of low-income students as a proxy for ability. Including AFQT scores reduces our estimate of the impact of inequality on high school dropout rates somewhat but we still find a strong relationship. All of these approaches support the notion that inequality is causally related to the likelihood of dropping out of high school among low-socioeconomic youth.

The self-perpetuating impact of the lack of opportunity

So why does greater income inequality increase the dropout rate among low-income high school students? There is a class of theories that we are not able to directly test empirically that remains a viable set of candidate explanations – namely, theories focused on individuals’ perceptions of their own identity (Akerlof and Kranton 2000, Watson and McLanahan 2011), their relative societal position (Luttmer 2005), or their perceived chances of their own success (Kearney and Levine 2014b). We hypothesise that the observed relationship can be explained by the ‘economic despair’ model described in Kearney and Levine (2014b). That model focused on the decisions of young, unmarried women to have children, but the explanatory value of the model readily extends to dropout behaviour. The idea is that an increase in lower-tail inequality widens the gap between low-socioeconomic status youth and the middle-class, which in turn makes economic success look increasingly out of reach from the perspective of low-income youth. The perceived likelihood of climbing the economic ladder may fall to a level that no longer warrants continued investment in education, leading the student to drop out.

If, as our results suggest, high inequality and low mobility affect the behaviour of low-income students in a way that further diminishes their chances of success, a lack of opportunity for disadvantaged students may be self-perpetuating. This conclusion highlights the importance of policies that give low-income youth reasons to believe they have opportunities to climb the economic ladder, along with policies that make those opportunities real.

*About the authors:
Melissa S. Kearney
Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Maryland

Phillip B. Levine
A. Barton Hepburn and Katherine Coman Professor of Economics, Wellesley College

References:
Akerlof, G A and R E Kranton (2000), “Economics and Identity”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(3): 715-753.

Boustan, L, F Ferreira, H Winkler, and E Zolt (2013), “The Effect of Rising Income Inequality on Taxation and Public Expenditures: Evidence from U.S. Municipalities and School Districts, 1970-2000”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(4): 1291-1302.

Cascio, E U and E G Lewis (2006), “Schooling and the Armed Forces Qualifying Test: Evidence from School-Entry Laws”, Journal of Human Resources, 41(2): 294-318.

Chetty, R, N Hendren, P Kline, and E Saez (2014), “Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4): 1553-1623.

Corak, M (2006), “Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross-Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility”, Research on Economic Inequality, 13(1): 143- 188.

Corcoran, S and W N Evans (2010), “Income Inequality, the Median Voter, and the Support for Public Education”, NBER Working Paper 16097.

Gordon, N (2013), “High School Graduation in the Context of Changing Elementary and Secondary Education Policy and Income Inequality: The Last Half Century,” NBER Working Paper 19049.

Kearney, M S and P B Levine (2014a), “Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School”, NBER Working Paper 20195.

Kearney, M S and P B Levine (2014b), “Income Inequality and Early Nonmarital Childbearing,” Journal of Human Resources, 49(1): pp. 1-31.

Luttmer, E F P (2005), “Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(3): 963-1002.

Watson, T (2009), “Inequality and the Measurement of Residential Segregation by Income in American Neighborhoods”, Review of Income and Wealth, 55(3): 820-844.

Watson, T and S McLanahan (2011), “Marriage Meets the Joneses: Relative Income, Identity, and Marital Status”, Journal of Human Resources, 46(3): 482-517.

The post High School Dropout Rates Increase With Income Inequality – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In this week’s address, US President Barack Obama addressed critical pieces of national security business that remained unfinished when the Senate left town. This Sunday at midnight, key tools used to protect against terrorist threats are set to expire. The USA Freedom Act strikes a balance between security and privacy, reauthorizing important measures that give our national security professionals the authorities they use to keep us safe, while also implementing reforms that enhance the privacy and civil liberties of our citizens. But currently, a small group of senators is standing in its way. The President asked Americans to speak with one voice to the Senate to put politics aside, put the safety of the American people first, and pass the USA Freedom Act now.

Remarks of President Barack Obama
Weekly Address
The White House
May 30, 2015

Hi, everybody. As President and Commander in Chief, my greatest responsibility is the safety of the American people. And in our fight against terrorists, we need to use every effective tool at our disposal — both to defend our security and to protect the freedoms and civil liberties enshrined in our Constitution.

But tomorrow — Sunday, at midnight — some important tools we use against terrorists will expire. That’s because Congress has not renewed them, and because legislation that would — the USA Freedom Act — is stuck in the Senate. I want to be very clear about what this means.

Today, when investigating terrorist networks, our national security professionals can seek a court order to obtain certain business records. Our law enforcement professionals can seek a roving wiretap to keep up with terrorists when they switch cell phones. We can seek a wiretap on so-called lone wolves — suspected terrorists who may not be directly tied to a terrorist group. These tools are not controversial. Since 9/11, they have been renewed numerous times. FBI Director James Comey says they are “essential” and that losing them would “severely” impact terrorism investigations. But if Congress doesn’t act by tomorrow at midnight, these tools go away as well.

The USA Freedom Act also accomplishes something I called for a year and a half ago: it ends the bulk metadata program — the bulk collection of phone records — as it currently exists and puts in place new reforms. The government will no longer hold these records; telephone providers will. The Act also includes other changes to our surveillance laws — including more transparency — to help build confidence among the American people that your privacy and civil liberties are being protected. But if Congress doesn’t act by midnight tomorrow, these reforms will be in jeopardy, too.

It doesn’t have to be this way. The USA Freedom Act reflects ideas from privacy advocates, our private sector partners and our national security experts. It already passed the House of Representatives with overwhelming bipartisan support — Republicans and Democrats. A majority of the Senate — Republicans and Democrats — have voted to move it forward.

So what’s the problem? A small group of senators is standing in the way. And, unfortunately, some folks are trying to use this debate to score political points. But this shouldn’t and can’t be about politics. This is a matter of national security. Terrorists like al Qaeda and ISIL aren’t suddenly going to stop plotting against us at midnight tomorrow. And we shouldn’t surrender the tools that help keep us safe. It would be irresponsible. It would be reckless. And we shouldn’t allow it to happen.

So today, I’m calling on Americans to join me in speaking with one voice to the Senate. Put the politics aside. Put our national security first. Pass the USA Freedom Act — now. And let’s protect the security and civil liberties of every American. Thanks very much.

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Islamic State has kidnapped around 500 children in Iraq’s Anbar and Diyala provinces, local officials said Saturday.

“Daesh has kidnapped at least 400 children in the western province of Anbar, and taken them to their bases in Iraq, and Syria,” a member of Anbar’s Provincial Council, Farhan Mohamme told Anadolu Agency.

Mohammed said the abductions from the towns of Ar Rutba, Al-Qaim, Anah and Rawa continued for over a week, and warned that the militant group could recruit all children in regions under their control to use them in terror attacks.

Meanwhile, Diyala’s police chief, Lieutenant General Kasim Al-Saidi said about 100 children were recruited in the eastern Iraqi province to be used in suicide attacks.

“Daesh has recruited about 100 children under the age of 16. They are going to brainwash these kids into being suicide bombers,” he said.

Saidi added that the Daesh would give military training to these “recruits,” some of whom could be taken to other regions controlled by the group, or even Syria.

Rehab al-Abouda, head of the Iraqi Parliament’s Committee for Women, Family and Childhood said in late April that Daesh used hundreds of kidnapped boys as fighters in its clashes with the Iraqi security forces.

Original article

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After winning his fifth term at the helm of FIFA, Sepp Blatter set a defiant tone in his first press conference, blasting the US probe into corruption at football’s world governing body and suggesting there was a US-backed campaign to oust him.

Speaking on Saturday in Zurich, Blatter said he was happy to be re-elected despite all the troubles he and FIFA have suffered. He said he was pleased that 133 national football associations trusted him to resolve the problems the organization has been facing and promised to be president of all the FIFA members, including the 73 who voted for the US-backed candidate, Jordanian Prince Ali bin al-Hussein.

Asked if he is worried he would be arrested amid the massive investigation, he replied: “Arrested for what?” stressing he had no concerns.

In his first media conference since re-election, Blatter condemned the US corruption probe into the organization. Blatter was skeptical about the US’ role, motive and timing ahead of the re-election vote on Friday.

The events with the FIFA officials culminated in a 6am raid when police stormed the hotel where they were staying on Wednesday. Blatter pointed out the high-profile arrests were made with “three American journalists by a strange coincidence present on location.”

In an interview on Saturday with Swiss television RTS, Blatter said the arrest of seven FIFA officials and calls for his resignation from UEFA chief Michel Platini just two days before the election were “no coincidence.”

“There are signs that do not lie: Americans were candidates for the World Cup 2022 and they lost. If the Americans have to deal with money or criminal offences which involve northern or South American citizens, they stop them there, but not in Zurich while there’s a congress,” said the freshly re-elected president.

There is no secret that Western media, political and sports figures, have been campaigning against Sepp Blatter and it appears that although he was re-elected on Friday, this campaign against him isn’t over yet.

“This is not over by any means over,” said Greg Dyke, the Chairman of the English Football Association. “I’d just quote the Attorney General of the US: This is the beginning of an investigation, not the end. The idea that Blatter, who has been in the job for 16 years, can actually reform FIFA – it’s just not acceptable. So, I’d be very surprised if Mr Blatter is still in the job in two years’ time.”

A similar message came from the head of European football, UEFA President Michel Platini, who called for his resignation, saying, “people don’t need a president like Blatter.”

Asked whether he would forgive Platini, Blatter told RTS: “I forgive everyone, but I do not forget.”

Blatter, however, did call on FIFA and UEFA to work together, particularly to protect the World Cup. “They need FIFA and FIFA needs UEFA,” he said.

The FIFA president also mentioned the extraordinary pressure on him before Friday’s vote, noting the US is the principle sponsor of Jordan, while a Jordanian prince was Blatter’s solo opponent at the presidential vote.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, host of the 2018 World Cup, congratulated Sepp Blatter after winning a fifth term as head of FIFA. Putin “expressed confidence that experience, professionalism and high authority will help Blatter further promote the expansion of the geography and popularity of football in the whole world.”

Ever since the scandalous arrests of the FIFA executives on Wednesday, Sepp Blatter has been under unprecedented pressure from top football executives and European politicians, including UK PM David Cameron, who are demanding he gives in without a struggle and gives up his post.

During the vote, Blatter’s rival for the presidency was supported by delegates from Europe and the Americas. But the long-running FIFA chief enjoyed the firm backing of Africa, Asia, Russia and Oceania.

Blatter is popular outside the West because he brought football to the masses worldwide, Talal Badr Al Saud, President at Union Of Arab National Olympic Committees, told journalists.

“The game is for the poor, not for the elite. And Mr Blatter brought it to them in Africa, in Asia, and that’s why most of Africa and Asia voted for him,” Al Saud said.

“We don’t like the governments to interfere with sports or federations. We don’t want these governments to control the results or impose on us where the game goes,” Al Saud said.

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By Kalinga Seneviratne*

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived on May 14 in the historic city of Xian, at the start of his three-day visit to China, he was almost immediately taken by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Wild Goose Pagoda that symbolise the two countries’ umbilical cultural ties, thus setting the tone for the important visit. Xian is where the ancient Silk Route began.

This Buddhist temple which is today a major tourist attraction in China, and where the Chinese Buddhist scholar monk Xuanzang spent many years of his later life translating some 35 volumes of Buddhist scriptures into Chinese that he collected during 16 years he spent at Nalanda University in India in the 7th century. It is these volumes that helped to spread Buddhism across much of East Asia and later helped Indian scholars to find out about Nalanda University after Muslim Turkic invaders burned Nalanda into ashes in the 12th century.

Thus these two-way civilizational exchanges are significant milestones as Asia’s two leading civilizations led by two visionary leaders embark on building a new economic and cultural relationship that could transform the world.

China’s Xinhua news agency that usually reflects its government’s thinking said in a commentary on the eve of Modi’s arrival in China that this is the chance for the two Asian neighbours to consolidate trust. “The world’s two leading developing countries should become global partners for strategic coordination and jointly strive for a just and equitable international order,” it said.

Nirupama Rao, a former Indian ambassador to both China and the United States and its Foreign Secretary from 2009-2011 seem to agree with that viewpoint. Writing in The Hindu she noted that the India-China relationship in recent years has been marked by low levels of mutual trust and lack of knowledge of each other among people of both countries. “The two countries that gave the world Panchsheel (five precepts), cannot live in mutual exclusion,” argues Rao. “Indians and Chinese cannot be brothers, but they can be partners.”

Jabin T. Jacob, Assistant Director and Fellow of the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi believes because of Modi’s considerable experience in dealing with China (as chief minister of Gujarat he made four trips to China) and despite different worldviews, the way he has gone about understanding China provides an unique opportunity for the two Asian powers to forge a global partnership.

“Modi appears to have a rather audacious politico-cultural agenda in his foreign policy,” noted Jacob. “(He) will continue India’s challenge to Chinese attempts to hijack the global Buddhist agenda.”

“The Indian Prime Minister has frequently and confidently highlighted India-China Buddhist links. Given China’s current political realities, references to Buddhism in the India-China context are likely to be the favoured method for Mr Modi to highlight its Indian origins,” he argues.

India has been slow to respond to China’s Silk Route initiatives, especially the ‘one belt, one road’ concept promoted by Xi Jingping. If China’s economic focus could be supplemented by India’s cultural dimensions, this project could redefine Asia’s identity and its economic potential in the 21st century. Both sides seem to be warming to the idea.

During President Xi Jingping’s visit to India in September 2014 the two governments signed agreements to set up joint industrial parks, and now this is going to be extended to setting up cultural hubs in each other’s countries. To begin with India and China are to set up two sister cultural parks in Beijing and Bengaluru (Bangalore). Buddhist studies, Yoga and Ayurveda are going to be in the curriculum at the park at Beijing Normal University.

Buddhist renaissance

A Buddhist renaissance is taking place in China, argues Dana Schuppert who has lived there for 23 years. Founder of the 21st Century China-India Centre for Culture and Communication, she is the driving force behind the cultural parks initiative, fully backed by the Chinese government.

“The cultural renaissance that we are experiencing under President Xi is a great Buddhist renaissance. Buddhism is number one together with Confucianism and Taoism. These are three schools of thought that shape the Chinese mind-set. The distance this country has travelled from the trauma of the Cultural Revolution is unbelievable,” Schuppert noted in an interview with The Hindu.

She said that Modi’s visit is perfectly timed as the Chinese leadership has taken a “strategic decision” to transform its relationship with India, and External Affairs Ministry is adopting Buddhism as part of its foreign policy toolkit. She has no doubt that the Chinese government will be able to achieve a “seamless synthesis” of Marxism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Taoism.

During an address at the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing on May 15, Modi announced the granting of e-visas to Chinese tourists, adding that the Chinese and Indians needed to know more about each other.

While cultural links would help to bridge the mistrust between the two nations, especially at people-to-people level, economic links are what would make the relationship stronger. The Modi visit is expected to kick-start India’s lukewarm response to the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh-India economic corridor initiative of China, especially with India seeking Chinese help to modernise India’s rail network.

Thus, during the Modi visit the two sides signed a record 24 agreements that will cover development of railways, mining, outer space, earthquakes sciences and tourism. India and China also vowed to work out a political solution to their border issues at the earliest, especially with regards to India’s Arunachal Pradesh state border with China.

“A partnership for development between India and China is a win-win partnership and neither side can lose in such a transaction,” argues Rao. “India, which has distances to cover in its development marathon, aims well to draw in investments and infrastructure-creating expertise from China. This is pragmatic and we must drop apprehensions of Chinese companies as Bond villains … unleashing viruses on people.”

India is a founding member of the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS Bank – both to be headquartered in Shanghai. On the eve of Modi’s visit to China, India nominated renowned banking expert K.V Kamath as its first President. Later in the year, India is expected to join another Chinese regional development initiative, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation that would also include Russia and other Eurasian nations.

All these initiatives are expected to have a profound impact on the global development and economic agenda and India-China cooperation would be crucial to achieving its aims to cement Asia’s emergence at the centre of a new global order.

“We have complemented each other in the past,” said Modi in an address in Shanghai to 22 Chinese CEOs where he talked about over 2000 years of knowledge and cultural flows between the two great civilizations. “As two major economies in Asia, the harmonious partnership between India and China is essential for economic development and political stability of the continent,” he added.

*Dr Kalinga Seneviratne is IDN Special Correspondent for Asia-Pacific. He teaches international communications in Singapore.

The post Mapping India-China Cultural Links Crucial For Asia’s Emergence – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The landlocked country of Afghanistan located in the Southwest Asia on the Iranian Plateau shares its borders with Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China. The country possesses identical importance and diverse interests for the whole region. Countries like Pakistan and India are not merely dominant stakeholders, but China also has huge investments, meaning that a secure and politically stable Afghanistan means a prosperous region.

For any good or bad reason, Afghanistan cannot geographically separate itself from the neighbors. The engagement of regional countries is awfully essential for the democracy, economic viability and the rule of law in the country and thus, the stable Afghanistan will itself contribute to the progress of the region.

Iran, China and Russia are some of the countries who are considered as rays of hope for the development and the rehabilitation process in Afghanistan. In the post NATO withdrawal scenario, the Russian side also does not want to set again its footprints in Afghanistan. Moreover, China conducts a highly cautious foreign policy of cooperation and noninterference in internal affairs of other countries and for China, the exploitation of business opportunities and further access to the commercial markets of the region are seen as valuable objectives. Significantly among all the other regional countries, Pakistan shares a greater camaraderie apart from the adjacent boundaries which include ethnic, cultural, linguistic and religious commonalities.

The year 2014 was a major shift in the political and military transition of the Afghanistan with a unified government under President Ashraf Ghani and a formal closure of combat mission- ending the Operation Enduring Freedom led by the US and partners at the end of 2014. There are still a total of 13,000 coalition forces in Afghanistan for training, advising and assisting the Afghan National Forces in the chaotic country. The bulk of foreign troops are further likely to be withdrawn from the year 2016 but the concerns about the security are still prevalent despite of the 13 years of war.

The more pressing issue persists about the intensified and growing influence of the Taliban and recapturing those areas under its former control. Apart from the Taliban insurgency, many other militant groups like Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbadin Hikmatyar and Haqqani Network under the Jalauddin Haqqani actively operate inside the Afghanistan.

The prospects for Afghanistan and the regional states are also intimately interconnected and the productive corporation involving Afghanistan and its neighbors is indispensable for the regional stability. Obviously, Afghanistan alone, at least in present circumstances does not have the capability to sustain and improve its economic and other social conditions and to create conducive environment for the security and rule of the law for the better living of its citizens.

Particularly, it is incontestable that regional and external support for Afghanistan also roams around the symbiotic political stability within the Afghanistan. With the advent of the new government, the long-hoped development and progress objectives have not been achieved so far. The recent Afghan government under president Ghani and the Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah has not itself flourished at the overwhelming levels of optimism of the Afghan people about creating better economic and security situations in the country.

The Unity Government is facing lots of differences of opinion between its leadership on a wide ranges of political, economic and security matters of the country, but at least, the present government is seen much better than the previous government under President Hamid Karzai, which was hardly trusted by the common people due to the rampant corruption and injustice in every affair of the country. Though still many of such issues exist, given the fact the high rates of unemployment and the fragile economic conditions as a result of three decades long warfare and now the post withdrawal era with the concerns related to the capability of Afghan forces for creating a secure environment in the coming future are some of the factors which possess very less attraction for the foreign investment and entrepreneurship.

All of these shortcomings cannot be overcome without further economic and military assistance. Along with the position of other regional powers, the future of Afghanistan mainly depends on U.S role and its firm commitment as envisaged, for creating a secure, stable and unified Afghanistan for future generations.

* Nasurullah Brohi works as a Research Fellow at the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad and can be reached at nasurullahsvi@outlook.com

The post Regional Engagements In Afghanistan – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Dropping the bid to suspend Israel from FIFA was an “outrageous deviation from our values, principles and efforts to expose the Israeli occupation’s crimes and to oust Israel from international organizations,” the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said Saturday.

The leftist PLO faction laid responsibility for the last-minute withdrawal on Palestinian Authority decision makers, calling upon the Executive Committee of the PLO to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the issue and “settle account with” those behind the decision.

Palestinian Football Association President Jibril Rajoub dropped the bid Friday minutes before it was scheduled to be brought to the table.

The football governing body voted instead on an amendment proposing the formation of a committee to monitor the movement of Palestinian football players, Israeli racism, as well as the status of Israeli league teams based in illegal Jewish-only settlements in the West Bank.

The new amendment passed with 90 percent of member nations voting in favor following a whirlwind of ambiguous last minute changes.

PFLP maintained that Palestinian Football Association President Jibril Rajoub should be questioned over his position and his exact actions during the FIFA congress meeting.

Such behavior is a “slap to Palestinian sport,” the group said, pointing to the decision as a waste of the blood lost by all those who have sacrificed for Palestinian movement and independence from Israeli occupation.

The group also described dropping the bid at the last moment as “an act of betrayal” towards international solidarity and the international Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, which struggled until the last moment to support the bid.

“This behavior poses multiple question marks about the Palestinian efforts to join international organizations,” the PFLP wrote in a statement.

Friday’s near-bid to suspend Israel was the latest in a string of efforts to use boycotts, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) to build international pressure on the Israeli government to end the ongoing military occupation.

Protesters supporting Israel’s suspension from FIFA temporarily halted Blatter’s opening address to the congress Friday, waving red cards at FIFA representatives and chanting “Israel out!” before they were escorted out of the hall by security guards.

In light of apparent international support for the original bid, the PFLP urged Palestinian leadership to consult “leading Palestinian organizations” instead of single handedly making major decisions related to the Palestinian national cause.

While the new amendment designates a “multi-lateral monitor group to work directly under the rules of the FIFA Ethics, Legal, and Discrimination committees, and will be composed of International Observers,” it is not yet clear in what capacity the group will act to monitor Israeli violations against Palestinian players.

Re-elected FIFA President Sepp Blatter appointed former South African cabinet minister and African National Congress (ANC) leader Tokyo Sexwale to head the committee.

Both an anti-apartheid activist and former political prisoner, Sexwale’s nomination to head the monitoring committee was a reminder of the potential role sports played in ending the era of apartheid South Africa.

South Africa was suspended from FIFA from 1976 until 1992 when the apartheid regime fell.

Following the amendment win in congress, Rajoub said FIFA must now help tackle the issues facing Palestinian players in the occupied West Bank before waving a red card at delegates to emphasize his point.

“I think it’s time to raise the red card against racism and humiliation in Palestine and everywhere. It is time,” he added.

The post PFLP Slams Decision To Drop Bid To Suspend Israel From FIFA appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Long-term exposure to news may negatively influence racial bias towards social groups, according to a recent University of Houston (UH) study.

Temple Northup, assistant professor at UH’s Jack J. Valenti School of Communication, studied the influence of news coverage on an individuals’ unconscious attitudes towards social groups. His study “Effects of Long-Term Exposure to News Stereotypes on Implicit and Explicit Attitudes” recently was published in the International Journal of Communication.

According to Northup, this research is particularly unique because it examines the effects of news coverage in two cultural contexts – in the United States and in Austria.

Three empirical studies were tested in the U.S. and Austria. Florian Arendt at the University of Munich in Germany and co-author of the study conducted the research in Austria, while Northup focused on subjects in the U.S.

“The two countries were selected due to access of available data for a comparable news stereotype that exists in both countries,” said Northup. “In the U.S., a large body of research indicates crime is overrepresented on local television news relative to the actual amount of crime that actually occurs in a community. Previous content analyses conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan and the University of California, Santa Barbara have shown that that African-Americans are overrepresented as criminals on local television news when compared to their actual crime rates. In Austria, research has suggested foreigners are overrepresented as criminals in tabloid-style daily newspapers.”

A total of 316 individuals participated in the first study in the U.S. Participants completed the Implicit Association Test (IAT), a tool used in psychology to measure hidden bias people may have but are unwilling or unable to report. After completing the IAT, participants answered a question about their explicit (conscious) attitudes towards African-Americans, as well as how many hours of local television news they watch per day.

“Based on the findings from the study in the U.S., long-term exposure to local television news, wherein African-Americans are depicted frequently and stereotypically as criminals, predicted increased negative implicit attitudes toward African-Americans,” said Northup. “Viewers who watched more local television news demonstrated more unconscious negative attitudes toward African-Americans.”

The study conducted in Austria was intended to be a replication of the U.S. study. A total of 489 individuals participated in the study. The same data procedure was used in the Austrian study as was used in the U.S. study. Participants reported how many days per week they read the specific newspaper under investigation. The study found that exposure to the tabloid-style daily newspaper did not increase the negativity of implicit attitudes.

“Unlike with television news, though, people have much more control over a printed newspaper because they are able to selectively expose themselves only to stories of interest,” Northup said. “In other words, when watching television news, one has little control over what stories are viewed.”

A third study also was conducted in Austria as a post hoc explanation of the second study’s findings that were inconsistent with the U.S. research. The third study investigated how much newspaper content participants are exposed to and the kinds of articles (i.e. crime articles) they read. A total of 470 individuals participated in this study. In addition to completing the IAT, participants reported how many days a week they read the specific newspaper under investigation and how often they read crime articles.

The findings from the third study found reading content specifically about crime had a significant effect on implicit attitudes toward foreigners when individuals indicated that they often read crime articles.

“The results of the studies suggest that in both these countries, regular exposure to stereotypical news coverage creates negative implicit attitudes,” said Northup. “The findings from the study in the U.S. suggest individuals who consumed more local television news than others in the study may have increased negative racial bias towards African-Americans. In Austria, individuals who read more crime-related articles in a tabloid-style weekly newspaper tended to have an increased negative racial bias toward ‘foreigners.'”

Northup hopes the results of this study will contribute to a better understanding and awareness of how watching television news coverage may lead to a negative racial bias, which in turn can lead to other negative outcomes, such as discriminatory behaviors.

“Given that long-term exposure to media stereotypes seems to influence evaluations of African-Americans and foreigners, more research investigating this implicit effect is needed,” said Northup.

“Studying this phenomenon and its underlying mechanism is necessary. Only then will researchers be able to test different strategies to deal with these negative media effects, thereby enabling society to adequately resist the possible detrimental consequences of news media consumption.

“By further studying this phenomenon, mass media research can contribute to the maintenance and improvement of a humane and open society.”

The post Exploring How News Coverage May Influence Racial Bias appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Reduced ability to sustain attention, impaired cognitive processes or precipitation of psychosis are some of the most worrying side-effects of regular cannabis use. As more and more countries start contemplating cannabis’ decriminalisation, and with an average 20 % of 15 to 34 year old Europeans using the drug according to European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, prevention measures are needed. This is particularly true for teenagers, who are particularly at risk as their brain is still developing.

To prevent and reduce the use of cannabis among such at-risk populations, researchers at the University of Montreal and CHU Sainte-Justine Children’s Hospital involved 1,038 British ninth grade students and their teachers in an experiment aiming to delay the onset of cannabis use and reduce its frequency.

“The students voluntarily participated in two 90-minute cognitive behavioural sessions that were adapted to their specific personality type. These sessions involved learning from real-life scenarios described by other at risk youth, and were designed to show how people manage risk. Cannabis was not directly mentioned but was discussed if the students brought it up,” said Ioan T. Mahu, first author of the study which was partly funded by the EU under the ALICE RAP project.

During the two-year experiment, drug use was ascertained thanks to anonymous questionnaires that the participants filled out every six months, with an assessment protocol including a number of procedures being used to filter out students reporting incorrect information. Approximately 25 % of the teenagers took up cannabis use over the course of this two-year trial.

High-impact interventions

“There were signs that the program delayed onset and reduced frequency of cannabis use in all youth who participated in the interventions, but the results also consistently showed that the program was particularly effective in preventing cannabis use among those most at risk of using – sensation seekers,” said Dr. Patricia Conrod, who led the study.

Sensation-seekers are a category of people first identified by Marvin Zuckerman of the University of Delaware for being particularly inclined to taking risks, seeking adventure and new experiences, being disinhibited and largely intolerant to boredom. These personality traits make them particularly susceptible to the charms of cannabis.

While the researchers’ intervention was generally associated with a 33 % reduction in cannabis use six months after it took place, this rate reached 75 % for sensation seekers and also resulted in significant reductions in frequency of use thereafter.

The results of this study show how important prevention measures are, but also demonstrate how different personality traits can result in different responses to such measures.

“Future studies should look at the motivations for cannabis use amongst people with other at-risk personality types in order to develop intervention programs that are as effective as this one has been for sensation seekers,” Mahu said.

The post Targeted Education Proved To Reduce Cannabis Use Rates appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Since the rise of the most brutal militant organization, Islamic State, in June last year, the reverberations of international terrorism have not only shaken the whole Middle East landmass, but also the capitals in Europe and the United States. However, in this short brief we will remain limited to the challenges that the USA faces as a result of this development.

The US sees the challenges posed by the Islamic State on three levels. Firstly, it is feared that Islamic State can attack the US directly in a 9/11 fashion attack carried out by Al Qaeda more than a decade ago. Secondly, the US is concerned about its allies in the Middle East and its interests in the region that can be affected by instability. Thirdly, the US sees itself as the sole salvation for the people targeted by terrorism and fundamentalism, the people who are denied the basic democratic and human rights. There is no disagreement among American academics and experts over the nature and extent of threat being posed by the rise of Islamic State; however, there is a difference in suggestive policies on how to tackle the issue. I will give two different opinions, followed by my own analysis in the ensuing paragraphs.

The first opinion suggests that to fulfill the vow to destroy Islamic State, the US will have to make a lengthy military commitment to Iraq and Syria and not merely assisting in air strikes campaign. The people holding this opinion also trace the rise of Islamic State to the US withdrawal from Iraq and emphasize that had US stayed in Iraq it would not have been possible for a terrorist organization like ISIS to emerge. They further argue that, if the West is serious about defeating the Islamic State, the group cannot be allowed to hold on to the territory it now controls. Local forces are not up to the task of reclaiming land from Islamic State, and regional actors are showing little interest in intervention. Since Islamic State is not going to give up without a fight, significant Western military involvement is required. By not acting, the US will be relying on the group to self-destruct. And that is too risky.

The second opinion strongly argues that there is a huge difference between the operational capabilities of Al Qaeda and Islamic State, and that the US should not employ the same strategies against Islamic State that it does against Al Qaeda. People holding this opinion argue that the sobering fact is that the United States has no good military options in its fight against Islamic State. Neither counterterrorism, nor counterinsurgency, nor conventional warfare is likely to afford Washington a clear-cut victory against the group. For the time being, at least, the policy that best matches ends and means and that has the best chance of securing U.S. interests is one of offensive containment: combining a limited military campaign with a major diplomatic and economic effort to weaken Islamic State and align the interests of the many countries that are threatened by the group’s advance.

Islamic State is not merely an American problem. The wars in Iraq and Syria involve not only regional players, but also major global actors, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf States. Washington must stop behaving as if it can fix the region’s problems with military force and instead resurrect its role as a diplomatic superpower.

My opinion regarding the challenges being posed by Islamic State to the US is that ISIS poses both direct and indirect threats to the US security. It can be a direct attack on US territory, it can be via attacks on US citizens, personnel and embassies in around the world, and last, but not least, the threats to the US allies in the region with whom its interests are attached. However, it is unlikely that use of military force alone cannot be solved the issue in the long run.

If the US is serious about bringing peace and stability in the region and world at large by defeating the Islamic State, it needs to focus on the root causes that eventually gave rise to ISIS. Defeating Islamic State requires a coherent regional response bringing all the main stakeholders together and most importantly Iran and Saudi Arabia. Another important cause of this instability is the lack of democracy in the region that gives rise to disaffection and thus leads to violence. Neither a short term aerial bombing nor a long term military involvement will solve the problem as we can see the whole Middle East is in the grip of civil wars and terrorism. The solution can come only if all the regional states including Iran are brought together to confront the common threat coming from Islamic State.

*Muhammad Maqbool Aslam Lashari is a student of M.Phil in the School of Politics and International Relations Quaid e Azam University, Islamabad Pakistan.

The post Islamic State And US Policy – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

This past week has been an emotional roller-coaster for all of us who value our shared global cultural heritage in Syria as contradictory news reaches us from Palmyra (Tadmur), the Syrian “Venice of the Sands” UNESCO World Heritage site. It is among the great cities of antiquity perhaps comparable only to Petra in Jordan, Angkor Wat in Cambodia, and the Athenian Acropolis in Greece. Just 130 miles northeast of Damascus, the area is now under the control of the reportedly sometimes hallucinogenic-drugs fueled whims of jihadists, mainly Da’ish and its allies.

Receiving reliable information about events at Palmyra is one problem. The best continuing source, which the world’s media and concerned archeologists alike go to for updates, continues to be Syria’s Dr. Maamoun Abdel-Karim given his contacts with colleagues in or near Palmyra and the surrounding Homs Governorate. Some actually worked in the Palmyra Museum or elsewhere in Directorate-General of Antiquities and Museums (DGAM), which Dr. Abdel-Karim heads. Another reliable source is Syria’s charismatic Minister of Tourism, Eng. Besher Yazji who, along with his staff works tirelessly on the subject of preserving all of Syria’s preeminent tourist destinations. Many in the local population of Palmyra, despite the arrival of Da;ish (ISIS), is watching and in some instances ‘guarding’ the irreplaceable sites with some engaging with the jihadists trying to convince them that Palmyra is about Syria and their own cultural heritage and not idolatry, insults to Islam or anything that the Koran of Mohammad the Prophet would sanction for destruction.

Simultaneously, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, al-Nusra Front—sometimes the foe or ally of Da’ish-in a kind of good cop-back cop tactic– depending on what suits both at any particular time or place- has tol.d Al Jazeera (5/28/2015) that his alliance would neither launch attacks on the West or destroy Syrian cultural heritage sites and would protect minorities.

In addition, an anti-government FM radio broadcast an audio interview purporting to be with Abu Laith al-Saoudy, the nom de guerre of the Da’ish military commander in Palmyra, who pledged not to damage the site but said the group would destroy only offending statues. Abu Laith reportedly announced: “Concerning the historic city, we will preserve it and it will not be harmed, God willing. What we will do is break the idols that the infidels used to worship. The historic buildings will not be touched and we will not bring bulldozers to destroy them like some people think.”

Indeed, on 5/27/2015, the UK Guardian newspaper reported that video released by Da’ish the day before showed that the ruins of Syria’s Palmyra were untouched as the militant group claimed. It only destroys statues which it judged to be “polytheistic.” The report quoted a local activist: “They (the archeological ruins) haven’t been damaged and members of the organization [Da’ish)] told residents that they will not damage the city’s antiquities, but will only destroy the idols.” Palmyra antiquities are mostly columns and large buildings and not statues of people, which the jihadists consider idols that must be destroyed, and they claim to have no problem with the other antiquities. In addition, literally thousands of moveable objects taken by DGAM and Syrian army personnel to safety. Most being smaller statues or busts of persons or holy figures from millennia past.

This, following events at the massive Roman theater in Palmyra which Da’ish reportedly executed 20 foreign fighters last week at the majestic Roman theater, who it was claimed had been fighting alongside forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Palmyrenes who claim to be eyewitnesses, also report that on 5/25/2015, the jihadists executed at least 400 more people, including children.

Contradictory reports regarding Palmyra arrive, sometimes almost hourly. Within the past 48 hours Da’ish militants fighting for the Islamic State have reportedly just destroyed (5/28/2015) the celebrated 1.900 year old statue of the Lion of Al-Lat, which dates back to the first century AD. This act of wanton barbarity, 72 hours after reports that the local population was given sworn-on-the-Koran promises from the jihadists that they would not obliterate the ancient city. Eyewitnesses are now reporting that the destruction of millennia-old Statues and buildings has begun in the past 24 hours.

Officials, including DGAM’s Dr. Abdel-Karim remain deeply worried and skeptical about Da’ish intentions. He told the UK IBTimes, two days ago that “We know their mentality and unfortunately we are sure that they will destroy the statues,” he said, adding that “The situation for now is quiet; there’s no armed fight or damage at the moment; the museum is closed. My purpose now is to push the local community to find the goodwill to fight IS. We have some hope but we’re very pessimistic on the whole because this group is barbaric.” He added that Palmyra looked likely to suffer the same fate as Nimrud in northern Iraq, the 3,000-year-old city which was bulldozed by insurgents in March of 2015 as part of a campaign to eliminate relics that they consider heretical. Thanks to the devotion of ‪‎DGAM staff members and the cooperation of the ‪related authorities, hundreds, if not thousands, of ‪‎Palmyrean statues and ‪‎museum objects have been transferred out from ‪‎Palmyra to safe locations outside the city

Some Muslim scholars and Sheiks, with views of Sharia similar to those expressed by Da’ish, are now speaking out publicly, seemingly with Da’ish and Palmyra in mind, about the fact that Muslims have lived very peacefully among archeological sites like Palmyra for more than 1,400 years. Some Fatwa are beginning to be issued that make the point that there’s nothing that is part of mainstream Islam about the way these sites are viewed. All of the recent iconoclastic hysteria is a very modern interpretation of Islam — transfixed on the narrow idea that any kind of intercessor between human beings and god is a form of idolatry. ISIS has also destroyed Islamic shrines, usually Shia pilgrimage sites, as well. Da’ish is a manifestation of a form of heritage terror or a form of genocide, erasing the past in order to create a claimed purified ideal.

On 5/24/2015 the leading Sunni Muslim religious body, al-Azhar, a prestigious seat of Islamic learning declared that the world must unite in a “battle of all humanity” to prevent the destruction of Palmyra. Seemingly sending an appeal to Da’ish, al-Azhar issued a Fatwa (religious ruling) that Islamic sharia law forbids the destruction of world heritage sites and artifacts.

Another argument being made in the USA and Lebanon to religious figures who purport to be close to Da’ish is that by allowing the safe removal of cultural heritage objects under their control, what can be achieved is that their cultural heritage can be preserved until security returns to Syria. And also that any offending depictions of ancient gods can be removed to an area which will not be offensive to Muslims while a religious decision over their status under Sharia is worked out among the Muslim community. Which is to say, preserve the antiquities for now pending a final consensus judgment by Islamic religious figures on whether the Koran truly requires cultural heritage destruction.

Some individuals and archeological groups, as well as some governments whose public position is not to pay ransom for hostages, have reportedly raised a very large sum of money, estimated at $ 100 million USD, and are trying to convince Da’ish that it’s to their economic benefit to focus on exploiting the local natural resources on the area, including oil, which offers them 90% more cash than dealing with looted cultural artifacts which are also part of their cultural heritage. Some overtures are being made to Da’ish friendly sheiks in Lebanon’s Ein el Helwe Palestinian camp and elsewhere with a number of arguments about how the jihadists and the rest of us can benefit if payments, which could be considered a kind of ‘property tax’ or Jizya, paid to Da’ish in exchange for preserving cultural heritage in areas under jihadist control. Safe passage is being promised by two Ein el Helwe Palestinian camp based religious figures, for an American international lawyer, were the Syrian government to agree, to visit with Da’ish leaders in Palmyra to present the case. It could theoretically include setting up an international safe-zone for Syria’s irreplaceable global heritage treasures.

A related idea being examined with the participation of some archeologists, NGO’s and also importantly, Muslim religious figures, is to establish, hopefully without Da’ish objection, a “Syria Museum-in-Exile.” The international Museum would be patterned after the project of the Swiss town of Budendorf which for the past six years has been home to the “|Afghanistan Museum-in-Exile.” This museum has received more than 1,400 Afghan cultural objects from private donors and “others” and established a complete inventory of the cultural heritage artifacts by dedicated volunteer specialists. In September 2006, UNESCO agreed to a request from the Afghan Government to repatriate these objects to the restored National Museum of Afghanistan in Kabul. Syria, the advocates argue, could benefit from the same type of safe repository during this turbulent unpredictable period.

One particularly bizarre argument which might be making Da;ish dizzy, is being made in Raqqa by suspected foreign agents posing as pro-Da’ish Sheiks (!). Their reported argument is that the Zionist regime occupying Palestine also wants Palmyra destroyed so why not partner with them for mutual Israeli and Da’ish benefit.

This hard to verify pretty strange report cites Rabbi Nir Ben Artzi as its author. These days Rabbi Nir is busy preaching that “God has sent Da’ish to fight against nations that want to destroy Israel. You are our brothers!” The Rabbi reads passages from the Torah while preaching that Palmyra has absolutely no value whatsoever to Islam, Christianity or even to ISIS as an ‘Islamic group.” Rather, he insists, “it only holds tremendous significance for the Jews and Judaism.” Accordingly, Rabbi Ben Artzi insists that the key to understanding why the ruins of this ancient pearl of the desert have become a sacred target by “religious allies” rests in Jewish sacred texts which he cites as follows:

“The day on which Tadmor (Palmyra) is destroyed will be made a holiday” (Yeb. 16b-17a).

“Happy will he be who shall see the downfall of Tadmor” (Yer. Ta’an. iv. 8)

“The future destruction of Palmyra will be a day of rejoicing for Israel” (Yev. 17a).

What Da’ish will decide with respect to all the petitions it is receiving these days as it considers its own political interests may be known soon based on recent jihadist actions.

Meanwhile, it is worthwhile to bear in mind UN Resolution 2199 adopted by the Security Council on 2/12/2015 stating “that countries ensure that their nationals and those in their territories not make assets or economic resources available to ISIL (Da;ish) and related terrorist groups ” and “Condemning the destruction of cultural heritage in Syria, particularly by ISIL (Da’ish) and the Al-Nusrah Front.” As well as the unanimously passed (5/27/2015) 193-nation UN General Assembly which is to date the broadest international condemnation of the cultural destruction and vandalism wrought by the fighters of the Islamic State (Da’ish). The UN Resolution enacts new and long overdue measures to thwart and prosecute antiquities smugglers, ensure the return of plundered ancient treasures and counter cultural cleansing, a new tactic of war being employed to spread hatred and erase the heritage of civilizations. It also stresses the importance of holding accountable perpetrators of attacks intentionally directed against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, or historic monuments.

The post Is Islamic State Open To Deal On Palmyra? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Victoria Arnold and Felix Corley

Russia’s Ulyanovsk Regional Court has upheld the three-and-a-half-year prison term on one Muslim and the suspended prison terms on two others at hearings in May, Forum 18 News Service has learned. On his February conviction, Bagir Kazikhanov became the first reader of the works of the late Turkish Islamic theologian Said Nursi to receive a jail sentence in Russia since September 2013.

Two other criminal trials to punish individuals for exercising the right to freedom of religion or belief continue. The trial against two Muslim women accused of “extremism” continues in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, while in Taganrog in southern European Russia, the re-trial of 16 Jehovah’s Witnesses also continues (see below).

Prosecutors in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk have completed their long-running criminal case against up to twenty Muslims, all migrants from Central Asia, on “extremism” charges. The case appears likely to be presented to court soon (see below).

Three Ulyanovsk Muslims lose appeal

Three Muslims who read the works of Islamic theologian Nursi have lost their appeal against their February convictions for “extremist” activity by Ulyanovsk’s Lenin District Court. After two appeal hearings on 6 and 13 May, Judge Maksim Maksimov of Ulyanovsk Regional Court upheld the original ruling that Kazikhanov, Stepan Kudryashov and Aleksandr Melentyev met regularly in “conspiratorial gatherings”. Kazikhanov was alleged to have come to Ulyanovsk to set up a “cell” on the orders of “Nurdzhular”.

“Nurdzhular” is a banned “extremist” organisation which Russian Muslims deny exists.

All three defendants denied the charges, maintaining they had met only to discuss Islam and to attend football matches. Kazikhanov, who was detained in police custody until the appeal hearings, was sentenced in February to three and a half years’ imprisonment for “organisation of extremist activity”, the first known person to be sentenced since lengthened prison terms under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 were introduced in February 2014. He was also the first reader of Nursi’s books since September 2013 to receive a jail sentence.

Kudryashov and Melentyev were convicted under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2, of the lesser offence of “Participation in the activity of a social or religious association or other organisation in relation to which a court has adopted a decision legally in force on liquidation or ban on the activity in connection with the carrying out of extremist activity”. They both received suspended sentences, Kudryashov of two years, and Melentyev 20 months.

The whereabouts of a fourth man, Farkhad Allakhverdiyev, who was also charged under Article 282.2, Part 2, are unknown and he is being sought by law-enforcement agencies.

All three sentences will be reduced by the length of time the defendants spent in custody and under house arrest before their initial trial.

Senior Assistant Prosecutor Vasily Zima of the Regional Prosecutor’s Office told Forum 18 on 26 May that enquiries should be directed to the FSB security service. Reached by Forum 18 on the same day, a spokesman for Ulyanovsk Region’s FSB maintained that he could not answer questions about the case.

Despite avoiding imprisonment, Kudryashov and Melentyev will remain on probation for long periods – Kudryashov for two years (reduced by time spent in custody before the trial), Melentyev for one year and 10 months – despite a sentence of one year and eight months, but also reduced by the length of his pre-trial detention. During this time, they cannot leave the city of Ulyanovsk or change their places of residence without informing the state authorities responsible for monitoring those with suspended sentences.

Kazikhanov, Kudryashov, Melentyev, and Allakhverdiyev all appear on the Federal Financial Monitoring Service (Rosfinmonitoring) list of “terrorists and extremists” whose assets banks are obliged to freeze.

Krasnoyarsk trial for running “Nurdzhular women’s cell” continues

The criminal trial in Krasnoyarsk of Yelena Gerasimova and Tatyana Guzenko, accused of running a “Nurdzhular women’s cell”, has encountered further complications. Because of her frequent absences at hearings in Soviet District Court, Gerasimova was placed on the Interior Ministry’s federal “Wanted Database” and separate proceedings opened against her.

Gerasimova had not been attending court because she was pregnant, a fellow Muslim told Forum 18 on 14 April. She has since been removed from the Wanted Database and her case sent to Magistrate’s Court No. 79.

Telephones at the Magistrate’s Court went unanswered whenever Forum 18 called on 26 and 27 May. Forum 18 sent a request for information by email mid-afternoon of Krasnoyarsk’s working day on 26 May. No answer has yet been received.

The case against the two women under Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of extremist activity”) began with a preliminary hearing at Soviet District Court on 27 November 2014, having been passed around the Krasnoyarsk court system for the previous six months. Since then, all 25 hearings have been adjourned except for one on 18 February. The latest took place on 26 May.

The trial follows August 2013 raids by “Anti-extremism” Police and the FSB security service on Gerasimova’s and Guzenko’s flats as the families celebrated the major end-of-Ramadan festival Eid-ul-Fitr. Gerasimova’s home was searched for five hours and the family’s guests were not permitted to leave. Gerasimova (who is a lawyer) noted a number of procedural violations.

So far, Gerasimova and Guzenko’s names have not been added to the Rosfinmonitoring list of “terrorists and extremists”.

Taganrog re-trial of 16 Jehovah’s Witnesses continues

After multiple delays, the re-trial of 16 Jehovah’s Witnesses charged with “continuing the activities of an extremist organisation” after their community was dissolved in 2009 began on 18 March at Taganrog City Court. There have been 10 hearings so far, and a further six adjournments because of a defendant’s illness or for “other reasons”, according the court website. The next hearing is due to take place on 27 May.

The 2009 liquidation of the Taganrog Jehovah’s Witness community as allegedly “extremist” was used to justify banning all Jehovah’s Witness activity in the city, a ban subsequently upheld by the Supreme Court.

The Samara and Abinsk Jehovah’s Witness communities have also been liquidated as “extremist”. Both the Taganrog and Samara Jehovah’s Witness communities appear on the Federal Financial Monitoring Service (Rosfinmonitoring) list of “terrorist and extremist” organisations and the list of banned “extremist” organisations on the Justice Ministry website.

Four of the 16 Taganrog Jehovah’s Witnesses were in July 2014 convicted under both Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 1 (“Organisation of extremist activity”) and Article 150, Part 4 (“Involving a minor in the commission of a crime”). Another three were convicted under Criminal Code Article 282.2, Part 2 of the lesser offence of participation in “extremist” activity and the remaining nine people were acquitted. The “crime” of those convicted was to continue to meet together for prayer and Bible study.

After the August 2014 convictions of those convicted of meeting together in Taganrog for prayer and Bible study, they appealed to Rostov Regional Court. At the Rostov appeal hearings on 11 and 12 December 2014, both convictions and acquittals were overturned and the case sent back for re-examination.

Up to 20 Muslims to be tried in Novosibirsk

Up to 20 Muslims in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk are to be tried for involvement in banned “extremist” organisation Tabligh Jamaat. The defendants were “apparently intimidated and forced to give evidence that they are members of a cell, although it is unlikely they really understand this”, Yuliya Zhemchugova, the lawyer for Tajik citizen Kamolitdin Rakhmanov, told Forum 18 on 23 May. She and Rakhmanov are now disputing his guilt. He remains under travel restrictions until the case comes to court.

The men, all immigrants from Central Asia, were charged under Article 282.2, Part 2, of the Criminal Code (“Participation .. in extremist activity”). It is unclear exactly what they were doing and how they attracted the attention of law enforcement agencies. The FSB security service accuses them of running a “cell” of Tabligh Jamaat since 2005, recruiting new members and holding regular seminars using banned religious literature.

None of the men pursued any extremist purpose, according to Rakhmanov’s lawyer. Rakhmanov maintains that they met only to read the Koran and pray – “like all devout Muslims, to study Islam”, Zhemchugova insisted to Forum 18.

Rakhmanov was expelled from Russia in 2012 for involvement in Tabligh Jamaat and banned from returning for five years, according to the Interfax news agency on 5 November 2013, citing unidentified “law-enforcement sources”. He allegedly re-entered the country on a fake passport in early 2013 and has also been charged under Criminal Code Article 322, Part 2 (“Illegal crossing of state borders”).

The “extremism” charges are “based only on the fact that an expert analysis of conversations between the men.. indicates that they belong to the organisation Tabligh Jamaat”, the lawyer Zhemchugova told Forum 18, but, “according to the findings of the same examination there were no signs of extremism in these communications”. Forum 18 has been unable to find out who recorded these conversations and how.

In a series of raids in November 2013, law enforcement agents found copies of Abu Zakaiya’s “Gardens of the Righteous”, the Bulugh al-Maram (a collection of hadith), Elmir Kuliyev’s “The Way to the Koran”, and Abd ar-Rahman al-Saadi’s “Interpretation of the Holy Koran” in the men’s possession.

“Gardens of the Righteous” and “The Way to the Koran” were banned by Lenin District Court in Orenburg on 21 March 2012. However, on 27 February 2015 Orenburg Regional Court overturned this ruling in respect of both books and 48 other Islamic texts. Neither the Bulugh al-Maram nor al-Saadi’s “Interpretation” appears on the Federal List of Extremist Materials.

The FSB also claims to have found copies of “The Values of Tabligh”, and “Fazail Amali” by Sheik Muhammad Zakariya Kandahlawi. These were banned respectively by Abakan City Court (Khakassiya Republic) on 11 August 2009 and Sol-Iletsk District Court (Orenburg Region) on 20 April 2010.

Tabligh Jamaat

Tabligh Jamaat was outlawed in Russia as “extremist” by a Supreme Court ruling of 7 May 2009. Unlike the similar ban on the alleged “Nurdzhular” organisation, the Tabligh Jamaat ban is justified with claims that its associates in Russia have been linked to violent acts “have called [in sermons] for the violent seizure of power and [made] statements aimed at inciting national, racial, and religious hatred”.

Worldwide, Tabligh Jamaat aims to revive and strengthen the faith of Muslims and has no formal membership. Its associates spend significant periods of time travelling and preaching in mosques to spread their message. Women are encouraged to share their Islamic beliefs with other women and are required to practice complete seclusion and segregation in everyday life. Tabligh Jamaat’s loose internal structure means that people associated with it have different views in different parts of the world. In some countries people associated with it peacefully exercise their freedom of religion or belief, yet in other countries people associated with it have been linked to violent acts.

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In the past few months several EU politicians have been denied entry when arriving at the Russian border, the EU External Affairs Office said Saturday, adding that Russian authorities have justified these refusals by referring to the inclusion of these individuals on a confidential “stop list”.

An EU spokesperson said in a statement that, “After each of these refusals, the EU and the Member States whose nationals were affected had repeatedly requested transparency about the content of this list.”

The EU said that the list with 89 names has now been shared by the Russian authorities.

“We don’t have any other information on legal basis, criteria and process of this decision,” the EU spokesperson said, adding. We consider this measure as totally arbitrary and unjustified, especially in the absence of any further clarification and transparency.”

“We are keeping in close contact with the Member States involved,” the statement concluded

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Addressing the United Nations Security Council Ministerial briefing on foreign terrorist fighters, INTERPOL Secretary General Jürgen Stock said countries need to ‘share even more information, and share it even better’.

The INTERPOL Chief told the high-level meeting that more countries are realizing that sharing via INTERPOL represents an opportunity, not a risk, which in turn enables the world police body to more closely monitor the threat as it evolves.

“Increased pressure to restrict foreign terrorist fighter mobility is already producing changes in tactics,” said Secretary General Stock, adding that INTERPOL projects ‘broken travel’ – where individuals move between several countries in non-consecutive legs before reaching their final destination – to become a more frequent feature, with an increase in facilitation networks as opposed to self-organization.

Mr Stock said other emerging patterns include a growing number of recruits with criminal records, especially from Europe, and the active domestic terrorism role played by some suspects who had been prevented from travelling abroad.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said member states have to enhance their cooperation and exchange information, develop effective border controls and strengthen their criminal justice systems, in accordance with the rule of law and human rights standards.

Chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee, Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaité of Lithuania, which organized the briefing as part of their Security Council presidency, said priorities identified by the committee included the centralized and coordinated exchange of law enforcement information at the national level.

Underlining INTERPOL’s unique global reach in law enforcement coordination, Secretary General Stock highlighted the ability of each its 190 member countries to choose with whom they share information.

He added where successful interventions by INTERPOL member countries had been achieved, they embodied two elements of success; the secure sharing of information on foreign fighters through INTERPOL, and access to that information at the frontlines.

“The ease, speed and reach of the foreign terrorist fighters converging onto Syria and Iraq showed the threat was unprecedented almost from the outset,” said Mr Stock.

“Withholding information within any region simply puts the rest of the world at risk. Intelligence is crossing borders, but at a much slower pace than foreign terrorist fighters,” added the Secretary General.

Mr Stock said with support from the United Nations Security Council in mobilizing member states’ resources, all major border posts surrounding the conflict zone could achieve systematic screening capacity.

“INTERPOL stands ready to act in order to turn this vision into reality, together with our partners,” concluded Secretary General Stock.

A Security Council Presidential statement issued at the end of the meeting called on member states to increase reporting of information to, and use of INTERPOL’s databases to help identify, monitor or prevent the transit of foreign terrorist fighters.

The Security Council also called on the international community to strengthen INTERPOL’s capabilities and to develop capacity building assistance to facilitate broader use of its secure communications network and increased reporting to the Stolen and Lost Travel Documents database

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By Kristin Archick and Paul Belkin*

Terrorist Attacks in Europe and Mounting Security Concerns

European concerns about Islamist terrorism have been heightened considerably by recent attacks in France and Denmark. In early January 2015, gunmen killed 17 people over several days in three related incidents that targeted the Paris headquarters of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, police officers, and a kosher supermarket. The perpetrators of the attacks were French-born Muslims, with possible ties to Al Qaeda in Yemen or the Islamic State terrorist organization. In mid-February 2015, a Danish-born citizen of Palestinian descent murdered two individuals—one at a Copenhagen cafe that had been hosting a free speech debate, another at a synagogue—and wounded five police officers.

These incidents—along with the May 2014 killing of four people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels, Belgium, reportedly by a French Muslim who had spent a year with Islamist fighters in Syria—have reinforced growing unease throughout Europe about the possible threats posed by European Muslims fighting with extremist groups, especially in Syria and Iraq. Security services warn about the potential danger such trained militants might pose if and when they return to Europe, and worry about those, like the suspected Danish gunman, who may be inspired by Islamist extremist propaganda to commit “lone wolf” attacks at home without ever traveling abroad.

Although it is difficult to assess the precise number of Muslims from Europe who have joined extremist groups in Syria and Iraq, European officials believe that their ranks have increased significantly over the past two years. Recent estimates from Europol, the European Union’s (EU’s) joint criminal intelligence body, suggest that at least 3,000 and upward of 5,000 EU citizens have left to fight in Syria, Iraq, or other conflict zones. A January 2015 study by the London-based International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation indicates that up to 4,000 individuals from Western Europe have become foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq. Key countries of origin reportedly include Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The conflict in Syria and Iraq has also attracted fighters from the Balkans (especially Bosnia, Kosovo, and Albania) and Russia.

European Policy Responses

European governments have employed a range of measures, including increasing surveillance and prohibiting travel, to combat the potential foreign fighter threat. Individuals suspected of planning travel to Syria or Iraq—or recruiting others to do so—have been arrested in several countries (including Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom) on terrorism charges. France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom have enforced rules that permit the confiscation of passports or travel identification documents. Other European governments are considering new legislation to permit prosecuting those who travel or attempt to travel abroad for terrorist purposes, as required by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2178. European officials are also seeking to more aggressively counter radicalization and extremist propaganda, especially via the Internet and social media. Some have called on U.S. technology companies to assist these efforts by preemptively removing terrorist content from their sites.

France, which is home to Europe’s largest Muslim population (about 5-6 million) and the source of the largest number of European fighters in Syria and Iraq (about 1,400), has been at the forefront of European efforts to counter the threat posed by Islamist militants and returning fighters. In 2014, the government took steps to strengthen counterterrorism policies already considered some of the most stringent in Europe. These included imposing travel bans on individuals suspected of seeking terrorist training abroad and blocking websites that encourage terrorism. After the Paris attacks, French authorities announced additional significant measures, such as hiring 2,500 new law enforcement officials and boosting counter-radicalization programs, especially in French prisons.

Nevertheless, stemming the flow of European fighters to Syria and Iraq and keeping track of those who go and return remains challenging. Prosecuting individuals preemptively is difficult in many European countries because most existing laws require a high level of proof that a suspect has actually engaged in terrorism abroad or has returned to commit a terrorist act. Furthermore, as the attacks in France demonstrate, even those governments with far-reaching legal authority to detain terrorist suspects have been challenged to identify and monitor a growing number of potential assailants. Given budgetary and personnel resource constraints, experts assert that it may be unrealistic to expect governments to effectively monitor every individual identified as a possible security threat.

Analysts assert that more steps must also be taken at the EU level to better combat the potential foreign fighter threat given the EU’s largely open internal borders (which permit individuals to travel without passport checks among most European countries). In February 2015, EU leaders reiterated the need for enhancing information-sharing among national and EU authorities, strengthening external border controls, and improving existing counter-radicalization efforts, particularly online. However, implementation of some of these initiatives and other possible EU-wide measures—such as harmonizing criminal laws against “jihadi travel” among the EU’s 28 member states—could be impeded by national sovereignty concerns, long-standing law enforcement barriers to sharing sensitive information, and civil liberty protections.

Pressure has also increased to approve an EU-wide system for the collection of airline Passenger Name Record (PNR) data, which has been stalled in the European Parliament—a key EU institution—since 2013 because of data privacy and protection concerns. In mid-February 2015, the European Parliament passed a resolution on anti-terrorism measures and pledged to work toward finalizing the EU-wide PNR proposal by the end of the year. A revised PNR proposal was presented in the Parliament on February 26, but observers caution that some Parliamentarians still worry that it could infringe too much on data privacy rights and may seek to link approval to progress on broader EU data protection reforms.

U.S. Interests

U.S. officials, including some Members of Congress, have expressed particular worries about the growing number of Europeans fighting with Islamist extremist groups abroad because the U.S. Visa Waiver Program allows short-term, visa-free travel between the United States and most European countries. In the 113th Congress, several pieces of legislation were introduced on the VWP, ranging from proposals to limit or suspend the program to those that sought to enhance the VWP’s security controls further (one proposal, H.R. 158, has been reintroduced in the 114th Congress). U.S. policymakers contend that the foreign fighter phenomenon underscores the importance of maintaining close U.S.-EU counterterrorism cooperation and existing U.S.-EU information-sharing agreements, despite increased scrutiny from the EU following the unauthorized disclosures of classified U.S. surveillance activities since June 2013. U.S. officials have also encouraged the EU to establish its own PNR system and to make greater use of existing EU-wide databases and information-sharing tools.

*About the authors:
Kristin Archick, Specialist in European Affairs (karchick@crs.loc.gov, 7-2668)
Paul Belkin, Analyst in European Affairs (pbelkin@crs.loc.gov, 7-0220)

Source:
This article was published by the Congressional Research Service as CRS Insights (PDF).

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By Adam Dick

Privacy advocates looking forward to an end of the Unites States government’s mass surveillance program due to the looming sunset of PATRIOT Act section 215 may do well to shelve their Champagne bottles. Judge Andrew Napolitano, in a Fox News interview on Wednesday, presented his grim assessment that the US National Security Agency (NSA) snooping would continue even absent the section 215 authority.

Napolitano, a Ron Paul Institute Advisory Board member, says in the interview that the US government is lying to the American people with the claim that the mass surveillance would be suspended upon the expiration of the PATRIOT Act provision used to justify the mass surveillance program. Instead, Napolitano explains the snooping will continue reliant on two other legal justifications. Napolitano states:

There are two other provisions in the law that the NSA relies on which will cause it to continue to spy on Americans even if section 215 of the PATRIOT Act does expire. One of those is a section of the FISA law called section 702, and one of them is a still-existing executive order signed by President George W. Bush in the fall or 2001, which has not been tinkered with, interfered with, or rescinded.

Watch here Napolitano’s full explanation as well as a passionate concluding commentary by show host Shepard Smith:

Meanwhile, the potential of section 215 of the PATRIOT Act expiring is being used to push through the US Congress the USA FREEDOM Act that will give the mass surveillance program a new legal framework just as the old legal framework provided in the PATRIOT Act is coming under greater judicial scrutiny.

The “reform” USA FREEDOM Act (act two of PATRIOT Act sponsor Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI)) has passed in the House and is available for consideration in the Senate. But, the failure of the new bill to end or even significantly restrict the mass spying program has become increasingly evident. If Congress does not send to President Barack Obama the USA FREEDOM Act in its current form or a simple extension of set to expire PATRIOT Act provisions soon, expect an effort to quickly push through Congress a “new and improved” USA FREEDOM Act.

There will be much bluster about an “improved” USA FREEDOM ACT — a pig with lipstick — striking the right balance to protect both liberty and security. But, as with the PATRIOT Act 14 years ago, national security state special interests will control the tinkering behind the scenes, and the American people will learn what was wrought only after the bill passes.

This article was published by the RonPaul Institute.

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More than a week after it was reported that live anthrax had been shipped to various parts of the US, the Defense Department said it is launching a comprehensive review of its laboratory procedures, processes, and protocols associated with inactivating spore-forming anthrax.

According to a DoD press release, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work on Friday ordered the review after consulting with Defense Secretary Ash Carter, the release said.

No Risk to the General Public

There is no known risk to the general public and an extremely low risk to lab workers from the department’s inadvertent shipments of inactivated samples containing small numbers of live anthrax to several laboratories, according to the release.

As of now, 24 laboratories in 11 states and two foreign countries are believed to have received suspect samples, the release said.

The department is working closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who is leading the ongoing investigation pursuit to its statutory authorities, the release said.

The department will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates to the public, the release said.

In addition to the CDC review, Work ordered all DoD laboratories that have these materials to test all previously inactivated spore-forming anthrax in the inventory, the release said.

DoD also is advising labs that received inactive anthrax from the department to stop working with those samples until further instruction from the DoD and CDC, the release said.

Work directed Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Frank Kendall to lead a comprehensive review of DoD laboratory procedures, processes, and protocols associated with inactivating anthrax, according to the release.

The DoD review, the release said, will consist of: Root cause analysis for the incomplete inactivation of anthrax; DoD laboratory biohazard safety procedures and protocols;  Laboratory adherence to established procedures and protocols; and Identification of systemic problems and the steps necessary to fix those problems.

After the CDC investigation is complete, the department will conduct its own investigation with respect to any apparent lapses in performance and ensure appropriate accountability, the release said.

The department takes this matter very seriously and is acting with urgency to address this matter, the release said.

Work expects review findings within 30 days, the release said.

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The federal government, including the Department of Defense, is leading by example to ensure that lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender citizens “are judged by the quality of their work, not by who they love,” President Barack Obama said in his statement issued today proclaiming June as National Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Pride Month.

The president’s proclamation reads as follows:

From the moment our Nation first came together to declare the fundamental truth that all men are created equal, courageous and dedicated patriots have fought to refine our founding promise and broaden democracy’s reach. Over the course of more than two centuries of striving and sacrifice, our country has expanded civil rights and enshrined equal protections into our Constitution. Through struggle and setback, we see a common trajectory toward a more free and just society. But we are also reminded that we are not truly equal until every person is afforded the same rights and opportunities — that when one of us experiences discrimination, it affects all of us — and that our journey is not complete until our lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law.

Across our Nation, tremendous progress has been won by determined individuals who stood up, spoke out, and shared their stories. Earlier this year, because of my landmark Executive Order on LGBT workplace discrimination, protections for Federal contractors went into effect, guarding against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. The Federal Government is now leading by example, ensuring that our employees and contractors are judged by the quality of their work, not by who they love. And I will keep calling on the Congress to pass legislation so that all Americans are covered by these protections, no matter where they work.

In communities throughout the country, barriers that limit the potential of LGBT Americans have been torn down, but too many individuals continue to encounter discrimination and unfair treatment. My Administration supports efforts to ban the use of conversion therapy for minors because the overwhelming scientific evidence demonstrates that it can cause substantial harm. We understand the unique challenges faced by sexual and gender minorities — especially transgender and gender non-conforming individuals — and are taking steps to address them. And we recognize that families come in many shapes and sizes. Whether biological, foster, or adoptive, family acceptance is an important protective factor against suicide and harm for LGBTQ youth, and mental health experts have created resources to support family communication and involvement.

For countless young people, it is not enough to simply say it gets better; we must take action too. We continue to address bullying and harassment in our classrooms, ensuring every student has a nurturing environment in which to learn and grow. Across the Federal Government, we are working every day to unlock the opportunities all LGBT individuals deserve and the resources and care they need. Too many LGBT youth face homelessness and too many older individuals struggle to find welcoming and affordable housing; that is why my Administration is striving to ensure they have equal access to safe and supportive housing throughout life. We are updating our National HIV/AIDS Strategy to better address the disproportionate burden HIV has on communities of gay and bisexual men and transgender women. We continue to extend family and spousal benefits to legally married same-sex couples. And because we know LGBT rights are human rights, we are championing protections and support for LGBT persons around the world.

All people deserve to live with dignity and respect, free from fear and violence, and protected against discrimination, regardless of their gender identity or sexual orientation. During Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Pride Month, we celebrate the proud legacy LGBT individuals have woven into the fabric of our Nation, we honor those who have fought to perfect our Union, and we continue our work to build a society where every child grows up knowing that their country supports them, is proud of them, and has a place for them exactly as they are.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim June 2015 as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Pride Month. I call upon the people of the United States to eliminate prejudice everywhere it exists, and to celebrate the great diversity of the American people.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of May, in the year of our Lord two thousand fifteen, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and thirty-ninth.

BARACK OBAMA

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